[HN Gopher] CZ5B (Chinese rocket) Reentry Prediction
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       CZ5B (Chinese rocket) Reentry Prediction
        
       Author : Kaibeezy
       Score  : 82 points
       Date   : 2022-07-30 12:46 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (aerospace.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (aerospace.org)
        
       | throwaway4good wrote:
       | It appears to have landed somewhere in the Indian ocean.
        
         | r721 wrote:
         | US: "113E 3N"
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1553438866203443207
         | 
         | China: "119.0E 9.1N"
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1553444872237027329
        
       | publicola1990 wrote:
       | There seems a video going the rounds on twitter of its trails
       | over the night sky somewhere in Malaysia[1].
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1553425522369118208?cxt=HHw...
        
         | r721 wrote:
         | Thread: https://twitter.com/DELTA_V/status/1553426891285139457
        
       | r721 wrote:
       | Their twitter account to watch for updates:
       | https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp
        
       | pid_0 wrote:
        
       | JayGuerette wrote:
       | 1. Disguise payload as space junk 2. Design to "fall" on
       | populated area 3. Say "oops" 4. ...
        
         | ethbr0 wrote:
         | What payload would possibly be worth this, that wouldn't be
         | more effectively served by a different delivery mechanism?
        
           | matthewaveryusa wrote:
           | a plausibly deniable payload purpose
        
             | JustSomeNobody wrote:
             | I don't think China cares. At all.
        
               | Nextgrid wrote:
               | But in this case there are plenty of other, better
               | delivery mechanisms than disguising the payload as space
               | junk.
        
             | MichaelCollins wrote:
             | Any 'useful' payload would erase any plausible deniability.
             | If the idea is to merely drop a piece of scrap metal on
             | some politicians house or something, with no warhead
             | involved, I don't think they can do that. Reentry is too
             | chaotic for a piece of unguided rocket debris to hit a
             | target that exactly.
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | How is "Chinese space junk falls on important target"
             | plausibly deniable? Especially compared to alternatives
             | that conceal source?
             | 
             | It sounds good, but I'm struggling to think of a use case
             | for (1) an important enough target to be impactful, (2)
             | that could be effected by space debris, (3) for which
             | there's a distinction between "we accidentally hit it" vs
             | "we deliberately hit it"
        
         | raverbashing wrote:
         | You're forgetting about what happens when something "falls"
         | from the atmosphere uncontrolled
        
           | iNate2000 wrote:
           | But what if it only _appears_ uncontrolled?
        
             | raverbashing wrote:
             | People who know how to track this stuff knows if it's
             | uncontrolled or not
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | Make it land on a valuable target and not make it looks
         | suspicious?
        
       | TedDoesntTalk wrote:
       | I still remember when Skylab fell to Earth in 1979. I was 9.
       | People on TV who found items (and others who claimed they did by
       | manufacturing junk with aluminum foil). It was inspirational. We
       | looked to the sky at the right time to see what we could see. I
       | wish I could share that with my kid, but he's away this weekend.
        
       | seventytwo wrote:
       | Am I reading this correctly that this is gonna fall over lots of
       | populated areas?
        
         | tgv wrote:
         | If I interpret it properly, most of the path is over the ocean.
         | Debris might still hit Indonesia though.
        
         | MichaelCollins wrote:
         | China is known for dropping rocket boosters on their own towns
         | fairly regularly. For instance:
         | https://twitter.com/ChinaSpaceNews/status/637174369677123584
         | 
         | With China situated where it is, this sort of thing is hard for
         | them to avoid. Probably they want to eventually switch to fully
         | reusable rockets, but that's a touch nut to crack.
        
           | ARandomerDude wrote:
           | > With China situated where it is, this sort of thing is hard
           | for them to avoid.
           | 
           | Sea launch or contract launch sites are good ways to avoid
           | it.
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | Maybe I'm missing something, but China has an enormous east-
           | facing coastline. Why not launch from Hainan over the
           | Pacific? It's basically Florida but better-situated.
        
