[HN Gopher] How messed up was Germany's energy policy?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       How messed up was Germany's energy policy?
        
       Author : guerby
       Score  : 90 points
       Date   : 2022-08-22 19:33 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (jeromeaparis.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (jeromeaparis.substack.com)
        
       | btilly wrote:
       | This article says, "Germany did a bunch of reasonable looking
       | things."
       | 
       | But after Russia invaded Georgia (2008) then Ukraine (2014),
       | Germany worked to increase dependence on Russia for both
       | electricity and heating. They failed to take even the most basic
       | steps to diversify. Such as building LNG terminals to give them
       | the option of importing gas from countries like the USA.
       | 
       | And it wasn't like there wasn't some history demonstrating the
       | Russia wasn't always a reliable supplier. For example in 2009
       | they shut off gas for 10 days. As it happens they had a good
       | reason (dispute with Ukraine over Ukraine stealing gas - which
       | Ukraine had been). But fundamentally all of Europe, Germany
       | included, should have been on notice that a single man could take
       | out their gas supply. A man whose capriciousness was demonstrated
       | in 2008 by his invasion of Georgia.
       | 
       | Why on Earth did Germany not work to diversify? And why, given
       | the current consequences of that past failure, are people trying
       | to defend Germany's past bad decisions?
        
         | cheriot wrote:
         | We can add Chechnya (1999) to that list.
         | 
         | https://www.historyonthenet.com/putins-first-invasion-the-19...
        
           | sam_lowry_ wrote:
           | It's different.
        
             | cheriot wrote:
             | How is that?
             | 
             | https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/chechnya-war
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | Chechnya was inside of Russia's national boundaries. And
               | therefore was not a violation of international law.
        
               | cheriot wrote:
               | The question is whether it was ever reasonable to see
               | Putin as a reliable partner. The first thing he did in
               | office was launch a brutal invasion, stifle the press,
               | and ignore war crimes committed by the Russian army.
               | 
               | Is that the track record of someone a democratic country
               | can trust?
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | > Why on Earth did Germany not work to diversify?
         | 
         | As I understand it, the general thrust of Germany's Russia
         | policy (until several months ago) was a kind of energy-politik
         | [1]: bind Russia into the world economy via the need to
         | maintain stable energy links, and it will be less likely to be
         | a capricious bully to its neighbors. Which doesn't make a lot
         | of sense to me, but I guess the relevant figures somehow
         | figured that Russia was acting like a petulant child only
         | because people were treating it as a petulant child?
         | 
         | [1] Sorry, I don't know the German word for "energy" to write
         | the proper German compound word.
        
           | xxpor wrote:
           | Die Energie, pronounced basically like "en-er-gee", where the
           | g is like gulp, not like jump (or... energy), and ee is long
           | e ([i])
        
           | DoingIsLearning wrote:
           | > I guess the relevant figures somehow figured that Russia
           | was acting like a petulant child only because people were
           | treating it as a petulant child?
           | 
           | You are trying to post-rationalize this with some 4d chess
           | realpolitik. Just follow the money. [0]
           | 
           | [0] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-ex-
           | chancellor-sc...
        
             | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
             | Many of the decisions were made my Merkel who, despite lots
             | of flaws, is with absolute certainty immune from the allure
             | of money. She's never shown any interest in it, had any
             | income other than her government salary, and spend 16 years
             | while in power living in a modest apartment within walking
             | distance from the office.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | > Why on Earth did Germany not work to diversify?
         | 
         | So they could benefit financially by being the natural gas hub
         | for Europe. As you said, the reasons not to work with Russia
         | were plainly obvious.
        
         | piva00 wrote:
         | What's even more egregious is that Germany has ran multiple
         | years with a massive budget surplus (2018 + 2019 alone amass to
         | 100biEUR). Imagine if that could be used to be invested in ways
         | to have a diversified grid...
        
         | RandomLensman wrote:
         | Because in the past that also would have likely forced a
         | rethinking/reexamination of Germany's defense setup and that
         | would have been impossible to sell domestically.
        
         | edgyquant wrote:
         | I can't make the argument a previous head of state should be
         | mandated from working where the free market takes them.
         | 
         | I also can't argue that the decisions of Germany's leadership
         | make a ton of sense. Or rather I can, the economic argument and
         | Germany not likely to deal with a Russia near home it isn't
         | able to easily deal with (outside of MAD.) That calculus makes
         | sense to me I get and even still agree with the principle.
         | 
         | But you also have to look out for your national security and it
         | really seems like Germany wasn't looking out for anyone but
         | it's self here. Germany faces no serious conventional threat
         | from Russia nor does it currently have competing spheres of
         | influence. However as part of NATO and the EU does.
         | 
         | So it looks to be pretty clear that the Germans do not consider
         | that they and, say, Lithuania share the same goals.
        
           | mistrial9 wrote:
           | germans and russians have been fighting for 1000 years. Take
           | the calendar and mark the times when they were _not_
           | fighting. Constructive engagement is sane; endless war from
           | all sides is not sane
        
           | enaaem wrote:
           | Russia's expansion is definitely a national security thread
           | to Germany. The thing is that Germany didn't believed that
           | Russia would expand. It was a gross miscalculation on
           | Germany's side. Believing promises and neglecting
           | capabilities.
           | 
           | If Russia takes Ukraine their population grows to 180
           | Million. With the Baltics and Belarus they will be near near
           | 200 million. Expecting Poland (at 40 Mln) to hold the
           | Russians of is ridiculous.
        
             | edgyquant wrote:
             | I think this may be a mischaracterization. Germany believed
             | that, knows really, that it is richer economically and has
             | a tech gap thanks to NATO over them.
             | 
             | Germanys stance was that Russia will piss and moan as it's
             | elite slowly lose their autocratic regime to a Republican
             | one (similar to South Korea and Taiwan.)
             | 
             | I'm not convinced this has changed and it is my opinion
             | that German policy is a pretty obvious open secret that
             | Ukraine and Russia is there problem.
             | 
             | You can see this in their reaction to the invasion where
             | they stalled with hold off rhetoric because they couldn't
             | believe we're taking this seriously.
             | 
             | So it wasn't ignorance that Russia would bully the two
             | smaller "Russians" it was a calculated risk and an accepted
             | cost of doing business.
        
         | pmayrgundter wrote:
         | Cui bono?
         | 
         | Kissinger noted in Diplomacy (1994) that Germany's key role in
         | European history has been main defender of Central Europe
         | against Russia. To me, there's no way Germany missed the point
         | of Russian moves of the past decade.
         | 
         | So assume for a moment that they knew this day was coming.
         | 
         | If they have energy independence, they might also be called to
         | task to play their traditional role and their natural role now
         | as the powerhouse of the EU and NATO, to lead the fight against
         | Russia.
         | 
         | But if they're hobbled by energy dependence, they can shrug and
         | say "sorry, it's simply not a feasible option for us. We're
         | sitting this one out." Which seems to be what they have done.
         | 
         | Add they get cover from their domestic green problems as well.
         | Alles ist gut.
        
