[HN Gopher] How we slowed the subway down
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       How we slowed the subway down
        
       Author : gok
       Score  : 263 points
       Date   : 2022-12-23 23:41 UTC (23 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (homesignalblog.wordpress.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (homesignalblog.wordpress.com)
        
       | dzdt wrote:
       | After an operator-error derailment on the commuter rail line I
       | frequently ride, the response of the NTSB was to require the
       | railroad de-prioritize on-time performance and increase schedule
       | times. As a frequent rider on the route I would much rather have
       | my 15 minutes per day back and risk a once-per-century fatal
       | accident. But the risk-averse bureaucracy we've built doesn't
       | make such calculations with a balance like that: they prioritize
       | safety above all else never mind the detriments.
        
         | poslathian wrote:
         | I often wonder how we might estimate how much of the surplus
         | created by economic growth and technology has been hoovered up
         | by "alarp" in its many forms. I'm scared of the answer, and of
         | the people who wouldn't see a problem with it.
        
           | concordDance wrote:
           | For those wondering:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALARP
           | 
           | As Low As Reasonably Practical
        
         | thrashh wrote:
         | It's not a bureaucracy thing IMO
         | 
         | People are severely spooked when they hear people are injured
         | 
         | If you have customers and you want to continue having
         | customers, you really have to manage your PR. Injuries look
         | really bad
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | A bureaucracy can't ignore the possibility of a deadly crash.
         | But they chose the slow-down instead of spending the money
         | needed for safety. Which is despicable imo. But there is the
         | quandary that they know a modernization project could be a
         | disaster just all American public transit projects tend to be
         | disasters.
        
           | danuker wrote:
           | Reminds me of Atlas Shrugged, when they had to resort to
           | manual track signal switching.
           | 
           | "Physical men, serving as lamposts. You've advocated it long
           | enough--you've got what you wanted'" (pp. 875-76).
        
         | hristov wrote:
         | "Sure you save some lives but how many will be late!" I do not
         | like this math. For example the accident may not be once per
         | century. And it is good for the bureaucracy to be risk adverse
         | if it comes to my life.
         | 
         | The answer is that they should improve the technology so that
         | the system is safe and faster.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | > And it is good for the bureaucracy to be risk adverse if it
           | comes to my life.
           | 
           | Only moderately risk adverse.
           | 
           | Unless you'd approve of all roads having a 15-20mph speed
           | limit? Because that's the natural conclusion of prioritizing
           | accidents much higher than speed. And I'm not being
           | hyperbolic or using a slippery slope argument. I'm saying
           | that you _have_ to admit a tradeoff to get any kind of
           | sensible result.
        
           | quotemstr wrote:
           | > I do not like this math
           | 
           | Many policy difficulties arise from unwillingness to trade-
           | offs between "sacred" and non-"sacred" values. It's easy to
           | say that just one life is worth an arbitrary amount of non-
           | fatal inconvenience to an arbitrary number of people. It's
           | the cheap, easy platitude anyone can summon in a meeting. It
           | feels good to say. Simple. Strong. Righteous.
           | 
           | But the world doesn't work this way. Mere life does not, in
           | fact, have infinite, overriding value. Infrastructure
           | engineering is not a morality play. It's a complex set of
           | trade-offs, some involving safety. In a big system like
           | public transit, as crass as it might be to say explicitly,
           | the optimal number of deaths is seldom zero. Safety and
           | utility are not, as the moralists might insist,
           | incommensurable. They in fact exist on the same plane, and to
           | build things that are effective and efficient, we need to
           | trade them off against each other. Failure to do so leads to
           | cowardly paralysis.
           | 
           | In other words: yes, we absolutely should accept some
           | statistical nonzero risk of injury to save time or money in
           | the overwhelmingly common case, because these things
           | _matter_.
        
           | maria2 wrote:
           | Many lifetimes of time are being wasted every day to save <
           | 10 lives every century.
        
             | googlryas wrote:
             | Lifetimes aren't composed of tiny time slices of many
             | people.
        
               | nitwit005 wrote:
               | Ethics discussions often involve this sort of idea,
               | although it's usually in terms of life-years.
        
