[HN Gopher] Splashdown NASA's Orion Returns to Earth After Histo...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Splashdown NASA's Orion Returns to Earth After Historic Moon
       Mission
        
       Author : zdw
       Score  : 253 points
       Date   : 2022-12-12 03:27 UTC (19 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nasa.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nasa.gov)
        
       | sphinxster wrote:
       | Images and videos from the mission:
       | 
       | https://images.nasa.gov/search-results?q=artemis%20resource%...
        
       | hoseja wrote:
       | Why do they keep calling it "historic". There's noting historic
       | about it.
        
         | ForHackernews wrote:
         | It's the first human-capable spacecraft to leave near-Earth
         | orbit in half a century.
         | 
         | That's historic in my book.
        
           | _joel wrote:
           | It's gone further from Earth than any other human capable
           | vehicle.
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | It was historic when it was done the first time. Doing it
           | again after taking a break is not historic.
        
         | dotancohen wrote:
         | I don't know of any other non-Military program that had cost
         | $93,000,000,000 dollars. Surely that's a significant historic
         | first.
        
           | ForHackernews wrote:
           | The US social security program cost more than 7 times that
           | much, only for last year.
           | 
           | If you can't think of any others, I suspect you need to
           | adjust your own perspective.
        
             | dotancohen wrote:
             | I had no idea.
             | 
             | If that is the case, then why do people argue that we
             | shouldn't be going to the moon until all humans on Earth
             | are fed and have homes? Over the past ten years the cost of
             | an Artemis mission was 1/70 the cost of social security -
             | and that price will go down every mission as the R&D phase
             | is done. Would an additional 1.4% funding to social
             | programs really solve hunger and homelessness?
        
               | yamtaddle wrote:
               | Social Security is a public pension system, and is
               | necessarily huge since it serves hundreds of millions of
               | people. It's often excluded from budgetary analyses
               | because it tends to throw everything out-of-whack, and
               | the money that flows into it is separate from ordinary
               | taxes, so isn't available for the general funds anyway--
               | the way it's set up, Congress can't simply redirect
               | Social Security spending to other purposes through
               | anything like the ordinary budget process, they'd have to
               | modify Social Security itself first, then probably
               | weather a torrent of lawsuits.
        
               | trollerator23 wrote:
               | Well, this is paying for those NASA and big contractors
               | to have a home and food, so there.
        
           | eesmith wrote:
           | It's definitely in rarefied territory, but that alone does
           | not make it a significant historic first.
           | 
           | The US Interstate Highway System cost $535 billion in 2020
           | dollars, according to
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_Highway_System .
           | 
           | The Apollo project cost $165 billion in 2021 dollars,
           | according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program .
        
           | Maken wrote:
           | The Northeast Corridor high speed retrack is planned to
           | exceed $100 billion. Records are made to be broken.
        
       | esskay wrote:
       | Whilst its fantastic (and to be honest a little surprising) that
       | the mission went without any major issues (and the staff at NASA
       | are obviously to be commended for their efforts), the whole
       | project still feels like 'the wrong solution to the problem'.
       | 
       | I get it, SLS was started years ago before commercial space
       | became so successful...but it should've adapted as needed. We're
       | now stuck with a poorly planned mission that's going to cost
       | obscene amounts of money - some of the same reasons they canned
       | Apollo.
       | 
       | I just hope that SpaceX (and others - we need multiple operators)
       | can get this right on their own and force NASA to accept that
       | 'old space' is not the way to be doing things anymore. If we want
       | this to last and not be a 2-3 year run of launches followed by
       | another 50 years of NASA stagnation they'll need to adapt and
       | stop allowing themselves to get bent over by the likes of Boeing
       | and Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, etc.
        
         | jakeinspace wrote:
         | Point the finger at congress, not NASA. Orion itself appears to
         | be a pretty good craft. The SLS being a boondoggle is of course
         | true, but it's something most engineers inside NASA accept to
         | some degree (that was my experience). It is definitely a shame
         | that the agency's budget is so hamstrung by the development and
         | procurement costs of SLS. Nobody will be happier than NASA when
         | spacex eats ULA'S lunch and can provide them cheap lunar
         | access.
        
           | Gwypaas wrote:
           | If after spending ~$25 billion it would be less than a
           | "pretty good craft" then well. I don't know what to say.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)#Funding_his.
           | ..
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | The UK's HS2 rail system will likely cost more than PS42bn
             | to join London and Birmingham (with a bit of an extension
             | to Crewe.)
             | 
             | $25bn for a working moon shot is pretty good value in
             | comparison.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | But you can go more than _once_ to and fro London and
               | Birmingham.
        
               | jakeinspace wrote:
               | Optimistic given the ongoing rail strikes.
        
         | yamtaddle wrote:
         | I visited the US Space and Rocket Center in Huntsville, AL
         | semi-recently, for the first time since I was a very little
         | kid.
         | 
         | It was disappointing all around--lots of stuff broken, outdoor
         | exhibits clearly deteriorating, nickel-and-diming for every
         | activity after a not-cheap entry fee, a ton of floor space
         | dedicated to a visually (at least) hideous display that looked
         | like someone took all the material from an aerospace defense
         | contractor trade show and dumped it haphazardly about the
         | place, their collection of space travel artifacts generally
         | being unimpressive aside from the obviously-amazing turned-on-
         | its-side-and-broken-apart Saturn V (if you could pay half the
         | entry fee to _just_ see that, it 'd be the superior bang-for-
         | the-buck experience by a long shot)--but the goofiest bit about
         | it was that 100% of its depiction of the future of space
         | flight, which was pushed on little displays and such scattered
         | about the place, was dedicated to the obsolete money-pit SLS.
         | Contributed to the feeling that the whole facility was paid-
         | entry advertising for the aerospace-defense industry (I assume
         | the SLS has been a reliable source of fat contracts for the
         | usual suspects).
        
       | macintux wrote:
       | Discussion earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33945370
        
       | coffeeblack wrote:
       | Historic is mostly the price tag. Everything else has been done
       | before.
       | 
       | Looking forward to a reusable launch system flying around the
       | moon for cheaper than currently launching to LEO. That will be
       | historic.
        
       | uncertainquark wrote:
       | Now that Orion has returned safely to Earth, it feels so amazing
       | to talk about Artemis I as the past! If its help in returning
       | humans to our Moon deeply moved you too, you can follow the
       | pieces of its progress via my one-of-a-kind, technical newsletter
       | called Moon Monday: https://blog.jatan.space/s/moon-monday
       | 
       | It also covers global lunar exploration, science and commercial
       | developments to show that our return to the Moon this is truly a
       | worldwide trend and how valuable each vertical is.
        
       | n8cpdx wrote:
       | It feels weird seeing boondoggles like the Senate Launch System
       | actually deliver. On the one hand it's exciting because we're
       | actually really possibly maybe finally going back to the moon. On
       | the other hand, it is at the price of, minimum,
       | $1,000,000,000/launch. A successful launch doesn't actually
       | change the reality that it was and still is largely politically
       | viable only as a jobs/pork program.
       | 
       | I wonder if people felt this way about Apollo? In hindsight it
       | feels worthwhile. But the big difference between Artemis and
       | Apollo is that Artemis is coming after Commercial Crew/SpaceX has
       | proven a different business/engineering model.
       | 
       | I've been waiting for this since I was in the fifth grade, so I
       | should be happy. But then, I was promised a path to Mars with
       | boots on the Moon two years ago.
        
         | eesmith wrote:
         | > I wonder if people felt this way about Apollo?
         | 
         | Yes.
         | https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/09/moond...
         | 
         | ] For example, many people believe that Project Apollo was
         | popular, probably because it garnered significant media
         | attention, but the polls do not support a contention that
         | Americans embraced the lunar landing mission. Consistently
         | throughout the 1960s a majority of Americans did not believe
         | Apollo was worth the cost, with the one exception to this a
         | poll taken at the time of the Apollo 11 lunar landing in July
         | 1969. And consistently throughout the decade 45-60 percent of
         | Americans believed that the government was spending too much on
         | space, indicative of a lack of commitment to the spaceflight
         | agenda. These data do not support a contention that most people
         | approved of Apollo and thought it important to explore space.
        
