[HN Gopher] Why are U.S. transit projects so costly? This group ...
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       Why are U.S. transit projects so costly? This group is on the case
        
       Author : jseliger
       Score  : 160 points
       Date   : 2022-11-11 19:25 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.governing.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.governing.com)
        
       | kneel wrote:
       | I once worked construction at a state park, I made prevailing
       | wage which was 4X more than my regular hourly wage.
       | 
       | Talk about the slowest moving construction project, everyone was
       | incentivized to take breaks and milk their hours. We turned a 4
       | hours job into a 2 day project.
        
         | chasebank wrote:
         | I worked for a private roofing company one summer in high
         | school. The crew I was on would take two hour long naps under
         | their trucks in the shade. I asked about it and one dude said,
         | "The longer the job takes, the more we get paid." I can only
         | imagine this attitude is amplified for government work.
        
         | markus_zhang wrote:
         | Just wondering why does it affect the total cost though. I
         | think the total cost is stated in the contract? So if you want
         | to pay premium for the workers you are free to so that but that
         | premium should be out from your pocket?
        
           | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
           | Usually projects pay prevailing wage due to a mandate, so
           | every bid has that cost built in.
        
           | pj_mukh wrote:
           | Naively, wondering about this as well.
           | 
           | One more Naive question: Can the government do giant speed
           | bonuses i.e. make it worth their while to finish quick?
        
             | drekipus wrote:
             | Then you get rushed jobs, unfinished work, etc.
        
               | pj_mukh wrote:
               | Doesn't seem like it would be hard to come up with
               | Objective metrics. The main reason televisions get
               | cheaper is because their quality/output/reliability can
               | be objectively measured.
        
           | thetli8 wrote:
           | california regulations mandate prevailing wages for all
           | public works projects [1]. it affects the total cost because,
           | the government should be looking to save taxpayers money by
           | offering the contract to whichever GC that can get the
           | project done in the fastest + cheapest fashion.
           | 
           | prevailing wages essentially maps out to be the _highest
           | negotiated union rate_ in the same geography so the mandate
           | basically shoots, in the foot, the ability for the project to
           | collectively bargain.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.dir.ca.gov/public-works/prevailing-wage.html
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Victerius wrote:
       | HN is dead. This comment section proves it.
        
         | newaccount2021 wrote:
        
         | enchiridion wrote:
         | There's a lot of tension over politics at the moment, I think
         | people have been letting off steam here the past few days as a
         | result, because I've noticed it too.
         | 
         | Good news is that a lot of us know how good the dialogue can
         | be. Instead of despairing, why not jump in and raise the
         | conversation?
        
           | InCityDreams wrote:
           | As a Europerson...i don't really see much difference between
           | this comment section and many others - over several years, at
           | different times, let alone now.
           | 
           | One comment: "I really think this is pretty much solely about
           | politics [etc]."...is what we would refer to as 'social
           | stuff'.
           | 
           | Is it about being non-metric?
        
       | tunap wrote:
       | Many peoples' stamps are needed for any infrastructure being
       | built. Engineers(electrical, structural, environmental, etc),
       | architects, contractors, consultants, politicians and more, I
       | presume. My rural county with 20,000 residences had 3 backwoods
       | culverts replaced pre-pandemic(2 lanes, < 50 cars/day) & they
       | each had price tags between $0.8 - $1.5 million USD. A million
       | bucks to install new culverts & repave over... and the cheapest
       | one wasn't even paved. Must be nice to get a slice of that pie.
        
         | rnk wrote:
         | Can you give some more info on the size of this project? Hard
         | to understand why a culvert on an unpaved (and presumably small
         | water source) would cost much.
         | 
         | Almost any project on a highway costs a million dollars.
        
           | tunap wrote:
           | Take a peek down the rabbit hole. As a recent transplant, I,
           | too, have a hard time understanding the cost(s). It is
           | literally a creek, but it does get swollen when it rains. The
           | other projects were on Holbert Cove Rd, in the same time
           | frame.
           | 
           | https://connect.ncdot.gov/letting/Division%2014%20Letting/Fo.
           | ..
        
           | ejb999 wrote:
           | Not the OP, but here is one:
           | 
           | https://www.newburyportnews.com/news/local_news/mayor-
           | wants-...
           | 
           | $655,000 to replace a 5 to 6 foot culvert
        
       | pcurve wrote:
       | For those wondering about why there was no mention of union...
       | 
       | https://pedestrianobservations.com/2019/01/08/meme-weeding-u...
       | 
       | apparently, even in non union states, these project costs are
       | ridiculous.
        
         | legitster wrote:
         | I agree that unions are probably not a universal cause for
         | costs, but I'm not sure I buy into this 100%. The author is
         | equating right-to-work with union representation which isn't
         | accurate. And different unions can incur different types of
         | costs on different projects.
        
         | mikeyouse wrote:
         | Right - and in union-heavy countries like Germany and France,
         | the costs are often much lower than in the US. There could be
         | something to the structure or organization of US unions that
         | impacts things here, but it's clearly not the root cause.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | > the structure or organization of US unions that impacts
           | things here
           | 
           | An underrated topic. All unions are not made alike, and the
           | laws dictating European unions are very, very different than
           | those in the US.
        
             | wobbly_bush wrote:
             | There is very little discussion around this underrated
             | topic. In India, the places where unions have a strong
             | presence have lost a lot of industries. They have become
             | notorious for getting any work done in those places, as
             | some unions have morphed into gangs. This is not to imply
             | anything about the benefit/tradeoff of unions in other
             | countries.
        
           | beastman82 wrote:
           | It is not at all clear. Union contracts vary widely state to
           | state, country to country. I don't think you can make this
           | claim.
        
           | robomartin wrote:
           | > There could be something to the structure or organization
           | of US unions that impacts things here, but it's clearly not
           | the root cause.
           | 
           | Yes. US unions are very different from European unions.
           | Without getting into the details, US unions can be very
           | destructive, while European unions are far more wholistic or
           | cooperative.
           | 
           | To be clear, this is not about union members. It's about
           | union leadership and the "mafia" how they do business. Union
           | members are along for the ride, are sold entire narratives
           | they have to support and can end-up losing big. Entire
           | industries have been seriously damaged by our unions.
           | 
           | Source: I was in a union for about a decade. In addition to
           | this, I have had this conversation with members of other
           | unions, some of them as post-mortems after years of union
           | damage caused job losses to China and, ultimately, the
           | companies they worked for to shut down.
           | 
           | Solution? I can't think of a single simple idea. These are
           | engrained cultural things. People rarely wake up to the
           | reality of what's going on until the are suffering, take the
           | time to think it through and ultimately realize where the
           | pain came from.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | You'd have to replace the companies with something like a
             | co-op: from my experience with EU unions they're much more
             | like what we would call a co-op; they're working with the
             | business and the customer for the best possible solution
             | all-around.
             | 
             | Of course, in the US it's also become a huge political
             | thing.
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | In Europe it's generally understood that it has to be a
               | mutually beneficial relationship. Once it becomes
               | parasitic, the parasite risks killing the host (no matter
               | if it's the company having their employees walk out, or
               | the employees/union forcing through demands that make
               | their employer uncompetitive and close down).
               | 
               | That's harder to implement in a more individualistic
               | society like the US, and the history of violent union
               | busting surely didn't help either.
        
               | eric-hu wrote:
               | For the US, there may be historical cultural reasons as
               | well. Some unions were actually run by mafias. These are
               | the same kinds of groups that would go around
               | neighborhoods asking for "protection" money. If you don't
               | pay, you don't get protection from their henchmen ruining
               | your store.
        
               | crooked-v wrote:
               | Of course, the US also has a history of anti-union forces
               | effectively being armed paramilities who would break up
               | even the lightest of strikes or labor movements with
               | public violence.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
           | Probably because unions in France and Germany aren't as
           | powerful as US construction unions.
           | 
           | Also in the EU there is internal competition between
           | countries for construction projects that brings costs down
           | overall. Unions in Germany jacking up your costs? Maybe
           | there's a construction company in Poland or Czechia willing
           | to do it for less. In Austria I see many construction sites
           | are full with companies from Slovenia.
        
             | thescriptkiddie wrote:
             | Unions in France and Germany are much _more_ powerful than
             | in the US.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | Uhhhh. Probably not though.
               | 
               | US labor laws focuses on all or nothing union control of
               | a workplace. And once they have control, they get a lot
               | of legal power.
               | 
               | Europe has a different model where unions do not have to
               | have any sort of majority vote to be recognized. As such,
               | membership tends to be more fluid. So the unions
               | themselves have less specific control, but the unions can
               | be larger, and be more recognized without as much
               | antagonization.
               | 
               | Also, US unions have a lot of power over healthcare in
               | the US. Usually being a function of the state in Europe,
               | there's a lot less cost at stake when dealing with a
               | European union.
               | 
               | So I think it's largely an apples to oranges comparison.
        
               | rhaway84773 wrote:
               | It is an Apples to Oranges comparison.
               | 
               | But when was the last time a major public U.S. union went
               | on strike? Whereas French railway workers do it all the
               | time.
               | 
               | If you're talking about power along a single axis that
               | alone makes the French unions significantly more
               | powerful.
        
