[HN Gopher] Orion has splashed down off the coast of Baja, Calif...
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       Orion has splashed down off the coast of Baja, California
        
       Author : rntn
       Score  : 106 points
       Date   : 2022-12-11 17:42 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | Trisell wrote:
       | And now we wait two years for another "iterative" launch. No
       | wonder it takes NASA 20 years to do anything. And what are they
       | doing in those two years? Certifying the flight computers. I was
       | fearful SpaceX was falling behind but now I see that this was
       | just a publicity stunt to make NASA look competent and effective.
       | When they aren't.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | The Orion program, including the CEV from the Constellation
         | program, started in 2006, 16 years ago, and has so far cost
         | $26billion.
         | 
         | That's a long time and a lot of money.
        
         | Smaug123 wrote:
         | I mean, if I'd written the software for them and it were my
         | software being certified, I'd say two years would be an
         | underestimate :P
        
       | Aperocky wrote:
       | I think robots are the better options tbh.
       | 
       | 1. They don't need life support that amount to 2000% active mass.
       | Maybe 20% since we can still count solar panel as their life
       | support.
       | 
       | 2. They are far far far more sophisticated than what they used to
       | be. Especially with modern processors. We can even embed some
       | level of AI decision making onto these robots so they don't need
       | to call back home for every decision.
       | 
       | 3. They are far cheaper and can tolerate far lower safety margin.
       | We can potentially even mass produce them and launch 50 at a
       | time.
       | 
       | Imagine if we're just throwing a bunch of rovers on moon and each
       | of them are capable of suicide burn and landing themselves. Maybe
       | 2/10 will fail but we still get 8 rovers that can just roam the
       | moon for fun.
        
         | baq wrote:
         | A man with a shovel can do in an hour what a moon-grade robot
         | can do in a day, with some luck. (Two months on Mars.) Give the
         | man a moon digger, a moon bulldozer and a mooncrete production
         | facility (with mooncrete mixer trucks) and see what he can do
         | then ;)
        
         | zozbot234 wrote:
         | Robots _are_ the better option - we send a lot more robots to
         | space than we do humans. But there 's nothing wrong with also
         | having some human missions.
        
           | hollerith wrote:
           | There's nothing wrong with having some human missions, but I
           | don't want to help pay for it.
        
             | btgeekboy wrote:
             | NASA's total budget is approximately one half of one
             | percent (0.5%) of the federal budget. Even at its peak in
             | the 1960s, it never reached 5%. Seems pretty reasonable.
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | Since you think it's so reasonable, would you please pay
               | my share? If distributed equally among the US population,
               | it is about $75 a year per person, which of course comes
               | out to about $6.25 a month.
        
         | krasin wrote:
         | I work in a robotics research group. My natural bias is to
         | always praise the robots.
         | 
         | If the goal is just to have N robots/rovers on the moon for
         | fun/data collection, then we don't need to send humans to
         | space.
         | 
         | If the goal is to bootstrap a profitable space/Moon industrial
         | complex, then we will need a lot of robots (some autonomous and
         | some remote controlled from Earth) and a number of humans in
         | the center of events. Humans are critical for keeping
         | automation working and for adjusting to unforeseen
         | circumstances.
        
         | darknavi wrote:
         | If anyone wants a fun, near future scifi novel that explores
         | this idea more, read/listen to Delta-V by Daniel Suarez.
        
         | teddyh wrote:
         | " _If scientific knowledge was all we were after, then the
         | Federation would have built a fleet of probes, not starships.
         | Exploration is about seeing things with your own eyes._ "
         | 
         | -- Captain Kathryn Janeway, _One Small Step_ , Star Trek
         | Voyager Season 6, Episode 8
        
       | mabbo wrote:
       | Tim Dodd made a lovely point in his stream of the event.
       | 
       | People keep asking why this is a big deal- we did this fifty
       | years ago, right? It should be a lot easier now with modern tech.
       | 
       | Yes, but now we're doing it _safely_. The Apollo program took
       | risks that today 's NASA never would allow. We're better at that
       | now, but it's a lot more work.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | The only 'big deal' is that NASA is planning to return to the
         | Moon after a 50+ years hiatus.
         | 
         | There's little that is groundbreaking.
        
         | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
         | "now we're doing it _safely_. "
         | 
         | Mercury through Apollo _really_ did not like the idea of using
         | solid rocket boosters, you can 't turn them off if things get
         | out of hand, and of course they'll do that themselves in lots
         | of failure modes. Suitable for a launch escape system ... and
         | see the Shuttle for when these principles were turned on their
         | head.
         | 
         | Its SRBs, now being literally recycled for Artemis were low
         | capital, high operating cost kludges that infamous killed one
         | shuttle and its crew. In part because there was no provision
         | made for escape aside from the pilots in the first couple of
         | launches or so and that was rather limited, SR-71 technology
         | with a pretty low max altitude.
         | 
         | On the other hand the Orion crew capsule does have a tower
         | escape system.
         | 
         | So that old NASA you decry, they didn't lose a crew except on
         | the ground due to a high pressure test with pure oxygen!?!?!!
         | OK, that's a credible validation of that part of your thesis,
         | see also Apollo 13 which was a close call.
         | 
         | On the other hand does the Orion have a heavy shield for the
         | astronauts to shelter behind in case of a solar storm (see
         | Heinlein's _Podkayne of Mars_ )? If not Apollo and the Artemis
         | program are every bit as dangerous in what was a primary reason
         | Nixon stopped Apollo before all its planned missions, program
         | delays would have extended it into the change in the solar
         | cycle.
         | 
         | I would also note the start of this program _many_ years ago
         | was so badly designed the booster system 's vibrations would
         | have been lethal to humans. Springs in the crew capsule were
         | part of the proposed solution to that, but going back to
         | Shuttle diameter SRBs, only adding one segment, and all the
         | mass of the tank and SSMEs should have fixed that. If my memory
         | is correct that was a rocket powered by a single stack of SRBs,
         | purely for sending crews out into space.
         | 
         | But I'd like to know what happened after the Shuttle and it to
         | make NASA take crew safety seriously. NASA was utterly callous
         | about the known risk from the launch that killed the second
         | shuttle and its crew.
         | 
         | I finish by noting a bit of humility is warranted after just a
         | single test mission success. That NASA and its contractors were
         | able to pull it off is quite a feat, but as the Shuttle should
         | have taught us bad designs can eventually catch up with you.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Ok, but doesn't that mean we will be surpassed left and right
         | by nations who don't care (as much) about safety?
        
           | jackmott wrote:
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | It's not a big deal, because it's so expensive it's a dead end.
         | The problem has always been making human space flight cheap
         | enough that it can lead to activities with positive return. The
         | Apollo and Shuttle eras failed in that respect. SLS, by not
         | reducing launch costs, continues in that sad and aggravating
         | tradition.
        
           | LightG wrote:
           | Well, the US needed alternatives to Russian rockets, hence
           | SpaceX and SLS.
           | 
           | Now NASA need alternatives to Musk, so SLS is a good back up
           | option.
           | 
           | * canned laughter *
           | 
           | (only semi joking considering his Ukraine starlink BS)
        
             | imglorp wrote:
             | Setting aside his BS, there's a chasm of difference between
             | SpaceX and SLS: it's process.
             | 
             | SLS designs ONE (mostly) disposable ship, per year, max,
             | taking a decade to integrate and realize. Epic Waterfall.
             | They have several concurrent pipelines.
             | 
             | Meanwhile SpaceX designs a reusable ship factory. Scalable
             | to as many a year as you can afford.
        
               | LightG wrote:
               | I know. But it's still space travel at the whim of a
               | BS'er.
               | 
               | Hence, the need for a back up or private competitor.
               | Ideally as efficient. If not, then at almost any cost is
               | the only alternative (NASA).
        
           | matheusmoreira wrote:
           | The massive cost comes from defeating gravity and getting
           | stuff off of this planet. Cost reductions probably won't
           | happen until the ISS turns into an orbital city with
           | spacecraft manufacturing capabilities. The JWST engineers
           | talked about the importance of building future telescopes and
           | spacecrafts in space, it's a very important technological
           | milestone for humanity.
           | 
           | Mass drivers and orbital elevators are common in fiction but
           | I don't know what the scientific consensus is on the
           | viability of such structures.
        
