[HN Gopher] Time Till Open Source Alternative
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Time Till Open Source Alternative
        
       Author : feross
       Score  : 452 points
       Date   : 2022-08-28 00:03 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (staltz.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (staltz.com)
        
       | sylware wrote:
       | weird, most of the web alternatives there are not noscript/basic
       | (x)html friendly. For instance, I cannot even browse the
       | directory of owncast! Peertube gives me a blank page. Google
       | financed blink/geeko or apple financed webkit only for those
       | alternatives... :(
        
       | analog31 wrote:
       | I doubt there's a single reason for the staying power of
       | proprietary software, that explains all of the examples. But here
       | are some of my thoughts:
       | 
       | 1. Really sweating the details of the UI, and managing the vast
       | number of edge cases that users are uncannily able to discover,
       | takes an army of programmers doing work that they only enjoy well
       | enough to do it for a lot of money.
       | 
       | 2. Not knowing what the software is used for gives the incumbent
       | an advantage. They don't need to know -- just keep making the
       | same thing, which is mainly what the user wants. Until they try
       | to design Version 2, god help them. Anybody else is stuck
       | replicating _all_ of the incumbent 's features. Programming tools
       | don't have this problem because users can implement their own
       | features.
       | 
       | 3. The economics have to make sense. I don't pay for my annual
       | subscription to <specialized technical software>, and it's chump
       | change for my employer. A workshop that tries to cheap out on CAD
       | will lose their designers.
       | 
       | 4. A lot of software flies below the radar. I've never seen any
       | of my employer's software products mentioned on HN, yet we're
       | quite a big company.
       | 
       | 5. Software tied to other stuff, such as hardware, databases (and
       | data), etc. That stuff is effectively a dongle.
        
       | DannyBee wrote:
       | The chart is interesting because it misses the important part -
       | it covers time, but not adoption.
       | 
       | For example, adoption of GIMP has not likely materially increased
       | over time (as a relative percent of total addressable market)
       | 
       | IMHO, what the author gets wrong what so many people who claim
       | this (they are not the first, or the last) get wrong - open
       | source as a whole sucks at building _products_ , but is great at
       | building _infrastructure_. (and pretty good at infrastructure
       | products).
       | 
       | If you go look at areas where an open source thing is a de-facto
       | market-leader, they are mostly infrastructure. Not all, but the
       | ones that aren't have clear product management of some sort.
       | 
       | That is - the good open source _products_ are often built /driven
       | either by _extremely_ product focused people (This is rare), or
       | by companies driving them with PMs.
       | 
       | Not that the engineering doesn't matter - of course it does, but
       | if you want a good and successful _product_ , engineering is just
       | a part of what is needed. Sometimes not even the main part!
       | 
       | Open source focuses mainly _on the engineering part_ , often
       | creating technical meritocracies that focus on making "The
       | technically best software".
       | 
       | This is totally cool, but also totally orthogonal to building "a
       | good product that people want to use".
       | 
       | Secondarily, you have the issue of survival in marketplace (IE
       | There are a rash of OSS companies achieving near 100% of total
       | addressable market share, and still going bankrupt due to
       | inability to monetize). This, however, is not as big an issue as
       | the first (as people can always still pick it all up when that
       | happens)
       | 
       | Open source could always get better at products, but its
       | historical development models were geared towards exactly the
       | above (IE it does what it says on the tin)
        
         | AshamedCaptain wrote:
         | > it covers time, but not adoption.
         | 
         | And you can't really cover "time" in an objective way before
         | first determining some reasonable threshold for adoption, which
         | is about as hard to objectively define as it gets. This means
         | all the data presented in this article is basically
         | meaningless.
         | 
         | For example, _way_ before Github we already had open source
         | code hosting & collaboration servers. Trac comes to mind, but
         | there's an even better example -- Gitorious, which also came
         | before Github. Why did the author not even consider these two
         | examples and only named Gitlab es the "replacement" for Github
         | ? I could understand the omission of Trac since perhaps it was
         | not primarily Git-based, but Gitorious? Gitorious was even at
         | one point the #1 Git platform, eventually surpassed in
         | popularity by Github (and much, much later by Gitlab).
         | 
         | Is this a "proprietary alternative replacing a open source one"
         | ? How do you even take this into account in your "Time until
         | OSS alternative" metric ? It just shows how meaningless this
         | all is without a subjective definition of "alternative" or
         | "replacement". There is no way to present this objectively as
         | the authors are trying to do. The entire data set is
         | manipulated to fit their point.
         | 
         | The rest of "replacements" are similarly questionable or even
         | ridiculous, because, depending on your definition, they either
         | ignore alternatives that came much earlier (because
         | surprisingly frequently a proprietary "service" replaces a
         | popular open source program) or call a service "an alternative"
         | when it is simply not.
        
         | la_fayette wrote:
         | This sometimes might be true, but there are many
         | counterexamples. If you look at the web content management
         | systems, the market is dominated by well-engineered open source
         | CMS products, e.g., Drupal, ez Publish, typo3... Even for
         | webshops this true: presta shop, opencart, ...
        
           | BiteCode_dev wrote:
           | Firefox, VLC, Signal, chromium, codium, veracrypt, ublock
           | origin, bitwarden, ubuntu...
        
             | nickelpro wrote:
             | None of these are counter-examples to what the OP said
             | 
             | > Not all, but the ones that aren't have clear product
             | management of some sort.
             | 
             | That's effectively all of these except maybe ublock.
             | 
             | If you don't have someone trying to sell some portion of
             | your code base, true community efforts not a commercial
             | effort that happens to be OSS, you're probably an
             | infrastructure project.
        
             | astrange wrote:
             | Firefox is made by a company. VLC has a product manager
             | (who owns the VideoLAN Foundation).
        
               | klabb3 wrote:
               | Signal and chromium as well. I am not sure about Ubuntu,
               | but to me it looks like they have a product/design org.
               | 
               | Blender would be another example. How are they run?
        
               | flohofwoe wrote:
               | Blender is a foundation:
               | 
               | https://www.blender.org/about/foundation/
        
               | klabb3 wrote:
               | Interesting. So all of the examples have salaried design
               | and product folks?
               | 
               | Meanwhile there's thousands of volunteering FOSS projects
               | that are engineers only. Do product & design people not
               | have passion projects? Or they do but are for some reason
               | unable to collaborate with engineers (or vice versa)?
        
               | sbuk wrote:
               | It's a complex problem. Design agencies and individual
               | designers are blighted by the spectre of "spec work"
               | [https://www.nospec.com]
               | [https://creativemornings.com/talks/mike-monteiro--2/1].
               | The tl;dr of it is that business will approach agencies
               | and demand they work on a product for free, of a a cost
               | lower than the wok is worth in an act of good faith for
               | the promise of fully paid work in the future. Except the
               | work rarely comes. The upshot is designers are taught the
               | value of their worth at college/university.
               | 
               | The other problem is the FOSS community itself. See the
               | concurrent post about GIMP
               | [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32624055].
               | Opinionated devs that either don't see the value of
               | design or having a designer. I know that this isn't true
               | for all projects, but there a bad apples amongst the
               | bigger, more well known projects (GNOME for example) that
               | will spoil it for everyone else. Again, GIMP is a great
               | example of this. As a result, most 'passion projects'
               | lead to designers working on small projects that inspire
               | them, which are rarely software related, ore they look to
               | create something that can provide an income, either as a
               | small second income or as a new business.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Canonical basically supports Ubuntu. (Over and above the
               | Linux kernel and other components many of which are
               | supported by many different companies (and individuals).
        
           | nickelpro wrote:
           | A CMS is infrastructure, it's business facing not user facing
        
             | la_fayette wrote:
             | I consider the content editors as end users of a CMS. The
             | website visitor is not using the CMS.
        
           | realityking wrote:
           | There's a large proprietary CMS market, mostly Adobe
           | Experience Manager, Sitecore, EpiServer/Optimizely. There's
           | also the more recently risen headless/SaaS content platforms
           | such as Contentful, Sanity, Contentstack, etc. At the bottom
           | end of the market you got Webflow, Wix, and Squarespace.
           | 
           | Wordpress and Drupal do compete but the market is not
           | dominated by open source if you look at more than just the
           | count of websites.
           | 
           | Similar things are true in commerce. Salesforce Commerce, SAP
           | Commerce, Shopify, BigCommerce, and commercetools are all not
           | open source but very sizable businesses.
        
           | omnimus wrote:
           | It might seem like domination but its just the biggest field.
           | The pie is huge, everybody needs CMS. So everybody eats and
           | if you focus on one segment it might see like its domination.
           | 
           | I would say if anything every other website now is Webflow.
           | Every shop is Shopify. And highest quality CMSes are
           | commercial products like Craft CMS or Kirby CMS. So serious
           | projects often grab those instead of OSS offerings.
        
             | la_fayette wrote:
             | Ok, there is for sure a closed source offering. Although,
             | if you look at the data of the 1 millio top site on
             | builtwith a strong oss share is clearly visible. It goes
             | without saying that wordpress has the overall largest
             | share, which technically might not be considered a fully-
             | fledged CMS...
        
         | rr808 wrote:
         | > de-facto market-leader, they are mostly infrastructure
         | 
         | Maybe its technical users? Even linux is used by IT pros rather
         | than regular people. I think tech people just dont like paying
         | for anything.
        
           | 2muchcoffeeman wrote:
           | Yet we happily buy Macs and IntelliJ licenses and pay for
           | alternatives to Gmail.
           | 
           | Linux, is quite frankly the best dev environment you can get.
           | MacOS is a nice compromise if you need some commercial
           | software too. At least it's still a Unix.
        
           | pjmlp wrote:
           | Those of us that realise our salaries must come out from
           | somewhere, do like paying others for the work we profit from.
        
             | joshmanders wrote:
             | I think the correlation of people who don't like paying for
             | things and engineers are because most engineers are people
             | who learned computers at a young age and found piracy, etc
             | as their goto way to learn things because I know I couldn't
             | afford Macromedia Dreamweaver when I was a kid, but I used
             | it...
             | 
             | So now most think "why would I pay when I can pirate or use
             | an alternative that is a pain to setup but once you get
             | over that initial pain, it's smooth sailing" whereas others
             | are like "I don't have time nor desire to do that, just
             | take my $10/mo"
             | 
             | I personally stopped pirating and started paying for stuff
             | for the same reasons you stated, and also because I felt
             | like a hypocrite expecting people to pay me for my work,
             | when I wouldn't pay others for their work.
        
               | pronlover723 wrote:
               | I think it comes from being young with no disposable
               | income and carrying that idea for too long. The older I
               | get the more I pay. I have the money, I value my time, I
               | value other people's time, I try to pay them one way or
               | another.
               | 
               | I paid for Sublime Merge when I could have used one of
               | the 10 other free git front ends. I can't say there is
               | any particular feature I use that are not available in
               | the other front ends.
               | 
               | I've been paying $299 up front and $120 a year for a text
               | editor since the 90s and I rarely use it anymore (I use
               | VSCode more) but I still find I go back to it once in a
               | while and while $120 a year might sound like a lot it's
               | less than I'm being paid by the hour so I can spend hours
               | or days searching for alternatives or I can just pay the
               | $120 and keep using the solution I know. I donate to
               | several open source projects monthly and have given $50
               | or $100 here or there to others.
               | 
               | At the same time, I have to really get a ton of value out
               | of the project. Blender, Kodi, a few large libraries that
               | would take me months to repo I'm happy to donate. People
               | making a 1k-5k line project and asking for funding though
               | kind of seem like bad faith actors. It's like they're
               | ignoring the tons of stuff they get for free and instead
               | of giving back they're being miserly. It'd be like going
               | to a potluck party, everyone brings something for free
               | but one person brings beers and asks $2 per can while at
               | the same time eating from all the free food.
               | 
               | People complain about corps using open source and not
               | paying but I personally don't see it that way. Most tech
               | corps give back in one way or another. Apple gives Clang,
               | LLVM, JSC, WebKit... Google gives Chromium, Go, Dart,
               | Flutter, Core Android, Skia, ... Facebook gives React,
               | React-Native, PyTorch, ... Microsoft gives .NET, C#, F#,
               | VSCode, Electron, Github (free hosting and free CI for
               | open source), and even in if some corp, GM? uses open
               | source I'm sure they give back to society in some way.
               | There are few companies that are all take and no give.
               | 
               | Maybe another way to frame it, I see lots of open source
               | as similar to volunteering. If go volunteer to clean up a
               | park I don't get angry that lots of people come use the
               | park without also volunteering to clean up. Sure, if my
               | volunteering becomes a burden that makes too many demands
               | of my time then I'm either going to stop or it's going to
               | have to become a job but the fact that that threshold
               | exists doesn't mean things below that threshold need to
               | stop existing.
        
               | pjmlp wrote:
               | Exactly that.
        
               | hilbert42 wrote:
               | I use mainly open source software so I don't use pirated
               | stuff in any of my operational systems as it poses too
               | many problems.
               | 
               | So too is licensed commercial software as Adobe's
               | Photoshop licensing scam shows. One of my most annoying
               | examples is _UltraEdit_ a text and code editor originally
               | from IDM Computer Solutions, now Idera, Inc.
               | 
               | Years ago I bought a perpetual upgrade license which at
               | the time was quite expensive when compared to a single-
               | version purchase but along the way IDM introduced a
               | website locking mechanism to stop pirating and it turned
               | out to be a big problem.
               | 
               | If one didn't uninstall _UltraEdit_ correctly the IDM
               | website deemed it to still be installed. Now, we 're all
               | pretty familiar with that except the trouble was that I'd
               | be forever changing the O/S or blue-screening it and I'd
               | often forget to uninstall U/E first - and it was the only
               | instance of server-locked software on my machine (having
               | vowed long before IDM changed the rules never to buy
               | software licensed in this way).
               | 
               | I should note that multiple installed instances were
               | never a problem as the license permitted three copies and
               | I only ever had one installed copy at a time. The problem
               | was continual difficulties in resolving the 'dead'
               | license count on the server as the company just wasn't
               | interested in helping. So the solution was to remain on
               | the last of the non-locked versions (U/E for Windows
               | v16.2).
               | 
               | So I felt cheated and I still do. Moreover, the company
               | lost sales, I didn't buy UltraCompare nor did I put
               | UltraEdit or it on my Linux systems as was my original
               | intention.
               | 
               | Frankly, most commercial software sucks big-time, long
               | live open source.
        
               | MaxBarraclough wrote:
               | > If one didn't uninstall _UltraEdit_ correctly the IDM
               | website deemed it to still be installed.
               | 
               | In my experience with this kind of DRM, an email is
               | generally enough to get them to reset the licence at
               | their end. Still an inconvenience though, and you'll need
               | to wait until they've done it.
        
               | hilbert42 wrote:
               | I don't want to mislead anyone here, 'continally' means
               | that was the case every time and that was quite a few but
               | it was over some years - certainly not every few weeks or
               | even months.
               | 
               | On the other hand, another program I purchased for
               | several hundred dollars reqired activation but was much
               | easier to deal with. Despite my vow, it was one of those
               | situations where I needed a quick solution so I purchased
               | it fully expecting the same trouble (note, there was no
               | indication on the website about the activation process).
               | 
               | So to avoid any inconvenience through downtime, I
               | inquired what happens in such circumstances and the
               | almost immediate reply was 'there's no problem
               | reactivating it so long as you don't do so too often
               | within a given week'. Note, there was no need to inform
               | the company beforehand.
               | 
               | From my experience, that's definitely the exception to
               | the norm, so not all software companies are unreasonable.
        
               | ksec wrote:
               | That is why I think most software should have an
               | educational license that allow students to freely use
               | their product. I mean even Steve Jobs said it on stage,
               | no one pays for Adobe Photoshop in college. LOL
        
               | pjmlp wrote:
               | Most relevant software does have such licenses, that is
               | how I used to buy Borland software.
        
         | yobbo wrote:
         | > open source as a whole sucks at building products, but is
         | great at building infrastructure.
         | 
         | Yes, but Android? When companies promote OSS products, they
         | become successful.
         | 
         | > totally orthogonal to building "a good product that people
         | want to use"
         | 
         | An OSS product will not end up on shelves with glitzy packaging
         | for people to buy unless some company burns money to do that.
         | It's not a fundamental law and OSS isn't orthogonal to
         | anything.
        
           | surajrmal wrote:
           | AOSP is not a product and is not really usable by itself. It
           | needs to be combined with Gapps and Google play services to
           | really be considered a product. And I would argue that
           | combination isn't a consumer facing product either. It's a
           | product aimed at OEMs who combine it with their hardware and
           | a few layers of additional hardware integration in order to
           | create a consumer facing product. I know there are open
           | source alternatives that replace many of these proprietary
           | layers but they aren't very popular with the market.
        