               | Dracophoenix wrote:
               | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/threat-of-rail-strike-
               | has-su...
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | _> But when was the last time a major public U.S. union
               | went on strike?_
               | 
               | If unions get their way, why would they need to go on
               | strike? The French go on strike because their unions
               | don't always get their way.
        
               | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
               | Unions in Europe can and do go on strike.
               | 
               | There's even a German word, "Warnstreik," that refers to
               | a short strike (as short as a few hours) carried out just
               | to send a warning to company management that the union
               | means business.
               | 
               | The unions in the transit sector are extremely active in
               | Germany and France. As we speak, Paris is at standstill
               | because of a massive transit strike.[0]
               | 
               | 0. https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20221110-unions-warn-of-
               | indefin...
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | More strikes indicates the union is _less_ powerful - a
               | powerful union never has to strike, because they always
               | get what they want just through fear of a strike.
        
               | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
               | I think you have it backwards.
               | 
               | Unless the threat is exercised every once in a while, it
               | is not taken seriously.
               | 
               | German and French companies know that unions are capable
               | of and willing to go on strike if their demands are not
               | met. That gives companies a much larger incentive to make
               | concessions.
               | 
               | The Warnstreiks I mentioned earlier are a tool for
               | reminding companies every once in a while that the
               | possibility of a strike exists. They're often used during
               | contract negotiations, when the union doesn't feel the
               | company is giving enough.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | So unless we nuke a country every once in awhile it's not
               | taken seriously?
               | 
               | The last rail strike was adverted at the last moment,
               | like it often is, so I suspect the railroad union is not
               | weak.
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | Not really. Unions in Germany are like a partnership to
               | the company management, while in the US are like the
               | enemy of the management focused on total control and can
               | get away with a lot more stuff than what they can in
               | Germany. At least in the construction business.
        
       | peteey wrote:
       | >some of the design, planning and early engineering is within the
       | realm of what a professional civil servant could do.
       | 
       | There's nuance to consulting costs. The government GS pay scale
       | poorly accounts for specialized labor. It the government cannot
       | pay to attract talent in a competitive fields, it must instead
       | pay consultants.
        
         | rhino369 wrote:
         | It's not just a pay issue. Government is terrible at hiring
         | good performers, weeding out bad performers, and motivating its
         | workforce.
         | 
         | Even if you hired a lead engineer for 400k, can't fire them if
         | the end up being incompetent.
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | Government can easily get rid of bad employees. They have to
           | be fair but it's far from the impossibility popularly
           | claimed.
           | 
           | What tends to be the case is that the management creates a
           | mess and then complains that they can't sack some scapegoat.
           | Following fairness rules would allow the employee to say that
           | they were following policy or had their judgement overruled,
           | so instead they're left alone and labeled "unfireable!"
           | 
           | It's also important not to have too rosy an impression of a
           | sector. Most of us here have seen private sector managers who
           | were untouchable or managed to shift blame to others. They
           | just didn't have public oversight and usually don't make the
           | news.
        
             | TexanFeller wrote:
             | < Government can easily get rid of bad employees
             | 
             | At one point my wife worked for the state and she had many
             | friends that also did that I spoke to. My wife's job was
             | intense, but a number of her friends would talk about the
             | shows they spent 20hrs binge watching at work in the past
             | week. I've been at privileged tech jobs that were somewhat
             | relaxed, but nothing close to that. If someone is so
             | useless that you don't notice when they're screwing off 50%
             | of the time... Even if the government can fire pathetically
             | low performers, they often don't!
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | There's plenty of that in the private sector, too
               | (thinking of multiple guys earning 6 figures because they
               | were reliable golf buddies) but in every case the problem
               | comes down to management. For example, were those people
               | being asked to do more? Were they getting negative
               | reviews?
        
           | PaulHoule wrote:
           | I dunno, I serve on a standards committee where one of the
           | other volunteers works for the U.S. Govt, she's taught me a
           | lot about a field I thought I was an expert in it.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | LA metro is in a similar bind. They have to go with certain
         | contractors because these contractors have hired all the talent
         | that is qualified to build to LA metros own specifications for
         | designs. They literally can't afford to understand their own
         | specs.
        
       | SoftTalker wrote:
        
         | mushbino wrote:
         | Hyperloop was mostly a scam to prevent governments from
         | investing in transit infrastructure that actually works. The
         | Boring Co only made a small tunnel in Las Vegas that only
         | allows one Tesla at a time, and of course only Teslas.
        
         | dementis wrote:
         | The prototype "hyperloop" tunnel in California is now becoming
         | a parking lot. https://news.yahoo.com/musks-california-
         | hyperloop-prototype-...
        
         | pencilguin wrote:
         | Everything is easier to talk about when freely lying is
         | allowed.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | Elon will still have to contend with the anchor of process that
         | is the public comment period and inevitable CEQA lawsuits by
         | rich busybodies who are afraid the poors will have a more
         | convenient time getting to their jobs in the service industry.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | This theory certainly seems more plausible -- he'd hate having
         | to reach an agreement with people he can't order around,
         | whereas selling cars is comparatively easy:
         | 
         | > Musk admitted to his biographer Ashlee Vance that Hyperloop
         | was all about trying to get legislators to cancel plans for
         | high-speed rail in California--even though he had no plans to
         | build it.
         | 
         | https://time.com/6203815/elon-musk-flaws-billionaire-visions...
        
           | jdminhbg wrote:
           | People say Hyperloop hasn't accomplished anything, but
           | serving as a scapegoat for the completely unrelated failure
           | of California HSR is more than nothing.
        
         | Entinel wrote:
         | I don't believe Elon ever had any intention to build Hyperloop
         | as originally pitched and the fact that the general public so
         | easily believed that a guy who makes his money selling cars was
         | going to invest in a mass transit project hilarious.
        
       | ww520 wrote:
       | It partly has to do with the bidding process - the drive to get
       | the lowest bid. Competent companies know the cost won't work and
       | are unwilling to put up the surety bonds to take on a project. It
       | leaves with the boldest incompetent company to make the lowest
       | bid who gets their foot in the door and then jack up the cost
       | overrun later on. Often the project failed due to cost overrun or
       | sheer incompetence. At the end the cost of doing business go up
       | for all parties involved.
       | 
       | I've seen transit projects with hundreds of millions budget fell
       | apart with nothing to show at the end, and have seen a transit
       | project that doubled the cost and tripled the schedule to get to
       | completion, and that was a good project.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | Reform of the bidding process is probably the most actionable
         | change that can be done. Even if we keep the core principle of
         | a "lowest bidder" process, there are bound to be lessons to be
         | learned from how other countries implement the process.
        
         | legitster wrote:
         | Also, the US bidding process is long, arbitrary, and favors
         | rent-seeking. Only a small subset of local firms will bother to
         | play in them.
         | 
         | The way a private company would solve the problem would be hire
         | a bunch of experts and in-house a lot of the technical design
         | and procurement work.
        
       | asdff wrote:
       | The article mentions the issue of local alternatives, but here is
       | an example of a half dozen "alternatives" to show how truly
       | ridiculous this is:
       | 
       | https://www.dropbox.com/sh/0byerml83ks8dvy/AAAOVqg4is6ytUG76...
       | 
       | The sepulveda transit project will be an underground heavy rail
       | project at the end of the day, unless the metro board is truly
       | corrupt that is, but you have these homeowner groups who must be
       | appeased (1), a monorail company that wants to use the transit
       | construction opportunity to steal from the public purse by
       | offering an objectively worse technology that the public will be
       | saddled with forever (2), and despite all of this 93% of the
       | actual public wants the underground heavy rail anyhow which
       | offers the fastest end to end time (3).
       | 
       | Despite this, LA metro is spending labor and time to come up with
       | and market these alternatives that are complete farces--3 of
       | which are monorail based which serve as appeasement to above
       | groups. Now imagine how much more efficient this could be if they
       | could just build what any engineer would select as the best
       | option (the fastest end to end option), and not have to do six
       | times the planning to appease certain groups anytime they planned
       | to do anything at all? Metro can't even paint a bus lane without
       | this massive community engagement process that only serves to
       | hamstring transit from being most optimal for commuters, to the
       | least likely to piss off car drivers or busybodys looking out
       | their window (4). Oh and this one single bus route was funded by
       | the taxpayer 6 years ago and ground was supposed to be broken 2
       | years ago. Considering the route was planned even before taxpayer
       | funding was approved, its been probably a decade at least of
       | squawking and politicking and not a drop of paint has been put to
       | the road surface yet.
       | 
       | 1. https://la.streetsblog.org/2022/02/07/homeowner-groups-
       | metro...
       | 
       | 2. https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/03/15/ten-reasons-to-
       | ditch-t...
       | 
       | 3. https://www.dailynews.com/2022/06/20/public-says-93-favor-
       | ra...
       | 
       | 4. https://la.streetsblog.org/2022/04/28/metro-board-
       | approves-b...
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | Why are they looking at heavy rail? Wouldn't light rail to
         | connect with the other light rail in the area make more sense?
         | 
         | I agree the monorail is stupid.
        