             | Jabbles wrote:
             | You'd have to build the rocket on the island, or transport
             | the rocket to the island for launch. Neither is impossible,
             | but it's a lot easier to build and launch from the
             | mainland.
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | I mean sure, you could use the southern tip of Guangdong
               | instead. I just don't see a technical advantage* to
               | launching inland.
               | 
               | * of course I see a military advantage where foreign
               | countries can't recover your technology on failed
               | launches...
        
             | tjpnz wrote:
             | If they launched from Hainan there would also be benefits
             | in terms of Earth's higher rotational speed. Some of the
             | weight saved on fuel could go towards additional payload
             | capacity.
        
           | dudeinjapan wrote:
        
         | mlindner wrote:
         | The curve shown is the entire uncertainty bar on the location.
         | It's +/- 1 hour of the center.
        
       | tgv wrote:
       | That's a pretty sad state of affairs. For what, prestige?
        
         | FooBarWidget wrote:
         | Necessity.
         | 
         | China is banned from international space cooperation. They
         | _have_ to master space technology themselves because they can
         | 't rely on others. In order to do that, risks must be taken and
         | sacrifices are necessary.
         | 
         | On a broader level, the Chinese think they made a mistake in
         | not investing in science and technology for so long (read: the
         | past couple hundred years). They see lack of science and
         | technology as one of the main reasons why the were so miserable
         | the past 150 years (minus the past 40 years or so). So they're
         | not going to make that mistake again.
         | 
         | It's perhaps the "sacrifices are necessary" point that western
         | commentators most disagree with. After all it goes against the
         | idea of individual freedom. But China is very much a country
         | that prioritizes collective interests over individual
         | interests. This isn't even a weird thing on the world stage:
         | most Asian countries have a similar mindset.
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | This is wrong on numerous points.
           | 
           | > China is banned from international space cooperation.
           | 
           | Firstly, China is not banned from international space
           | cooperation. They have worked with several other agencies
           | including ESA and Roscosmos. The only ban that exists is the
           | US restricting China from working with it because of a
           | history of their seizing and stealing of US civil space
           | technology for military purposes.
           | 
           | > In order to do that, risks must be taken and sacrifices are
           | necessary.
           | 
           | You can take risks and sacrifices without endangering the
           | general public of your own country and especially without
           | endangering the public of the world. China has the technology
           | to de-orbit vehicles, they just refuse to implement it on
           | some vehicles.
           | 
           | > They see lack of science and technology as one of the main
           | reasons why the were so miserable the past 150 years (minus
           | the past 40 years or so).
           | 
           | This is the myth of "chinese national humiliation" that is a
           | common talking point of Chinese nationalists and is used to
           | foment nationalist sentiment. Repeating it doesn't make it
           | real.
           | 
           | > But China is very much a country that prioritizes
           | collective interests over individual interests.
           | 
           | You can do that (with criticism) and endanger the population
           | of your own country but you can't at all do that
           | internationally. That's a ridiculous claim.
           | 
           | > This isn't even a weird thing on the world stage: most
           | Asian countries have a similar mindset.
           | 
           | This is again completely false. Japan values the life of an
           | individual at even higher levels than we do in the US. It's
           | not an Asian sentiment. It's a Chinese Communist Party
           | sentiment. (BTW this technique of expanding their own values
           | to all of Asia is something that Imperial Japan did heavily
           | in the decades lead up to WW2. Let's hope China doesn't head
           | along a similiar route.
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_East_Asia_Co-
           | Prosperit...)
        
