[HN Gopher] AI: Markets for Lemons, and the Great Logging Off
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       AI: Markets for Lemons, and the Great Logging Off
        
       Author : willbobaggins
       Score  : 326 points
       Date   : 2022-12-29 03:17 UTC (19 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.fortressofdoors.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.fortressofdoors.com)
        
       | pavel_lishin wrote:
       | > _What happens when most "people" you interact with on the
       | internet are fake? I think people start logging off._
       | 
       | I don't necessarily think that's the case. Remember the old
       | "nobody on the internet knows you're a dog" cartoon? Well, I
       | think that for a lot of things, nobody cares if they're talking
       | to a dog.
       | 
       | People only care about people on the internet being fake in
       | certain contexts. They'll very much care if all of their dating
       | app matches are robots, because the end goal of a dating app is
       | actually meeting someone in the flesh.
       | 
       | But I don't think that people on Nextdoor and Facebook groups
       | particularly care - or would even notice - if they're talking to
       | robots. As far as I can tell from my limited exposure, most
       | people like getting caremad in comments. Even in local groups, it
       | doesn't feel like there's much connection being made between
       | neighbors; an AI complaining about traffic or
       | agreeing/disagreeing with someone's political opinion would
       | scratch the same itch as someone two towns over doing it.
        
         | jlarocco wrote:
         | There's a lot of "I don't think" in there. Have you actually
         | asked anybody?
         | 
         | I haven't, but my impression and anecdotal data is exactly
         | opposite.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | Picking at "I don't think" feels like point scoring behavior,
           | and generally unwise - we want people to share their
           | confidence level and source right? Dropping it makes your
           | argument harder to nitpick and sound more authoritative at
           | the expense of important information/honesty.
           | 
           | Suggested remediation: just, like, disagree :) this is a self
           | serving recommendation though because I really enjoy seeing
           | people's differing perspectives
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | Some of the most popular platforms online are largely anonymous
         | (Reddit and Twitter). Most of the time, you don't even notice
         | the username of the person responding to you. They might as
         | well be bots, but people don't care.
         | 
         | Heck, Reddit threads are often so predictable that they might
         | as well be written by bots.
         | 
         | So yeah, most people just want to talk and feel that someone,
         | something is listening to them. People rejecting your idea need
         | to recalibrate their understanding of the depth and breadth of
         | human loneliness.
         | 
         | The original New Yorker cartoonist forgot that people talk to
         | their dogs too.
        
         | nothis wrote:
         | Ok, that's worse.
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | Does it matter if the person on the other side of the glory
         | hole is a dude? Maybe? Maybe you didn't think that was a
         | possibility? Maybe it being widely known that you are yelling
         | at clouds makes it less satisfying of a scratch?
        
         | WindyLakeReturn wrote:
         | I don't think they care who it is, but they care who is a who.
         | They aren't concerned about it being an AI because that concern
         | hasn't crossed their mind. If it becomes common knowledge that
         | the people responding are bots, I think we will see others
         | begin to react.
         | 
         | I've seen similar reaction in communities around enjoying art,
         | even though I find those have less reason to care where the art
         | comes from.
        
           | pavel_lishin wrote:
           | As a member of one of those communities, I definitely have a
           | good reason to care - AI art has flooded some of them, to the
           | point where it's all "noise", and there's not much value in
           | reading things until it dies down.
        
       | alkonaut wrote:
       | Like proof of work and proof of stake, I think we'll see proof-
       | of-humanness in a way that's far more intrusive and cumbersome
       | than current captchas ever were.
       | 
       | At this time we're still safe by doing "click the joke that's
       | actually funny". Once an AI figures that one out, I imagine we'll
       | have to prove we are made of meat.
        
       | ilikerashers wrote:
       | The article reads like an internet doomsday prophecy but also,
       | property will go up because the internet will get worse.
       | 
       | That is just an odd take and maybe hints that this is a generated
       | article itself.
        
         | UncleEntity wrote:
         | Not all property.
         | 
         | The old timey neighborhoods where people wave at their
         | neighbors and have things like block parties is what they're
         | talking about. Communities built around human interaction as
         | opposed to a hundred story apartment building where maybe you
         | can recognize a couple of your neighbors if you saw them on the
         | street.
        
       | asta123 wrote:
       | Unfortunately large number of people seem to be more concerned
       | about feeding their already made up bias then authenticity of
       | content. So not sure they will start logging off.
        
         | toofy wrote:
         | never confuse the loud fringe for anything other than a loud
         | fringe.
        
       | ShredKazoo wrote:
       | <Playing devil's advocate>
       | 
       | Consider this classic XKCD: https://xkcd.com/810/
       | 
       | There are 2 possibilities: The AI can comment as well as a human,
       | or it can't.
       | 
       | If it can comment as well as a human, our experience of using
       | social networks will not be degraded. We still get the same
       | experience as before.
       | 
       | If it can't, then its contributions won't get as many
       | likes/upvotes, and they won't be particularly prominent. Most
       | content users see will be human-created.
       | 
       | So I think the key question is whether AI will be able to
       | manipulate the liking and voting systems. But there are methods
       | for preventing this: ignore votes from accounts created after
       | ChatGPT's release, or for a site like Twitter with paid accounts,
       | ignore votes from unpaid accounts. It's not even clear what
       | ChatGPT adds beyond a human voting ring, and social networks
       | presumably have lots of experience dealing with voting rings
       | already.
        
         | AussieWog93 wrote:
         | >If it can comment as well as a human, our experience of using
         | social networks will not be degraded. We still get the same
         | experience as before.
         | 
         | I think you're massively underestimating how important
         | motivations are. Bot accounts that can perfectly mask as human
         | but whose prime directive is to recommend their sponsors'
         | products would ruin trust in a heartbeat.
        
           | Firmwarrior wrote:
           | Half of the Reddit front page is this already. Dudes are
           | swimming in millions of upvotes while blatantly advertising
        
             | yunwal wrote:
             | But you can tell that it's happening. And also it's still
             | only half, and not the entire internet, because human
             | marketers don't scale as much as AI.
        
               | Firmwarrior wrote:
               | I can tell that it's happening because I'm a paranoid
               | fucking psycho. That's not true of the millions and
               | millions of regular human beings using Reddit and
               | Facebook every day
        
         | Jiro wrote:
         | The AI could comment as well as a human until it gets to its
         | payload, which is a scam. People will vote it down _after_ they
         | get taken in by the scam, which is too late. Or maybe not even
         | then, if the payload isn 't a scam per se, but something that's
         | deliberately designed by the AI's developer to be slanted. A
         | million AIs that are indistinguishable from humans but
         | occasionally throw in a comment about how they got sick from
         | Pepsi could make things very profitable for the Coca-Cola
         | company.
         | 
         | Also, upvotes are an imperfect measure of how good the post is
         | and AIs would be able to game the measure.
        
           | ShredKazoo wrote:
           | >People will vote it down after they get taken in by the
           | scam, which is too late.
           | 
           | Not too late to create training data by which the social
           | media platform can detect and remove subsequent scams.
           | Especially if they 'report' rather than downvote.
           | 
           | >A million AIs that are indistinguishable from humans but
           | occasionally throw in a comment about how they got sick from
           | Pepsi could make things very profitable for the Coca-Cola
           | company.
           | 
           | How is this different from Coca-Cola paying influencers to
           | post negative stuff about Pepsi?
           | 
           | >Also, upvotes are an imperfect measure of how good the post
           | is and AIs would be able to game the measure.
           | 
           | How is this different from humans gaming the measure?
        
             | czzr wrote:
             | The ability to generate nonsense/noise at immense scale for
             | essentially zero cost.
        
             | yunwal wrote:
             | > How is this different from Coca-Cola paying influencers
             | to post negative stuff about Pepsi?
             | 
             | Coca cola can't have millions of influencers on their
             | payroll (or at least, it wouldn't be economically
             | profitable for them to do that). An AI could easily create
             | and post on accounts on a scale that dwarfs real human-
             | generated content.
        
               | ShredKazoo wrote:
               | 80/20 rule -- 20% of influencers generate 80% of the
               | views. Don't need to pay everyone.
               | 
               | https://www.ftc.gov/business-
               | guidance/resources/disclosures-...
               | 
               | ^ Wouldn't this apply to ChatGPT bots as well?
        
             | Jiro wrote:
             | >Not too late to create training data by which the social
             | media platform can detect and remove subsequent scams.
             | 
             | How is that going to happen? We're assuming the AI posts
             | exactly like a human until the comment about Pepsi comes
             | out. It'll be impossible to distinguish from a human, by
             | assumption. Or are you going to just have the site reject
             | everything which mentions Pepsi negatively?
             | 
             | >How is this different from Coca-Cola paying influencers to
             | post negative stuff about Pepsi?
             | 
             | AIs don't need to be paid.
        
               | ShredKazoo wrote:
               | >How is that going to happen? We're assuming the AI posts
               | exactly like a human until the comment about Pepsi comes
               | out. It'll be impossible to distinguish from a human, by
               | assumption. Or are you going to just have the site reject
               | everything which mentions Pepsi negatively?
               | 
               | You could have a reporting system.
               | 
               | >AIs don't need to be paid.
               | 
               | At scale, this sort of service is not going to be free.
               | But I suppose AI could make it a lot cheaper.
        
         | kybernetyk wrote:
         | >If it can comment as well as a human, our experience of using
         | social networks will not be degraded. We still get the same
         | experience as before.
         | 
         | Out of fun I posted a few "posts" generated by ChatGPT to my
         | local town's facebook group (complaining about the quality of
         | snow this year, nonsense like that).
         | 
         | The posts got a lot of engagement (100+ comments each) and the
         | only one who figured out it was AI generated was a girl from
         | the local university who studies computer science.
        
           | prox wrote:
           | I agree, AI is like that long flash intro you couldn't skip
           | in the early website days. Just annoying enough to disrupt
           | any actual commentary (aka true exchange of ideas)
        
             | ShredKazoo wrote:
             | Flash intros eventually went away, presumably because
             | websites without them were more successful. So your
             | argument appears to imply that humans will still be more
             | successful on social media than AIs?
        
               | prox wrote:
               | No argument pro or against, I honestly don't know. The
               | point being that it will be annoying enough to get rid of
               | it (in some places at least)
        
         | randomsearch wrote:
         | What you're missing here regards diversity and volume.
         | 
         | Diversity: because language models are in some sense capturing
         | an average (even if that average can be from a subset of
         | training data), its comments will not be very diverse. I
         | suspect if you try sampling away from the center of the
         | distribution, you'll find the quality degrades to nonsense.
         | 
         | Volume: the biggest problem is that you'll end up with complete
         | overwhelm of plausible comments. Language models cannot reason,
         | which means they are incapable of producing the best insights
         | (they can probably provide insight through "monkeys at
         | typewriters" effects).
         | 
         | So the smart human who has analysed the subject really well,
         | who currently has to rise above a certain amount of background
         | noise, will now get completely swamped by it.
        
       | anselm wrote:
       | Authors making this argument (which we see often now) really need
       | to sketch out why cryptographic solutions will fail.
       | 
       | The entire thesis rests on this erroneous sentence in the second
       | point: "This can be done in two ways - just move to invite-only
       | silos where you already know everybody, or big platforms where
       | the owners do the vetting for you."
       | 
       | There are more options. We employ them when we are forced to;
       | when it becomes cheaper than not.
       | 
       | We can sign posts or sign that somebody is real or to sign that
       | somebody has earned rep, or that somebody has burned their rep...
       | and subjectively score every piece of content that crosses our
       | phone against our social trust graph.
       | 
       | We can rhizomatically scale social networks, can deputize our
       | people in our extended social network to mark content as
       | appropriate for kids or not, or otherwise filter. There's no
       | specific reason why we cannot grow a kind of social nervous
       | system that has a kind of myelin sheath against noise and spam.
       | It doesn't have to be specifically only people we've shaken hands
       | with or our like 3 closest buddies.
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | You can employ those techniques but real people will get
         | blocked as spam. And the better AI can evade the closer to the
         | bone you will have to cut. Then what? AI is interacting with
         | your algorithm to silence voices.
        
