[HN Gopher] Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
        
       Author : rurp
       Score  : 279 points
       Date   : 2022-11-17 14:35 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.axios.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.axios.com)
        
       | BurnGpuBurn wrote:
       | I just can't get my head around why SBF and his cronies aren't in
       | jail yet. Guess it might never happen with friends like that.
        
         | ceejayoz wrote:
         | No criminal fraud prosecution happens that quickly, and the
         | "friends" are only friends when there's millions of donations
         | to throw around. None of the politicians SBF and his co-CEO
         | were purchasing will be returning their calls today.
        
         | rufusroflpunch wrote:
         | Hopefully it is just a matter of them still trying to figure
         | out the depth and nature of the crimes.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | What specific crime are you accusing him of?
        
           | hanniabu wrote:
           | He stole user funds to use in his investment company. He even
           | built a backdoor in the accounting system to move the money
           | without setting off alerts with the security send audit team.
        
           | recursive wrote:
           | "I'm surprised you didn't hit any trees running through that
           | forest with your eyes closed."
           | 
           | "Which specific tree do you think I should have hit?"
        
         | kayamon wrote:
         | People in finance don't go to jail.
        
         | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
         | Going bankrupt is not a crime in itself (ask any former
         | president, one has experience and the other is a lawyer)). Yes,
         | there is a lot that looks kinda criminal, but it will take a
         | bit more than a week to put together a criminal prosecution.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | UC Berkeley had a stadium naming deal with FTX.[1]
       | 
       |  _Is there a connection between FTX and Cal?_
       | 
       |  _FTX Chief Operating Officer Sina Nader earned his bachelor 's
       | degree in humanities from Cal and was a walk-on member of the
       | Golden Bear football team as an undergraduate. He played
       | defensive end from 1999-2001, when he was a teammate of such
       | players as Andre Carter, Tully Banta-Cain and Scott Fujita, and
       | graduated in 2002. Sina's last named at the time was
       | Pyghambarzadeh (he changed it to Nader to make life a lot
       | easier!)._
       | 
       |  _Who at Cal was involved in the decision?_
       | 
       |  _Members of the athletic department worked with Cal Bears Sports
       | Properties (Cal 's multimedia rightsholder and local dedicated
       | LEARFIELD team) to lead the discussions that led to the agreement
       | with FTX. University leadership were informed throughout the
       | process, including Chancellor Carol Christ. The approval for
       | naming FTX Field at California Memorial Stadium came from the
       | Space Assignments and Capital Improvements Committee, chaired by
       | Vice Provost Lisa Alvarez-Cohen, which addresses use and
       | assignment of campus space, capital-projects planning and the
       | development of the capital-improvement program._
       | 
       | [1] https://calbears.com/news/2021/8/23/athletics-news-cal-
       | ftx-a... (Archived at https://archive.ph/wip/MhjHd)
        
         | ShamelessC wrote:
         | Hope they feel good about propping this whole scam up a bunch.
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | The FTX logo has already been removed from the field
           | sidelines.
        
             | ShamelessC wrote:
             | Too little, too late.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | The good news is that the problems seem to be confined to the
       | crypto sector. There are a few hedge funds and pension funds with
       | losses, but so far, nobody in "traditional finance" seems to have
       | huge exposure to crypto. So the real world economy keeps on
       | running normally while the crypto sector gets flushed.
        
         | mempko wrote:
         | You are underestimating the creative products that the finance
         | world can create from any asset, real or imaginary.
        
         | ilamont wrote:
         | I don't think we've heard the whole story about the exposure of
         | legit orgs and businesses.
         | 
         | If a pension fund loses 1%, that's manageable. If it's 10%,
         | that's a crisis for anyone expecting benefit checks every
         | month, and possibly a much wider pool of people/orgs if some
         | kind of rescue or bailout is required.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | Starting a few months ago, some major banks were issuing loans
         | using Crypto as collateral:
         | https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-loans/crypto-loans/
         | 
         | Glad it's falling apart now before it sucks the entire economy
         | down with it.
        
         | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
         | It's noteworthy that this is not a coincidence (coin-
         | incidence?) but the result of, first among others, the SEC
         | holding steady in the face of a lot of pressure in limiting the
         | financial system's exposure.
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | Yes. If crypto ETFs had been approved, other parts of the
           | financial system would be crashing. The SEC rejected the EFT
           | applications. That was close.
        
         | sgloutnikov wrote:
         | It's just a blip in a way. The entire global crypto market cap
         | has gone down around $800B, roughly the same market cap that
         | Amazon has lost recently.
        
           | NationalPark wrote:
           | The difference, of course, is that Amazon's market cap has
           | actual assets and cash flows behind it. The liquidation value
           | of all of crypto on the other hand is approximately $0.
        
       | rchaud wrote:
       | Part of the reason crypto's history maps to tradFi's history so
       | precisely is because there aren't that many unique ways to make
       | more money out of an existing pile of money.
       | 
       | The debate about whether these tokens meet economic definitions
       | of currency is besides the point; the goal, like tradFi, is to
       | accumulate as many of them as possible and do whatever it takes
       | to protect their price (pump) until you're ready to shift the
       | risk to someone else (dump).
        
         | lottin wrote:
         | TradFi is built around providing financial services. It's not
         | built around issuing virtual assets and then pumping & dumping
         | them, I don't know where you get this notion from.
        
         | deebosong wrote:
         | well said. very simple, clear, and observable in reality. i
         | feel like i've said this in a more roundabout way to friends,
         | fam, and myself (when trying to wrap my head around all of this
         | to explore it or steer clear).
        
       | spoonjim wrote:
       | Hopefully this is the end of this entire dumbfuck historical
       | moment. Absolute fleecing of normal people disguised as some kind
       | of technosocial revolution.
        
         | fullshark wrote:
         | Nah, it'll happen again. This will spur on regulations for
         | custodial wallets, and the next boom cycle will involve TradFi
         | contagion risk.
         | 
         | BTC price isn't moving, no one is liquidating, volatility is
         | lowest its ever been, none of the hodlers have given up yet and
         | probably won't, they are just waiting it out to try again in
         | 2-5 years.
        
         | kayamon wrote:
         | Do you not want a technosocial revolution?
        
       | majani wrote:
       | Dominoes indeed are falling, but the coin prices are staying
       | largely the same. Perhaps we're at a point where most people are
       | already down so much from last year that it makes no sense to
       | sell, no matter what the news says
        
       | shakezula wrote:
       | > Crypto hedge fund Galois Capital said roughly half its capital
       | is stuck in FTX, according to the Financial Times.
       | 
       | This is astounding to me. I would be curious how long they kept
       | their money in an exchange and if that's common practice among
       | other firms.
        
         | DonsDiscountGas wrote:
         | I would guess they traded crypto on FTX very frequently.
        
       | isitpossible88 wrote:
       | Does anyone know Coinbase's involvement or reach into FTX?
        
         | machinekob wrote:
         | 15 000 000 usd minimal exposure.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | Aren't these "dominoes" just more or less TradFi companies?
        
         | joosters wrote:
         | If you want to talk in terms of coins, some of the direct
         | fallout includes:
         | 
         | FTT: $26 -> $1.60 Serum: $0.80 -> $0.26 Solana: $36 -> $14
         | 
         | Or, more indirectly all crypto 'market cap' in general: $1050B
         | -> $825B. Ok, so market cap is pretty ephemeral, but chances
         | are, if you held any crypto prior to FTX collapsing, its
         | theoretical value has dropped because of it. DeFi doesn't make
         | you immune.
        
         | vintermann wrote:
         | Sure. TradFi companies that everyone in the RadFi ecosystem
         | rely on.
        
         | ForHackernews wrote:
         | No, these are the unregulated bucket shops and wildcat banks
         | favored by the bold adventurers of web3.
        
         | polygamous_bat wrote:
         | They are the pioneers of Web3 and crypto adoption as long as
         | they're paying unreasonable APY in a 0% interest rate regime,
         | and a more or less tradfi company as soon as they are exposed
         | to be a ponzi scheme. Because we all know crypto is perfect and
         | can't fail.
        
           | rippercushions wrote:
           | Interest rates aren't 0% anymore. Of course, this only makes
           | things even harder for crypto Ponzis, because they have to
           | offer even more unsustainable rates to keep up.
        
             | polygamous_bat wrote:
             | I agree with you, arguably interest rate raising above the
             | minimum is what exposed a lot of these scams.
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | Capitalism is at fault here.
       | 
       | Unless there are right regulations in a capitalistic system,
       | capitalism will create abuse and problems.
       | 
       | We are in 2022 and it's really annoying how we cannot discuss
       | deep changes in how capitalism functions unless an army of trolls
       | brings up the gulag point: "the soviet union failed, thus there
       | is no viable alternative to capitalism".
       | 
       | It's already almost difficult to discuss it criticize growth, so
       | socialism is really beyond taboo.
        
         | rolobio wrote:
         | Many of the things done at FTX are already a crime. The laws
         | simply aren't being enforced for the mega rich.
        
         | kspacewalk2 wrote:
         | Capitalism is not any more at fault here than GPUs or math.
         | 
         | Yes, the right regulations are indeed vital for a capitalistic
         | system. Saying "capitalism will create abuse and problems
         | without regulations" is like saying "cars will cause death and
         | destruction without a steering wheel". That's why we don't
         | build them without steering wheels, and a car without a
         | steering wheel is not really a car.
         | 
         | A financial market is a market, the very word "market"
         | necessarily implies regulation, like all markets had since the
         | dawn of time (it's why you brought your stuff there, and why
         | the customers came). If a new technology creates a new niche in
         | the financial market, and regulation has not caught up yet,
         | nothing is wrong with the concept of capitalism, the problem is
         | that regulation has not caught up yet. And now it largely has,
         | and these companies are blowing up, and the system works. Not
         | sure what is supposed to make us "discuss deep changes in how
         | capitalism functions" if how modern capitalism functions is
         | fixing the problem.
        
         | nyolfen wrote:
         | > It's already almost difficult to discuss it criticize growth
         | 
         | turning the social meta from positive sum to zero or negative
         | sum is the most disastrous idea conceivable. everything you
         | cherish, including your physical safety, is built on an
         | assumption of shared future rewards. people will seek advantage
         | no matter what; they must have a socially productive avenue or
         | it will be taken from others.
         | 
         | if you are so sure an alternative is possible, i encourage you
         | to demonstrate it -- live your life with others in a way that
         | defies market forces. the proof is in the pudding; for now,
         | there is only one game in town.
        
           | barbazoo wrote:
           | > i encourage you to demonstrate it -- live your life with
           | others in a way that defies market forces. the proof is in
           | the pudding; for now, there is only one game in town.
           | 
           | are you implying that you positively know that there is not a
           | single group of people on the planet living an alternative
           | that's better than what the majority is doing?
        
             | nyolfen wrote:
             | no, i am saying that it does not matter what i believe,
             | because if there is a superior system it will require no
             | belief at all. this conversation reminds me of this essay h
             | ttp://hyperstition.abstractdynamics.org/archives/008891.htm
             | ...
        
       | warinukraine wrote:
       | > Crypto hedge fund Galois Capital said roughly half its capital
       | is stuck in FTX, according to the Financial Times.
       | 
       | "stuck" - LOL. Hope dies last.
        
       | ForHackernews wrote:
       | > paused withdrawals
       | 
       | So... chapter 11 by Monday?
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | dead by dawn! dead by dawn! - Evil Dead 2
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | > "State of play: The Gemini Earn program allowed users to
       | deposit their coins in exchange for regular interest payments --
       | typically at generous rates that could be as high as 8%."
       | 
       | Bernie Madoff's exclusive private fund had investors lining up to
       | get in, based on Madoff's history of returning a steady 10% to
       | investors. Of course it was all a big Ponzi scheme...
        
       | gjsman-1000 wrote:
       | I actually had accounts with Gemini Earn, Celsius Network, _and_
       | BlockFi, and money in all of them (as a just in case one fails
       | thing). However, after the crypto crash earlier this year, and
       | reading  "Not your keys - not your crypto" for the millionth
       | time, I pulled them all out and put them in an Exodus wallet. I
       | calculated the APY loss but decided better safe than sorry - even
       | though, in my head, I thought the odds of any individual one of
       | them failing was extremely low, let alone all of them.
       | 
       | Holy !@#$ing cow. Dodged multiple bullets. At least I didn't
       | share my financial plan at the time at the Thanksgiving table
       | last year or it would be really awkward now (thank goodness my
       | uncle took that role in a small capacity)...
        
         | no_butterscotch wrote:
         | > Exodus wallet
         | 
         | I've still got everything on just Coinbase, which I assume (?!)
         | is reliable enough to not be at risk.
         | 
         | What's the "upsell" for using a wallet? The "not your keys"
         | argument logically makes sense to me but it doesn't seem worth
         | it from a convenience stand-point.
        