         | jltsiren wrote:
         | For the same reason the world didn't take climate change
         | seriously already in the 90s. It didn't align with short-term
         | economic interests. As mentioned in the article, the prevailing
         | political climate had made energy imports less political and
         | more a matter of economics. Increasing energy imports from
         | Russia made sense in that climate.
         | 
         | The Russian invasion of Georgia wasn't a big deal in West
         | Europe. It was like the US invasion of Iraq. An empire invaded
         | a faraway country because its leaders had some personal issues.
         | That's what empires do. Political leaders condemned it, but
         | there were limited practical consequences, because everything
         | happened far away. And because the EU was not trying to be an
         | empire shaping the world in its image.
         | 
         | East European countries took things more seriously, because
         | they are closer to Russia and more vulnerable to its whims.
         | 
         | Even the 2014 invasion of Ukraine wasn't a major issue. Until
         | then, Ukraine was seen as one of the corrupt post-Soviet states
         | that didn't know whether they wanted to align with Russia or
         | Europe. As long as Putin's ambitions were limited, they were
         | not a West European concern. Leaders again condemned Putin's
         | actions and some sanctions were issued, but that's it. Putin's
         | Russia was still seen as a fact of life West Europe had to
         | learn to coexist with.
         | 
         | Things changed after 2014. Ukraine aligned with the West. When
         | Putin invaded the next time, it was a full-scale invasion of an
         | unambigously European country. That did concern West Europe,
         | because it was dangerously close.
         | 
         | The whole situation looks like a mutual misunderstanding of the
         | motives on the other side. Putin seems to have counted for a
         | limited European reaction, because he didn't understand that
         | non-empires tend to make pragmatic rather than ideologically
         | motivated decisions. He assumed that West European complacency
         | was an ideological rather than a pragmatic position. Similarly,
         | West European leaders didn't see that the threat of the
         | invasion was real, because they assumed empires would also make
         | pragmatic rather than ideological decisions.
        
         | AnonymousPlanet wrote:
         | > Why on Earth did Germany not work to diversify?
         | 
         | Diversify towards what? The biggest consumers of gas is heating
         | homes and the chemical industry. Most houses have gas or oil
         | heating. Do you convert from gas back to oil? Or to coal?
         | Because most urban housing in Germany cannot be easily
         | transferred to heat pumps, you know. The cost for conversion is
         | prohibitive. In most cases you would have to cancel rental
         | contracts to free the flat for conversion. How do you convince
         | house owners and tenants to go with such a mad stunt that will
         | mutliply their heating costs? All for a hunch of "someone might
         | do something crazy in the east".
         | 
         | How do you convert a chemical industry that cannot subsitute
         | gas for any other product? Push them abroad?
         | 
         | Please have reasonable and informed answers to these questions
         | before asking question like
         | 
         | > And why, given the current consequences of that past failure,
         | are people trying to defend Germany's past bad decisions?
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | Your lecture would have been more reasonable if I had not
           | already given a specific example of diversification. Namely
           | the construction of a LNG terminal.
           | 
           | Here are numbers for you. The Sabine Pass LNG project in
           | Louisiana, USA, was constructed for about $5 billion. Its
           | capacity is almost exactly the same as the Nord Stream 1
           | pipeline, which was constructed for approximately EUR15.7
           | billion. Thus for 1/3 of the cost of the pipeline, Germany
           | could have provided themselves a backup plan for Russian gas,
           | while requiring zero changes from industry and consumers.
           | 
           | This one time investment would have been a fraction of what
           | Germany spends each year subsidizing renewable energy, and a
           | drop compared to the cost of shutting down nuclear. Therefore
           | the cost of making sure that there was a second supplier of
           | gas available would have been quite reasonable to do some
           | years ago.
           | 
           | Given that it hasn't been done, it is impossible to do on
           | short notice. But Germany could have done it, should have
           | done it, and was repeatedly advised by allies to do exactly
           | that. And failed to.
        
             | AnonymousPlanet wrote:
             | > Your lecture would have been more reasonable if I had not
             | already given a specific example of diversification. Namely
             | the construction of a LNG terminal.
             | 
             | > Here are numbers for you. The Sabine Pass LNG project in
             | Louisiana, USA, was constructed for about $5 billion. Its
             | capacity is almost exactly the same as the Nord Stream 1
             | pipeline, which was constructed for approximately EUR15.7
             | billion. Thus for 1/3 of the cost of the pipeline, Germany
             | could have provided themselves a backup plan for Russian
             | gas, while requiring zero changes from industry and
             | consumers.
             | 
             | LNG isn't even in the ballpark of what would be needed to
             | replace Russian gas in volume. About 40 LNG terminals are
             | currently operational in the EU. Even if you could use
             | their full capacity, it wouldn't be enough to replace
             | Russian gas. And it wouldn't affect prices positively
             | aswell. LNG is only good for preventing actual shortages,
             | not replacing the source. Even if Germany had built 5 LNG
             | terminals in the last decade, it would be a drop in the
             | bucket.
        
           | seydor wrote:
           | Germany has lignite to use for electricity and oil for
           | heating, as you said. That should be enough to reduce demand
           | and thus prices.
           | 
           | Long-term there are gas reserves in Netherlands , in the
           | mediterranean etc. The EU has options.
           | 
           | I have to also ask why? Germany obviously has options but why
           | is it taboo to ask them to change their policies abruptly and
           | temporarily? We have a war in europe
        
             | glogla wrote:
             | > Germany obviously has choices but why is it taboo to ask
             | them to change their policies abruptly and temporarily? We
             | have a war in europe
             | 
             | I think the problem here is that the Germans would rather
             | have war in Eastern Europe (people of which they probably
             | don't consider important) than more expensive heating.
        
