[HN Gopher] How Australia became the world's greatest lithium su...
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       How Australia became the world's greatest lithium supplier
        
       Author : hhs
       Score  : 95 points
       Date   : 2022-11-11 15:23 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bbc.com)
        
       | hyperionplays wrote:
       | Shame Australian's see little to no benefit, all of the profits
       | are off shored and there are little royalties paid back to the
       | Australian people.
        
         | doorman2 wrote:
         | It's not like they're giving the lithium away for free?
        
           | asdff wrote:
           | After you account for the environmental costs, they are
           | probably paying people to remove it from their country
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | doorman2 wrote:
             | Isn't that true of almost everything humans do? When I get
             | a tank of gas, I'm basically paying to have a bigger
             | problem in the future. I do so because it solves a problem
             | I have in the present.
        
         | gizajob wrote:
         | But all Australians are free to go and earn $200,000pa working
         | in the mines in WA...
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | savoytruffle wrote:
       | Australia sure has a lot of empty land. Must be something down in
       | there.
        
         | adaml_623 wrote:
         | Terra Nullius right cobber
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | I always think of it as the land of snakes, spiders and salt-
         | water crocodiles. However, this reputation may be slightly
         | exaggerated:
         | 
         | https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/why-does-austr...
        
       | olivermarks wrote:
       | Rare earth mineral and lithium extraction is going to be the
       | greatest disaster the world has ever seen because ocean floors
       | will be plundered - the damage to the planet whether at sea or on
       | land will be unprecedented.
       | 
       | It is surreal how naive people are about both this plus the huge
       | lithium batteries high temperature fire risks and associated high
       | voltage electrocution.
       | 
       | There is a reason we went from high pressure steam power to a
       | lower pressure oil and gas based economy after the Victorian era.
        
         | AnotherGoodName wrote:
         | The alternative is gas. 100x more energy dense than lithium and
         | it hasn't been great for the environment to say the least.
        
           | olivermarks wrote:
           | Chile is already being ruined. Pay close attention to the
           | lithium triangle as it expands and the state the planet is
           | left in after being mined
           | 
           | https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/01/south-america-s-
           | li...
           | 
           | Why is lithium extraction bad for the environment? Any type
           | of resource extraction is harmful to the planet. This is
           | because removing these raw materials can result in soil
           | degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss, damage to
           | ecosystem functions and an increase in global warming.
           | 
           | But when we think of extraction, we think of fossil fuels
           | like coal and gas. Unfortunately, lithium also falls under
           | the same umbrella, despite paving the way for an electric
           | future.. Lithium can be described as the non-renewable
           | mineral that makes renewable energy possible - often touted
           | as the next oil.
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | > Chile is already being ruined.
             | 
             | By copper mining. Lithium is unnoticeable in comparison.
        
             | nicoburns wrote:
             | Lithium is non-renewable (we have a finite supply of it),
             | but it's also not a consumable so this is rather less of an
             | issue. Lithium in batteries is more comparable to steel in
             | car bodies than fossil fuels.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | Cars used to be made of steel and were very recyclable.
               | More recently they are mostly made of plastics and alloys
               | that are not easily recyclable.
               | 
               | Lithium is extremely hard to recycle.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > Cars used to be made of steel and were very recyclable.
               | More recently they are mostly made of plastics and alloys
               | that are not easily recyclable.
               | 
               | 50/50, actually.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | There is still some steel in the core load bearing areas
               | of modern vehicle but they are predominantly alloys. I'd
               | say around 60% alloys, 35% plastics and 5% steel would be
               | an average
        
               | tuatoru wrote:
               | Let's all just make up numbers when we could find them
               | with 15 seconds' effort.
               | 
               | https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transpor
               | tat...
               | 
               | Ferrous metals 65%.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | 1 Ferrous metal blends with other materials are
               | increasingly the main components of vehicles. MMC etc.
               | Where body shops used to straighten collision damage on
               | jigs to pull out damaged steel chassis, bodyshells etc
               | the modern composites are very hard to repair, containing
               | all sorts of materials including steel, alloys, plastics
               | etc. They are also hard to recycle.
               | 
               | 2 How old is that graphic?
               | 
               | 3 Manners
        