             | FooBarWidget wrote:
             | > This is the myth of "chinese national humiliation" that
             | is a common talking point of Chinese nationalists and is
             | used to foment nationalist sentiment. Repeating it doesn't
             | make it real.
             | 
             | The idea has existed way before the CCP was formed. See the
             | May 4th movement. Just because you don't want to
             | acknowledge it doesn't mean it's fake.
             | 
             | Calling someone a "nationalist" just because you don't like
             | the point, neither automatically makes that person a
             | nationalist, nor does it invalidate the point.
             | 
             | It's also interesting how people say "never forget" w.r.t.
             | WW2 atrocities, but when it comes to atrocities done
             | against China it quickly becomes "get over it".
             | 
             | > you can't at all do that internationally.
             | 
             | Not disagreeing with you. But please tell me why Starlink
             | has uncontrolled reentry, and why there's not a similar
             | amount of outrage against that.
             | https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1551434933285052416
             | 
             | > Japan values the life of an individual at even higher
             | levels than we do in the US.
             | 
             | You mean Japanese aren't known to do things that they don't
             | like at an individual level, but still do because they feel
             | compelled to for the benefit of the group? What do you
             | think the phenomenon of not being able to turn down a boss
             | invitation to group drinking exactly is? Why do you think
             | Japanese has fewer problems with masks?
             | 
             | > BTW this technique of expanding their own values to all
             | of Asia
             | 
             | Woah, now where does _this_ accusation come from? Do you
             | have any sources backing up your claim that this is what
             | they 're doing?
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | > It's also interesting how people say "never forget"
               | w.r.t. WW2 atrocities, but when it comes to atrocities
               | done against China it quickly becomes "get over it".
               | 
               | I don't say that personally, but you're completely
               | misinterpreting the meaning of that. It's about making
               | sure that any one (any country) doesn't repeat the
               | atrocities done by specific countries in WW2. China's
               | version of never forget is about a twisted sense of
               | revenge about what was done to it, not about messaging to
               | its own people to never repeat the things that were done
               | to it. (In fact many in China seems to take the opinion
               | that if something was done to China then it's okay for
               | China to do it to others, which is completely opposite of
               | the messaging you're comparing it to.)
               | 
               | > But please tell me why Starlink has uncontrolled
               | reentry, and why there's not a similar amount of outrage
               | against that.
               | 
               | Because Starlink is explicitly designed to be 100%
               | demisable (burn up) in the atmosphere so it cannot harm
               | anyone on the ground. Indeed despite there has been about
               | 100 re-entries of Starlink satellites, and no debris have
               | been found. That's why people don't complain about it to
               | the same level. (Plenty of people still complain or
               | invent reasons to complain, like that it's creating too
               | much aluminum in the atmosphere, so it's not without it's
               | complaints.) SpaceX has indeed had debris de-orbit and
               | hit the ground, other than Starlink, and people have
               | complained about that. They were also MUCH smaller than
               | the Chinese stages however. You have to remember that
               | these are some of the biggest single objects re-entering
               | in human history. There have been only 3 objects that
               | have been heavier to re-enter in an uncontrolled fashion.
               | The bigger and heavier they are, the more debris are
               | likely to survive to hit people or objects on the ground.
               | 
               | > You mean Japanese aren't known to do things that they
               | don't like at an individual level, but still do because
               | they feel compelled to for the benefit of the group? What
               | do you think the phenomenon of not being able to turn
               | down a boss invitation to group drinking exactly is? Why
               | do you think Japanese has fewer problems with masks?
               | 
               | I explicitly was talking about the value that Japan
               | places on an individual's life versus other countries.
               | For example, to what extant a culture is willing to
               | sacrifice an individual's life for the benefit of the
               | greater good.
               | 
               | > Woah, now where does this accusation come from? Do you
               | have any sources backing up your claim that this is what
               | they're doing?
               | 
               | You were just doing it. You were extrapolating CCP values
               | to all of Asia. That's why I mentioned it in ( ) as a
               | side comment.
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | One further note. Here's a list of the largest
               | uncontrolled re-entries.
               | https://planet4589.org/space/articles/big_reentries.txt
               | 
               | Look at the dates on them, other than the Chinese stages.
        
           | bryananderson wrote:
           | I can't emphasize enough how not necessary it is to have the
           | upper stage of CZ-5B reenter uncontrolled. Nudging the stage
           | into the atmosphere while over an ocean is a much easier
           | problem than launching the rocket on a precise trajectory to
           | rendezvous with a space station. China clearly has the
           | capability; not doing it is a choice.
        
