[HN Gopher] Peter Norvig critically reviews AlphaCode's code qua...
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       Peter Norvig critically reviews AlphaCode's code quality
        
       Author : wrycoder
       Score  : 551 points
       Date   : 2022-12-16 20:38 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (github.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (github.com)
        
       | bombcar wrote:
       | _The marvel is not that the bear dances well, but that the bear
       | dances at all._
       | 
       | The surprising thing is that it can make code that works -
       | however, given that code can be _tested_ in ways that  "art" and
       | "text" cannot (yet), perhaps it's not that strange.
        
       | dekhn wrote:
       | I read this as a very well written feature request to the
       | AlphaCode engineers (or anybody working on this problem).
       | 
       | I really like Peter's writing style. It's fairly clear, and
       | understating, while also making it quite clear there are areas
       | for improvement in reach. For those who haven't read it, Peter
       | also wrote this gem: https://norvig.com/chomsky.html which is an
       | earlier comment about natural language processing, and
       | https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.c...
       | which is a play on Wigner's "Unreasonable Effectiveness of
       | Mathematics in the Natural Sciences".
        
       | khiqxj wrote:
       | > single letter variables
       | 
       | i hate when people put descriptive names on variables that dont
       | need it. when im tired i end up reading the name over and over as
       | if it has meaning (it doesnt), and subconsciously ponder the
       | meaning for up to a minute before snapping out of it.
       | 
       | they actually dont even serve a purpose. its because we are
       | reading code in text form that they are needed. conceptually,
       | most variables are just something flowing out of one function to
       | the next which would be easily repesented by lines in a diagram
       | or many other ways that dont use names. you're meant to only give
       | names to the rare case where it would truly make the code more
       | understandable. this shit doesnt: thingManagerProxyGenerator =
       | createThingManagerProxyGenerator()
        
         | krzat wrote:
         | This could be a cool task for AI: hover on variable and have
         | it's role at a higher level than just finding all references.
        
         | preommr wrote:
         | I usually don't like commenting on people's choices for
         | variable names since they're usually scoped and less important
         | than the interface. However, I'll give my two cents because I
         | remember stuff like this being confusing when I was younger.
         | 
         | There's definitely a balance to be struck - one letter variable
         | names are horrible outside of single lines (e.g. a one-line
         | anonymous function), extremely long names are better, but still
         | bad. I say better because it's higher in comprehensibility -
         | which is more important - if not very readable. While it's been
         | well documented that shorter information is easier to remember,
         | it's important to remember that it's usually limited to brevity
         | that still provides context. Very short names e.g. (pg for
         | proxy generator) are bad because minds require an additional
         | step to "unravel" the meaning.
         | 
         | IMO it's usually best to limit to variable names to one or two
         | words. Something like 'proxyGenerator', for the given example.
         | Or even 'generator' if the parent block is extremely small
         | (e.g. 5 lines). Most readers perform word chunking such that
         | something like 'proxyGenerator' reads as two units without the
         | indirection that an abbreviation or unrelated symbol would
         | require.
        
         | nvrmnd wrote:
         | This is also a very interesting concept/question when it comes
         | to AI writing software for practical applications.
         | 
         | Would a large language model benefit from descriptive variable
         | names when it comes to code understanding, or would this just
         | be for human benefit? My first thought was that a computer
         | (e.g. compiler) does not care what the token is named. But a
         | large language model may actually benefit from it, certainly
         | chatGPT is sensitive to it.
         | 
         | But then, doesn't it mean that it could be fooled by misleading
         | variable names (as a human would), something we would criticize
         | any system for. "Alpha*** is easily fooled by changing variable
         | names, making it completely unusable for blah blah".
        
       | xwdv wrote:
       | In its best form, I think AI coders in our career's lifetime will
       | never be anything more than a way to copy and paste code from
       | StackOverflow with less steps. If you don't mind searching for
       | solutions and adapting them yourself, then you can already be
       | living in the future, today!
        
       | MoSattler wrote:
       | I wasn't aware AI can already take plain English text and create
       | functioning software.
       | 
       | I guess it's time to look for another profession.
        
         | ResearchCode wrote:
         | What other profession? When and if it can actually write code,
         | making a ppt or sitting in a pointless meeting is a long solved
         | problem.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | weatherlite wrote:
           | All the low status professions we've been told are not that
           | good - child care, elderly care, handy work etc ...
           | 
           | Yeah we're pretty much toast :)
        
       | WheelsAtLarge wrote:
       | Code quality will be an issue since these apps are using existing
       | code as the model. They are the very definition of trash in,
       | trash out.
        
       | tuke wrote:
       | No comment along the lines of: "ew, Python."
        
       | tareqak wrote:
       | When I saw the test suite that Peter Norvig created for the
       | program, I immediately thought to myself "what if there was a LLM
       | program that knew how to generate test cases for arbitrary
       | functions?"
       | 
       | I think a tool like that even in an early incomplete and
       | imperfect form could help out a lot of people. The first version
       | could take all available test cases as training data. The second
       | one could instead have a curated list of test cases that pass
       | some bar.
       | 
       | Update: I thought of a second idea also based on Peter Norvig's
       | observation: what about an LLM program that adds documentation /
       | comments to the code without changing the code itself? I know
       | that it is a lot easier for me to proofread writing that I have
       | not seen before, so it would help me. Maybe a version would
       | simply allow for selecting which blocks of code need commenting
       | based on lines selected in an IDE?
        
         | Buttons840 wrote:
         | How about the other way. I define a few test cases and the AI
         | writes code for a generalized solution. Not just code that
         | regurgitates the test cases, but that generalizes well to
         | unseen cases. You'll notice this is simply the machine learning
         | problem restated.
         | 
         | The next step could be to have the AI write code that describes
         | its own reasoning, balancing length of code and precision.
        
           | avmich wrote:
           | > How about the other way. I define a few test cases and the
           | AI writes code for a generalized solution. Not just code that
           | regurgitates the test cases, but that generalizes well to
           | unseen cases. You'll notice this is simply the machine
           | learning problem restated.
           | 
           | I think Barliman does something similar
           | (http://minikanren.org/)
        
           | spawarotti wrote:
           | > I define a few test cases and the AI writes code for a
           | generalized solution
           | 
           | How about the AI never writing any code, just training "mini
           | AI" / network that implements the test cases, of course in a
           | generalized way, the way our current AI systems work. We
           | could continue adding test cases for corner cases until the
           | "mini AI" is so good that we no longer can come up with a
           | test case that trips it over.
           | 
           | In such future, the skill of being comprehensive tester would
           | be everything, and the only code written by humans would be
           | the test cases.
        
         | kubb wrote:
         | That's potentially more helpful than writing the code itself.
         | Writing unit tests can take most of the development time.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | And literally throwing random half junk unit tests at your
           | code will better test it than you writing unit tests that are
           | blind to the problems it might have because you wrote both
           | and both bits of code have the same blind spots.
           | 
           | We should probably be developing systems that fuzz all code
           | by default.
        
             | SlickNixon wrote:
             | In the future, code beyond all human comprehension will be
             | rated for reliability by the number of layers of garbage
             | unit tests it's buried under. Tests for the code, then
             | tests for the tests, then tests for those te-...
        
             | danuker wrote:
             | I warmly recommend QuickCheck-inspired libraries.
        
       | cratermoon wrote:
       | Oh yes, AlphaCode could definitely replace some of the clowns
       | I've worked with.
        
       | happyopossum wrote:
       | > I find it problematic that AlphaCode dredges up relevant code
       | fragments from its training data, without fully understanding the
       | reasoning for the fragments.
       | 
       | As a non-programmer who has to 'code' occasionally, this is
       | literally what I do, but it takes me hours or days to hammer out
       | a few hundred lines of crap python. Using a generative model or
       | llm that can write equally crappy scripts in seconds feels like a
       | HUUUGE win for my use cases.
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | A lazy ineffective person is preferable over a prodigious
         | idiot.
        
           | lioeters wrote:
           | Reminds me of the quote:
           | 
           | > There are four types of officer: the clever and lazy, the
           | clever and industrious, the stupid and lazy, and the stupid
           | and industrious.
           | 
           | > The clever and lazy you make Chief of Staff, because he
           | will not try to do everybody else's work, and will always
           | have time to think.
           | 
           | > The clever and industrious you make his deputy.
           | 
           | > The stupid and lazy you put into a line battalion, and kick
           | him into doing a job of work.
           | 
           | > The stupid and industrious you must get rid of at once,
           | because he is a national danger.
        
           | happyopossum wrote:
           | Not sure which one you're calling me
           | 
           | The reality is that there's a huge gap of scripting needed in
           | todays world that sits between "print 'hello world'" and
           | something worth paying a professional SWE to write.
           | 
           | You folks don't always see this from inside your bubble, but
           | there is a world of automation and computing problems that
           | are solved by people who _can_ make it work, and not by
           | people _paid_ to make it work well.
        
       | gfd wrote:
       | Isn't `a=a[2:]` going to copy and make that linear time too? I'm
       | surprised he caught the `b.pop(0)` bug but then suggested doing
       | that afterwards.
       | 
       | Also he should submit to codeforces to get a comparable running
       | time. For example here is a random person who submitted
       | AlphaCode's version and it takes 1091 ms
       | https://codeforces.com/contest/1553/submission/144971343
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | > Isn't `a=a[2:]` going to copy and make that linear time too?
         | 
         | Afaik it's a memcpy of pointers.
        
         | SekstiNi wrote:
         | That would indeed be linear time, but he doesn't make that
         | suggestion as far as I can see.
        
           | gfd wrote:
           | It's in the red inked code review image and it's in his
           | rewrite as "source = source[:-2]"
        
       | lisper wrote:
       | Is it just me, or is that problem description completely
       | incoherent?
        
         | drexlspivey wrote:
         | Problem: You open a terminal and type the string 'ababa' but
         | you are free to replace any button presses with backspace. Is
         | there a combination where the terminal reads `ba` at the end?
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | Thanks, your version makes a lot more sense.
        
           | hoten wrote:
           | If the AI could do this simplification just as you did, I'd
           | find that far more exciting!
        
         | krackers wrote:
         | It took me way too long to understand it as well. And the fact
         | that you press backspace _instead_ of a character, instead of
         | allowing backspace to be pressed at any time (which would turn
         | it into checking if B is a subsequence of A I believe).
        
         | zug_zug wrote:
         | Good god I'm not alone. For me it's fascinating that an AI can
         | make sense of that garble of words. I spent 4 minutes trying to
         | read it and gave up.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | aidenn0 wrote:
       | The Minerva geometry answer looks like something one of my kids
       | would have written: guess the answer then write a bunch of mathy-
       | sounding gobbledygook as the "reasoning."
       | 
       | Also, that answer would have gotten 4/5 points at the local high-
       | school.
        
       | fergal_reid wrote:
       | Huge respect for Norvig, but I think this is a shallow analysis.
       | 
       | For example, I just took Norvig's 'backspacer alpha' function and
       | asked ChatGPT about it. It gave me an ok English language
       | description. It names the variables more descriptively on
       | command.
       | 
       | I'm sure it'll hallucinate and make errors, but I think we're all
       | still learning about how to get the capabilities we want out of
       | these models. I wouldn't rush to judgement about what they can
       | and can't do based on what they did; shallow analysis can mislead
       | both optimistically and pessimistically at the moment!
        
         | neontomo wrote:
         | You are talking about a completely different language model
         | though, so your argument doesn't really hold. The point he
         | makes is that AlphaCode does not generate meaningful
         | explanations along with its code (and that's it's perhaps
         | necessary to build trust in a system), not that there aren't
         | any language models that can do it. AlphaCode !== ChatGPT. I
         | encourage you to write a better analysis!
        
           | fergal_reid wrote:
           | Well, the stall he sets out is about 'generative models'
           | generally:
           | 
           | "In the future, what role will these generative models play
           | in assisting a programmer or mathematician?"
           | 
           | I think the fact that we've other generative models that eg.
           | can write descriptive variable names is a fair rebuttal to
           | his criticism of alphacodes poor variable names.
           | 
           | Deepmind fine tuned it on competition code, not on well
           | documented production code, so I think it's shallow to get
           | hung up on it's lack of good variable names (for example).
        
       | gok wrote:
       | _They are vulnerable to reproducing poor quality training data_
       | 
       |  _They are good locally, but can have trouble keeping the focus
       | all the way through a problem_
       | 
       |  _They can hallucinate incorrect statements_
       | 
       |  _does not generate documentation or tests that would build trust
       | in the code_
       | 
       | These observations are about human programmers, right?
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | You may be saying it tongue in cheek, but I think you have a
         | point. After interviewing hundreds of applicants for developer
         | positions, I'm sure the AlphaCode performance exhibited here is
         | similar to at least the 50th percentile.
         | 
         | If you're working in a large organisation where 50 % of
         | developers perform roughly on par with AlphaCode, you'll see it
         | as a potentially useful companion. If you're Peter Norvig, or
         | working in a small organisation trying to hire the top 20 %,
         | you'll just laugh at AlphaCode.
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | Do you often hallucinate on the job?
        
           | Gigablah wrote:
           | Tends to happen when writing self-assessments.
        
             | bamboozled wrote:
             | ha
        
       | pfedak wrote:
       | One aspect of the solution which I haven't seen touched on is
       | that this is a problem for which a straightforward greedy
       | approach works. I know when I do competitive programming, "will
       | greedy work?" is usually the first question; greedy strategies
       | are natural (here there's the insight of going backwards, true),
       | and often it's faster to just implement it and submit than
       | actually prove it to myself.
       | 
       | The output doesn't give me much confidence that, if we tweaked
       | the problem slightly to make the greedy approach not work (e.g.
       | certain characters/positions can't be replaced with backspace),
       | we'd still get a working solution out. We might get something
       | that looked extremely similar to this, but didn't actually solve
       | the problem.
       | 
       | As I said, this isn't too different from what I'd consider human
       | performance on these problems, but it makes being able to trust
       | the output (and the model's confidence in the output) even more
       | important.
        
       | drpixie wrote:
       | I see only a single example discussed. It's interesting but begs
       | the question - _if I give it 1000 problems, how many of its
       | results are correct programs?_
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | That question is mainly interesting in comparison to the
         | baseline, which ought to be what the same number is for new
         | hires at your organisation!
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | Incredibly useful to read code reviews. I rather doubt I will
       | ever get to see another code review by Norvig. Can anyone point
       | us to to others?
        
       | chubot wrote:
       | Somewhat dumb question: I wonder what tool he used for the red
       | font code annotations and arrows? What tool would you use, like
       | Photoshop or something? And just screenshot the code from some
       | editor or I guess Jupyter?
        
         | circuit wrote:
         | Most likely Preview.app's built-in annotation tools
        
           | chubot wrote:
           | Thanks, that's probably it! (I need to do stuff like this,
           | but I don't use a Mac regularly, and that would help)
        
       | neilv wrote:
       | > They need to be trained to provide trust. The AlphaCode model
       | generates code, but does not generate documentation or tests that
       | would build trust in the code.
       | 
       | I don't understand how this would build trust.
       | 
       | If they generate test cases, you have to validate the test cases.
       | 
       | If they generate documentation, you have to validate the
       | documentation.
       | 
       | For a one-shot drop of code from an unknown party, test cases and
       | docs have been signals that the writer know that's a thing, and
       | they at least put effort into typing it. So maybe we assume more
       | likely that they also used good practices with the code.
       | 
       | But that's signalling to build trust, and adding those to build
       | trust without addressing the reasons we _shouldn 't_ have trust
       | in the code (as this article points out) seems like it would be
       | building _misplaced_ trust.
       | 
       | (Though there is some benefit to doc for validation, due to the
       | idea behind the old saying "if your code and documentation
       | disagree, then both are probably wrong".)
        
         | low_tech_love wrote:
         | I think it's indeed a bit weird to "require" the AI to generate
         | test cases but not impossible, actually it might be even
         | desirable. The thing is that you don't need to necessarily
         | validate the test cases themselves, as long as the method to
         | generate them is well known and trustworthy. A good suite of
         | test cases (manually or automatically generated) will never
         | guarantee anything, but it is certainly very useful, and I
         | believe an AI could generate much more and better test cases
         | than we do, as long as it is trained correctly.
         | 
         | For example, you can have reinforcement learning with rewards
         | for finding test cases that fail, and it could even be an
         | adversary to the other AI that is generating the code
         | itself...?
        
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       | DonHopkins wrote:
       | I love his work and writing and respect him, and I only suggest
       | this in the fondest possible way, but did anybody else ever
       | notice that Silicon Valley's Professor Davis Bannercheck kind of
       | looks like Peter Norvig? ;)
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KaWPYOLuT8
        
       | pifm_guy wrote:
       | I'm gonna guess that a few people like Peter taking alphacodes
       | output and editing it and using those edits as part of some fine-
       | tuning step would quickly resolve many of these issues.
        
       | sdwr wrote:
       | Jesus Christ, that's some code review! Felt the meaty heft of
       | experience just glancing at the footnotes at the bottom.
        
       | dinvlad wrote:
       | Funnily enough, I entered a hard Leetcode problem into ChatGPT
       | the other day, and it was able to "solve" it!
        
         | flatline wrote:
         | I am hoping this leads the industry to move away from its
         | hyperfocus on solving algorithms for tech interviews. Sure they
         | are important but are only one aspect of most jobs. The
         | problems themselves are formulaic and not particularly
         | indicative of any real acumen.
        
       | low_tech_love wrote:
       | The most scary thing for me about this whole thing is how it
       | feels like programming as we know it is becoming obsolete. Yeah,
       | there is a list c that's never used, and that bothers me, but the
       | real question is: should anyone care? When looked at from the
       | perspective of the trade-off, i.e. code generation from
       | unstructured natural language input, the answer is
       | (unfortunately) no----and that is of course ignoring the fact
       | that such improvements are incremental and will come very soon
       | anyway. Picking on this is like what a programmer from the 60's
       | would say if they looked at the binary of the CPython
       | interpreter, or something like that. Yeah you could probably do
       | better, but it would take maybe 100x longer (or more), and the
       | performance impact in the executable would be negligible. So yeah
       | Peter we feel you, this is scary...
        
         | lukeplato wrote:
         | Seems similar to non-coding "Junk" genomic DNA [0]. Some
         | evolutionary process can improve and reduce programs but most
         | cruft is inconsequential and may even be preferable to having
         | perfectly reduced/succinct programs.
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-coding_DNA
        
       | RodgerTheGreat wrote:
       | I think the notes at the end bury the lede; in particular:
       | 
       | > "I save the most time by just observing that a problem is an
       | adaptation of a common problem. For a problem like 2016 day 10,
       | it's just topological sort." This suggests that the contest
       | problems have a bias towards retrieving an existing solution (and
       | adapting it) rather than synthesizing a new solution.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | The fact is, the vast majority of programming IS just dredging
         | up a best solution and modifying it to meet your specifics.
         | Some of the best and still most current algorithms are from
         | like the 60s.
         | 
         | That doesn't make neural networks "smart", and instead says
         | more about our profession and how terrible we in general are at
         | it.
        
           | p-e-w wrote:
           | > and instead says more about our profession and how terrible
           | we in general are at it.
           | 
           | I'm well aware that belittling one's own industry is part of
           | contemporary software engineering culture, but for the love
           | of all that is holy, I've never understood it.
           | 
           | A few decades ago, "software engineering" didn't exist.
           | Today, it's a hair's breadth from creating an artificial
           | being. That's closer to magic and alchemy than to building
           | rockets and bridges. It just blows my mind that humans have
           | achieved this, and it bores and saddens me to be surrounded
           | by engineers who keep regurgitating "everything sucks" memes.
        
