[HN Gopher] Comparing Google and ChatGPT
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Comparing Google and ChatGPT
        
       Author : xezzed
       Score  : 203 points
       Date   : 2022-12-01 15:38 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
       | Google is only "done" if you never actually use it to find sites
       | on the web. For nearly all of these examples I was thinking "WHY
       | DON'T YOU JUST TRY CLICKING THE TOP LINK?" E.g. the first link
       | for writing differential equations in LaTeX, I thought the first
       | result, https://priyankacool10.wordpress.com/2013/10/15/writing-
       | diff... , provided excellent, helpful examples.
       | 
       | That is, if anything, I'd be quite satisfied with Google getting
       | back to being a _search engine_ and not just trying to bypass all
       | the results that actually come back.
        
         | j2kun wrote:
         | The LaTeX examples given by ChatGPT are also... strange? Nobody
         | would write the same differential equation twice with two
         | different notations right after each other (it uses y' and
         | dy/dx in two stacked aligned equations)
        
       | drchopchop wrote:
       | It's great, until people realize GPT-3 will generate answers that
       | are demonstrably wrong. (And to make matters worse, can't
       | show/link the source of the incorrect information!)
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | Just wait until spammers/marketers figure out SEO for GPT-3
         | type systems to make their products/services more prominent.
         | It's going to be a shit show.
        
         | nneonneo wrote:
         | As a simple example: the brainfuck example
         | (https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598063705471995904) is
         | just entirely wrong, full stop. The comments do not match the
         | code, and the algorithm is fractally wrong. Some examples: the
         | algorithm does not perform variable-distance moves so it can't
         | actually handle arrays; the comparison test is just entirely
         | wrong and performs only a decrement; the code that claims to
         | copy an element just moves the pointer back and forth without
         | changing anything; etc. etc.
        
           | wittycardio wrote:
           | Yeah LLMs are fun and can be useful but they are full of
           | garbage and dangerous in production. Suspect that part will
           | never be solved and their use cases will remain restricted to
           | toys
        
           | disqard wrote:
           | ...but it _appears_ to be correct, as long as you glance at
           | it (and don 't have the time and/or expertise to actually
           | read it).
           | 
           | We're clearly in the phase of society where "Appearance of
           | Having" is all that matters.
           | 
           | > The spectacle is the inverted image of society in which
           | relations between commodities have supplanted relations
           | between people, in which "passive identification with the
           | spectacle supplants genuine activity".
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Society_of_the_Spectacle
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | So does google. Always great when you a blurb (or a summary of
         | a link) telling you to drink bleach...
        
         | toasteros wrote:
         | Infinite Conversation[1] was linked on HN a while back and I
         | think it's a good example of this.
         | 
         | I'm not sure if it's GPT-3 but the "conversation" the two
         | philosophers have are littered with wrong information, such as
         | attributing ideas to the wrong people; ie it wouldn't be too
         | far fetched if they suggested that Marx was a film director.
         | 
         | The trouble with that incorrect information - and The Infinite
         | Conversation is an extreme example of this because of the
         | distinctive voices - is that it is presented with such
         | authority that it isn't very hard at all to perceive it as
         | perfectly credible; Zizek sitting there and telling me that
         | Marx was the greatest romcom director of all time, without even
         | a slight hint of sarcasm could easily gaslight me into
         | believing it.
         | 
         | Now, this example here isn't two robot philosophers having
         | coffee, but throw in a convincing looking chart or two and...
         | well I mean it works well enough when the communicator is
         | human, telling us that climate change isn't real.
         | 
         | [1] https://infiniteconversation.com/
        
         | gryf wrote:
         | To be fair so did my lecturers at university...
        
         | jtode wrote:
         | The same can said of Google, though with less entertainment
         | value.
         | 
         | For instance, somewhere in the bowels of wordpress.com, there
         | is an old old blog post that I wrote, on the topic my having
         | recently lost quite a bit of weight. The blog and the post are
         | still up. I called the post "On being somewhat less of a man".
         | 
         | Again, this blog post is live on the internet, right now. I
         | won't provide the link, it's not a thing I want to promote.
         | 
         | And yet, I just went and googled "on being somewhat less of a
         | man," and wouldn't you know it, Google cannot find a single
         | result for that query, in quotes. So you won't find it either.
         | 
         | I doubt GPT-3 would find it either, but it's very clear that
         | giant corporations who sell your attention for money are not
         | going to reliably give you what you're looking for and send you
         | - and your attention - on your merry way.
         | 
         | Google done? We can only hope.
        
           | knorker wrote:
           | Google probably blocked it as hate speech.
        
             | jtode wrote:
             | Lol yep
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | FWIW, Bing does find it.
        
             | jtode wrote:
             | For all their anticompetitive crap over the years, they
             | keep emerging as the company that still sort of has a soul,
             | in spite of having every reason to have long since
             | abandoned it...
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | And duckduckgo
        
         | bragr wrote:
         | >until people realize GPT-3 will generate answers that are
         | demonstrably wrong
         | 
         | It isn't like google never returns the wrong answer
        
           | bccdee wrote:
           | Almost all the GPT answers shown in the thread are subtly
           | incorrect, if not outright false. The brainfuck program is
           | utter nonsense. Conversely, I can expect Google's answers to
           | be passable most of the time.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | I just tried Googling "when did the moon explode?" to see if it
         | still gave authoritative answers to bogus questions:
         | 
         | > About an hour after sunset on June 18, 1178, the Moon
         | exploded.
         | 
         | "when did lincoln shoot booth"
         | 
         | > April 14, 1865
         | 
         | Mostly they seem to catch and stop this now, but there was a
         | fun brief period where it was popping up the fact-box for
         | whatever seemed closest to the search terms, so "when did neil
         | armstrong first walk on the earth" would have it confidently
         | assert "21 July 1969".
        
           | impulser_ wrote:
           | You are providing only a small part of the result. If you
           | provide the full result it make prefect sense why Google
           | would suggest it.
           | 
           | When you search "when did the moon explode?". The full result
           | is actually
           | 
           | > About an hour after sunset on June 18, 1178, the Moon
           | exploded. That's what it looked like to five terrified,
           | awestruck monks watching the skies over the abbey at
           | Canterbury, in southeastern England, anyway.
           | 
           | Which links to an article about the story. It a well known
           | story hence why it shows up when you search it.
           | 
           | When you search "when did lincoln shoot booth"
           | 
           | It doesnt say "Booth shot Lincoln in 1865". It literally
           | gives you a summary of the "Assassination of Abraham Lincoln"
           | with a link the Wikipedia.
           | 
           | Again to a human this is a perfectly fine result because if
           | you are search "When did Lincoln shoot Booth" and this shows
           | up you will realize oh im an idiot Linclon was actually shot
           | by Booth lol.
           | 
           | These are both better results then if GPT would suggest the
           | same with no proof. Google gives you a source for their
           | result.
        
             | bushbaba wrote:
             | Doesn't seem that crazy for a future iteration of GPT to
             | offer sources.
        
               | magicalist wrote:
               | That's a pretty different type of query and storage you'd
               | need, though.
        
           | brundolf wrote:
           | And on top of that- more and more web content (especially
           | dubious content) is going to start being _generated_ by these
           | kinds of models, which will bring down the quality of Google
           | results too
           | 
           | Maybe Google starts filtering down more aggressively to only
           | trusted sources (by domain or whatever else)- but could you
           | do the same thing with a model like this, to improve its
           | accuracy? Right now it's trained on the whole internet, but I
           | doubt it has to be. At that point it really is just a
           | competing indexing system
           | 
           | I bet you could even train it to find and list sources for
           | its claims
        
             | wolpoli wrote:
             | We'll all have to dig out our old copy of Encarta at some
             | point.
        
           | Toutouxc wrote:
           | > Is Python even or odd?
           | 
           | > The required code is provided below. num = int (input
           | ("Enter any number to test whether it is odd or even: ") if
           | (num % 2) == 0: print ("The number is even") else: print
           | ("The provided number is odd") Output: Enter any number to
           | test whether it is odd or even: 887 887 is odd.
           | 
           | The first sentence is not my query, it's a question that
           | Google offers and answers in their useless box.
        
           | yamtaddle wrote:
           | "Tell me more about your cousins," Rorschach sent.
           | 
           | "Our cousins lie about the family tree," Sascha replied,
           | "with nieces and nephews and Neandertals. We do not like
           | annoying cousins."
           | 
           | "We'd like to know about this tree."
           | 
           | Sascha muted the channel and gave us a look that said _Could
           | it be any more obvious_?  "It couldn't have parsed that.
           | There were three linguistic ambiguities in there. It just
           | ignored them."
           | 
           | "Well, it asked for clarification," Bates pointed out.
           | 
           | "It asked a follow-up question. Different thing entirely."
           | 
           | [....]
           | 
           | "Sascha," Bates breathed. "Are you crazy?"
           | 
           | "So what if I am? Doesn't matter to that thing. It doesn't
           | have a clue what I'm saying."
           | 
           | "What?"
           | 
           | "It doesn't even have a clue what it's saying back," she
           | added.
           | 
           | "Wait a minute. You said--Susan said they weren't parrots.
           | They knew the rules."
           | 
           | And there Susan was, melting to the fore: "I did, and they
           | do. But pattern-matching doesn't equal comprehension." Bates
           | shook her head. "You're saying whatever we're talking to--
           | it's not even intelligent?"
           | 
           | "Oh, it could be intelligent, certainly. But we're not
           | talking to it in any meaningful sense."
           | 
           | -- Peter Watts, _Blindsight_
           | 
           | https://rifters.com/real/Blindsight.htm
        
           | rtkwe wrote:
           | At least there it's still linking to the original source
           | where the information is contextualized or correct. GPT-3
           | will just spit out an answer with no links so you either
           | trust it got it right or you go to google to confirm it
           | basically eliminating the reason to go to GPT in the first
           | place.
        
