[HN Gopher] Breaking RSA with a quantum computer?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Breaking RSA with a quantum computer?
        
       Author : barathr
       Score  : 121 points
       Date   : 2023-01-03 18:15 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.schneier.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.schneier.com)
        
       | emptybits wrote:
       | "And there's the nagging question of why the Chinese government
       | didn't classify this research"
       | 
       | Would like to hear informed thoughts on any state's pros and cons
       | of sharing such obviously weaponizable discoveries.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | johncessna wrote:
         | As a guess, if you're the only one who knows about this, it's
         | one hell of a zero day. Once used though, the cat is out of the
         | bag and industry will race to patch it. Yes, it'll take time.
         | 
         | If I were a country who could easily just drop bombs on people
         | to cause destruction, then I'd rather leak something that I
         | have no defense against in the hopes it gets patched rather
         | than save it as a tool to use.
        
           | kadoban wrote:
           | There is more to diplomacy and war than destruction. If you
           | can read your adversary's private messages, you can do a lot
           | better than blowing their shit up.
        
       | matthewdgreen wrote:
       | This is not my area, but I wanted to mention this before
       | speculation got out of control: some quick feedback from
       | colleagues is that the analysis in this paper seems to assume
       | Schnorr's claims from 2021 [0] without detailed supporting
       | evidence that these claims are true for large parameters like the
       | ones needed to factor RSA-2048. But these claims are viewed
       | skeptically, and this paper doesn't provide much evidence to
       | change that.
       | 
       | [0] https://eprint.iacr.org/2021/933
        
       | TacticalCoder wrote:
       | > A group of Chinese researchers have just published a paper
       | claiming that they can--although they have not yet done so--break
       | 2048-bit RSA.
       | 
       | If a quantum computer can break 2048-bit RSA, what about elliptic
       | curves?
        
         | TillE wrote:
         | Elliptic curves are also vulnerable to Shor's algorithm.
         | However, there are several new algorithms for asymmetric
         | cryptography, such as Google's NewHope:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIST_Post-Quantum_Cryptography...
        
       | itcrowd wrote:
       | Huge, if true. However, many such claims have surfaced before and
       | turned out to be dudds.
       | 
       | For now, I am taking it with a spoon of salt but with an interest
       | of any follow-ups and peer review.
        
         | gfaster wrote:
         | In an update on the article, it reveals that it relies on an
         | algorithm that breaks down with larger N for an unknown reason.
         | 
         | It seems like we're safe for now.
        
         | barathr wrote:
         | Yeah, I think this is a sign that while, as the post notes,
         | it's not clear that this is a 100% airtight paper/algorithm,
         | there are major advancements happening in this space.
        
       | gronky_ wrote:
       | You divide the number of physical qubits by 5 to get the number
       | of fault tolerant error corrected qubits. [0]
       | 
       | If their algorithm works, they need a 1860 (372*5) qubit computer
       | to break 2048 bit RSA.
       | 
       | IBM expects to get there by 2025. [1]
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-
       | qubit_error_correcting_co...
       | 
       | [1] https://www.ibm.com/quantum/roadmap
        
         | greggarious wrote:
         | What practical things can be done once RSA is broken?
        
           | quotemstr wrote:
           | Decrypt decades of pre-PFS archived encrypted internet
           | traffic.
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | Breaking RSA is a practical thing.
           | 
           | E.g. forge email (most dkim keys are 1024 bit rsa). Break ssh
           | (depends on key algo chose). Break pgp (depending on
           | settings). Mitm https connections, Etc.
        
             | greggarious wrote:
             | So if you were going to explain it to someone who's less
             | technical, maybe saying "remove HTTPS" would be an
             | oversimplified way to explain?
             | 
             | (I don't think my contacts aren't going to know what SSH or
             | PGP is, if that helps.)
        