           | AuryGlenz wrote:
           | My experience with my hardware wallet is that I put some
           | stuff on it, left it for a year, and then when I went to go
           | plug it in it wanted to update. The update will wipe it.
           | 
           | I can use my recovery seed phrase after, but as far as I'm
           | concerned that's an "oh crap" backup. For all I know I could
           | have screwed up writing it down. Unlikely, but possible.
           | Apparently it's also possible to other software wallets to
           | get the crypto off of there.
           | 
           | Frankly, if there aren't ways for the average non-tech person
           | to safely and reliably hold crypto there's no point. Most of
           | my stuff is on Coinbase and I've always figured that if that
           | ship goes down the whole thing will come crashing down
           | anyhow.
        
           | guizzy wrote:
           | > Coinbase, which I assume (?!) is reliable enough to not be
           | at risk.
           | 
           | This is what anyone could have said about FTX until suddenly
           | it wasn't.
           | 
           | The upsell is complete access to the DeFi ecosystem. Not just
           | the part your exchange wants to support. The convenience
           | issue is overblown, at least for tech inclined people like
           | commenters here would be.
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | > the odds of any individual one of them failing was extremely
         | low, let alone all of them.
         | 
         | that reminds me of the tranches in mortgage backed securities
         | during the 2008/9 financial crisis.
         | 
         | See this scene from The Big Short
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WUGhteNlzM
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | I don't know what your savings plan look like, but I hope your
         | idea of diversification is not to have all of your savings in a
         | varied array of crytocurrencies :-)))
        
           | gjsman-1000 wrote:
           | Of course not - I only saw it as a way of diversifying the
           | crypto portion of my diversified investments. But there was a
           | bit of crypto - I'm just glad I didn't recommend others join
           | me.
        
       | ninepoints wrote:
       | > "Galois Capital"
       | 
       | What a stain on the name of a great mathematician
        
         | EthanHeilman wrote:
         | Galois should remove this stain by demanding that Galois
         | Capital face him on the field of honor.
        
           | blululu wrote:
           | Ironic too since Galois was a devoted Republican while these
           | folks are clearly in the Orleanist camp.
        
         | oldgradstudent wrote:
         | Had Galois been alive he probably would have challenged them to
         | a duel.
        
       | jpm_sd wrote:
       | The incomparable Molly White has put together a contagion flow
       | chart, which she is updating regularly:
       | 
       | https://www.mollywhite.net/etc/ftx-contagion
       | 
       | See also her explanatory newsletter
       | 
       | https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/
        
         | jjfoooo5 wrote:
         | How does Binance fit into this chart? I understand them to be
         | the biggest remaining exchange
        
         | colbyhub wrote:
         | She also runs https://web3isgoinggreat.com which is helpful for
         | staying just-enough up to date with all the crazy things going
         | on in the crypto space if you don't want to sign up for her
         | newsletter!
        
         | shmatt wrote:
         | I can't believe I missed the news the big corporate Gemini also
         | halted withdrawals on their APY product
         | 
         | If its not completely clear by now: no, these companies can't
         | promise you 8% APY without essentially running a ponzi scheme.
         | I'm sure even Madoff had some good years during bull runs. The
         | only other semi-possible option is burning VC money with those
         | APY's, which is maybe what Coinbase is doing
        
           | zhdc1 wrote:
           | > If its not completely clear by now: no, these companies
           | can't promise you 8% APY without essentially running a ponzi
           | scheme. I'm sure even Madoff had some good years during bull
           | runs
           | 
           | It's almost impossible to beat the market after fees. Anyone
           | who promises to do so, consistently, is full of it. French
           | (2008) and a whole body of literature before and after.
        
             | xorcist wrote:
             | Which market? I own some bonds that yields 8%.
        
               | chollida1 wrote:
               | Yield to maturity is far different that yearly yield.
               | 
               | though it is possible to find some bonds that have an
               | annual yield of 8%. Though no one would expect them all
               | to make it maturity without any credit issues.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | You can find a very few. But they are limited in some
               | way, and almost always government-funded.
               | 
               | https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-
               | int...
               | 
               | iBonds hit above 8% return in a year if you bought at
               | just the right time this year, IIRC.
               | 
               | Of course, if you calculate _real return_ then you will
               | have a sad.
        
               | arcticfox wrote:
               | There's also a very real counterparty risk in bonds that
               | need to give 8%.
               | 
               | Inflation bonds are kind of an exception there, since if
               | inflation is 8% the market should be doing much better
               | than that on average.
        
               | NotYourLawyer wrote:
               | Are they Venezuela or Zimbabwe?
        
               | mrDmrTmrJ wrote:
               | US federal funds rate hit 19.39 percent in April 1980. As
               | a result long-term state bond did very well for their
               | owners as inflation came down. My mom told stories about
               | "Massachusetts Nines" with legendary 9% yields.
               | 
               | Utilities and co-ops issued ~15% paper which also did
               | extremely well for those who purchased it in the early
               | 80s.
        
               | everybodyknows wrote:
               | Know offhand what the 30-year yielded back in '80?
               | 
               | For reference, the 30 is now at about 100bp less than
               | shorter treasuries:
               | 
               | https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data/rates
        
               | mcguire wrote:
               | ~11% (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2012/pdf/ER
               | P-2012-ta...)
        
               | NotYourLawyer wrote:
               | Sure, back then. But I'm guessing these are not 50+ year
               | maturities still paying out.
        
             | baobabKoodaa wrote:
             | > It's almost impossible to beat the market after fees.
             | Anyone who promises to do so, consistently, is full of it.
             | French (2008) and a whole body of literature before and
             | after.
             | 
             | Not this dead horse again. Yes, academics have written a
             | lot of papers claiming things that turned out to be false.
             | See Renaissance Medallion Fund and Berkshire Hathaway for
             | references.
        
               | mcguire wrote:
               | I'm not sure Berkshire Hathaway is comparable to anything
               | in the crypto sphere.
        
               | baobabKoodaa wrote:
               | Parent was referring to French (2008). Bitcoin was
               | created in 2009, so the whole crypto sphere didn't exist
               | in 2008. The reference was in relation to stock markets
               | (and also to some extent derivative markets and bond
               | markets etc.). Berkshire Hathaway is a good example of
               | how stock markets are not efficient.
        
               | lottin wrote:
               | What exactly turned out to be false?
        
               | baobabKoodaa wrote:
               | Efficient markets hypothesis in the context of stock and
               | derivatives markets.
        
           | ummonk wrote:
           | Funny, just saw a comment a few days ago on HN advocating
           | Gemini over Tether and I was wondering why he thought 5-8%
           | yields weren't a scam.
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33568884
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | 8%? Nexo's was promising 16% APR as recently as Nov 11
           | according to Google's cache (https://webcache.googleuserconte
           | nt.com/search?q=cache:eN2KEV...). The page redirects to the
           | home page now.
           | 
           | I've seen "bonus" APRs as high as 40% offered.
           | 
           | https://crypto.com/us/earn is still offering 14.5% APR, and
           | 8.5% on stablecoins, after accidentally sending $400M to a
           | competitor.
        
             | joosters wrote:
             | https://nexo.io/earn-crypto is still up and promises 16%
             | APR - I think they are the last ones standing now. I'm sure
             | your money is safe with them, they proudly talk about their
             | excellent Trustpilot rating /s
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | That page redirects me to the home page, as well. Either
               | it's because I'm in the US or they're taking things down.
        
               | mattwad wrote:
               | I'm in the US and it is sending me to a home page that
               | offers 16%
        
               | luckylion wrote:
               | Probably geofenced, it works for me (Germany) and shows
               | the offer
               | 
               | > Earn 16% on Crypto
               | 
               | > Make your idle digital assets work for you with Nexo.
               | Start earning up to 16% APR, paid out daily.
        
               | opendomain wrote:
               | can you grab a screenshot?
        
               | luckylion wrote:
               | https://archive.ph/Dzojr this is what it currently shows
               | to me
        
               | xorcist wrote:
               | "Up to". Aren't all of those high yielding services
               | strictly in some crazy token that is bound to constantly
               | deprecate?
        
               | pakitan wrote:
               | They are. The highest 16% is offered for the Polkadot
               | shitcoin. Without even touching Nexo, you can get 12%
               | just by regular Polkadot staking. To get the 16% that
               | Nexo offers, you need to have 10% of your portfolio in
               | Nexo's own shitcoin and thus you're moved to the
               | "Platinum" level, which is eligible for higher yields. Of
               | course, as you say, Nexo's shitcoin is bound to
               | depreciate.
        
               | MerelyMortal wrote:
               | Isn't that what BitConnect was?
        
             | lizknope wrote:
             | Binance offered 45%
             | 
             | https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/earn-up-
             | to-4...
        
             | shawabawa3 wrote:
             | Crypto.com advertises massively inflated APRs, to achieve
             | those you need to hold a limited amount of the asset and a
             | huge amount of CRO
             | 
             | e.g. to hit the headline rate of 14.5% APR, you need to
             | hold no more than $3,000 of DOT and at least $40,000 of CRO
             | (their own token)
             | 
             | the reason it's so high for DOT is that DOT is currently
             | paying 15% APR to validators.
             | 
             | It's extremely shady what crypto.com are doing but not
             | necessarily unsustainable, because they're basically lying
             | about what APR you can get
        
               | coffeebeqn wrote:
               | _cough_ FTT _cough_
               | 
               | Holding 40k in CRO would be extremely unwise right now
               | no?
        
               | kikokikokiko wrote:
               | So what you're saying is that it's just a garden variety
               | Ponzi scheme, and not anything original. If you put 12
               | times the capital, they'll pay you "14.5%" yield on the
               | principal. The moment they run out of fools to put this
               | massive amounts of cash on the pyramid, it will go down
               | as all Ponzis do. Crypto must die at this point, it's the
               | only solution to this mess.
        
               | roody15 wrote:
               | Crypto like Bitcoin is fine. Exchanges that are stealing
               | money are the problem. Confusing the two is a mistake IMO
        
               | lottin wrote:
               | Exchanges are a crucial part of the bitcoin economy.
               | Miners need to sell the bitcoins that they earn in order
               | to pay the bills.
        
               | roody15 wrote:
               | You can sell and transfer bitcoin directly without any
               | need for an exchange.
        
               | lottin wrote:
               | Sure and you can buy groceries directly from the farmer.
               | It's just not practical at any meaningful scale.
        
           | x3sphere wrote:
           | Coinbase doesn't have any lending products. Aside from one
           | that will give you USD as a loan for holding your BTC as
           | collateral which isn't the same thing.
           | 
           | They do offer staking but that's the not the same either.
           | Return is generated from the networks themselves - like with
           | ETH they are offering 4% APY after a 25% cut. That seems
           | completely fine.
        
           | dna_polymerase wrote:
           | > If its not completely clear by now: no, these companies
           | can't promise you 8% APY without essentially running a ponzi
           | scheme.
           | 
           | If you look into protocols like Polkadot you will find that
           | inflation is built-in and staking is a mechanism used to
           | secure the protocol. In turn, you get a nice APY, but the
           | coin dilutes over time.
        
           | highwaylights wrote:
           | This has all been done before (P2P lending) with exactly the
           | same outcome, in the _very_ recent past (last ten years).
           | 
           | It's hard to have empathy for these people when they've been
           | so obnoxious up until now to anyone trying to help them with
           | learned experience.
           | 
           | Assuming you're not running an outright Ponzi scheme, then
           | when you increase interest rates, you lower your borrower
           | quality by the same amount, meaning your risk increases by
           | _at least_ the same ratio (or more).
           | 
           | By taking 8% interest or more, during a period of
           | historically low interest rates, you were lending to the
           | least reliable borrowers in existence - those borrowers that
           | absolutely everyone lending money at lower rates said no to
           | or, even worse, shady gamblers who can't legitimately draw
           | finance from the traditional financial system without raising
           | alarm bells.
           | 
           | There's no surprise in this outcome to anyone with even a
           | basic understanding of maths and/or economics. It's sad, but
           | utterly predictable.
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | > This has all been done before (P2P lending) with exactly
             | the same outcome, in the very recent past (last ten years).
             | 
             | Amen. I burned a couple grand in Prosper in the mid 00s,
             | primarily because I'm an idiot. I think a lesson there also
             | applies here:
             | 
             | 1. If you are a borrower, and had decent credit, you'd just
             | go to a normal bank, because you could get much lower
             | rates.
             | 
             | 2. So the only people borrowing on Prosper were people with
             | horrible credit (and for good reason), who basically got
             | free money on Prosper and then promptly defaulted,
             | sometimes after like a month or 2 of payments.
             | 
             | Same thing goes with crypto. If you're earning 8-10%
             | interest, it means someone else is _paying_ slightly more
             | than that to borrow, which they would only do because they
             | can 't get cheaper rates.
        
               | adabyron wrote:
               | Prosper! That's the name of the place that took my poor
               | money.
               | 
               | This reminds me, I think the exchanges also used that
               | borrowed money to allow others to borrow against it to
               | hedge or speculate on big moves. Those people were for
               | sure paying much higher rates. They would of course pay
               | those higher rates because they were assuming a big move
               | in the price.
        