             | FooBarWidget wrote:
             | So why isn't Starlink doing it?
             | https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1551434933285052416
             | 
             | And why isn't there a similar amount of outrage against
             | Starlink? Genuine question.
        
               | sam_bristow wrote:
               | I believe Starlink satellites are small enough that
               | they'd burn up completely in the atmosphere before
               | crashing into anything.
        
         | 88840-8855 wrote:
         | Science and prestige probably.
         | 
         | Don't forget that China is still catching up. In the 80s, when
         | it started developing, China was poorer than any African
         | country.
         | 
         | The Soviets and Americans also did a lot of borderline and
         | dangerous stuff when doing prestige and science.
         | 
         | Times changes here in the WeSt where safety is first. It will
         | also be in China one day, too.
        
           | tjpnz wrote:
           | The US program wasn't known for dropping boosters onto
           | villages and dousing residents with hypergolic propellants in
           | the process. While the US program did take a lot of risks
           | early on it would be incorrect to suggest any equivalence in
           | attitudes towards risk management.
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | Was that because they didn't do it or because reporting
             | wasn't very effective in those days? Developing rockets
             | isn't easy, things explode in unexpected ways and as the
             | article points out it can be quite hard to control where a
             | thing lands.
             | 
             | The US is not known for their safety culture, they screw up
             | just as readily as everyone else. They are very well known
             | for minimising its own flaws an throwing a spotlight on its
             | opponents mis-steps. The US inherited the fine British
             | tradition of effective propaganda and do a very good job
             | deploying it (comes with the territory for democracies,
             | really).
             | 
             | Seriously, "they didn't do X..." for a country the size of
             | the US over the length of years we're discussing is
             | meaningless. Proving a negative like that is not practical
             | even in casual conversation.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | > _The US is not known for their safety culture_
               | 
               | SUBSAFE?
        
               | basementcat wrote:
               | This was instituted after the loss of the entire crew of
               | the USS Thresher.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Thresher_(SSN-593)
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | Yes, in 1963. And along with the USS Scorpion (SSN-589)
               | in 1968 are the only two US Navy nuclear submarine
               | sinkings.
               | 
               | Someone can convert that to 9's based on fleet deployment
               | time, but that seems like an exemplary 60 year safety
               | record.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_nuclear_su
               | bma...
        
             | noSyncCloud wrote:
             | > The US program wasn't known for dropping boosters onto
             | villages and dousing residents with hypergolic propellants
             | in the process. While the US program did take a lot of
             | risks early on it would be incorrect to suggest any
             | equivalence in attitudes towards risk management.
             | 
             | It would be correct to suggest equivalence of attitudes
             | while we were nuking Navy sailors and Nevada hundreds of
             | times, to say nothing of willfully infecting citizens with
             | syphilis, etc, etc, etc.
        
               | _Algernon_ wrote:
               | What's your argument? That we shouldn't strive to be
               | better today, because horrible things happened in the
               | past? I guess it is also OK for china to genocide the
               | Uyghurs, since the Holocaust happened.
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | No, because the Nazis are universally reviled. A more apt
               | comparison would be the countless foreign invasions and
               | "regime changes" done by the US, which resulted in
               | millions of direct deaths and god knows how much indirect
               | damage, since that is something that is not universally
               | reviled at all.
        
               | steve76 wrote:
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | Events of over half a century ago bear little relevance
               | to events happening today, right now. You can't use the
               | past to justify the present and the future.
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | Half a century is a bat of an eye in the grand scheme of
               | things.
        
               | lttlrck wrote:
               | So how far back _are_ we allowed to go hunting for
               | justifications?
        
               | tjpnz wrote:
               | I'm talking about NASA, not the US Navy.
        
