[HN Gopher] Kazakhstan's president: We're moving full speed ahea...
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Kazakhstan's president: We're moving full speed ahead toward reform
Author : acqbu
Score : 119 points
Date : 2022-09-25 14:37 UTC (8 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.politico.eu)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.politico.eu)
| Galicarnax wrote:
| As someone actually living in Kazakhstan, I would not take any
| words of the current government too seriously.
| Ozzie_osman wrote:
| I don't know much about Kazakh politics, but having grown up in
| an autocratic country, I'd say having a sitting president agree
| to impose a one term limit is a Pretty Huge Deal.
| classichasclass wrote:
| What have you personally seen or perceived, if you're able to
| discuss in detail?
| Galicarnax wrote:
| It's just too often that what they say disagrees with what
| they do, and too often that they declare reforms. They
| promised the freedom of speech, and yet, right now, before
| the presidential elections, they try to shut the mouths of
| journalists who criticize them (typically, fabricating cases
| against them).
|
| And, if you didn't know - the first thing Tokayev did in 2019
| when Nazarbayev (the first president who ruled almost 30
| years) handed the rein to him - is that he proposed to rename
| the Kazakhstani capital, Astana, to Nur-Sultan (Nazarbayev's
| first name). And of course, the Parliament unanimously
| supported the idea. Not a single member objected.
|
| Few months ago it was "proposed" by someone from the
| Parliament (of course, not as an own initiative, hence
| quotes) to rename the capital back to Astana, and Tokayev
| supported. The parliament voted unanimously. Not a single
| member objected.
|
| I do agree that things seem better in Kazakshtan now than
| they were even a decade ago, or even than they are now in
| most other post-Soviet countries. But it's still way too
| far...
| ur-whale wrote:
| > As someone actually living in Kazakhstan, I would not take
| any words of the current government too seriously.
|
| When providing such strong contrarian opinion, it is customary,
| or even expected to provide some sort of backing rationale ...
| vbezhenar wrote:
| When you hear that your government is going to do a
| groundbreaking reforms. Every few years. After a while you'll
| get some tolerance to those claims.
| loufe wrote:
| While the recent Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan conflict is not one of
| "major powers" this line still felt ill-timed:
|
| "Throughout our history -- and particularly since our
| independence -- we've always taken the view that disagreements
| with neighbors must be approached constructively, and they need
| not lead to a breakdown in communication, cooperation or trust.
|
| As a result, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia more widely, provide a
| strong case study of major powers' ability to work in alignment,
| in pursuit of their interests that are to the benefit of the
| region's people. "
| paulcarroty wrote:
| Full speed ahead toward reform? With russian military kicking
| protesters, regularly disabled internet and big China influence?
|
| Nope, feels like bullshit.
| Apocryphon wrote:
| Great success!
| nurgasemetey wrote:
| I would not jump to believe to his words after his offshore money
| [1].
|
| [1] https://www.occrp.org/en/suisse-secrets/the-offshore-
| secrets...
| JoeAltmaier wrote:
| Encouraging!
| yawaramin wrote:
| Good luck with the reform but without approval voting or similar
| electoral reform, they risk getting stuck with a polarized
| political system and electorate (much like the US now).
| yorwba wrote:
| Kazakhstan is already using proportional representation:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kazakh_legislative_electi...
|
| The bigger problem so far have been restrictions on which
| parties are allowed to run in the first place. (Hence Tokayev's
| statement that "We're ushering in a new era of pluralism by
| abolishing constraints on the registration and formation of
| political parties.")
| [deleted]
| exabrial wrote:
| Step 1: Break ties with Russia. Until then, everything is double-
| speak
| lossolo wrote:
| They are already doing that, they are pivoting to China, in
| 2023 they are leaving substitute of NATO in east, in which
| Russia plays a big role, they denied helping Russia with war in
| Ukraine and after newest China-Kazakhstan meeting it's obvious
| that China will be a new patron of Kazakhstan and also
| guarantee their territorial integrity.
| vhgyu75e6u wrote:
| Translation: we are sticking to whoever allows us to remain
| in power and keep our status as is.