             | jraph wrote:
             | Life can't be reduced to (productive) time like this. At
             | least I find this take very sad.
        
               | quotemstr wrote:
               | > Life can't be reduced to (productive) time like this
               | 
               | Yes it can, and it's essential that we do it, because the
               | alternative is a ruinous level of risk aversion.
        
               | ErikVandeWater wrote:
               | The time they spend on the metro isn't necessarily
               | productive time. Many people would be enjoying leisure
               | with that time.
        
               | maria2 wrote:
               | Why do you find it sad? Everything has a cost. There are
               | plenty of things that harm people every single day that
               | we tolerate readily. For example, 91 lumberjacks died
               | last year. There are way fewer employed lumberjacks than
               | there are subway riders.
        
               | closeparen wrote:
               | You're right, it's even worse than that. When public
               | transit is constantly decelerating, crawling, and
               | hesitating it (correctly) communicates to the riders
               | society's judgment that they and their destinations don't
               | matter. That if your trip mattered you would have your
               | own car. It sets a waiting room atmosphere. Public
               | transit is a purgatory for those with nowhere else to be
               | to while away the hours. And pretty soon that's who your
               | ridership is and what they're doing there.
        
               | nullc wrote:
               | You don't necessarily need to make that comparison: If
               | you make the trains too slow many people will drive
               | instead which is radically more likely to kill them than
               | the train.
               | 
               | So you can still find that there is a speed risk tradeoff
               | the minimizes death which is not the same as minimizing
               | the train risk.
               | 
               | Worse for NY's problems is that in that decision people
               | are probably using something like the 95-percentile trip
               | time as the criteria: It doesn't help them if the train
               | is fast on average since they need to schedule for the
               | worst-likely case. The fact that the crews are playing
               | roulette with an kafkaesque speed limiter system and
               | risking disciplinary action should they anger it
               | essentially guarantees that the times will be both slow
               | and highly inconsistent.
        
               | jraph wrote:
               | Indeed fully receptive to this argument.
        
             | rocqua wrote:
             | What death risk are you talking about? Seems like an
             | interesting anecdote.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _the accident may not be once per century. And it is good
           | for the bureaucracy to be risk adverse if it comes to my
           | life_
           | 
           | People stop taking the subway when it takes too long. That
           | not only increases traffic, it also saps the system of
           | funding.
        
           | gruturo wrote:
           | If OP's subway carried 80k people per day (and I guess this
           | could be conservative), and they are all delayed 15 minutes,
           | the overall wasted time equals 1 lifetime per month.
           | 
           | I'm all for improving the technology, but in the meantime the
           | math should absolutely be done, at least to ensure the
           | temporary fix isn't worse than the problem.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | There are feedback mechanisms here which shift where people
             | live and work in response to changes in transportation
             | times. Which means you can't simply extrapolate like that
             | over time.
        
             | vosper wrote:
             | Is it necessarily wasted, though? If the subway is tedious
             | and unpleasant, then sure. But if I get a seat and I get 15
             | more minutes reading or staring out the window, then I'm
             | probably not calling that a complete waste.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | Getting a seat on the NYC subway? Lol.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | Quite doable these days; I'd say 90% of my recent rides
               | (Q, B, A, C lines).
               | 
               | Was a total piece of cake in 2020, of course %)
        
               | ErikVandeWater wrote:
               | If you told New Yorkers they had the option to live 15
               | minutes longer, but that is added time on the NYC subway,
               | I think most would turn it down.
        
             | concordDance wrote:
             | You need to adjust for the QALY level of riding a train
             | compared to the rest of people's lives. Train riding isn't
             | much fun, but it's much better than being dead.
             | 
             | Your point probably still holds though.
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | Jokes aside time spend on the subway isn't actually
             | equivalent to time spend dead, we shouldn't trade them one-
             | for-one.
             | 
             | Also the "one extra death per century" measure seems to be
             | derived via the method of rectal extrication, we don't know
             | how many deaths a schedule change might cause or prevent at
             | all, and I bet the people working on the subway have, if
             | anything, some idea with massive error bars.
             | 
             | I dunno the math seems basically impossible to do, I mean
             | it would have to include things like "how to people,
             | possibly irrationally, respond to deaths on the subway."
        
