[HN Gopher] Machine learning finds an improved way to match dono...
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       Machine learning finds an improved way to match donor organs with
       patients
        
       Author : abrax3141
       Score  : 50 points
       Date   : 2022-08-07 15:01 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ccaim.cam.ac.uk)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ccaim.cam.ac.uk)
        
       | t_mann wrote:
       | needs a [2020] tag. Mihaela van der Schaar's research group is
       | highly productive, I'd be surprised if they hadn't published some
       | update to that methodology by now
        
       | carvking wrote:
       | In leu of current events - the first thing that crossed my mind
       | is what the CCP will do with this technology.
       | 
       | But it's good to see more real world application of machine
       | learning - feels like the distance from research to application
       | is very slow.
       | 
       | "Machine learning radiology" is something I used to monitor as a
       | sign of improvement - since it's a "simple" use case. Too "busy"
       | to google about now - any news on this ?
        
         | VHRanger wrote:
         | It's just a more efficient way to do a form of graph
         | matching[1] on a dynamic graph (one that evolves over time).
         | 
         | There wasn't really a pure closed form mathematic solution to
         | the problem like we can on static graphs (Gale-Shapely
         | algorithm for one). You find papers like this one [2] with
         | heavy math and some sort of proposed solution.
         | 
         | So this type of problem is a really a good fit for machine
         | learning to propose solutions.
         | 
         | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graph_matching 2.
         | https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Thickness-and-Informat...
        
         | carvking wrote:
         | For more context:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Go...
        
       | lr1970 wrote:
       | As someone doing ML for a living this development scares me.
       | Trying policy to de-bias dataset against prior policy (which is
       | changing with time by the way) is very difficult. And any new
       | policy will effect the outcomes and new datasets going forward.
       | Positive feedback loops in Reinforcement Learning is a huge
       | problem.
        
         | jjcon wrote:
         | If it can give better outcomes wouldn't it be more unethical
         | not to use it? We should certainly be aware of feedback loops
         | but we can't let perfection be the enemy of good
        
       | trident5000 wrote:
       | "Sorry, our internal black box system determined you are not a
       | candidate at this time. Please try again later."
       | 
       | Aside from reinforcement loops being an issue, ML is only as good
       | as the programmer makes it. And we will have no idea how it was
       | constructed and neither will non-tech health professionals.
       | Theres no way a system like this can be described in its entirety
       | without mistake to surgeons when one line of code changes
       | everything.
       | 
       | So maybe it can help out human decision but I would not want this
       | to have final say for quite some time.
        
         | abrax3141 wrote:
         | The FDA is trying hard to figure out how to validate ML:
         | https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-device-...
        
       | echelon wrote:
       | We could revolutionize not only organ transplants, but all of
       | human health though advances in human cloning.
       | 
       | The biggest increase to human health span will be when we start
       | replacing our bodies wholesale as they age.
       | 
       | Head transplants onto monoclonal, HLA-non-expressing (antigen
       | free) bodies at age 50 will renew cardiovascular, pulmonary, and
       | immune health (eg new thymuses). It resets almost all of the
       | genetic cancer clocks in our bodies. Coupled with drugs to combat
       | brain tissue waste aggregation and plaque formation, it could see
       | humans through to multiple hundred years life spans.
       | 
       | As for ethics, the monoclonal bodies will be grown in a lab,
       | without brains, born out of chimeric pig uteruses and
       | artificially innervated for endocrine regulation.
       | 
       | I talk about this a lot in my HN post history.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26673243
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28534681
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30622820
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30407908
        
         | abrax3141 wrote:
         | But why?
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | To not die at 80.
           | 
           | Do be young as long as you live.
           | 
           | To cure people of cancer, heart, lung, liver, kidney, and
           | other diseases. Intractable diseases.
           | 
           | Once it becomes normalized, you'll even see people swapping
           | their bodies for ones they prefer. Gender. Increased height,
           | musculature, or VO2max. Transgenic craziness.
           | 
           | Why not?
           | 
           | Why accept what we have now?
        
