[HN Gopher] Svante Paabo awarded Nobel Prize for studies of exti...
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       Svante Paabo awarded Nobel Prize for studies of extinct human
       ancestors
        
       Author : shantanu_sharma
       Score  : 130 points
       Date   : 2022-10-03 09:47 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.quantamagazine.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.quantamagazine.org)
        
       | User23 wrote:
       | Is there enough extant Neanderthal DNA in some Homo Sapiens
       | lineages to restore Homo Neanderthalensis by back crossing?
       | Actually doing so would almost certainly be highly unethical, but
       | I still wonder if it's possible.
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Probably not.
         | 
         | But I think we have pretty complete Neanderthal DNA from
         | fossils, so, with a few more decades of gene engineering, they
         | could probably be created.
         | 
         | Then I guess we'd have to ask them if their creation was
         | ethical :)
        
       | j7ake wrote:
       | Love Paabos work, but spinning the work as giving "huge insights
       | into human physiology" is a bit of a stretch. If the bar were
       | insights in human physiology there would be a lot more people who
       | have done more important work.
        
         | soderfoo wrote:
         | Forgive me, but can you expand a bit on this? I am completely
         | uninformed in this area and like to have a holistic view when
         | endeavoring to learn anything new.
        
       | c7b wrote:
       | wikipedia already updated, quite impressive always:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Svante_P%C3%A4%C3...
        
       | astrange wrote:
       | I read Svante Paabo's autobiography, which is basically a story
       | of him continually getting the scientific equivalent of promoted,
       | and thought it was interesting that he refuses to give his
       | discoveries Latin species names like "Homo denisova" on the basis
       | that they're pretentious. So Denisovans still don't have one.
       | 
       | Also, at one point he steals his labmate's wife, and then later
       | hires them both for his own lab.
       | 
       | It's a good book and his work is very significant - this is a
       | well deserved prize.
        
         | ygram wrote:
         | It is illegal to own people in Sweden, so you can't steal them.
        
           | astrange wrote:
           | Do you know another verb for being the person someone is
           | cheating on their spouse with?
        
             | heavenlyblue wrote:
             | The wife of his labmate got bored of her current partner
             | and instead went for someone less boring?
        
         | mongol wrote:
         | That was interesting. I looked what Wikipedia says
         | 
         | "Denisovans may represent a new species of Homo or archaic
         | subspecies of Homo sapiens (modern humans), but they are known
         | from too few fossils to erect a proper taxon. Proactively
         | proposed species names for Denisovans are H. denisova[2] or H.
         | altaiensis.[3]"
        
       | arcanus wrote:
       | Katalin Kariko was robbed, unless they are giving mRNA vaccines
       | as chemistry.
        
         | dosshell wrote:
         | Why Katalin Kariko and not Robert Malone? [0]
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Malone
        
           | fsh wrote:
           | From your link:
           | 
           | The New York Times, in an article about Malone, reported:
           | "While he was involved in some early research into the
           | technology, his role in its creation was minimal at best, say
           | half a dozen Covid experts and researchers, including three
           | who worked closely with Dr. Malone."
        
           | kken wrote:
           | I know nothing about this, but this passage in the Wiki
           | article that you linked points at some controversy:
           | 
           | >While Malone promotes himself as an inventor of mRNA
           | vaccines,[1][7] credit for the distinction is more often
           | given to the lead authors on the major papers he contributed
           | to (such as Felgner and Wolff), later advances by Katalin
           | Kariko and Drew Weissman,[3][19] or Moderna co-founder
           | Derrick Rossi.[13] Ultimately, mRNA vaccines were the
           | decades-long result of the contributions of hundreds of
           | researchers, including Malone.[3][20] The New York Times, in
           | an article about Malone, reported: "While he was involved in
           | some early research into the technology, his role in its
           | creation was minimal at best, say half a dozen Covid experts
           | and researchers, including three who worked closely with Dr.
           | Malone."[7]
        
           | dosshell wrote:
           | Addon: I do not promote that Malone get Nobel price (just
           | first google hit). What I meant to ask was what Karino did
           | that is special related to all other work in this field.
        
