[HN Gopher] Police Need Warrants to Search Homes. Child Welfare ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Police Need Warrants to Search Homes. Child Welfare Agents Almost
       Never Get One
        
       Author : sudobash1
       Score  : 34 points
       Date   : 2022-10-24 19:04 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.propublica.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.propublica.org)
        
       | lbwtaylor wrote:
       | >> Only about 5% of these kids are ultimately found to have been
       | physically or sexually abused.
       | 
       | That statement tells you a lot about the "article". Only someone
       | with a very strong agenda would view 5% child abuse as "only".
       | "Mission Accomplished" I guess.
       | 
       | The opinion pieces sites one example of overreach by officials.
       | Where are the stories about children saved from abuse? I guess
       | that isn't relevant to the discussion.
       | 
       | One month of her children being taken away is a serious result.
       | But there's a lot at risk here.
        
         | jjk166 wrote:
         | A 95% false positive rate is extremely high, and the cost, both
         | in terms of the emotional health of those involved, as well as
         | the strain on resources for a chronically underfunded public
         | service, is far from zero.
         | 
         | Estimates are that around 16% of children are abused, so if
         | you're only finding 5% it means you're substantially worse at
         | choosing households to investigate than if you were picking at
         | random. Of course that's a national average and some places may
         | be better or worse, but really all that indicates is that
         | resources are being diverted to the wrong areas. Every hour of
         | time and every dollar spent investigating households without
         | good reason is stolen from a victim who truly needed it.
         | 
         | Obviously not every investigation needs to find abuse to be
         | justified, the whole point of the investigation is we don't
         | know if something is wrong or not. But just because there is an
         | occasional success does not mean that the current system is
         | working, nonetheless optimal.
        
           | thwayunion wrote:
           | _> Estimates are that around 16% of children are abused, so
           | if you 're only finding 5% it means you're substantially
           | worse at choosing households to investigate than if you were
           | picking at random._
           | 
           | Sampling iid would be unconstitutional and also obviously
           | politically infeasible. So, the only people who are
           | investigated are people for whom there is probable cause or
           | at least an accusation.
           | 
           | Once you're sampling from a population for whom you have
           | either probable cause or at least an accusation, the group
           | under suspicion probably not an iid sample of the overall
           | population and may even be skewed in the wrong direction. Eg,
           | a physical abuser is more likely to conceal a bruise than the
           | parent of a particularly careless child.
           | 
           | Additionally, suppose for sake of argument that abusers are
           | in fact over-represented in the accused group. The behavior
           | of both abusers and the abused confounds the statistical
           | analysis. Consider alcoholism as an analogy (but also _very
           | correlated_ underlying pathology). Just like with alocholism,
           | there are  "high functioning" abusers who are able to avert
           | suspicion and, in case of suspicion, manipulate the people
           | who they are abusing.
           | 
           | So we are sampling from a constrained population in which
           | abusers may in fact be under-represented, and then again
           | within that group there are confounding issues.
           | 
           | None of this is to say that we should abandon constitutional
           | rights, of course. But in a country with strong protections
           | for the accused we might actually expect certain types of
           | crimes to be _more_ difficult to investigate and prosecute
           | than a  "just iid sample" approach.
           | 
           | (It's also possible that the estimates are wrong, and in both
           | directions. It's additionally possible that the 16% statistic
           | refers to a different definition of abuse than the 5% number.
           | Etc. etc.)
        
           | lbwtaylor wrote:
           | Your suggestion seems to be that requiring warrants is going
           | to make the investigations more efficient (as poorly
           | evidenced cases will not result in a search).
           | 
           | I would love to see evidence there, I think that's wishful
           | thinking. Requiring warrants will simply mean fewer searches.
           | I understand those who think that's a fair balance for
           | individual rights. But I don't see it uncovering more abuse.
           | I see it uncovering less, resources being kept equal.
        
             | thwayunion wrote:
             | A naive interpretation of the statistical analysis,
             | ironically, in fact suggests that we could do better at
             | investigating this crime by simply sampling iid for CPS
             | checks :-\
        
         | jstarfish wrote:
         | > Where are the stories about children saved from abuse?
         | 
         | You won't find them. Taking kids out of dubiously-neglectful
         | households and putting them in foster care does not yield
         | success stories.
         | 
         | CPS does not stop abuse. It just displaces it.
        
         | duskwuff wrote:
         | > That statement tells you a lot about the "article". Only
         | someone with a very strong agenda would view 5% child abuse as
         | "only".
         | 
         | It also entirely ignores findings of neglect. An agent who
         | inspects a home and discovers that the children are sleeping on
         | the living room floor and have no clean clothing, for example,
         | hasn't found evidence that children have been "physically or
         | sexually abused", but has made a finding of neglect which is
         | probably sufficient for intervention.
         | 
         | This isn't to say that there aren't problems here. The article
         | goes on to discuss a number of real problems in home
         | inspections from child services -- but this statistic alone
         | isn't representative of the real situation.
        
         | PortiaBerries wrote:
         | So if 5% of extra-legal searches result in dirt, then extra-
         | legal searches are worth it?
        
