[HN Gopher] Why are there so few dead bugs on windshields these ...
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       Why are there so few dead bugs on windshields these days?
        
       Author : bookofjoe
       Score  : 372 points
       Date   : 2022-10-24 02:44 UTC (20 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.washingtonpost.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.washingtonpost.com)
        
       | donedealomg wrote:
        
       | Baader-Meinhof wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/20221021230011/https://www.washingtonpost...
        
       | theGnuMe wrote:
       | We've had a couple polar vortexes that sat over us for a few
       | days. Those temps tend to kill off a large number of bugs. Then
       | it's been drier than normal and I mowed back the long grasses
       | that abut the property all of which reduced the bugs.
        
       | vlovich123 wrote:
       | To everyone replying "aerodynamics", I've had the same car for
       | about 9 years now and the drive along the 5 from Bay Area to LA
       | feels like there's fewer bugs on my windshield (granted not
       | recorded diligently for scientific purposes but whereas before
       | I'd need to scrub the windshield at least once halfway these days
       | I can drive all the way and still don't need a wash at the end)
       | 
       | Same goes for the argument that bugs have evolved to migrate away
       | from the roads - the 5 has been a busy thruway for a long time
       | with lots of cars and trucks.
       | 
       | The article is short but says scientists have clear data that
       | populations have plummeted and the larger vehicle consumer trend
       | + more people on the road means that there's fewer bugs to
       | encounter per windshield on top of that.
        
         | deafpolygon wrote:
         | What if, with more cars and bigger windshields, we're just
         | grabbing less and less of these bugs due to more of them being
         | killed by other cars / trucks?
        
         | another_story wrote:
         | I actually find it rather interesting how many people here, in
         | a forum I generally assume to be better informed than
         | elsewhere, seem wholly unaware of the dramatic decrease in
         | insects over the last few decades.
        
           | Beltalowda wrote:
           | People who think they know better are more likely to comment
           | than those who will simply say "huh, interesting!" You will
           | often get a somewhat biased set of comments.
        
           | fireflash38 wrote:
           | I mean, hop into any threat remotely related to COVID and
           | you'll see people come out in _swarms_ of common science
           | denial.
           | 
           | Just because people might be knowledgeable about certain
           | technologies doesn't make them knowledgeable about anything
           | else. In fact I'd argue that it heavily biases them to making
           | more mistakes in other fields, especially considering that
           | many tech problems are 'solved' by going to a search engine
           | -- that's not a good way to do science.
        
           | aredox wrote:
           | Strong "I am very smart" contrarian energy here.
           | 
           | See also this tale:
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2376002/
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | stinos wrote:
           | I also find it rather interesting to see talks about insect
           | decline while it's only one part of the larger issue, rated
           | by some as important as the climate crisis: the biodiversity
           | crisis. Dramatic decreases are happening for way more species
           | than just insects.
        
             | a1445c8b wrote:
             | But is it "only one part" or more like a reliable indicator
             | of the overall ecological health?
        
               | stinos wrote:
               | Both?
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | Also, the "bugs evolve away" would need evolutionary pressure
         | being involved. But the explanation I got was the available
         | biomass for bugs is such that any chunk of bugs killed on the
         | road was _easily_ filled by other bugs eating their lunch and
         | procreating.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | Also note that "species are evolving to adapt to XYZ" really
           | means "everything that can't deal with XYZ is dying". If the
           | ecosystem just doesn't have _any_ species that can deal with
           | XYZ, then that part of the ecosystem _just dies_.
        
           | orlp wrote:
           | > Also, the "bugs evolve away" would need evolutionary
           | pressure being involved
           | 
           | I do not claim that evolution is the reason for the reduction
           | in dead bugs, but if "go near road" has a increased risk of
           | death due to automobiles, there absolutely is selective
           | pressure to not "go near road". Bugs that get killed by cars
           | don't procreate (again) after all.
        
             | queuep wrote:
             | I read last week about mooses avoiding certain hunting
             | spots during hunting season.
             | 
             | Link in Swedish, not sure how scientific this is but...
             | 
             | https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/mQQWbO/algarna-
             | overlist...
        
               | denton-scratch wrote:
               | Is "moose" a word like "sheep", that is it's own plural?
               | (I honestly don't know, but "mooses" sounded odd).
        
               | magicalhippo wrote:
               | Many much moosen
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/CafPNEWnDhk
        
               | someweirdperson wrote:
               | My guess would have been meese. Luckily, all the
               | information is out there.
               | 
               | > "plural moose or (dated, rare) mooses or (non-standard,
               | jocular) meese" [0]
               | 
               | [0] https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/moose
        
             | actionfromafar wrote:
             | Yes but the pressure is weaker than one might intuitively
             | guess. There are billions of bugs. Even near roads, very
             | few of them are going to be hit by cars, comparatively.
             | Near roads there often are ditches with some water or
             | moisture, making an environment otherwise beneficial for
             | bugs.
             | 
             | Also, decreased road side windshield bug smashing coincides
             | with measured loss of insect biomass:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_insect_populations
             | 
             | Disputing that feels more and more like disputing global
             | warming being a thing.
        
               | orlp wrote:
               | > Disputing that feels more and more like disputing
               | global warming being a thing.
               | 
               | There's a reason I started my comment with "I do not
               | claim that evolution is the reason for the reduction in
               | dead bugs". I was just nitpicking and not trying to be
               | the devil's advocate.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | > Same goes for the argument that bugs have evolved to migrate
         | away from the roads
         | 
         | There are many studies in all kind of environments, even in the
         | middle of the woods, in natural reserves; insects are going
         | down both in term of diversity and numbers everywhere
         | 
         | They're being evolved away by pollution
        
           | jvm___ wrote:
           | NY state has a long running study where on July 15th every
           | year they would put up a super bright lighthouse bulb in the
           | middle of the woods and put it over a tarp. After they night
           | they'd weigh the physical mass of insect life that had come
           | to the light, and died, overnight.
           | 
           | I forget the exact %, but they'd seen a 50 or 60 percent
           | reduction in mass since the 70's, some depressingly high
           | number.
        
             | donkeyd wrote:
             | I don't think this would stop anyone from using the
             | evolution argument, since in their mind this would just
             | show that they evolved to not fly towards the deadly light.
        
               | BenjiWiebe wrote:
               | One bulb, one night, once a year wouldn't be enough to
               | select for light avoidance.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | xattt wrote:
         | > To everyone replying "aerodynamics", I've had the same car
         | for about 9 years now and the drive along the 5 from Bay Area
         | to LA feels like there's fewer bugs on my windshield (granted
         | not recorded diligently for scientific purposes but whereas
         | before I'd need to scrub the windshield at least once halfway
         | these days I can drive all the way and still don't need a wash
         | at the end)
         | 
         | Hasn't California had extremely climate events over the last
         | decade (wildfires, ongoing drought)? Given that bugs tend to be
         | sensitive to air quality, this would likely local population
         | decline which would then lead to the effect you've observed.
         | 
         | I welcome anyone to come to Prince Edward Island and enjoy the
         | many, many mosquitos and midges our Island has to offer. They
         | can be heard as small "pops" while driving.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | saltcured wrote:
           | Yeah, I certainly don't doubt that there are global changes
           | going on, but that particular drive along I-5 is confounded
           | by many other local variables.
           | 
           | I too notice changes in the amount of bugs having driven that
           | route periodically for about 30 years. Due to economic and
           | weather conditions over decades, there are very obvious
           | changes in whether you are driving by grassland, irrigated
           | crops and orchards, defunct and desiccated crops and
           | orchards, or graded and developed human environments. The
           | road has also widened and gotten much more traffic.
           | 
           | The general trend is more human presence year over year, but
           | the agricultural activity is more cyclic. As I understand it,
           | these areas are only viable to irrigate in wet years, because
           | the senior water rights are held and used much further north
           | and east along the CA-99 corridor. In droughts, these more
           | recently developed farms dry up first.
           | 
           | It's also of course very seasonal, with bug populations
           | booming and then disappearing much like wild flowers and
           | migrating bird flocks along the same route. In the heaviest
           | bug carnage periods, driving this section of I-5 can be like
           | driving through the US midwest during a grasshopper or cicada
           | boom.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | A boom of one particular species is not necessarily
           | indicative of a healthy ecosystem. We don't welcome algal
           | blooms as signs of life bouncing back; rather, they are
           | brutally disruptive to ecosystems. They leave mass death in
           | their wake. Without a closer study of which species you're
           | observing (they might be human-borne invasive species after
           | all), it's not really easy to say if what you're seeing is
           | healthy at all. And the timescales are important. This year
           | or this decade might be a boom and 20 years from now they've
           | managed to deplete their environment of resources and crash.
        
         | fullstop wrote:
         | The last time this was discussed I found some articles showing
         | that the more boxy and angular windows of older vehicles were
         | less likely to have bugs smashed on them. This is why these
         | studies often use license plate splatters to get a better count
         | -- that really hasn't changed.
        
           | nawgz wrote:
           | > some articles showing that the more boxy and angular
           | windows of older vehicles were less likely to have bugs
           | smashed on them
           | 
           | Do you mean "more likely"?
           | 
           | > This is why these studies often use license plate splatters
           | to get a better count -- that really hasn't changed
           | 
           | Do you claim the amount of license plate splatters remains
           | consistent today as, say, 30 years ago, or some other time
           | frame? I think this claim really needs to be sourced, can you
           | produce these studies you allude to? Thanks
        
             | fullstop wrote:
             | No, I absolutely meant "less likely". The bugs don't hit as
             | often against the old vehicles. The older boxy vehicles
             | were more likely to push the insect away, while the modern
             | aerodynamic vehicles allowed the bug to hit the windshield
             | more frequently. I'll see if I can find the study, I don't
             | have it handy at the moment.
             | 
             | As for the license plates, they are no more aerodynamic
             | than they were 30 years ago, which makes them a better
             | source for insect measurement.
             | 
             | Edit: relevant discussion from a few months ago:
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31275879
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | > As for the license plates, they are no more aerodynamic
               | than they were 30 years ago, which makes them a better
               | source for insect measurement.
               | 
               | I agree with this, but not the claim that there are
               | studies showing this number is consistent with the past.
               | The linked discussion also seems to imply that sampling
               | rate corresponds with the decline in insect populations,
               | unless I missed something.
        
               | fullstop wrote:
               | I've not said that they (bug splatters) are consistent
               | with the past. Perhaps my wording wasn't the best, but I
               | was trying to say that the aerodynamic properties of a
               | license plate have not changed.
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | I see, "that really hasn't changed" was a statement on
               | aerodynamics and not volume of insect collisions. Thanks,
               | I agree with what you're saying, good tidbit about the
               | more aerodynamic cars leading to lower probability of
               | insect survival.
        
         | oxfordmale wrote:
         | Same tests have been run on licence plates. As they have
         | remained in a similar position for decades, aerodynamics is
         | clearly not the major contributing factor.
        
       | tejohnso wrote:
       | Maybe because we're in the midst of an anthropogenic mass
       | extinction?
       | 
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704949114
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction
       | 
       | "The contemporary rate of extinction of species is estimated at
       | 100 to 1,000 times higher than the background extinction rate"
       | 
       | "the current rate of extinction is 10 to 100 times higher than in
       | any of the previous mass extinctions in the history of Earth."
       | 
       | "There is widespread consensus among scientists that human
       | activity is accelerating the extinction of many animal species
       | through the destruction of habitats, the consumption of animals
       | as resources, and the elimination of species that humans view as
       | threats or competitors."
        
         | pharke wrote:
         | Genuinely curious but how is this
         | 
         | > "the current rate of extinction is 10 to 100 times higher
         | than in any of the previous mass extinctions in the history of
         | Earth."
         | 
         | an accurate statement when there have been a few mass
         | extinction events that were (apparently) caused by sudden
         | changes?
         | 
         | Is this assuming that the Triassic-Jurassic extinction event
         | was caused by gradual changes instead of an impact or volcanic
         | event? Same for the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) extinction? I
         | think there are also a number of extinction pulses in the
         | record that could be attributed to sudden events although I'm
         | unsure of how they compare in terms of the number of species
         | affected.
        
         | Zigurd wrote:
         | This should be obvious. There is some good news in that the
         | human population is plateauing, and is projected to gradually
         | decline, as a result of urbanization, educated women, mass
         | entertainment, secularism, and other influences.
         | 
         | If we want a natural world around us, we have to leave a lot of
         | it natural. Sometimes it reminds us that's not really an
         | option, but a requirement for survival. One thing we will learn
         | from space colonies is that humans cannot thrive in a
         | monoculture surrounded by sterility.
        
       | Roark66 wrote:
       | Swallows. That and the fact wild animal populations swing widely
       | to extremes sometimes. I have been paying close attention to
       | swallows in recent few years and the numbers of them as well as
       | the bugs they eat are skyrocketing in my area. When I moved to
       | the area it was essentially empty field a couple hundred meters
       | from anything. The farmer owning it converted a bit in the middle
       | into residential building plots, a road was built, electricity
       | hooked up etc. Most of the people that buy those plots do it as
       | an investment so they don't do anything to them. I have observed
       | over last 10 years how nature took over those plots. Hay that
       | grows and is not mowed accumulates and besides being a fire
       | hazard provides an environment for birds to nest in. Wild trees
       | have grown to the point one wouldn't recognise it was a field a
       | decade ago. I regularly have hedgehogs, hares, deer, lots of all
       | kinds of birds (including a golden Eagle once). Every year there
       | are huge numbers of swallows come in the spring. As of last 2
       | years there have been moose and even wild wolves. Yes, wolves, in
       | a middle of Europe in 2022. I have photos of their dinner I once
       | found in addition to other info.
       | 
       | People don't realise nature is very resilient and it will move
       | into every area that is not polluted with toxins. Even with
       | toxins or radiation (like the famous Chernobyl exclusion zone)
       | nature evolves to deal with it.
        
       | unglaublich wrote:
       | Pesticides and crop mono-cultures. There is no place for insects
       | to live.
       | 
       | When 0.1% of humans dies of a virus, we call it a disaster. When
       | 50% of insects dies, we don't give a damn.
        
         | OnuRC wrote:
         | Insects are disgusting if we and nature could live without
         | them, that would be amazing.
        
         | dsfyu404ed wrote:
         | Insect populations are declining in places like New England and
         | the upper midwest despite farming both declining and finding
         | more efficient ways to use fertilizer and pesticides on the
         | same timeline.
         | 
         | If we're going down the road of human introduced chemical
         | toxins (like pesticide pollution) I think a fair bit of blame
         | also deserves to be laid at the feet of the state (and by proxy
         | voters) for poisoning the soil immediately adjacent to roads
         | (and to a slightly lesser degree, the watersheds) with various
         | salts.
        
         | o_1 wrote:
         | Farming bugs is next. Bug monoculture is up at bat, nothing can
         | go wrong there.
        
