[HN Gopher] It's painful how hellbent Mark Zuckerberg is on conv...
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It's painful how hellbent Mark Zuckerberg is on convincing us that
VR is a thing
Author : shaburn
Score : 37 points
Date : 2022-10-11 20:13 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (techcrunch.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (techcrunch.com)
| russellbeattie wrote:
| In addition to issues like motion sickness and discomfort of
| strapping a headset to your face for extended periods, I feel
| there's a bigger issue with VR: It can only be used somewhere
| where you have complete trust in your environment. Somewhere
| where you wouldn't mind _going to sleep_. When you 're "in" VR,
| you're vulnerable to anyone and anything around you.
|
| This means most public places are just not going to work. Even in
| your own home, you might be unwilling to disengage so completely
| if you have a mischievous sibling, an animal who might get
| underfoot or delicate/dangerous items near you that could be hit
| by a wayward swing of the arm. In general, you are completely
| reliant on others around you to warn you of danger - from
| wandering too close to walls or furniture, to watching out for
| others who might want to take advantage of your vulnerability.
|
| Offices might work, but not open plan. Classrooms are a non-
| starter. Airplane seats would be good (if not great), but not
| public transport like a subway or a city bus, even if you
| disregard the nausea issue. Even sitting in a high-end cafe or a
| public library, you'd need to have someone actively looking out
| for you. Again, would you be comfortable laying down for a nap in
| the middle of a park? If not, then using VR there isn't going to
| work.
|
| This is an unavoidable issue that can only be slightly mitigated
| with automated detection systems. There are inherent limits to a
| technical solution like that: Someone staring at you intently
| from a short distance away to gauge how they could best run up
| and grab your bag isn't something a proximity warning system
| would be able to counter. Already just concentrating on portable
| video games in public (phone, Switch, etc.) is such a distraction
| that you have to be wary of your surroundings - the idea of
| adding in complete sensory deprivation to it as well is farcical.
|
| VR simply isn't the next smartphone in terms of technology. It
| will forever be a niche used at home, alone. That isn't to say
| this is a small market - the entire video game industry has a
| similar use case - but Zuckerberg has his hopes set on a
| revolution akin to the iPhone and it just isn't going to happen.
|
| AR is a much more realistic opportunity. If Zuck was as smart as
| he thinks he is, he'd pivot and focus there. But I don't think it
| will happen until Apple launches their solution (whatever it may
| be), and by then it may be way too late.
| johnnymorgan wrote:
| Always been my thinking on the logistical side of the equation.
|
| You need everyone to have VR gear at a ubiquitous level similar
| to monitors and I just don't see that happening.
|
| AR is a much easier sell with a much lower cost to entry
| ralusek wrote:
| I'm honestly sick of these posts. VR _is_ a thing. It 's a really
| cool thing, and it _is_ totally underappreciated for what it is.
|
| A single company controlling the metaverse is what's stupid.
| vlark wrote:
| Remember when Second Life was the next big thing? Pepperidge
| Farms remembers.
| lampshades wrote:
| Pepperidge Farms might want to have their memory checked if
| they're comparing this to Second Life. A company just pivoted
| their entire multi-hundred billion dollar business to do this
| and improve on this.
|
| Sure, you can joke around that early stages look like Second
| Life, but it's a really lazy way to look at it with absolutely
| no consideration for what the future holds.
| metadat wrote:
| Second Life is actually better in every way (more engaging
| and fun) than anything we've seen come out of the Metapharce
| to date.
|
| FB was never a games company. Games are challenging in a
| distinctly different way compared to the $FB specialty-
| Platform Scale engineering. Even with Carmack helping them
| they're still not doing a convincing job of pulling it off to
| transform themselves into .. whatever they're trying to
| become. I couldn't even say, perhaps they want to bevome like
| MS Xbox or Slony PS5?
| johnnymorgan wrote:
| That doesn't mean the product/market fit can still fall
| short.
|
| I've just never been convinced that VR, at the hardware
| distribution level, will hit a high enough saturation point
| to become ubiquitous.
|
| AR I still feel will have a better chance at wide scale
| adoption, however its just my own assesment of the market now
| and that could change quickly if something hits that is
| sticky enough to get the user adoption to snowball.
| michaelcampbell wrote:
| Zuck is hellbent on convincing us that whatever he believes, is
| correct. And mostly what he believes is whatever can make him
| money.
| Bellend wrote:
| Reminds me of Elon Musk. I think it's a new category where a
| handful of people announce vapourware and billions flood in to
| back it with money but none of it exists in reality.
| 0x445442 wrote:
| I don't know, reducing Trans-Atlantic network latency and
| bringing high speed internet to millions in currently un-
| served areas around the world while at the same time giving
| me an alternative to Cox seems worth while. Oh and being able
| to tweet that I think the benefit/cost ratio of mRNA vaccines
| is less than one for most people will be kind of cool as
| well.