             | Gwypaas wrote:
             | The Falcon 9 is ~500 tons of propellant for 25 tons to LEO.
             | An A380 carries ~250 tons of fuel. In the Falcon 9 number
             | the liquid oxygen is included. The RP-1 is a pretty much a
             | cleaner diesel or jet fuel.
             | 
             | The cost is like $1500 to $2000 per ton so like $500 000 to
             | $1 000 000 in fuel costs for a launch.
             | 
             | Fuel costs are still trivial compared to building and
             | operating the rocket and is where huge reductions are
             | possible.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Your argument is obviously wrong. If that were the case,
             | all launch systems would have the same cost per kg, since
             | they all are operating on the same planet with the same
             | gravity.
             | 
             | But in fact, the minimum cost imposed by gravity (the
             | energy needed to get into space) is incredibly low. The
             | minimum fuel cost is a very small fraction of the cost of
             | launching with current launch vehicles. The costs come from
             | expendability and manufacturing and non-fuel operating
             | costs. None of these are dictated by gravity.
        
               | FPGAhacker wrote:
               | There is a cost in mass. Rockets today are essentially a
               | giant fuel tank with a few engines connected to one side
               | and cargo connected to the other side.
               | 
               | Every kg of fuel is a kg of cargo you can't launch.
               | That's the cost.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | None of that justifies claiming the cost is due to
               | gravity. The problem of getting to space is obviously
               | affected by gravity, but the cost is dictated by other
               | considerations. It's not like "oh well, gravity, we might
               | as well give up because it's not possible to do much
               | better."
        
               | FPGAhacker wrote:
               | > None of that justifies claiming the cost is due to
               | gravity.
               | 
               | Where do you suppose the need for so much energy comes
               | from?
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Why do you think the cost of launch is due to the cost of
               | energy?
        
               | DarmokJalad1701 wrote:
               | Congressional mandates forcing NASA to use Space Shuttle
               | components for the SLS that are de facto non-competitive,
               | single-source requirements assuring contracts to existing
               | Shuttle suppliers is contributing significantly to the
               | costs.
               | 
               | For example, the NASA contract to Aerojet Rocketdyne to
               | manufacture RS-25 engines is costing $146 million _per
               | engine_. Each SLS launch will toss four of these engines
               | in the ocean for a total cost $580 million. And that 's
               | _just_ the engines of the core stage. For the cost of a
               | single engine, they could have instead purchased an
               | entire Falcon Heavy launch, which has two-thirds of the
               | SLS lift capacity (and has to obey the same laws of
               | physics as SLS).
               | 
               | SLS is the price NASA had to pay to get Congress off its
               | back.
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | Why would the US congress mandate stuff like this?
        
               | ambicapter wrote:
               | Because US congress is made up of elected
               | representatives, and each representative is incentivized
               | to do so by the desire for re-election.
        
               | FeepingCreature wrote:
               | It's more that the cost in money doesn't come from the
               | cost in energy.
        
               | humaniania wrote:
               | Why do they launch from sea level instead of a high
               | elevation?
        
               | sophacles wrote:
               | The goal of the rocket is to get the payload high enough
               | to be in space AND fast enough to be in orbit. It's the
               | later that takes most of the fuel, IIUC.
        
               | Aperocky wrote:
               | It is not wrong, you can reduce the cost but it will
               | never be economical simply due to the gravity well.
               | 
               | > the minimum cost imposed by gravity (the energy needed
               | to get into space) is incredibly low.
               | 
               | This is straight up false.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Nope, you're completely wrong. Do the math. Propellant
               | cost is a tiny fraction of the cost of a launch, even on
               | the partially reusable Falcons.
        
               | Aperocky wrote:
               | That fraction is still larger than the economical
               | utilization of space.
               | 
               | Think about how little propellant it takes to move
               | products on Earth. And that's not even counting for the
               | fact that transport vehicles on Earth runs a heavy
               | percentage of its life time while a rocket does not do
               | that. Even Falcons spend most of their time getting ready
               | or recycled and not on an ascend or descend trajectory.
               | 
               | Any real trade will not happen at these gravity tax
               | rates.
        