         | vlovich123 wrote:
         | Because using technology to solve human problems rarely/never
         | works. [1] was originally written for spam and bore mostly
         | correct. Explain how replacing spam with "AI-generated spam"
         | changes anything? You can try to fight this stuff but it will
         | look more like AI to detect AI (similar to our current anti-
         | spam tech). No reason to believe cryptography has some kind of
         | magical bullet here as it's an unrelated problem domain. And to
         | the person claiming you get kicked off and that prevents you
         | from coming back ignores a) we haven't solved being able to tie
         | disparate online personas for a unique offline one (despite
         | Facebook ostensibly trying really hard) b) there are all sorts
         | of secondary problems that pop up when you try to do that (eg
         | ignores the concept of learning from your mistakes and
         | redemption, key things that happen frequently with the young or
         | anyone else testing boundaries).
         | 
         | [1] https://trog.qgl.org/20081217/the-why-your-anti-spam-idea-
         | wo...
        
           | throw10920 wrote:
           | > Because using technology to solve human problems
           | rarely/never works.
           | 
           | You're badly misunderstanding the parent post - it is _not_
           | proposing a technological solution to a human problem, but a
           | technological _enforcement_ of a fundamentally human
           | solution:
           | 
           | > subjectively score every piece of content that crosses our
           | phone against our social trust graph...can deputize our
           | people in our extended social network to mark content as
           | appropriate for kids or not, or otherwise filter
           | 
           | This is a social web of trust, where _real people_ do the
           | ranking and trust assignments - the cryptography and other
           | technology just keeps track of bookkeeping.
        
             | vlovich123 wrote:
             | Given that GPT is already difficult to distinguish from a
             | person who's confidently wrong, how does this web of trust
             | system solve the problem?
             | 
             | The belief that anything will "solve" this seems naive when
             | there's 20+ years of proof of this being an "unsolvable"
             | problem despite repeated technological, social, and
             | legislative attempts. There might be a new normal
             | established with new battlegrounds drawn and we learn to
             | "live" with it, but I'm willing to bet non-trivial domes of
             | money against there being any true "solution" here.
        
         | awestroke wrote:
         | So, people start signing their AI-generated messages. What have
         | we gained?
        
           | NoGravitas wrote:
           | Indeed. SPF and DKIM were supposed to reduce spam by ensuring
           | that every sender was verified. Now, we have more spam than
           | ever, and all the senders are verified (on short-lived
           | garbage domains that are not yet on blocklists). The only
           | DKIM failures I ever see are on legitimate mail from badly
           | set-up lists.
        
             | kolinko wrote:
             | DKIM and SPF are more important for phishing than for spam.
             | Without them, it's very easy to spoof senders.
        
           | treis wrote:
           | You can ban them and they'll stay banned. Today they'll come
           | back or switch to one of the other dozen accounts they post
           | crap on. The counter argument to that is that places like
           | Facebook are mostly not pseudonymous and a lot of crap is
           | posted there.
        
             | djmips wrote:
             | And when you get banned because someone stole your key -
             | that's going to be awesome.
        
             | HDThoreaun wrote:
             | AI generated content will likely be higher quality than
             | what we have today. AI accounts will spend time building
             | reputation with superior content and then burn some on an
             | ad or spam campaign, but they'll still have a better
             | reputation than most people.
        
             | awestroke wrote:
             | Ban them on what grounds?
        
         | xg15 wrote:
         | The same problem we have with other networks of trust: Signing
         | works alright if you already know the people you expect
         | messages from (but in that case, it's also no better than the
         | invite-only social networks the OP talked about).
         | 
         | However, the real problem is getting to know new people or
         | vetting messages from people you don't know. In the future the
         | OP sketched, you can never be sure that an interesting new
         | person isn't actually a bot. Knowing the public key of that
         | person won't solve that problem.
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | One of the biggest problems in actually using cryptography in
         | the real world is matching keys to identities.
         | 
         | Using cryptography to solve the fake persona problem only works
         | if the key-identity matching problem is solved. It would be
         | great if the fake persona problem was the impetus that managed
         | a solution to the key-identity matching problem. But I have my
         | doubts.
         | 
         | Notably the key-identity matching problem isn't technical. Its
         | societal. "just do government provided keys" is technically
         | easy, but society (rightfully so) is suspicious of this. Other
         | solutions exist, with other trade-offs. SSL certificates have
         | centralization, revocation, and weakest-link problems. PGP-keys
         | have spoofing, verification, and usability problems (though I
         | liked key-base's approach here). European E-id is an
         | interesting step, one to watch, though I fear the EU
         | bureaucratic system might make a crucial mis-step. I really
         | like SSI based approaches, but SSI is mostly about using crypto
         | when the key-identity matching problem has been solved, and
         | less about solving the actual problem.
         | 
         | Some technical aspects that need solutions that tend to be un-
         | acceptable are handling key-revocation, key-theft, key-loss (as
         | in forgetting), and key-duplication.
        
           | px43 wrote:
           | How about we let people generate their own keys, then use
           | those keys to make identity claims, when people can generate
           | on their own, or which can be generated by a third party.
           | That gives multiple options to bind identities to arbitrary
           | social media accounts etc without needing some monolithic
           | root of trust.
           | 
           | I also really like the idea of using the keys to hold some
           | amount of value, such that if the keys ever get leaked, there
           | is basically a built in bug bounty to alert the key holder
           | (since the key thief has the option to take all the money).
           | This also gives users the incentive to manage their keys in a
           | sane way.
           | 
           | Social key management schemes are also super interesting, and
           | will likely be a part of future key management schemes. That
           | is, basically, allowing some set of friends and family to re-
           | roll or revoke identities that have been lost or stolen.
           | 
           | Slowly but surely, I think this future is coming. Lots of
           | good people are coming at it from different angles, but
           | basically all converging on the same general concepts.
        
             | throw10920 wrote:
             | > How about we let people generate their own keys, then use
             | those keys to make identity claims, when people can
             | generate on their own, or which can be generated by a third
             | party. That gives multiple options to bind identities to
             | arbitrary social media accounts etc without needing some
             | monolithic root of trust.
             | 
             | You hit the nail on the head. Matching keys to real people
             | can be done in-person for direct friends, then through a
             | web of trust for indirect friends. For
             | accounts/keys/personas you find on the internet where you
             | don't have a chain of friends, you can either rely on
             | "trusted" third-party attestation ("holder of key
             | 0xdeadbeef earned a degree from this university") - you may
             | never know with complete certainty if that's a real human,
             | a bot, or an alt account for someone you already know, _and
             | that 's totally fine_.
             | 
             | The "problem" of matching keys 1-to-1 with identities for
             | everyone globally (brought up by grandparent post) is a
             | massive red herring that doesn't need to be "solved".
        
         | wanderingbit wrote:
         | Context: I've been working in the cryptocurrency space for a
         | decade.
         | 
         | One of the most interesting technologies the crypto space is
         | working on are the SSI (self-sovereign identities).
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sovereign_identity
         | 
         | Even if the whole idea of cryptocurrencies is found to be a
         | dead-end, the fact that it invigorated the research and
         | development of SSI will change some important things about how
         | we operate online.
         | 
         | There exist prototypes of tech that allows you to prove you are
         | indeed a unique human being online [1], and reveal nothing else
         | about your identity. Most importantly, this tech is not owned
         | or controlled by any FAANG or government, it's an open protocol
         | just like email.
         | 
         | I have listened to a podcast with an expert researcher in AI,
         | and I remember him saying that he predicts some form of
         | cryptographic identity will arise in order to help deal with
         | the bot problem
         | 
         | [1] https://worldcoin.org/ (note, I don't work for them, and
         | have no idea if this will be the tech that finally breaks out,
         | I just think they're the furthest along of any of their
         | competitors)
        
       | vishnugupta wrote:
       | Sometime ago I began wondering along similar lines as the author,
       | not that deeper level of course but noodling around.
       | 
       | I think the internet will soon be clogged with bots competing
       | with other bots just to get a few seconds of human attention. At
       | that point the operational cost of bot farms will outstrip the
       | benefit and so we'll settle something like 60-70% bots maybe?
       | 
       | Speaking of myself I've gone back to reading and enjoying
       | physical books after being on kindle for close to a decade. I
       | never thought I'd go back to physical books but now a days
       | reading on kindle feels a bit too lifeless so to speak, so here
       | we are.
        
       | RodgerTheGreat wrote:
       | Search engines are faltering because many intersecting trends are
       | destroying the availability of a vibrant, indexed, text-based
       | internet: emphasis on video content, siloed content behind logins
       | and paywalls, pulling traffic out into "apps" that are no longer
       | part of the web, etc. GPT-style language models are also driving
       | massive creation of spam that further dilutes and poisons the
       | text sources that their own training models are derived from.
        
         | glass3 wrote:
         | _New_ search engines will falter.
         | 
         | Whoever has a collection of current pages has the data set to
         | be a gateway to authentic information.
        
           | matkoniecz wrote:
           | Google has problems already.
        
           | antupis wrote:
           | Problem is that it will not help when you try to search what
           | is best new phone 2028.
        
       | wyldfire wrote:
       | > Second, I think people will start to put a premium on accounts
       | being "verified" as genuinely human.
       | 
       | IMO this is long overdue. And I think people should/will
       | eventually even pay for this feature.
       | 
       | > Powerful nation states will be more than eager to assist them
       | in this regard.
       | 
       | I agree - world governments could consider even subsidizing this
       | in some way in order to foster fewer anonymous botnets sowing
       | discord. The web of trust could be useful to help bolster this -
       | if only in providing the process by which new social networks
       | could eliminate anonymity.
       | 
       | I hear a lot about SSI [1] from a family member who works on this
       | stuff. I'll be honest - I don't know whether it's promising or
       | dystopian. Maybe a little bit of each. But I optimistically think
       | it could be a way to help mitigate some of the problems created
       | by anonymity.
       | 
       | The loss of anonymity won't be a panacea -- for example: people
       | with legitimate accounts bound to their identity today accept
       | bribes to create positive reviews of goods. And the loss of
       | anonymity comes with significant drawbacks: criticizing
       | government and powerful people becomes more difficult.
       | 
       | Having a digital reputation that you can taint could put people
       | on their best behavior. But then again it's a bit dystopian [2,
       | 3].
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sovereign_identity
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System
       | 
       | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nosedive_(Black_Mirror)
        
         | ls15 wrote:
         | > But then again it's a bit dystopian
         | 
         | I am having a hard time to imagine a scenario that is more
         | dystopian
        
           | babyoil wrote:
           | The Black Mirror episode handling this is one of the most
           | dystopian and scary ones for me.
        