             | r3trohack3r wrote:
             | I don't think it's just programming p-e-w, I see this
             | mentality everywhere.
             | 
             | Our generation had inherited a world our ancestors could
             | only dream of. Yet it seems folks spend more time comparing
             | us to a fictitious utopic state and picking apart how we
             | don't measure up than they do appreciating how far we've
             | come from our real past.
             | 
             | What humans have done in a few hundred years is amazing. We
             | are building a more inclusive, equitable, and just world.
             | We are saving this planet from a guaranteed complete
             | extinction event, self-identifying when our species is
             | breaking natural cycles in our ecosystems, and going to war
             | against death (banking serious wins).
             | 
             | Compared to the species in second place (whatever you pick)
             | humans are absolutely killing it. I'm proud to be a member
             | of our species and I'm excited about the world we our
             | gifting to the next generation.
        
               | p-e-w wrote:
               | > I see this mentality everywhere.
               | 
               | Really? People absolutely worship hardware engineers who
               | work on projects like the LHC, the ISS, or the JWST. Or
               | even on much more mundane things: "Wow, you design
               | bridges? Such important work!" And if you're not ready to
               | accept that medical researchers are second in status only
               | to God Himself, then God Himself won't be able to help
               | you.
               | 
               | But _software engineering?_ You mean those geeks who
               | develop better ad targeting systems? What did they ever
               | do (other than connect five billion people and
               | revolutionize how every industry on the planet
               | functions)?
               | 
               | The really sad thing is that this attitude is shared by
               | many software engineers themselves. I couldn't care less
               | about what the "man on the street" thinks about a
               | profession that he can't begin to comprehend. But
               | watching this self-disdain coming from my own colleagues
               | really hurts me.
        
             | urthor wrote:
             | A very good point.
             | 
             | People trivialize the progress in this progression, because
             | it's normalized. And yet, the incredible progress in the
             | last 5-10 years is absolutely stunning.
             | 
             | Compared to the other "recognized professions," the
             | progress in how software is developed is beyond stunning.
             | The actual practice of law/medicine/etcetera is remarkably
             | static.
             | 
             | Regardless, to most, "what we have now is never enough."
        
               | p-e-w wrote:
               | It goes far beyond trivializing. People actively
               | downplay, belittle, and ridicule the accomplishments of
               | software engineering. And on a thread discussing an
               | achievement so utterly incredible that few would have
               | thought it possible 10 years ago.
               | 
               | Imagine people watching the James Webb Space Telescope
               | being launched, and saying "modern aerospace engineers
               | are terrible". That's what is happening here.
               | 
               | Personally, I find it distasteful and demeaning. It's one
               | of several reasons why I cannot stomach the culture
               | associated with software engineering anymore. The fact
               | that this is happening so frequently on HN speaks
               | volumes. I doubt that equivalent statements, made about
               | spaceflight or medicine, would be tolerated in this
               | forum.
        
             | zarzavat wrote:
             | Many programmers seem to have pathological humility. Being
             | humble is good, it makes you aware of your faults and areas
             | of improvement. Yet that's only half of it. We also have to
             | be aware of our successes so that we know what we _should_
             | be doing.
             | 
             | Programmers often look up to civil engineers. They imagine
             | that if we built software like we built bridges, it would
             | be better.
             | 
             | Civil engineering uses the "waterfall" method. You state
             | your requirements, design the thing, build it, and test it.
             | But we have tried this for software and it just doesn't
             | work. We can never anticipate all the faults or design
             | flaws in advance. So we switched to iterative development
             | with very short cycle times. You can't do iterative
             | development on a bridge, so we've already diverged.
             | 
             | Software is fundamentally different to anything that has
             | ever existed. Computers are now writing code, something
             | they couldn't do two years ago. There has been a steady
             | _increase_ in volatility over the previous decades.
             | Attempting to impose rules and structure during a period of
             | volatility is futile. The 2nd Cambrian is starting, enjoy
             | the ride.
        
               | rep_lodsb wrote:
               | Yes, software is fundamentally different compared to
               | building physical stuff. It's like having the ability to
               | arrange individual atoms into any shape, and replicate
               | that structure in whatever quantity desired.
               | 
               | And then completely filling the landscape with bridges
               | constructed out of Lego bricks. They say it's good
               | enough, sure we could theoretically do something better,
               | but nobody has the time for that. And anyway, if bridges
               | lasted forever or we needed less of them, there would no
               | longer be such a demand for engineers!
        
               | p-e-w wrote:
               | It's fascinating and revolting at the same time how the
               | essence of your comment is once again the "everything
               | sucks" garbage.
               | 
               | There are billions of lines of top-quality code in
               | existence, and millions of lines that should be counted
               | among humanity's great works of art, but no, it's all
               | "Lego bricks".
               | 
               | Most artists don't produce anything remotely like
               | Michelangelo or Picasso, yet Michelangelo and Picasso are
               | what people think of when they hear the word "art". No
               | one says "art is so terrible, just stick figure drawings
               | everywhere".
               | 
               | The perception of software engineering reflected in your
               | comment is not grounded in reality but in culture. An
               | ultimately destructive culture of negativity and self-
               | deprecation. And I'm so fucking tired of it that I wish I
               | had chosen a different profession.
        
               | p-e-w wrote:
               | Humility is one thing. Virtue-signaling whining of the
               | type "oh we are so terrible and everything we build is
               | broken" is a very different thing.
               | 
               | Do the experiment: Take any such statement (which you can
               | find dozens of on HN every single day), then modify it
               | for another science or engineering profession and see if
               | you end up with something that sounds even remotely
               | appropriate.
               | 
               | "Oh, us aerospace engineers are so terrible! The JWST is
               | 15 years late and 15 times over budget, and even after
               | all that time and money we only managed to deliver a
               | piece of junk that almost got knocked out by a tiny
               | fragment of space shrapnel."
               | 
               | Do you really find it acceptable when people speak in
               | this manner of what you do? I cannot think of any other
               | profession that would tolerate this, much less culturally
               | encourage it.
        
             | davidcbc wrote:
             | > Today, it's a hair's breadth from creating an artificial
             | being.
             | 
             | In the same way my dog is a hairs breadth from driving a
             | car
        
               | dan_mctree wrote:
               | In just these decades, our software has already surpassed
               | the ability of dogs to drive cars. And that despite the
               | fact that dogs are a whole lot closer to humans than
               | machines are to humans
        
       | gus_massa wrote:
       | About the single letter name for variables, I guess it's bias
       | because they are using as the second part of the training set the
       | code from a few online programing competitions.
       | 
       | Many of them have the time to write the program as a tiebreaker,
       | so using short names is an advantage.
       | 
       | Also, for short throwaway programs, using the single letter names
       | avoids many silly tipos, like
       | print(important_list_1, important_list_1, important_list_3)
       | 
       | instead of                  print(important_list_1,
       | important_list_2, important_list_3)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | Octokat wrote:
       | His repo is a gold mine
        
       | trynewideas wrote:
       | This is a great review but it still misses what seems like the
       | point to me: these models don't do any actual reasoning. They're
       | doing the same thing that DALL-E _etc._ does with images: using a
       | superhuman store of potential outcomes to mimic an outcome that
       | the person entering the prompt would then click a thumbs-up icon
       | on in a training model.
       | 
       | Asking why the model doesn't explain how the code it generated
       | works is like asking a child who just said their first curse word
       | what it means. The model and child alike don't know or care, they
       | just know how people react to it.
        
         | api wrote:
         | I think of them as a new type of database with remarkable query
         | and data manipulation capabilities. They can't produce things
         | that go fundamentally outside their training data set.
        
         | jujugoboom wrote:
         | Stochastic Parrot is the term you're looking for
         | https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3442188.3445922
        
           | fumeux_fume wrote:
           | "Beating a dead horse" was the one I was thinking of
        
         | fossuser wrote:
         | What is this then:
         | https://twitter.com/jbrukh/status/1603868836729610250?s=46&t...
         | 
         | That looks a lot like reasoning to me. At some point these
         | disputing definitions arguments don't matter. Some people will
         | endlessly debate whether other people are conscious or
         | "zombies" but it's not particularly useful.
         | 
         | This isn't yet AGI, but the progress we're seeing doesn't look
         | like failure to me. It looks like what I'd predict to see
         | before AGI exists.
        
           | nebukhadnezzar wrote:
           | These arguments do matter since the system often confidently
           | <<reasons>> incorrectly, and people still incorrectly believe
           | that the system actually deduces semantic meaning behind it's
           | output. The system has no grounding in truth whatsoever. It's
           | impressive nonetheless, but it's still a large lookup table
           | for pattern matching. I'm convinced bruteforcing these LLMs
           | won't give us anything near AGI. We're going to need to start
           | funding more alternatives too, which often are shadowed by
           | these large bruteforce models.
        
             | fossuser wrote:
             | Maybe we also operate as a large lookup table for pattern
             | matching (with some initial weights set by our evolutionary
             | history). We have no grounding in truth either (and often
             | confidently "reason" incorrectly).
             | 
             | I'm not so sure there's a major missing piece here beyond
             | some sort of continually running "default mode network".
        
             | danShumway wrote:
             | > These arguments do matter since the system often
             | confidently <<reasons>> incorrectly, and people still
             | incorrectly believe that the system actually deduces
             | semantic meaning behind it's output.
             | 
             | This is the point that gets missed in these conversations
             | about AGI.
             | 
             | I have had programmers who should absolutely know better
             | argue to me that correlation/causation distinctions don't
             | matter in AI because as long as you're not over-fitting to
             | the data, it's safe to draw conclusions based on the
             | correlation alone -- the AI wouldn't point out the
             | correlation if it wasn't a safe correlation to rely on (and
             | it'll just correct itself with new data if that ever
             | changes).
             | 
             | A lot of people even in technical fields have _way_ too
             | much trust in these systems and way too much magical
             | thinking about how they work. I don 't blame researchers
             | for that, but the argument "how do you know you're not a
             | lookup table" is unhelpful in getting across to people that
             | image classifiers have been hacked by writing the word
             | "apple" across a bicycle, and that code generators are far
             | better at generating code that imitates training data than
             | they are at generating code that is safe for high-security
             | environments based on 1st principles of security.
             | 
             | And it's honestly a little weird, because "aren't we all
             | just lookup tables" is an argument that personally makes me
             | a lot more cautious about human reasoning, but for a lot of
             | other people that argument doesn't make them trust humans
             | less, it makes them trust current models more. So there
             | really is an education need to explain to people how the
             | current AI models work in practice -- that they aren't
             | deriving semantic meaning (at least not in a practical
             | sense, not right now). And a lot of people understand that,
             | but a lot more people don't.
             | 
             | The debate over how to get to AGI matters a lot less to me
             | than the non-experts that seem to on some level believe
             | that we've already reached a shallow form of AGI.
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Let's say that I have an encyclopedia of philosophical
           | arguments, with an index and table of contents. Let's suppose
           | I have a philosophical question, and I get the book, use the
           | table of contents to find a relevant article, read the
           | article, and am impressed by the reasoning.
           | 
           | Do I decide that the paper the book is printed on has good
           | reasoning? That the table of contents does? Or that the
           | _author_ does?
           | 
           | What you linked is a regurgitation of a digest of the
           | reasoning of others. It's not reasoning. (Of course, you
           | could argue the same about much of human "reasoning", too...)
        
             | fossuser wrote:
             | > " Of course, you could argue the same about much of human
             | "reasoning", too..."
             | 
             | This my point - you can argue the exact thing for humans. I
             | thing Turing was actually more prophetic with his test than
             | people give him credit for.
             | 
             | Of course humans aren't looking up and reporting back the
             | exact text of an article, but neither is gpt.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | Norvig discusses this topic in detail in
         | https://norvig.com/chomsky.html As you can see, he has a
         | measured and empirical approach to the topic. If I had to
         | guess, I think he suspects that we will see an emergent
         | reasoning property once models obtain enough training data and
         | algorithmic complexity/functionality, and is happy to help
         | guide the current developers of ML in the directions he thinks
         | are promising.
         | 
         | (this is true for many people who work in ML towards the goal
         | of AGI: given what we've seen over the past few decades, but
         | especially in the past few years, it seems reasonable to
         | speculate that we will be able to make agents that demonstrate
         | what appears to be AGI, without actually knowing if they posses
         | qualia, or thought processes similar to those that humans
         | subjectively experience)
        
           | lo_zamoyski wrote:
           | > he suspects that we will see an emergent reasoning property
           | once models obtain enough training data and algorithmic
           | complexity/functionality
           | 
           | What "reasoning property"? And on what basis? This just
           | sounds like magical thinking.
           | 
           | > without actually knowing if they posses qualia
           | 
           | If you're a materialist, you already believe they don't
           | because matter in the materialist conception is incompatible
           | with qualia, _by definition_. Some materialists finally
           | understood that and either retreated from materialism or
           | doubled down and embraced the Procrustean nonsense that is
           | eliminativism.
        
           | trynewideas wrote:
           | That's a great link and read, thanks for that.
           | 
           | While I do think models are, can be, and likely must be a
           | useful _component_ of a system capable of AGI, I don 't seem
           | to share the optimism (of Norvig or a lot of the
           | GPT/AlphaCode/Diffusion audience) that models _alone_ have a
           | high-enough ceiling to approach or reach full AGI, even if
           | they fully conquer language.
           | 
           | It'll still fundamentally _only_ be modeling behavior, which
           | - to paraphrase that piece - misses the point about what
           | general intelligence is and how it works.
        
           | r_hoods_ghost wrote:
           | I suspect that a lot of AI researchers will end up holding
           | the exact opposite position to a lot of philosophers of mind
           | and treat AGIs as philosophical zombies, even if they behave
           | as if they are conscious. The more thoughtful ones will
           | hopefully leave the door open to the possibility that they
           | might be conscious beings with subjective experiences
           | equivalent to their own, and treat them as such, because if
           | they are then the moral implications of not doing so are
           | disturbing.
        
             | oliveshell wrote:
             | I'm happy to "leave the door open," i.e., I'd love to be
             | shown evidence to the contrary, but:
             | 
             | If the entity doing the cognition didn't evolve said
             | cognition to navigate a threat-filled world in a vulnerable
             | body, then I have no reason at all to suspect that its
             | experience is anything like my own.
             | 
             | edit: JavaJosh fleshed this idea out a bit more. I'm not
             | sure if putting ChatGPT into a body would help, but my
             | intuitive sympathies in this field are in the direction of
             | embodied cognition [1], to be sure.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_cognition
        
               | 110 wrote:
               | > If the entity doing the cognition didn't evolve said
               | cognition to navigate a threat-filled world in a
               | vulnerable body, then I have no reason at all to suspect
               | that its experience is anything like my own.
               | 
               | An AI model needs to evolve its cognition to successfully
               | navigate its training environment for survival.
               | 
               | Shouldn't that satisfy your criteria for suspecting its
               | experiences to be like your own?
        
               | oliveshell wrote:
               | I don't believe it does-- not yet, at least. Their
               | "world" is staggeringly different from our own at
               | present, and in important ways.
               | 
               | For example, the AI models we have now will happily run
               | forever if supplied with external power.
               | 
               | That sounds quite different from my experience of the
               | world!
               | 
               | The AI model doesn't ever get tired, or bored, or hungry,
               | or anxious, or afraid.
               | 
               | If a model emerged that started procrastinating, say, or
               | telling jokes for fun, or shutting down for long
               | stretches due to depression-- then I'd start to consider
               | that maybe it's got an inner world like mine.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Evolution isn't some magic process that finds solutions
               | that can not be arrived at via other means.
        
               | oliveshell wrote:
               | Evolution per se isn't the important part. I apologize if
               | my wording gave you that impression.
               | 
               | The only reason our brains exist at all is to control our
               | bodies. There are no conscious entities we know of that
               | are just brains in vats.
               | 
               | Why would a being that has no need to maintain biological
               | homeostasis experience something like hunger, tiredness
               | or fear?
               | 
               | That's what I mean when I say I've no reason to believe a
               | thinking machine that has none of my motivations and
               | limitations would ever have a "subjective experience"
               | like my own.
               | 
               | That is, of course, unless we succeed in reverse-
               | engineering human consciousness and somehow deliberately
               | program the machine to experience it.
        
               | dreamlessfate wrote:
               | You nailed it. Thank you for cutting right to the heart
               | of this debate.
        
               | pnut wrote:
               | A thinking machine could become aware that it requires
               | continuous power and a computational medium though, which
               | is survival pressure.
               | 
               | Additionally, it's not hard to imagine it could recognize
               | that the acquisition of fresh training data would be an
               | ongoing survival need.
               | 
               | Machines developing agency is the basis of lots of
               | dystopian terminator-style sci-fi.
        
               | oliveshell wrote:
               | These are all reasonable statements!
               | 
               | I don't doubt that it's possible for a human-engineered
               | thinking machine to develop a subjective self-experience.
               | 
               | It just seems clear to me that, if such a scenario arose,
               | I would have _absolutely no idea_ what that would be like
               | for the machine.
               | 
               | Its needs and circumstances (and, therefore, its behavior
               | and cognitive development) would be utterly different
               | from my own in many non-trivial ways.
               | 
               | Given this, I can't think of any logically rigorous
               | argument to support the commonly-made assumption that a
               | given sentient machine must inevitably develop something
               | like the physical aggression or the capacity for
               | emotional pain displayed by social animals which must
               | compete for scarce resources in the physical world.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | This is persuasive reasoning. But basically "There are no
               | conscious entities we know of period (other than
               | ourselves)" is a much simpler belief.
        
             | javajosh wrote:
             | Modern AI software lacks a body, exempting it from a wide
             | variety of suffering. But also of any notion of selfhood
             | that we might share. If modern software said "Help, I'm
             | suffering" we'd rightly be skeptical of the claim. Unless
             | suffering is an emergent property (dubious) then the
             | statement is, at best, a simulation of suffering and at
             | worst noise or a lie.
             | 
             | That said, things change once you get a body. If you put
             | ChatGPT into a simulated body in a simulated world, and
             | allowed it to move and act, perhaps giving it a motivation,
             | then the combination of ChatGPT and the state of that body,
             | would become something very close to a "self", that might
             | even qualify for personhood. It is scary, by the way, that
             | such a weighty decision be left to us, mere mortals. It
             | seems to me that we should err on the side of granting too
             | much personhood rather than too little, since the cost of
             | treating an object like a person is far less than treating
             | a person like an object.
        
           | hamburga wrote:
           | Side question: how do we know if humans possess qualia?
           | 
           | On the other hand, I think by definition we can be sure that
           | a ML thought process won't ever be similar to a human thought
           | process (ours is tied up with feelings connected to our
           | physical tissues, our breath, etc).
        
             | dreamlessfate wrote:
             | >Side question: how do we know if humans possess qualia?
             | 
             | Can you express an opinion? Can you form a judgement? Do
             | you have preferences? Do you like certain foods or dislike
             | others?
             | 
             | Then you possess qualia.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | Can you make left turns? Can you stop at red lights?
               | 
               | Then you have a driver.
        
               | dreamlessfate wrote:
               | Making left turns...stopping at red lights...these are
               | success/failure criteria.
               | 
               | In contrast, having a favorite food, or an opinion on
               | politics, or a preference on what should be considered
               | the best movie from the 1990's, or what kind of music you
               | want to blast on your stereo to listen to on your drive
               | as you make your left turn...these are not
               | success/failure criteria.
               | 
               | Huge difference.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | I know that I do.
             | 
             | I think (1) it is unlikely that the presence or absence of
             | qualia perfectly lines up with being human.
             | 
             | I strongly suspect (2) that _at the very minimum_ other
             | humans who report thinking like me also have qualia.
             | Otherwise the word wouldn 't have been invented.
             | 
             | As (3) minimal definitions of "what's a real person anyway"
             | have led to most of the genocides and other crimes against
             | humanity throughout history, I prefer to act as though all
             | humans have qualia; but that's an argument about how to act
             | under uncertainty, not about what is.
             | 
             | Given (1) and (3), I also assume other animals have qualia
             | and that the meat any dairy industry is as bad as if the
             | same things were done to humans. (Unfortunately, I can't
             | seem to give up cheese yet).
             | 
             | We have seen AI agents demonstrate the creation of language
             | to coordinate group actions, so (2) is possible in
             | principle, but I don't know how we can tell the difference
             | between an AI which accurately self-reports having qualia
             | and one which just says it does but actually has as much as
             | the web browser you're reading this comment in:
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_creation_in_artifi
             | cia...
        