         | Beltalowda wrote:
         | I actually don't care at all if an insect lives or dies.
         | Insects do not have emotions; no other insects mourn if one
         | dies. This makes them markedly different from humans and other
         | animals; insects are little more than machines and from a moral
         | perspective much closer to bacteria than, say, mice.
         | 
         | The only reason I care is because of the broader ecological
         | effects. I don't care whether my gut microbes live or die
         | either, if it wasn't for the health effects it would have on
         | me.
        
           | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
           | Ants are certainly smarter than mice.
           | 
           | Ants also have a complex range of psychological responses.
           | (Not sure I'd call them "emotions" since we're obviously too
           | distantly related to them to have a meaningful reference
           | here, but whatever.)
        
             | Beltalowda wrote:
             | Ants have very interesting learning behaviour, but I don't
             | think you can really say they're "smarter" than a mouse, or
             | even "intelligent" (depending on your exact definition of
             | that). You can teach a computer English better than the
             | average human (see e.g. Grammarly), but that does not make
             | the computer smarter. The learning behaviour of ants is
             | certainly amazing, but very limited in scope.
             | 
             | Ants can response to their environment, but are they even
             | "psychological responses" or just a piece of machinery
             | responding in a pre-programmed way? When I played the Sims
             | 20 years ago my characters would respond in certain pre-
             | programmed ways. None of can truly _know_ what it 's like
             | to be an ant, but given the tiny size of their brains
             | compared to higher animals I think it's fair to say the
             | machinery for any kind of emotion just isn't there.
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | > or just a piece of machinery responding in a pre-
               | programmed way?
               | 
               | Is a mouse responding in a pre-programmed way? I'd say
               | you're just showing mammalian bias here.
               | 
               | > given the tiny size of their brains compared to higher
               | animals I think it's fair to say the machinery for any
               | kind of emotion just isn't there
               | 
               | First of all, a whale isn't necessarily smarter than a
               | monkey just because it has a much bigger (physically)
               | brain. Secondly, an individual ant really isn't, because
               | genetically the ant colony is a single unit.
        
               | Beltalowda wrote:
               | > Is a mouse responding in a pre-programmed way?
               | 
               | All life is to some level - including your and me - but
               | that doesn't mean there aren't distinctions.
               | 
               | > a whale isn't necessarily smarter than a monkey just
               | because it has a much bigger (physically) brain
               | 
               | I claimed that brain size is deterministic of
               | intelligence, but it's not as if _any_ brain of _any_
               | size can do _anything_ ; there are real physical limits
               | here. Ant brains are tiny, and ants are probably the
               | _smartest_ insects: others have even smaller brains.
               | 
               | Either way, I'm mostly interested in the emotional
               | experience of insects and other animals, rather than
               | intelligence. I think that's a more important factor in
               | deciding whether inflicting harm is morally acceptable or
               | not.
               | 
               | Mice, of course, are also not especially clever or have
               | rich emotional lives in the same way that a dog or pig
               | might have, but there does seem to be _some_ of it,
               | whereas I 'm not seeing any in ants or other insects.
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | I keep an ant colony as a pet. Ants are pretty much
               | indestructible creatures from a physical point of view -
               | they need infinitesimal amounts of food and water to
               | survive, they don't get sick or hurt, but they're very
               | succeptible to stress. They're nervous creatures and go
               | nuts from stress, acting in illogical and even suicidal
               | ways.
               | 
               | Is it because their primitive brains go haywire? Or is
               | this just our mammalian prejudice speaking? Who knows.
               | 
               | Probably best not to anthropomorphize any animal, I
               | think.
        
           | root_axis wrote:
           | > _Insects do not have emotions_
           | 
           | Why wouldn't they?
        
           | luch wrote:
           | fascinating answer from someone who chose the nickname
           | "beltalowda"
        
             | Beltalowda wrote:
             | Why? What do Belters have to do with insects?
        
           | Deegy wrote:
           | I know what you mean. The foundational support beams on my
           | house are starting to rot away. I don't care how they feel,
           | but I hope my house stays upright.
        
           | Der_Einzige wrote:
           | This thinking reminds me of the moral crisis that lagoshi
           | from beastars has of the idea of killing an insect.
           | 
           | The scene is very well done. His imagination of the insect
           | anthropomorphized is absolutely fascinating...
        
       | jiggawatts wrote:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_Spring
        
       | lynguist wrote:
       | I've noticed the same with snails. When I was a child in the 90s,
       | the sidewalks were full of snails, and during a 10 minute stroll,
       | I'd often find tens of small snails.
       | 
       | Today I find 1 or 2 snails after rainfall, if at all.
        
         | onion2k wrote:
         | Do you still live in the same place you grew up?
        
           | lynguist wrote:
           | Yes.
        
         | psychphysic wrote:
         | With snails I suspect its more to do with how a child behaves
         | and an adult.
         | 
         | I collect snails from my garden to eat and numbers are fairly
         | similar despite my occasionally trying to control them with
         | pellets some years.
         | 
         | Similarly with the original article I only got half way down
         | but clearly it's more to do with cars than insect numbers.
        
         | marcyb5st wrote:
         | Fireflies for me. I live in Italy and between the vineyards it
         | was full of them. Now I occasionally see one or two. It's a
         | pity not only because it is a concrete sign of habitat
         | degradation, but it was also mesmerizing to walk and have them
         | filing around you. Something my kids won't experience.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | Between two long trips to Italy in my childhood, the
           | fireflies we could see from the terrace of a small B&B we
           | stayed at in a small village not far from Genoa is one of my
           | most enduring memories.
        
             | marcyb5st wrote:
             | Yeah, they are amazing. I'm not sure about Liguria, but
             | where I am from (Garda Lake on the Veneto side) they
             | basically disappeared.
        
               | nonninz wrote:
               | As a child in the 80s I was living in a house with a
               | large garden area (fasce) in Genova, just a bit removed
               | from the bulk of the city.
               | 
               | Every summer evening the house and surrounding garden
               | were filled with fireflies, it was mesmerizing.
               | 
               | Thanks for making me remember this :)
        
           | mealkh wrote:
           | For quite some time I thought fireflies were made up, as I
           | have never in my life (and I do live in a rural region) seen
           | one.
        
         | scld wrote:
         | I'm sure it's a regional impact on different types of
         | creatures. I don't notice windshield bugs but my back patio in
         | the city gets dozens of snails after every rainfall to this
         | day.
        
         | Gordonjcp wrote:
         | You can come here and take away all the snails you want. It's
         | impossible to walk around at night without stepping on them,
         | and they have utterly destroyed my garden. I've never seen a
         | crop of kale or broccoli fail in 30 years until this year.
        
       | nspattak wrote:
       | I bought my first motorcycle in 2004 and my 2nd in 2007. I rode
       | 45k km with the first one over these 3 years (mostly on my
       | island) and 80k km with the 2nd one between 2007-2015. I can
       | confirm that the amount of bugs crashing on my helmet's visor is
       | definitely less. I used to clean it after riding for an hour but
       | now I can do 4-5-6h and still have no real need to clean it.
        
       | TEP_Kim_Il_Sung wrote:
       | Lots of dead bugs in Texas, California, and Oregon.
       | 
       | A mild winter with an early spring, followed by a cold winter
       | relapse, will also do in a lot of bugs.
        
       | Eumenes wrote:
       | this is not my experience in new england, where i can't even
       | stand out in my backyard without getting swarmed with all variety
       | of insects, and my truck is absolutely plastered from them, even
       | though its been cold for a month now
        
       | mkl95 wrote:
       | An Occam's razorish answer is that there are fewer bugs nowadays
       | in whatever area this phenomenon is observed. So a better
       | question could be why are there fewer bugs?
        
       | julienreszka wrote:
       | There are so few bugs on YOUR windshield because they all decided
       | to go on mine.
        
       | dcdc123 wrote:
       | I just drove from Albuquerque to Phoenix via Flagstaff and my
       | entire windshield is plastered with bugs.
        
       | didgetmaster wrote:
       | My car was covered with bugs after a recent trip, but hard to say
       | if that anecdata is any indication of actual insect population
       | stability. If insect populations are truly in decline, it is hard
       | to see how insecticides used on crops could be responsible for
       | massive worldwide reductions.
       | 
       | Here is an interesting breakdown of how much of the world's
       | surface (particularly the part that includes habitable land) is
       | used to grow crops: https://ourworldindata.org/land-use (TLDR: it
       | is a very small percentage)
        
       | LordHeini wrote:
       | Having super quick evolution cycles, could it be that insects
       | evolved to avoid roads?
       | 
       | I remember the story of a species of moths living in German
       | industrial cities.
       | 
       | These were normally brown like tree bark but evolved to look like
       | sooty brick in a few years.
       | 
       | Insects have ears (although highly varying in capability) which
       | could lead them to avoid dangerous zones.
       | 
       | Anecdotally i would say i see fewer insects circling around lamps
       | too.
        
         | kapsi wrote:
         | >These were normally brown like tree bark but evolved to look
         | like sooty brick in a few years.
         | 
         | Because the brown ones got eaten. But that's different from
         | evolving to recognize where a road is, which is maybe possible
         | but probably would take thousands or millions of years.
        
         | goodpoint wrote:
         | > Having super quick evolution cycles, could it be that insects
         | evolved to avoid roads?
         | 
         | No.
        
       | 01100011 wrote:
       | I can only comment on my neighborhood in the south SF bay area.
       | Given that the region is a former home to orchards it doesn't
       | surprise me that there is a lack of insects, but given the amount
       | of trees/greenery vs my old SoCal neighborhood I can say that
       | there is a startling lack of bugs here, with the exception of
       | cockroaches(several varieties are disturbingly plentiful on the
       | sidewalks at night), isopods/woodlice/pill bugs, and black widow
       | spiders. Going on hikes in the Santa Cruz mountains, it also
       | seemed like there were a shortage of insect life compared to
       | hikes in SoCal.
        
       | nobodyandproud wrote:
       | Aside from pesticides and land development, yet another cause of
       | decline is our over obsession with landscaping and municipal
       | lights (at least here in the Northeast US).
       | 
       | I have mixed feelings about this: Night lights do add a bit of
       | security, but insects such as moths rely on natural darkness and
       | moonlight to navigate.
        
         | gs17 wrote:
         | > Night lights do add a bit of security, but insects such as
         | moths rely on natural darkness and moonlight to navigate.
         | 
         | We can have a bit of compromise, at least if we had dark sky
         | compliant lights there would be a lot less of an issue. Where I
         | live the streetlights seem to intentionally point upward and
         | it's frustrating that this isn't a priority even when refiting
         | them with LEDs (at least here they put in warm lights instead
         | of cool ones like where I used to live).
        
         | axiolite wrote:
         | > another cause of decline is our over obsession with
         | landscaping and municipal lights
         | 
         | Very much unlike their incandescent and florescent
         | predecessors, LED lights emit practically no ultraviolet
         | wavelengths, and therefore have a drastically reduced
         | attractive effect on insects. Whatever effect outdoor lighting
         | may have on insects, should be showing precipitous declines
         | over the past several years, as LEDs have become the dominant
         | artificial light source.
        
           | nobodyandproud wrote:
           | Insects are most attracted to UV, but they're attracted to
           | most of the visible (to human) spectrum.
           | 
           | Just less so, which is why the recommendation is to use
           | "warm" led to minimize insect attraction.
           | 
           | Also, light usage hasn't remained constant. LED's lower power
           | usage means that it enables more lighting, including solar
           | powered (day charged) landscaping lights.
           | 
           | So whereas owners would formerly only have one or two lights
           | at low watts before, the reduced energy usage means that they
           | sprinkle in another magnitude more with LED.
        
       | glanzwulf wrote:
       | I guess whatever reason it is local, because last summer drove
       | from Lisbon to Berlin and this summer drove from Berlin to Milan
       | and every time I stopped at a gas station I had to clean the car
       | because boy did it have A LOT of dead bugs.
        
         | throwaway24124 wrote:
         | Completely anecdotal, but this does seem to be a North American
         | issue, I did a two week roadtrip through Croatia this year and
         | I had to stop just to clean bugs off the car more often than
         | stopping just for gas. I've done quite a few roadtrips in
         | America and never once had to stop just to clean bugs off the
         | windshield.
        
           | pmontra wrote:
           | It's possible that it's happening more in NA, but the article
           | started with a research made on Denmark roads 1996-2017 with
           | a 80-97% fall of insect splats in the period.
           | 
           | Anecdotally, I hardly had to clean my windscreen when I was
           | living in a city. I'm living in a small town with fields all
           | around it now and I never have a clean windscreen anymore.
           | However nothing like the one in the first picture of the
           | article. That's how my front license plate looks like.
        
           | glanzwulf wrote:
           | Yeah, I do quite a lot of road trips and that is always a
           | pain. Thankfully all gas stations even have the bucket of
           | water and the scraper to clean off the bugs.
        
       | jollyllama wrote:
       | Did anybody else notice that the windshield bugs made a comeback
       | during the pandemic?
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | Scary thing is how many people don't consider this to be scary.
       | 
       | If we were to blame anyone, we should blame ourselves. But I'll
       | return to that in a moment.
       | 
       | We live in a complex system, so we can blame the
       | political/financial system for providing wrong incentives, loans
       | and subsidies to the big agriculture, based on profitability
       | alone.
       | 
       | We can blame agriculture companies for sprayng millions of tons
       | of poisons all over our countryside to keep profits up and costs
       | down. When you're planting monocrops, and spraying it with
       | pesti/herbicides, you're propagating environmental equivalents of
       | deserts. Deserts leaking poisons not only on itself, but through
       | whole nature (through wind & water cycle).
       | 
       | Both pesticides and herbicides are inbelievably poisonous not
       | only to plants and pests, but also to other bugs (we all know at
       | least about bees), to all other animals, the animals we feed with
       | the produce, and in the end, even to humans. Those poisons'
       | bioaccumulate and their neurodegenerative and hormons-altering
       | effects are causing havoc not only in bugs, frogs and mice, but
       | also in humans (parkinson, etc.).
       | 
       | The solution is something we're actively killing with our current
       | agricultural practices. Biodiversity.
       | 
       | For example, we don't need to kill the mice with poisons. We can
       | interplant trees into our fields to provide living space for
       | predators (e.g. owls and foxes) to manage the mice population and
       | not use the poisons to keep those predators alive.
       | 
       | We can't reasonably expect the return of an army of small
       | farmers, providing local communities with poison-free grown food,
       | not in a reasonable time frame we have until environmental
       | collapse and/or extinction of key animal kinds (no pollinators,
       | no birds, no small predators, more mice, more bad bugs and
       | diseases, famines ...).
       | 
       | But what we can do, we can change our habits. We don't have to
       | eat meat/dairy, which is incredibly land/resource/poison
       | intensive (we would need 4+ earths to feed the world's population
       | same diet as americans have). We don't have to feed other animal
       | 20x more food than we would need only to eat its muscles. We
       | don't have to cut down forests to grow meat (we would need 1/4 of
       | the land to feed the population if everybody were to switch to a
       | plant based diet), if we eat the plants ourselves and let the
       | nature be and let it repair itself.
       | 
       | We can then change the political/financial/agricultural system
       | through our own actions (buying/cooking/eating). When enough
       | people do, there won't be the pressure to produce a much as we
       | currently do, then we can legislate the change in the agriculture
       | , forbid use of poisons, protect the ecosystems, reforest the
       | earth, live in sync with the nature, stop exploiting everything
       | (and living beings) with our need for financial gains.
       | 
       | Sorry for my bad english. Also, I'm in the system, it's monday,
       | no time to write shorter comment, and no time to incorporate
       | everything-that-is-wrong and everything-that-should-be-done. It's
       | a complex system. But it can be solved in our own kitchens.
        