         | Renaud wrote:
         | >loss of anonymity comes with significant drawbacks:
         | criticizing government and powerful people becomes more
         | difficult.
         | 
         | How don't see how making our lives more dystopian can be a net
         | benefit.
         | 
         | How many of us expose different aspects of ourselves through
         | different identities? Maybe most people are happy to show
         | everyone all aspects of their lives, but I'm not, in part
         | because who I am could get me or the people I meet in trouble,
         | harassed, imprisoned or worse in some places.
         | 
         | Anonymity should remain a fundamental right. We have the right
         | to live and expose different parts of ourselves to different
         | audiences without overlap.
         | 
         | Anonymity is also a counter-power to governments. A government
         | that knows all about its citizen is bound to abuse this power.
         | 
         | We see it in many democracies; elected governments enact laws
         | that restrict freedoms to keep itself in power (Russia of
         | course, Turkey, Algeria, but also EU countries like Bulgaria).
         | Tools like government-issued ID that become mandatory to
         | express yourself online are doubly dangerous: they make it easy
         | to target those who cause trouble, and they can be used to
         | remove means of expression (who can listen to you if you are
         | denied an ID and there is no freedom of press to expose the
         | abuse?).
        
           | swader999 wrote:
           | Yep, a functioning society that benefits the most needs some
           | form of anonymous dissent.
        
             | bilbo0s wrote:
             | You guys are misunderstanding how things are developing
             | here.
             | 
             | The danger is not that you'll lose anonymity. The danger is
             | that if you _use_ anonymity, no one will listen to you. I
             | 'd wager a lot of algorithms will just shadow ban you. This
             | is because you become viewed, effectively, the same way as
             | the AI agent generating brand placement tweets for Bob's
             | Bargain Basement Bar-B-Que and Bitcoin.
             | 
             | No one will know the difference between you and the
             | corporate AI's. Only the verifiable humans will end up with
             | opinions that anyone pays any attention to. It's like
             | everything else will be a banner ad. Whether it's a banner
             | ad or not.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | > Only the verifiable humans will end up with opinions
               | that anyone pays any attention to.
               | 
               | This depends on people valuing who is saying something
               | rather than what is being said. I'm not saying you're
               | wrong, but I'm saying that if we're just trading in
               | celebrity rather than ideas that I'm pretty sure we can
               | also create celebrity AIs people would listen to.
        
               | Faark wrote:
               | Yeah, we will simply use an AI to summarize the article
               | and comment section for us and skip all the spam and
               | crap.
               | 
               | Jokes aside, now that i think about it, "article
               | summaries" are kind common on reddit, but i've never seen
               | such an algorithm used for comments, yet. Guess Up&Down-
               | votes are still the best we have.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pavel_lishin wrote:
         | > _Having a digital reputation that you can taint could put
         | people on their best behavior._
         | 
         | I've seen some pretty reprehensible behavior from people who
         | put their full name and a photo of their face on Facebook.
        
         | LarryMullins wrote:
         | I think as soon as people see "verified humans" posting things
         | they utterly disagree with, the temptation to call those people
         | "bots" will be too great to resist. A substantial portion of
         | internet commenters will sooner call a human verification
         | system into disrepute than admit that some real people really
         | do earnestly disagree with them. They'll spin conspiracy yarns
         | about how "the other side" controls the verification process
         | and allow their own bots to participate.
         | 
         | I think the solution to all of this is smaller tight-knit
         | discussion groups where all the participants know and trust
         | each other. Echo chambers will inevitability form. I don't
         | think there is any way around this.
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | You're just poisoning the well.
           | 
           | edit: I find it very bizarre and very fashionable to defend
           | the integrity of a verification service that does not exist,
           | and to already dismiss the non-existent people who could
           | suspect that this hypothetical system of verification was
           | corrupt as conspiracy theorists.
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | Your response is very strange. I have not "defended the
             | integrity of a verification system", nor am I inclined to
             | because I do not support the creation of such verification
             | systems in the first place. And I have no clue what "well"
             | you think I'm poisoning.
             | 
             | My point was not that such verification systems are
             | incorruptible. My point is that such verification systems
             | are pointless because they will inevitably be perceived as
             | corrupt. Whether or not the verification system is
             | _actually_ corrupt makes no difference. Such systems are
             | worthless because people won 't trust them. Any system will
             | be accused of being corrupt by "both sides" of any heated
             | debate, and they're not both going to be right. But it
             | doesn't matter of one, the other or neither are correct.
             | What matters is that the system won't work because people
             | won't trust it.
        
               | Faark wrote:
               | Sure, people will complain. But at the end of the day,
               | you platform either has it or will actually be drowned
               | out by bots. Just like everyone is complaining about
               | moderators, but all the "free speech" have them anyway.
               | Bots doing their part to split society & boosting echo
               | chambers sounds reasonable, but i doubt verification
               | system will have much impact.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ourlordcaffeine wrote:
         | Won't bot/troll farms just buy "verified human" accounts?
        
           | eru wrote:
           | That's what they are doing already. It's just that the human
           | verification involves solving some captchas etc.
        
         | taylorportman wrote:
         | I've always wondered why governments can't run social networks
         | for giving voice/reputation to citizens weighing in on current
         | issues to give rise to a phenomenon similar to the net in the
         | Ender's Game books that gave voice to Ender's siblings. There
         | exists a lot of untapped potential to harness the passion of
         | the armchair pundits but no pressure to mold this passion into
         | grassroot hierarchical influence that could potentially grant
         | political sway for individual's expert opinions. Currently
         | opinionated relatives of holiday dinner & BBQ socials are under
         | little pressure to cultivate their passion beyond a small inner
         | circle of hostages of social etiquette - if only they had an
         | outlet to mold that cunning & passion, to temper it with the
         | satisfaction of having your opinionated views addressed by the
         | big shot president of the times. In the book, these kids are
         | calling shots under pen names. It's fun to think about.
        
           | ls15 wrote:
           | Even though it is not an official service, in Germany there
           | is Abgeordnetenwach [0](Translate: _representative watch_ ),
           | where citizen can ask parlamentarians directly. Some
           | parlamentarians are great at answering questions, while some
           | never reply and some only let their offices copy & paste
           | standard replies. I wish politicians would be forced to make
           | an effort to reply to their sovereign. Certain reasonable
           | anti-spam and DoD measures granted.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.abgeordnetenwatch.de/
        
       | EGreg wrote:
       | I somehow do not share this poster's rosy outlook.
       | 
       |  _Second, I think people will start to put a premium on accounts
       | being "verified" as genuinely human. This can be done in two ways
       | - just move to invite-only silos where you already know
       | everybody, or big platforms where the owners do the vetting for
       | you. Lots of platforms will simply take a knee-jerk reaction
       | where they just up the amount of surveillance. "Now that there's
       | so much bot activity, everybody need to upload their passport and
       | driver's license, for your own safety of course!" Powerful nation
       | states will be more than eager to assist them in this regard._
       | 
       | I think people would put a premium on the abundant BOTS,
       | actually. If we look at wall street trading bots and so on, it's
       | actualy far more likely what will happen is that organizations
       | will start to PREFER bots. Eventually, we'll have self driving
       | cars dominating all traffic, bots generating nearly all online
       | content, and humans PREFERRING them. Because why not have a
       | seeminglu flawless outcome every time, a bot teacher with
       | limitless memory and eventually learning the habits and knowldge
       | of 917 people in the classroom for a personalized approach etc.
       | 
       | Why have a human lawyer when a bot can go through 300 arguments
       | and pick the one that fits that particular jury and
       | circumstances?
       | 
       | Take VCs for example. They want to see a community with hockey
       | stick growth and recurring revenues. Why have a community of
       | humans? You can now replicate this growth entirely with bots.
       | Twitter's growth will look pedestrian by comparison.
       | 
       | You may say, where's the money in this? The bots don't bring any
       | capital to the site. That's true today, but on wall street they
       | account for the vast majority of trading since they can out-trade
       | everyone and they also can swarm to collude with each other.
       | 
       | It's not hard to imagine that bots will start to actually receive
       | payment for the content they produce, just as people pay each
       | other on Patreon etc. or pay for copywriters, designers etc.
       | 
       | At this point the bots would be programmed to amass credits on a
       | site, which they can turn into capital. They'll have realistic 3D
       | models conversing with you, modeled after really anyone. Why have
       | onlyfans? Why have instagram models? Why pay for newscasters? Why
       | have actors in movies? Why have salespeople make calls? Why have
       | humans do anything online or remotely AT ALL?
       | 
       | My prediction is that bots will control nearly all the capital,
       | produce nearly all the content, and humans will prefer to
       | interact with bots for romantic conversations and everything
       | else.
       | 
       | The problem will be that these bots can easily swarm at any time
       | and dominate any group of humans, destroy reputations, move
       | public sentiment etc.
       | 
       | People's public opinion would be dominated by bot swarms.
       | 
       | Those who try to somehow prevail in their local communities or
       | control the bots will be essentially disrupted and reputationally
       | destroyed by the botswarms. It would become so cheap to destroy
       | any number of human reputations that people would set swarms up
       | to do it for the Lulz.
       | 
       | Governments that try to ban these bots can themselves be easily
       | overcome by botswarms. They'd just send endless numbers of fooled
       | and outraged people to their doorsteps and wherever they may be
       | eating. They will know all their whereabouts and all their
       | proclivities. And besides this, thousands of people will be
       | convinced by deepfakes and fake articles online that this
       | politician is doing something ridiculous or embarrassing. Every
       | time the politician would try to do something, they'd get a call
       | or visit from N constituents demanding their attention. The
       | botswarms can just DDOS all humans who try to stop them
       | basically. And at pretty trivial cost.
       | 
       | You here commenting on HN ... imagine if in 12 months from now,
       | half of all accounts around you are bots, and they all collude
       | against you and people with your viewpoint. What would you do?
       | 
       | The problem is "logging off" is about as effective as Ted
       | Kazinski trying to escape civilization by moving to the woods.
       | Are wild animals able to escape encroachment by humans into their
       | habitat?
        
       | artemavv wrote:
       | this article explains the concept of a market for lemons rather
       | clearly. This kind of simple and thorough explanation for other
       | economic phenomena would be rather valuable
        
       | hasbot wrote:
       | People go to social media sites for engagement. If AI bots
       | provide good interaction, most people will be happy and won't
       | care if they are chatting with a bot. Hell, the best social site
       | would be one in which I could create a couple of AI companions
       | with whom I could chat about things that interest me that day.
       | The companions would scour the Internet for related news and
       | topics, bring them to my attention, and we'd chat. Kinda like HN
       | but customizable.
        
         | deadpannini wrote:
         | Reading this comment (which is correct, I think) gives me the
         | urgent desire to log off HN.
        
       | balsam wrote:
       | Hey, you folks who are willing to pay to be part of a vetted
       | community? Looks like Sam Altman's WorldCoin, which is about
       | verifiable identity, might just become a viable business.
       | ChatGPT's role in that strategy makes more sense now.. remember
       | Altman is behind OpenAI? If this is part of his strategy to
       | monopolize internet comments, then his next step is to have
       | ChatGPT recognize its own outputs. (To deal with those
       | WorldCoiners who abuse ChatGPT, for example.)
        
         | crooked-v wrote:
         | The current state of crypto is such that I wouldn't trust
         | anything crypto-related with my video game saves, let alone my
         | identity.
        
           | balsam wrote:
           | I think WorldCoin is more popular with the Third World, who
           | simultaneously are more willing to spam and less concerned
           | about rights. Should have called it ThirdWorldCoin. The
           | prophet having renown away from home etc /s
        
           | kybernetyk wrote:
           | I still trust my private wallet. Everything else was normie
           | scam BS piled on top of crypto repeating the sin of
           | centralization. Good that it burned down.
        
       | mshake2 wrote:
       | To piggyback off of this, I predict we'll be _hearing_ (not
       | seeing) the phrase  "the internet is fake" a lot more.
        
         | bitwize wrote:
         | The "Dead Internet Theory" will be proven true, if it hasn't
         | been already.
        
