[HN Gopher] Implications of Climate Change [pdf]
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Implications of Climate Change [pdf]
Author : undert0wn
Score : 8 points
Date : 2022-08-04 16:25 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com)
| undert0wn wrote:
| A study by the US Military that provides analysis of the effects
| of climate change and potential consequences of said effects.
| digdugdirk wrote:
| Interesting maxims in the conclusion:
|
| "Three maxims can help us avoid dangerous failures of
| recognition, and speed learning when unexpected things happen.
|
| 1. Everything we believe about the world is provisional -
| "serving for the time being." Adding the words "so far" to
| assertions about reality reminds us of this.
|
| 2. Unjustified certainty is very costly. The greater your
| certainty that you are right when you are wrong, the longer it
| will take you to recognize and incorporate new data into your
| system of belief, and to change your mind. (...)
|
| 3. Pay special attention to data that is unlikely in light of
| your current beliefs; it has much more information per unit, all
| else equal. In this sense, information content is measured as the
| potential to change how you think about the world. Information
| that is probable in light of your beliefs will have minimal
| effects on your understanding. Improbable information, if
| incorporated, will change it.
|
| It is doubtless correct that many awful things that have not
| happened before will yet happen. Foresight regarding such events
| would be nice. It would be nicer still if we could recognize more
| quickly what is happening right in front of us. That is the right
| starting point for thinking strategically about the warming
| climate."
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(page generated 2022-08-04 23:02 UTC)