[HN Gopher] Solar panel waste may not be nearly as bad as we onc...
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       Solar panel waste may not be nearly as bad as we once thought
        
       Author : JSeymourATL
       Score  : 98 points
       Date   : 2022-11-13 16:48 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.fastcompany.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.fastcompany.com)
        
       | roughly wrote:
       | Interesting - assuming the panels last twice as long also drops
       | the per-watt price pretty dramatically, which changes the
       | economics on solar panels pretty favorably.
        
         | Freestyler_3 wrote:
         | Panels come with 20/25 year warranty that after that period
         | they have declined a maximum of 20% in performance.
        
       | howmayiannoyyou wrote:
       | Recycling solar panels is tough because glass fines are created,
       | often inseparable from items that adhere to them. Those fines
       | don't currently have secondary demand and they're a health and
       | possibly environmental hazard. The CAPEX for recycling panels is
       | high because size reduction and separation requires expensive
       | (and expensive to maintain) equipment. I expect companies like
       | American Battery Recycling, et. al., to tackle this waste stream
       | on as a natural adjunct to their battery recycling
       | operations/systems. I'm not as optimistic that the waste won't be
       | as bad as once thought because I envision the price of new panels
       | to continue to fall, while efficiency increases. Could be a
       | secondary market emerges for the old panels, but I'm skeptical.
        
         | VBprogrammer wrote:
         | I've seen at least half a dozen cases where off-grid people
         | tried to buy a container load of used solar panels which, for
         | one reason or another, in the end never appeared. I believe the
         | demand for used solar panels is higher than the supply.
        
         | recycledmatt wrote:
         | They can recover the aluminum fraction with an Eddy Current.
         | The panel becomes Adc or land fill
        
         | ummonk wrote:
         | Price falling, sure, but I don't see how efficiency rising
         | would lead to more solar panel waste down the road.
        
           | kragen wrote:
           | jevons paradox
        
         | Schroedingersat wrote:
         | Al, Si and trace amounts of silver have no health or
         | environmental hazard, and the silver is the valuable bit.
         | Please stop gas lighting based on obsolete technology that was
         | only briefly popular in one country.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | Inhaling solid $anything dust is a health and environment
           | hazard.
           | 
           | Si dust probably isn't asbestos bad, but wouldn't want to
           | breathe it in either.
        
             | recycledmatt wrote:
             | These will go into auto shredders (for the most part) which
             | have dust management plants
        
       | recycledmatt wrote:
       | If you're trying to recycle 100%, this is an expensive and hard
       | to handle stream. If you're cool pulling the aluminum and
       | Alternative Daily Cover / landfill the rest, it's not that bad
       | and the infrastructure can handle it / exists.
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | It's a story similar to nuclear power, where people found it
       | wasn't that hard to extend the life of nuclear reactors a lot
       | longer than originally planned.
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > where people found it wasn't that hard to extend the life of
         | nuclear reactors a lot longer than originally planned.
         | 
         | France is showing right at this moment just how bad an idea
         | that is. Over half their reactors are _still_ down, most
         | because of issues with cracks in pipes.
        
           | delecti wrote:
           | That's less an inherent problem with extending the reactors'
           | lifespans, and more a problem with all of the reactors being
           | old. They built a bunch of reactors, and then stopped, so now
           | they're all on the same maintenance schedule. If instead they
           | had kept building over time, then they'd have a bunch of new
           | ones, and advance warning to tackle problems those reactors
           | might face _eventually_.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Histogramme_des_%C3%A2ges.
           | ..
        
         | api wrote:
         | One should expect monstrous amounts of FUD about anything that
         | replaces fossil fuels.
        
           | googlryas wrote:
           | Honestly, at this point in our hyperpartisan world, I expect
           | monsterous FUD about pretty much anything. There was just a
           | small scale war in my city about a proposal to slightly
           | modify the way our library is funded. If that gets people
           | riled up, then one can only imagine what multi trillion
           | dollar industries can stir up.
        
             | lob_it wrote:
             | Its more of a generational divide with the hyperpartisan
             | gibberish. I always laughed when they said "voting for the
             | lessor of two brain-dead illiterates stuck in the 18th
             | century".
             | 
             | It looks like the indoctrinated offspring from that rabid
             | environment just make a 3rd and 4th party easier to
             | implement... To square up the 3 sides to every story and
             | the fourth to make it interesting (FORE is a cool number in
             | golf too).
             | 
             | A ho-nest days pay for a ho-nest days work is loaded with
             | innuendos :)
             | 
             | And regarding renewables, diversification is a beautiful
             | thing in the 1st world :)
        
             | thechao wrote:
             | That's probably just a yellow bike shed, though?
        
               | p1necone wrote:
               | Actually I think we should paint it green.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Near as I can tell, a lot of people are just mad.
               | 
               | Not about anything in particular, just mad.
               | 
               | So really it doesn't matter, they'll pick a fight over
               | anything.
        
               | chadcmulligan wrote:
               | As an older fairly conservative friend of mine said when
               | I was trying to talk him into some new tech thing - I
               | just don't want anything to change. Seems a lot of people
               | are like that, and just knee jerk to any change.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Yup. IMO, it's a sign of being overwhelmed.
               | 
               | When folks get older, a lot of things stop working as
               | well as they did, including old learned behaviors and
               | physical things too, so it happens more easily and more
               | often.
               | 
               | But this isn't just an old person thing right now.
        