         | reikonomusha wrote:
         | A 5-qubit code corrects against single qubit errors. You could
         | say a factor of 5 is a _lower bound_. In more technical terms,
         | this scheme fixes all weight-1 errors.
         | 
         | More realistically [1], you'd have a factor of around 1,600 for
         | a distance-27 code.
         | 
         | [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.09749.pdf
        
         | Strilanc wrote:
         | The amount of error correction you need is more than what the
         | five qubit code provides. A more typical estimate is that you'd
         | need 1000 physical qubits per logical qubit.
         | 
         | For example, using the surface code, a back of the envelope
         | estimate would be that you need a code distance of d =
         | ln(number_of_operations). Each logical qubit will use 2d^2
         | physical qubits. So for a million operations you'd need around
         | 400 physical qubits per logical qubit and for a trillion
         | operations you'd need around 1500 physical qubits per logical
         | qubit. So, way more than 5.
         | 
         | (A major practical obstacle to using almost-anything-that-
         | isn't-the-surface-code is that the surface code has forgiving
         | connectivity and maximum-allowed-physical-noise requirements.)
        
           | gronky_ wrote:
           | So if the paper is correct then you need about a half a
           | million qubits? Is this roughly a 40x improvement on the 20M
           | qubits in 8 hours or is there more to it?
        
             | Strilanc wrote:
             | If the paper is correct then yes, it would be a huge
             | improvement in the required space even accounting for the
             | overhead of error correction.
             | 
             | Shor's algorithm requires performing a modular
             | exponentiation under superposition. For an n bit modulus
             | this requires 2n or 3n qubits of storage, plus let's say
             | 50% overhead for routing and gates. You end up needing 5n
             | to 10n logical qubits for an n bit number. So to factor a
             | 2048 bit number you'd need on the order of ten thousand
             | logical qubits. Improving that to a few hundred logical
             | qubits would be a big improvement. Also, there's fewer
             | operations so the code distance can be lower.
             | 
             | ...but don't forget that "if the paper is correct" bit.
        
         | andrewla wrote:
         | If this roadmap is accurate for the present, the types of qbits
         | here are NISQ qubits, so not useful for any sort of generalized
         | computation no matter how many they have.
         | 
         | Which is to say that Osprey has 433 qubits, so should be
         | capable of 86 fault tolerant error corrected qubits, so they
         | should be able to factor (not bothering with the math) AT LEAST
         | ONE NUMBER using Shor's algorithm, and yet they cannot.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | shockeychap wrote:
       | > Honestly, most of the paper is over my head--both the lattice-
       | reduction math and the quantum physics.
       | 
       | Yeah, that alone is impressive. Schneier led a group that wrote
       | Twofish, which was one of the AES finalists before losing
       | Rijndael.
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | It's not in fact that impressive. The math for all sorts of
         | cryptography goes over Schneier's head (as he sort of
         | infamously implied with elliptic curve, over a decade ago).
         | That's normal! Cryptographers specialize. Having a really
         | careful, fine-grained, up-to-date intuition for differential
         | cryptanalysis is crucial for designing hashes and ciphers, but
         | less so for a key exchange.
         | 
         | Not writing this to dunk on Schneier so much as to relate that
         | cryptography is specialized, and that generally there aren't a
         | lot of people that you'd expect to be ultra up on PQ key
         | exchanges _and_ modern block cryptography.
        
       | stek29 wrote:
       | HN discussion for the paper itself:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34235964
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | It's not an HN discussion if there's no discussion there.
        
       | gjsman-1000 wrote:
       | I'm surprised nobody has written a thriller yet where a new
       | mathematical algorithm is found (maybe something to do with
       | primes?), all encryption suddenly collapses, and with that we go
       | into a psuedo-apocalypse where nobody is sure whether anything is
       | authentic anymore. Banks can't share cash, ID systems are
       | useless, we've still got electricity but no functioning internet,
       | hardware root of trust is shattered...
        
         | idiotsecant wrote:
         | This is now my new favorite apocalypse.
        
         | BillSaysThis wrote:
         | They have, usually this is called a skeleton key. NCIS has done
         | at least two separate episodes with it as the MacGuffin.
        
