[HN Gopher] Hacker News Predictions
___________________________________________________________________
Hacker News Predictions
Author : mercurybee
Score : 184 points
Date : 2022-08-14 16:50 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (hnpredictions.github.io)
(TXT) w3m dump (hnpredictions.github.io)
| kqr wrote:
| My pet peeve: predictions not associated with probabilities or
| odds.
|
| It's impossible to verify or score accuracy without that. Nobody
| predicts anything at 100 % certainty (otherwise it wouldn't be a
| prediction, it would just be stating inevitable facts), so
| there's always an implicit level of confidence.
|
| It's just that when people don't say what it is, their
| predictions become meaningless to anyone but themselves.
|
| A prediction without a probability is also not open to critique,
| because the way we settle differences in beliefs about
| uncertainties is through betting against each other. But a bet
| requires odds to price it with.
| stonewareslord wrote:
| What do you mean? Adding odds defeats the purpose of the
| prediction since you can't confirm it to be true or not.
|
| If I predict with 99.99% odds something will happen and it
| doesn't, my prediction could still have been correct as that
| fits in the remaining .01%. Whereas if I predict something will
| or won't happen after some time, you can confirm if it did or
| didn't happen after that time.
| kqr wrote:
| All predictions come with uncertainty. That's what makes them
| predictions.
|
| Even if someone says "there will be an ice cream shortage in
| France in the summer of 2025" they don't mean they are 100 %
| certain of it. They mean they find it somewhat likely -- but
| exactly how likely? That's what they have to tell us, because
| we don't know.
|
| For an individual prediction, you can never tell whether it's
| true or not, because individual predictions always come with
| some level of uncertainty.
|
| What you can do, if you know at what confidence level it was
| made, is
|
| - Score individual predictions. One made at 99.9 % certainty
| that doesn't come true gets a heavy negative score, while if
| it would have been made at 60 % it gets penalised much less.
|
| - Verify the accuracy of a collection of predictions. If I
| predict five things at confidence levels of 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5
| 0.5 then I should get roughly 3--4 of them right. If I don't,
| my predictions aren't very accurate.
| melony wrote:
| We can go all bayesian about predictions but at the end of the
| day dropbox didn't build itself. At some point we need to act
| on it.
| kqr wrote:
| Right and it's specifically for action that we need to know
| the odds. To pick one set of actions in advance of an
| uncertain event we need to know three things:
|
| - The cost in case the event turns out bad,
|
| - The upside in case the event turns out good, and
|
| - The probability that the event turns out good.
|
| We can summarise the two first ones as "the payoff function
| of the event" and simplify the situation into requiring
| knowledge about the payoff and the probability.
|
| But without the probability we cannot take informed action.
|
| (Unless the payoff is structured such that the probability
| doesn't matter -- but then it's also not much of a difficult
| decision.)
| c3534l wrote:
| Predictions and probabilites seem unrelated, except in
| mathematical models which attempt to make "predictions" through
| probabalistic models. Perhaps you've spent so much time reading
| about machine learning that you've gotten the concepts
| confused. I would go so far as to say that a prediction that
| comes with a probability is not a true prediction, but an
| estimate masquarading as one.
| kqr wrote:
| Quite the opposite! A prediction is an estimation of the most
| likely outcome in a binary event.
|
| I mean, I get that just saying the above seems to confirm
| your "too much machine learning" hypothesis, but I guarantee
| you that's not the case. At my own peril, I'm too old
| fashioned to have read much about machine learning.
|
| What I can say is that when making strategic and tactical
| decisions that affect a lot of people, I have found it
| incredible to know things like "I am 85 % sure we will not
| make the next release in time" (an actionable prediction)
| compared to "there's no way we'll make the next release in
| time" (when in fact there's still a 15 % chance we will, if
| we take proper action now.)
| c3534l wrote:
| It most definitely is not. Confidence and predictions are
| orthogonal concepts outside of stats and ML. A gambler
| makes predictions, but may have no confidence in winning. A
| scientific model may produce predictions with no associatel
| claims of probability or even validity. It is perfectly
| grammatically and semantically correct to say that someone
| made a prediction that they themselves do not believe to be
| the most likely outcome.
