[HN Gopher] Leaving the Cloud
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Leaving the Cloud
        
       Author : marban
       Score  : 122 points
       Date   : 2022-10-22 18:59 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.rework.fm)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.rework.fm)
        
       | billythemaniam wrote:
       | I think the cloud can reduce the operations team even at their
       | scale if serverless is used on GCP. Many of the serverless
       | offerings on GCP just get it right. I have never had to think
       | about machine sizes, clusters, etc when using BigQuery. My team
       | and I focus on the SQL. Cloud Run gives you a web or API server
       | without having to really think about machines other than number
       | of cores and memory size. I am currently designing a data
       | pipeline architecture that is 100% serverless to move away from
       | Airflow/Composer. Why? Because my team and I can stay focused on
       | the code and logic of moving data around instead of the
       | operations of managing a managed product.
       | 
       | Would this work on AWS or Azure? Theoretically yes, but I
       | personally think their serverless offerings are hard to use and
       | don't make things easier.
        
         | flyinglizard wrote:
         | Azure Functions is as easy to use as writing an "Hello World"
         | console application. I have a few services running like
         | clockwork for a few years now, very happy with this service
         | overall. The one thing that complicates matters is Microsoft's
         | eagerness to deprecate libraries, frameworks and best practices
         | every now and then.
        
       | cs702 wrote:
       | In the _early_ days of cloud providers, their services _were_
       | both easy-to-use and cost-effective for many growing companies.
       | 
       | Now, cloud providers offer a _giant hairball_ of specialized
       | services, built on top of other specialized services, built on
       | top of yet other specialized services... such that no single
       | person can comprehend all of them, let alone manage them cost-
       | effectively. Moreover, as all these intertwined services become
       | deeply entrenched in IT infrastructure, migrating away from them
       | becomes incredibly disruptive.
       | 
       | The financial incentives of cloud providers are not aligned with
       | those of customers. The more a customer is sucked and trapped
       | inside those giant hairballs, the better for the cloud providers.
       | 
       | To paraphrase the Dark Knight, cloud providers may have been the
       | heroes at first, but they have lived long enough to become the
       | villains.
        
         | brap wrote:
         | This is why I like DigitalOcean. They have like 4 products,
         | spend 5 minutes on their site and you know exactly which ones
         | you need.
        
       | georgebarnett wrote:
       | One under discussed issue I've noticed is how the size of The
       | compute sold to the end user does not increase at the rate the
       | underlying hardware improves at.
       | 
       | It's reasonable to presume there's now an entire generation of
       | developers who simply don't know what's possible in state of the
       | art hardware.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | or hardware at all. everything runs on VMs
        
       | shinzui wrote:
       | It's worth noting that Basecamp's architecture relies on vertical
       | scaling, which can get very expensive in the cloud.
        
         | qeternity wrote:
         | How so? Email is a fairly embarrassingly parallel problem.
        
           | shinzui wrote:
           | DHH's preferred architecture is a rails monolith with a
           | single database behind it that you keep scaling vertically. I
           | believe both Hey and Basecamp are still using that
           | architecture.
        
       | braingenious wrote:
       | This is kind of tangential, but back in the early-mid 2000s I
       | remember there being a little utility that allowed you to
       | download individual files from inside of a zip file over HTTP. I
       | want to say that it was made by 37signals but I might be
       | completely mis-remembering the whole thing. Does anybody know
       | what I'm talking about?
        
         | jlundberg wrote:
         | Not sure what the name of the tool is, but the phenomenom exist
         | and the ZIP format makes it feasible (especially for store only
         | files).
         | 
         | Guesss that's why a JAR or APK is a ZIP file with another name.
        
       | albertgao wrote:
       | Have the similar thought before:
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/albertgao/status/1582402385569525761?s=4...
        
       | jebr224 wrote:
       | I would enjoy real world (apples to apples) comparison of the
       | cost of cloud vs self hosting. There are many speculations and
       | approximates, but some hard facts would go along way.
        
         | api wrote:
         | It's 100% work load dependent. Cloud makes dealing with
         | complexity cheaper in many cases by letting you outsource admin
         | to managed services, and is great if you need elastic scaling.
         | Bare metal on the other hand can be many orders of magnitude
         | cheaper for compute and _especially_ bandwidth. Cloud bandwidth
         | pricing is completely insane, up to 1000X more than bare metal
         | hosting.
         | 
         | There is no one size fits all advice. You have to model your
         | work load. Take scale into account too. Cloud often makes far
         | more sense at a small scale than a very large scale since labor
         | costs can amortize. There comes a point at which hiring admins
         | may be cheaper than paying cloud costs.
        
         | pclmulqdq wrote:
         | I wrote one of the big speculations and approximates. In real
         | life, it is very much workload dependent, but the balance skews
         | a lot more in favor of self-hosting (or cheap hosting
         | companies) than IT leaders (used to) think.
         | 
         | I think the three best reasons to use the cloud are: (1) If you
         | have a very bursty workload, (2) if you need compliance with
         | specific government regulations that are expensive to certify,
         | or (3) if your app is a hobby project or otherwise fits inside
         | the free tier.
         | 
         | A lot of applications fit into one of these categories, and,
         | anecdotally, people running them are very happy with the cloud.
         | Most CRUD apps today do not fit into those categories.
         | 
         | I have also seen companies have a lot of success with hybrid
         | cloud deployments, where they run a datacenter for their base
         | load and scale out into the cloud when they need to do more
         | work.
        
       | snotrockets wrote:
       | Can't wait for their post in 3 or so years about moving their
       | workloads back to the cloud.
        
         | WesolyKubeczek wrote:
         | It could even be reasonable because (gasp!) the cloud might
         | change yet again.
         | 
         | But I'm rather positive it won't.
        
         | quickthrower2 wrote:
         | Hokey Pokey computing? Probably they will move it half way back
         | into the cloud (move it to "the edge").
        
         | simplotek wrote:
         | > _Can't wait for their post in 3 or so years about moving
         | their workloads back to the cloud._
         | 
         | What leads you to believe that paying a premium to someone else
         | to use their computers is a solution that fits each and every
         | single case?
         | 
         | Even AWS is clear in how their present their offering as
         | something that allows projects to grow and scale quickly while
         | avoiding upfront costs buying and hosting their own hardware.
        
           | snotrockets wrote:
           | You don't pay the cloud providers (just) for their computing
           | power.
        
             | tuyenhx wrote:
             | So what do we pay for except computing power?
             | 
             | Ease of scale? Ease of development cost? Or other marketing
             | material?
        
               | andrewguenther wrote:
               | Security, compliance, flexibility...
        
