[HN Gopher] AT&T's predictions of the future (1993)
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       AT&T's predictions of the future (1993)
        
       Author : danielam
       Score  : 33 points
       Date   : 2023-01-03 19:57 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.youtube.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.youtube.com)
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | They failed to predict that in the year 2022 all voice calls will
       | be mutually unintelligible.
        
       | petilon wrote:
       | If you were to make an ad like that today, what would your
       | predictions be?
        
         | elsonrodriguez wrote:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs
        
         | entwife wrote:
         | Vaccines that cure cancer.
        
         | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
         | Conversational interfaces. I don't think GPT is taking us to
         | the singularity any time soon, but I do think it's pretty
         | strong evidence we can go a lot further with conversational
         | interfaces.
        
       | taftster wrote:
       | These are really good ads. I remember watching them as a younger
       | person, not realizing how profound or accurate they were.
       | 
       | But of course, it's also interesting to compare it to the actual
       | world we live today. The most notable thing is the unification of
       | all these futuristic ideas into a single platform, the modern day
       | smart phone.
       | 
       | What I see in the AT&T ads are seemingly all different individual
       | devices operating with various independent protocols and support
       | infrastructure. There's a commonality that AT&T is getting at,
       | the early internet, but the devices themselves were never
       | imagined as a single platform. A video screen in a phone booth,
       | for example.
       | 
       | These ads remind me that the iphone (and other smartphone brands)
       | have so fundamentally changed the way we live in just 2 decades.
       | AT&T might have had some to do with our world, but I don't think
       | anyone could really see it or execute the way Steve Jobs could.
        
         | stuart78 wrote:
         | I think the other element is a move from hardware to software.
         | The zoom calls that replace the video phone booth are not just
         | iPhones, but also conference rooms, computers, iPads.
         | Smartphones bring all these solutions together, but the variety
         | of ways to engage on such a wide variety of platforms is just
         | as transformative.
        
         | brewdad wrote:
         | While certainly there is an element of the "unknowable"
         | unknowns that led to the singualar device dominating so many of
         | these predictions, I have to also think that some of the
         | examples are used to make these future scenarios relatable to
         | the 1993 present uses.
         | 
         | For example, I can't imagine anyone at AT&T forward thinking
         | enough to envision sending business communications from the
         | beach thought we would be sending literal faxes.
        
       | casey2 wrote:
       | Right about everything except AT&T being the company that will
       | bring it to you. OOF
        
         | danielrhodes wrote:
         | They weren't wrong. They are one of the biggest cell carriers,
         | backbone, and broadband providers. I'm not sure what role they
         | imagine they would take, but it is similar to the role they
         | have had in the past.
        
       | maupin wrote:
       | Without seeing the ads, I can still recall the music.
        
       | smm11 wrote:
       | I was researching a thing called Polymer Flexible Circuits at
       | this same time - those I spoke to talked of a future with all
       | this sort of stuff and more. One guy said he was working on
       | 'circuit' that would be small enough to carry in a pocket, then
       | fold out to have a larger presentation surface for words and
       | images.
       | 
       | It's worth noting that AT&T was the exclusive carrier for the
       | first iPhone.
        
         | elsonrodriguez wrote:
         | > It's worth noting that AT&T was the exclusive carrier for the
         | first iPhone.
         | 
         | That was a happy accident due to the acquisition of Cingular by
         | AT&T
        
           | giantrobot wrote:
           | Which was just AT&T Wireless' re-brand. Which sucked for me.
           | I had moved to T-Mobile from AT&T due to their shitty
           | service. Then Apple gave all full-time employees an iPhone
           | the summer of its release. I had to go back to AT&^H^H^H
           | Cingular in order to use the phone. Back into the cold
           | embrace of AT&T's crappy service and support.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Related. Others? Don't miss the June 2010 thread
       | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1444866), which has great
       | comments from Bell Labs people
       | 
       |  _"You Will", AT &T's ad campaign (1993) [video]_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25829007 - Jan 2021 (2
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _AT &T 1993 "You Will" Ads [video]_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19504544 - March 2019 (100
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _AT &T's 1993 "You Will" ads were remarkably accurate_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11246081 - March 2016 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _AT &T's "You Will" (1993)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9415693 - April 2015 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _AT &T's predictions of 2014 in 1994 were surprisingly accruate_
       | - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6972473 - Dec 2013 (3
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _AT &T 1993-1994 'You Will' Ad campaign [video]_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6871467 - Dec 2013 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _AT &T nailed the future, in 1993_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5373689 - March 2013 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _AT &T You Will Ads From 1993 - Amazingly accurate predictions_
       | - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2068344 - Jan 2011 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _AT &T 1993 "You Will" Ads_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1444866 - June 2010 (39
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _AT &T's 1993 "You Will" Ads (excellent foresight) [vid]_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=503709 - March 2009 (1
       | comment)
        
       | xseparator wrote:
       | These ads are pretty much directly responsible for inspiring me
       | to work in this new Internet thing after graduating college in
       | 1995. That and Wired magazine.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | kube-system wrote:
       | It's somehow sad that they got everything so perfectly right
       | except "the company that'll bring it to you".
        
         | drewg123 wrote:
         | I came here to say exactly that.
         | 
         | However, in one sense of the word, we do owe a _lot_ of the
         | modern tech stack to ATT. Between their invention of
         | transistors, and their invention of UNIX, they do form the
         | basis of the modern tech stack that all these inventions depend
         | on.
         | 
         | (and yes, I know we're not running AT&T UNIX, but BSD was
         | derived from it, and Linux / Minix etc were inspired by UNIX).
        
           | kube-system wrote:
           | No doubt. But it's just even more ironic that other people
           | took the phone company's technology to build the phone
           | company's vision just shows how much they squandered their
           | potential. Cash cows really are a death knell for progress.
        
         | taftster wrote:
         | Right. That's fascinating, isn't it.
         | 
         | @dang's link to the June 2010 comments[1] tells the story:
         | 
         |  _> Bell Labs was upset because AT &T made those commercials
         | without consulting us. A PR company thought up all the ideas.
         | We had zero projects internally working on such products._
         | 
         | So the PR firm (probably just a single person at the firm) was
         | obviously quite visionary. I wonder who that person was and if
         | they ever surfaced at another company that was actually able to
         | bring some of these ideas forward.
         | 
         | It could just be like writing science fiction, and those ideas
         | felt so futuristic that they weren't expected to actually come
         | to pass. But man, give credit to those ideas, because almost
         | all of them came true pretty close to the ad's depiction.
         | 
         | It's one thing to write science fiction that is so outlandish
         | that we know it's not even likely in our life spans (Star Trek,
         | etc.). But it's quite another thing to write some sort of
         | "fiction" that is just right on the boundary of plausible and
         | achievable within a decade or two.
         | 
         | Those people that can see 10-20 years in the future, they're
         | the ones I'm jealous of. That's a talent that I just don't
         | have.
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1444866
        
           | KerrAvon wrote:
           | Heinlein said something to the effect that predicting gadgets
           | was easy -- societal changes hard.
        
           | huijzer wrote:
           | The ideas were based on demo's that existed at the time
           | according to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1445816.
        
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