| kqr wrote:
| Any gambler that makes a prediction without internally
| associating it with a probability is one that's most
| likely losing money. You simply cannot consistently make
| positive-EV bets without considering the probabilities of
| your predictions. (Heck, EV is the linear combination of
| probability and payoff.)
|
| A scientific model almost always includes a very specific
| kind of probability: the p value. The best scientific
| models are also validated externally and have the results
| of that experiment reported -- as probabilities: false
| positive and false negative rates are common concepts to
| discuss that.
|
| I completely agree that one can predict something that
| one does not believe to be the most likely outcome. But
| in order to even say that, you have to be implying that
| there is at least a partial order from "least likely" to
| "most likely" and that order is commonly referred to as
| probability.
|
| (Edit: oh, I see where you got the "most likely" from. By
| convention, in a binary prediction, the prediction itself
| is stated in terms of the most likely outcome, with a
| confidence between 50 % and 100 %. It is of course
| possible to state the other side of the event with a
| confidence level < 50 % -- it's just not the way these
| things are usually presented.)
| c3534l wrote:
| > Any gambler that makes a prediction without internally
| associating it with a probability is one that's most
| likely losing money.
|
| The very fact that this idea is expressible proves that
| you're combining two different ideas in your head. You're
| seeing the utility in making accurate predictions then,
| despite being perfectly capable of talking about
| predictions which aren't estimates, pretending that
| they're the same concept.
|
| I of course don't need to appeal to your own confused
| words, because we live in a world where dictionaries
| exist.
| kqr wrote:
| Sure, I feel like that's what I've been trying to say all
| along: you can make a prediction without saying at what
| confidence level, but it doesn't mean anything to anyone
| other than perhaps to yourself, because only you know how
| strongly you believe in it.
| naet wrote:
| Fun idea. Needs a sort by time, and a link to the context.
|
| "I predict this will turn into a debacle for Apple."
|
| What will? I pushed the button about 10 times and only saw one
| that was even partially understandable without context.
| tgv wrote:
| I predict Amazon's rank in the top500 is about to improve.
| -rbanffy (2010)
|
| That wasn't a bad one. It was at 100 in Fortune's 500 in 2010.
| However, as people have said, the context determines the quality
| of the prediction. If this was said in reply to "I'm going to buy
| all my DVDs from Amazon from now on," it wasn't such an
| interesting opinion.
|
| BTW: p=1191
| mgdlbp wrote:
| All "I predict" comments in chronological order, filtered so the
| very oldest from 2007 are visible:
| https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment...
|
| Also try, "in x years"
|
| Nothing too remarkable. [This
| thread](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111) envisions the
| rise of music streaming, but the prevailing attitude is that it'd
| enable p2p sharing and piracy, not forestall it (also see
| comments on the article itself).
| faizshah wrote:
| Small bug, it is attributing quoted replies to the quoting
| comment instead of to the source comment:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 and
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539
| mkl wrote:
| Another bug, it is attributing some quotes to either different
| users or changed usernames:
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 is attributed to
| ReidZB, but ReidZB doesn't appear anywhere in the discussion
| (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793) and it was
| actually said by rwiggins.
|
| It's a fun quote out of context: "I predict gravity will
| disappear in five minutes for thirty seconds".
| kdps wrote:
| I predict people on hn will use the the expression "I predict"
| much more often now.
| vkdelta wrote:
| I wish you linked original thread. It not obvious to see it on
| website.
| superchroma wrote:
| Yeah, without context, a lot of these don't make sense.
| valbaca wrote:
| It's explained in the "what is this?" link at the bottom:
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html
|
| SELECT * FROM bigquery-public-data.hacker_news.full WHERE text
| LIKE "%I predict%" on the Hacker News BigQuery dataset, plus
| some mild preparation.
| yjftsjthsd-h wrote:
| I think the point is that they want a link to each comment in
| its original context.
| valbaca wrote:
| ah, yeah, that seems like an easy feature to add.
| PebblesRox wrote:
| If you click the username, it links to the comment on HN.
| drewtato wrote:
| I predict that this feature will be added soon.
| teaearlgraycold wrote:
| > I predict Reddit will be the first challenger to finding web
| content.
|
| -kevando (2017)
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047
|
| Winner winner chicken dinner
| Macha wrote:
| Even in 2017, this was more stating the status quo than really
| predicting.