         | ISL wrote:
         | The Nobel Committees sometimes take quite a while to get around
         | to deserving researchers. It is not a rapid-response
         | organization.
         | 
         | The only exception I'm aware of in modern times is the high-Tc
         | superconductor prize in Physics. Results announced in March,
         | prize awarded in October -- it was so obviously important and
         | trivially demonstrated as correct.
        
           | dooglius wrote:
           | LIGO is another example
        
             | ISL wrote:
             | GW150914 was detected in September of 2015 -- the
             | associated prize wasn't awarded until 2017. That award
             | followed the very important detection of GW170817 in August
             | 2017, which featured the critical detection of an optical
             | signature in parallel with the GW signal.
             | 
             | mRNA is definitely in a similar regime today. A promising
             | technology led to vaccines in trials by autumn 2020, and
             | oodles of shots-in-arms by autumn 2021. In 2022, the mRNA
             | technology is on very solid footing for having saved
             | millions of lives. The Committees definitely could award
             | one or more mRNA prizes this year, but they may have other
             | prizes they need to award before a worthy recipient passes
             | away.
        
       | shusaku wrote:
       | Nice! One of those areas of science which I think really capture
       | the public imagination.
        
         | GameOfFrowns wrote:
        
       | diego_moita wrote:
       | If anyone wants to understand the huge impact paleogenomics is
       | having on writing human history a very good book is "Who We Are
       | and How We Got Here" by David Reich.
       | 
       | It describes the seminal work of Dr. Paabos and many others. The
       | main focus are the 3 big migrations of hominids to Europe (early
       | nomadic settlers, farmers from Anatolia and the corded
       | culture/horse riders from South-Central Asia).
       | 
       | The book also discusses the inter-breeding of Neanderthals and
       | Sapiens, Denisovarian and Sapiens, the migrations and
       | castes/class system that shaped the ethnic diversity on the
       | Indian subcontinent and the surprising genetic evidence of
       | colonization of South America by Pacific islanders.
       | 
       | It is mind blowing stuff...
        
         | Gumbercules wrote:
        
         | xorcist wrote:
         | Here, have a UTF8 code point for the next comment: a
         | 
         | You're welcome!
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | I recently started reading that book have been constructing a
         | drinking game based on it. I'd definitely recommend the book so
         | far, but wouldn't necessarily recommend this drinking game:
         | 
         | * Every time a new process is described as being a factor of x
         | times faster/cheaper/better than its predecessor, take log(x)
         | sips of your drink
         | 
         | * Take a sip of your drink for every unique 3-Population Test
         | or a 4-Population test that is described (where uniqueness is
         | defined as the set of populations going into the test).
         | 
         | * Take a shot every time the difference between Population X's
         | DNA and East Asian DNA is used as a unit of measure. Take an
         | additional shot for the quantity if it's more than one, e.g.
         | "The difference between Denisovan and European Hunter Gatherer
         | DNA is twice as large as the difference between Denisovan and
         | modern East Asian DNA." would result in two shots.
         | 
         | * Take a shot every time certain events are described as
         | happening in sequence, but the years also have overlapping
         | error bars
        
         | treis wrote:
         | >"Who We Are and How We Got Here" by David Reich
         | 
         | IMHO, I'd take the conclusions offered here with a grain of
         | salt. It's applying statistical methods to very improbable
         | events (ancient bones surviving with DNA) to determine other
         | very improbable events (evolutionary DNA change). The
         | conclusions at least somewhat rest on the assumption that those
         | two things have relatively consistent probabilities. That could
         | be true but it's probably not and if it's not it's somewhat
         | unclear how that would bias the results that the book draws its
         | conclusions from.
        