               | fkall wrote:
               | Germany has taken 900,000 refugees. Why not send them to
               | a similarly sized U.S. state and watch the reactions?
               | 
               | U.S. citizens already complain about gas prices (which
               | are still much lower than in Europe). How about raising
               | them the European prices and see if they still virtue
               | signal?
               | 
               | As usual, the U.S. supports a war and Europe pays for it.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | AnonymousPlanet wrote:
             | The oil for heating has been phased out in favour of gas
             | because of emissions. So for most homes this would mean to
             | convert back to bulky oil tanks. It's probably cheaper than
             | heat pumps and you can keep the plumbing. The plumbing and
             | use of radiators is a big problem for heat pumps because of
             | the higher temperatures that are needed to heat radiators
             | on the 4th floor etc.
             | 
             | Other houses never had oil. They switched from coal
             | straight to gas in the 60s and 70s. But here the furnace is
             | usually on the same floor as the radiators. But conversion
             | is still expensive.
             | 
             | > Germany obviously has options but why is it taboo to ask
             | them to change their policies abruptly and temporarily?
             | 
             | It's not taboo to ask to change policies. Actually a lot of
             | policies _are_ changing. Even support for nuclear is on the
             | rise.
             | 
             | But one of these changes in policies might have to be
             | abandoning some goals of emission reduction. One of the
             | reasons why gas was on the move up is because it burns much
             | cleaner than oil or coal. So converting all that oil
             | heating to gas was incentivised by the government. Also gas
             | is much better in filling in the gaps for renewables than
             | nuclear or coal which can't be switchted off again so
             | easily.
             | 
             | The plan was to move from coal to renewables. The path
             | there was via gas. A very reasonable bridge technology.
             | 
             | Putin's war came too early for that conversion but luckily
             | not too late to stop switching coal to gas.
             | 
             | BTW, Germany never had enough nuclear plants to provide
             | more than about a quarter of today's electric demand
             | anyway. Most was coal. Even if Germany never decided to
             | phase out nuclear, the problems would have pretty much the
             | same magnitude.
        
         | yks wrote:
         | Ukraine has been a pain in Germany's neck, Nord Streams are the
         | most visible result of that but then there are also anecdotes
         | of Merkel ignoring Yushchenko, German delegations not attending
         | Ukrainian independence parades and so on. Even now Merkel is
         | openly saying "no regrets" in the face of the bona fide
         | genocide, that's how little empathy German leadership has for
         | Ukraine.
         | 
         | I think the calculus was that Ukraine is never going to be in
         | NATO and so its future is at best irrelevant for Germany, and
         | at worst they'd prefer it absorbed by Russia who Germans enjoy
         | dealing with. But in the meantime Eastern European countries
         | gained power, and they are really not okay with Russian
         | imperial project (Hungary aside). So now Germany, being an ally
         | with Eastern Europe on paper, has to do something, so they are
         | reluctantly doing the bare minimum.
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | Interesting. Not a single mention of the impact of foreign policy
       | precipitating this potential energy crisis. Foreign policy cannot
       | be untangled from domestic policy.
       | 
       | There is now this idea that the only reasonable thing to do was
       | to completely cut off Russia from international trade, _prior to
       | the unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine_. Why? Because that made
       | you dependent on Russia and that 's just ontologically bad.
       | That's not a reasonable position to have. I mean people trade
       | with China in spite of Tibet, the Uyghurs, Hong Kong and
       | Tiananmen Square, Saudi Arabia in spite of providing material
       | support to al-Qaeda (and being the country probably most
       | responsible for 9/11), an unjustifable genocide in Yemen and
       | Khashoggi or even the United States despite many sins that can
       | reasonbly be listed.
       | 
       | Trade in particular and engagement in general is the only
       | reasonable path towards Russia or really any other power we may
       | not like.
       | 
       | The problem was that Germany and the US through NATO expected
       | Putin to swallow something the US never would ie a hostile major
       | power in your backyard. I mean the US almost started World War 3
       | when the USSR tried this in Cuba (after the US had already done
       | it to Turkey).
       | 
       | But instead people like the frame this debate as you should never
       | have traded with Russia and/or to support the narrative that
       | nuclear power is good.
        
       | locallost wrote:
       | The author here makes a great point that Germany kickstarted the
       | renewable industry for the whole world, by basically investing in
       | it before it made economic sense. But they managed to invent the
       | future here because now it makes economic sense for everybody.
       | The overall effect of this on the global situation is worth
       | pondering, the numbers in renewables vs everything else in the
       | world are quite staggering in the last years. I think a lot of
       | people didn't catch up on it.
       | 
       | It's pretty clear that investments in renewables will continue to
       | accelerate, especially considering the war. And because they are
       | so fast to deploy, the renewable share has no other option but to
       | go up. The one unanswered question is how high can it go.
       | Realistically until somebody does 100%, there will always be
       | questions. But in my life I've heard "you can't do 10%/20%/30%"
       | etc. and now plenty of countries run on majority renewables and
       | don't have issues.
       | 
       | The issue is very divisive, but I'm glad more and more articles
       | like these are popping up, with some hard numbers that paint a
       | very different picture than "Germany replaced nuclear with coal,
       | madness".
        
         | glogla wrote:
         | > The issue is very divisive, but I'm glad more and more
         | articles like these are popping up, with some hard numbers that
         | paint a very different picture than "Germany replaced nuclear
         | with coal, madness".
         | 
         | The picture is not all that different sadly. Renewables are
         | intermittent, so renewables without storage or low-carbon
         | baseload (= nuclear) will need fossil fuels.
         | 
         | Germany's policy is to remove as much low-carbon baseload as
         | possible both inside and outside its borders (by pushing anti-
         | nuclear policies). They are doing nothing in storage.
         | 
         | It was basically greenwashing Russian natural gas, combined
         | with typical German attitude of "we are the enlightened us, we
         | know better" that makes it impossible for them to learn from
         | this mistake.
        
       | empiricus wrote:
       | I feel like the focus should be on cheaper energy (Is 10x cheaper
       | possible?) than focus on green energy. Cheap energy would open a
       | lot of opportunities (carbon sequestration?) and solve a lot of
       | economic tensions. But it looks like the energy markets are going
       | towards bigger prices and probably more profit that way.
        
         | perlgeek wrote:
         | If we made natural gas 10x cheaper, using it for carbon
         | sequestration wouldn't work at all...
        
         | jhallenworld wrote:
         | Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy, they just
         | happen to also be green. But this is a recent development-
         | fossil fuels were cheaper in the recent past.
         | 
         | The transition to them would be a lot cheaper if the opposition
         | from the incumbent energy suppliers was not so stiff.
         | 
         | https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...
        
           | google234123 wrote:
           | Solar and wind are very expensive when it's dark or not
           | windy.
        
           | eldaisfish wrote:
           | you quoted Lazard. I always warn anyone quoting that study to
           | be careful with the prices claimed there. There are two major
           | issues - one that the current prices of wind and solar are
           | primarily driven by zero fuel cost. Meanwhile, the rest of
           | the grid continues to exist. Second - because the grid
           | exists, energy for when the wind isn't blowing at night can
           | come from somewhere and your lights stay on. Wind and solar
           | introduce volatility into the mix, volatility on the
           | generation side. That has a cost that is not currently borne
           | by them but by us - the consumers.
           | 
           | Lazard and co conveniently ignore this aspect when claiming
           | that wind and solar are as cheap as they make them out to be.
           | To be clear, wind and solar _are_ cheap but that may or may
           | not hold true in the future.
           | 
           | There is currently no gigawatt scale power grid anywhere that
           | runs on renewable energy for more than minutes at a time.
           | Renewables are very far from being able to provide energy
           | 24/7 and cheaply.
        