         | claytongulick wrote:
         | All that would need to happen for this exact scenario to occur
         | would be for anyone, anywhere to find a case where P == NP. [1]
         | 
         | P !== NP is a theory that has never been proven, so it very
         | well could happen in reality.
         | 
         | This is one of those things that keeps me awake, like
         | Carrington events [2].
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
         | 
         | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
        
           | gjsman-1000 wrote:
           | Some have speculated though that P doesn't necessarily have
           | to be a short period of time. If P == NP, but P takes
           | hundreds of years to compute, we may survive.
        
           | rrjjww wrote:
           | As someone who is only vaguely familiar with the P = NP
           | problem, can someone explain to me if proving P=NP
           | automatically solves the numerous problems that can then be
           | "quickly computed" or does it simply prove there is an
           | existence of an algorithm for each problem?
           | 
           | To rephrase if this is not the case - what value does solving
           | P = NP provide?
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | There are roughly four possibilities for P = NP:
             | 
             | * P != NP. In practical terms, nothing changes.
             | 
             | * Nonconstructive case. The resulting algorithm looks
             | something like some primality test algorithms (which I'll
             | describe): essentially, if a number n is composite, then
             | there is some (X + a)^n = X^n + a in Z/nZ (X is a
             | polynomial here). If you test "enough" a's, then you can
             | prove whether n is prime or composite. A nonconstructive
             | case would mean we have a proof that you only need to test
             | poly(lg n) a's to confirm truth, without necessarily
             | telling _which_ a 's you have to test. In this world, there
             | is no practical change to problems--the proof doesn't yield
             | an effective algorithm to actually solve any NP-complete
             | problem.
             | 
             | * Combinatorial algorithm for an NP-complete problem. The
             | good example here is what has been done to prove L = SL.
             | The result is "technically" in L, but the factors in the
             | algorithm run very quickly into "more than the number of
             | atoms in the universe" phase. The goal is to find a memory-
             | less algorithm (can't use a visit stack) that can prove a
             | path between two points in an undirected graph, and it
             | turns out that you can transform the graph into another one
             | that will guarantee that you will visit every node in a
             | certain amount of time. The found result has a new graph
             | that replaces every node with more nodes than exist atoms
             | in the universe, so it technically meets the requirements
             | but is completely and totally impractical. Sometimes people
             | handwave this possibility by saying that once an algorithm
             | is found, people will find better results, but this result
             | hasn't been improved on in close to two decades.
             | 
             | * "Simple" algorithm for an NP-complete problem. This is
             | the result that really, really changes things. Once you get
             | a simple algorithm for one NP-complete problem, you can
             | generally find analogous ways to get simple algorithms for
             | other NP-complete problems. However, the research done to
             | date does suggest that this is perhaps the least likely
             | solution: looking at the "hard" instances of SAT problems,
             | it does seem that there is a certain complexity that is at
             | best reducible via some sort of combinatorical nightmare
             | construction rather than the kinds of decompositions that
             | yields "simple" algorithms.
        
             | btdmaster wrote:
             | It's only required to prove an algorithm that solves an NP-
             | complete problem exists, not find it.
             | 
             | Even if that algorithm exists and was found, it could be
             | that such an algorithm is O(n^123456789), which would not
             | break RSA in any practical sense, though it would be
             | mathematically asymptotically faster than O(2^n).
        
             | goodgoblin wrote:
             | It's been a little while - but I think it's because NP
             | problems can be converted into each other, so if you can
             | solve one of them in P you can solve all of them in P.
        
             | erik wrote:
             | If P == NP, then it could be possible that a proof would
             | show that an algorithm must exist without providing such an
             | algorithm. But that approach wouldn't be necessary,
             | actually showing an algorithm would of course also be a
             | proof.
             | 
             | > To rephrase if this is not the case - what value does
             | solving P = NP provide?
             | 
             | P vs NP is a question of enormous practical interest. But
             | it's also a very interesting question of pure mathematics.
             | A proof that P != NP, or a proof of P == NP that didn't
             | provide an algorithm would still be a huge deal in the math
             | and computer science world.
        
         | bbarnett wrote:
         | And people wonder why I don't upgrade my 1996-1998 webpages to
         | https.
         | 
         | In the end, as the world burns, I will helpfully explain how I
         | was right.
        
