[HN Gopher] Migratory monarch butterfly now endangered
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Migratory monarch butterfly now endangered
        
       Author : gmays
       Score  : 185 points
       Date   : 2022-07-22 15:02 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.iucn.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.iucn.org)
        
       | nr2x wrote:
       | The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert is required reading.
       | 
       | We're in the midst of a very rare event, that we caused, are
       | making worse, and we don't know what will ultimately happen.
        
         | johnyzee wrote:
         | I just read Flight Behavior, by Barbara Kingsolver, which has a
         | plot with a backdrop of Monarch butterflies, their migration
         | and the threats climate changes can pose to them. It's a great
         | book, I recommend it.
        
         | debacle wrote:
         | If history is a guide, greed will win out and weak men will
         | suffer at their own hands.
        
           | ehnto wrote:
           | We're really talking about humanity versus the ecosystem here
           | though. If there is an ecological collapse, that would also
           | mean societal collapse, and no one wins.
        
       | pamelafox wrote:
       | If any of you are in California and are interested in creating a
       | habitat for Monarch caterpillars around your home, I highly
       | recommend Narrow-leaf milkweed. It's one of the native milkweeds
       | and its the favorite of my caterpillars (they hate Showy
       | milkweed).
       | 
       | You can find nurseries with Narrow-leaf here:
       | https://calscape.org/nurseries.php?id=434&showmap=1
       | 
       | Or you can grow from seed:
       | https://larnerseeds.com/products/asclepias-fascicularis-narr...
       | 
       | I do both, since you can never have enough milkweed!
       | 
       | Here's a video of a Monarch butterfly recently flying for the
       | first time after pupating on our Salvia:
       | https://studio.youtube.com/video/edTgi7f1NlY/edit
        
         | kshahkshah wrote:
         | Will add, if you're buying from a nursery, make sure the grower
         | they source from use neonicotinoids free soil.
         | 
         | I've been visited by so so many different butterflies this
         | year. I'm in Zone 6B, central NJ. I planted asclepias tuberosa
         | (mexican milkweed, orange flowers, medium height), lots of
         | agastache, eupatorium (little joe pyeweed), and monarda. Highly
         | recommend doing some research on natives.
        
           | quercusa wrote:
           | Darn rabbits got my _tuberosa_. If you don 't have Mountain
           | Mint[0] ( _Pycnanthemum muticum_ ) it drives all the non-
           | butterfly pollinators nuts. I'm hoping to find some Winged
           | Sumac[1] as it's also a big draw.
           | 
           | [0] https://njaes.rutgers.edu/plant-of-the-
           | month/pycnanthemum.ph...
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://www.wildflower.org/plants/result.php?id_plant=RHCO
        
             | kshahkshah wrote:
             | I didn't know about mountain mint, this is a fabulous
             | recommendation. Thank you!
        
           | pamelafox wrote:
           | Ah yes, good point, apparently some of the local nurseries
           | have sprayed their milkweeds with some sort of pesticide,
           | which means you have to keep caterpillars off them for a
           | year. If you go to a nursery that specializes in natives,
           | that's usually not an issue. In bay area, my favorite
           | nurseries are Watershed and Oaktown Native, and they don't
           | spray.
           | 
           | We've actually had a ton of swallowtails this year, which
           | I'll admit are all over my non-native dill. I intend to plant
           | Yampah one of these days, since that's the native version of
           | dill.
        
         | 14 wrote:
         | I just bought these ones I didn't realize there was a specific
         | species they prefer are these ones okay?
         | https://www.amazon.ca/Caribou-Seed-Company-Butterflies-Germi...
        
           | pamelafox wrote:
           | Hm, so it seems like that milkweed does have a distribution
           | in California, but is not one of the native ones.
           | https://www.calflora.org/app/taxon?crn=9705 says it's not
           | native, and Calscape doesn't list it at all. If you're in
           | California, I'd highly recommend getting the narrow-leaf
           | instead, if you don't mind spending a little more money.
           | Also, if you can, plant some native Salvia nearby for them to
           | pupate on. Salvia Clevandii does quite well. They'll also
           | pupate on arbors, trellises, fences, etc.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | angst_ridden wrote:
         | Interesting. In my area (Southern California), the Monarchs
         | seem to really prefer the Tropical (Asclepias curassavica). We
         | plante it when a local Monarch enthusiast recommended it. Now
         | that we're more educated, we've been gradually getting rid of
         | it.
        
           | pamelafox wrote:
           | Ah, I never even attempted the tropical since it's not
           | native, so I don't know how ravenous they'd be for it. I just
           | contrast narrow-leaf to showy since those are the two
           | commonly sold native CA milkweeds, and my caterpillars are
           | just so incredibly not into the showy, it might as well not
           | be milkweed.
        
             | angst_ridden wrote:
             | We were pretty ignorant when we started our Monarch garden.
             | It was 20 years ago, and there was less readily-available
             | information.
        