       | staunch wrote:
       | A good definition of The Cloud is just "servers in a datacenter"
       | so the discussion is best framed as Private Cloud (on-prem or co-
       | located servers) vs Public Cloud (AWS, etc) or some combination.
       | 
       | People with expertise in running private clouds _and_ using
       | public cloud services can judge each case pretty easily, by
       | taking into account the organization 's technical needs, plans,
       | budget, abilities, etc. And for non-experts, the question is even
       | simpler: use the public clouds if or until it becomes a technical
       | or financial blocker. And in that case, hire an expert.
       | 
       | There's really not a lot of room for controversy. It seems most
       | of the arguments come from people without the relevant expertise,
       | who only know how to develop in public clouds, responding
       | defensively. Like people with little programming experience
       | flaming each other over which language is "best".
       | 
       | There's no single "best" cloud option, since they're just
       | different tools for different things. Sometimes either way would
       | work, in which case it comes down to personal preference, and
       | sometimes there's a clearly better option for a specific
       | organization's needs. Framed correctly, it's a "boring" question
       | just like most technical questions should be.
        
       | juanse wrote:
       | A kind reminder that the cloud is just other people computers
        
         | EricE wrote:
         | One of my favorite stickers!
        
       | alfor wrote:
       | Servers are incredibly powerful today. You don't need much 'bare
       | metal' to serve a _lot_ of html.
       | 
       | One big box can get you quite far. When it's not enough: put the
       | DB on another big box. Not enough. Put a caching/proxy server
       | first.
       | 
       | You can use Cloudflare or others to offload even more
       | static/caching stuff outside.
       | 
       | Still way simpler than to understand why AWS billed you
       | something.
        
       | nathants wrote:
       | unless you want to grow an operationally excellent and well
       | staffed org, control plane should probably be public cloud.
       | 
       | cost plane, whether it be heavy on bytes at rest, bytes in
       | flight, or compute, could possibly be private cloud.
       | 
       | scale to zero is something not possible without public cloud. it
       | opens interesting doors like services priced cost plus.
       | 
       | what if zero usage had zero cost? what is all usage was
       | profitable?
       | 
       | from the perspective of an individual customer and assuming light
       | egress, lambda, ec2 spot, and s3 are shockingly affordable.
       | 
       | heavy egress is where you maybe do something else with the cost
       | plane. that could be private cloud, or cloudflare et al.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | I think, Simon Warldley summarised it good today. (0)
       | 
       | They (think, they) have a niche use-case which is a bad fit for
       | the cloud.
       | 
       | These niche use-cases exist, but they are niche, and most
       | companies, who think their use-case is that niche so it doesn't
       | fit the cloud,are probably wrong.
       | 
       | Chances are you belong to the vast number of companies that
       | should simply put their workloads in the cloud and be done with
       | it.
       | 
       | (0)
       | https://mobile.twitter.com/swardley/status/15838141696564592...
        
         | kortilla wrote:
         | Chances are you belong in the vast number of companies that
         | have a very static workload and you should move to a few colos
         | and be done with it.
        
           | snotrockets wrote:
           | otoh: very few workload are static. our world isn't
           | (circadian rhythm is a thing!) and this drives most of our
           | systems not to be such.
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | Static on a daily rolling average. You'll be hemorrhaging
             | money if you think moving to the cloud will save you money
             | because you have a daily trough.
             | 
             | The only places I've seen it work are:
             | 
             | - massive seasonal demand with negligible usage during off-
             | season (think TurboTax if it weren't part of Intuit)
             | 
             | - brand new product development where you don't even know
             | what you need yet or you are going through exponential
             | growth that you can't get ahead of. (This stage should only
             | last like 6 months though)
        
               | snotrockets wrote:
               | You are doing measuring wrong (look at distributions, not
               | a number), and moving to the cloud wrong (rearchitect
               | with elasticity and serverless in mind, don't just put it
               | on instances).
               | 
               | I was hoping those lessons would be a bit more common by
               | now.
        
         | jordanbeiber wrote:
         | If you've got global consumers of services you build, and or
         | need elastic scalability - sure.
         | 
         | Or if you're a really small company - sure. You should probably
         | rely on SaaS mainly.
         | 
         | I would say many companies fall outside of these categories
         | though and could potentially both save money and gain
         | performance staying on-prem.
         | 
         | I know my current employer does, and we're seriously looking at
         | moving back to on-prem/co-lo.
        
         | pojzon wrote:
         | Lift and shift proved itself to not work well. Its not cost
         | efficient for vast majority of businesses with legacy software.
         | 
         | To use cloud efficiently you have to build for it. Startups are
         | much more efficient in that regard in comparison to monolithic
         | applications running on premise.
        
         | kortilla wrote:
         | That entire thread is just a dumpster fire of bad analysis. He
         | dismisses everything that doesn't fit "serverless" as a niche
         | and doesn't mention cost of maintenance, transition, or lock-in
         | in serverless.
         | 
         | It's just a super lazy take from someone who likes to use
         | serverless because he doesn't like to maintain things. It's
         | essentially an argument to live in a hotel because they can do
         | maintenance at scale better than you.
        
           | youngtaff wrote:
           | I think you underestimate Simon's analysis... don't forget he
           | built some of the early PaaS / cloud providers
           | 
           | And with his maps he'll have analysed things quite
           | effectively
           | 
           | I might disagree with him on the EU but his technology
           | analysis is usually bang on
        
             | darkwater wrote:
             | IDK the guy but the whole tone of the thread sounds like
             | that he is biased/have some interest. If you go back 4
             | years in time, everything in 2022 was going to be
             | serverless. Reality check: it didn't happen, the only "fad"
             | that actually materialized for almost everybody is
             | Kubernetes (which actually helps with going back to bare
             | metal).
        
         | dmitriid wrote:
         | The absolute vast majority of companies can run from the
         | cheapest Digital Ocean droplet for an indefinitely long time.
         | No cloud necessary.
        
         | dijit wrote:
         | > These niche use-cases exist, but they are niche, and most
         | companies, who think their use-case is that niche so it doesn't
         | fit the cloud,are probably wrong.
         | 
         | Conversely: I find that the inverse is true very often.
         | 
         | People are very quick to throw their current systems away in
         | favour of the cloud due to a myriad of reasons; be it sticker
         | shock, promise of less headcount, the idea that you can hire
         | people easier or simply because of a Gartner report that your
         | CTO happened to read on a flight.
         | 
         | This causes migrations to the cloud that kinda don't make
         | sense, they're borne out of ideology or "not being left behind"
         | and sometimes it fails catastrophically.
         | 
         | We would do well not to cargo cult, but reasonably deduce and
         | argue what our objectives truly are.
        
           | mey wrote:
           | I wonder how many companies have been crippled by
           | executives/managers reading Gartner reports. That's probably
           | a business study unto itself.
        
             | dopylitty wrote:
             | A couple years into my career I came to the realization
             | that working in the tech side of a non-tech business is not
             | necessarily about providing what the business needs. It's
             | about convincing the business to pay for what you want for
             | your own reasons (resume, prestige, continued employment )
             | 
             | I have been on many teams that could've easily been in
             | maintenance mode and not changed anything for years. The
             | business would've hummed along stably and profitably. But
             | it's hard to justify your job in IT if you say your roadmap
             | is to just keep doing what you're doing. Nevermind the
             | people in between business and IT who really contribute to
             | neither.
             | 
             | So we get these pendulum swings and huge projects (move
             | everything to cloud, move everything back, make engineering
             | do ops, make a dedicated ops team, micro segment
             | everything, flat network everything) just so IT management
             | can convince the business they're providing some value.
             | 
             | Gartner is the "independent" third party that allows IT
             | folks and tech vendors to convince the business they are
             | doing the right thing.
             | 
             | And yeah I'm sure some of these pendulum swings have come
             | at great cost to the business, even halting it entirely
             | (SAP)
        
             | semicolon_storm wrote:
             | Some of Gartner's analysis can be spot on, but god some of
             | it is so bad I can't help but cringe. Their recent push for
             | low code/no code everywhere and calling this the "final
             | decade of applications" is in the later category.
             | 
             | There's going to be mountain of companies going out of
             | business in 5 years due to following Gartner's low/no code
             | advice.
        
