[HN Gopher] What happens when a reservoir goes dry
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       What happens when a reservoir goes dry
        
       Author : chmaynard
       Score  : 119 points
       Date   : 2022-07-19 19:10 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
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       | afc wrote:
       | > But, I'm explaining all this to clarify one salient point: an
       | empty reservoir isn't necessarily a bad thing.
       | 
       | Well, yeah, just like an empty battery isn't necessarily a bad
       | thing; it means it has been used, which is probably better than
       | having prevented it from being used, but ... still worrying, in
       | the sense of having ran out of storage/capacity. Not very
       | convinced of this point.
        
       | woutersf wrote:
       | Roman aquaducts come to mind
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | Paris still gets about 15% of its water through an "aqueduct"
         | 100km away:
         | 
         | https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aqueduc_de_l%27Avre
         | 
         | (Can't find an English copy so you'll have to machine
         | translate)
        
       | namecheapTA wrote:
       | For a lot of people that live in waterless areas, I have a
       | feeling they also drive a lot. I personally use several gallons
       | of gasoline a day. Think of how hard that gasoline is to get to
       | me. It would be trivial to get me a 2 gallons of water a day to
       | live no matter how large the desert I live in is.
       | 
       | As long as food production is taken care of where water is,
       | getting people drinking water is pretty easy.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | Would you like to pay $4.50 per gallon of water?
        
       | elmer007 wrote:
       | This is the first time I've seen his blog, but I've been watching
       | his videos on YouTube for a while.
       | 
       | My brain read the entire post in his voice, and I couldn't seem
       | to turn it off. What's interesting is that I felt like I
       | understood the post better, and I think it may be that I was
       | reading it slower, as if he were speaking it. He has a really
       | pleasant way of explaining things.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | PopAlongKid wrote:
       | TL;DR when a reservoir goes dry, people pay more to get water
       | from other sources.
       | 
       | "We don't so much run out as we just use more expensive ways to
       | get it. "
        
         | eloff wrote:
         | And subsidized or unsustainable usage like agriculture or lawns
         | may cease to make sense and go away.
        
         | falcrist wrote:
         | This applies to most natural resources including gas and oil.
         | 
         | There's never going to be a moment when we squeeze the last
         | drop of oil out of the Earth's crust. It's just going to keep
         | getting more expensive as we drain the easier sources and have
         | to look harder and drill deeper in more and more remote areas.
        
       | latchkey wrote:
       | I just did a two week long back country road campervan trip from
       | Tahoe down south through each of the forests... Stanislaus,
       | Yosemite, Sierra, Kings, Sequoia. It was amazing boondocking in
       | the middle of nowhere, no cell signal and taking baths in what is
       | left of the rivers and lakes...
       | 
       | Once you get past Yosemite, pretty much all of the reservoirs are
       | empty to less than half full. Majority of the streams are gone.
       | 
       | It gets worse the further you head south. Kings and Sequoia are
       | pretty much decimated forests from the fires and beetles. Dead
       | trees for as far as you can see. Given the lack of water, I
       | expect them to be desert in just a few more years.
       | 
       | There are quite a few hydro power generation stations deep in the
       | mountains that I had no idea existed. I suspect they will close
       | down as well. I wonder what effect that will have on California
       | power supply over the coming years. That said, it was pretty
       | clear that PG&E is working on updating the infrastructure as they
       | are all over the place working on things.
       | 
       | If I hadn't seen it for myself, I wouldn't believe it. The extent
       | of damage is pretty massive and it would take quite a lot of rain
       | to 'fix' things. So much so that it would probably end up just
       | flooding everything, creating just as much of a mess.
        
         | DoneWithAllThat wrote:
         | This is straight up hyperbole. No, those areas are not going to
         | deserts in the next few years, or even our lifetimes.
        