               | pamelafox wrote:
               | Yeah, to be fair, I'm in that situation with swallowtails
               | right now. I planted non-native dill, and it's swamped
               | with happy swallowtails, as I didn't know about the
               | native Yampah. Hope to replace the dill with yampah next
               | year. Until then, the swallowtails shall have a dill
               | buffet.
        
         | eklitzke wrote:
         | Working YouTube URL:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edTgi7f1NlY
        
       | immmmmm wrote:
       | I read Ceballos the other day, a brilliant conservation biologist
       | talking often of the 6th mass extinction, saying in an informal
       | context that homo sapiens would not survive it.
       | 
       | I know that kind of science, i have read thousands of articles
       | these last years. I love dystopian Sci-Fi too.
       | 
       | I think it's a special moment when you see the experts discussing
       | the possible extinction of your own species, and that every
       | dataset, every model, points a bit more towards it.
       | 
       | And i see climatologists, Mann included, saying climate impacts
       | are coming _decades in advance_.
       | 
       | What a time to be "alive".
        
       | mmazing wrote:
       | I let local native milkweed grow wild on my land, specifically
       | for Monarchs. I saw at least 3 this morning (unlikely to be
       | migratory, I suppose?)
       | 
       | Hopefully my property can be a stop for some of the migratory
       | species!
        
       | carbadtraingood wrote:
       | The way we treat the destruction of species and habitat at our
       | hands as a necessary side effect of progress is alarming.
       | 
       | Removing a species from the planet is like removing a screw from
       | an airplane in flight - you can probably remove a lot of screws
       | before there's a problem, but you will eventually crash
       | catastrophically if you keep at it.
        
         | eljimmy wrote:
         | I think we as a species must rid ourselves of selfishness and
         | greed. We need to think beyond the timelines of our own
         | existence.
         | 
         | Alas, I fear those traits may be too deeply rooted in our our
         | own nature and nurture that our demise may be inevitable.
        
           | PuppyTailWags wrote:
           | I want to push against the narrative that selfishness and
           | greed is inherent. The currently dominant society might
           | socialize its people to prioritize selfishness and greed but
           | not all societies do and not all societies must.
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | To be a contrarian, perhaps the societies that prioritize
             | selfishness end up dominating as a result.
             | 
             | I act with optimism, teach optimism to my children. When
             | left to my inner thoughts however I worry about the future
             | of our species.
        
               | angst_ridden wrote:
               | Dominating? In the way a bacteria dominates a petrie dish
               | until it exhausts all the resources and dies off?
        
               | JKCalhoun wrote:
               | Exactly.
        
             | bmitc wrote:
             | Selfishness and greed is at the heart of humanity. Just
             | look at every lawn covering every plot of land. They are
             | examples of pure greed. Almost no one uses parts of their
             | lawn regularly, and so they only exist for vanity purposes.
             | 
             | There is a reason why many restoration and native plant
             | proponents teach about empathy. One needs to gain empathy
             | for plant and wildlife struggle before being able to enact
             | change.
             | 
             | We could solve a lot of problems almost immediately if we
             | had even a modicum amount of collective empathy.
        
               | downboots wrote:
               | It means mostly anyone can help contributing by
               | converting part of that lawn
               | 
               | Native species make the most sense but there are plenty
               | of other beneficial weeds
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beneficial_weed
               | 
               | Like a victory garden, but war of a different _nature_
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | zmgsabst wrote:
         | Species disappear all the time.
         | 
         | The issue, in so much as there is one, is the speed at which
         | that change is happening.
        
           | carbadtraingood wrote:
           | Note I specifically said "at our hands" to suggest exactly
           | this. Nature gonna nature, agreed. What we're doing is
           | different.
        
             | nemo44x wrote:
             | Aren't we nature too? Isn't every species of living thing
             | trying to thrive as much as possible in a ceaseless
             | competition for space and resources?
             | 
             | Are we the shepards of the world or just another organic
             | life?
        
               | carbadtraingood wrote:
               | No. We were nature, but we're progressing faster than
               | natural processes can adapt.
        
       | melling wrote:
       | World population in 1980: 4.4 billion
       | 
       | World population today: 8.0 billion
       | 
       | ...
       | 
       | We need more land, houses, cars, energy, ...
       | 
       | overfishing: https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/overfishing
       | 
       | Need to burn down the rainforests for cattle:
       | 
       | https://wwf.panda.org/discover/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/a...
       | 
       | Electricity generation with fossil fuels looks like it tripled:
       | 
       | https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-electri...
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | the vast majority of the population growth is in places that
         | have never seen this species; overly-general advice is not
         | going to solve this particular problem
        
           | melling wrote:
           | Strange, the article specifically mentions urban development.
           | Where is the disconnect?
           | 
           | "by between 22% and 72% over the past decade. Legal and
           | illegal logging and deforestation to make space for
           | agriculture and urban development has already destroyed
           | substantial areas of the butterflies' winter shelter in
           | Mexico and California, while pesticides and herbicides used
           | in intensive agriculture across the range kill butterflies
           | and milkweed, the host plant that the larvae of the monarch
           | butterfly feed on."
           | 
           | The population of Mexico has doubled since 1980 and the US
           | has gone from 227 million to 340 million people
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | carbadtraingood wrote:
         | "Need". We don't need to do those things. We choose to do those
         | things.
        
