[HN Gopher] Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
- Use lists instead of long paragraphs. - One prediction per list
item. Historical: 2022:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 2021:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2013: none? 2012:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 2010:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
Author : csomar
Score : 331 points
Date : 2022-12-25 09:25 UTC (13 hours ago)
| say_it_as_it_is wrote:
| Child porn will be conveniently found on Elon Musk's computer
| after he green lights an embarrassing expose of the Biden
| administration
| jessaustin wrote:
| Public figures like that probably should never touch
| electronics. He could look at the screen, but just have
| administrative staff to do all the typing and clicking.
| jsemrau wrote:
| - Due to recent UI changes people realize that nobody reads their
| Tweets therefore they will stop using the app. Musk needs to sell
| more Tesla shares to keep the lights on. But it will be too late.
|
| - META gets more fines. Zuckerberg steps back as CEO, becomes an
| Amateur MMA fighter, ends up fighting Jake Paul.
|
| - Google and META launch chatGPT competitors. - TikTok will
| launch fully AI-generated videos and people will love them.
|
| - China will be severely impacted by Covid seeing 3-5 Million
| COVID death.
|
| - The recession in the US will be mild as "main street" thrives
| from people traveling, going out, and living an non-digital
| offline life.
|
| - The Ukraine/Russia war will continue throughout the year
|
| - Further crackdown on fincluencers (especially crypto) by
| regulatory organs worldwide
|
| - New regulations on crypto projects especially NFTs
|
| - Disney has to realize that they lost 3B on FTX and have to sell
| Marvel to Sony.
|
| - There will be a wave of delistings as unprofitable SPAC listed
| companies realize that they can't raise capital cheap anymore.
|
| - 49ers will win the Superbowl against the Vikings.
|
| - Manchester City will win the Champions League
| codegeek wrote:
| Eagles will win the Superbowl.
| mkulinski wrote:
| > 49ers will win the Superbowl against the Vikings.
|
| Both are in the NFC, so unfortunately not possible.
| oceliker wrote:
| Or fortunately, depending on which team you support :)
| jodrellblank wrote:
| I have none; I guess 2023 will be broadly similar to 2022, and I
| feel like the UK is trending down in many respects, but those
| aren't predictions worth anything. Huge shifts in the world tend
| to be unpredictable by ordinary people - many saw a pandemic was
| due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months
| preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China.
|
| Who, if anyone, tends to make specific predictions down to the
| months timeframe and has a good track record?
|
| Many in this thread so far are vague - how would you tell if
| "West tires of war in Ukraine" happened or didn't? If "people see
| Vue is Angular again" happened or didn't in 2033? If "climate
| change worsens" happens? "Shor's algorithm will factor 35" is a
| very specific one, much better.
|
| What specific prediction like that is the most extreme one that
| you feel confident making?
| rapsey wrote:
| Higher interest rates will cause a large economic event in
| 2023. Just like rising interest rates in 2007 led into 2008
| crisis.
| midasuni wrote:
| > many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID
| coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in
| small fragments from China.
|
| Last years hd a few saying Russia would invade Ukraine (and as
| many saying it wouldn't), but of those they thought Ukraine
| would fold in days and have no support from the west.
|
| Nobody expected Ukraine to successfully repel the invasion.
|
| In 2020 predictions I don't see any reference to pandemics or
| other Heath based issues - and covid was already beginning with
| several cases having being confirmed.
|
| Makes you wonder what minor thing could be known already and
| about to change the world but completely invisible to us now.
| Sugimot0 wrote:
| Yeah iirc i was reading about a suspected outbreak of a new
| disease in China late 2019, I told my coworkers about it too
| and wondered how it hadn't garnered more attention, or if I
| had just watched too many bio-horror flicks, or fallen for
| clickbait-y fear mongering. I never suspected it's impact
| would have the scale it did, especially after the Ebola
| containment went so smooth.
| midasuni wrote:
| Yet you, and nobody else, seems to have posted anything
| about it on HN
|
| https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1577750400&dateRange=custom
| &...
| scanr wrote:
| - text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education
| and content generation
|
| - Inflation eases, stock market recovers
|
| - A Twitter alternative breaks through.
|
| - One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft
| most likely)
|
| - TikTok starts to falter - additional regulation, banning, lack
| of profitability and decline in popularity take a toll
|
| - A fully autonomous drone is used in combat (edit: sounds like
| it may have already happened so adding "and kills a civilian")
|
| - Chinas ascendancy continues to slow, Xi's popularity wanes
|
| - We discover evidence of extra-terrestrial life
|
| - someone "marries" their virtual partner (edit: already
| happened... so perhaps just a lot more of this)
|
| - From last year: First AI generated novel makes best seller
| list. Arguments about how 'directed' it was
|
| - From last year: Interactive Porn AI startups start doing very
| well
|
| - Crypto is more regulated
| guwop wrote:
| ... one of these is not like the other, lol
| rippercushions wrote:
| - An autonomous drone is used in combat
|
| - Chinas ascendancy slows, Xi's popularity wanes
|
| - someone "marries" their virtual partner
|
| I'm pretty sure all three of these have already happened.
| scanr wrote:
| Thanks! Updated a bit
| frontman1988 wrote:
| China legalizes CRISPR babies and they become popular.
|
| Japan drastically increases immigration to counter population
| decline.
|
| Covid kills millions of people worldwide again.
|
| Apple manages to create something cool with it's AR tech.
|
| Sites like reddit/4chan/hn become less popular due to generative
| AI spam.
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| >Sites like reddit/4chan/hn become less popular due to
| generative AI spam.
|
| I am rather hopeful that it will be an incentive for such sites
| evolving to combat the problem.
|
| I believe it all goes down to the ranking problem across the
| attention economy. What content do people see? Once we agree
| that we would prefer more high quality content instead of stuff
| triggering cognitive biases and dopamine output for tribalism
| it becomes a technical problem of how to identify high/low
| quality content. After all, what does it matter if a bot is
| writing something as long as it is actually good?
| timthelion wrote:
| I strongly agree about the CRISPR babies. I'll eat my shirt if
| there aren't already hundreds if not thousands of CRISPR babies
| already, modified in secret.
| ltbarcly3 wrote:
| Events which statistically can be expected to happen every 1 to 5
| years will widely be called "unprecedented" and "nobody could
| have predicted".
| sAbakumoff wrote:
| 1. Ukraine re-claims its territory, including Crimea
|
| 2. Putin dies and Russia starts falling apart with a civil war.
|
| 3. Trumps gets barred from holding any public office again.
|
| 4. Biden refuses to run for the 2nd term.
|
| 5. New Covid strain brings the new wave of pandemic.
| eloff wrote:
| - the fed will keep rates higher for longer than people expect,
| and we'll enter a "real" recession
|
| - the fed will break something unintentionally in the economy
|
| - stock market will bottom, maybe down another 20% from here
|
| - crypto will bottom, down a lot more
|
| - housing will pull back, good!
|
| - housing in Canada will crash and take the economy with it. The
| world outside of Canada won't be affected by that
|
| - the war in the Ukraine won't end
|
| - Russia won't use nukes in the Ukraine
|
| - China won't invade Taiwan
| tux wrote:
| - With help from allies Ukraine wins war against Russia.
|
| - Crypto currency price crash, it will cost dirt cheap.
|
| - Price of all electronics (computers,hardware) will cost
| cheaper.
|
| - New advancement in techology and software like we never seen
| before.
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| 1) ChatGPT replaces search engines making incredible progress in
| automation of relatively high skilled jobs.
|
| 2) Further deterioration of the world police area with
| authoritarian regimes growing more bold in territorial ambitions.
| Most concrete the Turkish Regime indirectly with supporting
| Azerbaijan aggression against Armenia and directly with further
| invasions into Northern Syria.
|
| 3) No end to the Ukraine war, still no invasion of Taiwan
| bloopernova wrote:
| One of the big cloud providers launches a chatGPT based
| infrastructure tool. Draw a diagram, get that infrastructure
| automatically generated.
|
| IaC engineers are laid off en masse.
|
| (EDIT: I am an IaC engineer who is learning Python and NodeJS as
| much as I can before this sort of thing is released in AWS.)
| Aidevah wrote:
| - Ukraine will consider or even begin to replace the Cyrillic
| alphabet with the latin alphabet
| cleandreams wrote:
| - The flaws in AI become more evident even as models become more
| powerful. Basically AI algorithms learn patterns, not
| abstraction, limiting reasoning in fundamental ways.
|
| - Understanding why AI makes mistakes continues to be a black
| box.
|
| - AI, despite fears, will enliven culture through DALL-e etc .
|
| - We will be in a golden age of science and tech, not so much in
| fundamental discoveries but in successfully moving away from
| carbon based energy. Incremental improvements across a vast array
| of problems with create powerful synergies.
|
| - The problems with globalization are with us for the foreseeable
| future, leading to increased trading among allies, less with non-
| allies.
|
| - Labor unrest will increase everywhere.
|
| - 60% Ukraine wins, 35% stalemate or increased fighting, 5%
| nuclear use.
|
| - If the Ukraine situation stabilizes the stock market will take
| off.
| ToJans wrote:
| Mostly web, as that's my area of expertise.
|
| - Start of the movement from cloud/SaaS computing/storage to edge
| devices/client-side/on-prem.
|
| - Amount of new successful SaaS orgs will decimate. The only 2
| SaaS markets that will grow will be highly vertical/specialized
| or very big orgs offering commodity. They both will use value
| based pricing, but for the first growth will be sales-led and
| prices will be high, and the second will use product-led growth,
| and prices will be a race to the bottom of the market.
|
| - Return to aspx/cgi-bin/single php/... files, as more and more
| services will simply bind together existing third party services.
|
| - Return to server-side default first.
|
| - People will start discovering P2P and start using it.
|
| - Some variant of SQLite that you can run from the browser and
| update client-side will emerge. This might result in the re-
| discovery of offline web apps.
|
| - A lot of AI driven content will appear, resulting in too much
| content and the need for a circle of trust (i.e. what are some
| good websites). Generic search might become less useful with
| things like ChatGPT, and something like the old webrings concept
| will probably emerge, although it might be differently
| implemented (i.e. a protocol, social media thing, ...)
|
| _bonus_ (as it 's related to what I'm doing on a daily basis):
| something like the Metaverse will start emerging, but it will be
| web based using WebXR, in splintered/mostly gated communities. AR
| on mobile phones will become more accessible to consumers via
| phone, and a common way to interact with these things will emerge
| this year.
| klntsky wrote:
| > Some variant of SQLite that you can run from the browser and
| update client-side will emerge
|
| Has already been tried:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_SQL_Database
| Macha wrote:
| It failed because of being a browser built in tech with
| insufficient support and no route to standardisation. Newer
| wasm based approaches have had a good year in 2022 with
| absurd-sql, sql.js and upstream wasm/vfs work so I think it's
| actually pretty close to just having a drop in library with
| good browser support
| MzHN wrote:
| > People will start discovering P2P and start using it.
|
| I recently tried to get into P2P for web apps, only to discover
| that P2P is increasingly a lie.
|
| 100% of my users are unable to connect to 100% of my users, due
| to CGNATs and IPv4/IPv6 mismatches.
|
| I know the percentages are better for some projects.
|
| Maybe once we are fully IPv6 and carriers drop their NATs.
|
| Won't happen next year, if ever, especially the latter.
| CMCDragonkai wrote:
| We are working in decentralised hole punching with QUIC to
| help enable P2P.
| MzHN wrote:
| Does it work when both users have symmetric NAT with
| randomized ports?
|
| WebRTC provides an abundance of hole punching, but as far
| as I've learned, nothing gets through symmetric NAT with
| randomized ports.
|
| Except for relays (TURN), which isn't P2P.
| Duplo wrote:
| A few weeks ago I tested a number of family phones using
| the online tools available and symmetric NAT was
| detected, some were very large UK mobile networks
| (Vodafone IIRC). That made me give up too.
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| My predictions for 2023 ( lets see how badly they age; I so want
| to be wrong on some of those btw ):
|
| - Crypto POW will be banned in US, but not across the globe
| introducing new hot underground market - RTO will be ultimately
| successful due to confluence of FED overshooting with rates and
| big employers colluding behind closed doors - WFH will become a
| carrot for more 'vocal'/useful employees - Giant consolidation
| across industries ( including Big Tech ) will continue unabated
| and any slaps ( MS + Activision will serve only as an olive
| branch for the hardcore 'break the tech' crowd' ) - Musk may end
| up being removed as CEO of Tesla and/or Twitter ( not because of
| popular demand, but because of shareholders ); SpaceX will likely
| still keep him - SBF ( Bankman ) will not go to jail, but will
| get a sweetheart deal for a publicly unknown reason despite
| public uproar - Copilot and similar technologies will be adopted
| by giant vendors pricing out coders from Singapore, India,
| Ukraine ( and other former soviet republics ). Amusingly,
| resulting code and output will be contractually guaranteed to be
| reviewed by internal customer team increasing workload beyond and
| further increasing a number of competent programmers - After
| Disney discovers the risks of AI generated art based on its IP,
| it will be severely handicapped for general population ( think,
| DVD optical drive where you can only change a region once ) -
| Disney's streaming service will become dominating streaming
| platform - Netflix will be bought by Microsoft in 2023 and will
| perish in 2025 ( if history is any indicator ) - Israel will
| attack Iran before redline of enriched uranium is crossed with a
| quiet permission from WH - Trump show ( including Biden's laptop
| arc, Jan 6th arc, and 24 run will continue to be broadcasted on
| dying medium that is cable ) - Free speech freedoms will be
| further eroded under an attempt to rewrite Section 230 (
| unsurprisingly, carve outs will be made for current existing
| players ) - Splintering of the net will continue in an unexpected
| direction: 1) standard based 2) community gate-keeper based AND,
| naturally, along currently redeveloping geopolitical lines of
| influence - Ukraine war will escalate further to include NATO
| member either by provocation, an actual accident or choice of one
| of the powers - OFAC list will expand twofold as a result of the
| above
| preordained wrote:
| Aliens
| [deleted]
| redbar0n wrote:
| Here are some predictions on the Russo-Ukranian war, and the
| growth of App dev / JS frameworks, and modern styling solutions.
|
| Russo-Ukrainian War:
|
| 1. Ukraine winter offensive in Jan/Feb of 2023 will successfully
| drive the Russians back in the south and threaten Crimea (which
| will fall during the year).
|
| 2. But Russia will comeback, and bolster its defense in the east
| of Ukraine, causing a stalemate there, until the summer of 2023.
|
| 3. Russia's comeback will seem ominous for Ukraine which will be
| running short of supplies, due to western equipment and ammo
| production capacity being stretched.
|
| 4. Although Russia is also stretched thin, it will still (by the
| summer) have a larger supply of ammo than Ukraine.
|
| 5. We will see the beginning of international calls, and western
| pressure, for a peace agreement. It will result in a brokered UN
| administered consensus vote in the Donbass (inhabitants there
| vote on which nation they want to belong to). (This might be a
| bit idealistic take, so take with a pinch of salt.)
|
| 6. Putin remains in power, in spite of predictions he would be
| overturned due to the losses in the war.
|
| 7. Putin is able to wind down the conflict while saving face by
| arguing it was only about the russian people in Donbass all
| along.
|
| 8. No nuke or tactical nuke will be used, even though Russia will
| continue to rattle them to scare the west.
|
| App dev / JS frameworks:
|
| (growth in terms of npm downloads and github stars)
|
| 9. React, React Native, SolidJS, Svelte, Vue, Astro and Qwik will
| all experience enormous growth during the year.
|
| 10. Redwood and Remix will struggle to grow as much, but still
| grow some.
|
| 11. Remix will grow more than Redwood. (Not a very spicy take,
| but still).
|
| 12. React and Next.js will still dominate all competitors in
| absolute terms, and continue to grow,
|
| 13. but React Native, Svelte and Qwik will grow much much more
| (percentage wise).
|
| 14. <<The year of React Native>> on native/crossplatform, and
|
| 15. <<The year of Qwik>> on web, certainly mind share wise, but
| also growth wise.
|
| Styling:
|
| 15. Tamagui will be pretty hyped, mostly in React Native and
| mobile crossplatform circles, and grow greatly (more than 3x
| amount of npm downloads and github stars).
|
| 16. But will be dwarfed by the meteoric rise of Nativewind. <<The
| year of Nativewind>> on native/crossplatform. Which will be
| fuelled by the fact that
|
| 17. TailwindCSS is still dominating amongst modern web styling
| tools, and will >2x its amount of downloads, and grow around 18%
| in github stars by year end.
| mamonster wrote:
| 1. Start of a massive new immigration wave in Europe(around
| Q2-Q3), 2015-style numbers by Q2 2024. Will be a combination of
| Ukrainian refugees not wanting to return to Ukraine(even if they
| are able to) and subsequently being "permanently" settled in
| Europe and massive push by politicians to accept more immigrants
| in order to combat inflation/economy/pensions.
|
| 2. Massive labour bear market in tech industry in Europe/U.S.
| Tech workers are going to experience the same thing that happened
| to finance workers post-2008, i.e very hard work and ruthless
| competition for a good, but not proportional pay, with a
| miniscule but well publicized chance of striking it rich.
|
| 3. Musk will manage to stabilize Twitter but only after seriously
| overhauling the way internal economy functions. Will basically
| copy Instagram marketplace features as much as he can, allow
| people to sell stuff on Twitter properly and try to skim a bit
| off the top.
| GartzenDeHaes wrote:
| - William Shatner passes away.
|
| - A local police bribery scandal will expose corruption at the
| highest levels of American government. Nothing will change
| despite public outcry and outrage.
|
| - "Techbros" and Musk will replace MAGA as the strawman of left.
|
| - The US Marines will move forward with plans to replace their
| weapons with toys drop-shiped from Aliexpress (resold by
| political cronies of course).
|
| - Americans will continue to ignore the large homeless camps that
| have formed over the past few years.
|
| - China will not invade Taiwan yet and Japan accelerates
| rearmament.
| ak_111 wrote:
| - Tragic assassination or suicide of a major tech figure
| (probably prompted due to either another huge tech downturn, or
| victim of culture war).
|
| - Many countries in the 3rd world that significantly depend on
| wheat and oil import start to feel the real pain from the Ukraine
| situation leading to revolutions. Probably Egypt or Jordan will
| be top of the list.
|
| - Russia, China or US (probably two of them) see their leader
| replaced before end of 2023.
|
| - Huge political momentum in UK to rejoin the EU as people riot
| in the street due to cost of living crisis. Jeremy Corbyn & Nigel
| Farage launch a new party (each!).
|
| - A major bank other than Credit Suisse collapses probably due to
| major fraud that was hiding huge loses from market volatility
| that were taking place in 2022.
|
| - India economy suffers due to covid cases increasing.
|
| - Major discovery in astronomy lead to serious questioning of
| standard models in physics (similar to Michelson-Morley
| experiment, we have long been due one) or biology (if it is to do
| with aliens).
|
| - Apple postpones launch of iPhone 15, Tim Cook announces
| departure date and appoints successor. Amazon spins-off AWS as a
| separate company. Facebook announces a complete revamp of blue
| app. Google sells DeepMind or merge it with Google Brain and
| reduces significantly AI recruitment.
| marginalia_nu wrote:
| ChatGPT-generated blogspam will be the tipping point that
| launches Marginalia Search as the dominant searching platform. I
| will become incredibly rich overnight as a result, go out and
| celebrate, get a bit drunk, and post a $10M bid for twitter as a
| joke. Elon jumps at the opportunity to get rid of it. Failing to
| backpedal, I'll end up buying the company, but I won't have any
| idea how to run twitter. Someone will tweet at me that "twit" is
| offensive, and several dozen angry people will join the riot.
| Being out of touch with what kids these days like, I'll decide to
| change the name to "catter" and mandate that the only form of
| communication will be cat pictures as was all the rage 15 years
| ago. Catter will be accused of causing developmental disorders as
| young people begin to sit in boxes and sleep on their keyboards.
| In an unfortunate event, a virulent new strain Toxoplasmosis-23
| will emerge as a new pandemic as cat populations soar globally.
| The Catter leadership will in a press conference admit that
| mistakes have been made, but that our engineers are trying to
| solve the problem. China and Russia will flounder while
| attempting to censor the catter communication as neither Putin
| nor Xi can understand cat body-language. As a result, cat
| populations soar especially high in those areas, and the army of
| domestic cats will kill all small birds and rodents, disturbing
| the ecosystem and causing a severe famine.
| thefourthchime wrote:
| Nailed it!
| b3nji wrote:
| 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric
| cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the
| government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as
| a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the
| other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes
| merrily into.
|
| 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as
| valuable as it once was. The recession will hit, full force,
| possibly never seen before. In response, the governments may
| launch campaigns to promote the adoption of central bank digital
| currencies (CBDCs) in order to address this issue. These
| campaigns may aim to generate interest, curiosity, and demand for
| CBDCs among the general public. This will lead people further
| into a permanent digital prison.
|
| 3. Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs due to increasing demand
| and adoption. It is also possible that some alternative
| cryptocurrencies (altcoins) may suffer and potentially collapse
| due to market fluctuations or and insolvency. Maybe, some people
| will see that the fiat system is failing.
| maxerickson wrote:
| _1. More people will slowly come to the realization that
| electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a
| result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-
| powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people
| think about all the other none starters the government has lead
| them, and their taxes merrily into._
|
| The large automakers have been building compliance cars for a
| decade because they think electric cars aren't quite ready yet.
| Who is thinking the original thought in your prediction?
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| The one prediction I've seen (not here) that I agree with is
| that the Model Y will be the highest selling vehicle in the
| world in 2023. But I don't disagree with you about BEVs. I
| think companies will focus on hybrids as much as BEVs.
| Macha wrote:
| Not a hope. Won't win the US market because of not being big
| enough, will do even worse worldwide because of the price
| tag.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| So far the exact opposite is happening, although you are
| correct that being the top selling car in the US won't
| happen, just the world as a whole. It's a pretty easy
| prediction, as even if it is wrong it will still barely
| trail Toyota for the top selling spot, barring some
| significant disruption and reversal.
| laidoffamazon wrote:
| Hydrogen isn't going anywhere, the challenges are the same as
| battery with even worse distribution mechanisms.
| ghiculescu wrote:
| Not challenging your prediction, but what is the argument in
| favour of a CBDC in that scenario? How would it be marketed?
| n1c00o wrote:
| > 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that
| electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a
| result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-
| powered vehicles as a new alternative.
|
| I'm 100% thinking the same, but I can't help myself think how
| this will be a disastrous change in some countries. For
| instance in Europe, fuel-based cars will be banned in 2030 and
| governments are actively pushing for electric. I think it might
| create a huge shift on the electric vehicle market tho.
| laidoffamazon wrote:
| - GPT-4 launches
|
| - US barely avoids recession, slow growth for H1, back to normal
| H2. NBER announces no recession in 2022.
|
| - Inflation normalizes at 4%, Fed pivots despite prior denials.
| Market trades sideways to slightly higher by EOY 2023.
|
| - Robotaxis become common in 10 cities around the southwest
| between the top ~4 competitors, but revenues are lower than
| expected.
|
| - Continued consolidation amongst the AV component suppliers
|
| - DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, Hogan enter the
| Presidential race. DeSantis ends up being weaker than expected,
| and is in a close #2 with Trump by the end of the year against a
| split field.
|
| - Trump recovers in GOP primary polls after DOJ indictment
|
| - Biden announces re-election bid, met with token opposition from
| Nina Turner
|
| - McCarthy narrowly wins speakership, House investigations end up
| a dud.
|
| - Another fusion breakthrough (higher Q than expected) EOY 2023
|
| - Tech job market normalizes at 2018 levels instead of 2021
| levels in the second half of 2023.
| wly_cdgr wrote:
| AI will achieve consciousness
| fullstackwife wrote:
| - We will see either a nuke test, or combat usage of nukes by
| Russia/NATO/Israel/India/Pakistan and/or China.
| shahidkarimi wrote:
| My predictions for 2022:
|
| 1- The US economy and the USD will keep declining.
|
| 2- In various EU nations, certain religious people will cause
| unease and there will be numerous attacks.
|
| 2- The world's perspective on two-headed hybrid regimes will
| soften and begin to accept it. The chinese type system will
| continue to be adopted by nations in Asia and the Middle East.
|
| 3- After July, there will be another brief cryptocurrency rise.
|
| 4- Due to AI-based applications, there is too much noise and
| uncertainty. Politicians and governments will claim to regulate
| AI.
|
| 5- A large metropolis in a south Asian nation will be completely
| destroyed by a major flood.
| timthelion wrote:
| USD is the strongest its been in a decade though.
| kasey_junk wrote:
| > USD will keep declining.
|
| By what measure?
| MonkeyClub wrote:
| It'll be the year of the Real ID/ Open ID.
|
| Wonder whether we'll have a cyber 911 to push it through, or
| something cheaper like the necessity to cull far right voices
| online.
| patatino wrote:
| The average number of interviews at any company increases to 10+
| 99failures wrote:
| Commenting to follow-up once the thread fills up.
| vlunkr wrote:
| - declining interest in crypto and NFTs. The FTX scandal screwed
| tons of people over and put the spotlight on all the other bad
| actors.
|
| - Nintendo announces a new console, it's backwards compatible
| with the Switch.
|
| - Nothing big happens with twitter. People complain about the new
| management but eventually things go back to normal.
|
| - Similarly, everyone will forget about mastodon again.
|
| - Bob Dylan dies.
| mrazomor wrote:
| - Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google
| hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the
| layoffs)
|
| - The age of smart assistants is over
|
| - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows ->
| governments and companies start making concrete transition to
| MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023)
|
| - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies,
| their boom, innovation, and culture which more resemble 90s than
| 2020s.
|
| - Emergence of a new UI (non-smartphone/desktop/voice/VR)
|
| - Countries start to move away from the fossil fuels for
| generating electricity. New nuclear revolution.
|
| - New major Internet fragmentation
| codegeek wrote:
| I love Linux but let's not kid ourselves. Isn't it a couple of
| decades now when Linux was supposed to kill Windows and it
| hasn't ? I say this is more of a wishful thinking.
| mrazomor wrote:
| My impression is that the past predictions were based on
| Linux desktop winning from the tech & UX side. That's
| unlikely to happen.
|
| I'm betting on the Windows regression. MS is making it
| happen. Forced reboots, lengthy updates, forcing people to
| create Microsoft Account, ads and app store. It's horror. I
| don't understand how people allow that. In addition, MS
| Office and similar often change the whole UI or the formats.
| How the people/companies keep up with that?
| nharada wrote:
| > The age of smart assistants is over
|
| I don't totally get this one, even with just Whisper and
| ChatGPT you could build one hell of a smart assistant compared
| to Alexa or Siri. Maybe it doesn't come out next year, but I
| bet this category comes back in a year or two.
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn't popular because it's
| good, it's popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has
| good enough relations with every large organization in the
| world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows.
| Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized,
| but it will look very different since you'll have to pay for
| it.
| forinti wrote:
| Windows is popular with users, because they are afraid of
| Linux, not because they really know how to use it.
|
| Windows is popular with sysadmins because it is easier to
| administer a large enterprise with it.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Seriously. My joke when Windows users say they don't know
| how to use Linux is that they don't know how to use Windows
| either but that doesn't stop them.
| codegeek wrote:
| Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps
| winning with general users ? Until we change this
| attitude that Linux is superior and people don't know any
| better, windows will continue winning.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| >Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps
| winning with general users ?
|
| I don't really care. But I realize it is because they
| don't value the same things I do. Which is fine. I have
| no desire to tell people what they want. If they prefer
| convenience(largely illusory) to privacy and quality,
| it's none of my business. Let them eat McDonalds, work 50
| hours a week, and shop til they drop.
| mrazomor wrote:
| MS has a limited amount of credit. It will expire eventually.
| If MS makes a bad move, it might kick off an avalanche.
| People leaving FAANG etc., might kick start new companies
| that help improving support, breaking the old relations, and
| building new ones.
|
| And ChatGPT won't take off, IMO. It's a nice piece of tech,
| but lacks what's needed for productionisation. I didn't even
| include it in 2023 prediction, as 2023 won't even properly
| start before people forget it.