       | RadixDLT wrote:
       | the money passes through many diffrent hands, contractors,
       | construction companies, government taxes, license fees, architect
       | designers, middlemen...
        
       | larsiusprime wrote:
       | Arpit Gupta put it very well -- we need Value Capture for transit
       | financing: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/562077-value-
       | capture-is-...
       | 
       | When you put in a transit line, the surrounding land values go up
       | -- it's as old as the railroads. The governing body needs to
       | capture the increase in those land values. This is how transit is
       | funded in many Asian countries -- the transit project goes from
       | being a cost boondoggle to a profit center that pays for itself,
       | either by taxing the uplift in land values, or the governing body
       | owning that land and leasing it out to e.g. shops.
        
         | steve76 wrote:
        
         | rsj_hn wrote:
         | Finding more ways to spend even more doesn't solve the problem
         | of why it costs so much.
        
         | robomartin wrote:
         | > The governing body needs to capture the increase in those
         | land values.
         | 
         | No. The governing body needs to not burn taxpayer funds like
         | it's candy.
         | 
         | Justifying the grotesque over-spending and timelines of these
         | projects by saying "we'll come up with a way to _charge you
         | more money in taxes to make-up the difference_ is the root of
         | all problems with so many projects.
         | 
         | Why is it that the first reaction isn't to say do not spend my
         | money that way!
         | 
         | EDIT:
         | 
         | Interesting to see how this is misunderstood. Let's see if I
         | can make it simpler to understand.
         | 
         | 1- There is nothing wrong with demanding that government use
         | our money efficiently. This should not be controversial at all.
         | Would you pay 4x or 10x for someone to build you home or sell
         | you a car? Why not? Why can't we demand the same fairness from
         | government?
         | 
         | 2- Do not give more drugs to a drug addict. You are not going
         | to improve the cost-effectiveness of government projects by
         | giving them ore taxes. First make them more efficient. Then we
         | can talk about using the savings for other projects.
         | 
         | 3- No. Our (people) reason for existing isn't to pay taxes.
         | Taxes should be the minimum required to do the business we
         | require, not a cent more.
         | 
         | That's the problem. Nobody is interested in holding government
         | accountable for the way they conduct business.
        
           | birdyrooster wrote:
           | It is necessary to cede some of your autonomy for
           | cooperation. Cooperation is required for projects that
           | benefit your environment which may serve other people. You
           | have to cede some of your autonomy to serve other people.
           | Anything less is a fantasy and it will hurt you.
        
           | rnk wrote:
           | How do you pay for infrastructure without taxing someone?
           | Mass transit has other goods than the immediate user.
        
             | ROTMetro wrote:
             | Bonds against future revenue.
        
           | nrb wrote:
           | Isn't it both that we should be more efficient AND
           | contribution should be made locally for local improvements?
           | 
           | I think value capture addresses this somewhat in the sense
           | that if these projects are funded more locally, more
           | attention would be paid to costs and timeline as opposed to
           | the relatively distant federal money for which nobody feels a
           | responsibility.
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | Governments are not businesses - they should not be
             | thinking about "capturing value." Ideally, projects like
             | this are handled at the minimum level of government: your
             | city's transit system is your city's responsibility, funded
             | through local taxes. This aligns interests the best.
             | 
             | In practice, federal bureaucrats all over the world have
             | figured out how to insert themselves into these kinds of
             | local projects, which causes all sorts of conflict of
             | interest problems, and divorces the person spending the
             | money from the person funding the project (both the people
             | who should be funding it and the people who are) and the
             | person getting value from it.
        
           | larsiusprime wrote:
           | Fun fact -- if we were to tax non-produced assets like land
           | -- which nobody made, and the value of which is created by
           | its neighbors and surrounding community rather than its owner
           | -- then we could LOWER taxes on things like income and sales.
           | So we could make transit pay for itself by taxing land
           | values, instead of bankrupting the city with unaffordable
           | boondoggles through bond initiatives and income and sales
           | taxes, all of which are drags on the economy in one way or
           | another.
        
             | RajT88 wrote:
             | Some places have extremely low property taxes.
             | 
             | The combination of low tax rate and low property values is
             | the sweet spot for people on a budget (example: A nearly-
             | retired uncle of mine just moved to Alabama):
             | 
             | https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/property-taxes-by-
             | state
             | 
             | If you're wondering if my wife and I are periodically
             | looking at the economics of living in Hawaii for
             | retirement, we sure as hell are. =)
        
             | ejb999 wrote:
             | I don't know where you live, but I have never lived any
             | place (all in the USA) that doesn't tax land already.
             | 
             | I for one enjoy having open spaces that are not developed -
             | raising taxes on vacant land so high, and thus, force the
             | owners to sell to someone who will develop it seems like a
             | really bad idea.
             | 
             | Trees and open space provide a lot of value to everyone -
             | those that live nearby, even if they don't own it, and to
             | everyone that likes to breath fresh air.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | It's not about undeveloped land. It's about low value
               | assets that take up a lot of space such as surface level
               | parking lots or single level big box stores. The more of
               | that stuff you condense into the same space the less
               | traffic you have because everything is closer together
               | and the more viable mass transit becomes.
               | 
               | Not everything needs to be a mega city, but sprawl has
               | massive externalities.
        
               | Dracophoenix wrote:
               | Who gets to determine what that low value is? Where do
               | they get the numbers from?
        
               | larsiusprime wrote:
               | > I don't know where you live, but I have never lived any
               | place (all in the USA) that doesn't tax land already.
               | 
               | The issue is that we tax the land and the buildings
               | together. We should tax only the land. And we're often
               | not taxing it enough.
               | 
               | > I for one enjoy having open spaces that are not
               | developed
               | 
               | I enjoy those spaces too! You know what we have right
               | now? SPRAWL. For miles in every direction. Pavement that
               | gobbles up more and more greenfield spaces, for low-
               | density, low-value uses. Outlying wilderness land is not
               | very valuable, but land in urban centers is very
               | valuable. Because we don't tax that land appropriately,
               | we just encourage people to sprawl out further and
               | further, and because we tax buildings, we discourage
               | people from building densely. This leads to more land
               | consumption and less of the open undeveloped space you
               | like.
               | 
               | Those trees you love? They're being cut down to make way
               | for parking lots and strip malls and self-storage units.
               | Really wasteful uses of land. Denser building would make
               | it so demand for housing, commerce, and amenities are
               | fulfilled on a much smaller footprint.
               | 
               | If we taxed land appropriately, we would have way more
               | undeveloped land, and more appropriate density in the
               | city, and you wouldn't have to commute nearly as far to
               | get to the wilderness.
        
             | ROTMetro wrote:
             | Aren't the surrounding owners the surrounding community? So
             | aren't owners creating the value in your example?
        
               | larsiusprime wrote:
               | Yes! The entire community together actually, not just the
               | immediately nearby neighbors. Land in the heart of New
               | York is valuable because it's in the heart of New York,
               | one of the most valuable cities in the world, a feat
               | achieved by many more people than just the 10 land owners
               | surrounding that particular parcel.
        
             | newaccount2021 wrote:
        
         | a_square_peg wrote:
         | This is correct - I think it's called R+P (Rail + Property).
         | The government doesn't pay for the project at all and grants
         | exclusive development right to the transit operator, which in
         | case for Hong Kong is MTR. They then negotiate revenue sharing
         | with commercial and residential developers on rent etc.
         | 
         | This works well and these transit operators make more money
         | from real estate (about 2/3) than transit fare (about 1/3). The
         | tricky thing (other than population density) is that the
         | developer will have to assume the risk of the revenue forecast
         | not panning out. I doubt that any transit operators in North
         | America would be willing to do this.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | It is worth noting that the HK model only works because of
           | artificially high land prices. Virtually all land in Hong
           | Kong is leasehold and the government uses lease revenues to
           | keep taxes low.
           | 
           | Hong Kong's projects are also not immune to cost issues. Per
           | km they have the same cost issues described in the article.
           | Recent projects have had massive cost blowouts, and even
           | before then scope was dropped from projects to save money.
           | The recent Sha Tin to Central Link dropped a station in
           | Central to save money, and the new stations were only built
           | to handle 9 cars instead of the rest of the line's 12 cars to
           | save money.
        
         | rnk wrote:
         | We do tax them, but it's indirect, because property taxes go
         | up. You could do it by say taking 25% of increased property
         | taxes and remitting them to transit costs. That's an
         | interesting idea I never heard of before.
        
           | 0_____0 wrote:
           | In California this is broken -- property taxes are assessed
           | using the price when last sold, plus a 2% annual increase.
           | Any property in California that hasn't changed hands recently
           | is likely very under-taxed. Basically it amounts to a subsidy
           | for sitting on property and not developing it.
        
             | ROTMetro wrote:
             | Basically it amounts to a protection to people so that they
             | won't be forced to sell their home just because property
             | values go up, something that happened quite often before
             | prop 13 went into effect. But hey, let's kick out people
             | from their homes, that they can afford, because they can't
             | afford to pay the Sheriff of Nottingham when he comes to
             | collect his taxes.
        