           | melling wrote:
           | Keep telling yourself that right up until all the damage is
           | permanent.
           | 
           | "If only the people in the Amazon chose not to burn down the
           | forest for cattle"
           | 
           | "If only China and India didn't burn so much coal"
           | 
           | "If only people didn't eat so much fish"
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
        
             | carbadtraingood wrote:
             | What? I'm not sure what you are saying... We don't need to
             | eat beef, both here and in Brazil. We choose to, in both
             | places. We, locally, need to regulate harder and push
             | harder globally to protect things.
        
               | melling wrote:
               | I'm saying that "If only we didn't eat beef" is not a
               | workable solution.
               | 
               | What's important is that people realize they are
               | proposing solutions that sound good but are not helpful.
               | 
               | Half the Amazon will be torched before you realize this?
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | Meanwhile people wring their hands and fret over declining
         | population _growth_ , because of the short-term effects it will
         | have (on the order of a couple of decades). Seems incredibly
         | short-sighted to me.
         | 
         | I see no reason why we should specifically pursue growth,
         | rather than a stable population. Short-term population
         | _decrease_ would even be a good thing, as the older and larger
         | generations eventually pass on and their children and
         | grandchildren have fewer children of their own.
        
           | trgn wrote:
           | I think it's less about population growth and more about
           | habitat destruction. One does not imply the other. Town
           | living instead of suburbs, more pollinator gardens. That
           | already will make a huge difference.
        
             | melling wrote:
             | More than half the world lives in urban areas.l, which is
             | an increase
             | 
             | https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
             | 
             | "More than half of the world's population now live in urban
             | areas -- increasingly in highly-dense cities. However,
             | urban settings are a relatively new phenomenon in human
             | history. This transition has transformed the way we live,
             | work, travel and build networks."
        
             | nerdponx wrote:
             | I don't know. How much habitat has been destroyed for
             | farming, resource extraction, and other industrial purposes
             | like waste storage?
        
       | 14 wrote:
       | I feel bad that as a kid we had a neighbor that would pay us to
       | collect them so she could have them close up and paint pictures
       | of them. We didn't kill that many but definitely killed a few. I
       | just went on Amazon and bought a pack of milkweed seeds to plant
       | in my yard to make up for that mistake as a kid. I have seen
       | quite a few of them flying around this year. Hope to see them
       | bounce back.
        
       | pastor_bob wrote:
       | I see these in Brooklyn, and I'm always amazed that they (and
       | other butterflies) can get here. They must go over stretches
       | dozens of miles long without any food or water.
        
       | sk8terboi wrote:
       | Not here in the north, they're all over!
        
       | angst_ridden wrote:
       | I think history (if there is any) will judge harshly the decision
       | to allow the use of neonicotinids.
       | 
       | In addition to general habitat destruction, the indisciminate
       | obliteration of insect populations is going to bite humanity on
       | the ass in ways we can't even imagine yet.
        
       | philliphaydon wrote:
       | Are these the same type of Monarch butterlies found in NZ?
       | 
       | https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/127540958/new-zealands-m...
        
         | dkasper wrote:
         | Yes
        
       | chomp wrote:
       | Copy+pasting my comment from another thread:
       | 
       | For those wanting to plant milkweed: not all milkweed is a
       | Monarch host. Of the known Monarch hosts, there is minimal
       | documentation of which is the "best" for a Monarch. It's
       | recommended that you pick a host native to your area. Page 93 on
       | the following document[1] includes some species that are helpful
       | to Monarch populations, broken down by area of the United States.
       | 
       | For those who would like to purchase caterpillar stock to
       | increase the local population, please reconsider. Bred Monarchs
       | have a lack of genetic diversity that you are releasing in the
       | wild, which can tip over populations due to poor genetics. There
       | is research that shows that planting evergreen milkweed
       | (encouraging sedentary behavior by removing the need to migrate),
       | or releasing captive or reared monarchs, can allow unhealthy
       | monarchs to survive and harm the population when they would not
       | otherwise have survived migrations[2] Studies on bugs or and
       | species have shown that animals can adapt to captive conditions
       | in as short as one or two generations. When this happens,
       | researchers wind up seeing alleles that are harmful to the wild
       | population. [3] There is also the case to be made that by
       | releasing abundant numbers, you are potentially creating food
       | shortages that will harm even more butterflies.
       | 
       | Plant local natives. Don't release into the wild.
       | 
       | [1]
       | http://www.xerces.org/sites/default/files/2018-05/17-031_02_...
       | 
       | [2]
       | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2014.173...
       | 
       | [3]
       | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-294X....
        