               | prawn wrote:
               | I've long figured that a lot of political tensions stem
               | from the perceived pace of change: in technology, social
               | norms, etc. It must be hard going from feeling like the
               | master of your domain to frustrated that you don't know
               | how to watch streaming TV or might put your foot in it
               | saying something that was unremarkable 20 years ago
               | (e.g., joke books in the 80s were _full_ of stereotypes).
        
             | reilly3000 wrote:
             | Public Relations won. Advertising won. Weaponized
             | Infighting is winning.
             | 
             | Say the first thing that comes to mind when you think "Coca
             | Cola." Say it out loud, don't edit.
             | 
             | If you said something about nostalgia or polar bears you
             | would be like most humans around the globe for the past 50+
             | years. I submit that as my evidence that PR and Advertising
             | are remarkably potent.
             | 
             | If you really said something to the effect of "depraved
             | multinational corporation" you've eluded their attempts to
             | seer their brand onto your brain 50 times a day. You have
             | steel wit, perhaps your neurophysiology measures a few SD
             | from norms. You have an important role in the solution.
             | 
             | Advertising & PR ought to be illegal, especially with AI
             | driving it. I came from that space and love the creativity,
             | but fear it's power. Usually where advertising is illegal
             | it just means the state has a monopoly on marketing. It's
             | not an enforceable policy, and is a meaningful degradation
             | of liberty.
             | 
             | What I think would work is making it unprofitable. Revoke
             | the tax deduction for it. Then make some licensure and
             | oversight for influence operations (my new umbrella term).
             | Register professional services agreements and require
             | quarterly reports. Target ad exchanges like crypto, with a
             | set of standards and Treasury authority.
             | 
             | Frankly, online ad exchanges have been one of the highest
             | volume means of international money laundering and global
             | exchange, and Google et al skimming huge % cuts of 2-5
             | parts of the transaction. Not regulating it will allow a
             | loophole for continued fraudulent transactions at scale.
             | 
             | Parcels of human "mindshare" are auctioned off with every
             | advertising transaction. Your 5 seconds on YouTube can be
             | worth $5 to the right advertiser. Often that means the
             | highest profit, most coercive players win your attention
             | the most. On web publisher sites, the auction happens in
             | 100ms often in the client at the expense of performance.
             | Always. You can't fire off 700 requests and not impact
             | performance. It's for bids to a dozen ad networks and all
             | of their trackers and the winning ad's trackers and then
             | then do it again every 30 seconds and on scroll listeners,
             | for 6-12 ads plus a video player or two and an exit pop.
             | 
             | Is it just cool that human attention is auctioned off like
             | chattel slavery? Am I wrong to be scared of what
             | billionaires can and have been doing with free reign?
             | 
             | _Citizens United_ really did a number on democracy. Such an
             | ironic name, isn't it?
        
           | macspoofing wrote:
           | Solar does not replace fossil fuels.
        
             | PaulHoule wrote:
             | It replaces some of them but not all of them.
             | 
             | A cynical take on Amory Lovins' "Soft Energy Path" was that
             | it talked about wind and solar but really delivered gas
             | turbines fueled by methane because 1 that was the real
             | "least cost energy" and 2 it could easily fill the gaps in
             | intermittent renewables.
        
           | monero-xmr wrote:
           | On HN I find it precisely the opposite - if you point out
           | flaws with solar, electric cars, wind, self driving cars,
           | etc. you take a lot of downvotes
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | Extending from ajuc's spot-on answer, a lot of those
             | downvotes also come from how this works:
             | 
             | 1. Fossil fuel companies are desperate to prolong
             | profitability and avoid legal penalties. They fund
             | unqualified people (e.g. Stephen Milloy) to come up with
             | ways to claim the science isn't settled or to attack the
             | motives of environmentalists. "These people aren't as green
             | as they should be" is a popular approach since humans love
             | to roast hypocrites.
             | 
             | 2. Those people are basically constantly A/B testing random
             | brain-farts to see which ones get some traction.
             | 
             | 3. The ideas which work well early on start moving from the
             | promoter's personal Twitter/Facebook/blog to Reason.com or
             | Watts Up With That and, if successful, move up to Fox News
             | or The Wall Street Journal.
             | 
             | By numbers, most people hear about this in the latter
             | stages of step 3. That means that when someone gets all
             | fired up about the hot scientific news they got from Tucker
             | and starts repeating it, anyone who cares about the subject
             | has not only heard about it before but has seen it debunked
             | repeatedly, too. That tends to get instant downvotes, just
             | as people do not read spam.
             | 
             | You can see a contrast here: when someone posts something
             | original and shows that they've done some homework, they
             | get plenty of engagement.
        
             | epistasis wrote:
             | It's really hard to find downsides to these that are not
             | just pure FUD. They really are better than the alternatives
             | in all ways.
             | 
             | We will look back at the days of gas powered engines like
             | we do at steam powered locomotives.
        
             | nopenopenopeno wrote:
             | Sounds exactly the same as what parent is warning about to
             | me
        
             | throwaway894345 wrote:
             | Only when the "flaws" are in the form of "lol what do you
             | think your electric car is charged with?! (mic drop)".
        
             | googlryas wrote:
             | It may also be because those flaws are trite comments with
             | clear answers that just get repeated in a meme-like
             | fashion. I cannot tell you how many people I say that are
             | worried about ranging anxiety, for example, but go on maybe
             | one long trip per year.
        