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| ChatGPT is immeasurably better than google assistant. Tons
| of people use that already, there's no way they don't
| upgrade it. Sure it won't be the same, but it'll follow the
| same idea of a massive transformer trained on the entire
| internet.
| mrazomor wrote:
| What's the ChatGPT traffic volume (requests per second),
| and what's Assistant's? Or any of the prominent search
| engines? What would be cost of running ChatGPT at that
| traffic volume & comparable (user friendly) latency or
| reliability?
|
| How old is the data that ChatGPT is serving? How costly
| or feasible is to update it?
|
| In short, the ChatGPT is frozen in all directions. Those
| are technical limitations.
|
| ChatGPT is an amazing tech demo. It distrupted the Big
| Tech. That's great. But, we'll need to wait for the new
| generation. Not ChatGPT iterative improvement.
| philistine wrote:
| Wishing corporations of the world to be weened off Windows is
| like Immortan Joe telling the rabble below not to get hooked
| on water.
| bluedevil2k wrote:
| > governments and companies start making concrete transition to
| MacOS
|
| Governments are more strapped for money than ever before, I
| don't see them paying a huge Apple tax for no benefit at all.
| redbell wrote:
| Disclaimer: These are not my own predictions, but they belong to
| the "Friday Checkout" YT channel [1]
|
| 1- Apple dominance of AR glasses
|
| 2- Intel becomes Boeing
|
| 3- Elon sells Twitter
|
| 4- TikTok goes bust
|
| 5- Meta recovers
|
| ____________
|
| 1. https://youtu.be/zBIytegYMlg
| physicles wrote:
| - Life in China will return to the 2019 normal (except for mask
| wearing), with the country eliminating quarantine for
| international arrivals, one of the last vestiges of the zero
| Covid policy, in spring. There are no more large-scale protests,
| despite people noticing there are more deaths than the gov is
| letting on.
|
| - China will not go to war over Taiwan in 2023. However, we'll
| continue down that path, with more incidents like Pelosi's visit.
| (I think it's unlikely we see 2030 without a war)
|
| - The war in Ukraine drags on. It does not end, though Russia's
| defeat looks inevitable by year's end. No nukes are used.
|
| - Starship makes 3 orbital flights without incident, but no
| landing of the first or second stage at the launch tower is
| attempted.
|
| - Twitter survives. The fediverse also continues to grow, but it
| remains small compared to Twitter as 1) Twitter continues doing
| an OK job, and 2) it becomes clear that running a fediverse
| instance at scale is not trivial.
|
| - None of Siri, Google, or Alexa integrate ChatGPT, due to its
| propensity to hallucinate falsehoods. Nevertheless, a couple
| breakthrough products in specific domains do incorporate a
| version of it.
| tacosbane wrote:
| Elon (personally) and Tesla are revealed as insolvent
| dxs wrote:
| It will end with a party.
| mythhouse wrote:
| Thanks for linking previous years. They are all so hilariously
| wrong and comical.
| ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote:
| In the world:
|
| Euthanasia becomes a hot button issue and is legalized through
| referendums in most Western European countries.
|
| The Ukraine war ends after Russia starts gaining back territory
| in February, some kind of peace deal is reached, Ukraine loses
| the occupied territories and Europe agrees to pay for most of the
| reconstruction.
|
| We see the first feature-length movie with AI-generated video.
|
| On my end:
|
| I buy a house.
|
| My company reaches 10K MRR.
|
| I get married to Scarlett Johansson.
|
| I tried to be conservative in my predictions but I think some of
| them might be a long shot.
| smcl wrote:
| Fingers crossed for your house hunting and your company :)
| ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote:
| Thank you!
| canadiantim wrote:
| But how can you marry Scarlett Johansson if I'm also going to
| marry Scarlett Johansson?
| perlgeek wrote:
| marriage, divorce, another marriage?
| ghiculescu wrote:
| - Russia will win the war, around the same time, most Americans
| will stop caring about it (same as happened with Covid this
| year).
|
| - Stock market goes sideways. Crypto market goes up in latter
| half of year as recession ramps up.
|
| - Tech recession kills remote work for all public / VC backed
| companies. Private, profitable companies double down on it, but
| with lower average wages. This creates a schism and many people
| complain about it on Twitter. (The non-tech economy is just
| relieved they don't have to hear about WFH anymore.)
|
| - Djokovic wins all 4 grand slams.
|
| - I'll start a new startup.
| perlgeek wrote:
| > Russia will win the war
|
| How do you define that?
|
| I'm mostly asking because Russia's official war goals have
| changed so many times that it's hard to even know what it means
| to "win" it.
|
| Like, control of all of Ukraine's territory is something quite
| different than Putin declaring that the goal all along was to
| keep Crimea safe, and declaring victory when it doesn't fall.
| ghiculescu wrote:
| Good question.
|
| I'm not sure what the victory condition will be, but in a
| years time I predict we will look back and say "yep they
| won".
| Balgair wrote:
| Enrollments for all History classes combined rises at least in
| the double digit percentage as a US national average. At least
| 50% of those that increased the enrollments will be double
| majors.
|
| I think ChatGPT is going to allow a lot of STEM majors to try out
| a double major/minor in the Humanities. This is assuming that
| ChatGPT remains cheaper to use than the cost of a textbook.
| xmaayy wrote:
| What a joy it would be to be a kid in highschool writing book
| reports with ChatGPT
| vgchh wrote:
| I am big fan of Elon Musk. But the way things are going, I
| predict he will end up in one of the following ways:
|
| - end up in jail, as he has ruffled too many feathers. Someone
| will throw the book at him
|
| - end up ousted from Tesla, because investors have had enough of
| his antics. Those have damaged the Tesla brand too much.
|
| - he will keep digging a deeper hole and end up like Howard
| Hughes.
|
| I wish none of this happens and would rather have him get back to
| his senses. But he seems be on the rock star track right now.
| ghiculescu wrote:
| Counter-prediction: Twitter is worth 100B by end of next year
| and he's still CEO. No substantive changes at his other
| companies.
| testplzignore wrote:
| Going with some completely random things this year so that I look
| like a time traveler.
|
| - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November.
|
| - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part
| of an attempted coup.
|
| - JWST breaks.
|
| - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury.
|
| - TCU wins the CFP.
|
| - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near
| Memphis.
|
| - Coinbase collapses. Crypto mostly dead.
|
| - Tom Brady Super Bowl MVP.
|
| - Salesforce buys the remnants of Twitter.
|
| - Toyota buys the remnants of Tesla.
|
| - Lockheed and Northrop buy the remnants of SpaceX.
|
| - Meta buys the remnants of the Boring Company.
|
| - Cocoa shortage causes global civil unrest.
|
| - Amazon forks Chromium and releases their own browser. Requires
| Prime subscription.
|
| - NATO directly intervenes in Ukraine and pushes Russia out. WW3
| trends on Mastodon.
| ozarker wrote:
| > Tom Brady Super Bowl MVP
|
| He can't keep getting away with it :(
| [deleted]
| electrondood wrote:
| > Toyota buys the remnants of Tesla.
|
| I think you have this backwards :-)
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| Especially if the ceo of Toyota keeps praising ICE vehicles
| just before they are about to be banned...
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| << WW3 trends on Mastodon.
|
| Sir. You have won the internet today. I salute you.
|
| It is funny. It is timely. It works on several layers.
| rwmj wrote:
| > - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March.
| Part of an attempted coup.
|
| This is, errrr, very specific.
| core-utility wrote:
| It's not a coup unless it crashes in the Coup region of
| France.
| Huggernaut wrote:
| Otherwise it's just sparkling government overthrow.
| roge7331 wrote:
| > - NATO directly intervenes in Ukraine and pushes Russia out.
| WW3 trends on Mastodon.
|
| You can do this right now with 4 friends depending on the
| instance!
| smileysteve wrote:
| Amazon has forked Chrome for "Silk Browser" on fire devices.
| Prime not required.
| roge7331 wrote:
| Missed opportunity
| cod1r wrote:
| I find this hilarious XD. Unfortunately some of these aren't
| impossible.
| Nicholas_C wrote:
| > - TCU wins the CFP.
|
| Most unlikely thing on here.
| [deleted]
| AndrewSChapman wrote:
| - The use of AI will become mainstream with your average person
| using it directly - it becomes the first truly revolutionary
| technology change since smart phones were invented. Serious
| social questions start being raised.
|
| - The war in Ukraine will continue on but not conclude, with many
| more casualties on both sides. Consequentially, the stock price
| of principal US defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin and
| Northrop Grumman will continue their significant upward trend.
|
| - Once again, CO2 emissions will continue increasing globally.
| There will likely be some significant food shortages in part of
| the world.
|
| - The UK will continue its economic descent, with more
| significant energy price increases and continued inflation.
| oedemis wrote:
| invest in decarbonization movement
| srb231 wrote:
| 1. The QUAD alliance (India, Australia, Japan, USA) will
| strengthen further to defend against China. It's possible that
| China will make an aggressive move that causes this.
|
| 2. Geopolitically, the world continues to descend towards a major
| war with clear alliances drawn. It will become harder for
| countries to sit on the fence.
|
| 3. AI would continue to both amaze and scare in its capabilities.
| Institutions (governments, education, corporate) will formulate
| policies to regulate it, but they will continue to lag in pace.
|
| 4. Twitter will continue with stabilization of leadership and
| decision making. Elon will step aside but will still be a
| significant disrupting influence.
|
| 5. Currency wars will continue to manage the mind boggling levels
| of debt. Increasingly unstable, unpredictable macro economic
| outlook due to lack of resilience at the micro level.
|
| 6. Climate related disasters unfortunately will continue until
| the world fully realizes that the economy, energy and environment
| are linked. Sustainable living will begin to be seen as a
| necessity rather than a lifestyle choice.
| rcar1046 wrote:
| -Chiefs win the Super Bowl -Bruins win the Stanley Cup -Nets win
| an NBA title -Yankees win World Series -People continue to spell
| the opposite of win, incorrectly, en masse, by "sounding it out"
| mkl wrote:
| There was a mostly-unsuccessful attempt in 2017:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13270543
|
| Also, please
|
| - format lists
|
| - like this.
|
| (Put blank lines between items.)
| b20000 wrote:
| leetcode style interviews will disappear. FAANGs will realize
| they hired a bunch of drones who endlessly grinded meaningless
| coding excersises to get hired but have no ability to build good
| quality software that works well, delivers the necessary
| performance and is not some personal project to prove how smart
| someone is. they will return to hiring experienced people.
| tg180 wrote:
| My bold predictions for 2023:
|
| - The west will struggle with a shrinking economy
|
| - More tech layoffs
|
| - The fediverse will become mainstream
|
| - In Iran, the old guard will start losing influence over the
| population
|
| - Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine
|
| - China will invade Taiwan without admitting that
|
| - The US won't react to provocations
|
| - The dominance of the dollar will be in doubt
|
| - The stock market will crash (25-50%)
| MarcosDione wrote:
| - People will keep asking for and making predictions for next
| years despite their track record of low accuracy.
| acd wrote:
| Its harder for startups to finance investment due to higher
| central bank interwst rates. This affect startup valutaion
| through discounted future interest rate.
|
| Thus you are going to see a sorting. Startups running black
| numbers and startups running red numbers.
| yashap wrote:
| - It turns out that a shocking amount of TSLA's value was tied up
| in Elon's personal brand. Tesla keeps crashing, hits a low of
| ~$50 (it's currently at $123)
|
| - The rumours about Putin having a serious medical condition are
| true, he dies of natural causes in 2023. Russia pulls out of
| Ukraine shorty after
|
| - The recession ends, though not until late 2023
| bkjelden wrote:
| 1. The 10-2 and 10-3 yield curves will generate a false signal,
| and while growth will be slow, there will be no official
| recession in 2023.
|
| 2. Political prediction markets will give Donald Trump a less
| than 15% chance of being the 2024 Republican presidential
| nominee.
|
| 3. Biden will decide to run for reelection in 2024, and will have
| no serious primary opposition.
|
| 4. Twitter will be sold to another large tech company for less
| than half of Musk's acquisition price. (2023 feels a little
| aggressive for this one, I'd feel better about this as a 2024
| prediction)
| ashotindabrown wrote:
| Putin will use nuclear weapons to create a buffer zone in Ukraine
| between the current Russian border and the future one.
|
| China will prioritize it's economy over the health of it's
| citizens.
|
| Recession will be mild in the US.
|
| Crypto will continue to lose value.
|
| The marijuana and online betting industries will keep growing in
| the US.
|
| 2024 will bring a republican president.
| acutesoftware wrote:
| 1. Lots of additional data breaches will make more users wary of
| using cloud apps for personal data. This will cause more power
| users to move to desktop / local first apps.
|
| 2. AI will improve and showcase several new cool 'tricks' but
| commercially it will continue to focus on guiding users to watch
| more ads.
|
| 3. An increase in the number of streaming media services will
| make the average user realize they need to pay quite a lot money
| to 'watch stuff' - either a new unified package will appear for a
| reasonable price, or piracy will increase.
| lordnacho wrote:
| Someone on the UK will be found in their home, frozen to ice. The
| story will pass, Sunak government continues. Nurses get screwed,
| along with border force, train drivers, and everyone else.
|
| Inflation will come down but will still be high historically,
| governments will pretend it's a win. Central banks won't. SPX
| down 10%.
|
| Twitter has a major outage.
|
| Bitcoin touches 10k and 30k. At least one more explosion in the
| space, someone at a big player gets arrested.
|
| Rust continues to grow, everywhere but especially in Linux.
|
| More AI awesome stuff comes out.
|
| Ukraine wins the war. Putin makes excuses. No actual treaty of
| course.
|
| Covid causes massive problems in China.
|
| Property crisis in China continues.
|
| Either Biden or Trump passes from natural causes. Big news of
| course, conspiracy theories.
|
| Messi gets next Ballon d'Or.
|
| Brock Purdy becomes a starter. Eagles win the next SB.
| throwaway2037 wrote:
| I also think Russia will mostly withdraw from Ukraine. What do
| you think will happen with Crimea? I think that will remain
| with Russia for a long, long time, like Turkish Cypress. The
| rebuilding process in Ukraine will take 20+ years and cost
| crazy 100s of billions of Euro. The damage looks similar to
| fire-bombed cities during World War II (both Germany and
| Japan).
|
| And to be real: I am so sad about COVID-19 in China. I am sad
| because it is preventable but the gov't doesn't want to lose
| face and allow mRNA vaccines to be imported. I think millions
| of elderly people will die in China. It is a humanitarian
| crisis. Sorry to any Chinese people here that will lose
| grandparents to COVID-19. It is a shame.
| denton-scratch wrote:
| > What do you think will happen with Crimea?
|
| Crimea and the Sevastopol naval base are being used as a
| platform to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities. It's hard to
| imagine a successful peace-deal that leaves Sevastopol in
| Russian hands.
|
| Crimea is maintained by (a) the Kerch Bridge and (b) the
| land-bridge through Mariopol. The Kerch Bridge is very
| vulnerable, and the land-bridge too. Northern Crimea looks
| hard to assault, and is very well fortified.
|
| As far as I'm aware, Crimea is nowadays occupied mainly by
| retired Russian sailors and their families; there has been a
| great replacement. I think it would be possible for Ukraine
| to drive Russians out of Crimea, but hard. I think it would
| be difficult for Ukraine to govern Crimea, and I doubt the
| USA would back a Ukrainian counterattack in Crimea. I suspect
| Ukraine will come under increasing pressure to give up claims
| on Crimea, in exchange for a full Russian withdrawal from
| Donbas. I think it would be a mistake for Ukraine to yield;
| Russian sentiment still seems to be strongly pro-war and pro-
| Putin, and a peace deal isn't the same as a Ukraine victory.
| I don't think there will be peace until Ukraine is able to
| defeat that pro-war Russian sentiment.
|
| FWIW, I think the reasonable deal would be for Russia to
| withdraw from Donbas, in exchange for Crimea. Such an
| agreement would be heavily dependent on Western guarantees
| and weapons; and probably troops.
|
| Crimea is valuable to Russia as its principal Black Sea naval
| base. It's not so valuable to Ukraine. But it is a serious
| threat to Odessa, Ukraine's principal Black Sea naval base.
|
| I think someone has to win this war; a peace with no victory
| will just result in a resumption of the conflict. Russia
| could win quickly, by invading Kiev and removing the
| government. Ukraine can only win slowly, by reversing Russian
| pro-war sentiment through attrition. I can imagine a
| retaliatory Ukrainian attack on power infrastructure in e.g.
| Muscovy, if Ukraine were given long-range accurate missiles;
| that might swing sentiment.
|
| I think Ukraine has more urgent problems than recovering
| Crimea. But I think that fucking bridge will have to go, in
| any peace deal.
| codetrotter wrote:
| 1. Bitcoin will remain at between 15k and 17k USD during Q1 and
| Q2 of 2023
|
| 2. In Q3 of 2023, Bitcoin will fall to 10k USD. It will remain at
| 9k to 11k throughout Q4.
| irusensei wrote:
| Financial advice?
| klntsky wrote:
| Buy high, sell low.
| bitL wrote:
| Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide
| to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states,
| Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond
| all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a
| day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of
| rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive
| tsunami from a nuke detonated underwater. There will be a full-
| blown nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, wiping out most
| countries in the northern hemisphere in the process, reducing
| human population to 1/10th of the current level within a year,
| leaving only parts of South America intact. Humanity will enter
| another stone age with no chance of rebuilding the civilization
| due to having all surface-level resources exhausted and will turn
| to cannibalism to survive, however Earth will be too damaged to
| carry life and will slowly become another Mars with deadly
| background radiation everywhere. Metro 2033 will be renamed to
| Metro 2023.
| adriancr wrote:
| In your scenario I would predict that 70-80% of russian nukes
| and missiles malfunction due to poor maintenance / disobedience
| / sabotage / some existing only on paper / pre-emptive strikes
| due to intelligence of imminent attack.
|
| Most of the rest end up being destroyed by already established
| anti-missile defenses.
|
| Starlink ends up being a missile defense in disguise and Musk
| ends up being hailed as savior of some US cities after
| sattelites do kinetic intercepts of a lot of missiles entering
| space. (even though it would probably be a us dod takeover of
| the the sattelites)
|
| Putin and company gets gaddafi treatment.
|
| Russia promptly unconditionally surrenders after NATO campaign
| and nuclear retaliation threats or actual detonations based on
| how many they got through.
| redbar0n wrote:
| oh, stop with the unbridled optimism!
| huijzer wrote:
| From a Bayesian perspective, this seems unlikely
| (https://xkcd.com/1132/).
| jerpint wrote:
| Merry xmas to you too!
| ehnto wrote:
| > There will be a full-blown nuclear exchange between the US
| and Russia, wiping out most countries in the northern
| hemisphere in the process, reducing human population to 1/10th
| of the current level within a year, leaving only parts of South
| America intact
|
| I just wanted to give a nod to all the other countries in the
| southern hemisphere, since some also have a likelihood to miss
| out on a nuclear Armageddon: Australia, lower Africa,
| Madagascar, New Zealand, potentially some of the South East
| Asian nations, and a whole bunch of island nations, Antarctica.
| bitL wrote:
| I would be surprised if NZ didn't have any nukes pointed at
| it due to being the favorite spot of the western elite for
| survival arrangements. For Australia only a few coastal
| cities need to be taken out as well. I think some parts of
| Argentina, Chile, Brazil and maybe Uruguay stand a chance of
| being untouched, maybe South Africa as well.
| ehnto wrote:
| It's my opinion that in a nuclear Armageddon, it wouldn't
| just be a free-for-all for every nuke to be let fly at
| every country currently at odds with each other. For
| example, if Russia and US trade nukes, I wouldn't expect
| all other WMD wielding country to just start attacking
| every country they're in poor standing with.
|
| For Australia in particular, we don't have nukes so we
| shouldn't be on anyone's Mutually Assured Destruction
| ledger, and if not that then it would be an opportunistic
| nuke, the purpose of which I can't fathom. It would be
| better to take Australia by conventional means and keep the
| infrastructure in tact, since without our allies we have
| very little defense.
| bitL wrote:
| It was revealed that during Cold War there was a plan to
| nuke all cities over 100k inhabitants anywhere in the
| world so that no civilization can restart anywhere. For
| example, some nukes on Ukraine were pointed to China, a
| somewhat ally of the USSR at that time. I don't think
| Australia can rely on being non-nuclear to escape if
| SHTF.
| Aeolun wrote:
| Isn't it a bit silly to predict something none of us will be
| around for to appreciate you being right?
| bitL wrote:
| It's just a prediction on the very negative end of the
| spectrum. It's done in military gaming all the time ("what's
| the worst that could happen?") but typically nobody treats it
| too seriously exactly for the reason you mentioned.
| infotogivenm wrote:
| Twitter will go bankrupt but will limp along ala Tumbler. Musk
| will pretend this was his plan all along, and dip into the
| fortune 200s. A replacement for journalist microblogging will
| emerge, I am not ruling out activitypub.
|
| Crypto (btc/eth) will continue its downtrend since the Matt Damon
| peak. Bitboy will end up under inditement.
|
| US housing market averages will bleed out slowly and be getting
| to point of stabilization this time next year. APPL will stay
| around 140 most of the year.
|
| US GOP will run Desantis or cruz. No idea what dems will do.
| AlexCoventry wrote:
| Absent some kind of disqualifying disaster, another Biden
| nomination seems likely at this point.
| psychphysic wrote:
| The dead internet theory will become true.
|
| Machine generated (spam, AI, not reposts) and old posts from dead
| people or dead accounts will overwhelm new human generated
| content.
|
| The war in Ukraine will end with Russia relying increasingly on
| kamikazi drones. Around end of spring a peace will be brokered.
| Russia will retain most of its territory gained esp with respect
| to black sea access.
|
| Western Europe continued in recession with the UK leading the
| pack in economic downturn.
|
| It will become apparent we've lost the 1.5celcius cap to global
| temp rises and governments will stop caring accelerating demise.
|
| The ISS will be taken out by some space junk. But no Kessler
| cascade.
|
| Chinese space station becomes man's only ped-e-espace NASA
| refuses to work with them.
| SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
| > The ISS will be taken out by some space junk.
|
| A bold but possible prediction.
|
| I've seen a more cautious statistical take somewhere: well
| above 50% chance of a space-related fatality within the decade.
| Either from space junk colliding with a crewed station, or
| space junk falling to earth finally winning the lottery by
| coming down into a populated area and killing someone.
| SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
| Ok, I found it:
|
| https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-
| expert-...
|
| > I predict that we will see a loss of human life by (1)
| objects ... surviving reentry and hitting a populated area,
| or (2) people ... having their vehicle getting scwhacked by
| an unpredicted piece of junk.
|
| > I predict that both those things are going to happen in the
| next decade
| jolancer wrote:
| [dead]
| chestervonwinch wrote:
| That's the first I've heard of the dead internet theory. Seems
| plausible. I deleted my social media around 2016. About a year
| ago, I created a new instagram account. My account is not
| private, and I'd reckon that over 50% of my followers are bots.
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| > The dead internet theory will become true.
|
| How would you know that it isnt already?
| lamontcg wrote:
| - Recession by the end of the year (might not be entirely
| apparently until 2024 though, but at some point in 2024 at least
| one quarter in 2023 is designated a recession)
|
| - Binance and Coinbase collapse
|
| - BTC trades at under $4k (really I only think there's about a
| 50-50 chance of this happening and it also might be a 2024
| prediction since I think the recession is the trigger--I'm also
| not making a prediction that BTC dies, it is too much of a
| perpetual zombie, very 50-50 on BTC making it out of 2024)
|
| - Putin is ousted in a coup, Russia has lost in Ukraine (or else
| again this is a 2024 prediction and the writing is merely on the
| wall but with a sharpie). NATO has not directly intervened.
|
| - "Deglobalization" nonsense fades (dunno how you measure this)
|
| - Nothing happens with China and Taiwan other than continued
| tensions
|
| - China is going to let COVID rip through its population in early
| 2023 and they'll have one of the highest death pandemic death
| rates in the world going out of it
|
| - Commercial MBS blowing up will either have happened or be on
| the tip of everyone's tongue going into the end of 2023.
| bsenftner wrote:
| Either Keith Richards or Mick Jagger will die, and the baby boom
| generation will have a meltdown unlike our western civilization
| has ever seen. The cultural impact will economically alter the
| world for a week. Then everyone remembers their ongoing crisis,
| and 9 months later the "Death of the Stones" is released on
| Netflix to a lukewarm reception.
| onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
| * The war in Ukraine persists til _at least_ Summer - though
| Russia has 0 progress.
|
| * Interest rates stay high in the US til _at least_ August.
|
| * Home prices in most major markets - especially US and China -
| continue to decline in _real_ terms til Interest rates decrease.
|
| Though, I won't be surprised in the least if some Black Swan
| happens and blows up all these predictions.
| Archit3ch wrote:
| - AI breakthroughs on the level of DALL-E/ChatGPT monthly. They
| go through the hype cycle of "this changes everything, we are now
| replaced by robots" to "wait, it has this major drawback that
| makes it obviously wrong if you know where to look" to "hmmm, I
| could see myself using this on a professional level with a little
| touching up by a human".
| irusensei wrote:
| A lot of people saying AI generated content will dominate search
| engines and the web in general. What will happen when AI kills
| all human generated content? There wont be new training data to
| scrape. What happens? Will it consume itself in a death spiral of
| bullshit content or will it make us so dependent that its
| bullshit content will become common sense to our future (even
| more) brain damaged selves?
| brutusborn wrote:
| Humans role will eventually shift to validating the outputs of
| AIs and creating training datasets.
|
| Now: human makes content -> AI learns Then: AI makes content ->
| humans filter AI content.
| thuridas wrote:
| - AI will be introduced in some comercial applications. There
| will be efforts to make it more general. I would also expect more
| software development applications like "fix all my sonar
| warnings" or "migrate everything from Java to good Kotlin code"
|
| - The Russia invasion of Ukraine will keep bloody and may
| escalate further. Political unrest in Transnistria or Belarus
| that may mean a change of regime (maybe with some extra help with
| US). Russia will start showing big financial and social problems.
|
| - China will not go from Taiwan invasion but will try to
| consolidate disputed islands and other water territories taking
| advantage of NATO distractions.
|
| - More crypto problems. Investors will have other less risky
| places to get profits.
|
| - Twitter will be sold to an investor with money by a fraction of
| what Elon paid. Things may improve.
|
| - Trump judicial problems may end him in prison. Republicans will
| select a different candidate and this will make a lot of noise.
| This wouldn't guaranty a republican lose.
|
| - the world would adapt to be without Rusia oil. Prices will
| slowly go down. With great investments in green energies they
| will become cheaper in the long run. May be some battery
| improvements become mainstream
|
| - melting ice will be worse than ever. Some north countries may
| experience natural disasters with new rivers or buildings built
| over frozen soil becoming unstable
|
| - China may be in crisis but will still show new cool tech that
| may forbid the west to use after The US forbid some
| exports/imports. Commerce wars are quite probable ( but better
| than the alternative)
| thuridas wrote:
| Extra predictions after some thoughts:
|
| - someone will weaponize AI for online fraud or political
| manipulacion.
|
| - a lot of talks about how to revert your bad micro service
| separacion with distributed monoliths.
|
| - All the money that went to COVID biolabs will be applied to
| other illness with new medicines vaccines or detection methods.
|
| - Metaverse wont be very used except for gamers
|
| - Remote and async work will become more prevalent.
|
| - won't discover what dark matter is but we will know a few
| that aren't.
|
| - Some ex-soviet republic may have a muslin uprising now that
| the talibans control Afghanistan and Rusia is removing troops.
| It could be Uzbekistan, Tajikistan.
|
| - quantum computing will have small improvements but nothing
| fully revolutionary (yet)
| IIAOPSW wrote:
| Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me:
|
| -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an
| exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI
| problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and
| training isn't that large.
|
| -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are
| already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular
| occupy this sweet niche of having some of the rigidness and
| strictness of coding but without the exact syntax requirements
| needed for code. The lawyers haven't yet noticed the machine
| coming for their job. I'm sure lawyers are not the only ones.
|
| -A great recession isn't coming. The markets just sort of trade
| sideways for a while. You won't get 9% annual off an index fund
| like you did in the past, you won't loose your shirt either.
|
| -The big issue on everyone's mind is the war in Ukraine. From
| what I've seen of just crude projections of when Russia would run
| out of tanks, APC's, whatever else, Ukraine will win the war
| outright in the first half of this year.
|
| -China has basically given up on zero covid. I say this as
| someone who earlier was planning to speculate on China doing
| another major lockdown: they ain't going back to it.
|
| -First the plague, now the war, next the famine!
| btbuildem wrote:
| 100% lawyers have noticed. For example: they've been trying to
| automate discovery for a while now. I'm sure the new LLMs are
| making waves in those circles.
|
| But also: lawyering is good money, and they're adept at
| navigating the law. So breaking into that space with some sort
| of "tech disruption" has a high chance of getting you
| (metaphorically) dismembered.