         | moonchrome wrote:
         | Open source works when big players decide it's economical to
         | comoditize something and do it in the open to share cost and
         | get testing, also good will, etc.
         | 
         | This is why it's mostly in infrastructure. But it works in
         | product applications - like Epic contributing to Blender
         | because it enables their platform.
        
         | zeruch wrote:
         | I was about to write about 80% of what you wrote, so Im glad I
         | parsed the comments first (and GIMP & Krita were going to be my
         | examples, as well as the AWS-ification of things like Elastic)
         | but to me the real crux is "open source as a whole sucks at
         | building products, but is great at building infrastructure".
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | Infrastructure has a bit of a tragedy of the commons thing
         | going on. No one wants to pay for everyone else's
         | infrastructure.
         | 
         | So any software project that is infrastructure tends to suffer
         | from lack of funding, whether it be proprietary software or
         | open source.
         | 
         | There are exceptions, naturally. E.g., PostgreSQL and SQLite,
         | and Linux. To overcome the tragedy of the commons you need tons
         | of interest and community. Everyone who contributes has to feel
         | like they're getting their money's worth and that there's no
         | better way. I.e., mindshare matters. Mindshare matters whether
         | the thing is open source or proprietary.
        
           | pronlover723 wrote:
           | Is there any place there are actual statistics on this. Say
           | the top 10k most used open source projects across languages
           | where each project has the amount of money spent to maintain
           | it / the number of people hours needed to maintain it and
           | where the maintainers care to be remunerated?
           | 
           | I really don't know which open source projects are under
           | funded. Firefox, Python, LLVM, Clang, .NET, Chromium,
           | Electron, VSCode are certainly adequately funded. There are
           | also projects like some of my own that have a few 100 or 1000
           | users but I don't need/want funding for them. Maybe if they
           | got 10k or 100k users and I actually got lots of support
           | requests that would change.
           | 
           | I'm sure there are several under funded projects but it'd be
           | nice to see some qualitative data instead of just feeling it
           | must be true.
        
         | fnord123 wrote:
         | You have a good point that we can start a discussion around but
         | I think you're being overly negative and falling for survivor
         | bias. E.g. Does the success of Photoshop mean proprietary
         | product management is superior? Or does the death of Corel Draw
         | mean it's doomed to failure? And Apple, everyone's favourite
         | product company, has Pages and Numbers which are not better
         | than OO (and Word's incumbency is vaguely illegal).
         | 
         | So let's put that, and FOSS dominance in browsers and IDEs and
         | databases and programming languages and media players to the
         | side.
         | 
         | FOSS could do with better product management: what would it
         | look like? More roadmaps? More figma/inkscape mockups? More
         | user interviews?
        
         | johnywalks wrote:
         | > open source as a whole sucks at building products, but is
         | great at building infrastructure
         | 
         | Infrastructure you can trust. Most close sourced tech will lock
         | you in and you're at their mercy - no thanks.
        
           | dvfjsdhgfv wrote:
           | Because this is, well, the very purpose of proprietary
           | infrastructure: to lock you in. Today, it seems to exist
           | mostly in places where people have no choice.
        
         | ZeroGravitas wrote:
         | I'd argue, and think GIMP is a good example, that products can
         | fight off open source alternative adoption by being free to
         | certain groups.
         | 
         | Piracy, student discounts, shareware, limited trials.
         | 
         | You could still consider this a win for open source, as it
         | stops market abuse and restricts those paying to the people who
         | depend on the software for business reasons and who haven't had
         | their trust sufficiently broken that they switch over to open
         | source to prevent abuse (which is the story in infrastructure,
         | you're basically a sharecropper if you're building on non-open
         | source infra).
        
           | heliodor wrote:
           | The only thing that held back adoption of GIMP is its
           | perpetually horrible UX.
        
             | AmalgatedAmoeba wrote:
             | No, it's really not (unless you mean the literal, holistic
             | user experience and not what the term usually refers to).
             | GIMP is lacking the tools and integrations that make
             | Photoshop seem like magic, while not being more performant
             | or offering much of a benefit beyond being OSS. The
             | lackluster UI is just the cherry on top.
        
           | rozab wrote:
           | The key example for this is BitKeeper. They signed their own
           | death warrant by ceasing to provide free licenses to open
           | source developers. Unfortunately, one of the projects using
           | it was Linux. Linus was forced to write git and the rest is
           | history
        
             | matijsvzuijlen wrote:
             | Wasn't that Perforce?
        
               | ajb wrote:
               | No, it was bitkeeper: https://lwn.net/Articles/131657/
        
           | dotancohen wrote:
           | That is not a win for open source because reducing payments
           | is not a goal of open source. Assured continuation of
           | availability and ownership of user's data is the explicit
           | goal of the FOSS movement as stated by RMS. That means that
           | it will continue to run on your hardware, and won't lock your
           | data, and you can fix the bugs and suit it to your purpose.
           | 
           | Money was never the issue.
        
             | umanwizard wrote:
             | Richard Stallman's personal philosophy does not define the
             | goals of open source. There are many different people
             | contributing to it for many different reasons, and yes,
             | having free (as in non-paid) alternatives to proprietary
             | software is one of the most prominent ones.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | > Richard Stallman's personal philosophy does not define
               | the goals of open source.
               | 
               | Richard Stallman has nothing do do with open source, and
               | Free software was defined as Richard Stallman's personal
               | philosophy, take it or leave it. He hasn't changed it.
               | 
               | I'm a complete free software advocate, but definitely
               | only for Stallman's reasons. I have no urge to give free
               | things to computer programmers. If I'm going to give away
               | free stuff, I'll give to the poor. I don't have any
               | special sympathy towards the needy computer programmer
               | just because they share my hobby/vocation.
        
             | ZeroGravitas wrote:
             | RMS is on record as supporting BSD style licences for
             | certain things because without them, proprietary software
             | would have an even stronger stranglehold.
             | 
             | https://lwn.net/2001/0301/a/rms-ov-license.php3
             | 
             | So it's not totally black and white, there's tactics and
             | strategy involved. The less money going to Adobe, the less
             | power and control they have. If they can force you to pay,
             | they can force you to do other things. If they can't force
             | you to pay, then they can't force other things as well.
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | The corollary is that FOSS-induced e.g. "student
               | versions" of Adobe software entrench vendor lockin, as
               | the students learn only Adobe software.
        
           | troad wrote:
           | I respectfully disagree; I think GIMP is a great example of
           | an open source alternative that is both markedly worse than
           | the corresponding commercial product, and yet good enough to
           | inhibit the creation of new open source projects that would
           | otherwise jeopardise the market share of that commercial
           | product.
           | 
           | If I were an engineer at Adobe, and I was asked to make an
           | open source project that would in no way endanger Photoshop -
           | a product no serious Photoshop pro could ever figure out or
           | be satisfied with - I'd give you something very much like
           | GIMP. The fact that open source devs are generally content
           | with GIMP is fantastic (for Adobe): it reduces the risk
           | they'll create something actually competitive among artists
           | and designers. Plus, Adobe gets to point to the GIMP if
           | they're ever accused of monopolistic or anti-competitive
           | behaviour.
        
             | mid-kid wrote:
             | I wholeheartedly disagree with the sentiment in your
             | comment. Just because you, or a certain group of people
             | don't like it, doesn't mean it's a bad tool. It may not
             | serve for everyone, but for those for which it does, it
             | works, and it does so well. Also, acting like photoshop is
             | the be-all end-all of photo editing pushes the idea that
             | you must be just like photoshop to even compete, which is
             | actively harmful as it prevents people from innovating, and
             | puts pressure on anyone thinking of even attempting such a
             | daunting task.
             | 
             | Furthermore, even if I were to agree, your argument
             | completely falls apart with the existence of Krita. Writing
             | software like this is hard and time-consuming, which is the
             | primary reason we haven't seen more projects of this scale,
             | as there's been various smaller-scale tools over the years,
             | like Pinta.
        
               | wowokay wrote:
               | Your second sentence doesn't make sense because their
               | post presented a lot of good points that move the
               | argument past a "I don't like it so it's bad" argument.
               | To knock it up another notch those same points could be
               | applied to Linux over Windows. Market (user) adoption is
               | the only real metric to measure against. The argument I
               | submit is that a tool like Gimp can't be considered
               | better if it can't claim the market to prove it, if it
               | was fundamentally better at its core adoption would pass
               | the non open source leader.
        
               | troad wrote:
               | I appreciate your thoughts. I do suspect that I speak for
               | the majority of artists and designers on this one, based
               | on the conversations I've had with them on this and the
               | very low popularity of GIMP in those worlds. (I'm coming
               | from a game dev angle, for context, so I interact with
               | artists fairly regularly. I'm also married to one!) But I
               | certainly appreciate that GIMP may be useful for you, and
               | I wouldn't wish to deny you use of that tool.
               | 
               | I love Krita; it's my graphics suite of choice for many
               | tasks. But I can't help but think that if GIMP hadn't
               | been so resistant to input from artists and designers,
               | Krita wouldn't need to exist at all. It is a tool born of
               | the lucky fact that someone _wasn 't_ satisfied with GIMP
               | and had the technical skills to do something about it.
               | 
               | With respect to your comment about innovation, I'd be
               | more inclined to agree if, y'know, GIMP had actually done
               | any of that. GIMP is not innovative, nor competitive, and
               | is unable to facilitate even fairly basic tasks for
               | contemporary artists and designers like working with CMYK
               | images. The existence of "good-enough" GIMP is a
               | hindrance to innovation in this space.
        
               | zeruch wrote:
               | "if GIMP hadn't been so resistant to input from artists
               | and designers, Krita wouldn't need to exist at all"
               | 
               | Thats not far off at all actually.
        
             | lrvick wrote:
             | I used Photoshop for 8 years, including for web
             | development, before switching to Gimp.
             | 
             | Gimp is good enough for everything one needs in web dev, is
             | free, and has a vital feature Photoshop lacks: the ability
             | to run on a Linux workstation. When developing software
             | intended for Linux servers the value of having a Linux
             | workstation to easily do local development cannot be
             | understated.
        
               | KineticArms wrote:
               | Photoshop runs fine on Linux. I pay for it and use it in
               | Wine. Gimp is hot trash and to add insult to injury it's
               | responsible for birthing Gtk; it's a fool me once fool me
               | twice thing.
               | 
               | What is this mutually shared meme-delusion that Gimp is
               | anywhere close to an adequate facsimile of Photoshop?
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | >an adequate facsimile of Photoshop
               | 
               | For some it apparently is. There are certainly talented
               | designers/artists who _really_ want an open source stack
               | who can produce excellent results using GIMP. Would I
               | encourage using GIMP if someone doesn 't care about open
               | source? Almost certainly not, but it can be used to
               | produce excellent results.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Photoshop is garbage with a randomized interface that is
               | also trying to sell you things. People think it's
               | intuitive because it's the industry standard and
               | stockholm syndrome. GIMP is bad (but improving) on print
               | color, and on non-destructive filters and layers.
               | 
               | The hyperbolic invective hurled at GIMP by Photoshop
               | users is astounding. I often spend all day in Photoshop
               | and Illustrator doing preprint and it makes me want to
               | burn Adobe to the ground every day. I would gladly never
               | look at PS again if GIMP got color right.
        
               | ryukafalz wrote:
               | > What is this mutually shared meme-delusion that Gimp is
               | anywhere close to an adequate facsimile of Photoshop?
               | 
               | It's not a facsimile of Photoshop but it serves the same
               | purpose.
               | 
               | In my experience the people who come to GIMP expecting it
               | to work exactly like Photoshop are the ones who are
               | disappointed, because it's not Photoshop. But if you use
               | it and don't expect to already know how to use it because
               | you know Photoshop, it's fine.
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Precisely. "It's fine" is the problem. It doesn't need to
               | be fine, it needs to compete with Photoshop to be a
               | serious tool in the space it serves. And what the vast,
               | vast majority of artists have said is that it is
               | insufficient for that.
               | 
               | Can you crop a photo in it? Sure, once you figure out the
               | placement of things.
               | 
               | Can you perform serious photo manipulation? Somewhat,
               | although Photoshop takes way less cognitive cost (so more
               | people can be more productive).
               | 
               | Economics of attention are important.
        
               | ryukafalz wrote:
               | > Somewhat, although Photoshop takes way less cognitive
               | cost
               | 
               | Does it take less cognitive cost because it's actually
               | easier, or because you're used to it and you're not used
               | to GIMP?
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | To be frank, I'm a regular GIMP user and have only
               | dabbled in Photoshop. However, I empathize with daily
               | drivers of the software.
               | 
               | To address you're question: elements of both.
               | 
               | As a paid service, Photoshop can afford to have developer
               | research users and improve UX. GIMP, as an open source
               | project, is subject to the (often well-placed) whims of
               | its developers, which does not have the same profit
               | motive to keep users as Photoshop.
               | 
               | This in of itself does not guarantee less cognitive load.
               | But certainly it is easier for a GIMP user to adopt
               | Photoshop than it does for a Photoshop user to adopt
               | GIMP.
               | 
               | Further, we could argue the status quo is as it is
               | because GIMP is less productive than Photoshop by at
               | least whatever Photoshop charges per month (and possibly
               | more).
        
               | troad wrote:
               | > I used Photoshop for 8 years, including for web
               | development, before switching to Gimp.
               | 
               | > Gimp is good enough for everything one needs in web
               | dev, is free, and has a vital feature Photoshop lacks:
               | the ability to run on a Linux workstation. When
               | developing software intended for Linux servers the value
               | of having a Linux workstation to easily do local
               | development cannot be understated.
               | 
               | Precisely. You're a dev for whom GIMP is "good enough".
               | If you were dissatisfied you might make a new tool, but
               | since GIMP suffices, you happily use it and see no reason
               | for anything else.
               | 
               | Meanwhile, artists and designers who work in Photoshop
               | day in and day out - the people comprising the bulk of
               | Photoshop's actual market - overwhelmingly reject GIMP,
               | and they don't generally have the capability to make a
               | new tool, so they stick with Adobe.
               | 
               | At the risk of making an imperfect analogy, imagine you
               | wrote a French textbook. French teachers overwhelmingly
               | rejected your textbook and didn't use it in their
               | classrooms. But at the same time, other language
               | professionals sometimes found it helpful for small things
               | like double checking the conjugation of some obscure
               | verb, and they'd defend it because they found it useful.
               | Is your French textbook a success? I'd say no. I'd say
               | you're not only failing your primary market, but you're
               | lulling fellow professionals into a false sense that
               | there's sufficient tools out there for that market, which
               | is doubly harmful.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | > Meanwhile, artists and designers who work in Photoshop
               | day in and day out - the people comprising the bulk of
               | Photoshop's actual market - overwhelmingly reject GIMP,
               | and they don't generally have the capability to make a
               | new tool, so they stick with Adobe.
               | 
               | That's because Photoshop was early and is an industry
               | standard, so you're going to have to learn it anyway.
               | There's no incentive to learn GIMP because it's not going
               | to cut you out of a job, and there's no incentive to move
               | your shop to GIMP because all it's going to do is
               | eliminate the massive bulk of the labor pool that is
               | unfamiliar with it.
               | 
               | Also, if you do print, the color situation in GIMP is not
               | good.
               | 
               | But the self-congratulation here is silly. The market
               | chose Photoshop because it was the only choice. The
               | market didn't place it in its position, it largely began
               | the market. The reason people choose to use it is because
               | they are choosing to eat, not because they think it's
               | better.
               | 
               | People who think it's intuitive or straightforward are
               | _very different to me_. The GIMPs feature organization is
               | far superior to PS imo, it 's just lacking a couple of
               | very large features that require being woven throughout
               | the implementations of everything in the data model, like
               | proper color management and live filtering. That's to be
               | expected from the nature of the project, because stuff
               | like that would normally be focused on by a team that
               | would consult with every other team to keep systems like
               | that consistent and debugged. Free software has to rely
               | on individual developers to get inspired to create a
               | system themselves, completely married to the current
               | design, that bolts what they're doing to every component.
               | It's hard.
               | 
               | But when we get it, no one can take it away from us. They
               | could start charging by the minute to use Photoshop
               | tomorrow.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | travisjungroth wrote:
         | I have this hunch you could break into product management by
         | product managing open source projects. You'd certainly learn
         | some good skills if you could do it. It would be pure influence
         | over authority.
        
           | smegsicle wrote:
           | if you can herd a cat, you can herd a sheep
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | They require different approaches.
             | 
             | The best way to herd cats is by a laser pointer: show a
             | clear, shining goal, and you don't need to give more
             | directions.
             | 
             | With sheep, you need to run circles around them and so
             | drive their formidable grass-cutting capacity where you
             | want it to be, slowly.
        