|
| Already plenty of comments throughout 2017 of people searching
| reddit for more "human" recommendations because of Google
| getting overrun with corporate spam.
|
| https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&...
|
| Arguably the difference between then and now is that
| astroturfing Reddit has become more profitable and hence more
| common as people adopt that mindset, so searching reddit is
| less valuable now than in 2017.
| hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
| Just a note about your sentence parsing. I got a "I predict
| Python 2." entry, where the sentence was "I predict Python 2.7
| will something something".
|
| Your sentence regex should look for a period followed by
| whitespace or end-of-input.
| clairity wrote:
| too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments
| so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking
| the next step and wondering whether the mean(s) of these
| predictions are fairly accurate. i'd suspect that with enough
| samples, the mean of any given prediction would be fairly
| accurate[0], but instead, it's lot of shallow criticism.
|
| for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that
| full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the
| state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to
| know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase
| i was.
|
| [0]: this is the central thesis of the book _wisdom of crowds_ ,
| and of the many prediction markets it spawned.
| CodeWriter23 wrote:
| I predict we will see a glut of attention-seeking posts on HN
| starting with the words "I predict".
| ZeroGravitas wrote:
| My guess is searching for "my guess is" would find similar
| predictions.
| wolfgang42 wrote:
| Relevant quote that I saved a while back:
|
| > The tendency to prognosticate without any real evidence will
| increase in the future. -- whatshisface (2019),
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417
| armchairhacker wrote:
| Feature requests:
|
| - Filter by "before year", so I can see predictions from earlier
| years which are more likely to be resolved. Most of the random
| results I got are in the 2020s.
|
| - Make the url contain a seed, so you can copy/paste the URL and
| get the same prediction (EDIT: my bad, looks like there is
| already a "share link" button)
| darkerside wrote:
| I like the idea of being able to vote on whether the position
| turned out to be correct. Would be cool to see it as a histogram
| over time, so you could see whether predictions started becoming
| more correct.
|
| Also, typical narcissistic me wants to see any predictions that I
| might have made.
|
| Very cool and fun project.
| tekbog wrote:
| "I predict smooth sailing from here on out." -lukasb (2017) [0]
|
| haha
|
| [0]https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135
| tedsanders wrote:
| In 2010, Daniel B. Markham asked a question to the users of
| HackerNews, "A New Decade. Any Predictions?":
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
|
| 189 comments were posted in the thread. Their predictions
| included:
|
| - Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial
| consumer goods
|
| - Ebooks defeating real books
|
| - Rampant piracy
|
| - Common electric cars
|
| - Driverless cars
|
| - China bubble will burst
|
| - Google will go downhill
|
| - Microsoft will become like IBM and have to sell off parts of
| the business
|
| - Smartphones & cloud computing will make PCs redundant for most
| people
|
| Of all these 9 predictions, I'd say first 8 were mostly false and
| the 9th was correct in spirit but still iffy in fact - Statista
| says that 3/4 of American adults own a computer.
|
| In general, there seems to be a severe bias toward change. Either
| people were very optimistic about the changes we'd see by 2020 or
| they were quite pessimistic about the present trends & companies,
| calling them bubbles or unsustainable. In both cases, a
| prediction of "trends will stay the same" would have been more
| accurate than a prediction of "things will change drastically
| off-trend".
|
| That said, it's a bit unfair to say that stasis/current trends
| continue is a better prediction, as it has the advantage of
| entropy. There is only one way for things to stay the same, but
| many ways for them to change. So even if things are likely to
| change, predicting stasis can still outperform any _specific_
| prediction of change, even if a prediction of _any_ change would
| be best.
|
| Here's what actually changed over the 2010s, as I see it.
|
| HARDWARE
|
| - Phones got way better and changed the face of modern human
| life.
|
| - 3D TVs fizzled.
|
| - VR has fizzled so far.
|
| - AR fizzled.
|
| - CPUs improved, but more slowly.
|
| - HDDs improved, but more slowly.
|
| - SSDs got cheap.
|
| - Displays got way cheaper.
|
| - Cars got better infotainment systems and other features, but
| never drove themselves.
|
| - Wireless power didn't happen.
|
| - Mesh networks didn't happen.
|
| - Ultra cheap RFID didn't happen.
|
| - Robots didn't happen.
|
| - Telerobots didn't happen.
|
| - Drone delivery didn't happen.