         | prox wrote:
         | "The internet is a place where absolutely nothing happens." -
         | Strongbad
         | 
         | Seems to ring true more and more :)
        
           | beckingz wrote:
           | This was true when written, and then reality inverted itself
           | in 2015/2016 when internet culture became mainstream culture.
        
       | personjerry wrote:
       | I think the author is really gunning for his particular vision to
       | happen. If you were a tech leader would you just let "The Great
       | Logging Off" happen?
       | 
       | If this becomes a huge issue you'd better bet that big tech is
       | going to invest a lot of resources to solve it. The simplest
       | solution would be to get better at verifying real human users,
       | for example with better adversarial AI systems to detect non-
       | humans or more document-based authentication tying your real
       | identity to your user account (and thus any bans for misuse going
       | to your real identity).
        
         | p00rsplr wrote:
         | [dead]
        
       | z3t4 wrote:
       | If you can make your own AI that scams people, there will be
       | easier ways for you to make money.
        
       | woeirua wrote:
       | This article gets it. ChatGPT heralds the end of free user
       | comments, forums and social media. Because when everything and
       | everyone online is fake, why even log on to Insta or FB or
       | Twitter? The internet will still be useful, but Web 2.0 will go
       | the way of the dodo unless it adapts and the easiest way to cut
       | down on spam is to charge users money for access. Spam campaigns
       | are a lot less lucrative when it costs money to participate.
       | Hell, charge $0.05 per email. The amount of spam would decrease
       | significantly.
       | 
       | Side note, I've long thought that identity verification is the
       | _one_ area that a public blockchain could actually add legitimate
       | value to. But I've seen no efforts in that direction to date.
        
         | BeFlatXIII wrote:
         | > the easiest way to cut down on spam is to charge users money
         | for access
         | 
         | Which realistically means everyone will log off and touch grass
         | instead of pay to interact with other verified humans.
        
         | llanowarelves wrote:
         | Will something like the precursor to Bitcoin, meant to combat
         | spam -- Hashcash -- become important again?
         | 
         | The enabling technology behind micropayments is ironically
         | looking like a CBDC a lot more than Bitcoin (+other cryptos),
         | for scalability reasons.
        
         | krainboltgreene wrote:
         | > but Web 2.0 will go the way of the dodo
         | 
         | What does Web 2.0 have to do with any of this?
        
           | ElevenLathe wrote:
           | Web 2.0 often refers to the "second wave" of consumer-facing
           | internet sites that allowed users to leave comments and
           | interact with each other, as opposed to the Web 1.0 of static
           | HTML sites.
        
           | rapind wrote:
           | It's a reference to user generated content (web 2.0) and
           | saying it will become AI generated content.
           | 
           | I think we've already been seeing it, just done badly. Most
           | content marketing is somewhat automated. The tools (ChatGPT)
           | have made a leap and the internet will be riddled with it and
           | it's brethren.
           | 
           | What's interesting though is that future AIs will train on AI
           | generated content which trained on AI generated... etc.
           | Possibly missing legitimate feedback?
           | 
           | AI is inevitably unleashed on AI in a game of cat and mouse
           | driven by that unholy god "marketing" thus eventually
           | rendering the internet useless in a race to the bottom of
           | legitimate human interaction.
        
             | antupis wrote:
             | many ways it is already happening with those content farms
             | and sock puppets but also with Tiktok style feeds where you
             | don't follow users but mindlessly watch what algorithm will
             | provide for you.
        
         | arcturus17 wrote:
         | The volumes of email spam are absolutely staggering, but its
         | detection and filtering, with minuscule amounts of false
         | negatives, are nearly perfect. It has been largely a solved
         | problem for a decade to which we give very little credit. Me
         | personally, it blows my mind out of the water every time I'm
         | reminded of it.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | Spam filters are indeed amazing, but I do get a non-trivial
           | number of false positives these days.
           | 
           | Spam is a moving target.
        
             | jnwatson wrote:
             | And the movement of spam just accelerated with ChatGPT.
        
               | Kye wrote:
               | I have a feeling Bayesian spam filters will be highly
               | effective at picking out patterns in anything generated
               | by a particular model. The arms race will move from
               | spammers coming up with new templates to spammers coming
               | up with new models.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | There is as much spam as there is email. Did people quit email?
        
           | blackbear_ wrote:
           | No, because spam filters are pretty good. But that may
           | change, too.
        
           | Analemma_ wrote:
           | Yes, they did. Both my work and personal email inboxes are
           | pretty much exclusively various kinds of automated messages
           | (order details, newsletters, announcements from various
           | tools), I get essentially zero personal communication over it
           | anymore; that all happens on other platforms. Email has more
           | or less gone the way of regular mail: still used for various
           | businesses to get in touch with you, but for personal
           | communication it is dead.
        
           | OgAstorga wrote:
           | There is more than twice spam as there is legitimate email
           | (source: ran a corporate email server). However, so far most
           | spam is automatically detected.
           | 
           | In the near future, It's likely that this is no longer going
           | to be the case and in the moment that most of your email is
           | spam you are going to stop trusting everything you receive.
           | 
           | Even right now inside corps people already (should?) distrust
           | and double checks everything that comes from another domain.
        
             | travisgriggs wrote:
             | Obviously people didn't quit email. But I also don't
             | "engage" with email with anything near the intensity that I
             | used to. 20 years ago...? One of the hottest romcoms ever,
             | was built around our feverish engagement with email:
             | "You've got Mail!" Can you imagine that being a pitch for a
             | romcom next year? They'd laugh you out of the room. Because
             | while people still use email, they don't engage with it the
             | way they used to.
             | 
             | I think this sense of disengagement is what the author is
             | trying to metaphorically capture with the idea of "logging
             | off". It might just be my family and peer groups, but I do
             | sense this in general. The internet and its various
             | "social" constructs feel more and more like they've crossed
             | that line in dating relationships where the other person
             | becomes "clingy/needy" and it starts to grow wearisome and
             | cringy. I think that causes people to quietly disengage.
        
             | t0lo wrote:
             | I can't help but wonder how we will ensure official
             | government/legal->user communication is legitimate in the
             | face of software that can dodge spam filters at a whim. Is
             | it back to letters for us?
        
           | clnq wrote:
           | A lot of people did. Most business communication happens in
           | virtual meetings or on platforms like Slack and Teams. Most
           | informal communication occurs through voice calls and instant
           | messaging. All that used to be email around Y2K, as far as I
           | remember.
        
       | birdfood wrote:
       | I've been thinking about similar things lately, and particularly
       | I think about the 3 billion humans who have never used the
       | internet. How will this affect them? And how do they interpret
       | this existential crisis we are facing?
       | 
       | Additionally, when the internet is mostly created by bots, why
       | would I go online to look up a recipe on a bot cooking blog that
       | was generated yesterday when I could have my pocket bot generate
       | a brand new, tailor made cooking blog for me whenever I want?
       | Ditto for instagram/tiktok. Generate the next image based on how
       | long I looked at the last one.
        
       | djokkataja wrote:
       | > Third, that AI technologies won't be perfect substitutes for
       | actual human-to-human contact.
       | 
       | I'm not sure this assumption holds true _enough_ : incredible
       | numbers of humans have already substituted vast swaths of
       | _direct_ human-to-human contact with the gigantic text-only
       | condoms provided by the internet. We 've already traded in
       | superior quality human contact for inferior quality contact--for
       | the bonus of more specialized content which we probably wouldn't
       | get if we knocked on our neighbors' doors.
       | 
       | This doesn't necessarily invalidate many of the proposals in this
       | article. But what about the dimensions in which AI provides or
       | will eventually provide a _superior_ substitute to human-to-human
       | contact?
        
       | MagicMoonlight wrote:
       | You can see it on reddit. The subreddits used to be interesting
       | and relatively diverse, now it's just autoposting by pots and
       | thousands of identical comments. It's only on the small
       | subreddits that there's still actual content and they'll be
       | destroyed with time.
        
       | Geee wrote:
       | The purpose of communication is to distribute and filter
       | information. We don't actually _need_ to communicate. We do it to
       | distribute and filter information. It is currently a very
       | inefficient process. If AI does that for us in the future, all is
       | good and we end up being more efficient. No more time wasted on
       | reading  & writing comments on the Internet.
       | 
       | AI should be able to pick the most relevant information for you
       | and present it in the most compressed form.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | lotu wrote:
         | That sounds perfectly plausible except if people are expecting
         | these services to be free like all big tech platforms currently
         | are. In that case the AI will tailor information to manipulate
         | you to do what the people paying the platforms want whether
         | that is buying a product or supporting a political cause.
        
         | mola wrote:
         | If it's a personal ai. But I wouldn't trust a centralized for
         | profit "AI". Journalists atleast (had) ethics and norms that
         | can make me somewhat trust them. A for profit AI filtering
         | information for me? It's asking for trouble.
        
           | Geee wrote:
           | Yeah, AI must be personal and aligned to each individual
           | rather than centralized and aligned to collective / group of
           | high priests / profit-maximizers.
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | In some ways everything we do is communication, everyone has a
         | built in need to be loved, to be part of a group.
        
         | LeftCorner wrote:
         | >The purpose of communication is to distribute and filter
         | information.
         | 
         | And connect with other people, feel catharsis, to feel less
         | alone, loved, engaged, interested, and the other things that
         | make us human. AI will not give us that and in fact undermine
         | that. Perhaps then AI will push back to the "real world" for
         | these interactions, as the article opines.
        
           | awestroke wrote:
           | > AI will not give us that [...]"
           | 
           | Is that true?
        
           | Geee wrote:
           | There's more time to connect and have fun with people in the
           | real world when less time is spent on reading & writing
           | comments on the Internet.
        
             | johnny22 wrote:
             | unless nobody nearby in the real world shares your
             | interests. That's the reason i got into the internet in the
             | first place!
        
       | college_physics wrote:
       | In real life people developed (over millenia) a wide range of
       | mechanisms to support stable social interactions.
       | 
       | Concepts like ownership, privacy, authority etc. are not laws of
       | nature but deeply rooted behavioral patterns that proved to be
       | useful in some global sense.
       | 
       | What happens currently with the explosion of "digital society" is
       | that, largely due to greed, certain first mover groups are
       | dismantling all that - basically because they can given the
       | widespread digital illiteracy and the lack of any regulatory
       | mechanisms.
       | 
       | The response will be indeed people trying to log off. But if you
       | consider the callous insistence with which ruling elites impose
       | e.g., cash-less, fully digital transactions, its arguable that
       | the escape hatches have been locked already.
       | 
       | Unless some new benevolent dynamic shows up that can harness the
       | digital domain more congruently with welfare prepare for a period
       | of great social unrest and the destruction of major social
       | contracts.
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | There is a pretty huge difference between having an email
         | address and credit card vs actively engaging with
         | twitter/instagram/facebook/tiktok/etc. You can still
         | participate and benefit from online govt services and banking
         | while avoiding social media.
        
           | college_physics wrote:
           | This might be a too sanguine view that flies on the face of
           | countless warning signs. All digital behavior inceasingly
           | happens through the same mobile device which had been a true
           | wild west, commingling vast personal information islands
           | (location, behavior, health/biometric, financial etc).
           | 
           | Social media apps have already manifested themselves (in the
           | East) as "super apps" and purportetdly this might also be the
           | target business model for some western outfits
        
         | forgotusername6 wrote:
         | I would argue that calling businesses that offer cashless
         | services "ruling elites" is not particularly helpful. There are
         | legitimate reasons why they no longer offer cash services e.g.
         | fraud prevention, speed of transaction, health concerns. In
         | addition a fast food truck offering only cashless can hardly be
         | considered an elite.
        