         | flippy_flops wrote:
         | Can a quantum computer fit in an answering machine? :)
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5bAa6gFvLs
        
         | myself248 wrote:
         | Isn't that basically implied by the ending of Sneakers (1992)?
         | 
         | It would be fun fodder for a sequel, but I feel like it'd come
         | across as histrionic disaster-porn.
        
         | bfung wrote:
         | I'd be interested to speculate how cryptocoins would fair also,
         | not that it isn't already a sh1t show XD
        
         | barathr wrote:
         | It's called Impagliazzo's Worlds Paper:
         | 
         | https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=14678868687868063...
         | 
         | A classic paper that explores what happens if various scenarios
         | come to pass. Would be worth exploring some of the updated
         | versions and fictionalizing them.
        
         | filleokus wrote:
         | Not exactly that but:
         | https://suricrasia.online/unfiction/basilisk/
        
           | timerol wrote:
           | It took me a surprisingly long time to realize that I was
           | reading fiction. The example SHA sums even do work, it's just
           | that they only start with 40 bits set to 0 (expect to require
           | 10^12 operations to generate each randomly - about a second
           | on an ANTMiner) instead of 88 0 bits (multiple weeks of the
           | full Bitcoin network to generate each randomly)
        
         | gambiting wrote:
         | In the worst possible case we just switch to the one time pad
         | encryption, which makes things inconvenient but literally can't
         | be cracked by any computer or algorithm(tldr: the length of the
         | key is as long as the length of the message, so a message can
         | decode into anything and you can't tell whether the text you
         | decoded is the right one or not). So a scenario where literally
         | _no_ encryption is available seems far fetched.
        
           | codethief wrote:
           | > we just switch to the one time pad encryption
           | 
           | "just". So how do you do the key exchange?
        
             | grogenaut wrote:
             | Email it obviously
        
             | gambiting wrote:
             | Depends on the security of the service you want to use -
             | I'd expect my bank or my email provider to send me my
             | encryption keys by a recorded letter. Hacker news can
             | probably email me their key instead.
             | 
             | Again, we're talking about some "world ending" scenario
             | that OP mentioned - where all "normal" forms of encryption
             | are already broken. If OTP is the only unbreakable
             | encryption around, them I'm sure we'd find a way to
             | distribute keys.
        
           | gleenn wrote:
           | Isn't the problem with one time pads distributing the pad?
           | Like, you would have to walk to a bank and have them hand you
           | a piece of paper... and tellers could read the paper before
           | handing it to you. So basically so ineffective in practice as
           | to be unusable?
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | so print it via pressure into the inside of a sealed
             | envelope? that's how they send me my PIN.
        
               | itcrowd wrote:
               | (not sure if replying to troll..)
               | 
               | The argument against OTP is that by securely distributing
               | the key of the same length as your message, you
               | ostensibly already have a secure messaging mechanism; why
               | would you need the OTP?
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | Well no, that's not true - a bank could issue you with a
               | one-time-pad long enough to encrypt the next 10000
               | messages with you, and use that over the years - they
               | just need to tell you which line of the key is needed to
               | decrypt your message. In that scenario you only need to
               | guarantee security for the first time the key is
               | distributed(for example a file sent to you when the
               | account is opened).
        
               | itcrowd wrote:
               | Concur. I should have stated "an argument" not "the
               | argument".
        
               | gleenn wrote:
               | So now people have to keep a piece of paper around or
               | somehow put it into some software and not lose access.
               | You're right, it would work. In reality, people can't
               | even be bothered to use a password manager or understand
               | even the most simple of new security software, let alone
               | even remember their password. That makes it completely
               | intractable as a solution.
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | I mean, the scenario being discussed here is some kind of
               | "world ending" situation where all known encryption is
               | broken. So you either do it the way I described it, or
               | you don't have any encryption whatsoever. I think under
               | those conditions people would adjust. It isn't an
               | alternative to our current arrangements.
               | 
               | Also: my bank access is done entirely through an app that
               | obscures its internal implementation. It could already be
               | using OTP and it wouldn't make any difference to me, nor
               | would I be able to tell(my point is that the user
               | wouldn't need to keep a piece of paper that they would
               | need to type in anywhere - the internal implementation of
               | tools we use every day would change, but most users
               | wouldn't even notice)
        
             | bbarnett wrote:
             | I remeber in the very early 2000s, a guy had a stopwatch
             | sized whos-it, and it kept flashing numbers on it. Updated
             | every 5 minutes.
             | 
             | Apparently, some cesium based list of numbers, again, was
             | 20 years ago.
             | 
             | Point is, it was a one time pad...
        
