[HN Gopher] The Controversial Plan to Unleash the Mississippi
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       The Controversial Plan to Unleash the Mississippi
        
       Author : samclemens
       Score  : 94 points
       Date   : 2022-08-13 14:22 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (hakaimagazine.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (hakaimagazine.com)
        
       | BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 wrote:
       | River deltas evolve in ways that have no regard for real estate
       | values.
       | 
       | Sediment builds up and constricts outflow until water finds
       | another way through.
       | 
       | Levees and channelisation redirect sediment.
        
         | brnt wrote:
         | > River deltas evolve in ways that have no regard for real
         | estate values.
         | 
         | Yes and no. See the Netherlands. You need to configure an
         | entire nation for it though, and I don't think any other
         | country can/is.
        
           | vidanay wrote:
           | And within 50 years or less with no maintenance, all of those
           | areas would be reclaimed.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | rapnie wrote:
           | In Netherlands we have a new problem now to fix. There's a
           | very efficient system of dikes, levies and pumps (large parts
           | of the country are below sea level) to get rid of the water
           | from the river Rhine and big rainfalls. But in recent years
           | drought has become a big issue, and now we have to
           | significantly alter this system so it is also able to retain
           | water when necessary.
           | 
           | This Wikipedia page has a map that shows how the country
           | would look like without dikes. Amsterdam for instance would
           | be fully flooded: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control
           | _in_the_Netherlan...
           | 
           | Referenced from this page is also the "Room for the River"
           | project where indefensible lands are given up, and many
           | places have been created where the river is allowed to flood
           | its banks, so it becomes more manageable elsewhere: https://e
           | n.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_for_the_River_(Netherland...
        
       | balentio wrote:
       | Man interferes with Natural Course of River via engineering.
       | Decides this was a bad idea. Solution? More engineering.
       | 
       | The West screws with water ways and goes dry. Solution? Screw
       | with the Mississippi to send water out there where they screwed
       | with water.
        
         | ziddoap wrote:
         | While the context is wildly different, this type of incremental
         | band-aid fixes of _< insert thing>_ always reminds me of the
         | 2004 movie The Butterfly Effect. The cycle of trying to fix
         | something, making it worse (or other unintended/bad side
         | effects appearing), try to fix the fix, repeat ad nauseum until
         | everything breaks. I know there's a million (probably better)
         | depictions of this pattern, but something about the bathtub
         | scene in that movie will forever haunt me.
        
           | buscoquadnary wrote:
           | You just described half the software development jobs I've
           | had.
        
           | njarboe wrote:
           | This is how life was evolved. How you exist. 4 billion years
           | of band-aid fixes, dead ends, cycle after cycle of living,
           | trying, reproducing and dying. Beautiful, amazing, tragic,
           | and full of terror. It's how the world works. Humans are just
           | part of it.
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | Someone gets seriously injured. Has surgery, lives! Years
           | later has complications. Needs more extensive treatment.
           | Lives! Years later later has even more complications, dies.
           | 
           | Is the moral of that story "never interfere" to you?
           | 
           | Nothing lasts forever. Maintenance is needed.
           | 
           | [edit to add timeline, per response comment]
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | > Someone gets seriously injured. Has surgery, lives! Later
             | has complications. Needs more extensive treatment. Lives!
             | Later later has even more complications, dies.
             | 
             | > Is the moral of that story "never interfere" to you?
             | 
             | That is the moral most doctors tend to take from it, yes.
             | 
             | You want to consider what you're gaining from the first
             | surgery. If you're 20 years old, steps two and three are
             | unlikely to occur (not in any way related to the initial
             | surgery), and you're gaining a lot. If you're 80 years old
             | and in poor health, you just described a way of making your
             | own life worse while pissing away most of your savings.
        
               | kelnos wrote:
               | There's a lot of middle ground, though.
               | 
               | If you're 45 years old, and that surgery extends and
               | improves your quality of life until you're 60 or 65, and
               | then you need more surgery to keep things going for
               | another 15-20 years, that's probably worth it, no?
               | 
               | Sure, there are plenty of cases where post-surgery life
               | may not be worth it (but then that's entirely in the eyes
               | of the beholder to decide), but that's not all there is.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | I intended to imply there were years in between those
               | incidents, apologies, I realize it wasn't clear.
        
