[HN Gopher] "Titanic" Disaster: Report of the Committee on Comme...
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       "Titanic" Disaster: Report of the Committee on Commerce, US Senate
       (1918) [pdf]
        
       Author : miobrien
       Score  : 79 points
       Date   : 2022-09-17 12:29 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.senate.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.senate.gov)
        
       | toinewx wrote:
       | the report says
       | 
       | - the titanic did not beak in two parts
       | 
       | - there was no substantial suction
       | 
       | So the movie is inaccurate
        
         | Comevius wrote:
         | Some passengers got this wrong, but the Titanic did broke in
         | two. It's hull girder couldn't tolerate much bending, as the
         | water filled the front of the ship, it started to break after
         | the stern was up 15 degrees. One passenger claims that he even
         | heard when it first snapped. Many witnessed the ship breaking
         | in two and sinking. Later we found the wreckage that also
         | confirmed it.
        
         | adamj9431 wrote:
         | The movie is right. Some survivors said it broke in half, many
         | didn't. It was thought it went down in one piece until the
         | shipwreck was discovered in the 1980s.
        
         | scoopertrooper wrote:
         | If so, then the video footage of the Titanic in two pieces on
         | the ocean floor must also be inaccurate.
        
       | itcrowd wrote:
       | My little trivia for the Titanic has always been that Violet
       | Jessop was on board, surviving three accidents from sister ships:
       | Titanic, Olympic and Brittanic!
       | 
       | Go read the wiki, it's amazing:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet_Jessop
        
       | russfink wrote:
       | The sister ship, Olympic, was refitted after the accident and had
       | a long career to 1935. It had its own set of illustrious fatal
       | incidents. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Olympic
        
         | akvadrako wrote:
         | There is a new podcast _Did Titanic Sink_ that suggests it was
         | actually the Olympic that sunk instead of the Titanic and the
         | ships were switched for insurance fraud reasons.
         | 
         | https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/did-titanic-sink
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | That cinsiracy theory is as old as the Titanic. Besides
           | involving the intentional killing of hundreds if people, it
           | never made sense for a ton of reasons. It was alos debunked
           | hundrds if times by now...
        
       | haunter wrote:
       | I actually like the recommendations parts and already talks about
       | encryption!
       | 
       | >The committee finds that this catastrophe makes glaringly
       | apparent the necessity for regulation of radiotelegraphy. There
       | must be an operator on duty at all times, day and night, to
       | insure the immediate receipt of all distress, warning, or other
       | important calls. Direct communication either by clear-speaking
       | telephone, voice tube, or messenger must be provided between the
       | wireless room and the bridge, so that the operator does not have
       | to leave his station. There must be definite legislation to
       | prevent interference by amateurs, and to secure secrecy of
       | radiograms or wireless messages. There must be some source of
       | auxiliary power, either storage battery or oil engine, to insure
       | the operation of the wireless installation until the wireless
       | room is submerged.
       | 
       | Also the HTML version is here
       | https://www.titanicinquiry.org/USInq/USReport/AmInqRep01.php
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | Nearly all those recommendations have effectively been
         | implemented in modern boats... Not sure if the law requires it,
         | or boat designers just see it as a sensible design.
         | 
         | Quite impressive for someone to read an incident report and
         | actually implement the recommendations - so often they sit in a
         | filing cabinet forever.
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | > Quite impressive for someone to read an incident report and
           | actually implement the recommendations - so often they sit in
           | a filing cabinet forever.
           | 
           | That's not really true. There is a saying when it comes to
           | transportation regulations, "Safety regulations are written
           | in blood." That is, nearly all safety regulations are the
           | result of analysis after a tragic accident.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | Oh yes, but nearly all accident reports make perhaps 30
             | recommendations, any one of which would probably have
             | averted the disaster that just happened, of which only
             | perhaps 3 are implemented. The other 27 usually get skipped
             | because they're too costly/politically unpopular/no longer
             | seem important after some other changes have been made to
             | prevent reoccurance.
        
