[HN Gopher] 1k True Fans (2008)
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       1k True Fans (2008)
        
       Author : Tomte
       Score  : 76 points
       Date   : 2022-12-25 20:06 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (kk.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (kk.org)
        
       | grepLeigh wrote:
       | 1,000 true fans is an essay about a thousand die-hard fans paying
       | a content creator $100/year, which comes out to 100k before taxes
       | and expenses.
       | 
       | I'd argue that if you're smart enough to be reading this website,
       | you're smart enough to create and sell a piece of software to 10
       | businesses. If you can add 2% of revenue/quarter or save 5-10% of
       | an expense, you can name your price (as long as it's below the
       | amount of revenue you generated or money you saved).
       | Paradoxically, it's easier to charge lots of money vs. convince
       | lots of people to give you a little bit of money. If you don't
       | believe me, I encourage you to run a time-boxed experiment where
       | you attempt to do both for 1 month. Post your findings to
       | HackerNews!
       | 
       | This might seem more boring compared to 1,000 fans (1,000 people
       | who follow you is a great dopamine hit), but it's also much
       | easier!
        
         | rafale wrote:
         | > I'd argue that if you're smart enough to be reading this
         | website...
         | 
         | I would agree that the average IQ (or potential in general) of
         | the HN readers is more than that of the general population, but
         | I disagree there is any minimum threshold here in any capacity
         | that warrant your statement. Many readers here can't code at
         | all, or couldn't learn to well enough to build and market
         | software.
        
         | moneywoes wrote:
         | Brilliant point.
         | 
         | May I ask if anyone is aware what type of businesses to target?
         | SMB?
         | 
         | I always thought enterprise has super long sale cycles and
         | won't trust a new product easily ( more decision makers) but to
         | get 10 businesses to pay $833 wouldn't that need enterprise
         | customers not SMB?
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | This again? 1k true fans, like the 10k hours rule popularized by
       | Gladwell or the Purple Cow by Godin, etc. sounds better on paper
       | than in practice, but there are always caveats and major
       | survivorship bias. Getting those 1k fans is quite hard, as it
       | turns out, maybe impossible even though it's not that many on an
       | absolute basis. According to Kevin Kelly, a true fan is more than
       | just a Twitter follower or a Facebook like. It's someone who is a
       | paying customer or will refer others.
       | 
       | https://greyenlightenment.com/2022/06/26/1000-true-fans-long...
       | 
       | How do you get those 1k fans? Hard enough just getting 1000 hits
       | to a website, 1000 people to even click a link, etc.
       | 
       | It's like MLM. "All you need is 2 people ..and then they tell 2
       | people, etc."
        
       | mustafabisic1 wrote:
       | Every time I've read this article it hit differently.
       | 
       | Reading 1 (2016): Oh man it'd be great to have 1k true fans. This
       | guy makes it easy. Reading 2 (2019): Now I have some things in
       | life and I should build, how hard could it be. You try and fail.
       | Reading 3 (2022): You've gained even more experience and go for
       | it hard. You realize that the guy had disclaimers across the
       | article (like this: The truth is that cultivating a thousand true
       | fans is time consuming, sometimes nerve racking, and not for
       | everyone. )
       | 
       | Not sure what the 4th reading will bring, but if you're a remote
       | working parent check out my work - https://thursdaydigest.com/
       | 
       | Not sure what the
       | 
       | It especially hits differently now that I'm a builder.
        
       | yunruse wrote:
       | In general I think this is why embracing tiered levels of
       | payment/subscription seems to be working for a lot of people --
       | it captures the fan-intensity curve, providing a structure which
       | is both fit to hyper-fans and casual fans alike, whatever the
       | business model is. This seems to explain to me the rise of tiered
       | models (Patreon, Kickstarter, ads-or-premium, freemium apps,
       | etc), and why DLCs and sequels tend to be more popular in media.
       | 
       | Heuristics like these seem to work by exploiting general
       | properties of this Pareto-y curve. Obviously people in real life
       | don't necessarily follow curves... but as a total economics
       | laywoman, it is intriguing to see how, similarly to a supply-
       | demand curve for physical goods, a Zipfian curve of "fan
       | intensity vs frequency" (as shown in the article) has sort of
       | begun to show itself in various places.
        
