[HN Gopher] Context to Twitter's 2023 advertisers issues
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       Context to Twitter's 2023 advertisers issues
        
       Author : watwut
       Score  : 87 points
       Date   : 2022-11-05 17:46 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | cavisne wrote:
       | I think this will all work out fine in the end, the unique thing
       | with twitter is the exact people who lead these boycott
       | campaigns... are all completely obsessed with using twitter. The
       | author of this thread is a prime example.
       | 
       | And the ads are placed on the feed not on a piece of content
       | (like the issues youtube was having).
       | 
       | Elon should just deploy a "woke bubble" option where your ad is
       | sandwiched between posts from two liberal elites. The audience
       | would still be broad as just as many people follow these people
       | to laugh at them as to support them.
        
       | stalfosknight wrote:
       | I look forward to the demise of the twin sewers of disinformation
       | and privacy destruction Meta and Twitter. I think people forget
       | the internet got along just fine before these companies existed.
        
         | singingfish wrote:
         | I liked facebook in the early days of popular adoption as it
         | got the normal people I know using the internet more like I had
         | been for a long time. But it went wrong after that and it's an
         | platform that's lost a great deal of its value.
        
         | pmoriarty wrote:
         | Unfortunately, in the unlikely event of these two companies
         | completely disappearing, there'll be plenty of others as bad or
         | worse to take their place.
        
       | freewizard wrote:
       | This is quite basic 101 for ad/media. It'll be surprising if no
       | one ever texted Elon Musk about it since May.
        
       | kristianbrigman wrote:
       | On the other hand... it seems that Elon's long-term plan is to
       | try to create a social media platform where the users are the
       | customers instead of the product... that seems like it would have
       | to rely less on advertising revenue to do that.
       | 
       | I am not sure how that will play out but I wish him well (as
       | someone who is not a major user of most social media)...
        
         | heartbreak wrote:
         | How many $8/mo users does he need to pay the billion per year
         | in interest he saddled Twitter with?
        
         | phillipcarter wrote:
         | I'm not convinced he has any real long-term plans, considering
         | how he tried so hard to get out of his ridiculously high offer.
        
       | Imnimo wrote:
       | >Media buyers did ask those questions. Twitter had zero answers
       | or assurances, the presentation imploded and ended shockingly
       | early.
       | 
       | I'm very curious what sort of questions these were.
        
         | CharlesW wrote:
         | Here's some good background:
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/opinion/elon-musk-twitter...
         | (archive: https://archive.ph/IZp4P)
         | 
         | Elon himself said that Twitter "cannot become a free-for-all
         | hellscape", and so advertisers want to understand exactly what
         | the plan is to avoid that given that (for example) Elon laid
         | off 75% of the moderation team.
         | 
         | Pre-Elon, leadership spent lots of cycles building trust and
         | confidence with advertisers, involving them in policy
         | discussions, etc. That is not only no longer happening, but it
         | appears that Elon is blocking people who are asking tough
         | questions.
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/loupas/status/1588599808587345921
         | 
         | For anyone confused about motivations, this isn't about
         | "wokeism" but is straight capitalism. In the same way that
         | airlines don't want their ads to be placed next to coverage of
         | an air disaster, advertisers and agencies need assurances that
         | Twitter isn't on the road to becoming a cesspool, and that
         | their brand/ads won't appear near harmful content.
        
           | cauthon wrote:
           | > In the same way that airlines don't want their ads to be
           | placed next to coverage of an air disaster, advertisers and
           | agencies need assurances that Twitter isn't on the road to
           | becoming a cesspool, and that their brand/ads won't appear
           | near harmful content.
           | 
           | Yep. How many major companies do you recall advertising on
           | 4chan?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | marvin wrote:
           | Hmmm, wonder if it's a freedom of speech issue if a coalition
           | of companies effectively prevent public discussion of issues
           | that might significantly upset the status quo?
           | 
           | Loud, blatant lies that are repeated by authority figures
           | continuously is one thing. That this is bad is almost
           | universally agreed on. But does this advertiser worry really
           | stop at that?
           | 
           | I think this is a very interesting question, hitting at the
           | heart of the Twitter controversy. Advertisers have an
           | _incredibly strong_ influence on contemporary discourse;
           | their concerns influence almost all publicly-visible
           | discussion, opinion and debate. The attention economy,
           | eyeball-and-click-hunting is just the tip of the spear, and
           | this dominates almost every public communication platform in
           | the world.
           | 
           | Elon Musk and his $44 billion <<fuck this shit>> purchase is
           | the only significant challenge to this model. It will
           | _obviously_ upset the advertisers; it's tautological.
           | 
           | Maybe the result is that it won't work, but if it does,
           | Twitter will be the only public communications platform that
           | isn't very heavily influenced by advertisers' interests.
        
