[HN Gopher] Factory jobs are booming like it's the 1970s
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Factory jobs are booming like it's the 1970s
Author : jseliger
Score : 68 points
Date : 2022-09-26 19:31 UTC (1 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
| Apocryphon wrote:
| Wonder how this will affect/be affected by the revival in labor
| unions over the past couple of years.
| pkaye wrote:
| With the boomers retiring there will be less workers so workers
| will have more leverage. Companies will also want on bring back
| some of the jobs from overseas due to all the supply chain
| risks elsewhere.
| kube-system wrote:
| I suspect that with high labor demand and the fact that these
| jobs are shifting towards the south and west, there won't be
| much push for unionization at least for a little while.
|
| Now, if the market continues to cool down, it may be a
| different story.
| kombucha13 wrote:
| I'm all for manufacturing jobs coming back but do we have
| adequate environment protection to safely facilitate that kind of
| change? Part of the reason the air is so clean in the US is
| partially due to offshoring (for better or for worse).
| twblalock wrote:
| It's a fantasy to think we can have modern society without some
| form of environmental damage, and it's also a fantasy to
| believe that factory jobs would be less damaging to the
| environment if they were located in other countries.
| kombucha13 wrote:
| Thats not what I was saying at all. I don't prefer the
| outsourcing of pollution.
| outside1234 wrote:
| It can't be worse than what was happening in China
| daniel-cussen wrote:
| Cept in San Francisco, it swirls all the way from China and
| like 18% of the air pollution is from there. Like it was a
| suckafucking Japanese balloon bomb, the first intercontinental
| ranged weapon, only dent the Japanese made in the Manhattan
| Project was with that balloon. Very overpowered.
|
| It's not such a big planet.
| buescher wrote:
| Short answer: yes. Despite the doomsayers and the fact that you
| might not know anyone that works in manufacturing, the US is
| still a manufacturing powerhouse.
| https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor...
| At 18% of global manufacturing output already, "a net gain of
| 67,000 workers above prepandemic levels" is not going to move
| the needle.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| The world shares the air.
| api wrote:
| We live on one planet. Offshoring makes pollution a lot worse
| by not only moving it to where there's lax regulations but
| adding a whole bunch of additional energy cost to ship
| everything back here.
|
| Manufacturing where there are environmental regulations will
| push improvements in efficiency and waste management too,
| making the process more efficient in the long run.
| kombucha13 wrote:
| I dont disagree. I hope that adequate environmental
| regulations persist and those improvements in efficiency are
| realized.
| wizofaus wrote:
| Depends what sort of pollution though - obviously if you're
| talking GHG emissions or many other small-molecule airborne
| pollutants (though not CO) it doesn't really matter where
| it's being emitted. But other sorts of pollution are much
| more local, and depending on the surrounding ecosystem (esp.
| waterways) and level of human habitation, it very much may
| well make sense to ensure it only occurs in areas where it
| will have less harmful effect.
| gedy wrote:
| Compared to rest of world? Yes
| ch4s3 wrote:
| Much of the rest of the world, yes. Compared to maybe Germany
| perhaps not as much.
| rdtwo wrote:
| No they are all going to areas with lax regulations.
| rr808 wrote:
| I feel this is a reversing of the trend the last few decades.
| Asset prices dropping, tech in a hole, lowest earning workers
| getting the biggest raises.
| aaaaaaaaaaab wrote:
| >Asset prices dropping
|
| Which assets in particular?
| deelowe wrote:
| Not automobiles that's for sure.
| aaaaaaaaaaab wrote:
| And not real estate either.
| makomk wrote:
| Stocks, bonds, government gilts, even stuff like used cars
| and houses are looking a little less solid than they used to
| in many places.
| drewcoo wrote:
| What about wages? No real mention of the wages of the ex-middle
| class.
| kube-system wrote:
| The wages are better than the service industry job many of
| these workers are leaving
| antisthenes wrote:
| There's no way your average service worker is qualified for
| factory work like precision machining or assembling
| moderately electronic devices.
|
| Are they getting training on the job as well?
| kube-system wrote:
| Yes, factories train many of their workers.
|
| High skill positions often have vocational training, like
| welding or machining. Assembly work is learned on the job.
| kasey_junk wrote:
| The article quotes an aerospace manufacturer talking about
| training people with different backgrounds.
| tenebrisalietum wrote:
| Somebody has to put stuff in the box or operate the machine
| that does it.