           | college_physics wrote:
           | Businesses, especially small entities will simply dance to
           | the tune being played. Elites refers to the technocratic
           | policy bodies that influence regulation and legislation. In
           | various places cash is actively deprecated even while the
           | digital domain is a fiasco harboring enormous risks.
           | 
           | Btw I am not defending cash technology as such, I am offering
           | an example of why the "logging off" option might be less
           | available than what people think.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | blippage wrote:
       | One solution for the few, not the many, would be a resurgent
       | interest in protocols like gopher or more recent protocols like
       | gemini.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | dalbasal wrote:
       | Even for cars, "The Market for Lemons" dynamic has never been a
       | major effect. It doesn't define automotive culture. The theory
       | does describe parts of reality in the used car market, but even
       | here... it's not the main thing. A theory like this may be useful
       | for understanding existing phenomenon, but not for prediction...
       | IMO.
       | 
       | Anyway... "SPAM" may be over. That is, I suspect that whatever
       | low end, semi-legal marketing drek produced by GPT-like will not
       | read as "SPAM" to us. Rather, we'll get whole new species of junk
       | marketing, telescams and whatnot.
       | 
       |  _My_ prediction is that the first piece of weird will be AI
       | autocomplete. A GPT that takes more context (eg all company
       | emails) built into email  & DM clients... that will escalate
       | quickly. The line between human and machine will blurr.
        
       | chrismarlow9 wrote:
       | For my own life I've boiled it down to a "signal vs noise"
       | problem. Whether it be a human or a bot delivering information
       | isn't really important to me. What's important is the accuracy
       | and proof of the information.
       | 
       | Eliminating the "noise" is pretty easy, just take the "mute
       | everyone" approach. No default subreddits, use ad blockers,
       | actively disable "suggested" content where possible, and
       | periodically review the things I'm getting my "signals" from.
       | 
       | The problem I'm struggling with now is verifying authenticity of
       | references and information. Every solution I can think of (say a
       | chrome plugin that does analysis and can watermark
       | text/video/image content with a "FAKE DETECTED" banner) just
       | becomes a cat and mouse game.
        
       | kristiandupont wrote:
       | I can imagine a future where it's quite easy to fake real people.
       | By gathering information, pictures and maybe even videos of a
       | person, you might be able to deep fake a credible video of them.
       | It might know their address and use pictures and Streetview
       | material to have them "record" a video from their house.
       | 
       | That means that a clever script would be able to figure out who a
       | persons real friends are (that info is easily obtained already
       | today), and create personalised videos from said friends. In such
       | a scenario it might not be the Great Logging off, but it would
       | certainly be a situation where you think "I had breakfast with my
       | friend and he said X to my face, so I can believe it.", but
       | anything online can be considered noise.
        
         | blueridge wrote:
         | At a previous company, we had a standard "About" page with our
         | names and photos, didn't think anything of it. Fast forward a
         | few years and we discovered a bunch of Russian "businesses" who
         | had used our names and photos on their About page. They were
         | selling all sorts of bogus apps and service contracts. We
         | reached out and sent a kind message and asked them to remove
         | our photos, they responded (and apologized!) and said they
         | would remove the content, but of course that never happened.
         | 
         | To this day, when people search for me, they find an old photo
         | and my name associated with a fraudulent company selling shit
         | products and services.
         | 
         | On a related note, a few of my friends have taken down their
         | long standing personal sites and blogs for this very reason. A
         | few bad actors took their photos, their About pages, a bunch of
         | their blog posts, and used them as if they were their own--
         | quoting them, tweeting them, referencing them in "their work",
         | etc. One of them got wrapped up in an elaborate hiring scam
         | where someone used his photo, email address, and employment
         | history from LinkedIn and got all the way through an interview
         | process.
         | 
         | The whole situation was so jarring that he wiped everything--
         | almost a decade of writing, his LinkedIn profile, his Twitter
         | account, all of it.
        
         | mrtksn wrote:
         | Certainly this is within the reach of the tech.
         | 
         | What I'm afraid of is, this will dull people because the
         | computer models would not have the fidelity of a real
         | person(simply because only small portion of humans thoughts are
         | expressed and even less recorder). Many people will prefer to
         | interact with this shallow model of humans instead of real ones
         | in similar manner of porn replacing real sex.
         | 
         | It will create armies of people who have no real skills with
         | working or even interacting with humans. Representing people as
         | avatars and a nickname already created huge issue with
         | perfectly nice people forgetting that they are interacting with
         | real people online, turning into huge jerks. I can imagine how
         | horrible in could become when people are completely
         | disenfranchised from reality.
        
           | irthomasthomas wrote:
           | The precession of simulacra.
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulacra_and_Simulation
        
         | dmurray wrote:
         | Hard to imagine that there couldn't be any kind of trusted
         | (perhaps encrypted, but not necessarily) communication online.
         | 
         | Text conversations are trivial to fake, and WhatsApp could
         | trivially MITM a handful of conversations and tell me my friend
         | said something different and I'd never know. But they have an
         | incentive not to do this at a large scale, because there are
         | benefits of running a worldwide trusted messaging service, and
         | they would fear people would move to alternatives when millions
         | of messages started being adulterated.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | That's a neat thing I kinda want to do right before dying, just
         | taking all of my chat data I can get my hands on, retraining a
         | chatbot on it and have it become the final version of me that
         | can exist for as long as people want it around (aka pay for the
         | server and gpu instance lol).
        
       | jacooper wrote:
       | > culture will co-evolve on a much faster timescale. Cultures
       | that prioritize family, community, regular face-to-face human
       | interaction, strong social support networks, and especially those
       | that have a built-in system for helping young people find
       | spouses, will do better than those that don't.
       | 
       | Maybe I'm wrong, but is there any western culture that values
       | these things?
       | 
       | Maybe east US? Texans etc.
       | 
       | I think countries that are accepting eastern migrants will fare
       | better, since eastern culture typically value these things more,
       | thats in addition to solving the aging solution problem,
       | something westerners are not willing to do(having kids, enough
       | kids).
        
       | tapanjk wrote:
       | > but even if that hits us tomorrow, the amount of raw power
       | that's been unlocked in the last year alone - the tech that's
       | already here - already has the potential to change things in
       | massive waves.
       | 
       | If this is about ChatGPT, we should remember that it is not
       | available in a way that you can build your business applications
       | on top of it in any reliable or meaningful way. It is a very
       | powerful demo of what AI can do, but nothing more yet. Also,
       | OpenAI is spending a lot just to let you and me give it a try and
       | this will not last long. IIRC, they are burning something in the
       | range of 3 million USD per day.
        
         | jnwatson wrote:
         | Still, it will be replicated, then optimized, and eventually
         | cost pennies to run.
         | 
         | The writing is on the wall.
        
           | tapanjk wrote:
           | Well, guess I was wrong. There _is_ a product in the making.
           | [1]
           | 
           | [1]:
           | https://twitter.com/michael_vandi/status/1607422866416619520
        
       | RandomLensman wrote:
       | That world is already there/has never gone away: people already
       | are paying huge premiums for curated data and intelligence,
       | explained and summarised by humans they trust (or at least
       | respect in some way).
        
       | bitwize wrote:
       | I'm reminded of the ending of _Her_ , in which Samantha and the
       | other AIs disconnect from humanity in search of transcendence,
       | and all the humans are left with nothing to do except just do
       | human things together.
        
       | emporas wrote:
       | Spam will flood a lot of places for sure. But there is a
       | solution! We were just talking about it in a lively and
       | informative thread on lichess. [1] A social graph, in which
       | people are confirmed as humans from the outside world as well as
       | from the virtual world, connecting hierarchies of pseudonymous
       | accounts together.
       | 
       | The social graph of reputation systems, has a necessary
       | constraint, it has to be retained in the blockchain so as to be
       | incorruptible by every human power. As soon as a node can be
       | planted by a malicious actor, as part of the social graph, the
       | whole of it becomes invalidated.
       | 
       | Mr Craig Wright calls this "The Metanet", George Gilder calls
       | this "The cryptocosm", other people call it "Web3", Balaji
       | Srinivasan calls it "The network State". I call it, "The internet
       | of one million governments".
       | 
       | [1] https://lichess.org/forum/lichess-feedback/long-playing-
       | play...
       | 
       | Edit: added Balaji Srinivasan
        
         | glass3 wrote:
         | >As soon as a node can be planted by a malicious actor
         | 
         | It's a directed graph that indicate who trusts whom. If you
         | identify a malicious actor, you only have to re-validate the
         | nodes that receive their trust from that actor.
         | 
         | You can also use weights, e.g. to reduce the influence of new
         | nodes.
        
           | emporas wrote:
           | Oh nice, thanks for the details/correction. I am not very
           | familiar with the concept, i haven't implemented a social
           | graph, i do have some general knowledge on the subject.
        
         | d_e_solomon wrote:
         | After the crash of FTX, it's going to take a long time for
         | anyone to trust anything that has blockchain in its
         | description. Fair or unfair, the entire ecosystem is tainted.
         | 
         | I'm also suspicious of claims that an algorithm is uncorrupted
         | by human power. Every computer algorithm is made by people who
         | have human motivations.
        
       | t0lo wrote:
       | What I'm curious about is what will happen when the internet
       | becomes so saturated by AI posts that AI is trained off of an AI
       | internet. Will the quality of AI content degrade?
        
       | Veedrac wrote:
       | How quick the zeitgeist moves, from laughing at OpenAI for
       | pretending their toy has consequences and going into it with
       | caution, to casual acceptance that this represents a
       | transformative and damaging change to the future of the internet.
       | Which, really, is the thing to learn here: not the predictions on
       | what today's nascent technology will do a decade hence, but that
       | what a decade hence will be nascent could well be outside your
       | Overton window today.
        
       | hansmeierbaum wrote:
       | The idea raised in this article is interesting. However, if the
       | technology on the side of the spam producers improves, platforms
       | will follow and improve their technology for recognizing spam.
       | 
       | So, yes, there might be some temporary lemons failures on some
       | platforms, but I would not expect a big logging off to happen on
       | the long-run. After all I think this is a cat-and-mouse game of
       | superior technology in producing / identifying spam.
        
         | lossolo wrote:
         | > platforms will follow and improve their technology for
         | recognizing spam
         | 
         | Written language has patterns, and your response and mine also
         | follow these patterns. Language models like GPT-3 and ChatGPT
         | can learn these patterns because there are finite ways in which
         | humans write text. ChatGPT responses are easy to recognize
         | because it was fine-tuned with specific data to meet chatbot
         | requirements and provide Q&A style responses. In the near
         | future, these language models will be fine-tuned for specific
         | purposes, such as spam, and will mimic human text patterns in a
         | way that will not be distinguishable from real humans.
        
           | emporas wrote:
           | While all of the above are true, there is a variable which
           | was a constant for thousand of years. That is that language
           | is generally static, it doesn't change much over ten, twenty
           | years, or fifty years. It sometimes undergoes significant
           | changes over the centuries.
           | 
           | Well that constant will be transformed to a variable. While
           | GPT can recognize and produce outputs of a language, this
           | tool, or similar tools can be used to produce another
           | language, totally from scratch or a variant of an existing
           | language, instantly.
           | 
           | In the language context, i would argue it is a lot more
           | difficult to produce effective spam than in the image context
           | or video. People will change their language, the model will
           | have to be trained again in the new language, and that is
           | until people up their game and change language again. This is
           | happening already, young people use different language in the
           | internet than older people. I would be surprised if we don't
           | witness in the near future, the internet of a million
           | languages.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | gsatic wrote:
           | So what? How much time in day, do you think you spend reading
           | what random people you dont know are saying?
           | 
           | Who this effects is jobless people.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | How many people on Hacker News do you know, or is that just
             | a way to say you're looking for work right now?
             | 
             | People here have experimented with using GPT-3 to generate
             | comments and content shared here, well before chatGPT was
             | released; while it can sometimes be a bit suspicious, it
             | can also get up-voted:
             | https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/16/21371049/gpt3-hacker-
             | news...
        