           | barry-cotter wrote:
           | > "Sure you save some lives but how many will be late!" I do
           | not like this math. For example the accident may not be once
           | per century. And it is good for the bureaucracy to be risk
           | adverse if it comes to my life.
           | 
           | I hope you're campaigning for a nationwide speed limit for
           | automobiles of 20mph. It is good for the bureaucracy to be
           | risk averse with loves after all.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | When the train is often late, it simply pushes people to
           | drive more, and depending on the specifics driving on the
           | highway could very well be less safe. Ergo, it results in a
           | net loss of lives. This is pointed out near the end of the
           | article.
        
           | nostromo wrote:
           | > "Sure you save some lives but how many will be late!"
           | 
           | You make this trade off every day without admitting it in
           | such stark terms.
           | 
           | Every time you drive, bike, or fly to a destination you're
           | choosing speed at an increased risk of injury or death.
        
             | concordDance wrote:
             | Note that flying is safer than walking.
        
           | gok wrote:
           | Practically what happens is many people switch to driving and
           | waste more lives
        
           | rocqua wrote:
           | How much delay is acceptable for a 0.001% point yearly
           | mortality reduction on a busy rail line? Certainly not an
           | hour. So there is some tradeof.
           | 
           | Notably the lives OP was talking about included his own. I
           | think that matters quite a bit. Risking your own life for
           | better speed is a different ballgame than deciding the risk
           | other people run is fine.
        
           | fukutyphoo wrote:
           | Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan had a system designed
           | for a 1 in 100 year accident. It happened after 8 years.
           | https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/3016087/
           | PS, this is a great video about the typhoon that caused the
           | disaster.
           | 
           | Disasters are Black Swan Events
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory in Talebsbook
           | he explains (ok it's a theory) that rare events happen
           | commonly.
           | 
           | See also Terry Pratchet "one in a million chances happen nine
           | times out of ten"
        
         | nkrisc wrote:
         | Kinda sucks for the people who get killed so you can arrive
         | sooner though, right?
        
         | rtpg wrote:
         | What if we actually just operated trains safely, made
         | improvements to the system, and then sped things up _because we
         | improved the safety to make it possible?_
         | 
         | "We risk crashes or make everything slow" is a false choice
         | when we're talking about years-long perspectives. Especially
         | given that there are lots of contributors to throughput and
         | slowness.
        
         | themitigating wrote:
         | But if you were in that accident or a parent/friend in it you'd
         | have the opposite opinion and demand "the politicans make
         | things safer "
         | 
         | You're just a selfish npc
        
       | valyagolev wrote:
       | this is the kind of nitty-gritty stuff I wish railroad management
       | games would show, a lot of them are very arcade-like in
       | comparison
        
       | breck wrote:
       | tldr;?
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | Signals designed for slower trains were unsafe with faster
         | trains and bad maintenance unless the separation between trains
         | was massively increased and speed limits were aggressively
         | enforced.
         | 
         | Bureaucracy was slow to recognize this causing accidents. Then
         | in an overreaction to accidents they added slowdowns and
         | increased separation, without doing a whole overhaul of the
         | system. Then maintenance issues on speedometers and speed
         | signals forced trains well below speed limits to prevent
         | accidental triggering of speed signals. Also trigger spreed
         | signals that were known to be defective was blamed harshly on
         | operators.
        
