[HN Gopher] Many scientists see fusion as the future of energy -...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Many scientists see fusion as the future of energy - and they're
       betting big
        
       Author : hhs
       Score  : 100 points
       Date   : 2022-10-05 16:32 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nationalgeographic.co.uk)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nationalgeographic.co.uk)
        
       | dj_gitmo wrote:
       | In the third image you can see it's built with Python.
       | 
       | See "The tokamak hall at Culham"
        
       | GOONIMMUNE wrote:
       | I love to follow this field because the engineers working on
       | tokamaks/stellarators/other fusion devices are dealing with some
       | truly extreme technical challenges. However, creating devices
       | that economically overcome those challenges at scale seems
       | unlikely when solar panels and batteries are aggressively
       | decreasing in cost. How will these compete if scientists figure
       | out the longevity problem for perovskite solar? Just my opinion
       | as a layman. I still think the research is worthwhile because of
       | possible future applications (space?)
        
         | wefarrell wrote:
         | There's only so much surface area on the earth that we can
         | cover with solar panels and global energy consumption is
         | exponential. Abundant energy will enable more possibilities
         | such as removing CO2 from the atmosphere, desalinating water
         | and pumping it into arid regions, and opening up space tourism
         | for the majority of the worlds' population.
        
           | jacknews wrote:
           | If energy consumption continues exponentially we will cook
           | ourselves.
           | 
           | There's plenty of land for solar, and then there are the
           | oceans, and it's here now. In the medium term we should look
           | at modular fission, and deep geothermal, potentially re-
           | deploying fossil extraction technology.
           | 
           | I'm all for fusion as scientific research, but let's drop the
           | pretense that using it to generate power is remotely
           | realistic for many decades, if ever.
        
           | scythe wrote:
           | >global energy consumption is exponential.
           | 
           | From the link:
           | 
           | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-
           | substitutio...
           | 
           | The trend since 1960 appears instead _linear_. Also,
           | population growth is slowing. But it 's fun to extrapolate
           | "exponential" trends and look at the big numbers.
        
           | IshKebab wrote:
           | We are many orders of magnitude away from needing to worry
           | about solar using up precious land.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | False.
           | 
           | There is exactly zero need to devote _any_ land surface at
           | all exclusively to the solar panels that will provide for all
           | our needs. Solar coexists nicely with numerous other uses.
           | Similarly, for wind turbines.
           | 
           | Storage may consume some area, but nowhere near what existing
           | fossil fuel extraction activities do.
           | 
           | There will be no fusion.
        
             | the_third_wave wrote:
             | Either you have not seen solar parks taking up arable land
             | or you do not understand how this type of land use makes
             | the land unavailable to agriculture. This may not be an
             | issue when those solar parks are built in a desert but it
             | does when they're displacing good farm land like they're
             | doing in e.g. the Netherlands. There are experiments with
             | less dense solar parks and those with vertically placed
             | bifacial panels which should allow combined land use but
             | this has not gotten beyond the experimental stage yet.
             | 
             | Of course it is possible to forego on using arable land for
             | solar parks, only using rooftops and similar constructions
             | for this purpose. Roofs - especially large flat ones like
             | used in industry - are natural locations for PV panels and
             | it is hard to see why one would _not_ install them on new
             | constructions, either on top of traditional roof cladding
             | or in place of it. The same goes for large south-facing
             | walls.
             | 
             | Wind turbines can be placed on farm land without unduly
             | reducing land availability to farming, here the problem
             | comes from nearby population complaining about noise
             | pollution (infrasound, [1]) coming from those turbines as
             | well as 'horizon pollution' [2].
             | 
             | [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97107-8
             | 
             | [2] https://worldcrunch.com/culture-society/skyscrapers-
             | turbines...
        
             | mmazing wrote:
             | > There will be no fusion.
             | 
             | Scream it into the ether with veins popping out of your
             | head all you want, it doesn't make you correct.
             | 
             | Additionally, there's literally no reason to not pursue
             | both avenues.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Nobody is screaming.
               | 
               | Even presuming usable structural materials can be
               | discovered (not worked on in 3 decades) and tritium at
               | PPB concentration can be extracted from thousands of tons
               | of blanket material every day (never worked on at all), a
               | working plant would cost more than an order of magnitude
               | more on every axis than fission.
               | 
               | But fission is already not competitive. Fission falls
               | farther behind better methods each day.
               | 
               | So, no one will build a fusion power plant, and there
               | will be no fusion power. "Pursuing avenues" with no
               | possibility of desirable results is wasted effort and
               | wasted money. We have valid reasons to avoid waste.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | If no one is building fusion power plant, what money or
               | effort is being wasted? Also, do you think all of these
               | nuclear physicists are able to pivot to working on
               | renewable energy, as if they are Silicon Valley tech
               | startups? From what point of view of action are you even
               | operating from?
        
               | mmazing wrote:
               | I wonder how many people said the same thing about
               | airplanes, or electricity, or any of the countless other
               | amazing things we have accomplished as a species.
               | 
               | Maybe the current trajectory of fusion is unlikely to
               | bear fruit, but we'll learn from it. We may learn
               | something that makes it far easier to implement. A
               | discovery here or there and you change trajectory to
               | something that IS worthwhile.
               | 
               | If you never try, you never get there, you can't see
               | that?
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | Even if solar and wind can easily supply all our power needs
         | for the foreseeable future and beyond, it would still be worth
         | experimenting with fusion.
         | 
         | If we can get it to work, we will know much more about the
         | universe than we do now, and if we can get it affordable, we
         | will have nearly unlimited power. muahahahahaHAAHAHAHAHHA
         | 
         | er, oops
        
           | Analog24 wrote:
           | From my understanding this is almost entirely an engineering
           | problem at this point. The physics behind it has been
           | understood for decades so I'm not sure how much more we'll
           | gain in terms of fundamental physics.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Why exactly do you think fusion offers "nearly unlimited"
           | power? In any design conceived today, it is in no way
           | impressive in terms of power/plant, and fusion power plants
           | will be the most expensive power plants ever designed (since
           | they are at the extreme limits of materials science and
           | several other branches of engineering).
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Exactly - IF we can get it to work, we'll know much more.
             | 
             | And IF we can do it affordably (these are both big IFs),
             | the amount of energy available is huge. I see 1 gallon of
             | water to 300 gallons of gas numbers thrown about; that's
             | huge.
             | 
             | https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainsdeuterium-
             | tritium...
             | 
             | (Gotta love their optimism - "when").
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Perovskite longevity is up to five years, which at the price is
         | already sufficient to be immediately useful in many places.
         | 
         | There will be no fusion.
        