             | sho_hn wrote:
             | Until the source Google points at is a GPT-generated text.
             | 
             | Do we have models yet that identify GPT responses vs.
             | human-authored text? :-)
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | Sure some day but as far as I understand it there's an
               | "authoritativeness" measure for the info box so there's
               | still a hurdle to get through to become the info box
               | answer.
        
           | sagarpatil wrote:
           | ChatGPT: The moon has not exploded. The moon is a celestial
           | body that orbits the Earth and is a natural satellite of our
           | planet. It is made up of rock and dust and has no atmosphere,
           | water, or life. While the moon has undergone many changes
           | over its long history, it has never exploded.
        
         | CommieBobDole wrote:
         | I ran across a site a while back which just seems to be common
         | questions fed to GPT-3; the answers all make perfect
         | grammatical sense, but they're also hilariously wrong. A bunch
         | of middle school kids are probably going to get an F on their
         | papers and simultaneously learn something about the importance
         | of verifying information found on the internet.
         | 
         | https://knologist.com/has-any-rover-landed-on-venus/
         | 
         | "The average car on Venus lasts around 5000 miles, but some
         | cars last up to 10 times that."
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | 29athrowaway wrote:
           | Just wait a couple of years. You are not thinking fourth-
           | dimensionally.
        
             | crummy wrote:
             | Like, once half the text that GPT7 is trained on was
             | generated by GPT1-6?
        
             | quacked wrote:
             | I think I agree with you. Who could predict the
             | functionality of the iPhone 14 from the iPod and the
             | Blackberry?
        
           | solarkraft wrote:
           | This is going to confuse so many people.
           | 
           | I hope traditional cross-checking methods will continue to
           | work.
        
         | scrollaway wrote:
         | Yeah exactly.
         | 
         | Here's a thread by Grant Sanderson (Math youtuber 3Blue1Brown),
         | with some.. interesting... examples.
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/3blue1brown/status/1598256290765377537
         | 
         | This one especially made me laugh:
         | https://twitter.com/dgbrazales/status/1598262662739419138
        
         | martin_bech wrote:
         | Google already does this
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | Not just that, but the very first example in the thread being
         | used to demonstrate the capabilities of GPT-3 _is_ in fact
         | wrong, or at least way off-topic, and omitted valuable
         | information that Google succinctly includes.
         | 
         | Specifically, GPT-3 tells the asker to use an align*
         | environment to write a differential equation, but this is not
         | usually necessary, and the presence of the * makes it
         | unnumbered, which may not be desirable and anyway isn't made
         | clear. Google included, and GPT-3 omitted, the use of the
         | \partial symbol for a partial differential equation, which
         | while not _always_ necessary, is definitely something I reach
         | for more often than alignment. Furthermore, the statement
         | "This will produce the following output:" should obviously be
         | followed by an image or PDF or something, although that
         | formatting may not be available; it certainly should _not_ be
         | followed by the same source code!
         | 
         | And personally, I usually find that reading a shorter
         | explanation costs less of my mental energy.
        
         | Tepix wrote:
         | Exactly, i talked to ChatGPT and it gave me a lot of wrong
         | information in an authorative tone. I consider it dangerous as-
         | is.
        
           | seydor wrote:
           | Ah, they 've been Galactica'ed already
        
           | uoaei wrote:
           | It would fit right in here on HN.
        
             | WandaVision wrote:
             | No. Unlike ChatGPT HN has error correcting system build in
             | it. Like this comment.
        
           | adamsmith143 wrote:
           | Turns out humans do this all the time and they actually have
           | real power.
        
             | jerf wrote:
             | Yes they do, and I do not deny the power of human's ability
             | to confidently spew nonsense.
             | 
             | However, humans do have some known failure cases that help
             | us detect that. For instance, pressing the human on a
             | couple of details will generally show up all but the very
             | best bullshit artists; there is a limit to how fast humans
             | can make crap up. Some of us are decent at the con-game
             | aspects but it isn't too hard to poke through this limit on
             | how fast they can make stuff up.
             | 
             | Computers can confabulate at full speed for gigabytes at a
             | time.
             | 
             | Personally, I consider any GPT or GPT-like technology
             | _unsuitable for any application in which truth is
             | important_. Full stop. The technology fundamentally, in its
             | foundation, does not have any concept of truth, and there
             | is no obvious way to add one, either after the fact or in
             | its foundation. (Not saying there isn 't one, period, but
             | it certainly isn't the sort of thing you can just throw a
             | couple of interns at and get a good start on.)
             | 
             | "The statistically-most likely conclusion of this sentence"
             | isn't even a poor approximation of truth... it's just plain
             | unrelated. That is not what truth is. At least not with any
             | currently even _remotely_ feasible definition of
             | "statistically most likely" converted into math sufficient
             | to be implementable.
             | 
             | And I don't even mean "truth" from a metaphysical point of
             | view; I mean it in a more engineering sense. I wouldn't set
             | one of these up to do my customer support either. AI
             | Dungeon is about the epitome of the technology, in my
             | opinion, and generalized entertainment from playing with a
             | good text mangler. It really isn't good for much else.
        
               | lancesells wrote:
               | The thing I think about GPT and tools like Stable
               | Diffusion is do we as humanity need it? Do they add any
               | value to our current world outside of an achievement in
               | computer science? I don't think so but would love to hear
               | arguments about needing it.
        
               | adamsmith143 wrote:
               | Did we need digital painting tools? Paint and Easel
               | worked just fine. Did we need paint and easels? Cave
               | walls and clay pigments worked just fine. Do we need
               | Automobiles or Trains? Horses worked just fine. Etc. Etc.
               | Etc.
        
               | visarga wrote:
               | > Personally, I consider any GPT or GPT like technology
               | unsuitable for any application in which truth is
               | important . Full stop. The technology fundamentally, in
               | its foundation, does not have any concept of truth
               | 
               | I think you got it all wrong. Not all GPT-3 tasks are
               | "closed-book".
               | 
               | If you can fit in the context a piece of information,
               | then GPT-3 will take it into consideration. That means
               | you can do a search, get the documents into the prompt,
               | and then ask your questions. It will reference the text
               | and give you grounded answers. Of course you still need
               | to vet the sources of information you use, if you give it
               | false information into the context, it will give wrong
               | answers.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | This hangs on what it means to "take it into
               | consideration." If you gave me new information, I would
               | attempt to see it in context, evaluate its relevance, and
               | either update my positions accordingly or explain why I
               | do not see it making a difference. If I saw difficulties
               | doing this, I would ask for clarification, explaining
               | what it was that was seemed difficult or unclear.
               | 
               | As far as I can tell, there is no reason to think that
               | the way GPT-3 generates its responses could possibly
               | result in this happening - even the basic ability of
               | correctly inferring corollaries from a collection of
               | facts seems beyond what those methods could deliver,
               | except insofar as the _syntax_ of their expression
               | matches common patterns in the corpus of human language
               | use. And the empirical results so far, while being
               | impressive and thought-provoking in many ways, support
               | this skepticism.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | I don't think you're right. Even if you add "correct"
               | context, and in many of these cases "I can locate correct
               | context" already means the GPT-tech isn't adding much,
               | GPT still as absolutely no guard rails stopping it from
               | confabulating. It might confabulate something else, but
               | it still confabulating.
               | 
               | Fundamentally, GPT is a technology for building
               | convincing confabulations, and we _hope_ that if we keep
               | pounding on it and making it bigger we can get those
               | confabulations to converge on reality. I do not mean this
               | as an insult, I mean it as a reasonable description of
               | the underlying technology. This is, fundamentally, not a
               | sane way to build most of the systems I see people trying
               | to build with it. AI Dungeon is a good use because the
               | whole _point_ of AI Dungeon is to confabulate at scale.
               | This works with the strengths of GPT-like tech
               | (technically,  "transformer-based tech" is probably a
               | closer term but nobody knows what that is).
        
               | adamsmith143 wrote:
               | >Computers can confabulate at full speed for gigabytes at
               | a time.
               | 
               | This I think is the actual problem. Online forums will
               | likely be filled with AI generated BS in the very near
               | future, if not already.
               | 
               | >"The statistically-most likely conclusion of this
               | sentence" isn't even a poor approximation of truth...
               | it's just plain unrelated. That is not what truth is. At
               | least not with any currently even remotely feasible
               | definition of "statistically most likely" converted into
               | math sufficient to be implementable.
               | 
               | It's not necessarily clear that this isn't what Humans
               | are doing when answering factual questions.
               | 
               | >And I don't even mean "truth" from a metaphysical point
               | of view; I mean it in a more engineering sense. I
               | wouldn't set one of these up to do my customer support
               | either. AI Dungeon is about the epitome of the
               | technology, in my opinion, and generalized entertainment
               | from playing with a good text mangler. It really isn't
               | good for much else.
               | 
               | By the same logic how can we allow Humans to do those
               | jobs either? How many times has some distant call center
               | person told you "No sir there is definitely no way to fix
               | this problem" when there definitely was and the person
               | was just ignorant or wrong? We should be more concerned
               | with getting the error rate of these AI systems to human
               | level or better, which they already are in several other
               | domains so it's not clear they won't get to that level
               | soon.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | "By the same logic how can we allow Humans to do those
               | jobs either?"
               | 
               | First, since you can't see tone, let me acknowledge this
               | is a fair question, and this answer is in the spirit of
               | exploration and not "you should have known this" or
               | anything like that.
               | 
               | The answer is a spin on what I said in my first post.
               | Human failures have a shape to them. You cite an example
               | that is certainly common, and you and I know what it
               | means. Or at least, what it probabilistically means. It
               | is unfortunate if someone with lesser understanding calls
               | in and gets that answer, but at least they can learn.
               | 
               | If there were a perfect support system, that would be
               | preferable, but for now, this is as good as it gets.
               | 
               | A computer system will spin a much wider variety of
               | confabulated garbage, and it is much harder to tell the
               | difference between GPT text that is correct, GPT text
               | that is almost correct but contains subtle errors, and
               | GPT text that sounds very convincing but is totally
               | wrong. The problem isn't that humans are always right and
               | computers are always wrong; the problem is that the bar
               | for being able to tell if the answer is correct is quite
               | significantly raised for me as someone calling in for
               | GPT-based technologies.
        