               | rapnie wrote:
               | Nice analogy. I like that. For the laser you likely need
               | to show an indicator for the distance to the bright red
               | spot, and break it into measurable chunks (like a
               | roadmap) to which actionable steps can be attached. Tbh a
               | cat won't do anything with that, but to the feline breed
               | of FOSS developers it may help to keep (and understand
               | the importance of) product focus. Although you might just
               | focus the bright spot on farther away objectives when the
               | felines get closer to it, to refocus their attention.
        
               | lstodd wrote:
               | Like JC said - you can shove your roadmaps where you
               | like, many people contribute exactly because they're sick
               | of roadmaps and product foci.
        
               | JonChesterfield wrote:
               | Bright light in the distance works for me. A lot of the
               | interest is in the path finding process - dead ends and
               | cycles included. A bright light in the distance that
               | someone else has broken into measurable chunks is totally
               | unappealing.
        
           | seanhunter wrote:
           | I'd be somewhat skeptical of anyone trying to product manage
           | an open source project, and I think unless you were a truly
           | exceptional product manager, most contributors would perceive
           | your contribution as net negative if you tried that. The
           | point of open source is people work on the things they want
           | to work on (for the most part, obvious exceptions apply) and
           | via a Darwinian process, what survives is the result of the
           | best ideas of the people who stick it out.
           | 
           | Open source contributions I've made have been mostly because
           | I need a certain feature or there's something that doesn't
           | quite work right etc. Eg recently I took up qubes os. I like
           | using the i3 window manager, and it had some problems on
           | qubes, so I made some small contribution (I can't even
           | remember what it was now) to fix that.
        
         | surajrmal wrote:
         | I think the key here is that open source infrastructure is
         | often built and maintained by companies, while open source
         | products are not. It takes time and effort to make things
         | successful and companies have resources to make things useful
         | that motivated groups of volunteers do not.
        
         | bsder wrote:
         | > For example, adoption of GIMP has not likely materially
         | increased over time (as a relative percent of total addressable
         | market)
         | 
         | This is an interesting question to me because Adobe only
         | recently moved to cloud/subscription fairly recently. Before
         | that, you could get a physical copy of Photoshop and keep it
         | running forever.
         | 
         | As that pathway fades, it will be interesting to see if
         | something will finally supplant Photoshop.
        
           | zamadatix wrote:
           | Hasn't it been a full decade since the last perpetually
           | licensed Photoshop?
        
             | eru wrote:
             | I guess five years ago you could still easily use a five
             | year old pirated photoshop?
        
               | sircastor wrote:
               | We have a legit PS install on my wife's machine and it's
               | preventing us from making a move to another computer for
               | her. She's a casual/non-professional user. She knows the
               | app and how to use it. We aren't interested in renting
               | the app... basically we're holding out on that machine,
               | but sooner or later it's going to become a security risk
               | in our network.
        
               | piperswe wrote:
               | At some point it might be worth looking into Affinity
               | Photo, it's a $55 (one-time, with free updates) cross-
               | platform photo manipulation program with surprising
               | feature parity with Photoshop.
        
               | Lammy wrote:
               | This is why I still use Photoshop CS3. It's the newest
               | version Adobe have released as an activation-free offline
               | installer, and it does everything I need and then some.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | Couldn't you run it in a VM?
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | Likely not, because the installation is linked to the
               | Windows or macOS installation.
               | 
               | In the case of Windows, the machine can be eventually
               | upgraded, one part at a time, into something more
               | powerful.
        
           | nocman wrote:
           | I would not call 9 years ago "recently" (March 2013 is when
           | Adobe announced it would no longer sell boxed copies of the
           | Creative Suite software).
           | 
           | Adobe obviously doesn't care. They treat their customers like
           | crap and actively try to extract as much money out of them as
           | possible. A few years ago (or less) they worded their
           | description of their monthly subscription very carefully, so
           | as to mislead people into thinking they could pay for a month
           | or two when they needed it, and then cancel. The fact was
           | that monthly _only_ allowed you to pay each month, it was
           | _still_ an annual subscription which could not be cancelled
           | without substantial early termination penalty (basically
           | paying the whole remainder of the year if my memory serves me
           | correctly). If they really cared about their customers, they
           | would have made that very clear when you signed up for
           | service. I helped a family member sign up, and there was no
           | explanation, and no warning about cancellation.
           | 
           | I wasn't thrilled about the subscription model in the first
           | place, but this family member needed access to the tool.
           | After the way that went down, I have no intention of doing
           | business with Adobe ever again. I know a lot of other people
           | who feel the same way.
           | 
           | (edited to fix a typo)
        
             | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
             | > They treat their customers like crap
             | 
             | I'm not a fan of Adobe's payment practices. But they do
             | treat us well in one regard. They give us one thing that we
             | can't get anywhere else. The best photo editing software on
             | the market.
        
               | omnimus wrote:
               | Their products havent changed in like a decade. Its
               | actually getting worse, slower and buggier.
               | 
               | Its best photo editing software because people are so
               | used to it its hard to move and everybody new has to
               | learn it because its industry standard.
               | 
               | But photo editing is not some arcane magic like it was in
               | 90s. Freaking photopea.com does what photoshop does often
               | much faster in browser. Not to mention million other
               | affinity/pixelmator/acorn native apps.
        
           | unknownaccount wrote:
           | GIMP is supposed to be a Photoshop alternative? But is
           | missing so many features which don't even seem that hard to
           | code? I always thought it was supposed to be some weird
           | middle ground between Paint and Photoshop.
        
             | hilbert42 wrote:
             | For years, I've looked to GIMP as an alternative to
             | Photoshop but now I've given up the idea. Yes, it's missing
             | many features but my main reason for dropping it is its
             | perverse operation, it's just too awkward and clumsy to
             | use.
             | 
             | I can only conclude the reason that these inherent problems
             | with GIMP have remained uncorrected for so long is that its
             | developers couldn't give a damn whether we use it or not.
             | 
             | It seems only a play toy for its cliquey developers and the
             | only reason it's available at all is that we gullible users
             | act as occasional bug detectors.
             | 
             | Sure, open software has resoure problems hence expected
             | delays but too much water has flowed under the bridge for
             | that now to be a viable excuse.
        
               | hilbert42 wrote:
               | I forgot to add the last straw for me was the removal of
               | GIMP's 'Fade' feature. I'm aware of the alterative but
               | it's not as convenient.
               | 
               | User ergonomics in software is extremely important and
               | its removal is a big anti-feature. At the time GIMP's
               | developers didn't offer an apology, they just said that's
               | the way it's going to be on 'technical grounds'.
        
               | nequo wrote:
               | What did you drop it in favor of?
        
               | hilbert42 wrote:
               | Paint.NET, Inkscape, Krita, CinePaint, ImageMagick
               | (command line - yes, it can be very useful at times), and
               | various others when certain needs dictate.
               | 
               | Also, Photoshop CS3 which is my last paid version
               | (moreover, I can still reinstall it as Adobe
               | _temporarily_ released a general version with an unlocked
               | key when it abolished the CS3 licensing server some years
               | ago).
               | 
               | I even use IrfanView viewer as it has a nice batch
               | converter (although it's no good for 48-bit work).
               | 
               | Frankly, there's no shortage of image editors even after
               | eliminating GIMP and Photoshop.
        
           | nine_k wrote:
           | I think if you want to do digital art, you use Krita, not
           | Gimp.
        
             | rapnie wrote:
             | Yes, and Blender. Both examples where productization is
             | better. Likely marketing and community building around the
             | software is much better too.
        
           | foobiekr wrote:
           | Yes. Affinity Photo and Design most likely.
           | 
           | GIMP is just awful. It's worse than any of the commercial Mac
           | paint programs including Pixelmator, acorn, etc.
        
         | hiptobecubic wrote:
         | This is also why Google sucks at so many things, despite having
         | the best offering on paper. GCP is honestly great, but a
         | terrible product. Stadia? Zillion chat apps? Google Inbox by
         | Gmail by Google? Google wallet pay Android pay wallet? They all
         | work great and would be best in class if they were decent
         | _products_ and you could figure out how to get them to work at
         | all.
        
           | threatofrain wrote:
           | Why is GCP bad?
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | Personally I'm real suspicious from the time I was on a
             | project using AppEngine, we got sandwiched between Google
             | deciding "1 year" was an appropriate time to declare
             | AppEngine v1 deprecated, but AppEngine v2 was still in
             | "beta" and was removing a bunch of APIs we depended on,
             | while basically saying "oh yeah, setup something
             | _completely different_ if you want something like this "
             | (appengine datastore or whatever vs. "it's gone, um, redis
             | maybe?")
             | 
             | So we were stuck with a product which we were writing
             | against something that the official word was would no
             | longer be supported by the time we launched, while being
             | told to develop against the platform which is "beta" and
             | they don't want to commit to supporting the feature set of
             | - and which plain couldn't be used yet at the time they
             | told us this.
             | 
             | This is just a ridiculous way to run a commercial platform
             | offering (aka: why I always tell people to use boring VMs
             | for as long as possible).
        
             | trog wrote:
             | For me it's partially because the interface is insanely
             | slow and painful to use. Maybe this is a "I'm in Australia"
             | problem but it feels like I'm wading through mud to perform
             | the most basic tasks.
        
             | dasz wrote:
             | I think the usual retort is that at any moment and for any
             | inexplicable reason your entire infrastructure can be
             | _deleted_ for some reason you barely know let alone
             | comprehend. This seems to be the case for apps at least.
             | 
             | I neither support nor deny this belief but it's an
             | increasingly common impression.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | GCP tends to be designed for customers that are staffed
             | with mostly Google engineers.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Source? This comment seems absurd, at best. I am no
               | 'google engineer' (is that supposed to be a bad thing?)
               | and I've been using and loving GCP for well over a
               | decade. Built several extremely successful businesses on
               | it.
        
               | jack_pp wrote:
               | I suspect that if at some point you had an issue with it
               | you would've been frustrated as hell by your inability to
               | do anything about it and would've sworn them off forever.
               | But you were the survivor that didn't have issues and
               | can't seem to comprehend that as a business it is absurd
               | to rely on a company that can kill you off without reason
               | or recourse because you were the unlucky one that pissed
               | off the algorithm.
               | 
               | You're right, it is FUD, but it's not malicious FUD
               | spread by us to spite google, it is actually _rational_
               | FUD based on real reports that is entirely google 's
               | fault
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Shrug, seems like an inherent risk with any SaaS
               | provider. I worked for a large porn company and a web
               | analytics product, we were one of the largest customers
               | of, got sold to a Mormon company. Our account was
               | terminated.
               | 
               | I guess I'm lucky that I haven't pissed off the GCP algo
               | yet.
        
               | bruce511 wrote:
               | >> seems like an inherent risk with any SaaS provider.
               | 
               | If you see risk as binary, then yes there is risk in any
               | SaaS provider, or indeed any part of your company supply
               | chain. Risk though is not binary, it is measured on a
               | scale of 0 to 1.
               | 
               | There is risk every time you get in a car. But some cars
               | are safer than others. Some are renowned for putting
               | safety first.
               | 
               | The vast majority of people survived their Ford Pinto, no
               | doubt some loved it, but the perceived risk of driving it
               | (rightly or wrongly) was higher than say a Volvo.
               | 
               | Google is the Pinto of SaaS. Whatever the actual risks
               | are, they are perceived as being higher risk than other
               | SaaS providers. Thanks to their "no support" policy, the
               | penalty for failure is total extinction. With most SaaS
               | businesses there are humans in the loop who can make
               | human decisions.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | > Google is the Pinto of SaaS
               | 
               | That's some strong personal opinion... source?
               | 
               | GCP has been extremely performant and reliable for me
               | across several different companies.
               | 
               | I'm not saying that people have definitely run into
               | issues, which we've all read about here on HN, but this
               | sounds more like squeaky wheel than the norm.
               | 
               | > Thanks to their "no support" policy,
               | 
               | Their support has been excellent, when I've needed it,
               | which is rare, since it has just worked for me very well
               | for a decade now. Their documentation is also pretty well
               | done too. Just like with any sort of SaaS solution, you
               | should be building a relationship with an account exec.
               | 
               | I've had CloudFlare start to put in weird restrictions on
               | my account once I hit a certain size. It showed up with
               | requests being oddly denied and zero notification. I
               | contacted my account manager (called their cell phone!)
               | and the problem was resolved in a few hours. I don't even
               | pay for a business plan, but I did make sure to develop a
               | friendly relationship with them when they originally
               | reached out to me.
        
               | jdeibele wrote:
               | Father lost his Gmail account and his Google Fi account.
               | [0] Which means that he was locked out of a lot of other
               | accounts because he couldn't access his email or SMS
               | messages.
               | 
               | I figure Google knows how to protect against attacks way
               | better than a random email provider. I enrolled in their
               | Advanced Protection Program [1] because I don't want my
               | email taken over. I've used a Google Voice number
               | deliberately because somebody can't walk into Verizon or
               | AT&T and get my number.
               | 
               | The idea that there's absolutely no recourse if Google
               | decides I'm a bad guy. Especially since they sometimes
               | seem to target associated accounts - are all of the
               | family accounts going to be cancelled, too?
               | 
               | I don't think Apple's security is as good but I'm also
               | not qualified to judge that. And at least I can talk to
               | support on the phone or go into a store. So I'm moving my
               | email that way over time.
               | 
               | [0]https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/22/goo
               | gle-cs...
               | [1]https://landing.google.com/advancedprotection/
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | The thread is about GCP, not about the rest of the Google
               | products.
        
               | bruce511 wrote:
               | >> That's some strong personal opinion... source?
               | 
               | It's absolutely personal perception. Ford made a couple
               | millions Pintos, I never had one, much less saw one
               | explode in a fireball, but I'm not rushing out to buy one
               | either.
               | 
               | My perception is borne from a long history of reading
               | stories here. Over time they create a perception in me
               | that Google regularly drops products, changes APIs,
               | changes pricing, closes accounts, withholds earnings and
               | so on.
               | 
               | I'm sure millions of people happily use their services.
               | However my perception of risk with Google is high, so as
               | a result I don't use any (paid) Google services and I
               | take my business elsewhere. Obviously I use Google
               | search, and watch YouTube, but I'm happy to not put
               | Google in my supply-chain, nor rely on them for revenue.
               | 
               | Now maybe it's just bad PR. Maybe Google has real lower
               | risk than say someone else. Maybe Pintos were
               | statistically safer than a Volvo. But perception is
               | everything, and my perception is that, given a choice,
               | I'm not going to use GCP.
        
               | lokar wrote:
               | IME this perception is based on customers using the self
               | service/cc versions of the service.
               | 
               | If what you are doing is important get a sales rep and
               | invoice billing. This is actually tru of any service, but
               | Google is particularly bad. You don't want to be caught
               | up in their automated fight against fraud and abuse
        
               | seanhunter wrote:
               | This "well over a decade" claim needs some qualification.
               | GCP only became gevnerally available in Nov 2011. Before
               | that, there was App Engine and Cloud Storage, but not
               | GCP.
        
               | antaviana wrote:
               | Do you mean they should have said instead "within 9
               | months after GCP became generally available" to be more
               | precise in their statement?
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | I jumped onto AppEngine as soon as I saw it announced
               | (probably here on HN). Probably sometime around late
               | 2009.
               | 
               | Quickly convinced my friend Jeff to get onto it... we saw
               | a need for a datastore wrapper and he (and I a tiny bit)
               | wrote Objectify, which is one of the most widely used
               | tools for AppEngine out there.
               | 
               | Look at the license.txt... Feb 6, 2010, 13 years old...
               | 
               | https://github.com/objectify/objectify
        
               | jedberg wrote:
               | What they're saying is that Google is opinionated. They
               | determine that their way is the right way and you will do
               | it their way. As opposed to Microsoft and Amazon, who
               | both ask their customers, "how do you want to solve this
               | problem?" and then build what the customers want.
               | 
               | If the way Google has decided you should build something
               | happens to work for you, great, but for most people, they
               | want a product built around how they like to operate, not
               | get told how to do it.
        
               | lrem wrote:
               | I work in Google and think I can share: in fact we _do_
               | ask our users a lot. To the point that I would be very
               | surprised if any major development in GCP is allowed _at
               | all_ without extensive focus groups, or coming out of
               | cooperation with some major customer.
        