               | notabee wrote:
               | Don't forget that the already beleaguered world of
               | government IT _also_ listens to Gartner. But government
               | doesn 't really go out of business when that bad advice
               | leads to bad initiatives, it just becomes even more
               | dysfunctional.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | Veliladon wrote:
         | I don't think it's as niche as people want to believe. The
         | monetization models of cloud compute is clearly having compute
         | act as a loss leader. The real revenue is picked up on the
         | borderline egregious egress charges which are, coincidentally
         | I'm sure, the hardest thing to estimate. Every other provider
         | needs to follow this same monetization because then their
         | choices are the top line being an eye-popping figure or making
         | no money.
        
         | Beltalowda wrote:
         | > simply put their workloads in the cloud and be done with it
         | 
         | I've worked all sorts of cloud environments for about ten years
         | now, and with metal servers before that, and I'm not all that
         | convinced that the cloud is saving all that much in terms of
         | engineering effort. Or if it does, I haven't experienced it.
         | 
         | Sure, no one gets woken up at 4AM because your server's disks
         | are failing, but instead you get woken up at 4AM because all
         | your cloud native infrastructure is doing $funky_stuff. And
         | yeah, no need to install and maintain servers any more, but now
         | you need to write a whole bunch of code to interface with all
         | the cloud stuff and maintain that. Lots of open positions for
         | k8s engineers "dev-ops" engineers to make all of that work.
         | 
         | I run my stuff on Linode VPS's, which is "the cloud" as in
         | "renting servers", but it's not "the cloud" as in all the
         | "cloud native" stuff we have now. My experience is that
         | sometimes the cloud makes things easy, and it makes things
         | harder. On balance, it seems we just swapped one set of
         | problems for another set of problems, and we haven't really
         | gained all that much in the end.
         | 
         | I don't think Hey is running a "niche edge case"; it seems
         | fairly standard stuff to me. That Tweet comes off as quite
         | dismissive.
        
           | pclmulqdq wrote:
           | The tweet thread came off in the completely wrong way to me,
           | and suggested that the person writing it was pretty ignorant
           | about how software engineering actually works. Are you
           | suggesting that everyone should be using [insert dev fad
           | here] for all but a few special cases?
           | 
           | Have you considered that sometimes (really, almost all the
           | time) people run code that is more than 2 years old? Have you
           | considered the costs of things like serverless when you have
           | a reasonably constant load?
           | 
           | I am a huge fan of cloud as a platform for time-shared server
           | rentals. Cloud for "value added" products like serverless and
           | whatever new database they cook up starts to get really funky
           | and weird, in addition to being extremely expensive.
        
             | k__ wrote:
             | Wardley assumes serverless is the continuation of decades
             | of cloud evolution.
             | 
             | He doesn't see it as a fad to use the cloud and serverless,
             | but as the natural way of things, like you don't build your
             | own power plant or highway.
        
               | georgebarnett wrote:
               | People keep using the power plant analogy as if somehow
               | there isn't a massive shift towards solar and batteries,
               | which are literally building a power plant on your roof.
        
               | k__ wrote:
               | Well, you're literally not building and maintaining it on
               | your own.
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | Wardley seems to have a narrow perspective on things,
               | then. Lots of large companies build their own roads and
               | power plants. Hell, I put solar panels on my roof.
               | 
               | In fact, there are very few companies over a certain size
               | that haven't built a road. This kind of overhead is
               | generally expected once you have scale, because the
               | alternatives are far more expensive. Datacenters are
               | similar.
        
               | k__ wrote:
               | How much of all companies build their own roads?
        
           | jdoss wrote:
           | I felt the tweet thread was dismissive as well. Hey is
           | running pretty standard Rails things IIRC and I wouldn't
           | consider them niche. They like to make money and they know
           | they can make more of it if they run on baremetal. I think
           | more companies are going to move back to a more hybrid model
           | of cloud + baremetal in the next 10 years. Especially the
           | ones that need more power, flexibility, and cost savings from
           | their infra.
           | 
           | You nailed it on the head. The problems have just moved from
           | one camp to another. We make our life easier because we can
           | talk to an API to get our network, compute, and storage but
           | the complexity in doing so has a pretty high price as well.
           | The current devops trends are mindbogglingly complex compared
           | to most of software that is getting deployed with them.
        
         | bayraktar wrote:
         | _These niche use-cases exist, but they are niche, and most
         | companies, who think their use-case is that niche so it doesn
         | 't fit the cloud, are probably wrong._
         | 
         | Talk about broad, sweeping statements. Care to substantiate?
        
         | machinekob wrote:
         | Just put everything in cloud, use closed-in vendor solutions
         | and overpriced eager fees as its typical VC way to just burn
         | money cause "developers cost more" (maybe in California).
         | 
         | I was big cloud enjoyer in like 2016-20 but then some hacker
         | news post open my eyes to the truth. They are trying to milk
         | everyone and hook every possible person on some free credits
         | then bump prices and get fat profits and ofc make as hard as
         | possible getting out of the platform.
         | 
         | I just don't care and move to smaller providers for VPS and
         | database + cloudflare for dns and pseudo s3 (still in almost
         | free tier).
        
       | albertgao wrote:
       | Similar idea:
       | https://twitter.com/albertgao/status/1582402385569525761
        
       | marban wrote:
       | Also https://world.hey.com/dhh/why-we-re-leaving-the-
       | cloud-654b47...
        
         | metadat wrote:
         | Also discussed 3 days ago:
         | 
         |  _37signals Leaves the Cloud_
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33260061
         | 
         | (245 points, 78 comments)
        
       | worik wrote:
       | Computing started in the cloud.
       | 
       | Once upon a time computer bureaus sold time on their main frames,
       | and you used a terminal (on a 1200 baud modem) to communicate
       | with it.
       | 
       | Computer programmers were all men in ties, and fine looking
       | suits.....
       | 
       | History rhymes
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | but it really exploded when it decentralized
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | rglover wrote:
       | Having just spent the better part of the last year building a
       | service that deploys to multiple cloud providers, this choice
       | makes sense (or at the very least, I can understand the root
       | _why_ ). Beyond cost concerns, there's a staggering amount of
       | complexity and low-quality UX/DX around this stuff that I don't
       | see changing or improving any time soon (if ever).
       | 
       | Once I got into the thick of it, I actually started to have the
       | thought "what would it look like to just run co-located boxes
       | like the old days or do this on prem?" The answer was of course
       | "waaaay simpler."
       | 
       | While I don't think we'll see an industry-wide shift back in this
       | direction, I _do_ see it happening on a non-trivial scale.
       | Especially as things like economic instability and censorship wax
       | and wane and wax in the coming decades.
        