             | VBprogrammer wrote:
             | But it isn't lost or scattered into the atmosphere. It's
             | kept well contained in a nice container which can be moved
             | around easily with a forklift. The metals can be
             | reprocessed and turned back into more batteries.
             | 
             | Even first generation Leaf batteries are still being sold
             | for reasonable sums of money so we haven't even reached the
             | stage were we are recycling them in ernest yet.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | The recycling processes and costs are astronomical and
               | environmentally damaging.
               | https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/are-lithium-ion-
               | batteries-...
               | 
               | As lithium batteries degrade they become more unstable
               | and fire prone. I'm sure you're familiar with what
               | happens to your laptop battery as it ages - shorter and
               | shorter life, swelling etc.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | You're thinking of a particular kind of battery with a
               | flammable electrolyte. Other popular chemistries (LFP
               | being the most obvious) aren't anywhere near as fire-
               | prone.
               | 
               | And of course, laptop batteries get worked -much- harder
               | and treated to much harsher environments than any EV
               | battery.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | Teslas use LFP batteries
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/J6eS6JzBn0k?t=77
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | > Why is lithium extraction bad for the environment? Any
             | type of resource extraction is harmful to the planet. This
             | is because removing these raw materials can result in soil
             | degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss, damage to
             | ecosystem functions and an increase in global warming.
             | 
             | Are you trying to argue that using fossil fuels is better
             | for the environment? It's not clear if you're using this
             | opportunity to complain about mining in general or if
             | you're arguing that we are better off with petrol cars.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | If we develop a proper biofuel then we are going to wish
               | we still had carbon powered cars imo. The issue with
               | carbon fuel is that it gets put into the atmosphere and
               | not recaptured, thus warming the planet and disturbing
               | ecology. Once a method is used to capture this carbon
               | organically, however, then carbon just becomes a
               | transient used delivery device and a store for solar
               | energy that powers the underlying photosynthesis to
               | restructure atmospheric carbon into solids. A tree trunk
               | or a pound of green algae becomes a fungible unit of
               | energy. Everything changes.
        
               | Choco31415 wrote:
               | They're directly quoting text from the article. See the
               | section " Why is lithium extraction bad for the
               | environment?".
        
           | antihero wrote:
           | Or renewables and mass transit
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | > There is a reason we went from high pressure steam power to a
         | lower pressure oil and gas based economy after the Victorian
         | era.
         | 
         | First, steam is not a fuel. Second, where did you get the idea
         | that steam pressure is higher than what we see with oil and gas
         | fueled machines?
        
           | olivermarks wrote:
           | Steam energy was what powered the industrial revolution, and
           | is now a major enabler of the production of electricity.
           | 
           | https://petrotechinc.com/how-does-a-steam-turbine-work/
           | 
           | Unfortunately we are burning huge amounts of wood to produce
           | electricity in this way. I prefer small modular nuclear
           | reactors if we want to be environmentally efficient.
           | https://www.wbdg.org/resources/biomass-electricity-
           | generatio....
        
         | someweirdperson wrote:
         | > and associated high voltage electrocution.
         | 
         | I am not aware of any cars using high voltage [0] yet. But of
         | course getting zapped by low voltage is bad enough.
         | 
         | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_voltage
        
           | olivermarks wrote:
           | https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-
           | releases/Pages/NR20210113.as...
           | 
           | Risks to Emergency Responders from High-Voltage, Lithium-Ion
           | Battery Fires Addressed in Safety Report
           | 
           | Actions sought by the NTSB in the four safety recommendations
           | issued Wednesday include:
           | 
           | Factoring the availability of a manufacturer's emergency
           | response guide, and its adherence to International
           | Organization for Standardization standard 17840 and SAE
           | International recommended practice J2990, when determining a
           | U.S. New Car Assessment Program score. Continued research on
           | ways to mitigate or deenergize stranded energy in high-
           | voltage lithium-ion batteries. Continued research on ways to
           | reduce the hazards associated with thermal runaway resulting
           | from high-speed, high-severity crashes. Manufacturer
           | emergency response guides modeled on ISO standard 17840 and
           | SAE International recommended practice J2990. Incorporation
           | of vehicle-specific information in emergency response guides
           | for: Fighting high-voltage lithium-ion battery fires.
           | Mitigating thermal runaway and the risk of high-voltage
           | lithium-ion battery reignition. Mitigating risks associated
           | with stranded energy in high-voltage lithium-ion batteries
           | during emergency response and before a damaged electric
           | vehicle is removed from the scene. Safely storing an electric
           | vehicle with a damaged high-voltage lithium-ion battery.
           | Providing information and available guidance to first
           | responders and other crash scene workers about fire risks
           | associated with high-voltage lithium-ion battery fires in
           | electric vehicles. Fires in electric vehicles powered by
           | high-voltage lithium-ion batteries pose the risk of electric
           | shock to emergency responders from exposure to the high-
           | voltage components of a damaged lithium-ion battery. A
           | further risk is that damaged cells in the battery can
           | experience thermal runaway - uncontrolled increases in
           | temperature and pressure - which can lead to battery
           | reignition. The risks of electric shock and battery
           | reignition/fire arise from the "stranded" energy that remains
           | in a damaged battery.
        
             | olivermarks wrote:
             | Thank God these two electric vehicles didn't catch fire and
             | set the gas lines on fire when they crashed this week
             | 
             | https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Tesla-Prius-crash-
             | int...
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Is a Prius considered an electric car now? But a Prius
               | and a Tesla crashing into a horn sounds like something
               | that would only happen in SF.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | Prius's don't burn as hot as full BEVs but if their
               | batteries are compromised in a wreck it gets pretty fiery
               | https://abc7.com/pacific-coast-highway-car-fire-
               | pch/1051638/
        
             | someweirdperson wrote:
             | SAE is using terms differently, abusing, re-defining terms
             | that have been in use for a century. This mixed use of the
             | same word for different things can be extremely dangerous.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | Not as dangerous as the free pass LFP batteries have been
               | getting despite trapped energy, thermal runaway and very
               | high heat fires that are extremely hard to control and
               | extinguish. There needs to be far, far more oversight of
               | the battery industry.
        
