[HN Gopher] What to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent [pdf]
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What to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent [pdf]
Author : WayToDoor
Score : 55 points
Date : 2022-11-15 19:34 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.ki4u.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.ki4u.com)
| recursivedoubts wrote:
| Controversial take, but I'm going to be pretty upset if there is
| a global thermonuclear war and we all die, I am not going to
| sugar coat it.
| HPMOR wrote:
| Ugh I literally love you right now.
| ge96 wrote:
| Yeah I just got a good job too
|
| Just sucks thinking about starting over, try to make RISC V out
| of sticks.
| nicoburns wrote:
| > I'm going to be pretty upset
|
| Not if you're dead, you won't be. IMO the much worse fate is
| remaining alive in an apocalyptic hellscape.
| wordyskeleton wrote:
| You'll be upset, I'll be frantically filling my bathtub and
| water mattress with potable water--we are not the same
| jnrk wrote:
| You have a water mattress..?
| kjkjadksj wrote:
| Great more water for the raiders when they bash down your
| door
| isbjorn16 wrote:
| I think you mean the delivery food
| LightG wrote:
| The Deliverator will not abide.
| rdtwo wrote:
| I'm going outside. I don't want to survive into the world
| after. Better to die in the initial flash then die slowly in
| the aftermath
| wordyskeleton wrote:
| Can't hear your negativity over the sound of my bathtub
| approaching 100% capacity.
| rdtwo wrote:
| lol to each their own. Hopefully you stashed away a
| couple years of food and lots of guns
| function_seven wrote:
| My entire financial planning model is founded on a lack of
| global thermonuclear war. Now I need to figure out what to
| short so I can take advantage of this black swan event?
|
| Eh, this is good for crypto.
| CamperBob2 wrote:
| _My entire financial planning model is founded on a lack of
| global thermonuclear war_
|
| That's funny, _my_ financial planning model is founded on the
| opposite premise.
| jmkni wrote:
| Bottle caps?
| bsagdiyev wrote:
| Let me just login in to the intern... oh right. Well the
| radios should still wor... no? Shit. I need to pay for clean
| water from my neighbor.
| aussiesnack wrote:
| I was subject to discussions at school about the UK gov's
| ludicrous 'Protect and Survive' novelty booklet in the 70s. Some
| years later The Young Ones episode 'Bomb' seemed like the most
| appropriate response.
|
| Having grown up pretty much assuming I'd be incinerated by nukes
| at some point (I frequently dreamed of mushroom clouds on the
| horizon as a child), this is all nothing new to me. I've lived
| longer than I ever expected.
| firecall wrote:
| Yep, me too!
|
| As an X-gen child of the 70s/80s I was at various points
| terrified of nuclear bombs!
|
| Watching Threads when I was way to young didn't help...
|
| There are times when I'd lay terrified in bed when I heard a
| jet engine over my house, and thought it might be a nuclear
| bomb!
|
| An article I read a while back suggested that X-Gen kids have a
| form of PTSD from the Cold War!
| JrProgrammer wrote:
| Website down, mirror:
| https://web.archive.org/web/20221006150022/http://www.ki4u.c...
| andirk wrote:
| My dad said they would do air raid drills in elementary school
| (50's, 60's) due to the fear of a nuclear attack. They were
| taught to get under their desks.
| noefingway wrote:
| I remember doing these. Air raid sirens would go off, we would
| dive under out desks, wait until teacher said we could get up.
| Sometimes we did drills to all march, in an orderly manner, out
| of the classroom into the basement of the classroom building,
| or to the locker rooms at the gym. IIRC during the Cuban
| missile crisis we got sent home early one or two days, but my
| memory is a bit fuzzy on that. This was in Bethesda, MD,
| adjacent to DC.
|
| I've lived near Camp David and Site R for 50+ years, so we
| always joked that if the missiles ever started flying, we'd be
| the first to know and go.