               | djmips wrote:
               | A Whatsit. A Thingamabob. A doohickey. I remember those -
               | people still use them I think?
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | You mean this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_SecurID
               | I'm not sure but I don't think this is OTP?
        
               | g_p wrote:
               | Indeed, they're not one-time pads - they are symmetric
               | authenticators where both sides hold the same seed, and
               | iterate a PRNG or similarly iterable function every N
               | units of time (say, 30 seconds), to give you the same new
               | output, based on the same starting seed. Think stream
               | cipher output, with an initialisation vector.
               | 
               | They are often called OTPs though (i.e. one-time
               | passcodes), just to cause confusion.
        
           | idiotsecant wrote:
           | Yes, we simply change to one time pad encryption and ...
           | distribute pre-share keys to every user on earth for every
           | service that modern civilization relies on? The failure of
           | RSA in a significant way would mean the end of modern
           | commerce, military balance of power, and the sharing of
           | information. It would be a history-altering event in the best
           | case and devolve into existential war in the worst case. OTPs
           | would do exactly zero to prevent any of that.
        
             | gambiting wrote:
             | >>OTPs would do exactly zero to prevent any of that.
             | 
             | So if it was literally the only remaining unbroken type of
             | encryption on the planet, it would have no effect? How so,
             | exactly? We would just go with no encryption whatsoever
             | rather than bear the inconvenience of distributing OTP
             | keys?
        
         | aburan28 wrote:
         | Sneakers is the thriller movie you're looking for
        
           | riffraff wrote:
           | And it's a great movie!
        
         | alberth wrote:
         | Agreed.
         | 
         | But how would the movie end?
        
           | orthecreedence wrote:
           | Cloudflare and Meta team up to invent a proprietary crypto
           | algorithm that fixes everything but routes all traffic
           | through their servers, centralizing the internet completely.
           | All speech is controlled and monitored by this new entity,
           | which receives a national security letter thereby merging it
           | with the US government for all intents and purposes, but,
           | like, you know, for our safety.
           | 
           | Nobody notices or cares what has happened, and critics are
           | met with "well it dOesN'T mATteR because they aren't using
           | the information for anything bad."
        
       | Strilanc wrote:
       | I want to contrast this paper with Shor's factoring paper [1].
       | 
       | One of the things that stands out to me about Shor's paper is how
       | meticulous he is. He is considering the various ways the
       | algorithm might fail, and proving it doesn't fail in that way.
       | For example, the algorithm starts by picking a random seed and
       | you can show that some choices of seed simply don't work. He
       | proves a lower bound on how many have to work. Also, given a
       | working seed, sometimes the quantum sampling process can
       | correctly return a useless result. He bounds how often that can
       | occur as well. He never says "I think this problem is rare so
       | it's probably fine", instead he says "this problem is at least
       | this rare therefore it is fine". Essentially the only real
       | problem not addressed by the paper was that it required
       | arbitrarily good qubits... so he went and invented quantum error
       | correction [2].
       | 
       | The paper being discussed here [3] does not strike me as
       | meticulous. It strikes me as sloppy. They are getting good
       | numbers by _hoping_ potential problems are not problems. Instead
       | of addressing the biggest potential showstoppers, they have
       | throwaway sentences like  "It should be pointed out that the
       | quantum speedup of the algorithm is unclear due to the ambiguous
       | convergence of QAOA".
       | 
       | How many shots are needed for each sample point fed into the
       | classical optimization algorithm? How many steps does the
       | optimization algorithm need? How do these scale as the problem
       | size is increased? How big are they for the largest classically
       | simulable size (RSA128 with 37 qubits according to their table)?
       | These are absolutely critical questions!... and the paper doesn't
       | satisfyingly address them.
       | 
       | Is there somewhere where I can bet money that this doesn't amount
       | to anything?
       | 
       | 1: https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9508027
       | 
       | 2:
       | https://journals.aps.org/pra/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevA.52.R2...
       | 
       | 3: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.12372
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | The difference is Shor is attempting to prove something. This
         | article is by a security researcher who cares about staying
         | ahead of threats. That is, a 10% chance that RSA-2048 was
         | broken means he's screaming about changing to -4096 or another
         | standard. Because he is trying to make security systems
         | reliable.
         | 
         | Or, to put it a different way, most papers focus on being
         | right. To many publishers, "being right" means being true in
         | what the paper is saying. In some other cases, "being right"
         | means that the action you take is correct. Trying reading it as
         | not a paper on "is RSA-2048 cracked" but "is RSA-2048 still
         | safe".
        