               | tuatoru wrote:
               | Where in that link were LFP batteries mentioned? One of
               | the advantages of LFP over nickel-manganese-cobalt
               | chemistries is lower heat evolution when punctured or
               | ruptured. Do you have other evidence for your claim of
               | very high heat fires from LFP batteries?
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-
               | releases/Pages/NR20210113.as...
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/tuVxwmnhqP4?t=385
        
               | philipkglass wrote:
               | I didn't watch the video, but neither this NTSB press
               | release nor the longer report it points to contain the
               | terms "LFP" or "phosphate."
        
       | rr808 wrote:
       | Australia is like the Saudi Arabia of mining. Such a big
       | continent with very few people. Politically stable and smart
       | enough to exploit itself and keep most of the profits. The lucky
       | country indeed.
        
         | dalyons wrote:
         | Mmm idk about keeping most of the profits - we could have done
         | so much more in that regard over the last two decades. Missed
         | opportunity to create something like Norway's national oil
         | wealth fund. Instead of offshoring most of the gains.
        
           | spoonalious wrote:
           | There is one: https://www.futurefund.gov.au/
        
             | hyperionplays wrote:
             | it got raided by successive governments and the royalties
             | we charge are tiny relative to other nations.
             | 
             | For example: Australian Gas consumers pay more to use
             | natural gas in Australia, than people in Japan, using
             | Australian LNG.
        
               | consumer451 wrote:
               | > For example: Australian Gas consumers pay more to use
               | natural gas in Australia, than people in Japan, using
               | Australian LNG.
               | 
               | Would it be fair to call that blatant corruption, or
               | could some argument be made that it is not?
        
               | rr808 wrote:
               | I'd have to see a source for all three of those claims to
               | believe it.
        
             | Grimburger wrote:
             | The future fund exists solely to pay public servant
             | pensions and even then by it's own account it won't be
             | enough to fund expected liabilities, the average person
             | will never see a cent of it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | rospaya wrote:
         | > The lucky country indeed
         | 
         | Great book. Written in the 60s but it still holds today.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lucky_Country
        
         | robbiep wrote:
         | The true quote that coined that term is
         | 
         |  _Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people
         | who share its luck. It lives on other people 's ideas, and,
         | although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders
         | (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that
         | surround them that they are often taken by surprise._
         | 
         | Maybe we're a bit better now (particularly after the last
         | election) but it doesn't really mean what everyone thinks it
         | means. Basically, historically, we have failed upwards. Still,
         | there are very few places I'd desire to live in
        
           | golemiprague wrote:
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | This is a surprisingly comprehensive and well-written article,
       | worth reading. For example, the authors note that the majority of
       | Australia's lithium ore is refined to metal in China, although
       | there's a push for local Australian refining. For more details on
       | the current state of lithium battery production globally, this is
       | good:
       | 
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31850-y
       | 
       | (Jul 2022) "Tracing the origin of lithium in Li-ion batteries
       | using lithium isotopes", Desaulty et al.
       | 
       | This in particular is interesting, using a blockchain to track
       | sourcing:
       | 
       | > "Major car manufacturers like BMW group, Tesla, and Volvo
       | recently announced that they will increase the transparency of
       | their supply chains for EV batteries, and ensure responsible and
       | sustainable sourcing of raw materials. Some companies (BASF,
       | Volkswagen, Fairphone) have started a partnership for sustainable
       | lithium mining in Chile. Carmakers also explore the usefulness of
       | blockchains for improving the scrutiny of supply chains. A
       | blockchain is the control of chain-of-custody systems, based on
       | the shipping documentation that is included in online databases,
       | to allow real-time raw materials tracking and electronic tagging.
       | However, document-based traceability systems can be falsified,
       | and must be independently controlled and audited to provide
       | credibility."
        
         | SnowHill9902 wrote:
         | How does "blockchain" prevent a document from being falsified?
        
       | samatman wrote:
       | I wish Australia the best of luck in escaping the resource curse,
       | by moving up the value chain.
       | 
       | Relative to China.
       | 
       | I'd like this post to be more sarcastic than it is, really, I
       | would.
        
         | acchow wrote:
         | > resource curse
         | 
         | The service sector makes up 62% of the Australian economy.
        
           | robocat wrote:
           | Australia's service sector makes up ~20% of exports - the
           | resource curse is related to import/export, not internal
           | measures.
           | 
           | Total exports 2019-20: 383G$ goods, 92.3G$ services
           | https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade-and-
           | investment/tr...
        
             | acchow wrote:
             | Wikipedia has an articel on the Resource Curse:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
             | 
             | It is about having "less economic growth, less democracy,
             | or worse development outcomes than countries with fewer
             | natural resources". Australia is an advanced services based
             | economy. No one would consider them as an example of a
             | country under a "resource curse"
             | 
             | By your measure, Japan also has a resource curse because
             | services makes up 22% of exports?
        