         | angst_ridden wrote:
         | There was a big trend to planting tropical milkweed (Asclepias
         | curassavica) on the West Coast. Originally, it was considered a
         | good thing. Now, because the plant's a perennial in this
         | climate and is a good place for spreading OE spores, it's
         | considered a bad thing.
         | 
         | Some people advocate growing it because it's fast-growing,
         | robust, and provides plentiful food. My understanding is that,
         | if you do plant it, cut it well down in winter to prevent the
         | spread of OE.
         | 
         | In my own experience in California, the Monarchs really prefer
         | to nectar and lay eggs on tropical rather than the native
         | narrow-leaf milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis). We've been
         | purging our garden of the tropical anyway.
         | 
         | There are also some milkweed adjacent non-natives that they
         | sort of like, e.g., Gomphocarpus physocarpus (aka Asclepias
         | physocarpa). Again, my understanding is that the jury's out as
         | to whether it's a good plant to have around for the Monarchs.
         | It ceryainly is a striking plant that gets a lot of attention!
        
           | chomp wrote:
           | Yep, +1 to all of that. We have a combination of species
           | planted (Texas), I don't really track which ones they favor.
           | It makes it sort of easy to time cutting back the Tropical in
           | that case, because when the others die back, you can cut back
           | the tropical as well.
        
           | sixothree wrote:
           | Does dill grow well there or present any issues?
        
             | angst_ridden wrote:
             | I don't think dill presents any issues, but we haven't
             | planted any.
             | 
             | We have a lot of bronze fennel (which is non-native but
             | heavily naturalized), and it's a host plant for the
             | swallowtail butterflies. We get a lot of them too.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
        
       | tmountain wrote:
       | Is this the main species of monarch? I have them in my yard
       | pretty regularly, but I also plant milkweed, their host plant to
       | try and provide them with some habitat.
        
       | dukeofdoom wrote:
       | Milkweed is a very interesting looking plant. It's pretty and
       | ornamental, Should be more popular in gardens. Especially in city
       | gardens.
        
       | mistrial9 wrote:
       | seen this with my own eyes in my lifetime, here on the West Coast
       | of California.. powerfully emotional if you have imprinted on it
       | at a certain age; I suspect that the vast majority of people
       | literally have more interest in the next five minutes than those
       | flying things.. specialists are called for..
        
       | de6u99er wrote:
       | They'll say we had hot eeather in the past.
        
       | downboots wrote:
       | Our ability to simulate the world is in direct proportion to our
       | ability to prevent existential risk.
        
       | dkasper wrote:
       | Very important to clarify this is only the migratory subspecies.
       | The species as a whole is not endangered at all:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly
        
       | spankalee wrote:
       | I can't believe how fast this is happening. I used to see
       | millions of them, covering and almost dripping from trees like
       | sap, in Santa Cruz.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Yep, took the daughters down the California coast near Pismo to
         | see the migration -- maybe a decade or so ago. They covered the
         | trees, ground.
         | 
         | In the years following when we stopped by it was grim, so few
         | of them.
        
         | time_to_smile wrote:
         | "'How did you go bankrupt?'
         | 
         | Two ways.
         | 
         | Gradually, then suddenly."
         | 
         | -- Ernest Hemingway, _The Sun Also Rises_
        
       | grapeskin wrote:
       | > The western population is at greatest risk of extinction,
       | having declined by an estimated 99.9%, from as many as 10 million
       | to 1,914 butterflies between the 1980s and 2021.
       | 
       | Insane. I wonder if recovery is even possible without devoted
       | breeding efforts. A population this small could easily be wiped
       | out by birds or a single storm.
        
         | kvathupo wrote:
         | Of particular worry, decreasing population entails decreasing
         | gene pool (as I understand it). Thus, with a lack of sufficient
         | genetic diversity in a small population, the species enters a
         | mutation-motivated extinction vortex [1].
         | 
         | Biology is a very existing field from the standpoint of
         | mathematical formalism, which is lacking relative to the much
         | older field of Physics. In this regard, I'm reminded of how the
         | overly simple math of Mendelian inheritance motivated the bad
         | policy of eugenics [2].
         | 
         | I welcome any proper Biologists to correct my remarks. I have
         | but passing interest!
         | 
         | [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_erosion
         | 
         | [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Mendelian_inheritance
        
         | frumper wrote:
         | Not that the population is doing great, but last years numbers
         | rebounded to about a quarter million. A 100x increase from the
         | previous year.
         | 
         | https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/26/western-monarch-butte...
        