|
| - Flexible electronics didn't happen.
|
| - Nanotechnology didn't really happen.
|
| - Graphene didn't happen.
|
| - Ubiquitous computing didn't happen.
|
| - Non-silicon based solar didn't happen.
|
| - Silicon solar costs plummeted and installations went
| gangbusters.
|
| - Wearable electronics didn't happen, except for smart watches.
|
| - eReaders grew.
|
| - FPGAs never took off.
|
| - Chips are still mostly silicon.
|
| - The top CPU makers are still Intel and AMD.
|
| - The top GPU makers are still NVIDIA and AMD.
|
| - The top video game console makers are still Nintendo, Sony,
| Microsoft.
|
| - Home internet remained mostly cable, not fiber.
|
| - Computers remained x86, phones remained ARM.
|
| SOFTWARE
|
| - The dominant search engine is still Google.
|
| - The dominant computer operating systems are still Windows and
| Mac OS.
|
| - The dominant phone operating systems are still Android and iOS.
|
| - The top video streaming site is still YouTube.
|
| - The top map site is still Google Maps.
|
| - The dominant office software is still Microsoft Office.
|
| - The dominant social network is still Facebook.
|
| - The top online retailer is still Amazon.
|
| - The top cloud provider is still AWS.
|
| - Internet Explorer died, and Chrome grew in share.
|
| - Websites are lot better and slicker.
|
| - Phone apps got way, way better.
|
| - Cryptocurrencies didn't take off.
|
| - MMOs didn't take off.
|
| - Web anonymization didn't happen.
|
| - Web identity didn't happen.
|
| - Malware still exists.
|
| - Spam still exists.
|
| - Lag still exists.
|
| - Functional programming didn't take off.
|
| - Telepresence didn't take off.
|
| - Mass outsourcing of software jobs didn't happen.
|
| - Linux didn't take off.
|
| - Prediction markets didn't happen
|
| - Dynamic pricing didn't really happen.
|
| - Micropayments didn't really happen.
|
| - Most of what was growing in 2010 continued to grow, most of
| what was shrinking in 2010 continued to shrink.
|
| Some things changed, but most stayed on trend.
| maskil wrote:
| Cryptocurrencies didn't take off? Does Bitcoin reaching 60k
| from nothing not count as taking off?
| Geee wrote:
| To compare currencies, it's probably better to look at market
| capitalization and number of owners. The market cap is
| currently at $0.5T and there are about 100 million Bitcoin
| owners, which makes it a small currency (comparable to
| Swedish krona in terms of market cap), but it has certainly
| "took off".
| TillE wrote:
| It missed that thread by a few weeks, but I think it's
| fascinating how little the iPad (announced January 27, 2010)
| and other tablets have impacted our computing lives, despite a
| lot of excitement at the time.
|
| They still exist, they're nice, but instead of supplanting
| anything, they're mainly just tertiary devices owned by a
| relatively small number of people.
| [deleted]
| kuboble wrote:
| I would add one imo big change that happened between 2010 and
| 2020.
|
| - subscription model almost completely replaced one-time
| purchase model for software.
| mynameismon wrote:
| > _- Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very
| trivial consumer goods_
|
| Surely, surely this has to be among the predictions which came
| true, or largely so. Even toothbrushes have Wi-Fi!
| pamelafox wrote:
| I think functional programming has a larger presence in
| JavaScript/frontend now, given ES6 APIs like forEach/map and
| interfaces like higher-order components in React. I notice much
| more FP in modern frontend docs, like CodeMirror 6, Lit web
| elements. So, we're not all using Haskell, but its certainly
| benefited my programming to have a better understanding of FP
| concepts.
| the_only_law wrote:
| And this was the nail in the coffin for me. I've never seen so
| much delusion.
| [deleted]
| jedberg wrote:
| It would be cool to link back to the comment so I can see the
| context the prediction was made in.
| jason-phillips wrote:
| > It would be cool to link back to the comment
|
| Just click the commenter
| jedberg wrote:
| I think they just deployed that, because I don't think that
| worked an hour ago.
| lucb1e wrote:
| Correct: https://github.com/hnpredictions/hnpredictions.git
| hub.io/com...
