[HN Gopher] Ask HN: Should I be panicking about jobs in Europe?
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Ask HN: Should I be panicking about jobs in Europe?
I contract with a lot of European game studios. I've noticed many
contracts were terminated suddenly including my retainers for cost
reasons. Is the energy crisis that bad ? Are multiple industries
affected right now or is it just planning ?
Author : norwalkbear
Score : 77 points
Date : 2022-09-07 20:38 UTC (2 hours ago)
| luis02lopez wrote:
| I work for a EU company from South America. I have vast
| experience working for USA and I can tell you that I have old
| colleagues from USA (living in USA) being laid off. There are
| also lay offs in EU, and the economy in the country I live is a
| bit under pressure. This is global.
|
| Still, there is a lot of jobs, most of the people being laid off
| already have a job. I think we all are going to recover from this
| but RU.
| PaulHoule wrote:
| It's pretty bad, especially in the UK since they are facing the
| energy crisis and the consequences of brexit.
| mindcrash wrote:
| Yes, it's starting to get bad. As a example a huge producer of
| automotive parts in Germany went bankrupt today. 4000+ people
| lost their jobs instantly.
|
| Nord Stream 1 has been shut down indefinitely and Germany
| requires it to keep their economy, heat and power supply going so
| lots more companies will follow.
|
| My family is going to stock up on firewood for our fireplace
| soon, so at least the house will not be cold come november-
| december when the Netherlands will run out of their gas supply in
| just about 2 weeks time tops.
| djbusby wrote:
| Nov-Feb friend, get more wood.
| downrightmike wrote:
| Might be worth getting creative going into fall harvest:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZqaW-gdXxE
| weinzierl wrote:
| > As a example a huge producer of automotive parts in Germany
| went bankrupt today. 4000+ people lost their jobs instantly.
|
| Could not find any news about that. Which company do you mean?
| martin_a wrote:
| It's Dr. Schneider [1]. Never heard about them until now.
|
| [1] https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/kronach-kronach-
| neuses-au...
| fxtentacle wrote:
| But
|
| a) they are not bankrupt yet, they merely filed for
| government protection while they reorganize
|
| and
|
| b) it's only 2000 jobs
| martin_a wrote:
| Yes, probably just shrinking themselves to a more healthy
| state. Good "chance" to do so right now.
| jonas21 wrote:
| > they merely filed for government protection while they
| reorganize
|
| That's what Chapter 11 bankruptcy is in the US - I assume
| Germany has an equivalent.
| sydd wrote:
| I would not be so worried. While the situation is not so rosy,
| Nordstream's closing will be compensated by using less energy
| generally (e.g. not heating up gov buildings, lots of people
| working from home etc.) and from dozens of other sources
| (importing more LNG, letting nuclear plants run more, firing up
| coal powered plants etc)
|
| Russians are very good as sowing discord and creating panic
| among the population, but if you look at the facts things are
| not so bleak.
|
| - If closing down Nordstream would really lead to the collapse
| of the German economy then the EU would have lifted the
| sanctions. While they can accept some hardships to beat Russia,
| they would not kill their economy to do so.
|
| - Just look at the gas futures price in the EU:
| https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...
| Since the full closure of Nordstream gas prices have actually
| gone down showing that the gas market has already priced the
| closure, and as time will pass it will go down even more (since
| people will see that we have enough gas & Putin's threats are
| taken less and less seriously mostly because he has run out of
| things to threaten with)
|
| So dont panic and trust Western leaders a bit more.
| jemmyw wrote:
| Thanks, that's a much calmer balanced view.