             | ajuc wrote:
             | One of the reasons is that a lot of these downsides are
             | overplayed, based on long-obsolete data or false
             | altogether.
             | 
             | For some examples:
             | 
             | - electric cars are still burning fossil fuels cause
             | powerplants burn fossil fuels (yeah, but electric cars go
             | ~2 times further on 1 liter of fuel even if all our power
             | came from fossil fuels which it doesn't)
             | 
             | - rare earth minerals are limited which means we can't have
             | everybody drive electric cars (rare earth minerals aren't
             | THAT rare, for example lithium is more common than lead on
             | Earth, the current availability is a function of past
             | investment which is based on past demand - when demand
             | grows quickly the infrastructure lags and you get temporary
             | price hikes, also there are alternatives)
             | 
             | - batteries/solar cells can't be recycled (they can,
             | there's just not enough demand right now because we're at
             | the exponential growth phase so the used batteries/solar
             | panels are very small percentage of the currently-in-use
             | batteries/solar panels)
             | 
             | - you cannot have 100% renewable power grid because
             | unpredictable production (you can, some countries do - for
             | example Costarica and many countries are very close - for
             | example Portugal and Norway - but it creates different
             | problems than the traditional powerplants - but there are
             | ways to solve this which are getting ever more economically
             | viable - citing data from 10 years ago is about as sensible
             | as citing CPU transitor counts from 1990s when talking
             | about designing a new graphic card)
        
               | derriz wrote:
               | 100% isn't the goal.. yet. Nor is it practical for many
               | countries. But, getting to 70-80% renewables with current
               | technology is feasible and economic for nearly all
               | countries. The balance to be provided by modern (natural)
               | gas turbine generation.
               | 
               | There's no need to slow down getting to 70-80% renewables
               | because we're unsure how to cover the last 20%. The
               | latter is a problem for future decades.
        
               | tpxl wrote:
               | > lithium is more common than lead on Earth
               | 
               | Lithium isn't a rare earth mineral.
        
               | hwillis wrote:
               | I'll note that neodymium is, and is used in very small
               | amounts (much less even than lithium) in most EV electric
               | motors (specifically, the reluctance types that are
               | currently most popular). It's not essential, but it does
               | increase range by a few percent.
               | 
               | Neodymium is also one of the most abundant REEs- there
               | are basically two groups of REEs, some of which are rare
               | and some of which are >10x more abundant. Neodymium is in
               | the latter. It's also not that supply is restricted (eg,
               | how it all comes from china)- the _demand_ is so low that
               | the cost means it is not mined even where it is easy to
               | harvest. There are large mines in the US and elsewhere
               | that are shut down because China just does it cheaper.
        
               | ajuc wrote:
               | It was about cobalt before, now that batteries switched
               | to LFP without cobalt the naysayers switched to
               | complaining about lack of lithium :)
        
               | Galaxeblaffer wrote:
               | >- you cannot have 100% renewable power grid because
               | unpredictable production (you can, some countries do -
               | for example Costarica and many countries are very close -
               | for example Portugal and Norway - but it creates
               | different problems than the traditional powerplants - but
               | there are ways to solve this which are getting ever more
               | economically viable - citing data from 10 years ago is
               | about as sensible as citing CPU transitor counts from
               | 1990s when talking about designing a new graphic card)
               | 
               | this one is very questionable though and only very
               | specific countries with the right geography can cheaply
               | attain 100% electricity from renewables. Two of the
               | countries you mention are very fortunate to have almost
               | endless possibilities for hydro and Portugal still at 50%
               | gas/coal ?
               | 
               | the problems as i see it with renewables is climate
               | change. wind patterns can change, places can become arid.
               | We could even see catastrophies blocking out the sun for
               | days, months or even years. So while renewables are cheap
               | to build right now we shouldn't rely on them completely.
               | We also need to solve the storage part that is major
               | issue for solar and wind even though imo they should only
               | be used for creating synthetic fuels
        
               | thrown_22 wrote:
               | >- electric cars are still burning fossil fuels cause
               | powerplants burn fossil fuels (yeah, but electric cars go
               | ~2 times further on 1 liter of fuel even if all our power
               | came from fossil fuels which it doesn't)
               | 
               | No they don't. When you add the efficiency of the grid,
               | the charging station, charging the battery and
               | discharging the battery burning a lump of coal to power
               | your Tesla has _no_ advantage over burning a bottle of
               | petrol for your non SUV.
               | 
               | This is a lot like the meme that solar is cheap - the
               | part that's always left out: "At noon".
        
               | hgomersall wrote:
               | Let's consider the numbers... A decent modern combined
               | cycle gas turbine can achieve 60% efficiency, so let's
               | take 50% to be conservative. Transmission losses are
               | generally better than 15%, so that leaves a combined
               | efficiency of 42.5%. A pessimistic charge/discharge
               | efficiency for lithium ion would be 80% and I'd expect
               | the charger to be 90% efficient, which gives us a total
               | (pessimistic) efficiency of 31%.
               | 
               | An internal combustion engine has an optimistic
               | efficiency of about 30%.
               | 
               | So, even if we ignore all the losses in fuel distribution
               | for ICE cars and ignore regenerative effects in electric
               | cars and the ability to incrementally decarbonise the
               | grid, electric still has a slight advantage.
        
               | thrown_22 wrote:
               | You're missing the engine efficiency. Which is another
               | ~90% efficiency process. That brings it down to be lower
               | than an ice.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Those are incredibly pessimistic numbers for power plants
               | and optimistic numbers for ICE. On average 5% of the
               | electricity transmitted and distributed in the United
               | States is wasted your other numbers are similarly
               | inaccurate.
               | 
               | ICE engines are only ~30% efficient under optimal
               | conditions, idling still consumes fuel and engines idle a
               | lot in normal driving including coasting down a large
               | hill, slowing down, stoplights etc. Similarly turning on
               | and heavy acceleration etc is extremely inefficient. This
               | is where the primary benefit comes for hybrid cars not
               | regenerative breaking.
               | 
               | Also, comparing gasoline to electricity ignores all the
               | energy required to make gasoline. Oil refineries both use
               | serious amounts of energy and release massive quantities
               | of CO2 directly.
        