             | adabyron wrote:
             | I got crushed percentage wise but only stuck a few hundred
             | dollars in to P2P lending in the early 2000's before my
             | state & many others made it illegal. I could understand the
             | risk in that situation though.
             | 
             | With Crypto, I'm not sure if I do. To my understanding, you
             | deposit money into a cryptocurrency, like ETH for example,
             | in an exchange. The exchange then uses it as liquidity to
             | allow other people to convert one cryptocurrency to
             | another. Am I understanding this right? If so, it was my
             | assumption that they were making 10% on transaction fees &
             | rewarding you with 8% or something lower than 10%.
             | 
             | In that case, my risk/reward assumption was that many of
             | them would raise/lower their rates based on the amount of
             | transactions being done & how valuable the liquidity was to
             | them. I saw that some exchanges did this in terms of months
             | & others were constantly changing their rates.
             | 
             | Am I wrong in thinking that this is something that should
             | be feasible to do without be a ponzi scheme? Of course
             | there is extra risk based on how long the interest rate is
             | fixed for if the market were to go down fast. I would
             | assume banks are similar in the sense that you might buy a
             | Certificate of Deposit (CD) or type of a bond and you get a
             | fixed rate for a period of time. Your country's currency
             | could drastically change or inflation could change. For
             | most countries this isn't near as volatile though.
        
               | Robin_Message wrote:
               | I'm not a crypto user, but charging 10% to swap one set
               | of bits for another doesn't seem like a viable business
               | model.
        
               | adabyron wrote:
               | The numbers are all over the place. Just an FYI, 10% in
               | this context is APY or the return after letting it sit
               | for a year. It's not 10% each transaction. I believe each
               | cryptocurrency has their own fees & they're all very
               | different. I think many are fixed fees, so the percentage
               | varies depending on how large of a transaction you're
               | doing.
        
               | andruby wrote:
               | Why would an exchange need to borrow money from you to
               | allow transactions?
               | 
               | Both parties of the transaction send their money to the
               | exchange before the transaction takes place. That means
               | the exchange actually has excess (working) capital.
        
               | adabyron wrote:
               | The reasoning I understood was to provide liquidity of
               | currencies, not money in general.
               | 
               | So if I want to sell my ABC token for XYZ token, they are
               | borrowing your XYZ token that you have gaining interest
               | to make the transaction work. They are then taking the
               | ABC token I sold to credit an ABC token they had borrowed
               | from someone else.
               | 
               | I may be completely wrong on this but that was my
               | understanding of why this worked. Of course it doesn't
               | work when everyone wants to take their money out. I would
               | assume a responsible entity would use the money earned
               | from fees to help provide liquidity.
               | 
               | I would also assume a responsible entity would want to
               | stop transactions of ABC token if there was no longer
               | enough liquidity to support the above borrowing &
               | trading.
        
           | scandox wrote:
           | I didn't think Madoff actually invested in anything. I
           | thought he just used new funds to pay withdrawals.
        
             | ackbar03 wrote:
             | Saint madoff (in comparison) also was ready to turn himself
             | in when the gig was up
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | rr888 wrote:
           | > these companies can't promise you 8% APY without
           | essentially running a ponzi scheme
           | 
           | It doesn't mean its a ponzi, but certainly an 8% yield isn't
           | a safe investment, there will be some liquidity/market/credit
           | risk. Hopefully its just liquidity.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | Yup. Any company offering that _will_ rugpull you in the
           | future, even if that may not have been their original
           | intention. Therefore you should regard them as radioactive
           | and pull all your money from them - and any  "institution",
           | contract etc that does invest in them.
        
           | xorcist wrote:
           | We should be clear about that Gemini and Coinbase aren't
           | running those schemes.
           | 
           | You buy some sort of tokens on their marketplace with which
           | you can partake in (what very much looks like) ponzi schemes.
           | It's far from clear what their role is in all of this, even
           | if I would think we all would be better off if they distanced
           | themselves from it.
           | 
           | There is probably a lot of customer demand here too. We've
           | seen even the staunchest opponents give in one after another,
           | and offer marketplaces for these tokens.
        
       | lob_it wrote:
       | They are just pushing up the price of tulips. Thats all :p
       | 
       | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market...
       | 
       | Did they even get a moment of silence?
       | 
       | Vaporware has a way of eviscerating
        
         | latchkey wrote:
         | As noted in the article you linked and this one as well [0].
         | There never was a real tulip fever.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-
         | real-...
        
           | lob_it wrote:
           | It was polite joke about pushing up tulips :p
           | 
           | Notice how I didn't say disemboweled with entrails all over
           | the place with all of the fud being distributed about crypto
           | ponzis/vaporware.
           | 
           | https://www.wordnik.com/words/eviscerate
           | 
           | Literacy is fun the mental in your case :p
        
         | 2sk21 wrote:
         | Yes - as an outsider, it feels as if the entire crypto space
         | consists of people selling tulip bulbs to each other.
        
           | lob_it wrote:
           | It was more of a scarcity pun with all the tulips needed for
           | all of them getting buried :p
           | 
           | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-
           | demand.as...
           | 
           | https://poemanalysis.com/idiom/pushing-up-daisies/
        
       | kdragon wrote:
       | As a Bitcoin maxi this is fun to watch. It's like the 08'
       | financial collapse all over again, but there's no bailout coming
       | this time around.
       | 
       | I think it is glaringly obvious at this point that most of
       | society does not understand how money works, and will fall victim
       | to the same old scams no matter where they manifest.
       | 
       | This entire crypto collapse has been a long time coming. You
       | can't simply manufacture money out of nothing, nor can you
       | inflate debt endlessly.
       | 
       | Bitcoin as a community has distanced themselves from 'crypto' and
       | these boiler-room pump and dump scams.
       | 
       | Bitcoin maxis fight for the simplicity and real-word cost behind
       | proof of work for a reason. Bitcoin may be arbitrary digits in a
       | ledger but it isn't free to make. The supply is capped, yet the
       | work anyone can put into securing the ledger is unbounded.
       | 
       | Regardless of where you choose to invest, self custody is king.
       | Get your tokens off exchanges. Not your keys, not your coins.
        
         | ufo wrote:
         | Bitcoin's supply is only capped if you don't count all the
         | forks. 1 BTC = 1BTC + 1BCH + 1BTG + ...
        
         | bvirb wrote:
         | I thought Bitcoin was a really neat idea as an experiment of a
         | completely market driven asset. It seems like it still could
         | become/already is that (I think this is called the "digital
         | gold" idea).
         | 
         | Of course when the mania settles I have no idea if the value of
         | digital-gold-sans-gambling would be $5 or $500,000 or $0. But I
         | do think there is a neat idea that isn't just a pure scam
         | buried in there.
        
           | pocket_cheese wrote:
           | There's companies like Paxos that are actually audited and
           | have a token PAXG that is backed 1:1 with actual gold
           | reserves. The tokens themselves actually have serial numbers
           | that are linked to a physical gold bar.
        
             | bvirb wrote:
             | That is interesting.
             | 
             | To me I think the neat thing about Bitcoin is that the
             | decentralization and lack of intrinsic value are exactly
             | what make it (mostly) purely market driven.
             | 
             | Blockchain/decentralization as a technology I'm not very
             | sold on yet.
        
         | ohgodplsno wrote:
         | Yeah, we know, you burn coal for funny internet monopoly money
         | that's worthless in the real world.
        
         | highwaylights wrote:
         | "Don't buy Tony's magic beans. Tony's magic beans are a scam,
         | they're not really magic at all. I buy my magic beans from
         | Frank. Everyone knows that _only_ Frank grows _real_ magic
         | beans. "
        
           | rufusroflpunch wrote:
           | This is like pretending there's no difference between USD and
           | Turkish Lira. There are substantial and material differences
           | between Bitcoin and nearly all other cryptocurrencies.
        
           | kayamon wrote:
           | The beans with the weird pyramid and floating eye logo are
           | definitely the best beans.
        
             | snapcaster wrote:
             | I know you're being sarcastic but what you said is true.
             | USD is currently the best currency on stability, usage,
             | acceptance, etc.
        
             | polygamous_bat wrote:
             | I agree. They even have a whole army to defend that,
             | unlike, uh, a whole room full of dusty old GPUs burning up
             | a rainforest every time someone makes a transaction. /s
        
         | lawn wrote:
         | > Bitcoin maxis fight for the simplicity and real-word cost
         | behind proof of work for a reason.
         | 
         | No they don't. They promote Lightning Network as some sort of
         | savior of all things, but it's the complete opposite of
         | simplicity and soundness.
        
           | hanniabu wrote:
           | Also it's be revealed that the seemingly only LN app that
           | works without issues is actually just using bitcoin L1 and
           | not using LN at all.
        
             | bogomipz wrote:
             | Might you or someone else have a link that discusses this
             | revelation and failure? I'm kind of surprised to hear this.
        
             | origin_path wrote:
             | Oh? Do tell! That sounds interesting. I lost interest in
             | BTC after they decided to cap the block size and push LN
             | because LN was so poorly thought out.
        
       | dougmwne wrote:
       | I wonder if a crypto contagion could actually help the broader
       | economy by acting as an escape valve. For the past 14 years, the
       | government keeps stepping in to bail out bad bets and keep all
       | the scum floating. But with crypto, it was an an area of the
       | economy that government largely kept its distance from and lacked
       | a mandate. So there will be no will to rescue anything and a full
       | on bank run can commence, destroying lots of wealth. When will
       | then take some of the extra money out of the real economy without
       | having to destroy any traditional business.
        
         | rufusroflpunch wrote:
         | Crypto is a tiny, tiny fraction of global ponzi markets like
         | government bonds or real estate. There is not nearly enough
         | liquidity in crypto to make a difference in those.
        
         | anon291 wrote:
         | Maybe. Unfortunately I think a lot of Americans do have crypto
         | holdings and a lot of investment firms as well. Also, crypto
         | tycoons are heavy contributors to political parties.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | > So there will be no will to rescue anything and a full on
         | bank run can commence, destroying lots of wealth
         | 
         | How does this actually benefit anyone? It's not wealth
         | _redistribution_.
         | 
         | > When will then take some of the extra money out of the real
         | economy
         | 
         | But it wasn't real money in the real economy, it was fake money
         | in a fake economy.
         | 
         | Admittedly _some_ real money went in, and some came out again
         | to buy stadium endorsements and superbowl adverts, but the main
         | effect of this is to wreck the savings of (a) ordinary rubes
         | and (b) over-optimistic VC firms. I can see why people want
         | (b), but you can 't separate it from (a).
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | > How does this actually benefit anyone? It's not wealth
           | redistribution.
           | 
           | Sure it is. It redistributes money from the marks to the
           | crooks.
        
           | johnvanommen wrote:
           | When you take money out of circulation, you reduce inflation.
           | 
           | Here's a "real world example:"
           | 
           | There's a house near me that's selling for $7,777,777 (get
           | it? Lucky sevens?)
           | 
           | The cost of the house is obviously arbitrary, and it's
           | listing has a bunch of references to bitcoin. The owners of
           | the home are obviously trying to "leverage" crypto mania to
           | find a buyer.
           | 
           | Now that a bunch of crypto "wealth" has been destroyed by
           | falling prices, the owner of that house will need to re-
           | assess whether $7,777,777 is a realistic price.
           | 
           | More than likely, it's not. And by lowering the price of the
           | home they're selling, they're contributing to a reduction in
           | real world inflation rates.
           | 
           | Also, yes, I know that inflation stats use a proxy for the
           | cost of housing.
        
             | archontes wrote:
             | Except in both the real world scenario and your example, no
             | money has been taken out of circulation.
             | 
             | If the entire stock market went to zero tomorrow, exactly
             | the same number of dollars would be circulating.
        
               | coding123 wrote:
               | Well it would still have a devastating effect. Most
               | businesses would insta-close tomorrow. And remain closed
               | for months while shit is sorted. Meanwhile panic ensues -
               | world population drops 5b in 1 month.
        
               | monkmartinez wrote:
               | Not true. You would need to know the cost to build the
               | house and/or the price paid for the house prior to this
               | selling event. Once its been sold again, we can assess
               | whether there has been a net reduction or addition to the
               | supply of money/credit/debt.
        
               | syrrim wrote:
               | Money is not just dollars. I consider my bank account
               | money, even though I know its backed by some fraction of
               | its value in actual dollars. People take out loans that
               | are backed by stocks, for example. If the stock market
               | went to zero, they would default on the loan, and money
               | would be destroyed.
        
               | archontes wrote:
               | Your bank account is the solidest non-money because FDIC
               | insured up to $100,000. If it weren't, then it would be
               | an IOU from a bank, worth whatever that trust is worth.
               | 
               | In your loan example, either you haven't spent the money
               | they loaned you, which would then be reclaimed, or you
               | have spent it, in which case someone else has it.
               | 
               | No money would be destroyed in either scenario, unless
               | what you did with the loan was put it in a suitcase and
               | burn it.
               | 
               | The only things that remove money from circulation are:
               | bank accounts that only accrete (usually temporary, and
               | thus not actual removal), taxes, and physical
               | destruction.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | > FDIC insured up to $100,000.
               | 
               | It's now $250,000.
               | 
               | https://www.fdic.gov/resources/deposit-
               | insurance/brochures/i....
        
             | clavalle wrote:
             | Just like when you step out of the ocean in wet trunks you
             | reduce ocean levels.
        
               | coding123 wrote:
               | Well, most people pee when in the ocean.
        
               | wardedVibe wrote:
               | I would _never_ , how dare you
        
           | BeFlatXIII wrote:
           | Some say if you can't afford to lose it all, you can't afford
           | to invest in the first place.
        