           | GolfPopper wrote:
           | My family has copy of Mr. President[1], a 1967 game that
           | simulates a US presidential election in fairly detailed
           | fashion. As part of the game, the Presidential and Vice-
           | Presidential candidates will have positions on a number of
           | controversial issues, one of which is Space exploration,
           | right up there with things like entitlement programs and
           | Vietnam.
           | 
           | As a kid in the 80s, most of the issues made sense as "yeah,
           | people still debate this", but seeing space exploration there
           | as a big, controversial thing while living through the heyday
           | of the pre-Challenger shuttle program always gave me this
           | strong sense of cognitive dissonance.
           | 
           | 1. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/476/mr-president
        
           | squarefoot wrote:
           | Space missions are not worth their cost only if one thinks
           | about them as tight closed black boxes that don't produce any
           | advancements in their own and other fields.
        
             | eesmith wrote:
             | If I hear the spinoff argument one more time, I'm going to
             | gag. That's all a Panglossian argument that there was no
             | other better way to have spent the money.
             | 
             | In any case, several of Etzioni's arguments were clearly
             | NOT thinking about tight closed black boxes. Here are
             | three:
             | 
             | > It would not be in the national interest to exploit space
             | science at the cost of weakening our efforts in other
             | scientific endeavors. ...
             | 
             | > We would fall behind in other sciences because of our
             | dedication to putting men on the moon. ...
             | 
             | > the space race is used as an escape, by focusing on the
             | moon we delay facing ourselves
             | 
             | The quote from the LA Sentinel flips your black box
             | argument around, pointing out the benefits come with a
             | people cost:
             | 
             | > .. argued against Apollo in no uncertain terms, saying,
             | "It would appear that the fathers of our nation would allow
             | a few thousand hungry people to die for the lack of a few
             | thousand dollars while they would contaminate the moon and
             | its sterility for the sake of 'progress' and spend billions
             | of dollars in the process, while people are hungry, ill-
             | clothed, poorly educated (if at all)."
             | 
             | The linked-to M.A. thesis has more direct quotes, like
             | protestors who want some of the money diverted from the
             | space program to feed some tens of thousands of people who
             | don't have adequate food, nor comfortable homes from which
             | to watch the Moon landing.
             | 
             | These are issues we still delay facing.
        
             | philistine wrote:
             | Having TV blasted from space, GPS to know to turn at this
             | intersection, and pictures of every roof on the planet is
             | useful. None of those technologies could have happened if
             | we didn't send people in tin cans first.
             | 
             | The moon is an interesting destination for its Helium-3. We
             | will run out at some point on Earth (Helium literally
             | floats away), and going to the Moon for this resource could
             | very well be our first extra-terrestrial mining operation.
        
               | bnralt wrote:
               | > Having TV blasted from space, GPS to know to turn at
               | this intersection, and pictures of every roof on the
               | planet is useful. None of those technologies could have
               | happened if we didn't send people in tin cans first.
               | 
               | The first geopositioning satellite[1], first satellite
               | that broadcast of a human voice from space[2], and the
               | first photos taken from orbit[3] all predate the first
               | human in space[4].
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_(satellite) [2]
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCORE_(satellite) [3]
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explorer_6 [4]
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_1
        
               | eesmith wrote:
               | How do you make your conclusion?
               | 
               | Telstar 1 started blasting TV from space in 1962.
               | 
               | I don't know how that required Gargarin or Shepard to be
               | in their tin cans first.
               | 
               | Also, we sent up SCORE in 1958, and famously Arthur C.
               | Clarke wrote about using satellites for
               | telecommunications in 1945.
               | 
               | TIROS, the US's first weather satellite, preceded
               | Gargarin.
               | 
               | KH-1, the US's first spy satellite, meant for
               | photographic surveillance of the Soviet Union, was even
               | earlier.
               | 
               | These certainly didn't require humans in tin cans first.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Lunar mining of 3He is a huge canard. It likely requires
               | more energy to extract it from regolith than it returns
               | from fusion (10 ppb is not much!)
               | 
               | 3He can be made by DD fusion (which either produces 3He,
               | or produces T which can be allowed to decay to 3He;
               | neutrons from DD fusion can also be used to make tritium
               | which can also be allowed to decay to 3He.) This is
               | Helion's plan, with the system operated in a mode that
               | suppresses DT fusion.
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | See https://gundam.fandom.com/wiki/Jupiter_Energy_Fleet
               | from the late 1970s; people have been thinking about this
               | problem for a _long_ time. This SF TV series cheated with
               | a new physics which allowed compact nuclear fusion
               | reactors minus the ability to do anything with neutrons.
               | We still don 't have a good path to them for basic
               | electrical power generation, seeing as how much we're
               | still struggling with theoretical break even DT fusion,
               | with the LLNL experiment per something I just read not
               | counting the power input into the lasers.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | I don't look at fictional sources for evidence about
               | reality.
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | So fiction showing people were thinking about X at such
               | and so a time not evidence people were thinking about X
               | at such and so a time???
               | 
               | All the "get to the moon" or beyond SF, which per Robert
               | Heinlein was an explicit goal of his juveniles, to teach
               | the attitudes and what you needed to learn to to get into
               | space, which he was later told actually worked for a
               | number of Apollo project people was ... what??
               | 
               | Can't make fusion reactors that interesting and the SF
               | series never tried except when they didn't get a chance
               | to shut down properly and went boom (actually a very
               | beginning plot point), but I'm glad for all the fiction
               | creators who inspired me into a STEM career when I was
               | young.
        
               | eesmith wrote:
               | I believe pfdietz's point is there's no need to go to the
               | Moon (or Jupiter?!) to extract 3He when sufficient 3He
               | can be generated on Earth, at lower cost, and be energy
               | positive.
               | 
               | Your digression seems irrelevant to that point.
               | 
               | We didn't use Heinlein stories as a source of evidence
               | about reality. We didn't use thorium rockets to get to
               | the Moon. Nor did we develop monoatomic hydrogen
               | ("Single-H") fuel.
               | 
               | Similarly, we don't use Gundam stories.
               | 
               | Also, Project Daedalus' proposal to mine the Jupiter
               | atmosphere for 3He for fusion predates the first Gundam
               | episode, and is likely what influenced the series.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Daedalus .
        
         | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
         | The big thing that's missing from this discussion is the
         | primary reason for the US manned space mission program and it's
         | ultimate goal per JFK in 1961, 4 months into his presidency, of
         | "before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and
         | returning him safely to the Earth."
         | 
         | The previous president Eisenhower allowed the Soviets to get
         | ahead of us starting with Sputnik to avoid them whining forever
         | about overflights of others' territory. To the point Wernher
         | von Braun's team had to put ballast in their rocket payloads to
         | make sure they wouldn't "accidentally" put something into
         | orbit.
         | 
         | This resulted a _massive_ shock in the US which you can see in
         | for example a whole bunch of science education programs spawned
         | after Sputnik, and to the rest of the world put into doubt our
         | technological superiority. After the Soviets were the first to
         | put a man in orbit a month before JFK 's speech and a few weeks
         | before our first manned suborbital fight, the next spectacle
         | was obviously a manned moon mission. Which we had a chance to
         | beat them at although back in 1961 that was no sure thing.
         | 
         | This would also fit in with the JFK campaign's fictitious
         | "missile gap" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap
        
         | ISL wrote:
         | People definitely protested the Apollo program.
         | 
         | The primary objections of which I am aware focused on Apollo's
         | prioritization above addressing poverty:
         | 
         | https://www.ajc.com/news/why-civil-rights-activists-proteste...
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_on_the_Moon
        
         | robomartin wrote:
         | > I was promised a path to Mars with boots on the Moon two
         | years ago.
         | 
         | We did some work on a camera system for the Artemis project. It
         | will hopefully make it to the moon's surface by the third
         | mission. Also worked on spacecraft going to the ISS.
         | 
         | I don't think people --including most engineers-- have a good
         | grasp of just how difficult it is to make anything going to
         | space, much less anything that involves people.
         | 
         | The simplest statement I can make is:
         | 
         | Everything is trying to kill you and your hardware 100% of the
         | time.
         | 
         | Leave the protection of the magnetosphere and things get much
         | worse.
         | 
         | Designing safe and reliable systems to go to the Moon or Mars
         | is complex and hard to nail down to a schedule. This isn't like
         | a software startup where you can deliver half a product and
         | iterate (or even execute a full pivot) over time. You have to
         | get it right or things fail in spectacular ways and people die.
         | 
         | Imagine having to deliver your Social Media, online commerce or
         | SaaS product with a full 100% working set of required features,
         | non-trivial failure tolerance and uptime guarantee, or (to be
         | dramatic) your entire family dies. A bit out there? Not so
         | sure.
        
           | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
           | "Everything is trying to kill you and your hardware 100% of
           | the time.
           | 
           | I was appalled when I learned about LEO atomic oxygen.
           | 
           | "Leave the protection of the magnetosphere and things get
           | much worse."
           | 
           | Anything in the Orion to deal with the latter for the not rad
           | hard humans? Or is this another Apollo Program timed with the
           | solar cycle (which due to delays cut the latter short)?
        
             | robomartin wrote:
             | > Anything in the Orion to deal with the latter for the not
             | rad hard humans?
             | 
             | Well, GCR's (Galactic Cosmic Rays) will go through just-
             | about anything. I think I remember an experiment that
             | measured penetration in water to over half a mile (800
             | meters). As such, all you can do is manage exposure...you
             | are not going to stop them. On the moon one of the ideas is
             | to pile-up regolith (moon dirt) to create better
             | protection. Without that you would need to transport more
             | material out there than might be possible.
             | 
             | I am not aware of what long-term plans might look like
             | today. I guess is that the ideal habitat will likely take
             | the form of repurposing the rocket to become living
             | quarters and bury it under as much regolith as it might be
             | able to support. Of course, that implies suitable
             | construction equipment to be available. I doubt astronauts
             | are going to shovel the stuff at that scale.
             | 
             | In terms of electronics, you try to keep things powered
             | down to the extent possible. Circuits can self-destruct
             | very quickly if powered-up. An unpowered circuit is less
             | likely to suffer the same kind of damage.
             | 
             | Beyond that, critical systems are typically designed to a
             | fault-tolerance (FT) level. A single fault tolerant system
             | can have one failure and still operate within mission
             | parameters. You could have 2FT systems that will run after
             | two failure. Because mass is important in going to space,
             | FT doesn't necessarily fully duplicate a system (for
             | example, triplicate copies of a system to be able to
             | survive two failures). These days deeper analysis is
             | possible and enhanced fault tolerance can be applied to
             | selected functional units. At the end of the day, the most
             | important thing is to test, test, test.
             | 
             | NASA has a lot of publicly-available resources about this
             | and more. Chapter 3 of this one has an overview of
             | protection from space radiation:
             | 
             | https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/sf_rad
             | i...
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | Thanks for the general info ... have we found any caves
               | on or in the moon?? And the reference, just skimmed it
               | but it appears to be written at a high and thorough
               | level.
               | 
               | But I wasn't clear about my real question: is there a
               | shield planned for the Orion spacecraft to keep
               | astronauts alive during a sufficiently bad solar event on
               | a trip to or from the moon? As I recall the lunar
               | orbiting space station was going to be unmanned but I was
               | wrong or they've changed their minds:
               | https://www.nasa.gov/gateway So they've got to be
               | thinking about this problem, and as the reference notes
               | we'll need for example adequate space weather
               | surveillance which I note we've been emplacing as of
               | late.
               | 
               | I've never checked it out like running the numbers but
               | I've heard for a long time Apollo was timed for a low
               | part of the solar cycle and one reason Nixon cut it short
               | was because delays put those canceled missions into the
               | active part of the cycle.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _boondoggles_
         | 
         | You should know that using words like that taints the rest of
         | your comment. While you are welcome to your opinion, and
         | expressing it is perfectly fine, you should be aware that other
         | people may not take the remainder of what you write seriously.
         | 
         |  _$1,000,000,000 /launch_
         | 
         | A microwave oven used to cost more than a car.
         | 
         | We learn, we innovate, we iterate, and eventually the cost
         | comes down. But we have to start somewhere.
        
         | kube-system wrote:
         | > A successful launch doesn't actually change the reality that
         | it was and still is largely politically viable only as a
         | jobs/pork program.
         | 
         | This is sometimes seen as wasteful, on the surface, but there
         | are very real benefits to doing things like this, even when it
         | is much more expensive than alternatives:
         | 
         | 1. having alternatives to other commercial ventures, which are
         | subject to their own financial viability
         | 
         | 2. having backup launch capability
         | 
         | 3. maintaining more relevant talent in the US
         | 
         | 4. maintaining institutional knowledge of cutting edge
         | aerospace tech
         | 
         | 5. maintaining aerospace industrial capability in the US
         | 
         | These are all generally good for furthering science and
         | technology, and our economy, but it is critical in times of war
         | (and as a deterrent to war)
         | 
         | The romantic nature of space is definitely the best way to sell
         | these programs, but there are much more pragmatic reasons to be
         | doing them.
        
           | GolfPopper wrote:
           | For 3, and 4, I may be wrong, but my understanding is that
           | the SLS is just continuing (and, with future engines, re-
           | producing) the space-shuttle tech package. Which is, well,
           | certainly not cutting edge, and not particularly relevant to
           | anything else anyone is doing in the space-launch sphere.
           | 
           | Now, just because no one else is doing it doesn't mean it's
           | automatically bad, but it's a launch technology suite that
           | was selected against for good reason in the post-shuttle era.
           | The (eventual) launch of Artemis I made clear, for example,
           | that cryogenic hydrogen is a really problem-prone PITA to
           | work with.
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | If you're working with decades-long development timelines,
             | it isn't the worst idea to use a modernized version of
             | proven technology.
             | 
             | Let SpaceX et al. take the technology risk, and support
             | them via contracts.
             | 
             | But it's an improvement on the prior approach to instead
             | put space eggs in two baskets: {lower risk, conservative
             | technology choices} + {higher risk, cutting edge technology
             | choices}
        
               | throwaway4aday wrote:
               | But no one questions why we are working with decades long
               | development timelines. Even Apollo was conceived in 1960
               | and landed in 1969, under one decade let alone multiple
               | decades. SpaceX went from 0 launches to orbit in a
               | decade, then from 0 reusable to world first in a decade
               | and now looks like they are gunning for Mars within a
               | decade.
               | 
               | I agree with the other poster that the only thing that
               | will light a fire under the US' butt is having a peer
               | country clown them in a space milestone. I don't like the
               | CCP and I abhor their practices but I do root for their
               | space program since seeing that bright red commie flag on
               | the moon is the only egg big enough to cover all the
               | faces necessary in the usgov in order to actually get
               | something done.
               | 
               | I also really hope that India gets in the game in a
               | serious way so we can have even more competition, an
               | India-China space race would be fun to watch and would
               | have the US scrambling to catch up.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | The F-1 engine was developed in response to a mid-50s
               | requirement, and itself borrowed heavily from 40s Nazi
               | technology.
               | 
               | It does seem historically accurate to say that
               | governments don't successfully complete state-of-the-art
               | mega-projects absent war or an existential treat.
               | 
               | I expect those are the only things powerful enough to cut
               | through the bureaucratic resistance to progress.
        
               | pohl wrote:
               | > Let SpaceX et al. take the technology risk
               | 
               | ...but who would have guessed that one of the
               | externalities of this approach would be an oligarch going
               | full QAnon off the rails with a social network he bought
               | as hobby bullhorn. I think I'd rather just pay my taxes
               | and fund a civilian space agency and still have a more
               | sane information environment.
        
               | szundi wrote:
               | Whatever he turns out to be, this tech is going to be
               | there in the head of those people working at SpaceX.
               | Should it go bankrupt later, other investors will hire
               | them and they go forward.
               | 
               | Musk is ... unique. Let's say. But he is very good at
               | organizing companies for a relentless push for the
               | results.
        