               | WillPostForFood wrote:
               | Kinda not correct to compare the space program which
               | isn't the nuclear weapons program. If you compare the US
               | space program to the Chinese Program, there no
               | equivalence. If you compare the US nuclear weapons
               | program to the Chinese weapons program, you might
               | something more comparable, but China had some pretty wild
               | and reckless testing. Probably won't surprise many that
               | many test occurs in Xinjiang and affected the Uyghur
               | population.
               | 
               | https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-
               | times/16-october-1964...
        
               | steve76 wrote:
        
           | serf wrote:
           | >The Soviets and Americans also did a lot of borderline and
           | dangerous stuff when doing prestige and science.
           | 
           | the difference being that the cold war fueled novel R&D and
           | science that the world had never seen; the Long March is a
           | tool that was created as a means to chase after the
           | capabilities of similar Heavy-Lift style rockets. The
           | experimentation of the Cold War was fairly tightly controlled
           | and limited in quantity; the Long March is supposed to be
           | used for generally all space construction for the foreseeable
           | future.
           | 
           | Given that this class of tool exists in the world already,
           | all we can be asked to do is judge it against its' peers.
           | They all have had accidents, but if the Long March is going
           | to be known for spraying debris across the planet then this
           | is a problem that everyone must pay attention to, regardless
           | of where China has progressed to with regards to their safety
           | culture.
           | 
           | We're not talking about Chinese safety when we're referring
           | to space debris; this encapsulates the entire world.
        
             | hospadar wrote:
             | > The experimentation of the Cold War was fairly tightly
             | controlled and limited in quantity;
             | 
             | This seems a bit generous to the US & USSR - remember when
             | we nuked the bikini atoll many times? (oops sorry about
             | your homeland)
        
               | foobiekr wrote:
               | The first person down a path, unfortunately, tramples a
               | lot.
               | 
               | It takes serious internal problems for the third or
               | fourth person following to repeat those mistakes.
        
               | waffleiron wrote:
               | It's not like the US made all data from their tests
               | public, your argument would hold up if they would have.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | MichaelCollins wrote:
               | Not just Bikini Atoll; America nuked _itself_ hundreds of
               | times too, injuring and killing perhaps tens of
               | thousands, maybe more:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downwinders
               | 
               | John Wayne is possibly one of the victims of this
               | (inconclusive; besides getting nuked he also smoked like
               | a chimney.)
        
       | Linda703 wrote:
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | > _In May 2020, two villages in Ivory Coast were hit by objects -
       | including a 12-metre section of pipe - that appeared to have come
       | from a Chinese Long March 5B expected to land that day_
       | 
       | > _[Dr Shane] Walsh [International Centre for Radio Astronomy
       | Research: ]<<They claim to have learned from the last two
       | launches and added some method of control, but the EU tracking
       | network showed this unit is tumbling, which means it's not
       | controlled>>_
       | 
       | > _The US and the EU have embedded risk assessments and will not
       | launch if there is a greater than one in 10,000 chance of causing
       | injury. China appears to have a much lower bar_
       | 
       | (From The Guardian:
       | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/29/as-more-space-... )
       | 
       | Some would have though from at least last episode in May 2021
       | that it finally appeared as clear that fatalist and jus-formalist
       | orientations and behaviours are largely frowned upon.
        
         | troyvit wrote:
         | There are no consequences beyond being frowned upon it looks
         | like. One of the perks of being a super power I guess?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _perks of being a super power_
           | 
           | China is a regional power vying for superpower status. To
           | memory, nobody has ever been punished for fucking up launch
           | and recovery. (EDIT: I stand corrected!)
        