       | danbmil99 wrote:
       | This reminds me of the trouble they've had upgrading Air Traffic
       | Control systems.
       | 
       | I grew up in Manhattan and rode the subway constantly. I remember
       | sometimes taking the front car, looking out the window and
       | wondering what the odds were of a collision. Then a friend
       | explained how the red light control system made it physically
       | impossible for one train to crash into another.
       | 
       | Ha! Glad I didn't know the truth back then, I might have
       | developed a phobia about using the subway.
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | My takeaway: imagine we decided the _enforce_ no crashes on
       | roads. The second a driver comes too close behind another car or
       | breaches speed limits, the car enforces their brakes on.
       | 
       | Yeah I can see how the knock on tailbacks and flow will make
       | roads insane.
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | Self-driving convoying essentially boils down to doing this.
         | The problem in your approach is fully locking the brakes rather
         | than slightly decelerating the car.
         | 
         | I'd also guess that after 2 years of your system most people
         | would manage to keep their distance. Would probably work great
         | except for merging.
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | I am however convinced by the "less cars, not self driving
           | cars" argument.
           | 
           | Urban redesign, reclaiming back some of the on average 1/3 of
           | city surface area dedicated to cars / roads, more reliable
           | public surface transport (I mean are we seriously asking "can
           | we increase the likelihood of a subway crash in order to
           | increase capacity" instead of asking "why don't we have
           | hundreds or thousands more buses on the roads"?
           | 
           | There is a whole polemic Inshoukd be writing about how
           | societies use stickingmplaster solutions over actual
           | solutions - from Iran 1956 to 6th gen aircraft, meat eating,
           | brexit,
           | 
           | it's a long polemic
        
             | rocqua wrote:
             | In America, you are presumably correct, though it is
             | somewhat of a false dichotomy. In less car based countries
             | like my home country the Netherlands, there isn't as much
             | room for 'less cars' (though still plenty, just nowhere
             | near as bad as America). Hence self-driving cars here are
             | more important.
             | 
             | Besides the solution in America is likely to be both less
             | cars and self driving cars. So it's not like self driving
             | cars aren't worth developing. They are, however, not an
             | argument that "we don't need to get alternatives to cars".
        
               | lifeisstillgood wrote:
               | The problem (as I see it) was s not R&D, it's human
               | nature. If there is a possible self driving car we can
               | put things off, imagine a different mix etc.
               | 
               | Almost all of the climate chnage debate is really
               | (excluding the fringes) not "is climate chnage real" but
               | "exactly how much do I have to do to fix it".
               | 
               | An analogy is I don't dispute that I am overweight, and
               | that will impact my lifespan, but t there is a debate on
               | whether that means a calorie controlled plant based diet
               | from tonight along with four hours in the gym each day,
               | or I "make an effort to cut down".
               | 
               | Imagine AOC and Greta Thunberg as the personal trainers,
               | and Bjorn Lornborg as the CEO of low calorie beer and no-
               | salt chips LLC.
               | 
               | I think I have wondered off the point - but essentially
               | we have within us the solution to all our ills. Politics
               | is just the voices in our heads as we try to talk
               | ourselves into going to the gym and sticking to a budget.
        
       | kylehotchkiss wrote:
       | This plus the well-documented safety issues happening on public
       | transit across the country will keep the personal vehicle market
       | strong for decades to come. There's no future in US where public
       | transit is so good that it takes a notable amount of cars off the
       | road until we can culturally conquer hard problems like these
       | (like close down the line for 3 months to improve) and actually
       | police the systems (fun fact - almost every big city in india has
       | to go through metal detector and bag though x-ray to ride the
       | metro, I'd love this in US)
        
       | mildchalupa wrote:
       | One of the things that I find interesting in terms of long
       | lasting standard or infrastructure development is that small
       | variations in design choices early in a system result in
       | radically different performance down the line. For instance the
       | width or guage of a train track will greatly influence the
       | carrying capacity and the size of objects transportable via rail.
       | Same for the size of lane of road. Infrastructure, and standards
       | tend to have an inertia like quality as changeover to a slightly
       | improved system takes significant capital.
       | 
       | In general it seems absolutely insane to me that we rely on an
       | antique control strategy for the Subway while in other industries
       | outside of rail such as aviation or automotive such a system
       | would be easily automated.
        
         | pantalaimon wrote:
         | The subway is actually a systems that is easier to change than
         | others (unless you talk about the physical dimensions of the
         | train) since it's an isolated system and lines are usually
         | separate too, so you don't have to change it all at one.
        
           | bregma wrote:
           | You're not describing the New York City subway. The L line
           | was separated from pretty much everything else so it got
           | upgraded to CBTC over a few years as budget, time
           | constraints, and politics allowed. The rest of the network is
           | thoroughly interwoven and runs 24x7. It also carries more
           | people daily than all the other systems on the continent
           | combined.
        