| yamtaddle wrote:
| Now it's active shooter drills from kindergarten on. :-/
|
| There was a brief, happy span of a couple decades without duck-
| n-cover _or_ shooter drills, though.
| unsupp0rted wrote:
| Apparently getting under their desks was on the off-chance
| their school is far enough away to avoid being incinerated but
| still close enough for a pressure wave to blow out all the
| glass in the windows and turn it into projectiles.
| michaelcampbell wrote:
| I went to school in the 70's and _we_ had no such drills, but
| being in tornado alley, plenty of those.
|
| That said, I suspect these drills were more for theatre, like
| most of the TSA is now - put up a big visible show that
| you're doing _something_.
|
| Reasonable people can disagree.
| pfdietz wrote:
| This came in handy when that meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk
| a few years ago. A teached remembered the training and had
| everyone hide under desks, and they were spared laceration
| from the blown-in windows.
| int_19h wrote:
| In Russia, this kind of training is not a long-gone relic -
| there's a class in school that's dedicated to survival in
| various situations, covering all kinds of stuff from
| emergency first aid to making shelter in the wilds. A
| subset of that is dealing with anthropogenic disasters, and
| a subset of _that_ is civil defense. If I remember
| correctly, we had two hours covering nukes alone - likely
| targets in the vicinity, what kind of damage to expect
| where, how to build fallout shelters, when to evacuate etc.
| So far as I know, this all is still taught in schools
| there.
| CamperBob2 wrote:
| Do the math. There's a damned good chance that you are, in
| fact, in the zone where duck-and-cover survival measures are
| effective.
| BaculumMeumEst wrote:
| i think its better not to spend time and energy coming up with
| ways to prolong your suffering in an unlikely scenario but that's
| just me. that's to say i don't have a plan, but rather it's much
| shorter and weighs on me less
| ravi-delia wrote:
| Eh people lived and died for generations doing awful
| subsistence farming and watching half their children die (if
| they didn't die in childbirth themselves). Not getting acute
| radiation poisoning and dying painfully over days in one of the
| worst ways possible for the low low cost of having a basement
| and keeping some water in it seems within the cards. I guess
| you could just kill yourself and your family immediately, which
| would also prevent a slow agonizing death from radiation
| poisoning, but I don't hate my basement enough to go out and
| buy a gun.
| stareatgoats wrote:
| The site is down so I can only speculate what it recommends.
| Whatever it is, I suspect it is not a list of suggestions for how
| to avoid nuclear disasters altogether. Because that is simply not
| in vogue. It seems we must all accept as something inevitable to
| have the specter of millions dead, if not billions, if not life
| as we know it, hanging over our heads for time eternal.
|
| Because we as humans are seemingly only endowed with creative and
| innovative thinking when it comes to advertising, crypto scams or
| new JS frameworks, etc. When it comes to accomplishing something
| as basic as survival we seem to revert thoughts and prayers, and
| amassing even more weapons. It's frankly a mystery.
| ravi-delia wrote:
| It takes literally 0 imagination to avoid nuclear disasters
| altogether. A handful of people in the entire world need not to
| do something extremely stupid. They can leave their special
| keys at home, overwrite the codes with baseball scores in their
| mind, and no nuclear apocalypse will happen. The fact that this
| has not happened is not due to a failure of imagination. That
| doesn't mean the reason is good, obviously, but doesn't the
| idea that we should be blaming a pdf seem a little silly to
| you?
|
| The sword of Damocles is indeed hanging over our heads. Morons
| hung it there, and morons stand around waiting to prevent
| anyone from taking it down. We should push towards
| denuclearization, and we shouldn't compromise. But also, we
| should have better public transportation. Doesn't mean that
| anyone mentioning seat belts is just a firm believer in the
| specter of car accidents. If you take the threat of these
| morons-in-charge and their nukes seriously (as I do), can't you
| see why someone might want to maximize their and their family's
| chances of survival? I'll note you haven't presented a solution
| any single person can work with either- perhaps it is a
| difficult problem.