               | robocat wrote:
               | Here is a more interesting graph https://www.rba.gov.au/e
               | ducation/images/explainers/trends-in... from [1] which
               | shows Australia's resource exports increasing drastically
               | by percentage over the years, and the percentage for the
               | other export sectors declining (agricultural, services,
               | manufacturing, other). That graph seems to show services
               | have dropped to ~12% of exports which is stunning.
               | 
               | Whether that graph says anything about Australia and the
               | resource curse is graduate level analysis - I don't have
               | any opinion either way.
               | 
               | I felt your reply was a strawman, or putting words in my
               | mouth? I only pointed out a figure with no implication of
               | analysis, because your figure of internal services was
               | completely irrelevant. Note even countries with the
               | resource curse still internally have cafes, and concerts,
               | and mining support crews.
               | 
               | PS: NZ probably isn't doing much better. Service exports
               | seem lowish, and half of our service exports is tourism:
               | https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nzl#trade-services
               | 
               | [1] https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers
               | /trends...
        
               | acchow wrote:
               | I think I skipped a few steps in my first comment. Let me
               | break it down.
               | 
               | 1) Countries are considered to be under a "resource
               | curse" if they are unable to reach advanced economy
               | status because of hindered growth over long periods of
               | time caused by an abundance of resources. If a country is
               | an advanced economy, it is not under a "resource curse"
               | 
               | 2) One measure of how advanced an economy is is the GDP
               | per capita. I don't think this is really sufficient tho
               | because you can imagine a country that is so abundant in,
               | say, oil that they do nothing but extract oil and STILL
               | reach a GDP per capita of $30k. They can do this all
               | without any advancement of their economy, and they can
               | use imports to satisfy their desire for consumption.
               | 
               | 3) So I actually prefer an alternative measure of
               | "advanced economy" - the majority of the economy is
               | service based.
               | 
               | Because Australia meets criteria 3, it is an advanced
               | economy. (Australia also has a high GDP per capita, in
               | case criteria 2 is more convincing to you).
               | 
               | You could propose that Australia will become resource
               | cursed in the future if its other sectors stop growing
               | over long periods and resource extraction continues to
               | grow - eventually to the point that the services sector
               | no longer represents the majority of output. I think this
               | is possible but unlikely. And it would take a very long
               | time....
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | No, Japan makes stuff.
        
           | samatman wrote:
           | Give it enough time and you can all provide services to the
           | Chinese, in exchange for technology and goods.
           | 
           | I'm sure they need services, and not just raw materials they
           | can turn into products and sell to everyone, rather than
           | Australia in particular. But you'll service them with
           | services.
           | 
           | Australian services, to be clear. Very in-demand trade good.
           | Much like raw lithium, and batteries, that way. Everyone
           | wants Australian services.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | We detached this subthread from
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33562725.
        
         | 8ytecoder wrote:
         | It's not a uniquely Australian issue. India also exports a lot
         | of iron ore to China to be made into steel and sold back. This
         | was also how imperialism was funded - take raw materials
         | (cotton) and sell back finished goods (clothes).
        
       | varispeed wrote:
       | Why lithium is not considered in the same category as fossil
       | fuels? I mean, it is technically used as a fuel that you need to
       | keep "energising" and it becomes "spent" after nth "energising'.
       | Whereas e.g. diesel comes "pre-charged" and is "spent" after
       | first use? I read conflicting articles which one is more
       | environment friendly.
        
         | dalyons wrote:
         | Because it doesn't become "spent", you can just recycle it back
         | into new batteries at nearly 100% recovery.
        
           | varispeed wrote:
           | How the process of recycling looks like in terms of energy
           | needed to perform it, use of chemicals like solvents in the
           | process - can these be recovered too?
           | 
           | I see I am being downvoted. It's like walking on eggshells
           | asking these questions these days.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | Alright, I'll foolishly take a stab.
             | 
             | It feels that you are arguing in bad faith. Because
             | transitioning to lithium/electrification is not perfect, we
             | should just shutter the idea entirely? Will it take more
             | energy/metal/resource extraction to transition away from
             | fossil fuels? Yes. Will the be some amount of novel
             | environmental damage (different from what happens for the
             | petroleum economy)? Yes. Long term does it seem the best
             | possible option available to humanity? Yes.
        
         | advisedwang wrote:
         | Lithium car batteries can be cycled 1500-2000 times. Fossil
         | fuels get 1 cycle. 3 orders of magnitude is a categorical
         | difference.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.midtronics.com/blog/do-electric-car-ev-
         | batteries...
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | And then when you're done, the lithium in the battery is
           | recycled into a new one.
        
           | asdff wrote:
           | Thats just because we don't care about reusing spent carbon.
           | If we wanted to sequester all carbon into trees that we use
           | again for fuel, for example, you can cycle atoms of carbon
           | infinitely, and therefore power your vehicle purely from the
           | sunlight energy that structures the chemistry of your woody
           | carbon fuel without needing to build and replace solar panels
           | every few decades.
        