           | rezonant wrote:
           | It sounds like you are talking about Schneier (the blog
           | author and well known security researcher) and the parent
           | post is talking about the paper Schneier is blogging about.
           | And comparing it to another paper by a different author.
           | 
           | I don't think there was a comparison between Schneier and
           | Shor, or I missed it.
        
           | Strilanc wrote:
           | I agree that it makes sense for cryptographers to be jumpy
           | around papers claiming improvements in quantum factoring,
           | even if those papers are low quality and likely to be wrong.
           | But that doesn't mean you stop calling the papers low quality
           | and likely to be wrong.
           | 
           | I guess I'd also be a lot more sympathetic if the paper had a
           | paragraph in the abstract, or at least the intro and
           | conclusion, where they explicitly _positioned_ the paper as a
           | wild idea that could work but probably won 't but is still
           | worth considering because of the risks.
        
         | rubberband wrote:
         | Let me know if you find such a betting venue... I'll take the
         | same side.
         | 
         | I'm aware of both Microsoft and Google publishing papers
         | claiming astounding quantum feats, then later retracting them
         | (I have to assume there were similar instances with lesser
         | known companies). I think your skepticism is valid.
        
           | Strilanc wrote:
           | For the Microsoft one I'm assuming you're referring to the
           | retraction of the detection of Majoranas [1].
           | 
           | Do you have a reference for a Google quantum paper being
           | retracted? I don't recall an instance of that (disclaimer: I
           | am on the Google quantum team; my views do not represent
           | them).
           | 
           | 1: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03373-x
        
         | miga wrote:
         | It is fair to say, that in security assessment you estimate
         | lower bound on complexity of hacking.
         | 
         | Schor proved upper bound.
        
           | px43 wrote:
           | There are two cryptographers being discussed here. Peter
           | Shor, and (Claus) Peter Schnorr.
           | 
           | Neither are Schor.
        
             | rezonant wrote:
             | Shor, Schnorr, Schor and Schneier.
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | Even if this particular scheme doesn't work at scale, the writing
       | is on the wall for conventional crypto. If you are encrypting
       | data that will be at rest for more many years it's time to start
       | think about migrating to post-quantum crypto so you don't end up
       | one day discovering you're entire corpus is vulnerable.
        
         | spydum wrote:
         | I would think most encryption at rest done using AES128/256,
         | which is already quantum-resistant. It's mostly the key
         | management which is at risk due to more heavily used RSA for
         | asymmetric wrapping of keys.
        
           | brobinson wrote:
           | AES-128 is effectively AES-64 when quantum computers exist
           | which can run Grover's algorithm. That's not a huge exponent.
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | for the time being it's fine (we're a long way away from
             | having fast quantum computers where 2^64 is a significant
             | problem), and AES-256 is already widely used
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | gjsman-1000 wrote:
         | Post-quantum cryptography is not necessarily secure either. One
         | of the four finalists in a NIST competition for post-quantum
         | cryptography [SIDH] was suddenly, out of the blue, shattered
         | with an algorithm that could break it in hours on a laptop.
         | Turns out it was secure against quantum computers but insecure
         | against classical computers.
         | 
         | If you want to be safe, you might almost consider standard
         | cryptography on one of the three-remaining post-quantum
         | algorithms to be (hopefully) safer. Also this might be bad news
         | for Bitcoin in the ultra-long-term...
        