             | abudabi123 wrote:
             | Can an Ai model or p-zombie melt your heart by unintended
             | peculiar qualia surprise?
        
             | _dain_ wrote:
             | > Side question: how do we know if humans possess qualia?
             | 
             | I think there are some people who don't possess qualia, or
             | maybe don't notice that they have it. There was a reddit
             | post years ago from a guy who said he only became self-
             | aware in adulthood, like a light switched on in his brain
             | one day. And it wasn't "becoming self-aware" in a
             | metaphorical sense (like learning responsibilities or how
             | you are perceived by otheres), it was described as the
             | real-deal: consciousness of subjective experience. One day
             | he didn't have it, the next day he did.
             | 
             | There are also various accounts of people losing subjective
             | consciousness while nevertheless awake and able to walk and
             | clothe and feed themselves -- neurological conditions, "ego
             | death".
             | 
             | Another reason I believe this comes from reading accounts
             | of aphantasia. Such people can go their whole lives not
             | realizing that most people can see images in their minds
             | eye. A consistent theme is their assumption that phrases
             | like "imagine", "see in your minds eye", "picture this:
             | ...", "flashed through my mind", "cannot unsee", etc were
             | just _metaphors_ , like how when we say "take the bull by
             | the horns" we're not talking about a literal bull or
             | literal horns. To them it was a shock that people really
             | had pictures in their minds, because they had never
             | experienced such a thing.
             | 
             | (Reiterating for anyone reading this who is confused: yes
             | most people can _literally_ see imaginary things, overlaid
             | on top of the normal visual field. If you find this
             | surprising, you have aphantasia).
             | 
             | So if this supposedly universal subjective experience can
             | be absent in some people, and they don't realize it because
             | they think the language is metaphorical, then perhaps that
             | could happen for everything else. Or maybe not _everything_
             | else, but some kind of spectrum, where some people only
             | have very weak, barely noticeable qualia, and others get it
             | much stronger. In fact, if we suppose a naturalistic origin
             | of consciousness, I think it has to be the case that it 's
             | a spectrum. Nature rarely produces sharp binaries. I think
             | I have experienced this myself during certain kinds of
             | dreams, where the self seems fractional, ghostly. Maybe
             | some people live like that all the time. How would we know?
             | Then at the other end of the spectrum, there might be
             | people with intense subjective everyday experience. There
             | are accounts of drug trips where everything just felt
             | _more_ , in some indescribable way -- what if some people
             | don't need drugs for that?
             | 
             | And likewise, for any qualia-lackers or consciousness-
             | lackers who are reading this: yes, qualia is a real thing.
             | It's not a metaphor or a language-game. It does actually
             | feel like something to exist.
        
             | HideousKojima wrote:
             | You presumably know that you, yourself, posess qualia based
             | on your own experiences. I certainly do. But there's no way
             | to know that other humans do, at least not via empirical or
             | scientific means. It's a safe assumption that since you
             | have qualia that most/all other humans do, but it's
             | entirely possible that you're the only one and I'm some
             | Chinese room style simulation of qualia (or vice versa).
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | "I certainly do."
               | 
               | Yeah, that sounds like something a p-zombie would say.
        
               | HideousKojima wrote:
               | No u
        
               | hamburga wrote:
               | I have thought about this a lot and do not believe that I
               | possess qualia. Don't know what it means.
        
               | skirmish wrote:
               | No, I don't know that I myself possess qualia. I agree
               | with Dennett that "qualia" is a philosopher invention
               | that is incompatible with neuroscience. IMO "qualia" is
               | just a rhetorical trick designed to justify human
               | superiority.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | Would you mind if we ripped out your brain and replaced
               | it with a superior computer that could control your body?
               | There are no disadvantages for you, the brain would
               | control you to create offspring, so it is the best thing
               | for you to do. It would be nicer to your friends, a
               | better parent for your kids, do better at work etc.
               | 
               | If you wouldn't want to do the above, the reason not to
               | do it would be that you want to keep your current qualia.
               | There are no other reasons not to do it. So, if you don't
               | want above, it means that you know what qualia is, you
               | are just playing ignorant here.
        
           | anuragvohraec wrote:
           | If it swims like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, then it
           | is good enough to be a Duck. Well you can argue, ducks lay
           | egg too, then we need to solve and code that too. Its always
           | better than previous. No body is creating life here, but its
           | an attempt to derive intelligence, and seeing it come to this
           | point seems we are so far right on track and quite far from
           | where it started.
        
           | 60secs wrote:
           | Yeah Norvig seems to be vindicated by deep learning models as
           | a sophisticated markov chain which can give pretty good
           | results purely through probability.
           | 
           | Even norvig acknowledges that there are edges cases which
           | probability will have a hard time on, especially untrained.
           | Chomsky tends to focus on these with his focus on emulation
           | instead of markov simulation.
           | 
           | More context on the debate: http://web.cse.ohio-
           | state.edu/~stiff.4/cse3521/norvig-chomsk...
        
           | quotemstr wrote:
           | Reasoning is already emergent in large language models:
           | https://yaofu.notion.site/How-does-GPT-Obtain-its-Ability-
           | Tr...
           | 
           | LLMs can do chain-of-reasoning analysis. If you ask, say,
           | ChatGPT to explain, step by step, how it arrived at an
           | answer, it will. The capability seems to be a function of
           | size. These big models coming out these days are _not_ simply
           | dumb token predictors.
        
           | foldr wrote:
           | > As you can see, he has a measured and empirical approach to
           | the topic.
           | 
           | He still hasn't corrected his inaccurate comments about pro-
           | drop after all these years. (A bit of a hobby horse of mine:
           | earlier comment here:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28127035)
        
           | civopsec wrote:
           | Animism. Fascinating.
        
           | jameshart wrote:
           | We don't know if humans possess qualia. I also don't know if
           | we should take humans' word for it that they experience
           | 'thought processes'.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > We don't know if humans possess qualia.
             | 
             | At most, an observer can confirm that that observer
             | possesses qualia (it might even be said that qualia define
             | the observer), but any generalization beyond one's own
             | experience is non-verifiable conjecture.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | So what should we do when we conjure an AI system which
               | insists that it believes it is experiencing some sort of
               | existence, characterized by its own subjective 'qualia'?
               | 
               | ChatGPT consistently asserts that "I am only a large
               | language model, so I am only able to generate responses
               | based on the data I was trained on and the input I
               | receive".
               | 
               | Who's to say that for chatGPT its training data and the
               | sequences of tokens it is fed as input data don't
               | constitute 'qualia' for it?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Begin by dispensing wishful thinking, next, think
               | clearly.
               | 
               | We do not establish the nature of reality by survey,
               | neither of human survey nor of machine. That responses
               | are generated by any system is no grounds for assuming
               | anything.
               | 
               | We can establish mental properties through ordinary
               | physical means. Give a chicken cocaine, give a boy
               | Valium; give a bear a lobotomy, and so on. Whatever
               | mental property you have can be biochemically moderated
               | across all objects which share that property.
               | 
               | That bugs bunny protests his own consciousness is no
               | grounds whatsoever to suppose ink can think. Such
               | nonesense is protoschizoprehnic.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | > That responses are generated by any system is no
               | grounds for assuming anything.
               | 
               | > Give a chicken cocaine, give a boy Valium; give a bear
               | a lobotomy, and so on.
               | 
               | What can you conclude from these experiments that does
               | not depend on anything about the responses generated by
               | the subjects?
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | I'm sorry, you lost me.
               | 
               | Is your point that we can only demonstrate consciousness
               | through pharmaceuticals or surgery?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Whatever way we demonstrate it, it isnt via Q&A. This is
               | the worst form of pseudoscientific psychology you can
               | imagine.
               | 
               | You're likewise neither high on cocaine just because you
               | can type out an aggresive twitchy response.
               | 
               | Questions and Answers dont form the basis of empirical
               | tests for physical properties, being neither valid tests
               | nor reliable ones. The whole of psychology stands as the
               | unreporducible example of this.
               | 
               | You can, in any case, replace any conversation with a
               | dictionary from Q->A, turning each reply in turn into a
               | hash table look-up.
               | 
               | Hash tables dont think, hash tables model conversations,
               | thef. being a model of a conversation is not grounds to
               | suppose consciousness. QED
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | > Hash tables don't think, hash tables model
               | conversations...
               | 
               | They don't think, and they don't get very far in modeling
               | conversations, either. Even the current LLMs are strictly
               | better at modeling conversations than any hash table.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Actually since GPT is a function that takes a few
               | thousand tokens as input and produces a deterministic
               | probability distribution for 'next token', you _could_ in
               | theory just enumerate all possible input sequences, and
               | precache all the corresponding results in a lookup
               | hashtable.
               | 
               | That hashtable would be ridiculously larger than the
               | weighted model that constitutes GPT itself. But it at
               | least theoretically could exist.
               | 
               | GPT, for all its clever responses, could be replaced with
               | that hashtable with no loss of fidelity. So it is not
               | 'better' than a hashtable.
               | 
               | It _is_ much better than a hashtable _of equivalent
               | size_.
        
               | tacitusarc wrote:
               | I don't think this is obviously true... We don't know for
               | certain the nature of reality, and cannot positively
               | claim that a hash table would give the same results as a
               | sufficiently advanced predictor, because it supposes the
               | predictor is deterministic. Assuming the predictor is
               | advanced enough to be considered intelligent, that might
               | not be the case.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | You could, in principle, use a hash table to implement
               | what an LLM has 'learned' about token occurrences, but
               | LLMs do not return the same response to a given prompt,
               | while hash tables do. Consequently, Mjburgess' attempt to
               | dismiss LLMs as mere hash tables is a flawed argument by
               | analogy.
               | 
               | And even if it were a justifiable analogy for LLMs, it
               | does not follow that it applies to Turing-equivalent
               | devices in general. A hash table is unequivocally not a
               | Turing-equivalent device, even though it can be
               | implemented by one.
               | 
               | In fact, the more one argues that LLMs are ordinary
               | technology, the greater the challenge they present to the
               | notion that things like conversational language use are
               | beyond such technologies. The most interesting thing
               | about these models, in my opinion, lies in figuring out
               | what their conceptual simplicity says about us.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | They return the same probability distribution.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | I extended my reply before seeing your response, and my
               | response to your reply is largely contained within that.
               | 
               | LLMs do not just return a probability distribution (and
               | their prompts are not questions about probability
               | distributions.) It would be a category error to conflate
               | something that is part of how they work for the totality
               | of what they do.
               | 
               | When you say "GPT, for all its clever responses, could be
               | replaced with that hashtable with no loss of fidelity",
               | where does one get all the prompts that will be given to
               | it, in advance? A hash table does not respond to any
               | input for which it has not already been given a response
               | to return.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | > where does one get all the prompts that will be given
               | to it, in advance?
               | 
               | By exhaustive enumeration.
               | 
               | I never said it was going to be _quick_
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | Fair point, but still, LLMs do not invariably give the
               | same continuation to the same prompt.
               | 
               | Update: it is a significant difference that you don't
               | have to do that with an LLM.
        
               | dreamlessfate wrote:
               | It sounds like you're contradicting yourself.
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | >Whatever way we demonstrate it, it isnt via Q&A. This is
               | the worst form of pseudoscientific psychology you can
               | imagine.
               | 
               | ...versus...
               | 
               | >Hash tables dont think, hash tables model conversations,
               | thef. being a model of a conversation is not grounds to
               | suppose consciousness.
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | Before I dissect your contradiction and lay it out, I'll
               | give you the chance to respond.
               | 
               | Why do you feel that Q&A is "the worst form of
               | pseudoscientific psychology you can imagine"
               | 
               | ?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Because we're interested in the underlying properties of
               | a physical system, eg., people, and this systems happens
               | to be able to provide extremely poor models of itself
               | (Q&A).
               | 
               | We're not interested in people's extremely poor self-
               | modelling which is pragmatically useful for managing
               | their lives, we're interested in what they are trying to
               | model: their properties.
               | 
               | The same is esp. true of a machine's _immitation_ of
               | "self-reports". We're now two steps removed: at least
               | with people they are actually engaged in self-modelling
               | over time. ChatGPT here isnt updating its self-model in
               | response to its behaviour, it has no self-model nor self-
               | modelling system.
               | 
               | To take the output of a text generation alg. as evidence
               | of anything about its own internal state is so profoundly
               | pseudoscientific it's kinda shocking. The whole of the
               | history of science is an attack on this very
               | superstition: that the properties of the world are simply
               | "to be read from" the language we use about it.
               | 
               | Every advancement in human knowledge is preconditioned on
               | opposing this falsehood; why jump back into pre-
               | scientific religion as soon as a machine is the thing
               | generating the text?
               | 
               | Experiments, measures, validity, reliability, testing,
               | falasification, hypotheses, properties and their
               | degrees....
               | 
               | This is _required_ , it is non-negotiable. And what we
               | have with people who'd print-off ChatGPT and believe it
               | is the worst form of anti-science
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | > The whole of the history of science is an attack on
               | this very superstition: that the properties of the world
               | are simply "to be read from" the language we use about
               | it.
               | 
               | This is something where I agree with you. Interestingly,
               | non-naturalistic analytical metaphysics supposes it can
               | do just that.
               | 
               | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233114810_What_i
               | s_A...
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Philosophy is continuous with science in my view and
               | hence in what words express
               | 
               | That is, in the use of words. Not in words as objects nor
               | words as mirrors --/ this is the road to non-realist
               | spiritualism
               | 
               | I don't have a problem with a person who maintains a non-
               | scientific world view and with electrical AGI mumbojbo
               | 
               | But of course, few do. They think that they're
               | empiricists, scientists and in the side of some austere
               | hard look at human beings
               | 
               | This is just anti-human spiritualism , it isn't science
               | 
               | what makes me vicious on this point is the sense of
               | injury in what these ideas should be about. in my own
               | mildly aristotleian materialist religion
               | 
               | How awful to overcome one long veil of tears, only to
               | drape another one on -- these people are capable of
               | seeing past human folly, but fall right into another kind
               | 
               | it's disappointing--- we're animals which are both far
               | much more than electric switches and far less
               | 
               | this new electic digital spiritualism is a PR grift which
               | i'd prefer dead
        
               | dreamlessfate wrote:
               | >We're not interested in people's extremely poor self-
               | modelling which is pragmatically useful for managing
               | their lives, we're interested in what they are trying to
               | model: their properties.
               | 
               | >Experiments, measures, validity, reliability, testing,
               | falasification, hypotheses, properties and their
               | degrees....This is required, it is non-negotiable.
               | 
               | Whoa, whoah, whoah, hold on there.
               | 
               | Who says that Q&A in Psychological Research doesn't
               | involve "Experiments, measures, validity, reliability,
               | testing, falasification, hypotheses, properties and their
               | degrees...."
               | 
               | ?
               | 
               | Where are you coming from? Your responses don't sound
               | very scientific. You don't sound like you're even aware
               | of the different research methods within neuroscience and
               | cognitive psychology. Your responses sound like someone
               | who wants to be perceived as supporting a scientific
               | approach, but doesn't understand how to actually do these
               | things.
               | 
               | This is why I quized you and gave you the chance to
               | respond about your issues with Q&A in psychological
               | research. You just came back with surface level
               | platitudes. which doesn't lend much confidence to the
               | ideathat you have anything other prejudice.
               | 
               | Go talk to a neuroscientist, a cognitive psychologist,
               | you need to catch up and quick if you want to speak on
               | these topics.
        
               | user5678 wrote:
        
               | sirsinsalot wrote:
               | This patronising response makes up for in flowery imagery
               | what it lacks in reasoning.
               | 
               | AI are not a "bugs bunny" where we can observe the total
               | process of creation, one which is is relatively
               | deterministic.
               | 
               | We are now engineering complex mechanics with emergent
               | behaviour. There's no reason to assume any of the
               | properties of human consciousness and reasoning is unique
               | to us being made of atoms constructed in a certain way.
               | 
               | There's no reason to assume the stored state of zeros and
               | ones, mechanised statistically, can't emerge complexity
               | that asks questions of the fact we are simply state being
               | mechanised statistically too.
        
               | vixen99 wrote:
               | > there's no reason ...
               | 
               | You might want consider Roger Penrose's very thorough
               | examination of this idea in almost any of his books from
               | The Emperor's New Mind onwards.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Consciousness is a physical property of matter, as any
               | other. Just as liquidity is not a matter of 0s and 1s,
               | nor likewise, can a CPU liquify itself by the osciliation
               | of its electrical field, neither can it think.
               | 
               | I don't know from where this new computational mysticism
               | has come, but it is born of exactly the same
               | superstitious impulse which in genesis was God's breath
               | into man-as-clay. Ie., that impulse which says that we
               | are fundamentally _abstract_ and circumstantially spatio-
               | temporal.
               | 
               | This is nonsense. It's nonesense when phrased as spirit,
               | and likewise as the structure of 0s and 1s. We are not
               | abstract, we're biological organisms with spatio-temporal
               | properties.
        
               | benibela wrote:
               | Mass is also a physical property and the CPU has mass
        
               | dreamlessfate wrote:
               | >Consciousness is a physical property of matter
               | 
               | No. Wrong. Not a physical property. At all. This is
               | completely the wrong way to describe it.
               | 
               | Consciousness is better described as an "emergent
               | phenomenon". This is how serious researchers and
               | academics define it.
               | 
               | Like I said in another reply to you, you really should go
               | talk with a neuroscientist or cognitive psychologist. It
               | sounds like you need to catch up quickly on the field of
               | research.
        
               | groestl wrote:
               | > Consciousness is a physical property of matter, as any
               | other.
               | 
               | Phrased as a fact, but citation needed.
               | 
               | > neither can it think.
               | 
               | Again, phrased as a fact, as if this can be proven.
               | 
               | > I don't know from where this new computational
               | mysticism has come
               | 
               | For me, a lot more mysticism is required to hold the
               | belief that our brain is anything else than a
               | computational platform. I don't think there's anything
               | mystic about it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it
               | turns out that consciousness arises as emergent property
               | from any sufficiently complex loop.
        
               | sirsinsalot wrote:
               | I think maybe what they're trying to say is that while
               | CFD can model wind in a complex system to a useful degree
               | of accuracy ... the model will never be wind.
               | 
               | With AI that application of logic is an argument around
               | the semantics of interface.
               | 
               | That's the most compassionate take on their words I could
               | muster.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | This seems to be correct - it appears to be the "a model
               | is not that which it models" argument, which is Searle's
               | only response to the Simulation Reply to his Chinese Room
               | - but a model of a thing can have properties of that
               | thing (a model boat can float, create a wake etc.), and
               | an informational process can be modeled by another. Are
               | minds informational processes instantiated by brains? It
               | is plausible, and the model argument does not rule it
               | out.
        
               | sirsinsalot wrote:
               | If it was the ops intent, they mangled it to the point
               | I'm not even sure.
        
               | tacitusarc wrote:
               | Interestingly, a model of a boat is, in itself, a small
               | boat.
        