             | Krasnol wrote:
             | I don't get your criticism.
             | 
             | Why should there not be zero fuel cost?
             | 
             | Your second argument is supposed to be a variable? Since
             | with a wider grid, the volatility falls ("there is always
             | wind somewhere"). I also don't think the size of the whole
             | grid should be priced into a single power source. Why not
             | price that into other non-green sources too if the local
             | grid doesn't support the whole country?
        
               | nonethewiser wrote:
               | I think the point is that the cost of solar is actually
               | the cost of solar + the cost of whatever other source
               | required to supplement it.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The issue is that intermittent sources are really working
               | to subtract the emissions of fossil fuel plants.
               | Generating electricity completely, or even partially from
               | intermittent sources is a totally different ball game.
               | 
               | Put this in practice: Solar costs $5 per watt hour, and
               | comprises 25% of the grid. Fossil fuels cost $10 per watt
               | hour and comprise 100% of the grid. Solar is cheaper than
               | fossil fuels in a zero fuel cost model. But you can't
               | just change the remaining 75% of the grid to solar and
               | save a bunch of money. Solar produces energy in a sine
               | wave (in the short term, there's also weather
               | fluctuations in the longer term). You'd end up with a
               | huge energy surplus at noon, and energy shortages from
               | dusk to dawn.
               | 
               | In this sense the actual price of renewables is heavily
               | dependent on the price of fossil fuels. Because wind and
               | solar are really "gas supplemented by wind and solar".
               | You can't have the latter without the former. Hence why
               | Germany is in such a bind right now.
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | They have it right on the first page: look for the little
             | diamond that represents the marginal cost to produce power
             | at a fully depreciated gas plant, $24/MWh. [This price is
             | certainly no longer true thanks to Russia].
             | 
             | But it's unfair: what is the marginal cost of solar or wind
             | at a fully depreciated solar or wind plant?
             | 
             | Also: they have the cost of PV+storage on the last page.
        
             | bjourne wrote:
             | That's like saying supermarkets "introduce volatility"
             | because they aren't open 24/7 like some convenience stores.
             | Of course prices will increase when the number of vendor
             | decreases (e.g not sunny and not windy), like it always
             | does in liquid markets. What you are saying is that
             | electricity shouldn't be treated as a commodity sold on an
             | open market and instead should be regulated and subsidized
             | by states. But that's what got us into this mess. If things
             | like CO2 pollution had been accurately factored into
             | prices, more people would have biked to work, installed
             | solar panels, and invested in better home insulation.
             | 
             | I live in a small apartment with district heating and my
             | electricity bill is consequently low. I don't want to
             | subsidize nuclear power just so that those who live in
             | large electricity-heated villas should get lower
             | electricity bills.
        
           | nonethewiser wrote:
           | How much money do I need to pay to make my house hot using
           | solar panels? And natural gas?
           | 
           | Perhaps you meant to contextualize your claim a bit.
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | >How much money do I need to pay to make my house hot using
             | solar panels?
             | 
             | It might possible depending on how much land you have, but
             | is certainly impractical. I mean you could theoretically do
             | it with a large enough area and your own storage system,
             | but it would sure cost a lot.
             | 
             | >And natural gas?
             | 
             | It's completely impossible without the natural gas grid
             | (and electric grid). Unless.. do you have a natural gas
             | well on your property?
        
         | knodi123 wrote:
         | Cheap energy _has_ been the focus- almost the sole focus, above
         | everything else. That leads to eased tensions and tons of
         | opportunities, and most importantly, _absolute shitloads_ of
         | carbon in the atmosphere.
         | 
         | Are you under the impressions that we haven't been working
         | towards cheaper energy over the last several decades?
        
       | baq wrote:
       | The whole EU is setting up for a more interesting winter than...
       | 1989? Not sure since I've been barely alive then but certainly it
       | hasn't been this dire since quite a while
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | Was a hot summer too.
        
       | standardUser wrote:
       | "The share of renewables in actually generation has gone from
       | essentially nothing in 2000 (a bit of hydro), to 40-50% of the
       | total (depending on how you count biomass and waste-to-energy)"
       | 
       | Based on that, it's one of the only sane energy policies on the
       | planet! Minus the premature closure of nuclear plants.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | And yet, Germany produces more CO2 than any other European
         | nation, and much more CO2 per capita than India.
        
           | barry-cotter wrote:
           | Germany has 15 million people more than France, the next most
           | populous European country. It is hardly surprising they
           | produce more carbon dioxide. India will surpass Germany
           | unless the degrowthers get their way and condemn Indians to
           | permanent poverty which doesn't look likely.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | Where are you getting that number from? Couldn't this just mean
         | they stopped producing as much nuclear, for example? I'm sure
         | they have increased their green energy, but we can't tell from
         | this figure. In fact, the total output could have actually
         | decreased but increased relative to others.
         | 
         | Especially if they traded domestic energy produciton for piping
         | in more natural gas straight to homes for heating.
        
         | waschl wrote:
         | For sure growth at renewables is great. However the overall
         | percentages you gave are all-year averages. It goes down to
         | single digit % on dark windstill winter days.
         | 
         | Considering this and the fact that nuclear energy (Fukushima),
         | coal (climate change) and now gas (Putin) are effectively
         | ,,banned", it's really quite a mess.
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | Those percentages are just shares of _electricity_.
         | 
         | Their share of energy is more dire.
         | 
         | Natural gas is just 15% of German electricity production, but
         | nearly half of residential heating. Then there's gas-obligatory
         | fertilizer production, on-premise electricity generation
         | (campuses), cooking fuel, etc.
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-n...
        
           | olau wrote:
           | Storing heat is actually much easier than storing
           | electricity. In relatively dense areas with district heating,
           | you can even establish storage that retains heat from the
           | summer.
           | 
           | Yes, it requires investments and scaling up of the production
           | of these solutions - the reason these investments haven't
           | been made yet, is plainly that it wasn't deemed necessary
           | yet. Continuing burning fossil fuels was cheaper.
           | 
           | Why would gas be obligatory for fertilizer production? I've
           | dug into some industrial uses in my country (bakeries for
           | instance), and in all the cases I looked into, gas was not
           | actually required, just a bit cheaper or more convenient. If
           | you put a tax on gas, all of them would switch within a few
           | years. It looks like you need hydrogen for fertilizer, so I
           | guess switching to (more expensive) hydrolysis would be the
           | solution there.
        
             | Xylakant wrote:
             | Gas is needed for fertilizer production because it's one of
             | the input resources - Haber-Bosch capture of ammonia
             | (nitrogen) requires a source of hydrogen and that's usually
             | natural gas since it's rich in hydrogen.
             | 
             | As such, lumping in the gas that's used for fertilizer
             | production in with gas used for energy production makes
             | limited sense - it's not fungible and can't just replaced
             | with nuclear (or any other) energy. In the future, it would
             | be possible to use hydrogen generated via hydrolysis, but
             | we're pretty far off doing that on industrial scale.
        