           | samsonradu wrote:
           | > How does this actually benefit anyone?
           | 
           | There's real benefit when we consider the amount of man-hours
           | spent the past years on trying to reinvent finance, with
           | little success so far.
           | 
           | These (smart) people can use their time and skills towards
           | more productive stuff.
        
           | _fizz_buzz_ wrote:
           | > How does this actually benefit anyone?
           | 
           | Maybe it will alleviate the semiconductor shortage.
        
           | dougmwne wrote:
           | What is real money anyway? Money is an idea and the money
           | supply contains far more than physical currency. If someone
           | believes they have crypto wealth, they will spend accordingly
           | and the velocity of what we measure as the economy increases.
           | If that crypto wealth disappears, that person is going to cut
           | back on their real spending. The economy is human.
        
             | jmcgough wrote:
             | It's easy to take a philosophical stance on this, but this
             | represents many peoples' life savings. There are countless
             | lives that have been irreparably harmed by crypto scams,
             | which has a net negative effect on our society.
        
               | dougmwne wrote:
               | I think the idea here is that pumping the economy full of
               | helium will eventually be catastrophic. If this crypto
               | crash is allowed to actually play out instead of getting
               | bailed out it could prevent something far more damaging
               | later on than even a million people losing their
               | deposits.
        
         | crazymoka wrote:
         | They will use this to capture all crypto and regulate it.
         | Problem, Reaction, Solution. I think FTX was only caught
         | because Binance exposed them too early before SBF could bring
         | regulation to the exchange and insulate himself. Him, his
         | family and GF all have ties to people that could have made this
         | happen.
         | 
         | Now no matter what the end game is regulation, either by
         | someone like SBF to make it happen or knowing full well it was
         | going to blow up. With regulation they can protect the fox in
         | the hen house like they do with the stock market and keep all
         | the control.
         | 
         | If you don't think so, read in depth what Bernie Madoff did and
         | how connected he was. The best part is, stock market still
         | allows PFOF which he invented to help with his Ponzi scheme.
         | 
         | Just my take on it all...
        
           | radicalbyte wrote:
           | I don't think that it'll be that long until Binance suffer
           | the same fate. Probably about 6 months.
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | > before SBF could bring regulation to the exchange and
           | insulate himself.
           | 
           | If that was his endgame he would've had better record keeping
           | and books. Regulation and paperwork go hand in hand, he was
           | not set up for existing in a regulatory environment.
        
         | groestl wrote:
         | Well, the money is not gone. It's just that somebody else has
         | it. Interesting idea though.
        
           | spaceman_2020 wrote:
           | Sam Bankman Fried marked his 1 billion Serum (a dex on
           | Solana) tokens at $2.1B on his balance sheet.
           | 
           | The last time Serum was worth $2.1+ per token, it was Jan
           | 2022. At current market prices, that same stake is worth less
           | than $250M (given liquidity conditions).
           | 
           | Serum was also a dex that SBF's company, Alameda, pretty much
           | made in-house, and then allocated themselves 1 billion
           | tokens.
           | 
           | So this "wealth" was created out of thin air. And disappeared
           | into thin air.
           | 
           | Ergo, it was not real. It wasn't lost. It never really
           | existed in the first place.
        
           | larryfromtexas wrote:
           | Recommended reading on the topic of wealth destruction by
           | fraud, John Kay "The Bezzle Years." An introductory quote to
           | give you an idea:
           | 
           | More than a half-century ago, John Kenneth Galbraith
           | presented a definitive depiction of the Wall Street Crash of
           | 1929 in a slim, elegantly written volume. Embezzlement,
           | Galbraith observed, has the property that "weeks, months, or
           | years elapse between the commission of the crime and its
           | discovery. This is the period, incidentally, when the
           | embezzler has his gain and the man who has been embezzled
           | feels no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth."
           | Galbraith described that increase in wealth as "the bezzle."
           | 
           | Link: https://www.johnkay.com/2021/09/08/the-bezzle-years/
        
             | shrikant wrote:
             | Very coincidentally, I also just came across a very nice
             | write-up on the bezzle, written around a similar timeframe:
             | https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179
        
           | metadat wrote:
           | If a digital coin goes from $1/per to $0.01/per, the value is
           | destroyed. Where did it go? In this instance: Poof.
           | 
           | Burn baby burn.
        
             | verelo wrote:
             | Nah, even then someone has the money, you just have less.
        
               | johnvanommen wrote:
               | What you say is only true in a liquid and transparent
               | market.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | That's silly. If a real coin, in your hand, goes from
               | being worth $1 to 1C/, who made money?
        
               | alvarezbjm-hn wrote:
               | How can a real physical coin lose 99% of its value?
               | That's inflation
               | 
               | How can a crypto coin lose 99% of its value? It was worth
               | nothing to begin with. No wealth created, no wealth
               | destroyed. Plain transference.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Better example with coins:
               | 
               | If I convince one person to pay $10 for a quarter, are
               | all quarters worth $10?
               | 
               | If you answered "yes", you can run
               | https://coinmarketcap.com/.
        
               | monkmartinez wrote:
               | You can only make that determination when that "someone"
               | utilizes the asset in some manner or converts it back to
               | the original currency.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Not when the money never existed in the first place.
               | 
               | These shitcoins with billion dollar market caps never
               | actually took a billion dollars into any accounts. The
               | volume is fake, the activity is fake, the price is fake.
        
               | chadash wrote:
               | Yeah, but the "money" is irrelevant. 99% of their _buying
               | power_ (which in a simple sense is what people usually
               | mean when they say wealth) went away.
        
           | chadash wrote:
           | No, the _wealth_ actually is gone.
           | 
           | For example, bitcoin has a market cap of $320B. At its peak
           | it was worth about four times that. Did $960B just disappear?
           | Basically, yes.
           | 
           | The coin has no intrinsic value (in the way that a can of
           | corn does, for example). It's worth money because people say
           | it is. And market cap is just a multiple of what it trades
           | for at the margins times the number of shares (coins).
           | 
           | To give an example, say that I bought a bitcoin 10 years ago
           | and that it was my only possession. At its peak, I could have
           | sold the bitcoin for ~$64k, so I had a net worth of 64k. If I
           | didn't sell it at that point and still hold it, I'm now worth
           | ~16k. No one _made_ $48K of of me... there were no
           | transactions in that time period. The  "wealth" has simply
           | vanished.
        
             | ericd wrote:
             | Let's take a different example. Let's say I have 100 foobar
             | coins. I sell one of them to an associated entity for $1,
             | the market cap is now $100, I have $99 in "wealth". That
             | entity sells one back to me for $2, now the market cap is
             | $200. I sell it back for $3, now the market cap is $300.
             | 
             | Do I now actually have $300 in wealth? No, because it's
             | illiquid, and the bid for it more broadly is likely $0, I
             | have to apply a large liquidity discount. It seems like
             | many communities behind these coins have been doing
             | something similar to the internal trading I've been
             | describing here, and hyping them to find outside people
             | willing to trade some of their real dollars for these
             | worthless coins, and those few trades have been used to
             | establish the broader market caps of these things.
             | 
             | All illiquid and somewhat illiquid have this property to
             | varying degrees, ranging from startup stock (no, selling
             | 20% for $1M to a VC doesn't mean your company is actually
             | worth $5M, unless you could find a buyer for all the stock
             | for that much) all the way up to Amazon, Tesla, Apple, etc,
             | because there's no buyer waiting to absorb all the
             | outstanding stock at the current bid. There would be a
             | buyer willing to absorb all of it at _some_ level, but it
             | 's likely at a level far lower than the current market cap.
        
               | chadash wrote:
               | > There would be a buyer willing to absorb all of it at
               | some level, but it's likely at a level far lower than the
               | current market cap.
               | 
               | For crypto, no one would want to buy the _entirety_ of
               | bitcoin, because it basically has no value if it isn 't
               | traded, so it's effectively worth $0 if someone owns all
               | of it.
               | 
               | For companies, this isn't necessarily true. When
               | acquisitions happen, the current market cap is usually
               | the _floor_ , not the ceiling. I agree with your overall
               | point though.
        
               | jboy55 wrote:
               | Twitter is a counter example for your tech stock
               | scenario. However, you could argue that its hyper-
               | inflated Tesla stock trading for hyper-inflated Twitter
               | stock, much like a BTC millionare, trading BTC for ETH.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | Right, if a company finds a buyer, then its market cap is
               | suddenly realized. The liquidity discount is meant to
               | reflect the uncertainty of that given no current bidder
               | for all the stock, and the discount is lower for public
               | companies with demonstrated interest than for private
               | companies. And you can see the downward pressure that
               | Musk's selling Tesla shares has had on its price.
        
               | three_seagrass wrote:
               | This is precisely how I explained NFTs to my "How can
               | NFTs possibly be bad?" friend.
               | 
               | - You start the day with $200,000. You create an NFT and
               | sell it to yourself for $200,000.
               | 
               | - Now you have $200,000 and a $200,000 NFT, meaning
               | you've doubled your wealth to $400,000.
               | 
               | - If you can convince someone to buy that arbitrary NFT
               | at 95% discount, you end up having $210,000 in cash by
               | the EOD.
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | Indeed. It's no different than if I kept a hand written
               | ledger in a paper notebook and sold entries onto that
               | ledger for USD. In this case, people would see its a
               | piece of paper and scoff at the idea that having their
               | name written onto this paper is worth any money, even if
               | someone else paid money to put their name on the ledger,
               | but doing the exact same thing with cryptocurrencies
               | fools people because the fake spot price and fake market
               | cap is broadcast across the internet as if it were real,
               | obscuring the fact that each of these coins is just the
               | digital version of someone's personal notebook.
        
               | andruby wrote:
               | The described foobar coin was illiquid and couldn't be
               | sold. But that's not true for BTC, ETH, and even a lot of
               | the shitcoins that had some decent volume om multiple
               | exchanges.
               | 
               | So in that sense, it _was_ wealth for the holders.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | There are a lot of people willing to lend you money on
               | the back of less-liquid-than-cash assets, though.
               | 
               | It may not be "real wealth" but it certainly is spending
               | power and psychological cushion, which means different
               | spending choices, which means inflationary pressure.
               | 
               | I had a lot of coworkers who listed crypto holdings on
               | their mortgage application in the past few years. They
               | wouldn't have been bidding as high if the perceived value
               | of those wasn't there.
        
             | bluecalm wrote:
             | The "market cap" for crypto is just an illusion. There
             | never was enough liquidity. The money was lost the moment
             | you exchanged it to crypto. Some of it is in hands of other
             | people. Some of it was spent to keep the show going
             | (mining, employees for all the crypto businesses etc.).
             | 
             | You and every individual investor could have cashed out but
             | that is as saying that Madoff customers could have cashed
             | out. It's just an illusion. Most of the money disappeared
             | once you deposited and Madoff, SBF, or some other scammer
             | spent it on a new boat or house on an island.
        
             | Aperocky wrote:
             | He was talking about money and you wealth.
             | 
             | I trust money more than wealth. Unsold stock should not be
             | quantified until the moment it is sold.
             | 
             | It's getting tiring to hear about "so and so billionaire
             | lost X billion". No, they didn't lose anything that they
             | didn't have to begin with. Having more stock than the trade
             | volume of that stock means all of that "wealth" is mostly
             | theoretical.
        
               | monkmartinez wrote:
               | I totally agree... crazy times in the past few years. I
               | have heard that some people were able to borrow against
               | their "wealth" (stock holdings, crypto holdings, vested
               | ownership shares) for homes, cars, boats and more since
               | Covid. If their "wealth" suddenly evaporates in the form
               | of losses, they find themselves on the wrong side of the
               | trade. Super duper risky and the appetite for these
               | "products" was immense from what I understand.
        
               | chadash wrote:
               | He was talking about money, but I think meant wealth
               | based on the context of his response to the OP. They are
               | almost interchangeable, but not in this context.
               | 
               | > Unsold stock should not be quantified until the moment
               | it is sold.
               | 
               | I don't know Elon Musk's finances, but I imagine that
               | he's got a bunch of stock, (let's say) an amount of cash
               | in the tens or even hundreds of millions and debts well
               | above the amount of cash he has on hand. If you don't
               | count unsold stock, then Elon Musk is poorer than most
               | college students.
               | 
               | I agree the numbers are misleading (e.g. Bill Gates money
               | is very diversified and he has already paid many of the
               | capital gains on microsoft stock sales, so comparing his
               | wealth to Elon Musk's with a single number is quite
               | misleading). But you have to count unsold stock for
               | _something_.
        
               | twblalock wrote:
               | If you didn't count the "theoretical" wealth you wouldn't
               | call them billionaires in the first place.
               | 
               | That "theoretical" wealth clearly has a massive impact on
               | the real world, so it's silly to pretend it does not
               | exist. For example, Elon didn't buy Twitter with a giant
               | bag of gold coins -- he borrowed against his wealth,
               | which is mostly in stock.
        
