[HN Gopher] Helium, Pump and Dump
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       Helium, Pump and Dump
        
       Author : rmason
       Score  : 33 points
       Date   : 2022-09-29 18:56 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (jeffreycarter.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (jeffreycarter.substack.com)
        
       | renewiltord wrote:
       | Hmm, the pre-mine lock-in problem is interesting. How do other
       | crypto projects solve that?
        
       | askvictor wrote:
       | Having recently been investigating Internet connectivity options
       | for our product, I don't see what the value proposition of Helium
       | (for enterprise) is compared to M2M/IoT 4G mobile plans, which
       | are surprisingly cheap.
        
         | mmastrac wrote:
         | The M2M plans I saw have always been expensive -- ridiculous
         | prices for hundreds of kilobytes. I was tempted to jury-rig
         | some eSIM plans into devices, but it's not terribly easy to do
         | that right now with any off-the-shelf hardware.
        
         | schmichael wrote:
         | I think from the beginning Helium targeted people who just
         | didn't know anything about wireless. The economics have never
         | made any sense, and I'm fairly sure reselling your ISP's
         | Internet is a violation of their ToS. So the second this saw
         | any actual adoption, upstream ISPs would probably start coming
         | along to shut down the busiest nodes.
        
       | matrix_overload wrote:
       | If you want to successfully "disrupt" the mobile network
       | industry, you need to implement one specific regulatory change:
       | force the networks to strictly bill people per use, with no
       | minimums or monthly fees. So if you are making 90% of the calls
       | from a dense urban area and 10% from occasional road trips or
       | hikes, you can place these 90% calls through a cheaper local
       | provider, and use your major provider for the remaining 10%.
       | 
       | With the current "monthly plan" model it is simply impossible to
       | launch a new competing service because your users will still have
       | to keep their current subscription. You could argue that they
       | would switch to a lower plan, but with the current plan prices,
       | you could save like 10-20% by halving the amount of minutes/data
       | you get, so nobody will do that.
       | 
       | No way the founders did not understand that and no way they
       | expected an average retail miner to think about that and start
       | asking those questions.
       | 
       | If you want an example how the below-inflation interest rates
       | together with lack of antitrust enforcement create incentives for
       | various grifts vs. long-term profitable businesses, you got one
       | right here.
        
         | uncertainrhymes wrote:
         | Carriers assume most people most of the time won't use their
         | full allocation of minutes and data -- this is 'breakage' and
         | is built into their pricing. If they charged on usage, the
         | rates would look worse even if it was 'honest'. It is something
         | I would love to see, but the market can never make it stick.
         | 
         | I don't understand your point about a 'cheap local provider' --
         | they are all using the same towers, even if you get better
         | rates from a cheaper Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO)
         | like Boost or Mint. Their rates are lower because they buy data
         | in bulk and just manage sales and support. You don't
         | arbitrarily get to choose city vs rural coverage, it is the
         | same network infrastructure in the end.
        
       | cliftonk wrote:
       | so far as distribution, 25% to early investors and founding
       | employees seems pretty close to market. a "pump and dump" would
       | insinuate that founders/other management sold significant
       | holdings during the run-up and made fraudulent claims about the
       | business (they might have! but you arent providing evidence of
       | that).
       | 
       | as for early investors, there is absolutely nothing wrong with
       | those folks selling any amount of their stake as it becomes
       | liquid. i generally agree it is scammy to give early investors
       | short lockups on these token launches.... but the reality is that
       | many of these projects do have short lockups and that should be
       | part of your DD as an individual investor if you're investing in
       | crypto.
        
       | encryptluks2 wrote:
       | I never understood why people were comfortable connecting these
       | Chinese-made and backed black boxes into their Internet and also
       | having them broadcast on wireless networks. Now it appears they
       | want to mimic telecom networks as well. I am fine with this, but
       | you need regulatory agencies actually hiring people checking the
       | process and they should be able to be made out or standardized
       | parts
        
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       (page generated 2022-09-29 23:01 UTC)