       | rapsey wrote:
       | We are much more likely to solve the large scale battery problem
       | than the fusion problem in some reasonable timeframe within our
       | lifetimes.
       | 
       | Once we solve the battery problem solar and wind become enough to
       | power humanity.
        
         | once_inc wrote:
         | Honest question: doesn't the production of battery and
         | photovoltaic cells require quite an investment of rare elements
         | and significant carbon emission?
        
           | rapsey wrote:
           | They last 20 years though. The investment pays off over a
           | long period.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | ngvrnd wrote:
             | not just a cost question but a resource
             | availability/energetic cost of resource extraction
             | question.
             | 
             | If it takes more and more fossil fuel use to extract the
             | increasingly rare components of the renewables, then
             | renewables may not be able to save us.
             | 
             | I don't know if it is true, but it is a legitimate question
             | which is worth knowing the answer to...
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There are no "increasingly rare components".
               | 
               | So, no, it is not any sort of legitimate question. It is,
               | rather, concern trolling.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > significant carbon emission
           | 
           | What is significant?
           | 
           | Photovoltaic panels take around 1/30 of the energy they
           | provide to build (that number is constantly going down). So
           | if you replace all of our energy production in one go, it
           | will take about 1 year of pollution to create them.
           | 
           | What is obviously a crazy idea that will never happen in
           | practice. On the real world, the panels are produced more
           | slowly, and are replacing the most polluting energy sources
           | first.
           | 
           | (Batteries, by their turn, do not need as much energy to
           | create.)
        
             | nobodyandproud wrote:
             | I imagine OP means the mining and production of batteries
             | at grid and transportation scale will require an enormous
             | amount of energy expenditure and resources.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Most storage will not be batteries. Most energy expended
               | building storage will be from renewables.
        
               | nobodyandproud wrote:
               | There can be a saturation a point where that becomes
               | true, but I can't see how that's possible upfront.
               | 
               | Virtually all of the national and global manufacturing
               | and logistics is fossil fuel driven.
               | 
               | I'm not saying it shouldn't be done but unchecked and
               | without care our industries will take shortcuts and warp
               | good intentions (like ethanol).
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Most storage will be built _after_ there is renewable
               | capacity to charge it from, therefore available to build
               | it with.
        
               | nobodyandproud wrote:
               | I can see it if it's purely domestic end-to-end.
               | 
               | But at least in the US, we have a bad habit of
               | outsourcing our problems away: Out sight out of mind.
               | 
               | If there's any significant portion of the build out
               | that's non-domestic, then I have reservations.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | No and no. Solar panels use a little bit of silver and more
           | copper, and no rarer materials.
           | 
           | There are numerous battery chemistries. _None_ competing for
           | utility-scale use involve any rare materials or substantial
           | carbon emission. Likely chemistries include iron /air,
           | zinc/bromine, and manganese/calcium.
           | 
           | And the _overwhelming majority_ of utility storage built will
           | not be  "batteries" at all. Compressed air, liquified air,
           | synthetic ammonia, electrolysed hydrogen, pumped hydro, and
           | buoyancy will probably all be used in various places. Just
           | now, almost all is pumped hydro.
           | 
           | Most future storage will be constructed after the majority of
           | energy produced is from renewable sources.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | There is no "large scale battery problem".
         | 
         | Energy storage is a simple matter of civil engineering: a big
         | job to construct enough, but requiring no new technology.
         | 
         | We are not building it now because it would be stupid to build
         | storage there is no renewable capacity to charge up from. Money
         | is overwhelmingly better spent today on renewable generating
         | capacity.
         | 
         | By the time we need to build storage, it will be much cheaper
         | than if built today.
        
           | rapsey wrote:
           | Large scale storage is not cost effective with current tech.
           | It is not just a civic engineering problem.
           | 
           | Solar power is very cheap, but a complete 24/7 solution
           | requires batteries. Those are much more expensive than the
           | panels. A better battery is all we need. Panels are good
           | enough already.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | The overwhelming majority of storage used will not be
             | batteries, unless some new chemistry's cost is very low.
             | 
             | Large-scale storage will be very cheap, on par with panels.
             | It really is just civil engineering. Any competent civil
             | engineer can sketch a practical, cheap storage system using
             | only century-old tech.
             | 
             | Hand-wringing over utility-scale storage amounts to concern
             | trolling.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Raydovsky wrote:
               | What kind of tech would be used for storage?
        
               | danans wrote:
               | For medium duration storage (days to weeks):
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed-
               | air_energy_storage
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal%E2%80%93air_electroch
               | emi...
               | 
               | For long duration storage: hydrogen, ammonia.
        
               | kentm wrote:
               | In addition to pumped hydro, you can use flywheels or
               | even lifting heavy weights really high up.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Probably neither of those will find substantial use.
        
               | coltonv wrote:
               | Not the OP but dams and resevoirs is what he is talking
               | about, I assume. Pump water uphill while the sun is out,
               | let it feed back downhill and generate power overnight.
               | It is century old stuff and it is very much validated to
               | work.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There are numerous practical methods.
        
               | throwaway821909 wrote:
               | Not the person you're replying to but pumped hydro is the
               | most primitive I know of.
               | 
               | Also: why must the highly variable renewables share the
               | grid with highly variable demand, use them to make
               | hydrogen (only when the sun is shining/wind is blowing),
               | feed that into a totally separate power plant, simple to
               | manage - if renewables really get cheap who cares if it's
               | inefficient.
        
       | metadat wrote:
       | Did this page hijack anyone else's back button? Weird.
        
         | once_inc wrote:
         | Not for me, no.
        
       | fuddle wrote:
       | There is an old joke that physicists like to wheel out every now
       | and then. It goes like this: fusion power is just 20 years away
       | and it always will be.
        
       | breck wrote:
       | Can someone explain to me the 2nd order effects if we made energy
       | 10x cheaper? Do we ever have to worry about waste heat? I'm not
       | an EE or physicist (maybe in retirement).
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Fusion will absolutely not be "10x cheaper", in any possible
         | circumstance. Rather, it would necessarily be at least 10x as
         | costly as fission; and fission is not now competitive, and gets
         | less competitive all the time.
         | 
         | Solar and wind cost are still falling sharply, so you may well
         | find power substantially cheaper in the future. There won't be
         | any fusion plants at all, because no one will put up money to
         | build any.
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | There will be a fusion plant in space, because to build an
           | interstellar vessel you need a source of power that is not
           | dependent upon wind (which is absent in space), nor solar
           | (which decreases in power the further you are away from
           | stars).
        