           | Volundr wrote:
           | Pretty much my thinking as well. Exactly what % hit rate do
           | we need before we give up on the 4th amendment? 5% seems
           | shockingly low to me.
           | 
           | I'm all for protecting children, but if you have evidence one
           | is being abused... get a warrant! Policing was never supposed
           | to be easy.
        
             | anm89 wrote:
             | Constitutional rights are not supposed to be conditional on
             | some parties perceived utility to society of violating them
             | 
             | I understand you are potentially agreeing with me but
             | framing this this way at all is problematic.
        
         | googlryas wrote:
         | It's 5% of the children in houses they search, not 5% of
         | children. And they're searching the houses specifically because
         | there has been an allegation of abuse or neglect.
        
           | 988747 wrote:
           | Allegations of abuse or neglect are common tactics during
           | custody battle in divorce. I guess that's why only 5% turn
           | out to be true.
        
             | jstarfish wrote:
             | Mandatory reporting also inflates the numbers. Teachers
             | have to report anything they hear, even if it's kids
             | exaggerating obvious nonsense.
        
       | sudobash1 wrote:
       | I appreciate the Miranda-style warning suggestion. I wonder why
       | there haven't been more cases brought up to require Miranda
       | warnings for more situations than just arrests. It is important
       | information for people to know, and good for the authorities to
       | remind themselves of other people's rights.
        
       | 1123581321 wrote:
       | Good reporting. Growing up, the conventional wisdom was that
       | child services would punish families that made them get a warrant
       | with even more unreasonable inspection and a slanted write up. I
       | suspect not much has changed, but this New York law is so
       | oppressive that it's probably worth the community involving
       | warrants more often to force these inspections to become more
       | cursory due to limited resources.
        
       | xupybd wrote:
       | This boils my blood. The state should tread very carefully when
       | breaking up families. Yes some children need protection but when
       | the state starts to take over the role of parents they gain a
       | scary amount of influence of the next generation. I know the
       | intent is very different but this is what the Hitler youth was
       | all about.
       | 
       | My father worked in this field for years. It was a mess. Once
       | public case would occur with a child dying at the hands of an
       | abusive parent. So policy would change. Then there would be a
       | high profile case where they got it wrong and took a child off of
       | a good family. So policy would change again. Every time the blame
       | would fall on the social workers. It nearly broke my dad when he
       | was managing a district branch.
       | 
       | I have no solutions as I want children to be safe at home but it
       | sucks from every angle.
        
         | thwayunion wrote:
         | _> I know the intent is very different but this is what the
         | Hitler youth was all about._
         | 
         | This is wildly inaccurate. The Hitler youth was a fully
         | voluntary group -- in fact, at times exclusionary _even among
         | favored in-groups_. It was more like what would happen if you
         | combined elite prep schooling, the youth wing ( "Young _s") of
         | a fringe political party, and scouting into a single
         | organization. This didn't change until 1936, and even then, the
         | upper ranks of the group were dominated by the description
         | above.
        
           | xupybd wrote:
           | My point wasn't the the mechanism is identical it's that the
           | utility or the possible utility is manifested in the Hitler
           | youth. I'm not saying the Hitler youth was compulsory or that
           | state influence need to be compulsory to arouse my concern.
           | 
           | Having an arm of the state that focuses on installing values
           | in children can allow bad things to happen. Families can
           | install bad values in children but the distributed nature of
           | families mean the system is a little more stable, as you're
           | less likely to see the same bad values installed en masse.
           | However, this does happen as problem cultures arise in
           | populations. We see this particularly in urban gangs. But
           | even in this instance the concentration of power is reduced.
        
             | thwayunion wrote:
             | _> Having an arm of the state that focuses on installing
             | values in children can allow bad things to happen... But
             | even in this instance the concentration of power is
             | reduced. _
             | 
             | The Hitler Youth makes, if anything, the exact opposite
             | point. What the Hitler youth demonstrates is that a
             | movement that focuses on installing their values in
             | children can use radicalized youth as a powerful component
             | in their push toward fascist revolution. This is why the
             | German response to the Hitler Youth was to criminalize the
             | organization, not to dismantle child welfare laws.
             | 
             | The entire discussion is a red herring because "installing
             | values in children" is not the goal of child welfare
             | agencies.
        
               | xupybd wrote:
               | Correct the goal of child welfare agencies is not to
               | install values in children. However, when the state has
               | to step into raise children, the state has no choice but
               | to install values in those children.
               | 
               | In my original comment I said "when the state starts to
               | take over the role of parents they gain a scary amount of
               | influence of the next generation". This is one of the
               | many downsides of state welfare having to go in. I'm not
               | denying the need. It's just one of the many problems
               | involved.
               | 
               | > What the Hitler youth demonstrates is that a movement
               | that focuses on installing their values in children can
               | use radicalized youth as a powerful component in their
               | push toward fascist revolution
               | 
               | This is exactly my point.
        
               | thwayunion wrote:
               | _> > What the Hitler youth demonstrates is that a
               | movement that focuses on installing their values in
               | children can use radicalized youth as a powerful
               | component in their push toward fascist revolution_
               | 
               |  _> This is exactly my point._
               | 
               | Child protection agencies are not a movement.
        
               | xupybd wrote:
               | >Child protection agencies are not a movement.
               | 
               | I agree.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2022-10-24 23:02 UTC)