| tullianus wrote:
| https://archive.ph/wIGLB
| euroderf wrote:
| So what's the latest then w.r.t. "Chimerica"[1] ?
|
| [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimerica
| throwayyy479087 wrote:
| Unwinding of global supply chains in order to reduce risk has
| been fantastic for the middle class.
|
| Look at the boom towns of Columbus, KC, Houston etc.
| fundad wrote:
| The people giddy for recession are not going to like this
| time_to_smile wrote:
| But the people giddy for the collapse of tech are going to be
| thrilled!
|
| The tech bubble continues to persist because people don't know
| where else to put their money. The tech bubble _started_
| because of the 2008 crash, investors needed a place to park
| their cash to see it grow, and tech seemed the best bet. That
| plus cheap capital meant throwing everything into tech no
| matter how ridiculous the fundamentals were.
|
| If this is really a trend we'll see the expedited crash of tech
| as money floods into manufacturing.
| ch4s3 wrote:
| There are plenty of tech companies that build real products
| and deliver real value. Some of them even take VC money.
| There will probably be less money flowing into businesses
| that look to grow to category dominance in the B2C space, but
| there's still so many places in the economy that could see
| productivity gains from adopting boring tech.
| UncleOxidant wrote:
| The very strong dollar would like a word.
| danjoredd wrote:
| Can confirm, the demand for factory work is insane right now. I
| know someone who went to work for a factory because the pandemic
| effectively killed his profession (union pipeline welder) and he
| pretty much exclusively works 12 hour shifts 6 days a week
| because there just isn't enough workers to keep up with the
| demand atm.
|
| He was in a desperate situation because he got saddled with debt
| trying to stay afloat during Covid, so he just does that and
| keeps his head down all the time while paying things off. Its a
| shame too, he was so close to retirement and now I don't think he
| will be able to.
| phpthrowaway99 wrote:
| How does a union welder get saddled with debt trying to stay
| afloat during covid? What was the thing he was taking on debt
| for to keep afloat? What does keeping something afloat even
| mean? He took on new debt to make payments on his old debt?
|
| I say this as someone that knows two pipeline welders in
| Wyoming. They were living it up with their time off. Who do you
| think bought all those side by sides in 2020 and 2021. You
| couldn't find one to buy no matter how far you were willing to
| drive. Do you think it was the office worker crowd buying $30k
| go-karts?
| mynameishere wrote:
| He goes to the Ford dealership and says he wants a truck. The
| salesman says, "How much are you looking to spend a month?"
| He says 800 dollars because that's the amount he has left
| over after his bills. He then owns an 800/month truck. Repeat
| every three years throughout life.
| fragmede wrote:
| I'm going to guess rent and living expenses, like for food.
| missedthecue wrote:
| But enough to eliminate the possibility of retirement? How
| much was he eating?
| phpthrowaway99 wrote:
| Yes, I often hear about dudes making $200k in 8 months of
| work, living in inexpensive areas of the country, having
| trouble buying food.
| JamesBarney wrote:
| This was a bunch of offshore workers.
|
| Make 14k in two weeks while offshore, not have a dime to
| their name 2 weeks later when they're going back out.
| phpthrowaway99 wrote:
| That's a cool stereotype to talk about, but for every
| broke guy that makes $200k living in Wyoming, I know more
| that own 10 acres, a nice house, a 3000 sq ft metal
| building next to it, $10k+ in guns and ammo, several paid
| off older vehicles, and one nice one with a payment for
| the wife and maybe himself. That is much more common that
| someone that makes great money but just CANT curb his
| spending.
| notsapiensatall wrote:
| No matter how inexpensive an area is today, how long do
| you think that will last when it suddenly has more $200k
| temp workers than longtime residents?
|
| Those workers often have to pay out the nose just to eat
| ramen in plywood closets, the money doesn't go much
| farther than it would in a dense city.
| phpthrowaway99 wrote:
| Most guys I know had their housing provided on site. They
| then traveled home between jobs. Or others had RV
| trailers with them so they didn't have to go home, if
| they even had a home at that time.