             | denton-scratch wrote:
             | Unstated premise: there will be an interstellar vessel.
             | 
             | Unstated premise: you can't use a fission plant.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | By the time a proper interstellar vessel is to be
               | designed, we will no longer be dependent upon the hoary
               | '50s plans of Project Orion.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | Energy is about to become 10x cheaper, thanks to the rapidly
         | advancing state of PV, wind turbines, and batteries. There is
         | no problem of waste heat with these.
         | 
         | Some obvious things: carbon capture and storage, synthesis of
         | plastics from air-captured carbon, large-scale desalination.
         | 
         | We'll know at least some other new applications in 2070 - 2090.
         | One possibility is direct synthesis of carbohydrates and amino
         | acids from the air.
        
         | llsf wrote:
         | I am also interested by this question. Energy => machine/labor
         | => GDP So, my first naive take would be that we could
         | extract/build/ship more for less, and then potentially keeps
         | the "growing" economy humming.
         | 
         | Maybe due to my past education/experience, I still feel
         | uncomfortable about more waste (if energy is cheap, why not
         | like in Quatar build stadiums with AC ? keep AC stores doors
         | open in summer, and in winter when the heat is on, etc.)
         | 
         | I have a sense that increasing energy waste will come to 2nd
         | order cost on other resources (water, minerals, etc.). Thoughts
         | ?
        
         | pstrateman wrote:
         | At least for a while fusion isn't about being cheaper.
         | 
         | It's about being abundant.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | There is no world where fusion would be more abundant without
           | being cheaper. Sure, it's nice that you only need water to
           | get half the fuel of a fusion power plant, but even for
           | fission, uranium is a fraction of the cost. The reason
           | fission isn't already providing us with abundant power is the
           | huge cost of the extremely advanced fission reactors - which
           | look like lego blocks compared to a fusion reactor.
           | 
           | And 1 fusion reactor will generate nowhere near the power of
           | the largest fission reactors we already have, in any design
           | considered realistic today.
           | 
           | Not to mention, the extraordinarily expensive fusion reactor
           | you build will become too brittle to hold itself up in the
           | span of 10 years at best, because of the neutron bombardment
           | - turning your massive investment mostly into highly
           | radioactive waste that you'll need expensive robots to
           | disassemble and replace.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | On the bright side, it would be low-level waste in a
             | century.
             | 
             | If you built it underground to begin with, you wouldn't
             | need to bury it.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Neither one.
        
         | zdragnar wrote:
         | Resistive heating for homes in cold climates becomes
         | economical, so many can more easily move off of natural gas /
         | propane in northern climates.
         | 
         | Battery advancements and supply logistics become the only
         | holdup to clean transportation (right now, there isn't
         | sufficient renewable generation or storage to completely
         | replace fossil electricity).
         | 
         | Atmospheric CO2 scrubbing becomes more economical, so waste
         | heat is not an issue I suspect.
         | 
         | Completely moving off of fossil fuels makes petroleum
         | extraction much more expensive, as the primary products are not
         | used as much, so anything currently relying on petroleum
         | (plastics, makeup, asphalt, etc etc) becomes more expensive
         | until renewable synthetic production becomes mainstream.
        
         | mpweiher wrote:
         | "However, the long-term (hundred years) global warming by
         | CO2-caused radiative forcing is about twenty-five times
         | stronger than the immediate effects, being responsible for
         | around 92% of the heat-up caused by electricity production."
         | 
         | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605...
        
           | a3w wrote:
           | This seems to be in the ballpark, although the podcast
           | "methodisch inkorrect" cited (years ago and in german) a
           | perhaps too ideal number of 99%.
           | 
           | Lets agree on a factor of 20 between burning fossils and
           | using fission as an energy source for a further guesstimate.
           | 
           | Solar and wind are better than that, since they have primary
           | energy requirements for production, but no warmth is
           | generated: the albedo of solar panels is as good as grass,
           | the warmth generated by a wind turbines would be generated by
           | the wind slowing down on a tree, house or mountain as well.
           | 
           | As which is cheapest, that could vary between those three
           | technologies. None are regulated as fast as gas turbines, but
           | fission power output is perhaps faster to scale than fusion
           | or even coal.
           | 
           | Having energy at one tenth the cost (solar/wind is supposedly
           | already half to on fifth to cost of fusion) we could feasibly
           | consume ten times the energy by replacing fossils, traveling
           | more, consuming more and giving 80 % of mankind the final
           | lift to 90s-level western accommodations.
           | 
           | So perhaps no net change at all in the ecological balance of
           | heating our space ship if we really switch to fission and
           | keep the our mind set on growth by more technology.
        
         | rgbrenner wrote:
         | It will never be 10x cheaper, at least not to you. Half of the
         | cost of electricity is from distribution costs. So even if it
         | was completely free to generate electricity, it would only
         | reduce your bill by half.
        
           | m0llusk wrote:
           | Extensive deployment of renewables is already changing the
           | grid substantially. Smaller grids with more local sources may
           | be cheaper than the large generator and grid model that has
           | so far dominated.
        
           | throwaway821909 wrote:
           | Of course greed ruins everything but part of the distibution
           | cost is paying for energy (to make equipment, transport it
           | around, feed the people involved, etc.)
        
       | tuatoru wrote:
       | It's 1972, the microprocessor has been invented, and these guys
       | are saying "what the world needs is much bigger mainframes. Much,
       | much bigger."
       | 
       | You owe it to yourself to read the paper by Way, Ives, Mealy and
       | Farmer in _Joule_ , "Empirically grounded technology forecasts
       | and the energy transition". Or at least look at the pictures.
       | 
       | 1. https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X
        