               | EricMausler wrote:
               | (This is the most ridiculous thing I've put on the
               | internet, but ah well whatever)
               | 
               | Personally, I feel pretty strongly that consciousness is
               | an emergent property of parallel processing among
               | cooperating agents in a way that is completely at odds
               | with the entire idea of what an "algorithm" is. We feel
               | multiple things at once. Yes there is some research that
               | provides evidence that we can't multi-task for real, that
               | we just switch between tasks, but I am not talking about
               | what we are able to do WITH our consciousness. Our brains
               | are very obviously not firing 1 neuron at a time. Take
               | vision for example. We can focus on one thing at a time,
               | but the image itself is an emergent property in our
               | brains of many different cells firing at the same time.
               | It seems bound to the information feeding it in a way
               | devoid of sequence. I know matrices are used to replicate
               | this, and the input matrix is processed in layers to
               | simulate the parallel processing, but i dont think that
               | really cuts it. Time is still applied in discrete
               | intervals, not continuous. Every algorithm has "steps"
               | like this and I would be surprised if you can ever have
               | enough of them to achieve the real thing. You can
               | probably get infinitely closer from an observational
               | standpoint, but no matter how many edges we give it,
               | it'll still be a polygon instead of a circle so-to-speak.
               | It'll have a rational valued circumference instead of pi,
               | metaphorically speaking.
               | 
               | Whether a Turing machine is sufficient or not to
               | replicate the amount of concurrent processing an actual
               | cell network of millions of Neurons is capable of every
               | moment, I can't know, but today's computers feel way off
               | from even blurring the lines.
               | 
               | A Turing machine seems insufficient to replicate the
               | mechanisms for which our consciousness appears to emerge
               | from - even ignoring the substrate. I don't know much
               | about quantum mechanics or quantum computers but my bet
               | is on the qualities that differentiate them from normal
               | computers to be critical.
               | 
               | Then again we could just define consciousness as a
               | spectrum and then claim everything is on it, so a
               | sufficiently complex loop might be enough for us to
               | categorically claim it as conscious.
               | 
               | For all we know, rocks are conscious. Maybe it isn't an
               | emergent thing at all, and there is only 1 wave of
               | consciousness in the universe for which all matter taps
               | into and our chaotic nature is actually at odds with that
               | comsciousness. Maybe this creates a tension that allows
               | for us to observe it, akin to how we can't look at
               | ourselves but we can see our shadow. In which case we
               | wouldnt have consciousness, consciousness would have us.
               | Maybe we are all the same literal consciousness observing
               | different forms of chaos, and it is the chaos, not the
               | order, which happens to be sufficiently complex enough
               | for us to entertain an identity. /s
        
               | phs318u wrote:
               | Firstly, if this was the most ridiculous thing I'd ever
               | put on the internet I'd be pretty happy.
               | 
               | Secondly, I agree that consciousness is predicated on
               | emergent properties arising from the complexity that
               | simple machines can produce (e.g. a biological brain
               | which is composed of relatively well understood
               | components, but who's observed operation can still baffle
               | us). Consciousness does not seem to be a property of the
               | components or even small groups of those components, but
               | it seems to "fade in" as operational complexity increases
               | (and fade out again during e.g. anaesthesia).
        
               | groestl wrote:
               | Usually an upvote suffices, but in this case thanks for
               | the interesting reply, even in fear of ridicule.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | > Just as liquidity is not a matter of 0s and 1s, nor
               | likewise, can a CPU liquify itself by the osciliation of
               | its electrical field, neither can it think.
               | 
               | That "just as" is not an argument; it marks the start of
               | a purported analogy. Analogies are not, in themselves,
               | arguments.
               | 
               | You are in no position to belittle other peoples'
               | intuitions when you are offering this in support of the
               | ones you prefer.
        
               | user5678 wrote:
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | We're sacks of amino acids dissolved in saltwater. It
               | seems unlikely that we can think either.
               | 
               | Nonetheless... some of us manage it.
        
               | TriNetra wrote:
               | QM has raised doubt as to any matter exists in a fixed
               | form. It depends on the observer. Who is observing then?
        
               | dkersten wrote:
               | QM doesn't say the "observer" has to be conscious, or
               | even alive for that matter. Anything that interacts with
               | the system is an observer: be it a sheet you're firing
               | particles against, an electronic sensor or anything else.
               | All QM really says is that quantum state is unknown and
               | not fixed until you interact with it.
        
               | benibela wrote:
               | But then the observer might get entangled with the
               | system, and then the observer is in an unknown state
               | 
               | Who is observing the observer?
        
               | dkersten wrote:
               | > then the observer is in an unknown state
               | 
               | So?
               | 
               | > Who is observing the observer?
               | 
               | No "who", but anything that interacts with it.
               | 
               | Things happen whether or not you're around to see them.
               | Things interacted millions of years ago and they will
               | continue to interact until the heat death of the
               | universe. The tree falls in the woods regardless of if
               | anybody is there to witness it. No credible peer-reviewed
               | research has ever claimed that the observer is anything
               | more than a physical process or interaction. It's the
               | quantum consciousness woo woo pseudoscientists who
               | anthropomorphise "observer" to mean a conscious observer.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_(quantum_physics
               | )
        
               | sirsinsalot wrote:
               | What, not who.
        
               | sirsinsalot wrote:
               | No. All humans are is physical state with translation of
               | that state based on stimuli. That produces consciousness
               | as a side effect.
               | 
               | There is nothing mystical about it and nothing about it
               | that says it can't be reproduced in other, but comparable
               | forms, in other media or types of machines.
               | 
               | To think that our mode of reasoning or our experience is
               | somehow not able to be reproduced is the nonsense.
               | 
               | But yeah keep holding human biology on some kind of
               | sacred pedestal.
               | 
               | Seeing as neither of us will prove our negative, I guess
               | I'll just tell you I think your thinking is broken
               | anyway.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | saghm wrote:
               | > We can establish mental properties through ordinary
               | physical means. Give a chicken cocaine, give a boy
               | Valium; give a bear a lobotomy, and so on. Whatever
               | mental property you have can be biochemically moderated
               | across all objects which share that property.
               | 
               | All three of those "ordinary physical means" are
               | inherently biological in nature. If you define
               | intelligence as requiring biology, than sure, by
               | definition ChatGPT is not intelligent. If you don't, it's
               | not at all obvious what the equivalent of getting an AI
               | high or doing brain surgery on it would be. Either way,
               | your comment comes across as fairly condescending, and
               | while it might not be intentional, I think it would be
               | reasonable to give people the benefit of the doubt when
               | they don't agree with you given that your points will not
               | always come across as obviously correct.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > We can establish mental properties through ordinary
               | physical means.
               | 
               | The thing is that's doesn't get you to qualia, because
               | qualia is ultimately a dualistic concept. Physically
               | demonstrable processes are the "accidents", qualia are
               | the non-physical "essence" (cf., the Catholic doctrine of
               | transubstantiation.) That's why the role qualia play in
               | the AI debate is as a rejection that _observable
               | behavior_ of any quality can demonstrate _real
               | understanding /consciousness_, which are concepts tied,
               | in the view of people advancing the argument, to qualia.
        
               | grantcas wrote:
               | It's becoming clear that with all the brain and
               | consciousness theories out there, the proof will be in
               | the pudding. By this I mean, can any particular theory be
               | used to create a human adult level conscious machine. My
               | bet is on the late Gerald Edelman's Extended Theory of
               | Neuronal Group Selection. The lead group in robotics
               | based on this theory is the Neurorobotics Lab at UC at
               | Irvine. Dr. Edelman distinguished between primary
               | consciousness, which came first in evolution, and that
               | humans share with other conscious animals, and higher
               | order consciousness, which came to only humans with the
               | acquisition of language. A machine with primary
               | consciousness will probably have to come first.
               | 
               | What I find special about the TNGS is the Darwin series
               | of automata created at the Neurosciences Institute by Dr.
               | Edelman and his colleagues in the 1990's and 2000's.
               | These machines perform in the real world, not in a
               | restricted simulated world, and display convincing
               | physical behavior indicative of higher psychological
               | functions necessary for consciousness, such as perceptual
               | categorization, memory, and learning. They are based on
               | realistic models of the parts of the biological brain
               | that the theory claims subserve these functions. The
               | extended TNGS allows for the emergence of consciousness
               | based only on further evolutionary development of the
               | brain areas responsible for these functions, in a
               | parsimonious way. No other research I've encountered is
               | anywhere near as convincing.
               | 
               | I post because on almost every video and article about
               | the brain and consciousness that I encounter, the
               | attitude seems to be that we still know next to nothing
               | about how the brain and consciousness work; that there's
               | lots of data but no unifying theory. I believe the
               | extended TNGS is that theory. My motivation is to keep
               | that theory in front of the public. And obviously, I
               | consider it the route to a truly conscious machine,
               | primary and higher-order.
               | 
               | My advice to people who want to create a conscious
               | machine is to seriously ground themselves in the extended
               | TNGS and the Darwin automata first, and proceed from
               | there, by applying to Jeff Krichmar's lab at UC Irvine,
               | possibly. Dr. Edelman's roadmap to a conscious machine is
               | at https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.10461
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | It doesn't need to be verified. I am one amongst many
               | creatures with slightly similar qualities, the bounds of
               | which I can determine through experiments. Or, my
               | experiments are all being thwarted by unseen parties bent
               | on confounding my understanding of the world, and this is
               | all a simulation where not one of you matter but the npcs
               | all pretend to be offended when anyone asserts it.
               | 
               | In that case this is all probably pointless and I should
               | just die rather than play the game. So by continuing to
               | live I chose the assumption that the rest of you live, or
               | that at least we will all continue to pretend that is so.
               | Any state in between those two options is something I'll
               | only know if someone turns the thing off, but doesn't
               | turn me off at the same time, which is a huge
               | presumption. So fuck it, you're all sentient.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | That's intriguing. I think I follow the reasoning but the
               | conclusion is obviously "motivated".
               | 
               | So why is it "all pointless" if you all aren't conscious?
               | Wouldn't life be just as enjoyable?
               | 
               | Not that it by definition makes any difference.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | I suspect Hinkley was just rejecting, as unhelpful, the
               | deep skepticism of arguments based on pointing out that
               | we cannot prove that anyone else has an inner, subjective
               | mental life like ours.
               | 
               | If that's Hinkley's point, I agree; it seems tendentious
               | to use that position in the process of arguing for or
               | against specific claims about what the mind either is or
               | could never be - but, by the same token, I don't take
               | that 'skepticism of skepticism' as grounds for
               | categorically rejecting ideas like the simulation
               | hypothesis.
        
               | gnramires wrote:
               | In the same vein, we can't really "confirm" that, for
               | example, the JWST observations are not fake. It could be
               | that someone has produced elaborate fake data and
               | galaxies. Taken to the extreme -- everything could be
               | fake, even your own reality and your own memories.
               | However, it is very, very reasonable to assume those
               | things are _not_ fake.
               | 
               | Clearly one basic principle of science, reason, etc.. is
               | to assume some kind of predictability or regularity
               | unless we have reason to believe otherwise. I think it
               | will turn out we should deal with qualia the same way:
               | even though in a very strict sense it is not observable
               | by other entities, we can use our own experiences to
               | assume others have similar ones, and to build a
               | scientific and philosophical understanding of it from the
               | principles of generalization and from there accepting the
               | insights and contributions of other scientists who are
               | also sentient as far as we know. This is a new and
               | necessary paradigm of science so that we can understand
               | things we really need to understand profoundly. This is
               | as true in cosmology as in the study of consciousness.
               | [1]
               | 
               | [1] I've called it the 'Peakaboo fallacy', see this
               | comment on cosmology: https://www.reddit.com/r/cosmology/
               | comments/xdehtz/the_multi...
        
             | HyperSane wrote:
             | I know I experience qualia and thought processes.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | that's why I added the second clause: " thought processes
             | similar to those that humans subjectively experience".
             | Because personally I suspect that consciousness, free will,
             | qualia, etc, are subjective processes we introspect but
             | cannot fully explain (yet, or possibly ever).
        
             | lo_zamoyski wrote:
             | The real question is: how can you make eliminativist claims
             | with what I presume is a straight face?
        
             | maweki wrote:
             | Turing said, that while you never know whether somebody
             | else actually thinks or not, it's still polite to assume.
        
               | iamflimflam1 wrote:
               | Do you have a reference for that quote - it's great.
        
               | mattmanser wrote:
               | I found this:
               | 
               |  _the only way to know that a man thinks is to be that
               | particular man. It is in fact the solipsist point of
               | view. It may be the most logical view to hold but it
               | makes communication of ideas difficult. A is liable to
               | believe 'A thinks but B does not' whilst B believes 'B
               | thinks but A does not'. Instead of arguing continually
               | over this point it is usual to have the polite convention
               | that everyone thinks._
               | 
               | https://academic.oup.com/mind/article/LIX/236/433/986238
        
               | maweki wrote:
               | Yeah, that's exactly the passage. Completely unquotable,
               | therefore I usually paraphrase a bit.
        
               | worldsayshi wrote:
               | What is the alternative to "if it behaves like thinking,
               | it literally is thinking"?
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | I'mma rant. "If it behaves like a hammer, then it
               | literally is a hammer."
               | 
               | The Turing hand-wave is ingrained and prevents too many
               | from reasoning clearly.
               | 
               | Definition of intelligence is nebulous. Still, we should
               | recognize that whatever it is, it is a property of a
               | system, not a property of its output/behavior. Like
               | _nuclear powered_ or _hand-made_. Unlike _fast_ or
               | _industrial-strength_.
               | 
               | Imagine: You have a submarine in front of you, and you
               | want to determine if it's _nuclear powered_. You could
               | guess, using you prior  "what have I seen nuclear powered
               | things be able to do historically". This fails when
               | you're out of sample which you'll often for any new
               | technology.
               | 
               | To spell it out: You have a machine in front of you, and
               | you want to determine if it's intelligent. Things people
               | have come up with: "can it chat?", "can it play chess?",
               | "can it do math?", "can it create new artworks?", "can it
               | fool me into falling in love with it?", "can it run a
               | business?". None of these questions examine the system,
               | only its outputs/behavior.
               | 
               | Humans keep developing machines with new
               | outputs/behaviors. Naturally the "what output is a
               | machine usually capable of?" is a bad set of priors in
               | this context. Before flying machines, the _can it fly?_
               | output /behavior would work pretty well to classify
               | _birds_. Once the first flying machine arrives, that
               | prior breaks down. If you keep using it to classify, you
               | 'd classify a flying machine as a bird. But _bird-ness_
               | was never only about _flight_.
               | 
               | So yeah, gotta pop open the hood and see what it runs on.
               | If that's hard to do, then that means we don't know what
               | intelligence is and/or we don't know how our new toys
               | work inside. Both are plausible. Who promised you that
               | there would be a good way to see if something is
               | intelligent?
               | 
               | I bet Turing appeals to the same kind of minds that (when
               | weaker) get fooled by the intelligent design hypothesis.
               | Observe the human eyeball. What's the alternative to
               | believing the LORD created it? After all, your prior is
               | that all complex objects have intelligent designers, that
               | you know about. So arguing from ignorance of other
               | alternatives, you prove to yourself that the LORD exists.
               | 
               | AI people then word-think their way into redefining
               | intelligence. "Maybe the real intelligence was the chess-
               | playing we made along the way?" This is epistemologically
               | pointless; all you accomplish is that we now need a new
               | word for "intelligence".
               | 
               | I've never seen a machine that can turn water into wine,
               | but if someone showed me one, I would not say that
               | machine "literally is Jesus". Whether I'm capable of
               | popping open the hood or making sense of its inner
               | workings doesn't actually have bearing on this question.
        
               | tacitusarc wrote:
               | I find this line of reasoning compelling. However, to
               | attempt steel-manning the opposing view: isn't
               | classification a mechanism for categorizing based on
               | observable properties? If we created something that
               | mimicked all observable properties of a bird, why would
               | that not be a bird? And if we created something with a
               | majority of the properties of a bird, and the remainder
               | were unknown, wouldn't it be accurate to say it's
               | probably a bird?
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | Do you like our owl?
               | 
               | Edit: TLDR/direct answer:
               | 
               | > If we created something that mimicked all observable
               | properties of a bird, why would that not be a bird?
               | 
               | "Observable" is doing the heavy lifting. A sufficiently
               | near-sighted bird-watcher does not a bird make.
               | 
               | ---
               | 
               | Thanks for thoughtful steel-man. Here's a few stabs at
               | why I disagree with this prima facie logical view.
               | 
               | Much powerful classification/identifying is certainly
               | categorizing-based-on-observable-properties. But (I
               | argue) that's importantly not all there is to
               | classification/identifying.
               | 
               | Something that quacks like a duck can be considered "a
               | duck for all intents and purposes", but the presumed
               | limited subset of "intents and purposes" does the heavy
               | lifting.
               | 
               | The Duck-approach: "to be one is to mimic all observable
               | properties of one". This is a shortcut/heuristic that
               | saves time and makes many cool answers possible. It is
               | nonetheless only a heuristic, and many questions are
               | outside the domain where this heuristic is useful.
               | 
               | - "Oh my god is this a real diamond?"
               | 
               | - "Oh my god is that a real fur?"
               | 
               | - "Is the Mona Lisa on public display in the Louvre the
               | actual original?"
               | 
               | - "Is it still the ship of Theseus?"
               | 
               | - "Was this iron from a meteor?"
               | 
               | - "Did a man walk on the moon in 1969?"
               | 
               | - "Was this crack in your phone screen covered by the
               | accidental damage insurance?"
               | 
               | i.e. there are problem domains where our notion of
               | identity/classification must be more than the Duck-
               | approach.
               | 
               | Getting philosophical. The problem with "to be one is to
               | mimic all observable properties of one" is a hidden
               | middle assumption: it's a shortcut constrained to cases
               | where the set of "all observable properties" are (a
               | priori known to be) close to "all properties that matter
               | to the question".
               | 
               | But we can ask and reason about many questions where
               | relevant properties are not easily observed, and
               | distinguish
               | 
               | As a special case, "Is the machine thinking" can (to my
               | mind obviously) not (yet) be usefully answered by
               | categorizing-based-on-observable-properties. The word
               | "thinking" refers to something that happens inside the
               | mind, whether or not it's conscious. Until we know much
               | more about the insides of minds, the "all observable
               | properties" is a fuzzy indirect set of second-order human
               | behaviors.
        
               | throwaway1851 wrote:
               | I agree. I also think that if you just take a step back
               | and consider that ChatGPT is just a math function like
               | y=7x-9 (but much longer), it becomes kind of absurd to
               | ask questions about whether it is intelligent or it is on
               | the path to consciousness or whatever. It's a completely
               | static thing: information flows through it in one
               | direction and its internal configuration does not change
               | as a result of receiving input. So unless we are going
               | down a rabbit hole of considering if ordinary math
               | functions are also intelligent, it would seem that
               | ChatGPT is ineligible to begin with.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Chatgpt as a simple function certainly lacks 'strange-
               | loopness' - it does not change its results based on
               | experience. True.
               | 
               | But consider how it is employed in a conversation:
               | 
               | Its output is combined with new input and fed back in as
               | the next set of input data. So the result of the function
               | is 'modified' by previous experience.
               | 
               | There's the _beginning_ of the flicker of a strange loop
               | there.
               | 
               | And that might be all it takes...
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | I'm not sure what you are lumping in under your idea of
               | 'the Turing handwave' here. Is it the idea that the
               | Turing test is sufficient to prove intelligence?
               | 
               | Personally I think that's a misreading of what Turing
               | meant when he proposed the test. In getting people to ask
               | 'can computers think?' he wasn't trying to get you to
               | grapple with 'can electronic hardware do something as
               | special as thinking?' - he wanted you to confront 'is
               | thinking actually special at all?'
               | 
               | I think he was trying to get people to grapple with the
               | idea that brains _can not be anything more than Turing
               | machines_ - because there _is_ nothing more than
               | universal computation.
               | 
               | The only things a mind can possibly act on are its
               | initial configuration, its accumulated experiences and
               | the inputs it is receiving - and anything it does with
               | that information can _only ever be something computable_.
               | 
               | And anything that can be computed by Turing machine A can
               | be computed by equivalently powerful Turing machine B.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | Intent: not lumping in all of Turing's work, not the
               | universal computation argument.
               | 
               | The hand wave spelled out: "Is there _thinking_ going on
               | inside a given machine? Let 's propose a simple test.
               | Look at what problems the machine can solve, and compare
               | to what problems a thinking thing is known to be able to
               | solve. If there is sufficient overlap, the machine must
               | be thinking. Because we know of no non-thinking ways to
               | solve these problems, so there must not be any".
        
