[HN Gopher] How to play continuous blackjack
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How to play continuous blackjack
Author : alexmolas
Score : 41 points
Date : 2022-08-24 09:54 UTC (4 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.amolas.dev)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.amolas.dev)
| texaslonghorn5 wrote:
| Interesting problem statement and good analysis. If I am
| understanding correctly then this is continuous space discrete
| time. How might the problem change if time was also continuous,
| meaning card-draw would be integration of some random continuous
| function, rather than discrete samples?
| Someone wrote:
| If there wouldn't be a delay between observing the current
| value and stopping (assuming a reasonably well-behaved
| distribution P), that problem is trivial: stop when you reach
| the threshold.
|
| So, you would have to add some time delay between observation
| of a value and actual stopping.
|
| Intuitively, I can think of two stopping strategies that might
| be optimal: call 'stop' when the expected value at stop is that
| [?] 0.5706 or call stop when the probability of overshooting it
| is 50%.
|
| I'm fairly sure that intuition is wrong in general, though.
| kqr wrote:
| I can't seem to access the server with the article right now,
| but generally the easiest way to get there is as the limit of
| the discrete case as the timestep d -> 0 and the payoff scaled
| down so they still add up to the same macro conditions.
|
| I suspect it would be the same but less interesting, though.
| The smaller you make the increments, the closer the optimal
| stopping point is to 21. At the limit, the stopping point would
| be 21, and -- I think -- all N players plus dealer would have
| an 1/(N+1) chance of reaching it.
|
| Basically, without jumps, it just becomes a situation with all
| players waiting for a continuous counter to reach 21, and then
| stopping precisely as it does. The one who was lucky to have
| the fastest counter (on average) wins. (With jumps as in
| discrete Blackjack, the fastest counter not necessarily the
| best!)
|
| What might make it more interesting is if you did introduce
| discontinuities in the otherwise continuous process. So
| basically each player is fed with what looks like the absolute
| values of stock price movements, and has to stand somewhere.
| That should be easy to simulate and maybe even fun to play!
| hnhuhn wrote:
| https://archive.ph/HqOvu
| AreYouSirius wrote:
| Casinos shuffle cards after every 1-5 draws, online casinos
| shuffle cards after every draw, so COUNTING CARD IS DEAD. AND WAS
| VERY LONG TIME AGO
|
| 99.99% of youtube channels dealing with counting cards are SCAM.
| nvader wrote:
| Please read the actual article, which about a mathematical game
| using a continuous random distribution. Other than the name, it
| is very dissimilar to the Casino game.
| coopreme wrote:
| There are still many Vegas casinos where you get 3/2 odds on
| blackjack and play with a six deck shoe. Don't give business to
| the strip CSM and 6/5 games if you don't like it.
| hot_gril wrote:
| In Vegas in 2021, I was surprised to see double or even
| (rarely) single 0 roulette tables mostly empty, right next to
| full triple-0 tables with the same min bet. Players seemed to
| understand the game too, so I guess the better table had just
| opened up and they didn't feel like moving.
| evandale wrote:
| There's still single and double deck blackjack too. Treasure
| Island on the strip has double deck and a lot of casinos on
| Fremont, with El Cortez being my favorite, has single deck.
| Both are 3/2.
| mentalpiracy wrote:
| The Cromwell, mid-strip, has 3/2 odds on its tables. Most
| tables are 6-8 deck shoes, and I believe there is one or two
| tables of single deck.
| jamal-kumar wrote:
| Bally's has the single-deck blackjack going on but if you win
| too hard someone comes up to you to warn you that you're
| winning too hard
| AreYouSirius wrote:
| so even if everything in that paper is VALID mathematically, in
| reality it will not work because blackjack in casinos is
| DIFFERENT game then one that is played in this paper.
| hot_gril wrote:
| The paper isn't claiming anywhere to tell you how to play in
| casinos.
| whiterock wrote:
| it's a mathematical excursion... it's not meant to be a real
| life applicable thing. read the article before posting please
| :)
| roninghost wrote:
| Hi Alex, did I get my Tipler back from you?
|
| Just kiding, nice article.
| SilasX wrote:
| What is going on? I remember seeing this several days ago, which
| the search feature confirms[1], but now, it appears again with
| the same story URL but is now only two hours old? With all
| comments forward-dated too?
|
| [1] https://hn.algolia.com/?q=continuous+blackjack
| jtokoph wrote:
| HN admins/mods are able to give posts that they deem
| interesting a second chance.
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