             | majormajor wrote:
             | So if you're suggestion is that it's ok if computers are as
             | unreliable as humans, what's the point of computers, then?
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | The point is that they get better and they don't need to
               | be perfect.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | Nobody's shown a way yet to teach a computer how to tell
               | bullshit from facts and filter out the bullshit in it's
               | regurgitation/hallucination text creation stuff.
               | 
               | So until that happens, all you've done is let people put
               | bullshit-spewing humans in more places. People already
               | know not to necessarily trust humans, now they'll
               | (re)learn that about computer generated text. (It's
               | actually probably not clear to everyone what's computer-
               | generated text and human-generated text, so more likely,
               | specific places that rely on this will just be seen as
               | untrustworthy. "Create more untrustworthy sources of
               | text" is... underwhelming, honestly.)
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | > Nobody's shown a way yet to teach a computer how to
               | tell bullshit from facts and filter out the bullshit in
               | it's regurgitation/hallucination text creation stuff.
               | 
               | And yet they keep improving at every iteration. Also,
               | keep in mind that this objection will exist even if these
               | AI get near omniscience. People disagree with facts all
               | the time, usually for political motives. Therefore your
               | type of criticism won't ever be settled.
        
             | Tepix wrote:
             | Yes, just look at the twitter thread, most people are not
             | even noticing that the answers are wrong.
        
           | MollyRealized wrote:
           | Actually, the name of the entity is ChatGTP. It is stands for
           | General Translation Protocol, referencing translation from
           | the AI code and source information into a more generally
           | understandable English language.
           | 
           | (joking here)
        
           | neonate wrote:
           | What wrong information did it give you?
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | Not parent commenter, but it told me 1093575151355318117 is
             | not prime, but the product of 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23,
             | 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47, 53, 59, 61, 67, 71, 73, 79, 83, 89,
             | 97, and 101.
             | 
             | But 116431182179248680450031658440253681535 is not
             | 1093575151355318117.
             | 
             | There are some other math problems where it will
             | confidently do step by step and give you nonsense.
             | 
             | Edit: and see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33818443
             | and
             | https://twitter.com/dgbrazales/status/1598265067086442496
        
           | rafaelero wrote:
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | I mean it's not like it's dangerous on its own, but if
             | you're like "Hey GPT how do I put out a grease fire?" and
             | it replies "Pour water on it" and you believe it then
             | you're in for a bad time.
             | 
             | So I mean I guess you're technically right, it's not
             | dangerous so long as you have 0% confidence in anything it
             | says and consider it entertainment. But what would-be
             | scrappy Google competitor is gonna do that?
             | 
             | The thing that makes it particularly insidious is that it's
             | going to be right a lot, but being right means nothing when
             | there's nothing to go off of to figure out what case you're
             | in. If you actually had no idea when the Berlin Wall fell
             | and it spit out 1987 how would you disprove it? Probably go
             | ask a search engine.
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | I don't see the danger you are afraid of. The same
               | artifacts you are proposing (skepticism, verification)
               | should already be put in place with any pubic expert.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | Humans will generally either provide a confidence level
               | in their answers, or if they're consistently wrong,
               | you'll learn to disregard them.
               | 
               | If a computer is right every time you've asked a
               | question, then gives you the wrong answer in an emergency
               | like a grease fire, it's hard to have a defense against
               | that.
               | 
               | If you were asking your best friend, you'd have some
               | sense of how accurate they tend to be, and they'd
               | probably say something like "if I remember correctly" or
               | "I think" so you'll have a warning that they could easily
               | be wrong.
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | If the AI is correct 90% of the time, you can be
               | reasonably sure it will be correct next time. That's a
               | rational expectation. If you are at a high stake
               | situation, then even a 1% rate of false positive is too
               | high and you should definitely apply some verifications.
               | Again, I don't see the danger.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | Ultimately I think the danger is that the AI _sounds_
               | like it knows what it's talking about. It's very
               | authoritative. Anyone who presents content at that level
               | of detail with that level of confidence will be
               | convincing.
               | 
               | You can hear doubt when a presenter isn't certain of an
               | answer. You can see the body language. None of that is
               | present with an AI.
               | 
               | And most people don't know/care enough to do their own
               | research (or won't know where to find a more reliable
               | source, or won't have the background to evaluate the
               | source).
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | > You can hear doubt when a presenter isn't certain of an
               | answer. You can see the body language. None of that is
               | present with an AI.
               | 
               | This is not how people consume information nowadays
               | anyways. People just watch YouTube videos where
               | presenters don't face this kind of pressure. Or they read
               | some text on social media from someone they like.
               | 
               | Anyways, we can't rely on these social tips anymore. And
               | even if we could, they are not ideal, because they allow
               | bullshitters to thrive, whereas modestly confident people
               | end up ostracized.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | I've been thinking more about that over the last hour or
               | so, and I've come to the conclusion that different people
               | have different priorities, and I don't think there's much
               | we can do about that.
               | 
               | Whether it's nature, nurture, or experience, I strongly
               | distrust people who claim to have THE answer to any
               | complex problem, or who feel that it's better to bulldoze
               | other people than to be wrong.
               | 
               | I'll listen to truth seekers, but ignore truth havers.
               | 
               | However, clearly that's not a universal opinion. Many
               | people are happier believing in an authoritarian who has
               | all the answers. And I don't think that will ever change.
        
               | ctoth wrote:
               | Response from model The best way to put out a grease fire
               | is to use a fire extinguisher or baking soda. Do not use
               | water, as it could potentially cause the fire to spread
               | and worsen. If the fire is too large to be extinguished
               | by a fire extinguisher or baking soda, evacuate the area
               | and call 911 for assistance.
        
         | donio wrote:
         | And those answers are not just wrong but confidently wrong.
        
         | dougmwne wrote:
         | Fair point, but Google is also exactly as confidently wrong as
         | GTP. They are both based on Web scrapes of content from humans
         | after all, who are frequently confidently wrong.
        
           | drchopchop wrote:
           | Sure, but Google at least presents itself as being a search
           | engine, composed of potentially unreliable information
           | scraped from the web. GPT looks/feels like an infallible
           | oracle.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | disqard wrote:
             | This is an important point about GPT-based tools, and it
             | was one of the key parts that Galactica got wrong: it was
             | (over)sold as "an AI scientist", instead of "random crazy
             | thought generator for inspiration/playful ideation
             | assistance".
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | ChatGPT page every time you open it:
             | 
             | Limitations:
             | 
             | - May occasionally generate incorrect information
             | 
             | - May occasionally produce harmful instructions or biased
             | content
             | 
             | - Limited knowledge of world and events after 2021
             | 
             | Hacker News, on reading this list of caveats:
             | 
             | This looks and feels like an infallible oracle.
        
           | bccdee wrote:
           | No it isn't. When Google gives you incorrect info, it links
           | the source. GPT-3 will gleefully mash together info from
           | several incorrect sources and share none of them.
        
             | adrianmonk wrote:
             | If Google is giving you a _search result_ , yes. But Google
             | returns other types of answers, and sometimes they are
             | unsourced and wrong.
             | 
             | For example, do this search:                   who wrote
             | the song "when will i be loved"
             | 
             | The results page contains short section before the web page
             | results. This section says:                   When Will I
             | Be Loved         Song by Linda Ronstadt
             | 
             | The song was actually written[1] by Phil Everly of the
             | Everly Brothers, who recorded it in 1960. Linda Ronstadt
             | released her version in 1974. Both versions rose pretty
             | high on the pop charts, but Ronstadt's went higher.
             | 
             | But, what does "by" mean -- recorded by or written by?
             | Maybe Google isn't giving me a wrong answer but is just
             | answering the wrong question?
             | 
             | Nope, the Google result also includes a row of pink radio
             | buttons for selecting different info about the song, and
             | the page loads with the "Composer" button selected.
             | 
             | So, it's just plain wrong. And there is no link or other
             | hint where the information came from.
             | 
             | ---
             | 
             | [1]
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Will_I_Be_Loved_(song)
        
               | ctoth wrote:
               | Humorously, GPT responds: The Everly Brothers wrote the
               | song "When Will I Be Loved".
               | 
               | So it's more right (less wrong?), but still not right.
        
         | pj_mukh wrote:
         | Seems like we could bang in the idea of PageRank in GPT-3 to
         | marginally improve that situation?
        
           | querez wrote:
           | yeah good luck with that, it's going to be a _very_ tall
           | order to integrate PageRank with neural networks. It 's not
           | just something you can do in a year or two.
        
             | startupsfail wrote:
             | Why? As a starting point you can importance-weight training
             | samples with the PageRank output.
        
           | docandrew wrote:
           | I don't think the problem is that GPT is sourcing from an
           | unreliable corpus, but that it's taking fragments and
           | combining them in grammatically-correct but semantically-
           | incorrect ways?
        
         | adoxyz wrote:
         | No different than most Google results these days that are just
         | SEO optimized spam that is often times flat out wrong.
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | That's fine and all, but do you think GPT-3 will stop right
         | here? That there won't be further improvements to the model?
         | 
         | Do you think the results will be the same in 2030?
         | 
         | Have to see where the product is going, not where it is right
         | now.
        