       | WesolyKubeczek wrote:
       | All of this is nice and sounds rather obvious to many over here.
       | I think the HN's hivemind has already chewed through most of the
       | arguments they are making.
       | 
       | What I want to see is what they are going to replace the cloud
       | with, how the numbers compare, and what tradeoffs they have had
       | to make. Preferably a year after they make their transitions. An
       | honest comparison that makes it possible for other companies in a
       | similar situation to clear their doubts (in some cases "clearing
       | doubts" would mean "we're staying in the cloud"; I'd like this
       | kind of honest).
       | 
       | Thus I'm staying tuned, with a grain of doubt. After all, it's
       | possible that the transition off cloud will take time and may
       | even fizz out without achieving much. Oh, and I'm wondering
       | what's the cost of moving the data itself off cloud is going to
       | be.
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | A student of mine did a rather good thesis on de-clouding. In the
       | process she discovered the term "cloud repatriation" a fair bit
       | of literature on the movement to bring control of data and
       | hardware back 'on-prem'.
       | 
       | She also noted that when you search on these terms the main
       | engines (all run by cloud service providers) return poor results
       | not congruent with the scale of the phenomenon. They are
       | dominated by the opposite message obviously heavily SEO'd up to
       | the top, plus shill pieces pushing cloud services but presented
       | as "critical". Dig deep if you want to find the real scale of the
       | "anti-cloud" issues.
       | 
       | Her main conclusion was very interesting though. That the big
       | issue is not finance, reliability or control - but de-skilling.
       | 
       | As companies move their operations out to the cloud it's not the
       | disappearance of hardware from the premises but the loss of
       | skill-sets. Later they don't even know who to hire or how to
       | write the JD to bring people back in.
       | 
       | A good example was the broadcast industry. Entire branches of
       | that industry doing post-production, colour, transcoding, and
       | whatnot moved it all out to AWS. After price hikes, they wanted
       | to go back to running their own services. But they can't. Because
       | nobody knows about how to set-up and run that any longer -
       | especially specialist things like buffers and transcoders. I
       | mean, try finding a sys-admin who can just do simple tasks like
       | set up and properly configure a mail server these days.
        
         | phpisthebest wrote:
         | I would make the case, especially in the broadcast /
         | entertainment industry, that is was not the cloud that resulted
         | in de-skilling but rather outsourcing / off shoring.
         | 
         | There are famous examples of large media companies screwing
         | over their internal IT depts through out the 2000's and 2010's
        
         | majormajor wrote:
         | Nobody knew how to use the cloud when it first came out, and
         | AWS and GCP are both fairly obtuse. IAM alone...
         | 
         | Hell, for that matter, nobody knew how to set up a transcode
         | server for live streaming 30 years ago - it's not some ancient
         | art where we lost 50+ years of experience.
         | 
         | I don't believe that people who can learn to operate cloud
         | services can't learn how to rack servers and install software.
         | Ten to fifteen years ago I was in companies where ten percent
         | of the software team was managing the datacenter. Now ten
         | percent is managing kubernetes and AWS and all that. I've seen
         | the cloud be better for smaller shops since you no longer have
         | to have that server management if you only have one or two
         | people, but I haven't seen it "deskill" things so much as
         | "differently skill" them in larger orgs.
        
         | turtlebits wrote:
         | I'm not sure I agree. It's not de-skilling, it's not needing to
         | hire a skilled/specialists to implement/operate. If you're
         | using the cloud, you almost never need to consult or assign
         | work to a network engineer. IME, reliance on DBAs is also way
         | down.
        
         | dgemm wrote:
         | > Her main conclusion was very interesting though. That the big
         | issue is not finance, reliability or control - but de-skilling.
         | 
         | > As companies move their operations out to the cloud it's not
         | the disappearance of hardware from the premises but the loss of
         | skill-sets. Later they don't even know who to hire or how to
         | write the JD to bring people back in.
         | 
         | So in that respect it's similar to outsourcing any other aspect
         | of your business - there are many examples of hollowed-out
         | suppliers of manufactured products that no longer have the
         | ability to build things themselves.
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | Yes I think that's right. It's a general pattern, Outsourcing
           | disempowers in unexpected ways. The "finding", as it were, is
           | that for some reason people in tech are surprised by this.
           | 
           | They don't readily see that moving to the cloud increases
           | entropy. You can't easily go back the other way, and so maybe
           | companies should understand cloud as a one way process and
           | think much more about the value they have and will be losing.
        
         | pojzon wrote:
         | Very easy to find those ppl, you just have to pull them out
         | from Cloud Providers Data Centers.
         | 
         | But you have to pay them enough or that is going to be like
         | pulling teeth out.
         | 
         | And this is where the problems start.
        
         | withinboredom wrote:
         | Interestingly, I took a ~5 year hiatus from writing code right
         | smack in the beginning of the "cloud phenomenon," and upon
         | returning, realized how much things had changed, with both
         | skill levels and specialization. Before my hiatus, a dev
         | could/would single-handedly run a site for a small/medium
         | business. Handling everything from server procurement to FTPing
         | the files to the server and even server maintenance. When I got
         | back, this was "a big no-no" and mostly frowned upon.
         | Everything was deployed by "git push" (fancy FTP?), problem
         | with a server? just deploy a new one, and if an AWS region goes
         | down ... it's ok, everyone else is down too and we have no idea
         | when it will be back.
         | 
         | That last sentence was something you never said to a boss back
         | in '07-08. You would always know what was wrong and how bad it
         | was within a few minutes of the issue, at least 90%+ of the
         | time anyway. You could probably even guess how long it would be
         | down for within ~10-15 minutes of discovering the issue.
         | 
         | FWIW, I think small/medium size businesses were/are probably
         | the most affected by cloudification since those had the "most
         | to gain" in the beginning. Then again, those were the types of
         | businesses that I had the most interaction with until 2014-ish,
         | I don't know what it looked like from a big-business
         | perspective.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | AWS going down is in no way dissimilar to L3 going down back
           | in the day. You were still down and there was not much you
           | could do about it.
        
           | phpisthebest wrote:
           | >>That last sentence was something you never said to a boss
           | back in '07-08.
           | 
           | Modern IT is swapped with CYA / No Accountablity
           | 
           | Cloud is not the only area this presents itself, everyone is
           | more concerns about not being blamed for an issue than they
           | are with resolving the issue. The more vendors you can point
           | the blame to the better in their eyes...
        
             | sekh60 wrote:
             | Not really IT's fault. Mainly management always wanting a
             | neck to choke.
        
           | Moissanite wrote:
           | The key to this is: which is worse for middle management; a
           | 15 minute outage which is your fault, or a 2 hour outage you
           | can blame on AWS?
           | 
           | Cloud is to the IT department as big consulting companies are
           | to HR.
        
             | gw99 wrote:
             | I learned recently that the customers kick you in the balls
             | once per minute either way. Loudly on Twitter.
        