           | diego_moita wrote:
           | > other very improbable events (evolutionary DNA change)
           | 
           | Sorry, I don't understand this part.
           | 
           | Are you suggesting that evolution is a "very improbable
           | event"?
           | 
           | Among serious scientists evolution is already settled and
           | beyond dispute.
           | 
           | I don't see any basis for an argument if you're suggesting
           | that.
           | 
           | Denying evolution belongs to religion, not science.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | No, they are referring to the fact that the events that
             | lead to permanent changes in the genome are extremely rare-
             | the vast majority of mutations are not fixed.
        
           | 11101010001100 wrote:
           | > statistical methods to very improbable events
           | 
           | What is the alternative?
        
             | treis wrote:
             | If I had one I'd be clearing a space on my shelf for my
             | Nobel Prize
             | 
             | Seriously though, I don't think there's any way to know for
             | sure. Like imagine if it were dice rolls. You can look at
             | the results and draw conclusions to see if it's a weighted
             | dice. But what if my table biased rolls or if some results
             | were lost? It's probably reasonable to conclude that they
             | weren't but no way that I can see to be sure.
        
               | enviclash wrote:
               | Random walks.
        
         | bhickey wrote:
         | I'm surprised that the prize wasn't awarded jointly with Reich.
        
           | dkural wrote:
           | The Nobel Prize tends to favor initial breakthroughs.
           | Svante's lab sequenced the very first complete Neandertal
           | genome, showing it was possible to reconstruct genomes from
           | ancient DNA, with high-throughput sequencers, and developing
           | the necessary lab protocols and software to put it all
           | together (with his lab). Svante was senior author on the
           | Denisova paper as well. So, I am not surprised. There was no
           | major advance needed for Reich to do his work further
           | elucidating the origin and dispersion of various hominin
           | species and ancient human populations.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | Paabo told me (when he visited to give a talk at my
             | institution) that the first few years of Neandertal
             | sequencing, he was just sequencing his own genome
             | accidentally, since he didn't have truly stringent lab
             | technique. He was out ahead of everybody else for at least
             | 2-3 years at the time, and could demonstrate to people
             | trying to replicate his results that they were just using
             | contaminated samples. Sequencing is absurdly sensitive- it
             | can pick up a real signal from just a few individual
             | molecules.
        
               | bjelkeman-again wrote:
               | Does this mean that inexpensive DNA tests you can buy
               | online are likely to contain contaminated samples? As the
               | person taking the sample at home hardly has stringent lab
               | tech available?
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | No, tests like that work with an abundance of DNA and so
               | contamination is less likely. A DNA test typically works
               | with saliva or blood which contains a ton of DNA> That
               | DNA can then be amplified, which amplifies both the
               | signal and the noise, but the noise is very low and can
               | be trivially ignored after the fact.
               | 
               | With paleogenomics, you're collecting a tiny amount of
               | DNA, mostly degraded, from ancient samples, and so the
               | "noise" (contamination DNA) ends up being close to or
               | more than the signal you get from the sample.
               | 
               | Details here:
               | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3926038/
        
               | jhbadger wrote:
               | The issue with paleo DNA is that the target is much lower
               | in concentration than potential contaminants from the lab
               | worker. etc. This wouldn't be the case in DNA tests where
               | the concentration of the sample would be comparatively
               | high.
        
               | jhbadger wrote:
               | That was a common problem in Paabo's early work. He also
               | "sequenced an Egyptian mummy" that turned out to be
               | himself as well.
        
               | hajimuz wrote:
               | Seriously? Nobody was verifying that end to end?
        
               | searine wrote:
               | As it turns out, paleogenomics takes next level
               | cleanliness, far more than anyone expected, particularly
               | when you're trying to sequence something so close to
               | human DNA.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | Sometimes verifying the little details can get in the way
               | of publication velocity. It's a risk many advanced
               | scientists take because the chance of getting caught
               | (publishing something that is later shown to be obviously
               | false using careful control experiments) is low, and the
               | risk to your career of being second to publish.
        
               | dkural wrote:
               | This reminds me of another story - BGI was sequencing the
               | chicken genome, and for a while, a lot of people who did
               | other sequencing projects kept receiving chicken DNA in
               | their sequencing data files (as contamination).
        