| [deleted]
| ansgri wrote:
| Step 0: get all those tens (hundreds?) of thousands of mostly
| highly-educated professionals fleeing the military draft to
| Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia (mostly). Even though Russian
| government says IT workers are exempt, everyone that can flee
| the country and haven't done that earlier, runs now. It could
| be a huge opportunity for these countries' economies if managed
| well.
| ClumsyPilot wrote:
| they are kind of 'Surrounded' by Russia and China, there is no
| other route from Kazahstan to the rest of the world
|
| Look at the map, the only other border they have is with a
| litany of failed states with zero infrastructure or freedom.
| mcfedr wrote:
| Russia has infrastructure and freedom?
| ClumsyPilot wrote:
| Have you looked at the map? Would you rather be in Russia
| or Afghanistan?
| mtmail wrote:
| "only other border" so Russia or China were not meant. The
| other borders are to Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan.
| breitling wrote:
| ok. Go easy in the kool-aid.
| walrus01 wrote:
| It has infrastructure, if we mean railways, electrical
| grid, etc. Freedom, obviously not so much.
| ansgri wrote:
| Infrastructure in largest cities, especially Moscow, is
| world-class. The public transportation is (was?) one of
| the best globally, most services are digital, banking is
| very modern with good mobile apps and instantaneous
| operations. And I really miss the reliable centralized
| hot water supply and heating.
| ur-whale wrote:
| > Step 1: Break ties with Russia.
|
| Easier said than done in the case of Kazakhstan, a country
| literally stuck between a very sharp rock (Russia) and a very
| hard place (China).
|
| Also, re: doublespeak, in times of war ... it is a well known
| historical fact that both sides are deeply guilty of this
| specific sin (in times of war, the first victim is truth as the
| saying goes), so I'm not sure how what you're asking for is
| even possible.
| AlexanderDhoore wrote:
| Seeing is believing.
| mynameishere wrote:
| _There is simply no viable alternative to globalization,
| interdependence and the international rules-based order_
|
| Sounds like the check cleared!
|
| Really, though, it's just one paragraph after another of pablum.
| Does it amount to, "All our Uranium reserves belong to WEF!"
| Anyone know the real story? With this much avoiding-the-topic,
| there just has to be something nefarious going on.
| max_likelihood wrote:
| I believe they want to signal to the rest of the world that
| they are still a stable alternative for western nuclear fuel
| buyers. Uranium is the spice, and the spice must flow. Of
| course they also export coal, gas and oil too.
| ___j___ wrote:
| Let's hope they succeed. Good luck
| lowkey_ wrote:
| For anyone unaware, earlier this year, Kazakhstan faced protests
| over gas prices (it was a tipping point, there's a lot of wealth
| inequality) and this president requested the help of Russian
| security forces to enter the country and help quell riots, and
| they ended up killing rioters [1].
|
| Most of my Kazakh friends were rooting for the rioters, wanting a
| more free Kazakhstan, while one friend close to the government
| was sharing government-sponsored propaganda against the rioters.
|
| It's interesting to see the Kazakh president now take this stance
| and say all of this.
|
| [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-59894266
| shswkna wrote:
| Rioters are not always on the good side. One recent example is
| what happened in South Africa a couple months ago:
|
| https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57996373
| ftl64 wrote:
| Things aren't actually as clear-cut as you say. While protests
| started out peacefully things quickly escalated into violence,
| especially in Almaty. Most notably, armed bandits captured the
| city's airport, burned most of the government buildings, tried
| to assault multiple law enforcement agency offices, tried to go
| live on multiple TV channels, robbed ATMs, etc. The government
| has promised a large-scale investigation into the events, but
| is is already clear those people didn't want either freedom nor
| democracy and were quite probably influenced by criminal and
| illegal armed groups.
| dnissley wrote:
| A good account about why it isn't so clear cut:
| https://www.palladiummag.com/2022/02/24/what-happened-in-
| kaz...
|
| _In a video from January 5th, people can be seen snatching
| up rifles offloaded by a truck. Some were likely convinced on
| the spot to grab one of the firearms being handed out, but
| who was responsible for acquiring them?_
| ftl64 wrote:
| Highly factual and well-written. Thanks for sharing the
| link.