       | vlovich123 wrote:
       | Commercial profitable nuclear fusion is a maybe by the end of the
       | century. We really need to get nuclear fission capacity built out
       | ASAP if we're serious about global warming and the overall health
       | of the planet. Renewables just won't get us there.
       | 
       | Moreover, we need to overbuild the amount of clean energy
       | produced to the point where we can waste it on energy inefficient
       | processes for carbon recapture that we know work. Fusion is
       | important in terms of helping this to continue to scale / make it
       | even more economical / reduce nuclear waste and weapons concerns.
       | Ultimately though, it's an iterative step over fission for the
       | problems the most urgent ecological problems the world is facing.
       | 
       | EDIT: Did some back of the envelope math. Nuclear energy is worst
       | case ~ $200 USD / MWh. At 2,400 kWh/tCO2 for direct air capture,
       | that's $14 trillion USD or ~16% of the world's GDP that would
       | instantly get us to net 0 yearly emissions. We'd need to invest
       | more than that to start reducing carbon levels. This wouldn't
       | recover things since damage is already done in many places (e.g.
       | coral reef deaths) but it would arrest the worsening of issues.
       | Additionally, this has knock on effects that improves the economy
       | overall (weaker storms = less money recovering from disasters).
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | Do you have any concept of how far away the end of the century
         | is? That's 80 years. Think back to 1942.
         | 
         | It's ridiculously arrogant to make predictions like this.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | The most optimistic estimates by the commercial companies
           | working in this space is the first commercial reactors coming
           | online around ~2050. It takes time to build these reactors
           | and integrate them into the existing power systems. I may
           | have misstated my position which is that I don't think fusion
           | will make up any meaningful part of power by the end of the
           | century. The reason is a) requires fundamental engineering
           | and materials breakthroughs b) funding for it is a pitiful
           | amount compared to what it probably needs c) it's competing
           | with other cheaper energy sources d) we don't have any net
           | positive energy reactors yet.
           | 
           | The basis of that prediction is just looking at how long it
           | took fission to take off and there it was being driven by
           | military needs (submarines) and not civilian.
        
             | denton-scratch wrote:
             | > and there it was being driven by military needs
             | (submarines) and not civilian.
             | 
             | I'm surprised that support for fusion isn't part of US DoD
             | policy; abundant, cheap, clean energy would be a huge
             | military asset. Those explosives zooming back and forth in
             | Ukraine are really just energy balls.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Fusion would in no possible world be cheap. Whatever else
               | they would be, fusion reactors will be the most expensive
               | structures per unit of volume built by man.
        
               | denton-scratch wrote:
               | Well, I guess I was talking about running costs.
               | 
               | Pardon me if I'm talking out of my ass, but this is what
               | I tought:
               | 
               | * The main input to a fusion reactor is electrical power.
               | 
               | * The main output of a fusion reactor is even more power.
               | 
               | So that seems to me to mean that once you've incurred the
               | capital cost, the machine produces free energy. My
               | reasoning sounds naive and simplistic, because I don't
               | know what I'm talking about. But what's wrong with my
               | reasoning?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The necessarily super-expensive fusion would be a strict
               | liability. It will, in consequence, not be built. All
               | work toward that is pure waste.
               | 
               | The DoD _does_ spend a great deal of our tax money on
               | fusion, but not for  "abundant cheap clean energy". It
               | is, rather, for uses like what is occurring in Ukraine:
               | death and destruction; and for vaporizing cities and
               | ports, distributing radioactive fallout over wide areas.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | in 1942 there were no nuclear (fission) power plants, yet
           | today there is probably one within driving distance of your
           | house.
           | 
           | additionally there are natural fission nuclear reactors that
           | have been going for possibly billions of years... and one big
           | fusion one within visual range :)
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | There are no natural fission reactors operating on Earth,
             | and have not been any for billions of years.
        
           | coldtea wrote:
           | You could say it for 800 A.D. or 1200 A.D. too, and yet 880
           | A.D or 1280 A.D. wouldn't look too different. In fact, you
           | could say it for 300 B.C. and 1300 A.D. - a whole millenium
           | away - would still be quite similar technologically.
           | 
           | Not all periods have 1942-2022 amount of innovation. In fact
           | 1942-2022 is itself bimodal and front-loaded. By 1980 already
           | most major innovation had already happened. The rest is
           | mostly efficiency improvements and diminishing returns, but
           | much much much less major inventions.
        
         | brightball wrote:
         | I'm curious about facilities like the one in NJ that produce
         | power by burning trash. I wonder how viable they would be on a
         | larger scale.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | ramesh31 wrote:
           | > I'm curious about facilities like the one in NJ that
           | produce power by burning trash. I wonder how viable they
           | would be on a larger scale.
           | 
           | Incinerating already sequestered carbon via burning
           | hydrocarbons is a path to nowhere. It's a profitable business
           | for sure, but so is mining coal.
        
         | bulbosaur123 wrote:
         | >Commercial profitable nuclear fusion is a maybe by the end of
         | the century.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD8EdXuU9Ms
         | 
         | 10-20 years max. Deep Mind will work on it.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Will you believe Deep Mind when it tells you it cannot work?
        
         | greenthrow wrote:
         | Nuclear takes way, way too long to get online to help with
         | global warming.
         | 
         | Renewables absolutely can and are "getting us there." It's a
         | solved problem.
         | 
         | Fusion is always some long period of time away. It is not close
         | to being a viable source of power, and there are convincing
         | arguments it never will be.
         | 
         | And regardless, why do we need to waste so much money trying to
         | turn into a viable source of power when we have solar and wind
         | now and they are cheaper than any other form of power?
         | 
         | By all means keep researching fusion for scientific reasons,
         | but enough with the empty promises about it being the ultimate
         | power source. And fission can die off as the existing reactors
         | reach the end of their lives. It is too expensive, too
         | environmentally dangerous and totally unnecessary.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | Renewables have yet to demonstrate the ability to replace
           | fossil fuels in any meaningful way. They seem to top out at
           | 10-20% of the energy mix. France achieved net 0 many decades
           | ago because they went all in with nuclear whereas their
           | neighbors that went with renewables haven't gotten anywhere
           | close to that.
           | 
           | The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second
           | best time is now.
        
             | fulafel wrote:
             | Renewables obviously enable us to mostly stop using fossil
             | fuels, fossils have just been too cheap because of unpriced
             | externalities. (replace is the wrong word because some of
             | the fossils use can and should just be stopped and not
             | replaced by other energy)
             | 
             | There isn't anything mysterious we expect to empirically
             | discover through demonstrations approaching 100%, though of
             | course engineering does incrementally improve and progress.
             | 
             | Relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_b
             | y_renewable...
        
             | dieortin wrote:
             | France hasn't achieved net 0, not even close. And there are
             | several countries with more than 20% renewable energy in
             | their grid.
        