           | latchkey wrote:
           | I'm not saying all of the areas I went through are going to
           | desert... but if you look at the extent of the damaged areas,
           | I doubt that you're going to see the same forests come back
           | again in our lifetimes. Take a look at the Pine Ridge area.
           | As far as the eye can see, everything is gone. Driving
           | through Sequoia, huge swaths of the trees are gone. It is
           | 100+ degrees in the summers and no water...
        
       | spike021 wrote:
       | I have no context on this kind of thing, but we have oil
       | pipelines, is there a reason we can't use water pipelines from
       | areas with drastically more rainfall and just transport said
       | water to scarcer areas?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | klodolph wrote:
         | We already do this. Consider Las Vegas... its water comes from
         | the Colorado River. (Edit: to be clear, the Colorado River
         | itself is transporting water from areas with high rainfall to
         | areas with low rainfall. The Las Vegas area is a desert, but
         | most of the Colorado River basin is not.)
         | 
         | It's just not generally done over long distances. Oil is pumped
         | over long distances, but it's also much more valuable. For
         | water, we rely more on cheaper ways of transporting it, and
         | transporting it over shorter distances, using things like
         | aqueducts and, yes, pipelines.
         | 
         | Here's an example of a big water pipeline project:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus_Water_Supply_P...
        
           | MooMooMilkParty wrote:
           | Just adding to this, not far south of Las Vegas the Central
           | Arizona Project is a rather large canal (so not exactly a
           | pipeline but close enough) which transports Colorado River
           | water to Phoenix and Tucson.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Arizona_Project
        
         | khuey wrote:
         | We do this in some cases, but in general oil is expensive and
         | water is cheap. A gallon of crude oil costs around $2.50. A
         | gallon of tap water costs a little over a penny where I live
         | (in San Francisco). Transporting expensive things is an easier
         | sell than transporting cheap things.
        
         | pilom wrote:
         | We already do this. In Colorado there are over 50 "Transbasin
         | Diversions" that move water from one river basin to another.
         | Most of them transfer water out of the Colorado River Basin to
         | the east side of the continental divide, usually the Arkansas
         | River or South Platte River Basins. California also does this
         | on a vast scale to move water from the wetter north to the
         | drier south parts of that state.
         | 
         | There are many issues with transporting large quantities of
         | water vast distances. From legal (it is illegal to transport
         | water from the Great Lakes to outside of their basin), to
         | physics (water is expensive to pump up and over mountain ranges
         | and building tunnels is incredibly expensive.
         | 
         | Basically, just like there are only so many places that it is
         | cost effective to build dams or pumped hydro electricity
         | storage, there are only so many places that it is cost
         | effective to build pipelines.
        
       | la64710 wrote:
       | So what next? It is amazing how little resources we are devoting
       | to solve the existential problem of water scarcity that is even
       | now happening almost everywhere around the world. Maybe we won't
       | realize until it suddenly hit us? I hope I am wrong.
        
         | pilom wrote:
         | "Buy and dry" is the default outcome. Cities buy the farms
         | nearby, use the farms' water rights and let the fields go dry.
         | Agriculture uses 60-90% of the water in the west depending on
         | river basin. Cities can afford MUCH higher rates per gallon for
         | water than farmers can so the cities will eventually just buy
         | out the farmers if nothing changes. I have no worries about
         | Denver or Las Vegas or LA running out of water. There just
         | might not be water intensive crops grown out west anymore.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
         | > the existential problem of water scarcity
         | 
         | Basically, everything is an energy problem. If we have cheap,
         | clean, energy, we can solve a lot of our problems.
         | 
         | For example, if we had nuclear powered desalination plants, we
         | could have more than enough fresh water.
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | > Basically, everything is an energy problem
           | 
           | Yes, and in the vast majority of cases the easiest way to
           | solve an energy problem is to use less energy rather than
           | produce more. This applies to water (where it's much easier
           | to use it where it naturally rains), transportation,
           | heating/cooling, etc, etc.
        
           | bell-cot wrote:
           | Except that, in today's world, everything is basically a
           | NIMBY problem...
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | Humanity will ignore its existential problems until existence
         | becomes immediately threatened.
        