               | frutiger wrote:
               | Genuine question, as I have no domain knowledge: is it
               | usual that 10% of recommendations are adopted and 90% are
               | ignored?
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | I have no maritime knowledge, but I do handle a lot of
               | incident reports. Yes, it's common for there to be 30
               | recommendations and 3 get fully implemented. Perhaps a
               | few more get part implemented or people talk about doing
               | them and it goes nowhere.
        
               | kevincox wrote:
               | Based on my work in software systems yes.
               | 
               | Generally when I write a postmortem there is a long list
               | of modifications that could solve the problem. However
               | they all have different costs, different effectiveness,
               | different specificity and may overlap in different ways.
               | This means that the high-cost, highly-specific
               | modification may not be worth implementing when a lower
               | cost and very broad modification can cover that same
               | class of problems (even if not quite as effectively).
               | 
               | As an example you may have two recommendations:
               | 
               | 1. Queue the requests and add many retries so that if a
               | problem occurs in the future the requests are not lost
               | and the problem can be fixed or allowed to resolve
               | itself.
               | 
               | 2. Add a second implementation of the process using
               | different technologies and dependencies and fail over to
               | it if the first implementation fails.
               | 
               | If this specific type of request is not very latency
               | sensitive 2 is likely not worth it even though it is an
               | improvement over just doing 1. 2 might be the better
               | solution as well however 1 would greatly mitigate not
               | only the specific request that had a problem this time
               | but all similar requests in the system so 1 is good to do
               | even if 2 is done for the other types of request.
               | 
               | In the end I would say that both are good recommendations
               | however the logical business choice is just to do 1.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | That's probably how it should be. Every regulation has a
               | cost. If you want to manage that cost efficiently, you
               | should look at the set of recommendations as a portfolio,
               | compare across multiple accidents, and implement the most
               | cost-effective recommendations that will prevent the most
               | accidents.
        
           | tialaramex wrote:
           | SOLAS. International maritime law requires a _lot_ of stuff
           | to ensure the Safety Of Life At Sea. SOLAS is initially a
           | treaty which happens because of Titanic, but was updated
           | repeatedly and eventually moved to a model where the safety
           | rules change and you either keep up or you need to explicitly
           | say  "Nope, our country hates safety now". Unsurprisingly
           | nowhere civilised wants to do that.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOLAS_Convention
           | 
           | SOLAS doesn't make a lot of requirements of recreational
           | vessels but in practice you'll have a Digital Selective
           | Calling VHF radio much like SOLAS requires a container ship
           | to have, because either local laws require it or just it was
           | really annoying without it as you can't talk to anybody. DSC
           | has automated Mayday. So it's practical to teach children how
           | to activate it at about the same age you teach them to make a
           | 911/ 112/ whatever phone call. The radio will make Mayday
           | radio calls, automatically giving its location (unless it
           | doesn't know) and its identity, and explaining that there's a
           | problem, but it doesn't know what the problem is. Somebody
           | will come investigate, because SOLAS _also_ made explicit
           | what is obvious to most mariners, that you should always come
           | help people. The ocean will definitely kill us if it gets a
           | chance, so by the Golden Rule we should all pitch in to save
           | others.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_selective_calling
           | 
           | SOLAS also requires float-release EPIRBS which are beacons
           | that a COSPAS/SARSAT satellite can see from space, and again
           | transmit their identity, so a shore-based emergency response
           | co-ordinator can see e.g. this beacon is registered to a
           | medium sized power yacht named "Example", we don't know
           | what's wrong with it, but its beacon is activated, so either
           | it sank or its in trouble and the beacon was activated
           | manually (or somebody fucked up). The owner's satellite phone
           | doesn't answer, he gives a home number, his wife answered and
           | said he's fishing with two friends, due back this evening.
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | In aviation and maritime transport the implementation of
           | those recommendations and findings are the reason they are
           | among the safest means if transport.
        