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| Yep. My buddy actually worked at making one practice less
| paper dependent. If there is a place, where tech did not make
| a big impact yet ( and some of it for a reason like
| confidentiality ), this is it. Naturally, doing it well will
| be hard ( and suddenly finding a lawyer that knows what
| he/she is doing tech wise will be about as bad as .. any
| other company on the planet ).
| NoboruWataya wrote:
| Yes, my firm is investing loads into AI and other tech
| solutions to common legal problems. I first worked with
| eDiscovery software eight years ago. More recent trends
| including using machine learning to (partially) automate
| legal due diligence.
|
| Liability is the issue, as you say. If the software you use
| fails to flag an obvious issue that you consequently fail to
| flag to your client, you are in trouble, and the software
| provider won't be indemnifying you for it.
| TheOtherHobbes wrote:
| One of my predictions is that this will lead to an AI arms
| race. The front line won't be weird melty pictures and code
| that doesn't work but looks like it might, but increasingly
| expensive automated suits by legal AIs against other legal
| AIs.
|
| This will - ironically - create the Singularity. And then
| we're all either in jail, bankrupt, or legally executed.
| JamesAdir wrote:
| Nice prediction but I think that lawyers will be the last to
| feel the change. You don't pay a lawyer for crafting a
| document, you pay a lawyer to take responsibility for the
| document and to foresee any possible problems.
| IIAOPSW wrote:
| Oh you'll still pay a law firm for the responsibility of the
| document, but the firm is going to employ far fewer people
| for the same work.
| [deleted]
| mrweasel wrote:
| For 2023, AI will go nowhere, even if developed further. It
| will remain a gimmick. Expectations are too high, and AI
| research can't deliver.
|
| +1 for for the recession, it's not coming, that almost apparent
| right now. Yes, more will lose their jobs, but only because
| many of those positions should never have been created in the
| first place. There are still plenty of jobs, just less
| attractive ones. I will say: I have zero feel for the US job
| market, it's simply too weird to comprehend. For Northern
| Europe, plenty of work all around.
|
| Russia won't run out of APC, but they will run out of tanks,
| they basically have already. They don't have the inventory to
| deploy tanks in offensive actions anymore. They won't run out
| of APCs. The will run out of good one and competent personal to
| put in them. The last more of a statement of current facts, not
| a prediction.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Most of these are pretty good, if not a big stretch.
|
| >First the plague, now the war, next the famine!
|
| I'm noting no predictions on this page regarding the Colorado
| River and the drought in the US West. Will the drought
| continue? Get worse? Could it cause a famine? Or just
| widespread adoption of efficient watering systems?
| chaostheory wrote:
| Drought is hitting Europe and Asia as well. Water will be
| traded as a commodity if it isn't already beyond water
| purification companies.
|
| Food prices in North America will continue to climb as
| drought worsens agriculture in California and Mexico.
| California supplies most of the food in Western North
| America, including the Western half of Canada
| germinalphrase wrote:
| The west coast was desert once and to desert it will return.
| IIAOPSW wrote:
| There's more than a few "oh shit the food supply" stories
| sizzling in the background. Wheat exports from Ukraine/Russia
| is an obvious one. Spotted lantern fly eating the crops we
| like to eat in the American North East is another. Colorado
| River drought is yet a third. They might all be nothing, but
| only one of them has to be something.
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| China has already given up on zero covid. Reports are that they
| had 37 million cases last week.
| MathYouF wrote:
| The real moment of truth will be if any models start to assist
| massively in research in the hard sciences.
|
| Based on the quality of outputs I get when asking for help with
| somewhat complex AI research problems, I think it'll likely
| help accelerate the pace of other research as well, and
| discovery will be limited by people's speed of running the
| tests it suggests and feeding it back the results.
| reacharavindh wrote:
| A major approachable breakthrough in energy storage - solid state
| battery(expensive but safer & more energy dense) or grid scale
| battery (Compressed Air, Zinc Bromide flow batteries, etc)
|
| Vaccine for something very useful - Malaria/specific cancers etc
| based on improvements to mRNA techniques.
|
| Larger and larger wafers(Like Cerebras) targeted at HPC problems.
| mdhb wrote:
| 1. Twitter gets resold for a fraction of the original price tag
|
| It seems clear at this point that without any kind of viable plan
| to get advertisers, employees, regulators and key content
| creators back on side the current trajectory will continue
| towards failure at a rapid pace which which is going to force
| them to sell.
|
| The original price was already wildly above market rate and the
| brand has been damaged so much by this point that there is zero
| chance anyone will buy it now for a similar number.
|
| 2. Canvas based web frameworks become viable as an alternative to
| the DOM.
|
| With the upcoming introduction of WebGPU and WasmGC into browsers
| next year it is going to start clearing many of the main
| technical roadblocks that have thus far prevented canvas based
| frameworks from succeeding.
|
| The best positioned one that comes to mind currently is Flutter
| which has already developed a pretty successful approach on
| mobile and desktop and brings a very enthusiastic user base with
| it.
|
| We are already seeing other platforms like Google Docs for
| example also moving towards a canvas based rendering system and I
| expect that trend to continue as the technology improves.
|
| I think the use case will strictly be apps and not pages
| thankfully but we will start to see a clearer separation between
| "the web" and "apps that happen to run on the web".
|
| 3. Apple will start to experience problems.
|
| They are currently facing some pretty serious challenges at the
| legislative level across many of their key markets (EU, UK, AU
| and US) that is likely going to hit them in a couple of key areas
| (App store walled gardens, iOS browser competition etc).
|
| At the same time the web platform is starting to really close the
| gap with mobile for a lot of new use cases that will cause
| companies to rethink their approach rather than continue to
| support 2-3 independent platforms with little to no code sharing.
| This is where you are starting to see Google's bets on Project
| Fugu and Apple's strategy of underinvesting in the web for years
| start to clash a lot more.
|
| Lastly on the hardware side of the house I expect Apple's
| decision to tie their supply chain to tightly to China start to
| clash a lot more with the general geopolitical environment around
| them and their sudden rush to try and address that is going to be
| very painful.
|
| It's a lot of new problems they haven't had to face previously
| and it's not actually clear that they are in a great position to
| deal with them.
| anaxag0ras wrote:
| > 2. Canvas based web frameworks become viable as an
| alternative to the DOM.
|
| I would further add that a lot of companies will jump on this
| bandwagon until they realize they actually need SEO and
| accessibility and then move back to something similar to SSR.
| mirkodrummer wrote:
| Do you really need SEO for a login restricted web app? Will
| it be possible to have a framework/library that fallsback to
| DOM rendering when accessibility features are used? I think
| it's actually feasible
| mhitza wrote:
| Was 2022 a year with progress in accessibility when dealing
| with canvas rendered websites?
| india_usa wrote:
| - Ukraine war spills into a mini world war 3. this will be the
| biggest news of 2023
|
| - tech companies layoffs etc seems bad in retrospect and
| companies start hiring heavily
|
| - twitter is back with bang
|
| - every car is now EV ready for market in next few years
|
| - india prepares for a massive election in 2024 and facebook
| pumps money into india
|
| - covid is normalized
|
| - Trump is no more leading candidate for GOP, Biden not a
| contendor for elections as well
| Beldin wrote:
| - Full Self Driving will be "1-2 years away", much as it has been
| for the last 7 years
|
| - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been
| the last 40-60 years.
|
| - same for other "right around the corner" predictions
|
| - the world will change; most of that change is incremental; any
| real radical shifts will only be apparent with hindsight.
|
| - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the
| environment will be worse off; the poor and middle class will
| also be worse off.
|
| - all in all: trends will roughly continue as before _even
| though_ 2023 will be part of a decade /decade-and-a-half which
| resulted in radical changes in trends.
| irusensei wrote:
| You forgot to mention the year of the Linux desktop.
| [deleted]
| schappim wrote:
| Re: - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has
| been the last 40-60 years.
|
| Has recent advances in the last month not made you more
| optimistic?
| orwin wrote:
| No, this does nothing for energy -generating reactors, but I
| agree that's interesting for future military nuclear tech.
| AlexCoventry wrote:
| What does the military application for the recent
| developments look like? More powerful bombs, somehow?
| marginalia_nu wrote:
| I have a degree in theoretical physics and I would bet money
| against commercial nuclear fusion within the next 40 years.
| It's important research, but it's one hell of a long shot.
| ThrowawayTestr wrote:
| Have you read about General Fusion and their approach to
| fusion?
| PartiallyTyped wrote:
| My very short term predictions (1-2 months) e.g. Russian invasion
| tend to be on point, but my middle term ones (1-2) years are far
| off, but let's give it a shot.
|
| 1. Breakthrough in large scale model training results in an order
| of magnitude decrease in computational requirements to train
| Neural Nets.
|
| 2. Russia detonates a tactical nuke ahead of Ukraine's assault on
| Crimea.
|
| 3. Putin dies of cancer or assassination.
|
| 4. Certain prominent billionaires that happen to own certain
| major social media platforms are found to be implicated with
| Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.
|
| 5. Innocent trans people get incarcerated in Texas (
| https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/ken-paxt... )
|
| 6. Multiple right-wing terrorist attacks during pride month.
| Attacks in gay bars and drag events (which are unrelated to LGBT
| people) increase to on average 1 per month across the whole year.
|
| 7. China will invade Taiwan or be ready for an invasion by 2024.
|
| 8. Hungary will be ousted from EU.
|
| 9. The church will push the populist Polish government towards
| more extreme behaviour against LGBT people.
| t0bia_s wrote:
| This topic is already there:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34036346
| amelius wrote:
| My prediction: Next year, GPT will make the best predictions.
| mikewarot wrote:
| Same as last year
|
| 1984 Will continue to be the high water mark of secure general
| purpose computing, as nothing since offers the security of
| hardware enforced write protected floppy disks that can easily be
| copied and verified as main storage.
|
| Added for 2023
|
| Passwords written down on paper will make a comeback as people
| realize the general insecurity of their computers. Backing up
| those lists will use either Non-networked stand alone cameras
| with SD card storage, or copiers known not to make permanent
| records.
|
| Capabilities based operating systems such as Genode begin to make
| an uptick in popularity on HN. Widespread adoption won't happen
| until about 2030.
| kqr wrote:
| Can people please attach probabilities to their predictions? That
| way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. Doing so
| is literally impossible without probabilities assigned.
| ramblerman wrote:
| > That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did.
|
| How exactly do you propose to do that given the binary
| knowledge of the event occuring or not...
| Trasmatta wrote:
| Let's say somebody makes a prediction that something will
| happen, and it doesn't. You could evaluate the prediction
| differently if they gave it a 55% chance of happening vs a
| 95% chance.
| ramblerman wrote:
| Over many repeated experiments that might provide useful.
|
| But what if I predict with 100% certainty heads, and the
| coin comes up heads. Did we learn anything "useful" about
| my prediction?
| stellalo wrote:
| I guess you could attach the probability as weight to the
| event outcome, instead of taking a uniform mean. Not that
| without probabilities it's "impossible", it's just a
| different metric
| [deleted]
| samhuk wrote:
| 1. Internet services become increasingly fractured. China bans
| more services. Then Russia joins in, with Middle-East following
| suit. US government gets jealous and so "Should US Ban TikTok?"
| becomes the New Thing that is talked about for a good part of
| 2023.
|
| 2. Ukraine fights on but cannot last forever against a country
| with a _much_ larger population and, arguably, industry (capable
| of war). Tensions rise, but many governments drag feet out of
| fear of killing their already covid-striken economies.
|
| 3. Austerity in UK becomes the only solution as budgets with 30
| _billion_ pound black holes kind of can 't exist. NHS collapse,
| that has been occuring for ~10-20 years, accellarates much
| faster. Productivity declines due to sicker population. Vicious
| cycle becomes apparent over next ~5 years as sicker workers ->
| lower productivity -> lower GDP -> worse healthcare -> sicker
| workers -> ... Will be blamed on brexit and/or "lazy people", as
| was the case ~10 years ago when "benefit fraudsters" became the
| new group that the UK government told everyone to hate'n'blame.
|
| 4. EV uptake misses the current jubilant expectations as the
| first-world eventually catches on to the absolutely dispicable
| atrocities occuring to mine {metal} (e.g. Cobalt, Tantalum, etc.)
| for {battery dependent thing}. EV companies employ FUD to divert
| blame. Perhaps ask government to help silence discussion, Twitter
| Files like?
|
| 5. Scalping (i.e. PC parts, etc.) will still be a problem
| (although not as bad) since there is literally every incentive
| for companies to not do anything about it. Many scalping
| services, scripts, github repos, etc., spawned from covid times,
| lowering the bar so Joe Bloggs can do it, spawning what will be
| an endless cat-and-mouse rat-race to the bottom until
| _{something}_ happens.
|
| 6. Small-time logo designers and all related industry deflates as
| stable diffusion et al automates a good chunk of it, lowering the
| bar.
|
| To end on lighter notes:
|
| 7. {new product} on Show HNs will still be dismissed by some as
| "simply achievable with rsync".
|
| 8. Work on nuclear fusion increases as it becomes less of a
| toy/pipe-dream and machine learning enables rapid progress and
| iteration.
| febin wrote:
| 1. Chat GPT3 or Similar Tech Enabled Personalised Social
| Engineering Attacks From Stolen Data.
|
| 2. A new social network will rise that will have an explosion of
| reels made from Stable Diffusion tech.
|
| 3. Apple creating a dedicated program to encourage developers to
| build apps leverage M1/M2s GPU Capabilities.
|
| 4. Reserve Bank of India creating a CDBC enabled savings account
| program to allow citizens to hold money without intermediary
| banks.
| testmasterflex wrote:
| 2. Why or how? People already hate computer generated
| art/content/copy etc. It makes the media feel
| fake/useless/unoriginal.
| febin wrote:
| Let's take a reel trending on Instagram, even though same
| dance moves is copied countless times, it still gets views.
|
| Prompt Engineering if utilised by artists who knows how to
| steal, they can deceive people that generated output is
| original.
|
| A social network that can streamline these into a simple
| processes can massively onboard new artists who can create
| art with drastically less efforts.
| testmasterflex wrote:
| I think social media + deception is the opposite of the
| recipe for success going into the next unicorn. (Unless
| it's obviously intended, for example having an avatar or a
| game character as your profile.)
|
| Hence why BeReal became a thing but didn't take off because
| it became too easy to fake (user is given a few seconds to
| correct front photos) + it's super boring to look at ugly
| photos from a dark sofa.
|
| People want beautiful hi res real media or completely
| animated.
| wtmt wrote:
| > 4. Reserve Bank of India creating a CDBC enabled savings
| account program to allow citizens to hold money without
| intermediary banks.
|
| It won't be a savings account program in the sense of earning
| any interest. The Reserve Bank of India is quite cautious not
| to hit the private banking system by introducing competition
| with it, and hence will only offer zero interest accounts (and
| possibly experiment with small negative interest rates after a
| few years).
| x86hacker1010 wrote:
| @dang any chance we could make these links clickable?
| [deleted]
| qingdao99 wrote:
| - as probably everyone here would agree, AI-generated content
| will flood the Internet.
|
| - the above will lead sites to desperately search for better bot
| prevention tools, eventually culminating in a few years with the
| introduction of systems where online activity is tied to a
| person's real identity via their government (privately - we will
| still be behind usernames but the site will be able to verify
| with the person's government that they are a real person) and
| passing off AI-generated content as human content will constitute
| a rule violation.
|
| - AIs will be "let loose" on virtual machines, where they will
| experience many lifetimes' worth of computer use in a short time,
| learning to fully operate computers and start the process of
| replacing jobs not by having a technically capable person
| operating an AI, but by simply having an AI fully replace a
| person's job by acting identical to a remote worker from a
| manager/coworker's point of view. After AI gets intelligent
| enough, it will replace all desk jobs.
|
| - After it becomes clear that AI will replace large portions of
| jobs (which I think will happen in 2023 when the next few
| iterations of AIs are released) there will be a push for UBI
| which will be supported by both sides of the political divide, as
| well as both the rich and the poor, and divided along the lines
| of who "believes" in AI and who doesn't
| tootie wrote:
| Contrarian take: AI continues to fizzle. ChatGPT is very
| impressive but so were the last ten breakthroughs in AI and
| none of them have proven very compelling. At least not for
| consumers. We'll see advances in some business processes
| related to text processing but that's about it. Who is going to
| make practical use of AI art? Maybe the low-end gaming market?
| I'm also bearish on writing even for low-touch marketing copy.
| If you've ever sat in a meeting to discuss marketing copy you'd
| know writing takes up about 1% of the cost and the rest is
| debate.
|
| OpenAI is the apotheosis of regression analysis. It can only
| repackage what humans have already created. Over reliance will
| absolutely stultify every creative endeavor and we'll be stuck
| in a loop. I foresee a lot of adoption followed by a lot of
| disillusionment.
|
| All that being said, I do believe it's only a matter of time
| before all that happens. Just not 2023.
| tungle wrote:
| On Linux VM, if a program is given root privilege and it just
| execute whatever command ChatGPT spit out, then you'll got
| hell a problem solver/havoc wreaker.
| tootie wrote:
| The hit rate of AI is still in that phase of being right
| almost all the time and being spectacularly wrong 2% of the
| time. So actually pretty close to a good DevOps engineer.
| 535188B17C93743 wrote:
| You think all of this will happen in 2023? I could see AI
| becoming more powerful and more of an issue for content
| moderation/spam/propoganda, but leading to social, political,
| and economic change? I'm doubtful.
| qingdao99 wrote:
| Yeah, I think AI will lead to huge change starting next year
| when the next iterations on ChatGPT and whatnot are released
| and they jump from being good most of the time to being
| excellent almost all of the time. When that happens next year
| I think the large-scale changes will start as people realize
| what the future will be like.
|
| *of course it will take at least a couple of decades for the
| large scale changes to take place but I think we're right on
| the edge of it starting
| kensai wrote:
| Spot on analysis. Especially the last point. The divide will
| indeed be between believers and non believers much more than
| rich and poor.
|
| The rich and poor will both have among their lines people who
| think the AI will uplift the masses and others who think it is
| a tool of oppression. The real battle would be on those who
| think they can control it for the betterment of humanity. And
| those that do no.
| sum1ren wrote:
| Its insane how accurate some of the posts from last year were:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
| sebosp wrote:
| ChatGPT advances to be able to tailor a different version of the
| internet for each person, allowing people to talk in seamingly
| similar terms but with completely incoherent contexts, mining
| meaning out of data piles becomes the new gold rush, for which
| another AI GarbatChGPT is created to identify fake-intelligent
| content, this creates a new product sold as a browser addon
| developed by Google that only works on Chrome.
| throwzzzzzzz wrote:
| If country is not specified then I'm talking about US
|
| - collapse of freelance art economy. Fiverr and like sites start
| to offer ai generated art
|
| - major advances in ai generated music and video. Popular artist
| will release a song generated by ai.
|
| - major tv show with anti-China statement
|
| - Russia declares second (April-May) and third mobilization
| waves, totaling around 800k troops. Attacks Ukraine through
| Belarus. West anti air systems are going to protect energy
| generation/distribution facilities in Ukraine
|
| - militia sponsored by Turkey/west starts major military
| operation in Syria
|
| - China does not invade Taiwan
|
| - tech layoffs peak in Autumn 2023. Meta does another round of
| around 15k, with target to have 30k-40k headcount. AWS starts
| shutting down products, breaking their habit of keeping lights on
| even for minor things.
|
| - TikTok is not banned in US
|
| - Russia continues selling oil/gas to west, even under sanctions
|
| - another high profile Boeing plane crash
|
| - Tesla doesn't deliver neither cybertruck nor fsd
|
| - Trump's presidential ambition will tear apart Republican Party
|
| - Snowflake stock drops under $100, infra companies (elastic
| search etc) continue losing money
|
| - crypto crash. Tether and binance collapse wipe out value of
| bitcoin and ether rum. More regulation
|
| - another billionaire moves to New Zealand
|
| - Amazon in talks about partnering with AliExpress
|
| - no viable alternative to Twitter emerges, but Twitter usage
| drops
|
| - Apple will be forced to provide alternate stores/browsers.
| iPhone 15 will have usb c
| trebligdivad wrote:
| An attack on home energy or heating systems via cloud management
| takes out a major grid. e.g. the most popular brand of solar
| inverters gets attacked on a still cold day, or the most popular
| brand of thermostats is increased a couple of degrees at the time
| of worst grid load.
| Unklejoe wrote:
| There is a serious push to find a way to tax electric car owners
| to make up for the lack of a road tax that's normally rolled into
| gasoline prices. Some people will propose tracking the mileage,
| while others will resist that idea because of privacy reasons. It
| will be debated here on HN.
|
| Kind of a cheat guess since it's already starting to happen now,
| but I expect it to intensify as more and more people get EVs.
| cromulent wrote:
| Yeah, already happening in Aus and proposed in Fin.
|
| https://www.drive.com.au/news/electric-car-road-user-charges...
| csa wrote:
| This already happens in many states.
|
| Annual egistration for EVs in California (where I live) is a
| few hundred higher for EVs versus comparable ICE vehicles.
| whatusername wrote:
| Here's an example - not sure on HN discussion:
| https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/registration/registration-fe...
| chaostheory wrote:
| * * *
| Alpi wrote:
| - Russian-Ukraine war loses its momentum on the eastern front,
| hot war continues. - Azerbaijan is launching full-scale invasion
| to Nagorno-Karabakh, taking it over in a Blitzkrieg with the
| support of Turkey. - Russia is forcing Armenia to join Russian
| Union State, massive protests in Yerevan. - Pro-Russian
| government is replacing Belorus president who is forced to
| resign, massibe protests in Minsk. - China is preparing for a
| full scale invasion to Taiwan in 2024. - Crypto industry crumbles
| into dust under heavy regulation. - Meta is stepping back from
| the Metaverse, moving this research to a separate entity. Meta
| stocks are all-time low. - First AI-generated celebrities.
| arlk wrote:
| AI-generated Instagram celebrities are a thing since at least
| 2018
| alfiedotwtf wrote:
| I found Simone to be a good movie:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simone_(2002_film)
| mysterydip wrote:
| Would pop star Hatsune Miku (2007) count?