           | PragmaticPulp wrote:
           | > Handling everything from server procurement to FTPing the
           | files to the server and even server maintenance. When I got
           | back, this was "a big no-no" and mostly frowned upon.
           | Everything was deployed by "git push" (fancy FTP?),
           | 
           | While I do look back with nostalgia on the days of editing
           | files in Notepad++, FTPing them to a live server, then
           | quickly switching to my browser to refresh the page and make
           | sure it works...
           | 
           | Those days are in the past for a reason. No, git is not
           | "fancy FTP". Yes, version control really does add much-needed
           | structure to collaborative projects and change tracking.
           | 
           | You can still run a small business web server on a colocated
           | server and FTP files to it if you want. You just won't find
           | any modern engineers who want to touch that with a 10ft pole.
           | The world has moved forward since then, and for good reason.
        
             | quickthrower2 wrote:
             | > Days of editing files in Notepad++, FTPing them to a live
             | server, then quickly switching to my browser to refresh the
             | page and make sure it works...
             | 
             | If you just add local machine testing, and a test server to
             | that mix, what is the problem?
        
             | nonrandomstring wrote:
             | > and for good reason.
             | 
             | Good reasons for some people. But it turned out that those
             | reasons (which you avoid explicating) were not so good for
             | some people after all. Methods upon which you now "look
             | back with nostalgia" had value which endures, namely
             | control, simplicity, low cost at small scale, and a basis
             | in standardised, accessible knowledge. These things are not
             | valued much any more, but it's my opinion (and of others)
             | that is a mistake.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | > But it turned out that those reasons (which you avoid
               | explicating) were not so good for some people after all.
               | 
               | I lived through part of that transition - I'll try and
               | explicate through my own experiences.
               | 
               | The biggest thing automated deployments solved was human
               | error. No more "oops, you forgot to FTP the JPEGs in
               | binary mode" or "accidentally unploaded into a nested
               | www/www folder". The transition was initially to tools
               | like Ansible and Fabric which automated the transfer
               | steps but had to be triggered manually. This also saved
               | me a lot of time and pain.
               | 
               | However, this still left a gap where it was still
               | possible to push broken code into production, so
               | Continuous Integration (and/or Continuous Deployment)
               | became fashionable. The benefits of these were you'd
               | never push code that fails tests to production, the depth
               | and breadth of tests being left up to you.
               | 
               | Incidentally, these developments coincided with my
               | working with ever growing team sizes. There's no way I
               | could have worked with 5 people with everyone S/FTP'ng
               | stuff to prod. Neither would have Fabric + git been
               | sufficient for four 5-engineer team working on the same
               | software product. That's yet another benefit of the new
               | way of doing things: it scales.
               | 
               | I think the additional benefits of checking-in your
               | configuration and deployment steps into a version control
               | system are self-evident.
        
             | withinboredom wrote:
             | > No, git is not "fancy FTP"
             | 
             | I was specifically referencing an old fad (might still be a
             | thing but I haven't run into it in years) where production
             | is a remote and a dev pushes their main branch to it to
             | deploy. Yes, version control is amazing and it was
             | something I used a bunch before my hiatus, but back then,
             | it was usually SVN IIRC.
        
               | PragmaticPulp wrote:
               | Using source control tools as part of the deploy process
               | really is a valuable innovation. It's not an "old fad".
               | 
               | I think you're clinging a bit too heavily to the "good
               | old days". It's ironic how this entire thread has turned
               | into a mix of people either
               | 
               | 1) complaining that modern technology is too complex and
               | complicated
               | 
               | or
               | 
               | 2) complaining that modern job applicants have lost the
               | skills necessary to run things
        
               | withinboredom wrote:
               | That's an interesting take. But nah, I like some things
               | the way they are now vs. back then. I love having
               | cheap/easy CI that deploys to prod for me. I love having
               | IDEs that are actually geared towards whatever language
               | I'm writing in this year. I love having access to cheaper
               | coloc space because most people aren't using it. I love
               | having skills that most people don't even bother learning
               | anymore when digging into performance issues. ...
               | 
               | There is much I love about today and I look forward to
               | the future. I was just stating my observations. And yes,
               | `git deploy prod` is a fancy FTP, but probably even worse
               | than FTP if the build actually happens on the production
               | server (which is something I saw more than once) and
               | causes a production outage (also saw more than once).
        
               | nonrandomstring wrote:
               | > complex and complicated
               | 
               | Complexity is not a virtue. It is a dangerous resilience
               | anti-pattern and should not be lionised.
               | 
               | Unless you're insinuating that things in fact remain
               | simple but the complaints of complexity are down to the
               | stupidity of commenters.
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > She also noted that when you search on these terms the main
         | engines (all run by cloud service providers) return poor
         | results not congruent with the scale of the phenomenon. They
         | are dominated by the opposite message obviously heavily SEO'd
         | up to the top, plus shill pieces pushing cloud services but
         | presented as "critical". Dig deep if you want to find the real
         | scale of the "anti-cloud" issues.
         | 
         | Are you really suggesting that search engine providers are
         | manipulating their own search results to bury some sort of
         | hidden "truth" about a people leaving the cloud? Suggesting
         | that people need to "dig deep" to find the real scale of the
         | issue sounds a lot like the "do your own research" line that
         | gets attached to dubious conspiracy theories.
         | 
         | The simple explanation is that your student simply anchored her
         | personal beliefs to an idea that this was a large movement, but
         | her light research didn't match her pre-conceived beliefs. This
         | is how conspiracy theories are born.
         | 
         | Regardless, this claim doesn't hold up to even basic scrutiny.
         | I just Googled for "cloud repatriation" and all of the results
         | are think pieces about why moving out of the cloud is a good
         | thing.
         | 
         | Try it for yourself:
         | https://www.google.com/search?q=%22cloud+repatriation%22&oq=...
         | 
         | > A good example was the broadcast industry. Entire branches of
         | that industry doing post-production, colour, transcoding, and
         | whatnot moved it all out to AWS. After price hikes, they wanted
         | to go back to running their own services. But they can't.
         | Because nobody knows about how to set-up and run that any
         | longer - especially specialist things like buffers and
         | transcoders. I mean, try finding a sys-admin who can just do
         | simple tasks like set up and properly configure a mail server
         | these days.
         | 
         | If you can't find sysadmins with basic competencies or
         | engineers who can build systems as simple as buffering and
         | transcoding, I can almost guarantee that the real issue is that
         | you're not paying enough for the position.
         | 
         | Either that, or the applicants can recognize from a mile away
         | that your company is not the kind of place that skilled
         | engineers actually want to work for.
         | 
         | Don't mistake your lack of candidates for a lack of skill in
         | the market.
        
           | diogofranco wrote:
           | I find the "you're not paying enough" argument a little
           | strange. By definition, not every company can pay top of
           | market and get the most skilled engineers.
           | 
           | If the average engineer doesn't have a certain skill, I think
           | it's fair to say that it's hard to hire for it, because it
           | will be for the average company.
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | It's less likely that search engines would manipulate this
           | and much much much more likely that the SEO'd commercial
           | content would be dominated by "move to the cloud!" type stuff
           | because that's what's easy to sell these days.
           | 
           | "Don't move to the cloud!" is hard to make money by selling
           | to places not in the cloud.
           | 
           | "Move out of the cloud" is harder to sell to places in the
           | cloud than "move to the cloud" is to sell to places not in
           | the cloud, because (a) bigger orgs with big budgets to make
           | money off of tend to be older and not in the cloud fully in
           | the first place and (b) moving out of the cloud is less turn-
           | key - every client is going to be different and likely lower-
           | margin than pushing clients into the same set of existing
           | packaged cloud services.
           | 
           | That said, I'm not aware of any companies from people in my
           | network that are actively moving out of the cloud... so I
           | also don't buy that it's a big trend.
        