               | EricDeb wrote:
               | I mean it's similar to rent going up.. you could afford
               | it before you can't afford it now sorry
        
               | 0_____0 wrote:
               | That reasoning is how it was sold to the Californian
               | voter in the 70s during the era of popular rebellion
               | against taxes. The writers and underwriters of that
               | ballot initiative knew what they were doing, keeping
               | grandma in her house was merely a pretext.
               | 
               | The average homeowner benefits directly from Prop 13 and
               | fails to see how it has impacted other aspects of their
               | life.
               | 
               | The implications for the municipal governments have been
               | disastrous. Municipal tax inflows went from being ~95%
               | property taxes to being closer to 40% in the present day.
               | The rest of the income comes from new taxes and fees
               | invented to fill the gaps.
               | 
               | Prop 13 is a major (but not sole) reason why CA has
               | underbuilt housing for the last four decades. The tax
               | assessed has no relation to the value of the land it sits
               | on, so the trend is to underuse and underdevelop land. If
               | your house is taxed at $1500 a year and keeps
               | appreciating, why sell? Have that 4br/2ba to yourself, or
               | rent it out and make a net gain of $60,000/yr. Either way
               | it makes no sense to sell the property and allow it to be
               | redeveloped into something that could house 10x the
               | people.
               | 
               | I know property owners who bought for $40k in Berkeley
               | and are now sitting on 2.4MM$ in value, doing the minimum
               | in repairs while renting the unit for $6k/mo. This is not
               | unusual. These people do not deserve your pity, and they
               | do not deserve a massive systemic wealth transfer in
               | their direction.
               | 
               | Unfortunately I think the dysfunction in California will
               | have to reach catastrophic levels before Prop 13 repeal
               | becomes politically^Wemotionally feasible for CA voters.
               | The knock-on effects of P13 are too far removed from the
               | average voter -- most won't connect increased crime,
               | failing schools and public services, increased cost of
               | living all the way back to it.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Even if the "old lady gets kicked out" were a major
               | issue, you could at least repeal Prop 13 for commercial
               | properties, and implement other "prevent from being
               | kicked out" rules.
               | 
               | But Prop 13 will never change, it's a political 3rd rail
               | now.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | No, I believe the way it's done in Asian countries is that
           | public transportation is run by (usually) private companies
           | that have the right to develop the land. Thus the incentive
           | is to put things on top of transit which align with what
           | commuters need. In Singapore, for example the pad around
           | every station typically has a hawker stand (food court),
           | drugstore, supermarket, which are the things you might need
           | on your way home.
        
             | NegativeLatency wrote:
             | The US used to work like this, developers would build
             | streetcars to connect suburbs of cities and make it
             | profitable to sell lots to build houses on.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetcar_suburb
             | 
             | I live in one but unfortunately there's no streetcar
             | anymore.
        
             | nephanth wrote:
             | Tokyo works that way. Here's a good article I read about
             | it: https://pmpstrategy.com/en/insights/publications/item/7
             | 25-to...
             | 
             | They do, however, mention some bad externalities at the end
        
           | thescriptkiddie wrote:
           | This exists, it is called tax increment financing.
        
         | twelvechairs wrote:
         | > taxing the uplift in land values
         | 
         | Need to be clear on this as theres a lot of bad assumptions
         | below
         | 
         | The best answer is not a standard 'tax' but a payment that is
         | required when land surrounding new transit is redeveloped to
         | higher density. This is the clearest, cleanest solution.
         | Homeowners dont have to pay if they stay and developers just
         | factor the cost in when buying property which removes the
         | problem of money just ending up with existing landowners when
         | they sell the land.
         | 
         | This idea has been around for a long time but not widely
         | implemented in the west yet because the politics is hard.
         | Whichever country does it first will have a massive head start
         | for the future imo
        
           | michael_vo wrote:
           | The director of the Switzerland rail real estate told me they
           | went around the world studying existing systems and copied
           | the Japanese way of building stations.
           | 
           | The government owned the stations and leased retail spaces
           | out to businesses in a repeatable templated way. Their goal
           | was for users to never have to leave the station on their way
           | to and from work. So they standardized metro/train stations
           | to have a grocery store, dry cleaning, etc. This was highly
           | profitable and successful.
           | 
           | A lot of rail systems focus on the costs but don't think
           | about how to design it so that humans want to use rail.
        
           | mjmahone17 wrote:
           | Isn't this a disincentive to densifying the land? It seems
           | like the tax should occur at least on any sale, not just when
           | redevelopment happens.
           | 
           | A single family home near transit is far more valuable than a
           | single family home away from transit. There's no reason
           | existing homeowners should capture all of the value of that
           | increase when they've paid nothing and done no work to make
           | it happen.
        
             | throwaway22032 wrote:
             | There are holes regardless.
             | 
             | Imagine a railway line/station is built 10 mins walk from
             | me.
             | 
             | I'm not interested in the railway line. So I rent out my
             | home and use the proceeds to buy or rent a larger one in a
             | different location without said railway line.
             | 
             | Trying to capture that value I think would result in some
             | sort of weird rent control / rent tax central planning
             | nightmare that would have pretty bad side effects. It'd
             | probably end up looking a bit like California's Prop 13(?)
             | where people just stay put.
        
               | cheriot wrote:
               | I'll be the LVT guy
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax
        
         | baby wrote:
         | That is if the land there actually wants the traffic and is
         | ready to adapt. Here in SF it feels like no one wants public
         | transport to get to them, and they definitely don't want to
         | build housing or reserve ground units for shops and restaurants
        
           | jxf wrote:
           | In NYC, all the places along the new Second Avenue line shot
           | up immediately once it looked like construction was beginning
           | again, and shot up even more once it opened.
        
           | mikysco wrote:
           | I feel like SF residents' aversion to new transit projects is
           | unfortunate but totally reasonable... walk anywhere in SF
           | near a BART (subway) stop and you face open drug use, trash,
           | and other problems nobody wants in the neighborhood they call
           | home. It's not like these are intractable problems - other
           | major cities manage to keep their subway stops and
           | surrounding areas clean & pleasant to use.
           | 
           | The case against BART expansion is made by the experience &
           | externalities of existing BART.
        
             | larsiusprime wrote:
             | I would posit that if the city had a direct interest in the
             | land value immediately surrounding the transit station --
             | as is the case in many successful Asian transit projects --
             | they would have a much stronger incentive to make that land
             | value go up, by making it cleaner and safer and more well
             | maintained.
        
             | andbberger wrote:
             | the case against BART expansion is that the urban core is
             | underserved, as a direct result of BART hoovering up all
             | transit funding and available ROWs
             | 
             | what you're describing is a you problem. SF residents who
             | are well served by transit overwhelming favor transit
             | expansion, it's the residents who are underserved (sunset,
             | outer richmond) who oppose
        
             | Karrot_Kream wrote:
             | Only Civic Center and 16th Mission are like this. 24th can
             | be a bit gross, but not always. The rest of the system is
             | fairly clean. The problem is that everyone judges the BART
             | by its worst stations but nobody decides whether or not to
             | drive by the horror of a car crash, and that's a cultural
             | issue. Americans culturally erase car trauma but amplify
             | transit trauma.
        
               | VancouverMan wrote:
               | It's reasonable to judge a transit system based on its
               | worst stations. If those happen to be the stations that a
               | traveler will be using, then what's going on at those
               | stations will have a significant impact on that
               | traveler's experience.
        
               | Karrot_Kream wrote:
               | Sure but those stations generally don't have "nice folks"
               | (hate using that term, given that I grew up in an area
               | that would be avoided by these nice folks, but most on HN
               | are generationally upper-middle class so) living near
               | them. 16th and Mission is the exception because of the
               | rapidly gentrified Valencia street, but Civic Center is
               | very much not where upper-middle class folks live. The
               | BART station nearest to me is clean and nice. Proximity
               | to BART generally increases property values and rents.
        
             | WalterSear wrote:
             | This just isn't the case.
             | 
             | In my daily experience, BART station QoL issues reflect the
             | neighbourhoods they are in.
        
             | runarberg wrote:
             | I'm curious, have you waked near a BART station recently?
             | If so, which?
             | 
             | If you go to an average BART station, say, Balboa Park, or
             | North Berkley they are completely fine, not noticeable
             | different then other areas in the same neighborhood. If you
             | go to a newer stations (say Dublin / Pleasanton) this is
             | even less so.
             | 
             | And for that matter I'm not sure your parent is actually
             | providing any correct insights. I'm not aware of much
             | backlash from immediate residents against new transit
             | projects in their neighborhood (such as the muni
             | realignment near SF state or the Van Ness BRT lane).
        
             | diebeforei485 wrote:
             | It's pretty simple - don't tolerate this sort of behavior
             | around public transit stations. Transit riders deserve a
             | safe and clean commute. In the absence of that, they'll
             | retreat to the safe clean cocoon of their cars.
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | > It's pretty simple - don't tolerate this sort of
               | behavior around public transit stations
               | 
               | (I hope it's not seen as outrageous to suggest this, but)
               | perhaps one shouldn't tolerate this sort of behavior
               | anywhere, ever?
               | 
               |  _Everyone_ deserves safe and clean public spaces.
        