           | Tokkemon wrote:
           | Sure, but the New York Subway is the most interlined metro
           | system in the world. You have to essentially change
           | everything at once, or at least go trunk line by trunk line,
           | or run two separate systems concurrently. None of which are
           | easy options.
        
       | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
       | The obvious solution seems to be to technically enforce the speed
       | limits _without_ relying on average-speed-through-section, which
       | seems to have been done way too late.
       | 
       | Likewise, the yellow signals could trigger enforcement of a
       | braking curve to ensure the train will have a sufficiently low
       | speed at the next red signal. (This is how one of the German
       | systems works - PZB, not a modern one either, I think the
       | braking-curve-enforcement was introduced in the 1950s.)
       | 
       |  _Especially_ if the  "too much acceleration" problem only
       | applies to new trains, that also conveniently addresses the
       | upgrading issue - old trains accelerate slow enough to be safe
       | under the old rules, new trains can have e.g. a speed limiter.
       | 
       | It's also just one subway system, not an entire national railway
       | network, which should make modernization a lot easier. But I
       | guess given that apparently actually using regenerative braking
       | was a new thing in 2018
       | (https://www.progressiverailroading.com/sustainability/news/M...)
       | despite the heat issues in the stations, I guess that's expecting
       | too much.
        
         | pantalaimon wrote:
         | PZB was already introduced in 1934
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punktformige_Zugbeeinflussun...
        
           | usr1106 wrote:
           | The previous commenter did not say PZB were introduced in the
           | 1950s, but adaptation to braking curve. Not an expert in the
           | area, but I very vaguely remember that 1 out of 3 braking
           | curves is selected for each train. Not sure how big the risk
           | is that trains would operate under the wrong braking curve
           | and whether that has ever materialized in form of an
           | accident.
           | 
           | Edit: Selecting a braking curve seems important when the same
           | engine can haul passenger trains and freight trains. That was
           | rather common in Germany decades ago, probably less so today.
           | Doesn't seem relevant for EMUs like on the NYC subway.
        
       | hristov wrote:
       | It is actually bonkers that in this day and age the NYC subway
       | cannot install accurate speed gauges on their trains. You can get
       | an accurate bike speedometer for $20 on amazon, but the NYC
       | subway cannot provide an accurate speedometer for train carrying
       | a couple of hundred people. It is true that trains require more
       | rigorous standards, but it is not a difficult problem. For
       | example you can put a sensor on the electrical motor that will
       | accurately measure motor position. This will allow you to derive
       | speed, as subway motors are directly geared to the wheels at a
       | single unchanging gear ratio.
       | 
       | Same thing for stationary speed sensors in the signaling system.
       | It is maddening that they have to time a train over a distance of
       | 50 feet and use an electro-mechanical timing mechanism. Which has
       | to be regularly maintained and it tends to give wrong readings
       | when not properly maintained, etc. Why not get an instantaneous
       | speed reading with lasers? Those have worked for police officers
       | for 40 years now. Or infrared. Or if you have to time a train
       | over a distance time it with a purely electronic system over a
       | distance of a couple of inches. There are definitely electronics
       | fast enough to do that nowadays. And you can get a purely
       | electronic system that requires zero or almost zero maintenance.
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | My understanding from TFA is that this isn't the problem at
         | all: most (all?) of the modern trainsets do have speedometers
         | that the conductor can read. The problem is not measuring the
         | speed; it's that the city's signaling scheme no longer matches
         | the handling conditions of the trains that run over it.
         | 
         | In other words: the conductor might be operating the train at a
         | perfectly reasonable speed according to their accurate
         | instruments _and_ the track signals, but the track signals are
         | no longer calibrated for their trainset or the upgrades done to
         | it over the years. This has made conductors excessively
         | cautious, precipitating the recent slowdown crisis on the
         | subway.
        