             | advisedwang wrote:
             | There are quite a few technologies that attempt to use
             | chemical energy storage, but none of them are as well
             | developed as electricity/batteries:
             | 
             | - The hydrogen economy. Currently hydrogen generation is
             | very expensive and there's no distribution system yet
             | because of H2's physical properties.
             | 
             | - Biodiesel. Looks promising, but basically limited by
             | inputs.
             | 
             | - Fuel cells can potentially be run reversibly, so you
             | could have the same chemical medium being converted back-
             | and-forth with a charger instead of lithium. I'm not very
             | familiar, but I understand physical and chemical
             | constraints mean this mode is difficult to manufacture and
             | operate in practice.
        
       | Synaesthesia wrote:
       | The flipside of electrification of vehicles is all the extra
       | metal they need to mine, which is highly environmentally
       | destructive.
       | 
       | We don't even have the metal supplies to fully electrify car
       | production, not even close, although I see South America is going
       | to ramp up production substantially soon.
        
         | beefield wrote:
         | > We don't even have the metal supplies to fully electrify car
         | production,
         | 
         | Okay, I need to say that you are not even wrong. Yep, I am
         | slightly irritated on this blatantly false claim that has
         | started popping up. If you think your claim has any merit,
         | could you please provid the metal that you think we are
         | lacking, estimat the amount needed and compare that amoun to
         | the amount in earth's crust. If you get anything but
         | infinitesmally small needs compared to what here is, please
         | explain why that metal can't be replaced.
        
         | elsonrodriguez wrote:
         | Lung cancer rates are higher near major roads due to air
         | pollution from cars. Fossil fuel cars basically means every
         | highway is a superfund site. We just don't talk about it.
         | 
         | Given the choice between toxic waste at a mine and toxic waste
         | in millions of homes, I'll take the mine.
        
           | asdff wrote:
           | Most of that localized pollution comes from stuff like tire
           | dust which is increased as we buy new heavier vehicles to do
           | the same old getting around. The big win with fuel air
           | quality was the move away from leaded gas and the clean air
           | act, for decades now the major sources of pollution from a
           | car have not been from the tailpipe.
        
           | 0xffff2 wrote:
           | How much of that pollution is coming out of the tail pipe vs.
           | off of the brake pads and tires?
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | Keep in mind that EVs with their regenerative braking use
             | their brake pads effectively never. Modern EV brake systems
             | actually have to deliberately _not_ use their regenerative
             | braking once in a while in order to exercise the brake pads
             | and make sure that they don 't rust into uselessness from
             | utter disuse.
        
             | elsonrodriguez wrote:
             | It's also important to wonder how much of the pollution is
             | leaked fluids and burnt motor oil.
             | 
             | A while back I saw a video on youtube of someone mining
             | road dust for platinum of all things.
             | 
             | Evs will be a likely improvement for the health of those
             | near roads.
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | Most. PM2.5 is the danger, particulates of 2.5 microns or
             | less. Polycyclic aromatics and oxides of nitrogen.
             | 
             | Tire scrub and brake pads produce larger particles that
             | wash into stormwater drains and poison downstream aquatic
             | life.
        
           | patall wrote:
           | I am optimistic as well but let's not forget the asphalt
           | (major pollutant during construction and repair), breaking
           | and tire degradation that each contribute to this.
        
           | 8ytecoder wrote:
           | It's a classic false dichotomy. There are plenty of options
           | in between - from plug-in hybrids to funding public transit.
           | In my ideal world, I'll drive a sports hybrid for fun and
           | take a well maintained public transport to work.
        
         | MonkeyMalarky wrote:
         | Afghanistan has something like $1T worth of lithium reserves.
         | Who gets access and how it ends up being exploited remains to
         | be seen but that country is not going to become some forgotten
         | backwater anytime soon.
        
           | Victerius wrote:
           | Afghanistan is landlocked. To its north is Russia. To its
           | east is China. To its south are Pakistan and India. And to
           | its west is Iran.
           | 
           | Fun neighborhood. Nothing could go wrong with the above
           | countries fighting for their share of Afghanistan's mineral
           | resources.
        
             | dsfyu404ed wrote:
             | >Afghanistan is landlocked
             | 
             | Which is not that great if you intend to export raw bulk
             | goods (e.g. ore). You really want to have ports for that.
             | The extra few percent efficiency of ship vs rail makes a
             | huge difference because margin is so thin.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | One of its neighbors will build out rail lines to their
               | borders so they can take the position of lucrative
               | refiner and exporter of a massive lithium reserve that
               | only their infrastructure has good access to.
        
             | newyankee wrote:
             | India does not share land border with Afghanistan ,
             | although Afg and Indian people apparently share warm
             | relations (not Taliban)
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > India does not share land border with Afghanistan
               | 
               | I'm guessing India would claim that it does. Pakistan
               | would argue otherwise.
        
               | devoutsalsa wrote:
               | Reading about the line of control that splits Kashmir is
               | pretty interesting.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi_Agreement
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Localised environmental destruction is such a pittance compared
         | to global environmental catastrophe that its comical people
         | even bring it up.
        