           | dirtball_ wrote:
           | That's right! It's a management problem through and through.
           | Always has been.
        
           | bachmeier wrote:
           | > Are you really suggesting that search engine providers are
           | manipulating their own search results to bury some sort of
           | hidden "truth" about a people leaving the cloud? Suggesting
           | that people need to "dig deep" to find the real scale of the
           | issue sounds a lot like the "do your own research" line that
           | gets attached to dubious conspiracy theories.
           | 
           | I don't have any knowledge of the particular topic, but
           | you're suggesting that firms maximizing profit is a lunatic
           | conspiracy theory. May not be what you intended, but your
           | toxic comment was a bit nutty.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | I think every place I've worked has acknowledged at least
             | one happy accident and moved on. The thing with antitrust
             | laws and anti collusion laws is that when you get big
             | enough, you're not allowed to just notice such things and
             | ignore them. Not unlike how larger animals and people have
             | to be more careful where they step.
        
         | Moissanite wrote:
         | Very heartening to know other people are thinking about this.
         | For about 4 or 5 years I've been warning about an equivalent
         | problem in the HPC space, whereby even if on-prem is cheaper,
         | companies will be forced to adopt cloud due to the lack of
         | skilled bare-metal sysadmins.
         | 
         | I should note that these warnings aren't accompanied by much
         | sympathy; companies and academic institutions both do a
         | profoundly terrible job at incubating the skills they need,
         | then bleat at their local governments about new graduates not
         | having the skills to be employable.
        
           | fock wrote:
           | curiously at the small chair I work, the professor goes
           | against that flow and we do our small cluster all on our own.
           | We also don't have much money (small), so dedicating probably
           | half a year of state-funded PhD-time paid off (still quite
           | academic around here) as we now have an environment newcomers
           | can get work with in week 1. On top me and a colleague have a
           | niche but interesting skillset pxe-booting a slurm cluster,
           | running RoCE and NFS. Our softwaredistribution (as in
           | "compiled sensibly"...) is arguably better than on some parts
           | of the HPC-center (continent-wide academic TOP10 iirc)
           | nearby. Also a first year PhD has some interest in that and
           | will probably carry this on.
        
             | WJW wrote:
             | I don't have a lot of insight in academic funding and I
             | know the meme that PhDs don't get paid a lot, but is it
             | really better to use presumably very highly trained PhDs to
             | do the grunt work of systems administration rather than
             | actual research? Honest question here, it just seems
             | logical to hire dedicated technicians for the not-research
             | work?
        
               | fock wrote:
               | there is no money for dedicated techs nowadays. Also
               | hiring a competent sysadmin to do on-prem HPC-Linux might
               | prove challenging. And while it is grunt work sometimes
               | (but more so is academic research in lab, which to 90%
               | could be rationalized by a labtech...), it's not too
               | stupid if the people programming the system know how the
               | system works. Aside from racking severs, that's
               | essentially what SRE does, no?
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | Every architecture I've been responsible for has been better
           | because of having conversations with operational people in
           | which they tell me how divorced one of my ideas is from
           | operational reality. Nobody would build a cluster that way
           | because X.
           | 
           | And then they started taking away my Ops people.
        
           | PragmaticPulp wrote:
           | > companies will be forced to adopt cloud due to the lack of
           | skilled bare-metal sysadmins.
           | 
           | More likely that they're just not paying enough, and those
           | skilled sysadmins would rather go to any other company that
           | will pay them appropriately for their skills.
           | 
           | This is just another take on the "nobody wants to work
           | anymore" rant that happens when companies can't understand
           | why nobody is accepting their open positions.
        
             | phpisthebest wrote:
             | I think both are actually true.
             | 
             | Companies are not paying enough, but we also do not have as
             | many opportunities (for SysAdmins) to learn things.
             | 
             | Paid Internships, Jr Admin Roles, etc are fewer and far
             | between, companies are looking for "experienced" people in
             | a time where alot of the experience is retiring.
             | 
             | Dont get me wrong there are plenty of us Gen X's out there
             | with lots of experience but most of us are also massively
             | over worked with limited opportunities given for us to
             | train the next generation, so pay is only 1 part of this
             | problem, head count is the other
             | 
             | Even if you find a company that has good pay, they almost
             | always under size their IT dept by 25-50%, and rarely
             | promote internal training or continuing education, or offer
             | entry level admin positions with the goal to skill up
             | people.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | It's worse than that, he's dead, Jim.
               | 
               | I think if you want to go back into history and look at
               | things, we had sysadmins who were not paid enough, but
               | fell into "give a man a little power" trap and showed a
               | side of themselves that we would rather not see, fed and
               | reinforced by getting blamed for anything bad that
               | happened 'on their watch'. The cumulative generational
               | trauma on both sides of that relationship sets us up for
               | a situation where outsourcing IT to someone who can't
               | sass back or harass us about our deployment plans seems
               | like a good deal. Yeah it costs about the same and it'll
               | interrupt our roadmap but I get to 'stick it' to the IT
               | department. Fuck those guys.
               | 
               | Now it's been a while and people are starting to feel
               | nostalgia for the old days.
        
           | bazoom42 wrote:
           | > even if on-prem is cheaper
           | 
           | Surely this calculation should include the cost of people
           | with the required skills?
        
             | EricE wrote:
             | To quote TFA: "Some things are simpler, others more
             | complex, but on the whole, I've yet to hear of
             | organizations at our scale being able to materially shrink
             | their operations team, just because they moved to the
             | cloud."
             | 
             | Something I've observed for some time as well. If Ops was
             | truly outsourced to the cloud service providers then why is
             | devops such a buzzword/trend, hmm?
        