               | afarrell wrote:
               | > Everyone deserves safe and clean public spaces.
               | 
               | There is a cost to this and that cost includes the
               | coercive use of force to prevent that behavior.
        
               | hnov wrote:
               | Well the people who smoke fent off of a piece of foil
               | aren't going to disappear so you have to put them
               | somewhere. If you were to put them somewhere in Pac
               | Heights where the residents actively work against public
               | transit that'd displease them, so they go where the
               | community is less civically engaged and less powerful,
               | like next to public transit. In effect there's a feedback
               | loop where the area next to BART is only going to get
               | grimier and Pac Heights are going to get NIMBYer.
        
               | mikysco wrote:
               | You're correct, of course, but the public good from
               | improving the safety/cleanliness of shared infrastructure
               | like transit has a much higher ROI than your "average"
               | public space. Both have societal good but improving
               | transit stops (especially rail) deserves higher priority
               | than your average sidewalk
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | Our eldest (just turned 13 :eek:) walks down an "average
               | sidewalk" to the railway station, rides a train (alone)
               | into town, and walks an "average sidewalk" to his school,
               | and back. Every weekday. He commented on drunks hanging
               | around the (in-town) station in the late afternoon just a
               | few days ago.
               | 
               |  _Everywhere_ should be safe.
        
               | rhaway84773 wrote:
               | No one thinks "hey every place should not be safe".
               | That's obviously what everyone wants. However, given that
               | in practice we have huge swathes of places that are in
               | bad condition you need to start by prioritizing. And it
               | obviously makes a lot of sense to prioritize a public
               | transit station, which not only has much higher usage
               | than a random sidewalk, and is far easier and cheaper to
               | keep safe because it has a much more limited geographic
               | footprint and the major sections are not wide open easily
               | accessible spaces but are controlled by gates that
               | require tickets, than it is to do a wide open sidewalk.
               | 
               | It obviously makes sense to start with the space that
               | gives you the most return for the lowest cost and that
               | would be any public space that has the highest usage and
               | density, such as public transit stations.
               | 
               | Even better, imposing safety in those transit stations
               | will also have a significant effect in improving safety
               | through the length of the actual BART train ride because
               | access to the train is limited to the few stations.
               | 
               | This is not true of a random sidewalk.
        
             | inamberclad wrote:
             | Except most BART stations are fine. Even 24th and Mission,
             | the most notorious, is actually really not that bad. Once
             | people use it, they'll hate it less. However, most people
             | will steer clear for their entire lives.
        
               | dpe82 wrote:
               | We must not use the same 24th and Mission BART stop. IMHO
               | 24th and 16th stops are _disgusting_. I use them both
               | often but I 'm never happy to.
        
               | pianoben wrote:
               | Man, that's not even _remotely_ close to my experience. I
               | used that station (and 16th st) regularly and saw:
               | 
               | - frequent drug use - frequent drug sales - congested and
               | filthy station entrances/exits - zonked out naked dudes
               | starting fights on the platform (yes more than once or
               | twice) - liquid poop on station stairs
               | 
               | I wish I was exaggerating but... this is just how it is
               | around those stations.
        
               | dopeboy wrote:
               | Depends on your definition of bad. Urine smells, homeless
               | people, and knowledge that muggings typically happen
               | around that area?
               | 
               | I'd call that bad. I'm with you - we need more public
               | transit in the bay. But there's a huge swath of people
               | where that Bart experience just isn't going to work.
        
             | hodgesrm wrote:
             | > walk anywhere in SF near a BART (subway) stop and you
             | face open drug use, trash, and other problems nobody wants
             | in the neighborhood they call home.
             | 
             | Is there any evidence these problems are actually related
             | to BART? The Tenderloin district has equally bad or worse
             | sections away from the Civic Center station. Market Street
             | as a whole below Castro has had serious issues for decades.
        
       | renewiltord wrote:
       | It's simple, right? If you can make $x and your apparent return
       | is $y, I will take as much of your surplus $y-$x as I can. To
       | make it acceptable, I will use other words, but I'm really just
       | trying to capture your surplus and I will get it because you will
       | tell people that $y is much greater than $Y (these true return)
       | because you must inflate $y by some amount to represent the gain
       | to you $y-$Y politically. An exploitable principal-agent
       | situation.
       | 
       | Now, both you and I, without overt collaboration will align and
       | help us both at the cost of the other guy who is paying for the
       | whole thing. We can sucker him a little, because he's a gormless
       | fool and his friends are useful idiots who will join in the
       | deception.
        
       | thetli8 wrote:
       | not to make this political but this is more political than not.
       | people vocally want certain things (eg. prevailing wages) more
       | than they want efficient costs so there's little incentive to
       | make things cheaper.
       | 
       | a good case is always california's railway vs. florida's
       | brightline. the differences are stark:
       | 
       | - $1B per mile vs. <$20M per mile [1]
       | 
       | - prevailing wages vs. market wages
       | 
       | - politics and nimby-ism vs. privatized project
       | 
       | - delayed to maybe 2030 vs. opening 2023
       | 
       | [1] https://fee.org/articles/florida-company-shows-california-
       | ho...
        
         | artificial wrote:
         | The French company SNCF that originally was helping California
         | with the high speed rail left in 2011 because the state wasn't
         | listening to it's recommendations. They build a high speed rail
         | in Morocco which took 7 years to complete and launched in 2018.
         | They left saying that California is politically dysfunctional.
         | https://www.yahoo.com/news/company-hoping-help-california-hi...
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | I expect the Moroccan project was a bit easier with respect
           | to right if way tho.
           | 
           | Then again the LGV Est took a similar time per distance (took
           | 12% longer but covers 25% more distance).
           | 
           | Then then again, the LGV est was largely in the "empty
           | diagonal"...
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | The SF area already has rail corridors that ran from all
             | major cities (San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, Silicon
             | Valley, Santa Cruz, etc) to Los Angeles. Most of that
             | project is over farm land, where right of way / imminent
             | domain should be straightforward.
             | 
             | Instead, we get the redundant Bart to San Jose (Amtrak has
             | been continuously providing that route for a century or
             | something.), and SF to SFO (caltrain covers that already).
             | 
             | They need to pick one rail technology and move the entire
             | region to it, then dictate the legacy systems operate in a
             | unified way (allowing regional, independent rail
             | authorities to completely override city councils,
             | sacramento and DC), with the understanding that they will
             | be fired if the transition to a unified system takes more
             | than 5-10 years.
             | 
             | Instead, they are doing the exact opposite of everything I
             | just recommended, and all the systems are falling into
             | disrepair.
        
               | usaar333 wrote:
               | Bart to SFO provided a valuable connection from Western
               | SF/Daly City to Caltrain/SFO. It also provides the actual
               | only connection between Caltrain and BART, giving better
               | connectivity to the East Bay.
        
         | foota wrote:
         | That rail line is half the speed and built in one of the
         | flattest parts of the country?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pkaye wrote:
         | Is the Brightline also high speed rail?
        
         | UniverseHacker wrote:
         | Brightline is basically a conventional (slow) train, whereas
         | the CA project goes 2-3x as fast... totally different design
         | constraints. Amtrak in California is already as fast as the
         | Brightline.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | Brightline goes exceptionally faster than the CA line, _right
           | now_.
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | Is the current speed differential just because of the rock
             | slides?
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | No, it's because Brightline exists and CA HSR doesn't,
               | yet. So the speed is 125 mph to zero.
        
             | UniverseHacker wrote:
             | Right now it looks like the current top speed of Brightline
             | is the same as most Amtrak lines in California (79mph).
             | Brightline claims in the future it will have speeds up to
             | 125mph. Conventional Amtrak trains already can go 110mph on
             | sections of high quality track, and do in some places in
             | the USA.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | True, but the only place Amtrak gets close to that I know
               | of in California is through Camp Pendleton, and there it
               | maxes out at 90.
               | 
               | A "bright line" style upgrade to the SAN-LAX route would
               | have been entirely worth it, and they're struggling along
               | with it, but at pennies compared to what has been spent
               | on HSR so far.
        
           | willyt wrote:
           | Paris-Bordeaux was EUR15m per mile for electrified 200mph
           | capable line. $20m / mile doesn't sound amazing for a non
           | electrified line that operates at 79mph now and might have
           | sections that operate at 125mph in the future.
        
             | eigen wrote:
             | > Paris-Bordeaux was EUR15m per mile for electrified 200mph
             | capable line.
             | 
             | is that the LGV Sud Europe Atlantique between Tours and
             | Bordeaux that opened in 2017? looks like thats EUR9B for
             | 188 miles new track or EUR47M per mile.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGV_Sud_Europe_Atlantique
             | 
             | > The consortium invested EUR3.8 billion, French
             | government, local authorities and the European Union paid
             | EUR3 billion and EUR1 billion was contributed by SNCF
             | Reseau (subsidiary of SNCF). Another EUR1.2 billion was
             | spent by SNCF Reseau on the construction of interconnecting
             | lines, control centres, capacity enhancements at Bordeaux
             | and remodelling the track layout at Gare Montparnasse.
        