             | MonkeyMalarky wrote:
             | He who pays the fiddler, calls the tune. Want to broadcast
             | whatever you want? Fine, pay for it. Want advertisers to
             | subsidize your costs? Don't be surprised that their money
             | comes with strings attached.
        
           | pmoriarty wrote:
           | _" Elon laid off 75% of the moderation team."_
           | 
           | Did he?
           | 
           | According to this BBC article[1], _" Yoel Roth, Twitter's
           | Head of Safety & Integrity, said that most of the more than
           | 2,000 content moderators working on "front-line review" were
           | not impacted"_ by the firings.
           | 
           | More details here[2], where Roth says _" More than 80% of our
           | incoming content moderation volume was completely unaffected
           | by this access change. The daily volume of moderation actions
           | we take stayed steady through this period."_
           | 
           | [1] - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63524219
           | 
           | [2] - https://nitter.net/yoyoel/status/1588657229628321792
        
             | snoopy_telex wrote:
             | Wait. So of the ~3500 employees left at the company, 2000
             | are content moderators?!
        
               | majewsky wrote:
               | Well yeah, what else about Twitter would require that
               | much raw manpower?
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | I wouldn't be surprised if a good chunk of them aren't
               | Twitter employees, but subcontractors somewhere. At least
               | that's what plenty other social media sites do.
        
               | peanuty1 wrote:
               | Isn't content moderation the biggest challenge at
               | Twitter?
        
             | sg47 wrote:
             | it's outsourced to Infosys or TCS
        
             | Yoric wrote:
             | I assume we'll know final numbers once the dust settles,
             | but that sounds not nearly as bad as assumed.
             | 
             | However, my personal experience of Twitter suggests that it
             | remains an open air sewer, which tends to indicate that the
             | content moderation team was already severely under-staffed.
             | I suspect that it's even more true for non-English
             | language.
             | 
             | So, even if _only_ 15% of the content moderators have been
             | laid off, this doesn 't bode well for the future health of
             | conversations on the platform.
             | 
             | Regardless, thanks for the sources!
             | 
             | update: Reading through the source once again, 15% of the
             | T&S team was laid off but we don't have numbers for the
             | number of content moderators who were laid off. I had
             | assumed that content moderators were part of the T&S team,
             | but that may not be true.
        
           | rajin444 wrote:
           | > this isn't about "wokeism"
           | 
           | I'm not sure how you can say that when "woke capitalism" is
           | exactly what we have today. Major brands are downstream of
           | culture, and woke culture is dominant. Cesspool, as you're
           | using it, is synonymous with "not woke".
           | 
           | You're right that it is capitalism, you're wrong that
           | capitalism isn't downstream of culture.
        
             | cma wrote:
             | Antisemitism and other overt racism go beyond "not woke."
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | pmoriarty wrote:
               | Not to mention endless calls to violence, some of which
               | are actually acted on by these "not woke" people.
        
               | cvwright wrote:
               | Agreed that this is a problem.
               | 
               | But there have been calls to violence on Twitter for a
               | long time. Just in Portland, we had 100 days of street
               | violence, a prolonged attempt to burn down a federal
               | courthouse, various attacks on the city mayor, and the
               | attempted murder of a gay immigrant journalist. It wasn't
               | hard at the time to find Tweets planning and celebrating
               | all of this stuff.
               | 
               | If it's truly about violence, why are the advertisers
               | just now getting cold feet?
        
       | LudwigNagasena wrote:
       | This is so vague it literally clarifies nothing.
        
         | dragontamer wrote:
         | Twitter normally sells $600 million to $900 million in ads at
         | this event.
         | 
         | This year, Twitter got nearly none at all. Therefore, Elon gets
         | angry.
        
         | imustbeevil wrote:
         | They pre-sell ads every year. They fucked it up for next year.
         | It was a very easy read.
        
           | LudwigNagasena wrote:
           | Yeah, that was already obvious from the Elon's tweet. That
           | piece adds nothing except for some trivia about a special
           | event for advertisers.
        
             | sosodev wrote:
             | It clarifies that advertisers aren't being persuaded by
             | crazy activists like Elon is claiming..
        
             | dragontamer wrote:
             | The $600 million figure is specific and new to me.
             | 
             | This puts Twitters losses over the next year at nearly
             | $2,100 million by my count. It's no wonder that Elon feels
             | the need to fire everybody.
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | It was not obvious from Elon tweet that the lack of sales
             | already happened back in May. And apparently many other
             | people thought he is raging over events of last week only.
             | Twitter issues are larger then that and started sooner.
             | Firing of account managers or blocking ad buyers on Twitter
             | were just last step in issues.
             | 
             | The special industry event where many companies sell and
             | buy ads a year in advance at discount is the context I did
             | not had and many people did not had.
        