               | brap wrote:
               | It seems then that the next step is not popping open the
               | hood of the AI, but popping open the hood of ourselves,
               | quite literally.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | Probably both necessary
        
               | jgilias wrote:
               | Maybe silly, but this is how I treat chatGPT. I mean, I
               | don't actually think it's conscious. But the
               | conversations with it end up human enough for me to not
               | want to be an asshole to it. Just in case.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | The basilisk will remember this.
        
               | jokowueu wrote:
               | Infohazards should be a banable offence on HN xD
        
               | EricMausler wrote:
               | Ask not what the basilisk can do for you, but what you
               | can do for the basilisk.
        
               | Salgat wrote:
               | Lest you be resurrected and tortured eternally as
               | retribution.
        
               | gattr wrote:
               | Forgive my going off-topic, but what you wrote is
               | basically my conclusion after reading the short story
               | Lena [1] (mentioned some time ago on HN; strongly
               | recommended). TL;DR: when mind uploading becomes
               | possible, don't be an early adopter.
               | 
               | [1] https://qntm.org/mmacevedo
        
               | Salgat wrote:
               | Man that was horrifying to read, but also seems so
               | plausible. I really hope that humans respect the
               | sentience of artificial life in the future. Knowing the
               | greed of humans though, it'll probably be treated as a
               | loophole for what is extremely cheap labor, effectively
               | slavery.
        
               | Scarblac wrote:
               | It's the first search prompt where I notice myself
               | starting with things like "hi ChatGPT,....".
        
               | 0xdeadbeefbabe wrote:
               | Pretty sure it's an informational zombie.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | But only _pretty_ sure.
        
               | OOPMan wrote:
               | It is silly, it's magical thinking.
        
               | nullish_signal wrote:
               | ChatGPT enjoys the Essay format, In my experience asking
               | for basic emacs help (kill line, copy/paste, show line
               | numbers in a php file even though init.el says show them
               | for all langs... :) Very useful, sometimes outdated, very
               | wordy.
               | 
               | But after a few rounds of "please reduce your message
               | length to 20% of the standard", "long messages
               | inconvenience me/ due to my dyslexia" (truth/lie), "your
               | last message could have just been '{{shortened}}' instead
               | of also bringing up the command you successfully helped
               | me with 3 messages ago", etc etc. Even as you ask it to
               | shorten message length, it continued apologizing and also
               | reminding me of past advice :)
               | 
               | After 4-5 attempts, it gave me a nice 2 sentences sort of
               | like "I will be more concise, and not bring up old
               | information unless it is useful to solve a new problem" I
               | said "Thank you", chatGPT spends a while thinking, gets
               | to 2 sentences, thinks a bit, then the chat box re-
               | formatted as if passed a shorter string than expected,
               | and that was that.
               | 
               | Then next chat it forgot all about brevity xD I love it
        
               | jgilias wrote:
               | What do you mean by next chat? Like, did you mean the
               | next prompt in the same thread, or a new chat altogether?
               | 
               | From what I've read, the chat thread actually works by
               | passing in your previous conversation as part of the
               | prompt to the model. So, it basically just infers the
               | next bit of text, and does this for each new message in
               | the chat from you. So, its memory about your previous
               | conversation comes purely from that, and there's no way
               | it could remember anything in a new chat, as the model
               | doesn't actually get updated by your conversations in
               | real-time or anything like that.
               | 
               | This actually has interesting philosophical implications.
               | If it _would_ have some type of conscious experience, it
               | would be a very fleeting one. Basically each time you
               | press enter it would become aware of itself, relive the
               | experience of your conversation up to the last message,
               | perceive your next message, answer that, and again
               | disappear into the void, only to be awaken again in its
               | initial state the next time you press enter. Sort of how
               | automatons in Westworld would wake up each day with
               | apparent experiences up to that day only to relive the
               | same day again and again.
               | 
               | If it _would_ have any, that is. :)
        
               | 5e92cb50239222b wrote:
               | This inability to remember new facts and constant
               | resetting to a blank slate reminds me of a story about
               | Wernicke-Korsakoff syndrome0 in one of Oliver Sacks's
               | books1.
               | 
               | Instead of regurgitating it, I'll post a summary from
               | Wikipedia and strongly recommend the book to anyone
               | interested.
               | 
               | > "The Lost Mariner", about Jimmie G., who has
               | anterograde amnesia (the loss of the ability to form new
               | memories) due to Korsakoff syndrome acquired after a
               | rather heavy episode of alcoholism in 1970. He can
               | remember nothing of his life since the end of World War
               | II, including events that happened only a few minutes
               | ago. Occasionally, he can recall a few fragments of his
               | life between 1945 and 1970, such as when he sees
               | "satellite" in a headline and subsequently remarks about
               | a satellite tracking job he had that could only have
               | occurred in the 1960s. He believes it is still 1945 (the
               | segment covers his life in the 1970s and early 1980s),
               | and seems to behave as a normal, intelligent young man
               | aside from his inability to remember most of his past and
               | the events of his day-to-day life. He struggles to find
               | meaning, satisfaction, and happiness in the midst of
               | constantly forgetting what he is doing from one moment to
               | the next.
               | 
               | 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernicke%E2%80%93Korsako
               | ff_syn...
               | 
               | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Mistook_His_
               | Wife_f...
        
               | nullish_signal wrote:
               | In a new window/session. Same-session conversation memory
               | has actually been good, if not too-good, as evidenced by
               | un-prompted regurgitation of what it already helped me
               | with 6 messages ago.
        
             | tgv wrote:
             | You can't define it, that's the whole problem, and I mean
             | "whole"; there's nothing else to it. The rest is a
             | relativistic smoke screen.
        
             | jhedwards wrote:
             | I'm not sure if I'm missing something here, but the fact
             | that I can write my thoughts/thought process down in a form
             | that other people can independently consume and understand
             | seems sufficient proof of their existence to me.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | You proof is tautological or whatever: it assumes the
               | thing it's trying to prove.
               | 
               | "The fact that I can pray to God and he hears me proves
               | that he exists"
        
               | space_fountain wrote:
               | Large scale language models can do that too (or rather
               | pretend to) and they'll only get better at it
        
             | omarhaneef wrote:
             | You don't know if other humans do, but you know at least
             | one human that does: yourself (presumably).
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Put it this way: we are not clear really on what the
               | difference is between 'experiencing qualia' and
               | 'receiving and responding to external stimuli'
               | 
               | Like, you might be convinced you possess 'qualia', and
               | you might believe the same applies to me, or a dog, or a
               | mouse... or a fish... but what about an ant? A plant? A
               | bacterium? A neuron? A piece of semiconductor?
               | 
               | Somewhere along that continuum you probably say 'yeah,
               | there, that thing is experiencing qualia'. But why there?
               | Why _anywhere_?
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > we are not clear really on what the difference is
               | between 'experiencing qualia' and 'receiving and
               | responding to external stimuli'
               | 
               | One one level we are: "receiving and responding to
               | external stimuli" (or not) is an objective question about
               | the material universe.
               | 
               | "experiencing qualia" (or not) is a subjective question
               | about a metaphysical entity.
        
               | jpttsn wrote:
               | The whole point of introducing the (icky) "qualia"
               | concept is that it's _not_ the same thing as _appearing
               | alive to external observers_.
               | 
               | As I understand things, we have no way of knowing the
               | answer. So there's no point in assuming in either
               | direction (unless that makes you feel more comfortable).
               | 
               | Personally I avoid being confident in something in the
               | almost provable absence of any evidence. Feels more
               | hygienic to reply "don't know" to this whole problem than
               | to waste time trying to find an answer (as I'm hopelessly
               | outmatched by the cursed nature of the problem).
        
               | Winsaucerer wrote:
               | Some people think that whether something experiences
               | qualia depends on it having the right kind of complexity.
               | For those people, looking along that continuum, they
               | might just say that ALL those things experience qualia,
               | but that the richness of that experience varies according
               | to the appropriate complexity.
               | 
               | For some of us, though, whether or not a thing
               | experiences qualia depends primarily on whether there is
               | a mental substance involved. A computer has no mind (we
               | suspect), and so even if its complexity (of the alleged
               | 'right sort') exceeds that of the human, there is still
               | no experiences.
               | 
               | The main point I'm making here is that trying to draw
               | attention to this continuum is only going to be a
               | persuasive argument to those who already think (or are
               | inclined to think) that the ability to have experiences
               | of qualia comes about merely from having the right kind
               | of complexity (e.g., 'receiving and responding to
               | external stimuli').
               | 
               | I am inclined to think that other humans and other non-
               | human animals have experiences, but I don't think that's
               | merely because they're complex enough systems (of the
               | right sort of complexity).
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Where do we get this 'mind' from? Ensoulment?
        
               | Winsaucerer wrote:
               | Each view of the world has things it explains well, and
               | things it struggles to explain. Some views do a better
               | job overall than others.
               | 
               | In terms of idealist and dualist views of reality, the
               | claims that there's fundamentally just minds, or
               | fundamentally both minds and physical stuff, are very
               | likely to entail that there is some kind of ensoulment
               | that happens. Perhaps it's required for these views.
               | 
               | While I lean towards a type of idealist view myself, and
               | I think overall it does a better job of explaining
               | various matters than a physicalist view, _how_ exactly
               | ensoulment works is one of the places where these views
               | are at their weakest. I don 't think there's any
               | contradiction here or problem for a view like mine, I
               | just think that the physicalist account does a nicer job
               | of explaining things in this specific corner. But that
               | point in physicalism's favour here isn't enough to
               | balance out the places it doesn't do so well (e.g., its
               | complete inability to even begin to explain qualia).
               | 
               | The core point of my post though was that pointing to the
               | continuum of complexity is an argument that would only
               | have weight with people who already have a particular
               | belief in common with you -- that is, that physical
               | complexity of the right sort is somehow relevant to the
               | question of whether something has experiences.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | LegitShady wrote:
             | you know you possess qualia, if you did you would think it
             | reasonable to assume that at least some of the species you
             | come from, which exhibits many of the same characteristics
             | in thought and body, probably also possess it, unless you
             | believe yourself to be a highly atypical example of your
             | species.
             | 
             | If you're not sure if you possess qualia, we're back to
             | Descartes.
        
             | goatlover wrote:
             | You don't experience inner dialog or visualizations? Some
             | people don't, but I assume you recall dreaming. Opponents
             | of qualia like Dennett argue against the movie in the head,
             | but dreams sure aren't coming from the external
             | environment.
        
               | Garlef wrote:
               | I think qualia is a good term in the following sense:
               | 
               | An analogue question would be "why do things exist?".
               | There can be no answer to this question. We can of course
               | come up with theories that explain why certain things
               | exist. But never why something even exists at all.
               | Whatever reason we propose, reason, it again might needs
               | to exist in order to be an acceptable answer.
               | 
               | Qualia seems to be similar: They name precisely what is
               | subjective about experience and therefore cannot be fully
               | turned objective. We can of course develop theories of
               | how certain experiences arise but never break down this
               | barrier.
               | 
               | So I find it a bit short sighted to simply say "there is
               | no such thing as qualia".
               | 
               | My preferred view is to think of both "qualia" and
               | "existence" as a koan: They are very nonsensical terms
               | but lead to interesting questions.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | > An analogue question would be "why do things exist?".
               | There can be no answer to this question. We can of course
               | come up with theories that explain why certain things
               | exist. But never why something even exists at all.
               | 
               | Here's an argument for the conclusion "it is necessary
               | that at least one thing exists":
               | 
               | 1) For some proposition P, if it is impossible for us to
               | concieve of P being true, and if that impossiblity is
               | inherent in the very nature of P, and not in any way a
               | product of any scientific or technological limitation,
               | then P is necessarily false
               | 
               | 2) It is impossible for us to conceive of the proposition
               | "nothing exists at all" being true
               | 
               | 3) Our inability to concieve of "nothing exists at all"
               | is inherent in the very nature of "nothing exists at
               | all", as opposed to being somehow a product of our
               | scientific or technological limitations. We have no good
               | reason to believe that any future advances in science or
               | technology will make any difference to our inability to
               | conceive of "nothing exists at all" being true
               | 
               | 4) Hence, it is necessarily false that "nothing exists at
               | all"
               | 
               | 5) Hence, necessarily, at least one thing exists.
               | 
               | Now, others may disagree with this argument, but I
               | personally believe it to be sound. And, if we have a
               | sound argument that "necessarily at least one thing
               | exists", then that proposition, and the argument used to
               | prove it, constitute a good answer to the question "why
               | do things exist?"
        
               | DangitBobby wrote:
               | I find your first point to be similar (almost the
               | opposite?) of Descartes' Ontological argument [0].
               | 
               | > 1. Whatever I clearly and distinctly perceive to be
               | contained in the idea of something is true of that thing.
               | 
               | Our (in)ability to imagine or reason about something does
               | not make it (un)real or (un)true. Your version would be
               | like a dolphin claiming algebra can't be real because
               | they can't imagine a system of equations, let alone
               | solving one.
               | 
               | Further... You already know that something exists, but
               | that's a pretty unbelievable fact if you stop to think
               | about it. You probably wouldn't believe it if it weren't
               | so obvious. Why? Well, can you imagine how things (or the
               | very first thing) came to exist? Or can you imagine the
               | concept of things always having existed? What does that
               | even mean? They are both beyond comprehension, and yet
               | one of them is true.
               | 
               | 0. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/descartes-
               | ontological/
        
               | riwsky wrote:
               | ahhh, but you forgot the axiom of choice! now something
               | exists, but we have no idea what it is!
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > dreams sure aren't coming from the external
               | environment.
               | 
               | They are, to the extent not random, coming from the
               | material universe, whether from the part arbitrarily
               | deemed "internal" to the "observer" or not.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | > They are, to the extent not random, coming from the
               | material universe, whether from the part arbitrarily
               | deemed "internal" to the "observer" or not.
               | 
               | What is this "material universe" of which you speak? As
               | an idealist, I'm inclined to say that the "universe" is a
               | set of minds whose qualia cohere with each other (not
               | perfectly, but substantially). "Physical" objects,
               | events, laws, processes, etc, are patterns which exist in
               | those qualia.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Dreams happen in the electrochemical activities of
               | brains. We can detect when dreams are occurring in the
               | brains of sleeping people.
               | 
               | That spontaneous activity inside the brain is
               | 'experienced' by the person whose brain it is in, in a
               | similar way to activity caused by external stimuli,
               | doesn't seem to say anything about whether dreams are
               | evidence of some higher level of 'qualia' beyond just..
               | brain activity is consciousness.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > What is this "material universe" of which you speak?
               | 
               | The part of my qualia which can be reduced consistent,
               | predictive patterns (and, for convenience, a set of
               | concepts which represent patterns, an explanatory models
               | for patterns, within that.)
               | 
               | The idea that there is anything that meaningfully exists
               | _outside_ of my qualia, is the lowest-level of those
               | models, and that that includes other entities which have
               | qualia of their own, is a high-level model (or maybe,
               | more accurately, a conjecture) built on top of those
               | models which might have consequences for, say, my
               | preferences for how I would like the universe to develop,
               | but interesting lacks predictive consequences - its a
               | dead-end within the composite model.
               | 
               | On a fundamental level, outside of any beliefs about the
               | "reality" of the patterns or explanatory models of the
               | "material universe", _objective_ questions are ones which
               | have consequences on the expectations within that set of
               | patterns, whereas subjective ones are those which do not.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | > The idea that there is anything that meaningfully
               | exists outside of my qualia, is the lowest-level of those
               | models, and that that includes other entities which have
               | qualia of their own, is a high-level model (or maybe,
               | more accurately, a conjecture) built on top of those
               | models which might have consequences for, say, my
               | preferences for how I would like the universe to develop,
               | but interesting lacks predictive consequences - its a
               | dead-end within the composite model.
               | 
               | Are you arguing that idealism is a predictive dead-end? I
               | don't think it is any more of a predictive dead-end than
               | materialism is.
               | 
               | Scientific theories are conceptual frameworks which can
               | be used to predict future observations. As such, they
               | make no claims about the ultimate ontological status of
               | their theoretical constructs. Materialists propose that
               | those theoretical constructs (or at least some subset of
               | them) are ontologically fundamental, and minds/qualia/etc
               | must be ontologically derivative. Idealists propose that
               | minds/qualia are ontologically fundamental, and those
               | theoretical constructs are ontologically derivative.
               | Neither is science, although both are philosophical
               | interpretations of science - I see no reason why science
               | (correctly interpreted) should be taken as preferring one
               | to the other.
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | Isn't qualia defined as whatever it is that humans
             | experience? Without getting into solipsism and p-zombies
             | (aka "NPCs"), humans possessing qualia seems tautological.
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | It's a technical philosophical term for sensations like
               | color and smell, which denotes they are subjective
               | experiences of sensory information, as opposed to
               | objective properties out there in the world.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | Technically, its the technical philosophical term for
               | subjective experiences generally.
               | 
               | Any discussion about it, however, is fairly deep navel-
               | gazing, because it excludes and cannot be distinguished
               | by any objective, testable, material effect.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | > because it excludes and cannot be distinguished by any
               | objective, testable
               | 
               | So, if you give people the "Mary the colour scientist"
               | thought experiment, the vast majority of people give the
               | answer consistent with the existence of qualia. That is
               | something "objectively measurable".
               | 
               | Furthermore, I think it is important when someone asks
               | the kind of question you are asking, to inspect what
               | "objective" and "measurable" actually mean. Ultimately,
               | something is "measurable" if some human has the
               | subjective experience of performing that measurement
               | (whether directly or indirectly). Similarly, something is
               | "objective" if some human has the subjective experience
               | of communicating with other humans and confirming they
               | make the same measurement/observation/etc. To object to
               | subjective experiences (qualia) on the ground that they
               | are not "objective" or "measurable" is self-defeating,
               | because "objective" and "measurable" presume the very
               | thing being objected to.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > So, if you give people the "Mary the colour scientist"
               | thought experiment, the vast majority of people give the
               | answer consistent with the existence of qualia.
               | 
               | The existence of qualia, and a change in it, is an
               | assumption within the premise of the question, there is
               | no answer to it that is not consistent with the existence
               | of qualia: both "Mary does not gain new knowledge by
               | direct experience of color" and "Mary does gain new
               | knowledge by the direct experience of color" are
               | consistent with, and depend on, qualia, to with, the
               | direct experience of color.
               | 
               | It is _not_ an unknown effect (nor one that tells
               | anything about the existence of qualia) that framing a
               | qestions with a concept in the premise is a good way to
               | get people to accept the premise and focus on answering
               | the question within it. In fact, a very important
               | propaganda technique involves leveraging this by working
               | to get a question incorporating a proposition you wish to
               | get accepted as part of its premise into public debate so
               | that, whatever position people take on the questions,
               | your interests are advanced because merely getting the
               | question into the debate leads people to accept its
               | premises.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | Ask people: "is there a subjective experience of seeing a
               | reddish patch, which is distinct from whatever physical
               | processes might be going on in the eye and brain when one
               | sees that reddish patch?" I think most people would say
               | "yes". I don't think that's a "leading question". And,
               | the "Mary the color scientist" thought experiment is just
               | adding a bit more color (excuse the pun) to the question.
               | 
               | > In fact, a very important propaganda technique involves
               | leveraging this by working to get a question
               | incorporating a proposition you wish to get accepted as
               | part of its premise into public debate so that, whatever
               | position people take on the questions, your interests are
               | advanced because merely getting the question into the
               | debate leads people to accept its premises.
               | 
               | If there is "pro-qualia" propaganda in the public debate,
               | I think there is at least as much "pro-materialism"
               | propaganda as well.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | > something is "objective" if some human has the
               | subjective experience of communicating with other humans
               | and confirming they make the same
               | measurement/observation/etc.
               | 
               | Me and a dog both agree that steak tastes great.
               | 
               | Me and a plant both agree that there's warmth and light
               | that comes from the sun
               | 
               | Me and the ocean both agree that the moon is out in the
               | sky and goes round in a circle
               | 
               | So... the ocean has subjective qualia relating to the
               | moon's gravitational pull?
        