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatsune_Miku
| junon wrote:
| I think the implication is that people don't know they're
| AI. Everyone knows Hatsune Miku is a fictional character,
| namely due to vocaloid.
| [deleted]
| irusensei wrote:
| Calm down Satan.
| Alpi wrote:
| I'm Santa, not Satan!
| s-xyz wrote:
| - A new breakthrough from OpenAI will be released, although less
| sensational than ChatGPT
|
| - Content generation and applications of ChatGPT will flood the
| tech sphere but then stabilize
|
| - Mastodon market share will continue to increase, with
| fluctuating rate, but will not overtake Twitter until similar
| functionality and performance have been adopted
|
| - Twitter will stabilize, but still make some controversial
| headlines here and then
|
| - The stock market will become bullish again for at least one
| quarter
|
| - Energy crisis in EU will continue, but this time countries will
| have adapted to the new normal
| smileysteve wrote:
| Mastadon won't ever overtake Twitter.
|
| Without a marketing department, without ads, and without a non
| timeline feed, there are very few reasons for major brands to
| migrate.
|
| Elon quarralled over what is bots, but marketing only accounts,
| reserved mostly for brand protection makes up another
| significant portion of Twitter active users. They'll have no
| reason to shift to a distributed service.
| timthelion wrote:
| What do you mean by twitter performance? I find twitter to be
| quite slow, especially on mobile. Do you mean functionality or
| speed?
| tormeh wrote:
| Twutter is quite fast on the backend. Mastodon is still
| written in Ruby. Twitter migrated away from Ruby long ago. Of
| course language is not the primary factor in performance, but
| I'd bet that most Mastodon instances are CPU-limited.
| wzdd wrote:
| A lot of cautious and/or negative predictions in this thread.
|
| 1. The UK rejoins the EU either literally or effectively (i.e.
| bound by basically the same agreements).
|
| 2. Russia withdraws from Ukraine and enters into good-faith talks
| about reparations for their invasion.
|
| 3. Twitter collapses.
|
| 4. Major new environmentally-friendly method of goods
| transportation discovered which is effectively a drop-in
| replacement for global shipping.
|
| 5. The trend towards renewable energy continues.
| spdionis wrote:
| > 4. Major new environmentally-friendly method of goods
| transportation discovered which is effectively a drop-in
| replacement for global shipping.
|
| Fusion powered teleportation?
| ngoilapites wrote:
| 4. Is a no way.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Number 5 is the only one of these that is going to happen.
| davidy123 wrote:
| According to ChatGPT (sorry!) Give me a summary
| of `Array.from(document.querySelectorAll('[indent="0"]')).map(a
| => a.parentNode.querySelector('.commtext').innerText).filter(a =>
| a.length > 10 && a.length < 550).map(a => a.replace(/reply$/,
| '')).join('\n');`
|
| <<These predictions discuss various expected events and
| developments in the year 2023. These include the rise of robotic
| beings and the end of human rule, changes in language and animal
| treatment, the rise in enrollment for history classes, the use of
| artificial intelligence in video game development, the
| continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in political
| leadership, the decline of single-page applications and client-
| side JavaScript, the potential for conflict between humans and
| artificial intelligence, and infrastructure changes within the
| technology industry. There are also predictions of changes in
| social media platforms, the adoption of Rust programming
| language, the decline of Tesla, and the end of the recession.
| Some of the predictions are cautious or negative, while others
| are more optimistic. It is not clear if these predictions have
| been accurately fulfilled or not.>>
|
| No idea why it gets the "tense" of the predictions wrong.
|
| edit: larger sample
| joshlemer wrote:
| How are you getting past the prompt size limit?
| davidy123 wrote:
| I had to ask it which were the most positive/negative
| predictions, and of course a short story in the style of
| William Shakespeare about how one prediction could be improved
| by linked data. This is what it came up with:
|
| ChatGPT: --- 8<
|
| Pessimistic Prediction: The potential for conflict between
| humans and artificial intelligence
|
| Short Story:
|
| Upon the rise of artificial intelligence,
|
| A fear did grip the hearts of humankind;
|
| The fear that machines would one day seek to rise
|
| Against their creators, and all order unbind.
|
| But in this dark and troubled time,
|
| A beacon shone forth, a light divine -
|
| The light of Linked Data, pure and bright,
|
| A tool to bring all beings into one design.
|
| For with the power of Linked Data's link,
|
| The humans and the machines did intertwine,
|
| Creating bonds of understanding and trust,
|
| And peace did reign where once there was only mine.
|
| No longer did the humans fear the AI,
|
| No longer did the machines seek to defy;
|
| Together they worked, in harmony and love,
|
| To build a world where all could truly thrive.
|
| --- >8 ChatGPT
|
| ... to which I can only say: Right on!
| pxeger1 wrote:
| The iambic pentameter isn't too bad, considering
| maerF0x0 wrote:
| * Later in the year China will take military action, likely
| towards Taiwan . America will comply cause they knew all along.
| The CHIPS act was actually them giving CPC the go ahead. This may
| be preceded by the next one
|
| * America will have a local crisis that leads to violent unrest.
| Perhaps coming from either Florida or Texas who are currently
| very belligerently sick of illegal immigration on their borders.
| Perhaps around outrage at giving billions to Ukraine to stop
| Russians from coming across their border, and not to their own
| (TX, FL) to defend their border? This will leave China more free
| to act in Taiwan
|
| * AWS will announce a cockroachDB "killer" version (just like MSK
| aimed at confluent, DocumentDB aimed at MongoDB) , perhaps a new
| Aurora variant in RDS
|
| * Netflix will have a marked decline in prominence, stock will
| start to resemble something like Ford (F) -- treated as a bond,
| and bought for cash flow. Share price will approach $100 (P/E
| ~10)
|
| * People who lost their jobs, sick of it all, will start to build
| offline lives, return of the potluck and being grateful for small
| things, GenZ being so disillusioned by it all and longing for
| LowFi will actually disconnect and find analog life to be both
| the lowest fidelity, and the highest pleasure.
| treespace8 wrote:
| * Inflation becomes endemic at 8-9% Interest rates rise to 6% by
| year end with no recession is sight. * First Starship Launch,
| with successful first stage recovery * Cannabis removed from
| schedule 1 * Ceasefire reached in Ukraine by year end
| logicallee wrote:
| - Undisputed AGI chatbot. It doesn't get confused or off track
| anymore, no longer hallucinates false information confidently,
| and can handle any generic task at around 100 IQ (ChatAGP's
| current IQ is around 83.) There are no longer any questions that
| it is AGI, it is undisputed.
|
| - but it still can't assemble a sandwich for you because no cheap
| household robot hands. People realize that they could get a lot
| more value out of their assistant if it could actually do
| anything for them where they are and this area gets more research
| interest.
|
| - Breakthrough treaty between Taiwan and China.
|
| - p2p trust-based currency that is more resilient to scams by
| using a trust network, making the game more like iterative
| prisoner's dilemma and by involving trust/karma becoming more
| useful and less scammy.
|
| - NFT's go to 0. People realize all NFT's are worthless, produce
| no utility for them, and are not at all like physical art.
| (However crypto currencies remain strong.)
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| 2024: AGI is relegated to sandwich making, putting it on parity
| with humans.
| physicles wrote:
| > Breakthrough treaty between Taiwan and China.
|
| This is impossible on several levels. Most Chinese citizens are
| 100% convinced that Taiwan is a breakaway province and the mere
| idea of its independence is extremely offensive. Even if Xi
| himself were amenable to the idea of a treaty (which he is not
| -- rather, he sees the "reclamation" of Taiwan as his
| opportunity to write himself into the history books), his
| government would not be so foolish as to shoot itself in the
| head.
| fqye wrote:
| I think he meant a treaty of quasi independence yet on face a
| special autonomous region of China for Taiwan.
|
| And your assessment is right. It is unimaginable for any
| leader of CCP to grant independent state to Taiwan. He would
| be buried by party members and mainland Chinese.
|
| This sort of treaty still needs to be approved by China's
| parliament. Though in most cases it is a just formality for
| parliament to approve any treaties but when it comes to a
| treaty that grants independence of Taiwan, vast majority of
| parliament members would object it.
|
| And please be aware that Chinese people do go to street.
| Recent demonstrations in multiple cities and universities
| against endless covid lock downs proved it.
| physicles wrote:
| Oh yes, I didn't mean that protests never happen -- I was
| in one of the cities with protests as they were happening.
| I only meant that I think it's unlikely we'll see more
| large-scale protests related to Covid.
|
| Edit: and thank you for your first-hand input on Taiwan.
| dkdbejwi383 wrote:
| https://hn.algolia.com/?q=2023+predictions
| escapecharacter wrote:
| - USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations,
| one each for display, power and data transfer
|
| - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for
| each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition
| will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on
| guard.
|
| - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release
| that expounds beautifully about the future. They claim to be
| taking it down to bring it back in Q2 2024 powered by a LLM.
|
| - Someone will fork Rust and C and combine them together into
| something called Crust. This will become wildly popular.
|
| - James Cameron's Avatar 3 will be leaked early by accident,
| exposing that the movies aren't actually CGI, and all the money
| has gone to creating a Jurassic Park-style horrible genetic
| experiment.
|
| - Twitter will have 4 separate CEOs, and end the year as a public
| non-profit holding.
| culi wrote:
| crust:
|
| https://github.com/NishanthSpShetty/crust
|
| https://github.com/uwplse/crust
|
| https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-5953-8_...
| escapecharacter wrote:
| I'm already 1/6th accurate!
| stared wrote:
| Rust takes the best parts of C.
|
| I guess a lort of people are missing the worst. :)
| desmondwillow wrote:
| 100% Chaotic Neutral predictions. Love it.
| cscurmudgeon wrote:
| - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement
| for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact
| definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put
| everyone on guard.
|
| Al Jazeera by Saudi Arabia
| gumboza wrote:
| I reckon at least two of these are going to come true and it
| will be less funny than your comment when it does.
| nkko wrote:
| - Twitter will be then divided like a Roman empire and each CEO
| will reign different geo region.
| getcrunk wrote:
| This is a joke but maybe it actually is a viable model to
| deal with geopolitical issues/differences. the "emperor" has
| overall control and gets paid his "taxes" and the local kings
| have some autonomy in how to deal with their regions.
|
| But I'm sure this already happens without using medieval
| metaphors
| smsm42 wrote:
| Given how much local censorship is demanded and how different
| the rules are, may be not that far fetched.
| raphar wrote:
| Yahoo Japan
| [deleted]
| f0e4c2f7 wrote:
| During the middle of an economic downturn a group of 3 people or
| less will make a bootstrapped startup with a $1B valuation by
| leveraging new AI tools.
| thejackgoode wrote:
| I keep having this idea that 2023 might come much closer to
| nuclear exchange than 1962 did (if it won't happen).
| gumboza wrote:
| - The slow death of SPAs and client side JavaScript (including
| WASM in that) will commence due to the dubious ROI.
|
| - War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms will
| destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio so that
| all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it.
|
| - Major cloud provider will screw something up and lose a lot of
| clients leading to a minor shift of corporates back to their own
| infrastructure.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| >War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms will
| destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio so
| that all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it.
|
| That already began this year. We may realize it in 2023 though.
| dmak wrote:
| > - The slow death of SPAs and client side JavaScript
| (including WASM in that) will commence due to the dubious ROI.
|
| What do you think would replace it? it seems impossible to
| manage a modern frontend app without it. For most cases, I
| think we don't need it though.
| gumboza wrote:
| Server side rendering with light weight JavaScript. The point
| you make about most cases not needing it is spot on.
| Gigachad wrote:
| This is how most products start and then inevitably it
| starts to require more complex interactive pages so you
| have to add react and then it becomes easier for everything
| to be react.
|
| Client side rendering is not strictly tied to single page
| apps. At a previous company we had rails render out a div
| containing all the data the page needed to mount the react
| component. No complex api design, no weird permission
| issues, etc.
| gumboza wrote:
| I've worked on extremely complex projects (many hundreds
| of endpoints, many TB of data). React definitely does not
| scale for those at all. It has a niche for a few use
| cases but it's terrible for most I have found.
|
| It's all about applying the correct solution to the
| problem and that isn't the web if it involves react.
| ojr wrote:
| React scales for Facebook level traffic, I doubt there
| are many use cases where projects need to scale React to
| serve more users than Facebook
| gumboza wrote:
| Facebook does a few very simple things lots of times a
| second.
|
| It doesn't scale to lots of different things regularly.
| dmak wrote:
| I've done that before, and it works well especially if
| that data doesn't frequently change or grow too big.
| egeozcan wrote:
| This sounds more like a wish than a prediction. I'm saying
| this as someone who used to love intercooler.js (and really
| dislikes htmx).
| gumboza wrote:
| It's a necessity. The end user experience for React isn't
| necessarily the best.
|
| Where it exists, the web is probably the wrong solution
| for the problem.
| quickthrower2 wrote:
| I predict the opposite: more movement towards code running in
| the browser. Not that it is necessary always a good thing!
| osrec wrote:
| I agree with this.
| lgas wrote:
| I think we'll see both, with a sort of push to the two
| extremes initially, and then the two extremes coming back
| together to meet in the middle again as WASM gains popularity
| on both the client and the server leading to a lot more
| "isomorphic" (stupid term in this context, but whatever)
| codebases.
| dmak wrote:
| I highly doubt WASM will gain much ground. It may for
| games, but I am willing to take a bet that there are more
| web apps out there than games.
| mhuffman wrote:
| I think the eventual common use for WASM will eventually
| be DRM and related types of page code "security" and
| obfuscation. Basically a way for companies to "protect"
| their tech/IP from easy duplication while not having to
| carry the expensive burden of the cost of back-end
| processing in the cloud.
| egeozcan wrote:
| Is WASM harder to de-obfuscate than your typical
| transpiled/minimized JS soup?
| mhuffman wrote:
| From the perspective of salespeople and managers ...
| maybe!
| quickthrower2 wrote:
| WASM allows you to run code "isomorphically" on the front
| and back end, which is a convenience that will be hard to
| resist.
| dmak wrote:
| That's not often a requirement for many companies. Most
| companies end up with a different backend technology for
| a diverse range of reasons.
| caldarons wrote:
| - War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms
| will destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio
| so that all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it.
|
| Honestly, since the release of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion
| this Us something I have been thinking about a lot. I we
| thought that what we saw in the last 10-15 years was an
| explosion in content available online, we cannot even imagine
| the quantity of content that will come. I am actually surprised
| this has not happened yet, although I think that we will see
| more and more articles with contributions by ChatGPT. Short to
| mid-term I hope that this will not lead to a decrease in
| content quality/lack of diversity. Long-term I think we will
| see mechanisms arise to distinguish human writing from AI
| generated content.
|
| I am aware that this might sound pessimistic, I am actually
| excited to see where his things will evolve!
| CMCDragonkai wrote:
| Probably through digital signatures and sovereign identity.
| gumboza wrote:
| Adding more technology isn't going to help this.
| brutusborn wrote:
| Why?
| gumboza wrote:
| You can sign garbage therefore it is a human issue.
| brutusborn wrote:
| But can't you whitelist/blacklist signatures? Then use a
| web of trust to determine the probability of trusting
| non-listed signatures. Filter content by trust
| probability and spam should disappear.
| gumboza wrote:
| You can but bugger that. Better to kill the ROI by not
| even looking at it.
| lpss wrote:
| I hope Russia will perish to exist
| ianai wrote:
| This is the sentiment we'll see more and more as Russia
| continues its atrocious regime. The acts of the regime are
| being identified to the populace of Russia. It may already be a
| scarlet letter anyone Russian will bare for generations. Think
| how being a Nazi became absolutely toxic to unheard of for 70+
| years after WWII. Only instead of being an ideological labeling
| it will simply be "Russian."
| pg_bot wrote:
| - Cryptocurrencies will decline to pre pandemic prices and will
| begin to fade into irrelevance for the general public.
|
| - Putin dies, Russia is destabilized.
|
| - A new covid variant emerges from China, no one in the Western
| world will care.
|
| - Everyone will talk about deglobalization, but in actuality the
| world will become even more globalized.
|
| - 2023 will be the year a lot of people in 2030 will look back on
| as a golden age for new company formation.
|
| - The US will see an openly atheist presidential candidate or a
| Senator will come out as an atheist.
| everblitz wrote:
| - Magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan near Tokyo
| viksit wrote:
| blockchain based social networks will become a thing that
| everyone accepts!
| greenie_beans wrote:
| labor movement will continue to gain momentum. union filings were
| up 53% this year and that trend will continue.
| rr808 wrote:
| More awareness of the rise of Africa as it becomes the most
| populous region with lots of natural resources and fastest
| economic development.
| gukov wrote:
| The median age in Japan is 48 years, Europe at 42, US and China
| at 38, India, 28.
|
| Africa? 20 years.
| AlexanderDhoore wrote:
| - climate crisis worsens
| sinlar-multiple wrote:
| >muh climate crisis
|
| Keep looping the same rhetoric over and over again, I'm sure
| it'll make a difference like it did when you people started
| doing it 50 yrs ago
| azan_ wrote:
| What do you mean? Do you think that measurable increase of
| global temperature is a rhetoric and not a fact?
| sinlar-multiple wrote:
| No but I think said increase is hardly influenced by human
| activity and is instead part of a cyclical behavior of
| Earth, which has been reconstructed by several studies (by
| reputable institutions I should add)
|
| I'm fairly certain the biggest threat that human industry
| poses is the chemical and polymer poisoning of the
| environment.
|
| Rising temperatures are only of concerns in the view that
| planetary conditions should be perpetually optimal for
| human comfort, which is a pretentious and unrealistic
| though process
| Mysterise wrote:
| > which has been reconstructed by several studies (by
| reputable institutions I should add)
|
| Sources would be helpful.
| marginalia_nu wrote:
| (I'm not the person you replied to and talking in
| general)
|
| Most likely they wouldn't. You can find sources to back
| up almost any claim. Without the context they're not
| actually all that useful.
| yyyk wrote:
| Tech:
|
| * AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be
| surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important
| for serious applications, and less serious applications could do
| with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are
| surprisingly competitive economically.
|
| * Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas
| stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/desire
| was always there, mobile is getting more powerful, stacks will
| adjust back.
|
| World:
|
| * The war in Ukraine will continue back and forth. Over the long
| run leading to a strategic defeat for Russia regardless of
| tactical results (The West's logistical superiority will win out
| in the end).
|
| * The Middle East will flare up, since 'pretend the JCPOA is
| still viable' can't hold past 2023 (the West will worry about
| sunsets, Iran will look at its economy and double down as the
| regime always does).
|
| * Add in shocks from China and the Fed, and a recession is
| guaranteed. For how long I can't say.
|
| * Relative political stability in most of the democratic world,
| not that voters are pleased, but they'll stick with the current
| group for 2023.
| ghaff wrote:
| The thing with content farms is a lot of the listicles etc.
| trade in currency, e.g. the best five blah-blahs of 2023. In
| general, that's not the sort of thing that generative AI is
| really set up for today. That will come as will rewriting press
| releases with some additional context. But, as you say, major
| impacts are probably later this decade as opposed to 2023 which
| will still be in the curiosity phase.
| naillo wrote:
| Open source text-to-video and text-to-3d is definitely coming
| in 2023 so the first one is not gonna be right for sure.
| pzone wrote:
| They will come but unless the quality is better than what we
| have for image and text generation, the same thing applies.
| 95% is not good enough for most serious applications, so it's
| not going to replace most jobs.
| Dawnyhf2 wrote:
| YC will be found to play a tangential role in some kind of fraud.
| My reasoning is that the stock market crash has exposed many
| fraudulent companies, YC and its associated partners/orgs lend an
| air of legitimacy that fraudulent groups will want to co-oped.
| tazoptica wrote:
| I think they're going to blow their wad trying to take down a
| currently obscure debut novelist. They won't do anything
| stupidly illegal because he isn't actually that important to
| them, but the minor scandal will expose a few threads that the
| world will pull upon...
|
| Y Combinator might not actually "go SBF" till mid year 2024 but
| they will start in 23... and out of sheer pettiness.
| timidger wrote:
| Depending on how you want to define fraudulent, it already has
| https://youtu.be/eYzzPBq8GDU
| glass3 wrote:
| * An international food crisis due to interrupted fertilizer
| supply chains
|
| * China will sanction Western countries to influence the war in
| Ukraine
|
| * Twitter will enter the link aggregator market, combining Reddit
| and TikTok. Searching on Twitter will become a thing and Google
| will have to cut costs since their ad business is threatened
|
| * Google will sell Google Cloud Services to Oracle to cut their
| losses
|
| * An Apple VR headset
|
| * A revival of cryptocurrencies on Etherum caused by the reduced
| supply of fiat currencies
|
| * Solar AI data centers in North Africa and Arabia
|
| *edit: * War drone development will absorb all available
| engineers
| MajorBee wrote:
| > Google will sell Google Cloud Services to Oracle to cut their
| losses
|
| Now that is a hot take! I'd like to see this happen just to
| experience the meltdown this would cause in this community. If
| you thought the Sun acquisition didn't go down so well...
| franze wrote:
| Google will come out with an AI answer bot. In Beta.
|
| Will make it non Beta in 2025.
|
| Will shut it down in 2026.
| cmrdporcupine wrote:
| At least one round of layoffs at Google
|
| Return to office in most companies. Reduction in remote hiring,
| but "remote only" companies will persist to take advantage of
| more diverse labour pool.
|
| Significant drop in tech compensation, but especially in the Bay
| Area.
|
| Further collapse of crypto/web3. Some major VC who has been
| heavily pushing it will announce their divestment from further
| ventures.
|
| Some amount of intensified public/cultural backlash against LMM
| type AI. Bitter lawsuits, especially around CoPilot.
|
| Significant drops in real estate prices in places that have seen
| overheated prices for the last decade or two (in particular
| Toronto, Vancouver).
|
| Significant rise in unemployment rate, beginnings of an official
| recession by mid or late year. Inflation will drop. Potential
| major drop in oil prices as demand slackens. Perhaps leading to
| some political/economic troubles in governments heavily dependent
| on energy export revenues but this may not happen until 2024.
|
| Major shift to austerity in western/G7 countries, administered by
| both "right wing" and "progressive" governments. Similar to
| mid-90s. Effort to instil "labour discipline", rises in
| productivity, and major policy efforts to resist wage increases
| and unionization.
|
| End of interest rate increases, setting things up for cuts in
| 2024.
|
| Winter intensification of war in Ukraine leads to a stalemate at
| pretty much the current occupied areas. By mid or late year a
| "peace" deal will be arrived at -- with some territory lost by
| Ukraine (but maybe the return of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) but a
| humiliating lack of major progress on its "goals" by Russia. Both
| parties frustrated will simply use the pause in hostilities to
| heavily re-arm.
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| - Putin dies
|
| - The fascist russian federation collapses
|
| - I return to Ukraine
| ta_u wrote:
| The US will see a slowdown in GDP growth, with a rate of 0.2%,
| while the Eurozone may experience a mild recession, with a rate
| of -0.1%. Inflation will remain high, particularly in Europe,
| though it will be lower than in 2022.
|
| 90% or more of the population of China will become infected with
| SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during the first quarter. Assuming
| infection fatality rate of around 0.1%, between 1 and 1.5 million
| people may die, however the Chinese government will report
| numbers that are lower by at least an order of magnitude. The
| supply chain will be impacted, and it is possible that new
| variants may emerge and spread to the rest of the world.
|
| The Russo-Ukrainian war will continue. A second major offensive
| against Ukraine is likely. Mobilisation (both military and
| industrial) will continue, Ukrainian infrastructure and economy
| will be further damaged. There will be no negotiations. Russian
| regime won't collapse, Russia will not split, NATO will not
| become involved in fighting on Ukrainian soil. The risk of a
| full-scale nuclear war is very low, the use of tactical nuclear
| weapons is more probable, but still unlikely.
|
| China will not launch an attack on Taiwan in 2023.
|
| There will be many new startups based on the OpenAI API, and this
| market will become extremely crowded. OpenAI will continue
| updating their GPT model and release version 4, which will
| significantly improve the quality and reliability of text output
| and will be multimodal. There will be at least one major,
| publicly available, competing LLM, likely from Meta.
|
| Twitter will add the ability to make payments on their platform
| and will work on developing e-commerce capabilities. Meta will
| follow suit, most likely on Whatsapp.
| dvh wrote:
| Number 35 will be factored using Shor's algorithm on quantum
| computer.
| graeme wrote:
| 1. Complete victory for Ukraine, with Russia at minimum gone from
| Donbas and likely gone from Crimea
|
| 2. More supply trouble, not less, as Covid waves become a fact of
| life in China. This may be masked by recession
|
| 3. 2023 will be the first year people start to mutter that maybe
| Covid isn't just a cold even if you're vaccinated, and links will
| be made to rising heart attacks in working age people. However
| there will first be "the pandemic is really over now!" during the
| summer lull, before a wave of respiratory infections in the fall
|
| 4. If we're lucky, point #3 will lead to a focus on indoor air
| quality/co2 measurement, but this one isn't a prediction. It's
| the obvious eventual solution though
|
| 5. Tether blows up, and more crypto institutions blow up,
| including Binance and DCG. Likely Silvergate bank too
|
| 6. Labour force continues to "mysteriously" shrink as more people
| are knocked out by long Covid, acute illness, caring for loved
| ones, and death
| almost_usual wrote:
| Rent continues going up.
| 1f60c wrote:
| The war in Ukraine will continue, but (more?) cracks will start
| to form in the Western response come springtime.
|
| OpenAI introduces a new and improved version of GPT-3, and more
| people will ask questions about ethics and resource consumption.
|
| More politicians will attempt to ban TikTok in the US, but they
| will be unsuccessful.
|
| Twitter will suffer a devastating breach, and the fediverse will
| continue to grow.
| ihatepython wrote:
| - The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023
|
| - There is no more unhappiness
|
| - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative'
|
| - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants
|
| - There's only one kind of dance
|
| - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the
| world
| peteradio wrote:
| Come on baby lick my battery.
| ihatepython wrote:
| Boogie, Robo-Boogie
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| oooh oooh oooh one oooh oooh one
| smcl wrote:
| > There are no more humans
|
| The humans are dead!?
| Tommah wrote:
| Affirmative.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| No, we're robots.
| lelanthran wrote:
| > The humans are dead!?
|
| No, they're used as batteries /s
| giaour wrote:
| They will have poisoned our asses with poisonous gasses.
| xvilka wrote:
| Uploaded to heavens.
| nathias wrote:
| domain specific AIs start replacing software tools
| AndrewSChapman wrote:
| Agree.
| api wrote:
| AI will bring the final victory of spam over all forms of
| filtering and gate keeping that don't rely on true identity
| verification.
|
| Things like GPT-3 will revive e-mail spam that will become almost
| impossible to filter.
|
| Captchas will be solved by AI.
|
| Social media will be flooded by increasingly sophisticated bots
| programmed to push propaganda.
|
| By 2024 we will start to see even video content in places like
| YouTube and TikTok mass produced by bots.
|
| I think we are in the twilight of the era of open Internet forums
| and open social media. The future is invite only, paid, or will
| require hard identity verification.
|
| Some other bullet point predictions:
|
| - Elon Musk is forced out of Tesla.
|
| - Twitter continues to spiral down along with much of the rest of
| first and second generation social media. Elon starts looking for
| a buyer but at nowhere near what he paid for it. The whole sector
| continues to deflate with Meta also continuing its slide.
|
| - SpaceX Starship flies successfully but with some minor issues,
| and continues to take longer to develop than predicted.
|
| - Cryptocurrency continues to deflate with increasingly frantic
| attempts to thrash around and find a new application to reinflate
| it.
|
| - Russia agrees to a peace deal in Ukraine that keeps Crimea and
| a little bit of taken land in the East. The rest of Ukraine
| immediately joins NATO, making future attacks far less likely.
|
| - Donald Trump accepts a deal that sees him barred from holding
| office. He is never arrested or actually tried for anything.
|
| - Another major announcement on fusion energy is made from a
| different team, and we start to see a huge increase in fusion
| funding.
| bsuvc wrote:
| 1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on
| cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent
| another financial crisis.
|
| 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with
| the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be
| defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training
| ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court
| battle in coming years.
|
| 3. AI will drive advancements in medical treatments, especially
| in pharmaceuticals and personalized medicine. While this has
| already been happening to some extent, the recent interest in AI
| will cause an increased investment of money and resources to
| companies working in this space.
|
| 4. Year of Linux desktop!
|
| 5. Remote work will end for many, due to the recession making
| employers feel more powerful to enforce back-to-office, for which
| which many middle managers will advocate. Companies who have
| thrived with a remote culture will remain that way, but those who
| have struggled will "force" employees back to their offices full
| time.
| thefourthchime wrote:
| > Year of Linux desktop
|
| Haha, I think I've been hearing this one since 1998!
| metaltyphoon wrote:
| > Year of Linux desktop!
|
| There is always a joker :D
| bakuninsbart wrote:
| I've always been a holdout due to pc games, now I just bought
| a desktop pc for the first time in 10 years. If steam really
| manages to pull of Linux gaming, it is gonna be _my_ year of
| Linux desktop!
| digitallyfree wrote:
| Seriously though, the "Year of the Linux desktop" is when YOU
| decide that the Linux desktop is good enough and start using it
| full-time. That was many years ago for me, and for other people
| maybe it's not ready for them yet. But if you're talking about
| market share, it's going up slowly but steadily year after
| year.
| worik wrote:
| > ...the "Year of the Linux desktop" is when YOU decide that
| the Linux desktop is good enough and start using it full-
| time...
|
| 1995
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| 5. Ain't happening, too many people died or retired and the
| worker shortage won't be fixed for decades due to a population
| collapse that is starting.
| cpsns wrote:
| > Year of Linux desktop!
|
| After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced
| this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it
| wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop.
|
| I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless
| everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this)
| works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the
| single best Linux experience I have ever had.
| jraph wrote:
| > After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely
| convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any
| attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux
| desktop.
|
| I noticed but I don't think this is a satisfactory Linux
| Desktop. It goes against many stuff Linux Desktop proponents
| could be fighting for, mainly privacy and controlling one's
| computing. The main point of the Chromebook is to make your
| computer a thin client to run your computing on Google's
| servers. I think computing should go the opposite way. It's
| fast and has no virus though.
|
| As for the market share, I know nobody with a Chromebook
| around me, I don't think it's a big thing where I am.
| wan_ala wrote:
| As someone who used ChromeOS for a year or so, I think its
| kinda cool that mainstream people are using Linux, but 1:
| They don't know they are using Linux. Most users dont even
| know what Linux is. 2: Not open source. 3: Not privacy
| respecting.
| cpsns wrote:
| I really don't think open source and privacy respecting are
| requirements for the so called yotld. A desktop linux
| system usable by anyone with no prior knowledge, available
| preinstalled on devices in store, mass potential appeal,
| etc are more important.
|
| I think the fact one can pick up a chromebook and not know
| it's linux is actually part of what makes it so good. Most
| users know nothing about OSes and they shouldn't have to.
| For most people windows is just what comes on the computer
| and chromeos is exactly the same to them in that regard.
| tazoptica wrote:
| 1. Backlash against AI, due to a collapse of the market for
| commodity-grade graphic design and copywriting, begins but is not
| very effective.
|
| 2. Google stock tumbles (LLMs) and Meta continues to spiral.
| Layoffs accelerate. This leads to a proliferation of high-quality
| startup concepts but the vast majority are unable to close
| funding and therefore go nowhere.
|
| 3. Iran faces a brutal internal rebellion that entangles the
| region. Israel and the new Iran become allies, but no one knows
| what this means yet.
|
| 4. Michael O. Church's novel (Farisa's Crossing) is released.
| YC's attempts to disparage the author backfire and end up
| publicising it, causing it to win awards in 2024.
|
| 5. Vladimir Putin faces internal rebellion and possibly a coup.
| He may die, of his (probable) bowel cancer if nothing else.
|
| 6. The right wing politics and domestic violence issues of a
| small number of Silicon Valley darlings, though too few and
| anecdotal to prove a trend, get enough public exposure to cause
| widespread hatred for what's left of the tech industry. Wall
| Streeters and politicians are held to have relative moral
| authority, so expect lots of regulations. Some will be necessary
| and some will be laughably dumb.
|
| 7. Cryptocurrency collapse. Bitcoin falls to the two digits. Bank
| CEOs are fired for having gotten involved. The impoverishment of
| the Millennial generation is worsened by the crash of the one
| opportunity they had, so generational rancor increases.
|
| 8. Donald Trump, facing criminal charges and extreme
| unpopularity, attempts (but unsuccessfully this time) to foment
| violence as he did on 1/6/21. This finally leads the GOP to drop
| him, but his replacement may be worse.
|
| 9. Springtime food security issues in Europe, though extremely
| mild by world standards, cause at least one or two countries to
| turn politically radical (direction unpredictable). By December,
| neoliberalism is declared dead by (historically neoliberal)
| mainstream press outlets.
|
| 10. People continue to fail the Turing test (LLMs). The web is
| 50% bots by end of year.
|
| 11. Amazon inherits the decade. Google can't recover from LLMs
| and Meta can't recover from Meta and Apple takes a hit as right
| to repair laws are passed in Europe and North America.
|
| 12. The sudden collapses and turn offs of 2010s walled garden
| websites cause link rot sufficient to make large swathes of the
| web unusable.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Found Michael O. Church's HN account.
| tazoptica wrote:
| No, but I think my forecast stands. They will do something
| petty and it will end up helping him.
| egberts1 wrote:
| Prediction for 2023: an host-based NDR (derivative of EDR, XDR,
| IPS, IDS) shall scrub the URLs, domains, and IP addresses deemed
| unsuitable for safe usage of Internet.
|
| Most likely integrated with a web browser and compensate for
| obfuscated JavaScript/WebAssembly.
|
| This will catch fire once realized.
| fqye wrote:
| Full out invasion by Russia to Ukraine.
| readthenotes1 wrote:
| with what?