               | Aperocky wrote:
               | And his "wealth" shrunk far more than what he had to
               | liquidate and pay twitter for.
               | 
               | Because no sane organization will lend out real cash over
               | the same amount of collateral TSLA stock, and leveraged
               | lending opens TSLA to extremely high risk as value
               | dropping would means Musk will be forced to sell to
               | cover/and or stake more TSLA. This is exactly how FTX
               | failed - they counted their own token as their "asset".
               | Spoiler: it didn't work.
               | 
               | Does this wealth have a high impact on the world? Of
               | course it does. But does it has the same impact as same
               | volume of cash? Absolutely not.
        
               | three_seagrass wrote:
               | Also Zuck lost $100,000,000,000 in wealth when Facebook
               | tanked. Counting beans in hand is not how wealth is
               | calculated.
        
               | hedora wrote:
               | Many people have a net worth greater than the number of
               | circulating dollars. Also, dollars are not risk-free.
               | They target a few percent annual loss, after all!
        
             | ddbb33 wrote:
             | > I had a net worth of 64k No you didn't. You had a
             | potential net worth of 64k, but you didn't take advantage.
             | You can't just compare to peak, your wealth loss/gain comes
             | from comparing to the price you bought it.
        
               | 0xCMP wrote:
               | How else would you understand wealth? Are people who have
               | loans against massive stock portfolios but relatively
               | little cash (spent on houses, cars, trips, etc)... poor?
               | Obviously not.
               | 
               | OP was worth at least 64k at some point and now is worth
               | at least 16k. The value and total amount of wealth (in US
               | Dollars) has gone down.
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | What's a potential net worth? "Net worth" is already "how
               | much money would you have if you sold all your assets and
               | settled all your debts". Since for most people most of
               | their wealth is in assets, it's totally normal for net
               | worth to swing up and down as the market value of
               | household goods/land/buildings/companies/bitcoins
               | changes.
        
               | jakelazaroff wrote:
               | The catch is that even if your net worth is a certain
               | amount on paper, you can't necessarily realize that as
               | cash.
               | 
               | Take Elon Musk, for example. A lot of his wealth is in
               | Tesla stock. But he can't sell that stock without _also_
               | affecting its price. If he decided to sell all of it
               | tomorrow, the price would plummet and he would only
               | receive a fraction of what it 's worth today.
               | 
               | This is what a lot of these companies are doing. I can
               | create 100 tokens and sell you one for $1. In theory, my
               | "net worth" is now $99, since I have 99 tokens that are
               | worth $1 each. In reality, if I tried to sell all 99 of
               | them, I'd quickly find that people are actually not
               | willing to buy all of them for that amount.
        
             | zapdrive wrote:
             | > The coin has no intrinsic value
             | 
             | This is pretty debatable. Bitcoin does have some intrinsic
             | value as a medium of exchange and store of value.
        
               | blowski wrote:
               | What can you do with the bits that make up your Bitcoin,
               | other than trade them for something else?
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | You can prove you actually own how much you want to prove
               | you actually own, without leaking any other information
               | on your identity or current wealth. You can sign
               | documents. You can mount complex escrow processes with
               | it. You can send it worldwide to anybody without even
               | knowing where they live (phone numbers fail), or what
               | their bank is (IBANs fail) or what their email is (gift
               | cards fail) or whether they are allowed by someone else
               | to receive money (paypal fails). You can pool it with
               | friends and set up conditions for safe withdrawal reliant
               | on multiple people agreeing at the same time. And you can
               | receive money from anyone, anywhere around the world,
               | without anyone else's permission.
        
               | blowski wrote:
               | So if you send it to someone, what can they do with it?
        
               | jboy55 wrote:
               | Yes, but how many coins fulfill those basic requirements?
               | Why is btc special? Why would any of these coins be worth
               | anything besides some fee to convert-to from fiat and
               | convert-from to fiat?
        
               | none_to_remain wrote:
               | You can pay Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) to embed messages,
               | typically transaction messages, in the global Bitcoin
               | blockchain.
               | 
               | I was hoping years back that all of this would have taken
               | off for payments rather than silliness. I was wondering
               | if we'd see a (low) Bitcoin value determined by the need
               | to pay BTC transaction fees and those fees being
               | effectively locked up until the next block comes
        
               | clavalle wrote:
               | With all of the options these days, I'd wonder about the
               | characterization of 'intrensic'.
        
               | chadash wrote:
               | I would say that bitcoin has extrinsic value. The value
               | it has is because people agree it has value. Imagine I
               | started a blockchain using the exact same code as bitcoin
               | and called it Bitcoin9890812894. It would have the same
               | functionality as bitcoin but a value of $0 since
               | virtually no one else would agree that it has any value.
               | 
               | On the opposite end, a can of Cambell's soup has
               | intrinsic value, because it's worth something to someone
               | regardless of what anyone else thinks. The can of soup
               | that Andy Warhol as the basic for his famous paintings
               | has a mixture of both types of value (surely someone will
               | pay significantly more for _that_ can over any other
               | identical can).
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | > The value it has is because people agree it has value.
               | Imagine I started a blockchain using the exact same code
               | as bitcoin and called it Bitcoin9890812894. It would have
               | the same functionality as bitcoin but a value of $0 since
               | virtually no one else would agree that it has any value.
               | 
               | That doesn't seem like a contradiction at all, right? If
               | your fork somehow became well known and replaced the
               | original, then yeah, your fork would have some intrinsic
               | value as a medium of exchange and a store of value.
        
               | jboy55 wrote:
               | > If your fork somehow became well known and replaced the
               | original, then yeah, your fork would have some intrinsic
               | value as a medium of exchange and a store of value.
               | 
               | Intrinsic value is a value outside of perceived value. A
               | can of soup is calories, which we need to survive, as
               | long as it is edible, it will always be worth something
               | to a human. Farm land has intrinsic value because it can
               | produce food. Diesel has intrinsic value because farmers
               | need this to produce food. Bitcoin9890812895, my fork of
               | Bitcoin9890812894 has no intrinsic value to anyone.
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | > Intrinsic value is a value outside of perceived value.
               | 
               | Yes, and we're not talking about perceived value. We're
               | talking about intrinsic value from a peer-to-peer network
               | that's used by many people.
        
               | pirate787 wrote:
               | I'll debate that- the intrinsic value from exchange is
               | less than the cost to pay the miners to run the network,
               | therefore a negative net present value -- bitcoin is not
               | a store of value, but fundamentally destroys value and
               | relies on greater fools to buy for any price increase.
        
               | bmacho wrote:
               | About the amount of work to make a toy banking system. I
               | never tried, but there are some download and next next
               | finish coin generators, right? So the bitcoin system is
               | worth about a buck or so. (.. if I want to be _very_
               | generous, we can add the value of the bitcoin brand, and
               | that el salvador accepts it, some apps already can handle
               | it, but really that 's it. It's still negligible.)
        
             | johnvanommen wrote:
             | Agree 100%
             | 
             | What's happening is not great for crypto investors, but
             | it's beneficial for people who want inflation to go down
             | (nearly all of us.)
        
               | IanDrake wrote:
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | NortySpock wrote:
           | Crypto tokens are in one pocket and US Dollars are in someone
           | else's pocket.
           | 
           | Which one retains value in a market crash? My money is on US
           | Dollars, but you are free to disagree with me.
        
           | verelo wrote:
           | Isn't that generally the case?
        
           | bmacho wrote:
           | Actually the wealth is gone. Not because bitcoin was a ponzi
           | scheme (that doesn't destroy wealth or money, that indeed
           | just redistributes it) but because a common way to get
           | bitcoin or other cryptocoins is to destroy equivalent amount
           | of wealth, burn gas, energy, make ASIC silicone to mine, etc.
           | What a madness, really.
        
             | everybodyknows wrote:
             | This is not wrong, physical wealth was indeed destroyed to
             | make tokens of negligible* value to humans, but the meaning
             | of OP's "wealth" is claims on real goods or services -- as
             | in the houses bought by insiders a few weeks ago.
             | Destroying the remainder of such claims is a real benefit
             | to the world economy, reducing inflation of all legit
             | currencies.
             | 
             | *negligible not zero, because some tiny slice of crypto
             | transactions actually are done by useful workers in order
             | to shield wages from kleptocratic regimes.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | That's incorrect. When asset prices fall, wealth is indeed
           | gone. It's not transferred to someone else, it just vanishes.
           | 
           | It's true no matter if you're talking about falling stocks or
           | falling crypto.
        
             | alenrozac wrote:
             | While technically correct, I will point out that during
             | "the crash" many with access to capital are able to secure
             | a net long position either by way of savings or via real
             | options -- LLC is an example of a real option where the
             | capitalist only loses the investment value making the
             | financial leverage an attractive and useful tool.
             | 
             | People losing jobs and thinking about their next steps are
             | usually too late with not enough skin in the game to jump
             | on the decade-long bandwagon. That's the "wealth" some of
             | the commenters here seem to be pointing to. Essentially,
             | inequality.
        
             | loceng wrote:
             | E.g. The last people to buy who haven't sold are left
             | holding the bag.
        
             | shafyy wrote:
             | Not sure what you mean. If I buy some cryptocurrency coin
             | for $10 somebody received $10 from me. If now the value of
             | the crypto goes $0, I have lost $10 but the who I gave $10
             | to still has that money. It has not magically disappeared.
             | Or do you mean something else?
        
               | johnvanommen wrote:
               | > If I buy some cryptocurrency coin for $10 somebody
               | received $10 from me. If now the value of the crypto goes
               | $0, I have lost $10 but the who I gave $10 to still has
               | that money
               | 
               | Here's an example of how this works:
               | 
               | FTX "minted" their own cryptocurrency. They minted
               | billions of dollars of it.
               | 
               | When people purchased _a tiny fraction of it_ , that
               | established a price for one coin.
               | 
               | Once that happened, FTX could say _" we're worth billions
               | of dollars."_
               | 
               | But keep in mind:
               | 
               | * the cryptocurrency was created out of thin air
               | 
               | * the value of the crypto crashed by over 90% in the past
               | month
               | 
               | On top of all that, there was a "multiplier effect" when
               | the "assets" were used as collateral on loans to
               | counterparties.
               | 
               | The net effect is that the "assets" were worth billions
               | at some point, but that value has evaporated. And loans
               | were made on those "assets" which may have multiplied the
               | actual impact several fold.
               | 
               | It's a banal comparison, but this is a lot like Beanie
               | Babies in the 1990s. At one point the market was worth
               | millions of dollars, and then it evaporated overnight.
               | 
               | That's deflationary, and if there's one thing the world
               | needs right now, it's deflation.
        
               | damagednoob wrote:
               | Hasn't total wealth gone down by $10 in your scenario?
        
               | archontes wrote:
               | It's more like we have discovered that our estimation
               | that $20 of wealth existed was incorrect, and only $10
               | existed. Someone speculated incorrectly.
               | 
               | It's like a gold mine being revealed as barren. Whether
               | you say wealth was destroyed or wasn't there to begin
               | with is... distinction without a difference.
        
               | chadash wrote:
               | Yes, $10 has "magically" disappeared. Consider this case.
               | I buy a used car from you for $10000. You now have
               | $10,000 and I have a car worth $10,000 (let's assume that
               | i got a fair price and would be able to resell it for
               | that amount too).
               | 
               | A day later the Russian army hits my car with a mortar.
               | You have $10,000. I have some scrap metal. Rather than
               | $20,000 worth of stuff, there's now $10,000 (plus some
               | scrap metal) total.
        
               | skeeter2020 wrote:
               | You're changing value stores in this scenario, which
               | mitigates the loss but doesn't eliminate it. WHat makes
               | you think that $10 accurately represents some set of
               | physical goods for which it can be exchanged? What about
               | when you start exchanging like-for-like at different
               | agreed rates? If we equate wealth to money, and money is
               | largely based on shared faith and acceptance, then when
               | that agreement shifts wealth most certainly is created
               | and disappears out of and into thin air.
        
               | wppick wrote:
               | When you buy $10 of crypto you are passing that $10 to
               | another person, so the amount of money is unchanged. You
               | receive a promise for $10 for some point in the future
               | essentially. If that goes up, you now have a promise for
               | $12, for example. If there is $1 trillion in crypto that
               | suddenly goes up to $2 trillion then an extra trillion in
               | promises were created that would put extra pressure on
               | the existing amount of dollars in existence if they were
               | all redeemed at once (inflation). If the money supply
               | remains unchanged and crypto prices change, then it can
               | increase/decrease the demand for dollars.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | If you buy _one_ coin for $10 crypto considers that the
               | value of _all_ of the millions of coins.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wash_trade
               | 
               | Yes, the $10 exists, but that $10 trade may have inflated
               | the value ("market cap") of the coin by billions.
        
               | johnvanommen wrote:
               | Exactly. That's the fundamental reason that FTX is just
               | the tip of the iceberg.
        
               | archontes wrote:
               | This is just a demonstration that this is a naive way of
               | estimating value.
        
               | dougmwne wrote:
               | But this is exactly how all assets are priced and that
               | price signal is good enough to take loans out against the
               | asset collateral and create even more money supply.
        