               | AstralStorm wrote:
               | There are hydrogen and methane generation processes that
               | also do some small carbon capture, to manufacture ammonia
               | ultimately.
               | 
               | The problem is that they require too much heat and
               | electricity and currently are not yet viable. They would
               | be viable in a slightly oversized grid with at least 75%
               | renewables.
        
               | wahern wrote:
               | Relatedly, Russia is a top exporter of fertilizers:
               | https://thehill.com/policy/3513855-why-the-fertilizer-
               | market...
               | 
               | Interestingly, while over the past 10-15 years the U.S.
               | condemned Germany for importing natural gas from Russia,
               | the U.S. was methodically displacing some of its domestic
               | fertilizer production with imports, a substantial
               | fraction coming from Russia and Belarus--in particular,
               | 12% of U.S. potash consumption comes from Russia, and 93%
               | imported overall. See
               | https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/03/war-in-ukraine-
               | and.... It seems small but it turned out to be a
               | significant direct short-term lever, and presumably a
               | much bigger lever with many other countries; and that's
               | not even considering indirect leverage from Russia's
               | ability to manipulate global market prices and thus U.S.
               | domestic prices.
               | 
               | Perhaps the only thing that hits harder than an increase
               | in energy prices is an increase in food prices.
               | 
               | (OTOH, for all I know the USDA, etc, may have actually
               | been diligently working to minimize foreign dependence
               | without being too disruptive--politically or economically
               | --and the current percentages and source country
               | distributions were the best they could accomplish.)
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | More likely your domestic fertilizer production will
             | shutdown and you'll import it from places that don't tax
             | natural gas as highly, unless you have ultra-cheap
             | electricity.
             | 
             | This isn't a horrid idea if you don't have access to piped
             | gas (LNG = hard to ship, nitrogen salts = easy).
             | 
             | Having said that, I am all for replacing income taxes with
             | carbon taxes.
             | 
             | Taxing people's work, skill and effort should be avoided at
             | all costs.
        
           | filoleg wrote:
           | This. The situation here seems like the inverse of investment
           | rounds for startups, where "the pie gets larger, and the
           | value of your share gets larger, despite you share of the pie
           | itself becoming smaller." Their share of renewables got
           | larger, but the overall energy pie itself got smaller, and
           | that's a problem.
        
           | paganel wrote:
           | Using gas for residential heating is saner compared to using
           | electricity (what the French are using, for example). Afaik
           | it also makes it easier to use centralised heating systems,
           | which are more efficient than "outsourcing" the heating to
           | each building or even to each apartment.
        
             | standardUser wrote:
             | I measure sanity on a simple scale of "this produces carbon
             | emissions that will accelerate climate change and its
             | catastrophic consequences" to "it doesn't do that".
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | Heat pumps have gotten much better over the last decade.
             | They don't work as well in sub 10 degree Fahrenheit
             | weather, but in the 20-40 range are more efficient than
             | furnaces from what I understand.
        
             | iforgotpassword wrote:
             | That's not true, even if you produce electricity from gas,
             | using a heat pump to heat your home rather than a gas-
             | powered central heating is more efficient.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Generally correct, except they now have people running
               | air conditioning in summer now that they have it.
        
               | iforgotpassword wrote:
               | Which will hopefully be running from solar then, when the
               | sun's out. ;-)
        
           | standardUser wrote:
           | We should be so lucky to live in a world where most nations
           | had achieved even a third of electricity generation from
           | renewables. We'd be vastly better off than we are now! So I
           | am happy to give credit in those few cases where credit is
           | due.
        
             | morning_gelato wrote:
             | I think carbon-intensity (gCO2eq/kWh) is a much more
             | important metric than the use of specific generating
             | technologies. Looking at the data [1], Germany has one of
             | the dirtiest electrical grids in western Europe.
             | 
             | [1] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE
        
               | standardUser wrote:
               | We all know that electricity can be utilized for purposes
               | currently monopolized by fossil fuels, including heating
               | and automobiles. Which means that the end game
               | _necessarily_ includes a rapid transition towards
               | electricity generation from renewables. Germany has gone
               | much father down that road than most nations, even if
               | they have an unfortunately massive amount of electricity
               | still being produced from coal.
        
           | guerby wrote:
           | You can also be more efficient with heat pump than with
           | direct gas heating, including when producing electricity from
           | gas, eg:
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1560556804051968000
           | 
           | "Thought experiment:
           | 
           | 1 UK replaces 24m gas boilers with electric heat pumps
           | 
           | 2 UK builds new gas plants to supply the electricity
           | 
           | => Overall UK gas demand falls by 120TWh (15%)"
        
           | janef0421 wrote:
           | It's worth noting in such discussions that nuclear is also
           | capable of displacing gas in many of these use-cases. Surplus
           | heat from nuclear reactors can be used for district heating,
           | and dedicated reactors can be used to provide heat for
           | industrial processes.
        
       | klanhx wrote:
        
         | lesuorac wrote:
         | > If one criticized Schroeder for his involvement with Gazprom
         | on social media in 2019, comments would get deleted.
         | 
         | [citation needed]
         | 
         | Even NPR criticized him [1].
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/04/18/601825131/...
        
           | kllqp wrote:
        
         | V__ wrote:
         | > Now his missteps are "common knowledge". The whole Nordstream
         | situation is way more nuanced. Nordstream-1 was built before
         | the Crimea invasion after Ukraine stole gas in transit.
         | 
         | However, after the invasion of Georgia. It's not like Russian
         | foreign policy suddenly surprised everyone. It was as bad a
         | decision then as it is now in retrospect.
        
       | Faelian2 wrote:
       | Pretty messed up : https://jancovici.com/en/energy-
       | transition/societal-choices/...
       | 
       | 250 to 300 billion euros, which is more than the cost of
       | rebuilding from scratch all the French nuclear power plants, is
       | what Germany has invested from 1996 to 2014 to increase by 22%
       | the fraction of renewable electricity into the gross production
       | of the country (that went from 4% to 27%).
       | 
       | For this price tag our neighbors did not decrease their energy
       | imports, did not accelerate the decrease of their CO2 emissions
       | per capita, that remain 80% higher to those of a French,
       | increased the stress on the European grid.
        
         | btilly wrote:
         | That's a great analysis, but unfortunately ends at around when
         | Ukraine was first invaded. It doesn't show what has happened in
         | the last several years.
        