           | Grimburger wrote:
           | > If you want to be safe
           | 
           | You use post-quantum with a vetted algorithm in a hybrid
           | scheme, usually this just involves concatenation or hashing.
        
           | idiotsecant wrote:
           | It's worth noting that BTC _could_ be quantum-resistant if
           | enough of the network decided they wanted it to be.
           | Unfortunately the BTC community is famously resistant to
           | change so it wouldn 't happen until it's too late, but in a
           | rational world the problem could be fixed.
        
             | jksmith wrote:
             | Tangentially to secant, BTC community resistance is in the
             | spirit of maintaining a solid base layer that is not
             | perpetually in startup mode given stakeholder motives. Use
             | other coins for that purpose.
             | 
             | Regarding changes that still maintain or even enhance this
             | goal of long-lived store of value, I bet they'd be fine
             | with that, even if the work effort of BTC transactions
             | increased.
        
             | kmeisthax wrote:
             | Alright. Who gets to confiscate the pre-quantum keyed
             | Bitcoin? Miners or codebreakers?
        
               | Grimburger wrote:
               | SHA2 is not under threat from post-quantum computing.
               | Only the signatures used.
        
               | g_p wrote:
               | And as long as you don't re-use wallet addresses, your
               | public key is effectively not revealed until the balance
               | is zero.
               | 
               | Since your wallet address is a sha256 hash of the public
               | key, you would need to meaningfully break sha256 to be
               | able to go after a public key or generate a false
               | signature.
               | 
               | Once the public key is broadcast to spend the funds, that
               | wallet shouldn't be reused, and a new wallet address
               | should receive the change.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | There are open questions about whether any PQ algorithm is
           | truly quantum-safe, given the limits of our knowledge about
           | QC.
           | 
           | But it's also just the case that any "new" (for values of
           | "new" that include "old but never deployed at a scale
           | sufficient to attract scrutiny") encryption primitive, PQ or
           | not, stands a decent change of being breakable by a laptop,
           | at least in its initial implementation parameters. That's
           | what happened with the supersingular isogenies you're
           | referring to. That's just to say: there's nothing special
           | about the "PQ-ness" of these protocols that makes them risky;
           | all cryptography is risky. It took a surprisingly long time
           | --- well into the 2000s --- to figure out how to safely
           | deploy RSA.
           | 
           | Virtually every serious PQ implementation proposal pairs the
           | PQ key exchange with a "conventional" key exchange, for this
           | reason.
           | 
           | If you believe that QC is going to break "conventional"
           | cryptography, Bitcoin is toast; I don't think there aren't a
           | lot of extra "ifs" to that. Smarter people than me think
           | there might be a window of time where RSA falls and ECC
           | survives; maybe you could hope that Bitcoin would react
           | quickly enough inside that window.
        
           | g_p wrote:
           | My understanding is that Bitcoin, _used correctly_ , is
           | effectively quantum safe.
           | 
           | Since the "recipient" address of a UTXO is expressed as a
           | hash, a user does not broadcast their public key until after
           | they spend the funds. If you follow good practice, you make a
           | single transaction, sending funds to the recipient, and the
           | "change" to yourself, in a new wallet address (addressed by
           | the hash of its public key). This means the public key is
           | never visible to an attacker until its balance is zero.
           | 
           | Therefore, to attack this and steal funds through false
           | transactions, you effectively need both a pre-image attack on
           | SHA256 (so you have a valid public key to match the UTXO
           | address), and a way to solve the discrete logarithm problem,
           | breaking ECDSA (on the Secp256k1 curve), so you can sign
           | using the private key corresponding to that public key.
           | 
           | SHA256 would come under Grover's algorithm, I believe, which
           | would give you 128 bits of security under a quantum attack.
           | That is still pretty good going.
        