               | epicureanideal wrote:
               | But a 747 needs continued fuel to keep going whereas once
               | on target a spacecraft can use its initial velocity to
               | travel much much further.
        
               | iso1631 wrote:
               | Well it's technically correct. To get a 100kg object from
               | the surface to a 100km Karman line needs about 30kWh of
               | power. That's the same order of magnitude as travelling
               | 100km sideways in an electric vehicle.
               | 
               | At 20c/kWh it would cost $100 to lift a 2 ton car and 4
               | occupants into space, or $100 each to get to the c. 400km
               | altitude of the ISS.
               | 
               | Of course to _stay_ in space requires far more energy as
               | you also have to go sideways, fast. Very Fast.
               | 
               | But it's still pretty low. Sticking 1kg into
               | Geostationary Orbit and keeping it there would take about
               | 15kWh. A 2 ton vehicle with 4 passengers at 20c/kWh would
               | be $1500 each.
               | 
               | Of course we lack a practical way of doing this other
               | than with rockets, and thus enter the tyranny of the
               | rocket equation. But the fuel cost is still far lower
               | than the cost of the entire shuttle or apollo system, as
               | shown by the efficiency of SpaceX -- fuel costs of $20/kg
               | to LEO, or $1500 for a typical adult.
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | You're comparing rocket engines designed to operate in a
               | vacuum to electric vehicles designed to operate on the
               | ground. Rocket engines need a lot more fuel to generate
               | that amount of power.
        
               | Aperocky wrote:
               | kWH of power and its cost does not translate here, your
               | kWh of power does not have any specific impulse.
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | How is it wrong? Everything I've ever read about the
               | subject says that because of the rocket equation you need
               | massive amounts of fuel to lift up the fuel itself and
               | the payload to get off the ground and into orbit. In
               | order to burn that fuel, you need complex multistage
               | rockets which require expensive materials and precision
               | manufacturing.
               | 
               | Of course it's expensive. Surely if these things were
               | built in space instead engineers would be able to build
               | simpler, cheaper spacecrafts.
        
               | sfifs wrote:
               | Rocket books are written by scientists, not economists or
               | MBAs. Elon Musk's major innovation with SpaceX was to
               | look at it from a business & economic angle rather than
               | the angle of scientists or millitary industrial complex
               | which thrives on Cost Plus contracts.
               | 
               | It turns out fuel cost rarely exceeds 10% of the cost of
               | launch even with the tyranny of rocket equation.
               | Traditional expendable rockets (including SLS)
               | essentially throw away 90% of the cost of each launch -
               | hence the push by SpaceX to some of the fuel to try and
               | land the first stage.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Rockets are not expensive because they use lots of fuel.
               | Sit down and actually compute how much propellant is
               | needed, and how much it costs. It's CHEAP, especially if
               | you use LOX + hydrocarbons (as Falcon 9 and Heavy do).
               | 
               | The actual amount of energy needed to reach LEO is about
               | the same as the amount of energy needed to send the same
               | mass to New Zealand from the US by airliner.
               | 
               | The reason launch is expensive is because the launchers
               | were thrown away. SpaceX radically reduced the cost by
               | reusing the first stage multiple times. And there's more
               | juice to be squeezed from that lemon, as the second stage
               | is still being expended.
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | > The actual amount of energy needed to reach LEO is
               | about the same as the amount of energy needed to send the
               | same mass to New Zealand from the US by airliner.
               | 
               | Yeah but rockets use a lot more fuel mass compared to
               | aircraft whose engines are airbreathing. Rocket engines
               | need to carry their own oxygen in the fuel tanks and are
               | less efficient as a result. Surely fuel costs are no
               | trivial concern.
               | 
               | > The reason launch is expensive is because the launchers
               | were thrown away.
               | 
               | Well I agree that it's stupid to just throw away the
               | rockets into the ocean but I thought NASA just didn't
               | have the capability to reuse them. A comment below says
               | the US congress forced them to reuse old parts which
               | makes no sense to me.
        
