[HN Gopher] The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth (202...
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       The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth (2021) [pdf]
        
       Author : simonpure
       Score  : 57 points
       Date   : 2022-08-28 13:20 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (tupa.gtk.fi)
 (TXT) w3m dump (tupa.gtk.fi)
        
       | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
       | There's a 15 minute YouTube presentation of the 72-page doc (by
       | the author): https://youtu.be/JRGVqBScBRE
        
       | jwie wrote:
       | I suppose we'll have to mine asteroids for these minerals.
       | Probably better get back on that "space" thing.
        
         | jeffreyrogers wrote:
         | There are probably economically exploitable deposits of most of
         | these minerals left, but the current business environment
         | disincentivizes exploration and the political situation in many
         | of the countries that have lots of mineral resources makes big
         | projects hard to fund/manage.
        
         | paulryanrogers wrote:
         | Right, we cannot sustainably manage the planet upon which we
         | evolved, so the next step is deplete what remains seeking
         | shelter in an environment hostile to life.
        
       | nickpinkston wrote:
       | First: The "Limits to Growth" language here is hyperbolic, and
       | this report was commissioned by (and this PDF is hosted on the
       | site of) a green materials/mining agency* GTK that has a
       | "Circular Economy" project about material reuse. So this is
       | clearly coming from a perspective of advocacy and economic
       | interest.
       | 
       | Second: If you actually read the paper, they freely admit that
       | this isn't about minerals "running out", but more that they're
       | becoming harder to extract - especially regarding more money /
       | energy / water.
       | 
       | The classic issue with this is that these models are highly
       | sensitive to technological change, which is in turn driven by the
       | economic realities involved. We've all seen what chips, PV
       | panels, etc. when these all align.
       | 
       | To wit, note that while there is a long analysis of how current
       | mining practice is getting harder, there is no discussion of the
       | pace of innovation in mining tech and the trends by which it
       | would be adopted.
       | 
       | An example of one tech that addresses their copper ore grade
       | issue is biomining [1], which is using microorganisms to process
       | the ore. This isn't widespread yet, but is in development because
       | the industry already knows this is a problem.
       | 
       | The mining industry and commodities more broadly actually suffer
       | from boom and bust cycles with respect to their CapEx invested
       | and payback period - ie everyone frantically fracks for gas until
       | the price goes through the floor and they all go bankrupt. So
       | resource extraction is more about economic viability than
       | technical constraints like the author suggests.
       | 
       | TL;DR: We're not in danger of long-term shortages of minerals,
       | just shocks like we're having with oil, but these pose no danger
       | to encountering any "limits to growth" anytime soon.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomining
       | 
       | * Corrected from "company" from comment below.
        
         | ulrashida wrote:
         | All credit to my colleagues in academia, but the pace of
         | technological change in mining is often wildly overstated by
         | mining companies as an attempt to attract investors, greenwash,
         | or genuine misunderstanding of the underlying technology.
         | 
         | Most notably, many of the newer techs encounter meaningful
         | difficulties as they attempt to scale. Nearly all of the
         | advances in current mining have been either driving economies
         | of scale (larger trucks, larger plants, block caving
         | undergrounds) or sweating efficiencies (electronic detonators,
         | computer-assisted monitoring and design, reprocessing
         | tailings). One of the great things about mining is the ability
         | to simultaneously accept there is often lots of free cash flow
         | around to invest in the next great thing while acknowledging
         | the brutal realities that all the tech in the world won't help
         | if you don't have a matching orebody.
         | 
         | While the author does a messy job of their pitch, it's
         | indisputable that the overall quality and size of deposits is
         | going down over time. For many of us in the industry, we know
         | that the problem is not going to be running out but rather is
         | society able to handle increasingly frequent supply/demand
         | shocks without losing the collective plot. We already see a bit
         | of this tension now: for every bio-mining initiative we have
         | another set of lunatics who are proposing to "mine" sea beds.
         | 
         | There are interesting times ahead.
        