| danjoredd wrote:
| The way his job works is that he bids for jobs, gets accepted
| then go's out to wherever that job is. Usually spending 3-6
| months out at a time, then going home and bidding for other
| jobs. Thing is, according to him, there weren't any jobs
| during covid and he isn't known for being a saver. That is
| def on him, but he says he is still having trouble getting a
| pipeline job that his union allows. Personally, I know next
| to nothing about the pipeline welder industry outside of what
| he told me, as I am a programmer. I am going off his word
| which may/may not be accurate
| phpthrowaway99 wrote:
| If he's bidding on jobs, he's not exactly a union welder.
| He's a small business owner and in that case I agree things
| can definitely go south for various reasons.
| rootos wrote:
| I think bidding in this case means he puts his name down
| for jobs that are sent to the union hiring hall- and the
| jobs are allocated on the basis of seniority. Fewer jobs
| impacts those lower on the seniority list.
| prionassembly wrote:
| Debt is one of those "gradually, then suddenly" things.
| 1-6 wrote:
| Saving money is also that way as well.
| nebula8804 wrote:
| Can you give some insight into if he "blames" anyone in
| particular for his situation? I ask because a noticeable chunk
| of Democrat -> Trump voters (especially in the rust belt)
| specifically cite Bill Clinton and NAFTA for their abandoning
| the Democrats. It was a group Hillary took for granted and
| lost. Some percentage of those people appear to have sworn off
| Democrats for good. Since COVID started under Trump I wonder if
| he blames a particular side for his situation?
| oytis wrote:
| I guess Europe is going to miss out again?
| outside1234 wrote:
| Can definitely imagine them not wanting to be held hostage by
| China either???
| oneoff786 wrote:
| Can't exactly spring up your manufacturing base during an
| energy crisis. Mostly they'll just try to keep their
| important ones afloat.
| makomk wrote:
| Europe is basically deindustrialising right now due to a lack
| of sufficient energy supply:
| https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/business/europe-energy-cr...
|
| It's not even a case of Europe missing out, industry is
| actively collapsing over here.
| UncleOxidant wrote:
| How long will this last with the dollar as strong as it is now
| (and likely will continue to be for the next few years)?
| bretbernhoft wrote:
| This reminds me of a quote from one of my favorite short
| stories, "The dollar was strong and jobs were plentiful, so
| when the factory in town announced they were hiring, hundreds
| of people applied. John was one of the lucky few who got a job.
| The hours were long and the work was hard, but John was
| grateful to have a job that paid well. With the extra money, he
| was able to buy his family a new house."
| oneoff786 wrote:
| Why was John one of the lucky few; if jobs were plentiful?
| mistrial9 wrote:
| perhaps because a certain percentage of the adult
| population needing jobs are actually unfit in real-life for
| real reasons
| [deleted]
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| It's like an ominous beginning that's only positive...
| oneoff786 wrote:
| It will continue. The dollar is rising because people need
| American stuff, not in spite of it. So long as Europe doesn't
| have Russian gas, the rest of the world will be competing over
| a much smaller pool of energy in the form of LNG meaning it's
| just much more expensive to do manufacturing.
|
| It's not black and white but I would expect energy burdens to
| outweigh labor burdens for a good long while.
| nebula8804 wrote:
| Why not both? This huge workforce called the boomers
| accelerated their retirement during COVID and those workers
| don't entirely have a 1-to 1 replacement given that a sizable
| chunk of their kids majored in things like underwater basket
| weaving. Gen-Z is much smaller and is really focused on tech
| jobs, they are not going to make up the numbers. Where are
| you going to make up the shortfall? (BTW I understand that
| this is the Peter Zeihan POV).
| oneoff786 wrote:
| The US is not constrained by labor supply in the slightest.
| The basket weaving comment is inaccurate, irrelevant, and
| mostly just jaded cynicism. Gen Z is not focused on tech
| jobs either to any sort of meaningful extent that we can't
| build up manufacturing.
|
| If the US needs to make up a shortfall, it will simply open
| up immigration more.
|
| Good manufacturing jobs tend to be pretty good.
| nyokodo wrote:
| > will simply open up immigration more
|
| It's not so simple when the labor crunch is being felt in
| vast regions of the globe and many (most?) developing
| nations are aging faster than the US and are older on
| average or will be over the next 10 - 20 years.
| nicolashahn wrote:
| As a retail investor, how do I take advantage of this?
| lotsofpulp wrote:
| Buy and hold VOO or VTI or any other broad market low cost
| index fund. Unless you have information others do not (which
| usually disqualifies people getting informed by NYTimes). Time
| in the market > timing the market.
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