               | kshacker wrote:
               | Gosh. Is this one of those tiktok quizzes?
               | 
               | At start you had 10 bucks and he had 10 bucks worth of
               | crypto for total assets of 20
               | 
               | Now you have crypto with value of 0 and he has 10 bucks
               | for total assets of 10
               | 
               | Overall 10 bucks is gone and yes there are winners and
               | losers
               | 
               | Edit: TikTok quiz abbreviated: you buy for 50, sell for
               | 60, buy again for 80, sell for 90. How much did you win /
               | lose? ... the confusion for some people being created
               | since they sold at 60 to buy back at 80
        
             | ttoinou wrote:
             | Both are true, it depends on the value those services
             | provided and crypto provide now
        
             | y04nn wrote:
             | I think you highlight the problem with crypto speculation,
             | it does not produce any revenue, so the price appreciation
             | is only governed by new speculators bet that a greater fool
             | will buy it. When you trade there must be a seller and
             | buyer, the value of the untraded part is only a potential
             | value and not real value, as soon as you put it for sale,
             | there will be more supply than demand and the price
             | plummet, as it happened with FTT. The total supply may have
             | been valued at billions of dollars even thought only few
             | millions have been bought, so the collapse just transfered
             | the wealth to the ones who sold above the real money that
             | was put into it. I think it is a zero sum game as there is
             | no revenue, only speculation.
        
         | rightbyte wrote:
         | The market value of Super Mario 3 cartridges and similar
         | collector items surely takes a hit from the ponzis coming down?
        
         | notUrsMine wrote:
        
       | vishnugupta wrote:
       | This is when I get to say "I told you so". Excerpt from my 9
       | month old comment [1]
       | 
       | A whole bunch of these startups have sprung up; which take up
       | real money (USDT or even USD, INR etc.,) promising very
       | attractive guaranteed returns without locking up customers' fund.
       | Look at these[1] for examples. Anyone who knows anything about
       | banking in the traditional world knows how ridiculous it is. And
       | indeed some of these are beginning to unravel[2]. In Anchor's
       | case there are way more lenders than borrowers so Anchor is
       | resorting to pay those high yields from their reserves. It's
       | cutting close to being a Ponzi scheme at the moment. In a
       | traditional banking world businesses take a loan either to cover
       | for a short-term cashflow crunch (example an invoice that's
       | delayed by their client) or for longer term investment. That
       | money usually goes into economic activities which are expected
       | (hoped?) to bear fruit to repay the loan. In the crypto world
       | however such loans are taken only to be put back into the crypto
       | world; to be swapped into some hot new coin to be staked and what
       | not. The music has got to stop at some point.
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30335625
        
         | tromp wrote:
         | > real money (USDT
         | 
         | Not really...
        
         | hanniabu wrote:
         | You're still wrong. The issue here isn't crypto, it's
         | centralized entities which act similar to banks.
         | 
         | It also failed because user money was stolen and mismanaged by
         | hugely incompetent 20 year olds, not because it was invested in
         | crypto.
         | 
         | It's like someone saying the whole stock market is a scam
         | because of Bernie Madoff.
        
           | twblalock wrote:
           | > It also failed because user money was stolen and mismanaged
           | by hugely incompetent 20 year olds, not because it was
           | invested in crypto.
           | 
           | Ah, but you repeat yourself! Almost every actor in crypto is
           | an incompetent 20-something, or an intentionally criminal
           | 20-something.
           | 
           | Exchanges like Coinbase might be the "good guys" but when the
           | assets they let you exchange are inherently worthless magic
           | beans and many of them are intentional scams, it's hard to
           | justify the stock market analogy.
        
           | TremendousJudge wrote:
           | I'd say the difference with the stock market is that that the
           | bottom of it is composed of companies that produce and sell
           | actual, tangible products: cars, planes, oil, computer
           | software, construction materials, etc. All financial
           | instruments (legitimate or not) are built on top of this. You
           | buy into some index fund under the assumption that, on some
           | level, you're putting money into the production of goods and
           | services.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, the "crypto market" deals only in hype all the way
           | down. There are no goods and services produced (unless you
           | count "hype"), only dollars going in one end and coming out
           | the other. If I put my dollars in some "crypto investment",
           | it's only so that some early adopter with 50000 btc can get
           | some dollars out. The rest is misdirection.
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | I can't understand the mentality of anyone who buys
         | crypto...and stores it in a centralized exchange.
         | 
         | What's the point of holding USDT or USDC if you're going to
         | keep it in a quasi-bank? Isn't the whole point of crypto NOT to
         | trust governments and centralized authorities?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | chinabot wrote:
           | Totally agree
           | 
           | How do you even know the exchange spent the money on crypto
           | if you dont see the keys, you may have just handed over $$
           | for a positive transaction on a virtual spreadsheet
        
           | timmytokyo wrote:
           | I would never do it but I understand why people do. They're
           | speculators and daytraders. And it's extremely inconvenient
           | (and expensive) to move money out of wallets and into
           | exchanges and back in order to make a trade. So people take
           | short-cuts and just leave their money in the exchange
           | accounts.
           | 
           | The problem with crypto evangelists is that they keep
           | forgetting it's humans who use it.
        
             | spaceman_2020 wrote:
             | The funny part is that the highest risk, most speculative
             | trading strategies and instruments are available only on-
             | chain (meme coins, high APR token farms, even decentralized
             | margin trading platforms).
             | 
             | These people took on risk, but not enough to warrant being
             | on-chain, and in the process, lost it all. Weird place to
             | be in - risky enough to lose it all, not risky enough to be
             | completely speculative. Really in no man's land.
        
           | notJim wrote:
           | The point of crypto for the vast majority of people is to not
           | be the one left holding the bag. It's just a ponzi scheme
           | that's open for anyone to participate in.
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | > Isn't the whole point of crypto NOT to trust governments
           | and centralized authorities?
           | 
           | Perhaps originally, but now it is simply a bunch of get-rich-
           | quick schemes, or maybe more accurately wallstreetbets-style
           | gambling. I.e. even if people know it's going to all go to
           | shit, try to play the game long enough and get out before
           | someone pulls out the Jenga piece below you.
        
             | spaceman_2020 wrote:
             | Really sad how crypto devolved into a bunch of "wagmi"
             | nonsense. It was originally meant to be a more serious
             | counterweight to the excess of central bank monetary
             | policies. Now it's just grifters and scammers.
             | 
             | Oh well.
        
               | oblio wrote:
               | Idealistic solutions are vulnerable to this.
               | 
               | Decentralized solutions are vulnerable to this.
               | 
               | Idealistic decentralized solutions...
        
               | spaceman_2020 wrote:
               | What's ironic is that the meltdown of crypto and crypto
               | culture came right when central bank excesses are at the
               | peak - at least for the vast majority of people alive.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | > What's ironic is that the meltdown of crypto and crypto
               | culture came right when central bank excesses are at the
               | peak - at least for the vast majority of people alive.
               | 
               | I don't understand. Central banks are _finally_ raising
               | rates after 2 decades of ultra-low rates. If anything,
               | central bank excesses are well below their peak now.
        
       | chitowneats wrote:
       | > What we're watching: Any sign that the carnage in crypto land
       | makes the jump to the real world of Wall Street and actual
       | economic activity.
       | 
       | > actual economic activity
       | 
       | Nice subtle burn at the end of the article.
        
         | zhdc1 wrote:
         | There are some legitimate use cases for decentralized ledgers
         | and other "crypto-like" tech.
         | 
         | As far as I'm aware, none of those involve anything that looks
         | remotely like financial speculation.
        
           | chitowneats wrote:
           | Name them please. This technology has had very smart and very
           | financially motivated people trying to apply it for more than
           | a decade.
        
             | psychlops wrote:
             | Money not controlled by a central entity. I don't think
             | it's more complex than that. The closer the idea gets to
             | centralization, the more scams erupt.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | drkstr wrote:
             | I setup a double entry bookkeeping solution for my LLC that
             | uses Amazon QLDB as a block chain ledger. Not sure if this
             | really counts, but it seemed like a good use case for the
             | tech. I used amazon-qldb-double-entry-sample-java as a
             | starting point if anyone is curious.
        
             | unintendedcons wrote:
             | Distributed domain name services.
             | 
             | ENS is the only good example, standing naturally next to
             | many imitators and scams.
        
               | polygamous_bat wrote:
               | You mean the service that had to beg people online far
               | and wide to change their domain names from .link to .limo
               | because the founder was in jail for aiding North Korea in
               | money laundering? Quite the shining beacon of
               | decentralization in a centralized land, yeah.
               | 
               | (If you ever wonder why people treat crypto as a joke,
               | think back to this moment.)
        
             | EthanHeilman wrote:
             | I know everyone will laugh at me for saying this but... we
             | are still in the early stages of cryptocurrency from a
             | technology development perspective.
             | 
             | I'm not aware of anyway to securely scale a decentralized
             | cryptocurrency without recursive proofs of correctness that
             | are fast to prove and fast to verify. Every year since 2016
             | I've seen major progress being made in this area but we
             | have far to go. We just barely got there in 2020. We could
             | probably build a scalable decentralized cryptocurrency in
             | 2020, maybe. Give it another 5-10 years of advancement like
             | we saw over the last 5 and you will have the ability to
             | build scalable decentralized cryptocurrencies. That doesn't
             | mean people will build them or that even if they do the
             | built systems won't suffer from serious drawbacks. It is a
             | long road ahead.
             | 
             | Now there are other problems to solve as well, but
             | everything i being gated right now by proofs of
             | correctness. We have a steam engine, we can put it on rails
             | and it can pull a small load. Unfortunately the expectation
             | has been set that we have train that can move millions of
             | people. The fact that we can't meet this expectation
             | doesn't mean that steam engines or engines in general are
             | bad.
        
               | psychlops wrote:
               | It's fascinating the amount of repetitive comments that
               | believe there should be some sort of time limit for a
               | technology to succeed. It's not clear to me where this
               | line of thinking comes from, the implication being that
               | if something doesn't work after x years, people should
               | just give up and go back to the old ways.
        
               | EthanHeilman wrote:
               | It's the confusion between:
               | 
               | It is unlikely that Charles Babbage is going to be able
               | to build his difference engine and even if he does it is
               | so complex and so prone to failure that it probably will
               | never be commercially viable.
               | 
               | vs.
               | 
               | It is unlikely that Charles Babbage is going to be able
               | to build his difference engine, thus proving computers
               | can't work and have no utility.
        
             | zhdc1 wrote:
             | GNU Thaler for central-bank regulated digital currencies.
        
               | chitowneats wrote:
               | GNU Taler is an interesting toy. I was hoping you had an
               | example that has actually been used in practice.
        
               | selectodude wrote:
               | A quick glance at the website makes it seem like PayPal
               | but using "tokens" instead of just leaving everything in
               | normal currency values.
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | if there was risk to the overall system then I think the
         | PowersThatBe(tm) would have much more interest in these setups
         | and not let them run so wild and free... off a cliff.
        
       | Dig1t wrote:
       | What I don't understand is why the New York Times is saying that
       | the guy who created and ran this scheme is a great guy. They
       | wrote an extremely flattering article about him and are even
       | hosting an event where he's a prestigious speaker.
       | 
       | He seems like a grifter and responsible for presiding over the
       | loss of a boatload of money for investors.
       | 
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankma...
       | 
       | https://www.nytimes.com/events/dealbook-summit#speakers
        
         | brindlejim wrote:
         | This seems like an ideologically driven comment, since the NYT
         | is reporting on the FTX bankruptcy in a v clear way:
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/business/ftx-bankruptcy.h...
        
           | Dig1t wrote:
           | I don't have any ideology driving my opinion, or at least I
           | don't think so, I read these pages by the NYT and was
           | surprised that he is being treated so nicely given what
           | happened and compared to similar situations historically.
           | 
           | I mean, in the speakers panel he is listed along side Mark
           | Zuckerberg, Volodymyr Zelensky, Janet Yellen, etc. Comparing
           | what he did with what he others in the speakers panel have
           | done I get some cognitive dissonance.
        
         | jcampbell1 wrote:
         | At this point the story is ongoing, entertaining and the
         | victims are mainly cryptobros. SBF is talking and helping sell
         | newspapers. While I am more empathetic to the victims, I
         | understand the NYTimes strategy here, especially considering he
         | is still talking and saying strange things that he is unaware
         | make him look like a sociopath.
         | 
         | Edit: His own psychiatrist is giving interviews with the times.
         | This story is so juicy.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/technology/ftx-sam-bankma...
        
         | themihai wrote:
         | What exactly did the investors invest in?
        
         | aksss wrote:
         | Wasn't he like the second largest democrat donor in the US this
         | year? $39.7 million to federal races. The soft-glove treatment
         | from the NYT is the _least_ he could expect. Maybe he knew what
         | was coming.
         | 
         | https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/sam-...
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | Both co-CEOs of FTX were large donors, one to each party.
           | Neat trick.
           | 
           | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/ftx-
           | crypt...
           | 
           | > Bankman-Fried, known as SBF, threw more money at Democrats
           | this cycle than anyone but George Soros, according to
           | OpenSecrets data. One of his top lieutenants, Ryan Salame,
           | has been bankrolling Republicans at almost the same pace as
           | Steve Schwarzman and Peter Thiel.
           | 
           | There's a good chart of how the company distributed things at
           | https://www.ft.com/content/428c7800-c72d-4c59-9940-4376fea6e.
           | ..
           | 
           | None of those politicians are gonna stay bought; no more
           | money is coming. There's no reason to think FTX can exert
           | further lobbying pressure; they're cooked.
        
           | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
           | Not sure why this was downvoted. Yes, he donated 2/3 to Dems
           | and 1/3 to Republicans. Assumption is for protection, and
           | regulatory direction.
           | 
           | He was only behind Soros in terms of total dollars to Dems.
           | 
           | His mother started a couple of Dem PACs just 13 days before
           | her son became CEO of FTX (imagine the coincidence!). Her
           | money, as far as it is traceable is also very significant.
           | 
           | ... This was I suppose part of his "effective altruism" (if
           | you can say that with a straight face). Instead of downvotes,
           | imagine the comments and rage if he had donated to Trump
           | instead.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | > Instead of downvotes, imagine the comments and rage if he
             | had donated to Trump instead.
             | 
             | That's what his co-CEO was for; he played the same role
             | with Republicans. $15M to a PAC he controlled (https://www.
             | fec.gov/data/receipts/?committee_id=C00809020&tw...) that
             | donated exclusively to Republican campaigns.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | brindlejim wrote:
         | They arranged those speakers long before the collapse. I doubt
         | he'll voluntarily set foot in the US until he figures out
         | whether or not he'll be immediately sent to jail.
        
         | graeme wrote:
         | The NYT often has an editorial bent which makes them write
         | flatly false articles. It's been rather odd, and a clear point
         | of divergence from other US newspapers.
         | 
         | For example, the NYT was very pro the Iraq USD argument
         | 
         | More recently, they kept going on about Clinton's emails, while
         | ignoring much larger security breaches from Trump's side
         | 
         | More recently than that, they kept saying coronavirus
         | reinfections would be impossible
         | 
         | They also have been producing an endless string of anti-tech
         | articles, but pro-crypto articles
         | 
         | In each case they had some clear editorial directive: "Bush
         | good", "Clinton emails bad", "Coronavirus immunity persists
         | (whether natural or vax)" "tech bad" "SBF good, crypto
         | exciting"
         | 
         | You might agree or disagree with these positions and so that
         | effects your reading of what I'm writing. But the point is they
         | _had_ an inflexible position on these issues. By contrast, a
         | paper like the FT or the WSJ or the Washington Post generally
         | tends _not_ to have a monolithic party line on the points
         | above, and would reports points on the issues above with
         | nuance, mentioning evidence in favour or against the positions
         | as it came out.
         | 
         | NYT does have some great articles but they're utterly
         | unreliable if you don't have enough background knowledge of an
         | issue to parse their party line.
        
           | m348e912 wrote:
           | I'm not going ask you to back up your assertions but that
           | really hasn't been my impression of NYT's editorial
           | positions.
        
             | pphysch wrote:
             | Edward Bernays, pioneer of PR, wrote about how half of
             | NYT's frontpage articles were literal propaganda. In 1928.
             | 
             | I think we would be naive to assume anything has improved
             | in the past century.
        
               | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
               | > I think we would be naive to assume anything has
               | improved in the past century.
               | 
               | What a naive assumption.
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | Okay, I'll bite. What has materially improved with
               | regards to corruption and transparency in journalism in
               | the past century?
        
             | graeme wrote:
             | Can you find any contemporary articles from the periods
             | discussed which show facts contradictory to those positions
             | in the NYT?
             | 
             | For example, an article in 2003 pre-invasion skeptical of
             | the WMD claim
             | 
             | An article in 2016 putting the email server in context or
             | comparing it to Trump's own level of scandal
             | 
             | An article this year critical of Sam Bankman Fried
             | 
             | A single article positive on tech in past few years since
             | their editorial position change?
             | 
             | An article from 2020 suggesting immunity might not be
             | permanent for most?
             | 
             | Matt Yglesias deleted his tweet, but he basically said the
             | NYT had a well known inside journalism policy of "never say
             | anything positive about big tech co's":
             | https://twitter.com/kelseytuoc/status/1588231892792328192
             | 
             | Edit: here's some background on the Iraq war stuff:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller#The_Iraq_War
             | 
             | And here's some context on the NYT and Clinton's emails.
             | It's a letter to the editor which cites a comprehensive
             | Columbia Journalism review critique of the NYT on that
             | point: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/opinion/letters/c
             | linton-e...
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | What if it wasn't a scam? What if he had actually innovated
         | some way to monetize crypto? Wouldn't that be impressive; the
         | next Gates or Jobs or the like? He certainly seemed aware of
         | how to press those buttons. Perhaps the NYTimes was as caught
         | up in crypto nonsense as anyone else; they saw it as
         | technological magic that they didn't understand, but identified
         | Bankman-Fried as a wizard who did understand that magic and had
         | harnessed it.
        
           | Dig1t wrote:
           | >Perhaps the NYTimes was as caught up in crypto nonsense as
           | anyone else
           | 
           | The article about his was written AFTER he lost all his
           | investors' money (a few days ago). The prestigious conference
           | where he is speaking is happening in 13 days from now.
           | 
           | Everyone knows this guy was a grifter, he created and ran an
           | exchange from the Bahamas, he didn't invent the iPhone of
           | crypto or something. I see 0 evidence of any Steve Jobs level
           | innovation.
        
             | hotpotamus wrote:
             | If everyone knows he was a grifter, then why did people
             | give him money?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | People put money in PonziCoin.
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16225383
               | 
               | Everyone knows he's a grifter _now_. Some probably
               | suspected earlier. Some of those probably invested
               | anyways on the idea that they could get out before the
               | collapse.
        
               | hnaccy wrote:
               | they're talking about now not before FTX collapsed
               | 
               | nobody is giving him money these days
        
           | themihai wrote:
           | The "investors" didn't invest in technological magic. They
           | just wanted to double their coins. Just ask any crypto
           | investor what was supposed to be the end product out of his
           | investment. Lotteries are a tax on stupidity and the whole
           | crypto mania is just a big lottery run by various
           | individuals!
        
         | TurkishPoptart wrote:
         | It was my understanding that Mr. Zelenskyy is busy defending
         | his country in a war. But somehow he has the time to fly to NYC
         | and brush shoulders with SBF, Larry Fink, and the treasury
         | secretary. It's almost like this event is a handy excuse for
         | these elites to brush shoulders, broker secret deals, and/or
         | exchange U.S. taxpayer money for institutional clout. Makes you
         | wonder why anyone these days remotely critical of the motives
         | of billionaries and global "changemakers" is branded a
         | conspiracy theorist.
        
           | kspacewalk2 wrote:
           | >But somehow he has the time to fly to NYC and brush
           | shoulders with SBF, Larry Fink, and the treasury secretary.
           | 
           | Zoom.
           | 
           | >Makes you wonder why anyone these days remotely critical of
           | the motives of billionaries and global "changemakers" is
           | branded a conspiracy theorist.
           | 
           | That's only true in their own minds.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | > It was my understanding that Mr. Zelenskyy is busy
           | defending his country in a war. But somehow he has the time
           | to fly to NYC and brush shoulders with SBF, Larry Fink, and
           | the treasury secretary.
           | 
           | Are you under the impression he's expected to be out there
           | literally driving a tank?
           | 
           | Flying around the world meeting with government officials and
           | political influencers is precisely what you'd expect someone
           | to do in this scenario. He'll have some staff and a phone on
           | him.
        
             | blaser-waffle wrote:
             | Arguably, that's Zelensky's main strength: he's a comedian
             | and did tours; he's a showman, a diplomat, a talker.
             | 
             | His primary role viz-a-viz the war is going around talking,
             | doing meetings, and drumming up support. Get him on a 12
             | city tour, except instead of cross-dressing and telling
             | jokes he's cutting deals for aid.
             | 
             | He's no general, and it's likely he doesn't know jack about
             | actually fighting a war. Nor does he need to: he's got
             | actual generals for that, ones who have been fighting w/
             | the Russians on and off since 2014, on top of real-time
             | intelligence and assistance from the 30 -- say it again,
             | THIRTY -- countries of NATO.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | Where do they say he's a great guy? The article is quite
         | factual, citing his words and actions and providing context
         | without injecting much in terms of emotion.
         | 
         | He also hasn't been charged with any crimes yet.
        
           | ViViDboarder wrote:
           | Yea, I don't find it flattering at all. In fact, it lays out
           | a bunch of pretty ugly details about the arrangement with
           | Alameda.
        
           | jcampbell1 wrote:
           | I don't see a real issue with the article, but it is worth
           | pointing out the article completely ignores the many victims
           | of SBF. If I were a victim of SBF, the article would be a bit
           | insulting.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | polygamous_bat wrote:
         | I know for example SEC has, in the past, used a crypto summit
         | in New York to serve a subpoena to another crypto grifter. [0]
         | I would not be surprised if there is government pressure on NYT
         | to pretend everything is fine to lure Sam Bankman-Fried out of
         | his safe haven in the Bahamas.
         | 
         | [0] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/crypto-conference-
         | jo...
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | SevenNation wrote:
       | > On Wednesday, the crisis touched a high-profile crypto lender
       | run by the billionaire twins Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler
       | Winklevoss, forcing them to halt withdrawals from their Gemini
       | Earn crypto lending program. ... The Gemini Earn program allowed
       | users to deposit their coins in exchange for regular interest
       | payments -- typically at generous rates that could be as high as
       | 8%.
       | 
       | The Gemini Earn page appears to redirect to this announcement:
       | 
       | > We are aware that Genesis Global Capital, LLC (Genesis) -- the
       | lending partner of the Earn program -- has paused withdrawals and
       | will not be able to meet customer redemptions within the service-
       | level agreement (SLA) of 5 business days. We are working with the
       | Genesis team to help customers redeem their funds from the Earn
       | program as quickly as possible. We will provide more information
       | in the coming days.
       | 
       | https://www.gemini.com/blog/an-important-message-regarding-g...
       | 
       | The language of this announcement is bizarre. Withdrawals are
       | "paused," not "halted" as reported. In other words, there's a
       | chance that Genesis will cough up the funds.
       | 
       | But the biggest red flag is that nothing is said about _new_
       | deposits. Apparently, Team Gemini is still taking them. This is,
       | unfortunately, par for the course with these schemes going all
       | the way back to Mt Got.  "Pause" withdrawals, but continue to
       | allow deposits. The language of the announcement makes this look
       | like a temporary blip that will soon be resolved. It's a tactic
       | with a long history and an almost boringly predictable outcome.
        
         | codehalo wrote:
         | Gemini hasn't pause withdrawals, Genesis has.
         | 
         | Did you read the article you linked to?
        
       | thrillgore wrote:
       | It continues to baffle me why anyone would want to deal with
       | Crypto if a failure like FTX causes the entire "decentralized"
       | ecosystem to collapse.
        
         | jpeterson wrote:
         | Exchanges and trading firms are not "Crypto". They're _human
         | institutions_ which happen to sit atop cryptocurrency
         | instruments. What we 're seeing play out in realtime is what
         | happens when unregulated human institutions come to possess
         | fantastical amounts of wealth -- in short, they go
         | pathological.
        
           | chitowneats wrote:
           | "Happen to sit atop" is so far from an accurate accounting of
           | the multi-headed hydra that is the crypto/defi space. Good
           | thing I'm not expecting much in the way of accurate
           | accounting.
        
           | ninepoints wrote:
           | It's almost as if the unregulated anti-establishment ethos of
           | crypto allowed this to happen, and allows it to keep
           | happening.
        
             | jpeterson wrote:
             | If crypto has an "ethos", it's decentralization and
             | departure from human institutions. The FTX fiasco is the
             | opposite of that.
        
               | arise wrote:
               | It's a two-faced ethos, praising decentralization and
               | thumbing its nose at banks while simultaneously
               | entrusting the bulk of its assets to entities that are
               | strictly worse than banks.
        
               | rurp wrote:
               | What percent of crypto activity happens on centralized
               | platforms. 90%? 95%? Whatever the precise number, it's
               | really high.
               | 
               | It's hard to argue that 95% of people in Scotland aren't
               | true Scots.
        
               | MacsHeadroom wrote:
               | Around 15%
        
           | zhdc1 wrote:
           | > They're human institutions
           | 
           | Anything that involves a person one both ends of a
           | transaction chain inherently has one or more 'human
           | institution' dependencies.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | Because it doesn't?
         | 
         | In fact, many crypto proponents are happy that these
         | centralized pseudo-banks get all flushed the out.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | _Claim_ to be happy. There 's a reason "this is good for
           | Bitcoin" is a meme.
        
             | k__ wrote:
             | And rightfully so.
             | 
             | Competing with centralized entities is hard.
        
             | throwup wrote:
             | If a person wants an industry to succeed, they will want
             | companies in the industry to behave honestly. And if a
             | company behaves dishonestly, they will want the dishonest
             | company to leave that industry. Why is that so hard to
             | believe?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Because shills exist, who claim something is good when
               | they know it's bad. Typically due to a vested interest,
               | like wanting the industry to succeed. "This is good for
               | Bitcoin" is a meme precisely because these people exist,
               | publicly trying to spin any negative into a positive.
               | 
               | Pretending collapses like FTX don't impact the
               | cryptocurrency space in negative ways is dishonest.
        