           | carbocation wrote:
           | My feelings exactly. (That aside - delighted that Paabo and
           | his field are getting this recognition.)
        
       | birriel wrote:
       | I've recently begun reading Harari's Sapiens. Does Dr. Paabo's
       | research throw any light unto the interbreeding/replacement
       | debate regarding extinct humans?
        
         | diego_moita wrote:
         | Yes, it does.
         | 
         | The most interesting aspect it brings are numbers. It allows to
         | measure how much of our DNA comes from which group of humans
         | (Neanderthals, Denisovarians, etc). It also shows that the
         | migratory currents had a lot of details that we barely got to
         | understand.
         | 
         | To understand Dr. Paabo's (and others) work, I suggested above
         | "Who We Are and How We Got Here" by David Reich.
         | 
         | Read it. It is easy reading. If you liked Sapiens I guarantee
         | you will like that book too.
        
           | birriel wrote:
           | Thank you for the info, much appreciated!
        
       | Tomte wrote:
       | Leipzig... he's a colleague of McElreath (of Statistical
       | Rethinking).
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       | https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2022/press-releas...
       | 
       | (via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33065326, but we merged
       | that thread hither)
        
       | mhneu wrote:
       | This is important work, and this award choice is a good one.
        
       | amatic wrote:
       | Congrats Svante Paabo! I saw his lecture in person a year or two
       | ago, it's really fascinating how the new genetic analysis tools
       | revolutionized the study of human evolution and migration.
        
         | ArtWomb wrote:
         | I had the similar pleasure of attending a Svante Paabo lecture
         | at Princeton. A bit after the Cell paper was published. The
         | entire team seemed like scientists genuinely chagrined at the
         | attention. Of course it should surprise no one that Neanderthal
         | / Homo Sapiens "gene flow" would spark imaginations ;)
         | 
         | It's the Year 2022, and it appears we've evolved
         | technologically to the point that Nobel calibre bioinformatics
         | can be done on consumer laptops. It should be enough to
         | literally calculate a personal Neanderthal / Denisovian
         | admixture ratio on your own, provided you have access to your
         | own sequence. With prices dropping on an Illumina machines,
         | gene sequencers could be as ubiquitous as the PC shortly.
         | Which, it's quite easy to see, results in the private sector
         | human gene hacking industry, where humans in competitive play
         | seek to "amp" their hominid characteristics for performance
         | advantage ;)
         | 
         | https://github.com/PrincetonUniversity/IBDmix
        
         | amatic wrote:
         | I thought he was Finnish, judging by the last name, but
         | according to Wikipedia, "Paabo was born in Stockholm and grew
         | up with his mother, Estonian chemist Karin Paabo."
         | 
         | Also interesting, "His father was biochemist Sune Bergstrom,
         | who shared the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine with Bengt
         | I. Samuelsson and John R. Vane in 1982"
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | Karin Paabo is a WW2 Estonian child refugee.
        
           | nodding_smiling wrote:
           | It's even more remarkable that Paabo never really had much of
           | a relationship with his father but still managed to follow
           | him in getting a Nobel Prize. Something to fuel nature-
           | nurture debates...
        
             | enviclash wrote:
             | Are you underestimating the choices of his mother and her
             | capacity for creating an unprecedented intellectual
             | atmosphere?
        
               | strikelaserclaw wrote:
               | so this guy had nature and nurture on his side, nice!
        
               | enviclash wrote:
               | That is the clear and smart way of phrasing it, I did not
               | have enough clarity to make the point, thanks!
        
               | asguy wrote:
               | Please try not to be tedious. If you want to stir the
               | pot, bring up the fact his mother selected a Nobel prize
               | winner to have kids with, so clearly had bias, or
               | something more creative.
        
               | enviclash wrote:
               | Your statement leaves little doubt to my unsettling
               | question, thanks for the clarity!
        