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4&t=3574s this vid
| has a great and lengthy analysis on the economic situation in
| Europe. Basically, Europe and Germany will be fine because
| they can afford the burden for awhile and may even still grow
| economically. Russia has stabilised their economy for the
| moment with drastic intervention, but they are time limited.
| triyambakam wrote:
| yread wrote:
| Another reason not to panic is that the Dutch have a massive
| gas field and choose to use it only 10% (2.7B m3/year out of
| 25B m3/year, about 60% of their consumption). Surely, if the
| situation was dire they would max out their wells first,
| (they say it would produce small earthquakes and 15000 houses
| would be in danger but that's a small price to pay)
| mattnewport wrote:
| > and trust Western leaders a bit more.
|
| What have Western leaders done in the last 20+ years to earn
| such trust?
| k__ wrote:
| Being sustainably successful for hundreds of years?
|
| I mean, China is the only successful country that isn't
| western, not even in spirit (like India, Japan, or Korea)
| and their run seems coming to an end lately, with all their
| debtors defaulting.
| k__ wrote:
| This.
|
| If Germany loves one thing, it's being richer than the rest
| of Europe. They just throwing their weight around.
| neural_thing wrote:
| Another interpretation is that the futures are pricing in
| price controls.
| rr888 wrote:
| Its time to go back to the office and be nice to the boss again.
| :)
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| Didn't tech got a major boost in COVID?
|
| Since the rates were hiked, they are also the biggest victims. I
| doubt this has much to do with the energy and more with the
| recession.
| yreg wrote:
| Mildly related question: European tech workers, what are you
| doing with your (monthly) savings?
|
| Hoarding euros? Converting to USD? $SPY? Gold? The same as
| always?
| IMTDb wrote:
| Diversified stocks and bonds, same as always. When it goes up,
| you get return on what you have already invested so far. When
| it goes down, you are buying at a discount. I am not trying to
| time the market, but create some capital for my retirement in
| 30 years, so whatever happens in the next 5/10 years is mostly
| less irrelevant. There have always been crisis, and there will
| be others.
| aliqot wrote:
| This is called Dollar Cost Averaging here.
| newaccount2021 wrote:
| user_named wrote:
| All in China equities
| cm2012 wrote:
| China is on the verge of recession themselves
| odiroot wrote:
| Probably makes sense to pay off your mortgage if you have one.
| bgorman wrote:
| Why would you do this in a time of high inflation?
| h4waii wrote:
| Ideally, so you have a place to live, regardless of the
| outcomes and influences of inflation et al.
|
| Sure, buying real estate is seen as an investment, but it's
| also a spot to live and to keep all stuff to help or hedge
| your enjoyment of life.
|
| Some people just want to live, debt free, and be left
| alone.
| bluedino wrote:
| Crypto!
| martin_a wrote:
| > The same as always?
|
| This. Yes, there's about 8% inflation in Germany but for people
| with higher incomes, it's not that bad (yet). My ETFs/stock
| portfolio has even gone up after a ditch when the war started,
| no real need to worry.
| hankchinaski wrote:
| Long SPY and as a consequence USD.
| dejung wrote:
| It's a general recession, potentially leading into a depression.
| Nobody knows how bad it will get! We haven't yet seen the effect
| in the US but if the economy tanks here it will triple the effect
| on Europe with all its current problems.
| dimensionc132 wrote:
| yes
|
| prepare for the AI/robot apocalypse
| readonthegoapp wrote:
| US companies are cutting, too, and we don't have the energy
| problems y'all have -- so I'm actually surprised Europe is not
| cutting more already.
|
| Yes, panic.
| kome wrote:
| perhaps it's time to stop follow idiotic American war policies,
| and look as our interest as Europeans. just saying...
| satyrnein wrote:
| What does this mean? Lift sanctions on Russia?
| tootie wrote:
| Nah. Some sectors are going through turmoil and churn, but
| employment is still very strong.
| yakak wrote:
| Yeah, though I think tech is going to be more resilient to
| pressures toward recession and wage stagnation to the extent
| that it relates to cost cutting (or the perception of cost
| cutting) via automation, etc. I could see the game industry
| being a major loser in that turmoil as it both loses income in
| recessions and has to compete with rising wages in disruptive
| IT.
| lmarcos wrote:
| Maybe just for contractors? Or maybe is it just the game
| industry? I switched jobs recently and had few good offers I left
| behind.