       | russellbeattie wrote:
       | If the ads produce results, then the advertisers will be back as
       | soon as the dust settles. This isn't even a question. Businesses
       | follow the money. If Coke doesn't advertise, Pepsi will happily
       | pick up the slack, etc. It's only a question of short term losses
       | until Musk learns to shut his mouth.
       | 
       | If it turns out ad money is just being flushed down the drain
       | because most of the views are in fact bots, as I suspect, then
       | Twitter has a whole other challenge.
        
       | darkteflon wrote:
       | Huh, it's almost like he has no fucking idea what he's doing.
        
         | qull wrote:
         | Is this considered a constructive comment on HN?
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | rolenthedeep wrote:
       | Thread:
       | https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1588696157794242560.html
       | 
       | Why do people still link to Twitter instead of of nitter?
       | Twitter's ui is the definition of dark patterns and antagonizm if
       | you don't have an account
        
         | makeitrain wrote:
         | Thanks.
        
         | Wowfunhappy wrote:
         | > Why do people still link to Twitter instead of of nitter?
         | 
         | Because Twitter is the original source. When people start
         | publishing on nitter instead, we can start linking there.
        
           | pmoriarty wrote:
           | I always link to nitter's mirror of the twitter thread in
           | question, just because it doesn't require javascript to view.
        
         | stevewatson301 wrote:
         | You could add a user script that redirects from twitter.com to
         | nitter.net or any of the alternative Twitter frontends.
        
           | spoils19 wrote:
           | Agreed, I find it irking that GP is attempting to force
           | others to follow his own standards. So much for free speech.
        
             | nullc wrote:
             | Asking, encouraging, and highlightning the negatives of not
             | doing his way isn't forcing in any way at all.
        
               | spoils19 wrote:
               | What evidence is there of dark patterns or antagonizm?
        
         | CharlesW wrote:
         | I opened the post link in an incognito window and it looked
         | fine. The main difference was a footer asking me to log in or
         | sign up. Maybe all the stuff you remember was removed?
        
           | MSM wrote:
           | I have to be very careful how far I scroll down when reading
           | threads. If I scroll a little beyond the last reply, I get a
           | "See what's happening" full splash screen. Extremely
           | frustrating when you have these X/? Posts and have no idea
           | when the actual end is without checking for existence of the
           | next.
        
           | Xylakant wrote:
           | Try scrolling down. Once you barely touch the bottom of the
           | thread you'll see an overlay that you can't get rid of. Or at
           | least I did.
        
             | CharlesW wrote:
             | Ah, thank you Xylakant and MSM. I don't see that, probably
             | because of NextDNS (a cloud-based Pi-hole+).
        
             | jsnell wrote:
             | You can get rid of the overlay by clicking "login" and then
             | clicking "x" in the upper left corner rather than logging
             | in.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | _Please don 't complain about tangential annoyances--things
         | like article or website formats, name collisions, or back-
         | button breakage. They're too common to be interesting._
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | peoplefromibiza wrote:
       | but, honestly, does it really surprise anybody?
       | 
       | I'm quite sure Musk was expecting this outcome, despite the PR
       | said otherwise.
       | 
       | It's like complaining that Trump failed to make America great
       | again, like that was really his plan.
       | 
       | Or that, in my Country, Berlusconi did not deliver the "liberal
       | revolution" he promised.
       | 
       | They are not there to make anything great, their great plan is to
       | boost their ego, fix their problems, skip jail, and nothing else.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | jokethrowaway wrote:
         | Oh, so many different issues.
         | 
         | Big businesses have an interest in stability (business as usual
         | is predictable) and in being left leaning (pretend to care
         | about people, lobby politicians to lobby for policies that
         | entrench you in a position of power), it's to be expected they
         | won't like change and that they won't like Elon.
         | 
         | I don't think Elon cares too much tbh, he's obviously going to
         | pivot Twitter into something like Line in China which does
         | everything. I'm half expecting payments with crypto soonish.
         | 
         | Trump biggest mistake was not to decrease public spending. You
         | can't really scream at big government while doing exactly what
         | your opponents are doing. He was decent policy wise and was
         | positive for the economy. Overall he did much better than I
         | expected out of a reality show contestant.
         | 
         | Berlusconi did some good things policy wise but ended up facing
         | a system that doesn't want to change. Italy doesn't have any
         | hopes of redemption. The government is designed so that radical
         | change is impossible (it's different in the US). Italy will
         | keep on piling on debt until the government completely chokes
         | the entire population and the country collapses.
         | 
         | Trump and Berlusconi share a lot. Elon is crazy in his own way
         | and pretty different.
        