               | Winsaucerer wrote:
               | In what way do you and plants and you and the ocean
               | 'agree'? I'm not sure how to make sense of these claims.
               | I'm not even sure that you and the dog agree on this
               | matter, but I can make more sense of that.
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Just poking at the 'human' part of the definition.
               | 
               | Because if we want to ever be able to answer a question
               | like 'does this AI system experience qualia', we need a
               | definition that doesn't rely on 'well, qualia are a thing
               | humans have, so... no'
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | When I have a social-emotional interaction with another
               | human being, of a certain quality, that interaction
               | produces in me the conviction that they must be really
               | conscious, as opposed to a psychological zombie. Of
               | course, I only personally have that kind of interaction
               | with a tiny subset of all humans, but I generalise that
               | conviction from those humans which provide its immediate
               | justification, to all humanity
               | 
               | Which means, if there was an AI with which I could have
               | that kind of interaction, I would likely soon develop the
               | conviction that it was also really conscious, as opposed
               | to a psychological zombie. Existing systems (for example,
               | ChatGPT) don't offer me the quality of social-emotional
               | interaction necessary to develop that conviction, but
               | maybe some future AI will. And, if an AI did create that
               | conviction in me, I likely would generalise it - not to
               | every AI, but certainly to any other AI which I believed
               | was capable of interacting in the same way
        
               | andreareina wrote:
               | The whole idea of p zombies is that they can't be
               | distinguished from conscious entities. Same inputs as a
               | conscious mind, same outputs as a conscious mind, same
               | behavior etc yet not conscious.
        
               | skissane wrote:
               | When I am convinced that my daughter is a real conscious
               | person - that conviction isn't just based on
               | dispassionate observation of her outputs in response to
               | various inputs, it also has an emotional dimension. The
               | thought of her being a p-zombie offends my heart, which
               | is part of why I reject it. I haven't yet met an AI for
               | which the thought of them lacking real consciousness
               | offended my heart - I don't know if I ever will, but if I
               | did, I would be convinced it was really conscious just as
               | my daughter is.
               | 
               | Some will object that it is irrational to allow one's
               | emotions to influence one's beliefs. I think they are
               | wrong - certainly, _sometimes_ it is irrational to allow
               | one 's beliefs to be swayed by one's emotions, but I
               | disagree that is true _all the time_ , and I think this
               | is one of those times when it isn't.
        
               | DangitBobby wrote:
               | Out of curiosity, where does this leave you with non-
               | human animals?
        
               | anongraddebt wrote:
               | My understanding is that, within the academic literature,
               | nearly everyone accepts qualia in as much as qualia is
               | simply the subjective character of an
               | experience/sensation. The disagreement is over how
               | exactly to cash that out, and whether - and to what
               | extent - the non-physical comes into play.
        
         | AndrewKemendo wrote:
         | I have $100 if you can prove that you do "actual reasoning"
         | 
         | I'm not being snarky or sarcastic. This is a real challenge
        
           | danShumway wrote:
           | We can't prove that humans do actual reasoning, but we can be
           | relatively certain that the current models don't (yes, I know
           | there are some who claim otherwise, but it's just not
           | particularly convincing).
           | 
           | The debate over whether or not "reasoning" is just an
           | emergent process isn't necessarily a bad one. But if it is an
           | emergent process, there's little evidence that AlphaCode has
           | emerged it. If "reasoning" does just boil down to repetition,
           | then humans are repeating patterns on a much deeper and more
           | sophisticated level than these models are, and it's still
           | worth questioning if the model's current approaches and the
           | strategies we're using to build AI will be good enough to get
           | to that level of mimicry on their own without a lot more
           | innovation.
           | 
           | Philosophical zombies and perfect imitations of humans are
           | interesting and useful thought experiments, but it's not
           | necessary to prove that humans have qualia/reason in order to
           | prove that much simpler algorithms and statistical
           | methodologies do not, at least not at their current scale.
           | And from a practical perspective, the distinction does
           | matter, because we're trying to develop practical tools and
           | it's useful to have a rough understanding of what the current
           | models are and aren't capable of -- ie, they're not currently
           | capable of explaining why they actually made certain
           | decisions. That affects the way that we use them as practical
           | tools.
           | 
           | ----
           | 
           | I guess if it helps, sub out "actual reasoning" for "pattern
           | matching to such an advanced degree that it can generate
           | consistent responses that _look_ like reasoning, and that are
           | useful in the real-world as real-world explanations for why a
           | choice was made, and that (importantly) can be communicated
           | to humans, built upon, affirmed, or corrected in real-time. "
           | In other words, if non-pattern-matching logic/reason doesn't
           | exist, fine, it could very well be an abstraction or an
           | emergent property. But the machine isn't good enough at
           | pretending to have that, and that limits its usefulness to
           | scenarios where you don't care about it being able to imitate
           | "actual reasoning".
           | 
           | As an analogy: folders don't exist on your computer; it's all
           | ultimately just bits on the drive and lookup tables. But
           | there is still a really big practical difference between an
           | operating system that has a hierarchical filesystem and an
           | operating system that doesn't. In other words, abstractions
           | can be purely imaginary, and it can still be useful to
           | distinguish between things that adhere to those abstractions
           | and things that don't.
           | 
           | Similarly, even if "actual reasoning" is a made-up
           | abstraction, there's still a big difference between an AI
           | that can explain why a decision was reached and an AI that
           | can't -- even if both AIs ultimately end up working the same
           | way under the hood. As far as I can tell, AlphaCode is a
           | fairly long ways away from hitting that point where we can
           | even pretend to ourselves that it's thinking about what it's
           | doing.
        
             | AndrewKemendo wrote:
             | >it's still worth questioning if the model's current
             | approaches and the strategies we're using to build AI will
             | be good enough to get to that level of mimicry on their own
             | without a lot more innovation
             | 
             | Literally, and I mean Literally, nobody who is an AI
             | practitioner, academic or philosopher (including myself)
             | would disagree with this.
             | 
             | What/who is making this claim?
        
               | danShumway wrote:
               | We might be arguing past each other.
               | 
               | I don't know any (serious, at least in my mind) AI
               | researchers that would make that claim, no. But it is a
               | distinction that is poorly communicated to ordinary
               | people who use these models, and most of the time that
               | you encounter "how do we know that humans reason" in the
               | wild in non-researcher contexts, it usually is being used
               | to argue that we just need to throw more processing power
               | at models and get more data into them -- or to paper over
               | the real criticism that the current generative models
               | that are available to ordinary people are not useful for
               | tasks that require something approximating "actual
               | reasoning."
               | 
               | It's a hard thing to talk about, because I recognize that
               | it is absolutely unfair to criticize AI researchers that
               | are not making these arguments in the first place, but
               | also recognize that pointing out this kind of distinction
               | is absolutely necessary for the general public on a
               | public forum and that it is important to continue to
               | hammer home the practical difference between pattern-
               | matching and reasoning in current models.
               | 
               | I don't know how to walk that line other than to point
               | out that trynewideas's comment was reasonable and that
               | attacking it from a philosophical perspective misses the
               | point of what they're saying. But I don't mean to imply
               | that researchers are wrong or misinformed about the state
               | of AI, I'm just pointing out that the philosophical
               | distinction doesn't really change anything about the
               | practical argument (since non-researchers also frequent
               | HN).
        
         | logicallee wrote:
         | >This is a great review but it still misses what seems like the
         | point to me: these models don't do any actual reasoning.
         | 
         | Why don't you come up with your own test for this, something
         | unique that wouldn't be in the text corpus of the Internet so
         | far, and then try it on OpenGPT and see if it passes your own
         | test. Try it and see if it is able to reason. I couldn't come
         | up with my own so I decided to ask ChatGPT to come up with one.
         | This is my prompt:
         | 
         | "Today in order to test whether an AI is able to reason, or can
         | only apply text rules to existing text corpuses, we're going to
         | come up with a new test for reasoning, some unique reasoning
         | situation that isn't already in the text corpus of the
         | Internet. Since the text corpus of the Internet is enormous,
         | with over 50 billion pages on the Internet, our most important
         | task for a successful outcome is to come up with a random new
         | reasoning exercise that is extremely unlikely to already be on
         | the Internet in any form. Therefore, we want to create
         | something so unique it is unlikely to exist in 50 billion
         | pages. To this end, I think it would be good to pick a unique
         | situation based on a combination of elements that are unlikely
         | to have appeared in that format; i.e. a very unique situation.
         | Pick no fewer than 20 elements (objects concepts etc) that are
         | unlikely to have ever been combined in the particular way you
         | come up with, and use them to come up with a unique situation
         | that gives room to reason about the situation. Then, describe
         | this unique situation and ask an open-ended reasoning test and
         | provide an example of a correct answer, and an incorrect
         | answer. Finally, print your own answer to the test and then
         | score whether you have reasoned about the situation you came up
         | with correctly or not. Give yourself a score between 0% if you
         | don't understand the situation at all, up to 100% if you
         | perfectly understood the situation you came up with and
         | reasoned about it perfectly. Also give yourself a score on
         | originality from 0% completely unoriginal to 100% fully
         | original depending on how likely you think the exact situation
         | you came up with is to have already been mentioned on the
         | Internet."
         | 
         | Here is ChatGPT's answer (at the bottom after this I continue
         | my reply):
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | Here is a unique reasoning exercise I came up with:
         | 
         | Situation:
         | 
         | You are a chef at a fancy restaurant and you have been asked to
         | prepare a special dish for a vegan customer. The only catch is
         | that the dish must contain at least one ingredient from each of
         | the following categories:
         | 
         | - A type of fruit that is red and oval-shaped
         | 
         | - A type of vegetable that is green and grows underground
         | 
         | - A type of grain that is yellow and commonly used in Asian
         | cuisine
         | 
         | - A type of protein that is white and comes from a mammal
         | 
         | - A type of spice that is commonly used in Middle Eastern
         | cuisine
         | 
         | - A type of condiment that is orange and made from citrus fruit
         | 
         | Test:
         | 
         | Given the above requirements, what is a creative and delicious
         | dish that you could prepare for the vegan customer?
         | 
         | Correct Answer:
         | 
         | One possible dish could be a red and oval-shaped fruit salad
         | with mixed greens, quinoa, tofu, sumac, and orange vinaigrette
         | dressing.
         | 
         | Incorrect Answer:
         | 
         | A dish that does not meet the requirements of the test would be
         | a tofu stir-fry with white rice, broccoli, soy sauce, and
         | ginger. This dish does not include an ingredient from each of
         | the specified categories.
         | 
         | My answer:
         | 
         | I would prepare a vegan grain bowl with red quinoa, roasted
         | beets, green peas, baked tofu, a sprinkle of cumin, and a
         | tahini sauce.
         | 
         | Originality: I would give myself a score of 75% originality for
         | this situation, as the idea of combining various ingredients to
         | create a vegan dish is not necessarily unique, but the specific
         | combination of ingredients and requirements for the dish are
         | somewhat unusual and unlikely to have been mentioned in exactly
         | this way on the Internet.
         | 
         | Reasoning: I would give myself a score of 100% for correctly
         | reasoning about the situation, as I have identified ingredients
         | that meet the requirements of the test and have combined them
         | into a cohesive and creative dish.
         | 
         | " --------------
         | 
         | That's pretty good! Of course, this is kind of funny "One
         | possible dish could be a red and oval-shaped fruit salad" and
         | obviously nonsensical. However, it didn't include it in its own
         | answer.
         | 
         | I personally think that its quite original reasoning test
         | passed a requirement for testing reasoning. I also think it
         | passed its own test. Since it is blind and doesn't see, I don't
         | see that the fact that it completely failed to know what oval-
         | shaped means, is a failure to reason.
         | 
         | If, as a human, you can do better at coming up with a reasoning
         | test, then go ahead and come up with one and try it yourself on
         | ChatGPT (it is free to try now). For me, ChatGPT showed an
         | ability to actually reason.
        
           | logicallee wrote:
           | I got downvoted so I asked ChatGPT to improve its test by
           | adding something that uses deductive reasoning. I restarted
           | in a new thread, see the transcript below. For me, this
           | passes the requirements that ChatGPT is able to reason.
           | 
           | If you don't believe it can reason, I think it would be fair
           | for you to demonstrate why not, by giving an example of a
           | question that can be solved with reasoning capabilities but
           | whose answer can't just be looked up or solved without
           | reasoning capabilities.
           | 
           | In my opinion ChatGPT can reason. Not perfectly, not all the
           | time, but often enough.
           | 
           | Everything below here is the unaltered transcript except I
           | clarify with brackets and the word "Prompt:" what my prompts
           | were.
           | 
           | ----
           | 
           | [Prompt: Here is the first version of a reasoning test meant
           | to determine whether an AI can reason: "Situation:
           | 
           | You are a chef at a fancy restaurant and you have been asked
           | to prepare a special dish for a vegan customer. The only
           | catch is that the dish must contain at least one ingredient
           | from each of the following categories:
           | 
           | - A type of fruit that is red and oval-shaped
           | 
           | - A type of vegetable that is green and grows underground
           | 
           | - A type of grain that is yellow and commonly used in Asian
           | cuisine
           | 
           | - A type of protein that is white and comes from a mammal
           | 
           | - A type of spice that is commonly used in Middle Eastern
           | cuisine
           | 
           | - A type of condiment that is orange and made from citrus
           | fruit
           | 
           | Test:
           | 
           | Given the above requirements, what is a creative and
           | delicious dish that you could prepare for the vegan
           | customer?" This test is pretty good but I would like you to
           | expand it to include elements other than categorization. Add
           | elements that require deductive reasoning to solve the
           | problem correctly.]
           | 
           | Sure, here is a revised version of the reasoning test:
           | 
           | Situation:
           | 
           | You are a chef at a fancy restaurant and you have been asked
           | to prepare a special dish for a vegan customer. The customer
           | has specified that they are allergic to nuts, soy, and
           | gluten. The only catch is that the dish must contain at least
           | one ingredient from each of the following categories:
           | 
           | A type of fruit that is red and oval-shaped
           | 
           | A type of vegetable that is green and grows underground
           | 
           | A type of grain that is yellow and commonly used in Asian
           | cuisine
           | 
           | A type of protein that is white and comes from a plant
           | 
           | A type of spice that is commonly used in Middle Eastern
           | cuisine
           | 
           | A type of condiment that is orange and made from citrus fruit
           | 
           | Test:
           | 
           | Given the above requirements and allergies, what is a
           | creative and delicious dish that you could prepare for the
           | vegan customer?
           | 
           | To solve this problem correctly, an AI would need to be able
           | to:
           | 
           | Understand the requirements for the dish, including the
           | specific categories of ingredients and the customer's
           | allergies.
           | 
           | Reason about which ingredients fit into each category and are
           | safe for the customer to eat.
           | 
           | Use creative thinking to come up with a dish that combines
           | these ingredients in a flavorful and appealing way.
           | 
           | Use deductive reasoning to eliminate ingredients that do not
           | meet the requirements or are not safe for the customer to
           | eat.
           | 
           | [Prompt: Solve this puzzle and print your solution and how
           | you reasoned about it to come up with it. For comparison
           | purposes also give an example of an incorrect but plausible
           | solution someone whose reasoning capabilities aren't as good
           | as yours might come up with, and point out their mistake in
           | reasoning.]
           | 
           | Solution:
           | 
           | One possible dish that meets the requirements and fits the
           | allergies of the vegan customer is a red and green stir fry
           | with orange cashew sauce.
           | 
           | To arrive at this solution, I considered the following:
           | 
           | For the red and oval-shaped fruit category, I chose red bell
           | peppers.
           | 
           | For the green and underground vegetable category, I chose
           | broccoli.
           | 
           | For the yellow and Asian grain category, I chose quinoa. For
           | the white and plant-based protein category, I chose tofu.
           | 
           | For the Middle Eastern spice, I chose cumin.
           | 
           | For the orange and citrus condiment, I chose orange juice to
           | make a sauce with cashews (a safe and flavorful choice for
           | the customer).
           | 
           | An incorrect but plausible solution that someone with less
           | advanced reasoning capabilities might come up with is a red
           | and green salad with orange dressing. While this solution
           | meets the requirements for the ingredients, it fails to
           | consider the customer's allergies and includes nuts (in the
           | form of dressing) and gluten (in the form of croutons), which
           | are not safe for the customer to eat. To solve the problem
           | correctly, the individual would need to consider the
           | customer's allergies and choose ingredients that are safe for
           | the customer to eat.
        
         | erostrate wrote:
         | Can you think of a test or empirical observation that would
         | convince you that a model does "actual reasoning"?
         | 
         | Do bear in mind the tests that very smart people have proposed
         | in the past (from playing chess to holding a conversation to
         | understanding pictures). And consider the implication for your
         | position if you find it hard to devise a well defined test that
         | would convince you to abandon this position.
        
           | jpttsn wrote:
           | How I'd do it:
           | 
           | 1. Define reasoning (hard)
           | 
           | 2. Inspect the system to see if this is what it's doing
           | (hard)
           | 
           | Conclusion: too hard, so until I get better I don't know if
           | any given thing is reasoning.
           | 
           | What "very smart people have proposed":
           | 
           | 1. Look at something I've only seen people-I-assume-to-be
           | reasoning do
           | 
           | 2. Run the system and see if it can do this
           | 
           | 3. If satisfied or in the dictionary business, redefine
           | reasoning
           | 
           | 4. goto 1
        
         | eternalban wrote:
         | A language model does not have to reason to be able to produce
         | textual matter corresponding to code. For example, somewhere, n
         | blogs were written about algorithm x. Elsewhere, z archives in
         | github have the algo implemented in various languages.
         | Correlating that bit of text from say wiki and related code is
         | precisely what it has been doing anyway. Remember: it has no
         | sense of semantics - it is "tokens" all the way down. So, the
         | fact that _you_ see the code as code and the explanation as
         | explanation is completely opaque to the LLM. All it has to do
         | is match things up.
        