| atoav wrote:
| VR could simultaneously be the freshest thing since sliced bread
| _and_ Meta could do the most masterful job at baking, slicing
| _and_ packaging it - I would still not use it.
|
| Why not? Simple: I don't trust Meta. And what I mean by that is,
| that I do _actively_ distrust them in the sense of: if they made
| it, it must be bad for me and I should not use it. It is a little
| bit like if Malboro tried to sell you vitamin pills all of the
| sudden. Maybe they are good genuine vitamin pills, who knows, but
| I would not be the person to try that out. And even if there was
| conclusive proof they were good genuine vitamin pills, I would
| like to give my money to someone else.
|
| Facebook would be a decent product in the hands of people who
| knew how to wield it and how to earn (and keep) a users trust.
| Similar any VR they develop could be technologically really a
| masterpiece, it would howver still be a masterpiece _managed by
| Meta_.
| bergenty wrote:
| Just use a fake username. What's so hard about that?
| throwaway384629 wrote:
| Wait till your profile gets temporarily blocked somehow and
| then they ask for a photo of driving license or passport to
| unblock it.
| c7b wrote:
| You'd be surprised how hard it is to not be tracked by
| FB/Meta (and a bunch of other organisations), even if you
| don't sign up at all.
| kwyjibo_hunter wrote:
| That still contributes to the bad thing existing.
| atoav wrote:
| You really think a username obsfuscates your behaviour at 60
| frames per second?
| parker_mountain wrote:
| Do you really think you could use a tool that is, by its own
| admission, expressly designed for collaborative experiences
| without giving up your implicit identity?
|
| The answer, by the way, is no. Facebook has had highly-
| accurate "shadow profiles" for people who do not use their
| service for over a decade.
|
| Having a basic interaction graph, geo-location data, and
| being in the income band able to afford a $1500 headset
| begins to narrow down people a lot faster than you think. Not
| to mention the headset is technically capable of gathering
| skin tone (easily mapped by the hand recognition), IP
| address, height, and even performing facial recognition.
|
| Using a fake username achieves nothing. Unless you use it for
| sideloaded, offline, single player games and nothing else -
| at which point, the pro headset doesn't really make sense.
| sneak wrote:
| And a payment card (which you can't get without strong
| identity in the USA)?
|
| What about phone number and IP?
|
| Your friends list also probably uniquely links the account to
| your shadow profile which has your real name and address
| bought from data brokers.
|
| Don't forget that Facebook has your name/phone number from
| all of your friends' phones who gave FB/WhatsApp contacts
| permission. Friend enough of them and they'll know it's you.
|
| Also, they have the plaintext of all of your chats with your
| friends, including that initial "hey it's me bob" intro
| message.
| floatinglotus wrote:
| It's cute that you think that would hide your identity.
| mrhands556 wrote:
| I'm amazed at the level of distrust and fud from meta when the
| other side of the coin, google, is much more invasive and
| people generally enjoy opting into the google ecosystem.
|
| Gmail is reading all of your emails, google maps knows
| everywhere you've been and are probably going to go to, etc
| alexyz12 wrote:
| Maybe to us but to the next generation no. And that's who's gonna
| use it.
| lampshades wrote:
| A bunch of old people deriding VR while kids love it? Probably
| safe to ignore the old people at this point (yes, you, 30 year
| olds).
|
| I ask every kid that comes over to baby sit for me the same
| thing: 1. What do kinda think of VR and do you want to try this
| headset? 2. What do kids think of cryptocurrencies and NFTs?
|
| I don't have a lot of data points, but VR excites kids, they
| know what NFTs are, and they are ambivalent about
| cryptocurrency.
| the-printer wrote:
| Not sure why this is downvoted.
|
| The kids of today were implicitly groomed for virtual reality
| by way of 1.5+ years of Zoom-based educations, where they
| were already communicating as talking torsos displayed on a
| screen.
|
| This is the same generation who is also being subconsciously
| prepared for greater state-sanctioned surveillance by way of
| their parents affixing AirTags to themselves and their
| belongings.
|
| It's not about what you catch in the wash...but what you
| catch in the rinse.
| ethanbond wrote:
| VR has excited kids for the last, what, 60 years? The reason
| adults are jaded by it is not because adults are lame but
| because VR continues to be lame _despite_ all the decades-
| long optimism around it.
| rapind wrote:
| Can confirm. VR has already been exciting twice in my
| lifetime and it ended up sucking both times. I'm still
| hopeful though (but not for meta).
| c7b wrote:
| Product category X being successful is not the same as
| company Y being successful at X, though. You've only made a
| case for the former so far.
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(page generated 2022-10-11 23:01 UTC)