           | dsfyu404ed wrote:
           | >Localised environmental destruction is such a pittance
           | compared to global environmental catastrophe that its comical
           | people even bring it up.
           | 
           | While every environmentalist ever talks about "the greater
           | good" they pouted and whined and tossed the plate on the
           | floor when there was nuclear energy on it. You'll have to
           | forgive the general public for not taking you (as a group) at
           | your word.
        
             | strbean wrote:
             | I think the issue with nuclear energy is the combined
             | threats of local destruction and global environmental
             | catastrophe. They may be overblown, but mining lithium to
             | make electric cars doesn't increase the risk of nuclear
             | weapons proliferation, for example.
        
           | Synaesthesia wrote:
           | But it's not an either/or. The mining and transport of metals
           | also releases carbon dioxide.
           | 
           | To give an example every day I see convoys of trucks coming
           | from Zambia to South African ports. These should be
           | transported by train!
           | 
           | The solution is smaller, more efficient cars, electric bikes,
           | public transport and things like that, not expensive 3 ton
           | Tesla cars.
        
           | lob_it wrote:
           | Abandonded mines (with the environmental carelessness) and
           | the coming revelation of abandoned oil/gas operations leaking
           | greenhouse gases is just a slice of history on repeat.
           | 
           | https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/structural/aba.
           | ..
           | 
           | It looks like insufficient bonds and bankruptcy just shifted
           | cost burdens for cleanup to government.
           | 
           | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/cleaning-abandoned-coal-
           | mi...
           | 
           | https://apnews.com/article/business-mountains-environment-
           | an...
           | 
           | Most of the issues with abandonded mines can be confirmed in
           | several countries, but the profits from pump and dump do
           | afford positive GDP (superfund cleanups, etc).
           | 
           | The ROI while in operation keeps it going and keeps the "we
           | need renewables now" crowd focused on (someone elses) goal(s)
           | :)
           | 
           | The oil and gas industries have already started transfering
           | ownership to smaller companies to bypass obligations, so the
           | cycle continues, with new lithium mining just coming on the
           | heels of two other unresolved climate catastrophes.
        
             | iso1631 wrote:
             | > It looks like insufficient bonds and bankruptcy just
             | shifted cost burdens for cleanup to government.
             | 
             | That's the goal of capitalism, privitise the profits,
             | socialise the losses.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | No it isn't. Where does such a statement even come from?
               | 
               | That's like saying the goal of socialism is to starve
               | everyone.
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | You're the one making a non-sequitur. Capitalism is an
               | ideology about maximizing profits. You can make a lot
               | more profit if you externalize all your costs. "Privatize
               | the profits, socialize the losses" is a way of saying
               | that corporations have a lot of magical legal devices
               | that let them avoid responsibility for externalities they
               | themselves created once the revenue stream is no longer
               | flowing.
               | 
               | Can't you think of time and again examples of this? For
               | instance, all fossil fuel using companies are
               | participating in this exercise in real-time today; they
               | certainly are not paying anything for the massive
               | pollution damage they are creating. Corporate fraud never
               | leads to meaningful punishment of the executives and they
               | often make a profit even after "punishment".
        
               | lob_it wrote:
               | A countryman between two lawyers is like a fish between
               | two cats.
               | 
               | Benjamin Franklin (with a hint of Einstein) :p
        
               | sophacles wrote:
               | In capitalism, attempts to change the status quo are
               | always met with "but this will hurt profits!"
               | 
               | In socialism, attempts to change the status quo are not
               | met with "but fewer people will starve this way"
               | 
               | Whether or not the GP is correct, it's silly to feign
               | ignorance of how this idea could come about.
        
               | lob_it wrote:
               | I actually only looked at north america, knowing that it
               | happens in every country that mines. Capitalism is not
               | the scapegoat.
               | 
               | https://e360.yale.edu/features/china-wrestles-with-the-
               | toxic...
               | 
               | The psuedo-environmentalists getting played like a
               | 2-bit....crypto investor (not my 1st word choice, but
               | still relevant) is funny though :p
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | Capitalism exists in every country today. You would not
               | have chinese billionaires today if they were not a
               | capitalistic country. They are socialist in almost name
               | only these days; they are clearly not interested in
               | redistributing wealth or favoring the health of the
               | collective over the wealth of the elite. IMO there aren't
               | many great examples of socialist governments, since many
               | of the historical examples we've seen have been from a
               | powerful elite using the mass appeal of the socialist
               | message solely to put themselves in charge of an
               | authoritarian state and use that position to further
               | their own personal interests, versus to focus on
               | collective benefits.
        
         | andrewmutz wrote:
         | > The flipside of electrification of vehicles is all the extra
         | metal they need to mine, which is highly environmentally
         | destructive.
         | 
         | The environmental destruction of climate change is almost
         | certainly worse
        
         | it_citizen wrote:
         | Do you have a reliable source for the lack of supply?
         | 
         | Ideally with a detailed breakdown for each potentially
         | problematic material.
         | 
         | I keep seeing claims that go both way on that matter. But none
         | were backed by serious research.
        