           | paiute wrote:
           | I'm a big conservationist, but I'm so disillusioned by it
           | these days. You're onto something here. We don't seem to have
           | much data on their population size, but all the articles
           | start from 1997 data when the population was at a peak. You
           | go back a few years and the numbers are lower. This is a
           | private organization and I don't see the criteria by which
           | they mark a species endangered. They probably just make stuff
           | up. Most creatures go through population cycles, and just
           | quickly looking at the data going back to the early 90's it
           | seems monarchs have huge boom and busts. A monarch lays up to
           | 500 eggs in a week... so if you have a good year with lots of
           | food and low predation and 100x increase it not hard to
           | understand. It also not hard to anticipate huge declines the
           | following season.
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | No, they probably don't just make stuff up. Why would you
             | think that?
        
             | gns24 wrote:
             | The criteria by which they consider things endangered are
             | here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endangered_species_(IUC
             | N_statu...
        
           | nabakin wrote:
           | Makes me suspect that 2k estimate was very wrong
        
             | quietbritishjim wrote:
             | That suspicion is reinforced by the fact that the second
             | estimate is strangely specific. 1,914? Not 1,915? Perhaps
             | that number is from some survey or count that was meant for
             | finding trends rather than estimating the total count.
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | I've visited known Monarch locations and the difference in
             | actual visible butterflies in 2021 was astounding. I don't
             | see any reason to think that estimate was wrong.
        
             | throwaway5752 wrote:
             | Or, looking at it the other way, the population is down 98%
             | instead of 99.9%. It's really not that substantial of an
             | error, and yours is a very "programmer talking about
             | ecology" type of response. It's a terrible situation for
             | the species and the outcome is largely the same -
             | extinction within our lifetime - and you are quibbling
             | about petty data concerns within the broader context.
        
               | AlbertCory wrote:
               | This argument kinda reminds me of this bit of sophistry
               | (a nod to Ted Gioia for his "word of the year"):
               | 
               | [Troper] X is up exponentially!
               | 
               | [Engineer] Actually, it's only up 25%.
               | 
               | [Troper] Whatever. You're minimizing the importance of X!
               | 
               | So the sophistry is to make a ridiculous claim to get
               | attention, and then when you're called on it, back away
               | and say the number doesn't matter -- it's still
               | important.
               | 
               | In case it was ambiguous: yes, I did know the word, but
               | no, it hasn't been used much lately, more's the pity.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | In the context of a population over this range, a couple
               | hundred thousand and a couple of thousand butterflies
               | isn't as big a difference as you'd think, particularly
               | over the time frame we're looking at (a few decades). I'd
               | be surprised if they avoid extirpation (local extinction
               | within a range) at this point - Western Monarches have
               | habitat loss, terrible losses from pesticides, and now
               | climate change really kicking in.
               | 
               | To be pedantic, I don't think this is an example of
               | sophistry. It may seem that way from your perspective,
               | but I'd have to be in coordination with IUCN, which I'm
               | not. I think in this case the logical fallacy would have
               | to advanced by a single person or group. Also, perhaps
               | since it's a relatively new word to you, you don't know
               | it is considered insulting?
               | 
               | To recap: IUCN made the claim about a population of
               | 1,914/99.9 percent drop in population, which was mistaken
               | (I found the source of the error from misinterpreted
               | numbers from https://xerces.org/ further down, if you
               | noticed). I made the separate claim that their error
               | doesn't really matter, because both are almost equally
               | dire and there is little difference between the level of
               | urgency/intervention required to prevent functional
               | extinction. I still stand by it.
        