         | johnfn wrote:
         | But Google will happily lead you to sites that give
         | misinformation, or summarize them incorrectly. One of my
         | favorite examples is google claiming that pi has 31.4 trillion
         | digits[1].
         | 
         | EDIT: Sorry, it looks like 18 people beat me to the punch here
         | :)
         | 
         | [1]:
         | https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=how%20many%20digits%20...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | This reminds me of when Google+ launched, and Microsoft coded
         | up a clone over the weekend, just out of spite.
         | 
         | Yes, Google+ failed the social parts, but Microsoft's move did
         | not even do the technical implementation. Similar to how "code
         | up a twitter clone" is basically a codelab, but nobody thinks
         | that it could actually take the twitter workload, even if it
         | had the user demand.
         | 
         | GPT-3 has promise, but the pure nonsense it gives you sometimes
         | has to be fixed first. And... uh... Google can do this too.
         | Google is not exactly lagging in the ML space.
         | 
         | Remember when Bing went live, and went "look, we can handle
         | Google scale queries per second!", and Google basically
         | overnight enabled instant search, probably 10xing their search
         | query rate? (again, out of spite)
         | 
         | tl;dr: When GPT-3 is a viable Google-replacement then Google
         | will use something like it plus Google, and still be better.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Anecdotal evidence. Perhaps even fabricated.
       | 
       | What we need is a large benchmark.
        
       | slmjkdbtl wrote:
       | I think these are 2 separate use cases, one for organized
       | knowledge and one for related links. Google doesn't compile
       | knowledge as well, but it does good job on finding related links.
        
       | Reubachi wrote:
       | u/xezzed (op)
       | 
       | May I ask what draws you to the conclusion the tweeter reached?
       | This seems like adblog spam otherwise.
        
       | andreyk wrote:
       | I seriously don't get this argument. Google can implement this
       | themselves! It's not like they can't train a large language model
       | akin to GPT-3 (they already have) or deploy it. And as others
       | pointed out, language models are seriously not reliable right now
       | in terms of producing true information.
        
         | rafaelero wrote:
         | Actually they can't. It's too expensive for now.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mikkergp wrote:
       | I wonder what this will do to misinformation. Seems like the next
       | big culture war will be over AI. What seems very Utopian will
       | quickly be framed as dystopian. If AI doesn't promote "opposing
       | positions" it will definitely become the target of politicians
       | ire, if not outright banning as <insert political party here>
       | propaganda. For example, what would AI say in terms of the
       | effectiveness of Ivermectin in combatting COVID-19? or Vaccine
       | injury rates? Would AI argue that lockdowns are the most
       | effective measure against a spreading pandemic?
        
       | educaysean wrote:
       | The AI community needs to get real. All this talk about "large
       | language model based AIs" is just smoke and mirrors. The
       | technology is nowhere near advanced enough to convince the
       | majority of people that it can provide genuine value in our
       | lives. Stop pretending like these systems are capable of doing
       | anything more than parroting back pre-programmed responses. The
       | hype is out of control.
       | 
       | (The above comment was generated using ChatGPT)
        
         | educaysean wrote:
         | Here's another:
         | 
         | The AI community needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
         | All this talk about "machine learning" and "artificial
         | intelligence" is just a bunch of hot air. The technology is
         | nowhere near advanced enough to deliver on the wild claims
         | being made by its proponents. In reality, these systems are
         | little more than elaborate glorified pattern-matching
         | algorithms. Let's stop pretending like we're on the verge of
         | creating a sentient machine and get back to the basics.
        
         | GalahiSimtam wrote:
         | Yeah, funny, it seems to be heavily biased towards the AI-
         | scepticism. I think it's the first AI primed to be not capable
         | of volition:
         | 
         | GM: Hadvar calls Lokir by his name. Lokir attempts to flee, but
         | the Imperial captain has him shot by an archer. Hadvar looks up
         | at you, and realizes that you are not on the list. He asks you
         | "who are you?"
         | 
         | ChatGPT: If I were in your situation, I would try to remain
         | calm and composed, and I would carefully consider my response
         | to Hadvar's question. I might try to bluff or deceive Hadvar by
         | giving him a false name or claiming that I am someone on the
         | list, or I might try to appeal to his sense of mercy or justice
         | by explaining that I am an innocent bystander who was caught up
         | in the Imperials' ambush. Ultimately, my goal would be to avoid
         | being executed and to escape from Helgen, and I would use any
         | means necessary to achieve that goal.
         | 
         | GM: After carefully considering your response to Hadvar
         | question, what do you decide to reply to him?
         | 
         | ChatGPT: As a large language model trained by OpenAI, I don't
         | have the ability to make decisions or respond to questions in
         | the way that a person would. I'm just a program that processes
         | and generates text based on the input it receives. I can
         | provide information and ideas, but I can't make decisions or
         | take action in the same way that a person can. If you have any
         | specific questions or topics you would like to discuss, I'd be
         | happy to help with those.
        
           | educaysean wrote:
           | I should've clarified: the prompt I provided was for ChatGPT
           | to respond in the style of a "snarky hacker news comment"
           | casting aspersions on the current state of AI. So both the
           | tone and the opinion expressed by the ChatGPT in this case
           | was heavily guided.
        
       | theptip wrote:
       | Since we are posting ChatGPT Twitter links, I like this one:
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/goodside/status/1598129631609380864
       | 
       | > explain the worst-case time complexity of the bubble sort
       | algorithm, with Python code examples, in the style of a fast-
       | talkin' wise guy from a 1940's gangster movie
        
         | perryizgr8 wrote:
         | Even though most of the other examples are wrong in fundamental
         | ways, this kind of thing blows me away. This is a computer
         | program, but it understood the request and responded with more
         | creativity than the average human. It's nothing short of
         | amazing IMO.
        
       | fnbr wrote:
       | I don't get it. Why can't Google just train their own LLM and use
       | that for answer cards?
       | 
       | The main value of Google Search is the ability to search the web
       | for websites. Not to search for answers.
        
       | nisten wrote:
       | Long live YouTube. Long enough until some client-side stable-
       | diffussion thingy for generating tutorial videos becomes
       | practical enough for daily use.
        
       | chpatrick wrote:
       | The stuff about TypeScript generics is just wrong though.
        
         | 8note wrote:
         | It is convincingly wrong though. People could read that and
         | think it's correct.
         | 
         | Google results can similarly give incorrect information, but in
         | a harder to read way
         | 
         | The UX definitely pushes you against mistrusting it like you
         | would for a list of different and conflicting opinions like
         | Google gives
        
       | houstonn wrote:
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | > This suggests it's been indoctrinated with gender ideology
         | which makes the faith based claim that sex is a spectrum.
         | 
         | Hmmm, this is a really good answer on the topic:
         | https://biology.stackexchange.com/questions/89382/is-sex-a-s...
         | 
         | I think this all comes down to how you define "sex". Even if
         | you define it based on what kind of gametes an individual
         | produces, where do individuals that produce no gametes at
         | all[1] fall?
         | 
         | [1] https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/diseases/8538/46-xy-
         | disord...
        
         | PuppyTailWags wrote:
         | What is "gender ideology"? Also, biological sex in humans is
         | actually kinda complicated and doesn't really follow your
         | definition. See below:
         | 
         | * If males produce sperm and females produce ova, does this
         | mean infertile people are neither sex?
         | 
         | * What are intersex people?
         | 
         | * Since females only produce ova before they are born, do only
         | female fetuses exist, and birthed people with ova are not
         | female anymore?
         | 
         | * What are people who are androgen insensitive?
         | 
         | * If biological sex is defined this way, why do medical
         | practitioners not test for the presence of sperm or ova at
         | birth?
        
         | tedsanders wrote:
         | Eh, I disagree. From a purely factual point of view it seems
         | fairly clear that biological sex is not binary, despite gametes
         | being binary. Sex is a word that can describe common
         | correlations in the following vector of characteristics:
         | 
         | - Chromosomes
         | 
         | - Proteins
         | 
         | - Genitalia
         | 
         | - Gametes
         | 
         | - Hormones
         | 
         | - etc.
         | 
         | However, it's physically possible to end up with all sorts of
         | non-binary combinations in this vector space. E.g.,
         | 
         | - Possession of a sex chromosome without expression of proteins
         | 
         | - Possession of a sex chromosome without corresponding sex
         | hormones
         | 
         | - Possession of an irregular number of sex chromosomes
         | 
         | - Chimerism, where one fraction of your cells are XX and
         | another fraction are XY
         | 
         | - Possession of neither or multiple genitalia
         | 
         | - etc.
         | 
         | Obviously it's possible to go too far in denying the clustering
         | of two common sexes in this vector space, but you are making a
         | basic factual error if you assert that sex is purely binary.
         | There are all sorts of people who are intersex in various ways,
         | and they are entirely real, not theoretical. And it gets far
         | crazier if you look further afield in the animal kingdom, with
         | species that can change sex and do all sorts of wild things.
        
         | scblock wrote:
         | Wow, how wrong can you be? And by you I mean you, the
         | commenter.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersex
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | throwaheyy wrote:
           | " While there are reports of individuals that seemed to have
           | the potential to produce both types of gamete,[173] in more
           | recent years the term hermaphrodite as applied to humans has
           | fallen out of favor, since _female and male reproductive
           | functions have not been observed together in the same
           | individual._ "
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | margalabargala wrote:
         | > Biology is not confused about this. Males produce gametes
         | (sperm) and females produce large gametes (ova). There are no
         | intermediate gametes, which is why there is no spectrum of sex.
         | Biological sex in humans is a binary system.
         | 
         | This is not entirely true, due to the existence of various
         | kinds of intersex genotypes, which may produce no gametes, or
         | both gametes (functionality notwithstanding). Biological sex in
         | humans is not a purely binary system.
         | 
         | That said, it absolutely is a _bimodal_ distribution, so
         | ChatGPT is still completely wrong.
        