           | kunai wrote:
           | At the very least, Artemis is a functional space launch
           | system with exceptional reliability and predictability
           | despite its insane costs. The wasted billions are an
           | embarrassment, but far less so now that we know a) the thing
           | works, and works pretty darned well and b) it is, for now,
           | the only game in town in its class.
           | 
           | Starship is an interesting project with a lot of ambitious
           | goals, but it is far behind schedule in terms of development
           | and the Raptors are suffering from a lot of issues that
           | Merlins didn't have due to SpaceX's inexperience with
           | cryogenic fuels.
           | 
           | So the question to be asked is: do we want an pricey but
           | reliable and proven solution _now_ , or do we hold out for
           | years in the promise of some intangible futurist idea that
           | will likely take far longer than anticipated to become a
           | viable solution for crewed travel? If your answer is B, then
           | it's fairly obvious you're less interested in the rapid
           | progression of space travel writ large and more interested in
           | ensuring a project you favor wins out.
           | 
           | In a perfect world, SLS would be a rapidly reusable rocket
           | with 5 RS-25s, an inflatable heatshield, F-1 derived liquid
           | boosters, and landing legs. But that's not the world we live
           | in, and something > nothing, in my opinion. And I also find
           | it important to put the price of SLS/Artemis in context to
           | other far more wasteful government projects that produce no
           | surplus economic value for people, like the F-35 program or
           | the B-21 (questionable benefit over existing defense
           | systems). In that context, SLS is almost utilitarian,
           | providing valuable scientific jobs to engineers and
           | scientists, while propelling the way to the Moon for this
           | generation's astronauts and explorers.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Exceptional reliability? How can you possibly claim that?
             | Reliability comes from working out all the unknown
             | unknowns, and that comes only from experience.
             | 
             | Starship is not needed to condemn SLS. Falcon 9 and Falcon
             | Heavy are sufficient to render SLS uncompetitive and
             | unneeded.
             | 
             | In a perfect world, SLS would have had a stake driven
             | through its corrupt programmatic heart years ago.
        
               | zardo wrote:
               | In a perfect (space policy) world, SLS wouldn't have had
               | major components determined by the legislature. It's
               | extremely expensive because that's what the legislature
               | asked for, a single use rocket built using super
               | expensive engines designed for a reusable rocket.
        
               | twiddling wrote:
               | the legislature asks for federal pork to be spread across
               | as many Congressional districts as possible
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | I would not consider SLS extremely reliable and
             | predictable.
             | 
             | The Falcon 9 has a farther greater claim to that.
        
             | moloch-hai wrote:
             | SLS scrubbed numerous launches for random failures. The
             | final actual launch was performed only after a team of
             | technicians worked on a problem in strict violation of
             | safety procedures, waived for the occasion.
             | 
             | The only way to measure reliability is experience, and
             | there has been exactly one (1) launch. It will take another
             | 20 to get a good reliability figure, and we won't get that:
             | we cannot afford to ever launch that many.
        
             | themgt wrote:
             | Weird take since NASA's Artemis page on landing humans on
             | the Moon opens with a giant rendering of Starship on the
             | Moon[1] and their plan[2] for getting to the Moon involves
             | ~6-8 Starship launches plus orbital refueling against 1 SLS
             | launch. So NASA's Artemis program leadership doesn't seem
             | to assess that Starship is "some intangible futurist idea"
             | that won't work anytime soon due to engines/fuel/etc.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.nasa.gov/content/about-human-landing-
             | systems-dev...
             | 
             | [2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/
             | d9/Ar...
        
             | _dain_ wrote:
             | >Artemis is a functional space launch system with
             | exceptional reliability and predictability
             | 
             | is this a joke? you couldn't pay me enough money to take a
             | ride in it.
             | 
             | the thing has been into space _once_. where are you getting
             | this  "exceptional reliability" idea from?
        