             | ziddoap wrote:
             | I wasn't trying to state a moral.
             | 
             | Just reminded of an older movie with a similar theme as
             | parent comment, and thought I'd make a comment about it.
             | That alright?
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Someone finds a marginal place to live, very few people
             | live there. Improves the land somewhat. Later had
             | complications and needs more treatment to ensure it's safe
             | to live there. Dam breaks, a million people die.
             | 
             | Moral of the story, "Oops, this particular set of choices
             | was a terrible idea, maybe we don't do that again".
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | "By a waterway" isn't a marginal place to live,
               | historically. It comes with risk, but avoids a more
               | immediate "oh shit there's no water here" risk.
               | 
               | But more generally, this sort of "just don't be stupid"
               | mindset assumes a static world. How many places would we
               | be able to pick if we wanted to avoid any possibility of
               | hundred year disasters? Five-hundred-year disasters?
               | Thousand-year disasters? And when it comes to decisions
               | made hundreds of years ago, how would you unwind those so
               | simply? Just up and move millions of people from a major
               | city? Is that better than trying to mitigate risk?
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | > "By a waterway" isn't a marginal place to live,
               | historically.
               | 
               | Exactly; living by the water has always been the best
               | choice. The water doesn't even need to be drinkable.
               | 
               | GP's style of argument misses the important point that
               | avoiding injuries is _not a goal_. The tribe that settles
               | by the river and grows to a population of five million,
               | but experiences flood-related losses of a million people
               | once a decade or so, is better off than the tribe that
               | stays in the desert and grows to a population of fifty.
               | 
               |  _Over time, as the bottom of the channel gradually rose,
               | the river overflowed its banks. Dikes were built ever
               | higher to prevent flooding, and in some places the river
               | started to flow above the surrounding countryside. Today,
               | in a stretch of about 1,100 miles, the Yellow River moves
               | along 11 yards above the plain. But dikes do not control
               | silting, and floods continue to occur on an ever larger
               | scale. On more than 1,500 occasions during the [roughly
               | 2100-year] history of imperial China the Yellow River
               | burst its dikes, destroying farmland, killing villagers,
               | and earning its description as "China's sorrow"._
               | 
               | ( _The Early Chinese Empires: Qin and Han_ ,
               | https://www.amazon.com/dp/0674057341/ )
               | 
               | Saying you shouldn't live near the river because it
               | occasionally drowns everyone nearby is saying you
               | shouldn't own stocks because sometimes they go down. It's
               | an argument that is completely insane.
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | New Orleans isn't marginal, though. Without exaggeration,
               | that stretch of coastline is probably the most important
               | collection of ports in the western hemisphere.
        
         | csdvrx wrote:
         | > Man interferes with Natural Course of River via engineering.
         | Decides this was a bad idea. Solution? More engineering.
         | 
         | Wow, an ad hominem attack on engineering? That's a very special
         | take to have on a site calles HACKER news!
         | 
         | Would you prefer we'd suffer nature and never attempt anything?
         | That's not very hackish :)
         | 
         | Whether we like it or not, the Mississippi is sending a lot of
         | clearwater down the gulf of Mexico, water that is needed
         | elsewhere. The plan makes sense- and not just for the most
         | visible parts like the Hoover dam.
         | 
         | Nothing is without risk: the risk of doing nothing may be more
         | to your liking, but there will also be consequences, and some
         | people will suffer. Of course, by doing nothing you may try to
         | avoid personal blame - but it's akin to a trolley problem, and
         | inaction can be morally guilty if you believe in
         | utilitarianism.
         | 
         | IMHO the most important thing to do is to honestly study all
         | the alternatives (including inaction) then choosing the one
         | that makes the more sense - yes, even if it's action, and even
         | if there may be some prejudice against engineering, or a bad
         | precedent (that can and should be taken into account in the
         | honest study)
        
           | sakopov wrote:
           | > IMHO the most important thing to do is to honestly study
           | all the alternatives
           | 
           | Like not farming in deserts? It's ironic to me that
           | progressive states like California refuse to change their
           | incoherent farming practices that have obliterated their
           | water supply yet they're totally open to diverting rivers all
           | over the country outside of California. I think this is what
           | OP was eluding to. The water crisis doesn't need engineering.
           | It needs a change in mentality first and foremost.
        
             | balentio wrote:
             | If I had any gold doubloons, I'd give you one for this
             | answer.
        
             | MichaelCollins wrote:
             | These arid Californian climates are very good for
             | agriculture, that's why we need massive geoengineering
             | projects to redirect rivers thousands of miles away to make
             | it work.
             | 
             |  _*scratches head*_
        
         | deanCommie wrote:
         | I don't even know where to begin.
         | 
         | First, all of humanity has screwed with waterways for our
         | entire existence. The West, The East, The North, The South.
         | Hell, Beavers do it. But the earliest human civilization was
         | borne on rivers, and grew out of screwing with water ways. For
         | irrigation, for navigation.
         | 
         | Every major river in the world that hosts civilization has been
         | MASSIVELY screwed with for that civilization's survival -
         | consistency and predictability is important for us to not DIE,
         | never mind, thrive. That means managing seasonal flooding. That
         | means maintaining a navigatable depth for shipping. That means
         | (eventually, once we woke up) controlling waste flow and
         | filtration, etc.
         | 
         | The Mississippi supports tens of millions of people and tens of
         | billions of dollars of economic activity. OF COURSE, humanity
         | was going to make it reliable. There were externalities. Now
         | they're going to deal with those EXACTLY the same way as they
         | did before - yes - with more engineering.
         | 
         | "Man decides to cure disease with medicine. The medicine
         | doesn't work. Solution? More medicine! Lunacy!"
         | 
         | Well, yes, but DIFFERENT medicine. Just cuz they're both
         | medicine (engineering) doesn't mean that this medicine
         | (adjusting levee routing) is the same as this other medicine
         | (originally having built the levees in the first place.
        