           | nickpinkston wrote:
           | Yea, I'm not denying the quality of deposits are down, costs
           | of processing are up, or that it's hard to make the tech
           | work. I'm just saying that we haven't seen the dire need that
           | would cause big changes because the industry's unique R&D and
           | CapEx requirements to change. Dire = severally decreased
           | production of vital end products because of mineral
           | costs/shortages (ie the 1970's oil crisis).
           | 
           | Generally, there are known technologies already past the
           | prototype stages just waiting for the prices and other
           | factors to make them viable, and once they are they then ride
           | the experience curve to better productivity.
           | 
           | Re: supply/demand shocks - Interestingly, this is where the
           | state can have a good roll in helping smooth these out. For
           | instance, Biden's recent bill included guaranteed oil/gas
           | purchases that the oil industry needed so they can justify
           | running their refineries on with uncertain future demand,
           | with the USG taking the risk on via filling the Strategic
           | Petroleum Reserve with the excess. [1]
           | 
           | I'm reacting to an effect that this chart [2] highlights
           | where academia / industry is being overly conservative in
           | their predictions. In this case, every year they predicted PV
           | was about to run out of steam, when it was actually growing
           | exponentially. I think this paper is doing the same thing by
           | ignoring tech development increases in its analysis.
           | 
           | Are you aware of any systematic study of new mining tech
           | development, economics, etc. that has a thorough analysis of
           | this? This isn't my field. I'm in manufacturing, but follow
           | the space because it's adjacent and has some things in
           | common, so I'd be interested to get your take / sources.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-gas-prices-energy-
           | oil-...
           | 
           | [2] https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-
           | proj...
        
             | paulryanrogers wrote:
             | Maybe we could tap the breaks on extraction from virgin
             | deposits while we work out how to more sustainably use
             | what's already been extracted?
             | 
             | Or we could just keep plunging headlong into a future where
             | it takes 2 barrels of oil to produce 1.
        
         | Lasokki wrote:
         | A small correction: GTK, or Geological Survey of Finland, is a
         | public research agency operating under the Ministry of Economic
         | Affairs and Employment.
         | 
         | https://www.gtk.fi/en/this-is-gtk/
        
           | nickpinkston wrote:
           | Thank you!
        
       | Vox_Leone wrote:
       | A superb work that encapsulates the most pressing problems of the
       | current times: the interplay between sustainability and the
       | pressure for economic growth. Few issues are as consequential as
       | these nowadays. Thanks for sharing.
        
       | halffaday wrote:
       | I don't see any concerns not addressed by markets. If iron
       | becomes expensive to extract, it becomes expensive to buy, and
       | people use it carefully. At one point unused cabins were burned
       | down to salvage the nails.
       | 
       | I just don't understand the mindset of the humble author that the
       | rubes are too stupid to modify prices or behavior, so they will
       | just die en masse unless some heroic NGO gets enough donations to
       | save them.
        
       | ZeroGravitas wrote:
       | I watched this guy's Youtube video and think he's a kook, but
       | interested in reading this to see what he says.
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | There are multiple questionable assumptions but I'll focus on
         | one early one.
         | 
         | "There is a current paradigm to phase out fossil fuels and all
         | associated infrastructure. This will require an unprecedented
         | volume of metals of all kinds. In particular, technology
         | metals. Technology metals are the building materials needed to
         | manufacture much of current state-of-the-art technology.
         | Technology metals could include: Be, B, Sc, V, Ga, Ge, Se, Sr,
         | Y, Zr, In, Te, Cs, Ba, La, Hf, Ta, Os, Tl, Li, Ru, W, Cd, Hg,
         | Sb, Ir, Mo and Mg."
         | 
         | This appears to be a random selection of metals, presented
         | without justification. Nothing about transitioning away from
         | fossil energy requires more mercury, osmium, strontium, barium,
         | or thallium. They're not needed in wind turbines, batteries,
         | solar cells, nuclear reactors, electric motors, electrolyzers,
         | power electronics, or fuel cells. Did the author actually have
         | other energy-transition-critical applications in mind or is he
         | just trying to dazzle with quantity?
        