           | peoplefromibiza wrote:
           | > Berlusconi did some good things policy wise but ended up
           | facing a system that doesn't want to change.
           | 
           | as Italian: Berlusconi is a convicted felon who got into
           | politics to fix his problems with the criminal law and mostly
           | succeeded. he was the first one not wanting to change
           | anything in Italy. He basically stalled my Country for 25
           | years, because that system got him where he is today. Only a
           | fool would kill the golden goose.
           | 
           | Trump is trying to do the same.
           | 
           | it's not a judgment on their political affiliation, which I
           | oppose, but that's not the issue here.
           | 
           | the issue is they are very bad men, with very bad ideals, not
           | surprisingly both of them admire dictators and totalitarian
           | leaders.
           | 
           | Berlusconi is still bragging, still today, about his close
           | friendship with Putin.
           | 
           | Musk is just not a political leader, yet, but as a
           | influencial personality in the tech space his behaviour has
           | been not very dissimilar from the other two.
           | 
           | Using his influence to convince people to support things that
           | would only benefit him? check
           | 
           | Bullying competitors? (via twitter) check
           | 
           | Bullying critics? (via twitter) check
           | 
           | addressing other leaders like a tugh in a street fight? check
           | 
           | seriously, this happened for real! (facepalm emoji)
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1503327421839417344
           | 
           | etc etc
           | 
           | Having said that: one thing is gonna be interesting.
           | 
           | If Elon Musk succeeds to relieve Twitter from his reliance on
           | ads and convince enough people to actually pay for the
           | service, making it a _real_ product, that would make him a
           | great entrepreneur with very bad manners, but still a bad
           | human who is gambling with people 's lives and careers just
           | to prove a point.
        
           | enragedcacti wrote:
           | > Trump biggest mistake was not to decrease public spending.
           | You can't really scream at big government while doing exactly
           | what your opponents are doing.
           | 
           | Of course you can, it has been the republican modus operandi
           | for 40+ years now:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jude_Wanniski#The_Two_Santa_Cl.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.commondreams.org/views/2009/01/26/two-santa-
           | clau...
        
       | iLoveOncall wrote:
       | Is it that big of a deal?
       | 
       | Apparently it represents only 10-15% of the ads for a year, so
       | just a bit more than a month.
       | 
       | Not only that but the fact that it isn't pre-sold due to
       | uncertainty does not mean that it won't be sold later, during the
       | year, when (if) advertisers see that Musk's Twitter isn't that
       | awful after all.
       | 
       | I also imagine that the budget of advertisers that doesn't go to
       | Twitter doesn't necessarily or fully go to other platforms.
       | 
       | Advertisers that wanted to reach Twitter users in 2022 most
       | likely still want to reach Twitter users in 2023, so I'm not
       | convinced that they won't end up giving that money to Twitter
       | anyway during the year.
       | 
       | I wouldn't invest a single dollar in Twitter at the moment (we
       | can't anymore anyway), but this honestly doesn't seem to me like
       | something apocalyptic for them.
        
         | noahtallen wrote:
         | I think part of why it feels like a big deal is because Elon is
         | making it a big deal. (E.g. he has been tweeting and making a
         | big deal about advertisers pulling out)
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | It's 15% to 20% of revenue that you get to lock up in advance.
         | It's a big deal.
        
           | iLoveOncall wrote:
           | Read beyond the first line next time you answer.
        
       | fxtentacle wrote:
       | Wow, isn't this a material adverse event that would allow Musk to
       | renegotiate the price?
        
         | watwut wrote:
         | No. But, it probably cemented twitter decision to insist on
         | selling it. Advertisers being unsure and afraid in between time
         | was know risk (based on what I read about it).
        
         | mmastrac wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure it's too late for that.
        
       | wodenokoto wrote:
       | I find the most surprising thing in this thread that there
       | apparently is an event that sells billions of dollars
       | advertisement space each year. I thought all this happened on
       | online auctions.
       | 
       | I wanna know more about New Fronts.
        
         | CharlesW wrote:
         | If you've heard of TV "upfronts"1, NewFronts2 are the same
         | thing with a focus on digital content. They're marketplaces
         | that bring together brands, creators, advertisers, marketers,
         | and distributors.
         | 
         | 1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upfront_(advertising)
         | 
         | 2 https://www.digitas.com/en-hk/services/newfront
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | If you wanted to buy 10 billion of twitter, you wouldn't use
         | robinhood.
         | 
         | Same deal for advertisers. The premium buys and the big space
         | goes through heavy negotiations (but might be rtb'd for
         | execution as needed)
        
         | ISL wrote:
         | It makes sense that there should be a futures market for both
         | big buyers and big sellers.
         | 
         | Everyone wants at least a little predictability...
        
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