       | wazoox wrote:
       | This article is pretty characteristic of the chemical industry
       | influence trying to muddle the waters.
       | 
       | I've watched recently a conference[1] by several renowned
       | scientists. They affirm that neonicotinoids / neonics are
       | responsible of at least 80% of the decline.
       | 
       | They also affirm that the "merchants of doubt" are working their
       | best to muddle the evidence with things like "there are multiple
       | factors", "it's complicated", "we need more research" etc.
       | 
       | But just like the overwhelming majority of lung cancer comes from
       | smoking, the overwhelming factor in insects decline (and its
       | consequences like birds decline) is PESTICIDES and neonicotinoids
       | in particular.
       | 
       | [1]: sorry, in French :
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FQT7b2ExP4 Another one:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLQKs1KBw9Y
       | 
       | Other articles:
       | 
       | https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/neonicoti...
       | 
       | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
        
         | alexpotato wrote:
         | > But just like the overwhelming majority of lung cancer comes
         | from smoking
         | 
         | This is true.
         | 
         | It's also true that less than 30% (in Europe as low as 15%) of
         | smokers get lung cancer. [0]
         | 
         | I point this out b/c I always believed that "if you smoke, you
         | will get lung cancer" whereas the data was "if you get lung
         | cancer, odds are it's from smoking"
         | 
         | I wish that more information was presented this way but I also
         | get that if your goal is to stop smoking then saying "smoking
         | == lung cancer" is a better persuasion play than "odds are you
         | won't get lung cancer if you smoke"
         | 
         | 0 - https://www.canceraustralia.gov.au/resources/position-
         | statem...
        
           | triceratops wrote:
           | Smoking increases your risks for a lot of things besides just
           | lung cancer. I never thought of lung cancer as the only bad
           | outcome of smoking in my impressionable years.
        
           | m00n wrote:
           | It is also true that this a 500fold increase in prevalence
           | when compared to the general population.
           | 
           | The 5-year survival rate of lung cancer noticed due to e.g a
           | sore throat is below 10%.
        
           | wazoox wrote:
           | Overall about an half of all smokers die of tobacco-related
           | disease. It may be lung cancer, throat cancer, various
           | digestive cancers, heart attack, aneurysm and all sort of
           | painful diseases. Lung cancer is just the most obvious one.
           | 
           | My neighbour looked like just out of a zombie film complete
           | with rotting, stinking lumps of flesh hanging from the side
           | of his jaw and slime / pus dropping from his mouth for _two
           | frigging years_ (throat and jaw cancer, got fed by catheter
           | for 18 months too). He had to get sure no child was around
           | before getting out, because the view would have traumatized
           | them.
           | 
           | My sister-in-law died three months after retiring of a
           | blazing-fast brain cancer, just a couple of days before
           | Christmas. First symptoms mid-November. At least it was
           | somewhat fast.
           | 
           | Just don't smoke. Don't.
        
           | simplicio wrote:
           | 30% seems like a lot!
        
       | lnxg33k1 wrote:
       | Maybe they learned how traffic light work
        
       | dncornholio wrote:
       | So we've been killing bugs with our windshields for decades and
       | we wonder where they are? I'll rest my case!
       | 
       | Jokes aside, I don't think we take into account how many bugs
       | we've killed with windshields, are we?
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | I thought the same for a long time, surely it has an effect ?
        
       | np- wrote:
       | Totally anecdotally: I have to scrub a thick layer of bugs off my
       | motorcycle helmet after every single ride but almost never off
       | the windshield of my car. Though this could also be a function of
       | where I'm going (typically rural back roads on the bike and
       | highway/interstate in the car), but even then I'm still not sure,
       | since there is a decent amount of overlap in local routes
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | The old cars I ride in don't get the bug salad or yore either.
        
         | Roark66 wrote:
         | There is nothing that gets one to zip up their motorcycle
         | jacket quicker than getting hit with a large bug in the chest
         | while doing 100kmh(60mph).
        
           | criddell wrote:
           | When I got my first motorcycle, the thing that surprised me
           | the most was how much rain hurts on bare skin at 60 mph.
        
         | Moru wrote:
         | Yes, the modern car windshields have a much flatter angle than
         | old cars but it's not as news worthy. :-)
        
           | boffinism wrote:
           | I mean, it's quite news worthy. The Washington Post dedicated
           | large parts of an article on insect population decline to
           | exploring it.
        
           | andirk wrote:
           | Implies a VW Bus gets the most bugs? Bart and Sideshow Bob
           | got a lot of bugs on the Wright Brothers plane [0] .
           | 
           | [0] https://youtu.be/RD77nyoEyug?t=112
        
             | doublesocket wrote:
             | Having had a VW bus all my life I can confirm they do get a
             | lot of bugs, but far fewer these days. In the 80s my father
             | used to try all manner of cleaning products to try and
             | remove them but it's not such an issue any more.
        
           | pcl wrote:
           | Interestingly enough, the article itself discusses
           | aerodynamics.
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | So better aerodynamics is squashing less bugs ?
           | 
           | I think this is real, I'm traveling and borrowed a relatives
           | car which is much lower profile and more sleek than my old
           | Jeep. I was driving through the countryside the other day and
           | there were a lot of critters flying about, I was surprised
           | that often, they'd sort of just get "pushed" over the top of
           | the car. Not sure what happened to them after that but yeah!
        
             | psychphysic wrote:
             | I did some googling to find a comparison of old and new
             | cars in wind tunnels without much luck but this articles
             | cover is fairly good[0].
             | 
             | > Not sure what happened to them after that but yeah!
             | 
             | One thing I did find is that for aerodynamic purposes the
             | one place cars _want_ turbulence is right behind them in
             | their wake to disrupt a vacuum.
             | 
             | So I expect those bugs get smashed into the ground or even
             | sucked into the radiator of any close behind cars as that
             | air seems quite stagnant right behind a car.
             | 
             | [0] https://eu.seacoastonline.com/story/special/2017/01/09/
             | cars-...
        
           | klabb3 wrote:
           | They account for this factor, and several others, in the
           | study. There's an world wide decimation of insect
           | populations, and it has received minor coverage relative to
           | its likely significance to ecosystems.
        
             | alphabetting wrote:
             | what significant effects could there be on ecosystems by a
             | decline in bugs? (I'm sure there are some, just curious)
        
               | cad1 wrote:
               | Think of a food chain, bugs are near the bottom meaning
               | they are a food source for many other creatures like
               | birds, reptiles, small mammals, fish. Fewer bugs means
               | less food for mice, that means fewer mice, leads to less
               | food for snakes, leads to fewer snakes, leads to less
               | food for birds of prey, leads to fewer birds of prey.
               | There are many chains like this where bugs are a vital
               | source of food. If there were zero bugs then these chains
               | would collapse. Also, bugs are needed to pollenate many
               | fruit bearing plants.
        
               | mjhay wrote:
               | Also, a huge portion of food production is dependent on
               | bees and other pollinators.
        
       | zoklet-enjoyer wrote:
       | I remember a drive from Devils Lake, ND to Rugby, ND (~60 miles)
       | less than a decade ago. The bugs were so bad I had to stop and
       | clean my windshield twice because I couldn't see.
        
         | jrumbut wrote:
         | I had the same thing happen in very rural Northern Quebec, plus
         | the road construction workers wore bee keeper type outfits.
        
       | cryptonector wrote:
       | This isn't true. When I go out to the countryside my windshield
       | gets very dirty. And by countryside I mean just up the road from
       | here, about 40 minutes out.
        
       | barbariangrunge wrote:
       | What are they talking about? Driving on highways around here is
       | like being in a hailstorm or bugs
        
         | PM_me_your_math wrote:
         | Author lives in DC and apparently hasn't been anywhere else. I
         | have noticed more bees, wasps, hoverflies, mosquitos, katydids
         | and a host of other insects, more so than ever.
        
       | pfdietz wrote:
       | I wonder if it's some introduced wide spectrum insect pathogen.
       | Sort of like that fungus that's devastating amphibians around the
       | world? If so, the part of the world that pathogen came from would
       | not be seeing these declines, since the insects there would have
       | long before evolved to deal with it (as amphibians in SE Asia, I
       | think it was, apparently have done with that fungus.)
       | 
       | Possibly some strain of Wolbachia?
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolbachia
        
       | luxuryballs wrote:
       | why not just natural selection? the bugs that got splatted never
       | got to lay eggs
        
       | chs20 wrote:
       | Honestly, I had tons of bugs on my windshield this summer.
        
       | cainxinth wrote:
       | The fireflies and ladybugs may be disappearing, but gnats and
       | spotted lantern flies are suddenly everywhere by me (Northeast
       | U.S.)
        
       | wyldfire wrote:
       | If glyphosate+surfactants affects apis, maybe there's other
       | insects that are susceptible too.
        
       | globalise83 wrote:
       | Probably a large part is due to the increased frequency of cars
       | inside broadly the same volume of road space. Assuming that you
       | have the same number of bugs per m^3 and the same number of bugs
       | entering per m^3 per minute as before, then bugs splattered per
       | car will change in inverse proportion to cars per minute.
        
         | badtension wrote:
         | I think you grossly overestimate how much space does car
         | infrastructure hold in relation to literally millions of km^2
         | of free space around it. Assuming your observation is right its
         | impact would be minuscule.
        
           | globalise83 wrote:
           | But we're not discussing the free space around roads, I'm
           | talking about the width of the road X length of road X 2.5m
           | where the bugs get splatted. If there are more cars
           | travelling in that space, fewer bugs will be splatted by each
           | car even if the level overall remains the same.
        
             | badtension wrote:
             | I see what you mean. This still seems far fetched
             | especially when taking into account rural and remote places
             | where even doubling the traffic would mean passing 1 car
             | every 10 minutes.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | That or the fact that insect population has been proven to
         | decline over and over pretty much everywhere in the world
         | including natural reserves
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_insect_populations
        
         | IncRnd wrote:
         | There are fewer bugs that hit the windshield even when on a
         | rural interstate.
         | 
         | There are many areas that have cars but aren't in the middle of
         | cities or in areas with high traffic.
        
       | fleddr wrote:
       | Here in the ultra-dense Netherlands, threats to insects are
       | magnified. As such, it's easier to point to specific causes.
       | 
       | Butterflies: 50% reduction in 50 years. Beetles: 75% decline
       | since 1985. Ladybugs: 50% reduction in 20 years. Across the
       | border in Germany: a 75% decline in flying insects since 1989.
       | 
       | It doesn't take much of a scientist to see the trend. I've been
       | hiking the forests here multiple times per week for 20 years. You
       | can clearly see how some groups are disappearing whilst others
       | remain.
       | 
       | There's several root causes but the primary one is a lack of
       | native plant diversity. Since agriculture over here is done in
       | close proximity to forests, the soil becomes acid due to the
       | nitrogen disposition. This benefits the growth of a handful of
       | plants at the expense of all others. In some of our forests, the
       | soil is now so acid that snails no longer develop a case and bird
       | eggs collapse.
       | 
       | In this plant monoculture, insects depending on a specific host
       | plant disappear. Outside (protected) forests, things aren't much
       | better. Even the tiniest of strips of grass that would normally
       | produce wildflowers, are aggressively mowed down. People's
       | gardens are designed to be as hostile to insects as is possible.
       | 
       | Secondary reasons are invasive species and light pollution.
       | 
       | It's a sad state of affairs and one we should be deeply ashamed
       | of. We're not talking about some iconic predator requiring
       | hundreds of acres of wild forest just to survive. We're talking
       | about insects that require little space, healthy soil, a flower,
       | and for it to be left alone. We can't even offer that.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | > some groups are disappearing whilst others remain
         | 
         | Speaking of those that remain, I can say beyond reasonable
         | doubt that there is an insane percentage increase in stinkbug
         | populations in recent years. Fuckers get absolutely everywhere.
        
         | bmitc wrote:
         | And what's crazy is that everyone thinks it's going to be
         | electric cars that somehow saves us. When the fact of the
         | matter is there is a ton of stuff we can start doing _today_
         | that would positively impact the environment.
         | 
         | It's pretty easy:
         | 
         | * Restore lawn areas to native plants: small (wildflowers),
         | medium (bushes), big (trees)
         | 
         | * For areas that are kept as lawn, simply mow less. Allow
         | plants to flower. Don't treat clover as evil. Support multiple
         | grass types. Stop using chemical fertilizers and stop trying to
         | feed the grass. Feed the soil with organic fertilizers and
         | compost.
         | 
         | That's it! It reduces maintenance costs and time, reduces the
         | use of gasoline, reduces noise pollution, and vastly improves
         | soil health, insect and wildlife health, and increases
         | pollination of our own food. It's a literal win-win.
         | 
         | And yet, no one does it. They turn their lawns into wastelands
         | and _never even use them_. I 've heard that lawns should be
         | compared to deserts but that even that is disregarding the
         | biodiversity that deserts have over lawns.
        
           | garfieldnate wrote:
           | I was surprised when I moved into a German apartment that my
           | landlord apologized about their being moss between the tiles
           | on our patio. My honest response was, "oh no, moss looks
           | better than an empty crack." I was really surprised when I
           | for the first time saw people outside literally using blow-
           | torches to kill moss in their driveway cracks. The dislike of
           | clover is a really strange one for me, too. When I was
           | growing up I loved the clover patches in the yard; they're
           | like green clouds floating across the lawn, and the
           | honeysuckle brings happy honey bees. Dandylions are pretty,
           | too, admittedly more so in the yellow phase than the gray
           | phase. But then they make nice toys! Generally speaking I
           | find the natural aesthetic more beautiful and more serene
           | than the golf course look.
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | I'm totally with you.
           | 
           | I'm annoyed by the climate change (CO2) narrative. It is far
           | too narrow. Rather we should be talking about an umbrella of
           | unsustainability that includes wildlife decimation,
           | biodiversity collapsing, pollution, overfishing,
           | deforestation, water and air quality.
           | 
           | We shouldn't just live in a way that expels less CO2, we
           | should live in a way that doesn't annihilate the biosphere.
           | 
           | And yes, gardens are a great personal way to make a start.
           | Mine too has native flowers which attract lots of insects, in
           | turn attracting birds and bats. Plus some mini ponds. It's
           | far less work compared to a sterile garden whilst much more
           | fun.
        