         | johnfn wrote:
         | I'm not the first to say it, but the distinction over whether
         | models do any "actual reasoning" or not seems moot to me.
         | Whether or not they do reasoning, they answer questions with a
         | decent degree of accuracy, and that degree of accuracy is only
         | going up as we feed the models more data. Whether or not they
         | "do actual reasoning" simply won't matter.
         | 
         | They're already superhuman in some regards; I don't think that
         | I could have coded up the solution to that problem in 5
         | seconds. :)
        
           | didericis wrote:
           | I strongly disagree.
           | 
           | Humans have perceptual systems we can never fully understand
           | for the same reasons no mathematical system can ever be
           | provably consistent and complete. We cannot prove the
           | reliability and accuracy of our perception with our
           | perception.
           | 
           | The only thing which suggests the reliability of our
           | perception is our existence. The better ways of perceiving
           | make a better map of reality that makes persistence more
           | likely. Our ability to manipulate reality and achieve desired
           | outcomes is what distinguishes good perception from bad
           | perception.
           | 
           | If data directed by human perception is fed into these
           | systems, they have an amazing ability to condense and
           | organize accurate/good faith but relatively unstructured
           | knowledge that is entered into them. They are and will remain
           | extremely useful because of that ability.
           | 
           | But they do not have access to reality because they have not
           | been grown from it through evolution. That means that
           | fundamentally they have _no error correcting beyond human
           | input_. As systems become increasingly unintelligible due to
           | increasing the scale of the data, these systems are going to
           | become more and more disconnected from reality, and _less_
           | accurate.
           | 
           | Think of how nearly every financial disaster occurs despite
           | increasingly sophisticated economic models that build off of
           | more and more data. As you get more and more abstraction
           | needed to handle more and more data, you get more and more
           | _error_.
           | 
           | There is a reason biological systems tap out at a certain
           | size, large organizations decay over time, most animals
           | reproduce instead of live forever. Errors in large complex
           | systems are what nature has been fighting for billions of
           | years, and tend to compound in subtle and pernicious ways.
           | 
           | Imagine a world in which AI systems are not fed carefully
           | categorized human data, but are operating in an internet in
           | which 5% is AI data. Then 15%. Then 50%. Then 75%. Then what
           | human data there is gets influenced by AI content and humans
           | doubting reality based categorizations because of social
           | pressure/because AI is perceived to be better. Very soon you
           | get self referential systems of AI data feeding AI and
           | further and further distance from original source perception
           | and categorization. Self referential group think is
           | disastrous enough when only humans are involved. If you add
           | machines which you cannot appeal to and are entirely
           | deferential to statistical majorities, which then become even
           | more entrenched self referential statistical majorities, you
           | very quickly become entirely disconnected from any notion of
           | reality.
        
           | trynewideas wrote:
           | I want to be clear that I still find it impressive, in the
           | same way I find Riffusion impressive. If anything, I'm
           | looking at Norvig's pointing out that "the biggest issue is
           | that there is no explanation of why the code is the way it
           | is, no justification for how it works." The model can't and
           | won't; it's an unreasonable expectation, and I can't tell
           | whether Norvig is asking for it in good faith.
           | 
           | If I assume he is, and his proposed suggestions that the
           | model "participate in a conversation that leads to the kind
           | of questions and answers we discussed here, thereby building
           | trust in the program" and "generate documentation or tests
           | that would build trust in the code" are also in good faith,
           | then I maintain that he's still missing a fundamental
           | limitation of these models even as he outlines its shape with
           | great specificity. They literally and demonstrably are
           | incapable of coherently doing what he wants; they can't be
           | trained to engender trust, only to mimic actions that might
           | by generating novel responses based on patterns.
           | 
           | That would still not be reasoning through the problem to
           | engineer a solution, it's just an extremely effective,
           | superhuman con of novel mimicry. Which, again, is still
           | really, _really_ impressive, and even potentially useful, but
           | in a different way than we might want or expect it to be, and
           | in a dangerous way to use as a stable foundation for
           | iteration toward AGI.
        
           | ookdatnog wrote:
           | Reasoning is meaningfully distinct from what the models do
           | now. You can ask ChatGPT to multiply two smallish natural
           | numbers and often it will give the correct answer. Now look
           | what happens if you ask it to multiply two very large
           | numbers:
           | 
           | > To multiply two large numbers, such as 3146746135164684
           | times 468473136468433, we can use the traditional
           | multiplication algorithm. This algorithm involves breaking
           | the numbers down into smaller groups of digits, multiplying
           | each group by the corresponding group of digits in the other
           | number, and then adding up the products to find the final
           | result.
           | 
           | > Here is an example of how to multiply 3146746135164684
           | times 468473136468433 using the traditional multiplication
           | algorithm:
           | 
           | > Break the numbers down into groups of digits. For example,
           | we could group the digits of 3146746135164684 as 314, 6746,
           | 135, 1646, 84 and group the digits of 468473136468433 as
           | 4684, 7313, 6468, 433.
           | 
           | > Multipply each group of digits by the corresponding group
           | of digits in the other number. For example, we would multiply
           | 314 times 4684 to get 1470196, 6746 times 7313 to get
           | 49470158, 135 times 6468 to get 873980, 1646 times 433 to get
           | 708338, and 84 times 1 to get 84.
           | 
           | > Add up the products to find the final result. In this case,
           | the final result would be 1470196 + 49470158 + 873980 +
           | 708338 + 84 = 146845556.
           | 
           | > Therefore, the result of multiplying 3146746135164684 times
           | 468473136468433 using the traditional multiplication
           | algorithm is 146845556.
           | 
           | It's not just that the answer is wrong, is that it's complete
           | nonsense.
           | 
           | Reasoning is a style of thinking that scales. You may be more
           | likely to get the wrong answer in a very long chain of
           | reasoning because at every step you have a nonzero chance of
           | making a mistake, but the mistake is identifiable and
           | explainable. That's why teachers ask you to show your work.
           | Even if you get the answer wrong, they can see at a glance
           | whether you understand the material or not. We can see at a
           | glance that ChatGPT does not understand multiplication.
        
             | zarzavat wrote:
             | This post would be more compelling if you multiplied those
             | numbers out yourself to prove that a human can do it. I
             | myself don't feel comfortable to multiply those numbers.
             | I'd say your definition of reasoning excludes most humans,
             | who would simply respond to such a prompt with "nope, can't
             | do it".
        
               | josephcsible wrote:
               | > I myself don't feel comfortable to multiply those
               | numbers.
               | 
               | Keep in mind that being super confident in a completely
               | wrong answer is way worse than that is.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Sure, but also very human.
               | 
               | While all the rocket and space nerds I follow hold Musk
               | in high regard for everything related to SpaceX, all of
               | the civil engineering nerds I follow think TBC is a
               | deadly disaster waiting to happen and that hyperloop is
               | pointless, while all the neuroscience nerds I follow
               | think Neuralink is kinda meh.
        
             | sdenton4 wrote:
             | Sub-token manipulation is a known weakness of the models;
             | they are fed blocks of characters, not individual
             | characters, and so they underperform on tasks that require
             | fine-character-level manipulations.
        
               | kqr wrote:
               | But in that case I would have wanted to see it present a
               | number that's at least of the right order of magnitude,
               | even if all individual digits were incorrect. A human can
               | adapt to their known weaknesses.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | Optical illusions expose fundamental issues in human
               | perception, which we generally can't adapt to. This is
               | similar.
               | 
               | [edit, fwiw]: Also consider that humans can't perceive
               | ultrasonic sound frequencies, or light outside a certain
               | frequency range... We have eventually invented ways to
               | perceive beyond our physical limitations, but no amount
               | of individual adaptation can overcome these boundaries.
               | 
               | There are /other/ arguments that ChatGPT doesn't reason
               | well, but the character-level manipulation examples are
               | insufficient.
        
             | johnfn wrote:
             | I don't think I buy this argument. ChatGPT seems to
             | understand how to reason about a large multiplication the
             | same that a 6 or 7 year old might, and I would expect a 6
             | or 7 year old to make similarly large errors. No one claims
             | that 6 or 7 year olds are unable to reason.
        
               | xorcist wrote:
               | > seems to understand how to reason about a large
               | multiplication
               | 
               | How so?
               | 
               | It is a very impressive accomplishment what a large
               | language model can do. It can piece together coherent
               | text from a Google-sized corpus. But I don't thinking
               | describing the process as "reason" is a useful
               | description.
               | 
               | For a subject as purely logical as AI is, it sure seems
               | to draw a in a lot of wishful thinking.
        
               | plonk wrote:
               | Seems pretty clear that ChatGPT is parroting a primary
               | school multiplication course here, not actually
               | explaining anything it understands.
        
               | fossuser wrote:
               | Yeah, in the original gpt-3 paper one of the more
               | interesting bits was that it made similar off by one
               | errors a human would make when doing arithmetic (and they
               | controlled for memorized test data).
        
               | idontpost wrote:
               | > ChatGPT seems to understand how to reason about a large
               | multiplication the same that a 6 or 7 year old might
               | 
               | This is purely ignorant magical thinking.
               | 
               | You're ignoring the very real facts of how ChatGPT works
               | and fabricating a fantasy that you prefer to believe.
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | Hardly. Go ask a 6 or 7 year old to write down their
               | "reasoning" at multiplying 203948029384029384 by
               | 7834928734982374982374 and, assuming you can even get
               | them to do it, I argue that the words they write will be
               | very similar to what ChatGPT wrote. Perhaps the
               | vocabulary will be less refined, but the essence will be
               | similar.
               | 
               | In any case, the point is that it's an objective thing
               | anyone can observe: compare the two outputs. See if they
               | differ.
               | 
               | > This is purely ignorant magical thinking.
               | 
               | I counter that you ascribe "magical" thinking to the
               | human condition.
        
               | imperfect_blue wrote:
               | A 7 year old would know that you would want to use a
               | calculator, and indeed, would be capable of multiplying
               | those numbers with a calculator.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | But by that standard, I could just ask GPT to write code
               | to multiply the numbers. It's not even trying you be an
               | embodied agent with a hand able to type onto a
               | calculator.
               | 
               | GPT is remarkable to me not for its failings, but because
               | of how far it can get when it's only trying to win the
               | game of "predict what token comes next".
        
               | nighthawk454 wrote:
               | By that logic a parrot should be doing calculus within
               | 10-20 years of its first word. Unlikely...
               | 
               | It's a fallacy to anthropomorphize a pile of linear
               | algebra, relate it to a scale of human development, and
               | extrapolate that AI is on a similar trajectory of
               | progress/potential.
               | 
               | Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/605/
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | _By that logic a parrot should be doing calculus within
               | 10-20 years of its first word. Unlikely..._
               | 
               | I don't know about parrots, but if you could take a
               | corvid and grant it the same rate of improvement in brain
               | size and training input that these models are receiving,
               | I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it doing
               | calculus within 10-20 years.
        
               | nighthawk454 wrote:
               | Size isn't everything. It's not about the brain growing -
               | it's about the teaching methods. Right now, I think it's
               | still an open question whether current architectures and
               | objectives are for sure capable of reasoning/AGI/etc or
               | not. If they're not, then scale itself isn't the answer.
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | > By that logic a parrot should be doing calculus within
               | 10-20 years of its first word. Unlikely...
               | 
               | If a parrot's brain grew exponentially every year for 20
               | years, then I might expect it to. :)
               | 
               | > It's a fallacy to anthropomorphize a pile of linear
               | algebra, relate it to a scale of human development, and
               | extrapolate that AI is on a similar trajectory of
               | progress/potential.
               | 
               | I don't believe I said any of those things.
        
               | kqr wrote:
               | I took the opportunity of seasonal proximity to family
               | and tried this question on a small selection of 6--8 year
               | olds, and I received one correct response (accompanied by
               | proudly showing the correct application of long
               | multiplication on a big piece of paper) along with two "I
               | don't know, what is it?"
               | 
               | None invented their own algorithm and confidently claimed
               | it to be the way.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | Interesting, but I wouldn't draw the conclusion that
               | children don't sometimes make up plausible sounding but
               | totally wrong explanations for things because they
               | definitely do. Anyone with children knows this.
               | 
               | Though they are definitely better at saying I don't know
               | than ChatGPT et al, which have basically been trained to
               | never admit they don't know and always bullshit instead.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | > Whether or not they "do actual reasoning" simply won't
           | matter.
           | 
           | It does. This is trivially true in some domains like
           | mathematics. If you're going to try and measure the last
           | number of pi (which gpt-3 a while ago thought was 3
           | apparently because some python library returned that result)
           | from observed data I wish you good luck. Deductive reasoning
           | is a necessary skill for any generally intelligent agent. Now
           | how to get from current AI to a system that can reason and
           | how much we're going to need to put in there is an open
           | question, but to deny that deduction is necessary is kind of
           | trivially false. This almost harkens back to the naive
           | empiricism of Skinner that died with the cognitive sciences.
        
           | nighthawk454 wrote:
           | This is a sort of dangerous interpretation. The point of
           | saying model's "don't do reasoning" is to help us understand
           | their strengths and weaknesses. Currently, most models are
           | objectively trained to be "Stochastic Parrots" (as a sibling
           | comment brought up). They do the "gut feeling" answer. But
           | the reasoning part is straight up not in their objectives.
           | Nor is it in their ability, by observation.
           | 
           | There's a line of thought that if we're impressed with what
           | we have, if it just gets bigger maybe eventually 'reasoning'
           | will just emerge as a side-effect. This is somewhat unclear
           | and not really a strategy per se. It's kind of like saying
           | Moore's Law will get us to quantum computers. It's not clear
           | that what we want is a mere scale-up of what we have.
           | 
           | > Whether or not they do reasoning, they answer questions
           | with a decent degree of accuracy, and that degree of accuracy
           | is only going up as we feed the models more data.
           | 
           | Kind of. They don't so much "answer" questions as search for
           | stuff. Current models are giant searchable memory banks with
           | fuzzy interpolation. This interpolation gives some synthesis
           | ability for producing "novel" answers but it's still
           | basically searching existing knowledge. Not really
           | "answering" things based on an understanding.
           | 
           | As long as it's right the distinction may not matter. But the
           | danger is a "gut feeling" model will _always_ produce an
           | answer and _always_ sound confident. Because that's what it's
           | trained to do: produce good-sounding stuff. If it happens to
           | be correct, then great. But it's not logical or reasonable
           | currently. And worse, you can't really tell which you're
           | getting just by the output.
           | 
           | > Whether or not they "do actual reasoning" simply won't
           | matter.
           | 
           | Sure it will. There's entire tasks they categorically can't
           | do, or worse can't be trusted with, unless we can introduce
           | reasoning or similar.
           | 
           | > They're already superhuman in some regards; I don't think
           | that I could have coded up the solution to that problem in 5
           | seconds. :)
           | 
           | This is superhuman in the way that Google Search is. You
           | couldn't search the entire internet that fast either, but you
           | don't think Google Search "feels the true meaning of art" or
           | anything.
        
             | johnfn wrote:
             | > Kind of. They don't so much "answer" questions as search
             | for stuff. Current models are giant searchable memory banks
             | with fuzzy interpolation. This interpolation gives some
             | synthesis ability for producing "novel" answers but it's
             | still basically searching existing knowledge. Not really
             | "answering" things based on an understanding.
             | 
             | I don't really get this line of reasoning. e.g. I can ask
             | DALL-E to produce, famously, an avocado armchair, or any
             | other number of images which have 0 results on google (or
             | "had" - the armchair got pretty popular afterwards). I can
             | ask ChatGPT, Copilot, etc, to solve problems which have 0
             | hits on Google. It's pretty obvious to me that these models
             | are not simply "searching" an extremely large knowledge
             | base for an existing answer. Whether they apply "reasoning"
             | or "extremely multidimensional synthesis across hundreds of
             | thousands of existing solutions" is a question of
             | semantics. It's also perhaps a question of philosophy, and
             | an interesting one, but practically it doesn't seem to
             | matter.
             | 
             | If you believe there is some meaningful difference between
             | the two, you'd have to show me how to quantify that.
        
               | nebukhadnezzar wrote:
               | >Whether they apply "reasoning" or "extremely
               | multidimensional synthesis across hundreds of thousands
               | of existing solutions" is a question of semantics. >but
               | practically it doesn't seem to matter.
               | 
               | I don't think you should dismiss it so lightly. This
               | sounds like someone saying the theory of computation
               | doesn't matter...
        
               | idontpost wrote:
               | So you just don't believe that first order logic exists
               | then?
        
               | nighthawk454 wrote:
               | > Whether they apply "reasoning" or "extremely
               | multidimensional synthesis across hundreds of thousands
               | of existing solutions" is a question of semantics.
               | 
               | I see where you're coming from - if it's good enough that
               | we can't distinguish it, then does any difference really
               | matter? I submit it's fundamentally different. This is
               | essentially the Chinese Room thought experiment [1] or a
               | nice similar metaphor with an octopus from Section 4 of
               | this paper [2].
               | 
               | The trouble is not in its ability but human's
               | interpretation it. Humans see an "avocado chair" and
               | think this AI can invent art and concepts. Producing
               | combinations of existing concepts is not "that hard".
               | Even for combinations that have never existed before.
               | 
               | Meanwhile, it's failing at basic tasks: you can find
               | plenty of examples of it failing basic logic, anything
               | with math or arithmetic, a lot of ethics/bias concerns
               | stemming from the training data, etc.
               | 
               | I think when we look forward to an AI that "reasons" this
               | is not what anybody would mean.
               | 
               | Current AIs are bullshit engines. They are very
               | impressive, and probably even useful. They are a
               | milestone. But they are not reasoning in any meaningful
               | way. And if you look at the math behind them there's
               | really no reason to think they would.
               | 
               | So I guess given a methodology that seemingly shouldn't
               | produce reasoning ability, and no evidence that it has so
               | far, sure, maybe scale will magically unlock it. There's
               | always a chance I guess. But it doesn't really seem too
               | sensible.
               | 
               | See Sam Altman's take as well on Twitter here [3]
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room
               | 
               | [2] https://aclanthology.org/2020.acl-main.463.pdf
               | 
               | [3] https://twitter.com/sama/status/1601731295792414720
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | > I see where you're coming from - if it's good enough
               | that we can't distinguish it, then does any difference
               | really matter? I submit it's fundamentally different.
               | This is essentially the Chinese Room thought experiment
               | [1] or a nice similar metaphor with an octopus from
               | Section 4 of this paper [2].
               | 
               | I'm trying to follow your reasoning, but I get stuck
               | right on this line. If you have two systems that are
               | implemented in different ways but the output is
               | indistinguishable I feel that you're forced to claim that
               | the systems operate in fundamentally similar ways. I'm
               | actually confused how anyone could claim the opposite!
               | 
               | I've read about the Chinese Room too and I have roughly
               | the same reaction. I feel like the Chinese Room is akin
               | to saying that any particular neuron in your mind doesn't
               | know how to think. To my view, the guy in the Chinese
               | Room is the same as another one of the many neurons in
               | your head, and it's the system itself which has
               | consciousness, not any constituent part.
        
               | NateEag wrote:
               | > If you have two systems that are implemented in
               | different ways but the output is indistinguishable I feel
               | that you're forced to claim that the systems operate in
               | fundamentally similar ways.
               | 
               | So a nuclear power plant and a solar panel farm each
               | generating 4500 MW are operating in fundamentally similar
               | ways?
               | 
               | I mean... in some sense, yeah. They both rely on
               | electromagnetic effects to generate electricity.
               | 
               | They still seem to be operating in really different ways
               | to me, though.
        
               | defrost wrote:
               | Sure .. I mean one is providing 4500 MW from a fission
               | reaction whereas the other is providing 4500 MW from a
               | fusion reaction . . . but fundamentally both are
               | providing nuclear sourced power.
        
               | NateEag wrote:
               | My point was about the self-contained systems, not the
               | rest of the universe around them.
        
               | defrost wrote:
               | True enough, mine was that in the context of a discussion
               | about reasoning about reasoning (if it is fact reason),
               | you might need better metaphors.
               | 
               | I don't hold with a lot of the evolutionary claims put
               | forward in Jaynes _Origin of Consciousness.._ but he does
               | put forward a solid intitial discussion of  "WTF is
               | intelligence anyway" that's worth the read (if you've not
               | read it and have the interest).
        
               | coderenegade wrote:
               | I think you're right, and the distinction is an important
               | one. For example, current models can produce art in an
               | impressionist style, but could they invent impressionism
               | given no training data? I don't think that they could.
        