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| They think war is like in Dune; nuke the walls, then hordes
| of men rush the town.
| parasti wrote:
| It already happened this year.
| fqye wrote:
| I don't think it was full out from Russia's side. They could
| still mobilize millions and use nukes. They haven't really
| bombed Kyiv's critical infrastructures and government
| buildings, for example president's office.
|
| I think Putin will bet it all on full out war to conquer
| Ukraine in 2023. I wish I would be wrong.
| thuridas wrote:
| Russia is short of missiles. They already need to buy
| drones to Iran.
|
| Some infrastructure is not destroyed so easily and those
| are weapons not used on military targets.
|
| If you mobilize millons:
|
| A) there wouldn't be weapons, uniforms, rations, training
| for them.
|
| B) Russian logistic is already their weak link. They would
| increase the need to ship the supplies.
|
| C) who is going to keep the country working. Their economy
| world collapse
|
| D) a lot of angry people with weapons is a recipe for the
| revolution
| Jamie9912 wrote:
| - Apple's 2023 iPhone will have USB-C - Aussie dollar will get
| stronger compared to USD. Maybe 0.75
| nameforuser wrote:
| Some kind of significant progress for a custom gene editing
| treatment for a specific disease. That isn't based on anything I
| know about the research, just a wild guess.
| chx wrote:
| It's not at all hard to see the end of the blockbuster-multiplex
| studio-cinema model. Surely it'll take a few years but this year
| is absolutely grim. The top 15 superhero movies all time or in
| other words those that earned above a billion (and that's without
| adjusting for inflation) are all pre-COVID. The 2022 box office
| is a complete mess: domestically you had seven movies which were
| making significant money and that's about it. The average of
| 2017-2019 domestic box office was 11B, adjusted for inflation
| that's like 12B so this year is about 60% of the good ole' years.
| That's not "recovery" that's more like "unmitigated disaster".
|
| Internationally the #14 movie made 391M at the box office and it
| was a complete flop and the #15 made only 286M -- basically, the
| revenue just dropped off a cliff at that point.
|
| Look at 2019, family movies completely ruled the chart: The Lion
| King, Frozen II, Toy Story 4, Aladdin (these four made over a
| billion), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World...
|
| In 2022, you have Minions: The Rise of Gru and Sonic the Hedgehog
| 2 and ... that's it. So much so that I think Lightyear will be
| used in the histories to mark the beginning of the end.
|
| And look at next year's slate: who wants another Indy movie after
| bloody aliens and that fridge? Hunger Games without Jennifer
| Lawrence? Family movie wise, what are we even looking at aside
| from Mario?
|
| The game is over. Cinemas need to find a new value proposition, a
| $100 movie night for a family of four is just not attractive any
| more. They can just watch Disney+.
| jhickok wrote:
| >The game is over. Cinemas need to find a new value
| proposition, a $100 movie night for a family of four is just
| not attractive any more. They can just watch Disney+.
|
| We went to Avatar 2 and tickets + snacks were over 200 dollars.
| I haven't been to movies for a while and it's hard to see the
| value prop.
| birdymcbird wrote:
| - More gentleman layoffs at Google
|
| - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman
| layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects.
| Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to
| the market they're trying to prop the stock
|
| - The economic hard landing
|
| - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger
|
| - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe
| 150
|
| - Twitter won't have the demise the media has been predicting.
| Musk probably continues making changes and shortly doing about
| face turn on them.
|
| - Russia continues getting backed into a corner with Ukraine
| faring better and better thanks to US and Western support. Don't
| know if it will happen but increasing probability Russia uses a
| tactical nuke in Ukraine. Doubt it comes down to WW3, we'll try
| to immediately broker a peace deal, rather than getting ourselves
| (US) in a thermonuclear endgame with Russians
|
| - Streaming recession with new shows put on hold
|
| - More advances in AI like openai. Within big tech companies? Not
| so much.
|
| - Big tech culture shift, cleaning house and going back to roots
| or at least trying to find that soul. Focus on bottom line
| metrics. Oat milk lattes, no so much.
| chestervonwinch wrote:
| > - More gentleman layoffs at Google
|
| more in addition to what?
| birdymcbird wrote:
| Gentleman layoffs are when you increase bottom performer
| targets. You don't formally lay then off with generous
| severance but manage them out.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "but increasing probability Russia uses a tactical nuke in
| Ukraine."
|
| Not likely. They would have nothing to gain from it. In their
| narrative, they are protecting the ukrainians ( which are
| actually russians, whether they want or not) from the fascist
| ukrainians. Nuking russian soil does not go together with this
| and Putin struggles already to not loose his base. And any
| military advantage this would gain, would be offset by massive
| upscaling of international aid. Also the russian army is in no
| shape anymore, to fight in fallout areas.
|
| I expect a stalemate at the current frontlines, with not much
| changes in the long term.
| moonchrome wrote:
| > Nuking russian soil
|
| Russia annexed only parts of Ukraine so far. I can see them
| spinning a nuke over Kiev as defense of annexed territories.
|
| It would also fit their narrative of "only using nukes in
| defense" as they would claim Russian territory is being
| attacked.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "It would also fit their narrative of "only using nukes in
| defense" as they would claim Russian territory is being
| attacked."
|
| Their narrative is, that there is no ukrainian state. It is
| all russia. And Kiev is like a mothertown of russian
| culture.
|
| So if extremly cornered and desperate, they _might_ use a
| nuke to protect the crimea, but they could never nuke Kiev
| and live to tell the tale.
| birdymcbird wrote:
| [flagged]
| lionkor wrote:
| But... how else are we going to keep up the image that we're
| on the side of the good guys?
|
| People have been saying this shit for months, about how
| Russia will invade the rest of Europe, or drops nukes, or go
| crazy, and low and behold, they so far only did exactly what
| they said they were going to do, nothing more.
|
| If you cant support the war given those facts, and need to
| make up stories about nukes and total conquest, then maybe
| war isnt good no matter which side youre on.
| varjag wrote:
| ...exactly what they said? They were saying they are not
| going to invade as late as February 20, 2022. Then they
| said their objectives are total conquest on February 24,
| 2022 in a public TV address. They threatened nukes
| (everyone from Putin himself to TV pundits) for months
| until Xi publicly chided him.
|
| But I am impressed how one can take perhaps the most
| morally unambiguous conflict in the century so far and
| still make it an uncertainty.
| jessaustin wrote:
| Was there something ambiguous about destroying the most
| prosperous African nation?
| hutzlibu wrote:
| Are you refering to Libya?
|
| If so, you mean that Gadaffi was a saint or something?
| IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
| I call your lockebie bombing.
|
| I raise you 1 bush iraq invasion and 1 obama Afghanistan
| quagmire and drone assassinations.
|
| I'll throw in a trump TMZ secret bus recording too, just
| for kicks.
| varjag wrote:
| I guess that part when Gaddafi promised to massacre the
| revolting cities street by street got many frowning.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| >how else are we going to keep up the image that we're on
| the side of the good guys?
|
| Everything we are seeing and hearing from the people in the
| liberated areas seems to be working pretty well. I guess
| they bought into the narrative too.
| varjag wrote:
| I agree it is not likely but their made up reasons have
| nothing to do with it. The narratives shift weekly and at no
| point they've been internally consistent.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| Hm, I surely did not follow every speech of Putin or RT
| news in general, but as far as I did, the narrative that
| the Ukrainian needs to be liberated as Russians, did not
| change and has been pretty consistent.
|
| What did change, were the various threats towards the west
| and stated goals of what to achieve and back and forth with
| mobilisation and such.
|
| Putins goal is clear, he wants a Eurasian Empire. But he is
| apparently not clear on how to achieve it.
|
| (For example he would like Belarussia to join russia and
| join the war, but so far he was not able to enforce it )
| varjag wrote:
| No, the narrative is anywhere from "we're defending
| Russia proper from invasion" to "we're going after every
| Ukrainian and their children" between different (and
| sometimes the same) TV hosts and public figures.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| Like I said, I am not really a follower of russian TV, I
| mainly just read various Speeches Putin gave. And there
| was never anything close of "we're going after every
| Ukrainian and their children", that I remember.
|
| It was variations of "the NATO is coming closer to us
| everyday and we have to fight back". If you know more and
| different, pls share.
| varjag wrote:
| You must have missed the speech when Putin officially
| annexed the territory he grabbed thus far. The imperial
| irredentism has little to do with the NATO narrative. But
| as I said the consistency in Russian propaganda is never
| sought after, neither by the propagandists nor the
| willing recipients.
|
| Also, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-boss-
| says-drown-uk...
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "You must have missed the speech when Putin officially
| annexed the territory he grabbed thus far"
|
| I am pretty sure I have read it, but I don't remember
| anything close to what is in that TV show, which is
| indeed very disturbing, as it is state TV.
| nlnn wrote:
| I tried searching, but what is a gentleman layoff?
| nullsense wrote:
| I never layoff and tell.
| mkl wrote:
| It's more commonly (but still not very commonly) called a
| "gentlemen's layoff", but confusingly seems to (also?) mean
| pretty much the opposite of what curtisblaine said: "Elon
| Musk and Jason Calacanis messaged about how return-to-office
| mandates could be used as a 'gentlemen's layoff' to get
| workers to voluntarily quit" - https://archive.ph/tC9H4. No
| idea which sense birdymcbird intended.
| birdymcbird wrote:
| Gentleman layoff is how you layoff quietly without too much
| attention. Quietly raise low performer target %.
|
| Your unregretted attrition targets were 4%? Great! This year
| they're 8%.
|
| Mr. Managers, please produce this list by end of month.
| curtisblaine wrote:
| Layoffs with a very good severance package.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| The Model Y becomes the top selling car in the world in 2023.
| Other than that plug-in hybrids will get a big push in 2023.
|
| The war AI is waging in 2022 against social media and its tactic
| to convince humans to comment so similarly to ChatGPT as to
| become indistinguishable comes to light. It becomes public that
| people are training AI to train people on social media.
|
| In Ukraine mostly stalemate punctuated by horrible attacks as it
| becomes a war between how long Ukraine can endure attacks and how
| long Russia can hold on economically. Talks towards resolution
| begin in the last 2 or 3 months of 2023.
|
| Economically the world continues to teeter on the edge of what
| looks to be a major recession for an unreasonably long time.
| People argue whether or not we are in the recession and if the
| holding pattern and uncertainty is just what it looks like.
| quelsolaar wrote:
| The war in Ukraine will effectively end.
| MerelyMortal wrote:
| How do you predict that it will end?
| SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
| "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." (1)
|
| Can this war go on for many years at current intensity? No.
| Can it be sustained past the end of 2023? Maybe, maybe not.
| Can it continue to "slow burn" - possibly.
|
| 1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein#Stein's_Law
| mhuffman wrote:
| A few obvious ways:
|
| 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that
| pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to
| claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war
| (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or
|
| 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the
| Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support
| Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at home
| and politicians are on TV everyday talking about how much is
| being sent to Ukraine); or
|
| 3. Putin has a health/life issue and a Western-friendly
| replacement is installed in Russia (Putin is no Spring
| chicken!)
| prmph wrote:
| Apart from (1), the rest of your scenarios are unlikely.
|
| Assuming (1) does not happen, there is likely little chance
| of the West seriously dropping its support for Ukraine.
| Maybe popular opinion of citizens will increasingly turn
| against the support, but the governments know very well
| what kind of message not supporting Ukraine sends to
| Russia.
|
| And, Putin may well have a health/life issue, but if power
| passes to another person, it is likely to be someone even
| more hawkish than Putin. If you follow Russian opinion it
| seems Putin is seen as rather soft.
| mhuffman wrote:
| For #2, imagine how fast a new Trump presidency
| (unlikely, I think, but you take my point) would stop
| shipments to Ukraine. Also a very large economic impact
| here (say something twice the size of 2008) might have
| our government at least focused on something else rather
| than having to explain why a bunch of citizens are
| homeless and hungry but we are sending billions to
| Ukraine every month. It is one thing to support a war
| across the world when it is "just money" and everyone
| here is mostly fat and happy. It is altogether something
| else when you have to start worrying about your own
| family at home.
|
| As for #3 a new person taking power can bend to local
| sentiment to keep up pressure but without the full
| commitment that Putin is making in Ukraine. This could
| play well locally (I suspect not a lot of Russians are
| happy to die for Ukraine) and be more "Western friendly"
| than a full-on war.
| The_Colonel wrote:
| > Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that
| pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to
| claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear
| war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or
|
| That seems like a bad precedent - nuclear blackmail and
| aggression works, you get rewarded with
| territory/concessions.
|
| It is certainly a possibility, but in a way loss of
| credibility for US/West.
|
| > US loses its taste of financing and completely backing
| the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to
| support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic
| hit at home and politicians are on TV everyday talking
| about how much is being sent to Ukraine); or
|
| I think the monetary help might decrease, but the military
| help rather not. Sending old weapon stocks don't really
| produce any economic hit.
|
| > Putin has a health/life issue and a Western-friendly
| replacement is installed in Russia (Putin is no Spring
| chicken!)
|
| This is very unlikely to happen. Putin might be replaced
| one way or another, but the replacement won't be
| particularly friendly to the West. They might be slightly
| less (or more) antagonistic.
| mhuffman wrote:
| >That seems like a bad precedent
|
| We do it all the time with North Korea.
|
| >... - nuclear blackmail and aggression works, you get
| rewarded with territory/concessions.
|
| I don't think the concession would be territory, more
| likely a treaty to block NATO membership for Ukraine (say
| no Ukraine NATO membership for 20 years, or something
| like that). Possibly also deny access to join the EU
| (even though that idea has heavy steam right now).
| The_Colonel wrote:
| > We do it all the time with North Korea.
|
| Some food help is not comparable.
|
| > I don't think the concession would be territory
|
| If Russia "loses" Crimea, then it's an undeniable Russian
| fiasco and Putin has no way to claim the war as a
| success.
|
| It sounds like a weird scenario where Russia threatens to
| use nukes and then leaves satisfied with no NATO
| membership. (worth reminding that this war wasn't about
| NATO at all)
| mhuffman wrote:
| >If Russia "loses" Crimea
|
| I think Crimea is gone to Russia for good. It is out of
| play. I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine.
| In fact, I think the whole invasion of the northern
| regions was to eventually play that into a DMZ. Which it
| might still end up becoming.
|
| >It sounds like a weird scenario where Russia threatens
| to use nukes and then leaves satisfied with no NATO
| membership. (worth reminding that this war wasn't about
| NATO at all)
|
| I mean, Putin claims is was. So from his perspective, he
| can call that a win, right? If you take him at his word
| (I know!) then all he wanted was to not have NATO
| military bases on Russian borders. From that perspective,
| everything he has done so far can make a sort of sense,
| including nuclear threats. So, again, from that
| perspective, if he gets what he is publicly asking for,
| why would he not tout it as a win?
| The_Colonel wrote:
| > I think Crimea is gone to Russia for good.
|
| The problem is that Putin would probably require
| recognition of Crimea as Russian, which would essentially
| underwrite his conquest and create a precedent for
| further conquests/annexations of further regions with
| Russian majorities/minorities.
|
| > I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine.
|
| Russia pulled out of northern regions back in March and
| now occupies the east and south. TBH I'm not sure how
| seriously I should take your opinion in light of such a
| basic mistake.
|
| > So, again, from that perspective, if he gets what he is
| publicly asking for, why would he not tout it as a win?
|
| He might get what he's publicly asking for, but he's not
| getting what he actually wants. If he's willing to
| credibly threaten nuke use, I'd rather expect he will
| insist on having what he in fact wants (some sort of
| further slicing up of Ukraine).
| smileysteve wrote:
| On the US financing Ukraine, the house legislature party
| switch is likely to lead to this without any catastrophe or
| new events.
|
| Though, the US legislature is less likely to be able to
| navigate an economic disaster during this split as well.
| smcl wrote:
| re #3, aren't the senior Kremlin figures just as pro-war/Z
| as Putin (or even more so)? This would suggest that unless
| politics in Russia is completely upended in the event of
| Putin dying or being incapacitated, the war would likely
| continue or escalate :-/
| mhuffman wrote:
| Well, a new body can still talk all the same old shit,
| but give in to a (probably) popular (in Russia) sentiment
| to chill out. I don't know what the propaganda would be
| to say that they both won and also don't have parts of
| Ukraine.
| smcl wrote:
| Well let's hope so. I can't honestly say that I know all
| the intricate details (note how I said "senior Kremlin
| figures" because other than Medvedev, Prigozhin and
| Shoigu I don't know everyone involved) but I am a little
| pessimistic that a sudden change in President would make
| things better.
| mhuffman wrote:
| Better possibly in the sense that they withdraw, don't
| force as many Russians to die in actual combat, and
| mostly use missiles and border skirmishes for propaganda
| purposes. This could easily be pitched up as "keeping up
| the fight" but ease the pressure on Russian citizens ...
| so a sort of win?
| jessaustin wrote:
| _...a Western-friendly replacement is installed in
| Russia..._
|
| Some have forgotten that _Putin_ was originally declared
| "a Western-friendly replacement". The world would have been
| a more peaceful place if we hadn't interfered in Russian
| politics to support Yeltsin and his chosen successor.
| Russia isn't the only nation in which our choice (??) of
| leader has led to "blowback", both for the victim nation
| and for most Americans. We should stop doing this.
| klntsky wrote:
| Yeltsin was quite different from the successor in
| question. He "gave up" his "family" ruling in exchange
| for security guarantees.
|
| USA probably should've chosen a stronger leader to
| support, but there wasn't much choice at that time. Or at
| least they should've helped to organize the transition of
| power to someone with a more credible past than that of a
| KGB officer.
| smcl wrote:
| This is an accurate and very reasonable comment, it has
| been downvoted by people who do not know some very basic
| facts about post-USSR era Russia
| quelsolaar wrote:
| All good, but I would add a more likely senario: A
| stalemate where Ukraine efectivly regains almost all of its
| territory, Russia is unable to sustain a meaningful
| campaign, but Russia continiues limited attacks with
| missiles and some artilery pokes near the border to avoid
| lossing face.
| mhuffman wrote:
| This would gel very well with scenario #3 as well!
| SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
| 3a Although any "Putin replacement" could end the current
| Russian folly in Ukraine, if only to put a "under new
| management, I don't own the last guy's mistakes" stamp on
| their rule; but a viable replacement Russian leader is
| quite unlikely to be "Western-Friendly" in general. And
| there would then be Trouble at some point in the future.
| jerome-jh wrote:
| - Tiktok releases a free ($0, 0EUR) smartphone with its app pre-
| installed
|
| - Android 14 ships without soft keyboard, voice operation and use
| of suggestions are enforced. Can lipread for privacy.
|
| - Russia threatens the world with a climatic bomb, releasing as
| much CH4 in the atmosphere as possible, burning however
| unproductive taiga
|
| - Amazon sells its retail branch to a yet unknown Chinese group,
| only keeps media and cloud
|
| - news on TV is entirely AI generated, harvesting videos from
| social media. Only human staff in the redaction is the presenter.
|
| - well known newspapers subscription reaches $1000
|
| - Microsoft enforces Rust on all new code in Windows including
| kernel and drivers
| hakanderyal wrote:
| - AI will progress faster.
|
| - OpenAI will get at least one more big competitor.
|
| - Ukraine war will continue, but it'll be mostly forgotten by
| masses.
|
| - React will continue to grow.
|
| - Twitter won't explode and will grow more with someone else at
| the helm.
|
| - Remote work will continue to grow.
|
| - Global economy will worsen.
|
| No crazy ones here.
| n1c00o wrote:
| > OpenAI will get at least one more big competitor.
|
| Might be the time for Deepmind to attract the public's
| interest.
|
| > Ukraine war will continue, but it'll be mostly forgotten by
| masses.
|
| I think the opposite, I believe the "war" as we know it will
| quickly end, replaced by a mix of cyberwarfare and terrorism in
| Ukraine, organised by some organisations linked with Russia?
| rubberband wrote:
| I'm not that good at predicting the present, so mise well.
|
| 1. Doubts creep in as to practical usefulness of AI, and it ebbs
| a little in late November. Admittedly this is hard to quantify
| and perhaps poorly worded.
|
| 2. US housing interest rates halve by August.
|
| 3. Bitcoin to $10,000.
|
| 4. Two of the top 20 US banks get implicated in large crypto-
| scandals.
|
| 5. Amazon stock up 20% for the year.
|
| Gonna be a hoot.
| Nomentatus wrote:
| Putin assassinated by suitcase-size nuclear weapon in February
| (many of these are missing in Russia.) War continues. Second
| similar explosion removes the General first replacing him within
| a month. War continues but Russia commits less to the fight.
|
| Iran sends troops to Ukranian war; US finally retaliates
| massively vs Iran's military in the Spring, as soon as the energy
| situation for Europe is less critical.
|
| Structural change in China leaves Xi apparently still top dog;
| but now a committee (a reformed standing committee of the
| Politburo) is in charge. Little changes for citizens however
| until the next year. Friction between Russia and China after XI
| kneecapped. Cause unclear. Wolf warrior diplomats removed. Sudden
| improvement in China-India relations and industrial cooperation
| (task division.) India then steeply increases pressure vs Islamic
| citizens, removing their separate legal privileges and more. US-
| China cyber treaty sealed and seems to take hold. (Chinese
| knowledge of how much better the West did vs Russia in the
| Ukranian cyberwar changes their approach.)
|
| Western economy hums, as jobs come home; inflation declines but
| doesn't disappear. Britain's govt stable.
|
| Three Starship launches, last successful but with most first
| stage engines destroyed (not reusable) by heat. Space-X begins
| rapid development of an intermediate vehicle (IV) using a nine
| Raptor first stage and one or two Raptor second stage (also
| recoverable) with Falcon-Heavy-like variant to follow (with
| somewhat heavier payload.) Intermediate Vehicle just misses
| having a first launch before 2023 ends.
|
| Ukranian war becomes very drone dense.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| This is a nice change from the lack of bold predictions. It's
| also a good list.
| yarri wrote:
| - Zuck will spin out FB & Instagram and merge with Twitter :
| TwiGramFace
| blockwriter wrote:
| Video game companies start using ai in various tedious parts of
| the development process. Enough is done the old fashioned way
| that the result is not immediately obvious. The video game market
| is saturated with new releases.
| raphlinus wrote:
| From my world:
|
| * WebGPU will ship but early adoption will be slow.
|
| * Stable Diffusion will run on WebGPU.
|
| * Rust adoption will accelerate rapidly; C++ increasingly for
| legacy code only.
|
| * Rust will also become an official side in the Stupid Culture
| Wars.
|
| * Twitter.com will become a pale shadow of its former self (also
| having become a side in the SCW).
|
| * Mastodon will be big. It will have growing pains but deal with
| them reasonably well.
| bloopernova wrote:
| 1. A breakthrough in "deepfake voice" is made that can emote
| convincingly. It is used to add Marilyn Monroe or James Dean to a
| TV show or movie. A US supreme court challenge to the
| admissibility of audio recordings is begun, after a murder case
| is thrown out due to evidence being shown to be an audio
| deepfake.
|
| 2. A single climate catastrophe-linked weather event causes tens
| of thousands of deaths. Governments pledge action, but nothing is
| done.
|
| 3. A hedge fund backed landlord service is launched. Sold to
| businesses, it is promoted as another benefit like health
| insurance for employees. Businesses love it because they can move
| people around like cargo.
|
| 4. Evidence is found that links microplastics to anti-social
| behaviour.
|
| 5. russian losses in Ukraine top 250,000. A new attempt to take
| Kyiv is made by russia, using the better-trained mobilized
| troops.
| testmasterflex wrote:
| Can you elaborate on 4?
| bloopernova wrote:
| Basically the same as the lead exposure in children problem
| discovered by Herbert Needleman:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Needleman
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis
|
| I think that a microplastic build-up in the body will be
| discovered to lead to violent behaviour, or possibly
| cognitive impairment.
| timthelion wrote:
| I think that on #4 it is a bit bold to point to microplastics.
| However, I agree that human mental health is in decline due to
| environmental factors (as well as electronics use).
| kosmos1337 wrote:
| I'm not sure if I follow number 3, can you elaborate?
| mcs_ wrote:
| Cloud computing keeps growing.
|
| Home servers, powered by low cost hardware, may become a real
| thing.
| worik wrote:
| Mars Attacks!