               | jedberg wrote:
               | Maybe lately, but certainly not at first. I was one of
               | those early customers, and when I would say, "We want to
               | do it like this", they would say, "Well we think this is
               | how it should be done" and then ignore me. So yeah, they
               | talked to customers, and just told them they were wrong.
               | 
               | But also Google has a trust issue. I think GCP makes a
               | superior product, but I would never use it. I'd be afraid
               | that one of my former employees leaves the company, does
               | something Google doesn't like, and they shut down my
               | entire GCP account because my gmail is associated with
               | the gmail of someone who did something bad, even though
               | they don't work for me anymore. (Yes, this is a real
               | thing that happened)
               | 
               | I can't trust Google not to just shut down my account and
               | then give me no human to talk to to get it fixed.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Just because they disagreed with you doesn't mean they
               | are bad.
               | 
               | > I think GCP makes a superior product
               | 
               | Exactly. They do.
               | 
               | The rest is mostly just conjecture. The loudest wheels
               | get the most notice... there are plenty of other people,
               | like myself, who have been using GCP for a long time
               | without any drama. It just works.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | I think that early days they were more opinionated. The
               | design of the datastore is extremely google centric
               | scale. Exposing it to end users was a matter of just
               | "learn to use it, or not".
               | 
               | AppEngine had a lot of limitations, like the version of
               | Java you could use, because they had to basically hack at
               | the JVM to get it secure enough.
               | 
               | These days though, things like Cloud Functions, are
               | effectively just simple containers and http endpoints. I
               | could move them off to another provider with a days work.
        
           | ngrilly wrote:
           | You're cherry-picking examples. Google Search, Gmail, Google
           | Maps and Chrome are extraordinarily successful products.
        
             | latexr wrote:
             | Depending on one's point, it can be argued that listing
             | Google's successful products is the cherry-picking:
             | https://killedbygoogle.com/
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Why would you argue? Selecting only the successes is the
               | literal definition of cherry-picking. I'd say that every
               | one of those cherries is very arguable, though,
               | especially if one's definition of successful has any
               | relation to being profitable.
        
             | ThalesX wrote:
             | Being such succesful products, all of these taken together
             | probably generate sufficient income to cover Google's Ad
             | business...
        
               | Closi wrote:
               | > Being such succesful products, all of these taken
               | together probably generate sufficient income to cover
               | Google's Ad business...
               | 
               | Assuming this post is sarcasm, Are we really going to
               | criticise Google Search for not being profitable?
               | 
               | Google has an ad business _because_ of these products,
               | not seperate to them.
        
               | grey_earthling wrote:
               | I'd say that Google has these products (really, services)
               | because of its ad business, not the other way round.
               | 
               | Someone more familiar with Google's oeuvre can probably
               | answer this: all those well-liked services that Google
               | unceremoniously cancelled -- were they the ones that
               | didn't help (or harmed) Google's ad business?
        
               | marginalia_nu wrote:
               | Google doesn't have an ad-business, it _is_ an ad-
               | business.
               | 
               | You can't separate Google from its ad business. All of
               | their major products exist in service of the ad business,
               | search, inbox, even Chrome. If the services don't exist
               | to help build a profile of you, they exist to help build
               | a profile of web traffic and detect ad-fraud, or to
               | simply shape the landscape into one that isn't hostile to
               | google's ads.
        
           | osigurdson wrote:
           | It feels like someone with great ideas started working on
           | Gmail and quit before it was finished. Whatever they are
           | doing to organize emails in a "smart" way is super confusing.
           | I kind of get it but it just doesn't work. They should either
           | finish it or just revert back to organizing emails by date of
           | arrival.
        
             | galaxyLogic wrote:
             | I was trying to find sent mail and only way I found it was
             | by searching mail where I was the sender.
             | 
             | Smart but not obvious.
        
             | butterNaN wrote:
             | I switched to basic HTML gmail the moment it tried to
             | predict what I wanted to type (often incorrectly, which
             | worsened my experience)
             | 
             | I sometimes accidentally open the 'modern' view and it
             | feels so bloated. Everything is so against intuition, it
             | feels like someone's fresh-out-of-marketing-school design.
        
             | singhrac wrote:
             | Gmail quality dropped off a cliff all of a sudden. In
             | particular, many _many_ emails get sent to spam now,
             | including emails sent by Google itself! Notifications about
             | calendar invites regularly get sent to spam at inconvenient
             | times.
             | 
             | I can't tell if this is just some sort of temporary spam
             | filter tweaking error and oversight or an emergent property
             | of a content-based filtering system that they won't revert.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | Funny, I have the opposite problem, which could actually
               | explain _your_ problem.
               | 
               | I _never_ used to get spam through GMail 's filters, but
               | in the last six-ish months I now get a couple every day.
               | They're almost always the same format, too - frequently
               | just a link, and often coming from an outlook.com email
               | address.
               | 
               | So a possible hypothesis is that spammers got good at
               | evading GMail's filter, so in tweaking it to catch these
               | new spam techniques they could be causing more false
               | positives.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | I've been getting lots of extra spam and it particularly
               | seems like anything with "invoice" in the text won't get
               | sent to spam.
        
               | lrem wrote:
               | Funny, I have neither. But think your analysis makes
               | sense too and I just got lucky.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | I have observed the same thing. I _never_ saw a single
               | spam message in years. Suddenly I am seeing strikingly
               | obvious ones at the same frequency you are. This must be
               | on Google's plate to fix. Surely they see it.
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | > Surely they see it.
               | 
               | Do you use the Report Spam button? Because that is how
               | they see it.
        
               | ectopod wrote:
               | I use Thunderbird. Does gmail take notice of me moving
               | messages to the spam folder?
               | 
               | (Question not directed at you specifically.)
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | As a Thunderbird user too,I would love to know the answer
               | as well.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | Every damn time. But until the issue is resolved, I will
               | assume that button is just a NOP designed to make people
               | feel good.
        
               | grey_earthling wrote:
               | Would fixing it improve their ad business?
               | 
               | I'm still surprised by how often people (not necessarily
               | you!) forget about misaligned purposes: your purpose for
               | using Gmail is to have a good email service; Google's
               | purpose for running Gmail is to make money, _not_
               | necessarily by providing a good email service.
               | 
               | When purposes misalign like that, you get users
               | bewildered about why such a competent company would be
               | "incapable" of providing a less crappy service.
               | 
               | Compare with Thunderbird: they make money to pay the
               | bills but no-one's getting rich. Their only way of
               | getting money is by building a good email client -- by
               | building features that companies will pay them to build;
               | or by making a general-purpose email client good enough
               | that users will donate.
               | 
               | (I know Thunderbird is not directly equivalent because
               | it's just a client, not an email server, but the email
               | client part is comparable.)
        
               | cal85 wrote:
               | When?
        
             | butterNaN wrote:
             | I switched to basic HTML gmail the moment it tried to
             | predict what I wanted to type (incorrectly, I should add).
             | 
             | I sometimes accidentally open the 'modern' view and it
             | feels so bloated. Everything is so against intuition, it
             | feels like someone's fresh-out-of-marketing-school design.
        
             | v3ss0n wrote:
             | Paul Buchheit was core developer of gmail , who left gmail
             | in 2006 - where its become shitty afterwards. He founded
             | friendfeed and then got acquired by Facebook - and he left
             | facebook to become angel investor / he is also main Partner
             | of YC . he invested in many great startups like Twitch . On
             | the opensource part , he build tornado web framework which
             | is really important async framework for python ecosystem.
             | Jupyter is built on top of tornado . He is active in
             | HackerNews .
        
             | sosborn wrote:
             | It always amuses me that we try to complicate things that
             | should just be a simple list ordered by date.
        
             | bambax wrote:
             | > _just revert back to organizing emails by date of
             | arrival_
             | 
             | You can choose to do that: Settings / General /
             | Conversation view off
             | 
             | It's so much better to simply have emails in the order they
             | arrive instead of hunting them down in "conversations".
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I understand that emails can get buried but threaded
               | views are _so_ much better for me (especially at work)
               | than my inbox being buried by conversations /threads that
               | I have zero interest in. My alternative would probably be
               | to more aggressively filter but that would effectively
               | mean I never even saw lots of things I might actually
               | care about.
        
           | samstave wrote:
           | Dont forget Goog literally owened the anti spam industry with
           | gmail after their integrating POSTINI purchase in like ~~2006
           | 
           | And now in 2022 any gmailinbox is fn full of spam...
        
             | lstodd wrote:
             | Because you have to support products, esp. antispam, while
             | goog is generaly known for doing the other thing.
        
               | samstave wrote:
               | Uh, they literally paid MILLIONS for the antispam company
               | POSTINI and thats what the original anti-spam features
               | for GMAIL are based on... in the last 18 months or
               | something, google apparently deleted that tech from their
               | stack, I posted about this when I first started having so
               | much spam inbox my gmail....
               | 
               | So yeah - THEY _supported_ the product by paying millions
               | for it...
               | 
               | Then they did "the other thing"
        
         | grandrew wrote:
         | Thank you for brilliant comment highligthing the OSS issues.
         | 
         | But I believe you're missing the main point that OP is making:
         | OSS will _statistically_ dominate every single niche.
         | 
         | There are just more reasons why non-OSS software would cease to
         | exist - so eventually Inkscape will become a de-facto standard
         | for Illustrator things; Blender will become de-facto standard
         | of all 3D-Max things; OBS will become a de-facto standard of
         | all Macromedia Flash Broadcast ... oh wait ... did that happen
         | already?
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | >open source as a whole sucks at building products, but is
         | great at building infrastructure. (and pretty good at
         | infrastructure products).
         | 
         | Oh This is Great. Thank You. Will have to bookmark your
         | comment. Perfectly describe something I have in my mind but
         | couldn't quite put it into precise wordings.
         | 
         | Open Source works, and its desired in infrastructure because
         | everyone relies on them. And its common interest align with
         | everyone.
         | 
         | If we look at the all the success we have in Open Source, most
         | of them are not even on the list. SQLite, MySQL / Postgres, all
         | the Networking Libraries, WebKit / Blink, FFmpeg, GNU Compiler
         | / LLVM, Apache / Nginx etc, etc. Not only are they the dominant
         | position or with substantial market share, they are also all
         | infrastructure related.
        
         | maire wrote:
         | Engineers continually discount the importance of usability.
         | 
         | The easy applications to convert to open source are those that
         | the developer of the application is the user of the
         | application. The easiest example is Bitkeeper to GIT
         | conversion. The person who wrote GIT is the same person who
         | used Bitkeeper. Therefore he knew what would be usable for a
         | developer.
         | 
         | GIMP vs Blender is the counter example. Both GIMP and Blender
         | are targeted at artists and not developers. The author assumes
         | the awesomeness of Blender is inevitable. But GIMP is pretty
         | bad and shows no evidence that it is getting better. Yet - when
         | major animation studios decided to adopt Blender they dedicated
         | UX resources to Blender to make it more usable for artists.
         | 
         | When the developer is not the user, you need that extra step.
        
           | jstummbillig wrote:
           | > Engineers continually discount the importance of usability.
           | 
           | The real issue, unfortunately, is worse: It's a lack of
           | empathy for the user.
           | 
           | Usability need no explaining to an engineer. You have your
           | 500$ mechanical keyboard. You your carefully crafted .vscode
           | and you lust for that e-ink monitor.
           | 
           | Unfortunately, you don't understand that you are different to
           | the average user of the thing you are working on and in that
           | thing you are working on, your job is to serve the user.
           | 
           | To be fair, this is not a struggle unique to engineers, far
           | from it. Professions, that is very adamant about conveying
           | this during training are teachers, therapists (and I
           | explicitly don't include physicians, although they can be)
           | and, to a wildly varying degree because of what the job means
           | nowadays, designers.
           | 
           | People working in most other professions default suck at
           | this.
        
       | hiccuphippo wrote:
       | Next I want to see the TTASC. Time till Amazon SaaS Clone.
        
       | KronisLV wrote:
       | > It won't happen overnight, it will start out as a poor
       | alternative, but slowly growing to become the robust and cheap
       | (in fact, free!) solution that everyone uses.
       | 
       | I'm not sure about that: plenty of people/orgs are okay with
       | using software that someone else will be responsible for running
       | and managing and therefore won't be interested in self-hosted
       | offerings (though one could feasibly argue that there could be
       | managed open source offerings).
       | 
       | In my org, I offered to help with self-hosted
       | Mattermost/Rocket.Chat or another chat solution, since that would
       | allow for a centralized platform for all of the company
       | developers to get in touch and organically self-organize into
       | interest groups, thus easing the friction of communication.
       | 
       | And yet, nobody was interested in setting aside the resources for
       | an instance and getting everyone on board, so the plan never
       | materialized, even though I also run my own instances for
       | personal projects etc. So in the end people stuck around on
       | multiple distributed Skype/Slack/Teams and possibly other chat
       | solutions, it all being a bit too fragmented and sometimes there
       | even being message history limits to deal with.
        
       | orbital223 wrote:
       | It's amusing that, according to the article, there has been a
       | "compelling open source alternative to" twitter since 2016. Yet,
       | the ending of the article is a request for the reader to share
       | the article on... twitter.
        
         | fsflover wrote:
         | Mastodon technically works pretty well but lacks sufficient
         | marketing and suffers from the network effect.
        
         | zupa-hu wrote:
         | Lol what a nugget! Summarizes the article pretty well.
        
       | curious_cat_163 wrote:
       | Assertion 1: "All software will be open source, " Assertion 2:
       | "and no one will make money with software."
       | 
       | The data on the page only demonstrates the first assertion, at
       | best. Even that should come with a caveat of distinction between
       | the software itself and the business model around it that makes
       | it sticky.
       | 
       | There is absolutely no reason why open source software couldn't
       | make money.
        
       | paulryanrogers wrote:
       | This rings true for all my personal products. Last one I built
       | and soft launched quietly. Then within a year there was a FOSS
       | project covering the same killer feature, that none of my
       | commercial competitors had (or have yet). Previous product had a
       | FOSS alternative within six months.
        
       | Axsuul wrote:
       | Lots of wrong assumptions here but the most egregious of them
       | all:
       | 
       | > If your closed software demands $1000 from my pocket but I can
       | make do with a free and open source alternative, I will choose
       | the open one.
       | 
       | Sorry but software purchasing decisions aren't simply based on
       | cost and never will.
        
         | fsloth wrote:
         | Indeed! Especially big corps seem to prefer software with clear
         | licensing terms and a capability to license software for
         | organization at scale. In that competition the software with
         | better licensing options win, not the cheaper one necessarily.
         | 
         | And the cheaper software is cheaper only if you apply no cost
         | to retraining, taking the product in use in your existing
         | production pipeline and so on.
         | 
         | This writing is not very well put together and ignores several
         | facets of large corporations.
        
       | donio wrote:
       | Netscape Navigator -> Mosaic: -692 days       Slack -> IRC: -9102
       | days
       | 
       | Yeah, I know that there are obvious feature differences but the
       | list also has entries like BitKeeper -> Git and ManyCam -> OBS
       | which are just as skewed.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | parksy wrote:
       | All power to the author and the passion for open source is
       | admirable, I just don't think we'll be seeing a world in "a
       | couple more decades" where all software will be open source.
       | 
       | The assertions in the opening sentences seem flawed due to
       | selection bias in the supporting data. Out of the entire universe
       | of software, the subset of examples are hand-picked pairings of
       | commercial + open source software. There is little consideration
       | given to the abundance of software without an open source
       | alternative, whether the selected alternatives had meaningful
       | impact on market share, products that started out as open source
       | only to be outcompeted by a commercial clone of the work, etc.
       | 
       | Anecdotally I've seen many commercial products copy innovations
       | from open source alternatives. Could it be possible that having
       | an open source alternative provides a risk-free and cost-free
       | testbed for innovation? Open source software could in fact be a
       | boon to an established product. Anyone considering starting an
       | open source product would want to be aware of this threat to
       | their success. Definitely a more in-depth study would be required
       | to establish any sort of certainty.
       | 
       | I've worked on projects across many industries and am no longer
       | surprised by the abundance of niche proprietary use-cases where
       | the established product is deeply ingrained in the very culture
       | of the job, where an open-source alternative would require
       | extremely deep domain knowledge and years of development (in many
       | industries where having development skills is rare). For someone
       | to come along and attempt to make an open source alternative,
       | they would need to be dissatisfied with the commercial product,
       | have the domain expertise, and be a competent developer with time
       | and resources to build an open source alternative, and then have
       | to battle against the momentum of literally everyone being
       | trained and used to using the existing toolchain. That's not even
       | considering that many algorithms are proprietary so simply
       | building an open source replacement runs the risk of infringing
       | IP.
       | 
       | Whatever the use-case, and aside from academic or passion
       | projects, all software development arises out of necessity. In
       | these niches, it's usually a desire to improve accuracy, reduce
       | time spent on repetitive and arduous tasks, and generally just
       | de-risk and improve efficiency. These needs generally arise in-
       | house, and where no solution exists, companies will contract a
       | developer or outsource to an agency and subsequently retain the
       | IP for competitive advantage or license out its use.
       | 
       | In order for open source to truly replace all commercial
       | software, the entire culture surrounding this would need to
       | change, and this is not a software problem but a social and
       | economic one, and without a paradigm shift I think the status quo
       | is more likely to continue - as long as there are businesses
       | competing in diverse and niche technical fields, proprietary
       | software will continue to be built.
        