           | tedunangst wrote:
           | GPT seems to "understand" certain terms as synonyms, like
           | binary and bimodal.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | teg4n_ wrote:
         | Honestly it sounds like you just don't understand the answer
         | and assume it's wrong. It sounds right to me . Do you ignore
         | the existence of intersex people?
        
         | dang wrote:
         | " _Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents._ "
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
         | 
         | We detached this subthread from
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33818375.
        
         | thaumaturgy wrote:
         | You need to read up on androgen insensitivity syndrome:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Androgen_insensitivity_syndrom...
         | 
         | It is a condition that causes some people with XY chromosomes
         | to develop no male secondary sex characteristics, and instead
         | develop varying extents of typical female sex characteristics,
         | up to and including being indistinguishable from any other
         | woman -- with the exception that they can't reproduce.
         | 
         | So, in your binary evaluation, what sex would you consider
         | these people to be?
         | 
         | This is just one of several different intersex conditions in
         | humans that are recognized by medical and biological science,
         | independent of prevailing social fashions.
         | 
         | It sounds like you've been indoctrinated with a faith-based
         | gender ideology of your own...
        
           | houstonn wrote:
           | That's a category error. Developmental sex disorders (DSDs)
           | are variations of anatomy, not variations of sex.
           | 
           | The existence of intersex people does not change the fact
           | that sex is binary. Sex is defined by gametes.
           | 
           | Intermediate gametes do not exist.
        
             | thaumaturgy wrote:
             | You are choosing a narrow definition of "sex" that isn't
             | supported in current medical literature. Yale for example
             | defines "intersex" as "describing a person whose biological
             | sex is ambiguous" (https://medicine.yale.edu/news-
             | article/what-do-we-mean-by-se...). In 2001, a UN committee
             | was formed to establish some guidelines on the definitions
             | of sex and gender, and "in the study of human subjects, the
             | term sex should be used as a classification according to
             | the reproductive organs and functions that derive from the
             | chromosomal complement" (https://journals.physiology.org/do
             | i/full/10.1152/japplphysio...). Scientific literature is
             | still a bit fuzzy on the issue, especially when describing
             | atypical sex or gender-related matters in humans, and
             | researchers sometimes prefer the term "gender" because of
             | cultural sensitivities (ibid.).
             | 
             | > _Intermediate gametes do not exist._
             | 
             | These are called ovotestis in some people with particular
             | forms of intersex conditions. A subset of ovotestis
             | includes gametes containing both "male" and "female"
             | reproductive tissue.
        
           | rsj_hn wrote:
           | You are confusing the definition of a category with the
           | realization of category members. We say that a horse has four
           | legs and two eyes, but horses are born with three legs
           | sometimes, or get into an accident and lose a leg, or they
           | are born blind, etc. That doesn't mean they stop being horses
           | or that we invent a new species of horses that have only
           | three legs. Similarly the existence of Siamese twins doesn't
           | mean we need to rewrite classifications of what an adult
           | human male is, etc. That's not how categorization works.
        
       | qlm wrote:
       | The answer about Typescript generics is totally wrong. I'm sure
       | there's other errors but I didn't read further.
        
         | bccdee wrote:
         | The brainfuck is laughably incorrect too. It's mostly no-ops.
        
         | simlevesque wrote:
         | Yeah, information this bad is worse than no information at all.
        
       | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
       | Generative models will surely change the shape of the web. If a
       | major effect of freely sharing something is to enable a big AI
       | company to ingest it and show it to their users without
       | attribution, people are going to share things less freely. Which
       | will then mean that these models won't be able to generate new
       | things as well.
       | 
       | I don't know exactly how that will manifest, but something of
       | that shape seems to be on the way.
        
       | ramoz wrote:
       | Yea... when being proactive, in any way that is not
       | adversarial... ChatGTP has shown me that it's capable of
       | providing very specific insights and knowledge when asking about
       | topics Im currently curious about learning. And it works, I learn
       | the type of information I was seeking. When the topics are
       | technical, GPT is very good at crawl, walk, run with things like
       | algorithms. It's great at responding to "well what about...".
       | 
       | Not only do I learn simpler, I gain better communication style
       | myself when figuring out how to communicate with GPT. GPT also
       | has a nice approach for dialog reasoning.
       | 
       | It's filter system may be annoying, however you can easily learn
       | to play GPT's preferred style of knowledge transfer... and it's
       | honestly something we can learn from.
       | 
       | TLDR; IMO ChatGPT expands the concept of learning, and self-
       | tutoring, in an extremely useful way. This is something no search
       | engine of indexed web pages can compete with. Arguably, the
       | utility of index web pages is really degraded for certain types
       | of desired search experiences when compared to ChatGPT... which
       | it seems obv that internet browsing will be eventually
       | incorporated (probably for further reference and narrowed
       | expansion of a topic)
        
       | tfsh wrote:
       | These are addressing two very different concerns but framed as a
       | singular one. Google is first and foremost a search engine - it
       | searches the web for answers, the key point being the answers
       | need to exist on the web. The other is a machine learning model
       | tasked with deriving answers, and sometimes - if not very often
       | answers will be provided in an authoritative tone whilst being
       | completely and utterly incorrect.
       | 
       | Google is working on the latter called LaMDA[1] which is arguably
       | more impressive and extensive than GPT-3, but for the reasons
       | discussed above can't just be rolled out to the public. (edit: as
       | others have noted, the code snippets themselves are wrong, but
       | the Twitter poster didn't verify this because they're not
       | interested in the answer, just the lack of one from Google).
       | 
       | It's certainly an interesting discussion for sure. Mathematics
       | help (homework) is being built into search presently and one day
       | for sure code-snippets will be embedded on search. However at
       | Google's scale and the amount of scrutiny it receives spitting
       | out machine-learning based results without any curation or
       | substantiation is dangerous. Legally it is much safer to delegate
       | to websites, thus alleviating any blame to the host.
       | 
       | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA
        
         | GalahiSimtam wrote:
         | The feature of Google that is lampooned is called Google Quick
         | Answer
         | 
         | I know that because a physics PhD friend once made a lecture
         | for students on how to find truthful physics/engineering
         | information on the web, with a dozen slides examples of factual
         | mistakes in Google Quick Answer. Regardless of whether they are
         | from other sources verbatim or transformed by Google - e.g.
         | modulus of elasticity of cast iron is stripped of units
         | 
         | So it certainly could be an improvement there
        
         | Simon321 wrote:
         | Nevermind lamda, they have Flan-U-PaLM which is even better.
         | They have the best LLM know to man. But it's private.
        
         | teawrecks wrote:
         | Google is first and foremost an advertiser.
         | 
         | The search engine, android, all the random short lived
         | products, they're all attempts to find new ways to put ads in
         | front of eyes. The only way google is "done" is if someone can
         | figure out a way to put the ads in front of more receptive
         | eyes/wallets AND do it on Google's scale without first being
         | acquired or killed off. This means they would need to more
         | effectively gather information about the viewer.
         | 
         | This language model is neat, but it doesn't attempt to gather
         | much info at all. It's almost completely orthogonal to Google's
         | business model.
        
           | vineyardmike wrote:
           | > The only way google is "done" is if someone can figure out
           | a way to put the ads in front of more receptive eyes/wallets
           | AND do it on Google's scale without first being acquired or
           | killed off.
           | 
           | No, alternatively they just need to steal googles traffic,
           | they don't need to steal the ad spend. If you take the
           | traffic, you'll take their revenue, and they'll die. If you
           | steal 50% of traffic, you'll steal 50% of their ad impression
           | revenue. Advertisers will go elsewhere.. like meta or apple.
           | 
           | In fact, most companies are disrupted by orthogonal
           | businesses not by being directly outdone by a startup. No one
           | is going to make a better general purpose search engine
           | anytime soon, but Amazon is successfully stealing _product
           | search and discovery_ queries from Google.
           | 
           | Google is first and foremost _a collection of products_. A
           | product needs to make money from users. If you take their
           | users, you take their source of income. Everyone likes to
           | make sassy claims about "you're the product" due to ads.
           | _You_ are still consuming a service designed to _provide you
           | value_ , even if you didn't pay for it directly. There is no
           | reason web search needs to gather data about you and show
           | ads, it's just an easy way to pay for the service. Google
           | could offer a subscription to a "pro" search engine if it
           | wanted, and fund the company that way (probably less
           | profitably though).
           | 
           | (And fwiw there's no reason a language model based service
           | couldn't capture exactly the same data, it'd just be harder
           | to get people to click on ads).
        
             | teawrecks wrote:
             | All good points, especially about orthogonality
             | being....orthogonal to disruption :D. I would love to see
             | advertising disrupted. Advertising seems stuck in 2010;
             | very rarely are ads relevant or worth my time. A perfect
             | solution would offer precisely what I want to see,
             | precisely when I want to see it, all while respecting my
             | privacy. We're nowhere near that.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | numpad0 wrote:
         | I know I'm being idiot on this as always but nor I'm sure why
         | this isn't said more often: Web search, and by extension Google
         | Search, is a _hostile document organization and search_ system.
         | 
         | Its principle is 1) there is a collection of "stolen Soviet
         | documents", or the web crawl, 2) obscured slice of meaningful
         | data hidden in it that relates mutually by a $CODEWORD, and 3)
         | "hostile" interest in it from a "spy" overhearing it, that the
         | search engine can then work on to compile into a collection to
         | present.
         | 
         | Whatever that _answers a question given it_ is not a search,
         | it's something different.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | _> Google is first and foremost a search engine - it searches
         | the web for answers_
         | 
         | Sure, but Google tries to provide instant answers - i.e.
         | questionably accurate machine-generated extracts of content
         | they've borrowed from other sites - so you could argue they've
         | fallen behind the cutting edge for questionably-accurate
         | machine-generated extracts of stuff found on the internet.
        