               | hgomersall wrote:
               | Indeed, I merely wished to bound the problem.
        
               | Schroedingersat wrote:
               | You forgot to include the other liter of fuel spent
               | extracting, refining, and shipping the first one. Hence
               | 2x. Also coal has double the emissions of oil per kWh so
               | on an energy basis it's 1/4th
        
               | thrown_22 wrote:
               | Keep moving the goalposts bud.
               | 
               | OP made a blatantly false claim. She was wrong. That's
               | it.
        
               | da768 wrote:
               | Of course, on the other side, there's never any pollution
               | involved bringing fuel to the gas pump.
        
               | thrown_22 wrote:
               | Or to bring coal to the power plant.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | ilyt wrote:
               | > - electric cars are still burning fossil fuels cause
               | powerplants burn fossil fuels (yeah, but electric cars go
               | ~2 times further on 1 liter of fuel even if all our power
               | came from fossil fuels which it doesn't)
               | 
               | So do hybrids. Burning fuel at power station isn't 2x as
               | efficient as burning it in ICE engine; most of the
               | savings come from not wasting power while braking
        
               | bityard wrote:
               | I love my Prius, but over my years of driving it my
               | suspicion is that the regen braking contributes VERY
               | little power to the battery, and I try to brake using
               | regen as much as possible. I would guess that most Prius
               | drivers (who drive the car like a normal car, which is
               | even what Toyota says to do) get back a truly trivial
               | amount of energy out of regen braking.
               | 
               | It wouldn't surprise me if full EV regen braking is much
               | more efficient and useful, though.
        
               | taneq wrote:
               | I seem to recall estimates on various EV conversion
               | forums that regen braking saves 5-10% range at best, and
               | the more efficiently you drive normally, the less
               | difference it makes.
        
               | LgWoodenBadger wrote:
               | Fwiw, my truck has an electric motor and battery, for
               | extra torque only, not for any hybrid ability, but due to
               | its regenerative braking ability I'm still on its
               | original brake pads at 50k miles.
        
               | CarVac wrote:
               | It's optimal to coast if you can avoid regeneration, but
               | if you _must_ brake then you want as much of that to be
               | regenerative as possible.
               | 
               | On both EVs and on hybrids.
               | 
               | EVs have more regenerative braking power and capacity
               | though; my Prius fills up rapidly when descending a
               | mountain.
        
               | IndrekR wrote:
               | My EV reports 18 kWh/100km for driving and 4 kWh/100km
               | gained from recuperation. That is significant.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | One correction - a typical coal burning power plant is
               | approximately 33% efficient at converting fuel to energy
               | [https://www.energy.gov/fecm/transformative-power-
               | systems], and combined cycled natural gas power plants
               | are 45-57% efficient. [https://www.sciencedirect.com/topi
               | cs/engineering/natural-gas...]
               | 
               | Direct ICE vehicles are between 11-27% efficient.
               | [https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.2478/rtuect-2020-0041]
               | 
               | So even a inefficient coal plant is about 50% more
               | efficient than a very efficient normal ICE car, and
               | combined cycle natural gas IS 2x more efficient than a
               | very efficient normal ICE car - and about 5x more
               | efficient than a non-efficient ICE car.
               | 
               | Lots of cross comparisons can be made, but on overage,
               | even with transmission losses, charging losses, etc. it
               | would be very unusual for an EV + power plant combo to be
               | _less efficient end to end_ than directly fueling a
               | traditional ICE vehicle. If it was, it would likely just
               | be a few percent.
               | 
               | CapEx is a real concern here of course, and logistics.
               | 
               | But opex and energy efficiency are solidly in the EV
               | camp.
        
               | kwhitefoot wrote:
               | > So do hybrids
               | 
               | No they don't. All the energy in a hybrid comes from an
               | internal combustion engine which is generally less than
               | 40%. Hybrids help by running the the ICE only when it
               | would be efficient to do so but they can't help in
               | constant speed highway driving.
        
               | timthorn wrote:
               | > All the energy in a hybrid comes from an internal
               | combustion engine which is generally less than 40%.
               | 
               | Only if you define hybrid to exclude plug-in hybrids.
               | Almost all my driving is on charge, with only longer
               | trips 2 or 3 times a month relying on the ICE in my
               | hybrid.
        
               | salty_biscuits wrote:
               | Partially true. You can get away with a more efficient
               | thermodynamic cycle on the ICE due to the more uniform
               | load on the engine so they can be more efficient.
        
               | lolinder wrote:
               | Burning fuel at a single power station that is reasonably
               | distant from populated areas is _far_ better from a
               | health perspective than tens of thousands of small,
               | poorly-regulated engines burning fuel within 10 yards of
               | people 's homes. I would take electric over ICE even if
               | it were 1-to-1 on fuel consumption, just to feel like I
               | can safely breath outside again.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | As long as they're still cars, you should keep holding
               | your breath. Tires and breaks still give off the
               | polluting dust, not to mention the noise
        
               | ajuc wrote:
               | > Burning fuel at power station isn't 2x as efficient as
               | burning it in ICE engine
               | 
               | ICE engines are under 30% efficient (not counting the
               | losses to accelerating/breaking and standing on idle in
               | traffic jams), multi-stage turbines at powerplants are
               | 50-60% efficient (but the 60% ones are rare).
        