               | throwup wrote:
               | Companies like FTX collapsing do negatively affect the
               | space. But what's even worse is companies like FTX that
               | are irresponsible and haven't collapsed yet. What's a guy
               | to do?
               | 
               | I warned people last year not to use FTX. Now FTX is
               | gone. Please tell me what feelings I'm allowed to feel
               | now that they're finally gone.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Feel however you like. I will continue to feel that most
               | "this bad news is actually good for crypto" claims
               | involve quite a bit of at least motivated thinking and
               | pure shillery at worst.
        
         | warinukraine wrote:
         | Because it's easy to convince people of anything if you promise
         | that it'll get them rich quick.
        
         | Tenoke wrote:
         | >the entire "decentralized" ecosystem to collapse.
         | 
         | Because it doesn't? While all _centralized_ exchanges are
         | suffering from FTX 's collapse, decentralized ones like Uniswap
         | aren't facing any existential risks from it.
        
         | francisofascii wrote:
         | Banks fail, too. See Bear Sterns and Lehman brothers.
        
       | woeirua wrote:
       | Tick, tick, tick. The doomsday clock for Tether just moved closer
       | to midnight. When Tether finally depegs, all the exchanges will
       | go under (except maybe Coinbase and a few others that are tightly
       | regulated). Coinbase will probably still go bankrupt because the
       | crypto trading market is going to evaporate. The value of most
       | coins will go to zero. There will be a liquidity crisis the likes
       | of which we haven't seen since the 19th century.
        
         | prox wrote:
         | Who knew if you made an unregulated market full of sharks that
         | you would get this outcome? /s [0]
         | 
         | 0 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
        
         | lanewinfield wrote:
         | Thankfully we'll always have USDTea. https://usdtea.io
        
           | eternalban wrote:
           | Wasn't sure about the peg to a soft drink but the whitepaper
           | sold me.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | I think we all need a bit of stabilitea in the modern world.
           | Good thing it's _iced_ tea though; as we all know, proper tea
           | is theft.
        
         | BeFlatXIII wrote:
         | You have my hopes up. Let's hope your prediction is the lower
         | bound.
        
         | lizknope wrote:
         | People need to actually redeem the tethers for actual US
         | dollars in order to collapse the tether scam. I think all the
         | crypto exchange collapses and bankruptcy declarations will
         | actually help tether. All the money will be locked up for years
         | as the lawyers and accountants go through everything.
         | 
         | The Mt Gox "hack" was in 2014 and people have still not gotten
         | money back yet. That is 8 years and counting.
        
           | skybrian wrote:
           | Why do you think that bankruptcy courts wouldn't order the
           | Tether to be sold long before they figure out how to
           | reimburse the creditors?
        
             | Bootvis wrote:
             | What makes you think they would do so quickly?
             | 
             | Also, selling to quickly would at least temporarily depeg
             | Tether and cost the creditors money.
        
           | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
           | The redemption of tether (and other) can happen a long time
           | before any payments to creditors happen.
        
             | JeremyNT wrote:
             | But the only thing that matters so far is Tether's market
             | cap... which has barely moved through the latest shitshow.
             | 
             | Whoever buys tether (and who is it? really? I don't think
             | it's retail investors...) doesn't seem to be in a hurry to
             | convert it to cash. I'm assuming it's mostly or all related
             | to criminal activity, so they can't actually cash out?
        
         | baobabKoodaa wrote:
         | > The value of most coins will go to zero.
         | 
         | By absolute number, sure, but if you count "most" by weighting
         | them with trading volume, then no. Bitcoin and Ether will not
         | go to zero.
        
           | anonymousiam wrote:
           | Your comment reminded me of this joke:
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/3hqxgs/e.
           | ..
        
           | IncRnd wrote:
           | > By absolute number, sure, but if you count "most" by
           | weighting them with trading volume, then no.
           | 
           | That's crypto-speak for how to deny reality.
           | 
           | If the value of a USD dollar plummeted to $0.01, you don't
           | pull out your wallet and say, "I have 100 of them, so no the
           | value hasn't gone to almost nothing."
        
             | stickfigure wrote:
             | To use your analogy: Parent's point is that even if all the
             | quetzals and colones and cordobas and lempiras go to zero,
             | the USD will still have value.
        
               | baobabKoodaa wrote:
               | Exactly!
        
             | baobabKoodaa wrote:
             | That's not what I mean at all, but I can see how you might
             | arrive at that misunderstanding.
             | 
             | No, what I mean is that anyone can make new coins in 5
             | minutes to commemorate their favorite meme. There's a very
             | large number of these coins and almost all of them are
             | already valued at zero. So now you can go around saying
             | "most tokens value will drop to zero", which is factually
             | true because they already are at zero, and never were worth
             | much of anything, and nobody traded them. So what?
             | 
             | If you take a typical crypto hodler, most of the value in
             | their portfolio is in tokens like Bitcoin or Ether, and
             | very little value is in meowcatcoin or shibadibacoin.
             | Bitcoin and Ether will not go to zero.
        
               | llamataboot wrote:
               | I don't think they will go to zero
               | either...necessarily...but much much lower...I think you
               | underestimate the amount that ponzi liquidity inflated
               | everything...
        
               | baobabKoodaa wrote:
               | I never claimed that they couldn't go much lower. I was
               | arguing against this statement:
               | 
               | > The value of most coins will go to zero.
        
               | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
               | There is definitely an energy, art, nutritional,
               | collectable value to a steaming pile of shit.
               | 
               | I think the obvious issue is no one is going trade their
               | actual-money for it.
        
         | sroussey wrote:
         | I wonder: what will be the last straw that breaks confidence in
         | Tether?
        
           | polygamous_bat wrote:
           | Tether will keep pretending to be fine until every last real
           | dollar behind it has been drained. This is what is happening
           | right now, with Binance (and previously FTX) propping up the
           | crypto market with their purported bailouts and pretending
           | nothing is out of place. Then one morning, all of a sudden,
           | it will all come down with some really spectacular fireworks
           | to watch.
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | > Tether will keep pretending to be fine until every last
             | real dollar behind it has been drained.
             | 
             | That's how stablecoins work. There are two stable points: 1
             | and 0. When they break, they go all the way. As soon as the
             | price breaks, there's a rush to exit. We've seen this
             | happen a few times now.
             | 
             | Watch the Tether market cap decline here.[1] A billion
             | here, a billion there, and sooner or later you're talking
             | about real money.
             | 
             | [1] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | Something is happening in stablecoins.[1] Binance and OKX
           | exchanges "temporarily suspended" support for USDC and USDT
           | on the Solana blockchain. Unclear why.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/17/crypto-
           | exchanges...
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | But that's in the wrong direction? They're suspending
             | deposits, not withdraws.
        
               | Animats wrote:
               | Maybe they don't want to be holding those "stablecoins".
               | If you withdraw USDT or USDC, it's off their books and
               | they have no further risk. If you deposit it, and it's
               | credited as US dollars...
        
       | kerblang wrote:
       | Dunno if it made it thru HN yet but a Vox reporter aggregated up
       | her recent Twitter conversations with SBF, and it's kinda
       | damning: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-
       | frie...
        
         | metadat wrote:
         | Discussed yesterday:
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33630150
         | 
         | (336 points, 344 comments)
        
       | IanDrake wrote:
        
       | tacker2000 wrote:
       | For now i think only BTC and ETH will remain, and maybe some coin
       | that is REALLY backed by actual USDs.
       | 
       | This is the first big clearout of the shitcoins and fraudcoins.
       | 
       | Crypto will never really die in my opinion, its just going
       | through its infancy phase.
       | 
       | Real regulation is probably the thing that is the next on the
       | horizon, in order to build up trust that was lost (or never there
       | anyway).
       | 
       | Users must be sure that their coins can not all of a sudden be
       | frozen by some shady exchange operating out of the Bahamas or
       | wherever.
       | 
       | Crypto has to mature now.
        
         | NateEag wrote:
         | > Crypto has to mature now.
         | 
         | "Mature" ~= "lose the decentralized anti-regulation design that
         | was its entire reason for existing in the first place"
        
           | tacker2000 wrote:
           | Well, i get your point, but as we can see this hasnt panned
           | out in a good way. Maybe some hybrid model would work?
        
       | DebtDeflation wrote:
       | https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/1593102572151222273
       | 
       | Alameda received more Tether ($36.7B) than anyone else in
       | history. Where are they? Did they ever even exist?
        
       | thedangler wrote:
       | Not your wallet, Not your coins. Or Synthetic coins for most of
       | these exchanges.
        
         | ceejayoz wrote:
         | "Not your wallet, not your coins" is true, but kinda irrelevant
         | here.
         | 
         | The coins themselves are sometimes _worthless_ (like FTX 's
         | token), or can be frozen (Tether does this:
         | https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/10/tether-
         | freezes-...). It doesn't matter if you hold a collapsed coin in
         | your wallet or an exchange's; it's still not gonna do you any
         | good.
        
           | rufusroflpunch wrote:
           | It matters a bit, as it seemed that FTX had $1+ billion in
           | Bitcoin customer liabilities which have evaporated.
        
             | thedangler wrote:
             | Because they never bought the coins to begin with. It's
             | marked down in a ledger that this person has this many
             | coins. It only matters when someone wants to transfer coins
             | to another exchange or their own wallet. Then they have to
             | purchase the coins and send them.
        
               | hanniabu wrote:
               | > Because they never bought the coins to begin with.
               | 
               | Users bought it but the exchange didn't have it, which is
               | what the OP was saying. If you don't have the keys, you
               | don't really have the coins.
        
               | thedangler wrote:
               | Also interesting. Is this the same thing.
               | https://i.redd.it/qofb7x8zmj0a1.jpg
               | 
               | Citadel Securities has in their books securities sold,
               | not yet purchaed. $65 billion. How is this not the same
               | thing ? lol
        
               | pram wrote:
               | It's not the same because there are actual equities
               | involved in a short sale, Citadel is just borrowing them.
               | 
               | They could obviously get completely wrecked, but the
               | shares are real things.
        
               | rufusroflpunch wrote:
               | I would argue it's not necessarily a problem to have
               | liabilities for which you do not have assets on hand,
               | whether it's Bitcoin or some security. The difference
               | between these two situations is:
               | 
               | 1) FTX didn't even bother listing their customer
               | liabilities on their balance sheet, unlike Citadel.
               | 
               | 2) I would assume (hope) that Citadel isn't a completely
               | fraudulent company without the capital to make good on
               | those assets if delivery is demanded!
        
       | friend_and_foe wrote:
       | Somewhat off topic but I can't stand axios' format. It's framed
       | as "meat and potatoes" but what it actually is is someone telling
       | you want to think instead of reporting information while avoiding
       | actually including information. The goal seems to be to convince
       | while revealing as little detail as possible. It's awful.
        
       | fallingknife wrote:
       | I keep reading this but I haven't seen any signs of more major
       | drops that would be indicative of forced liquidations since the
       | initial FTX news. That's not to say it's necessarily false, but I
       | just haven't seen any evidence yet of a larger market contagion.
        
         | genghisjahn wrote:
         | This is perhaps a sign? "Gemini, BlockFi, Genesis announcing
         | new restrictions as FTX contagion spreads"
         | 
         | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/genesis-lending-unit-halts-w...
        
         | lukeqsee wrote:
         | For two: BlockFi and Gemini Earn both have stopped withdrawing.
         | This means a lot of people have a lot of crypto that they may
         | or may not ever get back.
         | 
         | I suspect it will take some time, but at the _ecosystem_ level,
         | contagion is already here. Time will tell if it spreads beyond
         | to the markets (but it feels inevitable at some level).
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | vgatherps wrote:
         | This article mostly focuses on smaller dominos. The serious
         | domino is Genesis which is only mentioned in passing.
         | 
         | Depending on the size of the hole Genesis might outside the
         | other non-ftx ones combined, and is structurally much more
         | important than them.
        
         | stephc_int13 wrote:
         | There is a major panic ongoing, but most of it is happening
         | behind closed doors.
         | 
         | Despite the appearance, this is not the story of a bunch of
         | degenerate kids playing with made-up money.
         | 
         | Real serious money is at stake, billions of it, people are
         | losing their shirts, or something else.
        
           | discreteevent wrote:
           | Is it really billions or is that some people bought some
           | worthless tokens at a low price then later a crowd valued
           | those tokens at a high price. Then when the tokens are
           | devalued the original people claim that they lost 'billions'.
           | Of course some people who bought at a middle price lost real
           | money but did that add up to billions?
        
             | rippercushions wrote:
             | Actual billions were invested, but the crypto market cap
             | reached $3 _trillion_ during the heady days of exactly one
             | year ago. That 's already shrunk to $800B and will keep
             | doing so for quite a while.
        
           | fallingknife wrote:
           | How does a financial panic happen behind closed doors when I
           | can see the prices of every token? How are people losing
           | their shirts if the asset prices aren't dropping? This isn't
           | a scenario with illiquid assets and murky pricing.
        
             | stephc_int13 wrote:
             | This is a Mexican standoff situation.
        
         | candiddevmike wrote:
         | You ever played Jenga? Each of these companies represents a
         | block.
        
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