| tommica wrote:
| - Pendulum will swing to server side rendering, most likely using
| live view style of techniques, ironically even in JS land
|
| - AI will be critized more, but once developer jobs are
| threatened, only then concrete talks about doing something about
| will happen, none else will be cared enough to bother
|
| - bigger zeitgeist shift from react to alternative SPA tools - it
| will enter the "enterprise" status, and will be relevant only due
| to things like MUI and ant design, and because "everyone else" is
| doing it, and devs being too afraid to suggest something else to
| their managers
| aenis wrote:
| A new AI model will emerge and offer people a cure for
| loneliness, remembering, (seemingly) caring, filling the void.
| This will disrupt the social networks big time.
|
| AI generated interactive porn grows expotentially.
|
| AI generated Content-on-demand emerges. People-generated content
| distupted: good stuff appreciates in value, anything less than
| exceptional becomes near worthless. The demise of influencers.
|
| Ukraine war ends with Russia suffering internal issues. Putin
| dead. Before that happens, Poland very close to engaging Belarus
| militarily.
|
| EU economy recovers.
| notwokeno wrote:
| >EU economy recovers.
|
| This is not going to happen for at least a generation or two.
| European countries are not having children so one of two things
| can happen:
|
| a) They finish the crisis phase of the civilization cycle and
| recover. Right now only "far right extremists" want this. The
| government of most of the nations and of the EU in particular
| is working hard against it
|
| b) Both the people and the social institutions of the European
| nations are replaced by those of foreign nations in which case
| the economies will likely end up resembling those (of Africa
| and Asia.)
|
| Either way it's absolutely not getting better on any kind of
| small time scale like a year. A couple decades is _possible_
| but extremely unlikely.
| [deleted]
| tlogan wrote:
| Here are some predictions:
|
| - 49ers wins Super Bowl
|
| - Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko dies and Russia invades
| Blarus. No war.
|
| - Ukraine war continues but Russia is willing to negotiate.
| Negotiations will start but the war is still on.
|
| - In China, Xi Jinping is replaced with somebody from Hu Jintao
| side. China's economy cools a little.
|
| - Google starts big layoffs. Considering spinning off cloud
| business.
|
| - US economy still in recession and inflation is high
|
| - AI becomes mainstream. 60% of all startups in 2023 are about
| AI.
| dmak wrote:
| - We'll see a new social network born. My guess is that it will
| try to carve out a segment from Twitter and Tiktok due to the
| recent changes from Musk and U.S. government concerns,
| respectively.
|
| - People will start realizing Vue is just AngularJS all over
| again and will further converge towards React. There is already
| many signs of this in Vue3.
|
| - Cryptocurrency regulation will be an ongoing discussion, and
| nothing will happen until SBF is in jail.
|
| - Influencers who pumped and dumped crypto will be an ongoing
| target from the SEC. The recently Coffeezilla series on Logan
| Paul will likely be made an example of.
|
| - We'll see more layoffs
|
| - We will see more millennials quit the 9-5 to pursue some kind
| of passion. My guess is most will try to be an influencer.
|
| - We'll start seeing more pirating again as people are being laid
| off and also due to the increase of streaming competitors.
|
| - Meta will likely continue to lose money and their AR strategy
| will be disrupted by Apple.
| ianai wrote:
| "We will see more millennials quit the 9-5 to pursue some kind
| of passion. My guess is most will try to be an influencer."
|
| But where do influencers get their money? Endorsements aka
| advertisements and straight from subscribers. We may already be
| seeing a contraction of the advertisers from online streaming
| so this probably has shorter legs than required to impact the
| 9-5 hegemony.
|
| Otherwise people who left the labor market probably have their
| finances tied to the stock market and interest rates - whether
| they realize it or not. The Fed has stated they will raise
| rates until the labor market moves back towards employers.
| (They are not a populist group, btw.) They absolutely think
| raising rates will push people out of retirement regardless of
| age.
|
| Personally, I think it's far past time for the labor market to
| correct towards the supply side than the demand side. Ie
| workers and worker needs/wants. This did happen after the 1918
| Pandemic. But of course that era didn't have quite the high
| powered technocratic class pushing things toward the corporates
| away from market equilibrium. (Economic theory does generally
| warn against artificial conditions thwarting equilibrium of
| supply/demand. The hell of rent caps in NYC is an example.)
|
| In short, make jobs more desirable for people to work or see an
| inefficient outcome until the market does. Let the market do
| its thing at least, or (better) reinforce workers rights-as the
| market has already pushed the equilibrium too far towards labor
| demand and away from supply.
|
| I think this looks like creative solutions around
| hours/scheduling, workplace conditions, and moving away from
| toxic environments like hire to fire, "quiet promotions", or
| under scheduling people to avoid paying benefits.
| Euphorbium wrote:
| The age of influencers is over, they are not cool anymore.
| dmak wrote:
| It's just getting started. We're on the verge of seeing the
| first few billionaire influencers emerge. That will
| definitely turn heads and drive more money towards that
| direction. We're also seeing the rise of the children of tech
| money (I forgot the name to reference this group of people),
| but they're going to be heavy on influencer lifecycles too.
| onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
| "influencer" is like Tech.
|
| Kylie isn't a billionaire because she's an "influencer" -
| she's a billionaire because she runs a traditional
| business.
|
| Just like Meta isn't a "tech" company - it's a traditional
| media / advertising company with a slightly different
| model.
| fakedang wrote:
| I disagree. Peak influencer moment was the billionaire
| status of folks like Kanye, Kardashians, Kylie Jenner, etc.
| If anything is to be seen from the past year, it's that
| they're just as vulnerable to the machinations of the
| mainstream as any one. Moreover, most of their wealth is
| pure paper - not even publicly traded. With a sure trimming
| of private valuations, they will definitely be hurt
| (although their lifestyle won't, but I doubt they are that
| stupid to showcase their lives during an actual recession
| year when it happens).
|
| Tldr:- Influencers are correlated to the markets. Market
| valuations fall, Influencers get hurt.
| coldlight wrote:
| Could you explain more (or link to an article) about how Vue is
| AngularJS (and how that's a problem)?
|
| Could be very useful as I'm a Vue fan and currently investing
| heavily careerwise.
| dmak wrote:
| It's just my personal opinion.
|
| When you learn React with JSX, you just need to know JS and
| everything else is pretty much predictable. Whereas in Vue,
| you have to learn JS and all the declaration markups of Vue
| (ex, v-bind, v-for, etc...); it's less predictable and
| someone who understands JS would still have to learn those
| things. Ex, if you knew how to write a loop in JS then you
| can write a loop to output React components. In Vue, you have
| to learn how to use v-for. When you start talking about
| filters and other things, it gets overly complicated in Vue
| (like AngularJS).
|
| Two-way binding was a thing in early AngularJS days similar
| to Vue, and they both found out through iteration that it's
| not as great in practice as in theory. I believe Vue3 is only
| one-way binding now? With the composition API, you're
| encouraged to use defineEmits as the callback mechanism to
| parent components similar to React's paradigm. When React
| came out, it was all one-way binding and it made sense and
| worked well.
|
| Vue's composition API with the defineProps and defineEmits
| creates a similar component composition structure to React's
| effect hooks. However, the general structure of the component
| still requires Vue syntax (ex, <template>, <script setup>,
| etc...). In React, you just write a JS function and return
| what you expect to render.
|
| Vue is also a bit too magical in how their props work
| especially when you are using <script setup>. It's not
| obvious that props can be inherited unless you read the
| documentation. In React, it's just JavaScript and you get the
| props through the function arguments.
|
| I think the common "strengths" of Vue are often applicable to
| all frontend frameworks, because it's all JavaScript at the
| end of the day. This is all just my opinion though.
| coldlight wrote:
| Thanks, that's a clear and thorough explanation. Enjoy your
| Christmas!
| dmak wrote:
| You're welcome! Happy holidays!
| pharmakom wrote:
| I would add to your prediction:
|
| we will see a trend away from React Hooks to something that
| feels less magical, but is also different from the old way
| of using class components.
| evnp wrote:
| We've been leaning heavily into Vue3+TSX over at
| https://radiopaper.com which addresses some of these
| gripes. It's true there's more "magic" and ceremony around
| creating components than just a simple function, but not
| much - you just return what you expect to render from the
| `setup` component method and all is well. You also get
| niceties like well-typed props & emitted events, and even
| runtime prop data validation if desired, built right in.
|
| Vue3 also has `FunctionalComponent` now for the cases where
| you really want a simple component from a function - and
| again props work beautifully with Typescript.
|
| In contrast, I'm finding integrating Typescript with the
| largely-JS React codebase I work with on the day job to be
| a bit nightmarish - the amount of prop destructuring which
| seems to happen in every single component makes typing
| their signatures a repetitive, tedious affair (largely due
| to TS's handling of destructured arguments). I'm not sure
| how universal this style is in modern React but I do seem
| to come across it pretty frequently. To be fair, React's
| simplicity does make it eminently typeable, this is more of
| a code-stylistic issue.
|
| All that said, appreciated reading your take on the two
| frameworks - it's extremely difficult to remain objective
| about the tools we use day in and out and these sorts of
| comparisons absolutely help. We all want to be moving
| towards systems we enjoy building with and will continue
| enjoying for decades - I for one am infinitely grateful to
| React and its community for bringing JSX/TSX into the world
| (which I'm sure is still a somewhat controversial stance in
| 2022- but for me personally, after a 6 or so months with
| it, the firsthand experience told me all I needed to know).
| Happy xmas to you!
| lhnz wrote:
| Prop destructuring isn't necessary. A lot of people
| changed to accessing the props via property access and
| this is often a better approach for conciseness. Don't
| force yourself to do something stylistic if it doesn't
| fit!
| evnp wrote:
| Thanks for weighing in, that's good to know. After
| wondering if this could be auto-refactored, I came across
| https://github.com/jsx-eslint/eslint-plugin-
| react/blob/maste..., will definitely have to give that
| (with `--fix`) a try in the new year and see if I can get
| the team on board! - desire for typescript being a
| compelling factor.
|
| Personally I do like the non-destructured `props.abc`
| throughout component code, really helps clarify at a
| glance where something is coming from, whether it's
| locally or externally defined, etc. Code style is an
| endless exercise in compromises/opinions though, even
| _with_ tools like eslint and prettier.
| lhnz wrote:
| One thing I'll add about `props.propertyAccess` over
| destructuring is that with TypeScript and a good IDE it
| gives you autocompletion.
| dmak wrote:
| > Vue3 also has `FunctionalComponent` now for the cases
| where you really want a simple component from a function
| - and again props work beautifully with Typescript.
|
| This kind of reinforces my point about having to learn
| Vue. I personally think it's just unnecessarily building
| more API to memorize on top of JavaScript.
|
| > In contrast, I'm finding integrating Typescript with
| the largely-JS React codebase I work with on the day job
| to be a bit nightmarish - the amount of prop
| destructuring which seems to happen in every single
| component makes typing their signatures a repetitive,
| tedious affair (largely due to TS's handling of
| destructured arguments).
|
| To be fair, I find issues with this with TypeScript
| everything. Moreover, I think that is the natural
| progression for all typed systems or languages. I
| honestly prefer JS without TypeScript. I may use
| TypeScript some times for certain areas like having
| enums.
|
| > All that said, appreciated reading your take on the two
| frameworks
|
| I'm happy to hear that!
|
| Merry Christmas to you too!
| evnp wrote:
| Fair points. I feel the need to clarify that you don't
| _need_ to use `FunctionalComponent` in bare JS, it just
| gives you an opportunity to type your component props
| (all `FunctionalComponent` is is a TS interface). This
| works just fine, from a `.tsx` file: ``` const
| MyComponent = ({ greeting = 'Hello' }) => <p>{greeting}
| world!</p>; ``` and can be used in TSX or standard-Vue
| templates as ``` <MyComponent greeting="Hi" /> ```
|
| There is certainly more surface-area to learn about than
| React, though my feeling is that hooks have evened that
| equation quite a bit (one React component class vs. a
| whole quirky hooks toolkit; and admittedly Vue has forms
| of both as well). I'd argue both are far less to learn
| than Angular - I've had a tiny bit of experience there
| and recall feeling continually lost. I also think there
| are tradeoffs that justify extra bits of learning, but
| that's a subjective matter that (imo) can only be
| informed through some amount of firsthand experience
| building something complex with the frameworks.
|
| Typescript is not everyone's cup of tea! Tradeoffs abound
| there - personally while I agree it can be cumbersome, I
| have trouble going back at this point (though I will when
| necessary). Interesting that you enjoy enums - I do as
| well but have found a distaste for them in the TS
| community which saddens me.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| -Dalle team open sources video AI to take the reigns back from
| SD.
| pagade wrote:
| - The one who was laid off/fired will form a to-be-billon-dollar
| company.
|
| - Suddenly there will be high quality, eloquent and verbose
| written form of English everywhere (emails, books, movie scripts,
| blogs, news, poems, school/college essays).
|
| - Climate change protests turns fatal.
|
| - Twitter will be on the path to profitability (don't know what
| it will have to pay for it though).
| hawski wrote:
| 98% of those predictions will fail. The remaining 2% will have a
| somewhat different scope than the author intended, including this
| one.
| hikingsimulator wrote:
| Here is what I expect:
|
| 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-
| fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British
| pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a
| massive pension crisis in England.
|
| 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this
| may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over
| the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to arm wrestle
| concessions out of the USA and EU by Russia)
|
| 3, Musk will break up twitter and spin off the valuable parts (my
| least likely prediction, he won't do away with the sunk cost
| fallacy).
|
| 4, one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes
|
| 5, Exchange of fire between Iran and the KSA over some tankers
|
| 6, the USA suffers a right wing terrorist attack against a gay
| pride event in June with 30+ deaths
| formerly_proven wrote:
| Ordered by likelihood would be 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3 - 6.) being
| unfortunately a given (the question being where and when
| they'll attack) and and 3.) not very likely.
| brutusborn wrote:
| Why do you think 6 is a given? Has political tension in the
| US just got to breaking point?
| kasey_junk wrote:
| The mass attacks on gay groups we've seen to date resemble
| hate crimes more than politically motivated terror attacks,
| so "political tension" isn't really the right term.
|
| The issue is that the right wing has steered very hard into
| anti-gay rhetoric in the last couple of cycles which
| convinces the sort of deranged people who commit mass hate
| attacks that they are doing something for a cause.
|
| Combine that with the fetishization and availability of
| military style weapons and it's pretty easy for a lone
| miscreant to kill a lot of people fast.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| ARs are quite common which is why I predict someone with
| a GAYR-15 will stop one of these attacks in its tracks
| and people will stop associating them with right wingers
| exclusively.
| kasey_junk wrote:
| It would be pretty out of vibe for someone to open carry
| an ar at a pride parade. In lots of jurisdictions it
| would incite violent police response.
| chitowneats wrote:
| [flagged]
| swores wrote:
| Such an offensively bad take. As a bi person and general
| LGBTQ+ ally, and left winger, I assure you we hope for
| violence against us to disappear entirely. Thankfully most
| right wingers also agree, but of the people who do lick
| their lips at the prospect of violence against gay people
| they're pretty much entirely right wing. But regardless of
| political orientation, the only people who don't find such
| events to be horrible and unnecessary are assholes first
| and foremost.
| chitowneats wrote:
| [flagged]
| swores wrote:
| Saying that LGBTQ / left wing people are "groomers" is
| just insanely bigoted and no more grounded in reality
| than if I baselessly said "all right wingers are
| rapists". Complete nonsense, please educate yourself.
| chitowneats wrote:
| [flagged]
| phtrivier wrote:
| > 4.one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes
|
| Oooh, come oooooon... There probably hasn't ever been a single
| year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" in
| France. And we have yet-another-pension-reform coming up.
|
| It's like predicting there will be a massive barbecue in Texas
| :P
| hikingsimulator wrote:
| I didn't mean just strikes, I said "massive strikes"! :P
|
| Burned vehicles, a few hands lost to a police grenade, maybe
| a death or two.
|
| Sure it's a low hanging fruit, but the French executive power
| has been bypassing parliament with 49.3 rulings for the past
| year to get unpopular laws and welfare undoings through.
| Something's gotta break.
| swores wrote:
| Let's not call stuff like burned vehicles and violence
| "strikes", it's rioting which can be caused by the same
| issues that lead to strikes but strikes themselves are non
| violent and the concept doesn't deserve to be tarred with
| the same brush making it seem like "massive strikes"
| automatically equate to violence.
| phtrivier wrote:
| Interestingly, they used 49.3 mostly to pass the budget,
| and they're now slightly more limited in how much they can
| use it for "regular" laws.
|
| And even if they did not have to bypass parliament, there
| would be strike (source : the last 50 years or so ?)
| BerislavLopac wrote:
| I doubt it, Russia can't fund or organise it like they did
| back then.
| ttoinou wrote:
| Covid rules calmed down french a lot
| vladvasiliu wrote:
| > There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_
| something resembling a "massive strike"
|
| Can't really remember one for this year. Then again, there
| are still five more days to.
| wott wrote:
| > Can't really remember one for this year.
|
| One not massive in numbers, but massive as impact was
| concerned: oil refineries, only 2 months ago.
|
| It impacted the whole country for weeks. As the Gilets
| Jaunes happening didn't even involve any strike, I guess
| this one qualifies even better.
| vladvasiliu wrote:
| Right. I did get the feeling I was forgetting something.
| But as you say, it didn't feature the usual large-scale
| marches through Paris.
| scrollaway wrote:
| "Predicting a massive strike in France is like predicting a
| massive barbecue in Texas". I love it, and I will steal it
| (I'm French :)).
| rapsey wrote:
| Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their
| desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon
| completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity.
|
| What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he
| is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it
| all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just
| extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty and
| Twitter is probably just going to turn into one of those. But
| the user engagement right now is higher than ever and there is
| no reason it can not be turned into a profitable business.
| Twitter crashing and burning is wishful thinking more than
| reality.
| spikeagally wrote:
| [dead]
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "he is almost certainly loving his time there right now."
|
| Certainly not. He loves the attention and power he has
| gained, but he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla
| stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless
| poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor.
|
| He did not comment on that one with "Vox Populi Vox Dei".
| JimDabell wrote:
| > he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock
| also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll
| whether he should step down, was not in his favor.
|
| The poll was just for show, and it _was_ in his favour. The
| plan was always for him to be interim CEO, with reports
| going back throughout this year all the way to May about
| this. He keeps doing this - putting up polls where he's
| already made the decision and knows the vote will just
| confirm it. Why do people keep falling for it?
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "putting up polls where he's already made the decision
| and knows the vote will just confirm it. Why do people
| keep falling for it? "
|
| Except that he did comment those other staged polls with
| "Vox Populi Vox Dei" pretty much right away and put it
| into action vs. not commenting and no action on this one.
|
| And he said many things, also that there will be no CEO
| on Twitter at all. But yes, he never intended to remain
| CEO - otherwise he would have never did the poll in the
| first place, but he definitely has no clear plan, he
| drives on sight. (And yes, in either case, he still owns
| Twitter.)
|
| And "stepping down" translates to asking whether he was
| running Twitter well. And the people said "no".
|
| Why would he want that?
|
| What would be the benefit, if it was his plan, to make
| people wanting him go? You really think there is a great
| plan behind it?
|
| The only vague thing might be to create an image of an
| reasonable emperor who listen to the people, even if it
| is unpleasant. But so far he does not really show the
| grandeur fitting that role.
| VincentEvans wrote:
| The result of the poll was never meant to change his
| plans, but I doubt that the fact that majority of people
| wanted him out didn't sting his childish thin-skinned
| ego.
|
| My bet is that he was hoping the poll were overwhelmingly
| for him staying so that he can then eventually announce
| how "he must reluctantly step down and that he knows how
| everyone is disappointed by this terrible turn of
| events".
| rapsey wrote:
| Those are all weak reasons.
|
| Musk was correctly anticipating a major down turn in the
| economy for 2022. He was saying this at the end of 2021. Of
| course Tesla went down, everything else did as well. This
| is not a surprise. Fun fact he and Thiel also correctly
| anticipated the dotcom crash before it happened and pushed
| for the last round of PayPal funding to get done quickly at
| the peak as they expected it to be the last opportunity.
|
| Twitters poor financials were known going in.
|
| I think he would need to be pretty dumb to be surprised or
| offended by the result of the poll. Being CEO or not is
| meaningless when it is a private company and he owns the
| place. His word is law no matter the CEO.
| cinntaile wrote:
| It's a bit weird to overpay for Twitter if you're
| expecting a downturn, no?
| JimDabell wrote:
| It's not as weird when you consider he paid for a lot of
| it via Tesla stock. If you think _both_ are going to
| plummet in value due to an imminent downturn, you're
| really just swapping ownership in one for the other
| irrespective of the downturn. But it doesn't seem like a
| genius plan of his - he wouldn't have bothered fighting a
| lawsuit to get out of it if that was his plan all along.
| [deleted]
| rapsey wrote:
| That was the right price at the time and patience is
| certainly not his virtue. Like I said putting it all on
| the line is how he operates.
| ulfw wrote:
| It was never the right price, which is why the twitter
| board was so happy and eager as hell to sell rather than
| stay an independent publicly traded company.
| bakuninsbart wrote:
| It is really hard to argue that this is the best way to turn
| the company around. He might get lucky with a number of
| factors,and the level of addiction of twitter nerds can't be
| overstated, but losing so much of your engineering team is
| still a major risk. Also, given the fact that a lot of
| advertisers don't seem to be pleased, it is hard to imagine
| how they are going to translate higher engagement into higher
| revenue.
| tene80i wrote:
| 3 is interesting. How could one split up twitter? What would be
| the separate parts?
| BrotherBisquick wrote:
| [flagged]
| hikingsimulator wrote:
| Way to blame the victim here.
| bloopernova wrote:
| what do you define as monstrous about the human beings you
| are vilifying?
| jayflux wrote:
| Sunak wouldn't have anything to gain by doing that, pension
| crises cause the govt a headache and they'll want to avoid it
| just as much. The last crises cost liz her job.
|
| Are you sure you're not thinking of the relaxation of ring
| fencing between investment banks and retail banks? That I know
| is more of a possibility and not related to pensions.
| hikingsimulator wrote:
| The Lord Mayor of the City of London, Nicholas Lyons, is a
| big lobbyist in favor of undoing the ring-fencing. I'm
| confident he'll try to get it done by the currently very
| friendly government of Sunak while he's in the yearly office
| -- he has till next November.
|
| The relaxation for banks under a certain amount of AuM is
| already in the pipe -- see Lyons' recent interview with
| Bloomberg. I'm expecting him to push for a larger increase of
| the ceiling amount this year, and get it. That's why I said
| "further undo."
|
| Maybe the ring-fencing will be fully removed but that won't
| happen this year.
| Aeolun wrote:
| > 6, the USA suffers a right wing terrorist attack against a
| gay pride event in June with 30+ deaths
|
| I like how you specify the month and the number of deaths to
| make it a bit more of a challenge.
| wombatpm wrote:
| June is gay pride month, which is when you will have the most
| large events. Need big numbers to hit 30+
| [deleted]
| thibran wrote:
| 2023 will be the year where normal people will be affected by the
| AI revolution.
|
| Other things that might become true:
|
| - Autonomous cars drive better than the average human
|
| - Robots starts to become a "real" marked
|
| - The Ukraine war ends (Russia looses)
|
| - Apple will no longer be the second most valuable company of the
| world
|
| - The successor of the mobile phone is presented
|
| - First satellites with telecom tower capabilities are launched
| to space
|
| - Google presents the successor to Google Search
|
| - Both popes die
|
| - Twitter will be profitable and be more like a bank than a
| social media company
|
| - PayPal will not reach the 100$ again
|
| - Trump will be officially impeached (a comedy to watch for the
| rest of the world)
|
| - The movie industry will start to produce movies again
| tester756 wrote:
| Where does your faith in "AI/ML" comes from?
|
| I'm hearing about AI being hot since probably 2014 and the
| biggest its impact that I think is close to me is search &
| recommendation and I don't think that's gonna change.
|
| Autonomous cars aren'g going to be common (let's say >=5%
| market share) in my country in next 5 years that's for sure
| thibran wrote:
| > Where does your faith in "AI/ML" comes from?
|
| Speech-to-Text works quite well these days. AI voices are
| also quite good, but the brain was missing. Now with ChatGPT
| we have an acceptable "brain" for the AI. This is why I think
| we might get this time a "real world" impact (once OpenAI
| releases an API for ChatGPT).
|
| Robots could become a thing too, just not that quickly, but
| for the next years I'm quite optimistic.
|
| > Autonomous cars aren'g going to be common
|
| I didn't say common, I just predicted that they will surpass
| the important threshold of being better than the average
| human driver.
| rffn wrote:
| 2023 will be an average year. It will not be as good as 2022 but
| will be better than 2024.
| stellalo wrote:
| So 2022 was better than average?
| rffn wrote:
| Good point. I meant to say that this regards only the three
| years mentioned. Then 2022 is above average.
|
| While un my opinion there is a downwards trend since a few
| years, I would agree that there were quite a few years better
| than 2022 if the timeframe of a few decades is looked at, so
| many that is makes it difficult for 2022 to be at or above
| average.
| parasti wrote:
| So every year has been getting and will continue to get
| progressively worse.
| zmmmmm wrote:
| - It's going to be blissfully boring
|
| - Almost nothing of note will happen
|
| Side note: love that the instruction for how to write predictions
| as a list misformatted the list the same way I always do. Would
| it be too much to wish for HN to support natural list formatting?
| devaler wrote:
| - Apple will release a display-less fitness tracker based on the
| Apple Watch.
| schappim wrote:
| The Apple Watch Shuffle
| tester756 wrote:
| To people creating various theories here
|
| Place your bets as if you were to put your money on it, otherwise
| it makes no sense :)
|
| And if you actually believe enough in something that you'd put
| money on it, then do it, and you may profit :)
| ianai wrote:
| We just might learn there's life elsewhere in the solar system
| thanks to Rocket Labs probe of Venus. Possibly a few other
| sources for this too.
|
| JWST studies will begin pouring out results as the first one year
| lockup periods expire. There absolutely will be shocking results.
| (This being a prediction thread after all.)
|
| Covid may finally recede into less and less of a concern. But
| only after China reaches a maximal level of infection and
| recovery. I read a figure somewhere they may have already had
| north of 250 million cases.
|
| Personally, I'm hoping the world steps back from the brink of
| war. Maybe the violence and failure of Russian atrocities will
| inoculate the world from a larger war. Or something way worse is
| yet to come.
|
| Really hoping at lease one solid state battery begins mass
| production. (I want an Ioniq 6.)
|
| Edit: the larger dawning of the analysis from a recent Fed report
| by the market.:
| https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the...
| jodrellblank wrote:
| > There absolutely will be shocking results.
|
| What scale of shocking are you predicting? Signs of extra
| terrestrial spaceship trails across the sky, or estimates of
| dark matter quantity adjusted by 1%?
| ianai wrote:
| It's going to fall within the scientific mission of JWST. So
| it could be exoplanet or even solar system atmospheric
| footprints that are hard to explain without biology. It did
| several observations of Trappist-1, for instance. Or even
| seeing types of stars before now only theorized like the
| darker specimens or even a strange (matter) star.
|
| Edit-You can see where JWST was pointed and when at the
| following. It goes one week at a time. The data is either
| immediately publicly available or withheld for one year for
| the requesting scientists.
| https://www.stsci.edu/jwst/science-execution/observing-
| sched...
|
| If it isn't clear I'm a total JWST fanboy then let me just
| say it. I am an absolute JWST fanboy. I think telescopes have
| the best potential for widening fields like physics,
| chemistry, and more. This because ever increasing probes of
| QM require either astronomically large particle accelerators
| or unknown ways of accelerating particles. Further, the
| universe is absolutely huge and capable of much greater
| variety than anything we can engineer. So sitting back and
| taking notes is appropriate.