           | c0l0 wrote:
           | It will get worse when the manufacturers of the best
           | performing hardware will be the cloud providers themselves :)
           | I am afraid Amazon will slowly drown out independent CPU (and
           | eventually other gear, but with CPUs the playbook is most
           | evident) manufacturers.
           | 
           | Today, Intel (and probably also AMD et al.) offer them
           | exclusive deals on and even exclusive models of their
           | hardware, due to the insane volumes "hyper-scalers" procure.
           | In parallel, Amazon offers their own CPU arch (Graviton)
           | cheaper than x86 cores to users of their platform in order to
           | make it more attractive - at the insane margin AWS operates
           | at, it can make these instances a loss leader, no problem. As
           | a result, those in the x86 market that do not have a cloud
           | business attached will grow weaker and weaker in comparison,
           | and most cloud-native developer mindshare will shift to the
           | cheaper option (since most engineering work in cloud envs is
           | about reducing cost, period), which is AWS/GCP/... custom
           | CPUs. And you, the random shmuck with an appetite for
           | powerful on-prem hardware, will be left with worse products
           | to buy for a higher price.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | The 'cool' thing - from a vendor's perspective at least -
             | is that running your applications locally gives you a lower
             | confidence interval when production is a different chip
             | architecture than developer machines, so you have to spin
             | up more pre-prod machines to be really sure your code
             | actually behaves. Or use some other strategy that all ends
             | in the same place: more servers to concurrently run more
             | revisions of your code.
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | I'm not sure this is actually true. Intel and AMD are not
             | thrilled that Amazon and Google have so much market power
             | as their buyers. They are willing to give you a lot of
             | other value-added products and a TON of engineering help
             | along with their CPUs if you are buying a cluster. They
             | will also give you a decent price (not as good as they have
             | to give to hyperscalers, but good), and try to establish a
             | long-term relationship with you.
             | 
             | Also, cloud environments are rarely cost reductions. They
             | are very frequently more expensive than on-prem
             | deployments, but they are used because they are easy to
             | spin up and down and they allow you to engineer things
             | faster.
        
         | grepfru_it wrote:
         | > try finding a sys-admin who can just do simple tasks like set
         | up and properly configure a mail server these days.
         | 
         | Was just thinking last night that I need to stand up a mail
         | server to send/receive email from my self hosted products. Then
         | I thought of the leg work involved and said words I've never
         | though I would say: "I should just use SES and be done with it"
        
         | vishnugupta wrote:
         | Indeed. It's already getting difficult to hire a competent DBA
         | who can end-to-end manage a MySQL on a bare metal; things like
         | replication, backups, setting up data pipeline to data
         | warehouse and what not. I'd give it about 5-8 years before DBA
         | gets de-skilled.
         | 
         | Similarly, managing servers through Chef/Puppet used to be a
         | thing just a decade ago. Now with the onset of serverless,
         | Lambda etc., it's slowly fading away.
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | The total number of databases in the world has not gone down
           | though, rather the opposite I suspect. It's not that there
           | aren't any competent DBAs anymore, rather it's just that the
           | cloud companies have better offers for the DBAs out there
           | than most small/medium enterprises are willing to pay.
        
         | worik wrote:
         | > I mean, try finding a sys-admin who can just do simple tasks
         | like set up and properly configure a mail server these days.
         | 
         | I will do that. Horrible work. I would need >$200K/year....
        
         | the_third_wave wrote:
         | > the big issue is not finance, reliability or control - but
         | de-skilling. ... they don't even know who to hire or how to
         | write the JD to bring people back in. ... nobody knows about
         | how to set-up and run that any longer ... try finding a sys-
         | admin who can just do simple tasks like set up and properly
         | configure a mail server these days.
         | 
         | So that is where the next boom will be: a sysadmin-on-demand
         | service. Quick, someone create a start-up which connects those
         | with the required skills to those who need those skills, charge
         | a 30% fee and become the next greatest thing since sliced
         | bread.
        
         | simonebrunozzi wrote:
         | > when you search on these terms the main engines (all run by
         | cloud service providers) return poor results not congruent with
         | the scale of the phenomenon.
         | 
         | A dubious conspiracy theory, frankly.
        
           | PragmaticPulp wrote:
           | Not to mention, trivially debunked by typing the term into a
           | search engine: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22cloud+repat
           | riation%22&oq=...
           | 
           | I know HN comments bias heavily toward anti-cloud, but the
           | suggestion that all of the search engines are conspiring
           | together to bury some massive underground anti-cloud movement
           | (that conveniently confirms anti-cloud beliefs but is
           | unfortunately just hidden by evil search engines) is
           | laughable.
        
             | fock wrote:
             | they however need the quotes. Otherwise you drown in noise
             | about the great cloud. Have you tried searching for
             | performance figures without disabling amazon, azure and
             | google in the search? You won't find any.
             | 
             | Still it's probably just the general noise of the fully
             | oligopolized internet :).
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | I have never heard of 'cloud repatriation' until this very
             | thread. So if that's what I'm looking for but I don't know
             | what it's called, I have to use other terms, which _are_
             | likely to be SEO 'd to hell and back.
             | 
             | That's the yardstick to use here.
        
             | withinboredom wrote:
             | The researcher may also be getting "personalized results"
             | that have been biased by prior searches. I can't imagine
             | how you'd even control for that.
        
         | badrchoubai wrote:
         | Could you share some resources on this?
        
         | justapassenger wrote:
         | I largely agree, but setting up mail server these days is way,
         | way, way more complex than 10 years ago. It's not people losing
         | skills, it's technology itself becoming overly complex.
        
           | nocman wrote:
           | I disagree. It's a _little_ more complicated (due to SPF
           | /DKIM/DMARC), and that's annoying. However, I have set up
           | multiple mail servers in the past 10 years, and I don't find
           | the complexity to have increased that much. It is more
           | complex, but not "way, way, way more complex".
        
         | silasdavis wrote:
         | Perhaps you could link the thesis?
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | I'm definitely encouraging publication in a journal (maybe
           | dealing with industry resilience). Also I want some students
           | to come here and submit things via Show-HN, but they have to
           | want to do that themselves.
        
             | mstade wrote:
             | Your abstract is very intriguing, I'd love to read the
             | paper! Is there anything beyond commenting we can do to
             | help encourage publishing?
        
         | karmakurtisaani wrote:
         | Very interesting, thanks for sharing.
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | We run all our own hardware and I'd still outsource the email
         | server.
        
           | tonypags wrote:
           | Yes, absolutely agree
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | > After price hikes, they wanted to go back to running their
         | own services. But they can't. Because nobody knows about how to
         | set-up and run that any longer
         | 
         | Who could have possibly predicted that the trap-shaped box was
         | a trap?
         | 
         | The Trough Of Disillusionment is fast approaching. I'm
         | surprised it's taken as long as it has. But then it always
         | seems like the biggest, most expensive mistakes we make as an
         | industry defend themselves, since nobody can bear to admit to
         | themselves the magnitude of resources they set on fire in the
         | process.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | A million dollar per year RDS bill buys you, list price, a multi-
       | AZ deployment with 1024 state-of-the-art CPUs and 5TiB of memory
       | per replica, which strikes me as _much_ more than a mere tens of
       | thousands of email accounts would ever need.
        
         | dijit wrote:
         | State-of-the-art CPUs? I am suspicious of that as AWS has a lot
         | of old as hell CPUs floating around and in service.
         | 
         | Either way: You're not counting storage costs which are around
         | 70% of the costs in my deployments.
        
           | qeternity wrote:
           | AWS does not use SOTA anything due to their rigorous testing.
           | I'm not criticizing this...it would be dumb for them to run
           | bleeding edge anything.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | The price I quoted is for the m6i RDS instances which use
             | the very latest Xeon that Intel has ever marketed. You are
             | free to speculate as to whether the Graviton is more SOTA
             | than Ice Lake Xeon, but I know which one I will choose for
             | straight line performance.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | It's absolutely not the latest Xeon...but also Amazon
               | launched m6i in Aug 2021 and Ice Lake was released in
               | 2019.
               | 
               | The latest Xeons are Rocket Lake based.
        