         | atoav wrote:
         | Without even looking into it I am going to say huge price
         | differences between different rail projects are something I
         | _really_ would expect to see. Building, planning and permitting
         | a meter of track in a dense urban center is going to cost
         | magnitudes more than building the same track with the same
         | people through a more rural route even if it was done by the
         | same people in the same system and state.
         | 
         | That aside the trains might run through different terrain and
         | might have to run at different speeds. Building a dirt path
         | through a flat desert is surely more cheap per meter than
         | building a tunnel through a mountain.
         | 
         | So to compare such projects to each other in way that you can
         | draw meaningful insights from the comparison means you have to
         | ganular data science and compare how much of each track is
         | going through which type of environment.
         | 
         | I am not saying your point is not valid, but just comparing the
         | final numbers is not going to cut it here.
        
         | thescriptkiddie wrote:
         | This certainly is a political issue, but privatization isn't
         | the solution, it is the problem. US governments at all levels
         | are so ideologically opposed to the idea of doing anything in-
         | house that they overpay for consultants and contractors to do
         | even the most basic things.
        
         | blamazon wrote:
         | Although I'm a fan, Brightline also leveraged a bunch of
         | existing rail, whereas the California project is almost
         | entirely new right of way. That makes it hard to compare the
         | projects apples to apples in my eyes. It seems intuitive that
         | building a new rail line from scratch is going to cost more and
         | take longer than building off an existing rail line.
         | 
         | I believe this is also the core of why Brightline has so many
         | level crossings, and thus accident casualties as Floridians
         | become accustomed to at-grade high speed trains. California
         | high speed rail probably won't ever have to reckon with that
         | grim issue, as it's been engineered out.
        
         | pencilguin wrote:
         | It is not about legitimate costs. It is about legalized
         | corruption. Projects are super-expensive because the
         | overwhelming majority of money spent goes to line pockets
         | instead of building.
         | 
         | The US's innovation has been to make corruption wholly legal,
         | proof against indictment
        
         | pj_mukh wrote:
         | Other than government interference in the route planning, all
         | private projects seem to be susceptible to all the same issues
         | as government projects in North America. Like, NIMBY-ism
         | affects private projects too (see: all home construction).
         | 
         | Sidenote: California HSR is slated to travel at about twice the
         | speed as Brightline, I'm guessing that has some non-linear
         | ramifications on cost.
        
         | Grimburger wrote:
         | > people vocally want certain things (eg. prevailing wages)
         | more than they want efficient costs so there's little incentive
         | to make things cheaper
         | 
         | If you look the database they linked you'll see that there's no
         | correlation at all with GDP/capita and $/km of rail line built.
         | Some of the most efficient on costs are countries like Finland,
         | Korea, Spain, Switzerland, It's clearly not all about the
         | wages.
         | 
         | https://transitcosts.com/new-data/
        
         | sleepymoose wrote:
         | > $1B per mile vs. <$20M per mile
         | 
         | Once again, California inflating the national average to insane
         | proportions.
         | 
         | I understand that the issue you're speaking to is farther
         | reaching than just California, but I think we can all agree
         | that it's one of, if not the absolute worst offender.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | NYC second avenue subway is worse by far. CA almost looks
           | reasonable
        
         | mushbino wrote:
         | Labor costs are between 20-40% of the cost of construction. The
         | Florida brightline project uses existing rail. The california
         | project is all new rail and requires the purchase of land. It's
         | also worth noting that private sector contractors in CA know
         | how to game the bidding process and often politicians or their
         | families have stock or personal relations with the contractors.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | The California project didn't _have_ to be sold the way it
           | was - but that was the whole point, get the boondoggle
           | started.
           | 
           | They could have spend a fraction of the money on improving
           | the capital corridor and the Santa Barbara - San Diego
           | corridor instead, but that wasn't sexy enough.
        
             | MichaelZuo wrote:
             | A lot of posters are saying politics. Doesn't that imply it
             | did have to be sold in certain ways in order to get passed?
             | 
             | i.e. A modest version with a negligible risk of boondoggle
             | would likely never have gotten enough attention in
             | Sacramento to make it out of committee.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | It got sold that way because of CA's slightly weird
               | proposition system.
               | 
               | There's no real political _willpower_ for transit in
               | California as a state; it 's all located in some of the
               | cities, which are plodding along relatively slowly but
               | consistently (the San Diego Trolley is miles more than it
               | was 20 years ago).
        
           | thetli8 wrote:
           | you're right that labor is only a part of it. but part of the
           | reason why the CA project saw huge rises in costs is because
           | of project planning and scope increases in the planning --
           | both of which are politically driven.
           | 
           | part of the politically driven issues stem from NIMBY-ism but
           | the other (arguably more heinous) part is how the cities can
           | force the plan to be re-routed [1]. not only do costs rise
           | and opening dates delay, the hypothetical "high speed" nature
           | no longer rings true.
           | 
           | [1] https://youtu.be/S0dSm_ClcSw?t=129
        
             | runarberg wrote:
             | I don't understand, was there ever an option not to put a
             | stop in Palmdale? Skipping Palmdale would honestly be a
             | huge lack of vision. There are like 3-400,000 people that
             | live in the Palmdale / Lancaster area that would be in a
             | nice transit distance from that station. The current
             | Antelope Valley metrolink linke services like 6000 daily
             | commuters even though it takes like 2 hours. Shortening
             | this distance to like 20-30 minutes will surely increase
             | this number by a lot.
             | 
             | This is also the logical location for a connecting station
             | to a future train to Las Vegas.
             | 
             | Also this station will have passing tracks, so not every
             | train will stop there. Even if only 2-3 of every 10 trains
             | stop there, it will be a huge improvement to so many
             | people. Honestly, if they were to skip it, they would
             | probably realize that mistake and add it as an infill
             | station, which would be even more expensive.
             | 
             | I think the Palmdale station is kind of a non issue if you
             | compare it to true cost drivers, such as UP and the city of
             | Hanford, both of which have forced giant mega structures to
             | the project, structures that didn't need to be that large,
             | but were made to be just so that existing infrastructure
             | didn't need to be relocated with temporary disruptions.
        
               | thetli8 wrote:
               | if the goal is having high speed transportation while
               | minimizing cost burden to the taxpayer, palmdale and
               | other similar cities would have been skipped.
               | 
               | likewise, i'm not going to stop using LAX because it's in
               | Inglewood and not koreatown; i'll figure out how to make
               | the commute.
               | 
               | if CA really wanted to build this right without
               | succumbing to the pork granted to all these towns, CA
               | should have probably taken a more incremental approach
               | (eg. first build the cheapest, shortest-distance, and
               | most environmentally-friendly path. then, build secondary
               | rail systems that go through areas with high population
               | density.)
        
               | runarberg wrote:
               | I think CAHSR has been pretty explicit in what the goals
               | of the project are, and it includes servicing under-
               | served communities with jobs and high quality
               | infrastructure. So you might be attacking a straw-man
               | here, as minimizing cost and the speed of travel is only
               | one of many goals here.
               | 
               | But OK lets say that speed and cost was their only goals,
               | I'm actually not sure that the I-5 alignment straight to
               | Bakersfield would be any cheaper. In fact it might be
               | more expensive, as you would probably need to tunnel
               | under most of the Tejon pass. Such a long tunnel is much
               | more challenging--and hence expensive--then two shorter
               | tunnels under the San Gabriel mountains and the
               | Tehachapi. Now if you evaluate this with the benefits of
               | a Palmdale station, this becomes a no brainier.
               | 
               | Bear in mind that a similar situation arises in the
               | north, where there is an option of doing a very long and
               | expensive tunnel under the Pacheco pass, or take a slight
               | detour to do a cheaper Altamont tunnel. Here CAHSR
               | decided with the expensive option. Part of the decision
               | is probably because Altamont is already serviced with
               | good transit options, while areas south of San Jose,
               | don't. Also note that a Tejon Pass tunnel would probably
               | be even longer and much deeper then the Pacheco Pass
               | tunnels.
               | 
               | > likewise, i'm not going to stop using LAX because it's
               | in Inglewood and not koreatown; i'll figure out how to
               | make the commute.
               | 
               | I don't think this is comparable at all. If the CAHSR
               | would skip Palmdale, then people in the Antelope Valley
               | would be forced to go to either Burbank or Bakerfield.
               | For Burbank they can take the Metrolink, but it is
               | extremely slow and has limited runs. For Bakersfield no
               | mass transit option exists, you have to take a bus, and
               | it is also like 2 hours. Going from downtown LA to
               | Inglewood is simply not the same.
               | 
               | > CA should have probably taken a more incremental
               | approach
               | 
               | So we've moved the goalpost here a bit, but OK. I think
               | CAHSR actually agrees with you here. The first portion
               | with CASHR funding to open is going to be the Caltrain
               | electrification and modernization from San Jose to San
               | Francisco. This is the cheapest, shortest distance, most
               | environmentally-friendly path between two very large
               | densely populated urban centers. The only rivaling
               | corridor is probably LA to San Diego, but CAHSR probably
               | realized the impossibility to get funding for that in the
               | Obama era (as the Surfliner already exists; and the
               | extensive tunneling required would be really expensive).
               | After that the central valley is the easiest segment, so
               | that is where they began after Calmod.
        