           | HWR_14 wrote:
           | > They're not needed in wind turbines, batteries, solar
           | cells, nuclear reactors, electric motors, electrolyzers,
           | power electronics, or fuel cells
           | 
           | Except they are used in the production the semiconductors
           | that control EVs, battery charging, etc. It's also used in
           | the production of batteries. You're supposed to recycle your
           | AA batteries, for instance, because of the mercuric-oxide.
        
             | philipkglass wrote:
             | _Except they are used in the production the semiconductors
             | that control EVs, battery charging, etc._
             | 
             | What is thallium needed for in semiconductor manufacturing?
             | I tried searching Google Scholar and didn't turn up
             | anything relevant. I've never seen thallium mentioned
             | alongside semiconductor production in chemistry handbooks
             | or chemical engineering encyclopedias either.
             | 
             | Global thallium production declined from 15,000 kilograms
             | in 1994 [1] to less than 8,000 kilograms in 2018 [2] even
             | as semiconductor production volumes increased enormously,
             | so I am skeptical that thallium is needed for semiconductor
             | production.
             | 
             | Mercury is banned in alkaline batteries in the US since
             | 1996: https://www.epa.gov/mercury/mercury-batteries
             | 
             | Panasonic claims that the battery mercury ban is worldwide
             | now (and they should know), but unfortunately does not cite
             | the relevant legislation: https://www.panasonic-
             | batteries.com/en/news/mercury-batterie...
             | 
             | [1] USGS mineral commodity summaries, "thallium", 1996:
             | https://d9-wret.s3.us-
             | west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/...
             | 
             | [2] USGS mineral commodity summaries, "thallium", 2018:
             | https://d9-wret.s3-us-
             | west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/...
        
         | ZeroGravitas wrote:
         | His heart seems in the right place, probably just been
         | consuming too much of the wrong type of news leaving him with
         | some very odd starting points.
         | 
         | Key errors:
         | 
         | * thinking ERoEI is a thing that matters (sub-error, thinking
         | fossil fuels do better on this score if it did matter)
         | https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/examining-the-l...
         | 
         | * following on from the above, expecting energy prices to rise
         | long term as a result of this
         | 
         | * a weird assumption that mining requires fossil fuels (which
         | if true, would make the above thing worse, if it was true,
         | which it isn't) https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-
         | mining/our-in...
         | 
         | * thinking no-one else has thought of this and the whole net-
         | zero thing is just some EU beaurocrats half-baked idea.
         | 
         | His ideas for entirely replacing capitalism with something
         | based on resource scarcity are interesting though.
        
           | brutusborn wrote:
           | Why doesn't ERoEI matter?
           | 
           | And I think it's unfair so say he assumes mining requirs
           | fossil fuels, he just highlights how dependant mining is on
           | fossil fuels _now_ and for the forseeable future.
           | 
           | Also, I had to check about how mining electrification is
           | going, and I was pleasantly surprised to find a lot of
           | electric mining vehicles currently available!
           | https://www.epiroc.com/en-in/products/loaders-and-
           | trucks/ele...
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | It doesn't matter because it doesn't account for the
             | relative abundance of the inputs. Read the article.
             | 
             | An EROI of 19 to 1 just means 5% of the total energy will
             | be spent on extracting the energy, it doesn't tell you how
             | much total energy there is and how fast you can extract it.
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | The basic problem with ERoEI is that the number you get
             | depends dramatically on how rigorous your calculation is,
             | and applying the same amount of rigor on two different
             | sources doesn't mean that they're off by the same amount.
             | Fossil fuels have tons of hidden externalities, so they
             | will usually look way better at a glance, but that doesn't
             | necessarily mean anything.
        