               | pohl wrote:
               | Treating employees as burnable resources isn't very good
               | business, though. He's "good at" long-term dysfunction
               | for short-term gain. Through that lens, I wouldn't be
               | surprised if he decided to juice Twitter's MAU metrics by
               | turning the place into a trainwreck.
        
               | glompers wrote:
               | We tend to think of risk management and secondarily the
               | cost horizon of [re]building eroded technical competence,
               | in the West, but hn commenter User23 also makes a point
               | that is incredibly important and less often mentioned:
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33939692
               | 
               | > " 'Indeed, besides the Catholic Church, the Lutheran
               | Church, and the Parliaments of Iceland and the Isle of
               | Man, every organization [of 60+] in the western world
               | that's been continuously operating since 1530 is a
               | university.'
               | 
               | -- https://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/EWD/transcriptions/EWD
               | 11xx/E...
               | 
               | I believe this is why it's critically important that
               | universities remain focused on their timeless mission
               | rather than chasing secular fads. The Buxton index,
               | described in the [link], is an incredibly important
               | concept."
               | 
               | It's natural that we would think technology startups
               | compelling due to the way they succeed with difficulty
               | and risk management competence. But if their Buxton index
               | of planning horizon is limited by their runway, and a
               | decade is considered an Uber-long horizon, how futuristic
               | and exceptional are we ultimately talking? I agree with
               | the parent commenter that the eggs in two baskets serve
               | separately appropriate purposes.
        
           | Veedrac wrote:
           | These are common but post-hoc justifications. Government
           | launch monopolies have suppressed a lot of competition in the
           | market, that would exist in plenty if the money was fairly
           | spent.
           | 
           | A particularly salient example in light of Russia's war is
           | that Congress repeatedly underfunded the Commercial Crew
           | Program in favor of over-funding SLS, while we were trying to
           | wean off Russian dependence.
           | 
           | But this is far from the only case. We could have had
           | redundancy in Artemis by designing for commercial lift; half
           | the money split between three providers would have given a
           | lot more lift and a lot better cadence than SLS. We could
           | seek out redundancy for SLS _now_ , by buying rockets Artemis
           | already requires, modified for SLS' flight profile, and
           | spending a tiny fraction on, say, ULA and Blue's rockets.
           | 
           | We would have more backup launch capabilities, and more
           | relevant talent, and more institutional knowledge, if we just
           | invested the money in open-market demand for products, rather
           | than supporting and endorsing monopoly-making. Was Congress
           | more up in arms over Starship HLS, or ULA EELV? Think what it
           | says to the market when a government is more willing to give
           | money to a company for forming a monopoly and to penalize
           | them for flying commercial payloads, than in purchase of a
           | product.
           | 
           | The motivations for these programs aren't actually grounded
           | in the betterment of the industry, nor of the US' launch
           | capabilities in general. There is no way ~$100B on SLS/Orion
           | is a sane allocation of money for that.
        
             | kube-system wrote:
             | They're not post-hoc at all, military power was the entire
             | reason world powers went to space to begin with, not
             | science.
             | 
             | And private aerospace has highly monopolized themselves --
             | there's a reason there's so many hyphenated company names
             | in this space. Consolidation is the natural evolution of
             | large private companies in industries with high barriers to
             | entry. The only mechanism we have to counter that _is_
             | public spending that intentionally props up smaller
             | players. SpaceX would already be out of business if it
             | weren 't for the US government swooping in to save the day.
             | They didn't have a viable commercial business until later.
        
           | altacc wrote:
           | I'd add that whilst people generally have a low trust in
           | governments, I personally have zero trust in corporations and
           | the idea of access to space being solely the preserve of
           | commercial entities is an uncomfortable one. Historically
           | both governments and companies have acted for self interest
           | and detrimentally to everyone else but governments still have
           | more accountability than corporations, which are beholden to
           | a profit seeking board. Governments do things that are not
           | profitable but advance society, for profit entities don't.
        
             | robertlagrant wrote:
             | > Governments do things that are not profitable but advance
             | society, for profit entities don't.
             | 
             | The simplest way to understand if society wants something
             | is if it will pay for it.
             | 
             | > the idea of access to space being solely the preserve of
             | commercial entities is an uncomfortable one
             | 
             | It shouldn't be. Until SpaceX, the only way to the ISS was
             | a Russian-controlled system. Would you prefer that to
             | SpaceX today? Or is it better to have companies - that are
             | regulated - follow money rather than the whims of whomever
             | is currently in charge?
        
               | gbear605 wrote:
               | > The simplest way to understand if society wants
               | something is if it will pay for it.
               | 
               | That's society's preferences weighted by how good each
               | person is at making money, but it doesn't represent
               | society as a whole. If a person is disabled or uneducated
               | and can't hold a job, that person should still get an
               | equal say in society's preferences even though they have
               | no money with which to express their preferences.
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | > should still get an equal say in society's preferences
               | even though they have no money with which to express
               | their preferences
               | 
               | They don't get that through the government. A mostly
               | binary choice comprising of what two sides promise to do
               | on a thousand issues? How is that anything close to the
               | perfect accessible system you're positing?
        
               | ogre_magi wrote:
               | >that person should still get an equal say in society's
               | preferences
               | 
               | why?
        
               | 13of40 wrote:
               | I know it's an archaic sentiment, but something about
               | everyone being created equal...
        
               | jkeddo wrote:
               | Is it really equality to perfectly equalize decision-
               | making while completely slanting the resulting the
               | burden-taking?
               | 
               | I realize how dangerous/potentially harmful a "taxpayer
               | contribution === influence" is. But I think it doesn't
               | have to be a binary. Perhaps a "three house" style system
               | would be an improvement for representative democracy
               | here:
               | 
               | One house for representatives of each state One house for
               | representatives of vote by population One house for
               | representatives of taxpayers by net tax burden carried
        
               | MontagFTB wrote:
               | Because they are people at risk of being marginalized or
               | abused. It doesn't mean their preferences become law, but
               | they should have a voice.
        
               | alpos wrote:
               | In case you were looking for the literal answer, it is
               | because a society is the aggregate of every individual in
               | it. It follows that a society's preferences are defined
               | by the aggregate of the preferences of each individual in
               | it.
               | 
               | Therefore if one wants to know what the society's
               | preferences are, that data must be collected in such a
               | way the each individual's preferences are included in the
               | data set.
               | 
               | We might still apply a weighting function at aggregation
               | time, depending on why we're looking at society's
               | preferences in that instance. There are certain group's
               | of opinions that we don't value as much for answers to
               | some questions, but we should like to be deliberate about
               | those choices instead of applying an implicit weighting
               | function during collection.
        
               | adventured wrote:
               | I worked at a chain retail store once upon a time. There
               | was a self-proclaimed nazi (he was proud of it of course)
               | that came in daily and stole a lot of merchandise.
               | Company policy was to do nothing, essentially.
               | 
               | The nazi also had a criminal record for raping a young
               | boy.
               | 
               | The parent put it this way:
               | 
               | > If a person is disabled or uneducated and can't hold a
               | job, that person should still get an equal say in
               | society's preferences even though they have no money with
               | which to express their preferences
               | 
               | Morally and rationally the nazi child rapist should not
               | have equal say in society's preferences. Any society -
               | any culture - that is stupid enough to place that
               | person's preferences at a level of equality, deserves and
               | will have earned its inevitable collapse. And there are
               | far worse monsters roaming about than the nazi child
               | rapist. While my specific example is an outlier (on
               | purpose), the premise is far more expansive in principle.
               | 
               | It's also why a Constitutional Republic is vastly
               | superior to actual Democracy.
        