       | woleium wrote:
       | it happens the other way too. I used to contribute to a small ssl
       | VPN project (adito) that was 'aquired' by barracuda networks. It
       | was forked and picked up by OpenVPN (as openvpn-als) but
       | development stopped. I believe it's still updated internally and
       | forms part of Barracudas firewall offering.
        
       | balaji1 wrote:
       | There is a reverse transition to monetize the open-source
       | versions with a hosted-service also. Lot more products being
       | built "in the open" these days.
       | 
       | Anyway, it is kinda interesting to see that it doesn't take long
       | for copies of a new tech to show up. Zero-to-one seems sporadic,
       | but immediately we see the market replicate it.
       | 
       | Recently seen with something seemingly complex like DALL-E.
       | Didn't take long for the comparables to crop up. Some of them
       | must be open-source, I am not aware of that aspect.
       | 
       | Apple Airpods was another one. Almost within a year, there were
       | other earphones available in that form-factor.
        
       | rajko_rad wrote:
       | Wow this is awesome data!
       | 
       | I wrote about this trend at some point last year btw:
       | https://rajko-rad.medium.com/the-rise-of-open-source-challen...
        
       | netmonk wrote:
       | Why would it be wrong to earn money selling software ? Or why is
       | it good that you earn less and less money for writing and
       | publishing software ? I don't get it.
       | 
       | Working for free is the new normal ?
        
         | opan wrote:
         | It's perhaps wrong because there is no limit on supply,
         | infinite copies can be made. To charge for such a thing doesn't
         | reflect the cost to make or acquire the software.
         | 
         | However, usually people are talking about free as in freedom,
         | and cost is simply irrelevant. There's proprietary freeware as
         | well as free software that is sold. It's about what rights the
         | copyright holder grants the users via a license. You can sell
         | your friend a CD with Emacs on it for $5. It is not forbidden.
        
       | jldugger wrote:
       | what happens when the trend crosses into negative territory? Do
       | we start calling it "time to commercialization?"
        
       | emrah wrote:
       | Being an alternative does not mean one product will replace
       | another. GIMP will never replace or kill Photoshop. It will be an
       | alternative sure, like tea, coffee, beer are
       | alternatives/substitutes for water.
       | 
       | GIMP has sort of similar functionality but nowhere near the same
       | polish or community or marketing or simply $$$ behind it.
       | 
       | OSS can only kill and replace closed/paid products where it can
       | match the factors I mentioned above that goes beyond functional
       | parity.
        
       | albertop wrote:
       | I have yet to see open source alternative with UX that is better
       | than original.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | bash(1) has a better UX than the original sh(1).
        
         | jefftk wrote:
         | Firefox > IE (introduced tabbed browsing and pop-up blocking)
        
         | landofredwater wrote:
         | I'd argue in favor of Blender. While complex, it uses very
         | strong features and gives you lots of freedom to do as you
         | wish.
        
           | pjmlp wrote:
           | Blender is not a clone of anything, it started as commercial
           | product.
        
       | newbieuser wrote:
       | I don't understand what you want to explain in the monetization
       | part. For example, things like hasura, supabase are open source.
       | but they can make money by selling their own services. and there
       | are other examples like this. I think the author's point of view
       | is too romantic
        
       | kybernetyk wrote:
       | Many of those alternatives aren't really an alternative a
       | professional would use.
        
       | bawolff wrote:
       | The table is questionable.
       | 
       | Firefox isnt an alternative to netscape, its literally a fork.
       | 
       | Why is 7zip the alternative to winzip and not gzip?
       | 
       | Etc
        
       | peeters wrote:
       | It'd be interesting to follow up each of these entries with what
       | _actually_ superceded the original in terms of market share.
       | 
       | "Original"/OSS/Current:
       | 
       | Office/OpenOffice/Google Docs
       | 
       | WinZip/7-zip/Whatever archive utility is bundled with your OS
       | 
       | Windows Media Player/VLC/Online Streaming
       | 
       | Netscape/Firefox/Chrome
       | 
       | In all but a few of the other cases (e.g. OBS), the original
       | hasn't lost an ounce of market share to the "alternative".
       | 
       | I guess what I'm saying is the data seems to show that the threat
       | to paid software isn't OSS alternatives, it's commercial
       | competition.
        
       | ofrzeta wrote:
       | Open Cascade is not an (open source) alternative to AutoCAD. Also
       | there is none. (people talk about OpenSCAD and FreeCAD but
       | neither of them are comparable to AutoCAD).
        
         | aothms wrote:
         | True. Came here to say that. QCAD is somewhat of an alternative
         | to AutoCAD. OpenCASCADE is a foss alternative to e.g ACIS or
         | Parasolid.
         | 
         | It's potentially important as there aren't that many projects
         | from the 80s in the list, so maybe has an impact on the trend
         | line.
         | 
         | (a trend line that would look similar if you look at time
         | between proprietary alternatives I guess... a fact of the
         | increasing amount of time spent on software engineering?)
        
         | fsloth wrote:
         | Yes, this comparison is extremely weird. The author did not
         | really do his homework. It's like saying libpng is a
         | replacement for Photoshop.
         | 
         | To clarify: Autocad is a CAD suite used for 2D and 3D drawing
         | production. In addition to that, it is used as an
         | implementation platform for a large number of third party
         | domain specific software for engineering disciplines that need
         | more intelligence on top of the basic Autocad - HVAC planning,
         | civil construction and so on.
         | 
         | OpenCascade is a geometry modeling kernel - a c++ library with
         | no "end user" gui functionality or database. Yes, such a thing
         | is a critical part in a software like Autocad, but only one
         | small part.
        
       | vouaobrasil wrote:
       | I feel like there's one area where open-source cannot universally
       | replace closed-source: complex products that need to be extremely
       | polished. Some people might be able to swap, but not everyone. An
       | example is the desktop: I've used Linux for over a decade and
       | still do but I recently added an M1 Mac and the hardware+software
       | is just so much better for certain kinds of content creation.
       | Video editing is another. I've tried a dozen video editors and
       | while Shotcut is one of the best open-source ones, it's blown
       | away by Davinci Resolve.
       | 
       | Raw photo editing is another area. Open-source has achieved some
       | success here with darktable, and I personally use that, but it
       | certainly can't (easily) replace some closed-source alternatives
       | for everyone, especially in some more commercial photography
       | settings.
        
       | wellbehaved wrote:
       | I think open source is a kind of compensation for the fact that
       | our political economy doesn't create meritocracies, analogous to
       | how when one part of your body is injured some other part
       | compensates. The compensation isn't "good" in the sense that it's
       | bad to be injured and therefore to need it, but without the
       | compensation things would be even worse.
        
       | heisenbit wrote:
       | The analysis has a gap when it comes to products vs. solutions. A
       | lot of problems these days are not solved by a big product but by
       | integrating smaller often open source building blocks. Solutions
       | that preempt products (or are never turned into products). The
       | products of old and the market they lived in were different. It
       | is not just that open source grew with respect to capabilities -
       | the other side shrank too.
        
       | aetherspawn wrote:
       | Not on that list, an actual open-source alternative to Confluence
       | and JIRA, and all of its features/plugins :(
       | 
       | i.e. Agile mode board, sprints, multi-project/issue keys,
       | timesheets/time tracking, source control integration, epics and
       | release management
       | 
       | Yes, some exist, but our experience is that practically none are
       | as easy to use or feature complete as Confluence and JIRA.
       | 
       | (i.e. Not in the way that GitLab could be classed as a feature
       | complete alternative to GitHub)
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | I was just talking to another ex-Googler today, and he has a
       | simple explanation for why products keep getting worse
       | (especially Google's, but not just them):
       | 
       |  _PMs gotta get promoted_
       | 
       | New PM inherits a successful product. They can't get promoted if
       | all they do is keep it healthy and growing. No, they have to make
       | a radical change, even if the product doesn't need it, and in
       | fact their radical change makes it worse.
       | 
       | I could present examples of "fixing what isn't broken" but it
       | would probably just be a dive into the deep end.
       | 
       | In any case, though, Mr. Staltz is wrong. Making a product usable
       | is an art, and OSS projects very seldom have it. There is no one
       | (a PM, oddly enough) to say "no, your new feature is stupid and
       | doesn't fit with the rest of the product."
       | 
       | As other people have noted, this applies mainly to user-facing
       | products. The developers do an 80% job and then split, and no one
       | wants to do the shit work that comprises the other 20%.
       | 
       | This is not to defend stupid, greedy companies like Adobe, by the
       | way. But yes, GIMP does suck, as many people have pointed out.
        
       | cristiioan wrote:
       | The way he calculated this duration is wrong. He associated
       | FossCord as a Discord alternative, but Matrix was the true
       | discord alternative.
        
       | gregmac wrote:
       | > all software will be open source
       | 
       | There's a heck of a lot of "boring business software" out there,
       | often quite niche, solving problems various businesses have.
       | Anything that survives, just by virtue it has survived, has a
       | positive ROI for everyone involved, including the customer.
       | 
       | Where is the supposed alternative going to come from?
       | 
       | Are people being paid to write that software suddenly going to
       | stop and go build it for free? Are there random people that will
       | suddenly develop an interest in figuring out how to automate
       | filling out a bunch of Mississippi state government permit
       | request forms, or how to convert an obsolete file format that's
       | only used in the gas industry to another obsolete file format and
       | FTP it somewhere, or how to convert customer orders to a cut
       | lists used by a multi-million dollar industrial machine of which
       | less than 100 exist in the world?
       | 
       | Are the customers (businesses) going to suddenly decide to hire
       | up an engineering team and build this themselves, at probably
       | higher cost than they pay today and definitely at way higher
       | risk? Maybe they'll get together with a bunch of businesses with
       | similar needs -- aka their competitors -- and pool their
       | resources to build something?
       | 
       | I think none of this will happen -- or will happen in such
       | exceedingly rare circumstances it's not worth considering.
       | 
       | Which means I'm pretty confident to say there will _always_ be
       | proprietary software.
        
         | bruce511 wrote:
         | I completely agree. We operate in a space where we rent out our
         | proprietary software to businesses to solve a mundane business
         | requirement. We wrote our own software.
         | 
         | We compete with other companies, some have their own (or some
         | exclusivity) others make use of a generic package (closed
         | source, but they supply anyone who wants to be in this space.)
         | 
         | Yes, having unique software means we can do things others
         | can't. But really we're selling "the whole package" of which
         | the software is only a tiny part. Mostly our customers are
         | paying for service, support, statutory updates and so on. They
         | are paying us to be around when they need us. That may be
         | tomorrow, or 10 years from now, but our existence ultimately
         | matters to them.
         | 
         | Maybe one day there will be viable OSS in our space, it may
         | already exist. But if it does, no-one here is selling it, or
         | supporting it. If someone does make it we, and any number of
         | our existing compeditors, can happily pivot to it, with our
         | existing sales and support infrastructure.
         | 
         | It turns out that having a unique product helps our sales
         | process. We can differentiate on more than just price. But
         | ultimately customers want support not source code.
        
         | musicale wrote:
         | Most app store revenue comes from games. Some games (such as
         | some puzzle games) are easy to clone and replace, but many are
         | not.
         | 
         | More energy seems to be put into emulation of proprietary games
         | than creation of new open source games.
        
           | melagonster wrote:
           | game is a artwork, artists don't work like programmers, so
           | currently open source mode don't work for them.
        
           | pjmlp wrote:
           | Because users actually pay for games.
        
       | zaroth wrote:
       | I'm confused...
       | 
       | There are no rows in the table for proprietary software that
       | hasn't been OSA'd, and the rows that are there take no head of
       | market size or adoption rates of the alternative.
       | 
       | Therefore the chart can only possibly trend downwards because the
       | X axis is a date from the past until 'today' and the y axis is
       | the number of days since that date that something pretty
       | arbitrary happened.
       | 
       | Think of the X axis as "Days Since 1970" (0 - ~11,500). The
       | maximum Y value is bounded by y = 11,500 - x.
        
       | indus wrote:
       | Whoever the eff wrote this is an effing genius. I have been
       | thinking about this for sometime how majority of the saas
       | businesses will be taken over by oss. Saw this first hand in
       | server software. But the analysis done and the tabulated view and
       | chart blew my mind.
       | 
       | Very well articulated.
        
       | egypturnash wrote:
       | It has been about 35 years since Illustrator was released and
       | IMHO it still does a lot of things that Inkscape can't do. "Time
       | Till High Quality Open Source Alternative" for that one is about
       | 12.7k days and counting.
       | 
       | I also don't know a single professional artist who uses Gimp
       | instead of Photoshop. Krita's gotten some traction; Wikipedia
       | says that one was founded on June 21, 2005, which is about 15y
       | after Photoshop.
        
       | 3np wrote:
       | I like to think of this as a paradigm shift from businesses
       | focusing on vertical integration where the same entity develops
       | and maintains client- and server-side software and infrastructure
       | and acts as the sole service provider, to a separation of service
       | providers and software maintainers. It's a natural consequence of
       | specialization and commoditization. We're already seeing this in
       | cloud computing and databases. Case in point from OP:
       | Dokku/Heroku. There is no reason why Dokku should have been a
       | threat to Heroku. Ideally open-source tooling should only serve
       | to strengthen someone like Heroku (whether they would have
       | continued as a PaaS or pivoted to selling their software or other
       | services around it). For a more recent example, I think the
       | window for introducing another Netlify under the same model on
       | the same scale is closing.
       | 
       | This is not bad news for business per se, it just requires a
       | different strategy. If your service is solid, you should just be
       | grateful that someone else can provide client software
       | accommodating for users needs you may be neglecting or lacking
       | the resources to accommodate. If you're a software builder it's a
       | win to have a flourishing ecosystem of service providers for
       | users to choose from, increasing the usefulness of your software
       | and widening your market through the efforts of others.
       | 
       | If you have a proprietary API (openly documented or not) time is
       | ticking.
       | 
       | Rent-seekers will struggle as their capabilities to hold
       | customers hostage weaken. Businesses focusing on providing
       | customer value (actual experienced value) should do well as long
       | as they match their niche with their strengths.
       | 
       | Look at Tailscale. I think they get this.
        
       | fallat wrote:
       | Nice to see some data 2 years later to back this up https://ecc-
       | comp.blogspot.com/2020/08/80-of-software-is-usel...
        
         | IncRnd wrote:
         | The first example in that doc is Sublime Text. "Unfortunately
         | the only thing going for Sublime was that it was first-to-
         | market with a few novel ideas, most notably multiple cursor
         | editing." That was clearly written by someone who hadn't used
         | Sublime.
         | 
         | Then Github is mentioned as making money from the data they
         | collect. You need to understand Github is Microsoft. From our
         | perspective they make money from the enterprise agreements for
         | security and code analysis they offer through Github. That is
         | what pays for people's free use.
         | 
         | Finally, the article closes with Word and Excel being useless.
         | As much as I dislike those programs, they work. None of the
         | free alternatives can share files without there eventually
         | being unfixable file format problems. When working with your
         | boss, you need to use the same program in order to share files.
         | None of the alternatives work.
        
       | zvr wrote:
       | On the first row of the table, the Open Source Alternative to
       | Unix should be BSD Unix, released in 1979.
        
       | Gigachad wrote:
       | >All software will be open source, and no one will make money
       | with software.
       | 
       | I'm really not convinced. The chart shows Photoshop having an
       | alternative in with GIMP in 1998. And 24 years later, people are
       | still paying lots of money for Photoshop. Pretty much all of
       | these examples are similar. Yes open source has replaced some
       | categories of paid software like VCS, but in a way it just opened
       | up more paid software in the form of hosts and surrounding
       | tooling like Github and paid git guis.
       | 
       | If anything I think we have moved backwards. We are no longer
       | looking at making copies of grep and dd. If you want to make an
       | actual alternative to Photoshop you'll need thousands of workers
       | spread over a lot of skill sets. You need cloud technology
       | specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D, design experts to do real
       | studies and interviews with users, etc. You need teams of people
       | working on out there new and untested ideas pushing the state of
       | the art for image editing. While the alternatives are still
       | trying to catch up to 2015 UI design patterns.
        