             | derekp7 wrote:
             | The thing for me is that we (humanity that is) already know
             | how to safely land a rocket booster and reuse it. SLS has
             | been in development for quite a while, and lots of funding.
             | So why aren't recovering the boosters part of the program?
             | The most likely answer is that no one on the funding /
             | direction side thought it was worth while, or possible, at
             | a time when that could be engineered into the system. The
             | cynic in me feels that there is more profit to be made in
             | throwing away the boosters. I wonder if the true answer is
             | somewhere in between?
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | The purpose of SLS was to funnel money to particular
               | contractors and facilities. It's not just that there's
               | more money to be made by inefficiency; it's that the
               | entire purpose of SLS is inefficiency. That it might
               | achieve anything in space is entirely beside the point.
        
               | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
               | Some people have called the SLS the Senate Launch System.
        
             | TinkersW wrote:
             | SLS was also even further behind in development that
             | Starship is... it was supposed to fly before Falcon Heavy.
             | Also the next SLS flight isn't now, but more like 2 years
             | from now... Starship might very well by flying by then(it
             | better be given that NASA plans to use it as the lander).
             | 
             | Not sure where you got the idea F-35/B-21 are questionable
             | benefit over existing systems from(we don't know enough
             | about B-21 to say this, and F-35 seems to have proven
             | itself by now).
        
           | no_wizard wrote:
           | Isn't the true "ideal" a space elevator so you can
           | continously deliver between the moon and the earth without
           | having to burn lots of resources every single time?
           | 
           | Shouldn't that be what we optimize for in the long run? Its
           | the only way I can think of that space cargo becomes
           | economical. Then you can ship raw material up to the Moon and
           | build from there, launch from there etc. and vice versa.
           | 
           | Maybe we'll see what Helium-3 can do for humans at that point
        
             | matheusmoreira wrote:
             | Yeah, a space elevator would be the most efficient way lift
             | payloads to space where it's a lot easier to maneuver.
             | Anyone knowledgeable about space elevators on HN? I wonder
             | why it's never been attempted.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | There are currently insurmountable materials science
               | limitations, and even the materials that come close are
               | not currently possible to manufacture at scale, or even
               | assemble (one carbon nanotubes does not necessarily have
               | the same properties of many carbon nanotubes) at scale
               | into structures which will withstand the structural
               | stresses. I believe this is not necessarily true for
               | other celestial objects besides the earth
        
               | Smaug123 wrote:
               | For example, Pluto and Charon is a pair that sometimes
               | comes up; a space elevator connecting Pluto to Charon
               | would very possibly just about be within our current
               | civilisation's capabilities, if for some reason we cared
               | to build one enough to sink the Earth's economic output
               | into it. They're tidally locked.
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator has its
               | section on "Extraterrestrial elevators".)
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | A space elevator for our own moon would be far more
               | interesting to me. It could be built with known
               | materials.
        
               | skykooler wrote:
               | We do not have any known materials which are anywhere
               | near strong enough on the macro scale for a space
               | elevator on Earth. If we did, we would still need to
               | launch it into space using conventional rockets in the
               | first place, which would cost trillions of dollars at
               | current launch prices and require solving a bunch of new
               | issues (if it's launched in segments, how do you join
               | them together at full strength in space? if it isn't, how
               | do you coordinate ten thousand rockets to launch into
               | orbit simultaneously - and where do you launch them all
               | from?) Once it's in space, you have the issue that it
               | necessarily will need to be above the equator, which
               | every satellite in space crosses twice per orbit - and
               | there's no good way to make a structure as large as a
               | space elevator try to dodge things, so it _also_ needs to
               | be strong enough that it can handle impacts from space
               | debris or derelict satellites at orbital velocities
               | without weakening to the point that it breaks.
               | 
               | And then of course you need to supply power to anything
               | climbing it - which is an immense amount of energy
               | required to climb 30,000+ miles vertically - and there's
               | no practical way of sending that energy up the cable
               | itself (you could do it with superconductors, but the
               | power requirements for cooling thirty thousand miles of
               | superconducting cable is more than many nations consume).
               | One option is to use microwaves to beam power to the
               | climber, but this is currently only theoretical, and
               | raises further materials science issues with the
               | microwaves heating up the cable along its length.
               | 
               | Finally, _having_ a space elevator is a massive hazard to
               | the Earth in general. If most structures on Earth fail,
               | the damage is limited to a small area where the structure
               | stands. If a space elevator ever fails for any reason, it
               | would wrap around the equator as it fell, releasing the
               | equivalent of two Hiroshima bomb every mile along the
               | equator as its kinetic energy is rapidly converted into
               | heat. It 's not quite as bad as the asteroid that wiped
               | out the dinosaurs, but it would still be enough to
               | significantly alter the climate and wipe out at least
               | half a billion people from the impact alone. It's not a
               | project that should be undertaken lightly.
        