             | MichaelCollins wrote:
             | > _To memory, nobody has ever been punished for fucking up
             | launch and recovery._
             | 
             | Canada once fined the Soviet Union six million dollars for
             | crashing a satellite containing a nuclear reactor into
             | northern Canada. The Soviets paid out three million.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954
        
               | 77pt77 wrote:
               | I'm completely surprised they paid anything, let alone
               | half!
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | To be fair, that instance was a crash of 50 kg of U-235,
               | if which only 0.5 kg was recovered.
               | 
               | Apparently the controlling international instrument is
               | the Space Liability Convention (1972) [0].
               | 
               | Ratified by the US, Russia, China, India, Europe, et al.
               | 
               | The only catch is you have to get your government to
               | initiate a claim against the responsible government. E.g.
               | Ivory Coast bringing a claim against China.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Liability_Conve
               | ntion
        
         | yorwba wrote:
         | > The US and the EU have embedded risk assessments and will not
         | launch if there is a greater than one in 10,000 chance of
         | causing injury.
         | 
         | This may seem like a strict requirement, but the surface of the
         | Earth is quite big (510 trillion square meters) compared to how
         | many people there are (7.79 billion), so only about one in
         | 65,000 square meters even has a human on it.
        
       | throwaway4good wrote:
       | It is going to land in the water.
       | 
       | The Chinese know what they are doing.
        
         | MichaelCollins wrote:
         | Yes they know what they're doing, but what they're doing is
         | taking calculated risks. They don't know it's going to land in
         | the water, and their rocket boosters often don't. They
         | understand this risk, and accept it.
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | Are you saying they're able to control it somehow?
        
           | throwaway4good wrote:
           | I am saying they know more about how this thing will fall and
           | desolve than journalists or US defense organisations that
           | have interest in drumming up fear either as a way to get
           | attention or in a broder anti-China effort.
           | 
           | We will see in a couple of hours.
        
             | detritus wrote:
             | Irrespective of whether the US administration wants to
             | 'drum up fear', are you suggesting that China has a better
             | ability to track orbiting objects than the likes of Norad
             | (never mind the global mass of space enthusiasts adding-to
             | and finessing datapoints)?
        
             | mlindner wrote:
             | No they do not know how it will fall. That's beyond the
             | ability of current known science of any country, let alone
             | China.
             | 
             | The last time they did this, they put out a fake
             | "prediction" of where it would fall immediately after it
             | impacted to try to pretend to people that they knew exactly
             | where it would fall.
        
         | JustSomeNobody wrote:
         | _Nobody_ knows what they 're doing to the degree of keeping
         | people perfectly safe. Too many variables in how this thing
         | will interact with the atmosphere on re-entry.
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | Indeed. The stage is wildly tumbling through the edges of the
           | atmosphere and the atmosphere is not continuous but "lumpy"
           | with areas of higher and lower drag.
        
         | pid_0 wrote:
        
         | dudeinjapan wrote:
         | 70% chance. I'll take those odds.
        
         | mlindner wrote:
         | The Chinese don't have any control over this stage. It's
         | tumbling in space (as seen by several observers). They know
         | they're leaving debris in space, but they have no idea where it
         | will land. They continue to lie to their own public and the
         | international public on every launch that the vehicle is
         | controlled.
        
         | throwawayfck wrote:
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | ronyclau wrote:
       | There is a documentary named "Falling from the Sky"[1] from 2009,
       | which depicts how scared and helpless people in a Hunan village
       | were, every time a rocket wss launched from Xichang Satellite
       | Launch Center. The village was located within the area where
       | rocket debris would fall, and the villagers were basically told
       | to suck it up by officials.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2136916/
        
         | r721 wrote:
         | See also this NYT piece with a lot of photos:
         | 
         | >Remote Russians Recycle Rocket Wreckage
         | 
         | >Space junk from rockets launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome
         | in Russia ends up in the remote Mezensky District, where
         | residents repurpose it for hunting sleds, tools and boats.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/lens/space-rocket-parts-r...
        
           | blinding-streak wrote:
           | That is a fantastic alliteration.
        
             | wil421 wrote:
             | Thanks for the new word I just learned.
             | 
             | Definition of alliteration : the repetition of usually
             | initial consonant sounds in two or more neighboring words
             | or syllables (such as wild and woolly, threatening throngs)
             | -- called also head rhyme, initial rhyme
        
               | dreamcompiler wrote:
               | We had to learn _alliteration_ in seventh grade US
               | English class, where we were told in no uncertain terms
               | that we would fail the class if we didn 't master it with
               | examples.
               | 
               | Another word in this category was _assonance_ which as
               | seventh graders we found quite useful for various
               | purposes during instructional hiatus.
        