             | abrax3141 wrote:
             | Why not: Permitting our children to breathe and eat, maybe?
             | You had your 80 years. Get out of the way.
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | You're free to do you.
               | 
               | If you haven't checked, we're below replacement rate in
               | the West. Apparently most don't find kids to be a
               | priority either.
               | 
               | I'm going to spend every effort to maximize my one in
               | infinity chance of experiencing the cosmos. Because after
               | this, there's nothing.
               | 
               | Make it long enough, and we might get to see it through
               | to the end. An extreme long shot that demands a near
               | perfect play through. But hey, what else is there to
               | pursue?
               | 
               | Making widgets and drinking whiskey while growing old?
               | Everyone else seems to be exploring these well traveled
               | paths. I'm not content to hope it ends there.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | By what possible moral judgment would you be entitled to the
         | body or organs of a clone of yourself, any more than the clone
         | would be to you?
         | 
         | I do believe that growing clone organs individually, if it
         | turns out to be possible, would be a solution. But otherwise,
         | slaughtering a living human to save another is never going to
         | be acceptable.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | > slaughtering a living human
           | 
           | A human body grown without a head or brain?
           | 
           | That's the moral equivalent of a houseplant or a pile of
           | lumber.
           | 
           | Nobody cries over HeLa cells dying millions of times over. Or
           | any other cell line.
           | 
           | This is far more moral than killing lab rats. And it could
           | end most diseases forever.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | Your said cloning, which is a technology we have today, but
             | which implies growing a fully functioning human being.
             | 
             | It may be possible in the future to grow parts of human
             | bodies without the conscious bits, but we definitely don't
             | know how to do it today beyond style very simplistic
             | tissues.
             | 
             | It's also important to note that there is no reason to
             | believe that it is possible to grow a human body without a
             | head or brain. It may be, but it may well not.
             | 
             | Also, the brain and head age like the rest of the body, and
             | a full body transplant would be just about the most extreme
             | kind of surgery you could undorgo. I see no reason to
             | believe that such extreme surgery would succeed in
             | prolonging life, except in the most dire of circumstances
             | (imminent vascular failure, terminal metastasized cancers
             | that happen not to affect the brain). In most cases, for
             | relatively healthy aging humans, it would certainly be a
             | significant reduction in lifespan with anything similar to
             | today's medical technology, even if you had a young healthy
             | donor body.
        
           | drc500free wrote:
           | What about growing three or four organs at a time that
           | mutually depend on each other?
        
       | zzbn00 wrote:
       | Around 90% of liver disease deaths is from preventable risk
       | factors (alcohol, viral hepatitis and obesity,
       | https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2014/09/29/liver-disease-a-prevent...
       | ). We have the tools to fix to these (the main being more even
       | distribution of resources in society) yet we don't.
        
         | ryan93 wrote:
         | How would giving people more money decrease obesity and
         | alcoholism? The richer our country has gotten the fatter it has
         | gotten!
        
           | fredoliveira wrote:
           | I'm sure that if you think about it, you'll realize it is not
           | the very wealthy that are getting more obese or drinking more
           | alcohol.
        
             | ryan93 wrote:
             | Because that's who they are. The lottery doesn't change
             | your character it reveals.
        
               | monocasa wrote:
               | Or perhaps it's not really a character thing at all, as
               | the cheapest foods these days are high-calorie and
               | engineered not to satiate.
        
               | tyingq wrote:
               | A fair amount of the lottery is family wealth at birth.
               | And while it's just opinion, I believe that alcoholism
               | has more to do with circumstance than character. There's
               | certainly more access to treatment if you're wealthy too.
        
             | conviencefee999 wrote:
             | Not really, when Black Americans and other minority groups
             | that grew up in poverty rise up in economic status they
             | actually get fatter. Not sure where the statistic on it is
             | but it was a really interesting find.
        
               | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
               | There are more calories in cheap foods. This has gotten
               | worse with processing, but from where I can see, no
               | obvious solution exists.
        
               | zzbn00 wrote:
               | "Poverty and childhood obesity: a 21st century role
               | reversal" : https://foodactive.org.uk/poverty-and-
               | childhood-obesity-a-21...
        
       | cuteboy19 wrote:
       | Seems like a difficult problem. Do you let 15 people have a
       | subpar match or give 14 a perfect match and 1 person dies.
        
       | dmckeon wrote:
       | Improvements in organ donation/procurement networks in the USA
       | are needed. "In 2020, 21.3 percent of procured kidneys were not
       | transplanted," per
       | https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/08/03/transplant-...
       | and https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajt.16982 We
       | should not let an unknowable and unachievable "perfect" be the
       | enemy of better.
        
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       (page generated 2022-08-07 23:01 UTC)