[HN Gopher] Amazon Q3/2022 [pdf]
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       Amazon Q3/2022 [pdf]
        
       Author : ckastner
       Score  : 44 points
       Date   : 2022-10-27 20:05 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ir.aboutamazon.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ir.aboutamazon.com)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | adam_arthur wrote:
       | People are coming to realize that billions in revenue means
       | nothing without any kind of margin.
       | 
       | And Amazon will never have high margins on retail. Their stock
       | has coasted for decades on the belief that they would one day be
       | able to monetize their e-commerce revenue.
       | 
       | Well here we are with over 100B in revenue. Where is the profit?
       | There's a dotcom level come to Jesus moment with the entire tech
       | sector right now. The stories driving many of these stocks were
       | nothing more than fairytales in the end
       | 
       | Cloud will have better margins, but the e-commerce business has
       | been grossly overvalued for a long time.
       | 
       | It doesn't mean they can't be successful, but they will have more
       | realistic valuations going forward, with much less excess
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | > People are coming to realize that billions in revenue means
         | nothing without any kind of margin.
         | 
         | This is not a new realization. A business without margin is
         | called a charity. Everyone from the immigrant family that did
         | not go to college and operates a laundromat to Harvard Business
         | School graduates know this.
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | > they would one day be able to monetize their e-commerce
         | revenue.
         | 
         | They make more on Amazon Ads than Alphabet makes on Youtube. So
         | yes it looks like it's monetized. Even retail has profit. It's
         | just being spent on other growth areas (Alexa, Games, Prime
         | Air, Healthcare etc)
        
           | adam_arthur wrote:
           | No, Amazon had negative margins this and was not profitable
           | this quarter ex AWS
           | 
           | I recommend investing on real data, not what you may imagine
           | up the company is doing
        
       | newaccount2021 wrote:
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | crash.
       | 
       | MSFT -8%, goog -10%, meta -22% and now amzn -20%
        
       | khuey wrote:
       | AMZN is getting hammered after hours but this looks like it's
       | mostly the strength of the dollar that's hurting their business
       | abroad rather than insane amounts of spending.
        
         | samspenc wrote:
         | Also due to their weak outlook for the next quarter (Q4).
        
         | kgwgk wrote:
         | Their domestic business is losing money as well.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | -$20 billion free cash flow can't be good. Not quite meta
         | levels of bad but really not too far off. Retail can't figure
         | out how to make money, even with billions in ad sales.
        
       | StratusBen wrote:
       | "AWS segment sales increased 27% year-over-year to $20.5 billion,
       | or increased 28% excluding changes in foreign exchange rates."
       | 
       | Point 1: AWS is over $80B annualized now. Amazing. Growing at 27%
       | is still remarkable at that scale.
       | 
       | Point 2: Looks like AWS is slowing a bit [probably tempoarily].
       | As someone who focuses on cloud cost optimization for the
       | majority of my time, this lines up with some of the data we were
       | seeing in Q3 in terms of customers scaling back and making more
       | commitments via EDPs, Saving Plans and RIs -- we just published
       | some of this data here: https://www.vantage.sh/cloud-cost-
       | report/2022-q3
       | 
       | [Disclosure, I'm ex-AWS and founder of a cloud cost company named
       | https://www.vantage.sh/]
        
       | chollida1 wrote:
       | Numbers:
       | 
       | - Q3 Sales $127b meets est.
       | 
       | - Q3 EPS $0.28, Est $0.22, nice
       | 
       | - Q3 Operating Margin, 2%, that's tight
       | 
       | - Web services sales of $20B, just shy of estimates
       | 
       | - AWS sales still growing like a juggernaut. Man, google ad
       | revenue, Microsoft business revenue, aaple iphone revenue and aws
       | revenue. You can just always rely on those 4.
       | 
       | - Retail in North America and International both lost money
       | 
       | Interesting:
       | 
       | - amazon head count is 1.5M employees world wide, the new IBM!!
       | 
       | - shares are down but I think its more due to their Q4 guidance
       | than anything in Q3,
       | 
       | - due to amazon guidance for Q4 watch walmart, ebay, wayfair,
       | etc. These should all fall, this is probably the trade to make
       | over trading amazon's earnings
       | 
       | - according to reports a 20% drop, which it is at now, would be
       | its largest since 2006. This is crypto currency or META level
       | lunacy, 100's of Billions just got vaporized in 15 minutes.
       | 
       | - AMZN, no longer a Trillion $ company, luckily that won't result
       | in an ETF outflows:)
       | 
       | Watch for:
       | 
       | - do rising energy costs affect their web services business?
       | 
       | - do rising labour costs affect their retail business?
       | 
       | - do they really want to hire 150,000 people for Christmas like
       | they did last year?
       | 
       | - they've reached GOOG, AAPL, and MSFT size now, growth will be
       | tough. This normally means cost cutting. Watch what the CFO
       | announces around controlling costs.
       | 
       | - now that free money from the FED is truly over, will AMZN focus
       | on cost cutting and mergers to drive revenue over organic growth
       | 
       | - also pointing to cost cutting is the new CEO Jassay is like Tim
       | Cook at apple, a manager not a growth oriented CEO.
       | 
       | - from the CFO "We're takign actions to tighten our belts", there
       | it is. All companies are in full blown cost saving mode now.
       | 
       | - does AWS announce alot more GPU instances now that ETH has
       | merged?
       | 
       | - what does hiring look like with all tech giants cost cutting
       | and with expectations that their stock price will be flat over
       | the next year?
       | 
       | - saw on twitter someone point out that DOGE is up %30 in the
       | past few days while AMZN is down %20. Completely meaningless but
       | kind of funny in a dark way.
       | 
       | - this market is rough and unforgiving:(
        
         | newaccount2021 wrote:
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | > Retail in North America and International both lost money
         | 
         | Is this pretty much proof that anyone even trying to compete
         | with Amazon is basically throwing away money? That general-
         | purpose online retail will simply never be profitable?
        
           | sgerenser wrote:
           | I wonder if "retail" includes Amazon Prime subscription
           | revenue? I doubt there's many people signing up for Prime
           | just for video or the other random perks Prime gets you, it's
           | 98% for the free shipping.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | I think the fact that Walmart/Target/Best Buy/Costco/etc have
           | been earning 2% to 5% profit margins for many decades was
           | proof that general purpose online retail will not be very
           | profitable.
        
         | microtherion wrote:
         | > the new CEO Jassay is like Tim Cook at apple, a manager not a
         | growth oriented CEO
         | 
         | Under Tim Cook, annual revenue grew from $76B (2010) to $387B
         | (2022). That's rather decent growth, especially considering
         | that at Apple's size, growth would presumably become harder and
         | harder to attain.
        
         | gffrd wrote:
         | > amazon head count is 1.5M employees world wide
         | 
         | In 2012, they had 88,000 ... if scaling were linear--which it's
         | not--that averages out to 141,000 people to hire a year.
         | 
         | In a single year, 2019 to 2020, they grew their workforce ~63%,
         | from 798k to 1.3m.
         | 
         | Insane.
        
           | throwayyy479087 wrote:
           | I drove by a billboard earlier that said "Amazon warehouse
           | hiring - no interview required. Show up and get paid!"
        
       | nus07 wrote:
       | Didn't short thinking AWS is minting money. Feel stupid about it
       | lol.
        
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