           | InCityDreams wrote:
           | In moder boats, maybe. In modern life? Not so much >There
           | must be definite legislation to prevent interference by
           | amateurs, and to secure secrecy of radiograms or wireless
           | messages.
           | 
           | Update that to 'the interwebs', and we are [still] sadly
           | lacking.
           | 
           | /!totc
        
             | United857 wrote:
             | IMO we've done a good job of securing the transport layer,
             | most attacks these days are exploiting data at rest on the
             | client or server.
        
       | dwheeler wrote:
       | What I especially appreciate are the recommendations at the end.
       | The Titanic was a disaster, but the good news is that it was
       | carefully analyzed and changes were made to greatly reduce the
       | impacts of problems in the future. For example, laws were changed
       | changed so that there had to be enough lifeboats for everybody on
       | the ship.
       | 
       | Currently software developers are often not learning from
       | previous security disasters. I hope that will change in the
       | future. There are already efforts to start writing up about
       | important problems, and that will be a start.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | > Currently software developers are often not learning from
         | previous security disasters. I hope that will change in the
         | future.
         | 
         | Current security disasters are typically exclusively financial
         | or social and don't involve the death of those impacted. So, in
         | a certain sense, I hope this doesn't change in the future.
        
         | mgkimsal wrote:
         | > Currently software developers are often not learning from
         | previous security disasters.
         | 
         | Perhaps some developers aren't, but many are. It may also be
         | that their recommendations or efforts are ignored or overruled
         | ("that'll make things too slow/costly/etc").
        
           | Nextgrid wrote:
           | Most importantly, Titanic-like disasters involving numerous
           | losses of life generally prompt regulation or lawsuits at the
           | very least. There is a significant financial incentive not to
           | let accidents happen.
           | 
           | Data breaches or misuse of personal data is not punished (at
           | least not in the US), neither by the government nor by the
           | market. There is no financial incentive there.
        
             | InCityDreams wrote:
             | There is a significant financial incentive not to let
             | [cost-ineffective] accidents happen.
        
         | vegetablepotpie wrote:
         | The regulation to have life boats for all was the trigger for
         | the capsizing of the Eastland in 1915. The addition of
         | lifeboats cased the ship to be too top heavy and it flipped
         | over while boarding. This killed 844 passengers, more than the
         | passengers killed on the Titanic [1].
         | 
         | While it's important to have backups in failure cases. It's
         | important to also consider the impact backups have in
         | contributing to other failure cases.
         | 
         | Another example, people often wonder why airlines do not equip
         | passengers with parachutes in the case of a crash. The answer
         | is that people do not know how to use them, and would likely
         | injure or kill themselves. Furthermore, they wouldn't help in
         | the period of flight where accidents are most likely to happen,
         | which is take off and landing [2].
         | 
         | Disasters are a systems problem. And when looking to mitigate,
         | we need to consider the efficacy of the mitigation and the
         | total influence of mitigation's on contributing to the
         | likelihood of other failure cases.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/eastland-disaster-
         | kil...
         | 
         | [2] https://simpleflying.com/commercial-planes-parachutes/
        
           | NoSorryCannot wrote:
           | More than 1500 people died when Titanic sank.
        
           | tialaramex wrote:
           | Lifeboats in particular were probably the wrong fix, not
           | because of Eastland, which was just an unsafe ship and would
           | doubtless have found some other excuse to kill everybody, but
           | because lifeboat maintenance and testing causes injuries and
           | occasionally deaths, while in the modern era the need to
           | evacuate passengers to lifeboats grows smaller.
           | 
           | I think MAIB (the Marine [edited: this said Maritime but
           | that's wrong] Accident Investigation Branch, a UK government
           | agency) wrote a report about this at one point. In coastal
           | waters particularly the ship's master is realistically never
           | going to encounter a situation where abandoning to lifeboats
           | is the right choice. Fire is the most likely reason to
           | consider it, but modern vessels _should_ be able to contain
           | plausible fires well enough to reach safety, even if as a
           | result the ship is damaged beyond economic repair. Just
           | loading the passengers into lifeboats and putting the
           | lifeboats into the sea is a pretty fraught endeavour, you
           | will probably injure either a passenger or crew member doing
           | it - and that 's before any risk from being in a tiny boat
           | out at sea.
        