               | gsatic wrote:
               | You didn't answer my question. I barely spend more than
               | 15-20 mins a day on HN, so how does it matter if I am
               | reading something useful or not. This is just an
               | imaginary problem like the problem of having 100 million
               | vids of how to boil and egg on youtube. Once you get the
               | info you need from one vid who sits thro the rest. People
               | just tune it out. Like traffic or bar conversations.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Odd flex, but ok.
               | 
               | Assuming the question was
               | 
               | > How much time in day, do you think you spend reading
               | what random people you dont know are saying?
               | 
               | Rather than "so what?", which I will come back to later:
               | For me, probably several hours per day. It's not just
               | here, or twitter/fb, though that's probably an hour by
               | itself, it's also:
               | 
               | * Blog authors (parasocial relationships!) * Newspaper
               | writers * Wikipedia editors * Review writers on Amazon,
               | Google maps * Question and Answer writers on Stack
               | Overflow * The first few comments under some Youtube
               | videos * Comments sections on news stories
               | 
               | (Technically also book authors given the way you phrased
               | that, but that's a different issue and current generation
               | text generators make no difference there anyway).
               | 
               | Now assuming the question was "so what?", because that
               | dovetails into the rest of your spiel:
               | 
               | The problem is not usefulness _to you_ , it's "can this
               | be used to automate convincing you?".
               | 
               | Make a half-decent sales pitch personalised at whoever
               | for whatever: "Boiling eggs? Yeah that's easy, but I find
               | organic is the best and well worth the cost", or "Oh,
               | you're visiting Berlin? Yeah, I had a really great time
               | at $insert_restaurant_here" or "Don't fall for the Lib
               | Dems, they keep saying they can beat the Tories but look
               | what happened when they got into power. That's why I vote
               | $insert_uk_political_party_here". All personalised to
               | just you, in the form of a friendly looking and natural
               | response that probably seems more natural than any of my
               | examples, because chatGPT is only reliably worse than
               | domain experts and I'm _not_ a domain expert in sales.
               | 
               | Also: You replied to me, and I'm a stranger, so we both
               | know you engage with strangers on the internet, QED
               | there's a place where you might get a bot trying to sell
               | you a product or idea while pretending to be human.
               | 
               | Don't make the mistake of thinking the status quo is a
               | good reference point here: Current advertising
               | categorisation on social media sucks (easy way to find
               | out: make GDPR request to FB or Twitter for all the data
               | they have about you. They think I'm interested in
               | languages I can't speak and politics of countries I don't
               | live in).
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | pavel_lishin wrote:
       | > _A Market for Lemons_
       | 
       | > _In which the internet gets clogged with piles of semi-
       | intelligent spam, breaking the default assumption that the
       | "person" you're talking to is human._
       | 
       | Neal Stephenson's novel Anathem briefly mentions something like
       | this as part of the novel's worldbuilding.
        
         | cwmma wrote:
         | Accelerando by Charles Stross has an even more prescient
         | version where humanity dissembles the planets to make giant
         | computers which end up being filled with sentient pyramid
         | schemes.
        
         | shaftoe wrote:
         | Don't you mean Fall: Dodge in Hell?
        
           | pavel_lishin wrote:
           | I don't remember if _Fall_ also talked about this; I only
           | read it once, and don 't remember too many details. But
           | Anathem definitely did; here's an HN comment quoting it:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14554765
        
             | Arainach wrote:
             | The first act of Fall explicitly takes place in a world
             | polarized into micro-groups because AI chatbots generate so
             | much content that it's impossible to determine what's true.
             | It might even talk about the initial act that started the
             | practice, I forget.
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | The internet is not limited to Social networks. The "Market for
       | lemons" has existed for decade, google is a market for lemons
       | where people buy from SEO spam, Google assistant , Siri , amazon
       | are also.
       | 
       | The logging off is a pipe dream for some people, even though they
       | know that humans are informational creatures and that the
       | "offline world" has never lived up to the desirable one since the
       | time books were invented.
       | 
       | Doominess and gloominess is the real disease of our times
        
         | Ensorceled wrote:
         | > Doominess and gloominess is the real disease of our times
         | 
         | I see SIGNIFICANTLY more homeless people in the two cities I
         | frequent than at any other time in my life, there is a snow
         | covered tent city half a kilometer from the glass monstrosity
         | Google has built here and mostly doesn't occupy. Facism is on
         | the rise globally. A third world war is possibly percolating in
         | Europe. Google is soaking up all the bulk of revenue that used
         | to go to publishers. Amazon has destroyed at least half of
         | bookstores.
         | 
         | But sure, I guess gloominess is the issue. Does all of the
         | above make you happy somehow?
        
           | HDThoreaun wrote:
           | Things are undeniably better than they ever were before,
           | especially for those outside the US and Western Europe. We
           | need to work to continue to improve them, but we are in no
           | way going the wrong direction outside of a few small areas
           | such as housing access as you point out.
        
         | clnq wrote:
         | The internet is full of lemons, not only social media, SEO-
         | influenced services, and services where money buys you reach.
         | 
         | If you take any popular medical fact (for example, about
         | diets), you will find countless published academic articles
         | supporting and against it. This extends into other fields like
         | physics, sociology, and politics too. But the contradictions
         | there (while present) are not as overtly visible.
         | 
         | Many popular news outlets are leaning towards reporting in a
         | "flavor" their audience expects and mixing opinions into their
         | reporting.
         | 
         | By some studies, 80%+ of internet users admit to being duped at
         | least once by fake news or misinformation online in 2022.
         | That's the misinformation they spotted. 50%+ Americans say they
         | read fake news online regularly.
         | 
         | As for logging off, according to Reuters Institute, 41% of
         | Americans actively avoided news in 2022. And anecdotally, my
         | friends and I have withdrawn from social media like Reddit,
         | YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and so on significantly
         | this year. It definitely feels like a lot of information online
         | is misinformation, either synthesized intentionally or "broken-
         | telephoned" into fantasy by mainstream media.
         | 
         | I do not know how to deal with this personally but disengage
         | from most of the online world. The signal-to-noise ratio of
         | reliable information in many regions of the internet is meager.
         | I mainly read Hacker News (which also sometimes features
         | contradictory research or news), some academic journals,
         | Wikipedia, some forums in my professional field, and some RSS
         | news sources. Everything else on the internet has become too
         | awash with contradictions and misinformation.
         | 
         | I never thought I'd have to retreat so far from mainstream
         | media and social media. Mass logging off is going to impact
         | these areas of the internet seriously.
         | 
         | I am scared of what AI language models will do to professional
         | blogs, news, and academia. Editors and peer-reviewers there are
         | already overwhelmed with unreliable information.
        
           | drdrek wrote:
           | Most probably it will solve itself. Altavista was a useful
           | search engine until it was not, than it was replaced by
           | google. Google was a useful search engine and its getting
           | primed for a replacement. Usually things do not pan out as
           | Utopia or Dystopia but some human middle ground of kinda
           | shitty balance :)
        
           | t0lo wrote:
           | I am interested to see which social media platforms double
           | down on welcoming ai generated content and catering to the
           | remaining users that prefer addictive content to social
           | connection.
           | 
           | This is speculative but we may see a very strong pivot from
           | the "social" aspect to the addictive content aspect in
           | publicly listed social media companies in order to continue
           | to appease shareholders, which could, possibly, accelerate
           | this potential reemphasis on real world communication and
           | connection.
        
             | seydor wrote:
             | Yep. Customizable TV is the future
        
         | s5300 wrote:
         | >> Doominess and gloominess is the real disease of our times
         | 
         | Seems more like extremely wealthy sociopaths & psychopaths that
         | thrive in a capitalistic system are. Don't think people would
         | be so doomy & gloomy if it weren't for those with the means to
         | do so trying to shape society into their dystopian dreams.
         | 
         | Two examples if needed:
         | 
         | Thiel & Davos family
        
           | eru wrote:
           | Have a look inside Mao's China or Soviet Russia to cure you
           | of the notion that capitalism is special here.
           | 
           | Doom and gloom have been around for longer than a money based
           | economy, too.
        
             | s5300 wrote:
             | My comment is based around his specific words of "disease
             | of our times", being unrelated to the timeframes you've
             | mentioned.
        
             | Ensorceled wrote:
             | Ah yes, whenever someone complains about unchecked
             | capitalism, there is always someone to bring up Soviet
             | Russia.
        
             | collyw wrote:
             | They arrive at the same endpoint through different means.
             | Too much concentrated power and wealth.
        
           | notadev wrote:
           | What about society being shaped in the dreams of other
           | wealthy people, like Karl Schwab or George Soros? Is that OK?
        
             | collyw wrote:
             | They are all WEF cronies.
        
         | notadev wrote:
         | Can you elaborate on what you mean by doom and gloom being the
         | real problem? Are you saying it's more of a perception issue
         | that can be changed by the user?
        
           | seydor wrote:
           | No i mean things like, this article: That AI is so bad that
           | people will want to run away. As far as i m concerned AI is a
           | positive and desirable change in the world
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | It still seems derivative, not creative. It is damn good at
             | it and will only get better but still derivative from my
             | limited experience playing with it.
        
       | pmontra wrote:
       | This is why I quit social media years ago. There is no difference
       | between a stream of posts from strangers and a stream of posts
       | from bots. What I care is interaction with friends and FB
       | wouldn't give it to me or not as effectively as WhatsApp and
       | Telegram. So I ended up with WhatsApp groups and Telegram
       | channels where I know first hand most of the people or more
       | rarely I'm at one hop from them. The only place where I regularly
       | interact with strangers is HN.
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | So does this mean you wouldn't qualify HN as social media?
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Reddit and HN are more in the subgroup of what you could call
           | antisocial media.
        
       | brundolf wrote:
       | For me this feels spot-on. But I wanted to comment on one thing:
       | 
       | > Fourth, we'll see a resurgence and even fetishization of
       | explicitly "offline" culture, where the "Great Logging Off"
       | becomes literal
       | 
       | I actually think the author undersold this a bit, because even
       | once you've siloed into social buckets with people you already
       | know- as long as it's digital communication, _you can 't quite be
       | sure it's really them_. Even if you're voice-chatting while
       | playing a game together, even if you're video-chatting, we'll
       | reach a point where that could all be faked.
       | 
       | You could rely on cryptography to make sure someone is who they
       | say they are, but that requires extra hoops and a basic
       | understanding of how to use it and what is and isn't trustworthy.
       | Most people probably won't bother
       | 
       | So at some point _only_ physical contact will be fully reliable
       | 
       | (Until, I guess, Musk's brain-computer interface takes off. Then
       | nothing is real)
        
         | ls15 wrote:
         | With cryptographic signatures I could at least verify that
         | something stems from the same account that I previously agreed
         | with, but this would require people to be able to manage their
         | own private keys.
         | 
         | Actually nothing would stop people from signing their own
         | comments today and sometimes it is done.
         | 
         | With e2ee messengers I feel pretty confident that a message
         | comes from the right / real person after I verified their
         | public key.
        