               | alpos wrote:
               | Collection of data is not equivalent to a judgement on
               | the value of the results.
               | 
               | For example, when considering questions of crime and
               | punishment / deterrence we probably wouldn't value the
               | preferences of say, psychopathic murderers, on the same
               | level as those of the families of their victims. That
               | would be silly.
               | 
               | However, it would still be good to collect their
               | preferences on conditions within the prison system and
               | host of other topics. And we might still intentionally
               | devalue those preferences too, but that would be a
               | deliberate choice of values as society.
               | 
               | When we fail to collect the data effectively in the first
               | place, we deprive ourselves of the opportunity to
               | determine what we value and what we don't. So we're still
               | going to want to know these things, that way we don't
               | just discover later that we were ignoring a big thing
               | that, turns out, we would have liked to value once we
               | knew about it.
               | 
               | In your particular example, add in the one stipulation
               | that both the Nazi and the family of his victims don't
               | have much discretionary income to spend and yet they live
               | in a world where society's preferences are collected
               | primarily or singularly by way of observing what people
               | spend money on. In that scenario, all of those people's
               | preferences share the equal status of being completely
               | ignored. That seems unfair to victims as well.
               | 
               | Modify the scenario a little differently and say the Nazi
               | is very wealthy while the victims are poor. So then
               | because of the data collection method alone, as a
               | society, we would then be elevating the Nazi's
               | preferences to 100% greater value than the victims.
               | 
               | That outcome seems vastly contrary to what we would
               | actually value if we just fairly and accurately collected
               | the data first and then applied our judgements about what
               | should be valued.
               | 
               | Further notice that in just asking the questions, we can
               | also easily discover at the macro level that this guy is
               | a Nazi, after all, given the chance, he'll tell us so.
               | This means deliberately ignoring his preferences is easy
               | at time of aggregation and now we can do that on purpose,
               | because as a society, we don't value the opinions of
               | Nazis when it comes to questions of how to run things in
               | a democracy.
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | _why?_
               | 
               | Because as a society, we decided long ago that everyone
               | should be treated as equally as possible.
               | 
               | We don't throw people into the garbage dump because
               | they're not as good at certain things as others.
               | 
               | We've encoded this into our laws, our norms, our
               | education, and our society as a whole. We've even fought
               | world wars because of it.
               | 
               | That you could even ask the question makes me think that
               | you're just being provocative.
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | "Because as a society, we decided long ago that everyone
               | should be treated as equally as possible."
               | 
               | That we have a progressive instead of flat personal tax
               | _rate_ system shows this is a pretty lie.
        
             | bbarnett wrote:
             | _the idea of access to space being solely the preserve of
             | commercial entities is an uncomfortable one._
             | 
             | To be fair, everything else has been like this. The first
             | railways were government funded, the first airlines (in
             | most places), this is quite typical.
             | 
             | Then as things mature, as there can be a profit-motive,
             | government tends to get out of the lime-light, and private
             | orgs take over.
             | 
             | Space-X, as an example, is just that. And space travel is
             | about to become mundane, common, normal. Just like air
             | travel in the early 50s.
             | 
             | And this doesn't mean the government has zero power here.
             | It can take over companies in time of war/national
             | emergency, it can compel for national need.
             | 
             | Again, what we need to do... is realise that space travel
             | is becoming like air travel. And I for one, would be
             | horrified if all control to air travel was through
             | governments only.
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Well, there were certainly cases where companies
               | pioneered something and government took over later - like
               | railways in Austria-Hungary. The conservative government
               | in Vienna did not thin these newfangled trains could ever
               | make money, but handed out permits to private companies
               | anyway. Then when it saw how bloody lucrative it is, it
               | nationalized those companies afterwards.
               | 
               | And there are other examples, such as the East India
               | Company having its own army, navy and effectively ruling
               | a big part of India at a time.
        
               | hobs wrote:
               | There's no way that's happening.
               | 
               | Air travel is one of the safest modes of mechanized
               | transportation in the world, space launches would be
               | among the least and probably wont change much in their
               | overall reliability.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | _wont change much in their overall reliability._
               | 
               | This is a very, very strange assertion.
               | 
               | Airflight was incredibly dangerous 100 years ago. Yet now
               | you claim it is one of the safest, thereby validating
               | that technological improvements, and design improvements,
               | can change safety.
               | 
               | Then you say, effectively "things won't improve" for
               | "this other tech over here".
               | 
               | Which is it?!
               | 
               | My point in all of this is, while space travel was a
               | _monumental_ achievement 60+ years ago, it 's simply not
               | that big of a deal now. Endless commercial corporations
               | now engage in the act, for profit, because there _is_
               | profit, and because it is _so_ commonplace.
               | 
               | And this trend will only increase, eventually leading to
               | people actually being station in space (eg, the moon,
               | larger commercial structures, mining, etc). This will
               | lead to more trips, and for people visiting said
               | structures for business, and on and on.
               | 
               | Just as with planes, this will become safer, more common,
               | more regulated, more... normal.
               | 
               | What part of this iterative process do you believe will
               | block launches from being more safe? NOTE: don't use
               | today's technology as a blocker, please.
        
             | TEP_Kim_Il_Sung wrote:
             | Governments hire corporations. Czech, mate.
        
           | touch_abs wrote:
           | Im not sure you actually achieve any of this with the SLS,
           | and NASA in general. 1 and 2 are irrelevant if the cost is
           | too high for anything that isnt a political stunt, to be a
           | real alternative it needs to be something that a commercial
           | payload might plausibly choose. 3 and 4, are compromised by
           | the political nature of NASA spending, I dont believe the
           | current institution is capable of innovation. The talent of
           | the people is uncertain, not due to the individuals, but the
           | way work can become visible (also the hiring, promotion, and
           | leadership determination is based on politics not merit)
           | Apart from long range experiments, nasa is really the cutting
           | edge at the moment. 5 is just another way tax money
           | evaporates.
        
             | yazantapuz wrote:
             | > I dont believe the current institution is capable of
             | innovation
             | 
             | But leaving aside the SLS, there are missions like the mars
             | rovers and the james webb telescope, that I think show
             | innovation and scientific success (but I do not live on the
             | us, so i have an incomplete view).
        
           | skissane wrote:
           | > 1. having alternatives to other commercial ventures, which
           | are subject to their own financial viability
           | 
           | SpaceX suddenly going out of business (as in a Chapter 7
           | bankruptcy) seems rather unlikely. The same is true of ULA,
           | Boeing, Lockheed Martin, etc. Absolute worse case scenario
           | would be Chapter 11, in which the business continues to
           | operate under new ownership, and the current owners lose
           | everything - but even that doesn't seem that likely. Anyway,
           | the chapter 11 scenario is still a risk with the cost-plus
           | procurement SLS model - Boeing (or Aerojet Rocketdyne, or
           | Lockheed Martin) going through chapter 11 might not have
           | doomed SLS/Orion, but it likely would have caused delays. In
           | fact, it is open to doubt whether SLS/Orion-style cost-plus
           | contracting has any real advantage over commercial from a
           | bankruptcy risk perspective, for two competing commercial
           | providers must have less bankruptcy risk than a single non-
           | commercial government contractor
           | 
           | > 2. having backup launch capability
           | 
           | Multiple commercial providers, like they've pursued for
           | commercial cargo and crew to ISS, and are still planning to
           | pursue for Artemis HLS, would meet that just as well as an
           | SLS-style program could. Given they likely could have
           | afforded at least two commercial systems for the cost of
           | SLS+Orion, it seems this actually gives _worse_ backup than
           | commercial does.
           | 
           | > 3. maintaining more relevant talent in the US
           | 
           | This doesn't seem relevant, given that the most likely firms
           | to have provided NASA with a commercial SLS alternative -
           | SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Sierra
           | Nevada, etc - are all US firms anyway. In fact, IIRC, the
           | NASA procurement documents for commercial crew and cargo, and
           | Artemis HLS, all said only US firms could respond. ITAR makes
           | it a lot harder for US space firms to offshore jobs than most
           | other industries.
           | 
           | > 4. maintaining institutional knowledge of cutting edge
           | aerospace tech
           | 
           | While it is true that NASA doesn't own the engineering for
           | the commercial programs, in the way they own SLS engineering,
           | NASA engineers are still heavily involved in the commercial
           | programs, for review/advice/consulting/sign-off/etc. This
           | factor is the most plausible of all those you've mentioned,
           | but it is unclear if having somewhat deeper engineering
           | expertise among NASA employees (as opposed to US private
           | sector space firms) is important enough to justify a
           | procurement approach which costs billions over and above its
           | commercial alternative
           | 
           | > 5. maintaining aerospace industrial capability in the US
           | 
           | This doesn't seem relevant for the same reasons as (3)
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _SpaceX suddenly going out of business (as in a Chapter 7
             | bankruptcy) seems rather unlikely. The same is true of ULA,
             | Boeing, Lockheed Martin_
             | 
             | SpaceX is not critical to national security, and it--many
             | times--came close to bankruptcy in its adolescence of the
             | early 2010s. Aerospace, in the past, saw massive recessions
             | where companies larger than SpaceX went poof. This will
             | almost certainly happen again, once we're done tooling up
             | for China.
        