| cookiengineer wrote:
| Most companies that relied on "cheap gas supplies" for heat
| generation are affected. Every manufacturing process that needs a
| high temperature oven for melting metal, for example, is highly
| affected by the gas supply. Due to gazprom basically being used
| as an economic weapon of Russia right now, that's not gonna
| change soon.
|
| The CDU sold us out to Russia, and it's not gonna change
| immediately. What we can do now is plan accordingly, and try to
| move to solar power as soon as possible. And by that I mean,
| yesterday.
|
| Bills exploded for private households, social media shows
| regularly pictures of ridiculous bills like 1600EUR+ for a month
| of heat for a simple family household. That's where it's at right
| now. Lots of people laugh or mock at the plus of 18EUR/month for
| Kindergeld that you can now get, because it's basically worthless
| in comparison.
|
| Prepare yourselves, this is going to be a war of cyber and
| energy. In my personal opinion it's inevitable, because Putin and
| his propaganda of the supposed "growing Nazism in Central Europe"
| has been going on for decades after the revolution attempt of the
| opposition. It's only a matter of time until Putin wants a
| strategically easier-to-defend Moscow, because the mountains in
| Poland and Finland sure look juicy to him.
|
| Always keep in mind: Whoever controls the oil and gas supply,
| controls the planet economically. The reason for the invasion of
| the North-East Ukraine was the oil fields, and the independence
| of oil supply for Europe was too high a risk for Putin's
| strategical control over the European Union.
| thro388 wrote:
| Maybe it is just Germans own stupidity. 3 nuclear power plants
| are going to be shutdown this January!
| martin_a wrote:
| That you created a throwaway account to repeat this nonsense
| speaks for itself.
| iso1631 wrote:
| It's a couple of days late, but it wasn't until Sep 5th
| that they announced 2 of the 3 planned for closure on Dec
| 31st would be run for an extra 3 months. Still closing
| Emsland though, at least according to wikipedia
|
| https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-09/zwei-
| atomkraftwerke-s...
| martin_a wrote:
| Just so much is fucked up about that whole situation.
|
| 1. Did nobody think about that nuclear plants can't be
| switched on and off like nothing?
|
| 2. They want them in standby because they fear that
| north-south energy transport could be overloaded. Well,
| let's have some blackouts in Bavaria then, maybe they'll
| start cooperating with the rest of the country then.
|
| 3. Nuclear plants can't really substitute what might be
| missing in gas, if I remember correctly.
|
| 4. With all the half-assed things that are happening in
| Germany, let's just do ONE thing consequently and stop
| using nuclear power. It will be fine if it isn't already.
| _dain_ wrote:
| It's a fact.
| martin_a wrote:
| What exactly? That three nuclear power plants are being
| shut down by the end of the year? Yes, that's a fact.
| mciancia wrote:
| How do you want to move Europe to solar power? Do we have any
| reasonable capability of storing excess power from summer till
| winter? Why not nuclear?
| martin_a wrote:
| > Why not nuclear?
|
| - Current reactors are EOL
|
| - No new reactors have been built since ages, although
| political constellations might even have been in favor to do
| so
|
| - No solution for permanent storage of nuclear waste
|
| Nuclear power is no solution at all.
| zakk wrote:
| Please, please, please stop with the waste management
| taking point!
|
| There are super-safe and rather cheap ways of treating and
| storing nuclear waste!
|
| It's essentially a scaremongering talking point.
| martin_a wrote:
| Which ways? Dumping them in some salt mines as we have
| done for the last 50 years? There is not a single "super-
| safe" and "cheap" way for Germany.
| zakk wrote:
| Nuclear wastes are incredibly small, the whole energy you
| would need in your life would fill a soda can of wastes,
| if only nuclear was used.
|
| Geological repositories are an excellent solution. Those
| place are geologically stable, and can contain thousand
| of years of wastes. It's not very expensive to collect
| wastes there, as well!
| iso1631 wrote:
| Can still generate a hell of a lot of electricity from Solar
| in winter, and offshore wind, and of course gas isn't going
| away soon.