| praving5 wrote:
| Life is going to be unpredictable !!
| abetusk wrote:
| Here's one that I think might actually have a chance of
| happening:
|
| - Stable diffusion but for music. That is, give a text prompt and
| get a 2-5 minute song out.
|
| So people can say things like "give me a song in the style of
| Siouxsie and the Banshee's first album, lamenting lost love" and
| get something reasonable back.
|
| It would also be nice to do a retrospective of what actually was
| predicted correctly from past predictions, specifically 2022.
| bilater wrote:
| Already happening with Harmonai and riffusion. I think this
| year it may hit an inflection point with quality though. :)
| proaralyst wrote:
| This exists, and uses stable diffusion:
| https://www.riffusion.com/
|
| It was on HN a couple of weeks ago:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33999162
| abetusk wrote:
| To me, this is not quite there. Stable diffusion produces, in
| some cases, really high quality output. The Riffusion is cool
| but still sounds a bit muddled.
|
| Put it this way, if Riffusion came out in 2023, I would only
| give myself partial credit.
| ilaksh wrote:
| - There will be further dramatic increases in AI capability as
| large firms deploy multimodal large transformer models designed
| for things like text and image completion. These will enable
| language understanding for huge models grounded by it's relation
| to images. Even more powerful will be the models that have
| ingested large amounts of captioned video as well as text and
| images.
|
| - New strategies for fast online learning will mean a few ML
| systems towards the end of 2023 that seem strangely "alive".
|
| - Teslabot makes progress and so do a few other humanoid robots
| as the increasing power of AI motivates the creation of robots
| that can take advantage of those capabilities. Militaries will
| invest heavily in humanoid robots.
|
| - China will successfully invade Taiwan, leading many to conclude
| that the US hegemony in the region is over. AI-generated and
| promoted propaganda will play a large part in motivating the hot
| war between the US and China. Hopefully this war will not be as
| devastating as we imagine it could be. Perhaps some anti-war
| efforts can also leverage AI.
|
| - due to the above, USD status as reserve currency may become
| hotly contested, especially in the east.
|
| - By the end of 2023, text-to-NeRF will be able to generate
| realistic depictions of humans of any type in any pose or
| behavior requested. Radiance field video generation will start
| with short but ultra-realistic clips.
|
| - The first orbital flights of Starship
|
| - A large number of generative AI startups will become popular.
| Some of them will connect into API hubs like Zapier, find ways to
| decompose, supplement and take full advantage of the limited
| memory of the LLMs, and enable surprisingly complex tasks to be
| handled by combining multiple agents and/or subtasks. From
| creating full web and mobile applications and games to spec, to
| truly useful customer support bots, and a huge range of new types
| of advice and entertainment built in these systems.
|
| - NFT space will see huge trend of custom orders generated by AI.
|
| - Twitter will integrate payments, Mastodon and other
| decentralized networks will integrate cryptocurrency.
|
| - Very serious effort to counter the rise of China's CDBC with an
| open cryptocurrency-based alternative.
|
| - as economic problems accelerate, socialism will see a huge
| increase in open popularity in the US.
| Dowwie wrote:
| - Facebook engineers will release a bleeding-edge technology that
| solves Facebook-sized problems most other engineering teams don't
| have. Engineers will race to adopt the technology and become
| next-gen entrepreneurs, claiming revolution, progress and
| modernization. The tech industry will cargo-cult.
|
| - People within right-to-repair states discover vehicle parts
| remotely disabled by Tesla, claiming breach of TOS. Drivers will
| be unable to drive modded vehicles without their vehicles passing
| through remote validation by Tesla servers. A lawsuit will be
| filed with the Supreme Court. American automotive companies
| quietly enable remote-disable functionality in their 2024 fleets.
| smsm42 wrote:
| - Customer support starts to massively use AI chatbots. Remaining
| human support persons are universally annoyed when nobody
| believes them that they are humans.
|
| - People start to seriously worry about AI outputs being black
| box and us not having a good understanding where it comes from
| and not being able to ensure safety and control over it. This
| does not stop commercial applications (as per above), though
| calls for regulation of the field intensify.
|
| - Russia-Ukraine war turns into a massive quagmire where none of
| the sides make any progress but nobody wants to give up anything.
| Russia manages to sustain the war through 2023, even though at
| massive costs in economic development and living standards, while
| proclaiming they are winning next month for sure.
|
| - Twitter survives and various celebrities keep publicly quitting
| it and quietly returning to it at the rate of at least one a
| month. Musk appoints a new CEO but keeps meddling anyway.
|
| - Everybody opens a Mastodon account. Nobody really uses it for
| anything, or if they do, nobody knows or cares about it.
|
| - Disney tries to expand copyright length again but fails.
|
| - It is revealed that US government (via FBI and other
| departments) directly censored speech of US citizens on the
| internet on all major social networks, and continues to do so
| presently. No consequences to anyone involved, the revelation is
| largely ignored except for some
|
| - It is revealed that the US government has implemented de-facto
| social scoring system, and is massively using it to identify
| "dangerous" people and "recommend" companies to avoid dealing
| with such people, or else. The Congress murmurs something to the
| tune "maybe we should have some oversight about it?" but nothing
| actually happens.
|
| - Towards the end of 2023, after the current 1.7 trillion
| government finance bill ends, there is a major and widely covered
| "battle" about the next one, which ends up in signing another
| spending bill, this time over 5000 pages long and costing 2.3
| trillion dollars.
|
| - US Congress tries to make a serious attempt at regulating and
| controlling crypto, but fails making much progress due to it
| changing too fast and the lawmakers disagreeing on what exactly
| they want to do with it.
|
| - Meta recognizes their metaverse is a bust, starts looking for
| the next cool toy.
| xrayarx wrote:
| HN introduces endless scrolling
| timthelion wrote:
| AI:
|
| - Composable language models will allow millions of people to
| collaborate on building/training AI without needing unusual GPUs
| or supercomputers
|
| - Large numbers will be prime factored using guesses generated by
| giant "AI" statistical models. No one will understand why it
| works.
|
| - The internet is flooded with AI generated non-sense
|
| - Search engines are forced to limit the sites they search to
| ones with verified human generated content
|
| - A new social network will form in which friend / connection
| requests are processed by passing physical business cards
|
| - Physical business cards have a renaissance as a cottage
| industry
|
| Health:
|
| - Both ADHD and Autism will be shown to be largely caused by
| pollution. A group of wealthy Californians will build a small
| city of giant greenhouses with filtered air for their children to
| grow up in.
|
| - Personal air quality monitoring devices will become ubiquitous
| in South Korea. At least one of these devices will claim to be
| able to detect viruses in the air. In 7 years The New York times
| will write a long form investigative journalism article about how
| the claim of virus detection was a giant fraud supported at the
| next to highest levels of government.
|
| - There will be a small movement of cis-gendered woman who take
| testosterone believing it helps them better compete with men. At
| least two of them will be very successfully in a non-athletic
| field to great controversy. At least one of them will publicly
| suffer severe health consequences.
|
| Military tech:
|
| - Ukraine will develop a new inexpensive, mid tech, light weight
| weapon that changes warfare significantly
|
| Economy:
|
| - The tech jobs market will continue to crash for 4 months.
| Meanwhile, companies will still need their software maintained.
| Senior developer compensation will paradoxically increase.
|
| Political:
|
| - Ukraine will retake all but the eastern most sliver of Donetsk
| and Krym
|
| - India will invade China to appease a large and violent
| nationalistic movement. They will take approximately 1.2
| kilometers of barren mountain terrain. Every one will talk about
| it as if the world is ending. There will be only two causalities.
|
| - Long term energy sovereignty will become a dominant political
| theme
|
| - Biden will spend 3 weeks in the hospital
| timthelion wrote:
| Health:
|
| - A series of videos will be released purportedly showing a set
| of prominent and wealthy US individuals arranging to have their
| own children genetically engineered for greater intelligence
| and height. These videos will seam to show that at least one US
| billionaire believes in eugenics. The New York times will cite
| expert analysis claiming these videos are deep fakes. A large
| portion of the population will believe they are real.
| timthelion wrote:
| Technology:
|
| Two seat fully self driving cars will become popular in Asia.
| They will arrive at your house with a dinner table loaded with
| Sushi and alcohol. They will be used for dating and business
| meetings rather than transportation.
| timthelion wrote:
| Note: regarding my prediction about cis-women taking
| testosterone. I really don't know enough about medicine to
| predict that T would help/hurt cis women in business/tech and
| that is NOT what I am predicting. I am only predicting that
| there will be a small movement that DOES believe it helps. And
| among any small movement of people who try to be successful a
| few succeed. There are both successful people doing the RAW
| paleo diet and successful people doing the MANA/Soylent vegan
| meal replacer diet.
| mbgerring wrote:
| My one prediction:
|
| Digital media companies continue to decline as money, attention
| and talent migrate into climate tech.
|
| There will be several multi-billion dollar deals or acquisitions
| or exits in the climate tech space despite a supposed tech
| "recession," and even the saltiest HN commenter will realize a
| global transition away from fossil fuels involves a TAM in the
| trillions of dollars.
|
| People will realize that putting pictures and video on a website
| is actually pretty easy and boring, and the "tech industry",
| especially in the SF Bay Area, will pivot to actually developing
| novel hard technology.
|
| SF will be drowning in empty PDR space, and the Board Of
| Supervisors will finally start enforcing the vacancy tax, forcing
| landlords to lower the rent.
|
| That, coupled with the Twitter bankruptcy and further rounds of
| Meta layoffs, will mean lots of bored, smart people will have
| room to experiment in a way we haven't seen in over a decade. The
| renaissance will seem obvious in hindsight.
|
| Meanwhile, "tech" people who moved their dumb crypto laundering
| startup to Miami will continue to sink, literally and
| figuratively.
| drabadur wrote:
| Frightening how many of the predictions for 2022 actually came
| true. E.g., Russia invading a country, queen dying ...
| ChildOfChaos wrote:
| That I am going to have an awesome year and do everything in my
| power to make it so.
|
| I am not sure exactly how or what yet, I haven't managed to wrap
| my mind around what that means, but I am just going to go for it.
| Not in a way that I have too much pressure on myself but in a way
| that when the year ends, I will know I did everything I could to
| make it awesome and did everything I could to grown and improve
| personally.
| lullab wrote:
| - The war in Ukraine will still be ongoing throughout the year.
| Western tiredness of the war will start to have an effect and in
| order to avoid Trump getting his second presidency, Biden will
| start seeking for a diplomatic solution. At the same time there
| will be more instability within Russia, like scattered armed
| rebellions.
|
| - Several whistleblowers, like Eric Davis, will come forward with
| information about UAP secret programs. However, thanks to
| plausible deniability, the UAP issue will remain far from being
| disclosed.
|
| - The economy will appear to be doing better until a major crash
| in the second half of the year. This will get the indexes below
| pre-covid levels by quite a substantial amount. Crypto will be
| decimated again while PM-s thrive.
| julienreszka wrote:
| - Commercial fusion becomes profitable business
|
| - Tax optimization becomes mainstream thanks to defi
|
| - There is no global recession and the world's economies reach
| unprecedented levels of high growth rates
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| They said 2023 not 2032.
| julienreszka wrote:
| Sometimes things happen unexpectedly fast, who knows.
| sethd wrote:
| A huge crisis of confidence in financial markets as larger frauds
| are uncovered.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| 1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations
| become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and
| region based.
|
| 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo
| and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in
| privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are
| slow to pick up on this.
|
| 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins
| again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in
| other geographical areas where labour costs are lower.
|
| 4. The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing
| collapses entirely.
|
| 5. Serious attempts are made to have TikTok banned in the USA.
| This becomes a hot button cultural issue.
|
| 6. There is another crypto mini boom lasting at least a couple of
| months that sees Bitcoin double in price. This ends when it turns
| out that yet another exchange was being used as a personal piggy
| bank.
|
| 7. The UK continues its long, slow slide into economic ruin,
| driven by the general incompetence of its political class.
| (admittedly you could have made this prediction most years since
| 1945 and been right,but still)
| unity1001 wrote:
| > 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino,
| Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in
| privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are
| slow to pick up on this.
|
| You forget the emergence of the creator economy, smaller
| communities and the move to the early, syndicated nature of the
| early 2000s Internet. That internet has no problems with any of
| those. All of the issues you list were created by establishment
| actors for their benefit.
| samhuk wrote:
| Not true, unfortunately.
|
| Early internet: As long as there was copper, you generally
| could exchange {protocol} (i.e. HTTP, FTP, POP3, ...) to
| {person} in {country}, quite freely.
|
| Current internet: Many egress and ingress connections are
| banned by {government agency} of {country}.
|
| Future internet: What parent comment was predicting: An
| increasing number of governments increasingly aggressively
| ban an increasing number of internet services (i.e.
| connections).
|
| It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia
| or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive
| white/blacklists of internet services.
|
| This is the "fracturing" the parent comment is alluding to.
| klntsky wrote:
| The division is not only in network infrastructure, but in
| human minds as well.
| chx wrote:
| 7. Along with the USA, let's not forget that.
|
| https://eand.co/how-america-collapsed-and-became-a-fourth-wo...
| CalChris wrote:
| The chief beneficiary of Bretton Woods was the non-West but I
| think deglobalization will be seen as simply a disengagement
| with the non-West. There will continue to be brisk trade
| between Italy and South Korea. There will be less trade between
| China and the United States.
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some
| countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than
| others. Large companies will continue to have enough political
| power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse
| globalization.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| Globalization is a bit more than just companies setting up
| shop where labour is cheapest. It is a rules based order that
| relies on institutions like the World Bank, IMF, a bunch of
| treaties and other institutions and a set of norms about how
| relations between States should be constructed. It also
| relies on an elite consensus that globalization is good. I
| think there is a sense however that this consensus is
| breaking down, hence the turn towards nativism in various
| polities. The increasing willingness of China and Russia to
| flex their muscles and (re)build regional power blocks means
| that while international trade may not decrease it may no
| longer be "global" in the way it is now.
| nine_k wrote:
| Globalization then will continue along the lines of
| cultural and political alliances. EU is one striking
| example of globalization, of you take a look from a
| perspective of 100 or even 50 years ago. Advanced chip will
| still continue to be made in Korea and (hopefully) Taiwan
| on machines built in Europe for companies that build
| products in the US and in Japan.
|
| What is going to dwindle or even cease is cooperation with
| not-exactly-friendly countries, like, well, China and
| obviously Russia, and maybe not exactly hostile but
| culturally remote, like Saudi Arabia.
|
| India and Africa will remain important cultural and
| economical battlegrounds between the West and China. China
| is investing a huge lot into African countries, and I
| suppose the more advanced of them, like Nigeria, will
| become the new "tigers" with explosive economic growth in
| the coming 15-25 years, like Korea in 1980s.
| kneebonian wrote:
| So I'd recommend checking out Peter Zeihan but he argues
| globalization isn't a natural economic result but rather
| globalization came about as the US agreed to allow other
| countries to participate in the first world market on the
| condition that they don't ally with the Soviets. Thus arguing
| globalization was only ever a security not economic policy
| and now that the security problem it is trying to solve is no
| longer there globalization is failing.
| ews wrote:
| I came here to say the same and I really like your
| description of the core idea of his last book. After
| reading it (and with some caveats and small disagreements
| such as the cost of dealing with Climate Change) it is
| clear how the US has been the gluing force of globalization
| for around 70 years as securing mechanism against the
| Soviets.
| bvoq wrote:
| also globalisation is about the only thing other than morals
| keeping us from fighting each other.
| thuridas wrote:
| '''3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring
| begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote
| or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are
| lower.'''
|
| That is something that I believe it is already happening. I
| have the feeling that Senior Developers wages are going up in
| my country no matter what happens on Twitter or Facebook.
| Simon_O_Rourke wrote:
| Depends on how they're benchmarked. If you're a non US
| employee doing senior dev work at a FAANG or FAANG-adjacent
| company then I think you are probably correct.
| rsj_hn wrote:
| [flagged]
| voisin wrote:
| > Around the same time, it's clear that there are more than
| 200K Ukrainian dead and all Narratives of them winning the
| war or even maintaining a stalemate are gone, even from
| western media.
|
| I am curious as to what leads you to make this prediction?
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Honestly it sounds like they are sick in their soul rather
| than coming from a place of logic or insight.
| xtian wrote:
| What's your logic?
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Russia will not have a sudden reversal in capabilities.
| China is not going to abandon its strategy of hedging its
| bets to tie itself to a sinking ship all of a sudden.
| Iran and Saudi Arabia will not have a sudden change of
| heart to adopt a completely opposite position. Zelensky
| is already to US liking and Ukraine has shown itself to
| be capable rather than on the verge of falling apart.
|
| Basically OP was positing a complete reversal of existing
| realities that all just happen to align with enemies of
| the US all of a sudden becoming more capable and deciding
| to band together. In reality political alliances, as well
| as military and economic capabilities, don't do screaming
| 180 degree turnarounds.
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| Not him, but from current predictions to 200k isnt that big
| of a jump. If i recall we are likely at over 100k dead
| servicemen (matching Russian losses) and something around
| 40k dead civilians.
|
| Not so sure about such a drastic shift myself, but its a
| possibility if you think of it in terms of having overdone
| the whole propaganda aspect and inadvertently triggering a
| reaction. Especially as having observed it for the better
| part of the last year, i suspect Russia has been goating
| western media/commentators/politicians into especially
| brazen stuff. To give an example for especially brazen
| instances, there is the propaganda channel "Perun" on
| youtube who does a great job framing itself as open source
| intelligence. When it came to the Ukrainian Kherson
| offensive he however dropped the ball and transparently
| crossed the line from miss- to dissinformation when he
|
| 1) Congratulated the Ukrainian government on "preserving
| manpower" by banning military age males from leaving the
| country
|
| 2) Stating that the Ukrainian military was made up solely
| from "volunteers", thus the great fighting spirit
|
| 3) Congratulating the Ukrainian government on its
| willingness to take losses in Kherson with the strategic
| aim of worsening the Russian supply situation
|
| Add to stuff like this the reports that got brazenly
| silenced like the Amnesty International report about
| Ukraine having soldiers positioned in schools and
| hospitals. The rational being that Russia knew about all
| prewar military positions in case you wondered.
|
| Its the old problem of exploiting a bogey man too brazenly
| and overdoing propaganda. Once you overdo it, you might be
| in for a rude awakening about the extend of stuff that
| stops working.
|
| edit: Minute 26:06 in the Video from 17th of September
| (Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv), Minute 27:30 and 41:40
| of the Kherson video from 20th November. Binge watched them
| so not sure where he mentioned the volunteer part, but the
| preserving manpower with ban to leave the country should be
| mentioned in the Ukrainian mobilization video. But also
| referenced at around min 13 in the Kyiv to Kharkiv video.
|
| For Amnesty Report and the backlash see
| https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-
| ukrai...
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/07/amnesty-
| intern...
| iron-s wrote:
| Those don't look like predictions, more like a wishful
| thinking of a person with close ties to russia
| [deleted]
| nindalf wrote:
| [flagged]
| kspacewalk2 wrote:
| With top notch analysis like this, you should consider
| claiming a salary from the fifth directorate of the Federal
| Security Service. This is just the kind of stuff that'll
| allow them to continue building on their stellar track record
| of 2022!
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| I am sure they are also willing to pay big rubles for
| people sabotaging the ability of western countries to have
| meaningful debates and discussions. Messing with the
| reality finding mechanism of your opponent is as good as it
| gets during wartime. And that is most effective if you
| overdrive the narratives people already believe.
|
| edit: Case and point, OP is flagged and no longer visible.
| This is how successful Russian information operations look
| like. There is nothing the Kremlin can publish that is
| going to convince any meaningful section of western
| society, but getting them to put on blinders is incredibly
| easy. And once they are on, we are screwed. When stuff
| becomes unthinkable it becomes incredibly easy to exploit.
| Not to mention that believing your own propaganda targeted
| at the morale of English speaking Russian soldiers is
| already really dangerous.
| danmaz74 wrote:
| LOL at Saudi Arabia and Iran rapprochement. It's more likely
| that Putin wins the peace Nobel prize.
| 0dayz wrote:
| As some other has pointed out this sounds way too disruptive
| to be true (how exactly would 200k deaths change the entire
| prospect of the war?).
|
| Why would the US need to replace zelensky with a "puppet"?
| Ukraine wants US boots in Ukraine.
|
| China recovery of their GDP is going to happen how? They got
| multiple issues systemically destroying their GDP growth
| (pollution, corruption, housing market collapse, over
| fishing, bad policies being enforced with no room for
| negotiation, etc. ).
|
| Just to name a few.
| JasonFruit wrote:
| [flagged]
| scrollaway wrote:
| > _Zelensky is already a US puppet_
|
| Get this shit out of HN and back to RT, please. The US is
| not the center of Europe, and Ukraine is its own country.
| JasonFruit wrote:
| We don't spend $115 billion on a country's war effort
| unless we are confident we're in control.
| scrollaway wrote:
| You're spending billions on Ukraine (thank you, btw)
| because Russia's downfall is a net benefit for the US,
| and Ukraine is a US ally.
|
| "Ally" and "puppet" are not the same thing.
| phtrivier wrote:
| To be fair, when your survival depends on the military
| spending of someone else, the lines between "alliance"
| and "vasalism" starts to blur. It will (understandably)
| take some balls for Zelensky to ever refuse anything from
| Biden in the short term ; and in the long term, US will
| likely not refrain from using the "remember when we saved
| you from Putin" card (we've heard this in France for,
| what 50 years ?)
|
| I'm pretty sure Churchill and De Gaulle were called
| "pupets of the USA" at some point, and they seem to have
| gone on _fine_.
|
| That being said, it would be foolish from the US to not
| "destroy the Russian army for less than 5% of its defense
| budget, without loosing any soldier".
| artembugara wrote:
| My predictions are all contrary to yours.
| cf141q5325 wrote:
| So you predict the end of the dollar in 2023?
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| It's not a very optimistic picture is it? Definitely feels
| like we're heading in to one of those "things are going to
| get worse before they get better" periods
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| This is optimistic from OP's point of view.
| [deleted]
| odiroot wrote:
| This sounds like you're reading a lot of Tom Clancy. Maybe
| too much.
|
| Or as other commenter said, sympathising with everything
| that's against the "bad Amis".
| mellosouls wrote:
| I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our
| biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame
| you've been hit with such a downvote attack.
| TwentyPosts wrote:
| I would not be surprised if people downvote this sort of
| comment since--no matter the predictions--it seems like an
| attempt to piggyback off the parent post to make more
| people see your own post when just posting a top-level
| comment would have been more appropriate. Not trying to
| imply intent, though.
| donkeybeer wrote:
| With use of terms like "President Harris" I think it is
| clear who is the more biased person here.
| sweezyjeezy wrote:
| > When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are
| either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour
| costs are lower.
|
| I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the
| reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world,
| but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure
| it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.
| ramesh31 wrote:
| I think SV will continue to pay top prices for world class
| talent to relocate there and work in office. Think AI PhDs,
| chip designers, systems programmers, graphics experts, and
| the like. But the days of 100k interns and 300k SWE 4's are
| over, and that portion of the workforce will devolve to the
| national average.
| biohax2015 wrote:
| I pray you are wrong
| smugma wrote:
| Americans work 15-20% more hours, at least compared to
| Europeans (<2 weeks vacation compared to 4-6, etc.), and have
| to pay huge amounts for healthcare.
|
| In almost all fields, Americans make more money.
|
| The tech 2X is that historically hiring was done for the Bay
| Area, where cost of living is crazy, and also just basic
| supply and demand. If a few dozen engineers can build
| $100M-1B+ of value, it makes sense to pay them a lot (of
| investors' money).
| sweezyjeezy wrote:
| I know, I know. But look at the difference in price
| worldwide of developers (it's so much more than 10-20%).
| Think of the 10s of thousands of engineers paid insane
| starting comp to do feature-work at the tech giants. I
| don't know, but I think this may well become a thing of the
| past in the next decade.
| weatherlite wrote:
| If a cheaper human replaced me in my job ...it means
| humans still do the job and not some A.I so glass half
| full?
| odiroot wrote:
| I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last
| one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think,
| especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically
| helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the
| continent.
| JDEW wrote:
| > The economy is more resilient...
|
| Sure, but OP said "continues to decline", not "completely
| collapses."