               | haberman wrote:
               | > most of the savings come from not wasting power while
               | braking
               | 
               | That doesn't check out for me. ICE engines are
               | inefficient because much of the energy from the fuel is
               | converted into heat rather than kinetic energy. Every ICE
               | engine has a radiator whose sole purpose is to vent off
               | waste heat from the engine. ICE engines don't even need a
               | distinct heating element to keep the cabin warm, the
               | waste heat from the engine is more heat than the cabin
               | will ever need.
               | 
               | I don't know that much about how power stations work, but
               | surely it is not this inefficient.
               | 
               | EDIT: Did a bit of reading on gas/coal power plants and
               | it sounds like they are indeed very inefficient: as bad
               | as 20 percent, as good as 60 percent:
               | https://www.energy.gov/fecm/how-gas-turbine-power-plants-
               | wor...
               | 
               | That is mildly horrifying.
        
               | aftbit wrote:
               | Look up the Carnot cycle and its efficiency. This is
               | theorized to be the best possible efficiency for a heat
               | engine. All heat engines work by rejecting a large
               | fraction of their input heat to an output heat sink. I've
               | heard efficiencies in the 30-50% range for big coal and
               | nuclear plants, much lower for smaller plants.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | For specifity, ICE engines will look more like an Otto
               | cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_cycle
        
               | VBprogrammer wrote:
               | It seems with electric cars there is always another
               | compaint. First came the long tail pipe argument, I think
               | even the most ardent of naysayers have realised that that
               | one is bullshit.
               | 
               | Then the batteries were going to be scattered about the
               | countryside. Except most of them are still in cars, the
               | demand for batteries from crashed damaged cars is high
               | and the life even in early models appears to exceed
               | expectations.
               | 
               | The reality is that Tesla has replaced the Ferrari as the
               | car to aspire to. Nissan have even started producing
               | their e-power cars who's main advantage is that they
               | drive like an electric car (using a petrol engine as
               | generator). Electric cars are going to be a thing, the
               | only limit it battery tech and to my mind that only
               | changes the eventual market share, if some of the battery
               | tech pans out it could be close to 100%. I'm expecting
               | more 60% or so, battery tech will be good enough for most
               | people.
        
               | nicoburns wrote:
               | Here in the UK (and I believe most of Europe), they're
               | planning to ban sales of new ICE cars in I believe 2030.
               | As such, 100% uptake (or close enough, perhaps there will
               | some exceptions for specialised use cases) is almost
               | guaranteed.
        
               | VBprogrammer wrote:
               | I'm in the UK too. I think the 2030 date is unrealistic.
               | I'm pro-electric cars but we're still a long way away
               | from it being the only option. At the very least we need
               | widespread on street charging for the half of people who
               | don't have the option to charge at home. Rapid charging
               | is ok but not suitable for exclusive use.
        
               | mqus wrote:
               | In Europe. the greens are only talking about it, but no
               | concrete law was proposed or even planned afaik. But VW
               | did talk about no longer selling ICE cars in 2035 [1].
               | But as always, 2030 is long ways off and there is
               | probably a lot of marketing in it, let's see how it plays
               | out.
               | 
               | [1] https://carthrust.com/2021/06/28/vw-says-no-to-ice-
               | powered-c...
        
             | kodah wrote:
             | Personally, I think both ends of these conversations could
             | see improvement. A lot of people on here are rich and well-
             | to-do so if you tell them the thing they bought for
             | $45-$90k is more of a luxury than an environmental benefit
             | or investment they'll get upset. Likewise, when rich people
             | tell everyone their flatulents don't stink but others do,
             | it'll make people upset, especially if the price tag to
             | non-stinking-flatulents is high.
             | 
             | Civility and mutual respect tend to go a lot farther than
             | "just facts".
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | Or a story similar to coal power, where people found it wasn't
         | that hard to extend and grow our usage of it a lot longer than
         | originally planned. Where there's an economic will, we will
         | find a political way.
         | 
         | But all in all, it's very good to know that solar is a better
         | form of power generation that we thought.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | "Experts once warned millions of tons of waste from solar panels
       | was on the horizon"
       | 
       | Eh, no expert ever warned that. It was always an overblown issue,
       | taken up by bored members of the press with deadlines to meet and
       | column-inches to fill with words, shadow-funded by oil interest
       | astroturf campaigns.
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | Manufactured goods require resources and produce waste, film at
         | 11.
        
         | nautilius wrote:
         | Do you have some resources about recycling of panels? I
         | understand the point of the article is it's no longer the
         | pressing issue it was once considered (by some), but I am
         | curious if it's now just a delayed problem, or if recycling is
         | a solved problem? Thanks!
        
           | Schroedingersat wrote:
           | Industrial scale recycling is both extant and has been
           | mandatory in many countries for close to a decade
           | http://www.solarwaste.eu/
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | https://news.energysage.com/recycling-solar-panels/
           | 
           | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/16/australi.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13640.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://blog.veolianorthamerica.com/how-to-recycle-solar-
           | pan...
           | 
           | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solar-recycling-
           | idUSKBN1J...
        
       | ThrowawayTestr wrote:
       | It's mostly silicon, how bad could the waste be?
        
         | thrown_22 wrote:
         | Cyanide is just carbon and nitrogen. How could it be possibly
         | toxic?
        