               | areoform wrote:
               | It didn't use to be. But as soon as they started
               | launching national security payloads on the Falcon Heavy
               | and the Delta IV Heavy retired, they became the only
               | heavy-lift launch vehicle on the market capable of taking
               | up national security payloads. Until Vulcan/Centaur
               | enters the game.
        
           | TaylorAlexander wrote:
           | Sure there are these benefits, but the real question is what
           | would be the benefits of some alternative way to spend the
           | money, and how does that compare? What if we made STEM
           | degrees tuition free across the country? Surely that would
           | result in a larger talent pool than simply paying NASA
           | engineers to dig holes and then fill them up with rocket
           | parts.
        
           | zardo wrote:
           | > This is sometimes seen as wasteful, on the surface, but
           | there are very real benefits to doing things like this, even
           | when it is much more expensive than alternatives:
           | 
           | Those benefits are from having government rocket program, not
           | from having one where politicians micromanage the rocket
           | design to the extent of dictating the choice of engine.
        
           | dotancohen wrote:
           | > 1. having alternatives to other commercial ventures, which
           | are subject to their own financial viability
           | 
           | Alternatives to what? Commercial manned capsule ventures
           | already have alternatives. Specifically, the only US manned
           | capsule today, Dragon, has alternative capabilities being
           | developed by SpaceX itself in the form of Starship, and
           | Boeing has a capsule that keeps failing milestones but is
           | being developed. If you are referring to the rocket, then the
           | SLS is not compatible with any other rocket in use for any
           | purpose, due to the SRBs. All commercial payloads are
           | designed with smoother liquid-only rockets in mind -
           | designing for an SRB launch adds considerable weight to the
           | birds.                 > 2. having backup launch capability
           | 
           | Backup to what? What can the SLS launch that would go on
           | another rocket?                 > 3. maintaining more
           | relevant talent in the US
           | 
           | This is true.                 > 4. maintaining institutional
           | knowledge of cutting edge aerospace tech
           | 
           | The SLS is not cutting edge. It's refactoring 1970's
           | technologies. The Orion capsule might be considered modern,
           | but again it's not cutting edge in any sense of the term.
           | > 5. maintaining aerospace industrial capability in the US
           | 
           | Since the CRS program has been underway, this has not been in
           | danger.
        
           | themgt wrote:
           | China just built a new space station by itself in about 18
           | months. A lot of these rationalizations for going the slow
           | bloated pork route are going to evaporate as it becomes
           | clearer we have a great power peer competitor. Hopefully it
           | doesn't take a CCP flag flying on the Moon and people getting
           | arrested for criticizing Xi Jinping Thought on Mars for the
           | USA to finally get off its ass and realize being arrogantly
           | wasteful and inefficient isn't actually a "deterrent to war"
           | against a competent adversary.
        
             | adventured wrote:
             | We have no idea how long it took the Chinese Government to
             | build their new space station. They lie about practically
             | everything and the record is largely opaque with everything
             | they do. If it took them ten years to bring it to fruition,
             | they certainly would lie about it and pretend otherwise.
        
             | malfist wrote:
             | To be fair, their space station is 3 modules and about the
             | size of mir. It is significantly smaller than the ISS.
        
               | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | The ISS showed large space vehicles can be assembled from
               | small modules that could be launched on the Space
               | Shuttle.
               | 
               | This is the major accomplishment of the ISS program. So
               | what does NASA do? Decide (or be told to decide), "oh no,
               | we need a launcher that can lift much bigger things,
               | because OF COURSE we can't put smaller modules together
               | in space."
        
           | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
           | _> which are subject to their own financial viability_
           | 
           | Or are run by folks with sleep deprivation issues...
        
           | joshvm wrote:
           | On 4, SLS is also a strategic partnership with ESA and other
           | external agencies. ESA is supplying the service module for
           | example.
        
         | dools wrote:
         | Whatever we can do, we can afford.
         | 
         | Why are you concerned about commercial viability of a public
         | good?
        
         | Aloha wrote:
         | Each Apollo launch cost on the order of 3 billion dollars
         | inflation adjusted, 1 billion seems like a bargain.
        
           | Tepix wrote:
           | It will be much, much higher if you take into account the
           | entire programy
        
             | Aloha wrote:
             | Yeah, I was comparing vehicle cost to vehicle cost, So
             | yeah, Apollo was much higher, because of the costs to
             | operate the tracking network, etc - which isnt rolled into
             | this new program today.
        
         | lizknope wrote:
         | > I wonder if people felt this way about Apollo? In hindsight
         | it feels worthwhile. But the big difference between Artemis and
         | Apollo is that Artemis is coming after Commercial Crew/SpaceX
         | has proven a different business/engineering model.
         | 
         | The public started to lose interest in Apollo after a couple of
         | years. There was supposed to be an Apollo 18, 19, and 20. They
         | were cancelled. One of them turned into Skylab. The others are
         | in museums. You can walk under a Saturn V in Florida and see
         | the other in Houston.
        
         | risyachka wrote:
         | With mindset like this, Apollo would never have happened.
        
           | iso1631 wrote:
           | And what would have been lost?
        
             | Maken wrote:
             | Several hundred kilograms of lunar rocks.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Lunar samples could have been returned by unmanned
               | vehicles at a fraction of the cost of Apollo. The
               | Russians did just that! Maybe not hundreds of kilograms,
               | but enough to get the major science results (moon is
               | evolved not primitive, oxygen isotopes, volatile
               | depletion, europium anomaly). Unmanned vehicles could
               | even have reached the polar regions, which Apollo never
               | could do.
        
             | zanderwohl wrote:
             | There are a lot of technologies that advanced tremendously
             | due to developing things the Apollo Program needed: https:/
             | /www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/80660main_ApolloFS....
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | Is it fair to categorise Space-X as "the winner of the
         | competition designed by NASA to find a way to build rockets
         | without having Senators interfere?"
         | 
         | As in, SpaceX hired the engineers from NASA, got paid by NASA
         | and basically built the rockets that were in fetal at NASA?
         | 
         | I am not saying nothing innovative happened, I am asking is the
         | difference taking the same engineers out of NASA or is there
         | something else?
        
           | mayama wrote:
           | What about lockheed martin, boeing and blue origin then. They
           | also recruit from the same pool of engineers. LM/ULA gets
           | paid even better with their cost+ contracts. LM/ULA even
           | after getting paid handsomely are way behind in terms of
           | cost/kg or human launchers.
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | That's fair - but I suspect the same bureaucracy exists in
             | Lockheed et al, as do the incentives to please senators /
             | government that feed the next round of spending.
             | 
             | The simple answer is to prevent small numbers of people
             | having outsize influence on massive spending. So for
             | example, billionaires...
             | 
             | This is a thing I have been noodling on for ages but have
             | no answers other than "you need a clear mission and people
             | at the top focused on that mission even if they are not
             | clear their retirement packages are secure"
             | 
             | (or maybe their retirement packages were secure some way in
             | ...)
        
         | failuser wrote:
         | I might be harsh, but Musk has gone off the rails and is
         | getting less and less reliable option for space launches every
         | day.
        
           | bobsil1 wrote:
           | Shotwell runs SpaceX, according to NASA chief:
           | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/spacex-
           | leader...
           | 
           | Based on Musk's recent antics, pretty sure a VP runs Tesla
           | too.
        
             | ralfd wrote:
             | Four days ago:
             | 
             | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1600964083913588736
             | 
             | > I continue to oversee both Tesla & SpaceX, but the teams
             | there are so good that often little is needed from me
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | The good news is that he doesn't (there no way he'd have
           | time) run Tesla and SpaceX day-to-day other than at a very
           | high level
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | Why? Seems like the Falcon 9 team has gone from strength to
           | strength.
        