           | namaria wrote:
           | There is no salvation. Whatever was Earth before human
           | civilization is in a death spiral. What comes next is
           | anyone's guess. Elites are massing wealth to get off planet,
           | and when the mass migrations really start and mid income
           | countries start becoming failed states on their path, I hope
           | you are in a place that can hold you safe for the remainder
           | of your time here.
        
             | bmitc wrote:
             | I believe that if we acted today, that there could be
             | salvation. Institute massive taxes against plastic use. Ban
             | it for take-out food and other single-use instances. Start
             | heavily taxing other wasteful areas. Heavily encourage if
             | not enforce composting and recycling.
             | 
             | Immediately start restoring mowed lawns with native plants.
             | Ban the use of chemical fertilizers.
             | 
             | It could be done, but we won't. Salvation is at our
             | fingertips, but we close our fists.
        
               | chasil wrote:
               | Humans are not particularly destructive to the planet.
               | 
               | Comparatively, "the great dying" was a much more profound
               | event, and quite beyond our capability.
               | 
               | Even pushing our planet out of the current icehouse will
               | likely require much, much more co2.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Ear
               | th
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | We can't design a solution for the problem of 'too many
               | humans devouring Earth's resources'. Locusts can't make
               | plans. Galaxies cannot deviate from collision. I don't
               | understand why we harbor fantasies about being anything
               | other than a natural process that will simply run its
               | course.
        
               | bmitc wrote:
               | That's an interesting perspective. In many ways, it seems
               | to me that evolution did not or cannot account for
               | technological development. I have been trying to read
               | more about what makes life go, and it seems it's highly
               | related to thermodynamics and information theory.
               | 
               | Are you proposing that any life will eventually discover
               | technology (namely the ability to access and manipulate
               | stored energy and also computation)? If so, it's possible
               | that life is accounting for it in ways we don't
               | understand yet.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | Whatever we call technology is as natural a process as
               | everything else systems in our Universe cobble together.
               | I see no difference between termite mounds and the
               | Internet. All is bound by the laws of physics. The same
               | processes created complex monkey brains create
               | datacenters. Physics is very clear: only things that are
               | thermodinamically downhill can happen. Human civilization
               | is just a natural, 4D phenomenon we get to see unfold.
               | All in all it won't amount to more then any passing
               | geological pattern on any planet before or since.
        
               | javajosh wrote:
               | That's just because humans have not yet acted coherently
               | yet as a species. There are all kinds of scenarios likely
               | and unlikely that can unfold and none of us know what
               | they are. Nature may be indifferent but she does seem to
               | give us every chance.
               | 
               | By the way, I think you're in a tiny minority if you
               | believe there is no distinction between things that
               | evolve and things that are designed.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | I wouldn't me making this argument if I thought everyone
               | thought like me. We have a great capacity for
               | understanding and changing nature, yes. And also the need
               | to believe we are apart and special. But we're not. High
               | rise buildings and fiber optic cables are as natural as
               | anything else that grows on the planet. Drawing a line
               | and calling "artificial" or "designed" on this side is
               | completely arbitrary.
        
               | javajosh wrote:
               | I get what you're saying, and I actually like it. I
               | myself have called Life a singular phenomena that
               | describes a (very) complex 4D shape of which we humans
               | are all just a part (and as a group are currently only
               | about as impactful as a large asteroid!). But if you
               | follow this to far you get some nasty results, mostly
               | around a feeling of inevitability and hopelessness, which
               | I honestly don't think has a rational basis. The world is
               | _strange_ and even one good idea, one chance, could turn
               | things around for Life in general, and humans in
               | particular. It certainly needs to be a big change,
               | something like a  "phase shift" in human affairs. We
               | certainly cannot bring our traditional values into the
               | future, which were predicated on living in a world that
               | would push back against our ambitions. Nowadays, the ONLY
               | thing restraining humans is humans, and yet self-
               | restraint has never been so out-of-fashion.
        
               | saxonww wrote:
               | If we ban chemical fertilizers (what does this include,
               | btw?), will we be able to grow enough food to feed
               | everyone? What else would have to change to make that
               | possible?
        
               | ls15 wrote:
               | Permaculture is soil- and insect-friendly and can be
               | productive and resilient, but it requires more manual
               | labor and setting up a permaculture system takes a lot of
               | knowledge and I think it takes years before it is
               | producing competitively, depending on the soil
               | conditions.
               | 
               | If we ban synthetic fertilizers (and more importantly
               | herbicides/pesticides) abruptly before having established
               | organic methods at scale, that will most likely cause
               | food insecurity like it did in Sri Lanka.
               | 
               | Slowly phasing them out to a level that is not killing us
               | in the long run seems more sensible to me.
        
               | bmitc wrote:
               | I was thinking of banning them for residential use and
               | then re-evaluating their use in commercial agriculture
               | industries. There's no reason that I can think of that
               | they should be used in residential applications. All they
               | do is keep grass artificially green and destroy soil
               | health.
        
             | bcrosby95 wrote:
             | I hate to break it to you, but Earth before humans has
             | largely been dead for hundreds or thousands of years,
             | depending upon the exact region you're talking about.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | lol talk about human centric dellusions and an example
               | walks into the conversation
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | nathan_compton wrote:
             | If elites think they can move off planet and somehow
             | survive a total collapse of earth's ecosystems, they are in
             | for a rude awakening. An independent colony able to
             | maintain its inhabitants in any kind of comfort will be
             | dependent on the earth for the foreseeable future.
             | 
             | Its actually difficult for me to believe that any elite
             | would be stupid enough to think they could survive an earth
             | environmental catastrophe in space.
             | 
             | I'm pretty sure at least some of them are dumb enough to
             | think they can survive it on earth, though. And they might
             | be right!
        
               | zeruch wrote:
               | "Its actually difficult for me to believe that any elite
               | would be stupid enough to think they could survive an
               | earth environmental catastrophe in space." You
               | underestimate the raw power of untethered hubris, fueled
               | by venality.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | It's a catch all metaphor. Most likely we will see some
               | version of fortress Europe and the US devolving to
               | frontier economy. Frontex is already getting bigger
               | budgets, more boots on the ground and better kit with
               | each passing year.
        
             | dilap wrote:
             | If you watch high-altitude time-lapse photography, human
             | settlements look exactly like a mold infestation. We spread
             | as much as we can, and eventually we'll collapse as we
             | exhaust resources.
             | 
             | The earth won't "care", it'll just be another of the many
             | boom-bust cycles in the history of nature. We're part of
             | it.
             | 
             | It's not going to be pleasant for the humans and animals
             | that live through it, though!
             | 
             | While we have enough individual intelligence to see this is
             | coming, and wish to avoid it, I don't think we collectively
             | have the intelligence to do so. A crowd of humans has its
             | own dynamics and kind of thought, and so far, these crowds
             | are very short-sighted and prone to all sorts of
             | irrationalities and hysterias.
        
             | Cryptonic wrote:
             | I think it's a fantasy of the elites. There is no planet B.
             | Not in the time frame we talk about. By far.
        
               | bmitc wrote:
               | I agree that it's a fantasy. For one, I think Mars is
               | just a power play by the likes of people like Musk and
               | Bezos. It doesn't even make sense to view Mars as a
               | backup for Earth because, at least currently, Earth is
               | still alive and Mars is already completely dead. It's
               | like saying "we're going to kill off the only planet that
               | can sustain us to get to a planet that cannot sustain
               | us". It's mind boggling that we can get people excited
               | about electric cars and Mars but cannot get those same
               | people to realize the reality that Earth is the only
               | planet _known to mankind_ that can sustain us.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Bezos' space corporation, Blue Origin, hasn't yet reached
               | the orbit - after 22 years of continuous work. So it
               | seems safe to say that Bezos does not place much value on
               | space colonization.
               | 
               | Musk, on the other hand, seems to be obsessed by the Mars
               | project.
        
               | hedora wrote:
               | As far as I can tell, humans can't survive for extended
               | periods of time in gravity as low as it is on Mars.
               | 
               | There's also the problem of surface radiation. Given that
               | we can't figure out how to build subterranean cities at
               | scale on earth, I'm not sure what the plan is for dealing
               | with that.
               | 
               | Honestly, a self sustaining space station seems easier to
               | achieve than a self sustaining Mars base:
               | 
               | You can spin the space station up to 1 G, park it behind
               | a celestial body that acts as a radiation shield and
               | power it with nuclear, or beamed solar power.
               | 
               | Maybe I'm missing something obvious about the relative
               | difficulty of the two problems.
        
               | bmitc wrote:
               | My general sentiment is that it seems much, much easier
               | to just keep Earth sustainable rather than trying to make
               | an unsustainable planet sustainable. It's sort of a
               | paradox. If we can't keep a sustainable planet
               | sustainable, how can we possibly make an unsustainable
               | planet sustainable and keep it that way?
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Because keeping the Earth sustainable means reaching
               | consensus among 200 states and 8 billion people? That is
               | a political/legal problem, and I am not sure why it
               | should be "much, much easier" than first settlers
               | terraforming an otherwise empty planet.
               | 
               | It seems wrong even to compare those two tasks. They are
               | so different that they don't seem to have a common
               | metric. An analogy: is is easier to stop two spouses from
               | quarreling or to write a SHA-256 implementation from
               | scratch? How would that even be measured?
        
               | raffraffraff wrote:
               | At least writing a SHA-256 implementation from scratch is
               | theoretically possible. The point is, it is possible to
               | keep Earth habitable, were just not doing that. But there
               | is no plan B. In other words, we're fucked.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | Look I get it, dismissing part of my comment on
               | technicalities makes it seem less likely to play out. But
               | the fact remains that we are clearly headed for disaster
               | and rich people are clearly hoarding as much money as
               | they can to prepare. To hyper focus on tearing apart just
               | one outlandish way in which the elites might or might not
               | seek safety is its on form of denial.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | I wouldn't get so annoyed by it. Nerds will nerd and pick
               | apart trivialities. I get your point that the rich are
               | planning for this. Whether they do it by building
               | underground bunkers, space stations, or communities are
               | mars is moot. I'll add though that I don't think it's
               | worth concerning ourselves what the super rich are up to.
               | 
               | The rich killed Rome too and they still ended up with no
               | society.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | "Given that we can't figure out how to build subterranean
               | cities at scale on earth"
               | 
               | Can't we, or there just isn't any economic case for it?
               | 
               | Cold War militaries were certainly capable of building
               | massive buried structures when needed:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%BDeljava_Air_Base
               | 
               | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proto_(Bunker)
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | Yes it's a fantasy at this point, but a fantasy that a
               | lot of very smart people and a lot of resources are
               | pursuing. They might succeed. I won't make the call. But
               | plan B clearly is some sort of Fortress Europe and god
               | knows what cyberpunk western is in store for the US. It's
               | plain to me the rich are bracing for disaster and see the
               | rest of us as fodder. At this point the best we can do is
               | pick a place least likely to be overrun in our lifetime.
               | I'm thinking Norway or Switzerland.
        
               | sillystuff wrote:
               | As long as the elites believe they have a plan B, whether
               | it be New Zealand or Mars, they will not make the
               | sacrifices necessary to avert disaster.
               | 
               | The author writes on his experience with a group of
               | elites who were seeking ways to protect their positions
               | in the face of collapse (societal / ecological / etc.).
               | Salvation will not come from the top.
               | 
               | https://archive.ph/AABsP
               | 
               | original: https://onezero.medium.com/survival-of-the-
               | richest-9ef6cddd0...
        
               | raffraffraff wrote:
               | Nobody is making it off earth. And it's not just elites,
               | we're all shitting in the drinking water to some degree,
               | and we're all stuck here. I don't know anybody
               | (personally) who actually makes significant lifestyle
               | sacrifices that curb their impact on climate change. My
               | wife and I are vegetarian, have no kids, don't own a car,
               | and haven't been on a plane for years. I don't know any
               | other person in the "first world" who lives the way we
               | do. I'm not saying this because I think I'm better than
               | other people or because I'm some type of activists. Far
               | from it. Our lifestyle choice is comfortable physically
               | and is the only one that makes me comfortable
               | psychologically. I rarely mention this stuff online, and
               | I never bring it up with friends of family. But every
               | person I know in my age group lives a "typical Western
               | life". Cars. Kids. Meat-rich diet. Several flights a
               | year. Plastic bullshit on their lawn at Halloween and
               | Christmas. And yet they also demand to know what the
               | elites and politicians are doing to save the planet.
               | Because they sure as shit don't think it's their job.
               | 
               | I'm not saying "this is _your_ fault ". But I think that
               | these elites you want to blame are as clueless and
               | selfish as every other person you know.
        
               | sillystuff wrote:
               | Vegan. Grow much of my own food (mill my own flour,
               | etc.). I lived without electricity or running water for
               | most of a decade '00s (and only added a small DC only
               | solar system for electric lighting for the rest of that
               | decade). I continue to maintain a small footprint, but
               | electric lighting, refrigeration, heat in the winter and
               | hot and cold running water are pretty great (hot and cold
               | running water is fucking amazing!), and I don't want to
               | give those up again. But, none of that matters as much as
               | my being a US citizen. The US military has CO2 emissions
               | larger than 140 countries combined. My share of those US
               | military emissions made my carbon footprint very high
               | throughout the 00's in spite of near zero personal
               | emissions. Presently, the US pushing for sanctions on
               | Russia, led to much higher carbon footprint LNG being
               | shipped to Europe to replace Russian pipeline gas (US
               | oligarchs are making a killing selling LNG, though). Etc.
               | 
               | If everyone, in the developed world, made similar
               | personal choices, to the two of us, things would be
               | better, but it would still be insignificant compared to
               | US policy decisions like the massive US military
               | perpetually deployed across the world. And, if the entire
               | world's population was able to share in hot and cold
               | running water, heat in the winter, electric lighting,
               | refrigeration, etc., much of those gains from personal
               | choices of westerners would be negated.
               | 
               | I don't know the answer. Yes, a lot of people need to
               | reduce their waste, and share with the rest of humanity
               | and non-human life. But, it will not be enough-- somehow
               | we must change governmental and corporate policies.
               | 
               | As things currently stand, the average American has near
               | zero impact on policy decisions[1]. While our rich and
               | powerful elites are driving us off a cliff. The change we
               | need will not be led by them, but in the current climate,
               | a revolution, in the US, is highly unlikely, and if it
               | were to happen would likely result in an extreme far-
               | right authoritarian/theocratic regime even more extreme
               | than the individual enrichment at any cost, "drill baby
               | drill," right to far-right regime that currently rules.
               | And, the US currently controls much of the world (see all
               | western nations observing US illegal sanctions against
               | 1/4-1/3 of the worlds population and also providing
               | support for recent US illegal wars of aggression). Maybe
               | the rise of China will save us, if the US elites do not
               | lash out in desperation to maintain power and e.g., cause
               | a nuclear holocaust. But, pinning hopes of halting
               | environmental destruction on China is a slim hope.
               | 
               | It is difficult to not lose hope.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27074746
        
             | yamtaddle wrote:
             | > Elites are massing wealth to get off planet
             | 
             | Well... no. They're prepping to move to compounds in New
             | Zealand. Even a global warming (and nuclear war, let's
             | throw that on the pile!) ravaged Earth is _vastly_ easier
             | to live on than, say, Mars. Trying to escape that way would
             | be a frying-pan-into-the-fire plan.
             | 
             | > and when the mass migrations really start and mid income
             | countries start becoming failed states on their path, I
             | hope you are in a place that can hold you safe for the
             | remainder of your time here.
             | 
             | But yeah, that's basically the reason why, I reckon.
             | Somewhere sufficiently stable and liberal that's also
             | really, really hard to reach without a ship or airplane.
             | Avoiding the various climate refugee crises and wars we're
             | likely to see in the coming decades probably is their
             | motivation. New Zealand's a clear front-runner in that
             | race.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | The compounds in NZ, mountaintops, deserts, islands, they
               | are the now. There is clearly a drive to get off planet.
               | It will most likely fail but it's happening.
        