           | rocqua wrote:
           | From the article:
           | 
           | Unfortunately, thanks to a combination of poor design choices
           | and poor upkeep, many of these speedometers have proven to be
           | wildly unreliable. So, as train crews navigated the
           | increasingly speed-controlled subway of the aughts, they not
           | only had to build uncertainty around signal design, but
           | equally about the accuracy of their on-train equipment.
           | 
           | In other words the problem is both inaccurate signals and
           | inaccurate speedometers. The combination requiring operators
           | to be much more careful, and making them lose faith in their
           | data. Exacerbating this is that signal trips caused by faulty
           | timers were still blamed on operators. Making them also lose
           | faith in management. Presumably, this wasn't good for the
           | relationships between management and unions, hence probably
           | contributing to strikes.
        
         | notmtaemployee wrote:
         | A couple of thoughts:
         | 
         | The approach you describe to measure speed from the motor
         | position is essentially what subway cars use. Ignoring wheel
         | slip, which is not a rare phenomenon, this approach works very
         | well. However, when you defer maintenance, things operated in
         | harsh environments _will_ eventually break down.
         | 
         | (Within the context of the issues mentioned by the linked 2018
         | NY Post article) Speedometers were (bizarrely) judged as non-
         | critical parts (i.e., the car can still be used in service with
         | it broken) because, after all, the signaling system will catch
         | any over-speed, thus the repair, and more importantly the
         | maintenance, of speedometers was not prioritized. Thankfully
         | most of Cuomo's goons and bean counters have been pushed out.
         | 
         | As for the wayside speed enforcement, the author only briefly
         | touched on the solutions to the problem described in the
         | article, but it's known as Communications Based Train Control
         | (CBTC)[1]. It's a moving block system (compared to current
         | fixed block signals) that used train speed, track geometry, and
         | the location of other trains to determine maximum safe
         | operating speed.
         | 
         | I would argue that it's not "maddening" to control subway speed
         | with electro-mechanical timing mechanisms, control lengths,
         | etc. This was cutting edge in the 1920s & 1930s, and indeed
         | some of the oldest signaling in the system is from that era
         | (though thankfully, the amount is decreasing).
         | 
         | It is however maddening to decide in 1995, given other existing
         | speed control solutions at the time (coded track circuits,
         | CBTC, axle counters) to expand the use of these timers. But as
         | the saying goes if you have a hammer, everything is a nail.
         | 
         | Even more maddening is how slow the subway's transition to CBTC
         | has been. NYCT was an early leader, with the Canarsie line
         | being one of the first brown-field re-signaling jobs (not to
         | mention a 24/7 railway), and then the program just seemed to
         | languish under management that didn't see CBTC's value or the
         | need for modernization (could write pages on this). Thankfully
         | the new cadre of people at 2 Broadway has put the CBTC program
         | into high gear, with 4 (5?) lines under various stages
         | resignaling at the movement.
         | 
         | As a bonus tidbit: the wheel slip issue mentioned above is
         | fixed in CBTC operations with the inclusion of a free axle,
         | equipped with no motor or breaks, thus never experiencing a
         | lack of adhesion. Passive RFID balise's placed at known
         | intervals (i.e. loaded into the train) allow the train to then
         | audit (while in operation) how far its estimated position and
         | speed have deviated from where it truly is. Some CBTC systems
         | also have car-brone backups based on accelerometers or rail-
         | facing doppler radars.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications-
         | based_train_con...
        
         | psychphysic wrote:
         | I believe it is actually a hard problem but there is a good
         | solution being explored on the UK.
         | 
         | Read the rails like a card magstrip.
         | 
         | Trains first traverse the track scanning the entire length in
         | detail with careful speed and location tracking.
         | 
         | Then trains can subsequently pattern match to the rail for
         | location and speed.
         | 
         | The rails can also be coded with info like patterns although
         | that's not generally needed. Trains get loaded with info about
         | the track they'll be on and then can monitor progress
         | themselves.
        
         | rightbyte wrote:
         | > For example you can put a sensor on the electrical motor that
         | will accurately measure motor position.
         | 
         | That is a spring mass system. Oscillations at the motor might
         | or might not move the wheels. You want to measure at the
         | wheels.
         | 
         | Also the play in the driveline messes up speed measurements.
        
