[HN Gopher] 9 Forecasts for the Near Future, with Implications
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       9 Forecasts for the Near Future, with Implications
        
       Author : marban
       Score  : 18 points
       Date   : 2022-12-30 18:58 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (scottbelsky.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (scottbelsky.substack.com)
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | _"... If you don't own the query interface, you're just
       | assembling training data for those who do. "_
       | 
       | Good point, but Google is already there.
       | 
       |  _" A highly personalized AI-powered medical assistant will
       | complement (and eventually replace) our General Practitioner."_
       | 
       | No way. Chatbot-type AI has no notion of what it's doing or the
       | implications of its advice. We're several major breakthroughs
       | from that. Although someone may try this for some low-rent level
       | of health care.
       | 
       |  _" We can no longer rely on our senses to determine truth."_
       | 
       | We can no longer rely on imagery, video, or audio. Everything now
       | needs a full chain of custody to be trusted. Which we will not
       | often get.
       | 
       |  _" Hyper-personalized experiences disrupt traditional e-commerce
       | and hospitality brands - and enable an immersive era that is
       | tailored to you."_
       | 
       | Another filter bubble scheme. We already have personalized ads.
       | We could have systems where you walk into a chain restaurant and
       | they already know what you want. Hotels might do something for
       | frequent travelers. But they could have been doing that ten years
       | ago.
       | 
       |  _" Companies will perform rapid resets to eliminate
       | organizational debt and compete with startups."_
       | 
       | Historically, this rarely happens, even when it needs to. When it
       | does, it usually involves firing the CEO.
        
       | 2sk21 wrote:
       | Pretty underwhelming set of predictions. However, his fascination
       | with the deconstruction of Twitter was pretty jarring.
        
       | kbrkbr wrote:
       | It's just me, but I do not call anything without a clear time
       | line a ,,forecast". Is it a forecast if you cannot decide clearly
       | if it has happened or not? What then have you forecast?
       | 
       | Edit: s/prediction/forecast/a
        
       | phoehne wrote:
       | Here's something I don't get. If the generative AI gets so good
       | it can diagnose disease or give us perfectly curated experiences,
       | why wouldn't it just "generate content" at an expert level? Why
       | would we need to compensate "content creators" at all. It would
       | just take our preferences and give us an endless stream of
       | Avengers themed content (for example), generating new stories,
       | blog posts, and fan sites as fast as we can consume. For that
       | matter, it could give us expert level prediction articles as fast
       | as we can read them.
        
       | drewg123 wrote:
       | Off topic, but is there a firefox extension that will get rid of
       | that @#$%@#$%#$% substack popup that floats in the middle of the
       | page?
        
         | catach wrote:
         | Behold: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-
         | US/firefox/addon/substack-bann...
         | 
         | Actually, that just removes the floating header, which probably
         | isn't what you want.
        
         | _a_a_a_ wrote:
         | Turning off JS works nicely.
        
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       (page generated 2022-12-30 23:01 UTC)