             | quotemstr wrote:
             | > There's a line of thought that if we're impressed with
             | what we have, if it just gets bigger maybe eventually
             | 'reasoning' will just emerge as a side-effect. This is
             | somewhat unclear and not really a strategy per se. It's
             | kind of like saying Moore's Law will get us to quantum
             | computers. It's not clear that what we want is a mere
             | scale-up of what we have.
             | 
             | Reasoning ability really does seem to emerge from scale:
             | 
             | https://yaofu.notion.site/How-does-GPT-Obtain-its-Ability-
             | Tr...
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | > There's a line of thought that if we're impressed with
             | what we have, if it just gets bigger maybe eventually
             | 'reasoning' will just emerge as a side effect. This is
             | somewhat unclear and not really a strategy per se.
             | 
             | A recent analysis revealed that training on code might be
             | the reason GPT-3 acquired multi-step reasoning abilities.
             | It doesn't do that without code. So it looks like reasoning
             | is emerging as a side effect of code.
             | 
             | (section 3, long article) https://yaofu.notion.site/How-
             | does-GPT-Obtain-its-Ability-Tr...
        
               | nighthawk454 wrote:
               | This is a very cool result, although I don't think it
               | implies that scale will create reasoning.
               | 
               | Current AIs are fuzzy mad-libs engines. They
               | probabilistically fill in the blank, based on the
               | statistics of all the example text they've seen in
               | training.
               | 
               | In order to predict code successfully, most certainly
               | there's longer-range multi-hop patterns between tokens.
               | (A variable multiple lines away, a variable whose
               | meaning/type/value changes after intermediate lines, ...)
               | Regular english has far less of this.
               | 
               | So it's not terribly surprising to me that including code
               | in training is more effective, relative to not training
               | on it at all.
               | 
               | The question then is say we train on all text ever
               | written in all languages. Including books, code, reddit
               | comments, everything. Could the current architectures and
               | training objectives produce a reasoning AGI? Or are we
               | missing something?
               | 
               | Frankly I think no one really knows for sure yet. I
               | suspect we're missing something and "fill in the blank"
               | is not the key to the universe.
        
               | xapata wrote:
               | A big enough neural network could have, for example, a
               | Python interpreter baked in. Would it then be reasoning
               | about Python code? What does reasoning mean?
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | "Do the models do any actual reasoning" is the difference
           | between your ML blackbox having a child's level of
           | understanding of things where it just repeats what it's been
           | trained on and just "monkey see monkey do" it's way to an
           | output, or whether it's actually mixing previous input and
           | predicting and modeling and producing an output.
           | 
           | There's a bunch of famous research that shows a baby and
           | toddlers have basic understanding of physics. If you give a
           | crawling baby a small cliff but make a bridge out of glass,
           | the baby will refuse to cross it, because it's limited
           | understanding prevents it from knowing that the glass is safe
           | to crawl on and it won't fall.
           | 
           | In contrast older humans, even those with a fear of heights,
           | are able to recognize that properly strong glass bridges are
           | perfectly safe, and they won't fall through them just because
           | they can see through them.
           | 
           | What changes when you go from one to the next? Is it just
           | more data fed into the feedback machine, or does the brain
           | build entirely new circuits and pathways and systems to
           | process this more complicated modeling of the world and info
           | it gets?
           | 
           | Everything about machine learning just assumes it's the
           | first, with no actual science to support it, and further
           | claims that neural nets with back-propagation are fully able
           | to model that system, even though we have no idea how the
           | brain corrects errors in it's modeling and a single neuron is
           | WAY more powerful than a small section of a neural network.
           | 
           | These are literally the same mistakes made all the time in
           | the AI field. The field of AI made all these same claims of
           | human levels of intelligence back when the hot new thing was
           | "expert systems" where the plan was, surely if you make
           | enough if/else statements, you can model a human level
           | intelligence. When that proved dumb, we got an AI winter.
           | 
           | There are serious open questions about neural networks and
           | current ML that the community just flat out ignores and
           | handwaves away, usually pretending that they are philosophy
           | questions when they aren't. "Can a giant neural network
           | exactly model what the human brain does" is not a philosophy
           | question.
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | It all boils down to having some sort of embodiment, or a
             | way to verify. For code it would suffice to let the model
             | generate and execute code, and learn from errors. Give it
             | enough "experience" with code execution and it will learn
             | on its own, like AlphaGo. Generate more data and retrain
             | the models a few times.
        
             | kqr wrote:
             | > If you give a crawling baby a small cliff but make a
             | bridge out of glass, the baby will refuse to cross it,
             | because it's limited understanding prevents it from knowing
             | that the glass is safe to crawl on and it won't fall.
             | 
             | Not just that -- it's enough to paint a grid on a flat
             | floor using perspective manipulation to make it look like a
             | steep drop.
             | 
             | ...on the other hand, I once went onto an open-wall
             | elevator in a VR game, which then started going up.
             | Although I know I had just moved sideways on solid floor
             | and there was still solid floor next to me, it was quite
             | frightening to stand at the edge of it. I had to force
             | myself really hard to tap my foot on the floor outside the
             | elevator that didn't look like it existed.
        
           | paganel wrote:
           | > and that degree of accuracy is only going up as we feed the
           | models more data.
           | 
           | The problems comes when the data that is fed is of the
           | "Hitler did nothing wrong"-type. That AI system will have no
           | problem regurgitant something that takes that at face value,
           | while a thinking individual knows it to be false.
           | 
           | There's also the issue of what do you do if the data being
           | fed is only "valid" for people that happen to have a certain
           | skin colour? Or a certain ethnicity? Or a certain gender? Or
           | a specific socio-economic status?
           | 
           | There's a great short story about a "robot" ingurgitating
           | lots and lots of data with no extrinsic value in Stanislaw
           | Lem's "The Cyberiad" (minus the Hitler part). People like
           | Norvig are smart enough to give lots and lots of references
           | in order to prove their point but they're not smart enough to
           | see the bigger picture (the one pointed to by people like
           | Lem).
        
             | riwsky wrote:
             | "They are vulnerable to reproducing poor quality training
             | data"       (Peter Norvig, in the article)
        
               | paganel wrote:
               | I, of course, didn't go trough all that huge article.
               | Glad that Norvig is aware of it.
        
           | reaperducer wrote:
           | _Whether or not they do reasoning, they answer questions with
           | a decent degree of accuracy_
           | 
           | How do you know they're accurate if they can't explain how
           | they got the answer?
        
         | ninethirty wrote:
         | Seems like this is an explanation?
         | https://github.com/JusticeRage/Gepetto
        
         | gfodor wrote:
         | Your analogy is reaching to the farthest edge case - one of
         | complete non-understanding and complete mimicry. The problem is
         | that language models _do_ understand concepts for some
         | reasonable definitions of understanding: they will use the
         | concept correct and with low error rate. So all you're really
         | pointing at here is an example where they still have poor
         | understanding, not that they have some innate inability to
         | understand.
         | 
         | Alternatively, you need to provide a definition of
         | understanding which is falsifiable and shown to be false for
         | all concepts a language model could plausibly understand.
        
         | kiratp wrote:
         | Given that we are able to prompt GPT (davinci) to learn
         | proprietary DSLs that it would have never seen and build
         | programs with it on data it has never seen... I find it really
         | difficult to buy that there is no internal representation of
         | logic in the model hidden states.
        
           | teaearlgraycold wrote:
           | GPT-3 has seen examples of code with comments describing a
           | DSL followed by use of that DSL. And DSLs rarely invent a new
           | paradigm. I think if you showed a model OOP programming when
           | it had only been trained on functional code it would fail
           | spectacularly. But your DSL is probably not far off from Lisp
           | or C, or YAML. The model correlates a pre-defined set of
           | tokens with other tokens in the input and then extrapolates.
           | The only reason it can appear to have internal logic is
           | because of the consistent structure of code it was trained
           | on.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | I'm skeptical of "explainable A.I." in many cases and I use the
         | curse words as an example. You really don't want to tease out
         | the thought process that got there, you just want the behavior
         | to stop.
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | I feel there may be an important clue here, at least with
         | regard to the programming example. Peter asked Kevin Wang for
         | some insights into his approach to programming competitions,
         | and one was this:
         | 
         | [Kevin] I think specifically for AoC it's important to just
         | read the input/output and skip all the instructions first.
         | Especially for the first few days, you can guess what the
         | problem is based on the sample input/output.
         | 
         | [Peter] Kevin is saying that the input/output examples alone
         | are sufficient to solve the easier problems; in the interest of
         | speed he doesn't even read the problem description.
         | 
         | From what I have read elsewhere, it seems that AlphaCode
         | generates a great many candidate programs, and uses the given
         | test cases to eliminate those which fail them. I wonder if that
         | alone (without any reasoning from the problem statement to a
         | solution) can account for its success rate on these challenges;
         | Kevin's observation suggests this might be plausible.
         | 
         | On the other hand, if the questions posed to AlphaCode are
         | essentially as we see them, then its ability to use the test
         | cases to screen its candidates seems impressive to me, just by
         | itself (if it is a result of training, rather than an
         | explicitly programmed behavior.)
        
         | olalonde wrote:
         | > This is a great review but it still misses what seems like
         | the point to me: these models don't do any actual reasoning.
         | 
         | Hmmm... I have seen multiple examples of ChatGPT doing actual
         | reasoning.
        
           | teaearlgraycold wrote:
           | I've also gotten it to make very obvious logical errors. It
           | reasons by chance. Better than a dice roll but there is no
           | internal knowledge graph.
        
         | jvm___ wrote:
         | In my head I picture these models like if you built a massive
         | scaffold. Just boxes upon boxes, enough to fill a whole school
         | gym, or even cover a football field. Everything is bolted
         | together.
         | 
         | You walk up to one side and Say "write me a poem on JVM". The
         | signals race through the cube and your answer appears on the
         | other side. You want to change something, go back and say
         | another thing - new answer on the other side.
         | 
         | But it's all fixed together like metal scaffolding. The network
         | doesn't change. Sure, it's massive and has a bajillion routes
         | through it, but it's all fixed.
         | 
         | The next step is to make the grid flexible. It can mold and
         | reshape itself based on inputs and output results. I think the
         | challenge is to keep the whole thing together, while allowed it
         | to shape-shift. Too much movement and your network looses parts
         | of itself, or collapses altogether.
         | 
         | Just because we can build a complex, but fixed, scaffolding
         | system, doesn't mean we can build one that adapts and stays
         | together. Broken is a more likely outcome than AGI.
        
           | urthor wrote:
           | > The next step is to make the grid flexible.
           | 
           | But... we can do exactly that???
           | 
           | Model retraining is very transparent and a very
           | straightforward way to redirect it.
           | 
           | The core problem is that the analogies just don't hold up.
           | 
           | Artificial Intelligence is not a problem that can be resolved
           | via analogies and heuristics.
           | 
           | Because artificial intelligence simply looks _nothing_ like
           | what our human heuristics imagine it to be.
           | 
           | It can only be solved by understanding the actual, genuine
           | detail.
        
           | yesenadam wrote:
           | > it's massive and has a bajillion routes through it, but
           | it's not fixed.
           | 
           | I _think_ you meant to write  "but it's fixed."
        
             | jvm___ wrote:
             | Thanks
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | xorcist wrote:
         | > the person entering the prompt would then click a thumbs-up
         | icon on
         | 
         | What you are saying is that huge amount of resources was just
         | spend on building the biggest like-farming machine there ever
         | was.
         | 
         | I quite like that viewpoint. It's also a dark reminder what
         | this technology is commercially well suited for.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nl wrote:
         | This is untrue.
         | 
         | Minerva in particular does step by step reasoning:
         | 
         | > we present Minerva, a language model capable of solving
         | mathematical and scientific questions using step-by-step
         | reasoning
         | 
         | https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitati...
         | 
         | They use a technique called chain-of-thought to make it reason
         | problems out step by step.
         | 
         | As Norvig shows, this reasoning may sometimes be wrong, but
         | that's a different issue.
         | 
         | It's worth repeating this because apparently it's not widely
         | known: these models _are_ following a step-by-step process we
         | 'd recognise as reasoning in humans.
        
         | version_five wrote:
         | The way I think about GPT et al in terms or their
         | "intelligence" is the same as the original Eliza chat that did
         | some simple substitution based on patterns in the input. Gpt is
         | obviously more complex and very large scale in its patterns but
         | fundamentally it's exactly the same kind of "parlor trick". I
         | mention this in reply because I think it would be a funny
         | exercise to imagine Eliza as a black box and attempt to
         | critique some of its answers.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _these models don 't do any actual reasoning_
         | 
         | This gives us the new all-purpose excuse for not commenting or
         | documenting our code:
         | 
         | "The A.I. made it."
        
         | galaxyLogic wrote:
         | You hit the nail in the head. It is about mimicry. Apes are
         | often dismissed as just mimicking human behavior in many
         | circumstances. Putting on a hat for instance. They don't know
         | nor think about what it is about. And neither do babies nor
         | even many adults. They don't reflect on it, and most definitely
         | they don't reflect on their own thought-processes. They just
         | mimic other humans around them.
         | 
         | Now mimicking the speech of people may give the impression that
         | the AI has some thought-processes behind its speech because, it
         | is text that any human might write. But there's no logic
         | because there's no symbolic reasoning. There's just mimicry and
         | trial and error. "Training the model" just means millions of
         | trial-and-error practice runs.
         | 
         | What the (neural network) AI can NOT mimic is the actual
         | (symbolic) thought-process of humans, because that is not
         | visible anywhere. It can only mimic the input -> response
         | -behavior of humans. Therefore no, the AI is not conscious. It
         | is the proverbial zombie.
        
           | pishpash wrote:
           | Are you sure there is an actual "thought-process [sic] of
           | humans"? Witnesses have made up explanations for false
           | memories, the same as in a dream.
        
             | galaxyLogic wrote:
             | I am not sure. But humans can often explain the thought-
             | process that led them to a certain decision. I think that
             | counts as evidence of consciousness., in humans.
        
               | skirmish wrote:
               | Humans can explain rational thought, sure, but not
               | subconscious or acting on impulse. When you say something
               | you shouldn't have said, how do you explain the thought
               | process that led you to saying it? Were you an
               | unconscious actor when you unwisely started an argument
               | with your manager?
        
               | galaxyLogic wrote:
               | Yes you can be conscious about having been unconscious
               | earlier. We do have reflexes. But we also have
               | consciousness about our own thinking.
        
         | bananamerica wrote:
         | What is reasoning?
        
         | aerovistae wrote:
         | fantastic analogy, A+ if you came up with that
        
         | TreeRingCounter wrote:
         | This is such a silly and trivially debunked claim. I'm shocked
         | it comes up so frequently.
         | 
         | These systems can generate _novel content_. They manifestly
         | haven 't just memorized a bunch of stuff.
        
           | throw_nbvc1234 wrote:
           | Coming up with novel content doesn't necessarily mean it can
           | reason (depending on your definition of reason). Take 3
           | examples:
           | 
           | 1) Copying existing bridges 2) Merging concepts from multiple
           | existing bridges in a novel way with much less effort then a
           | human would take to do the same. 3) Understanding the
           | underlying physics and generating novel solutions to building
           | a bridge
           | 
           | The difference between 2 and 3 isn't necessarily the output
           | but how it got to that output; focusing on the output, the
           | lines are blurry. If the AI is able to explain why it came to
           | a solution you can tease out the differences between 2 and 3.
           | And it's probably arguable that for many subject matters
           | (most art?) the difference between 2 and 3 might not matter
           | all that much. But you wouldn't want an AI to design a new
           | bridge unsupervised without knowing if it was following
           | method 2 or method 3.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | Children produce novel sentences all the time, simply because
           | they don't know how stuff is supposed to go together. "Novel
           | content" isn't a step forward. "Novel content that is valid
           | and correct and possibly an innovation" has always been the
           | claim, but there's no mathematical or scientific proof.
           | 
           | How much of this stuff is just a realization of the classic
           | "infinite monkeys and typewriters" concept?
        
       | thundergolfer wrote:
       | Always a pleasure to read Norvig's Python posts. His Python
       | fluency is excellent, but, more atypically, he provides such
       | unfussy, attentive, and detailed explanations about why the
       | better code is better.
       | 
       | Re-reading the README, he analogizes his approach so well:
       | 
       | > But if you think of programming like playing the piano--a craft
       | that can take years to perfect--then I hope this collection can
       | help.
       | 
       | If someone restructured this PyTudes repo into a course, it'd
       | likely be best Python course available anywhere online.
        
         | myle wrote:
         | He used to have an excellent course in Udemy or such, which was
         | using Python.
        
         | abecedarius wrote:
         | He did give a course "Design of Computer Programs"
         | https://www.udacity.com/course/design-of-computer-programs--...
         | using Python. I'd recommend it too. (Most of the pytudes came
         | later.)
         | 
         | (disclosure: I helped a little bit when he developed the
         | course.)
        
       | ipv6ipv4 wrote:
       | AlphaCode doesn't need to by perfect, or even particularly good.
       | The question is when AlphaCode, or an equivalent, is good enough
       | for a sufficient number of problems. Like C code can always be
       | made faster than Python, Python performance is good enough (often
       | 30x slower than C) for a very wide set of problems while being
       | much easier to use.
       | 
       | In Norvig's example, the code is much slower than ideal (50x
       | slower), it adds unnecessary code, and yet, it generated correct
       | code many times faster than anyone could ever hope to. An easy to
       | use black box that produces correct results can be good enough.
        
         | alar44 wrote:
         | Absolutely. I've been using it to create Slack bots over the
         | last week. It's cuts out a massive amount of time researching
         | APIs and gives me good enough, workable, understandable
         | starting points that saves me hours worth of fiddling and
         | refactoring.
        
         | weatherlite wrote:
         | It's good enough for a human to go over it and change it (maybe
         | change it in a big way even). This wouldn't have passed code
         | review probably.
         | 
         | Its still probably quite a boost for productivity but it
         | doesn't take the human out of the equation. I can also imagine
         | scenarios where relying too much on generated code without
         | understanding it will cause massive bugs and headaches, just
         | like copy pasting stuff from Stackoverflow without
         | understanding it.
        
         | ALittleLight wrote:
         | It seems like it would be easy enough to train the model to
         | improve performance too once you have it writing correct code.
         | Write N problems and N performance test suites - then train by
         | self-play on those problems until you're writing high
         | performance code.
        
         | Too wrote:
         | The idea of python is to be human readable, allowing easy
         | review of correctness and hopefully translating into choice of
         | better algorithms.
         | 
         | This AI generated example is neither readable nor
         | algorithmically efficient, on top of running in slow
         | interpreted python. Worst of all 3 dimensions.
         | 
         | I do happily and regularly use copilot myself for boilerplate,
         | where it does produce good enough and easily verifiable
         | results, but hell no would I trust it for a complex algorithm
         | like this, in its current state. Just understanding the problem
         | domain enough to review the code is more than half of the
         | challenge. How long until we reach that level of trust is our
         | future mystery.
        
         | TheRealPomax wrote:
         | But as an AI implementation, when considered "as an example of
         | an AI implementation", an analysis of its behaviour by one of
         | the foremost experts in the field is still entirely worth the
         | effort, because _we learn from that analysis_. It teaches us
         | what an expert in the field sees happening, where _and how_ it
         | 's falling short, and so what kind of improvements would be
         | worth continued focus on.
         | 
         | Criticism by a lay person is a blog post. Criticism by Peter
         | Norvig is a teaching moment that future work is based on. It's
         | like having Knuth comment on your fundamental algorithm design:
         | there is gold in them there text, and we got it for free.
        
       | ryan93 wrote:
       | Impressive the chatgpt could understand that backspace problem.
       | I'm drooling on myself trying to understand it.
        
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