         | jakewins wrote:
         | For 250B EUR, Germany paid for the learning curve movement that
         | now enables the rest of the world to deploy solar and
         | batteries. If it was not for German investment to drive that
         | 90% drop in price, bills like the IRA would not even be
         | possible to contemplate.
         | 
         | The "that would pay for the entire French fleet" thing is
         | nonsense. Just google the cost of the most recent plants built
         | anywhere in EU and multiply it by how many you'd need to meet
         | France's 61GW capacity. (example: Hinkley Point C, 75B EUR for
         | 3.26GWe, 61GW/3.26GW = 18, 18*75 = 1,350B EUR, Olkiluoto Unit
         | 3, 11B EUR for 1.6GWe, 61GW/1.6=~38, 38*11=418B EUR).
         | 
         | Yes, Germany paid a huge price for their solar. We should be
         | thankful they did.
        
           | MagnumOpus wrote:
           | Or, you know, one could just take the cost of the French
           | fleet and inflation-adjust it? Technology wasn't that
           | different when they were built. And building scores of
           | reactors has tremendous efficiencies of scale.
        
             | jakewins wrote:
             | It is no longer legal to build the kinds of Gen 2 plants
             | France built their fleet out of, so I don't see how
             | inflation-adjusting that cost would be more accurate than
             | looking at the current market cost.
             | 
             | As an example, today plants are required to not suffer
             | meltdowns if primary power is lost to cooling systems. Many
             | similar sets of rules (see EU Nuclear Safety Directives
             | from 2009 and 2014, for example), add up to much more plant
             | complexity, which increases capex.
        
         | merb wrote:
         | btw. his pricing is completly off and you can't build all
         | french nuclear plants from scratch with 250 to 300 billion
         | euros.
        
           | MagnumOpus wrote:
           | France could.
        
       | landofredwater wrote:
       | The plan to shut down all the nuclear plants was misguided at
       | best.
       | 
       | Seventeen plants were able to supply almost a quarter of
       | Germany's total power [1] for their lifetimes, and then the cost
       | from reimbursing investors into nuclear power is added onto those
       | of having to build more wind and solar.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-
       | pr...
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | guerby wrote:
       | "It's not as bad as a lot of people are saying"
        
       | asguy wrote:
       | Enough for Trump to call them on it 3 years ago?
       | 
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg
        
         | t6jvcereio wrote:
         | Wait, is this the same Trump who said he was getting the USA
         | out of NATO, or is this a different Trump?
        
           | glogla wrote:
           | Broken clock, twice a day?
        
           | asguy wrote:
           | Why are you bringing up something unrelated as a gotcha for
           | something nobody is commenting about?
           | 
           | This is related to Germany energy policy. Trump brought up
           | the danger of depending on Putin's Russia to the Germans, and
           | they laughed at him.
           | 
           | They aren't laughing much now.
           | 
           | What you should be asking is: How was Germany so dumb that
           | Trump saw it, but they didn't?
        
             | t6jvcereio wrote:
             | > What you should be asking is: How was Germany so dumb
             | that Trump saw it, but they didn't?
             | 
             | I would be asking that, if we were talking about someone
             | who's reliably correct. But since we're talking about
             | someone who's held every position and it's opposite on any
             | given subject, I think it's quite obvious what's going on.
             | It's called survivorship bias.
        
             | glogla wrote:
             | > What you should be asking is: How was Germany so dumb
             | that Trump saw it, but they didn't?
             | 
             | They weren't dumb. They were probably ok with helping Putin
             | invade few more countries in Easter Europe - after all, the
             | Germans themselves are quite far and safe, and possibly
             | also care about money more than human lives.
        
             | t6jvcereio wrote:
             | They're not unrelated, there's both the exact opposite bet
             | on the same issue: should the west take Russia at face
             | value?
             | 
             | Saying "Germany needs to look after it's energy
             | independence" is synonym with "the west cant trust Russia",
             | and saying "I'm taking the USA out of NATO" is synonym with
             | "the west can trust Russia".
             | 
             | So he just claimed two opposite views and his fan it's pick
             | and choose.
        
             | rnk wrote:
             | Because it's a good, realistic comparison. Pointing out
             | Germany was too dependent on Russia for natural gas - good
             | point. Saying the US would drop out of NATO - not a good
             | strategy for stability. If you wanted to point out a Trump
             | comment that everyone saw as a mistake at the time (but
             | that doesn't add to the conversation), give the examples
             | where he made dangerous suggestions to treat covid. Talking
             | about nato seems fairly relevant.
             | 
             | Tons of people saw Germany was putting itself in a bad
             | position. Every US administration since the initial
             | direction was set said that.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | President Trump talked about dropping out of NATO
               | specifically because Germany (along with several other
               | European countries) had broken their treaty obligations
               | and had failed to spend the required 2% of GDP on
               | defense. They were essentially getting free protection
               | from the USA, France, and the UK without doing anything
               | in return. And the threat worked! Germany did
               | significantly boost defense spending (although still not
               | quite to the 2% target).
        
               | MagnumOpus wrote:
               | The 2% was and is not a treaty obligation.
        
               | google234123 wrote:
               | All NATO countries agreed in 2006 to 2%. It's an
               | indicator of a country's will to actually contribute to
               | NATO
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | All NATO members agreed to a 2% minimum with the context
               | of the existing treaty.
               | 
               | https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm
               | 
               | If Germany or any other country is unwilling to meet that
               | treaty obligation then they should simply withdraw from
               | the alliance rather than freeloading on more responsible
               | countries.
        
             | formerkrogemp wrote:
             | I don't think Trump is an authoritative source on
             | _anything._
        
           | golemiprague wrote:
        
         | mikeyouse wrote:
         | Enough for Obama to call them on it 4 years before that;
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...
         | 
         | And many US Government officials and their proxies have been
         | sounding the alarms for years;
         | 
         | https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/interview/senior-oba...
         | 
         | And Biden temporarily waived sanctions on the pipeline as a
         | bargaining chip to help prevent the invasion of Ukraine, they
         | were snapped back once Russia invaded;
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/if-russia-invades-uk...
         | 
         | Nobody in American politics thought it was a good idea, because
         | it clearly wasn't, but the allure of dirt-cheap energy was too
         | much to pass up.
        
         | durnygbur wrote:
         | ohh... these smug corrupted smirking faces. Now Ukrainians are
         | paying for your gas, you cunts. The Three Seas Initiative was
         | the way to go at that time, energy policy wise.
        
         | jsight wrote:
         | What policies was he referring to there? From what I recall, a
         | big part of the German focus at the time was the shift to
         | renewables, with the goal of reducing dependence on Russian gas
         | imports.
         | 
         | Were those the policies that he wanted them to end? Or was it
         | something else?
        
           | Krasnol wrote:
           | It was missing LNG imports to Germany.
        
         | leonroy wrote:
         | The video is literally Trump in 2018 calling out Germany on
         | their dependence on Russian gas whilst they smirk at him. His
         | words:
         | 
         | > "Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if
         | it does not immediately change course. Here in the Western
         | Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence
         | from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."
         | 
         | Even the Washington Post wrote about it at the time:
         | https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/09/25/trump-accuse...
        