           | WastingMyTime89 wrote:
           | Blaming the new regulation for The Eastland capsizing is
           | verging on dishonesty. The boat was poorly designed and had
           | already nearly cap sized in 1904 and 1906. It was bought for
           | a bargain in 1914 because it was known to be unsafe. The
           | addition of the new six lifeboats was only one modification
           | amongst many which were done without due care and merely the
           | straw that broke the camel back.
        
       | arbuge wrote:
       | Page 3 states that the cost of the Titanic, "fully equipped", was
       | 1.5m pounds sterling.
       | 
       | According to:
       | 
       | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/in...
       | 
       | this equates to around 120m pounds sterling today.
       | 
       | It seems to me that there's no way you could construct anything
       | like her for that amount of money today. I wonder what gives.
        
         | PKop wrote:
         | Possibly the true rate of inflation is under-reported
        
           | retcore wrote:
           | In the nineties the UK basket of consumer goods used to
           | calculate inflation suddenly included a well specified PC.
           | 
           | Not only was this PC a vastly disproportionate weight in the
           | new calculation of deemed essential domestic goods, but
           | strangely the specification never was upgraded and so the
           | effect on calculated inflation was strongly negative.
           | 
           | Consider this was masking inflationary signals for well over
           | a decade before ZIRP took over the economy...
        
         | dboreham wrote:
         | Inflation isn't a scalar.
        
           | mwint wrote:
           | Can you elaborate? I'm intrigued, always thought of it as a
           | scalar
        
             | tzs wrote:
             | Different things have different price changes over time.
             | 
             | For example, in 1973 a 2N2222 transistor was $0.79 at Radio
             | Shack.
             | 
             | Today, a single 2N2222 is $1.29 at Jameco. It's $0.95 at
             | AmplifiedParts.com. It's $7 for 100 of them at Amazon.
             | 
             | If we go by the price of 2N2222 transistors and use the
             | price for single units at Jameco we get inflation of 1% per
             | year over the last 50 years.
             | 
             | In 1977 the price of volume I of Apostol's "Calculus" in
             | hardback was around $20. Now it is $153 on Amazon, for the
             | same book. By "same book" I don't just mean hardback. I
             | also mean the same content. It was on the 2nd edition in
             | 1977 and Apostol saw no need for any further revisions.
             | 
             | Using Apostol volume I as our yardstick inflation has been
             | 4.6% per year over the last 45 years.
             | 
             | The most complete way to represent inflation would be as a
             | vector whose components are the inflation for each
             | individual good or service.
             | 
             | To get a scalar for inflation they take another vector that
             | represents how much of each good or service that some
             | hypothetical typical consumer consumes and combine them to
             | get what the overall inflation is for a typical consumer.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | I've never looked into how the pastDate -> currentDate
         | valuations are calculated. I've seen things like "adjusted for
         | inflation" type notes, but is that just for the single number
         | of the total? Do the adjustments take into consideration how
         | much extra labor costs now vs then? Do the adjustments consider
         | raw material price increases, etc?
        
           | cardiffspaceman wrote:
           | You can look up the Wikipedia article on almost any
           | comparable ship and see how much it cost to build. I have
           | done that for several examples, and I would guess that a
           | passenger ship compliant with all current regs and standards
           | and carrying ca. 3500 guests would cost ca. USD$1 billion. So
           | that's roughly the adjustment for inflation. Also adjustment
           | for the new regs and updated regs since Titanic.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | $1B USD is a long way off from the PS1.2m -> PS120m I
             | replied to though. That 1.2->120 just seemed way too low
             | which is why I asked.
        