               | raffraffraff wrote:
               | Humans will never make it off earth. Perhaps we'll make
               | extremely brief flights, like the flying fish.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | Sad thing is, we're probably gonna repeat our horrible
               | colonial history, but with space ships.
        
           | zikduruqe wrote:
           | https://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-stupid-is-our-
           | obsession...
           | 
           | This is a good read/listen.
        
           | Cryptonic wrote:
           | Fun fact. In Germany this decline is measured in nature
           | reserves.
           | 
           | The petrochemical pesticides play a big roll.
           | 
           | Just forbid them.
        
         | newsclues wrote:
         | Is there a push to move to smaller regenerative farms
         | occurring?
        
           | chickenimprint wrote:
           | How would that work? We don't have enough land as it is. And
           | we can't pay for the additional labor small farms need, or
           | food inflation will explode.
           | 
           | Making agriculture unproductive will just push the demand
           | outwards like a beaker of toxic reactants boiling over. We
           | can't impose more trade restrictions on foreign agricultural
           | goods either, for fear of a trade war.
           | 
           | This hopeless romanticism of small organic mom-and-pop
           | farming is misguided. The only solution I see is huge, highly
           | efficient, automated, but also highly regulated farms. That,
           | and veganism.
        
             | fpoling wrote:
             | The current agricultural land in US alone can easily feed
             | by various estimates at least 2 billions people. The
             | trouble is that most of it is used to grow corn etc. to
             | feed animals in the industrial meat production.
        
               | skrbjc wrote:
               | One third is used for animal feed, a third for ethanol to
               | blend into gasoline and a third for food consumption
               | directly.
               | 
               | To me it seems like the ethanol production part would be
               | the easiest to put towards human consumption.
        
             | bbarnett wrote:
             | _We don 't have enough land as it is._
             | 
             | Only discussing the land statement here, but we have loads
             | and loads and loads of unused farmland.
             | 
             | At least, that is true in Canada, and I suspect the US, and
             | I know in the EU some are paid not to farm.
             | 
             | In Canada, we have quotas on some things, to prevent over
             | production.
             | 
             | There are two real issues:
             | 
             | * drought, or summers with few sunny days, reducing yields
             | 
             | * random new diseases
             | 
             | So we need that fallow land, just in case, which is why
             | people are given inventives to have farm land, but not use
             | it.
             | 
             | Yet we still have so much farm land, that we sell the best
             | of it to developers, who then create housing.
             | 
             | We have loads of unused farmland.
             | 
             | One last thing. China's population is going to almost
             | halve, over the next 15 years, Russia will have a major
             | population decline, and the most industrialized nations are
             | the same.
             | 
             | Canada has solved this top heavy, old age die off, with
             | immigration. More than 30% of Canadian citizens, for
             | example, we not born in Canada.
             | 
             | But for those with lower immigration numbers, and low birth
             | rates (basically the entire industrialized world),
             | populations will plummet by 30% to 50% in the next 25
             | years.
             | 
             | China had the one child program, and the birth rate in
             | Canada is less than 1 for every 2 adults, for Canadians
             | boen here. The rest of the West is the same.
             | 
             | So worldwide, our population will plummet very soon.
        
               | rmah wrote:
               | Yes, especially on the east coast, vast swaths of what
               | was once farmland and pasture is now forest again. For
               | example, most of Connecticut's forests were cut down for
               | not very productive farms before good transportation
               | infrastructure allowed that activity to be moved to more
               | suitable areas. It's now forest again and atlantic salmon
               | are back for the first time in a century.
        
             | newsclues wrote:
             | Same way it did before we had industrialized
             | (petrochemical) agriculture.
             | 
             | More people working on farms. More people living close to
             | farms. More animals on farms.
             | 
             | Should lead to healthier lifestyles and diets. Better
             | environment for people and the planet (and all the
             | creatures including BUGS).
             | 
             | Time to make the old new again, and stop building suburbs
             | on farm land.
             | 
             | All of this is possible and logical, but there is a massive
             | propaganda machine that is convincing people otherwise.
        
             | SuoDuanDao wrote:
             | >we don't have enough land as it is
             | 
             | Small farms are _more_ productive per acre [1] even before
             | considering the increased fossil footprint of  'efficient'
             | farms.
             | 
             | >we can't pay for the additional labor small farms need, or
             | food inflation will explode.
             | 
             | Additional unskilled jobs might well be worth the tradeoff,
             | particularly for the most vulnerable members of society.
             | 
             | >This hopeless romanticism of small organic mom-and-pop
             | farming is misguided.
             | 
             | Russia's Dacha model produces something like 60% of the
             | country's food through hobby 'farms' that regular people
             | mostly go to on the weekends. It's not a hard model to
             | replicate, I'm planting a food shrubland in my suburban
             | home. It won't produce a large part of my food budget but
             | it'll certainly be resource-positive as opposed to a lawn.
             | My labour inputs I'd spend at a gym otherwise. As work-
             | from-home becomes more normalized, the average garden size
             | will probably increase. The problem isn't economic but
             | cultural.
             | 
             | >huge, highly efficient, automated, but also highly
             | regulated farms. That, and veganism.
             | 
             | There seems to be a correlation between belief in factory
             | farming and veganism. Those stances align on pathos but
             | diverge on logos and ethos.
             | 
             | [1]1https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S
             | 03043...
        
               | mantas wrote:
               | > Russia's Dacha model
               | 
               | Well, the hard part to replicate is destroying economy to
               | force people to use those collective gardens. Shops were
               | next to empty. Commercial variety was non existent. The
               | rigid command economy didn't allow enterprise to address
               | needs. Thus you had 2 ways to have good food - relatives
               | in countryside or your own collective garden lot.
               | 
               | It's both economy in culture. Here in Lithuania those
               | gardens survived well into 90s. During the transition,
               | many people went on to do substance farming in addition
               | to day job. Or, if they were unemployed, in exchange of
               | it. But now people work cushy jobs and less and less
               | people do that. It's down to gardening enthusiasts in the
               | young generation. And even then the pattern is completely
               | different. More about trying out exotic stuff for shit
               | and giggles. Rather than aiming for good amount of food
               | and then conserving it for the winter. Energy costs
               | probably make it cheaper to buy jam rather than cook it
               | too...
        
               | rmah wrote:
               | The linked study uses data from peasant farms in
               | developing economies (Madagascar, India, etc.) from half
               | a century ago or earlier. From the point of view of the
               | west, that it would be measuring the productivity of very
               | very small farms vs very small farms where the vast
               | majority of labor is done by hand. Skimming over the
               | article it seems that it concludes that under pre-
               | mechanized conditions, larger farms have less available
               | labor per unit land area. And that labor per unit land
               | area is an important factor in agricultural productivity.
               | This is hardly a surprise.
               | 
               | This is very much not like how farming is done in
               | developed nations or even most developing nations today.
               | And unless you want to force people to live like dirt
               | poor peasants of the past, hopefully won't ever be done
               | again.
        
             | anon84873628 wrote:
             | There is plenty of land under cultivation. We already
             | produce enough calories to feed every person on earth, they
             | just aren't distributed sufficiently.
             | 
             | Currently you have most of the California central valley
             | planted in high margin crops like almonds and pistachios
             | because they maximize farmer profits (despite their
             | unsustainable demands on the water supply). If the goal was
             | to maximize human nutrition the land use would look very
             | different.
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | > How would that work? We don't have enough land as it is.
             | 
             | With capitalism there can never be enough of any natural
             | resource. When there is enough, it will be put to more
             | extravagant and wastefull purposes.
             | 
             | The original purpose of a lawn was to show that you are so
             | rich and have so much land that you can dedicate some of it
             | to just grass.
             | 
             | The purpose of a tough guy wearing a massive golden chain
             | in a bad neighbourhood is to show that noone dares touch
             | him
             | 
             | And the purpose of a yaht is to show off - the yahts dont
             | even cross the ocean, billionaires hire special ships to
             | lift the whole yaht and move it across atlantic.
             | 
             | So whether its yahts or aingle use plastic cups, or bitcoin
             | mining, there is never enough.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | Yes, but the farmers are (obviously) not in favor and have
           | been protesting heavily.
        
             | jorvi wrote:
             | I would replace 'protesting' with 'terrorizing'.
             | 
             | They've been visiting politicians their homes with torches,
             | threatening them and explicitly their kids, blockading
             | highways with burning rubble, blocking highways with
             | _asbestos_ , using their tractors to rip out doors out of
             | government buildings.
             | 
             | What is most aggrieving to me is that the police is pseudo
             | on the side of the farmers. The head of the police said
             | that he 'fully understands the plight of the farmers' and
             | will keep on a policy of de-escalation. Scant few fines
             | too.
             | 
             | Meanwhile a couple of climate protestors that tie
             | themselves to a bridge get their head bashed in and then
             | get fines of EUR300-5000.
             | 
             | Clown world.
        
               | kapsi wrote:
               | If there were that many of organized climate protesters
               | they would be heard as well, it always comes down to
               | numbers and potential for violence.
        
               | ryan93 wrote:
               | I mean placing the blame for climate change on the backs
               | of Dutch farmers was absurd. They should have started
               | with severe controls on importing goods from countries
               | with high levels of pollution
        
               | wartijn_ wrote:
               | Do you have a source of the government "placing the blame
               | for climate change on the backs of Dutch farmers"? The
               | Dutch government wanted[0] to curb emissions, and since
               | (high intensity) farms are huge polluters, some of the
               | measurements affected farmers.But I can't remember them
               | placing the blame on the farmers.
               | 
               | [0] Well, they didn't really want it, but had to
               | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/dutch-
               | official...
        
               | donkeyd wrote:
               | > placing the blame for climate change on the backs of
               | Dutch farmers was absurd
               | 
               | Nobody is doing that, this is blatant misinformation that
               | is being spread by interest groups that profit off Dutch
               | farmers.
               | 
               | Most of the discussion around farmers over here has to do
               | with nitrogen. As the OP mentioned, it is causing
               | acidification of nature areas, which is negatively
               | impacting all sorts of wildlife. It's a mostly local
               | problem, often caused by intensive farming and is mostly
               | unrelated to climate change.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | > Most of the discussion around farmers over here has to
               | do with nitrogen.
               | 
               | Yes, and nitrogen fertilizer yields nitrous oxide which
               | is a greenhouse gas implicated in climate change [1].
               | This is not just "misinformation", this is part of the
               | reason behind the push to ban nitrogen fertilizer.
               | 
               | [1] https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/fertilizer-and-
               | climate-ch...
        
               | donkeyd wrote:
               | > this is part of the reason behind the push to ban
               | nitrogen fertilizer
               | 
               | Sure, that might be true, but it is definitely blatant
               | misinformation that Dutch farmers are being blamed for
               | climate change. It is not part of the discussion that's
               | currently ongoing in The Netherlands and that is
               | purposefully being misrepresented in (mostly American)
               | right-wing media. This needs to be clear, because the
               | violent protests by framers in The Netherlands are being
               | abused by foreign interest groups who frame them as
               | protests against those farmers being blamed for climate
               | change.
               | 
               | This is a real issue, because this is starting to become
               | an actual discussion point for those who are supporting
               | the farmers. They are, for example, asking why farmers
               | are now targeted and airports are not, while farmers
               | cause 88x more nitrogen emissions than flights in the
               | Netherlands. Also, those emissions are less focused on
               | the problem areas.
               | 
               | Misinformation is incredibly harmful in this discussion
               | and therefore it's incredibly important to keep the facts
               | straight. Otherwise all discussions and arguments will
               | mix and there will never actually be anything done.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | I admit find this response confusing.
               | 
               | Given that climate change is the primary reason for
               | restricting nitrogen fertilizer, it's implicit that the
               | farmers are contributing to climate change. Are the
               | people claiming that the farmers are being blamed for
               | climate change saying that the farmers are the _only or
               | primary_ driver for climate change? That would obviously
               | be incorrect, but the former claim is absolutely correct.
               | 
               | Maybe it's not part of the conversation in the
               | Netherlands, but I'm not seeing what's factually wrong
               | about it. Are they actually claiming that climate change
               | _is_ part of the discussion in the Netherlands? If this
               | isn 't part of the conversation in the Netherlands, what
               | exactly are they talking about?
        
               | tremon wrote:
               | _Given that climate change is the primary reason for
               | restricting nitrogen fertilizer_
               | 
               | That's simply not true. The primary reason for
               | restricting nitrogen fertilizer in NL is _habitat change_
               | (i.e. it has profound effects on the habitats of native
               | species), not climate change.
        
               | wartijn_ wrote:
               | > Are the people claiming that the farmers are being
               | blamed for climate change saying that the farmers are the
               | only or primary driver for climate change?
               | 
               | All the comments in this thread are replies to someone
               | who seems to do exactly that by defending farmers
               | "visiting politicians their homes with torches,
               | threatening them and explicitly their kids, blockading
               | highways with burning rubble, blocking highways with
               | asbestos, using their tractors to rip out doors out of
               | government buildings." by saying "I mean placing the
               | blame for climate change on the backs of Dutch farmers
               | was absurd."
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | Ok, but one HN comment is not a misinformation trend
               | throughout right wing media, per the parent comment.
        
               | donkeyd wrote:
               | Here's an example about the misinformation campaign
               | that's happening in the US about the issues in the
               | Netherlands:
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/IUGwT8irPKc
               | 
               | This video is full of blatant misinformation and
               | misrepresentation. Our current discussion is not about
               | climate change, it's about acidification and that's it.
               | No matter how true your comments may be, it has nothing
               | to do with the situation in the Netherlands and it
               | continues the spread of this misinformation. Please stop,
               | it's harmful.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | Good to know, but I don't see why it's harmful. Here in
               | Canada they're also contemplating nitrogen fertilizer
               | bans for reasons of climate change, so it's not like this
               | argument isn't being made.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | They were blamed not for climate change, instead for
               | nitrogen disposition.
               | 
               | This is a uniquely Dutch problem, largely unrelated to
               | CO2. In larger countries, there's clear zoning and
               | distance between protected nature and intensive
               | agriculture. Not in the Netherlands, where these two
               | things are directly bordering each other. Hence, the
               | agriculture very directly destroys its surrounding
               | nature. Not by CO2, by nitrogen.
        