           | Manuel_D wrote:
           | Ultimately, scarcity is determined by cost. Here's the cost
           | history: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
           | 
           | The cathode accounts for just over half a battery's cost:
           | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-
           | of-a...
        
           | cscharenberg wrote:
           | In 8th grade I read a book on Zinc and it projected the
           | world's supply would run out by ~1985. The book was published
           | in like 1970 and I was reading it in 1994. Since then I've
           | had a big of skepticism of "it's running out" when it comes
           | to raw industrial materials.
        
           | throwanapple wrote:
           | I came across this before:
           | 
           | - The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth
           | (https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/16_2021.pdf)
        
             | beefield wrote:
             | Just to note, that is making pretty questionable
             | assumptions to get to the conclusion that there are not
             | enough metals. For example, they assume that there is a set
             | need of cobalt/nickel per kWh of lithium batteries, which
             | obviously is completely false (see LFP chemistry). They
             | also use 2018 reserves as the yardstick, completely
             | oblivious to the fact that already by 2021 the lithium
             | reserves had _increased_ compared to 2018 by more than what
             | their own numbers say a generation of EVs need.
        
         | keewee7 wrote:
         | >highly environmentally destructive
         | 
         | Is there any reliable information on this?
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | If you think 10kg of lithium in a Tesla is a lot of extraction,
         | you're never going to believe how much steel and aluminum is in
         | a car.
        
           | Synaesthesia wrote:
           | Yes that's why we need to move to small, efficient, reliable
           | cars and public transport.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | 100% true. But objections to resource extraction for
             | lithium should just be ignored. There are literally 1000x
             | larger extraction sites for other purposes, especially iron
             | and aluminum, but also table salt, laundry soap, etc. There
             | are nation-sized areas of America that have been scraped
             | flat for oil and gas production. The land sacrificed for
             | lithium extraction is so far down the list of important
             | environmental issues that it can't even be ranked more
             | precisely than "tied for last place".
        
             | gadflyinyoureye wrote:
             | Keep in mind that you have to move your population to
             | higher density housing. Essentially to really prompt public
             | transit in the US you will have to introduce draconian laws
             | that prevent the creation of single family houses and their
             | future sales. This is if you work from the idea that we
             | only have 9 years left until we can't prevent the climate
             | damage.
        