               | chamibc wrote:
               | And even those countries in the EU such as Denmark rely
               | on France for electricity imports because no country in
               | the world has any large scale storage solution for
               | renewables.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | It would be stupid to put money into storage before there
               | is excess renewable capacity to charge it from. So,
               | people instead put money into generating capacity.
               | 
               | When we have any use for storage, we will build out
               | storage.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | I agree with the first part but not the second. Up until
               | recently (when a lot of their nuclear went offline) they
               | were one of the lowest emitters in Europe. They were
               | comparable to Sweden and Iceland, which have
               | substantially smaller (and more centralized) populations.
               | I'll agree that thinking nuclear will get us all the way
               | to net zero energy emissions is silly, but let's not
               | undermine the great accomplishments France has made. They
               | have been leagues ahead of the rest of Europe. Even at
               | significantly reduced capacity they are still one of the
               | lowest emitters.
               | 
               | https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FI
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Renewables have long since demonstrated ability to replace
             | fossil fuels, and are being built out at an always
             | increasing rate, already exceeding 20% in many places.
             | 
             | France is importing power.
        
               | chamibc wrote:
               | This is plain wrong. France has been one of the most
               | reliable exporters of electricity in EU for over a decade
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Fra
               | nce...
        
             | laurencerowe wrote:
             | > Renewables have yet to demonstrate the ability to replace
             | fossil fuels in any meaningful way. They seem to top out at
             | 10-20% of the energy mix.
             | 
             | Denmark has reportedly reached 53.3% of electricity
             | consumption with wind and solar.
             | 
             | "The first half of 2022 has been a record-breaking period
             | for green energy production in Denmark. Danish windmills
             | and solar panels produced 10,9 TWh in the first six months
             | of the year - a significant 12% increase from the previous
             | record from 2020. Another all-time high, the fraction of
             | wind and solar power in the total electricity consumption
             | was 53,3%."
             | 
             | https://stateofgreen.com/en/news/green-danish-energy-
             | product...
             | 
             | > France achieved net 0 many decades ago because they went
             | all in with nuclear whereas their neighbors that went with
             | renewables haven't gotten anywhere close to that.
             | 
             | Unfortunately even France no longer seems able to build new
             | nuclear generation capacity at a reasonable cost. While
             | wind, solar, and batteries get ever cheaper, nuclear has
             | gotten more expensive over time.
             | 
             | For what it's worth I used to agree with you that Nuclear
             | seemed the only viable way forward, after reading
             | https://www.withouthotair.com. However much has changed
             | over the past 14 years since it was published.
        
           | orangecat wrote:
           | _Renewables absolutely can and are "getting us there." It's a
           | solved problem._
           | 
           | I hope that's true. So does that mean there's no need for the
           | sweeping societal changes that prominent environmentalists
           | are demanding because we'll be able to maintain our high-
           | energy lifestyles with nearly 100% renewables?
        
           | Raydovsky wrote:
           | Renewables are a solved problem, but storage of energy to
           | combat the unreliability of renewables isn't.
           | 
           | NPP's take about 7 years to build. The latest EPR builds are
           | taking more due to an over complicated design.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Storage is not, in fact, a problem. Numerous methods using
             | century-old tech are cheap and practical, and only need to
             | be built out.
             | 
             | They are not being built out yet because there is not
             | excess renewable generating capacity to charge them from.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | Because of comments below, I want to piggyback here.
         | 
         | Climate is a pretty complicated topic that is often vastly
         | overly simplified. To the point where major mistakes are made.
         | Remember, first (and even second) order approximations are only
         | useful in limited regimes.
         | 
         | If you're in the camp of "net negative, regardless of costs"
         | then it is silly to ignore nuclear. But people seem to confuse
         | this as "nuclear VS renewables." We should ABSOLUTELY build as
         | much renewable energy as possible. The issue is that the
         | world/country/states aren't homogeneous. For example, Southern
         | California and the entire Southwest probably needs little to
         | zero nuclear power. There's more than enough sun and wind year
         | around to exceed demand. But this isn't true everywhere. Where
         | this isn't true (and where there isn't hydro availability)
         | nuclear is a great option and it is silly to discard it as an
         | option. You also can't just transport energy across the country
         | without significant losses and drawbacks (e.g.s energy
         | security, reduced priority).
         | 
         | So I want to make it clear that you can think nuclear is
         | expensive and too slow but still be in this camp. This camp is
         | just believes that you shouldn't remove a zero carbon emitter
         | from the table. Why tie a hand behind your back? You don't have
         | to use that hand, but it may come in handy every once in
         | awhile.
         | 
         | As to carbon capture, again this is a complicated topic. Often
         | it is overly simplified into "plant more trees." But we just
         | can't plant enough trees and the scientific consensus is that
         | this won't get us there. There's also plenty of natural ways to
         | reduce carbon. Land management is broad term usually used. But
         | soil restoration, bogs, and swamps are far less sexy than
         | forests (which when young are actually carbon emitters). DCC
         | still has a long way to go too, but again, why turn away from
         | it? Use every tool at hand. Especially because we have to
         | remember that zero emissions typically means "zero energy
         | emissions" and that doesn't solve the other half of the problem
         | that we have.
         | 
         | I know everyone is passionate about this subject (I am too) but
         | I also encourage everyone to recognize that we have more
         | similarities and differences. We are mostly arguing about the
         | most efficient way to reach the goal, but mind you that if we
         | fight too much others can use this to divide us and make us
         | overall less efficient. Complex problems require complex
         | solutions. Very few people here are experts in climate and if
         | you ever talk to climate scientists they will happily tell you
         | that their expertise is limited to their niche. It is too
         | complex of a problem for a singular person to understand. So
         | let's keep that in mind when we're arguing with one another. It
         | is good to have arguments and discussions, but turning into
         | fights is unproductive and just demonstrates how naive we all
         | are. I'll bastardize a Feynman quote: "I think I can safely say
         | that no one understands Climate Change."
        
           | roelschroeven wrote:
           | > ... forests (which when young are actually carbon
           | emitters).
           | 
           | Can you expand a bit on that, since it doesn't match my
           | understanding? Where does the carbon come from that young
           | forests emit?
           | 
           | My understanding is:
           | 
           | A tree is a carbon sink, i.e. it captures carbon as long as
           | it is growing (the carbon goes into its organic matter). Once
           | it stops growing it has a constant amount of organic matter,
           | a constant amount of carbon, and no net exchange of carbon.
           | That is until it burns, or decomposes, or parts of it are
           | eaten by animals, or whatever.
           | 
           | The same, but on a larger scale, goes for a forest, or any
           | ecosystem really: when total organic matter increases carbon
           | is captured from the atmosphere; when total organic matter
           | decreases carbon is emitted.
           | 
           | Still to my understanding, young forests are forests that
           | grow pretty rapidly and are therefore excellent in capturing
           | carbon.
           | 
           | What am I missing?
        
             | borkt wrote:
             | A whole lot unfortunately, as the life is not a simple
             | topic.
             | 
             | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34542151/#&gid=article-
             | figur...
        