             | ZeroGravitas wrote:
             | I linked an intro level article on why ERoEI is silly, but
             | this one goes into more depth.
             | 
             | "ERoEI is Unimportant and is being used incorrectly"
             | 
             | https://bountifulenergy.blogspot.com/2016/06/eroei-is-
             | unimpo...
             | 
             | > In this article I will show that ERoEI is unimportant by
             | itself. It usually does not matter if ERoEI is increasing
             | or decreasing. ERoEI provides no guidance about which
             | sources of energy we should pursue, nor does it offer any
             | guidance about how much net energy will be available to us
             | in the future. By itself, ERoEI is a useless figure, unless
             | it is lower than 1, which it almost never is. Although
             | different sources of energy (such as coal or solar PV) have
             | different ERoEI ratios, this means nothing important.
             | 
             | Also: Why renewables have a higher eroei
             | 
             | https://bountifulenergy.blogspot.com/2014/07/renewables-
             | have...
             | 
             | > Renewables have ERoEI ratios which are generally
             | comparable to, or higher than, fossil fuels. Although peak
             | oilers reach a different conclusion, that is because they
             | are carrying out the calculation incorrectly. They are
             | ignoring or not including massive waste heat losses
             | (generally 60% or more) from combustion engines which
             | drastically reduces the ERoEI of fossil fuels. Those waste
             | heat losses provide no energy services to society, and
             | should be counted as losses, but are wrongly counted as
             | "energy returns" by peak oilers. Furthermore, peak oilers
             | are ignoring or not counting other large energy losses of
             | fossil fuels. Those omissions exaggerate the ERoEI of
             | fossil fuels relative to renewables. When the calculation
             | is carried out correctly, renewables have higher ERoEI
             | ratios than fossil fuels.
        
         | fallingfrog wrote:
         | He's a senior researcher at the Geological Survey of Finland..
         | His conclusions may or may not be correct, but surely "kook" is
         | unfair.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | It's possible, some might even say easy, to be both an
           | academic and a kook, particularly so when you dive into areas
           | that aren't your speciality and are 'political' like
           | evolution, or climate change.
           | 
           | I'm sure he knows lots about mining, but he has a Fox News
           | level of understanding about renewables.
        
           | scottLobster wrote:
           | Plenty of academics fall into the category of "unbalanced".
           | That being they're amazing at one hyper-specialization that
           | gives them a huge ego, and then they assume they're equally
           | amazing at everything else and end up making complete fools
           | of themselves. I wouldn't presume anything based solely on a
           | credential. Intelligence is not correlated with wisdom or
           | humility.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | I mean, if they can't 1 out of 5 dentists to recommend
           | brushing your teeth, surely there can be kooks in academia.
        
       | yazzku wrote:
       | This is a great report, thanks for sharing.
        
       | mikewarot wrote:
       | I don't dispute the validity of the claims made at all, however I
       | believe strongly that failing global transport networks and
       | population crashes are going to swamp these effects in terms of
       | our day to day existence, _and make it far worse._
       | 
       | The security that allowed global transport of goods across the
       | "free world" was a bribe offered by the United States to buy
       | compliance from other nations for its security policies against
       | the Soviet Union. We're backing away from those promises now that
       | the cold war was won.
       | 
       | The urbanization of the world has had some long term
       | consequences, as people move into urban areas, the have fewer
       | children, leading to many populations not having sufficient
       | numbers of children and younger people entering the population
       | pyramid to support those older than themselves. China has a real
       | problem they can't solve in this regard.
       | 
       | Deglobalization has begun, supply chains that rely on cheap
       | reliable trans-national shipping are unsustainable, and need to
       | be replaced. This compounds the effects highlighted in the
       | original posting. _It 's not pessimistic enough!_
        