| Panzer04 wrote:
| Yes, because telling your major customer that you'll screw them
| completely at will is so good for business.
|
| Whatever Putin's reason for the war, at this point any attempt
| to use it for control has spectacularly backfired.
| epolanski wrote:
| > to gazprom basically being used as an economic weapon of
| Russia
|
| So after we funded Ukraine's war, sanctioned Russia into
| oblivion, froze hundreds of billions $ of their money, forced
| our companies to leave their market, and even seized their
| belongings it's them weaponizing assets?
|
| I'm all for the sanctions and support, but making Russia the
| bad guy for our economic crisis because they are retaliating
| sanctions is really biased. It's not a weapon, it's a trade and
| they leave money on the table everyday. Lots of money.
| nl wrote:
| This is the first time I've ever heard a Russia apologist
| even try to call it "Ukraine's war". Almost like it's a
| surprise Ukraine fought back when Russia invaded.
|
| Even Putin was honest enough to call it an invasion and
| limited his lies to attempts to justify it.
|
| Yes retaliation for sanctions can be expected. But Russia is
| still the bad actor here.
| epolanski wrote:
| Call a Russia apologist someone else.
|
| As stated, I support both supporting Ukraine and the
| sanctions.
|
| That doesn't make our policy makers any less ridiculous and
| short sighted in their expectations.
| Tade0 wrote:
| This isn't the first time they weaponized their assets - just
| the first time against the west.
|
| Countries neighbouring Russia dealt with similar issues
| multiple times already.
| themitigating wrote:
| "Both sides both sides"
|
| Russia is the bad guy for both the war and their reaction to
| the sanctions. Your comment is like saying "don't get mad at
| a criminal for shooting at the police chasing him".
| paganel wrote:
| > at the police chasing him"
|
| Just so that we're clear, calling the West as "the police"
| as you do with your analogy just reinforces Russia's claim
| that we now live in a unipolar world, of which the US is
| the policeman (hence Russia's desire to split it all into a
| multi-polar world, no police chasing bad guys without
| international due-process there).
| epolanski wrote:
| It's not whataboutism.
|
| It's ridiculous to me we went all in on sanctions
| pretending they would bend over and keep doing business
| with us, but only on things we want them to, after we deny
| them machinery, computers, software, cars and steal/freeze
| their assets.
|
| Your analogy doesn't work, we aren't police and they are
| not shooting, they quit doing business and decided they are
| okay without our money.
| bilvar wrote:
| Where were EUs sanctions when the "police" was massacring
| people all over the Middle East multiple times?
| topher6345 wrote:
| Russian could end the sanctions by choosing to withdraw their
| invasion. Withdrawing is the win/win for everyone.
| gdy wrote:
| Or West could've pressured the Ukraine into actually
| complying with the Minsk agreement and we wouldn't be
| having this horrendous war at all. Why didn't they?
| bilvar wrote:
| This. It's quite saddening to realise Western people are as
| brainwashed by govts and media as much as the Russians are.
| mkl95 wrote:
| I joined a VC-backed company a few months ago. Back then there
| was an air of confidence in the team. Now I'm getting mixed
| signals from management and they seem low key insecure. Turnover
| is slowly but noticeably increasing.
|
| I will apply Occam's razor here - investors don't want to gamble
| their money on crappy software. SaaS vendors were playing on easy
| mode before 2022, but it's over for obvious reasons.
|
| If you want to succeed, it's time to increase that engineering
| budget and let your sales people sell something that actually
| works.
| JacKTrocinskI wrote:
| Are you in a low cost or high cost location?
|
| I would expect job cuts in high cost locations to come first.
| themitigating wrote:
| "When recessions hit, firms lay off young and low-income
| workers first"
|
| Why make a guess when data already exists?
|
| https://equitablegrowth.org/the-most-exposed-workers-in-the-...
| jethronethro wrote:
| Panicking? No. But you should be seriously considering a Plan B
| and even a Plan C and a Plan D.