               | j0057 wrote:
               | The highway blockades have lead to accidents too, in one
               | case a fatal one:
               | https://www.rtvutrecht.nl/nieuws/3443753/twee-
               | aanhoudingen-n...
        
           | zip1234 wrote:
           | Probably better to stop propping up the small farms and let
           | the unproductive land be reclaimed by nature. Extensively use
           | pest resistant GMO crops to increase yields on less land and
           | overall lessen the land needed for farming. At the same time,
           | lessening sprawl would be quite helpful. I see plenty of
           | people 'move out to the country' and then spray pesticides
           | over their entire 5 acre lawn.
        
         | alexitosrv wrote:
         | Your last paragraph nailed it! It's a shame. Today HN is on
         | roll of realistic but pessimistic landscape that hits hard.
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | Yup. Visited the US Midwest (Minnesota) recently and driving
         | from the airport city to another smaller city, started going
         | out into farmland.
         | 
         | At first, it seemed like a nice bucolic change. But soon, it
         | took on a far darker aspect - this was a barren monoculture, as
         | far as the eye could see, for dozens of miles. Where to the
         | birds, reptiles, amphibians, mammals, and insects live? The
         | land is not only covered with chemicals to kill or repel any
         | now-unwelcome residents, but there is simply no usable habitat
         | (and a thin row of trees every mile or so doesn't count).
         | 
         | It was a truly dystopian experience, and more so by knowing
         | that this goes on for thousands of square miles. This is not
         | our grandparent's farmland anymore. This is not nature. This is
         | one species becoming a literal plague on the planet. It is not
         | sustainable.
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | Yes, we call them billiard sheets. People for leisure cycle
           | through these areas and thoroughly enjoy all this "greenery".
           | A day spent in "nature".
           | 
           | You're looking at poison and death.
        
           | anon84873628 wrote:
           | At one point during the development of California
           | agriculture, there was an idea that farms should only be 160
           | acres in size, since that was what was manageable and
           | profitable for a smallholder family. I wonder what the land
           | would be like if we had managed to enforce that. There would
           | probably be more crop diversity at least, and habitats in
           | between the farms.
           | 
           | Kind of like anti-trust enforcement for the land itself
        
             | willnonya wrote:
             | The only thing you can know for sure is that it would have
             | driven up prices and reduced supply.
        
               | toss1 wrote:
               | Nonsense
               | 
               | It could have just as easily driven innovation towards
               | efficiently working those kinds of plots, reduced topsoil
               | loss and degradation (reducing fertilizer costs), reduced
               | requirements for pesticides (lower costs again), and
               | improved yields driving down prices.
               | 
               | Especially now with accelerating agri-robotics
               | developments, mid-sized farms like that can take best
               | advantage.
               | 
               | That kind of comment shows that you are using zero
               | knowledge of growing, farming, or that complexities of
               | soil chemistry and soil biology even exist. Not helpful.
               | If you have some such actual knowledge, show some.
               | Sheesh.
        
             | toss1 wrote:
             | Wow, would have been brilliant. (thx for the info)
        
         | jgraham wrote:
         | It's good to see a comment that recognises that this "bug
         | splatter on the windshield" data is mostly just an easily
         | observed hook to connect the measured declines to people's
         | everyday life experiences.
         | 
         | The topic seems to come up here ever few months, and there's
         | always a significant percentage of the discussion devoted to
         | aerodynamic effects, or changes in insect distribution specific
         | to roadside habitats. Those converstations often feel like
         | "middlebrow dismissal": people who think the fact they can come
         | up with a plausible alternate explaination for the data given a
         | few seconds thought means it's likely that the studies are
         | totally flawed and can be ignored.
         | 
         | Meanwhile if you dig in to the actual evidence, the studies
         | based on vehicle data show a small negative correlation between
         | vehicle age and number of impacted flying insects (i.e. older
         | cars have slightly fewer splats, not more). More importantly,
         | the general trends of declining biomass of (especially, but not
         | only) flying insects reproduce over a wide range of
         | methodologies and habitats. For skeptical readers, there are
         | some links to studies in a previous comment I made on a
         | previous thread on this same general topic [1].
         | 
         | Having said that, I think you've missed one of the big factors
         | that's likely to contribute to the decline: the widespread use
         | of insecticides (especially) and herbicides in industrial
         | agriculture. Studies on bees show that even insects exposed to
         | something much lower than the LD50 of certain insecticides
         | experience behavioural changes that dramatically decrease their
         | survival rates. And because "pest" insects typicaly have short
         | lifecycles and rapid reproduction rates, they're often best
         | placed to evolve tolerances for the insecticides, so there's
         | pressure on farmers to use more and more to get the same
         | effect.
         | 
         | For anyone who's interested in an introduction to this topic
         | aimed at the general public (like me!), but written by a
         | Professor of Entomology, I can recommend Slient Earth [2].
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31278206 [2]
         | https://bookshop.org/p/books/silent-earth-averting-the-insec...
        
           | Cryptonic wrote:
           | I think it might be the same disinformation scheme as the
           | climate science "The individual must/can fix it" - No policy
           | must force industries to find other ways to make a profit
           | with agriculture. There are natural ways to deal with insects
           | and unwanted plants.
        
           | TEP_Kim_Il_Sung wrote:
           | You mean The Quiet Earth?
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdHoYtBzdX0
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | I happen to study/photograph insects as an amateur and can
           | casually confirm the collateral damage pesticides have on
           | insect life.
           | 
           | A common manifestation of it is to find lethargic insects.
           | Bodily fully intact and seeming healthy, yet barely able to
           | move. Insects normally skittish that you can simply pick up.
           | I'm not talking about insects at the end of their life cycle
           | or them being very cold. There's something very wrong with
           | these individuals, I believe studies suggest their brains are
           | messed up from the pesticides.
        
           | thereddaikon wrote:
           | insecticides kill insects?
           | 
           | Big if true. Sounds like it working as designed.
        
             | shkkmo wrote:
             | Insecticides are designed to wipe out global populations of
             | insects rather than just controlling pest insects inside a
             | limited area? If you have actual evidence for this, it seem
             | like it would form the basis of significant lawsuits
             | against pesticide companies because we would have evidence
             | of intent to cause significant ecological damage.
        
             | _jal wrote:
             | After low-effort attempts to dismiss risks fail, mockery
             | comes next.
             | 
             | "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you..."
        
             | fleddr wrote:
             | The point of an insecticide is to kill the specific insect
             | being a pest to the crop. Not to kill every single insect
             | altogether.
             | 
             | Maybe people like you should experience what a world
             | without insects would look like. I can save you the time.
             | There will be no world.
        
               | indymike wrote:
               | > The point of an insecticide is to kill the specific
               | insect being a pest to the crop.
               | 
               | Even this can cause a collapse by removing a food source
               | from other predators.
               | 
               | > I can save you the time. There will be no world.
               | 
               | This is true. Insects are food for a huge number of
               | predators, and insect larvae are a really important
               | component of having soil capable of growing plants.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | Not to mention their role in pollination. 80% of plants
               | are pollinated by animals, mostly insects. This includes
               | 35% of food plants.
        
         | dutchbrit wrote:
         | It's also sad to see what people are doing to their gardens
         | over here. Fake grass, no plants/just bricks. Not to mention
         | the municipalities mowing nice patches of grass/plants/flowers
         | where insects thrive.
        
           | Beltalowda wrote:
           | One thing I've noticed after moving back to the Netherlands
           | is how absolutely obsessed people are with keeping things
           | "tidy". In a way, it's nice I guess, at least sometimes, but
           | it comes with some serious costs too. This is not unique to
           | the Netherlands, but we're probably the best (or worst?) at
           | it, except maybe Singapore.
        
             | bamboozled wrote:
             | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/24/let-
             | fall...
             | 
             | Article from today, "let fallen leaves lie"
        
               | collegeburner wrote:
               | wow, that article mentions controversy over the smell of
               | leaf mulch... kinda reflective of how sterile those
               | cities must be for someone who has never visited, so much
               | less surprising they have fewer bugs. Heaven help them if
               | someone ever puts in manure or fish compost :)
        
               | jspash wrote:
               | From near the end of the article: "Sometimes people find
               | it a bit gross when we put the mulch back in plant pots,
               | because it smells a bit woody"
               | 
               | Are people really so detached from nature these days that
               | the smell of wet wood puts them off? I do despair for
               | humankind some days when I read this sort of thing.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | jobs_throwaway wrote:
               | seriously, who are these people who are grossed out by
               | the smell of mulch? Did they grow up in a laboratory?
        
               | Beltalowda wrote:
               | It just so happens I live in Eindoven, so I guess some
               | more explaining is needed. They're working with the
               | leafeblower now. I hate those contraptions so much.
        
               | dutchbrit wrote:
               | As a fellow Eindhovenaar I hate the leaf blowers too!
        
               | noasaservice wrote:
               | I blow them off my wood deck, so they don't rot and
               | damage the wood.
               | 
               | I let them lie on the rest of my 1.6 acres. And the 1
               | acre that's forested, we're working on trying to de-
               | invasive-ize the forest and try to help rehabilitate it.
               | Its just 2 of us, but we're trying.
        
               | galangalalgol wrote:
               | Are there any guides on "deinvasiveizing"? It seems like
               | a complicated topic. Some non native life is considered
               | to be non invasive, having found a homeostasis its new
               | nich (common carp as an example). And some native life is
               | considered invasive by some because it is so well adapted
               | it crowds out all other native life (some bindweeds)
               | 
               | Given the dramatic impacts we have made on a global
               | scale, is trying to preserve de-humanified areas
               | realistic anymore? Or are we supposed to simply try to
               | maximize the diversity of life without regard to what
               | life was in a place before humans arrived?
        
               | noasaservice wrote:
               | We're looking at the super-low-bar of doing things like
               | removing known invasive plants as published in the
               | state's DNR. They maintain a yearly list of nasties to
               | remove.
               | 
               | We also don't use any chemicals to do the killing, as so
               | many of those have terrible side effects. Killing larger
               | invasives involves something as simple as "black
               | contractor bag enveloping and tied at base". It captures
               | all the seeds, kills the plant, and provides easy
               | removal.
               | 
               | We also see that a lot of "lawn grasses" are also pretty
               | invasive especially to forests. So, we also try to keep
               | the lawn encroachment from happening..... as much. Ive
               | done the high tech solution of "lay a slab of plywood on
               | the grasses at the edge of the forest"!
               | 
               | We're also designing our garden with local plants in
               | mind, including rarer plants for our area. If/when those
               | flower and seed, we're seeing natives with natives. And
               | the non-natives we bring in are checked for invasiveness.
               | 
               | Basically, it's being low-key stewards to the land.
        
               | galangalalgol wrote:
               | Thanks! One well intentioned mistake we made at a
               | previous residence was to plant some flowers for
               | pollinators that were not native. They weren't invasive,
               | but they were prolific. The issue was that they bloomed
               | late enough that the butterflies didn't move on and
               | froze.
        
           | stinos wrote:
           | _Not to mention the municipalities mowing nice patches of
           | grass /plants/flowers where insects thrive._
           | 
           | That lacks an important nuance: in most circumstances
           | (regarding soil type/nitrogen deposition), not mowing at all
           | would lead to those patches being overgrown by fast growers
           | leading to less plant diversity. Can happen in as little as a
           | year or 2. So the mowing itself is not the problem, it's the
           | amount, how and when.
        
             | kspacewalk2 wrote:
             | Mowing itself is the problem. Fast growers are just the
             | first step in a recovery process that takes place when a
             | previously stunted ecosystem is allowed to heal. Other
             | types of plants follow in subsequent years, leading to a
             | much more healthy ecosystem than when you mow it all down
             | to hell.
        
               | stinos wrote:
               | _Mowing itself is the problem_
               | 
               | You really cannot talk about this in statements like they
               | apply everywhere. Here's an example: around where I live,
               | the number 1 activity by nature preservation groups when
               | it comes to restoring grasslands of all kinds, is mowing.
               | For a couple of reasons, but the main one being that
               | nitrogen deposition fertilizes the soil too much, so it
               | gets countered by removing biomass via mowing. Not doing
               | that results is fast growers. Not because the'yre
               | indicating a recovery process, just because they outgrow
               | what was there originally. Which is the opposite of
               | recovery.
               | 
               |  _leading to a much more healthy ecosystem than when you
               | mow it all down to hell._
               | 
               | When I say "it's the amount, how and when" that
               | implicates 'not mowing it all down to hell' is _not_ the
               | right way :)
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | As the other reply said, each area is unique and so there
               | is no general rule that applies to every location on
               | earth.
               | 
               | Where I live the native prairie was naturally mowed by
               | the bison roaming around, and so not mowing leads to a
               | number of problems as the plants around here depend on
               | that regular mowing. Various lightening strikes and the
               | like ("Indians") caused regular fires as well, which took
               | care of overgrowth. Mowing simulates that without the
               | fire. (this is both good and bad - it makes for cleaner
               | air, but those fires also put charcoal into the ground
               | and so made the prairie net carbon negative over the long
               | term which is something we desperately need)
        
           | DonaldFisk wrote:
           | It would be nice if people realized that they can have a low-
           | maintenance, inexpensive, and insect-friendly garden full of
           | pretty wild flowers, by planting a perennial meadow. This
           | needs to be cut once a year.
           | 
           | In the UK, you can buy perennial meadow seed mixes from
           | https://www.scotiaseeds.co.uk , https://wildseed.co.uk ,
           | https://www.wildflower.co.uk, and several other companies.
           | 
           | Elsewhere, there should be equivalents.
        
             | addingadimensio wrote:
             | I just love picking ticks off my children
        
               | stinos wrote:
               | I can stroll through acres of local meadows and not find
               | any ticks. Once I dare come close to bushes or go off
               | tracks in the woods though, it's a disaster. I.e. I don't
               | know why, but in any case the 'grass is riddled with
               | ticks' seems highly location-dependent.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | Critter fences are cheap and effective at preventing this
               | without requiring you to create a sterile landscape or
               | monoculture.
        
               | __alexs wrote:
               | Unless you have wild mammals visiting your garden
               | regularly it's quite unlikely there will be a single tick
               | in it.
        
             | stinos wrote:
             | _by planting a perennial meadow_
             | 
             | While this works, an alternative if you have a lawn already
             | is to just stop cutting it every x weeks but mow once or
             | twice a year. Mow paths where needed. More often than not
             | there are already seeds/plants in the soil which just never
             | got the chance to grow. And if not, depending on where you
             | live, fauna and wind will transport seeds to your garden.
             | The end result (mind you, takes years) will usually be
             | similar: of the seed mixes bought, a bunch won't grow,
             | others might but won't thrive. Whereas starting from
             | 'scratch' this also happens. And what's left are those
             | which happen to thrive best on the local soil type and
             | circumstances, which usually is what works best for the
             | local ecosystem.
        