       | tuatoru wrote:
       | From the abstract: "Most minerals required for the renewable
       | energy transition have not been mined in bulk quantities before.
       | Many of the technology metals already have primary resource
       | mining supply risks.."
       | 
       | Not true. For a PV and storage based economy we need plastics,
       | some lead and barium for perovskites, iron and aluminum for
       | structures and machinery. Some sodium also. Some copper would be
       | helpful for wiring. Storage can be iron-based, sodium-based,
       | aluminum based or lithium based, as at present.
       | 
       | Apart from perhaps barium (for which there are many substitutes,
       | some possibly better), none of these are rare or difficult to
       | mine, and all are mined in large quantities.
       | 
       | The materials we need most of are already being mined in
       | quantities greater than a PV-based society needs.
       | 
       | This paper suffers from the same problem that nearly everyone
       | writing about this has: they assume the current situation is
       | fixed, and we can't do anything different. Fossil fuel lobbyists
       | have use this to argue that renewables are too expensive the
       | whole way down their price curve. INET Oxford published a working
       | paper with charts that nicely illustrate this "we're stopped!"
       | fixation.[1]
       | 
       | The real problems we face are all political.
       | 
       | The physico-chemical realities are that we are living on top of a
       | deep pile of substitution turtles, and the "status quo" is about
       | trends, not levels.
       | 
       | 1.
       | https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/empirically-g...
       | Look at figure 2 on page 4.
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | In an econ book I read once, there was a wonderful analogy:
       | Imagine you are given a room in your house that was filled waste
       | high with pistachios - you could go in and eat as many as you
       | wanted, but the shells will always have to be left behind. They
       | start out easy and plentiful to grab, and you could easily do
       | some math about how long this room of pistachios will last you.
       | So on paper you are sure to run out.
       | 
       | But in practice, you'll just spend longer going into the room
       | every time to get what you want, and gradually stop going
       | altogether - actually running out of nuts is pretty much
       | impossible.
       | 
       | You will almost never naturally run out of _stuff_. Low prices
       | make them leave it in the ground - high prices makes people find
       | substitutes. We 're just in a weird place were China might be
       | dumping money to artificially keep some resource prices low _and_
       | still extracting tons of it.
        
         | titzer wrote:
         | Tell that to the whales.
         | 
         | Prior to 1700 there were estimated over 350,000 blue whales in
         | the world's oceans. Now, only an estimated 25,000 remain.
         | 
         | Human-caused complete extinction is very common, particularly
         | for megafauna. E.g. giant sloths in North America and most
         | large animals in Australia went extinct within centuries or
         | millenia of human settlement.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | Population management is a bit different. And while, yes
           | whales are a tragedy, the paper in question is trying to make
           | a point that running out of fixed resources will lead to
           | economic collapse. Whales are an example of a resource that
           | collapsed with little felt _economic_ pain.
           | 
           | Also, whales in particular are an interesting example,
           | because the vast majority of them were slaughtered
           | _completely unnecessarily_ by the Soviet Union just to
           | fulfill arbitrary production quotas:
           | https://psmag.com/social-justice/the-senseless-
           | environment-c...
        
             | pjmorris wrote:
             | > Whales are an example of a resource that collapsed with
             | little felt economic pain.
             | 
             | I was reading GP's comment as not so much about whales as
             | about the kind of thing that could happen to any flora or
             | fauna, e.g. bees. Sooner or later we're going to deplete
             | something that has unintended ecological and economic
             | consequences.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | Oh sure. But this isn't necessarily a new phenomenon:
               | mammoths, the rainforests of Scotland, silphium.
               | 
               | But as a response to the paper, I just think it's a hard
               | argument to make that there are specific material limits
               | to economic growth.
        
               | sbf501 wrote:
               | It is a new phenomenon when the the thing that goes
               | extinct is critical infrastructure (e.g., pollinators).
               | We've seen similar things with the great potato famine: a
               | critical resource went (temporarily) extinct due to
               | blight, and the results were catastrophic. The paper is
               | trying to make the same statement with minerals, but at a
               | global scale, not just referring to the poor in one
               | country in the 19th century.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)
               | 
               | map of population death toll:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)#/med
               | ia/...
        