               | AlbertCory wrote:
               | Perhaps you don't know it's considered insulting to say
               | "Perhaps since it's a relatively new word to you" ?
               | 
               | I've known the word "sophistry" for a long, long time,
               | Throw. And I'll stack my erudition up against yours any
               | time at all.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | nabakin wrote:
               | > looking at it the other way, the population is down 98%
               | instead of 99.9%. It's really not that substantial of an
               | error
               | 
               | An estimate that can easily confuse 2k with 250k is not
               | an estimate to use. Now if a range was specified taking
               | into account the variability, like 100k-2k, that would be
               | much better. If the study did this, the article would be
               | at fault for not being accurate.
               | 
               | > yours is a very "programmer talking about ecology"
               | 
               | I don't think I know everything, I simply commented on a
               | niche forum about something I was curious. The vitriol is
               | completely unwarranted.
               | 
               | > It's a terrible situation for the species the outcome
               | is largely the same - extinction within our lifetime -
               | and you are quibbling about petty data concerns within
               | the broader context.
               | 
               | So what? Should I take all data on blind faith? Should I
               | not question the validity of data when bullshit is so
               | rampant? Stop the strawman, I never said I disagreed with
               | the conclusion of the study, just that the single
               | estimate was suspicious.
               | 
               | Next time, if you actually know anything, aim to explain
               | instead of attacking me. I can admit my mistakes and will
               | be much more receptive.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | I don't want to have a fight. We all know tone is tough
               | and I didn't want to sounds as vitriolic as it came off
               | to you. I can see how it did and I apologize to you.
               | 
               | It seems obvious to me that this is a PR release, written
               | by a non-scientist. They didn't offer citations, and it
               | took me some digging to find the sourcing for the oddly
               | specific figure: https://xerces.org/blog/fifth-annual-
               | western-monarch-new-yea...
               | 
               |  _" Since 1997 volunteers have conducted counts of
               | overwintering monarchs for the Xerces Society's annual
               | Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count. As a way to better
               | understand how the overwintering population changes
               | throughout the winter, an additional count--the New
               | Year's Count--was started in 2016. Now in its fifth year,
               | the New Year's Count has given us a better understanding
               | of: 1) how monarch numbers may decline at overwintering
               | sites as the winter progresses; 2) how monarchs move
               | between and within sites; 3) when they leave sites; and
               | 4) the level of mortality that adult monarchs may be
               | experiencing during the winter.
               | 
               | Between December 26, 2020, and January 10, 2021,
               | volunteers conducted surveys for the New Year's Count and
               | tallied a total of 1,039 monarchs at 149 sites. These
               | surveys followed the annual Western Monarch Thanksgiving
               | Count, which is conducted annually for three weeks
               | centered around the Thanksgiving holiday, and recently
               | reported a mere 1,914 monarchs in total across 246 sites.
               | At 77 sites, no monarchs were found during either the
               | Thanksgiving or New Year's Count, at 15 sites monarch
               | numbers increased between the Thanksgiving and New Year's
               | counts, at 54 sites monarch numbers decreased, and at 3
               | sites monarch numbers stayed the same. After the dismal
               | numbers from the Thanksgiving Count, expectations for
               | finding monarchs were low, but the news isn't all bad.
               | For the sites counted during both the Thanksgiving Count
               | and the New Year's Count, the decline in monarchs
               | averaged 37%, which is lower than previous years
               | (40-49%)."_
               | 
               | This is not aimed at you, but it's a general complain: It
               | is no fun to do OSS development any more because nobody
               | wants to contribute or collaborate: they want to post a
               | problem in an issue and have the maintainers solve their
               | problem.
               | 
               | Now aimed at you: I think there's a reasonable
               | expectation of editorial competence from any content, and
               | this probably didn't meet it, but I think we can all go
               | the extra mile and read, learn, and understand before
               | replying. Myself included.
        
               | nabakin wrote:
               | Appreciate the apology, sorry from my side as well. I
               | also responded pretty aggressively when I didn't need to.
               | 
               | Thanks for the link too, I'm reading through it atm.
               | 
               | I agree that you shouldn't post prematurely and should
               | learn more about the subject before you speak on it, but
               | there are so many topics that come up throughout the day
               | it's impossible to research all of them. I was hoping if
               | the number wasn't suspicious, someone who knew better
               | could explain it. Maybe it would have been better to
               | phrase my comment as a question instead of a statement
               | though.
        
         | moviewise wrote:
         | What you can do: Plant more eucalyptus trees in California
         | 
         | Monarch butterflies in California need eucalyptus trees for
         | their winter roost https://milliontrees.me/2013/11/01/monarch-
         | butterflies-in-ca...
        
           | mistrial9 wrote:
           | untrue -- Blue Gum is not native.. aka eucalyptus;
           | specialists needed here
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Yeah California has enough eucalyptus. I second the
             | suggestion to plant native local plants that get the goals
             | you want (eucalyptuses are the opposite of native).
        
             | moviewise wrote:
             | In Santa Cruz, California, where monarch butterflies roost
             | in winter:
             | 
             | "The number of Natural Bridges' overwintering butterflies
             | is still down more than 95 percent since 1997, and the
             | Tasmanian blue gum eucalyptus canopy that has sheltered
             | generations of butterflies is falling apart."
             | 
             | "Eucalyptus trees have small leaves that are thin enough
             | for monarchs to wrap their feet around. For longer than
             | anyone can remember, those trees have also provided the
             | butterflies a convenient food source and a haven during the
             | winter months, like a warm blanket or an umbrella to
             | protect them from the wind and rain."
             | 
             | https://www.goodtimes.sc/eucalyptus-grove-monarch-
             | butterflie...
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | jolux wrote:
           | Aren't eucalyptus trees invasive and a hazard for fire
           | control? I know they're clear-cutting loads of eucalyptus in
           | the Berkeley Hills for concerns of fire risk.
        
         | bmitc wrote:
         | The problem is destruction of native plants and habitat.
         | Monarch butterflies only use milkweeds, such as swamp milkweed
         | and common milkweed. It's my understanding that they like those
         | two the most but maybe which milkweed they prefer is region
         | dependent.
         | 
         | If one wants to help the monarchs, and several other pollinator
         | species, then plant swamp and common milkweed. They grow very
         | easily and actually have pleasant blooms.
         | 
         | It's almost as of the problem couldn't be simpler to solve.
         | Just plant these and watch how much activity they generate
         | almost immediately. I did it and have been seeing monarch
         | butterflies lately. Not a lot, but some.
        