           | rvz wrote:
           | Tells you how brainless the media was and were just after
           | headline clickbait despite Trump echoing the same warnings
           | that Obama said in 2014.
           | 
           | Now everyone can see how silly Germany is looking after not
           | listening to what both Obama and Trump already saw on their
           | dependency on Russian gas.
           | 
           | I guess Trump had the last laugh on that one.
        
           | knodi123 wrote:
           | > His words: > ... "independence from the encroachment of
           | expansionist foreign powers."
           | 
           | Well, maybe not "his" words. But they are definitely words
           | that came out of his mouth.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | sudden_dystopia wrote:
       | You can sugar coat this any way you want but the fact of the
       | matter is, they cut energy production in lieu of renewables
       | without actually having enough renewables up and running to
       | offset the difference. And now they are in the predicament of not
       | having enough energy because the gas taps have been turned down.
       | The path to hell is paved with good (but not well formulated)
       | intentions. Just wait until you see the environmental devastation
       | of a continent that turns to cutting down all the trees and
       | burning anything they can find to stay warm.
        
       | timmg wrote:
       | My biggest worry is that they are going to open NordStream 2 this
       | winter "just to fill the emergency gap" -- and then it never gets
       | closed.
       | 
       | I honestly don't know how likely that would be.
        
         | okr wrote:
         | Why is it a worry? That would reduce the cost of living
         | dramatically again.
        
         | google234123 wrote:
         | Honestly, they should open NordStream 2 now and at the same
         | time focus on getting the alternatives online ASAP.
        
           | dubbel wrote:
           | Opening NS2 doesn't make any sense from a German perspective.
           | NS1 is far from being at capacity, the only reason there
           | isn't more gas flowing from Russia to Germany (and
           | subsequently to for example Poland), is Russian state policy.
           | It would only weaken NATOs/EUs strance against the Russian
           | attack against Ukraine.
           | 
           | This isn't some supply and demand free market problem, it's
           | political policy on both sides.
        
         | Vespasian wrote:
         | It seems unlikely that Russia would send any meaningful amount
         | of gas anytime soon.
         | 
         | Nord Stream 1 is operating at 10% (with a bunch of nonsense
         | given as reasons) and while they wanted NS2 in the beginning,
         | they are now asking for the sanctions to be lifted (which again
         | doesn't make sense from a technical perspective).
         | 
         | So opening NS2 would do nothing but give Putin a political win
         | and maybe(!) a trickle of gas
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | The author ignores another important part: betting on Russia was
       | a bet on domestic security. Tying European countries together
       | through commercial interdependence had a demonstrated track
       | record of causing the longest period of peace in Europe in over a
       | millenium. Well, why shouldn't that work in the case of Russia as
       | well?
       | 
       | Well we all know why is didn't work in the case of Russia. As
       | this article well shows, Germany made a number of mistakes that
       | amounted to not hedging this bet.
       | 
       | But given the philosophies of Europe and the USA in the late
       | 90s-mid 2010s, this approach can't be called utterly foolish.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | And now EU is betting its future on the dictator of Azerbaijan
         | (who is known to bribe German and european politicians) for gas
         | and Saudi arabia for oil. Couldn't think of more iconic duo
         | 
         | https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-azerbaijan-gas-deal-i...
        
         | klausjensen wrote:
         | It sort of makes sense - until 2008 (invasion of Georgia). Or
         | at least 2014 (first invasion of Ukraine).
         | 
         | Top German politicians were/are tied closely to Russian
         | interests. Like former Bundeskanzler (chancellor) Gerhard
         | Schroder, who still to this day refuses to distance himself
         | from Putin/Russia. He was literally paid by Putin-controlled
         | entities to lobby Russian interests in Germany/Europe.
         | 
         | The amount of money that flowed from Russia to Germany in
         | corruption and sweet-heart deals is staggering - and I am sure
         | much more will be revealed in the coming years, of what really
         | went on behind the scenes.
        
         | _jal wrote:
         | Interdependence does tend to promote peace, but only up to a
         | point. Past that point it becomes a weapon, as anyone who has
         | been anywhere near a messy divorce has seen.
         | 
         | Imperialist Russians clearly knew this, but apparently only saw
         | the offensive angle. (At least, they either didn't see or
         | discounted the risks to their own exposure, or they would have
         | held reserves elsewhere.)
        
       | fkarg wrote:
       | Not was. Is.
        
       | UKR_anon wrote:
       | The FSB [0] is financing western NGOs and political parties to
       | fight against Nuclear Power and to promote energy policy and
       | solutions. [1] This Discussion is pointless without acknowledging
       | that fact. This is also just the tip of the Iceberg where the KGB
       | (Gazprom) was caught, it would be naive to believe that thats all
       | they did.
       | 
       | This influence imo explains ignorance of German politicians
       | regarding Energy Politics. We have to balance two goals here. 1.
       | Stay energy diversified for national security. 2. Reduce use of
       | fossil fuels to combat climate change.
       | 
       | The figures that are often presented of germanys high Renewable
       | electricity production are so misleading they could be straight
       | from a KGB office. If we really want to tackle point 1. and 2. We
       | can't just magically ignore heating, transportation, heavy
       | Industry and fertilisers. All these run on fossile fuels right
       | now. The Longterm goal has to be transition to EVs, Use synthetic
       | fuels for aviation, heat with heat exchangers (60% of new build
       | homes in germany are equipped with them). So just conveniently
       | ignoring these massive energy demands and talking about
       | sustainability is delusional.
       | 
       | With all these energy requirements it becomes pretty obvious that
       | germany can not produce all that energy with just Solar and Wind.
       | It can also not store enough of this energy for 82 millions
       | people for periods of low sun and low wind.
       | 
       | The best time to start building nuclear plants was 10 years ago,
       | the second best time is today. Fusion will not be on time here.
       | Sweden and Finland solved the end storage problem. Which is imo a
       | talking point purposefully propagated by foreign adverse
       | Intelligence Agencies. After all noone give a f** where and how
       | all the Highly toxic chemicals are stored. (The are stored in the
       | same way, deep down in Salt mines).
       | 
       | I think a cold and painful winter will be good for the german
       | people. I compare them to the Antiwaxxers for child vaccines.
       | They lived in such a good period of time and never saw a child
       | with chickenpox or measles, so they think its not an issue
       | anymore. You can talk to them and explain the danger they are in
       | as much as possible. They will laugh and scream at you. They have
       | to suffer for one winter to understand the importance of national
       | security and energy independence. Even right now, so close to the
       | disaster winter, many germans are ignorant and think they will
       | solve it with 20kg of burning wood.
       | 
       | The Winter is comming.
       | 
       | [0] further called KGB [1]
       | https://twitter.com/ziontree/status/1497998920739274757?s=20...
        
