[HN Gopher] Thriving on China's Belt and Road, Laos border town ...
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       Thriving on China's Belt and Road, Laos border town ditches kip for
       yuan
        
       Author : zinekeller
       Score  : 45 points
       Date   : 2022-11-27 17:49 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (asia.nikkei.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (asia.nikkei.com)
        
       | rayiner wrote:
       | The Belt and Road initiative is China's Marshall Plan for Asia
       | and Africa. I don't think Americans realize the scale of Chinese
       | money and engineering investment in these countries. It's a
       | trillion dollar endeavor, six times as large as the Marshall Plan
       | (in today's money). Like the Marshall Plan, it will help local
       | economies develop. But I suspect it will lead to the same long
       | term dependency and alignment with China that Europe has with
       | America. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing but it's
       | something to be cognizant of.
        
         | cactusplant7374 wrote:
         | But how much corruption and how many failed projects? It has
         | been particularly disastrous for Ecuador.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/world/americas/ecuador-ch...
        
           | eliseumds wrote:
           | Has it? Ecuador is doing relatively well overall. Decent
           | infrastructure, growing exports, one of the most stable
           | economies in Latin America. Their GDP grew ~6x since 2000.
           | They took the risk and seem to be on a good development path.
           | Would any other country have offered them loans on better
           | terms? Doubt it.
        
       | jitl wrote:
       | I traveled from Kunming to Vientiane overland over a decade ago.
       | At the time, the best way from Kunming to Laos was to take a
       | sleeper bus to Luang Prabang. The roads were adequate on the
       | China side of the border but unsafe in any kind of rain on the
       | Laos side. On one Kunming--Luang Prabang trip to refresh my visa
       | stay in China, I had to remain in LP for 3-4 extra days because
       | the road washed out. This sort of thing was fairly regular so I
       | was prepared, but still.
       | 
       | In that context, the China-Laos railway is mind blowing. It
       | sounds like it comes at a very steep cost to Laos. Never the
       | less, it's an exciting development and I look forward to riding
       | it north to Kunming once travel into China is less restricted by
       | the zero COVID policy.
        
       | bArray wrote:
       | So the success story here is:
       | 
       | > [..] the yuan is now its main currency of trade.
       | 
       | 1. They lost their own currency.
       | 
       | > [..] it is also increasingly populated by many from across the
       | border hoping to benefit [..]
       | 
       | 2. The 'investment' into the local area is actually being used to
       | employ imported Chinese workers.
       | 
       | > Jua, a 24-year-old truck driver, feels he has been "kept alive"
       | by China. He is paid in yuan every month by a Chinese cargo
       | owner.
       | 
       | 3. Local businesses are being purchased or replaced with Chinese
       | owners.
       | 
       | When they fail to pay back some loans [0], they will be forced to
       | hand over large strategic areas, such as their mining lands [1]
       | on a 99 year lease. Over the next 10 years we will likely see the
       | erosion of Laos sovereignty.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.voanews.com/a/laos-faces-debt-crisis-after-
       | borro...
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Laos_Product_Exports_(201...
        
         | rfoo wrote:
         | > employ imported Chinese workers
         | 
         | Isn't what you quoted contradicted this? Jua is not a Chinese
         | name.
        
         | badrabbit wrote:
         | Yes, Chinese workers but work still gets done. This isn't a
         | developed nation, perhaps if the west is willing to do business
         | your comment and sentiment has validity but sitting at Chinese
         | workers and Chinese debt us better than sitting at a distance
         | and pitying those poor people and occasionally tossing charity
         | their way.
         | 
         | Perhaps instead of criticizing China you should criticize the
         | west for not besting China? Why isn't europe doing this,
         | afterall they are the final destination of the belt road and
         | they get a ton of stuff from China and can benefit to trade
         | with the rest of asia? IMF and worldbank also hold a ton of
         | debt on developing countries. I mean, I like to think I am the
         | last person to support the CCP but bullshit is bullshit!
        
         | Yeahsureok wrote:
         | What happens when you fail to pay back loans to western
         | companies? " _oh no worries, we 'll just write it off and you
         | keep all your assets_"?
         | 
         | This handwringing on stuff like this is fairly transparent.
        
           | SR2Z wrote:
           | Yes! Western companies are much more willing to do due
           | diligence before issuing loans because they don't (at least
           | these days) have an army to expropriate assets when their
           | debtors default.
           | 
           | This is an actual significant difference between China and
           | the West: China is much more willing to invest in countries
           | with less capable governments and relatively weaker rule of
           | law because the Chinese state is underwriting the loans and
           | has much more weight to throw around.
           | 
           | There's a reason why US companies are much more reluctant to
           | invest in developing nations.
        