               | surfaceofthesun wrote:
               | Is that necessarily true? I'm a more optimistic about
               | gradual densification. Across the US, we've seen an
               | increase in offices moving to the periphery of cities
               | [1]. I think we keep reinventing mini-cities in the
               | suburbs and will eventually end up with an American-style
               | polycentricity, especially in the South and West [2].
               | Remote work will increase these pressures.
               | 
               | Let's look at the sprawling suburbs of Houston, Texas.
               | These suburbs have necessities covered within 10-15
               | minutes by car. If you look at this map [3] and this one
               | [4] of a newer neighborhood in Katy, TX (about 30 miles)
               | from downtown Houston, you'll notice a few points:
               | 
               | * The schools and stores are already close to the
               | neighborhoods. Biking to the store takes ~12 minutes vs 8
               | mins driving * It's ~4.5 mi (7km) to the park & ride.
               | Biking takes ~22 mins vs 12 mins by car. * There's
               | several food places, dentist offices, and doctors offices
               | along the way.
               | 
               | This neighborhood is following the same developmental
               | pattern as the earlier neighborhoods, which some
               | iterative refinements. Of course there is still some low
               | handing fruit that could be addressed: * This area could
               | add bike lanes whenever they did planned road expansions
               | (which is often) * Add safe bike and pedestrian
               | over/underpasses for the freeways & busy intersections *
               | Connect existing paths that connect neighborhood
               | amenities (i.e. parks, schools) to inter-neighborhood
               | paths * Prevent commercial and industrial site boundaries
               | from harming neighborhood inter-connectivity
               | 
               | These fixes would allow an extremely car-dependent area
               | more "transit options" at very little cost. These would
               | not require rezoning, rule changes (i.e. parking
               | minimums), or forced increases in density. The market
               | repeatedly identifies that people want the same things
               | basic things nearby. But the chosen zoning and local car-
               | centric ordinances perpetuate this car centrality.
               | Parking minimums set a floor on store size, which limits
               | store density, which undermines convenient access by any
               | means other than cars. Builders don't know how the
               | commercial sites are going to be used and exactly what-
               | for.
               | 
               | Within the neighborhoods, access to locals schools and
               | parks are considered in the planning stages. That's why
               | it's common to see schoolchildren riding their bike or
               | walking home from school in groups -- sometimes with
               | chaperones / crossing guards. It's designed to be
               | convenient, for example adding shortcuts between streets
               | to the school [5]. Making these slightly larger to
               | explicitly accommodate bikes, especially for accessing
               | nearby essentials is not a tough sell. This is largely a
               | consequence of builders' presumptions about homeowners'
               | expectations/preferences. It has taken a while, but these
               | same builders are finally starting to run fiber alongside
               | or instead of coax to these newer neighborhoods -- a
               | convenient selling point post-covid.
               | 
               | Regarding densification, there are already apartments [6]
               | built nearby the highway, adjacent to these new
               | neighborhoods. Changes that would require more effort
               | than the points mentioned above include: * Allow duplexes
               | and small apartments to be built within the neighborhoods
               | * Apartments and duplexes [7] are currently like
               | standalone "communities," isolated from the surrounding
               | neighborhoods * Let small shops and offices be built
               | within the neighborhoods, not just immediately adjacent
               | 
               | Note that a lot of these zoning changes only require
               | changing builder presumptions. Often they're building in
               | unincorporated areas. You can see an increasing mix of
               | home-types and nearby shopping in very new communities
               | like Bridgeland [9]. There's even a "desired path"
               | emerging behind this Lifetime Fitness [8]. This path
               | isn't even possible in the older neighborhoods.
               | Basically, builders are rezoning large areas (often
               | displacing cows), so better inter-mixing of stores and
               | community centers (for transit stops) can be done ahead
               | of time.
               | 
               | That's why I don't think the changes required for more
               | transit are so significant. Transit agencies are already
               | using existing parking (e.g. stores and theaters) for
               | park & rides. To be clear, I personally know people
               | taking park-and-rides to work at Oil & Gas companies
               | because it's more convenient. Expanding access to these
               | facilities, adding some transit interconnections between
               | suburbs, and expanding to important non-office
               | destinations (malls, community colleges, and airports)
               | are low-risk expansion opportunities. Adding compelling
               | optionality can be a means to build support for more
               | expansive projects later on. I think if builders thought
               | adding autonomous trams through their master planned
               | communities would help make them more money, they'd do it
               | in a heartbeat.
               | 
               | If you look at a older part of the suburbs (south of
               | I-10), you see the same sidewalks and shortcuts for
               | access to the school. But somehow they haven't extended
               | the walking/biking infrastructure to the shopping center
               | _across the street_ from the high school [10]. Even
               | further south, you see the same thing [11]. Sidewalks
               | will connect you to the park, but it 's impossible to
               | that Target from the neighborhood _directly adjacent!_
               | These shortsighted mistakes are (slowly) being remediated
               | with each new neighborhood built. We can achieve
               | substantial emissions reductions by enabling families to
               | get by owning only 1 vehicle instead of 2, especially if
               | those vehicles are EVs or Plug-in hybrids. Hopefully we
               | 'll even see more innovations like shared heating /
               | cooling for whole neighborhoods, like this one in Austin
               | [12], while we aim for ever-lower emissions.
               | 
               | --- [1]
               | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/10/06/moving-
               | off... [2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/
               | 23998083209512... [3] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Sto
               | ckdick+Junior+High+School... [4] https://www.google.com/m
               | aps/dir/Stockdick+Junior+High+School...
               | 
               | [5] https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8434568,-95.7820818,1
               | 21m/dat... [6] https://www.google.com/maps/place/Brea+Lux
               | ury+Apartments/@29... [7] https://www.google.com/maps/pla
               | ce/Greenbrae+Ln,+Cinco+Ranch+...
               | 
               | [8] https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9310744,-95.7259749,1
               | 13m/dat... [9] https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bridgela
               | nd,+Cypress,+TX+77... [10] https://www.google.com/maps/pl
               | ace/LaCenterra+at+Cinco+Ranch/... [11] https://www.google
               | .com/maps/place/Meadow+Lake+Park/@29.59629... [12]
               | https://www.whispervalleyaustin.com/why-youll-want-to-
               | live-i...
        
             | xyzzy123 wrote:
             | I know this is a low value comment before I write it, but I
             | just cannot see any possible future where americans buy
             | smaller cars. This level of societal innovation feels
             | inaccessible now.
             | 
             | In the face of severe climate and weather events, I can
             | hear the buyer still thinking "yes, but the larger model is
             | safer in a storm or fire..."
        
           | Manuel_D wrote:
           | Steel and aluminum prices didn't rise 12x in the last 2 years
           | [1]. It doesn't matter how much that lithium weighs on a
           | scale. It matters how much it weighs against your wallet.
           | 
           | 1. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | I thought we are talking about the sizes of holes in the
             | ground, not the cost.
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | Doesn't it seem likely the cost of the material directly
               | relates to the size and difficulty of creating said hole
               | in the ground?
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | No, that doesn't seem likely to me at all. Lithium prices
               | are high because the industry is not very well developed
               | and the demand is skyrocketing. Borax is co-located with
               | lithium deposits (in some places) and is extracted by a
               | similar process at similar scales and it costs 100x less
               | than lithium. And for some reason nobody looks at the
               | gigantic land scar at a borax mine and starts screaming
               | about the environmental cost, because there's no oil
               | billionaire astroturf fund dedicated to whining about
               | boron.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Open pit mines are huge and the biggest ones are for
               | boring things like iron and copper:
               | https://www.mpirecruitment.au/news/the-worlds-deepest-
               | bigges...
        
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