[HN Gopher] Housing markets are now set to 20%-25% home price de...
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       Housing markets are now set to 20%-25% home price declines, finds
       Moody's
        
       Author : gamechangr
       Score  : 12 points
       Date   : 2022-09-25 19:57 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (fortune.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (fortune.com)
        
       | lake_vincent wrote:
       | Moody's is corrupt to the core, so I take anything they say with
       | a grain of salt.
        
       | Finnucane wrote:
       | It'll be interesting to see what happens to inventory-for-sale
       | numbers. Presumably the market won't be flooded with forced sales
       | and foreclosures like 2009. One also wonders if the big corporate
       | investors who have been hoovering up properties will choose to
       | wait for the market to bottom.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | Inventory will climb, probably to pre covid or earlier numbers.
         | 
         | Time on market is the one I'll be keeping an eye on, because
         | that should be around 2-3 months. Longer indicates prices need
         | to fall, shorter indicates that they have room to rise.
        
       | justahuman74 wrote:
       | Any chance this will touch the bay area prices?
        
         | badlucklottery wrote:
         | > Any chance this will touch the bay area prices
         | 
         | The interactive map in the articles shows SF to be "overvalued"
         | (but not "significantly overvalued") and it states SF home
         | values are down 7.8% between May and August of this year.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | I'm not sure what map you're looking at, but the first map
           | (for 2022) shows that "san francisco-oakland-berkeley, ca"
           | has a value of -10.17, which means it's _undervalued_. From
           | the caption:
           | 
           | > IF A HOUSING MARKET HAS A NEGATIVE PERCENTAGE, IT MEANS
           | HOME PRICES THERE ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN FACTORING IN
           | LOCAL INCOMES. DATA FOR THE Second QUARTER OF 2022.
        
       | pengaru wrote:
       | I suspect anywhere there's substantial tourism/airbnb activity
       | the prices have taken a bubble-like trajectory. And I don't see
       | that abating, travel is only increasing. It'd require something
       | like regulations reeling in the whole short-term rental business,
       | or something else killing tourism.
       | 
       | So I'm inclined to ignore these numbers for anywhere having
       | significant tourism.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | Recessions can hamper tourism and once they have difficulty
         | covering the mortgage, things will snap wildly.
        
       | bdcravens wrote:
       | I bought into a new community this year. When I signed late last
       | year, most of the street was sold before the foundations were
       | poured.
       | 
       | They're now building the next section, a few blocks away. Many of
       | those houses are approaching completion and are still for sale.
        
       | vinyl7 wrote:
       | I sure hope so after the insane 50-100% bull run of the last two
       | years
        
         | jbverschoor wrote:
         | And maybe the 400% tech worker salary too
        
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       (page generated 2022-09-25 23:02 UTC)