         | Ygg2 wrote:
         | Well on one hand OSS did make Blender which is moving towards a
         | defacto standard in game making at least.
         | 
         | Otoh nothing prohibits another OSS software appearing and
         | stealing an OSS incumbent's thunder. See Krita and Gimp.
        
           | ekianjo wrote:
           | Krita is nothing like GIMP
        
             | Ygg2 wrote:
             | To an extent, yes. But as someone who likes to draw and not
             | edit pictures, they fill a similar niche.
             | 
             | I mean I heard people use Blender as a Gimp replacement.
             | Because it can edit huge number of files in a batch.
        
               | kyriakos wrote:
               | People will use anything instead of gimp to be honest.
               | Haven't tried it in a while but everytime I did in the
               | past I can't help but question if it's developers
               | actually use their own software.
        
               | lvass wrote:
               | Not me. Whenever I try alternatives, I can't help but
               | question if people who use GIMP alternatives actually
               | tried reading the GIMP manual.
        
               | kyriakos wrote:
               | If you need the manual it most probably means the UI
               | needs improvement.
        
               | lvass wrote:
               | Only under the assumption they're designed for usage
               | without the manual. I understand most things are but they
               | definitely don't have to be. GIMP unfortunately may not
               | be particularly explicit about this but having all users
               | read the manual feels very much intended.
        
             | Aeolun wrote:
             | In a good way. I've certainly completely replaced Gimp with
             | Krita for my uses.
        
           | jwmcq wrote:
           | I think it's also worth noting that OSS did not 'make'
           | Blender initially - it was a closed-source application. It's
           | a resounding OSS success these days, but had already been
           | 'productised' before the the release of the source.
        
           | kyriakos wrote:
           | Krita is great but has a different use case than gimp.
        
           | pjmlp wrote:
           | Blender was a commercial product, whose main users kept
           | supporting after it went open source.
        
             | Ygg2 wrote:
             | And early Blender sucked ass compared to today. While it
             | starting as a commercial product might have helped at
             | start, right now it's no longer the case.
        
               | pjmlp wrote:
               | Because the commercial partners cared enough to keep
               | putting the money to further develop it.
               | 
               | Blender always had a professional userbase around it,
               | unlike the Photoshop wannabe competition.
        
         | bambax wrote:
         | > _If you want to make an actual alternative to Photoshop you
         | 'll need thousands of workers spread over a lot of skill sets.
         | You need cloud technology specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D,
         | design experts to do real studies and interviews with users,
         | etc._
         | 
         | Photopea is a feature-complete online image editor. It's widely
         | successful. It's not open source, but it's the work of just one
         | guy.
        
           | Gigachad wrote:
           | Nothing is ever feature complete, or alternatively, and image
           | editor is feature complete when it reads my mind and spits
           | out the perfect image without me doing any work. Anything
           | short of that is room for improvement. Sure, there are a lot
           | of people who don't need everything photoshop offers, but
           | there are also a lot that do so people will continue paying
           | for proprietary software for as long as that proprietary
           | software gets the closest to spitting out the right image
           | with the least effort.
        
             | bambax wrote:
             | > _Nothing is ever feature complete_
             | 
             | Of course. I meant it's suitable for many, many purposes,
             | which explains why it has millions of users.
        
         | eru wrote:
         | > If anything I think we have moved backwards. We are no longer
         | looking at making copies of grep and dd. If you want to make an
         | actual alternative to Photoshop you'll need thousands of
         | workers spread over a lot of skill sets. You need cloud
         | technology specialists, AI/ML experts, R&D, design experts to
         | do real studies and interviews with users, etc. [...]
         | 
         | I'd see that as making progress, not moving backwards!
         | 
         | It means open source has solved the 'easy' cases, and only the
         | harder ones remain.
         | 
         | (It's a bit like after humans have visited the moon,
         | complaining that going to Mars will require more effort; and
         | saying that this means we have moved backwards.)
        
           | 3np wrote:
           | 100%. That the author think it's "backwards" that they can't
           | run a sustainable business by copying what's already been
           | made but need to put in some actual work (and that building
           | profitable software inherently must involves AI/ML experts
           | and cloud specialist) speaks more about OPs bias than about
           | actual requirements. Not meaning to point fingers at them
           | specifically too much; they're most likely in a bubble where
           | these views are implicitly assumed.
           | 
           | As for the specific example of Photoshop, well, yeah.. Adobe
           | has put in at least that much work and resources behind it,
           | so what do you expect is required to get a fair fight?
           | Photoshop was an incredibly complex and refined piece of
           | software with immense work behind it before they moved to the
           | cloud. 99% you wouldn't pull that off in 2008 either. That
           | GIMP is still mostly unheard of outside of enthusiast circles
           | and never posed any threat to Adobe shows that it takes way
           | more than a handful of skilled devs.
           | 
           | > Copies of grep
           | 
           | https://github.com/BurntSushi/ripgrep started in 2016 and
           | went stable in 2019. It's not being sold as a SaaS
           | subscription because why would it?
           | 
           | I often hear complaints about entitled users but I get some
           | "entitled tech founder" vibes here, as if not being able to
           | sustain on rent-seeking behavior is a defect.
        
             | 3np wrote:
             | Looks like I conflated two different perspectives above. Oh
             | well. Take it for what it is.
        
         | mattkrause wrote:
         | As a counter-example, the Affinity family of Photo, Designer,
         | and Publisher seem to be doing pretty well as a partial
         | _commercial_ replacement for Abobe CC. I don 't know how many
         | Serif employs, but I'd be surprised if it were thousands. It's
         | true that Affinity does a lot less, especially preproduction
         | stuff, but a lot of "light" Adobe users seem happy with it.
         | 
         | As for grep, there are plenty of newer attempts, like ripgrep,
         | ack, and ag, too.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | imgabe wrote:
         | The actual alternative to Photoshop for most people who just
         | need to do simple edits ends up being photopea or another web
         | app (there's at least one other popular one I forget the name
         | of). Most people don't have the patience to install GIMP and
         | figure out the interface.
        
           | bredren wrote:
           | Yes, the photoshop web clone photopea is remarkably good for
           | quick and dirty.
           | 
           | It has all the old hot keys and export (download in a format)
           | is fast.
           | 
           | I would not consider gimp over that site at this point. But
           | maybe if the site started restrictions or forcing payments I
           | would.
           | 
           | More likely an os web app alternative would take the lead.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | Presence of an alternative [?] the alternative replacing the
         | incumbent.
         | 
         | Linux has not completely replaced Windows or macOS, it even has
         | not replaced FreeBSD. But having it as an alternative, even
         | back in 1990s when it was not yet mature, was very important.
         | 
         | Firefox has not replaced MSIE or Chrome, but its presence is
         | very, very important for the entire Web, to my mind.
        
         | ethbr0 wrote:
         | There's a reliable test for predicting the success of failure
         | of open source software: "Does it directly interact with
         | users?"
         | 
         | If the answer is yes, OSS has mostly been an alternative option
         | but not the first choice. (With all due respect and deference
         | to the work put in by OSS GUI teams!)
         | 
         | If the answer is no, and especially if it's a shared need but
         | not the primary product (e.g. kernel, web server, intermediate
         | processing step), then OSS has taken over the world.
        
           | tuatoru wrote:
           | Not totally, not till Oracle has been tipped into the dustbin
           | of history. (Come the day!)
           | 
           | I think Cisco still uses proprietary software too.
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | Fair! Although I've never worked with a shop that was not-
             | Oracle and migrating to Oracle. Sadly, there's the long
             | tail of places with existing, business critical Oracle use.
        
               | pjmlp wrote:
               | Anyone that wants top tier RDMS, it nice graphical
               | debuggers for stored procedures, integration of Java and
               | .NET into the database, distributed transactions, raw
               | file system accesses, web services on the DB layer, among
               | several other features, besides Oracle, there is only MS
               | SQL Server and the RDMS owned by IBM like DB 2 and
               | Informix.
               | 
               | MySQL and Postgres are kind of nice, but not really the
               | same league at tooling level.
        
               | bruce511 wrote:
               | This is completely in line with the premise above.
               | 
               | If the database is primarily a data store, unseen by the
               | end user, then Postgress, Firebird etc are fine. If
               | however the database is an active part of the development
               | stack, being used by lots of "users", writing new code
               | etc, then commercial offerings with better tooling win.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | With Oracle's strong ties with government structures, it's
             | unlikely that it will be gone in the next 30 years.
             | 
             | I'd say that the cutting point is when no _new_ project
             | considers Oracle as a viable tool. This time has largely
             | come already.
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | Yes. Open source software people very rarely do good
           | graphical user interfaces. Unclear why this is so. But it is.
        
             | medoc wrote:
             | For making a good GUI, the tech guys need to be ordered
             | around by non-tech guys who think like, or talk to, regular
             | users and know what is needed. Tech guys don't like this,
             | so someone needs to pay for their suffering.
        
             | einpoklum wrote:
             | You have clearly not see the user interface of most (as
             | opposed to the most popular) pieces of closed-source
             | software.
        
               | noirbot wrote:
               | That's not really a rebuttal though. 90% of all UX can be
               | bad, but it's still notable if 99% of OSS UX is bad.
               | 
               | Actually needing to sell your product eventually/get
               | people to use it seems to be a fairly necessary part of
               | ending up with a good UX.
        
             | 082349872349872 wrote:
             | I suspect Dijkstra made the relevant distinction in a
             | different context: the open source process is geared to
             | providing correct software, not pleasant software.
             | 
             | > _The pleasantness problem deals with the question how
             | satisfactory a system meeting a given functional
             | specification would be; the correctness problem deals with
             | the question whether a given system meets that functional
             | specification. The correctness problem being an entirely
             | technical one, the functional specification can provide
             | strong heuristic guidance for the system designer._
        
           | EGreg wrote:
           | Yes you're right. But OSS opens up a free market of vendors.
           | Consider how Wordpress powers 40% of all websites in the
           | world. The website owners pay hosts etc. to have full control
           | and they arent locked into a monopoly vendor, but end users
           | just use the stuff.
        
           | onionisafruit wrote:
           | I never considered this differentiator before, but it makes
           | sense.
        
         | TAForObvReasons wrote:
         | This is very simple to understand: in the long run, price tends
         | to marginal cost of production. Open source represents the
         | logical endpoint: since marginal cost of software is ~0, the
         | endpoint is something with price ~0. SaaS is a response, but
         | open source is already chipping away at the low end.
         | 
         | As for the general thought about experts, consider web
         | browsers. Advancing the state of the art is extremely
         | expensive, yet the browser vendors are more or less forced to
         | give it away for free. The browsers that either charged money
         | or weren't open source ... for the most part died out.
        
           | jahewson wrote:
           | > in the long run, price tends to marginal cost of production
           | 
           | Ah but this principle applies to commodity markets, where
           | prices rising above the marginal level would prompt an
           | increase in production from competitors or new entrants to
           | the market.
           | 
           | Software is not a commodity though, nobody other than Adobe
           | makes Photoshop, we can't increase production of Photoshop.
           | People can create competing products, of course, but that's
           | just a regular competitive market. This is also why movies
           | and ebooks don't cost $0.
           | 
           | > browser vendors are more or less forced to give it away for
           | free
           | 
           | Yes but that's not because of the market, the idea of giving
           | it away free was to distort the market. It was done to crush
           | Netscape and it worked. Now it's done to grab as many
           | eyeballs as possible and keep competitors off your turf. I
           | think it's possible that we'll return to paid web browsers
           | when the interests of the vendors and the users are more
           | closely aligned - in a sense Safari and Edge are already
           | there, as they're both priced-in to their respective OS's.
        
             | musicale wrote:
             | > It was done to crush Netscape and it worked
             | 
             | It would have been interesting to see how things would have
             | turned out had Microsoft been able to continue integrating
             | the OS and web browser.
             | 
             | At this point I expect most users expect the OS to include
             | a web browser and would consider it deficient otherwise.
             | I'm not sure if it's even possible to replace Chrome with
             | Firefox on ChromeOS.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | You can install Firefox on ChromeOS. (At least I've done
               | it on ChromeOS Flex.) However, just like Windows 98 used
               | Internet Explorer for some of its internals (eg the
               | 'live' Desktop), so does ChromeOS use Chrome for eg
               | tweaking the settings.
        
             | musicale wrote:
             | > the idea of giving it away free was to distort the
             | market. It was done to crush Netscape
             | 
             | Oh this is interesting:
             | 
             | > [Netscape Navigator] Version 3.0 was also available in a
             | "Gold" version which featured a WYSIWYG HTML editor (later
             | added to Netscape Communicator as a standard feature), and
             | was sold as retail software for profit.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape_(web_browser)
        
         | cowtools wrote:
         | You only have to build the alternative once. Yes, there have
         | been some areas where proprietary software has held its ground,
         | but has done just that- it has not replaced free software in
         | the areas that it has control over.
         | 
         | The takeover of free software may be slow, but it is one-
         | directional.
        
           | glasshug wrote:
           | I wish this were true! But keeping your software current in
           | 2022 is an continuous project. UIs improve, platforms shift,
           | features expand, vulns appear, needs change, server bills
           | need to be paid.
        
             | cowtools wrote:
             | I think this is a self-aggrandizing myth that is common in
             | forums like HN with lots of programmers and designers:
             | 
             | - UI's usually do not improve. They "improve" by making
             | subjective changes for the benefit of the maker (often at
             | the cost of the user).
             | 
             | - Platforms are constantly shifting when they are owned by
             | corporations. At first, businesses will penetrate the
             | market by creating a competitive platform. Once their
             | platform has reached critical market share, they will
             | switch to milking their users who are now trapped due to
             | vendor lock-in. This forces users of proprietary software
             | to constantly jump ship in order to get a good deal.
             | 
             | - Features sometimes expand, but most apps will reach a
             | point where it no longer makes sense to add additional
             | features. In the free-software world, we generally try to
             | make an ecosystem of programs that work together: if a
             | single program is too complex, its features may be divided
             | into several smaller programs. In the corporate world, a
             | single program may be bloated and expanded long past the
             | point at which additional complexity will serve the user-
             | so long as developers can continue to invent new ways to
             | extract money, data, etc from their users.
             | 
             | - New vulnerabilities may be uncovered, but generally
             | vulnerabilities are only added when the complexity of
             | program increases. Vulnerabilities don't just appear out of
             | nowhere. If you write a program, it doesn't just become
             | more vulnerable over time just by merit of being old.
             | 
             | - Server bills usually need to be paid because people have
             | inserted themselves as middlemen. If the internet was
             | designed in a way that did not require paying a
             | racketeering fee for DNS, PKI, etc. then we would see a lot
             | of decentralized alternatives to "essential" services.
             | 
             | It's hard for me to entirely put into words how flawed your
             | statement is. If you have time, you may want to check out a
             | book called "Bullshit Jobs: A Theory" by David Graeber
             | (https://libgen.gs/edition.php?id=5852679). It might give
             | you a new perspective on the software industry.
        
               | 3np wrote:
               | I recently spent some time on reviving an old (FLOSS, all
               | server-side, the only UI being CLI and an HTTP API)
               | nodejs 8 software built mostly according to what was
               | considered best practice at the time. I can confidently
               | say you're missing important nuance here.
               | 
               | A counter-argument to this could be "most people were
               | doing it wrong at the time and those best-practices
               | proved to be not very sustainable so your old software
               | was probably garbage already" but at that point we're
               | entering the realm of dismissing reality.
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | Man, I couldn't disagree more strongly! Programming is
               | like building a house on shifting sand. How many projects
               | that you haven't touched in the last 5 years still run?
               | If you're anything like me, the percentage is vanishingly
               | small - and my old projects aren't even that complicated.
               | If you find that this is a belief "common in forums like
               | HN with lots of programmers", I suspect that's because
               | engineers are the most likely to have the hard-earned
               | experience!
               | 
               | I mean, just look at HN for examples. Quite literally
               | yesterday it happened again: Heroku decided to turn off
               | all old free apps. That's a whole bunch of my old apps
               | that are about to deprecate and break unless I do some
               | work on them.
               | 
               | > Features sometimes expand, but most apps will reach a
               | point where it no longer makes sense to add additional
               | features.
               | 
               | I think this is overly idealistic, or perhaps limited to
               | too small of a problem space. If your software stops
               | adding features, it will quickly be out-competed by
               | software which does have new features that improve
               | productivity. I suppose you could argue that some apps
               | are "finished", but I tend to see those as a rather small
               | subset of all apps - things like single-use command-line
               | utilities, say, like grep and awk. It's hard for me to
               | fathom Photoshop ever being finished - until you're
               | beaming ideas directly from brain to canvas, there's
               | always the possibility that new features can save more
               | time[1].
               | 
               | > Vulnerabilities don't just appear out of nowhere
               | 
               | But this is exactly what vulnerabilities do. One day,
               | there isn't Heartbleed. The next day there is. One day,
               | your Java dependencies are fine. The next day, log4j is
               | broken for everyone on the internet. If you're not on
               | call to solve problems like these, no one is going to use
               | your app.
               | 
               | I don't really understand how you can say "[a program]
               | doesn't just become more vulnerable over time just by
               | merit of being old". This is exactly what happens to any
               | program with dependencies.
               | 
               | > Server bills usually need to be paid because people
               | have inserted themselves as middlemen
               | 
               | People have inserted themselves as middlemen because
               | servers require upkeep, and upkeeping a server takes the
               | time of an experienced professional. They need to be
               | patched for vulns (again), maybe you need to swap out
               | your SSD because it finally ran out of writes, or any in
               | a litany of other problems.
               | 
               | [1]: Then again, with DALL-E, maybe this is happening
               | sooner than we think - but that's beside the point.
        