           | themitigating wrote:
           | "It's also worth noting that private sector contractors in CA
           | know how to game the bidding process and often politicians or
           | their families have stock or personal relations with the
           | contractors."
           | 
           | This is something that only occurs in California?
           | 
           | FLORIDA CONTRACTS GO TO COMPANIES THAT FLOODED RON DESANTIS
           | CAMPAIGN FUND
           | 
           | https://theintercept.com/2022/09/27/florida-ron-desantis-
           | cam...
        
       | anonyme-honteux wrote:
       | Would it be wrong to say that the US has lost the engineering
       | skills necessary to build this kind of big projects?
       | 
       | During World War II the US was an mind blowingly efficient
       | juggernaut of public projects, but it seems that it has lost is
       | way, and that today its engineering culture lags way behind
       | countries like Japan, Germany, France, Spain, ...
       | 
       | You can only reap what you sow in term of engineering skills.
       | 
       | The best minds in the US are focused on showing marginally more
       | ads, wall street , and lots of other things that pay very well,
       | but not big engineering works.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | twobitshifter wrote:
         | The engineering knowledge is there and growing, and spans
         | borders. Like all construction in the states, the people to
         | construct things are lacking, but that's not the fundamental
         | cost increase.
         | 
         | Here's a few things I think are to blame (some as mentioned in
         | the article and some of my own.)
         | 
         | - Desire to minimally disrupt others, this extends beyond rail
         | to other projects, look at the big dig in Boston.
         | 
         | - Planning requirements re ISTEA act, have put engineering in a
         | back seat to local concerns.
         | 
         | - Lack of domestic production/ buy america - leads to paying
         | higher prices and big startup costs on every project
         | 
         | - No standardization of components. Almost every rail vehicle
         | in the US ends up different. Every station is engineered from
         | the start. 150 years ago, stations would come in on a train and
         | be stood up to all look the same. England learned this late
         | with crossrail.
         | 
         | - Political desire and requirements to minimize and mitigate
         | impacts of globally net beneficial projects. Elevated trains
         | are a nonstarter in most cities. If you can't grade separate
         | more trains mean more delays to cars, which means excuses for
         | ambulances saving lives can be used.
        
         | kortilla wrote:
         | >Would it be wrong to say that the US has lost the engineering
         | skills necessary to build this kind of big projects?
         | 
         | Yes, that's not the issue. The US still has many of the best
         | engineering schools in the world and projects very rarely fail
         | in the US because engineers screwed up and couldn't handle it.
         | 
         | The problem is that the government has lost the backbone to
         | actually disrupt people's lives in the ways necessary to do
         | large scale projects.
         | 
         | The California rail is not difficult, but it is quagmired in
         | NIMBYism and political trading. The chosen route is not about
         | efficiency or anything engineering related, it's about
         | scratching the right backs.
         | 
         | >The best minds in the US are focused on showing marginally
         | more ads, wall street , and lots of other things that pay very
         | well, but not big engineering works.
         | 
         | Because big engineering projects don't ever get greenlit. There
         | has never been a case where we wanted to build mass
         | infrastructure, got all of the approvals, and then went,
         | "whoops, nobody can engineer this".
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Engineering is the easy part.
         | 
         | The political and regulatory issues are much harder.
        
         | thescriptkiddie wrote:
         | This is correct, particularly for rail projects, consultants
         | and contractors have to be hired from overseas because there
         | are very few Americans who can do the work.
        
         | HDThoreaun wrote:
         | I really think this is pretty much solely about politics. The
         | US has plenty of engineering success in the private sector, but
         | public sector projects are weighed down by corruption,
         | environmental requirements, community support requirements,
         | overpaid union wage requirements. Everyone wants a piece of the
         | pie.
        
           | xxpor wrote:
           | Please read the actual article. It's much more complicated
           | than that. France has incredibly strong unions, and yet their
           | costs are a fraction of the US's.
        
             | anonyme-honteux wrote:
             | Germany has unions four time stronger than France and it
             | has no issue building stuff.
             | 
             | Union bashing is dumb story telling to keep the taxes of
             | billionaires low.
        
               | dev_daftly wrote:
               | The version of unions in the US is completely different
               | than in most countries.
        
               | anonyme-honteux wrote:
               | So what do you think that the US plutocrats would welcome
               | German style strong unions efficient at negociating
               | higher salaries?
        
               | masklinn wrote:
               | > it has no issue building stuff.
               | 
               | Berlin airport.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | "Unions" are a generic term, much like "clergy" is.
               | 
               | Generalizations about "clergy" do not make much sense if
               | you want to cover Iranian Ayatollahs and Buryat Lamas at
               | the same time. Same about unions. The context changes
               | across the globe.
        
             | HDThoreaun wrote:
             | I did. My conclusion is that the issue is over
             | politicization as I said. Every interested party wants a
             | piece of the pie, that includes unions, but it also
             | includes everyone else in a 100 mile radius.
        
               | anonyme-honteux wrote:
               | I think your error here is that you assume that politics
               | do not exist everywhere people are involved.
               | 
               | A tram recently got built where my parents live near
               | Paris. They had to involve something like 15 cities, 3
               | departments, one region, the French state, and the
               | european union. That was lots of people who wanted to
               | have their way. It slowed things down. But it got built
               | anyway and now it works.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | I take "over politicized" to refer to what the article
               | was saying about how many of the various departments are
               | elected, and how that causes delay.
               | 
               | The US finds it hard to delegate _trust_ on these things,
               | and parties throw up objections over and over again,
               | either because they want to kill the projector because
               | they want to cover their ass from those that want to kill
               | it.
        
         | xxpor wrote:
         | Why be a civil engineer with all of the liability and hard
         | stuff to learn, and earn $35k coming out of school, when you
         | could be CS grad and earn $150k, with way less stress?
        
           | kortilla wrote:
           | >and earn $35k coming out of school, when you could be CS
           | grad and earn $150k, with way less stress?
           | 
           | First, $35k is made up, that's what someone working full time
           | at In-N-Out now makes.
           | 
           | Second, being an entry level civil engineer is not more
           | stressful than working in CS. You bear no responsibility and
           | don't do any physical labor. Why is that stressful?
        
           | tr33house wrote:
           | As someone who got both degrees from a pretty prestigious US
           | university, this was my reasoning too. I haven't worked a day
           | in Civil Eng since graduation and I don't regret it one bit
        
           | anonyme-honteux wrote:
           | Yes, exactly. US engineers are obviously not dumber than the
           | ones from other countries, they are just doing other kind of
           | work.
        
             | onos wrote:
             | If that's the point then it seems we are making the right
             | decisions. Dominance in one at the cost of another,
             | possibly less important area.
        
               | anonyme-honteux wrote:
               | I don't disagree to be honest because there are plenty of
               | US cities where you can't do much in terms of urbanism
               | even if you had the skills to build. They were built at
               | the wrong era, for cars. They are just not dense enough.
        
           | jakesgates wrote:
           | I'm sorry $35K? Any source to show that rate? In small-town
           | midwest U.S. the starting rate is at least $60k, so I'd be
           | shocked to see it at anywhere near $35k anywhere in the U.S.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | The US can build massive projects, and many of the big projects
         | you hear about world-wide are designed and built by US
         | companies.
         | 
         | We can even do it _quickly_ if we need to:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekUROM87vTA
         | 
         | We just rarely need or want to.
        
         | lamy wrote:
         | I work on transit projects primarily on the west coast. My
         | experience has been that 50% or more of the engineers were from
         | outside the United States. While I don't disagree that the
         | engineering skills are hard to find within local labor pools,
         | plenty of experienced individuals are willing to relocate.
        
         | dsfyu404ed wrote:
         | It's lost the administrative and political skills.
         | 
         | Engineering is easier than ever.
        
       | calvinmorrison wrote:
       | because absolute power corrupts absolutely.
       | 
       | More at 11
        
         | creato wrote:
         | In the US it seems like most problems with big projects are due
         | to responsibility being diffuse across many political groups,
         | and just about anyone with a lawyer has near veto power over
         | almost any project. How is that absolute power?
         | 
         | Blind pithy cynicism is unhelpful.
        
         | jonny_eh wrote:
         | Problem solved, thanks!
        
         | MuffinFlavored wrote:
         | What I find interesting about this "narrative" is... where is
         | the specifics/proof?
         | 
         | It feels like "something" (the media?) wants us to think that
         | it isn't just a few bad apples ruining the pie. It's the entire
         | pie. It's unfixable.
         | 
         | What's also interesting is... say you do flag someone/something
         | down as an example of corruption. Their side of the story is
         | that they aren't doing anything wrong.
         | 
         | What/where is the truth?
        
         | phillipcarter wrote:
         | And the transit projects across the globe that don't cost so
         | much?
        