       | willhinsa wrote:
       | You only need 1 true fan if it's the right fan!
       | 
       | There was a (uploaded to TikTok) video I saw where this guy had
       | 18 followers on YouTube, and just was not getting any kind of
       | traction at all. I mean some traction but not much -- only 18
       | followers! Was about to quit. Then all of a sudden he got
       | contacted by Oprah Winfrey's people about hosting a TV show about
       | the ideas that he talked about in his videos.
       | 
       | It turns out that one of the 18 followers he had on YouTube was
       | Oprah Winfrey's hair stylist, and Oprah was talking to her about
       | this project she was trying to get started, and the stylist
       | mentioned this one YouTube account she loved who was all about
       | that topic, and the rest is history.
       | 
       | Every single person who watches your video is a unique human
       | individual, and magic can happen from just one spark, from just
       | one person!
        
       | neilv wrote:
       | This is part of why I abandoned my one-stop book on practical
       | software engineering in a powerful fringe language.
       | 
       | Rather than 1,000 true fans who'd buy anything I create, for $100
       | per fan per year... I could invest half a year of intense work on
       | the book, and be pretty sure at least 10 people would buy it for
       | $25, out of a sense of obligation. $50 would be pushing my luck.
        
       | cgag wrote:
       | My friend showed me a cool series of photography books he'd
       | backed on Kickstarter called Vanishing Asia. Only after we'd
       | finished flipping through them did I realize they were by Kevin
       | Kelly. I just looked up the campaign
       | (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/kk-org/vanishing-asia):
       | 2,348 backers pledged $603,420 to help bring this project to
       | life.
        
       | fxtentacle wrote:
       | Reminds me of this story:
       | 
       | Influencer with 2 million "fans" fails to sell 252 t-shirts out
       | of her new collection.
       | 
       | https://de.style.yahoo.com/influencerin-mit-2-millionen-fans...
        
       | MrLeap wrote:
       | Does anyone have any suggestions where I could go looking for
       | fans? I'm making a text editor/game where you write text
       | documents with tentacle arms. Learn ritual magic based on what
       | you write / activate machines by writing.
       | 
       | I've got about 1400 followers on twitter, had a few semi-
       | successful posts on reddit. Tiktok did less well. My weathervane
       | is currently pointed towards doing more on YouTube. Enough people
       | have downloaded the demo on steam that a few novels worth of text
       | has probably been written with it, so that's fun. I'm not at a
       | point where I can discern my count of who is a _true fan_, but
       | there's probably a few in there.
        
         | bhaak wrote:
         | If it's a game I wonder why you tried TikTok but not Twitch?
         | 
         | That would probably need more time involvement than TikTok but
         | most game livestreams are still on Twitch.
         | 
         | Although from your description I'm not sure how much of a
         | spectators game it is.
        
       | coldtea wrote:
       | This idea reminds me of something I've read on some old blog post
       | about enterpreneurship.
       | 
       | So, the guys starting the company were excited, because they said
       | "We know the odds are small, but we don't need much, if just 1 in
       | 1000 buys our product we're rich, as that's like 350K people in
       | the US. And how difficult would be to get 1 in 1000 to buy our
       | stuff with a little marketing? It's a great product anyway! Heck,
       | if just 1 in 10,000 buys our product, that's still 35K sales,
       | enough to bootstrap the company and make some decent profit! And
       | 1 in 10,000 should be trivial!"
       | 
       | Ultimately, though the message the author of the post got from
       | that business plan failing miserably, is that there's always the
       | posibility of 0 in 1000 buying their product...
       | 
       | "Just get 1000 true fans" downplays the difficulty.
        
         | Mtinie wrote:
         | Does it downplay the difficulty?
         | 
         | As an artist, I appreciate the statement because it reminds me
         | to appropriately scope what tiers of "success" can mean.
         | 
         | I have zero illusions about the ease of convincing 1000 people
         | to trade their money for works I've produced. But 1000 people
         | is a small enough number that I can conceive of in my minds eye
         | and then plan concrete steps to try to make it happen.
        