           | nonethewiser wrote:
           | That doesn't seem to be the case. SpaceX is killing it.
        
           | piokoch wrote:
           | Why? Because he bought Twitter and said that he does not like
           | censorship?
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | Emphasis on _said_ versus acts like
        
             | paparush wrote:
             | Because Twitter is a huge distraction as apparently Musk
             | has made himself moderator in chief.
             | 
             | Besides Tom Mueller actually makes the rockets go brrrrrr.
        
           | MPSimmons wrote:
           | Honestly, SpaceX has been delivering results steadily and
           | with seemingly no change in rate or quality since he was
           | distracted by Twitter. The recent news [1] that he isn't
           | doing the lead engineering at Starbase means this likely
           | won't be felt there either.
           | 
           | I suppose it really boils down to whether the organization
           | was succeeding _because_ of him or _in spite_ of him. Maybe
           | he was necessary to get it where it is and can step back and
           | have the company continue to perform well.
           | 
           | [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/spacex-shakes-up-
           | starbase-le...
        
             | jedberg wrote:
             | I think the concern is not their output but the fact that
             | Musk could one day just decide he will no longer provide
             | rockets when $political_party is in power.
        
           | dotancohen wrote:
           | > getting less and less reliable option for space launches
           | 
           | By what metric, other than "I hate Musk so I slander his
           | enterprises"?
        
         | docdendrite wrote:
         | Yes, many did feel that way and you can hear this for yourself
         | in a small part of the documentary "Summer of Soul" by
         | Questlove. In the film they show archival footage shot at the
         | Harlem Culture Festival on the day of the Apollo 11 landing.
         | The interviewees are resoundly unimpressed with the
         | achievement. They cite the expense of the program, especially
         | in lieu of the lacking services and dire maintenance of Harlem,
         | NYC as a key reason for their lack of support.
        
           | johnny22 wrote:
           | i think of "Whitey on the moon"
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goh2x_G0ct4
        
           | manigandham wrote:
           | Here's a classic letter by Ernst Stuhlinger to Sister Mary
           | Jucunda, a nun who worked among the starving children of
           | Kabwe, Zambia, in Africa, who questioned the value of space
           | exploration:
           | 
           |  _" Why Explore Space? A 1970 Letter to a Nun in Africa"_ -
           | https://launiusr.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/why-explore-
           | space-...
        
             | bnralt wrote:
             | It seems telling that the most concrete example he gives
             | for the value of human space flight is the usefulness of
             | unmanned satellites.
             | 
             | Simplistically it's true that whenever you spend money on
             | some effort there's going to be some benefit. Paying NASA
             | scientists to dig ditches would have some benefit in
             | stimulating the economy, even if it doesn't offset the
             | costs (material and opportunity). Would it be the best use
             | of resources, however?
             | 
             | Whenever I go down the rabbit hole of "spinoff
             | technologies," I find a lot of it to be a gish gallop of
             | stuff, much of which is overstated. There's a reason why
             | you hear NASA talking up pioneering research done on
             | Alzheimer's at the international space station, but you
             | don't read Alzheimer's researchers talking about
             | breakthroughs coming from the ISS.
             | 
             | Still, there are a lot of important technology that NASA
             | has been involved with. But when you look into most of it,
             | the connection to human spaceflight is tangential at best,
             | and often completely non-existent (NASA does a lot of stuff
             | outside of human spaceflight).
             | 
             | The kernel of the argument is accurate - scientific
             | research can be important even if it doesn't provide
             | immediate dividends. But too often people misuse that to
             | argue that no amount of money is poorly spent. It's
             | precisely because scientific research is important that we
             | need to carefully consider the return on different
             | projects, and make sure that the funds that are being
             | allocated are well spent.
        
               | scottLobster wrote:
               | Honestly I think all the side-effect technologies are
               | just marketing. The true goal of space exploration is and
               | should be to turn us into an interplanetary and
               | eventually interstellar species. Yes we don't have the
               | tech to do all of that just yet, and maybe some new
               | physics is required, but just as Cathedrals were
               | intentionally built over centuries we should
               | intentionally build out the capability to the best of our
               | abilities. Not only is it essential to our long-term
               | survival as a species, it would provide a cultural
               | release valve just like the old frontier, only this time
               | no natives to worry about.
        
               | bnralt wrote:
               | I highly doubt much if any of the space exploration now
               | is going to have a significant impact on humans being an
               | interplanetary or interstellar species. A good analog
               | might be the heroic age of Antarctic exploration. It was
               | interesting, but it Amundsen's expedition never left we'd
               | be in the exact same place we are now when it comes to
               | exploring Antarctica.
               | 
               | If 200 years ago a country had decided to keep a
               | settlement going at the top of Mount Everest in the name
               | of progress, it wouldn't have been any benefit to the
               | modern efforts to keep people in the ISS. Likewise, I
               | don't expect the ISS to have any noticeable impact on
               | efforts to have people live on other planets.
               | 
               | Keep in mind, this doesn't mean we won't make progress. A
               | lot of people are excited about what SpaceX has been
               | doing, and until very recently they've been entirely
               | involved in non-human cargo. There are a lot of reasons
               | to send things into space, which is why we send up a lot
               | of stuff. There's just not many reasons to send people up
               | at the moment, other than to be able to say we're sending
               | people up.
        
               | scottLobster wrote:
               | We have to start somewhere, and private industry isn't
               | going to start it because, as you point out, there's not
               | many reasons to do it at the moment. The ISS is allowing
               | us to experiment with living in orbit for extended
               | periods. We certainly have to master those relatively
               | simple conditions before attempting to survive a manned
               | trip to Mars or living on the Moon.
               | 
               | Also SpaceX wouldn't exist without the ISS. It's NASA
               | contracts for resupplying the ISS that kept it alive in
               | the early days. Which just goes to prove the model:
               | Government invests in "useless" project that allows
               | private industry the toe-hold of capital needed to
               | kickstart a new technology.
               | 
               | To your Antarctic exploration analogy, I'd say the ISS is
               | more equivalent to McMurdo station than the Amundsen
               | expedition
        
             | recuter wrote:
             | Additional food for thought about another sister:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Mother_Teresa#Re
             | l...
             | 
             | https://web.archive.org/web/20181012074427/http://www.slate
             | ....
        
               | clarionbell wrote:
               | This quote is particularly interesting:
               | 
               | In 2012, William Doino Jr, wrote that "The remarkable
               | thing about Hell's Angel is that it purports to defend
               | the poor against Mother Teresa's supposed exploitation of
               | them, while never actually interviewing any on screen.
               | Not a single person cared for by the Missionaries speaks
               | on camera. Was this because they had a far higher opinion
               | of Blessed Teresa than Hitchens would permit in his film?
               | Avoiding the people at the heart of Teresa's ministry,
               | Hitchens posed for the camera and let roll a series of ad
               | hominem attacks and unsubstantiated accusations, as
               | uninformed as they were cruel."
        
               | stareatgoats wrote:
               | I afraid we stray from the topic, but yes, i'm not either
               | one for Hitchen's obvious ideology-based vendetta against
               | Catholicism in general and Mother Teresa in particular.
               | Having witnessed first hand the Sisters of Mercy at work
               | in rural Africa where no-one except these proselytes of
               | Mother Teresa thought it worthwhile to take in orphans,
               | lepers, old people without relatives and give them food,
               | shelter, life in fact. Not an atheist in sight.
        
               | 1234letshaveatw wrote:
               | It's laughable that Mother Teresa's critics try to
               | disparage her by contrasting the care of her organization
               | vs. that of a western hospital. The reality of the
               | situation was that you either passed away in a soft bed
               | with someone by your side or alone on the side of the
               | curb. I know which one I would prefer
        
               | Wuzado wrote:
               | Relevance?
        