         | brutusborn wrote:
         | My guesses: - Lack of incentives for executives to improve
         | performance -Lack of people with good ideas to plan
         | improvements -Lack of skills to execute an improvement plan
         | (due to relatively low salaries) -Pointless regulation
         | -Deferred maintenance to 'save money'
        
           | ehnto wrote:
           | Indeed, I can see this being a bureaucractic challenge more
           | than a technical one.
           | 
           | There are quite clear paths forward and no shortage of prior
           | art for the engineering portion, unless there is something we
           | aren't privvy to it must be lack of incentives and
           | bureaucracy.
        
             | rocqua wrote:
             | My sense is that "we need 99.9% uptime so solutions that
             | require maintenance downtime are not acceptable" even
             | though the lack of solutions is a bigger drag on uptime.
             | But if your mandate is uptime, voluntary downtime is not at
             | all an easy choice. You get blamed for voluntary downtime
             | whilst accidental downtime is not directly going to be
             | blamed on anyone.
        
         | jimmyswimmy wrote:
         | While i agree that it is surprising that MTA continues to use
         | archaic technology, I don't the solution is nearly as simple as
         | you pose it. Hardware engineering is hard, and in-service
         | engineering of complex systems desiring near 100% uptime is
         | challenging.
         | 
         | The sensors must not simply survive a dirty, dusty environment,
         | they must work perfectly with no glitches and for long periods
         | between maintenance. And if they do swap out for a different
         | sensor system and it fails, there's no hardware equivalent of
         | git reset --hard (the favored way for this hardware designer to
         | undo my soft mistakes). You have to take a train out of
         | service, or put people in the tracks during a maintenance
         | window.
         | 
         | What they have there already obviously also requires
         | maintenance, but its performance limitations and failure modes
         | are well understood. It takes time to cycle new things in, and
         | old out.
         | 
         | Nonetheless I was also fairly shocked that their system is
         | quite as archaic as it is. I assume it's a budget limitation
         | driving slow progress.
        
           | hadlock wrote:
           | My 1955 Citroen (designed in 1933) has the original
           | speedometer and speed sender cable. It's accurate (GPS
           | tracked) to within 2-3km/h. This is with nearly 70k miles on
           | the clock. This is the same mechanism Citroen used in their
           | 2CV from 1946 until 1992. Most Model A Fords from 1929 have
           | their original speedometer (which works fine, might need
           | greasing every few decades though). With tens of thousands of
           | miles on them.
           | 
           | We are way, WAY beyond "hardware engineering is hard", this
           | is "this was a solved problem a century ago, using archaic
           | means". I am happy to hand-wave away all sorts of problems
           | but speedometers were 100% a solved problem many many years
           | ago and no allowances or leeway should be given for this
           | specific problem. Zero.
        
             | pantalaimon wrote:
             | GPS doesn't work underground though.
             | 
             | But the problem described in the article seems rather
             | unique to NYC and one has to ask how other subway systems
             | manage just fine without artificial slowdowns.
        
               | mvnuweucxqokii wrote:
               | I'm pretty sure the person you're replying to was saying
               | that the original speedometer mechanism in their 1955 car
               | is accurate to within 2-3 km/h of the speed reported by
               | GPS, and thus suggesting that this pre-GPS mechanism
               | ought suffice for the subway / be better than whatever
               | they currently use.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | You can simulate the GPS if you wanted to, drop cables
               | down to pipe through the real signal, or simply do very
               | basic positioning with custom radios underground.
               | 
               | OP is correct. We have significantly better techniques.
        
             | termy wrote:
             | Go fix it then :p
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | For what it's worth, a metro train does around 100,000
             | miles _per year_.
        
               | vladvasiliu wrote:
               | That's fair. And also, the environment is probably
               | different, as in more dust in the tunnels, etc.
               | 
               | But to stick with French technology, the Paris metro, for
               | all its issues, does have working speed gauges. Some
               | lines still use rolling stock from the 60s and 70s.
        
               | phist_mcgee wrote:
               | And every single one of them invariably is when i'm not
               | onboard.
        
               | Gordonjcp wrote:
               | So, considerably less than the average articulated lorry,
               | or indeed Skoda Octavia?
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | No, very much around the average for an articulated
               | lorry.
               | 
               | But metro trains stop and start every 2-5 minutes all
               | day, last 40+ years, but also travel on a very smooth
               | "road".
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | So do most normal trains, and they all have speed gauges
               | that work fine, rain snow or dust. Clearly the technology
               | exists.
        