           | ilyt wrote:
           | Can't just melt it into a blob like you can with glass
        
           | hwillis wrote:
           | Elements and chemicals are very different things. Silicon is
           | the #2 most common element on earth and if you smash a bunch
           | of solar panels, they turn into sand when they get wet. Or if
           | you just wait.
           | 
           | Even pure silicon metal is totally benign, even in large
           | amounts. Certainly safer than iron, which can kill you in
           | relatively small amounts if it's in a bioavailable form.
           | Silicon is already literally everywhere, in every form it
           | will reasonably be transformed into.
           | 
           | Even the boron and phosphorus that make up a tiny percent of
           | cells are extremely benign. The biggest issues are the tin
           | fingers and solder, and probably the lead that is often
           | present. But lead is also far from necessary. And
           | unfortunately, the human race is going to be dealing with
           | lead dust for a while already, just from how it used to be in
           | gasoline.
        
         | Archelaos wrote:
         | Solar modules contain lead for soldering and some contain
         | cadmium telluride (CdTe).[1] If handled and recycled correctly,
         | the risk of exposure of lead and cadmium into the environment
         | is minimal. However, there is a possibility that such materials
         | are released by accident (fire, cracks) or improper disposal.
         | That is why there are demands that solar modules containing
         | CdTe should be basically abandoned, as there exist
         | alternatives. However, the overall risk appears to be
         | comparable to that of other products containing these
         | materials, such as many consumer electronics.
         | 
         | [1] CdTe has a low toxicity. However, it may pose a significant
         | hazard if its cadmium is released by some chemical reaction,
         | which cannot generally be ruled out.
        
           | hwillis wrote:
           | > Solar modules contain lead for soldering
           | 
           | Not all of them, and lead is also non-essential. Most solder
           | in other contexts is already lead-free. It's also pretty
           | minor compared to the other sources of lead in our lives
           | already.
           | 
           | > some contain cadmium telluride (CdTe)
           | 
           |  _only_ "thin film" cells, which are virtually obsolete-
           | they're the flexible kind that you get in "cell charging"
           | backpacks and stuff. Price decreases in silicon in large-
           | scale use, so they have absolutely no bearing on renewable
           | energy. They're not worth mentioning- a 100x increase in
           | solar power will not increase the amount of cadmium cells at
           | all.
        
             | Archelaos wrote:
             | The reports I quoted in reply to another comment here
             | claimed a rather high market share for CdTe cells and
             | predicted massively increasing volumns in the future. So
             | even if they might become obsolete for "classic" flat
             | panels, they seem to remain with us for "flexible"
             | solutions, arn't they?
        
           | Schroedingersat wrote:
           | They've been completely abandoned for a while now. If you
           | stack the small portion of CdTe ones neatly somewhere,
           | someone will want the Te soon enough.
           | 
           | Lead is already mostly phased out.
        
             | Archelaos wrote:
             | This does not seem to be the case. I googled "cdte cells
             | market share" and immediately found a couple of Web-sites
             | that say otherwise (although their numbers differ quite
             | considerably):
             | 
             | https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/cadmium-
             | te...
             | 
             | https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/587880725/cadmium-
             | telluride-...
             | 
             | https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/as-demand-rises-
             | exp...
        
       | cjlars wrote:
       | >The report projected that the United States would have a
       | cumulative total of 7.5 to 10 million metric tons of solar panel
       | waste in 2050.
       | 
       | This compares to 292 million tons of total landfill waste in 2018
       | alone [1], putting solar panel waste on the order of 0.1% of
       | total waste produced in the US between now and 2050.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.epa.gov/facts-and-figures-about-materials-
       | waste-...
        
         | morsch wrote:
         | Note that this figure is from the 2016 EPA report which the
         | article claims (based on a new paper) may be overblown.
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | And to give some further context to the over-inflated 10M
           | tons of solar panel waste stat (over 30 years), our carbon
           | emissions from fossil fuels are about 570M tons per year into
           | the atmosphere. That doesn't count all the equipment used for
           | extraction of fossil fuels, all the massive amounts of toxic
           | waste water that comes with fossil fuel extraction, all the
           | ash from coal, etc.
           | 
           | Which is to say, all the concern, even on inflated numbers,
           | was FUD and a distraction from real problems.
        
             | weaksauce wrote:
             | > was FUD and a distraction from real problems.
             | 
             | or actual malice from the bad actors paid for by the fossil
             | fuel companies to spread distrust in the transition to a
             | more sustainable clean energy system.
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | I normally appreciate links to studies with numbers in the
         | comments, but as the others have pointed out: This article is
         | referring _to that study_.
        
       | fbdab103 wrote:
       | >If solar panels can last 40 to 50 years, which is roughly double
       | what used to be the rule of thumb for their life span
       | 
       | Presumably, these panels face ever diminishing efficiencies. What
       | is the threshold where it makes sense to replace a working, but
       | low efficiency panel with a new one? That is, if a field of
       | ancient generation-1 panels is operating at 5% efficiency, is it
       | worth the expense to tear them out and replace them with
       | generation N?
        
         | 1123581321 wrote:
         | That's a good question. Setting aside climate change and fossil
         | fuel issues, the general answer is something like when the
         | present value of a new installation, minus installation cost,
         | is greater than the present value of the existing installation.
         | Estimation can't be precise but after 20 or 25 years, the
         | homeowner will have some idea of the remaining efficiency
         | they're dealing with. They might know the reliability of their
         | inverters, too.
         | 
         | The replacement installation should be cheaper since initial
         | permitting and electrical hookup is in place, and the roof
         | mount might be reusable.
         | 
         | Tax incentives to modernize old solar installations will factor
         | significantly.
         | 
         | Put another way: how high did your electric bill have to be to
         | justify installing panels in the first place?
        