           | recuter wrote:
           | And what does Ja Rule think of all this?
           | 
           | Edit: Questlove is a DJ.
           | 
           | Origin of my question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-
           | ddYhXAZc
        
             | BucketsMcG wrote:
             | Questlove does a lot of things, and invariably does them
             | very well. But it's not about what _he_ thinks.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | > And what is it that will make it possible to spend twenty
         | billion dollars of your money to put some clown on the moon?
         | 
         | Tom Lehrer
        
         | mcdonje wrote:
         | Money spent on NASA is not a boondoggle. Much of the money goes
         | to paying talented scientists and engineers well. Their R&D is
         | vital to our economy.
         | 
         | You may be interested in this: https://spinoff.nasa.gov/
        
           | jovial_cavalier wrote:
           | If all talented scientists and engineers do is work on
           | boondoggles, maybe it is not so vital to pay them?
        
             | mcdonje wrote:
             | Who is the boondoggle decider?
        
               | jovial_cavalier wrote:
               | I'm just saying, you can't say "It's not a boondoggle
               | because a lot of talented engineers got paid!" That's
               | not, a priori, a good thing.
        
           | dantheman wrote:
           | Building a rocket that is hard to launch and costs a fortune
           | is a boondoggle. Talented scientists and engineers can waste
           | their time building the wrong thing.
        
             | mcdonje wrote:
             | What other current rocket system matches the specs of the
             | SLS, or has the same goals? The only thing comparable is
             | Starship, which isn't ready yet.
             | 
             | There are legitimate complaints to be made about things
             | like cost plus accounting, but the project itself isn't a
             | boondoggle. Like, the people who greenlit it aren't idiots.
             | 
             | If you want to complain about boondoggles, look at the
             | military.
        
           | thisisbrians wrote:
           | Much of it goes to enrich contractors. Lockheed Martin as a
           | usual suspect here, for example.
        
       | dotnet00 wrote:
       | I had a hard time being interested in this because of how it
       | mostly just represents the corrupt and unchecked priorities of
       | the US government. Some of the pictures were pretty, but in the
       | end it's still a massive waste of money and NASA constantly talks
       | about "a sustainable presence on the Moon" with Orion as if
       | they're praying that saying it often enough will make it true.
       | 
       | There is no path to a sustainable presence anywhere which
       | involves Orion flying, especially if it's flying on SLS.
        
         | api wrote:
         | It's a sustainable source of Federal tech job program subsidies
         | for the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and Texas.
         | 
         | Even Arianespace in France is talking about reusable cores now,
         | but I assume for them there's less political pressure to run
         | the ESA as a jobs program.
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | I think there's plenty of pressure to run the ESA as a jobs
           | program as well, it's just that they're forced to channel it
           | into a slightly more productive direction due to
           | wanting/needing the commercial launch business.
           | 
           | NASA/Congress could have achieved the same jobs program
           | effect by pushing the same money towards a reusable rocket
           | and an appropriately larger number of missions. Although
           | perhaps that wouldn't have been as good for Alabama etc (it's
           | a massive shame that they didn't take the SLS money to
           | improve Alabama's ability to handle higher tech space stuff).
        
           | pdabbadabba wrote:
           | > Even Arianespace in France is talking about reusable cores
           | now, but I assume for them there's less political pressure to
           | run the ESA as a jobs program.
           | 
           | Honest question: why would you assume that?
        
       | jeffal wrote:
       | With Musk falling off his rocker lately, maintaining an alternate
       | launch system may have been a wise decision.
        
       | bilekas wrote:
       | Feels like this doesn't get enough credit. Which is either a
       | product of the algorithm, or a failure of humanity. Or both.
        
       | bottlepalm wrote:
       | Makes me feel sick knowing we're going to keep blowing money on
       | this. We've made so little progress in the last 30 years while
       | dumping billions into unsustainable launch systems. Everyone
       | thinks space can't be don't without NASA. The reality is their
       | monopoly and deep government pockets have held back any real
       | progress.
       | 
       | It's just like healthcare and education - government money turns
       | these systems into jobs programs with inflated costs and slow
       | progress.
        
         | yoavm wrote:
         | Yeah, because countries without state education system and
         | state healthcare system are doing so great! /s
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | phist_mcgee wrote:
         | The free market would sort all of this out, stop the handouts
         | and let corporations take the lead on humanity's progress I
         | say.
        
           | phist_mcgee wrote:
           | Sarcasm seems to be an unappreciated art these days I guess..
        
         | SapporoChris wrote:
         | Relax, NASA has little effect on the rest of the world's space
         | programs. I hope you're not thinking 'space can't be done
         | without USA'.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_space_agenc...
        
           | bottlepalm wrote:
           | The rest of the world is in the same situation. Government
           | subsidized, unable to innovate without someone else proving
           | it out first. And even then they still fall back on the
           | minimum set of tech.
        
         | ketzo wrote:
         | > it's just like healthcare and education
         | 
         | So... it's ostensibly "public" while actually victim to massive
         | regulatory capture?
         | 
         | Wild to pick the two things that essentially every other
         | developed country
         | 
         | 1) runs through their government
         | 
         | 2) does _way_ better than the U.S.
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | Regulatory capture is government's fault.
        
           | nonethewiser wrote:
           | Every other developed country is not way better than the US
           | at healthcare. Cost in the US are high but there is also
           | quality and availability, which the US ranks very high in.
           | 
           | Just as an anecdote, I had to go to an ENT in the US. I was
           | discouraged that it took 12 days. Meanwhile I learned that a
           | friend in the UK had to wait 4 months. Imagine being in pain
           | and misery for weeks with no solution and being told you have
           | to wait 4 months before someone can evaluate you.
           | 
           | I'll take 12 days and a $40 copays 10/10 times.
        
             | zanderwohl wrote:
             | You're falling for the availability heuristic. I work at a
             | healthcare software company that specializes in finding
             | people services (a.k.a. referrals), and the wait times for
             | our "have-nots" are much longer than four months. There are
             | so many events and disabilities in America that can lead to
             | you just never getting care at all. Most of our population
             | is under-served.
             | 
             | Now, the UK is especially bad but their system is receiving
             | a national gutting at the moment.
        
             | elil17 wrote:
             | Healthcare wait times vary a lot country to country:
             | https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/health-
             | ca...
             | 
             | 27% of cases take one month or longer to get to a
             | specialist in the US. Compare that to 61% Norway and Canada
             | and 0% in Spain and Chile, all of which are single payer
             | systems. That figure is at 25% in Germany and The
             | Netherlands, which are both mandatory multi-payer systems
             | (a mix of private and public insurance with much stricter
             | limits on out of pocket costs compared to the US). It's not
             | obvious that single payer systems lead to universally
             | better or worse wait times.
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | A very great deal depends on urgency. Here in the US when
               | it was erroneously through I might have cancer I was in
               | the specialist's office in less then 24 hours. Granted,
               | that was a "Oh, we're not going to be too busy tomorrow
               | morning, come in and we'll make room for you" partial
               | special case. Other times I've waited a lot longer for a
               | specialist's appointment, but those absolutely weren't
               | high urgency situations.
        
               | elil17 wrote:
               | I was in exactly the same situation last week. A risk of
               | a serious illness was identified and all of a sudden the
               | red carpet was rolled out - next day appointments for
               | procedures that typically take at least weeks to get
               | scheduled. Now that they've ruled out everything really
               | nasty (thank goodness) it's back to waiting a week for my
               | doctor to reply to my messages.
        
           | azernik wrote:
           | Moving to Israel I knew prescription meds were way cheaper
           | than in the US.
           | 
           | What surprised me was that in the US, non-prescription meds
           | are FAR cheaper. THe joys of having an actual free market as
           | opposed to the captured and unwieldy hybrid that is US
           | insurance.
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | What's really funny is that there are some meds (Flonase in
             | this example) That can be purchased OTC, or prescribed and
             | picked up at a pharmacy through your insurance.
             | 
             | They cost nearly the same, whether your insurance is
             | "negotiating a rate and covering a large portion and you
             | pay the remainder", or if you just buy a box of 120 sprays
             | off the shelf, from a generic manufacturer.
             | 
             | American insurance industry is a giant, systemic fraud. It
             | pretends to save you money by creating entirely fake high
             | prices that they """negotiate""" down to a still stupid
             | price that you are contractually obligated to pay a portion
             | of. How much money actually changed hands between all
             | parties? Oh they can't tell you that.
        
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