|
| Regardless, panicking won't change the situation. Taking them
| time to step back, look at your other options, and proceed calmly
| (though with a sense of urgency) is a better way to go.
| theshrike79 wrote:
| That's the point of having contractors. EU doesn't have at-will
| employment and firing people is time-consuming and expensive.
|
| You can drop contractors on a whim. And it seems that some
| studios are doing that.
|
| At least mobile game studios are doing just fine, their main
| customers (whales) are in the US anyway.
| fxtentacle wrote:
| game studios (== recreational non-essential spending) are most
| likely affected first. Prepare for increased job competition and
| stagnating wages in general.
|
| But panick? not unless you live in the UK. I'd expect mainland EU
| to continue almost as usual, with maybe a few high-energy
| factories shutting down. But since most of the jobs are service
| sector anyway, I wouldn't worry too much.
|
| I heard the news that in Germany a car part supplier started
| bankruptcy proceedings. But that's only 2000 jobs out of 84
| million people. And all those coal and steel factories were only
| very few jobs, too.
| Accacin wrote:
| So, as I'm in the UK.. Why should I be panicking?
|
| Aside from ridiculous increases in energy costs, it's really
| not feeling any different.
| bluedino wrote:
| Weren't video games one of the "recession-proof" industries?
| bb123 wrote:
| Why panic if you're in the UK? They're less exposed to Russian
| gas than continental Europe.
| Barrin92 wrote:
| they have virtually no storage capacity and are highly
| reliant on gas for heating and electricity generation, more
| so than the continent. Gas prices are global so it doesn't
| matter whether your gas is Russian or not. The UK government
| is already preparing to spend almost 200 billion on
| stabilizing prices. (that's more than the NHS and military
| combined).
| jodrellblank wrote:
| https://uk.news.yahoo.com/energy-crisis-why-uk-
| worst-1036542...
| brianmcc wrote:
| You'd think. But UK is less well governed: among other things
| Brexit has brought its own special brand of GDP inhibition.
|
| https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/19/energy/energy-prices-
| uk-e...
|
| _As wholesale costs ballooned last year, 31 smaller UK
| energy companies -- who traditionally offered competitive
| prices -- went bust, forcing millions of customers onto the
| books of bigger suppliers, and to pay higher bills._
|
| _The way the British government designed the energy market
| made this more likely, Henning Gloystein, director of energy,
| climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNN Business._
| nathanaldensr wrote:
| You ain't seen nothin' yet.
| yabatopia wrote:
| The energy crisis is pretty bad right now, with no end in sight,
| for now. But that's only a short term problem. It's just a minor
| bump.
|
| The demographic trend is what it is: baby boomers are retiring en
| masse and the influx of a new qualified employees is simply too
| low. Unemployment remains low. Jobs will be fine.
| NKosmatos wrote:
| We have a very difficult winter ahead of us, especially here in
| Europe. Inflation is on the rise, energy prices are skyrocketing,
| wages are almost stationary and people are worried about the
| future. Im afraid that the recession/depression is coming...
| shubb wrote:
| However, when it comes to contracts with european companies, it
| has more to do with fundraising. Energy and even margins are
| not hitting game studios and SaS products, but it is harder to
| close funding rounds.
|
| Why? Because asset prices in europe are down hard, and the
| exiting holders are reluctant to accept dilution by taking
| adequate funding now. The new investors would get a better
| price than them and erode their share of the company
| excessively, so they'd rather push management to raise less,
| cut costs, and try to limp through to better times.
|
| The other side of this is that venture firms / PE had an
| amazing 2021, so now they have loads of cash and not many
| opportunities. They can hold off for a while but the money
| needs to be committed before this dip is realistically over.
| fffrantz wrote:
| It's not only the energy crisis, it's the whole economic downturn
| that's hitting every sector that we should be worrying about.
| Energy is just a mean to an end, and it affects most European
| industries, making everything more expensive. We should all be
| prepared for a rough 12-18 months, as we've only seen the tip of
| the iceberg so far.
| spraveenitpro wrote:
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