           | grapeskin wrote:
           | Destruction of the food source is one of major causes of the
           | population drop, as mentioned in the linked article. It also
           | mentions storms being able to wipe out millions.
           | 
           | Even if there's 100x as much milkweed next year as there is
           | this year, it terrifies me that a forest fire or something
           | could easily wipe out such a small population today and
           | that's the end of the line.
        
             | bmitc wrote:
             | But the solution is again: more native plants. Certainly
             | wildfires will destroy any initiative there though.
             | 
             | We have got to have a movement of restoring native plant
             | life.
        
           | hedora wrote:
           | Some of this advice requires clarification. There's only one
           | commercially available breed of milkweed available around
           | here. (Ask for "native" and "for monarchs" at the nursery)
           | 
           | Also, if you plant too close to the coast (5 or 10 miles;
           | can't remember) it discourages migration, and does more harm
           | than good.
           | 
           | If you are near the coast, plant pollinator gardens (native
           | wildflowers) instead. Your local nursery can give more
           | accurate and more specific advice.
        
           | atwood22 wrote:
           | Most milkweed is poisonous to humans, dogs, and livestock.
           | Not saying don't plant it, but just be aware if you have
           | small kids around.
        
             | bmitc wrote:
             | The vast majority of plants are toxic to humans, dogs, and
             | cats.
             | 
             | The non-native daffodils that everyone and their dog plants
             | are extremely toxic to dogs and cats and also humans. Same
             | goes for many plant species, especially those that are
             | commonly planted. The, again non-native, yew bushes that
             | are planted everywhere are also extremely toxic.
             | 
             | It isn't an excuse but people will hide behind it (not
             | saying you do). If we wanted to eliminate all toxic plants,
             | we'd literally have nothing and certainly no agriculture.
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | It tastes very bitter and you have to eat quite a lot of it
             | for it to be dangerous. It's a risk but mostly for sheep
             | and the like. Properly prepared, people do eat it
             | intentionally.
        
             | TedDoesntTalk wrote:
             | I grew up surrounded by milkweed. Yet somehow I survived
             | and never once thought "I'm going to eat this and see how
             | it tastes."
             | 
             | I have children now. I've never seen them taste arbitrary,
             | random plants.
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | Unlikely to ever recover due to habitat loss. I remember seeing
         | many many more monarchs in the early 80s, and it's insane to
         | think I may have already seen the last one I'll ever see.
         | 
         | Similar story with a much larger animal; the American bison.
         | The low end estimates say their used to be 30 million roaming
         | the plains. There are half a million now, most livestock. We'll
         | never get them back.
        
         | illwrks wrote:
         | My parents and their neighbours had plenty of flowers and
         | suitable plants growing in their gardens. They live in a small
         | tourist town in south west Ireland.
         | 
         | I have vivid memories as a child of what was likely thousands
         | of monarch butterflies every summer, probably until I was 10 or
         | so, in and around the flowers and plants. Then then open
         | pastures behind my parents house were bulldozed and a private
         | housing estate was built and at the same time my parents also
         | tarred their front drive. From then on the butterflies started
         | to dwindle significantly. Those two events were the only great
         | change in the immediate surroundings until twelve-or-so years
         | later when a brutal winter killed a lot of the trees and
         | plants.
         | 
         | Never again have I see as many in a single place.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | ralusek wrote:
       | I had a single milkweed potted plant on my roof. Within a day I
       | saw a monarch on it. Within a few weeks I had about 20
       | caterpillars devour it. Within a few more weeks, I counted 16
       | chrysalises around my patio, of which 13 flew away successfully.
       | Pretty amazing.
        
         | nolroz wrote:
         | My goodness that must have been a huge milkweed! I had three
         | 2-3ft tall plants a while back and they were decimated by 9
         | just caterpillars.
        
       | rch wrote:
       | I've been told, by a local farmer / restaurant owner from
       | Torreon, that monarch preserves in Mexico are under pressure from
       | cartels that want to convert the land into avocado farms, through
       | violence if necessary. Some restaurants are already taking
       | avocados off the menu as a result, and I've been cutting them out
       | of my diet as well (irrespective of origin).
       | 
       | Edit: here's a link --
       | https://www.npr.org/2020/02/03/802359415/sadness-and-worry-a...
        
       | Tiktaalik wrote:
       | Depressing and infuriating.
       | 
       | Local radio talking about this story interviewed gardeners that
       | suggested planting milkweed, as if a some scattered houses will
       | make any sort of difference.
       | 
       | Meanwhile global climate change and widespread habitat
       | destruction for farms and industry will doom the species.
       | 
       | No discussion of the broader systemic issues or about how the
       | status quo habits of our society has created this crisis.
        
