[HN Gopher] Target Venus not Mars for first crewed mission to an...
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       Target Venus not Mars for first crewed mission to another planet,
       experts say
        
       Author : MrsPeaches
       Score  : 48 points
       Date   : 2022-09-25 17:33 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | orbital-decay wrote:
       | This was the original plan by Korolev and co, before the moon
       | speech by JFK, and before the conditions on Venus became known.
       | They wanted to figure out orbital assembly, and then
       | circumnavigate Venus as the first step in the Solar System
       | exploration. Hard to say how realistic it was, but modular
       | orbital stations were an offshoot of that original vision, so
       | it's been partially implemented.
        
       | xnx wrote:
       | A crewed flyby is barely more ridiculous than a crewed landing.
        
       | mannyv wrote:
       | Yea, because we need more harder problems to solve. /s
        
       | algerd wrote:
       | Why no stationary base on the moon?
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | Would you rather have a moon base or 10 probes exploring the
         | rest of the solar system?
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Probes.
        
           | Phrenzy wrote:
           | If I get any input, I would shave some part of the nearly
           | trillion dollar US military budget and use some of that
           | windfall to allow for both of the above options.
        
           | rightbyte wrote:
           | A moon base please.
        
       | United857 wrote:
       | Clickbait headline -- the proposal is for a flyby, not a landing.
        
         | Phrenzy wrote:
         | Which is why <<I>> performed a flyby of the article and came
         | directly to the comments.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | Has anything that has landed on Venus survived for more than a
         | "few" hours due to heat/pressure? Landing humans on Venus seems
         | more of a very cruel and unusual death sentence rather than
         | some sort of a viable science mission. Now, if I were on death
         | row and they offered me the choice of needle, chair, firing
         | rage, or land on Venus, well, I know which one I'd take!
        
           | dsr_ wrote:
           | Landing on Venus would be ridiculous.
           | 
           | However, Geoffrey Landis has (among others) proposed that we
           | put an atmosphere-floating habitat "on" Venus. PDF: https://n
           | trs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20030022668/downloads/20...
           | 
           | Abstract:
           | 
           | Although the surface of Venus is an extremely hostile
           | environment, at about 50 kilometers above the surface the
           | atmosphere of Venus is the most earthlike environment (other
           | than Earth itself) in the solar system. It is proposed here
           | that in the near term, human exploration of Venus could take
           | place from aerostat vehicles in the atmosphere, and that in
           | the long term, permanent settlements could be made in the
           | form of cities designed to float at about fifty kilometer
           | altitude in the atmosphere of Venus.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | And, breathing air is buoyant.
             | 
             | N2 is only 13% of the atmosphere, but if my calculations
             | are right, that means a very great deal more nitrogen than
             | we have, just dissolved into a lot more air.
             | 
             | To terraform, release machines that crack CO2 in the clouds
             | and drop diamonds. You release way too much oxygen, but
             | that will bind to the surface minerals. Main thing is to
             | keep the carbon from oxidizing again before you're ready.
        
       | loufe wrote:
       | I've been wondering about the "experts say" part of a headline
       | like this. Qualified people lending their opinion is an important
       | piece of information to the context of the article, absolutely,
       | but it also seems exclusive. It's not the opinion of the
       | editorial board of The Guardian, however I also know for a fact
       | that other "experts" would vehemently disagree. Would qualifying
       | this as "some experts say" erode the confidence of the title and
       | thus how sensational it is? Is it maybe implied in the framework
       | of news titles that this is not a universally held opinion by
       | "experts" so much as at least that of several?
        
         | ravi_m wrote:
         | Most likely the real reason is that articles with "experts say"
         | in the headline performs much better than "some experts say" or
         | "some experts wonder if".
         | 
         | The underlying reason for the higher CTR is that most readers
         | want to engage with articles that are more certain than less
         | and their inability to fill in the unstated uncertainty gets
         | exploited.
        