               | akgerber wrote:
               | NYCT was, until this year, operating R32 trainsets still
               | limping along from the 1960s that were repeatedly life-
               | extended as newer (1970s) train types experienced
               | structural failures & delivery of their planned
               | replacement trains was repeatedly delayed. It's obviously
               | possible to maintain old trains, but generally expensive
               | & challenging, especially when they're still doing
               | 100,000 miles a year, and things clearly slipped.
               | 
               | Especially because the trains were operating well past
               | their planned lifespan because their replacements were
               | ordered but not delivered, so the major overhaul that
               | would that would normally be done to life-extend a train
               | kept running for decades didn't happen.
        
           | squeaky-clean wrote:
           | They're slowly switching each line to a CBCT based signaling,
           | the lines that do have it are vastly improved. Aside from all
           | the budget and construction corruption issues of the MTA,
           | it's difficult to do because the NYC subway is expected to
           | run 24/7. And so upgrades need to be scheduled around limited
           | times during which lines can be shut down, usually just a few
           | hours overnight. And also keep the old system running while
           | upgrades happen which tend to take years for a full line
           | upgrade.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications-
           | based_train_c...
        
           | ajsnigrutin wrote:
           | So.. what tech do normal, above ground trains use?
        
           | jazzyjackson wrote:
           | > I assume it's a budget limitation driving slow progress.
           | 
           | The budget is enormous, it's just being embezzled from top to
           | bottom.
        
           | interstice wrote:
           | Is there a term for using multiple redundancy and statistics
           | to solve issues, for example using 5x 99% reliable sensors
           | rather than a single 99.99% sensor that costs 100x more?
        
             | LikesPwsh wrote:
             | "redundant systems"
        
             | bdavis__ wrote:
             | engineering
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | Don't forget WET environment. Due to the closeness to the
           | surface and the era most of the tunneling was done, there's
           | not just high humidity but actual water in the tunnels and
           | stations quite often.
        
           | o10449366 wrote:
           | Unfortunately, it's a pretty tired HN comment to posit
           | something as being more simple than it actually is.
           | 
           | Even during the pandemic there were widespread complaints
           | about the signal work on the L line that has now transformed
           | it from one of the worst lines to one of the best. There's no
           | such thing as "simple work" on a system that millions of
           | people depend on for consistent uptime.
        
             | atoav wrote:
             | If you count in the financial constrait that service is
             | working under, sure. But meassuring the speed/position of a
             | rail vehicle on a piece of track reliably is _not_ an
             | unsolvable feat of hardware engineering. It is done
             | elsewhere and it is done elsewhere where similar
             | constraints for uptime exist.
             | 
             | Theoretically by that logic we could argue that trains are
             | hard because making the motors for them is non-trivial. It
             | is non-trivial, and depending on your standards it might be
             | even hard. But it is essentially a solved problem. You want
             | a motor? You get one from the big companies, let them
             | design one or use one from an existing similar train. Same
             | thing goes for measuring speed. You want it? Create a team
             | researching which ones to get.
             | 
             | Like in many places NY infrastructure has it's best days
             | long behind itself and it is a wonder it still works. That
             | infrastructure is in dire need of modernization and it has
             | been for a while. The reason this is not done is _not_
             | because it is hard or impossible to do. It is just
             | expensive.
        
               | digbybk wrote:
               | You're correct, it's not unsolvable, which is why it is
               | being solved. It's just a slow process, for the reasons
               | mentioned.
        
             | draw_down wrote:
             | [dead]
        
         | scotty79 wrote:
         | I just came up with silly calibration strategy for speedometer.
         | When the train is on a curve of known radious you can get true
         | speed from measured lateral acceleration.
        
       | jawadch93 wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | Tokkemon wrote:
       | A part of this story is how during Andy Byford's tenure, one of
       | the biggest thrusts to his work was to fix this problem. He
       | aggressively started studying and revising the timers to speed
       | trains up, and it seemed to have worked. Of course, he was pushed
       | out by Cuomo and then the pandemic happened so much of those
       | gains seem to be short-lived.
        
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