[HN Gopher] Nuclear strike odds moved from "single" to "double d...
___________________________________________________________________
Nuclear strike odds moved from "single" to "double digits" in past
week
Author : xqcgrek2
Score : 17 points
Date : 2022-10-01 21:20 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.axios.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.axios.com)
| rogerkirkness wrote:
| Single most important project for any government right now is
| avoiding this.
| jpeter wrote:
| So nuclear blackmail is ok now. Surrender Ukraine or I nuke
| you. Surrender eastern europe or I nuke you. And what's next?
| xqcgrek2 wrote:
| Only India, China and perhaps Latin America might hold some
| sway over Putin. Even that seems doubtful given recent events.
| hodgesrm wrote:
| This was job #1 in US defense policy from the late 1940s to the
| early 1990s. There was a lull after the wall came down but it's
| back.
|
| In my opinion the only way to avoid nuclear war is to get rid
| of nuclear weapons entirely. Humans being what they are, it may
| take a war to get that point across.
| im3w1l wrote:
| The way I see it we live in a markov process where nuclear
| annihilation is an absorbing state. With mitigations we can
| increase the "halflife" of humanity so to speak, but only so
| much.
|
| The only long term solution is for civilization to go multi-
| planetary.
| peteradio wrote:
| How do you get rid of nuclear weapons entirely? Do you
| somehow erase the knowledge required to build nuclear
| weapons? How does this prevent knowledge/building from moving
| out of sight rather than actually disappearing? When I worked
| in a recycling facility in college I would collect old books
| off the conveyor describing nuclear engineering, how do you
| track me down to prevent that knowledge from proliferating?
| throwaway5959 wrote:
| The same way we don't make general artificial intelligence.
| We all agree not do it. It's just too dangerous. Dismantle
| all the nuclear warheads, destroy the materials, erase the
| research and focus on nuclear power instead.
|
| Whether or not we'll be smart enough as a species to avoid
| these research paths and behaviors... I'm not holding my
| breath.
| peteradio wrote:
| If you require 100% compliance in an endeavor, count on
| it failing.
| thfuran wrote:
| You can't destroy the knowledge required to make nukes.
| It's too widespread and they're too easy to make. There's
| some moderately difficult engineering involved in the
| material processing, but the basics are dead simple.
|
| And someone is totally going to make an AGI.
| throwaway5959 wrote:
| That's where avoiding behavior is important. Nuclear
| weapons don't spontaneously appear.
| [deleted]
| sterlind wrote:
| Not a workable idea, but a good sci-fi plot: get the major
| powers to give up their nukes. create a single, tiny
| nation, a nuclear Vatican, populated by citizens from all
| former nuclear powers. give them a number of ICBMs. have
| them nuke whoever else develops the tech.
| salawat wrote:
| Something about the phrase "nuclear Vatican" makes me
| giggle more than it should.
| arthurcolle wrote:
| Nuclear Vatican should just be the US
| Mountain_Skies wrote:
| Do you truly mean this? Because if you do, the answer is to
| simply capitulate. There are lots of reasons not to do that but
| if your goal above all others is to lessen the potential for a
| nuclear exchange, it is the way to go. There are of course
| other consequences to capitulation but immediate nuclear war
| isn't one of them.
| throw310822 wrote:
| > Do you truly mean this? Because if you do, the answer is to
| simply capitulate.
|
| Yes! Has the world gone crazy? Everyone is talking about the
| sacrifices they're willing to make to avert the risks
| potentially connected with climate change in many decades-
| and yet it seems that many accept the idea that in order to
| defend some principles it's fine to risk nuclear armageddon
| in the next month.
| vhgyu75e6u wrote:
| So your answer is let every nation that has a nuclear
| weapon do as it pleases? Can't wait for NK to demand SK or
| Israel demand Palestine or Iran demand for everyone to be
| Muslin.
| heydemo wrote:
| Capitulation rewards nuclear blackmail and invites
| emulation, causing future episodes of brinkmanship. It is
| far from clear this path is more likely to avoid
| "armageddon."
|
| You can dismiss freedom from mass rape, arbitrary
| execution, tyranny and the rights to dignity and self-
| determination as "some principles"- but without these
| principles there is no world that is worth saving.
| cmurf wrote:
| What he is doing is exactly what's proscribed in the UN Charter,
| and was argued to be the supreme international crime by a Soviet
| jurist at the Nuremberg trials: a war of aggression, intended to
| expand border or subjugate people. If Ukraine wins, there might
| be a nuclear detonation. If Ukraine backs down, it will be
| exterminated.
|
| It's better to have tried to stop this tyranny and die anyway,
| than to see it succeed and spread. This is blackmail. The world
| needs to categorically reject it. Importantly this means China
| and India need to reject this path.
|
| Ukraine has a right to exist, to free its people and territory.
| That Russia considers this so terrible that it's threatening to
| use nukes proves it cannot responsibly be a nuclear power. Free
| nations can't survive if it rolls over to this blackmail. Russia
| will come for more, having been shown the world will cower and
| give them whatever they want.
| rightbyte wrote:
| > a war of aggression [...] If Ukraine backs down, it will be
| exterminated.
|
| There has been many wars of aggression that does not end in
| countries being exterminated.
|
| Having Ukraine make it a do or die situation is nothing the US
| should support.
| detaro wrote:
| > _There has been many wars of aggression that does not end
| in countries being exterminated._
|
| In how many of those was a) erasing the target the stated
| goal of the aggressor and b) successful resistance was not
| the reason for it not ending that way?
___________________________________________________________________
(page generated 2022-10-01 23:01 UTC)