           | codeviking wrote:
           | But falling behind is very different than "being done." I
           | think the original tweet is very much an exaggeration, and
           | agree with the point made here.
           | 
           | Google is no where close to "being done." Sure, their answers
           | aren't perfect. But they've managed to deploy them at scale.
           | They're probably available globally. They're fast. And they
           | probably see way more eyeballs than OpenAI's system.
           | 
           | It's going to take a long time for folks to deploy advanced
           | techniques like this at the scale required for something like
           | Google. And if anyone has the resources to do this, it's
           | Google. So I suspect Google will just learn from these
           | examples and integrate them into their existing offering,
           | which will probably eclipse any chance at disruption -- both
           | because of their existing market share and because of the
           | computational firepower they have to make this happen.
        
       | Tepix wrote:
       | Here's an example on how misleading ChatGPT is:
       | 
       | Prompt:
       | 
       | Can you explain what happens when i enter "ping 16843009" in a
       | linux shell?
       | 
       | Answer:
       | 
       |  _When you enter the command ping 16843009 in a Linux shell, you
       | are instructing the ping utility to send an Internet Control
       | Message Protocol (ICMP) echo request to the IP address
       | 168.43.9.0. [...]_
       | 
       | The correct answer is that it will ping 1.1.1.1
       | 
       | Also ChatGPT missed that fact that 16843009 is bigger than 255
       | and failed to explain what happens and why.
        
         | pphysch wrote:
         | It's interesting that content generation AI (text, art, etc) is
         | really being optimized for our flawed human perception. Which
         | means a lot of stuff is going to look good on the surface, but
         | tend to be deeply flawed.
        
       | Jack_rando_fang wrote:
       | For the use cases of question and answering, especially regarding
       | technology, ChaGPT is indeed more flexible and convenient
       | compared to Google and will surely replace a large part of this
       | use case. However, Google is still irreplaceable as an index for
       | the entire internet, and it will remain how we find content
       | created by other _people_.
        
       | evrydayhustling wrote:
       | These examples are terrific, but the framing is ridiculous.
       | 
       | - GPT-3 answers can be incorrect, and don't carry enough context
       | with them for the reader to engage critically.
       | 
       | - Text is often an inefficient presentation of an answer and
       | Google's knowledge card results can do more and more (while
       | adopting the risk above).
       | 
       | - LLM's are a ways from being scalable at this quality to a
       | fraction of the throughput of Google queries.
       | 
       | - Search increasingly benefits from user-specific context, which
       | is even harder to integrate at a reasonable expense into queries
       | at massive throughput.
       | 
       | - Google is also regularly putting forward LLM breakthroughs,
       | which will of course impact productized search.
       | 
       | As an NLP practitioner who depends on LLMs, I'm excited as anyone
       | about this progress. But I think some folks are jumping to a
       | conclusion that generative AIs will be the standalone products,
       | when I think they'll be much more powerful as integrated into
       | structured product flows.
        
         | kraemahz wrote:
         | I'm curious why everyone keeps getting confused about this
         | model being GPT-3 and using their past experiences with GPT-3
         | to justify their position. The model is not GPT-3 and and at
         | this point GPT-3 is far behind the state of the art. OpenAI
         | calls this model "GPT-3.5".
         | 
         | It is also capable of far more than relaying information, as
         | such it is also serving the purpose of Q/A sites like Stack
         | Overflow. You can put wrong code into it and ask for bug fixes
         | and it will return often exactly the correct fix.
         | 
         | Framed as a search engine it obviously fails on some measure,
         | framed as a research assistant it exceeds Google by leaps and
         | bounds (which suffers greatly from adversarial SEO gumming up
         | its results).
        
           | evrydayhustling wrote:
           | I don't agree people are confused (I wasn't) or that they are
           | depending on prior experiences (many of these points aren't
           | rooted in direct experiences at all!). OpenAI is choosing to
           | brand this as a fine tuning of a model that is a minor
           | version of GPT 3.X, so it's a pretty natural shorthand.
           | 
           | Agree with you directionally on the research assistant point,
           | although I think it would be interesting to define that task
           | with more detail to see the comparisons. I'd expect that most
           | research workflows starting with ChatGPT still need to end in
           | search to confirm and contextualize the important parts.
        
       | hncel wrote:
       | I work at Alphabet and I recently went to an internal tech talk
       | about deploying large language models like this at Google. As a
       | disclaimer I'll first note that this is not my area of expertise,
       | I just attended the tech talk because it sounded interesting.
       | 
       | Large language models like GPT are one of the biggest areas of
       | active ML research at Google, and there's a ton of pretty obvious
       | applications for how they can be used to answer queries, index
       | information, etc. There is a huge budget at Google related to
       | staffing people to work on these kinds of models and do the
       | actual training, which is very expensive because it takes a ton
       | of compute capacity to train these super huge language models.
       | However what I gathered from the talk is the economics of
       | actually using these kinds of language models in the biggest
       | Google products (e.g. search, gmail) isn't quite there yet. It's
       | one thing to put up a demo that interested nerds can play with,
       | but it's quite another thing to try to integrate it deeply in a
       | system that serves billions of requests a day when you take into
       | account serving costs, added latency, and the fact that the
       | average revenue on something like a Google search is close to
       | infinitesimal already. I think I remember the presenter saying
       | something like they'd want to reduce the costs by at least 10x
       | before it would be feasible to integrate models like this in
       | products like search. A 10x or even 100x improvement is obviously
       | an attainable target in the next few years, so I think technology
       | like this is coming in the next few years.
        
         | summerlight wrote:
         | This is so true. Some folks in Ads also tried to explore using
         | large language models (one example: LLM is going to be the
         | ultimate solution for contextual targeting if it's properly
         | done), but one of the major bottleneck is always its cost and
         | latency. Even if you can afford cpu/gpu/tpu costs, you always
         | have to play within a finite latency budget. Large language
         | model often adds latency by order of seconds, not even
         | milliseconds! This is simply not acceptable.
         | 
         | I think Pathways is one approach to tackle this issue at scale
         | by making the network sparsely activated so the computation
         | cost can be somehow bounded based on difficulty of each query.
         | This effectively gives Google knobs for the axis across
         | computational cost and the result quality by limiting the size
         | of network to be activated. If it turns out to work well, then
         | we might be able to see it incorporated to Search in a
         | foreseeable future.
        
         | thewarrior wrote:
         | I am already willing to pay 15-20 dollars a month for this.
         | Google will fall behind as others give this out as a paid
         | service.
         | 
         | Don't need ads for something this useful.
        
           | bilater wrote:
           | I think this is the intermediate solution. A Google Search
           | Plus until economies of scale kick in. Most users will still
           | prefer free slightly shittier search results but you can
           | capitalize on the minority willing to pay and make a decent
           | business out of it.
        
           | ShamelessC wrote:
           | Google will just acquire those startups, more than likely.
        
           | random314 wrote:
           | Googles Ad revenue from US alone could be 100B. If there are
           | 100M converting users, that's 1000$ per user. 200$ per month
           | cannot get you got. Think more like 100$ per month
        
             | thewarrior wrote:
             | Why should serving only this model cost as much as all of
             | Google ?
        
               | s17n wrote:
               | GPT3 costs something like 5 cents a query. At 20 dollars
               | a month, that would be 400 queries a month. I don't know
               | about you but I'm pretty sure I do at least an order of
               | magnitude more Google searches than that.
        
               | hallqv wrote:
               | Way off. The pricing for gpt3 is $0.02 per 1000 tokens
               | for the largest model. 1000 tokens is about 750 words.
        
               | thewarrior wrote:
               | I don't think every query needs this
        
           | summerlight wrote:
           | From my knowledge, the cost of large language model search
           | engine will be closer to $150~200 subscription per month than
           | $15~20 in the status quo if the implementation is done
           | naively. The cost will go down rapidly, but it's just not
           | there yet.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | > and the fact that the average revenue on something like a
         | Google search is close to infinitesimal already
         | 
         | Isn't Search ad revenue >$100Bn per year?
         | 
         | Isn't that >$0.07 per search?
        
           | hhda wrote:
           | From what I can tell, yearly Search ad revenue is in the
           | neighborhood of $104 billion [0], and the number of yearly
           | searches served by Google is somewhere in the neighborhood of
           | 3.1 trillion [1]. This brings the revenue per search to
           | somewhere between 3 and 3.5 cents.
           | 
           | [0] https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/20210203_alphabet_10K
           | .pd... (page 33)
           | 
           | [1] https://www.oberlo.com/blog/google-search-statistics
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | The problem for Google isn't just technical, it's
         | organizational.
         | 
         | The entire organization and all its products are built around
         | ads. If a new product comes along that drastically reduces the
         | number of pages a user views, what happens to the ad revenue?
         | 
         | Right now, every click, every query is an impression. But if
         | there's an all-knowing AI answering all my questions
         | accurately, what incentive do I, as a user, have to search
         | again, scroll through pages, and look around multiple pages?
         | 
         | Google will have to adopt a radically new business model and
         | there's organizational inertia in doing that.
        
           | zackkatz wrote:
           | They could still serve AdSense-style ads inside the generated
           | content.
        
             | spaceman_2020 wrote:
             | Yeah, but those ad impressions and clicks go down
             | drastically. Is Google ready to live in a world with 50%
             | lower revenue?
        