         | fock wrote:
         | we just bought the same (-some memory) for 200k dollars. Dark
         | fibre costs maybe USD2000 (hard to come by numbers) per
         | 50miles/per month and then those 4 servers at each location
         | don't really need a fancy server room...
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | That's a pretty good deal on the hardware. List price of a
           | Lenovo ThinkSystem with 2x 32 core Xeon SP Gen 3, 512GB RAM
           | is $100k each, that $1.6 million for the quoted RDS setup,
           | and you still need a place to rack it up, electricity, and
           | cooling.
        
       | [deleted]
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | softwaredoug wrote:
       | My naive sense of things is compared to 10 years ago, now that we
       | have k8s and can more easily deploy what we want in arbitrary
       | environments, the cloud proposition becomes more about on-demand,
       | elastic compute, and less about specific services. But that also
       | because of k8s, we can also just have static set of compute and
       | solve 80% of the problem with whatever kind of service we need.
        
       | iuvcaw wrote:
       | The HN community 1) likes building and hacking, and 2) has
       | nostalgia for old technology. This makes them feel a lot of
       | affinity toward "doing things themselves" -- server
       | infrastructure, running desktop linux, avoiding dependencies in
       | their code.
       | 
       | The reality, though, is that the steady march of progress
       | encourages us to outsource what we can to people who are better
       | at the thing that is auxiliary to what we do. I don't grow food
       | because I'm bad at growing. I don't repair my car because I'm bad
       | at auto repair.
       | 
       | I do build software, and my company builds a very specific type
       | of software to solve very specific problems. I'm happy to focus
       | on that, because that's how we make money. Other people are much
       | better at building infrastructure than I am, and so I let them do
       | it for me. If there comes a time when the cloud offerings are
       | either worse than what I can build or too expensive, then I trust
       | someone else will come along and fill the gap in the market
       | before it becomes worthwhile for me to do it.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | but cloud is not outsourcing what you know how to build. afaik
         | it requires you learn new things and doing things in new ways,
         | permanently. And now you re stuck learning these proprietary
         | things that are intentionally incompatible with each other and
         | care about lock-in and money and such
         | 
         | you don't grow food because it s cheaper to buy, it's all about
         | economics (which takes care of division of labour; the word
         | literally means the division of things in a house). Free money
         | essentially means people who do random shit remain unpunished
        
         | pclmulqdq wrote:
         | This is true about HN, and a very healthy perspective on cloud.
         | It is very much the minority opinion that using the cloud is
         | like using a repair shop for a car. The vast majority of people
         | think they are saving money by doing it for one reason or
         | another, rather than effectively outsourcing dev competency.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, the competency you are outsourcing is rare and
         | getting rarer, meaning that infrastructure products are getting
         | very expensive (and profitable).
        
         | 10000truths wrote:
         | > The HN community 1) likes building and hacking, and 2) has
         | nostalgia for old technology. This makes them feel a lot of
         | affinity toward "doing things themselves" -- server
         | infrastructure, running desktop linux, avoiding dependencies in
         | their code.
         | 
         | It's not nostalgia, it's a cynical wisdom of surviving the
         | "move fast and break things" mentality with which so many
         | businesses shoot themselves in the foot. The more you can do in
         | house, the less impacted you are by externalities.
         | 
         | > The reality, though, is that the steady march of progress
         | encourages us to outsource what we can to people who are better
         | at the thing that is auxiliary to what we do.
         | 
         | Outsourcing isn't progress, it's a business strategy that
         | involves shifting responsibilities to a third party. Done
         | right, it's an effective way to build on previous work to
         | achieve an otherwise intractable business goal. Done wrong, it
         | devolves into a shitfest as your success lies at the mercy of
         | some entity whose interests are not necessarily aligned with
         | yours.
         | 
         | > I don't grow food because I'm bad at growing. I don't repair
         | my car because I'm bad at auto repair.
         | 
         | Because those things require serious investments in time and
         | money. But there's plenty of things you can quickly pick up
         | that make no financial sense to outsource. You can buy your own
         | groceries and cook your own meals. You can change your own
         | tires when you get a flat, or change your own oil when the
         | dashboard light comes on. Not everything that can be outsourced
         | should be.
        
         | lr4444lr wrote:
         | You're understating the case: you don't grow food even if
         | you're _good_ at growing, because your value add as a niche
         | software dev probably brings you much greater remuneration and
         | benefit to your customers than if you were a farmer.
        
         | qeternity wrote:
         | > I don't grow food because I'm bad at growing. I don't repair
         | my car because I'm bad at auto repair.
         | 
         | These analogies are really bad. It's not as if this is binary.
         | Nobody is suggesting you fab your own chips or build your own
         | data centers.
         | 
         | But you do cook (presumably) most of your own food, and you
         | drive your own car. You capture most of the benefit of
         | economies of scale and specialization, and then you do the last
         | 5%.
         | 
         | This is what people are talking about. AWS is like eating out
         | for every meal or taking an Uber everywhere. Sure it's
         | convenient, and has its time and place, but it's probably not
         | the best default option.
        
       | zrail wrote:
       | Cloud computing is a machine that turns capex into opex with a
       | hefty markup. Want to repatriate? Get ready to sell your
       | investors on the capital sink.
        
         | Silhouette wrote:
         | This always seems an odd argument for an industry where for
         | most of the last 20 years early money from optimistic VCs has
         | almost been falling from trees. Compensation for technical
         | people has been rocketing even in businesses that haven't
         | actually built any net-value-generating product after several
         | years. Clearly the investors with serious money have no problem
         | with offering huge amounts of it in the hopes of funding the
         | next potential moonshot among the 99 other failures. Would the
         | kind of capex necessary to buy and manage enough infrastructure
         | for most of these businesses to find their market and start
         | scaling rapidly even move the needle at this point?
        
       | twarge wrote:
       | Can most offices get a sufficiently fast link to properly utilize
       | servers on premises?
        
         | nske wrote:
         | - Most businesses don't provide Internet Services to customers,
         | so they wouldn't need fast (internet) links and servers for
         | this
         | 
         | - However their own employees are typically consumers of
         | services, that can be hosted either on the cloud, or on
         | premises (which turns the argument on its head)
         | 
         | - Even for businesses that do offer services to customers over
         | the internet, the alternative to the cloud doesn't have to be
         | servers on their premises for this. They can be bare metal
         | servers, either collocated or leased on datacenters. This is
         | just fine when their services don't anticipate explosive
         | growth. It doesn't even mean they have to sacrifice fancy
         | "infastructure-as-code" tooling, though it does mean that they
         | have to think about scaling in more terms than just cost.
        
           | EricE wrote:
           | Or you can just architect your application as a hybrid that
           | can surge into the cloud as needed. Lots of ways to go about
           | it rather than just chucking everything to the cloud and
           | never thinking about it again.
        
         | WJW wrote:
         | Confusingly, on-premise does not always mean "in the same
         | building". Oftentimes it also refers to dedicated servers in a
         | shared datacenter (aka colocation), or a separate datacenter
         | that only serves a single company if that company is large
         | enough.
        
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