[HN Gopher] The End of Blitzscaling
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       The End of Blitzscaling
        
       Author : ycafrica
       Score  : 51 points
       Date   : 2022-12-07 12:51 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (collabfund.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (collabfund.com)
        
       | deltree7 wrote:
       | Besides obvious flaws in the article, let's assume that there is
       | general "Blitzscaling is dead" phenomenon going around. That is
       | exactly the time to Blitzscale.
       | 
       | On a separate note, this is exactly the time to double-down
       | manufacturing in China and supply-chain homogeneity.
        
       | muststopmyths wrote:
       | I have to say this reads like the Malcolm gladwell parody from
       | the other day where a parallel is drawn between two completely
       | unrelated things.
        
         | niclot wrote:
         | Would make for a funny chatgpt prompt
        
       | candyman wrote:
       | I never considered that "Blitzscaling" was ever really a thing.
       | Just a another buzzword in the Valley echo chamber.
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | For quick overview read: https://hbr.org/2016/04/blitzscaling
        
       | subradios wrote:
       | It's missing something essential to blitzscaling. It's not just
       | cheap capital, although it helps.
       | 
       | The presence of the internet and the amount software can improve
       | everything created a business model of "add software to it!" And
       | suddenly your TAM was "the entire physical universe".
       | 
       | Encouraging the strategy was the fact that add software to it is
       | a _very dumb idea_ , so anyone can have it. The way to win is to
       | get bigger than your opponents, faster.
       | 
       | We are only in the middle of this trend.
        
       | barry-cotter wrote:
       | The end of New York's sustained growth was a policy decision, not
       | something that just happened so it's a particularly bad example.
       | It was a massive unforced error, like the Chinese government
       | going after all its internet giants with a hammer. If you have an
       | engine of economic growth you don't deliberately hobble it.
        
         | yunwal wrote:
         | > If you have an engine of economic growth you don't
         | deliberately hobble it
         | 
         | Why not? NYCs economy is already plenty large. It's not clear
         | to me that adding thousands of extra hypergrowth startups to
         | the mix does anything to actually improve the city. Just more
         | transplant office workers, many who don't really like NYC, and
         | don't really gain much from living in the cultural center of
         | the US.
        
         | Throwawayaerlei wrote:
         | "a massive unforced error, like the Chinese government going
         | after all its internet giants with a hammer"
         | 
         | Depends on who's viewpoint you're talking about. The Xi and CCP
         | are so far presumably very happy with the results, because
         | those companies are no longer much of a threat to their power.
         | 
         | Who made the decisions to end New York's sustained growth?
        
       | simonebrunozzi wrote:
       | Misleading title. Blitzscaling is just about a specific strategy
       | for growth; it has almost nothing to do with the main point of
       | the article: oversupply of office space removes future plans for
       | office space, and eventually makes your office supply very scarce
       | and therefore valuable.
        
         | fullshark wrote:
         | I think he's talking about companies primarily, and office
         | space is the analogy (building offices analogous to building
         | companies). Thus that company you built in the times of cheap
         | money may not be profitable for a while, but its now got fewer
         | competitors to deal with.
        
           | lumost wrote:
           | This is more or less tech in the oughts. There were a few
           | booming companies like FB and Goog. Everyone else was riding
           | investment from the 90s.
           | 
           | We'll see how it plays out in the next few years, but I
           | wouldn't be surprised to see companies slow down R&D to
           | capture profitability. In 5 years they may be too slow to
           | innovate
        
           | rancar2 wrote:
           | Agreed with this sentiment. If the author clarified the
           | relationships and examples more explicitly as you and the og
           | have done, that would strengthen the writing/ideas.
        
       | romanhn wrote:
       | Not a very convincing article. I don't think risky VC investments
       | are going anywhere. This downturn is just s blip in the big
       | scheme of things, and as expectations of long-term economic
       | growth are built into so many things we do (e.g., buy-and-hold
       | investing), expectations of "bigness" are extremely likely to
       | return. And a new cycle will be born.
        
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       (page generated 2022-12-11 23:02 UTC)