         | essayist wrote:
         | Kelly writes:                 The truth is that cultivating a
         | thousand true fans is time consuming, sometimes nerve racking,
         | and not for everyone. Done well (and why not do it well?) it
         | can become another full-time job. At best it will be a
         | consuming and challenging part-time task that requires ongoing
         | skills.
         | 
         | I'd add now, mostly from unsuccessful experience, _what does it
         | take the first fan, and then the next one, and the one after
         | that?_ For a lot of people, it 's still some version of _and
         | then magic happens_.
         | 
         | Bonus true story: I worked for an economic
         | consulting/data/analytical software timesharing firm in the
         | early '80s. They could see that PCs were going to be a huge
         | threat, so they tried to sell "data kits". For instance (and
         | I'm making up the numbers), for $50 you could buy a download of
         | 10 years of GDP data or similar.
         | 
         | Their market logic was: if we just get 1% of the PC market,
         | we'll be rich.
         | 
         | Spoiler: we didn't get 0.1%.
        
         | ugjka wrote:
         | If you read their definition of a true fan they sound like
         | borderline insane
         | 
         | >A true fan is defined as a fan that will buy anything you
         | produce. These diehard fans will drive 200 miles to see you
         | sing; they will buy the hardback and paperback and audible
         | versions of your book; they will purchase your next figurine
         | sight unseen; they will pay for the "best-of" DVD version of
         | your free youtube channel; they will come to your chef's table
         | once a month.
        
           | actionablefiber wrote:
           | Yeah, seems like maybe they will also show up at your house
           | unannounced and uninvited!
        
           | throwaway98797 wrote:
           | sounds like someone in love
        
       | jmathai wrote:
       | The 1k true fans approach is the most suitable one for most
       | people looking to build a business or income stream. It lets you
       | hyper focus on a niche that may not be well served by more
       | general purpose solutions.
       | 
       | But don't let the 1k number fool you. Getting even 1 true fan is
       | incredibly difficult. But the idea is that if you can get 1, you
       | can find your 2nd, then 4th, 8th, 16th, 32nd, 64th, 128th, 256th,
       | 512th and finally your 1k.
       | 
       | It's a tractable number of steps. Hard, but something you can
       | wrap your brain around and small enough to start focusing.
       | 
       | A personal example is that I've a few hundred passionate users of
       | my photo management software [1]. It's open source so they aren't
       | paying for it. I've tried a few ideas without much success to
       | provide a fiscally beneficial aspect of it - without much luck
       | yet. But it remains one of the best opportunities for me to
       | create a small community of people willing to pay for something I
       | create - which is my goal.
       | 
       | [1] https://getelodie.com
       | 
       | [1 also] https://github.com/jmathai/elodie
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | Also the first fan could be yourself, if you kid yourself
         | thinking you love it then you will suffer endless questions on
         | why it isn't taking off.
        
           | blueboo wrote:
           | In some sense, it has to be yourself. If you're not fully
           | bought-in to the value to the extent that you genuinely enjoy
           | and benefit from using it, you're forced to hypothesise about
           | that first true fan, even if she sits across from you.
           | 
           | More likely you'll get lost in discussion of personas and
           | market segments and user journeys and end up condescending to
           | your audience.
           | 
           | In short, you've got feel the need for the thing to exist--
           | for yourself.
        
             | jmathai wrote:
             | I think the 1k true fans approach means going deep instead
             | of wide. And in order to do so you need to really
             | understand what would make people fans of your work.
             | 
             | A mistake many people make is that they mistake low intent
             | interest as a proxy for opportunity. You can't always ask
             | people what they want. You have to build a thing that
             | intersects with their (often subconscious) needs. This is
             | where scratching an itch you have a deep understanding of
             | is helpful.
        
         | rafram wrote:
         | Nitpick: On Elodie's homepage, "No Propietary Database" should
         | be "No Proprietary Database".
        
         | boredemployee wrote:
         | Yep. To get one real fan, other than your mom and your
         | girlfriend is super hard. I worked as a professional music
         | producer and dj for 10 years in a good niche, paid my bills and
         | raised my kid for that long, and while many other djs and
         | producers played my music productions/compositions and threated
         | me as one of the best in my country, my career never took off.
         | Today I do it as a hobby in my free time and no one really
         | seemed to care that I stop doing it lol so maybe I never had a
         | single REAL fan.
        
       | metadat wrote:
       | Previous discussions:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26270182 (Feb 2021; 120
       | points, 66 comments)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21369257 (Oct 2019; 71
       | points, 24 comments)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17007347 (May 2018; 69
       | points, 8 comments)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10625906 (Nov 2015; 47
       | points, 9 comments)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1338957 (May 2010; 35
       | points, 10 comments)
        
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