         | qbasic_forever wrote:
         | It blew my mind to find out the first crewed mission to launch
         | on the Saturn V (Apollo 8) flew all the way out and around the
         | moon. No low earth orbit shakedown or anything, just straight
         | to the moon (without landing). A few more launches tested they
         | could dock with the LM and then Apollo 11 just went for it back
         | to the moon and landing. The pace they went at is pretty
         | unbelievable today.
        
           | Aperocky wrote:
           | True YOLO moment.
           | 
           | It's a miracle that everyone that went to the Moon returned
           | unscathed.
        
           | five82 wrote:
           | I believe Apollo 8 was originally supposed to be a low earth
           | orbit shakedown with the LEM. Because the LEM wasn't ready,
           | they decided to send them to the moon.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | I have to dispute that doing it more safely is a worthwhile
         | goal for SLS.
         | 
         | It's useful to think about safety issues in terms of the
         | statistical value of a human life. This is how much one should
         | be willing to spend to save one expected life. It's a vital
         | number for planning purposes. For example, should we install a
         | guard rail at this corner? Is controlling this release of this
         | chemical justifiable? Compute if the cost is less than the
         | expected value of lives saved. If so, spend the money, if not,
         | don't.
         | 
         | The usual statistical value of a human life is around $10M. And
         | you immediately see the problem: a rocket that costs $1B to
         | launch is, in effect, killing 100 statistical people just by
         | being launched. If the result of the launch is valuable enough
         | to justify that mathematical carnage, wouldn't it also justify
         | subjecting the astronauts to real risk? Conversely, if it's
         | worth delaying a launch to reduce the risk to astronauts, is
         | the launch really worth having spent all that money on at all?
         | 
         | The space program has been caught in an internal contradiction,
         | where the purported benefits are claimed to justify large
         | expenditures, but not claimed to justify risking astronauts.
         | And this makes no sense.
         | 
         | To actually justify reducing astronaut risks, launch and
         | mission costs must first be greatly reduced.
        
           | toast0 wrote:
           | I don't think the usual statistical value applies to an
           | astronaut, especially an astronaut on a mission.
           | 
           | At least, the loss to NASA will be much more. For one,
           | they're going to spend a ton of money on investigagions. For
           | another, it could significantly impact their future budget,
           | and their ability to hire. It would depend on the details of
           | the deadly incident though.
        
           | matheusmoreira wrote:
           | Would people want to board a spacecraft built by people with
           | this mindset?
        
       | interestica wrote:
       | NASA really doesn't do a great job at getting people excited
       | about these missions. This was such a perfect opportunity to
       | include _anything_ to make the trip more accessible to general
       | audiences. High quality Video footage? VR capture? The NASA feeds
       | have been long low-quality videos.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | ojbyrne wrote:
       | Weird and confusing comma insertion.
        
       | ytdytvhxgydvhh wrote:
       | Is there a town in California called Baja? Or does someone at
       | NASA not understand that Baja California is a state in Mexico?
        
         | CogitoCogito wrote:
         | > Is there a town in California called Baja? Or does someone at
         | NASA not understand that Baja California is a state in Mexico?
         | 
         | I'd presume it was a mistake.
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | > _Or does someone at NASA not understand that Baja California
         | is a state in Mexico?_
         | 
         | I think they understand perfectly, and the capsule splashed
         | down "off the coast" of "state of Mexico".
         | 
         | No different from saying "The capsule splashed down off the
         | coast of British Colombia" or "The capsule splashed down off
         | the coast of Queensland".
         | 
         | They know perfectly well what Baja California is and where it
         | is.
        
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