         | iggldiggl wrote:
         | My regular go-to for getting a feeling for the value of old GBP
         | and USD prices is measuringworth.com, which gives a range of
         | values based on not just the regular consumer price index-based
         | inflation, but also some additional indices, like the evolution
         | of wages and GDP. As measured by the latter two, the cost of
         | the Titanic might have been rather more like somewhere between
         | 600 to 1,500 million pounds:
         | 
         | https://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/ukcompare/relativ...
         | 
         | (Edit: Somewhat funnily, it seems one of the help pages on
         | measuringworth.com actually uses the example of the Titanic:
         | https://www.measuringworth.com/tutorial4.php)
        
         | jessewmc wrote:
         | Actually I bet you wouldn't be too far off. Random googling
         | seems to suggest that the average cruise ship today is under $1
         | billion: https://gangwaze.com/blog/how-much-does-a-cruise-ship-
         | cost
         | 
         | These are _much_ bigger ships than the Titanic, and with much
         | more sophistication, complexity, luxury, etc.
         | 
         | If ships were still as simple today as the Titanic was I
         | imagine 120m pounds would actually be pretty close.
        
         | profile53 wrote:
         | Labor laws, mostly.
        
           | ClumsyPilot wrote:
           | like how if someone looses a hand in your factory, they get
           | compensation?
        
             | profile53 wrote:
             | Yeah, or the fact that hard hats are required, people are
             | required to be paid more than 50 cents an hour, you can't
             | force 1 employee to work 80 hours a week continuously, etc.
             | All of that adds to costs. For good reason, don't get me
             | wrong, but the cost of labor in the western world has
             | exploded over the last 100 years.
        
       | billfor wrote:
       | "Woman and children first", but especially first class :-)
        
       | thamer wrote:
       | The report mentions the ship making a C.Q.D. call, which I wasn't
       | familiar with.
       | 
       | The name comes from the earlier telegraph "CQ" call for alerts,
       | named after the French word "securite", abbreviated as "secu"
       | which is how the letters C and Q are pronounced in French. "D" is
       | added to indicate distress. Sending a CQD call means sending the
       | letters C,Q,D in Morse code; this practice was later supplanted
       | by SOS.
       | 
       | Wikipedia has a page with more information:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CQD. It mentions the Titanic
       | disaster: "Harold Bride, the junior radio operator, suggested
       | using SOS, saying half-jokingly that it might be his last chance
       | to use the new code."
        
       | varenc wrote:
       | You can find the full report, along with the appendices with the
       | list of crew and passengers, here:
       | https://books.google.com/books?id=twnY7_eFDuQC&pg=PA7287&lpg...
       | 
       | The tables are also more nicely formatted in this version. And
       | Google has kindly performed OCR as well.
       | 
       | You can download a PDF of the entire 1912 congressional record,
       | of which report is a small part, here:
       | https://books.google.com/books/download/Congressional_Record...
        
       | jasonhansel wrote:
       | A classic case of correlated failures. If you have multiple
       | redundant systems, but anything that damages one system is _also_
       | likely going to damage others, then a failure is much more
       | probable than you would expect based on the level of redundancy.
       | 
       | In this case the redundant systems were the watertight
       | compartments. The engineers thought the ship wouldn't sink
       | because it was unlikely for _five_ of them to fail at the same
       | time. But they forgot just how likely it was that any incident
       | (e.g. an iceberg collision) that damaged one compartment would
       | likely also damage many others.
        
         | Comevius wrote:
         | I mean the Titanic suffered a 100 meters long side-swipe
         | damage, no redundancy could account for that. No one thought
         | that the Titanic was unsinkable, it's just that no one thought
         | that anyone would smash the ship against an iceberg at that
         | speed, because why would they. Unfortunately the clear,
         | moonless sky effectively camouflaged the iceberg due to the low
         | contrast and false horizon. Even ships today would maintain a
         | lower speed at night when needed despite having a radar and
         | access to satellite images, but the Titanic had to cross the
         | ocean faster than the Olympic did before.
        
           | jasonhansel wrote:
           | Yeah, no redundancy could account for it, which is why
           | confident predictions that the Titanic was uniquely unlikely
           | to sink due to the presence of redundant systems were so
           | ridiculous.
           | 
           | Keep that in mind next time you think your system is ultra-
           | reliable because you have 50 instances of every service, but
           | they're all running in us-east-1.
        
         | togs wrote:
         | So in other words, redundancy requires subsystems' Pr(failure)
         | to be independent of each other.
        
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