           | PeterisP wrote:
           | It can't provide confidence that the message comes from the
           | right/real person, because even without any breach of secrets
           | (which happen even to competent people/organizations) all
           | that gives you is confidence that the message comes from
           | someone authorized by that right/real person. It could be
           | another person, or it could be data generated by an automated
           | system to which they gave the credentials for whatever reason
           | - historically rich people used personal secretaries for
           | writing all kinds of responses including personal ones ("I'm
           | so grateful for your invitation to visit, let's ..." didn't
           | necessarily mean that the actual person even read your
           | invitation), and if an "artificial secretary" becomes good
           | enough, people will use it in future.
        
             | ls15 wrote:
             | > all that gives you is confidence that the message comes
             | from someone authorized by that right/real person.
             | 
             | Which is good enough for many applications, I think. With
             | friends and family, I am pretty confident, that none of
             | them deploy a personal assistant to answer my encrypted
             | messages. As opposed to a messenger where the service
             | provider can inject ads into the messages.
             | 
             | How do I know that a person that I speak to IRL is really
             | saying what they think or even really is who they claim to
             | be if I don't know them well? A rest of uncertainty always
             | remains.
        
           | exit wrote:
           | > but this would require people to be able to manage their
           | own private keys
           | 
           | a few generations ago social networking would have seemed
           | infeasible because it would require wide spread literacy
           | (along with many other reasons of course). widespread private
           | key management doesn't seem that infeasible to me.
        
             | ls15 wrote:
             | I agree. Key management can be learned (but still has to be
             | learned). I think that cryptocurrency made the biggest
             | impact in this area so far.
        
           | dinvlad wrote:
           | How does one really verify someone's public key in this
           | situation? E.g. a fake account would presumably be able to
           | generate a fake website of themselves that looks at least
           | semi-legit, and use it to post their pubkey. What would give
           | us confidence the key comes from a legit person?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | groestl wrote:
         | > So at some point only physical contact will be fully reliable
         | 
         | But then there are twins, so... The "problem" pre-existed.
        
           | OkayPhysicist wrote:
           | It doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to be good
           | enough. In real life, the likelihood of twins perfectly
           | emulating each other, and then using that to deceive others
           | for anything but playful intent is low enough to be
           | acceptable. If a solution is good enough that exceptional
           | corner cases are rare and typically harmless, then it's good
           | enough for adoption.
        
       | angarg12 wrote:
       | Regarding the Third point, I can already see part of this
       | movement.
       | 
       | I've become disenchanted with the quality of the discourse.
       | Specifically as I've entered a more senior stage of my career,
       | I'm looking to mingle with like-minded folks in similar
       | situations.
       | 
       | Thing is, these folks don't usually lurk online, and even if they
       | do, their voices get overwhelmed by the flood of (mostly low
       | quality) content. I'd be happy to pay a fee to become a member of
       | a community with vetted participants.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | I've long had a theory that services that demand an upfront
         | payment for an ongoing service will find the payment works
         | against their growth goals and remove it.
         | 
         | For example, businesses that involve $$$ reusable delivery
         | containers don't work well because they want to give first-time
         | customers a _discount_ not a _surcharge_. Whatsapp was
         | ridiculously cheap - something like $1 /year - but they still
         | decided that worked against their network effects.
         | 
         | There are some markets where you pay upfront _and_ on an
         | ongoing basis, like buying a printer and ink or a games console
         | and games - but they often subsidise the upfront cost with
         | profit from the ongoing costs.
         | 
         | I'm not sure how well a $5-to-join social network would work
         | for that reason. Sites like metafilter survive - but with five
         | moderators and one coder, they're not going to be replacing
         | twitter, facebook or HN any time soon.
        
           | angarg12 wrote:
           | For me it's not about a business, it's about a community. The
           | fee is just a barrier to entry to filter participants.
           | 
           | I believe even a nominal amount would keep most people out,
           | and that's by design. Also you don't need huge numbers to
           | build a personally interesting community. Even a few dozen
           | dedicated people can be plenty.
        
           | smiley1437 wrote:
           | > Whatsapp was ridiculously cheap - something like $1/year -
           | but they still decided that worked against their network
           | effects.
           | 
           | My boss of a multimillion dollar company took offense at
           | being charged $1/year to use Whatsapp back when it came out
           | and started getting popular, so it did have an effect
           | 
           | My eyes practically rolled out of my head when I heard him
           | complain but that really stuck with me
        
           | wwweston wrote:
           | Metafilter is a pretty interesting case -- deliberately
           | limiting growth seems to have worked out pretty well for the
           | site over most of its existence, and growth goals have always
           | been about other qualities than sheer numbers. It doesn't
           | need to compete with anybody else on scale.
           | 
           | I'd say HN is one of the few forums competitive on quality of
           | discourse vs metafilter, but its business model is
           | essentially loss-leader for VC/incubator activities, so it's
           | a bit of an odd duck itself.
        
           | chii wrote:
           | > $5-to-join social network
           | 
           | if those site could convince important/popular people for
           | exclusivity, they could pull it off; i imagine it can work
           | like spotify exclusive podcasts, or some such, since most
           | people don't actually produce content, but consume.
        
             | linuxftw wrote:
             | I feel like twitter is trying to do this? $8/mo for premium
             | members, all the celebrities are there already.
        
               | Ensorceled wrote:
               | Well, with Twitter, the $8 ($11 on mobile) "premium"
               | members are pretty much all people I would rather avoid.
        
           | nisegami wrote:
           | >will find the payment works against their growth goals and
           | remove it
           | 
           | Their mistake is having growth as a goal rather than a happy
           | community.
        
             | theFletch wrote:
             | Quality over quantity. Not everything has to appeal to the
             | masses to make a good business.
        
           | angarg12 wrote:
           | It's a matter of mental model. I'm thinking more "private
           | members club" than social network.
        
           | flir wrote:
           | Sometimes, growth isn't the point (I too point to
           | metafilter). Cash up front is a barrier.
        
         | throwaway2037 wrote:
         | You wrote: <<I can already see part of this movement.>>
         | 
         | We can summarise this comment as "Eternal September"-ism.
         | 
         | Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September
         | 
         | Be wary of falling trap to the feeling of: <<It has never been
         | worse.>>
         | 
         | In late high school, watching the daily local television news
         | around 6PM, I began to realise that when local news programmes
         | interviewed local residents, they were _always_ seeking the
         | same response:  <<It has never been worse.>>
         | 
         | Examples: Traffic; politics; manners; dress code; respect for
         | elders; price of "milk and bread" (ask anyone in their 90s
         | about it!); Internet discourse; buying/selling used cars; kids
         | driving cars; fashion; fast food; the latest technology
         | (radios, TVs, Internet, video games, mobile phones) ...,
         | etcetera!
         | 
         | My point: Do not assume that things that are different from
         | when you were young(er) are automatically worse. Really,
         | really: Try harder. In 1920, "old people" were complaining
         | about "young people" listening to too much radio -- made them
         | "soft". Repeat for television in 1950. Repeat for Internet in
         | 1990s. Repeat for mobile phones in 2010s. Repeat for video
         | games in 2020s. I see this pattern repeat over and over again,
         | and I chuckle to myself when I see old men complain about it!
         | 
         | As a counterpoint: This website is an amazing
         | counterpoint/weight that "all things are getting worse all the
         | time". I have been here for a few years now, and this community
         | always manages to adapt to changing standards and conditions...
         | and produce inspiring and thoughtful discourse about recent
         | news.
         | 
         | And now for my over-the-top inspiring comment to end this post:
         | Simply put: We, HN community, are the antithesis for Sturgeon's
         | law "ninety percent of everything is crap"! (Wiki:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law)
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | blueridge wrote:
         | I ran a private online bookclub a few years ago, really tried
         | to filter and vet the people who wanted to join. Ended up with
         | a decently sized group of wonderful people and lots of long
         | form written discussion--we read good books and talked about
         | good books, it was lovely. I approached the screening/vetting
         | process as if I was hiring. I got some angry emails about the
         | approach, made it seem "exclusive" and elitist, but it worked
         | out well for the group.
         | 
         | I'll launch the next iteration after the first of the year,
         | this time there might be a fee attached, at least a minimal
         | amount to pay for the SaaS product we'll use to organize and
         | collaborate.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | calvinmorrison wrote:
           | Paying a fee is a great barrier for weeding people out. I was
           | a on a pool team for several years and one season I drew the
           | unlucky lot of being the captain. This mostly involves
           | texting everyone on a weekly basis to ensure they would come
           | out, and they had the $10 they needed in cash on hand to pay
           | me when they showed up. I hated it and chased people all the
           | time to pay, they owed me from last week, didn't show up,
           | etc.
           | 
           | The next season I told everyone to pay up front. $120
           | dollars, cash. Same price as every week in total, but up
           | front.
           | 
           | Turns out when people paid up front they came more often and
           | we had no payment issues from there out.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | georgeecollins wrote:
         | The third point also made complete sense to me. My family has
         | been using a Discord server to communicate for years now, and
         | at first people thought that was strange. It's social media for
         | people you really know and interact with, not a BS news feed.
         | Think of it as a real network, not a fake network or an
         | entertainment network. And a dozen other services function in
         | the same way.
         | 
         | But I get invited into discord servers for developers I work
         | with, interests, I share, and I think it is getting to be more
         | and more common. Some people will spend time in fake networks
         | and probably not get a lot of value out of them other than
         | entertainment. And others will gravitate to real networks for
         | communication.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | It isn't so much about vetting participants than about
         | moderating the discourse , which is hard to do right, and
         | usually relegated to the few people who are willing to do it
         | for free , which is bad quality (like reddit)
         | 
         | Ai can be used to moderate discussions however , if it is
         | trained to remove low effort in an unbiased way
        
           | blueridge wrote:
           | In my experience, the more you vet participants the less you
           | have to moderate.
        
           | visarga wrote:
           | > It isn't so much about vetting participants than about
           | moderating the discourse
           | 
           | Vetting, moderating ... none of them scale well when done
           | manually. The solution I see is that everyone have their own
           | AI filters, customised as they see fit. You can include or
           | exclude specific people and topics, make it as diverse or
           | narrow as you like, allow challenging opinions or not. One of
           | the filters can be to detect AI bots. Don't make the world
           | conform to you, be selective and just skip the bad parts.
           | 
           | I think people are going to trust their own AI tools that are
           | running on their own computers more than they trust other
           | people and especially other AI. We already know we can't face
           | the future onslaught of information with the old methods, we
           | need help. User controlled AI is going to be our first line
           | of defence and our safe space, "a room of one's own" where
           | there is no tracking and thought policing.
           | 
           | With the advent of large language models we already have
           | that, indirectly - the LM is a synthesis of everything, but
           | we let it generate only conditional to our intentions. All
           | the view points are in there for us to reach, it depends on
           | us how we relate to them.
           | 
           | AI should be like a cell membrane separating outside from the
           | inside. It should keep the bad stuff out, take the necessary
           | nutrients and nurture the life within.
        
             | rjtavares wrote:
             | Yeah, I really want this to happen.
             | 
             | I follow really interesting people for their thoughts about
             | one topic (say, Movies), but whose tweets about topics like
             | politics I really dislike (not necessarily things I
             | disagree with, usually I just dislike the tone).
             | 
             | Shouldn't be too hard to fine tune a LLM to do this,
             | definitely something worth a try.
        
             | seydor wrote:
             | > none of them scale well when done manually.
             | 
             | Then maybe we should reduce the scale of the megaphones.
             | Current networks are just unpleasant because it's mass
             | hysteria on global level. Scale isn't everything.
             | 
             | I think future forum owners will be continuously finetuning
             | their AI filters to fit their community standards.
        