               | scottLobster wrote:
               | I'm not sure the potato famine is the best example, as a
               | large part of the "famine" was due to British
               | mismanagement/cruelty. The Brits kept exporting food from
               | Ireland in spite of the famine, leaving the Irish to
               | starve. Had they banned exports, like India is doing now
               | for wheat, it likely would have been a historical
               | footnote.
        
               | daniel-cussen wrote:
               | They also insisted nobody gift food to the Irish in
               | excess of what the queen of England was giving them.
               | Censored I think...Ottoman Empire's gifts this way. They
               | had to maroon ships full of grain by accident, and tons
               | of people sent food, like even Kenyans and Native
               | Americans.
               | 
               | Ireland still hasn't repopulated. Still half its 19th
               | century peak population roughly.
        
             | soperj wrote:
             | USA took in nearly 200,000 tons of whales in 1858 alone,
             | nearly all of it just to produce oil from the blubber, and
             | the rest of the carcass was discarded. I'd say that was
             | completely unnecessary as well.
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | Plenty of island communities actually ran out of resources,
         | especially firewood.
        
         | MomoXenosaga wrote:
         | Rare earth are not rare Euros just don't want the environmental
         | problems and cancer cases. Even Serbia went full nimby on
         | mining them lol.
        
         | Paedor wrote:
         | It can, admittedly, be a bit of a problem when you need 5
         | pistachios per second to survive and you're tripping over the
         | shells trying to collect them fast enough.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | > you're tripping over the shells trying to collect them fast
           | enough
           | 
           | That's the whole point of the analogy. Even if you still need
           | pistachios, most rational people will start looking
           | elsewhere.
           | 
           | A good example of this is California's water shortage. It may
           | seem like collapse is inevitable, but Californians just voted
           | against another desalination plant. Alternatives exist
           | everywhere but the policy failure is in preventing people
           | from exploring them.
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | The issue is that water is cheap and nearly free when you
             | have enough, and nearly impossible to get when you don't.
             | 
             | Desalination plants need to be run regularly or everything
             | plugs up/corrodes. They're also capital intensive and not
             | cheap to operate (as the process itself is expensive per
             | gallon), so expensive to buy and not use, AND not cheap to
             | buy and use.
             | 
             | But 90% of the time, California has more water than it can
             | use (literally!), and the remaining 10% of the time, it
             | still isn't _actually_ out of water in most places, as the
             | water sources are regional or local, and most local or
             | regional water sources are still fine.
             | 
             | So you'd be spending a massive amount of money to hedge for
             | an edge case that generally never happens in a way the
             | hedge would economically solve. Which is why they generally
             | don't actually get built, or if they do, they get built and
             | then decommissioned. At least around here.
             | 
             | Other, drier climates (middle east) are different of
             | course. We'll get there eventually I'm sure.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | > But 90% of the time, California has more water than it
               | can use
               | 
               | How can this possibly be true? Nevada and Arizona are
               | both about to go dry because California is still taking a
               | majority of the water from Lake Mead.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Those two facts are not contradictory at all!
               | 
               | See the agreement this is under
               | [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Compact].
               | Under current conditions, it's easy for Arizona or Nevada
               | to no longer have any allotment while California still
               | has plenty left.
               | 
               | That said, now is the 10% of the time the State _doesn't_
               | have too much water.
               | 
               | Also note, water supplies are generally local or at most
               | regional. The water pulled from the Colorado under the
               | compact is pulled and transported by the Metropolitan
               | Water District and goes to SoCal. Even if it dries up,
               | and the aqueduct pulling water from the Central Valley
               | and Eastern Sierra breaks - that really only impacts LA.
               | 
               | Which is a lot of people, and would be a crisis (ad
               | unlikely, to put it mildly!) but a tiny portion of
               | California by number of cities, geographic area, etc.
        