               | archagon wrote:
               | I question the utility of most features Adobe adds to PS
               | these days; but in any case, the problem is easily solved
               | by building a robust plugin system and distributing the
               | work.
        
               | melagonster wrote:
               | I had found some good new features in Microsoft office
               | 365, I guess the sapce between now and finishing still
               | big.
        
               | supportlocal4h wrote:
               | Ah, shucks. Let's not argue. You're both right. Can we
               | embrace great points on both sides without strong
               | diageement?
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | Haha, you know what, that's pretty fair.
        
               | cowtools wrote:
               | >I mean, just look at HN for examples. Quite literally
               | yesterday it happened again: Heroku decided to turn off
               | all old free apps. That's a whole bunch of my old apps
               | that are about to deprecate and break unless I do some
               | work on them.
               | 
               | Yeah, pretty short-sighted of you to go out of your way
               | to design those systems in a way that is dependent on a
               | single company hosting it.
               | 
               | >I suppose you could argue that some apps are "finished",
               | but I tend to see those as a rather small subset of all
               | apps - things like single-use command-line utilities,
               | say, like grep and awk. It's hard for me to fathom
               | Photoshop ever being finished
               | 
               | In an ideal computing environment, the functionalities of
               | a single bloated program like adobe photoshop are
               | completely encompassed by an environment of general-
               | purpose utilities in a way that is analogous to unix
               | shell programs that can interact to perform a variety of
               | tasks.
               | 
               | Modern operating systems are intentionally designed in a
               | way that promotes the commercialization of software. For
               | example, why is it that all third-party software on iOS
               | or android is packaged into distinct, sandboxed "apps"
               | each with their own accompanying icons and whatnot? It's
               | clear that the ability for these "apps" to perform any
               | real inter-process communication is hampered, because the
               | boundaries of the apps represent the boundaries of
               | different competing commercial entities. It is sort of
               | like conway's law, but in reverse: by enforcing a certain
               | structure on software that is distributed, you are
               | selecting for a particular corporate development
               | structure. This analogy goes much deeper than what I can
               | current find the words for. The whole system is quite
               | insidiously woven together.
               | 
               | It is impossible to run any sort of background process
               | (for example, a daemon) in a way that is transparent to
               | other running processes, but it does allow apps to make
               | outgoing connections. This makes the user dependent on an
               | intermediate to provide inter-app communication as a sort
               | of internet-based service.
               | 
               | So I hear you say that software has to compete with the
               | endless "upgrades" of its competitors. I think we have
               | almost never seen a market in which free software based
               | on the unix philosophy has actually competed on its own
               | terms. What we've seen is a market where free software
               | competes on a commercial basis- in producing a distinct,
               | marketable product (as opposed to an environment of
               | inter-working tools) that is comparable to an existing
               | product such that consumers are familiar with it. The
               | unix shell environment is a rare example of an actually
               | good idea coming out of the commercial software, and it's
               | a major foothold for free software that has continued
               | that legacy.
               | 
               | >But this is exactly what vulnerabilities do. One day,
               | there isn't Heartbleed. The next day there is.
               | 
               | If a tree falls in the middle of a forest and no one
               | hears it, does it make a sound? If there's a bug in
               | software but no one uncovers it, is it a vulnerability?
               | Apparently not according to you.
               | 
               | There would be no heartbleed if there was no
               | implementation of the mostly-useless heartbeat faculty.
               | There would be no log4jshell if there was no
               | implementation of the bloated JNDI crap. You are correct,
               | this is exactly what happens when programmers include
               | many useless, bloated, and unvetted dependencies in their
               | project.
               | 
               | Here is the way I see it: At some point you will reach a
               | point in your work where the utility-to-complexity
               | tradeoff will taper off. There is an ideal version of
               | every program that is bug-free and at the plateu of this
               | utility-to-complexity curve. The purpose of all
               | programming is to get close enough to the ideal system
               | and finish- to make something that works well reliably.
               | 
               | Saying that one must continuously revise a program
               | forever to account for new features or vulnerabilities or
               | service providers is like saying that you should
               | continuously revise a book forever because you need to
               | add another chapter or fix another typo or move to
               | another publisher because Heroku stopped printing your
               | book. The goal of writing is to produce a useful-enough
               | book built on sound knowledge, if you are producing
               | something that you think constantly deserves to be
               | revised then you are incompetent- either because you
               | cannot recognize a finished product or because you cannot
               | produce one.
               | 
               | The reason why commercial software is often updated with
               | useless and inane features (much like a college
               | textbook!) obviously serves a much more sinister motive
               | than what you've described here.
               | 
               | >People have inserted themselves as middlemen because
               | servers require upkeep, and up-keeping a server takes the
               | time of an experienced professional. They need to be
               | patched for vulns (again), maybe you need to swap out
               | your SSD because it finally ran out of writes, or any in
               | a litany of other problems.
               | 
               | I see the fact that a service is critically dependent on
               | a single server or maintainer as a design failure.
               | Software should allow users to be more self-sufficient,
               | not less. These centralized systems make you reliant on
               | some sysadmin or someone who essentially performs a
               | "useless job". Check out that book I linked earlier. It's
               | an interesting read.
               | 
               | "It is difficult to get a man to understand something,
               | when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
        
               | bruce511 wrote:
               | >> the fact that a service is critically dependent on a
               | single server or maintainer as a design failure. Software
               | should allow users to be more self-sufficient, not less.
               | 
               | Software allows users to be as self-sufficient or not,
               | depending on their skills and resources. There is room
               | for a whole spectrum of users, and obviously as
               | developers we fall on that spectrum as well.
               | 
               | Self suffiency, in any area, is expensive in time, and
               | money. I can grow my own food by buying the land and
               | devoting all day to farming. I'm self sufficient, but I
               | don't have time for anything else.
               | 
               | Equally I can choose to spend time running my own
               | servers. I can buy hardware, learn many things, make
               | mistakes, but be self sufficient.
               | 
               | However all that time spent is time I'm not focusing on
               | my business. If my cousin runs a school, they want a
               | "system that just works". They aren't interested in being
               | self-sufficient. They don't have the time, or money, to
               | (safely) host their own software. They are too busy
               | adding value to their business elsewhere.
               | 
               | (most) OSS to some extent solves a problem that only very
               | few people have. It caters to those who are time rich but
               | cash poor. Most people though are time poor, and can
               | easily find cash to make problems go away.
               | 
               | Adobe wins over Gimp because it does more, faster, thus
               | saving the user time. Its a lot easier to find money than
               | time, so paying the subscription is trivial. If it saves
               | an hour a month, you're ahead even at minimum wage
               | levels.
               | 
               | Of course there are those who value self-sufficiency, who
               | seek out solutions that reduce, or remove, the supply
               | chain. These folk exist in every part of society, and it
               | is a perfectly good approach.
               | 
               | But it is worth understanding that this is a tiny subset
               | of people. Most buy their food in a shop. Most are just
               | using their computer to perform tasks. They have no more
               | desire to write their own code, or host their own server,
               | than they do to grow their own food.
        
               | johnfn wrote:
               | > Yeah, pretty short-sighted of you to go out of your way
               | to design those systems in a way that is dependent on a
               | single company hosting it.
               | 
               | I don't think we can have a productive conversation if
               | you make statements like these.
        
               | einpoklum wrote:
               | > How many projects that you haven't touched in the last
               | 5 years still run?
               | 
               | The ones which were built like a tank in terms of
               | adherence to standards, minimization of dependencies and
               | of assumptions regarding the platform, non-flakey build
               | system etc.
               | 
               | > If your software stops adding features, it will quickly
               | be out-competed by software which does have new features
               | 
               | Not usually. You're probably thinking of things like web
               | browsers.
               | 
               | > because servers require upkeep
               | 
               | If your software does not require continuously running
               | global server(s) then that is not an issue.
               | 
               | Otherwise I mostly agree.
        
             | whateveracct wrote:
             | People still use programs like grafx2 and klystrack. They
             | don't need big updates - they are what they are and do what
             | they do nicely.
        
         | sverhagen wrote:
         | GIMP is a good alternative to Photoshop for someone like me,
         | who is not a professional designer, just someone who needs to
         | touch up an occasional picture. So what GIMP has done is
         | removing my "need" to run an illegal copy of Photoshop (a
         | practice I really hated and stopped with a long time ago). If
         | I'm a professional user of anything, I should be ready to pay
         | for it. Else hard to claim I'm a professional.
         | 
         | What the article should acknowledge is the difference between
         | an alternative and the shift of which tool is... the gold
         | standard.
        
       | dane-pgp wrote:
       | > all software will be open source, and no one will make money
       | with software.
       | 
       | The first half of that statement doesn't imply the second half at
       | all.
       | 
       | Perhaps, in the future, companies will see the writing on the
       | wall and plan on re-licensing their software under an open
       | licence once they have made a profit from their initial
       | investment (and built a community to maintain the code base going
       | forwards).
       | 
       | Taking that idea to an extreme, companies could use a crowd-
       | funding campaign to provide the initial capital, and make the
       | code available under an open licence even while it is still being
       | written.
       | 
       | The only hurdle to implementing that model is finding a community
       | of people who would value some piece of software that doesn't
       | exist yet, and who don't mind waiting for it to be created,
       | although the crowd-funding could be done on a per-feature basis.
        
         | jacooper wrote:
         | It doesn't even have to be that. Nextcloud is fully libre, yet
         | its a company with income and profit.
        
           | cyborgx7 wrote:
           | Yes, but not from selling the software. Nextcloud makes money
           | from hosting and support, exactly as the article lines out.
        
         | mananaysiempre wrote:
         | Unglue[1] tried to do (roughly) this for books, but seems to
         | have stagnated in the recent years, unfortunately.
         | 
         | [1] https://unglue.it/
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | > All software will be open source, and no one will make money
       | with software.
       | 
       | This is simply a very utopian claim and just isn't going to
       | happen. One example is Microsoft Office which has been replaced
       | by Google Docs / Office Online, etc and little to no-one installs
       | LibreOffice directly.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, closed-source software is here to stay and the
       | only absolute here is: There isn't any.
        
         | magpi3 wrote:
         | > This is simply a very utopian claim and just isn't going to
         | happen. One example is Microsoft Office which has been replaced
         | by Google Docs / Office Online, etc and little to no-one
         | installs LibreOffice directly.
         | 
         | Well the world changed under LibreOffice's feet when the
         | browser became a strong enough platform for office products.
         | There is a lesson here: open source is slow, so don't just
         | chase the present because it will become the past by the time
         | you are viable. I can remember when some of the FSF's highest
         | priorities were developing free software versions of RealPlayer
         | and Flash.
         | 
         | Someone else on this thread already mentioned that what open
         | source software does best is infrastructure, and I would add
         | libraries to that. It definitely moves too slowly for cutting
         | edge, modern application development unless a corporation is
         | backing it.
        
         | r_hoods_ghost wrote:
         | This is only a utopian claim if you are a software developer
         | who does not need to make money to live. Otherwise it's utterly
         | dystopian and essentially reduces the developer to a provider
         | of free labour. I sometimes think that open source is the
         | greatest trick that late stage capitalism ever pulled.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | > I sometimes think that open source is the greatest trick
           | that late stage capitalism ever pulled.
           | 
           | Don't let Stallman hear that.
        
       | npteljes wrote:
       | >Open source is coming for your business. It is just a matter of
       | time before there exists a compelling open source alternative to
       | your software.
       | 
       | Are we really taking this seriously in the booming world of
       | proprietary software / SAAS culture? Come on.
       | 
       | "All software will be open source, and no one will make money
       | with software."
       | 
       | What a load of bullshit. First of all, humanity would be nicely
       | off to have a set of open source resources that are at least
       | usable to participate in society. And we've not reached this
       | point, yet.
       | 
       | Second, what about OTHER proprietary alternatives? It's not like
       | closed source is a fun club where they all respect each other's
       | hard work and only original ideas boom. Somehow after the success
       | of Dropbox, Google Drive, Microsoft OneDrive and others become
       | very popular. And no matter how many Syncthings and
       | Open/Nextclouds there are, they still make a good amount of money
       | - even Dropbox still exists.
       | 
       | This article is just a hit piece against FOSS.
        
       | hintymad wrote:
       | There could be an open source alternative to our software, yet it
       | will be much harder to have an _economically competitive_ open
       | source alternative to systems or workflows. Amazon 's Open Search
       | Service, for instance, is just a control plane on top of Open
       | Search (and Elasticsearch some time ago), yet so many companies
       | flock to the service because they simply do not want to be
       | bothered with manning a search service.
        
       | JodieBenitez wrote:
       | > In the future - and maybe it'll take a couple more decades -
       | all software will be open source, and no one will make money with
       | software. And I think that's a good thing.
       | 
       | Ignoring open source "alternatives" with UX so poor I'm still
       | glad to pay for the proprietary thing. Ignoring all the web-based
       | stuff for which a large part of the code is behind a closed
       | source API.
        
       | einpoklum wrote:
       | > It is just a matter of time before there exists a compelling
       | open source alternative to your software
       | 
       | The word "just" doesn't fit that sentence. Most commercial
       | companies offer products and services for which it's "just" a
       | matter of time before they become obsolete, irrelevant or
       | unavailable. This may be due to technological reasons (propeller
       | passenger aircraft which gave way to jets, sailing ships which
       | gave way to steamers etc.) or social reasons (e.g. rigid-
       | structured wide dresses - or for that matter, last year's fashion
       | lines).
       | 
       | I believe in Open-Source - and Libre-licensed - software. But
       | that argument is rather weak.
       | 
       | Also - it seems to me like most software which runs "closed-
       | source" hardware - be it cars, household electric appliances,
       | etc. is likely to stay closed, since such hardware is developed
       | and released routinely so there is always a reverse-engineering
       | challenge before that can be opened up. And usually, there are
       | not enough people with enough interest to reverse-engineer "all
       | the things".
        
       | AdamH12113 wrote:
       | Having heard this kind of argument since the late 90s, I'm amused
       | that it's three HN links up from GIMP finally getting some CMYK
       | support after ~25 years.
        
       | ouid wrote:
       | The trend is downward because of how a proprietary technology
       | released 3 years ago cannot have had its time to open source be 5
       | years.
        
         | JoshMcguigan wrote:
         | I agree with you, but the article does address this point.
        
           | lern_too_spel wrote:
           | Incorrectly.
        
       | nothrowaways wrote:
       | Matlab OSS equivalent is octave
        
       | jongjong wrote:
       | It's an interesting article but I'm not sure that the conclusion
       | is correct. The existence of a similar or superior open source
       | solution does not guarantee that a proprietary solution will lose
       | most of its users to that open source alternative; especially if
       | there are network effects at play.
       | 
       | Also, when it comes to B2B solutions, network effects have a
       | massive effect on the procurement process. The people who decide
       | what software a large company should buy/use are more likely to
       | buy from their friends' companies (or they might get some kind of
       | kickback payment or job offer down the line)... So there is no
       | incentive for insiders to use the free solution no matter how
       | good it is.
        
       | Silverback_VII wrote:
       | Until Women will get wet when they hear that you are an open
       | source developer this will never be the case.
       | 
       | You are better off hitting the gym instead of developing software
       | for free.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | I suppose most FOSS developers have passed that level of
         | Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
        
       | woevdbz wrote:
       | Bad metric, bad methodology, survivor bias... I'm still expecting
       | a kick-ass open source video editor or digital audio workstation
       | any day now...
        
       | Ygg2 wrote:
       | When is there going to be OSS alternative to Windows? No, Linux
       | doesn't count. It's good for servers but terrible desktop
       | experience.
        