           | fbdab103 wrote:
           | I was thinking of industrial installations, but similar issue
           | with residential. I assume that not many roofs are good after
           | 20-30 years, so by the time the solar panel warranty starts
           | to expire, it is time to get a new roof. Might as well
           | upgrade panels at the same time.
        
             | 1123581321 wrote:
             | Ah, sure. Yes, similar math.
             | 
             | I forgot that for residential, in many areas the
             | replacement panels would probably come about like a typical
             | roof replacement: after a storm, subsidized by insurance.
             | That may be the case with industrial/commercial as well,
             | but I'm not familiar with insurance trends there.
        
         | heavenlyblue wrote:
         | Usually, the warranty will guarantee a 90% power output for the
         | first 10 years and a 80% power output for the entire 25 years.
         | In fact, some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past
         | the end of their lives.
         | 
         | https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/how_long_do_solar_panels_last/
        
           | jansan wrote:
           | > some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past the end
           | of their lives.
           | 
           | Then it shouln't be the end of their lives, should it?
        
       | kragen wrote:
       | i explained this in a comment thread here 3 months ago
       | 
       | > _your concern is like a kid worrying that if his parents buy
       | him a lollipop they won 't be able to afford this month's
       | rent...not completely disconnected from reality but it's way out
       | of proportion_
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32201803
       | 
       | i touched on the points of longevity, total scale, recyclability,
       | toxicity, and land use, and i calculated that the solar panels
       | needed to power the entire world's total energy use would fit
       | into a single reservoir in andhra pradesh
       | 
       | i've been talking about this for years
       | 
       | too bad fast company reporters don't read hn threads, dan gearino
       | could have avoided embarrassing himself in his february article
       | for inside climate news
       | 
       | commenting here is a fucking waste of time, and so is reading
       | fast company or inside climate news
        
       | seltzered_ wrote:
       | For conversational context, linking this recent article on solar
       | waste touching more on the current state and concerns from the
       | reverse logistics industry:
       | https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-14/california...
        
       | nostromo wrote:
       | Aren't they mostly silicon and recyclable metals?
       | 
       | If so, who cares about the waste? It depends on what's in the
       | waste that matters, not its raw volume. The materials used in
       | solar panels are both highly recyclable and environmentally
       | benign, a great combination.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | It's the Gallium Arsenide, from my understanding. There are
         | processes to recover the Gallium, but it produces a waste
         | that's very high in Arsenic.
        
           | Schroedingersat wrote:
           | The only GaAs involved in solar is an optional amount in the
           | power circuitry.
           | 
           | CdTe was briefly a thing for abiut 30% of the market, but
           | peoplewill want the Telerium soon enough. Modern panels are
           | sand and about 50g/kW net of silver. Recycling is mandatory.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | Hmm.. there are a number of different chemistries, and
           | they're not all clearly labelled like batteries. It appears
           | the switch from phosphoros/boron dopants to gallium was quite
           | recent: https://theconversation.com/the-sunlight-that-powers-
           | solar-p...
           | 
           | But that's gallium dopant rather than GaAs.
           | 
           | There's also CIGS and CdTe "thin film" solar cells, which are
           | extremely toxic in even small amounts. But those chemistries
           | were never very popular.
           | 
           | As far as I can tell most cells currently installed are poly
           | or monocrystalline silicon cells, which contain
           | phosphoros/boron dopants and aluminium metallization for the
           | contacts. Those are the cheapest and also least toxic
           | formulation.
           | 
           | (Fun fact: you know what popular component uses GaAs? Red
           | LEDs!)
        
           | scythe wrote:
           | There are no commercial panels made of gallium arsenide. They
           | are used in space, where efficiency rules over everything
           | else, and for certain military applications.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8200097/
           | 
           | There was a company, Alta Devices, that planned to
           | commercialize GaAs thin-film (so light on materials usage)
           | solar panels with nearly 30% efficiency, but they were bought
           | up by Hanergy which ran into financial troubles and shut it
           | down. It's not clear what happened to their patent portfolio,
           | but their equipment was liquidated in 2020, and the founder
           | now works for UC Berkeley.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Indeed. Compared to other the garbage that people put in
         | landfills right now, this is nothing.
         | 
         | Of course this article is a clever bit of FUD in disguise. By
         | taking the problem seriously and then presenting a solution to
         | the problem that never was real to begin with:
         | 
         | 'We're gonna have (tens of millions) of metric tons of waste
         | from PV. We're all gonna die,'"
         | 
         | Actual quote from the article to convince us that there
         | apparently are people that believe that. Classic FUD move. It's
         | really, really, bad but the scientists are on it. So you can
         | stop worrying now. But you had good reason to be worried and
         | you should continue to be worried. That's the message.
         | 
         | Except of course, there never was a problem to worry about. The
         | purpose of this article is perpetuating the myth that there
         | was.
         | 
         | It's a nice business challenge how to recover some valuable
         | metals from solar panels. And several companies are on that; as
         | you would expect. But if they fail, we basically dump some
         | inert material in a landfill. Not a big deal. People dump far
         | worse things into landfills already.
        
           | 3D30497420 wrote:
           | I think this is taking an overly critical view of the
           | article. I did a very quick search and this HBR article,
           | which makes it sound like solar panel waste is expected to be
           | a significant problem, was the top result:
           | https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power
           | 
           | So clearly some people, including presumably some prominent
           | ones, are saying this will be a problem. So I'd say it is
           | good that there is data to address this criticism.
        