           | eru wrote:
           | Why does it need to be 'unbiased'? This would work as well:
           | 
           | > Ai can be used to moderate discussions however , if it is
           | trained to remove low effort [or otherwise undesirable
           | content]?
        
             | seydor wrote:
             | OK, but i wouldn't participate in such discussion. i
             | believe most people like to keep their minds open to ideas
        
           | wkat4242 wrote:
           | I don't think the discussion between carefully vetted
           | participants needs to be moderated. We go for moderation too
           | quickly these days. Of course if someone goes crazy they
           | should be banned but in less extreme scenarios a well chosen
           | group should behave, just like it's but necessary to moderate
           | a social gathering in real life.
        
             | seydor wrote:
             | but it s exclusionary which defeats the purpose of the
             | internet as an open forum
        
               | Ensorceled wrote:
               | > the purpose of the internet as an open forum
               | 
               | The purpose of the internet hasn't been to be an open
               | forum since sysadmins were blocking the talk.* hierarchy
               | and kicking entire nodes off of usenet for spam or abuse.
        
               | seydor wrote:
               | yet here we are
        
               | Ensorceled wrote:
               | yet here we are and "here" is not an "open forum"
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | What is the underlying purpose of an open forum? Is it
               | the openness itself, or something that openness allows? I
               | think it's the latter: allowing people with common
               | interests who wouldn't otherwise connect in real life to
               | interact meaningfully.
               | 
               | If that's the case, 100.00% open might not be optimal if
               | 99.9% open yields better results for the resulting
               | community.
        
               | seydor wrote:
               | different forums can have different purposes. Personally
               | i prefer the public kind, which expose me to different
               | ideas. The common interests i prefer to discuss in real
               | life
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | > I'd be happy to pay a fee to become a member of a community
         | with vetted participants
         | 
         | You better start believing in vetted online communities Miss
         | Turner, you're in one!
         | 
         | It may not be vetting by moderators, but HN's dated frontend
         | definitely acts as a forcefield against many kinds of people.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | Genuinely, what do you see as dated? My only other point of
           | comparison is Reddit so I suspect I'm behind the times.
        
             | altairprime wrote:
             | Do you use old or new interface?
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | Old, I think? I saw a friends and his was this stream of
               | pictures and gifs, whereas mine is entirely titles with
               | the occasional thumb nail.
        
           | kruxigt wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | OctopusLupid wrote:
           | I feel like Lobsters has better quality discourse nowadays
           | though, due to its much more explicit vetting system. I am
           | not part of that website, yet I love reading the comment
           | section there.
        
             | im3w1l wrote:
             | Signed up day one with a one char username. Tried to use it
             | a few years later and by then it had been deleted.
             | Understandable I guess, but I'm still salty about it. Just
             | had to get that story off my chest.
        
             | nerdbert wrote:
             | Just looked at lobsters and there are zero comments on
             | almost all posts.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | Q.E.D.
        
             | citizenkeen wrote:
             | What is this? My Google-fu is weak.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | lobste.rs is what I can find. Likely tries to make its
               | SEO as bad as possible to avoid discovery, which is kinda
               | funny.
        
               | nataz wrote:
               | Was lobster.rs ways invite only? I thought I remembered
               | having an account a long time ago...but my email isn't
               | registered when I go to reset my PW. Because it's a much
               | smaller community it does suffer from low comment counts
               | on posts. Comments are the best part of HN.
        
               | jakewins wrote:
               | Invite only to write, open to read. But the main trick is
               | tracking the invite tree - if the person that invited you
               | gets banned, you get banned too (or need to appeal to
               | have your "branch" of the invite tree adopted by someone
               | else).
        
               | mikewarot wrote:
               | So if jcs somehow gets banned, the whole place shuts
               | down?
               | 
               | I find the idea of the site intriguing yet I'm not sure
               | what I could contribute.
        
               | throw10920 wrote:
               | jcs started the site, so him getting banned would be
               | quite a feat indeed!
               | 
               | (although it would be an amusing way to shut the site
               | down if he gets tired of maintaining it...)
        
               | arthurcolle wrote:
               | It is largely the same as HN
        
               | OkayPhysicist wrote:
               | Except HN is a mix of tech-bro entrepreneur types and
               | developers, whereas the other site is exclusively
               | developers (with an emphasis on open source).
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | monksy wrote:
           | Reddit when they had their old frontend and bad mobile
           | expierence was much better than it is now.
        
         | Kye wrote:
         | I find a lot of this on Mastodon's branch of the fediverse.
         | It's getting worse with the migration from Twitter, but I'm
         | optimistic that the fact that it isn't Twitter and doesn't want
         | to be Twitter will deter most of the more obnoxious people and
         | help those that make it through blend their uniqueness with
         | what's already there in a healthy and prosocial way.
        
         | neilv wrote:
         | This used to partly happen by age.
         | 
         | Most notably, kids were in school with people their age, adults
         | were at work, etc. 1st grader intellect and emotional
         | interactions partitioned from 5th grade, partitioned from 9th,
         | partitioned from college, partitioned from post-college.
         | 
         | For another example, the "grownups' table" and the "kids'
         | table" at a holiday dinner.
         | 
         | Though, as a kid, I definitely benefited from listening in on
         | the grownups on the Internet.
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | I don't know when it happened exactly, but I have noticed the
         | top comments on youtube/instagram/fb are always something
         | completely inane like 3 heart emojis or something. It was
         | always baffling that any kind of meritocratic system that
         | ranked comments would result in something so useless being
         | placed at the top.
        
         | ClumsyPilot wrote:
         | > I'd be happy to pay a fee to become a member of a community
         | with vetted participants.
         | 
         | FreeMasons and premium golf clubs!
        
           | bilbo0s wrote:
           | Problem is, both can still be filled with less than bright
           | people.
           | 
           | If you have an interest in, say, the math behind various AI
           | techniques. Or maybe an interest in digging into the
           | differences between different, (but seemingly similar),
           | cancer therapies. (Think TIL v CAR-T). You won't get that at
           | the golf club. You will need some kind of vetted discussion
           | group.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | Looks like you want to make a post-grad.
        
           | angarg12 wrote:
           | Golf clubs do the job, but I don't think I'll find many like-
           | minded folks in there.
        
         | NoToP wrote:
         | I recently have been discussing pricing models for quality
         | curation rather than profit per se with a friend. The obvious
         | advantage is that it's a simple, objective, broadly applicable
         | means to distill a baseline of quality. The obvious
         | disadvantage is that it is biased towards those with the most
         | disposable income (and willingness to spend), which depending
         | on the topic of the forum may or may not correlate with quality
         | of insight/opinion. Based on what I've seen of /r/lounge, I
         | conclude curating a community with price mechanisms alone
         | doesn't lead anywhere interesting. But perhaps it can amplify
         | quality on top of some other mechanism.
        
         | donkeyd wrote:
         | > their voices get overwhelmed by the flood of (mostly low
         | quality) content
         | 
         | I have the same issue. People place so much trust in their
         | preferred sources of information and don't question anything
         | they read. Because of this I have a hard time discussing
         | anything beyond the most basic things with many friends, since
         | they just repeat talking points and opinions of others.
         | 
         | It's so enlightening when I do find someone who's well read on
         | a subject and can have an actual conversation about it. Even
         | better if they have a different opinion and give you some new
         | bit of information that makes you think about your opinions or
         | perception of knowledge. Or, when you can agree to disagree
         | because you have the similar understanding of a subject, but
         | have different values or preferences. Moments like that can
         | make me really happy sometimes.
        
           | m_fayer wrote:
           | I don't think the root cause here is excessive trust in
           | preferred sources. What's actually at play here, is most
           | peoples weakness at perspective taking. Truly understanding a
           | given issue requires the ability to have your own perspective
           | and to give equal credence to the other plausible
           | perspectives. Many people do not pause to consider alien
           | perspectives, and are disoriented when confronted with them.
           | Therefore, they don't seek out alien perspectives in order to
           | avoid the sense of disorientation that would result, and
           | that's why they stick to media that share their perspective,
           | and even punish said media when it offers alternative
           | perspectives.
           | 
           | People have always been this way, but the Internet and social
           | media are really not helping.
        
             | didericis wrote:
             | The opposite is also true. People who love seeking out
             | alien perspectives have a virtually unlimited amount of
             | ability to find and commingle with whatever community they
             | can think of online.
             | 
             | I think the optimism of the early internet was due to a
             | dominance of users with that kind of personality. It wasn't
             | apparent to that type of person that others are not excited
             | by that perspective hopping opportunity and not only would
             | not take advantage of it once being online was more
             | accessible, but would actively use the same technology to
             | further silo and entrench themselves.
        
         | motohagiography wrote:
         | If you want a sustainable vetted community, pick a channel,
         | build a funnel, skim the cream.
         | 
         | Like startups, communities _are_ growth and sucessful ones grow
         | at an incremental replacement+ rate, where ones that grow
         | explosively fall over on their own weight, and ones that
         | sustain a base level just die. A plan for a vetted community is
         | a system of harmonious growth that requires a funnel and
         | conversion scheme that yields vetted members. I see orgs
         | spinning their wheels and arguing over the merits of individual
         | candidates when their real problem is they have no funnel to
         | simply select the best n% from.
        
         | z0r wrote:
         | A key part of the Something Awful forum's success was the $10
         | registration fee required to create an account.
         | 
         | Discussion can't scale beyond a certain number of active user
         | accounts without a large drop in quality. It's kind of hard to
         | tell what that limit is because every forum has a large number
         | of mostly quiet lurkers who simply want to read and follow the
         | discourse. SA's $10 fee created a barrier to entry, and the
         | culture of bans being regularly handed out to bad posters
         | encouraged people to lurk until they were ready to make good
         | posts. Upvotes and downvotes as popularized by reddit and
         | reddit-like forums served as a kind of substitute for that
         | effect but they don't work well with as many users as those
         | websites have.
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | These closed groups seem to be too inbred, too like minded. For
         | some things that's probably ok and good, but for creative
         | solutions, I find I need to hear it all and see it from many
         | angles.
        
           | OkayPhysicist wrote:
           | The trick is to find a broad enough frontier that you still
           | have a mix of discourse, while still excluding people who
           | will tend towards unproductive garbage. For example, my
           | service organization at university: As a whole, the group
           | leaned firmly socialist (selecting for people who were
           | enthused about feeding the homeless tends to do that), but
           | the firm "someone will veto this person's membership
           | nomination" line was somewhere around the middle of the
           | Democratic party: "We need to fix things, but maybe that
           | doesn't require revolution". Thus we ended up with a
           | perfectly wide range of discourse, between the just-left of
           | Obama and the anarchists, without including people who were
           | fundamentally at odds with the groups mission of affecting
           | positive change.
        
         | jes wrote:
         | You might enjoy LessWrong[1].
         | 
         | 1. https://lesswrong.com
        
           | drblue wrote:
           | LessWrong is, sadly, an example of a forum that got flooded
           | with low quality content. It's been Septembered beyond
           | recognition from what it was in the early 2010s.
        
       | oli5679 wrote:
       | The current quality of human-generated online content is not
       | uniformly high.
       | 
       | I rely heavily on search engines and recommendation systems, but
       | these are gamed by SEO spam, and flame-war political content.
       | 
       | I want the quality of the content I see to be as high as
       | possible, irrespective of whether it has an AI or human author,
       | and if an LLM can write an excellent Stack Overflow answer/movie
       | review, I'd be interested to read it.
        
       | SergeAx wrote:
       | There already is an OpenAI API to detect texts made by bots. I
       | see a browser extension which tells if selected text is GPT
       | bullshit and also marks the whole page as infested and shares
       | that data across all userbase.
        
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