|
| Edit: There's an argument to be made that having a fallout
| shelter would make you more complacent. But I'd expect the
| average person who is worried enough about nuclear war to dig a
| bunker is probably more worried with that bunker than the
| average person is without it. The opposing viewpoints are
| "nuclear war is potentially possible and very bad" and "nuclear
| war won't happen". There are probably people who believe in a
| MAD-style argument for the latter, but my bet is that most of
| them just don't think through how scared they should be. Things
| have been fine so far, after all. Nevermind all the warheads
| just sitting in silos. This silent majority is _not_ thinking
| about how to survive nuclear war. They, in their heart of
| hearts, do not think it is a concern.
| stareatgoats wrote:
| > you haven't presented a solution any single person can work
| with either- perhaps it is a difficult problem.
|
| Exactly; it's a tough problem. Much as I admire my own
| intellect [/s], I hardly think I can come up with a solution
| by myself, no. If we were an "army of millions" who were
| thinking hard about the problem then we would have sporting
| chance I think - but we are not that many (which, again, is
| frankly baffling).
|
| Other than that, for the record I don't believe this is a
| problem of morons vs intelligent people. Political leaders,
| leaders of the military, and the others that we might want to
| point fingers at in this context are probably highly
| intelligent. It's just that the road to hell is paved with
| good intentions.
|
| The initiative likely needs to come from people that are not
| already mired in the system.
| ravi-delia wrote:
| I absolutely agree, but doesn't that precisely undermine
| your point? There's nothing about trying to prevent nuclear
| apocalypse that isn't "in vogue", it's just widely seen as
| a hard problem. And if it's a hard problem, isn't there a
| place for looking at the far easier one of reading a few
| papers and noticing that a few steps taken in advance could
| make a big difference in survival odds (assuming you aren't
| one of the many people annihilated instantly and
| pointlessly in the initial blast).
|
| And yeah, I'd like to believe there's a good reason for
| nuclear proliferation, and today things are pretty locked
| in by game theory, but there was absolutely a decision made
| early on! During WWII Germany was nowhere near finishing a
| nuclear weapon, and the Soviet Union only worked it out
| with the help of a spy. Seems like there was at least a
| shot of no one developing nukes if the Manhattan project
| hadn't happened.
| mistermann wrote:
| > It takes literally 0 imagination to avoid nuclear disasters
| altogether. A handful of people in the entire world need not
| to do something extremely stupid. They can leave their
| special keys at home, overwrite the codes with baseball
| scores in their mind, and no nuclear apocalypse will happen.
| The fact that this has not happened is not due to a failure
| of imagination. That doesn't mean the reason is good,
| obviously, but doesn't the idea that we should be blaming a
| pdf seem a little silly to you?
|
| Have you a gameplan to cause this _possible_ series of
| actions to manifest in physical reality with zero chance of
| failure?
| ravi-delia wrote:
| Absolutely not! Is this because I have failed to imagine a
| world without a nuclear threat, or because the problem is
| very hard? Not the former! As proof see counterexample- I
| can imagine a nukeless world just fine.
| ptr wrote:
| Where in the world are nuclear disasters "in vogue"?
| stareatgoats wrote:
| Lists of suggestions on how to avoid them are not in vogue.
| simonh wrote:
| 1. Elect competent politicians
|
| 2. Pray
| Nathanael_M wrote:
| What a darn shame that no one but you has ever considered
| survival. I would love to hear your suggestions, but I suspect
| that you might not be one of those creative and innovative
| thinkers you speak so lowly of. It's a shame people with your
| unique perspective aren't also gifted with these gifts of
| creativity and innovation. Oh well. Perhaps you could foster
| these gifts by first learning to paint with acrylics instead of
| high-minded, low-effort generalizations.
| stareatgoats wrote:
| May I suggest you take your ad hominem elsewhere? This was
| uncalled for.
| HL33tibCe7 wrote:
| Your original comment in itself is already dripping with ad
| hominem.