| throwoutway wrote:
| Simplest theory:
|
| - weapons were owned by the military or LE
|
| - Weapons were stolen from storage or armory by corrupt
| officials and put somewhere less secure for later sale
|
| - someone who knew where they were and wanted to support
| the rioters stole them and shared them out quickly
|
| - or criminal elements stole them and spread them to seed
| more chaos and tie up LE while they focused on robbing
| something more substantial
| gtsop wrote:
| Seems pretty clear cut to me. Rioting implies violence. The
| examples you noted are bound to happen durring such times.
| gnull wrote:
| The top comment implies that the protestors who demanded
| lower gas (propane, not gasoline) prices and later
| political reforms were the ones responsible for violence,
| or involved in it. There's plenty of evidence that this
| isn't the case.
|
| People who started the violence were clearly trained for
| this and very organized, they were shooting police on the
| streets, looting firearm stores, giving away firearms to
| random people to encourage chaos. Also the government
| ordered police and SWAT teams to leave the cities for 1-2
| days which hints at some officials being involved in this.
|
| Russian army wasn't involved in fighting on the streets and
| certainly wasn't "killing" anyone. Russians were invited
| mainly for a political and morale effect.
|
| I don't know what the top commenter was reading to get
| these conclusions, but they are clearly not representing
| any of the mainstream hypotheses explaining the events. I'm
| saying this as someone who has his family there when it
| happened and followed every single piece of news from there
| full time. And after everything was over I went there and
| talk to some people who witnessed the events.
| kevingadd wrote:
| Escalation into violence does not discredit a revolution
| while it IS extremely regrettable and perhaps discredits the
| people involved. If escalation into violence was able to
| discredit a revolution, the regular every-day violence
| inflicted on the civilian population by bad cops, etc would
| discredit the government or at least policing.
|
| At the point where rioters are being killed instead of merely
| arrested it's hard for me to look negatively at the rioters
| choosing to strike out with violence of their own. They
| aren't using the tools and backing of the state to oppress.
| gkya wrote:
| ftl64 wrote:
| It is sure easy to make political comments on countries
| that you know so little about, know no one from and have
| never been to. fyi, I am from Almaty and been in the city
| in January. Can you even imagine how it felt here, waking
| up from gunfire in the night, having no internet and mobile
| connection, no means of getting in touch with people you
| care about, wondering if tomorrow you will still have
| running water, electricity and heating? Exactly. This was
| no people's protest, but one of a small bunch of barbaric
| radicalists, a shock and a fever dream for all of the
| citizens of the country.
|
| edit: in case someone is not yet convinced: https://www-
| rbc-ru.translate.goog/politics/06/01/2022/61d6b3...
| gkya wrote:
| Yeah that's definitely what it was. I'm no westerner, so
| I know what this looks like and what local fascists
| interpret it as. Tell your stories to someone else.
|
| Also, quoting your link:
|
| "According to the Alma-Ata police, on the morning of
| January 6, dozens of rioters were killed during the
| storming of administrative buildings in the city and its
| environs."
| Larrikin wrote:
| It's sounds like a protests in every other country.
| DoItToMe81 wrote:
| Some civilians had their heads sawed off with machetes.
| voz_ wrote:
| BurningFrog wrote:
| This happens even in my US city.
|
| When there is a major protest that keeps the Police busy,
| criminals take the opportunity to loot stores while there is
| no law enforcement to stop them.
| throwayyy479087 wrote:
| During the BLM protests in NYC in 2020, looters and
| protesters were the same people.
|
| Source: was there, as were a ton of friends. Still waiting
| for the congressional investigation there.
| cheriot wrote:
| In SF's BLM protests, they were completely separate
| groups.
| oblak wrote:
| If it's obvious to us that big changes are coming, it must be
| obvious to them.
| ftl64 wrote:
| Also, nowhere in the article it says that Russian security
| forces ended up killing rioters.
| vbezhenar wrote:
| According to official sources, Russian forces were dislocated
| to guard important objects which allowed Kazakh forces to
| quell the terrorists and take situation under control. So
| Russian forces did not engage in the actual fight, but rather
| backed up Kazakh forces.
|
| What really happened is that Kazakh military did not want to
| obey the President orders when this chaos started. It's
| speculated that this was act of treason by some high
| officials in an attempt of coup. That's why Tokaev asked
| Russia to intervene. After Russia confirmed that they
| actually do support Tokaev with some symbolic forces sent,
| Kazakh military started to obey the orders and started to
| actually do what they must. That's my opinion.