               | daniel-cussen wrote:
               | Well farmers love to put civilians at the back of the
               | line to the well and hold them hostage. Farmers use
               | something like...hard to measure they really _really_ don
               | 't want measurement, but 80-90% of water. In this paper
               | it says roughly that percentage of water is used for
               | agriculture, it's in the charts.
               | 
               | Farmers get water gifts and city slickers get droughts.
               | Basically a farmer is a water thief, surely not in 5000mm
               | rainfall a year but in Mediterranean weather? Water thief
               | all the way. _Chinatown_ was about this. Just stealing
               | water nonstop, bribes murder conspiracy you name it. It
               | 's the limiting factor in these climates and it's so so
               | easy to steal.
               | 
               | Take one more drop. What's the consequence? _Nothing
               | happens._ Classic tragedy of the commons.
               | 
               | .
               | 
               | I don't see why a farmer should pay any less for a liter
               | of water than anybody else. Free market for water, you
               | pay for the quantity and the distribution raw every time.
               | People object and insist on price discrimination to
               | protect poor people, when really price discrimination
               | discriminates against poor people. They end up having to
               | buy bottled soda (blacks do this) because the water is
               | too salty to drink, while a farmer with a square mile
               | just pays for the power to his new wells.
               | 
               | Now it's true that salting the water has a huge cost and
               | that turning water into brine to make dentists happy (or
               | they start this crazy squealing screams about children
               | getting cavities at rates they are purely making up) is
               | expensive. Stop doing it. Cold turkey. And then, don't
               | insist everyone have perfect teeth. Feature people with
               | bad teeth in posters, tell people to see dentists once a
               | year at most, pull teeth now and then, look at artists
               | like Robyn https://music.apple.com/us/artist/robyn/535211
               | who don't have stereotypical American dentist dream-
               | teeth. It costs $100 a year to salt the water, then you
               | go to your doctor she says you need to eat less sodium
               | meaning shake the salt shaker less. What about instead
               | _colluded degreed professionals stop putting that sodium
               | in the water table_? Plus that salt in the brine--cannot
               | be called water if it 's intentionally salted--tap brine
               | --alters brain chemistry to crave sugar, so it's not even
               | as good at what it's supposed to do as it claims. Causes
               | chemical imbalance, literally. F atoms effing up your
               | sodium-chloride channels into sodium-fluoride channels.
               | They're called sodium-chloride for historical reasons,
               | from an era before F'ing up the water.
               | 
               | .
               | 
               | Changing subjects back, price discrimination generally
               | backfires against the poor in favor of the rich. Ever
               | seen people digging a well in a ghetto? That's pretty
               | much what they do in fact do, walk to the eg gas station
               | and buy some big bottles of juice so they don't die of
               | thirst. Ghetto water is so salty they can't even drink it
               | (for political reasons, it's formal oppression, F'ing up
               | the water impedes ghettoes from eg taking people to small
               | claims courts or filing for welfare, or protesting,
               | joining unions, complaining properly, getting an
               | education, competing for slots in colleges, everything
               | everything everything). That water tastes more like
               | toothpaste than toothpaste itself, which is what sodium
               | fluoride tastes like. That's sodium fluoride's signature
               | flavor. Your body knows what that shit is, every kid
               | hates it and struggles to avoid it, because _they 're
               | smart_. That's how you take mountain water and make it
               | taste like city water, mix in some toothpaste. And in
               | Chile which is more heavily geopolitically oppressed the
               | fluoridation in toothpaste is insane, 250 ppm in USA,
               | 1650 ppm in Chile. Regulation. You have to go to like a
               | Native Chilean (Mapuche) store for non-F-ed-up
               | toothpaste. And F-ing is the specific reason you're told
               | not to swallow toothpaste, that's an acknowledgement that
               | NaF is bad for you, but it's irrelevant you absorb it
               | through your gums and mouth. Much more than with teeth,
               | the least chemically reactive organ.
               | 
               | .
               | 
               | Back to the farmer, farmer is out of luck with no water
               | rights, nothing, oh, what? Farmers go out of business?
               | _Go, go out of business, business of theft, your
               | subsidized thieving farm going out of business is pure
               | benefit to the economy_. Everybody wins. Just leave land
               | as shrubland, come on. Dry, some native grasses, some
               | bald spots, looks beautiful that way, like the land on
               | Highway 280 South of Stanford, or around Apple Campus for
               | that matter. Beautiful, nobody waters it, _not exploited
               | for grazing_ , native grasses outcompete invaders, no
               | maintenance, leave it like that. It's not a waste. That's
               | California. Not a golf course, that would be England.
               | There yeah. East Coast too. Go back to England if you
               | want to have green lawns at a price that rips everyone
               | else off, go and don't come back, if you think the East
               | is better than the West, go to the East from the West.
               | 
               | .
               | 
               | That's one of the industries startups (including YC
               | startups) have a really hard time in, looks tempting but
               | no, medicine and agriculture. And music, "don't do a
               | music startup" as pg put it. No particular reason they
               | should be so aggressive against outsiders, right? Look
               | like good sectors? All are heavily subsidized stealing
               | from everybody around them. No sympathy for farmers. At
               | all. Dude just sell the land get a job selling shoes like
               | shrinks propose rehabilitation patients do. Same goes for
               | doctors: forget your degree, if you're a doctor you can
               | get a job selling shoes like you propose your
               | rehabilitation patients do. Sink or swim. No _chinitas_
               | [as they 're called in Chile, like the ladybug insects
               | which do this to each other (no relation to Chinese, it's
               | a coincidence), meaning climbing on someone else's back
               | and drowning them to stay afloat, like both those
               | industries currently are to everything else].
               | 
               | So gross to see rich people begging.
        