               | zasdffaa wrote:
               | Guy is pleased he learned something new today, what you
               | replied sounds a lot like a put-down. Just a few minutes
               | ago I learnt of the satanic sounding Cacodyl Cyanide but
               | i'm sure a ton of chemists are very familiar with it.
               | Learn and let learn.
        
               | blinding-streak wrote:
               | Welcome!
        
         | throwaway4good wrote:
         | In the 90es China used to send up satellites for US companies;
         | cheap and cheerful until a major accident happened:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_708
         | 
         | And after the accident; the Chinese fixed their rockets and the
         | Americans started their boycot; including banning them from the
         | ISS leading to the space station program the CZ5B is a part of.
         | 
         | Today the Chinese space program is a source of national pride
         | and is cherred and followed as the US space program was in its
         | heyday.
        
         | GekkePrutser wrote:
         | I can't really help not feeling bad for them. I think the
         | Chinese people need a reality check. Hopefully this kind of
         | movie will spread awareness. The people that should feel bad
         | are those supporting the regime.
         | 
         | The CCP exists because the Chinese let it exist. If they want
         | to have a fair society they'll have to overthrow it sooner or
         | later. We can't do it for them. There is no other way. Even
         | sanctions hurt the people more than the regime (see North
         | Korea). People are nothing but livestock to them. Hopefully
         | these examples will help teach the population to see what they
         | really are. The people 'displaced' by the Olympics are another
         | example.
         | 
         | It seems pretty popular still, but cracks seem to be forming
         | after the heavy-handed Corona measures in Shanghai. I'm hoping
         | it will sow the seeds of discontent and eventually a revolution
         | will happen. Or a gradual move to democracy perhaps. But the
         | tighter controlled a dictatorship is, the lower the chance of
         | that.
         | 
         | Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think that dictatorships will
         | always fall eventually. Even strict ones like China and North
         | Korea.
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | Very cool space junk was found in Australia this week, it's like
       | it's out of a movie -
       | 
       | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/space-junk-found-in-n...
       | 
       | It'd be cool to get close to where this stuff goes down, but it's
       | impossible. Just good luck.
       | 
       | I think seeing the ISS come down in the pacific in 2031 would be
       | cool. Hopefully NASA will help rather than hinder this.
        
         | MichaelCollins wrote:
         | Probably best not to get _too_ close unless you know exactly
         | what it is. Hydrazine is very toxic and probably carcinogenic.
         | It would be cool to watch a reentry like that, but I don 't
         | think I'd get as close to the debris as that guy is.
        
           | 13of40 wrote:
           | It looks like it might be made of carbon fiber as well, which
           | tends to burrow into bare skin when you touch it. I
           | definitely wouldn't take a selfie with my hand resting on it
           | like that guy.
           | 
           | I'm not sure they still do it, but Soyuz(?) used to have a
           | radiation source on the bottom to use as a kind of altitude
           | detector, so if one of those broke up there could be another
           | surprise for someone who found debris.
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | That video is incredible. "It's kinda incredible really having
         | this piece of space junk fallin in me uhhh ... paddy. You know
         | think of what else is out there in uhh other people's paddies.
         | _inaudible above my children 's weird minecraft videos_ Yeh? I
         | suppose you wouldn't fare too well if a piece landed on yuh"
        
         | throwaway4good wrote:
         | Imagine the coverage of this had that thing been Chinese.
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | It would have been marginally increased compared to what it
           | got, however this thing is not a 20+ ton object like the
           | Chinese stage. It's a few hundred kg. The western press
           | hasn't cared about other re-entering Chinese stages until
           | they start lofting entire main stages into orbit much larger
           | than almost anything in history to re-enter. (The only things
           | larger to re-enter uncontrolled were full space stations,
           | which has only occurred a couple times in history.)
        
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