         | colordrops wrote:
         | They also last at least 25 years. There's no way that the waste
         | from the panels is worse than 25 years of CO2 emissions.
        
           | worldsayshi wrote:
           | My thought as well. CO2 gets dispersed in the atmosphere and
           | is produced each time you burn fuel. Panels stay in place,
           | the waste is produced several orders of magnitude less and
           | you can collect it in the same form you produced it.
           | 
           | It has to be so much better.
        
             | __pache__ wrote:
             | I'm super confused, how is this better for the Earth?
             | Aren't you using a gigantic amount of CO2 to make these
             | panels that work intermittently, with giant batteries to
             | help make them realiable?
             | 
             | Why not just use 1 reliable power system, instead of having
             | 1 unreliable backed up by 1 reliable?
        
               | Mesopropithecus wrote:
               | Not following, which 1 reliable power system do you mean?
        
               | __pache__ wrote:
               | Any.
               | 
               | Solar/Wind, for example, are not reliable.
               | 
               | Nuclear, for example, is reliable.
               | 
               | Instead of having Solar/Wind with batteries and all this
               | nonsense, along with Nuclear for its stability, just skip
               | the nonsense and go straight to Nuclear. Solar/Wind are
               | terrible...
        
               | derriz wrote:
               | You can no more rely on nuclear or coal generation for
               | your electricity without back-up than you can on wind or
               | solar. A nuclear plant in the US is off-line for 29 days
               | a year on average according to the EIA. So you still need
               | back-up for your "reliable" nuclear, unless you want
               | people using candles for nearly a month a year.
               | 
               | All generation technologies are intermittent - they're
               | just intermittent in different ways.
        
               | __pache__ wrote:
               | What is your argument...? Are you admitting "being
               | intermittent is bad," while ignoring Solar is
               | intermittent like 70% of the time vs 10% of the time for
               | Nuclear?
               | 
               | ...great argument?
               | 
               | https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37252
               | 
               | doesn't seem like you interpreted this correctly, seems
               | bad faith for sure.
               | 
               | > A scheduled shutdown of a nuclear power plant is
               | generally timed to coincide with the plant's refueling
               | cycle. Nuclear power plants typically refuel every 18 to
               | 24 months, often during the fall and spring when
               | electricity demand is lower.
               | 
               | It's shut down every ~2 years, not "every year."
               | 
               | > _During the past six years, average refueling outages
               | have become shorter, decreasing from an average of 46
               | days in 2012 to 34 days in 2018._
               | 
               | They're getting better and better.
               | 
               | So adjust the above 10% downtime number I gave, Nuclear
               | is down ~3-5% of the time it sounds like. With
               | improvements, this can probably get down to 1%.
               | Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
               | 
               | EDIT: not to mention this is an implementation problem.
               | You can have multiple small reactors that never need
               | maintenance where you just hot swap an old reactor for a
               | new one.
               | 
               | https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-
               | modular-...
               | 
               | The anti-science crowd is nuts on this stuff.. it's not
               | _that hard..._
        
               | derriz wrote:
               | I though my argument was clear - that you need back-up
               | for nuclear power also?
               | 
               | You accuse me of bad faith for quoting a number which
               | includes both unscheduled and scheduled shutdowns by
               | comparing with a number which only include the latter.
               | 
               | And I don't even understand where this is supposed to be
               | going because even if plants never had unscheduled
               | stoppages, you'd still need back-up.
               | 
               | But anyway, I find your tone overly aggressive. So it's
               | unlikely that any discussion will be productive.
        
           | KyeRussell wrote:
           | Popular solar markets like Australia are filled with junky
           | panels because we ended up in a race to the bottom price-
           | wise. I can say with certainty that the panels bought by the
           | average consumer aren't lasting 25 years. In Western
           | Australia we have the cheapest solar in the world. Just don't
           | ask how long your system will last for.
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | What's the failure mode?
             | 
             | Degradation is one thing, but are the interconnects between
             | the embedded cells failing so they're outputting 0V? Or
             | over-integration and the micro-inverter fails? Or?
        
           | __pache__ wrote:
           | wait, why are CO2 emissions "bad?" it might even literally
           | take 20-25 years to "pay off the CO2" used to make, deliver,
           | and install the solar panels...
           | 
           | to me it seems like our CO2 emissions are not bad and the
           | effects on climate are very minor. this is playing out in
           | real time as we make dire predictions that never seem to come
           | to fruition. the world is ending in 12 years, said someone
           | popular in ~2016. Well, halfway there, lady!
        
             | Mistletoe wrote:
             | There's nothing we could say to change your mind since
             | you've already ignored all the science that exists.
        
               | __pache__ wrote:
        
             | aperson_hello wrote:
             | Making and installing solar panels doesn't cost anywhere
             | that much CO2. Best numbers I see suggest payback in ~3
             | years assuming they're produced with coal power (and the
             | numbers are better if they're produced with cleaner power,
             | though electricity is fungible, so I'm not sure if that
             | really makes sense to do). As a quick gut check, look at
             | unsubsidized solar install costs - they're significantly
             | lower than the cost of the electricity they generate in the
             | 5-10 year range in almost all lower and middle latitude
             | places...
             | 
             | Also, idiots stating unscientific garbage (like the world
             | ending in 2028) doesn't mean that there's no science behind
             | it... Just that there was an idiot making up BS.
             | 
             | Edit: it was a 2019 quote, not a 2016 quote. So we have all
             | the way until 2031 until the world "ends"... Still an
             | idiotic quote
        
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