|
| "added link to original post" committed ~1h before your
| reply
| julienreszka wrote:
| till OP fixes this you can search the comments here:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/
| BbzzbB wrote:
| Till GP finds the hidden and limited search API (I know it
| exists and I'm struggling to find it) he can search the
| comments here:
|
| https://hn.algolia.com
|
| Edit: I was thinking of news.ycombinator/from?site=X, but I
| realize I'm not even sure it can search comments.
| jedberg wrote:
| I know I could search them, but I'm way too lazy to
| copy/paste it somewhere else. Especially on a Sunday
| morning.
| mrweasel wrote:
| I predict it will be a feature in the next release.
| loceng wrote:
| I predict you're correct.
| vasili111 wrote:
| It will be good to be able to se the link to original post at HN.
| c3534l wrote:
| These are all really atrocious predictions, and the newest ones
| don't really seem any less stupid than those whose time has
| already come to pass. People also seem to have a weird inability
| to construct grammatically correct sentences that start with the
| phrase "I predict."
| closedloop129 wrote:
| It would be nice if users could mark predictions as true.
|
| I would love to see how the predictions trade on prediction
| markets like https://manifold.markets/. Could you automatically
| create an entry for every prediction?
| eterm wrote:
| If it's not a top level comment it ought to show the context of
| the parent comment.
| BbzzbB wrote:
| I guess it's just a little fun site, would've been nice however
| to have a voting system in random scrolling to provide some
| highlights (while keeping predictions unvotable in the ranking to
| avoid typical crowding).
|
| >I predict that the ready supply of instant gratification will be
| as or more harmful than fast food and the obesity epidemic.
|
| Yet to be widely acknowledged and acted on, but sure seems
| lsd5you was ahead of the curve on this in 2010.
| drewtato wrote:
| People have been worried about this since TV was invented.
| BbzzbB wrote:
| And we went from 30 minute TV shows on global/national/local
| channels to 30 seconds clips on finely tuned personal feeds
| with granular data from billions of users optimizing for
| watchtime.
|
| I know it's a fear as old as books, but it's hard to ignore
| the different paradigm that the Internet brought to the
| table.
| Amezarak wrote:
| It seems evident to me that they were right to worry so, the
| TV appears to have been a net negative.
| darkerside wrote:
| I like this feature idea
| danielunited wrote:
| This turned out correct: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149
|
| The rest I've seen are useless since they're from 2020 or further
| PebblesRox wrote:
| The whole thread is an interesting read. I'm not used to
| hearing people talk about bitcoins plural!
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708
| lucb1e wrote:
| saving people a click / posterity when this goes down
|
| > I predict we'll be hearing more and more about bitcoins over
| the next year or so as the process accelerates. --hugh3, 2010
| throwawaymaths wrote:
| Would be nice to include explicit predictions that don't start
| with "I predict" from the prediction threads.
| 0x_rs wrote:
| _I predict disappointment._ -untog (2012)
|
| I don't even need context. Always applicable.
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337
|
| EDIT: this is a fun one: _I predict lots of people will make
| predictions, but we 'll never go back to check and see if they
| were right._ -- the reckoning has come, tlrobinson!
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| >> I predict that every time the favicon changes, the consensus
| will be that the change is bad
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/
|
| Beautiful really:>
| SubiculumCode wrote:
| I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova
| and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
|
| -blazepower (2016)
| jostmey wrote:
| I remember mine. Pandemics and mass shootings targeting rich
| people. 1 for 2
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=2229115...
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| Technically, that did not really happen yet ( although I agree
| with that prediction as likely ). We had one instance of mass
| shooting in an affluent Chicago suburb, but there is no
| indication it was done to 'target rich people'.
|
| I am typing all this as I recall that I saw 'eat the rich' meme
| on Imgur the past few months semi-consitently ( to be fair
| though; Imgur has become oddly politicized as a platform ).
| ClassyJacket wrote:
| You're agreeing with them. They said they got 1 of 2 right -
| the pandemic
| A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote:
| Thank you for that. I think I need to slow down a little
| when reading.
| ClassyJacket wrote:
| I came across a quote from myself on the third refresh!!
|
| Any chance you could add links to the original comment? I'd like
| to see what I was talking about in 2017. From the quote:
|
| "I predict it's abandoned within the year"
|
| I was almost certainly talking about a Google product, but I
| can't remember what. I thought it was Stadia, but apparently that
| was announced the year after.