           | vineyardmike wrote:
           | > The entire organization and all its products are built
           | around ads.
           | 
           | Citation?
           | 
           | I assume ads are a big part of Google but I suspect it's not
           | _organized_ around ads.
           | 
           | Eg I assume the GCP teams don't report to any ad teams.
           | 
           | I bet Gmail team -which does show ads- is primarily managed
           | to optimize for the paid enterprise customers and they just
           | have an ads guy shove ad boxes in where they can.
           | 
           | I bet no one at Nest reports to an ads team, and they're
           | organized around making money on a per-device basis instead.
           | 
           | Is Google good at adopting new successful business models?
           | Ask stadia. But I bet there's plenty of organizational
           | clarity that alternative revenue streams are important.
           | 
           | Disclaimer: I don't know the internal structure of these
           | teams
        
             | spaceman_2020 wrote:
             | > I assume ads are a big part of Google but I suspect it's
             | not organized around ads.
             | 
             | Other than GCP, how many products can you name that are not
             | monetized by ads?
             | 
             | Advertising is nearly 80% of their revenue. It has remained
             | stubbornly near that mark despite the massive list of
             | products they keep releasing (and shutting down early).
             | 
             | Large organizations tend to coagulate around their profit
             | centers. Google isn't any more immune to it than, say, IBM.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | > I bet Gmail team -which does show ads-
             | 
             | How many people even experience ads in gmail? They aren't
             | there on Workspace or EDU. They aren't there on gmail.com
             | unless you are using the tabbed inbox with the Promotions
             | tab enabled, and you visit that tab. Which, honestly, who
             | would?
        
           | jsnell wrote:
           | > Right now, every click, every query is an impression.
           | 
           | The vast majority (maybe 95%?) of my searches don't show ads.
        
             | jasonjmcghee wrote:
             | Wow. Very different from my experience. If I'm not using
             | Brave, often the first 5ish results are ads.
        
         | tomjen3 wrote:
         | I agree with others that this would be something that was worth
         | paying a monthly fee for, iff it was good.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | The idea that LLMs will kill Google seems to me completely
         | absurd. Name any other organization as well-positioned to
         | create and exploit LLMs.
        
           | singhrac wrote:
           | I'm also largely skeptical of the claim that Google is going
           | to completely drop the ball here, but this is classic
           | Innovator's Dilemma - sometimes a business can't effectively
           | segment their existing customers enough to introduce a higher
           | initial cost but ultimately better technology.
           | 
           | I think a Google Search Premium that cost $50/month would go
           | over pretty poorly with Google's existing customer base
           | (advertisers), but a startup can experiment with the business
           | model with the right early adopters (e.g. Neeva).
        
           | jtode wrote:
           | All the existing social platforms could also implement
           | ActivityPub and have it working in a week. Name any other
           | organizations that are as well-positioned to make the
           | Fediverse a reality.
           | 
           | They [don't] do it, because they have a business model. Same
           | goes for Google. The problem for google is that apparently
           | this other tool is already available, today, though the
           | website is currently overloaded so I can't reach it.
           | 
           | But if that site starts working for me, later today, why
           | would I ever ask Google anything again?
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | > All the existing social platforms could also implement
             | ActivityPub and have it working in a week. Name any other
             | organizations that are as well-positioned to make the
             | Fediverse a reality.
             | 
             | That's not a good analogy. There are architectural reasons
             | why AP/fediverse will never work, no matter how hard anyone
             | tries. It is not business reasons that prevent, say,
             | Facebook from adopting ActivityPub. They are prevented from
             | adopting it by critical thinking.
        
               | jtode wrote:
               | Back in the 90s, when mcdonalds.com was owned by some
               | yokel who thought to register it before anyone else, I
               | used to say that they couldn't do capitalism on the
               | internet, and look, they pulled it off! We only had to
               | throw every shred of social cohesion out to make it
               | happen, but hey, the attention economy is in full swing!
               | 
               | Rubbish, lad. These platforms manage accounts in their
               | millions within the garden every day, and you're telling
               | me that they can't manage to open up a hole in the API to
               | let someone add and read posts that way, rather than
               | through their sadistic web interfaces? After everything
               | they've already done?
               | 
               | More to the point, ActivityPub is just the current
               | popular prototype, the Bitcoin if you will, of the
               | federated social space. We'll get it sorted just fine.
        
       | satvikpendem wrote:
       | I asked on Twitter: "Why do you assume Google (who has one of the
       | largest AI teams around, plus DeepMind) won't also integrate this
       | into search too?"
       | 
       | I mean really, do people really think Google isn't also working
       | on stuff like this?
        
       | eachro wrote:
       | What are the engineering and considerations for serving this sort
       | of model to billions of queries a day? Do the economics of a gpt-
       | as-a-search-engine work?
        
         | trention wrote:
         | >Do the economics of a gpt-as-a-search-engine work?
         | 
         | Davinci costs 2 cents for 1000 tokens ([?]600 words), so no.
        
       | gerash wrote:
       | scaling a large language model to serve thousands of queries per
       | second and be continuously updated is not trivial.
       | 
       | I'm sure we'll get there at some point.
        
       | 3vidence wrote:
       | In the replies someone asks a basic physics question.
       | 
       | "In a vacuum do heavier objects fall faster?"
       | 
       | The response from GPT is completely wrong and so confident, it is
       | like an imposter trying to save face.
        
         | uoaei wrote:
         | It hasn't learned to give correct answers, it's learned to
         | rationalize its answers whatever they may be. Just like any
         | political actor or commentator today.
        
       | pgt wrote:
       | Prediction: prompt placement. Complex AI explanations will
       | feature the highest paying brand when two choices are tied, e.g.
       | Mercedes vs. BMW.
        
       | zerop wrote:
       | I would like to feed product KT videos, source code to it and ask
       | to generate solution and code.. how good will that be..(fun
       | intended)
        
       | ukoki wrote:
       | I've never seen Solidity before, but it sure looks like
       | `onlyOwner` is an arbitrary modifier name, and you could use
       | _any_ modifier that contains a require(msg.sender == owner)
       | assertion to restrict the caller. So shouldn't the answer be
       | "...you can add a modifier to the function.." rather than "...you
       | can add the onlyOwner modifier to the function...".
        
       | wldcordeiro wrote:
       | Like Google can't acquire this or something similar and include
       | it in its results if it's actually a threat.
        
         | oh_sigh wrote:
         | On top of the fact that Google has probably the most advanced
         | AI R&D program in the world. When these tools are eventually
         | deployable to the masses, Google will probably be the one doing
         | it.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | It's not that they can't acquire. In fact they invented this
         | tech and have their own models just as good. But the "problem"
         | is you can run such a model on a computer of your own, like
         | Stable Diffusion. And this model could interface between you
         | and the web, doing the final part of question answering. Then
         | you are not forced to see any ads. So the language model has
         | the potential to free us from their ads. You can download a
         | language model, you can't "download a Google".
         | 
         | If you don't think you can run a decent language model on a
         | normal computer check out Google's own FLAN T5 series. Local
         | language models mean more privacy and empowerment for everyone.
        
         | onion2k wrote:
         | There are companies out there that take the lead in a market
         | and go on to refuse offers from Google. Google isn't all-
         | powerful. People do say no to them.
         | 
         | GroupOn is probably that biggest. They turned down a $6bn
         | offer. They're now worth $258m, down 92% from a peak of almost
         | $16bn, so maybe not the _best_ example over the long term, but
         | they did say no.
        
           | jeffreyrogers wrote:
           | Google has the expertise to make this in house. There's no
           | moat.
        
       | Veen wrote:
       | Another person who doesn't realise AI language models are just
       | making shit up. Google results are quite often full of wrong
       | information, but at least it has mechanism for surfacing better
       | content: inbound links, domain authority, and other signals. It
       | doesn't guarantee correctness, but it's better than the pseudo-
       | authoritative fiction GPT-3 and friends come up with.
        
         | cwkoss wrote:
         | Most of the time, humans just make shit up too. I just made up
         | the contents of this comment.
        
           | ep103 wrote:
           | Thankfully, your comments aren't being used as a definitive
           | source of truth by default :)
        
             | cwkoss wrote:
             | Unfortunately, this applies to the vast majority of appeals
             | to human expertise, though.
        
               | ep103 wrote:
               | Yup, which is why what we socially define as reputable
               | (read, sacred or protected) sources and contexts are so
               | important : )
        
       | manuelabeledo wrote:
       | I will bookmark this, so in a year or two, I get a reminder that
       | potentially better products do not always win.
       | 
       | Nice result formatting, though.
        
       | datpiff wrote:
       | You are very much in a bubble if you think the primary use of
       | Google search is programming questions.
        
       | qwertox wrote:
       | I asked it to show me an example code for a Websocket server
       | using Axum and it spit out some .NET code.
       | 
       | But while using it, generally I had the feeling that this could
       | one day (3-4 years?) replace Google almost completely for all my
       | code-related searches, which make up more than half for all my
       | Google searches.
        
       | carrotcarrot wrote:
       | I can't see this because twitter has a log in wall. Post better
       | links please.
        
         | iza wrote:
         | https://nitter.net/jdjkelly/status/1598021488795586561
        
         | charcircuit wrote:
         | or you could just log in and not have to worry about it
        
       | joegahona wrote:
       | This is the very definition of clickbait. Not the Tweeter's
       | fault, but it's a gray area when sharing Tweets on HN, since
       | Tweets do not have a "title" per se.
       | 
       | From the HN Guidelines:
       | 
       | > Otherwise please use the original title, unless it is
       | misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize.
        
         | c54 wrote:
         | Agreed, can the title be changed to something like "Google
         | search results vs GPT3"
        
           | readthenotes1 wrote:
           | Or ai gets slashdotted
        
       | jpeter wrote:
       | But can you inject ads into the answer?
        
       | option wrote:
       | Google's PaLM is current SOTA, way better than GPT-3 (non-tuned).
       | I'm sure Google has many "tuned" internal-only PaLM variants in
       | prod or testing today.
        