               | nightski wrote:
               | Yes that will bring back the insects, in droves. It's a
               | nightmare and you won't enjoy being in your yard at all.
        
               | Amezarak wrote:
               | If I didn't cut my yard for a year I wouldn't need a
               | mower, I'd need a large brush-clearing tractor. It's
               | already almost impossible to cut with a mower after four
               | to five weeks.
        
           | thanatos519 wrote:
           | It's crazy! On one side, I have a neighbour with all slate
           | and concrete backyard, and a barrier at the top of the fence
           | (to keep the fancy cats in 'o_O ) covered with plastic vines.
           | I think they have one actual living tree and maybe a
           | flowerpot.
           | 
           | Fortunately, on the other side ... I have the head of the
           | groene commissie (neighbourhood gardening enthusiastc) and a
           | beautiful tended garden. Mine is the most natural: a barely-
           | tended jungle which gets trimmed and brushed once a year. We
           | have hedgehogs!
           | 
           | We installed ~200m^2 of green roofs in the neighbourhood and
           | there are bug hotels all over the place so we are doing
           | relatively well. Quite a few different varieties of bees.
           | 
           | All this green absorbs a lot of heat, and manages rainwater
           | which is important at 0 above sea level and 2m below the
           | nearby canal.
        
             | djur wrote:
             | In far too many parts of the US, what you're doing with
             | your yard would be considered "neglect" and might result in
             | harassment from your neighbors or even fines.
        
         | geysersam wrote:
         | I'm surprised you didn't mention pesticide usage as one of the
         | reasons. Or is that not an important factor?
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | It most definitely is. But even without pesticides, insects
           | cannot survive without plant diversity. At least most groups
           | can't.
        
         | lettergram wrote:
         | While I don't disagree with those two points I don't know if
         | they're the primary cause.
         | 
         | I also think it's important to put it into context.
         | 
         | 1. These insects weren't really robust to begin with. Take the
         | monarch butterfly in the North America. They actually needed
         | primarily milkweed to survive. A single point of failure
         | (milkweed) can cause the population to collapse. When we put up
         | houses and converted land to farms, you're correct we killed
         | many of the native species, but those species were HIGHLY tuned
         | to a particular niche. In 100-200 years it's likely the insects
         | that survived will re-occupy new niches.
         | 
         | 2. Insects _typically_ need a much smaller range to survive, so
         | hikes in the same woods as when you were a kid doesn't add up.
         | Unless there was another massive environmental issue - such as
         | pesticides or chemicals like DDT which have a secondary impact.
         | Personally, that bird egg analogy sounds exactly like what the
         | US saw with DDT and the collapse of the eagle population.
         | 
         | 3. In the 1950s in the Midwest there had already been farmland
         | all over for 50+ years. Same with Ireland (for hundreds). The
         | insect populations have only noticeably declined in the last
         | few decades. Unfortunately, we don't have enough historical
         | data to confirm what it is exactly. Even in the 1970s you'd
         | have solid layers of bugs on windshields driving between
         | cornfields. Now, nothing.
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_insect_population...
         | 
         | To me, this indicates a chemical or set there of, as the most
         | likely culprits.
         | 
         | EDIT: DET -> DDT
        
           | kapsi wrote:
           | What's gonna happen in 100 years? Are the insects waiting for
           | something?
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | I strongly object to the framing where a species is
           | considered logical to go extinct for it was not "robust"
           | enough.
           | 
           | The words "specialist" and "niche" are incredibly misplaced
           | as it comes to insects. Consider butterflies, many depending
           | on specific host plants. The host plant is in decline hence
           | the butterfly disappears.
           | 
           | Weak species. Not "robust". The point that is being missed
           | here is that the host plant is supposed to be widely
           | available in any half-decent ecosystem. It isn't rare, would
           | normally be widespread, and it has very low needs. Just a
           | tiny bit of space and healthy soil.
           | 
           | We're not wiping out specialists, we're wiping out the
           | underlying habitat and ecosystem altogether.
        
           | Beltalowda wrote:
           | > In the 1950s in the Midwest there had already been farmland
           | all over for 50+ years. Same with Ireland (for hundreds). The
           | insect populations have only noticeably declined in the last
           | few decades. Unfortunately, we don't have enough historical
           | data to confirm what it is exactly. Even in the 1970s you'd
           | have solid layers of bugs on windshields driving between
           | cornfields. Now, nothing.
           | 
           | This assumes that farming methods have remained identical
           | since the 1950s or 70s, but they haven't. I don't know if the
           | parent poster is correct, but I don't think is a good
           | argument unless you also account for changes in agricultural
           | practices in the last 50+ years.
        
           | bmitc wrote:
           | That is a very human-centric viewpoint and a very strange one
           | at that. It's almost egocentric.
           | 
           | Were big cats such as mountain lions and bobcats not robust
           | enough in America? Because they've been eradicated due to
           | habitat loss.
           | 
           | Is it really a surprise that animals that have evolved over
           | millions of years to fit within the balance of nature are
           | having difficulty adapting in just decades to humanity's
           | technology destruction of that balance? The fact that some
           | are able to make it through that imbalance is not a
           | justification.
           | 
           | It's weird that you basically seem to blame evolution. And
           | it's not just about specific populations. It's all about
           | their interactions and relationships. We do not fully
           | understand how all these things tie together as a system. So
           | much of it is disappearing, we really have no idea what could
           | happen to our ecosystems. For the most part, it cannot be
           | good.
           | 
           | I am in general seriously concerned about soil and insect
           | health. We take leaves and grass and native plants off of
           | land and then instead needlessly dump water and fertilizer in
           | their place because what's left is not self-sustaining. It's
           | literally the most wasteful process you can think of for
           | managing land, and yet we do it in full force.
           | 
           | I planted native plants and let things grow up in my yard
           | this year, and it's amazing how popular the areas get with
           | insects. This is just one year. Next year, I am hoping for
           | much more, especially now that I know what I'm doing for the
           | most part.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | An additional problem for monarch butterflies is a pair of
           | introduced species, both swallow-worts. These are in the
           | milkweed family, and they induce the butterflies to lay eggs
           | on them, but the caterpillars die after only a few days.
           | 
           | I wonder how common this sort of thing is. Insects evolve to
           | feed on certain plants, and not feed on others, but invasives
           | could screw that up.
        
           | vidanay wrote:
           | DDT not DET
        
           | data_maan wrote:
           | > In 100-200 years it's likely the insects that survived will
           | re-occupy new niches.
           | 
           | Do you have any data to back this up?
           | 
           | Also, the problem is that not many insects ARE going to
           | survive.
           | 
           | > The insect populations have only noticeably declined in the
           | last few decades.
           | 
           | This is probably outright misleading, since you don't have
           | the data prior to those decades. The common mistake is that
           | people use their own lifespan as a measure for things.
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | Everybody talks about the gender pay gap and ethnic diversity
           | these days, but biodiversity is not on the radar :(
        
             | lettergram wrote:
             | Regarding the niche comment. Look at any invasive species.
             | Once it arrives within 10-20 years it can dominate the
             | region it's in. Evolution occurs the same way; once
             | something mutates in a way with competitive advantage it
             | expands. With insects this can happen rapidly (because they
             | lay so many eggs). I don't have it handy now, but we have
             | examples of this in grasshoppers.
             | 
             | Pesticide resistant insects are another example. Now, this
             | assumes we don't keep altering pesticides, but we do. If we
             | keep trying to reduce insect populations we can, so I don't
             | think it'll happen unless we allow it to happen.
             | 
             | As for the other comment, my point is really we have
             | records showing massive amount of insects all throughout
             | history until the introduction of pesticides. Even during
             | the Great Depression in the US we had massive swarms of
             | insects. Once pesticides were introduced at scale we
             | noticed a decline in recorded swarms until now we don't
             | even see them on windshields.
        
         | donkeyd wrote:
         | Wow, it's refreshing to see a Dutch person write down the
         | impact of nitrogen as facts. Around me, its seems like slowly
         | everyone is starting to doubt/deny the impact of nitrogen and
         | whether it's something we need to care about. I'm starting to
         | feel less at home in this country by the day because of it (and
         | all the upside down flags consequently).
        
           | leokennis wrote:
           | The farmers' protests are insane. They either flat out deny
           | science, or frame biodiversity as some "left wing bleeding
           | heart liberal" hobby.
           | 
           | Despite that they get offered millions to stop their farming
           | activities.
           | 
           | Despite that they dump asbestos on highways and threaten
           | politicians by visiting their homes.
           | 
           | And despite that our politicians cheer them on.
           | 
           | It really is the worst of times.
        
             | splitstud wrote:
        
             | kdbeall_ wrote:
             | Oh, so the Dutch government should expropriate their land?
        
               | leokennis wrote:
               | They could define and enforce environmental laws that
               | would make the current way of farming that is destroying
               | nature impossible. The farmers would need to adapt or go
               | bankrupt.
               | 
               | Instead they get offered millions. And in response they
               | terrorize our society.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | Yes, draconian as that seems, they should.
        
               | donkeyd wrote:
               | The government will be paying a shit load of money for
               | it, so yes, I don't see any issues.
               | 
               | Or the government can just stop giving them subsidies and
               | they'll just seize existing. I think buying them out is a
               | neater solution.
        
           | fleddr wrote:
           | It's a worldwide thing. An urbanized population does not care
           | about nature. At all. Modern life is almost fully abstracted
           | away from it, and it seems fine to destroy it for as long as
           | our delicate lifestyle remains intact.
           | 
           | Every once in a while, we watch a documentary like Planet
           | Earth. It inspires even the most cynical stoic. And we feel
           | terrible about our negative role.
           | 
           | But the next day we go on as usual. And as soon as a tiny
           | thing is asked of us to better the course, we resist like a
           | maniac.
        
             | donkeyd wrote:
             | > as soon as a tiny thing is asked of us to better the
             | course
             | 
             | Well, I also see a lot of people who do the tiny thing but
             | not the big thing. Plenty of people around me are reducing
             | their meat intake (and are vocal about it), because climate
             | change, but still fly on airplanes, some multiple times a
             | year. It's so incredibly frustrating that many people are
             | just green washing their lives, but are oblivious to the
             | fact they're not really doing much at all.
             | 
             | I do have massive respect for the people I do know that
             | have quit eating meat and are now doing all their travels
             | by train.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | Respectfully, I think your take on this does not work.
               | 
               | If before you have a frequent flyer that regularly eats
               | meat, and next they stop eating meat, that is to be
               | celebrated. It's still massive progress. Further, their
               | footprint from flying may improve over time as airlines
               | are investing in sustainability.
               | 
               | From flying 3 times a year to 2 times a year is big
               | progress. From eating lots of meat to somewhat less, is
               | progress.
               | 
               | By implying footprint perfection, it all becomes very
               | reductive and people will reject it. With that mindset,
               | you'll be able to find "dirt" on anyone. I mean, how very
               | polluting must David Attenborough be?
               | 
               | As for bettering the course regarding insects, I wasn't
               | even suggesting CO2 reduction. Just introducing some
               | small spaces where wildflowers can grow, and they will
               | come. It takes almost nothing.
        
               | donkeyd wrote:
               | > From flying 3 times a year to 2 times a year is big
               | progress.
               | 
               | These people are going from 0-1 time a year to 2-3 times
               | a year, because they're starting to earn more and can
               | therefore take more trips. They are ignorant to the fact
               | that's more wasteful than eating meat. This is typical
               | personal green-washing, which is the part that annoys me.
               | 
               | I understand that perfect is the enemy of good and I'm
               | not implying that everyone should be perfect.
        
             | munificent wrote:
             | _> An urbanized population does not care about nature. At
             | all._
             | 
             | My experience has been the exact opposite. Growing up in
             | rural areas, most people seemed to treat nature as an
             | endless resource to be exploited for personal enrichment.
             | Any discussion of ecological regulation was met with harsh
             | rebuke about "jobs" and "freedom" (i.e. the freedom to
             | extract value by exploiting nature).
             | 
             | As I moved to more urban areas, people were more and more
             | ecologically focused on the long-term impacts of natural
             | exploitation. Today I live in a dense metro area (Seattle)
             | where I've never been around a greater concentration of
             | nature-focused people.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | You're quite right. And it's even worse than that. I had
               | this part in my earlier comment but deleted it as I did
               | not want to distract from my main message by causing a
               | political stir.
               | 
               | The controversial statement being that the issue extends
               | into (many) indigenous communities. We have this pristine
               | idea of them, as original peoples living in harmony with
               | nature.
               | 
               | That's not the reality on the ground. I've traveled to a
               | lot of remote areas where we frequently encountered
               | illegal activity by locals and even park rangers.
               | Poaching...anything and everything, including rare
               | flowers. Logging. Gold mining. Hunting critically extinct
               | species even when alternatives (for food) are widely
               | available.
               | 
               | You can't explain it by poverty alone, there's a general
               | sense of total carelessness. A very clear example of that
               | is people dumping their trash in the river, in forests,
               | everywhere. Many good faith reforestation attempts soon
               | are gamed and corrupted.
               | 
               | So yes, pretty hopeless.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | > Around me, its seems like slowly everyone is starting to
           | doubt/deny the impact of nitrogen and whether it's something
           | we need to care about.
           | 
           | I'm not sure why that's surprising. Our food supply depends
           | on using nitrogen at the moment. You can't just ban it cold-
           | turkey without transitioning to an alternative that doesn't
           | threaten the food supply. Particularly with inflation issues,
           | further destabilizing the food supply is insane at this time.
           | The whole climate change agenda will be in jeopardy if this
           | isn't handled well.
        
             | ls15 wrote:
             | > Our food supply depends on using nitrogen at the moment.
             | 
             | And it always will, since all plants require nitrogen for
             | growing.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | Sure, but there might be better formulations that don't
               | release as much nitrous oxide, which is the greenhouse
               | gas of concern.
        
       | mensetmanusman wrote:
       | Although indoor vertical farming is going to be super expensive,
       | it does have the possibility of huge benefits such as reducing
       | contamination to the environment.
        
         | BuyMyBitcoins wrote:
         | I like the idea of using genetic engineering to knock out
         | certain species of pest, limited to the ones specialized to eat
         | domesticated crops. You wouldn't need to spray a cornfield if
         | the corn moth was no longer around.
         | 
         | And, we could always keep a pristine population of the peat
         | locked away in some vault if it turns out making them extinct
         | in the wild was a bad idea.
        
       | lb417 wrote:
       | Monsanto.
        
       | theandrewbailey wrote:
       | I was thinking about this lack of bugs phenomenon when driving to
       | my mom's house a few times over the past 3 or so months. It
       | hasn't been the case for me this year. My car is covered with
       | dead bugs, more than there used to be ~10 years ago. While I was
       | there, I walked around at night (in a small midwestern town), and
       | was constantly assaulted by bugs. Is pesticide use down with
       | fertilizer use?
        