         | roywiggins wrote:
         | The cost of throwing up our hands and allowing the Mississippi
         | to revert to its natural course would probably be in the
         | trillions of dollars.
        
           | at-fates-hands wrote:
           | Agree.
           | 
           | However, I remember being in Landscape Architecture in
           | college and one of my professors was from Colorado and took
           | every opportunity to go after the US Army Corps of Engineers
           | and repeatedly related their failures as a case study in what
           | not to do.
           | 
           | Ironically, a few later in 2005 (while I still in college)
           | Hurricane Katrina blew through all of the US ACOE flood
           | protections. Their plans failed catastrophically with levee
           | breaches in over 50 places.
           | 
           | So yeah, we shouldn't throw our hands up, but the US ACOE
           | doesn't have a great track record for making issues like this
           | better.
        
             | bilbo0s wrote:
             | _but the US ACOE doesn 't have a great track record for
             | making issues like this better_
             | 
             | Neither does anyone else.
             | 
             | When I survey the landscape for organizations with the
             | experience and equipment to solve water problems in the US,
             | ACOE is right at the top of the list. What organizations do
             | you feel are better suited to these tasks up and down the
             | Mississippi? Of out west in Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New
             | Mexico? Or down in Georgia-Florida? And so on.
             | 
             | These are all diverse and complex engineering challenges
             | that impact wide geographic areas. Failure is to be
             | expected. It's one of the maintenance conditions on
             | infrastructure.
        
           | Kon-Peki wrote:
           | The only truly viable solution is a managed transition over
           | the course of 50 years or more. We will fight that
           | inevitability for as long as possible, and God help us if the
           | ORCS fails.
        
         | adamsmith143 wrote:
         | The idea that manipulating river flow is the reason for the
         | current drought conditions is ridiculous.
        
       | mwexler wrote:
       | Thanks to OP for sharing. I'd not heard of this source before and
       | would never have found it on my own.
        
         | kiliantics wrote:
         | I think I first came across Hakai through a HN post. It's
         | pretty niche but, in my opinion, it's an example of the kind of
         | quality I wish more of our modern media had and what we should
         | really be demanding in our news outlets.
        
       | jwarden wrote:
       | Mark Twain wrote a lot about the Army Corps of Engineering's work
       | on the Mississippi, as well as many other wonderful facts about
       | this river and his experience as a steam boat pilot, in _Life on
       | the Mississippi_ , a uniquely informative and entertaining book.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | Geonode wrote:
       | Just moved to Baton Rouge. A few drops of rain and this whole
       | town starts to pool. Very interesting region.
        
         | cmpb wrote:
         | We do get a lot of rain and there are a lot of low areas. It
         | was mostly "bottomland" before the woods were cleared out. Back
         | in 2016, it basically rained for 15 straight days and flooded
         | huge portions of north and east Baton Rouge. The past couple of
         | weeks (start of August) have also been relatively wet, so
         | that's likely why you're seeing excess water right now.
        
           | Geonode wrote:
           | I love it, and I'm loving Baton Rouge.
        
         | excitom wrote:
         | It's interesting to venture close to the levee and note fresh
         | water springs bubbling up from the pressure of the river flow.
         | Then you realize you are standing below the surface of the
         | river, which is reinforced by seeing large ocean going ships
         | sail by above you.
        
       | smm11 wrote:
       | Buffalo Commons, man.
        
       | i_am_proteus wrote:
       | Anyone interested in a long read about the Corps' work directing
       | the flow of the Mississippi would do well to look at John
       | McPhee's "Atchafalaya:"
       | 
       | https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1987/02/23/atchafalaya
        
         | syntheticnature wrote:
         | Also a more-recent three-part blog series at Wunderground:
         | https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Americas-Achilles-Heel-Mis...
         | 
         | Edit: I recommend reading both.
        
           | i_am_proteus wrote:
           | Thanks for this. The photos really round out the story.
           | 
           | >The head of the Army Corps' flood fight efforts, Major
           | General Charles C. Noble, gave the order to open the Morganza
           | Floodway two days later to relieve pressure on the Low Sill
           | Structure. The governor of Louisiana telephoned and asked if
           | he had the authority to order that the Morganza Floodway not
           | be opened. General Noble told him no. When complaints arose
           | that he was not giving the promised five days' notice, he
           | replied that the river didn't give him five days' notice.
        
       | SamBam wrote:
       | That's really interesting. It had not occurred to me that hemming
       | a river in by building levees would lead to a net loss of land, I
       | would have naively guessed it was the other way round. But I can
       | see how the loss of silt to the ocean would cause that.
        
       | m-watson wrote:
       | There is a good book that goes into some of the history and
       | context around the river and how we got to this point.
       | 
       | Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It
       | Changed America
       | 
       | By: John M. Barry
        
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       (page generated 2022-08-16 23:01 UTC)