               | asguy wrote:
               | Or, I just pointed out that you went into the
               | conversation with a boring assumption. It's transparent.
        
               | enviclash wrote:
               | Yes yes, we know the problem.
        
       | rurban wrote:
       | No COVID-19 vaccination breakthrough awarded?
        
         | whizzter wrote:
         | The ones most likely to receive the prize isn't that old yet,
         | also since the DDT scandal they do prefer to wait a bit to
         | hedge on delivering prize before side-effects are known (Often
         | one wishes the ones awarding the peace prize had kept that in
         | mind).
        
           | folli wrote:
           | TIL
           | 
           | > Muller was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or
           | Medicine in 1948 "for his discovery of the high efficiency of
           | DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods".
        
       | benrapscallion wrote:
       | Atrocious that David Reich and Nick Patterson were not
       | recognized, although this is typical of the Nobel committee.
        
         | nodding_smiling wrote:
         | I hadn't considered that Reich and Patterson might have
         | deserved recognition. I think a case could possibly be made for
         | that, especially if the prize-winning work had been defined
         | more broadly as ancient DNA research in general rather than
         | sequencing archaic hominins and identifying introgression into
         | modern humans more specifically. Reich and Patterson were after
         | all heavily involved in the analysis identifying gene flow from
         | Neanderthals into modern non-Africans. But Reich's and
         | Patterson's (very successful and important) careers have
         | focused on more recent, within-sapiens population history, and
         | I think their role in archaic hominin work was less
         | "irreplaceable" than Paabo's. There are plenty of very
         | important archaic hominin papers from Paabo and collaborators
         | which did not involve Reich and Patterson at all: the earliest
         | Neanderthal mtDNA and autosomal sequences, Denisovan mtDNA
         | (which came out before the autosomal paper), much of the
         | biochemically focused work on gene expression differences
         | between species and so on, Sima de los Huesos... Reich and
         | Patterson also came into the picture quite a bit after Paabo
         | initiated the whole ancient DNA field - I think about 10 years
         | later. So, even though I would have for personal reasons
         | preferred that Reich and Patterson be recognised too, I think
         | Paabo's contributions in the more narrowly defined field of
         | archaic hominin research are very clearly much more
         | comprehensive and vital than theirs.
        
         | bhickey wrote:
         | My greatest contribution to scientific progress came in 2010
         | when I was having lunch with Nick. He described an admixture
         | problem to me, summarizing: "I've got observed populations and
         | I want to build a tree where I pick points for unobserved
         | populations such that it minimizes the edge length of the tree.
         | I can't seem to come up with a good algorithm for it."
         | 
         | "Nick, that's the Steiner Tree problem! It's NP-complete!" He
         | probably would've wasted a few more days going down that rabbit
         | hole.
         | 
         | Edit: Nick has some great Cold War spy games stories that I've
         | only heard him tell in broad strokes.
        
           | qclibre22 wrote:
           | Any hope of solving it using quantum computing?
        
             | jjtheblunt wrote:
             | NP-complete isn't necessarily bad, depending on the size of
             | inputs, right?
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | Most problems in this space have reasonable-time
               | approximations that get you close to the right answer for
               | far less computational complexity. Even without ever
               | having looked at Steiner trees before, I guess that there
               | were reasonable approximations, and confirmed that was
               | true without looking too hard. Letting Patterson know
               | about the problem mapping ("your problem is an instance
               | of <X>") is typically enough for a person of his calibre
               | to research approximate solutions good enough for him to
               | run some experiments.
               | 
               | (many people say the protein folding problem is NP-
               | complete, but the community generally believes you can
               | predict the folding pathways of all proteins without
               | explicitly running such calculations).
        
             | bhickey wrote:
             | Looks like there's a quantum speedup:
             | https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.03581 IIRC there's no epsilon
             | approximation.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | I thought the latter name sounded familiar and then I realized
         | I met with him at the Broad Insitute and he told an off color
         | joke about getting DNA from mosquito's testicles. Interesting
         | guy who worked on UK crypto before genomics.
        
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