       | ufmace wrote:
       | I don't get what the point is of a crewed flyby. The crew would
       | just be cooped up in the craft the whole time with nothing to do
       | except take measurements with instruments that could just as
       | easily be done by a machine.
       | 
       | This isn't the Apollo era, we're pretty confident we can send
       | spacecraft all over the solar system and keep humans alive in
       | space for years.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | > we're pretty confident we can [...] keep humans alive in
         | space for years
         | 
         | Are we? In outer space? Radiation, psychology/isolation, months
         | away from any support in case of an emergency? My understanding
         | is that there are a lot of open questions, and that even a mere
         | fly-by mission would constitute a major new step in manned
         | space flight.
        
           | AstralStorm wrote:
           | Indeed, we should rather attempt sending such a ship in one
           | piece to the moon first. Right now we would have problems
           | actually assembling such a craft. Note how long and cost
           | intensive it was to assemble a bigger space station.
           | 
           | Gateway program is such a baby step, assembling a base in
           | moon orbit.
           | 
           | Ultimately, we would need an orbital facility to assemble
           | bigger ships well without paying the immense costs of ultra
           | heavy launches.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | It would essentially be an ISS mission with a few extra rocket
         | burn stages and a different view.
        
           | xattt wrote:
           | Is a fully-assembled ISS capable of withholding torsional
           | stress that would come from insertion burns?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | cratermoon wrote:
         | There was, in fact, a plan in the Apollo Applications Program
         | for a crewed Venus flyby, using the SIVB as a wet workshop for
         | habitation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby
        
       | hsnewman wrote:
       | We should seed Venus with microbs that consume amonia and the
       | other chemicals on Venus, starting at least to make it habitable.
        
       | causality0 wrote:
       | _"You'd be learning about how people work in deep space, without
       | committing yourself to a full Mars mission," he said._
       | 
       | All of these "Not Mars" people always seem to fall into the same
       | boat where they know there's zero point to sticking human beings
       | and life support systems into an observation probe so they trot
       | out this "it's good practice, guys!" horseshit. Scientific
       | progress is not the point of putting the first set of boots on
       | Mars any more than it was the reason for first climbing Everest.
       | The point is to prove it can be done. _After_ that you can
       | quibble about the most efficient method of further human
       | spaceflight development. It 's like they're standing in the way
       | of us learning to walk because they insist we figure out the best
       | brand of shoe first.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Going to Mars will be among humanity's least revered
         | achievements. There is nothing there.
         | 
         | The only plausibly valuable exports from Mars might be the
         | engines that got your supplies there. With their bells cut off.
        
           | Phrenzy wrote:
           | Among the least revered? You mean, below peanut butter and
           | jelly in the same jar? If humanity is going to emerge out of
           | the cradle, Mars will have to be the 2nd step. Right after
           | Luna.
           | 
           | As we are out there exploring & homesteading, maybe we will
           | realize what a gem the Earth truly is.
        
       | aatd86 wrote:
       | The title fails to mention that the experts in question were
       | astrologists.
       | 
       | Not astrophysicists.
       | 
       | /jk
        
       | nynx wrote:
       | A crewed flyby? What is the point of that? Colonizing the clouds
       | of venus is a good idea eventually, but it's certainly not a
       | viable first target.
        
         | kitsunesoba wrote:
         | Fully agree. If we're committing to multi-month crewed missions
         | I think we should be planning for boots on the ground and setup
         | of barebones support for long term habitation. In that
         | situation you can send and land several loads of supplies in
         | advance of the crewed mission, significantly improving chances
         | of success. Landing the crew is risky but that's always going
         | to be true, no many flybys you do.
        
         | kadoban wrote:
         | > Colonizing the clouds of venus is a good idea eventually, but
         | it's certainly not a viable first target.
         | 
         | Sure seems a _lot_ more interesting than Mars at least.
        