             | renlo wrote:
             | Not OP but planting a man-made forest is bound to require a
             | lot of carbon up front; you'd need to transport people,
             | plants, etc, to the forest-site, and would possibly need
             | prepare the land for planting using machines (which again
             | need to be transported, need logistics to transport fuel,
             | etc)
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | Sure! I'm actually glad you asked, because this is a
             | perfect example of first order thinking giving you the
             | wrong answer. Your understanding is actually (almost)
             | entirely correct! The problem is that a forest is an entire
             | system, and not just the trees. Talk about missing the
             | forest for the trees :)
             | 
             | So a singular tree grows more aggressively when young, but
             | you also have to consider that the tree respires and that
             | it drops matter to the ground which microbes decompose and
             | respire CO2! But the overall system changes once a forests
             | get larger and there is canopy closure. Once we consider
             | the entire system (or at least more of the system) we
             | reverse our conclusion and find that young forests are NET
             | carbon sources (despite individual trees being carbon
             | sinks) and that old growth forests are NET carbon sinks.
             | PBS Terra does a good explanation of it so I'm linking it
             | here[0].
             | 
             | Also, with that said, we should add some information about
             | land management. After all, logging cycles and maintaining
             | old growth forests is part of land management, but it is
             | far from the whole picture. Forrest Fleisch (ironic name)
             | frequently writes about this so I'll just leave one post
             | here[1] and allow you to dig in more.
             | 
             | I hope this clears things up. I'm not an expert so I don't
             | have all the answers myself. But this is what I've gathered
             | from conservationists and those studying forests. And in
             | all fairness, the prevailing theory was that of the first
             | order until relatively recently when we could actually
             | measure the entire system. So old information can be
             | holding us back, but also I think this demonstrates that we
             | as the public understanding can significantly lag that of
             | the scientific consensus. While I agree we should challenge
             | experts this also demonstrates the importance of relying on
             | them.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDdKOmvIKyg
             | 
             | [1] https://mobile.twitter.com/ForrestFleisch1/status/13062
             | 21445...
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | Nuclear is great as baseload, but it is more expensive than
         | wind/solar when you just look at pure generation without
         | storage. So we definitely need to get nuclear built out, but
         | you want as much cheap renewables as you can get the grid to
         | support, and as little expensive nuclear as possible.
         | 
         | And it's not what you would use for CO2 capture. For that you
         | would use renewables, because it doesn't matter what time of
         | the day you do it, or for how long you do it continuously. So
         | just direct excess renewable power into CO2 capture.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | The problem with renewables is one of space and materials
           | rather than energy production. Nuclear is drastically smaller
           | in terms of the land footprint.
           | 
           | Focusing on cost is misleading because the costs are because
           | we haven't invested in fission in many decades / regulations
           | are fairly insane. For example, the cost argument would go
           | the other way in the 90s when wind and solar were much more
           | expensive. Also, solar provide energy when there's typically
           | peak demand so you can't really load shift for DAC. Wind you
           | might be able to do that.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | There is in fact no problem of "footprint" of renewables
             | for nukes to pretend to solve.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | Yesterday I watched a video about the commercially
             | available options for installing an electric power
             | generation plant on the balcony of your rented apartment.
             | Commercially available, now.
             | 
             | More seriously, off-shore wind takes up virtually no land,
             | and on-shore wind and PV can share land use with pasture,
             | feed crops and horticultural crops. PV actually improves
             | crop yields in dry regions because of the shading and
             | reduced stress on the plants. So in some places it has a
             | negative footprint. Storage uses no more land than peaker
             | gas, and probably less when pipeline right-of-ways are
             | counted.
             | 
             | There _really_ is not a land footprint problem.
        
         | reidacdc wrote:
         | I've seen the scenario you describe as the "fission bridge to
         | fusion" scenario, and as I understand it, a major problem is
         | that it can't be done with existing pressurized light-water
         | reactors. These systems just don't use Uranium very
         | efficiently, they extract a small percentage of the energy from
         | the fuel, and then need to be refueled.
         | 
         | This doesn't mean the "fission bridge to fusion" is impossible
         | by any means, but it does mean that significant work needs to
         | be done in developing and commercializing next-generation
         | fission reactors, including breeder reactors, which use much
         | more of the available energy from fuel, and possibly novel
         | reactor designs that can run on reprocessed fuel from LWRs.
         | 
         | A political complication is that large-scale commercial nuclear
         | fuel reprocessing represents a nuclear-weapons proliferation
         | risk, and so might imply regulatory burdens, or require
         | international agreements on use and control before it can go
         | forward.
         | 
         | Refs: Dim recollection from reading Walter C. Patterson's
         | "Nuclear Power", and some discussion about peak Uranium
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium).
        
           | Manuel_D wrote:
           | Reprocessing increases net efficiency considerably [1]. Few
           | people do it since uranium is very cheap relative to the
           | amount of energy extracted from it, even without
           | reprocessing. But if fuel ever becomes constrained,
           | reprocessing would become competitive.
           | 
           | Nuclear weapons proliferation isn't a risk among most
           | countries that have nuclear generation programs. Heck, most
           | of them _already_ have nuclear weapons. The rest can contract
           | out reprocessing to nuclear-armed countries.
           | 
           | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | Also there are "near-breeder" CANDU heavy water moderated
             | reactors: they are a proven technology that exists today
             | and can use non-enriched uranium. They also in theory can
             | use a plutonium/thorium mixture, so can burn thorium.
             | 
             | They are cheaper as far as fuel, but it turns out that fuel
             | didn't become as expensive as anticipated in the 1970s
             | (when it was thought that there would be 1000s of
             | reactors). They are physically larger, so have a higher
             | construction cost that put them at a disadvantage compared
             | to conventional LWRs.
             | 
             | The tritium needed for fusion reactors comes from these
             | CANDU reactors (some of the deuterium from the heavy water
             | is converted to tritium, it is collected).
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | My understanding is that breeder reactors are politically
           | problematic because of proliferation concerns.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | Peak uranium isn't a thing even using today's inefficient
           | reactors.
           | 
           | The key insight is that if you're using fission to power DAC,
           | then you don't even need to worry about proliferation.
           | Countries can continue to use coal and oil while nuclear
           | fission is used for DAC. An international agreement that they
           | pay a tax to the countries that do have the capability to do
           | DAC powered by fission. China and USA make up the vast
           | majority of emissions, make up a good chunk of global GDP and
           | both have nuclear power plant capabilities & they're not the
           | only two countries who have that. Yes, there's an imbalance
           | there to think through but it can be remediated a bit (and
           | mostly it'll be Brazil and India that we would need to worry
           | about assuming we can get China on board). Certainly better
           | than doing nothing for decades or even a century.
        