       | questiondev wrote:
       | i know they really like milkweed which a lot of people kill
       | without thinking of the environmental consequences.
        
       | lbrindze wrote:
       | One of the most interesting things I ever saw sailing was a
       | singular monarch butterfly in the middle of the gulf-stream about
       | halfway back from bermuda. This was over 300 miles away from any
       | land (including bermuda).
       | 
       | It stopped for a very brief rest (a second or two at most) and
       | then continued flying in the opposite direction. Very unexpected
       | and surreal but this really speaks to the sort of distances they
       | can travel without stopping.
       | 
       | Does anyone know how common these kind of sightings are? Very sad
       | to find out that these butterflies are now considered endangered.
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | in the Atlantic? likely it was blown off course, they're
         | obviously very light and winds play a large factor in their
         | migration
         | 
         | it's not unusual to spot a monarch somewhere in the Gulf of
         | Mexico, like an oil rig, but it's not entirely clear how many
         | try to take that 900 mile flight... it's more likely they're
         | blown off course and won't make it to shore unless wind
         | conditions are just right enough to carry them
        
           | melling wrote:
           | Here are some older HN discussions on the declining butterfly
           | population.
           | 
           | I only selected those that are at least 5 years old.
           | 
           | https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1500508800&dateRange=custom&.
           | ..
        
       | goosegoose wrote:
       | For those commenting that this is only the migratory subspecies -
       | yes, you are quite correct, but do note that this is the only
       | subspecies you will see in the USA - except in the south of
       | Florida. The non-migratory subspecies is found from southern
       | Florida down through the Caribbean, Central America, and South
       | America north of the Amazon Drainage.
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | If you find yourself in California's Monterey Bay area (Santa
       | Cruz, Watsonville, Salinas, Monterey) there are still Monarch
       | habitats you can visit. It's worth seeing if you're halfway
       | interested in nature.
       | 
       | And if you live in the area you can plant flowers to support the
       | Monarch migration. I learned recently you're not supposed to
       | plant milkweed close to the established breeding habitats, just
       | plant regular wildflowers they can feed on while they're headed
       | to the butterfly sex party.
       | 
       | https://www.pgmuseum.org/how-to-help-monarchs
        
         | valarauko wrote:
         | > you're not supposed to plant milkweed close to the
         | established breeding habitats
         | 
         | Overwintering sites, not breeding sites. Monarchs migrating
         | south & at the winter roosting sites don't need milkweed since
         | they're not breeding or laying eggs. While the overwintering
         | sites are in Central Mexico, the breeding sites for the
         | northern migrants is in the Southwestern US - where they do
         | need milkweed. Exposure to milkweed while overwintering
         | triggers breeding and laying eggs, which is disruptive to the
         | migration pattern. Native Milkweed elsewhere along the northern
         | migration path is beneficial, just not where they're wintering.
        
       | beckingz wrote:
       | So what can we do as individuals to help?
        
         | trgn wrote:
         | Plant milkweed. They may take a few years to establish, but
         | it's effective. We get monarchs every year now. This is in an
         | urban area.
         | 
         | Small conservation efforts really do make a difference. Don't
         | be discouraged that you're not fixing the big issues.
         | Pollinator gardens will improve biodiversity in your own little
         | corner of the world, and that's worthwhile in and of itself.
        
           | ehnto wrote:
           | That's similar to advice I received from a raptor
           | conservationist. More native foliage in suburbia means more
           | bees and bugs, more bugs means more birds. They suggested a
           | water bath and some native plants in your yard can go a long
           | way to supporting the native wildlife the you may not even
           | realize is in your area, until they have reason to stop by.
        
         | kornhole wrote:
         | If you have a yard in the right area, plant milkweed. I have at
         | least 10 plants in my yard. I enjoy watching the little guys
         | munching away until they suddenly dart off to the vines to
         | cocoon.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | Plant an oak tree in your yard and a variety of flowers that
         | attract pollinators in your garden (and specifically milk weed
         | for monarchs)
         | 
         | Oak trees build ecosystems because an unusually large number of
         | species of insect and birds use them and what feeds on them for
         | food.
        
         | Tiktaalik wrote:
         | Plant butterfly friendly flowers. Vote for the politicians most
         | aggressive on environmental issues.
        
       | sdoering wrote:
       | I only know Monarch Butterflies from documentaries.
       | 
       | Sad that I will probably not be able to witness it with my own
       | eyes.
        
         | pastor_bob wrote:
         | These are only the _migratory_ population.
         | 
         | I always thought they were all migratory, but I guess some
         | populations stick around in areas and aren't in as much danger.
         | 
         | I see them not infrequently on the East Coast.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | There's a lot of lookalike butterflies though
        
           | corrral wrote:
           | I was always told the ones in Kansas were going to/from
           | Mexico on this migration, but I gather from Wikipedia that
           | that was all actually happening much farther West, and ours
           | weren't the migratory kind.
        
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