         | version_five wrote:
         | No practical quantum supremacy or anything like it has been
         | demonstrated has it? Is it sort of expected that will co-occur
         | with QC breaking encryption? I'm just trying to gauge how
         | "almost here" this actually is, or if it's still talk
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | Quantum supremacy is a much much much lower bar than breaking
           | rsa (at normal key strength)
        
           | advisedwang wrote:
           | Cloudflare estimates 15-40 years[1]. Cloudflare, Google [2],
           | Amazon [3] and others are all at various phases of moving to
           | post-quantum algorithms.
           | 
           | My own lesson from the Snowden revelations is that if we're
           | close enough to a security break that the possibility is well
           | understood, there's a very high chance someone is already
           | doing it.
           | 
           | [1] https://blog.cloudflare.com/post-quantum-for-all/
           | 
           | [2] https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/identity-
           | security/why...
           | 
           | [3] https://www.amazon.science/blog/preparing-today-for-a-
           | post-q...
        
         | zzz345345 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | Strilanc wrote:
         | Another use case where you should be seriously considering
         | using post-quantum techniques is update verification. If a
         | piece of hardware needs to work 10 years from now, and it uses
         | RSA or ECC public key crypto to verify proposed software
         | updates, it may live long enough to see quantum computers break
         | that.
        
         | A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
         | I will admit that I have no idea how that would look like. If
         | quantum computer can be as capable as one envisioned in
         | Jormungand, I am not sure if anything short of declaring them a
         | weapon is needed.
        
           | advisedwang wrote:
           | Quantum computers aren't magic, they have specific
           | capabilities that can be planned around. Google 'post-quantum
           | cryptography' for current work on quantum resistent
           | algorithms, some of which are already being deployed to
           | production.
        
             | A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
             | Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable
             | from magic. I will openly say that I not understand it
             | beyond knowing that, in a very general sense, it is not
             | based on ones and zeroes. If I do not understand it, it is
             | difficult for me to wrap my head around it and what it can
             | and cannot do.
             | 
             | It might not be magic, but it might as well be ( and may
             | end up being next hype train ).
        
       | molticrystal wrote:
       | Who was the guy and what was the flawed and retracted paper
       | mentioned in the below quote from Schneier's article?
       | 
       | >In email, Roger Grimes told me: "Apparently what happened is
       | another guy who had previously announced he was able to break
       | traditional asymmetric encryption using classical computers...but
       | reviewers found a flaw in his algorithm and that guy had to
       | retract his paper.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | meltyness wrote:
       | A note to cast further suspicion on the immediate risk severity:
       | 
       | The researchers indicate use of a computer built with
       | superconducting qubits in the abstract, to that, superconducting
       | qubits present barriers such as
       | 
       | - limited coherence time due to common atmospheric muon events,
       | and resulting phonons
       | 
       | - limited topological connectivity, further increasing needed
       | coherence time.
        
         | reikonomusha wrote:
         | Limited coherence time is not explained as simply as
         | "atmospheric muon events". There are a variety of reasons, some
         | environmental, others a result of imperfect fabrication, etc.
         | that contribute to decoherence, gate error, etc.
        
           | meltyness wrote:
           | I know that, but I recall specific literature reflecting the
           | specific effect mentioned[0] and it seems intuitive that the
           | surface area and orientation currently in use for these
           | qubits may potentiate the effect, I think the other effects
           | you list are barriers to other qubit registers as well.
           | 
           | [0] https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/01/resolving-high-energy-
           | impa...
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | so just increase to 4096 or 8192 bits or beyond?
        
         | TacticalCoder wrote:
         | Why is this downvoted? Ain't it exponentially harder to break
         | RSA using qubits each time you double the key length?
         | 
         | Until we switch to quantum resistant algorithms, we can keep
         | doubling the key length for some time no?
         | 
         | 8192 bits should still be acceptable speed wise (if we consider
         | that 2048 bits is broken, then I'll take slower operations over
         | broken keys any day of the week).
        
           | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
           | Because it isn't. This paper (alegedly) uses sublinear qbits
           | (that's the whole point).
        
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