         | paulcole wrote:
         | > if we're serious about global warming and the overall health
         | of the planet
         | 
         | There's a saying that when someone shows you who they are,
         | believe them.
         | 
         | It's pretty clear that "we" as humanity are not serious about
         | global warming and the overall health of the planet.
         | 
         | Some of us are making gobs of money and think we'll just be
         | able to buy our kids the same great life we've had. Some of us
         | are complacent and don't worry too much about the future. Some
         | of us are so desperate to survive today that we can't think
         | about tomorrow. Some of us realize it's a lost cause.
         | 
         | "Fixing" global warming just isn't going to happen. We spent
         | the money we didn't have over the past few decades and the bill
         | is coming due soon. At this point it's all about how we cope
         | with a world that's going to be unimaginable to many of the
         | people alive today.
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | > "Fixing" global warming just isn't going to happen.
           | 
           | There will be likely last-ditch efforts from desperate
           | governments and technocratic industrialists to do
           | geoengineering, with all of the expense and potential
           | blowback that entails.
        
             | paulcole wrote:
             | Some attempt to darken the skies probably won't happen in
             | my lifetime but I sure wouldn't want to be alive in 200
             | years.
        
       | fguerraz wrote:
       | The real question is no if it's the energy of the future. The
       | real question is it going to be in time to save us?
       | 
       | Even if we knew exactly how to make fusion reactor today, how
       | long would it take for it to effectively replace all the fossil
       | fuel energy? Too long is the answer.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > The real question is it going to be in time to save us?
         | 
         | From what? Global warming? No, it won't.
         | 
         | If somebody creates commercially viable fusion today, it will
         | still take some 3 to 5 decades until it is common enough to
         | impact our energy generation. And if it is based on breeding
         | Tritium, those 3 to 5 decades are dictated by physics. (But
         | just the ramp-up on constructing those power plants is enough
         | of an issue, no fundamental physics needed.)
        
       | cl42 wrote:
       | I personally believe that nuclear fusion is a necessity for long-
       | term survival of humanity -- I'm talking centuries out.
       | 
       | I am not a physicist (humble startup dude / engineer / sales
       | guy). Is there anything someone like me can do to contribute to
       | this space?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | You could contribute most by staying out of the way of people
         | doing _actually useful work_ on things other than fusion. Any
         | work on fusion will contribute exactly nothing to fending off
         | global climate catastrophe.
        
           | short_sells_poo wrote:
           | You do realize that by spamming this entire thread with very
           | strongly worded posts and yet very little supporting
           | evidence, that you are just making people disregard your
           | views?
           | 
           | If you are hoping to educate and convert people to what you
           | consider the correct path forward, your current approach is
           | definitely not the right one.
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | As amusing as it is to see an inverted shtick of the Fusion
           | Energy Foundation that matches the same tenor as that
           | organization, most proponents of solar and wind probably
           | don't see R&D into other methods of power generation as a
           | zero-sum game that detracts from their own favored approach.
           | Not to mention, research into fusion, and indeed any type of
           | nuclear power, is likely overwhelmingly dwarfed by all of the
           | efforts spent into greenhouse gas-generating fossil fuels.
           | Given that, the aforementioned tenor is rather quixotic and
           | misplaced.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Money is fungible. A billion dollars spent chasing fusion
             | is exactly a billion not spent displacing CO2 production.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | Money is not fungible when it's never in the hands of a
               | person or organization who is going to make the binary
               | decision of investing in fusion vs. investing in
               | renewables. You are creating a false dilemma that does
               | not actually exist in real life. Furthermore, if you
               | really cared about advancing the cause of solar and wind,
               | you would take that tenor and energy towards attacking
               | fossil fuels, rather than a completely marginal segment
               | of the power generation pie.
        
         | bobsmooth wrote:
         | Tell people about General Fusion and invest should they ever go
         | public.
        
       | whycombinetor wrote:
       | Are we talking like Nutty Professor levels of big? Should we be
       | concerned about how big the scientists are getting?
        
       | FernandoTN wrote:
       | "Nuclear fusion is 30 years away; and always will be." I wonder
       | how this phrase manages to hold after 50 years since its
       | inception.
       | 
       | We could compare it to the state of general AI, but at least in
       | the machine learning field, progress is being made without
       | knowing the feasibility or path to reaching general in AI. In
       | fusion it appears that the theory has already been set and
       | maintaining the chain reaction going for long enough is the
       | limitation (progress being made here), would it be the same case
       | that the final steps are still missing without a clear path, or
       | would the current progress be enough to eventually reach it?
        
         | jl6 wrote:
         | AI research has made slow scientific progress but great
         | engineering progress. Fusion has made great scientific progress
         | but still has a lot of engineering left to do.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _has made great scientific progress but still has a lot of
           | engineering left to do_
           | 
           | It's made serious engineering progress too.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Engineering work halted 30+ years ago. There has been no
             | recent work on structural materials that could withstand
             | the neutron bombardment, _and_ no work on extracting bred
             | tritium at parts per billion concentration from thousands
             | of tons of  "blanket" material needed for the next day's
             | operation.
             | 
             | There is no possibility of any present scheme operating at
             | even 10x the cost of fission. Fission is not today
             | competitive, and falls further behind each day.
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | You can get around the tritium problem with boron-proton
               | fusion. Also gets around the inefficiency of converting
               | to heat / turbines. Obviously not any closer to
               | production (and probably further) than tritium fusion,
               | though. https://hb11.energy/how-it-works/
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There is no reason to expect that p-11B fusion is
               | possible.
               | 
               | It might be, in a hundred years, if our present
               | understanding is wrong, and somebody figures out how to
               | reflect gamma rays.
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | It's been done by firing lasers at a HB pellet, so I
               | assume you mean not possible to be done commercially? And
               | why would you have to reflect gamma rays?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Obviously you can fuse about anything by accelerating
               | nuclei at each other fast enough. If it takes more energy
               | to do it than you can get back, it is of purely academic
               | interest. Firing lasers comes up many orders of magnitude
               | short.
               | 
               | Another alternative is magnetic confinement, but
               | radiative loss goes up with the 4th power of temperature,
               | so would be 10000 times as much as for a D-T plasma,
               | IIUC.
        