| gnull wrote:
| The way you frame the situation is hardly justified, most of
| what you say doesn't match any of the commonly accepted
| explanations.
|
| First of all, it's not bad president against good protestors.
| There were actually two things going on on the streets:
| peaceful protestors with political and economical demands, and
| armed organized bandits/terrorists wreaking havoc and
| destabilising situation as much as they could.
|
| The bandits were killing the police (also going to hospitals to
| finish any wounded police officers they could find), storming
| jails trying to set criminals free, burning government
| buildings, they gave fake calls to firefighters and killed the
| crews when those arrived.
|
| I leave it to you to read up on who could be orchestrating the
| bandits. I suggest you focus on local (CIS-based, Russian
| speaking) news media and telegram channels for that. But one of
| the important hypotheses is that it was all made by the forces
| in power opposing Tokaev (the president), and he called the
| Russians because he didn't trust his own men's loyalty.
| Russians were protecting some critical infrastructure (which
| never got attacked, so they didn't fight anyone) including
| president's headquarters (which was very, very far from the
| core of riots).
| thriftwy wrote:
| Kazakhstan, paradoxically, as it stands today is the most
| successful and prosperous country of ex-USSR. Baltic states have
| larger GDP/person but also a slew of other issues.
|
| I'd try to not ruin that when taking any reforms into account.
| consumer451 wrote:
| I'd imagine having Russia's only spaceport in their country
| would give them _some_ negotiating power?
| 88840-8855 wrote:
| Russia has space ports on their own soil. 30 to 40% of all
| starts were from their own souls, increasing trend.
| distances wrote:
| I can think contracting population to be one thorny issue the
| Baltic states face, but how else is Kazakhstan in a better spot
| than say Estonia?
| warinukraine wrote:
| Could this be Kazakhstan's pivot to the west?
| ayazhan wrote:
| i was born and raised in Kazakhstan, but left after high school.
| i've been following the situation in Kazakhstan and recent events
| give me a glimpse of hope.
|
| Kazakhstan, just like any other post-soviet country, suffers from
| a host of problems inherited from the USSR, such as.
|
| - corruption
|
| - inefficient political system
|
| - erased identity
|
| - soviet mentality
|
| in addition, our geopolitics is quite challenging. not only do we
| border 2 major powers that often in disputes over territories
| (Russia and China), but we're also a landlocked country heavily
| relying on the very same neighbours for exports. i'm not even
| talking about our water insecurity.
|
| but we also got lucky in some ways.
|
| - Kazakhstan is blessed with natural resources (such as oil),
| which helped us a lot throughout the early 2000s
|
| - fertility rate is above replacement (2.6-2.9)
|
| - we have direct access to some of the biggest markets (Russia,
| China)
|
| - our borders were not chopped up to plant disputes with
| neighbours
|
| in theory, if we play our cards right, we could come out on top.
| our population is around 19 million, so agriculture, mining and
| services alone should be enough to provide jobs. Kazakhstan is
| already moving in the right direction to facilitate business
| development (ranks 25 for easy doing business [1])
|
| i've been following the youth of Kazakhstan and have to admit
| that they are way more patriotic and optimistic than my
| generation. they're fluent in Kazakh, open minded and more
| politically savvy. our culture is also flourishing (Kazakh songs
| consistently accumulate more views on youtube than the population
| of the country) and our national identity is strengthening.
|
| i see there is some criticism over Tokayev's proposals and it's
| easy to be skeptical after 30 years of a repressive regime.
| however, i still dare to hope. prosperity is doable and we simply
| need a better government with a fair justice system and
| distributed power. if the government manages to stay away from
| people's business and just provide a solid platform for stable
| life, i think we can go far. this aligns with the "Just and Fair
| Kazakhstan" plan proposed by the president and i'm happy to see
| it.
|
| 1. https://archive.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings
| gnull wrote:
| I think even if he fails to implement a better, more balanced
| political system, it's still really good that they promote all
| these as good things. It contrasts with Russian official's
| rhetoric who give people bs about Russia's own special way with
| no democracy.
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