         | glasshug wrote:
         | Funnily enough, Linux may be one of the few projects in the
         | "alternatives" column that _is_ viable :)
        
           | Ygg2 wrote:
           | Yeah. I've been hearing about Linux Desktop for the last 20
           | years. It's 31 year old.
           | 
           | I think either desktops will disappear (replaced by
           | commodified computers like Androids/Chromebooks); Or a large
           | company will set some kind of standard what Linux OS is; Or
           | some other OSS OS will not make same mistakes Linux did and
           | guarantee a saner target for app development than current
           | Linux.
           | 
           | I want (3) to happen (e.g. Serenity OS blows up and just
           | devours Linux marketshare). I suspect (1) will happen -
           | Microsoft/Google/Apple just make their locked down garden and
           | Desktop computers go the way of the Dodo.
        
           | Tijdreiziger wrote:
           | Well, until you want to run Photoshop or Ableton.
        
         | chungy wrote:
         | ReactOS, and approximately in 1998.
        
         | rvz wrote:
         | Very good question. The answer doesn't exist today, unless
         | somehow billions of dollars pours into ReactOS for it to be
         | compatible with Windows 11, but another utopian and unrealistic
         | chance of that happening.
         | 
         | We are looking for a full desktop open source to Windows so
         | GNU/Linux doesn't count as an alternative, and neither does
         | Wine. But the closest to answering that is ReactOS despite it
         | not being a realistic alternative for the end user today.
        
           | Ygg2 wrote:
           | I meant a modern GUI oriented OS that's stable (see glibc
           | 2.36 breaking EAC and other apps*) and nice to develop for.
           | 
           | Compatibility with Windows or POSIX would be amazing but not
           | required.
           | 
           | * Yeah, I get it. Changing from `DT_HASH` to `DT_GNU_HASH`
           | had to happen at some point. Backwards compatibility is a
           | real chore, and not what glibc maintainers bound themselves
           | to.
        
             | shakna wrote:
             | Whilst it's not particular nice to develop for, Android
             | sits on the Linux kernel. I haven't heard any convincing
             | argument not to consider Android a "Linux for the desktop",
             | in the sense of mass adoption and people using it as their
             | everyday device.
        
         | wilg wrote:
         | It's the year of the Linux desktop!
        
       | sidlls wrote:
       | Only a scant handful of the open source alternatives in that
       | table (Linux, git, gitlab, audacity, vlc media player) are
       | compelling, if we use some measure of adoption as compelling.
       | Most of the rest are all but unknown or so sparsely used as to be
       | negligible compared to the software they supposedly displaced or
       | will displace.
       | 
       | My (probably controversial) opinion is that this is because many
       | (most) of these alternatives are developed by people with an
       | _ideology_ as their agenda rather than to meet market demands.
       | The OSS alternatives in almost every case are inferior in terms
       | of features and usability as a result of this.
        
         | butterNaN wrote:
         | It is impossible to be without ideology. Even if you think
         | you're free from it, you just subscribe to the 'default'
         | ideology of your environments.
         | 
         | Meeting market demands _is_ an ideology.
        
           | sidlls wrote:
           | That's a fair point: but it doesn't change the underlying
           | narrative. The ideology motivating development of (F)OSS
           | alternatives frequently produces software that is not as good
           | as that produced by a market-demand ideology.
        
             | butterNaN wrote:
             | I would agree on that.
             | 
             | My initial diagnosis is that it's because of limited/nil
             | feedback. Market driven projects at least have _some_ sort
             | of user feedback (e.g. early market research) that drives
             | the development. It is often flawed but it 's better than
             | just a bunch of engineers assuming stuff.
        
         | pjmlp wrote:
         | Yes, it is the hippie culture of the 70's community gardens and
         | such applied to software, eventually everyone went to Wall
         | Street and similar places during the 80's.
         | 
         | Similarly, after the FOSS wave, we are now back at models
         | similar to shareware and demoware, because guess what, money is
         | important.
        
         | Gigachad wrote:
         | I don't think the problem is that the development is agenda
         | driven. It's more that the "last 10%" of work takes 99% of the
         | effort. These alternatives look very good on a checkbox list
         | but when you actually try to use them they just don't hold up
         | and the work to get them there is immense. It's why almost
         | relevant software has an army of workers behind them and more
         | than just developers.
         | 
         | A few devs on there own are never going to be able to keep up.
        
           | k__ wrote:
           | Reminds me of an app I build.
           | 
           | 4 screens for the main tasks
           | 
           | 12 screens for onboarding
        
           | sidlls wrote:
           | I think our points are aligned. The agenda driven nature of
           | the genesis of these alternatives is part of the reason few
           | developers work on them. Which, as you note, is why the "last
           | 10%" doesn't get done.
        
         | isaacremuant wrote:
         | I'd argue that LibreOffice, Inkscape, 7zip, Firefox, FileZilla,
         | OBS, bitwarden are also well known, well used and compelling.
         | 
         | Hell, OBS is arguably better than anything out there. There's
         | also Blender.
         | 
         | I think your bias is too strong. It's not so much controversial
         | as misguided. People do things to meet their own needs and pain
         | points and then products evolve. Having paid people behind
         | products would make you think a product will be better but it's
         | not necessarily the case. Also, different products might be
         | better at different things (Firefox, despite some backsteps, is
         | still more customizable than the closed source alternatives).
        
       | kuon wrote:
       | While I am a big proponent of open source, a few are not good
       | enough yet. The most important one being CAD. No CAD is good
       | enough for serious mechanical engineering except commercial ones.
       | The creative software (GIMP, inkscape) can replace Adobe but they
       | are much harder yo use with worse integration between them. In
       | the other direction, some OSS software are just way better than
       | the commercial solution (I'd put OBS in those).
        
         | jacooper wrote:
         | Its seems in general anything Creative, FOSS struggles at.
        
         | wizzledonker wrote:
         | My recent experience with OpenCASCADE is that since the new
         | FUSE algorithm was introduced for Boolean operations with fuzzy
         | values [0] the library itself is definitely up to par for
         | professional use. (Although it's unfortunate that many API
         | entry points do not advertise their newer versions, and many
         | developers end up using slower, legacy algorithms). Recent
         | development trajectory on OpenCASCADE has been quite
         | impressive.
         | 
         | What's missing is a compelling user application now, and this
         | is tarnished by the kernels existing reputation. Case in point,
         | shapr (an iOS CAD modelling app) switched away from OpenCASCADE
         | in 2017, before development trajectory really took off [1]
         | 
         | Also, when searching OpenCASCADE in Google, you get hacker news
         | comments like this [2]
         | 
         | [0]https://dev.opencascade.org/content/fuzzy-boolean-operations
         | [1] https://discourse.shapr3d.com/t/shapr3d-3-0-is-here-and-
         | it-s... [2]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11536518
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | owly wrote:
         | Good examples. OBS is definitely superior. As much as I would
         | like open source creative software, I recommend the closed
         | source Affinity Photo and Designer as Adobe alternatives. Very
         | inexpensive and extremely simple to use.
        
       | alkonaut wrote:
       | How much market share did these alternatives take?
       | 
       | With few exceptions the Desktop OSS apps are simply inferior to
       | commercial options because UX requires consistency requires both
       | an organization that is hard to form in OSS, and it requires
       | extreme amounts of dull repetitive work of specific roles
       | (graphic/interaction designers) that are still rare in OSS.
       | 
       | Few of the larger applications in the commercial column will be
       | significantly replaced by the ones in the OSS column _or_ a
       | future OSS alternative.
       | 
       | > All software will be open source, and no one will make money
       | with software.
       | 
       | Most software is boring niche business software. Most developers
       | work on software that most people will never hear about. And no
       | one would ever create it unless it is to pay their bills.
        
         | tluyben2 wrote:
         | > Most software is boring niche business software.
         | 
         | That would be enough to call the conclusion bogus; there are
         | millions of software packages that are written in specific
         | niches which would bore anyone to death. They are also often
         | written over years or even decades with input from 10 to 1000s
         | of employees of a company. There is always money in that for
         | software. And you can say; ok, so let's skip internal software;
         | a lot of software starts as internal and becomes a packaged or
         | saas product after. I know many companies who wrote very niche
         | internal software over the years and then decided to start
         | selling it to competitors.
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | I can't help feeling like we engineers are shooting ourselves in
       | the foot with the open source culture: Most challenging and
       | interesting work is turning into unpaid (open source) hobby
       | projects. Professional software engineering is more and more
       | about cobbling together various open source software, fiddling
       | with configuration files and other menial tasks. Also, where is
       | my "open source lawyer" or "open source doctor" whose work I can
       | download from GitHub for free and file my issues / complaints
       | with there?
       | 
       | I guess this benefits the mediocre software engineer (who can now
       | accomplish things by cobbling together open source that they
       | would never be able to accomplish from scratch), and perhaps it's
       | also a plus for the top 0.001% who are good hustlers too and can
       | make a career out of touring around conferences as some kind of
       | nerd celebrities. But for the skilled and professional engineer
       | (say top 5-25%) I'm starting to feel it's a trap.
       | 
       | (Open source is great for basic infrastructure though, like
       | operating systems, compilers, interpreters, frameworks like
       | TensorFlow or PyTorch, etc. I'm definitely not against it in
       | general.)
        
       | keepquestioning wrote:
       | Waiting for an open source GPU
        
       | 00s_enthusiast wrote:
       | The trend towards the open source replacement appearing faster
       | and faster is intriguing.
       | 
       | Yet, the fundamental reason for software simping still applies:
       | 
       | Herd people don't go with what's free, they go with what's
       | popular.
        
       | i_am_proteus wrote:
       | >Sublime... Atom
       | 
       | https://github.blog/2022-06-08-sunsetting-atom/
       | 
       | What's the "Time Til Open Source Alternative Abandoned?"
        
       | needle0 wrote:
       | What exactly is "software" though? Is it just the code, or does
       | it include the whole tech infrastructure that runs it, or even
       | all the business agreements that makes the service possible and
       | makes it all available to the end user? For the average user, the
       | perception of software is increasingly shifting towards the third
       | definition.
       | 
       | I agree the first definition can be cloned fairly quickly, but
       | the second is tougher, and the third requires cloning of
       | practically the entire company operations. Imagine how hard it
       | would be to, say, make an open source clone of something like
       | Netflix, INCLUDING the vast majority of the video content
       | provided -- all legally, of course!
        
       | legulere wrote:
       | If you look at the list something becomes obvious: it's mostly
       | software used by other programmers. If the software isn't
       | directly targeted at software developers like gimp is, there will
       | be less success.
       | 
       | If you look a B2B Software software developers never will use,
       | often there exist no open source solutions.
        
       | cratermoon wrote:
       | Interestingly, this list mostly covers desktop applications and
       | social media. There's a couple of outliers, like Linux, the Siri
       | and Google translate alternatives, but I noticed many missing
       | categories. Relational databases, accounting & tax preparation,
       | CRM, document management, and so on.
        
       | vikramkr wrote:
       | It is unsurprising to me that any software that was launched
       | within the last couple years that also has an open source
       | alternative would have had that open source alternative developed
       | in less than a couple years time...
       | 
       | (I know the article mentions thr "blind spot" in the chart
       | further down, but that's such a glaringly obvious issue that just
       | acknowledging it as an issue doesn't make the conclusion any less
       | absurd)
        
       | benreesman wrote:
       | I think this hinges a great deal on how strict the definition of
       | OSS is.
       | 
       | There's a (generally positive IMHO) trend towards more SOTA stuff
       | being _source available_ over time, but if it's part of your
       | business you're paying someone to maintain and support it (even
       | if it's yourself). And a vibrant range of options from elite
       | proprietary niche stuff to radically-licensed free software is a
       | great thing!
       | 
       | Compilers are a great case-in-point: for ages 'GCC' was knocking
       | the stuffing out of much/most commercial stuff, at the moment the
       | pendulum has swung almost completely over to LLVM which is like,
       | way more tied into industry, and maybe it swings back at some
       | point.
        
       | zzo38computer wrote:
       | Even if all software is open-source (which I doubt), that does
       | not mean that nobody can earn money from it; there are still ways
       | to earn money, too.
       | 
       | Others:
       | 
       | MS-DOS / PC-DOS -- FreeDOS
       | 
       | ZZT -- ZZT (the source code was rewritten to produce the same
       | executable file; the original source code was not made available)
       | 
       | MESH:Hero Hearts -- Free Hero Mesh
       | 
       | Windows NT -- ReactOS
       | 
       | BTRON -- B-Free (incomplete and seems to be abandoned?)
       | 
       | (And, the above are definitely not all)
        
       | IncRnd wrote:
       | In many cases I use opensource. In a few instances I want a
       | company that supports their products, makes bug-fixes, and is
       | responsive to the concerns and needs of my company. In yet other
       | cases, I need to prove the utility and deterministic longevity of
       | software without philosophical arguments. Yes, much software that
       | is opensource is not as good as for-profit software.
        
       | magpi3 wrote:
       | I have thought this for a while. Open Source/Free software is
       | like the Jason Voorhees in those old Friday the 13th movies
       | (although with more positive effects). Sure you can outrun him
       | for a while, but he is unstoppable and while you tire, he never
       | will.
       | 
       | The economic factors that can undermine a closed-source project,
       | and that seemingly inevitably will undermine most closed-source
       | projects one day, have little to no effect on an open source one.
       | An open source project just needs developer mind share and users,
       | and it can go on indefinitely. And it doesn't need a lot. Maybe
       | just 5-10 developers and a 100 users or so and it will keep
       | progressing. And with a global developer and userbase to draw
       | from, that is not a hard number to achieve.
       | 
       | Just look at Haiku OS.
       | 
       | https://www.haiku-os.org/
       | 
       | That project by all rights should be dead. But 20 years have
       | passed and it is still very much alive. And it keeps getting
       | better. And one day who knows.
        
         | pjmlp wrote:
         | Nice they have a hobby, but it is hardly the experience that
         | using BeOS once was.
        
       | contravariant wrote:
       | That graph with the green 'blind spot' deserves some praise. A
       | lot of people might have missed the (in hindsight) obvious
       | censoring problem with the data and just ran with the conclusion
       | that the duration is decreasing rapidly.
        
       | kristopolous wrote:
       | The methodology is really flawed.
       | 
       | Why Microsoft office and not Lotus symphony which predated it 6
       | years? There is plenty of open source typesetting software and
       | editors that goes back to the 70s. Why use OO as the comparator?
       | 
       | You want a GUI? Abiword is 1998. A suite? Koffice is 2000.
       | 
       | Why not compare it with VisiOn or WordStar?
       | 
       | And Word came out in 1983, why not start the clock there? Office
       | was announced in 1988, why not there?
       | 
       | Electric Pencil was 1976, that's where GUI word processing that
       | led to WordStar, WordPerfect and MS Word really started, why not
       | that?
       | 
       | Xerox BravoX was 1972, there was a commercial product called the
       | Xerox 860 with it in 1974, why not that? Here's a commercial from
       | 1977, I think that obviously counts:
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lQb8hgg2gGs
       | 
       | Nope 1990. It's totally arbitrary
       | 
       | All of these have that same flaw. Before Netscape was Cello in
       | 1993, MacWWW in 1992, both commercial. It was a mix of open
       | source and commercial the whole time.
       | 
       | Photoshop was just a knockoff of Deluxepaint which was a knockoff
       | of the Quantel Paintbox
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantel_Paintbox
       | 
       | Here's a video of the use.
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BwO4LP0wLbY
       | 
       | Again just an arbitrary year.
       | 
       | Besides, in the long history of software, what's open source? Are
       | we talking the cabinets next to the TX-0 at MIT in the 1960s with
       | paper tapes that you could cut copy and modify? The source code
       | published for free in the zines and journals marked public domain
       | in the 1970s through things like flexi-discs? People broadcasting
       | software over CB radio in the 1980s? Only things released after
       | the modern regime of copyrights was collected and cataloged?
       | 
       | It's just sloppy, arbitrary data and therefore invalid
       | conclusions. This is bad science.
        
       | vitiral wrote:
       | > Two things become clear with this chart... Second, the trend is
       | downward
       | 
       | Um... No. The "trend" is due to the fact we don't know the
       | future.
       | 
       | Seriously, it takes about 7-10 years for a OS project to take
       | off, so you won't be seeing the 10 year replacements for
       | proprietary software from 5 years ago.
       | 
       | The "trend" looks like more of a random distribution which
       | narrows as it gets closer to the present.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | There's a graph further down about this point. Both the minimum
         | and the maximum appear to be dropping. Though especially with
         | the minimum there might be recency bias at play here. It's not
         | exactly a random sample of software we're looking at.
        
       | anonymoushn wrote:
       | I'm excitedly awaiting the open source alternative to Oodle!
        
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