               | legitster wrote:
               | > Even if it dries up, and the aqueduct pulling water
               | from the Central Valley and Eastern Sierra breaks - that
               | really only impacts LA.
               | 
               | Again, you seem to be dismissive that California is about
               | to destroy the economy of two _other_ states in a quest
               | for cheap water.
               | 
               | The CRC:
               | 
               | >Extreme shortage. The most severe shortage considered in
               | the interim guidelines is when the level of Lake Mead
               | drops below 1,025 feet (312 m), in which event 7,000,000
               | acre-feet (8.6 km3) per year will be delivered to the
               | Lower Basin states: 4,400,000 acre-feet (5.4 km3) to
               | California, 2,320,000 acre-feet (2.86 km3) to Arizona,
               | and 280,000 acre-feet (0.35 km3) to Nevada.
               | 
               | 90% of the water in Las Vegas comes from Lake Mead. In
               | the event of Lake Mead drying up, the entire state of
               | Nevada gets less than 0.5% of the volume of the Colorado.
               | While I guess it's nice to know that SoCal has other
               | options when the water runs out, we're talking about a
               | humanitarian disaster for a Las Vegas that has no other
               | options.
               | 
               | If desalination is really unnecessary, California should
               | stop blocking efforts to revise the Compact.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Hardly dismissive - it's called staying on topic? A
               | question was asked, folks seem to not know the how or the
               | why if the situation - so here I am.
               | 
               | The California diversion of the Colorado is downstream of
               | AZ and NV. California only gets the water they let it
               | have, under the agreement. Which California probably has
               | more lawyers than total population in both AZ and NV
               | state Capitals, so there is that.
               | 
               | California has always out 'peopled' and out 'moneyed'
               | it's neighbors, and LA+SF has done that within the state.
               | 
               | When resources were seemingly infinite and the country
               | was growing at a breakneck pace, that was controversial
               | but didn't really break things.
               | 
               | Everything has a breaking point somewhere. We'll see if
               | this is one of them.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | De-sal super expensive and has issues - isn't a silver
             | bullet as proponents like to make it out to be.
        
               | acidburnNSA wrote:
               | Is it more expensive than running out of water though?
        
               | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
               | If the cost of running out of water is shutting down a
               | few acres of almond farms, probably.
        
               | pyuser583 wrote:
               | It's more expensive than other alternatives to running
               | out of water. For example, mining fresh water from below
               | the ocean floor.
        
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