| aussiesnack wrote:
| > Because that is simply not in vogue
|
| The hostile responses you've go this do rather demonstrate your
| point. Building peace in a world bristling with nukes held by
| independent sovereignties with limited information about each
| other and often incongruent self-defined 'interests', is indeed
| a hard problem. Hard problems require work and thought and
| research to try to solve. If conditions change to make the
| problem harder, more resources and work are required.
|
| That readers here find that requirement incomprehensible for
| this specific hard problem is exactly the point. Peacebuilding
| (as an activity, an actual diplomatic project, not a hope) has
| indeed fallen out of vogue and out of the collective political
| imagination. Little being permanent in international relations,
| it could yet return.
| tomjen3 wrote:
| Russia smashed a missile 10km into Poland, killing 2 and
| wounding some more.
|
| Poland is a NATO member, so that is the likely context of the
| submission.
| Markoff wrote:
| Russia also blown up ammo storage in Czechia killing two
| years ago, guess what happened... And mind that was
| intentional act far away from Russian or Ukrainian border,
| not some misguided missile right across border fence.
| chasd00 wrote:
| heh i think you mean two missiles. investigations still
| happening so who really knows at this point but not looking
| good.
| HL33tibCe7 wrote:
| What's your alternative? Everyone agreeing to sit round the
| campfire, hold hands and sing kumbaya? You can't possibly be
| this naive.
|
| There's something uniquely frustrating about seeing somebody
| like you, who has a completely naive and childlike worldview,
| assuming that YOU are just a genius and everyone else is an
| idiot.
| mistermann wrote:
| > There's something uniquely frustrating about seeing
| somebody like you, who has a completely naive and childlike
| worldview, assuming that YOU are just a genius and everyone
| else is an idiot.
|
| Also frustrating:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na%C3%AFve_realism_(psychology.
| ..
| stareatgoats wrote:
| I may be an idiot, but you seem confused: first you assume
| that I can not be this naive, then you conclude that I am?
| Let me assure you, I'm not that naive, but I don't presume to
| have the solution either. I agree that would have been
| better, but there you go. Maybe if we were more people than
| the vanishing few that I encounter, maybe then we would have
| something we could try.
|
| More weapons that are likely to start a third world war by
| mistake is not a satisfactory solution IMO.
| HL33tibCe7 wrote:
| I was expressing disbelief.
|
| As I suspected, you have no alternative.
| stareatgoats wrote:
| The alternative to millions upon millions of intelligent
| people strapping their blinders on every day and refusing
| to see where we are heading is that a tiny fraction of
| these get together and start thinking out solutions. The
| maybe we'll get somewhere. That's all.
| timoth3y wrote:
| Place your head firmly between your legs and kiss your ass
| goodbye.
| pelasaco wrote:
| it's assumed that everyone will be at home when a nuclear
| disaster happens, but it would probably happen on a weekday early
| in the morning, when kids are in the school, wife or husband is
| at work, and the chance that all of us get safe to the bunker is
| small.
| jamal-kumar wrote:
| I suppose this is of special interest now since Poland, a NATO
| member, got hit by what sounds like an errant missile from Russia
| recently. [1]
|
| Reading the first part, I think the best thing that could happen
| in the event some big red buttons get pushed is that if you're
| next to a military base you're probably going to be vaporized
| along with it if you can't evacuate. Trying to survive that kind
| of thing sounds way worse.
|
| Was nice knowing everyone!
|
| [1] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/15/russia-poland-
| missi...
| mzs wrote:
| Seems to be a 5V55K type motor and S-300 sized crater:
|
| https://twitter.com/JakeGodin/status/1592618577622093824
| jamal-kumar wrote:
| Yeah, they've been repurposing those particular surface-to-
| air missiles for land attacks since around July. [1]
|
| [1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-
| firing-s-30...
| teddyh wrote:
| I'd do something really interesting, so that the author of my
| world would be forced to focus on me and continue my life story.
| Because the only place where nuclear war is a realistic
| possibility is in a fictional setting.