           | hunterb123 wrote:
           | that proves their point does it not?
           | 
           | some transit costs $5m per mile, some transit is $1b per
           | mile, find the corrupt one.
           | 
           | anytime you have a large spigot of taxpayer money you'll have
           | people in charge trying to funnel it away using contractors,
           | lobbyists, etc.
        
       | MPSimmons wrote:
       | I would guess that it has to do with the legal need to pay people
       | fairly for their land that the transit needs to acquire.
        
       | Consultant32452 wrote:
       | The most important thing to understand is transit projects in the
       | US are so costly on purpose. You can't fix anything until you fix
       | the on purpose. If you manage to squeeze in one spot, new costs
       | will pop up in another spot. It won't change until projects are
       | cost efficient on purpose.
        
       | glasss wrote:
       | I enjoyed the blog post and discussion around a very similar
       | topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31890048
        
       | Manuel_D wrote:
       | Better title: "why are US urban rail projects so costly?"
       | 
       | The subject is way more niche than "transit". A big part of it is
       | economies of scale. Europe, and other developed parts of the
       | world also built a lot more urban passenger rail per mile.
       | 
       | Now compare the cost of US freight rail - something the US does
       | build and operate at scale - and it's much more competitive.
       | Costs are often under $1M a mile, depending on factors like load,
       | ground leveling, etc.
       | 
       | Countries are better at the types of transit they build the most,
       | and the US doesn't use a lot of urban light rail.
        
         | thescriptkiddie wrote:
         | Rail is particularly expensive to build in the US because of
         | the lack of living experience and economies of scale, but all
         | construction projects from roads to housing are more expensive
         | in the US than in other comparable nations.
        
         | dclowd9901 wrote:
         | I buy this. Even from a pure equipment allocation standpoint it
         | would be more difficult for a particular state or region to
         | spin up a job, let alone somewhere that has literally no
         | existing rail infra to speak of.
         | 
         | In the article, they mention that Italy has something like a
         | SWAT team of rail planning and designing consultants at the
         | national level that swoop in on local projects and offer
         | guidance. That's just not something you get to unless you have
         | a preponderance of rail projects under your belt.
        
           | beezlebroxxxxxx wrote:
           | Hearing about an Italian SWAT team for rail development just
           | makes me think: "hire them."
           | 
           | I wonder if it would be cheaper to just hire all of the
           | talent, and then just buy Italian rail components if they are
           | available and work. That is essentially what the tech
           | industry in the US does now anyway.
           | 
           | I guess certain "Buy American" protections get in the way of
           | that, for good and bad reasons; but it's annoying that one
           | solution is basically touching the third rail (sorry couldn't
           | resist the train joke) in the country. Hire or import talent
           | from abroad and learn from them, America's whole industrial
           | history is basically a loop of that over time.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | California HSR basically did that, and the (French?)
             | company left in a huff after a few years saying the working
             | conditions were untenable.
             | 
             | Much of our existing light rail rolling stock is European
             | companies anyway - they make a deal to build a factory in
             | the US to get the bid, usually.
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_S700_and_S70
        
       | nimbius wrote:
       | in the case of Los Angeles its a combination of factors hobbling
       | rail at any level. First, NIMBY suits every now and then that
       | threaten minor stretches of the project and require significant
       | funds to combat, or restructuring the program entirely so as to
       | avoid the town in question. this added YEARS to the purple line
       | expansion in LA and ensured it could not go through Beverly Hills
       | or Westwood. Second, deliberate political boondoggling from
       | Republicans ideologically opposed to any public transit, mass or
       | otherwise. They know they cant defund or sanction it, so they get
       | elected on platforms to "form a committee" or put a measure on
       | the ballots to "fund an investigation and research" into things
       | like delays or budgets for the program, which inevitably saps
       | resources and time from the program and slows things down.
       | 
       | IMO its largely NIMBYS though. California in particular has a
       | bold cadre of arrogant holdouts for practically ANY expansion
       | project. pull up google maps and look at the 710 freeway. Notice
       | anything? yep, it stops deliberately before it gets to Pasadena.
       | this lawsuit lasted nearly a _decade_ and forced the city to give
       | up entirely on the project, ending it right around el sereno and
       | safely away from rich people.
       | 
       | say what you will about communism, but the central planning
       | committees get things done.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | People forget that we won WWII thanks to a centrally planned
         | economy
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Central planning is great for big things. It is all the
           | little things that are hard to get right
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | I'd argue warplanning is about getting all the little
             | things right
        
         | RadixDLT wrote:
         | communists get things done but the shoddy quality and
         | architecture is more costly than you think,
         | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/53-dead-china-building-co...
        
       | kumarski wrote:
       | Gati Shakti, Umang, and UPI will destroy most other countries.
       | 
       | US refinery hegemony is so critical.
        
       | deanCommie wrote:
       | This is the natural outcome when you optimize a society for 1/
       | lowest taxes in the developed world, 2/ no expectation of a
       | social safety net, 3/ biggest possible upside to start a
       | business, get rich, and become a millionaire or a billionaire.
       | 
       | Planet Money did a whole series of trying to set up an offshore
       | company and realized that despite their reputation, Cayman
       | Islands and the like actually do more due diligence of new
       | companies than Delaware does.
       | 
       | The US is the best place in the world to start a company and get
       | obscenely wealthy. As long as you take the risk that if you are
       | unemployed you might die on the street destitute.
       | 
       | This incentivizes all sorts of antisocial behaviour like whole
       | industries dependent on the lack of structure in the rest of
       | society (the legal field, insurance, healthcare -> none of which
       | are nowhere nearly as big or as lucrative in the rest of the
       | developed world).
       | 
       | It also means every construction project is an opportunity for
       | the enrichment of someone, rather than being done by the state
       | for the betterment of society. Rail infrastructure and good
       | transit in general is an incredible societal equalizer, and works
       | best when it's basic, cheap, but reliable, frequent, and
       | consistent. Which the US is just not incentivized to provide.
       | 
       | So instead, these projects become vanity opportunities to suck up
       | as much wealth and at least help some middle class construction
       | workers make lucrative bank. Good for them I guess. Don't see any
       | other possible outcome in America today, such as it is.
        
       | Cupertino95014 wrote:
       | I have to say, I was dubious that a study like this could come up
       | with anything worthwhile, but the guy has some pretty sensible
       | ideas:
       | 
       |  _Build it cheaper, so you can have more of it_ - yep
       | 
       |  _Do it faster, so it 'll be cheaper_ - yep
       | 
       |  _Quit throwing money at all those expensive consultants_ - yep
       | 
       | ==============
       | 
       |  _Put a lid on all those lawsuits_ - he missed that one.
        
       | uejfiweun wrote:
       | Isn't it kind of obvious? The US has a ton of infrastructure
       | already in place, and in heavy use. It's not such an easy thing
       | to build new infrastructure on top of old infrastructure with
       | heavy traffic. It requires notices, permits, diversions,
       | schedules, tons of money, etc. What it boils down to is that it
       | is extremely inconvenient to build transit projects in the US for
       | everyone involved - the builders, the government, the taxpayers.
       | 
       | On the other hand, it's not too bad to build things in places
       | where there's nobody, or no infrastructure. Because it
       | inconveniences nobody. Nobody cares if some new building or
       | railway is erected in a spot where there was previously nothing.
       | This is why Europe's infrastructure is so much better than the
       | US's - because most of it was destroyed in WW2, and Europe was
       | able to essentially start from scratch. It's the same deal with
       | China, which was previously unindustrialized, and has had no
       | problems erecting massive cities and transit networks in all
       | these rural places.
       | 
       | I see no way for the US to get out of this quandry short of a
       | couple things:
       | 
       | - Some kind of weapons or terrorism scare that causes massive
       | city depopulation
       | 
       | - Major transportation revolution that enables mass transit
       | without infrastructure, think flying cars
       | 
       | - Building brand new cities, which honestly probably will not
       | happen unless climate change really fucks things up
       | 
       | So buckle in to your carseats folks, because we're gonna continue
       | to be a car nation for years to come.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | China is able to build massive projects in the context of there
         | already being heavy use of pre-existing infrastructure.
         | 
         | Your take is just absolutely wrong when it comes to China - the
         | US just has no cheap ways of managing competing interests like
         | this.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | US cities have spread and sprawled, and there's no planning
         | except for freeways.
         | 
         | Somehow we can acquire land for massive multi lane behemoths
         | riding over the fields, and build them before the developments
         | come in, but building or extending a train line before that is
         | completely impossible.
        
       | dsfyu404ed wrote:
       | All these analysis just wind up concluding in a different
       | politically correct phrasing of "y'all mfers piss a hell of a lot
       | of money away on stuff that would be overt graft if it weren't an
       | official part of the process and there wasn't some service
       | exchanged with a plausibly deniable reason"
       | 
       | The whole system from top to bottom is a money sieve and it's so
       | diffuse nobody is responsible so nobody has any incentive to
       | clean it up and everybody has some token reason why their bit of
       | pork is necessary so an outsider without tons of inside
       | experience that tends to also result in deep investment in the
       | status quo can't hope to accurately clean it up without breaking
       | everything.
        
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