         | christophilus wrote:
         | I have a similar anecdote. I had to make a 5 hour drive this
         | weekend up to Raleigh, NC, and for the first time in years, my
         | windshield was dotted with bugs.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jshprentz wrote:
       | Mark Hostetler's analysis of North American windshield splatters
       | in 1997 is documented in his book, "That Gunk on Your Car: A
       | Unique Guide to Insects of North America." He reports on two
       | dozen types of insects, with photos of them splattered and
       | intact. His work won the 1997 Ig Nobel Prize for entomology [1].
       | 
       | No time to read a whole book? Hostetler's son, Bryce, released a
       | free iPhone/iPad app in 2018 [2].
       | 
       | [1] https://improbable.com/ig/winners/#ig1997
       | 
       | [2] https://apps.apple.com/us/app/that-gunk-on-your-
       | car/id135275...
        
       | callesgg wrote:
       | Evolution.
       | 
       | Insects that spend time on the open road have less chance of
       | survival and reproduction than those that stay in their natural
       | habitat.
        
       | jaimex2 wrote:
       | There is something to the aerodynamics of cars today, though
       | unlikely the main driver.
       | 
       | When I've towed a caravan it picks up a lot of bugs while the
       | windscreen is relatively clean the entire trip. I drive a 7 year
       | old vehicle.
        
       | PM_me_your_math wrote:
       | Why? Because author lives in Washington DC. Move out of the city
       | and you will have plenty of insect friends that are not
       | cockroaches and drain flies.
        
       | fallingfrog wrote:
       | Does anyone else remember the puddles in the road being full of
       | worms after a good rainfall? I hardly see any of those anymore
       | either.
        
         | eden_hazard wrote:
         | I remember that. I used to walk to school and would jump be
         | looking down the entire time to avoid stepping on worms. Now I
         | hardly see them.
        
           | fallingfrog wrote:
           | This is concerning because if it's affecting worms too, then
           | it's not just airborne bugs landing on crops with
           | insecticide. It means it's already soaked into the soil.
        
       | jrd79 wrote:
       | Regarding all the anecdotes, I would have said the same thing 8
       | years ago when I moved to my current house in suburban
       | Minneapolis. Then we had some landscaping done and added a bunch
       | of planting beds to the otherwise boring grass-only yard. And my
       | kids threw some milkweed seeds on a slope that is too steep to
       | mow. Now we've got tons of bumblebees, honey bees, monarch
       | butterflies, and other insects. I think the range of most insects
       | is quite small, so maybe people who miss the bugs just need to
       | plant a bit more in their yards :).
       | 
       | Second point: the windshield splats proxy is too confounded to be
       | useful. Use actual measurements or reasonable people will
       | discount the claims (as I have done).
        
       | forgotmypw17 wrote:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18222888
        
       | alangibson wrote:
       | I recently went back to my hometown in the USA after a couple of
       | decades away. I was struck by how there we're almost none of the
       | fireflies, grasshoppers and assorted other bugs I'd chased as a
       | kid. I chalked it up to being a nostalgic old man, but I've never
       | shaken that feeling that something is definitely not right.
        
         | INTPenis wrote:
         | Sad and frightening to hear. Funny though but here in southern
         | Sweden and Denmark I've had the opposite experience.
         | 
         | Sometime around 2018 I started noticing a lot of fireflies, in
         | a park in the middle of a major city. Which was not normal to
         | me. Since then I've noticed them almost every summer.
         | 
         | And on vacation in Denmark it's the same thing, the air is
         | alive with life. It has its downsides too because there are
         | more ticks than ever too.
         | 
         | A lot of cities here have started leaving grassy areas uncut,
         | they just cut a path through it for people to walk on. Also
         | Copenhagen has started building "walls" of twigs, encased in a
         | wire mesh. These walls act as safe havens for all sorts of
         | insects and small creatures.
        
           | Zigurd wrote:
           | I grew up in the suburbs of Chicago. On hot summer evenings
           | the fireflies were spectacular. The cooler summers of New
           | England meant many fewer fireflies. But, in the past couple
           | of years I have noticed more of them where I now live.
        
         | Nasrudith wrote:
         | Anecdotal, but I was pleased to see fireflies returning after
         | not seeing them post puberty. Not denying general trends at all
         | but it makes me wonder what is the cause of counter examples.
         | Maybe more neighbors not overgrooming their lawns or the local
         | park's native species garden?
        
           | mod wrote:
           | In the case of fireflies, they lay eggs in leaf litter. So
           | you need some unkempt properties or wild land.
        
         | devmor wrote:
         | I saw Fireflies for the first time two years ago after moving
         | to the Southeast US.
         | 
         | I saw very few last year. I saw zero this year. I'm glad I got
         | to experience them before they were all gone, I guess.
        
           | sarchertech wrote:
           | Fireflies (we call them lightning bugs in the south)
           | fluctuate yearly. Some years there are very few of them. It's
           | always been like that from talking to relatives.
        
           | jay_kyburz wrote:
           | My kids are 10 and 11 and the saw their first grasshopper
           | last summer. They were everywhere when I was a kid. Christmas
           | beetles are a rare find these days. I haven't seen a Bogon
           | moth in years.
        
         | luxuryballs wrote:
         | 5G and emf seems reasonable but will they turn it off for a few
         | years and find out? nope
        
         | nemo44x wrote:
         | Could be because you aren't there in the grass and fields
         | actively looking for them. If you garden and spend time in it,
         | it's amazing what you find.
        
           | alangibson wrote:
           | I noticed it in my grandmother's backyard, so that variable
           | was controlled. Then I noticed it pretty much in all my old
           | haunts. Sample size N = 1, etc.
        
       | hiidrew wrote:
       | This is terrible and makes me think of the unknown consequences
       | that may occur from the death of an insect species, who knows.
       | 
       | Side note: recently moved to the northeast and it has been
       | fascinating seeing the city collectively come together to kill an
       | invasive bug species. You will witness an adult randomly stomping
       | on the corner of the street. I wish we had the same energy when
       | it came to protecting existing bugs.
        
         | quantumfissure wrote:
         | Let me guess, the Spotted Lanternfly? They are all over here
         | (SE PA).
         | 
         | It was entertaining watching the old man (easily 85+) from my
         | neighborhood walking around with a broom brushing them off
         | trees and smashing them with his walker.
        
       | once_inc wrote:
       | > So in our little thought experiment, (...), our bugs-per-
       | windshield metric would have been cut by two-thirds even if the
       | number of bugs had remained constant. And it hasn't! It's fallen
       | precipitously.
       | 
       | This could also be a function of bugs flying less over busy
       | roads, and decreasing in volume at the places where most cars
       | drive. If so, that would explain the precipitous fall in splats.
       | I do not think that this is very far-fetched, since most animals
       | instinctively begin to shun areas when predators are introduced.
        
       | Cthulhu_ wrote:
       | Previous related post (3 years ago):
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18909650
        
       | iancmceachern wrote:
       | Aerodynamics, cars are far more aerodynamic now days.
        
         | RamblingCTO wrote:
         | I can attest that. I drive a Land Rover Defender which, you
         | know, has the aerodynamics of a wall. It's full of bugs after
         | driving on the highway for more than 30 minutes.
        
           | Pephers wrote:
           | Sadly, also in Denmark as the article mentions, I've only had
           | to clean my windshield once this summer (by clean I mean
           | scrubbing, I do use the windshield washer more often). 1995
           | Defender.
           | 
           | I only have to look outside at my neighbors winter wheat
           | field to find one of the reasons. It's been sprayed 3 times
           | already this fall after sowing.
        
             | RamblingCTO wrote:
             | Yeah, it's a pitty. But you do have to scrub it more than a
             | normal care. I gave up having a clean wind shield.
        
           | iancmceachern wrote:
           | I love defenders, I had a series 1 discovery that I simply
           | loved, I was even able to successfully complete Hella Revenge
           | in Moab with it 100% stock
        
             | RamblingCTO wrote:
             | Are you from the US? Never thought anyone would drive them
             | over there because they tend to need repairs quite often
             | and not every shop wants to work on them. And also the
             | thing with the spare parts.
             | 
             | I got a TD5 though, so a bit more modern ;)
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Yeah. I bought mine because it was half the price of a
               | similar year 4runner or similar. I ended up getting rid
               | of it for the reasons you state, but had a blast with it
               | while I had it.
        
               | RamblingCTO wrote:
               | haha, had to be the reason. I would also love a 4Runner,
               | love the look. But the mileage and the eletronics, apart
               | from the fact that they aren't sold in Germany make it
               | nearly impossible.
        
         | boffinism wrote:
         | How do you feel about the rebuttal to this claim in the
         | article? Particularly the decline in licence plate splats?
        
           | iancmceachern wrote:
           | It seems like they debunked my theory in the article,
           | apologies
        
             | entropicgravity wrote:
             | Hey hypotheses are meant to be disapproved, it's an
             | important part of the process.
        
         | anonymous_sorry wrote:
         | The article discusses this at length, concluding that it is not
         | a major factor.
        
         | hourago wrote:
         | > Many smart people we spoke with, including entomologists and
         | wheat farmers, speculated that maybe the cars have changed, not
         | the bugs. As vehicles become more aerodynamic, the thinking
         | goes, their increasingly efficient airflow whisks the bugs away
         | from the windshield instead of creating head-on splatters.
         | 
         | > But when we called experts in the arcane art of computational
         | fluid dynamics, they sounded skeptical. Yes, today's sleek
         | sedans can have half the drag of the land boats that ruled the
         | road just a generation or two ago. But that improved airflow
         | won't do much for a bug.
         | 
         | > For starters, many aero improvements happen on the rear of
         | the car rather than the bug-hitting front. Consider the
         | optimally aerodynamic teardrop shape, with its blunt, round
         | front and long, sleek tail. But more importantly, it's just
         | surprisingly difficult to use air to push a bug out of the way
         | of an onrushing Buick.
         | 
         | > If it were possible to design a bug- and debris-proof car,
         | then Kevin Golsch probably would have done it by now. An auto-
         | industry veteran, Golsch has spent decades around wind tunnels,
         | both real and simulated, and is now vice president for
         | strategic fluid design and simulation at Altair, a global tech
         | company that makes simulation and AI software. Altair's
         | customers include massive automakers that would be thrilled if
         | airflow could protect both windshields and the delicate sensors
         | on self-driving cars.
         | 
         | > "From an aerodynamic standpoint, I've done a lot of studies
         | on contamination of sensors, especially for autonomous
         | vehicles," Golsch said. "And I think most everybody's given up
         | on trying to influence what happens at the vehicle level for
         | dust and particles and rain."
         | 
         | > Consider raindrops. They're about the size and weight of a
         | larger insect, but nobody thinks fewer raindrops hit our
         | windshields these days. Any forces that cleared our windshield
         | of bugs would presumably do the same for rain and road debris,
         | Golsch said.
         | 
         | > To be sure, one element of modern auto design could be
         | reducing bug spatter. Windshields today often have a lower
         | slope than the more-vertical front windows of yesteryear, and
         | while the broader shift to SUVs and trucks with bigger, steeper
         | windshields will negate some of that, it might reduce splats
         | for people who are driving similar vehicles.
         | 
         | > "If the windshield was laid back slightly more than another
         | windshield, that bug may have a chance of just skipping off and
         | going up over the windshield rather than hitting the
         | windshield," Golsch said. "It might be a glancing blow at the
         | last second rather than a splat."
         | 
         | > But we also saw 60 percent declines in insects between 2004
         | and 2021 in a British study from the Kent Wildlife Trust, which
         | built on a Royal Society for the Protection of Birds effort in
         | which thousands of people used "splatometers" to measure bug
         | splatters on license plates, which aren't much affected by
         | aerodynamic advances elsewhere.
        
       | bookofjoe wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/pIgFD
        
       | scottmckenzie wrote:
       | Have a drive in New Zealand. Plenty of bugs. Butterfly season can
       | be harsh.
        
       | andrew_ wrote:
       | I can attest that there has been zero slowdown in the prehistoric
       | bug death on my windshield in Florida after any stretch of time
       | on I-75.
       | 
       | If you've never lived through the lovebug season here, consider
       | yourself lucky
        
       | JustSomeNobody wrote:
       | Not just windshields, but the fronts of cars also. I doubt very
       | much that aerodynamics accounts for much of it.
        
       | mustafabisic1 wrote:
       | I noticed that I didn't use "insect removal" mode on automatic
       | car washes in like two years now. Even after long trips.
       | 
       | Gotta say it's a bit scary. Together with air temperature in
       | Bosnia being 27 degrees celsius, definitely rings some bad
       | alarms.
       | 
       | Totally a gut feeling, but those can be correct often.
        
       | titzer wrote:
       | It's partly due to mowing alongside highways and medians. That is
       | primarily motivated by keeping the number of small animals down,
       | reducing fire risk, and other reasons, but fewer tall grasses
       | means drastically fewer bugs. Also, pesticides and general global
       | insect decline. This is _not_ primarily due to aerodynamics.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | It's smart to keep it maintained for safety reasons, but that
         | doesn't explain the full story - there's bound to be plenty of
         | unkempt grassland and whatnot further away from the road where
         | insect populations SHOULD be thriving.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | > where insect populations SHOULD be thriving.
           | 
           | Oh, I know. It's not looking good for bugs globally because
           | of a lot of reasons.
        
         | stinos wrote:
         | _It 's partly due to mowing alongside highways and medians. ...
         | fewer tall grasses means drastically fewer bugs_
         | 
         | This is way too general: in some countries and alongside
         | specific highways, the state of grasslands is actually really
         | good. Like: good enough to grow rare orchids and having >10 or
         | >20 plant species/square meter. Because of correct mowing
         | regimes for that vegetation type.
         | 
         | It also lacks nuance because as explained in another comment
         | already: not mowing at all can make things worse. Which brings
         | us to the tall grasses: meadows featuring a lot of tall grasses
         | but hardly any other flowering plants have can have much less
         | insects that meadows with a coverage of only like 20% grasses
         | where the rest is taken by a diversity of flowering plants.
        
       | Gordonjcp wrote:
       | Anecdotally, my 25-year-old Range Rover, and the 10-year-old
       | Landrover Defender (which hasn't changed its basic shape since
       | the 1950s) we have at work pick up just as many bugs as cars did
       | in the 1970s.
       | 
       | The modern, sleek, aerodynamic cars we have don't pick up any
       | bugs at all.
        
       | snwt wrote:
       | Neonicotinoids (pesticide coated seeds) started becoming popular
       | around the same time that bees started mass dying (early 2000s).
       | 
       | AFAIK, the effect of these pesticides on humans is limited, but
       | it's been absolutely devastating for insects.
       | 
       | There is not much profit to be made on insects (aside from bees),
       | so research and bills are getting lobbied into limbo by the big
       | four neonicotinoid companies and agriculture organizations.
        
         | snwt wrote:
         | Here's a documentary the subject: "Bayer and the Bees"
         | https://youtu.be/UaNSByf4sLA
        
       | rabuse wrote:
       | My motorcycle helmet visor says otherwise. Rarely don't ever have
       | them smeared all over, even on a shorter ride.
        
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