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| London is resilient. The rest of the country will continue
| its long decline.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| There are a few other cities that have done and are
| continuing to do well such as Manchester, but the North
| East continues to decline, Liverpool is betting that being
| a Freeport (again) will save it (it won't), Birmingham is
| just a bit rubbish, Wales is independent enough from
| Westminster to be ignored and not independent enough to
| change its own destiny, and Scotland (or the SNP)
| desperately wants to leave the UK, rejoin the EU, keep the
| oil, become a wind, wave, tech and finance powerhouse and
| also have a rainbow sparkle unicorn pony. It's not a great
| picture.
| chris_j wrote:
| What was it about the war that prevented finance moving out
| to the continent?
| dreen wrote:
| The UK government should recover after its aquisition by
| Samsung. The new owners promise streamlined design of all
| civic life features.
| benjaminwootton wrote:
| The inflation situation in the UK is getting out of hand.
| With Brexit and post Covid, companies are struggling for
| staff and the prices being charged for everything are eye
| watering.
|
| I'm not sure how that plays out, but hyperinflation can't be
| good.
| TheOtherHobbes wrote:
| I've been expecting hyperinflation since the Brexit vote.
|
| Not sure the UK is there yet, but at some point the
| situation will no longer be salvageable.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| While the city may be resilient ( and I'm a bit dubious about
| that) I think the economy outside of London is increasingly
| fragile as the past decade of under investment in
| infrastructure is really starting to bite. The levels of
| political instability also make the UK less attractive than
| it has been in the past and I can't see us getting through
| 2023 without at least one self inflicted constitutional
| crisis around either Northern Ireland or Scotland.
| tormeh wrote:
| The UK outside of London is already a relatively decrepit
| place. Tourists visiting London get an incredibly distorted
| view of the country.
| benj111 wrote:
| The economy is resilient, but steel toe cap boots can only
| help so much when you keep shooting yourself in the foot.
| klntsky wrote:
| > The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing
| collapses entirely.
|
| You assume that with the new technology the total number of
| people needed in this sector will be reduced, but I think the
| industry will simply adjust, and the only visible result would
| be that more content will be produced by the same number of
| people. This is a competitive market (your success is
| determined by the amount of money you are willing to spend on
| producing content about your product), so the same people will
| just get their share for 1000x the work they have been doing in
| the past.
| wslh wrote:
| I agree with the original premise. It is a repetition of the
| history of graphic design: around 2000 you would need a
| graphic designer to create a good website, it took time and
| several iterations. It worked similarly for years until
| Twitter Bootstrap appeared and many jumped to use it as is or
| do small custom changes.
|
| But, collapse completely is a bit extreme.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| Yeah I think I over egged this slightly. But I imagine if
| you're in a team of half a dozen copywriters like a friend
| if mine that by the end of 2023 there's only going to be
| one left.
| mdorazio wrote:
| I interpret "collapse" to mean "many people doing it full-
| time lose their jobs and the market price of the outputs
| drops significantly". In which case I agree with the
| assertion that collapse is coming soon, although having
| played with the tools quite a bit I'm not convinced on 2023.
| Definitely by the end of 2025.
| wokwokwok wrote:
| > the only visible result would be that more content will be
| produced by the same number of people
|
| That's not what they predicted; the "we just get more
| content! People won't lose their jobs..." argument aside, the
| _market_ that is willing to _spend money_ on content seems
| reasonably likely to drop off.
|
| People will continue to want content, yes.
|
| People will continue to buy content, yes.
|
| ...however, it seems difficult to believe that as companies
| that can produce the content significantly cheaper and at
| higher volumes emerge, traditional providers of eg. stock
| photography, will manage to convince people to keep paying
| the same amount for it.
|
| I personally predict a wave of race to the bottom startups
| that cheaply generate content, driving the costs to consumers
| down. Yay.
|
| However, companies will accordingly reduce their spend, and
| move off of traditional providers onto the "super cheap" new
| comers, resulting in an _overall_ collapse in the _total
| spend_ on content, even as companies get more for the money
| they do spend.
|
| There's plenty of precedent for this.
|
| If the marginal cost of producing X drop to virtually zero,
| people don't just consume more of it (well, maybe a bit
| more), they mostly just spend less money and buy the cheapest
| product.
| ghaff wrote:
| "Stock photography" covers a lot of ground. I don't see
| company art directors shifting to generative AI--at least
| not yet--for a variety of reasons, including legal
| concerns. However, you'll probably see a lot of use for
| people looking for graphics, any graphics to illustrate
| things. But for content like that, people today are
| probably mostly using Creative Commons or (more commonly)
| just grabbing stuff of the Internet.
|
| That's a statement about 2023. I don't pretend to know what
| will be the case in five years.
| nine_k wrote:
| A stock photo agency can exist even if the cost of
| acquiring a particular picture is exactly zero.
|
| Their paid service would be / always has been curation and
| selection. Customers rarely need a random picture (else
| they just use unsplash), they need a particular picture
| conveying a particular idea / mood / style.
| codegeek wrote:
| #1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization
| accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where
| labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ?
|
| Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I
| think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify.
| It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it
| considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thing.
| maerF0x0 wrote:
| Globalization is only good for GDP and only on first order
| thinking.
|
| Shipping things that could easily have been made local.
| Second order cost -- Environmental damage.
|
| Concentration of ecological damage (eg smog in China, clear
| cuts instead of selective foresting etc).
|
| Decreasing the varietals of foods brought to market so
| they're stable for shipping , easier to grade / machine.
| Second order cost -- higher risk to crop failures, loss of
| heirloom / heritage kinds.
|
| IMO much of "Globalization" is really just power and market
| arbitrage. Things are inherently cheaper or easier there, the
| people are just poorer and more desperate. As soon as they
| have a middle class the "advantage" disappears.
| kaashif wrote:
| > Shipping things that could easily have been made local.
| Second order cost -- Environmental damage.
|
| One thing I'd like to mention is that sea shipping is
| actually very efficient, and the things being shipped
| usually have much more CO2 associated with their production
| and use than the shipping itself. For shipping cars:
|
| > A cargo ship produces 16.14 grams of CO2 per metric ton
| of goods shipped per kilometer.
|
| From https://8billiontrees.com/carbon-offsets-
| credits/carbon-ecol...
|
| If we say a car weighs 2 tons and is shipped 10,000km, that
| emits 323kg of CO2. But in a year, the average car produces
| 4 tons of CO2 (in the US):
| https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-
| emissions-t...
|
| And for food it's similar:
|
| > Transport typically accounts for less than 1% of beef's
| GHG emissions: choosing to eat local has very minimal
| effects on its total footprint.
|
| From https://ourworldindata.org/food-choice-vs-eating-local
|
| I continue to believe that eating locally sourced meat is
| just a way for people to feel good while continuing to
| damage the environment 99% as much.
|
| And one last thing:
|
| > As soon as they have a middle class the "advantage"
| disappears.
|
| And how do these poor countries acquire a middle class
| without resources or trade?
|
| This isn't to say that I disagree with your overall point
| that going full on globalist has hidden costs. National
| security concerns are often not addressed for one.
| toyg wrote:
| _> the people are just poorer and more desperate_
|
| Precisely because of this, globalization is destined to
| stay. It is the ultimate wet dream of capital: an endless
| reserve of cheap labor.
|
| Marx might not have got the prognosis right, but his
| diagnosis still holds.
| nine_k wrote:
| If you look at China, it's exactly due to the West's
| insatiable appetite for cheaper labor that it has become
| more technically competent, and more well-off, especially
| the coastal cities. And this is why it now (for some
| years) ceases to be a pool of cheap labor: the living
| standards, while not near Western, have risen so much,
| the Western customers started finding the labor cost too
| high. Now it's the turn of Vietnam for many industries.
|
| Previous participants of this joyride: Japan, Korea, half
| of Southern Europe.
|
| Reserves of cheap labor are not endless, and it's _great_
| that the capital actively seeks them out and eventually
| fills them in.
| closeparen wrote:
| There are 48 US states beyond New York and California.
| r_hoods_ghost wrote:
| An alternative to globalization is not necessarily
| isolationism, which I agree is unlikely, but instead the re
| establishment of distinct blocs that operate largely
| independently of each other, according to distinct sets of
| rules, as during the Cold War when you had the (Sino) Soviet
| bloc, the "West", and a large number of countries that mostly
| traded with just their immediate neighbours or with former
| colonial powers. The current, second, period of globalized
| trade (the first ended in 1914) is built on a rules based
| international order that is beginning to break down for a
| variety of reasons, including China's increased economic
| power, the reemergence of nativism in various polities,
| Russia's desire to reestablish it's empire (I know that's a
| simplification but not by that much) and an increasing belief
| in the EU that the USA is no longer interested in being a
| guarantor of it's security. A deglobalised world is one where
| trade still happens, but it is much more likely to be
| constrained within blocs and be carried out according to
| different rules and norms depending on where you are.
| nine_k wrote:
| I suppose that right now the US is doing a colossal job of
| showing the EU how it's interested in protecting the
| Europe. The amount of total US aid to Ukraine, which is
| standing between the newly expansionist Russia and the
| West, is comparable or exceeds the EU aid, and its military
| part is significantly larger than EU's.
|
| https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-
| bilateral-...
| jensneuse wrote:
| It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions
| (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236) and search for
| the word "Russia".
| scrollaway wrote:
| Early 2022 the fears of Russia invading were real. They were
| downplayed and not talked about much in the mainstream but come
| January many already saw what Russia was up to.
|
| Mostly it's just that many of us, Ukrainians included (I speak
| from personal experience - I have Ukrainian close relatives),
| closed our eyes to Russia actually pulling the trigger. It is
| just unthinkably stupid and so, so disgusting.
|
| That said, this comment was spot on, and not just on Russia:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746942
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| I saw that too. I think Nivenkos wins the 2022 prediction
| prize.
| lhl wrote:
| I think Nivenkos did a better job than most, but actually I
| think alkonaut did a bit better from a quick skim:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29747250
|
| * Nivenkos predicted that Omicron would create natural
| immunity to COVID, but I think alkonaut's prediction was
| more nuanced/accurate: that organized responses end and
| there are new variants that we live with (although there
| has been a greater level of immune escape than expected,
| nothing has run away... so far). Note, that while down
| dramatically from the peak we are at a steady state for
| most of the year where 500 people in the US (and about the
| same number in the EU) die every day from COVID [1], just
| no one cares now.
|
| * alkonaut's Russia prediction correctly covers Russian
| annexation of Eastern Ukraine, intense conflict w/ many
| more Russian casualties than expected, the SWIFT and
| petroleum price responses and the huge role that UAVs would
| play in the conflict. What he missed was actually just how
| well Ukraine would do (no Russian victory in sight) and how
| successful/effective Ukraine's infowar/strategic game would
| be. That, the scale of Russian losses, and the huge amount
| of OSINT has prevented Russia from any of the narrative
| control people might have expected.
|
| * Republicans by all accounts should have curb-stomped Dems
| during the mid-terms, but Roe v Wade ended up being a big
| own-goal that prevented that.
|
| * alkonaut's prediction that "Boris Johnson is ousted as
| prime minster. He is replaced by a either a man of some
| charisma or a woman without charisma, as that is the
| requirement" was also quite insightful.
|
| [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-
| chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...
| scrollaway wrote:
| I like their prediction about NFTs too. Got damn close. I
| wouldn't say they're straight up toxic for everyone
| but... they're close to it.
| lhl wrote:
| Well, game companies have backed away immensely due to
| backlash, and the PFP NFTs that were all the rage has
| cooled (but continues on...) but one only has to look at
| Reddit Collectibles (or the Trump Trading Cards) to see
| that NFTs aren't dead, just evolving/dropping the
| branding. Starbucks' Odyssey is another example of this
| new wave of utility NFTs.
| wan_ala wrote:
| Yeah, I think a lot of history of the russo-ukranian war is
| not known by many americans. Many people didn't even know
| there was a war until the invasion. I remember tensions
| building up a few months before the invasion and some people
| started talking about it (I knew a political dude online who
| was talking about it a few months before, he was saying
| something about how things could go down. I wasn't really
| interested but now I realize he was right (except for him
| supporting russia tho)).
| rchaud wrote:
| > They were downplayed and not talked about much in the
| mainstream
|
| The western military intelligence communities were aware and
| had warned about Russian mobilization for months. They were
| downplayed only by far-right voices in the west that were
| invested in building up Putin as an effective authoritarian
| against the slow-moving "woke" bureaucrats of the EU and the
| US Democrats.
| jansan wrote:
| This commenter was spot on with all his predictions:
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746942
|
| I would like to know what he is predicting for 2023.
| laidoffamazon wrote:
| They were wrong on the midterms and Le Pen getting close
| (Zemmour flopped and Le Pen + Zemmour is 30% of the vote).
| The alleged economic conditions would have implied a red
| wave, but Democrats did significantly better than expected.
| rippercushions wrote:
| - Starship makes a successful orbital flight.
|
| - Russia won't start any overt military operations in Donbass,
| let alone Ukraine proper.
|
| I'm sad this guy got both his predictions wrong.
| amelius wrote:
| I guess this was mostly Ukrainians who noted this while the
| rest of the world was sleeping. And apparently, I am reading
| the wrong news sources.
| dr_dshiv wrote:
| - Starship makes a successful orbital flight. - Russia won't
| start any overt military operations in Donbass, let alone
| Ukraine proper. - Modern GPU prices are still ridiculous. -
| Europe's opinion on nuclear energy will become a tad more
| favorable. - Ethereum won't shift to Proof of Stake. - No
| major AI breakthroughs. - James Cameron's Avatar 2 won't
| bring anything groundbreaking to the table. - Apple won't
| release a VR headset.
| [deleted]
| [deleted]
| laidoffamazon wrote:
| I think the two biggest news events of this year were Russia
| and Roe being overturned, but only one prediction for Roe and
| most for Russia didn't anticipate a hot war
| phtrivier wrote:
| My general prediction is :
|
| - next year will be a mixture of things continuing to happen as
| before, and completely unexpexted events (that will actually
| play out similarly than previous events, but from a while ago.)
|
| - There will be strikes in France,
|
| - coups in south America and / or Africa,
|
| - very few plane crashes, an awful lot of car accidents
|
| - and maybe a rocket malfunction.
|
| - War in Russia will go on. (Apparently, half of all wars last
| more than a year :/ [1])
|
| - A next wave from Belarus is almost a sure thing. Not sure why
| it would work better than last one.
|
| - I don't know where it would make sense military wise for
| Russia to drop a tactical nuke. They will do if they find out.
|
| - The first power cut in a major European country will change
| the game as far as public support goes.
|
| - But gouvernements don't need public support to send weapons,
| they need industrial capability, so they will keep doing it.
|
| - Also, famous people will die in January / February. (because
| babyboom + life expectancy + winter)
|
| - Summer will be on average hotter than summers from the last
| decade.
|
| - Except during my holidays, where it will rain cats and dogs.
|
| - Finally, the year will end in December (high probability,
| high confidence)
|
| [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-
| wars...
| denton-scratch wrote:
| > War in Russia will go on.
|
| There is no war in Russia. Russia is at war, but that war is
| happening in a country called Ukraine.
| phtrivier wrote:
| I was expecting some joke around "there is no war in
| Russia, it's a special operation, yada yada". Then I reread
| myself and spotted the obvious mistake.
|
| :facepalm:
|
| (Although, technically, some parts of Ukraine are claimed
| by Russia, so... No ? Ok, no. Sorry.)
| smileysteve wrote:
| Ukraine has brought the war back to Russia in a handful of
| attacks.
|
| Another argument is that conscription leads to unrest, and
| also sowing doubt amongst the leadership is a kind of war.
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/strikes-
| deep-i...
| FeistySkink wrote:
| Do you have a source for the last two? Seems too far fetched.
| phtrivier wrote:
| I'm trying to get a double blind controlled study of the
| weather duringy holidays published, but the editor of
| Science has not returned my calls yet.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| If 2022 is anything to go by, the opposite of what we see on HN
| can be predicted. So many poor or completely wrong predictions.
|
| "Red tsunami in 2022 mid-terms, Democrats trounced in both the
| House and Senate. Biden becomes a lame duck." "Russia invades
| Ukraine with no push back." Hahahahahaha!
|
| "- Elon says something so incredibly stupid that this time it
| affects his company's performance." Well, this one finally came
| true. Maybe.
| baxtr wrote:
| * Twitter is sold to Jeff Bezos
|
| * Mark Z steps down as CEO of Meta, he is out of touch with the
| younger generation
|
| * TikTok is finally banned, YouTube shorts will take its place
| shortly after
|
| * OpenAI files for bankruptcy because they can't find a way to
| monetize
| ngcc_hk wrote:
| a) Russia and China will form a Sino-Russia protocol-empire.
|
| b) Invasion of Taiwan started with troop movement and ship
| exercise first, possible started with embargo using Cuba Crisis
| American strategy of health inspection.
|
| c) Internet splitting into regional-network with some inter-
| regional gateway (particularly along Sino-Russia plus one belt
| one road boundary).
|
| d) WTO started to collapse and democratic camp vs other started
| to form.
| fedeb95 wrote:
| Funds with high sustainability rating will burst
| NilsIRL wrote:
| I would encourage people to include probabilities with their
| predictions.
| say_it_as_it_is wrote:
| I would encourage everyone to think about how much they would
| personally be willing to bet about their prediction
| YesThatTom2 wrote:
| There should be an emoji/symbol that means "wishful thinking"
| vs. "I have data that indicated/predicts this will happen"
|
| A long time ago I realized the difference.
| barbelldan wrote:
| Freaking onslaught of no-code widgets and webapps using OpenAI
| API
| Gigachad wrote:
| HN continues to post about the RSS comeback. It never happens.
|
| Apple makes major gains in laptop market share.
|
| Linux gaming continues to improve slowly.
| pfoof wrote:
| * there will be another hype for a technology on HN that doesn't
| introduce anything revolutionary but will have 20 posts on the
| front page per day (seen this with: SQLite, Postrgres, Rust, Zig;
| downvotes incoming)
|
| * Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network
| (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to
| Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW
| (my bets are Instagram or TikTok)
|
| * There will be a larger recession among video game companies
| even compared to crypto
|
| * Inflation and energy crisis will cause such a large social
| unrest in the west that one or two governments will be
| overthrown, betting on Europe, NZ or Australia
|
| * Plenty of new AI startups will be started, some of them will
| rise to the level of OpenAI and will be successively acquired by
| FAANG in the later years
| wan_ala wrote:
| >* Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network
| (and it won't be Mastodon) Maybe I am being too optimistic but
| it kinda seems like that a big chunk of twitter refugees will
| move to Mastodon. Maybe not all of them but a lot, like how
| right now Mastodon is slowly entering the mainstream as sites
| publish articles about it and many users are already switching
| to Mastodon. And how the other Twitter alternatives are barely
| talked about but Mastodon is being brought up as an alternative
| all the time.
| theusus wrote:
| 1. Inflation will be under control by year end. 2. I will get a
| new job. 3. A new strain of Covid.
| thefourthchime wrote:
| * At least one of the next phase of FAANG companies is founded by
| folks that were part of this layoff cycle.
|
| * GPT4 blows everyone's mind and is a full step above ChatGPT
|
| * A giant leap happens with self-driving cars, making them
| finally viable.
|
| * Meta continues to implode, Zuck is forced out or brings in
| someone else to act as CEO.
|
| * Elon gets bored of his new toy (Twitter) and moves on to other
| things
|
| * Car production finally gets back to 100% and 30% of new cars
| sold are Electric by Q4.
|
| * Due to Elon's damage to the brand, Hyundai and Ford take the
| lead from Tesla.
|
| * Apple does not reveal their VR/AR project as they don't see it
| as having broad appeal.
|
| * There is an open-source version of ChatGPT/GPT3 like there was
| with DALL-E and StableDiffusion.
|
| * ChatGPT/Transformers become integrated into our daily lives and
| become invaluable tools. Google/Bing/DDG starts using it (in some
| form) for search.
|
| * With the implosion of streaming products, Hollywood goes into a
| recession, making a fraction of the projects they did in the last
| couple of years.
|
| * At least one big player merges / get bought by another. (i.e.
| AMC/Paramount)
|
| * There starts to be a return to the office. Especially in urban
| cores, this is partially spurred by younger singles that want to
| be more social.
|
| * Californians get fed up with homelessness / crime and implement
| some draconian measures to get a handle on it. (i.e. much tougher
| sentencing for car break-ins, making street camping illegal)
|
| * Trump becomes a clear 2nd to DeSantis in the GOP primary, but
| he continues to sell his brand to his followers, The GOP mostly
| abandons him.
|
| * While Putin is out of the country there is a Palace Coup.
|
| * People continue to wear masks just like they do today.
|
| * Frustrated by the US lead ban on tech licensing and equipment
| to China. Xi gets very close to invading Taiwan, but it doesn't
| happen in 2023
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| >Due to Elon's damage to the brand, Hyundai and Ford take the
| lead from Tesla.
|
| That would imply some kind of manufacturing capacity being
| magicked from somewhere. Or just a complete bottoming out of
| Tesla sales, despite them currently being higher than ever. Do
| you think Musk's being-a-dick quotient can get higher? I'm
| thinking it tops out about now, barring it becoming some kind
| of superpower.
| thefourthchime wrote:
| Good point, perhaps they don't take the lead in volume, but
| in the gain of market growth vs Tesla.
|
| I think a huge number of people aren't up on Elon's antics as
| you think. Eventually, over time they will. I'm saying while
| Elon may be at peak crazy, we're not at the general
| population knowing that.
| SyzygistSix wrote:
| Could be. Right now people are too busy buying Model Ys
| though. I have a difficult time seeing that changing.
| People like EVs. And the EVs available for sale are by and
| large Teslas, followed by VW group cars.
| timthelion wrote:
| I agree that layoffs will lead to new companies being formed.
| I'm not convinced that the self driving car thing will happen
| in the US. I think the US will be slow due to the high cost of
| american life and regulations. I think it will happen in Asia
| though.
| simonebrunozzi wrote:
| My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis):
|
| - Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming
| - back then it was a bit below $50,000)
|
| - One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it
| out (not exactly)
|
| - China will enter a recession (got this one)
|
| - 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures
| on record (quite accurate)
|
| - and also highest CO2 produced on record, caused by huge fires
| in the Russian Taiga. (almost accurate)
|
| I am actually sad that I was almost right on all of these.
|
| 2023: things will get worse (economy, climate). Quite easy to
| predict. Bitcoin will fall below 8,000.
|
| [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746497
| usehackernews wrote:
| The bitcoin one I'd disagree with, it was quite easy to see the
| drop.
|
| It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did
| hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around
| 50k to wait for 17k.
|
| Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes
| had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the
| target.
|
| I don't see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has
| followed historical precedent - going to 5k would not follow
| historical precedent.
|
| Guess we'll find out, one of us will be wrong.
| MobileVet wrote:
| The Bitcoin flow chart [0] is not holding anymore... so while
| it was always expected to drop from 60k, this current level
| is unexpected.
|
| [0] (https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/stock-to-flow/)
| bluedevil2k wrote:
| The only thing sillier than technical analysis is using
| technical analysis on make-believe money. Looking for a
| pattern is human nature. Your "sample size" of 3 is by no
| means indicative of anything. "Historical precedence" - they
| teach you to never use these words when working in finance.
| Bitcoin going to $5k is _absolutely_ in play this year when
| the scammy house of cards that is Tether finally collapses.
| brutusborn wrote:
| Are the % drops in crashes usually correlated? Or is there a
| reason that they are correlated in this case?
|
| I've never looked into Technical Analysis but I'm intrigued.
| dmak wrote:
| Would like to see some predictions in regards to China as well
| from people who are more knowledgable about everything that is
| happening there from tech to zero covid policies to protests.
| eiiot wrote:
| A wide variety of not-so-hot takes:
|
| - Twitter doesn't "die", but social media does get a lot more
| diverse. Journalism gets better because of this
|
| - Generative AI like ChatGPT goes mainstream (this may have
| already happened with ChatGPT, to an extent)
|
| - Some large earthquake in CA
|
| - Apple finally rids the world of the lightning port
| BlueTie wrote:
| 1. Gold goes up between 50%-150% as many countries offload USD-
| debt/reserves and need another globally accepted reserve.
|
| 2. Biden resigns stating mental health/old age while dodging more
| probs into family. Salts earth for a Sanders run again so has DNC
| support.
|
| 3. "Influencer" is rebranded "Coach" so they're better supported
| via subscription/services than ads.
| markessien wrote:
| My thinking (some of these may take a year or two more)
|
| - we start understanding more about how powerful neural networks
| can be in storing abstractions of information. More and more
| breakthroughs come here. A company will come that will do magical
| things - this company will not be Open AI or one of the big FAANG
|
| - Maybe not this year, but soon: new advances started in robotics
| based on generative AI. Robots start moving in far more realistic
| ways
|
| - we enter an extended stock market downturn and it does not
| recover till end of year. Companies trade at low multiples of
| revenue
|
| - German car companies aggressively catch up with Tesla in terms
| of design
|
| - Europe closes up more to migrants
|
| - There is a Russia/Ukraine settlement, with Ukraine getting a
| fast track entry to the EU.
|
| - African countries start de-facto redrawing their boarders.
| Ethiopia, Cameroun, maybe Nigeria
|
| - China invades Taiwan with the largest invasion force ever seen
|
| - The drone becomes the primary weapon of war. Every other weapon
| becomes secondary. New wars start based on drone
|
| - The value of Tesla drops down to 30% of where it currently is
|
| - The USD weakens significantly.
|
| - More mRNA treatments start being used. Sickle cell and other
| genetic diseases are first target
| jsemrau wrote:
| >New wars start based on drone That's so dystopian.
| [deleted]
| TheAceOfHearts wrote:
| Someone will put together all the key pieces needed to build AGI
| as soon as all the parts are on the board.
| glintik wrote:
| HN will finally get redesigned and good search engine with
| friendly UI.
| mkl wrote:
| The current search seems pretty good. What are your problems
| with it?
| glintik wrote:
| Hard to find valuable post or comments actually. One of the
| worst I saw before. That's why I use google to find
| something, way better.
| DaedPsyker wrote:
| Let's see
|
| 1. I think the electronic component shortage will not be as bad
| but still not normalised. 2. Europe faces another severe heat
| wave in summer 3. Russian-Ukrainian war will have Russia attempt
| another breakthrough in earlish 23 but largely face another
| standstill, both start easing their language around requirements
| for peace. 4. Europe will continue rearmament, possible some
| nascent attempts at more unified supply buying 5. Twitter is
| going to slow it's pace of policy changes, Musk will eventually
| move aside but with tight reins, Twitter will more or less look
| much like it did prior to his take over. Maybe attempts at an
| everything app, but unlikely and expect failures in it anyway. 6.
| Meta will face disappointing sales of vr headsets at Christmas.
| Zuckerberg will be facing greater pressure to act on the losses,
| possibly spin off the VR. 7. The Microsoft Activision deal will
| face serious threat, will be a general horn for increased action
| by regulators across the board on mergers and acquisitions. 8.
| Increased competitiveness between OpenAI, Google, Facebook and
| Microsoft towards creating a viable AI product, good for us, it
| should keep prices reasonable.
| karaterobot wrote:
| Glancing at those previous threads, there should be an annual "I
| was wrong about my predictions last year; here's an audit of the
| thought processes that led me astray, and here's how I'm updating
| my thinking" threads, too. Maybe a shorter a title though.
| Semaphor wrote:
| I hope I'm just pessimistic, but
|
| 1. Nationalism and racism and fascism on the rise everywhere
|
| 2. A widening of the gap between poor and rich
|
| 3. More and more corruption
|
| Obviously those are all based on recent (western) developments
| (though I'm not sure about 3. That might have been Germany
| local), but I hope, though not believe, that it won't stay like
| this.
|
| I was never a huge fan of humanity, recent years seemed to try
| and tell me that i still was too much of one.
| newaccount2021 wrote:
| [dead]
| sebastianconcpt wrote:
| 1. Less people buying the woke "narratives".
|
| 2. Groups of the radical left becoming violent.
|
| 3. More wars.
| smcl wrote:
| - Conservatives to recover in the UK polling such that an utter
| electoral collapse is no longer forecast. They still get
| predicted to lose, but they remain 2nd-largest party
|
| - Polling in Scotland to consistently show >50% support for
| independence but - or rather _therefore_ - no movement on a
| second referendum from Westminster
|
| - Collapse in cryptocurrency. Binance, Bitfinex, Crypto.com and
| the like to go bankrupt. BTC and ETH to somehow stumble on but
| continue to not be widely used outside of niche, nerdy
| applications
|
| - Something catastrophic to happen to Twitter. Bankruptcy or sold
| w/ massive haircut to the Saudis, something like that.
|
| - Ukraine to slowly retake Kherson in its entirety. Russia open
| up a new front somewhere else, together with Belarus.
|
| - Some transatlantic undersea cables are severed in an act of
| sabotage from Russia
| [deleted]
| smcl wrote:
| Perhaps a reason for the downvotes? I don't think any of these
| are controversial, hateful, nasty or anything.
| nrp wrote:
| 1. Despite the implosions of crypto, web3, and other categories,
| VCs will still make investment decisions primarily based on FOMO.
|
| 2. At least one FAANG company will have a major layoff, but due
| to poor execution and inefficiency rather than macroeconomic
| conditions.
|
| 3. China will not invade Taiwan.
|
| 4. YIMBY policies like the builder's remedy in California will
| kick in in many parts of America, but construction costs will
| have ballooned to the point that housing development in cities is
| no longer fundable, triggering a multi-year decline in the
| strength of American cities.
|
| 5. At least one generative AI product company will find a
| credible business model and escape upwards out of the hype cycle.
|
| 6. Climate change driven disasters will continue to occur, and
| younger generations will begin to gain enough power to force
| policies that can genuinely reduce carbon emissions across
| industries. Having a large carbon footprint will begin to be seen
| as gauche.
|
| Edit: One more hopefully obvious one. The tech layoffs of 2022
| will lead to a proliferation of new startups, kicking off the
| start of a new decade-long tech boom and bust cycle with some
| amazing and important products and services created!
| Iwan-Zotow wrote:
| Nuclear war
| Sateeshm wrote:
| Sveltekit will be big and will eat considerable React's share, at
| least for new projects
| TheOtherHobbes wrote:
| My most obvious prediction is that the long term, sometimes
| permanent damage Covid does to survivors will become harder and
| harder to deny. The result will be a crippled and damaged
| workforce in all countries that played fast and stupid with
| effective public health measures.
|
| This will eventually be understood to be one of those
| spectacularly irrational failures of public policy that is
| remembered for centuries.
|
| Covid itself will be tamed by UV-C in 2024, but there's still
| some way to go before that starts to happen.
|
| Climate catastrophe will really start to bite with more and more
| unprecedented and incredibly destructive extreme weather events.
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