       | nickdothutton wrote:
       | We'll find out this winter.
        
       | daneel_w wrote:
       | How messed up was it that Trump warned about the exact current
       | situation years ago, and was promptly ignored? Didn't Obama, too?
        
         | ManuelKiessling wrote:
         | Yes, we absolutely fucked up here, there is no doubt. The
         | dependency wasn't a topic at all, neither in politics nor "on
         | the street". A cushy situation for decades lead to naivety, I
         | guess.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | It wasn't exactly a controversial take either. What was Biden
         | thinking by green-lighting NS2?
        
           | google234123 wrote:
           | Biden has done a lot of bad things just to do the opposite of
           | what ever trump was doing.
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | The problem is that Germany is taking everyone down with them
       | 
       | The countries that follow the EU wholesale energy price rules are
       | royally screwed, because the price of power is set by the
       | exorbitant price of gas even if they only use 5% gas in their
       | energy mix. In addition to carbon mandatory limits this leads to
       | soaring electricity prices which do not correspond to real supply
       | and demand, but religious adherence to inflexible regulations
       | that have not been changed despite the war. This is madness at
       | multi-state level
        
         | dagss wrote:
         | It is not also gas, also less hydropower available than usual
         | in Norway, Switzerland etc. due to unfortunate climate/weather
         | past year. There is genuine energy shortage not only an issue
         | of setting the right price.
        
       | smsm42 wrote:
       | They talk about dependency on Russia being a "mistake". But with
       | so many high-rank people (including former Chancellor) being paid
       | by Russia openly (and who knows how many secretly beyond that) -
       | does it look like a "mistake" or a deliberate policy on Russia's
       | side and widespread corruption being ignored on Germany's side?
        
         | okr wrote:
         | There is no proof of corruption. What do you know? Bring it to
         | the press.
        
           | durnygbur wrote:
           | There are no proofs. Those with proofs have suicide waiting
           | at their doorsteps.
        
           | smsm42 wrote:
           | I think the standard formula is "no evidence". Incidentally,
           | check out https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-
           | no-evidence...
           | 
           | But I think that the position of "until we have a court
           | decision proving corruption, one could not reasonably talk of
           | a possibility of corruption, and discuss appearance of
           | conflict of interest" is naive at best, and completely
           | boneheaded at the usual case. Corruption is notoriously hard
           | to prove, especially "soft" corruption where there's no
           | direct bribery but more like alignment of interests diverting
           | the interests of corrupt functionaries from serving the
           | people (who even knows that that means?) to serving their
           | private wallet and/or ideology (well, that one is much
           | clearer).
           | 
           | And there's tons of the press talking about German
           | politicians being too cozy with Russia, even pre-dating the
           | war. So what? It's not like German voters cared.
        
           | dreinhardt wrote:
           | That has already happened. Try looking for Schwesig and her
           | Klimastiftung, and that's just a tiny part of the picture.
        
       | belorn wrote:
       | _" As the numbers from the past 20 years show, renewables do not
       | require more volumes of gas (MWh) for the system to be balanced
       | (they may require more gas-fired capacity (MW), but that's not
       | the same thing - gas turbines are manufactured in Europe)."_
       | 
       | This is a fact noted, but it includes an additional aspect. If
       | there is a need for more gas-fired capacity, that burn less
       | volumes of gas, then that operation still need to be paid. The
       | way that works in Sweden is called reserve energy, which mean the
       | plant get paid twice. First they get paid through subsidies in
       | order to keep the plant operational and staffed, and then they
       | get paid a second time when the plant is burning gas and the spot
       | price is at the highest point. This is quite expensive.
       | 
       | Sadly I rarely see people actually account for this cost, and the
       | article does not.
        
         | guerby wrote:
         | Gas turbine are the cheapest electricity generator to build,
         | only expensive to operate due to fuel cost.
         | 
         | That's why people don't mention overbuilding gas2power
         | capacity.
         | 
         | Data from:
         | 
         | https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost...
        
       | throwaways85989 wrote:
       | The disaster is already preprogrammed. Lots of germans bought
       | electric heaters to heat flats through the winter, as the heat
       | provided by the house central heating will be reduced. Which will
       | result in large increases of base load on the network, which
       | already will be under strain.
       | 
       | Which means rolling black outs as soon as it gets cold. Perma-
       | black outs if the people do not see reasons and unplug their
       | heaters. No solution has been proposed for this. The clever ones
       | went for wood for heating.
       | 
       | Still preferable to shiver one winter through, then have it warm
       | in putins prison.
        
         | dreinhardt wrote:
         | People also bought toilet paper against covid.
        
         | RandomLensman wrote:
         | It is not clear at all that people will behave that way. The
         | buying of electric heaters for now just reflects huge
         | uncertainty about any sources of heat.
        
       | fdomig wrote:
       | Living in Germany I can add: Yes, shutting down nuclear power
       | plants "so early" was naive, however, even the now horrible war
       | in Ukraine boosts the process to migrate to (more) sustainable
       | energy even faster. Also, pretty soon energy prices in Germany
       | might be so much lower and this will be a key advantage.
        
         | uniqueuid wrote:
         | Also: The war in Ukraine shows what a security liability
         | nuclear plants are in wartime.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | Which, in what is surely a coincidence, is good for Russia.
        
             | MagnumOpus wrote:
             | ...with the Russian state-owned Rosatom being the biggest
             | (and cheapest) builder of nuclear plants abroad? Occam's
             | razor applies here, I think; no need for conspiracy
             | theories.
        
           | seydor wrote:
           | or gas pipelines
           | 
           | or food imports
           | 
           | can't go back to the age of empires, sorry
        
         | tmikaeld wrote:
         | As long as most of the wind-mill and solar components are
         | manufactured in China, it's difficult to call it "sustainable".
        
           | dubbel wrote:
           | You are right about solar panels being built in China, but
           | windmill components are usually built in local factories,
           | because they are very hard to transport.
           | 
           | You might call the dominance of the Chinese solar
           | manufacturers a national security risk, but as long as we
           | have the knowledge and resources to theoretically build them
           | in the West (albeit more expensively), they are easier to
           | replace than for example Saudi-Arabian oil or Russian natural
           | gas.
        
         | the_cramer wrote:
         | I am not sure if these lower costs are ever projected onto the
         | end users. the energy prices weren't lowered since ~2000
        
         | mbeex wrote:
         | > Also, pretty soon energy prices in Germany might be so much
         | lower
         | 
         | Jurgen Trittin (2004): Eine Kugel Eis... (costs for
         | "Energiewende" )
         | 
         | There is the infamous saying, "Fusion is always twenty years
         | ahead." But renewables seem to be trying hard to live up to
         | that saying (AND getting more expensive along the way)
         | 
         | https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/13020/umfrage...
        
       | [deleted]
        
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