| posix86 wrote:
| you can? click on the quote author
| ClassyJacket wrote:
| ah thankyou
| yewenjie wrote:
| This is really cool but the links on the page are hard to tap on
| mobile.
| sacrosanct wrote:
| Some other fun phrases to look for on ageing HN comments:
|
| 'If I was president I would'
|
| 'You're not wrong, but'
|
| 'My point is that'
|
| 'The thing is'
|
| 'Google should'
|
| 'Basically what I'm saying is'
|
| 'The only caveat is'
|
| 'Buyer beware'
|
| 'Without sounding like'
|
| 'The truth is'
|
| 'In all honesty'
|
| 'As a matter of fact'
| euroderf wrote:
| The phrase "The fact of the matter is..." is only ever used
| dishonestly. If I had a talk show, any guest who used this
| phrase would immediately have his/her mic cut and out the door
| they go.
| app4soft wrote:
| > _I predict the predictions will remain very dire until December
| 2020._
|
| _-RickJWagner (2020)_ [0,1]
|
| [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233
|
| [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436
| app4soft wrote:
| > _I predict youll learn that lesson soon._
|
| _-tempsy (2019)_ [0,1]
|
| [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231
|
| [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942
| judge2020 wrote:
| > We still don't know when it will be safe for freelancers and
| small companies to drop IE 7 and other dinosaurs. But I predict
| that day will come much sooner thanks to Google.
|
| - -jarrett (2011)[0,1]
|
| 0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741
|
| 1: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189
| dcow wrote:
| If the prediction sentence contains a url, the sentence ends at
| the first `.` in the url. For example:
|
| > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent
| aerial surveillance systems like http://www.
|
| The full sentence from HN is:
|
| > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent
| aerial surveillance systems like
| http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS for many
| reasons, this being one.
| pvaldes wrote:
| I augur that the query will be expanded soon with a list of
| synonyms. I bet would probably add more interesting results
| Kuinox wrote:
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550
|
| > I predict that touch interfaces in cars like this is a fad that
| will pass and people will look back on it as an embarrassment
|
| Hilarous.
| pmontra wrote:
| For the driver a touchscreens is dangerous. For passengers or
| for configuration is OK.
|
| I got the radio controls on my steering wheel. I would be dead
| or I won't be using the radio if they were on a touchscreen.
| Closing a phone call is on the touchscreen and I'd like to be
| able to do it from the steering wheel. The less the eyes leave
| the road the better.
| karaterobot wrote:
| I dunno, it seems like the tide is turning a bit. Mazda and BMW
| both say they're going to cool it with touch screens, and I
| assume others have too. This might be related to the chip
| shortage, but then again I've seen a bunch of articles about
| how much people hate this technology in cars. The original
| prediction doesn't include a timeline, I note. Maybe this is
| wishful thinking on my part?
| chmod775 wrote:
| Needs some work because it doesn't seem to extract the whole
| sentence.
|
| Original: "The place where I predict we'll disagree is whether to
| evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
|
| What was shown: "I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate
| the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
|
| Which is gibberish if you omit the beginning.
|
| Original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241
| deificx wrote:
| "I predict the 2020s will be strikingly similar to the 2010s."
|
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346
|
| I guess it's hard to predict, especially about the future.
| fezfight wrote:
| With such a vague statement, you could easily swing it either
| way. To me, it looks basically identical. What's different for
| you?
| deificx wrote:
| The obvious one to me was how COVID came in 2020 and put the
| world into quarantine making and actual change in how people
| work remotely. The technology was there in the 2010s, but
| something external changed our usage. Of course, it looks
| like it is trending backwards again with companies forcing
| workers back to the office, at least partially.
|
| Politics across the globe seems more insane than ever. Maybe
| I wasn't paying attention 10 years ago.
| fezfight wrote:
| Or maybe I'm not paying enough attention to right now. Good
| points though, thanks.
| pmontra wrote:
| Maybe you were not paying attention but it doesn't matter:
| the world did change a lot with Covid and especially with
| the war in Ukraine, at least in Europe. It's definitely
| different than up to early 2020.
| joshka wrote:
| Appropriate: I predict that this HN thread will
| lead hundreds of folks to tell stories of confirmation bias.