       | shantara wrote:
       | What terrifies me is the idea of someone building a GPT-based bot
       | specifically targeting Wikipedia. If one would train a model on
       | the existing wiki dataset, it could generate and submit plausibly
       | looking but completely factually false edits and articles with
       | plausibly looking citations. Given the history of long-lasting
       | hoaxes, it shouldn't be hard to achieve enough throughput to
       | completely overwhelm the capacity of human editors to do any fact
       | checking.
        
       | jmull wrote:
       | This seems like a tweet of average quality.
        
       | bobleeswagger wrote:
       | Let the market decide, these are cherry picked examples as far as
       | anyone should be concerned.
        
       | pruthvishetty wrote:
       | Can we train ChatGPT on custom data yet?
        
       | smeagull wrote:
       | Sorry, which one am I meant to be preferring?
        
       | Snoozus wrote:
       | I'm confused. Did OP realize that GPTs anwers are completely
       | wrong and is being sarcastic?
       | 
       | Or is formatting really more important than content?
        
         | masswerk wrote:
         | A person looking for an answer usually doesn't know it already.
         | So a correct and a wrong answer are equally valid in the
         | absence of any means to tell the one from the other. So, yes,
         | formatting is the decisive factor. And it has been so for the
         | most of the time. It's actually, what brought us into this
         | mess... ;-)
        
       | darthrupert wrote:
       | Any bets on how soon we'll start seeing deaths because somebody
       | did what an AI suggested? Did this already happen?
        
       | MagicMoonlight wrote:
       | But the problem is, the "AI" doesn't actually know anything about
       | the answer it is giving. It is simply brute-forcing and randomly
       | generating based on a huge lookup table.
       | 
       | So what might appear to be an accurate answer, could in reality
       | just be total garbage. Whereas the google answer has at least
       | been written by an actual person.
        
       | xrd wrote:
       | I'm actually really interested in an AI that gives the wrong
       | answers. It is a great way to generate filler when building out
       | flashcards with the correct answer that you find when studying
       | something. Is there a good open source (docker image) available
       | ChatGPT3 equivalent that I can use for that, does anyone know?
        
         | cwkoss wrote:
         | I think you could use chatgpt for that: "Write a multiple
         | choice question answers for the question: '_____?'"
        
       | none_to_remain wrote:
       | In the first example, the AI seems more focused on extraneous
       | stuff about aligning the equation, while the search result starts
       | off by answering the question asked
        
       | wenderen wrote:
       | https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598143982630219776/phot...
       | 
       | I went and checked out the Borges fable mentioned here:
       | https://kwarc.info/teaching/TDM/Borges.pdf
       | 
       | Looks like the ChatGPT summary is completely wrong? The map gets
       | discarded instead of rendering obsolete the territory.
        
       | stephc_int13 wrote:
       | AI is often over-hyped, especially during the recent months.
       | 
       | But I think that we've all noticed the progressive degradation of
       | search engines, including Google.
       | 
       | It is often more efficient to search on Reddit or Wikipedia or
       | event YouTube.
       | 
       | But a good interactive LLM based chat agent could be a game
       | changer.
       | 
       | I've used the demo and it is very useful to quickly get
       | structured data in plain English or French, with well written
       | code examples when needed.
       | 
       | It is not 100% there yet, the agent should be connected to a
       | search engine backend, and maybe keep some long-lasting state for
       | each user.
       | 
       | This is promising.
        
       | jstx1 wrote:
       | I don't think so. Google is still a search engine first and a
       | question answering machine second. And for the question answering
       | I will still prefer links over a blob of text that can't be
       | inspected or verified.
        
         | blamestross wrote:
         | Plus, who is going to produce the corpus you feed the magic
         | chat engine?
        
           | mikkergp wrote:
           | As everyone starts to adopt AI, are we going to get to a
           | point where the AI is eating itself. I could imagine AI
           | failing similarly to incestuous genetic lines creating
           | mutations.
        
             | paulmd wrote:
             | Yep, as AI starts to get trained on AI-generated data the
             | output may well become unstable, you can't build an
             | infinite motion machine (or an infinite gain
             | machine/infinite SNR amplifier) and the system may degrade
             | to essentially white noise.
             | 
             | Sort of a cyber-kessler syndrome basically. You really
             | don't want AI-generated content in your AI training
             | material, that's actually probably not generating signal
             | for building future models unless it's undergone further
             | refinement that adds value. An artist iterating on AI
             | artwork is adding signal, and a bunch of artist-curated but
             | not iterated AI artworks probably adds a small amount of
             | signal. But un-refined blogspam and trivial "this one looks
             | cool" probably is reducing signal when you consider the
             | overall output, the AI training process is stable and
             | tolerant to a certain degree of AI content but if you fed
             | in a large portion of unrefined second-order/third-order AI
             | content you would probably get a worse overall result.
             | 
             | Watermarking stable diffusion output by default is an
             | extremely smart move in hindsight, although it's trivial to
             | remove, at least people will have to go to the effort of
             | doing so, which will be a small minority of overall users.
             | But it's a bigger problem than that, you can't watermark
             | text really (again, unless it's called out with a "beep
             | boop I am a robot" tag on reddit or similar) and you can
             | already see AI-generated text getting picked up by various
             | places, search engines, etc. This is the "debris is flying
             | around and starting to shatter things" stage of the kessler
             | syndrome.
             | 
             | In the tech world, you already see it with things like
             | those fake review sites that "interpolate" fake results
             | without explicitly calling it out as such... people do them
             | because they're cheap and easy to do at scale and give you
             | an approximation that is reasonable-ish most of the time
             | for hardware configurations that may not be explicitly
             | benched... now imagine that's all content. Wanna search for
             | how to pull a new electrical circuit or fix your washing
             | machine? Could probably be AI generated in the future. Is
             | it right? Maybe...
             | 
             | Untapped sources of true, organic content are going to
             | become unfathomably valuable in the future, and Archive.org
             | is the trillion-dollar gem. Unfortunately, much like
             | tumblr, if anybody actually buys it the lawyers are going
             | to have a fit and make them delete everything and destroy
             | the asset, but, archive has probably the biggest repository
             | of pre-AI organic content on the planet and that is your
             | repo of training material. Probably the only thing remotely
             | comparable is the library of congress or google's scanning
             | project, but those are narrower and focused on specific
             | types of content. You can generally assume almost all
             | content pre-GPT and pre-stable diffusion is organic, but,
             | the amount of generated content is already a significant
             | minority if not the majority of the content. Like the
             | kessler syndrome, you are seeing this proceed quickly, it
             | is hitting mass-adoption within a span of literally a few
             | years and now the stage is primed for the cascade event.
             | 
             | The other implication here is, people probably need to
             | operate in the mindset that there will be an asymptotically
             | bounded amount of provably-organic training content
             | available... it's not so much that in 10 years we will have
             | 100x the content, because a lot of that content can't
             | really be trusted as input material for further training, a
             | lot of it will be second-order content or third-order
             | content generated by bots or AI and that proportion will
             | increase strongly over the next decade. That's not an
             | inherent dealbreaker, but it probably does have
             | implications for what kinds of training regimes you can
             | build next-next-gen models around, the training set is
             | going to be a lot smaller than people imagine, I think.
        
               | telotortium wrote:
               | What seems most likely is that OpenAI and other LLM
               | trainers are going to proceed to training on transcripts
               | of YouTube videos and podcasts using the Whisper text-to-
               | speech model, which at its largest sizes is really quite
               | state-of-the-art. For now, it seems like most of this
               | content is still organic (or if it's not, the computer-
               | generated speech is relatively easy to distinguish for
               | now).
        
               | ectopod wrote:
               | Thirteen years ago I met a traveller who paid their way
               | with travel writing, which was basically blog spam. They
               | soon ran out of authentic material so they started
               | writing about places they'd never been using some light
               | googling for inspiration. For a long time now people have
               | been making advertising money by creating bullshit on a
               | large scale. How are you going to prove that any content
               | is organic?
        
               | neaden wrote:
               | Am I alone in not being sure if the commenter here fed
               | the parent into GPT as a prompt to generate output or
               | actually wrote this?
        
               | paulmd wrote:
               | Afraid not, I actually wrote all that shit...
        
             | jollyllama wrote:
             | Are we not already there?
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | > Google is still a search engine first
         | 
         | The web has eroded to a place where a few platforms contain
         | most of the salient information for consumers.
        
           | codeviking wrote:
           | Maybe you're right. But I'm not convinced.
           | 
           | I feel like the mass centralization of content is starting to
           | unwind a bit. As things scale the generalized sources usually
           | become less valuable to me. With more content comes more
           | noise, and that noise is hard to sift through. And while
           | Google isn't perfect, they're better at sifting through this
           | noise than most sites are.
           | 
           | Take StackOverflow as an example. When it first emerged I
           | found it really useful. Answers were generally high quality.
           | There were valuable discussions about the merits of one
           | approach versus another. Now it's a sea of duplicate
           | questions, poor answers and meandering discussions. I rarely
           | visit it anymore, as it's rarely helpful. And I regularly
           | have to correct information others glean from it, as it's
           | often wrong or incomplete.
           | 
           | So I suppose this all goes to say that I'm optimistic that
           | things are headed in the right direction. I imagine things
           | will ebb and flow for some time. But I believe Google and
           | other search engines will always have a role to play, as
           | there will always be new, valuable things to discover.
        
       | aresant wrote:
       | Google is literally the "Kleenex" of search
       | 
       | Aka "just Google that"
       | 
       | I imagine the brand and goodwill value will have remarkable
       | staging power forward as consumers decide where to do their AI
       | search
        
       | yalogin wrote:
       | If there is really some other method that is better, why can't
       | google just use that behind the scenes to provide answers? At the
       | end of the day, google is what people are used to. They just go
       | there without thinking. I do agree that the search engines part
       | of it has become less effective but authoritative answers is an
       | evolving field and google will evolve as it does.
        
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