| maximinus_thrax wrote:
| Interesting, but no thank you. I consider myself lucky to be
| living around one of the largest nuclear stockpiles on the
| planet. Huge target for the enemies. So, if nuclear attack is
| imminent, I would likely not even feel my body disintegrating.
| I'm more worried about the survivors.
| AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
| I'm with you. My plan for surviving the apocalypse is not to.
| jpm_sd wrote:
| Here's a modern version https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/lie-down-
| try-not-to-cry-cry-a...
|
| In all seriousness, in a true nuclear disaster the survivors will
| envy the dead.
| sfe22 wrote:
| Not most of the dead though, one certainly wouldn't envy the
| guy that died an hour ago after days of radiation poisoning or
| starvation.
| themeiguoren wrote:
| I find it almost satirical that a guide on an imminent nuclear
| disaster is a 13-page pdf of dense text. If the producers of this
| guide are serious about their mission, this needs to be condensed
| into a flowchart with short statements and plenty of pictures
| that can be absorbed quickly. More detailed info can be tacked on
| the end, but some bolded statements in the middle of a wall of
| words is not how you communicate in an emergency.
|
| An ICBM will take ~20-30 minutes from launch to hit the US. By
| the time you are notified, you will have 5-15 minutes to prepare.
| This goes down to minutes to seconds for dirty bombs/ground
| detonations or short range missiles (to which the US is not
| immune thanks to submarines).
| baybal2 wrote:
| chasd00 wrote:
| i skimmed through it, it only makes sense for population
| centers not targeted or attacked. If you're in a city that is a
| target the best thing to do IMO is setup an informational
| circuit breaker where, once flipped, you get the hell out of
| dodge and wait for more information.
| ankaAr wrote:
| I have a house in Patagonian mountains. You are invited to come
| and have a last barbacue.
| hulitu wrote:
| > What to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent [pdf]
|
| Thank to your leaders.
| [deleted]
| scarecrowbob wrote:
| This reminded me of the better documentary films I have seen, The
| Atomic Cafe (1982).
|
| It is a well-crafted film, with a neat-o formal technique of only
| using found footage/ audio to describe the history of US atomic-
| age propaganda.
|
| More interestingly to me, it offers a useful commentary about the
| contradictions between the use of media to present nuclear wars a
| survivable and possibly necessary event but simultaneously an
| existential threat that requires the total resources of the state
| to avoid. The ending of the film seems especially useful as
| footage of naive "duck and cover" drills is juxtaposed with
| (legitimately terrifying) images of actual bomb blasts.
|
| I think, in general, it recalled this bit: "Christopher Isherwood
| gave expression to this unreality of the American daily life,
| exemplified in the motel room: "American motels are unreal! /.../
| they are deliberately designed to be unreal. /.../ The Europeans
| hate us because we've retired to live inside our advertisements,
| like hermits going into caves to contemplate.""
| hotpotamus wrote:
| Dr Strangelove was obviously about the absurdity of trying to
| plan for nuclear war, but the ending credit scene of nuclear
| bombs exploding while playing "We'll Meet Again" by Vera Lynne
| sounds like it might have influenced "The Atomic Cafe".
|
| Interestingly, the detail in the linked document that made me
| think of a movie was the improvised lean-to shelter. One of the
| protagonists in the British film "When The Wind Blows" built
| one in his house while following a similar guide.
| dekhn wrote:
| Is that Duck and Cover? Yep. My dad grew up in Miami during the
| cuban missle crisis and he said they watched a lot of those
| videos.
| zwieback wrote:
| I remember Atomic Cafe, when it came out it was pretty popular
| in Germany, where I grew up. At the time we were assuming we'd
| be the first to go, being right between the two big atomic
| powers. Everyone I knew back then assumed there's really
| nothing you could do, though.
| Sakos wrote:
| Back then, it was considered acceptable to use tactical nukes
| to slow or prevent Russian military advancing on Europe.
| Crazy times.
| [deleted]
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(page generated 2022-11-15 23:01 UTC)