         | hadlock wrote:
         | Just like the moon, we did not attempt to land there on the
         | first go-around. Neil Armstrong was on Apollo 11. Apollo 4-6
         | were unmanned launches, 7-9 were testing the hardware with
         | humans, mostly with "free return" orbits where even if the
         | engines didn't start again, they would land back on earth in
         | about a week. Apollo 10 was a wet rehersal that did everything
         | except land on the moon#, including "parking" in lunar orbit,
         | then starting up the engines again and going back to earth;
         | finally Apollo 11-17 actually were "boots on the ground"
         | 
         | A venus flyby would be similar to Apollo 10 where they would go
         | to another body, and then do a free return fly-by, maybe with
         | engine assist, and return back in a year. Regardless of if/when
         | we go to mars, there will be at least one "free return" mission
         | before they attempt future missions that have a "parking orbit"
         | around mars.
         | 
         | Going to Venus would allow us to simulate a mars free return
         | trip, but in only 1 year (which would mean for a mars-class
         | ship, a minimum safety factor of 3 (really, six) for fuel,
         | water, air, food, medical supplies etc), instead of a 3 year
         | mission with only a safety factor of 2.
         | 
         | #Apollo 10 was functionally identical to Apollo 11, to the
         | extent that the only difference was that they did not provide
         | enough fuel on the lander/ascent module to return to lunar
         | orbit, to deter Apollo 10 astronauts from "going rogue" and
         | attempting a landing ahead of schedule
         | 
         | Also, for completeness sake, Apollo 1 crew died during testing
         | in a fire; Gus Grissom, Edward H. White II, Roger B. Chaffee
        
           | unnouinceput wrote:
           | >finally Apollo 11-17 actually were "boots on the ground"<
           | 
           | Nitpick: Apollo 11, 12 and 14-17 were boots on the ground. 13
           | had no boots on the ground.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | They had the boots, and meant to put them on the ground.
             | But Fred Haise would have suffered more terribly.
        
           | monocasa wrote:
           | The whole point of Apollo 10 was to be the dry run for Apollo
           | 11.
           | 
           | Doing all of that with no actual plans to land seems silly.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Anyway, with no plans to dip to cloud level.
             | 
             | Actually landing people on Venus could only be a disastrous
             | mistake.
        
           | xani_ wrote:
           | > Going to Venus would allow us to simulate a mars free
           | return trip, but in only 1 year (which would mean for a mars-
           | class ship, a minimum safety factor of 3 (really, six) for
           | fuel, water, air, food, medical supplies etc), instead of a 3
           | year mission with only a safety factor of 2.
           | 
           | Simulate what ? Sitting in place ? We can do that on earth
           | orbit. Engines running for long time ? No need for people
           | aboard for that.
        
             | Spartan-S63 wrote:
             | For one, leaving the safety of Earth's magnetosphere. We
             | haven't really ventured far enough for radiation to not be
             | tempered by Earth's magnetic field, from what I understand.
             | It would shorten the duration of radiation and help study
             | the effects on astronauts.
        
               | xani_ wrote:
               | So, go to moon. No real need to go to another planet just
               | to irradiate some astronauts and in case shit hits the
               | fan they have chance of surviving
        
               | AstralStorm wrote:
               | Precisely the goal of Gateway, of which Artemis/SLS are
               | pieces.
        
             | turndown wrote:
             | I think space is one of those places where you can appeal
             | to unknown unknowns being a major risk factor and everyone
             | agrees. But I personally think that the better option is to
             | just do all of this on the moon. Making a human-habitable
             | base on the moon, to me, still makes the most sense for
             | preparing for habitation on other worlds.
        
               | readams wrote:
               | Avoiding the need to wait 26 months between launch
               | windows certainly reduces the degree of difficulty. Going
               | from "oh we wish we had X that we didn't think of" to
               | having it is literally almost 3 years on Mars.
        
               | xani_ wrote:
               | It's not to avoid the difficulty, it's to make iteration
               | safer and easier. Good luck seeing what failed if the
               | craft that failed is flying somewhere between earth and
               | mars
        
             | cratermoon wrote:
             | Interplanetary space is significantly different
             | environment, compared to low earth orbit, for spacecraft
             | and crews. The only knowledge we have of humans beyond the
             | Van Allen Belts is from Apollo, for relatively short
             | durations.
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | > Engines running for long time ?
             | 
             | Not with chemical rockets. Perhaps you meant "engines
             | sitting idle for years in interplanetary space, and then
             | restarting reliably".
        
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