|
| -themodelplumber (2018) https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=620
| drewtato wrote:
| > I predict that within 2 years the iPhone OS will allow you to
| run unapproved apps provided you click through enough, "Hey,
| we're warning you! Don't come crying to us when you manage to
| blow up your dock connector", messages.
|
| -DannoHung (2010)
|
| I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
|
| > I predict within 2 years no one will even hear about an Nvidia
| GPU in an Intel-based laptop (unless we're talking $2000+
| machines - maybe).
|
| -higherpurpose (2015)
|
| (this is probably about AMD CPUs?) Looks like it's going to be
| wrong for many more years.
|
| > I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna
| die.
|
| -the-dude (2020)
|
| I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
|
| footnote: sorry for adding dupes to your data
| drewtato wrote:
| Found another one:
|
| > I predict we will still be using SMS in 10 years.
|
| -malandrew (2012)
|
| Yep. But mostly in the US when cross-OS or automated.
| klyrs wrote:
| >> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna
| die.
|
| > -the-dude (2020)
|
| > I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
|
| I'd call that one half-right. The sun is almost certainly
| devoid of all gas-phase H2O. Well, maybe a quarter-right,
| because it didn't "run out" of something it didn't have.
| Traubenfuchs wrote:
| > I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
|
| Yeah? I thought this exists:
|
| https://sideloadly.io/
| Kelteseth wrote:
| > I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
|
| How long is the transition phase for Apple until EU users will
| be allowed to install any software on iOS?
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704
|
| Edit:
|
| > After being signed by the President of the European
| Parliament and the President of the Council, it will be
| published in the Official Journal of the European Union and
| will start to apply six months later.
| colechristensen wrote:
| > I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna
| die.
|
| To be fair, all of us are indeed going to live a normalish
| distribution of lifespans and the sun is too.
| tehlike wrote:
| With dma, apple allowing unapproved apps will probably come
| true.
| tim-- wrote:
| > every app available for the MacLet (iPad/tablet) will be
| officially available for the MacBook
|
| It appears this has come to pass.
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3625
| jenscow wrote:
| I predict the preparation script for hnpredictions will soon have
| an exclusion for this topic.
| avian wrote:
| > No Investment Advice
|
| Anyone else surprised by the caliber of the legal disclaimer on
| the site? I can't decide if that's part of the joke or if this is
| a serious result of the author consulting a lawyer and coming up
| with this. Maybe I should be more concerned that someone might
| take some random sentence I wrote out of context and use it as
| investment advice*
|
| * This comment is not an investment advice
| SubiculumCode wrote:
| that should be my tag to every post.
| bilekas wrote:
| > This site uses "smartest" and "most pedantic" interchangeably.
|
| Couldn't have it any other way for HN!
| skywal_l wrote:
| "I predict it is doomed, and before long even you will abandon
| it. "
|
| Talking about HN to jacquesm.
|
| I laughed.
| sainib wrote:
| Good but needs more work. you need to contextualize using the
| original response and original post. I can see the value of this
| though. On similar lines, you could probably organize all
| software / product / business ideas people mention in comments
| also. Good luck.
| nkozyra wrote:
| Yeah, simply finding "I predict" leads to a lot of non-
| predictions, as it's often used as a colloquial substitute for
| "I believe" or "I anticipate."
| [deleted]
| tinco wrote:
| What the heck petercooper, first link I got on this site:
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 and he predicts an oil
| crash in the next year which then happens spectacularly. I hope
| he put some money on that and not just some HN karma.
| joshka wrote:
| Feature request - one click copy of the quote, attribution and
| link?
|
| E.g.: I predict blah -- foobar in 2022
|
| (https://news.ycombinator.com/... via
| https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=xxx)
| lucb1e wrote:
| Would be nice to be able to select by things like year
| (predictions made in 2022 are not so interesting yet).
|
| Found this one from 2007: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849
| "I predict because all major businesses will be interacting
| through Facebook, a new form of currency will begin to emerge."
| --jimream. Sounds like a popular prediction at the time, given
| wechat. Although, were wechat payments a thing then already?
| bozhark wrote:
| I predict the US will switch to the metric system and the entire
| world will switch to a 13 month calendar, in 100 years.
| SalimoS wrote:
| Im really having hard time reading the prediction
|
| (By the way is there a way to block any custom font/use the
| system default in safari for iOS)
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