         | Apocryphon wrote:
         | This chart rests upon faulty assumptions about the efficacy of
         | tokamaks, but it does demonstrate how little interest the U.S.
         | federal government has had towards research of fusion.
         | 
         | http://i.imgur.com/sjH5r.jpg
         | 
         | https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/04/11/0435231/mit-fus...
        
         | Trouble_007 wrote:
         | Timeline of Nuclear Fusion :
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_nuclear_fusion
        
       | johnnymorgan wrote:
       | What I want to know is why nobody talks about this..
       | https://brillouinenergy.com/news
       | 
       | > Researchers at SRI International have issued a Technical
       | Progress Report covering their review and independent validation
       | of Brillouin Energy's on-going testing and scaling efforts of its
       | most advanced Isoperibolic ("IPB") Hydrogen Hot Tube(tm)
       | (HHT(tm)) component prototypes, which generate controlled Low
       | Energy Nuclear Reactions ("LENR").
       | 
       | I've been keeping an eye on it since 89 and this seemed
       | significant.
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | It's probably because they appear to be cranks who keep
         | promising results right around the corner and never deliver.
         | 
         | Here's a story from 10 years ago about how Brillouin's
         | technology can generate electricity for 1 cent per kilowatt
         | hour, linked from their official blog at the time [1]:
         | 
         | https://web.archive.org/web/20130515012248/http://pesn.com/2...
         | 
         | If they had an empirically working device, by now they could
         | just be using it generate heat and/or power and leave it up to
         | better-funded institutes to figure out the mechanism after the
         | fact. Since they're not selling the devices and they're not
         | selling power, and they've been "iterating" for years, I don't
         | think that they actually have anything.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://web.archive.org/web/20130421190244/http://brillouine...
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Making empty promises about fusion tech is a good way to
           | collect investors' money with no risk of fraud indictments,
           | and no need ever to pay any back.
           | 
           | Work done under government grants is similar.
        
           | johnnymorgan wrote:
           | Tbh it was only the SRI confirmation that caught my eye.
           | 
           | I've mostly written this off but was curious what the
           | relevance of it was as it did seem to be verified by an
           | independent body. The question of if the tech can actually be
           | used for power generation..no idea but never seemed likely.
        
       | jacknews wrote:
       | "Star machines", "This form of energy ... will be abundant,
       | efficient, carbon-free, safe", and "solve all of humanity's
       | energy problems in one fell swoop - amongst many other things. "
       | 
       | Humbug.
       | 
       | Even if/when it is possible to build a power plant (many decades
       | IMHO) it will be massively costly, the waste from D-T fusion is
       | far more of an issue than is being discussed, the efficiency will
       | be terrible, barely enough to make the thing workable, etc.
       | "Tritium... can be made from another element that is extremely
       | plentiful: lithium."
       | 
       | So we're going to burn all the lithium, instead of building
       | batteries with it?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | There is plenty of lithium, but we won't be burning any except
         | in H-bombs. We may hope not there, either.
         | 
         | If we don't fend off climate disaster, there will be plenty of
         | that soon enough.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | Doesn't really matter, as we can also build batteries with
         | sodium, calcium, aluminum, iron, zinc, and with carbon
         | polymers. And probably more.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | Been hearing a lot of fusion hype lately. Guess it's that time of
       | the decade again..
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | The pigeons need to be gulled again.
        
       | packetlost wrote:
       | The amount of anti nuclear from a few accounts in this thread is
       | weird and reeks of weird concern trolling.
        
         | notacoward wrote:
         | It's mostly from one person, who somehow gets away with (up to)
         | dozens of low-effort comments on every single story about
         | nuclear power. I happen to agree with their basic premise, but
         | still find it highly suspect that such spammy behavior
         | continues to be allowed.
        
           | packetlost wrote:
           | They seem like a concern troll-for-hire type of thing tbh. I
           | find it concerning that they're allowed to continue to be
           | here too
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | In my own case I'm just trying to get people to let go of the
         | idea that nuclear (fission or fusion) is viable for electricity
         | generation.
         | 
         | Please read the paper by Way, Ives, Mealy and Farmer[1], look
         | at the trends, and draw your own conclusions.
         | 
         | Edit: as I said in another comment: It's 1972, the
         | microprocessor has been invented, and these guys are saying
         | "what the world needs is much bigger mainframes. Much, much
         | bigger."
         | 
         | 1. https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | Looks like there's a discussion thread here.
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/RenewableEnergy/comments/xeydwp/emp.
           | ..
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | Thanks for that. The main criticism is that "it looks like
             | a curve fit". Indeed it does; the paper talks at length
             | about this very thing. (Mostly in the 400 page
             | supplementary paper S1.)
             | 
             | But the thing is, the curves (Moore's and Wright's) apply
             | to a lot of technologies undergoing rapid expansion. That's
             | actually the science contribution of the paper: setting out
             | a better way to make policy-relevant forecasts, and
             | hopefully ending the abysmal track record of forecasts that
             | is documented in the paper.
             | 
             | (I can see ways to get at least 67% cost reductions in both
             | wind and PV from where we are now, and I'm just an
             | interested layman. So in at least the near term we will
             | likely keep following the curves. Yes, actual work has to
             | be done, but there's no voodoo. Just like with
             | microprocessors.)
        
       | vladkovalev wrote:
       | Helion energy?
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | Current proposals for nuclear fusion, most notably hydrogen
       | fusion variants (ie deuterium-tritium in particular),
       | increasingly seem like a pipe dream to me. Fusion seems
       | attractive because stars do it but stars also have gravity on
       | their side. We hafve to build lmeter thick concrete walls to
       | protect against errant neutrons (as mentioned in the article) but
       | that doesn't solve the real problem: escaping neutrons are energy
       | lost.
       | 
       | You also can't ignore the fact that those neutrons also destroy
       | the precise equipement designed to contain the reaction.
       | 
       | Add to this, you need to perfectly contain an ultra-high
       | temperature plasma and you run into fairly fundamental issues
       | with fluid dynamics (ie turbulence).
       | 
       | I'm disappointed but not the least bit surprised that the pro-
       | fission HN crowd tries to hijack this thread into a fission
       | energy argument. Is it possible to discuss nuclear fusion without
       | bringing the quite unrelated fission issue into it?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | There is also the problem of extracting grams of tritium every
         | day from a thousand tons of lithium "blanket" so you will have
         | fuel to operate from tomorrow.
         | 
         | But the biggest problem is no one will pay more than 10 cents
         | for what costs you dollars to produce. The fission people hold
         | out hope that people can be forced to pay 50 cents for what
         | they can get for 10 elsewhere.
        
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