             | xyzzyz wrote:
             | This is a reason, but there are other reasons too. For
             | example, developing nations are often full of corrupt
             | practices. This typically is not a huge problem for
             | investors, you just pay a few bribes, it's a cost of doing
             | business. What is a problem, though, is laws like Foreign
             | Corrupt Practices Act, which makes it a crime for US
             | investors to pay bribes in foreign countries. I'm quite
             | sure that it feels very moral to ban that, and it totally
             | had no protectionist intent whatsoever when it was passed,
             | but the practical outcome is that if doing business in a
             | country is impossible without paying a few bribes here and
             | there (and it is in most poor countries, low trust in
             | institutions is one of the reasons they are poorer than us
             | in the first place), they will not get any foreign
             | investment, which will keep them poor.
        
           | bArray wrote:
           | There is supposed to be due diligence on the issuing of
           | loans, like a person getting a mortgage for a house, but for
           | an entire Country. It is well known that the likes of Goldman
           | Sachs, JP Morgan, etc, have been acting immorally in this
           | regard. As far as I'm aware, Western loans are recouped
           | through assets seizure, and there are large programmes in
           | place to write off debt for those who would be perpetually
           | bound by it.
           | 
           | That said, the idea of a 99 year lease seems particularly
           | troubling. It's essentially the time frame where everybody
           | whom agreed to the arrangement will be long dead, and
           | generations of people would have been raised not knowing the
           | land was in fact leased. I suspect kicking people out of
           | somewhere they have been for almost 100 years is not easy.
           | 
           | Worse still is that the land acquired via the 99 year lease
           | will be highly profitable land, with all profits and
           | resources used for China's benefit. This further entraps the
           | local Laos economy, where mining appears to make up major
           | portion of their exports. Not only will they still be saddled
           | with debt, they will now be less capable of repaying it.
        
             | Someone wrote:
             | All true, but I guess the Chinese will point to https://en.
             | wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_for_the_Extension_o...:
             | 
             |  _"In the wake of China 's defeat in the First Sino-
             | Japanese War (1894-1895), the British took advantage of the
             | other European powers' scramble to carve up the country and
             | forced the treaty on the weakened Chinese government.
             | 
             | Between 6 March and 8 April 1898, the German government
             | forced the Qing Empire into a 99-year lease of the
             | Kiautschou Bay concession for a coaling station around
             | Jiaozhou Bay on the southern coast of the Shandong
             | Peninsula, to support a German global naval presence in
             | direct opposition to the British network of global naval
             | bases. This initiated a series of similar lease treaties
             | with other European powers. On 27 March 1898, the
             | Convention for the Lease of the Liaotung Peninsula was
             | signed between the Russian Empire and the Qing Empire,
             | granting Russia a 25-year lease of Port Arthur and Dalian,
             | to support Russia's Chinese Eastern Railway interests in
             | Manchuria. Consequently on 28 March 1898, Britain, anxious
             | of the Russian presence in China, pressured the Qing Empire
             | into leasing of Weihaiwei, which had been captured by the
             | Empire of Japan in the Battle of Weihaiwei, the last major
             | battle of the First Sino-Japanese War, for as long as the
             | Russians occupying Port Arthur, to make checks and balances
             | of Russia. During the negotiation, the British stated that
             | they would further request for leasing of land if any
             | foreign concession took place in Southern China.
             | 
             | On 10 April 1898, the French, who also desired Chinese
             | territory, forced the Qing Empire into a 99-year lease of
             | Kwang-Chou-Wan to France to support France in southern
             | China and Indochina. In order to maintain the balance of
             | powers, Britain ordered Claude Maxwell MacDonald to
             | pressure Qing Empire into allowing the expansion of Hong
             | Kong for 200 miles (320 km). As a result, the Convention
             | for the Extension of Hong Kong Territory was signed on 9
             | June 1898 in Beijing (Peking). The contract was signed to
             | give the British full jurisdiction of the newly acquired
             | land that was necessary to ensure proper military defence
             | of the colony around the island. Some of the earliest
             | proposals for the land's usage in 1894 included cemetery
             | space, an exercise ground for British troops as well as
             | land for development. From the British perspective concerns
             | over security and territorial defence provided the major
             | impetus for the agreement."_
             | 
             | Over a century ago, but more forced upon them than this is
             | upon Laos.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | _> That said, the idea of a 99 year lease seems
             | particularly troubling._
             | 
             | I wonder where they could have got that idea from [1]
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_for_the_Extens
             | ion_o...
        
               | kingo55 wrote:
               | At least there is now precedent for breaking these
               | contracts now too.
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | The IMF and World Bank regularly forgive loans.
        
         | yarg wrote:
         | It's a Chinese invasion in slow motion. The same as Africa.
         | 
         | One day, these people will wake up and realise that they're
         | second class citizens in someone else's country.
        
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       (page generated 2022-11-27 23:01 UTC)