           | tejohnso wrote:
           | Unfortunately humanity as a whole isn't immediately
           | threatened until smaller pockets have already lost habitat.
           | 
           | And by the time all of humanity is immediately threatened
           | it's too late to save it.
        
         | trophycase wrote:
         | It's not an existential problem so much as a political problem.
         | We can literally always boil water. The planet is 70% water and
         | it's not going anywhere or getting converted into other things.
        
           | paulryanrogers wrote:
           | Boiling requires energy and doesn't remove the salt. Cleaning
           | polluted water can be even more energy intensive. So it is
           | getting converted from fresh water into polluted water, all
           | the time.
        
         | wvenable wrote:
         | We're paralyzed by the fear of doing something. What if we do
         | something unnecessary? What if we do something but it makes
         | things worse? What if do something but it costs too much?
         | 
         | I'm almost positive we (humans) won't do anything until there
         | is absolutely no other choice but to do something.
        
           | snoopy_telex wrote:
           | Americans^wHumans can always be counted on to do the right
           | thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
        
         | lurquer wrote:
         | Who is this 'We' of whom you speak?
         | 
         | While 'you' may not be devoting time and money towards this
         | problem, rest assured that 'They' are.
         | 
         | There is plenty of water. The methods of distributing it vary
         | across the decades and centuries. But, it gets done. By people
         | 'we' hire through 'our' taxes and water bills to do it.
         | 
         | At any given time, there are reservoirs being planned, water
         | rights being negotiated, drills being sunk, pipelines being
         | laid, etc. It gets done. It always gets done. If people wish to
         | live in a desert, they'll get water one way or the other. If it
         | gets too expensive, they'll move. No big deal.
        
       | Overtonwindow wrote:
       | "Engineers and planners don't actually know what the worst case
       | scenario drought will be over the lifetime of a reservoir."
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | We're well on our way to finding out. One of the transformers
         | on the Hoover Dam blew up this morning; no interruption to
         | water or electrical output, but a troubling reminder of the
         | possibilities.
        
         | Victerius wrote:
         | Hmmm, total depletion, Aral Sea style? Why isn't that the worst
         | case scenario?
        
           | pitaj wrote:
           | I think you misunderstood.
           | 
           | That quote is saying that planners have no way of actually
           | predicting how bad the worst possible drought will be for the
           | area serviced by the reservoir over the lifetime of the
           | reservoir, so they can't actually design the reservoir to
           | handle the worst-case scenario.
        
           | ziddoap wrote:
           | Worst-case _drought_ , as in, for how long. Not the worst-
           | case scenario for the reservoir.
           | 
           | If they knew the worst-case drought possible would last N
           | days, they could design the reservoir to hold N+1 days worth
           | of water. Alas, they don't know N.
           | 
           | Edit: Near end of day... Can you tell? Wrote draught instead
           | of drought.
        
             | Terr_ wrote:
             | > Near end of day... Can you tell? Wrote draught instead of
             | drought.
             | 
             | Just before your edit, I spent a while amused at the vision
             | of some guy trying to chug the entire reservoir while being
             | egged-on by inebriated friends.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Why didn't they build it with 3001 hulls!
        
               | MegaButts wrote:
               | What a wonderful reference.
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/xJxwvZ5SE_c
        
       | airza wrote:
       | >Eventually, irrigated farming in Arizona and Nevada may become a
       | thing of the past.
       | 
       | Why is there irrigated farming in Arizona?? It's a desert!
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | Because too many water rights were assigned 100 years ago, and
         | if the farmers stop using it, they'll lose the water rights. So
         | they grow alfalfa in the desert to use up the water so they can
         | keep the water rights.
        
           | capableweb wrote:
           | I'm guessing this is the source for that:
           | https://youtu.be/jtxew5XUVbQ?t=512
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | I mean, that is a source, but it was pretty well reported
             | before that.
             | 
             | Although I thought they assigned too many water rights
             | because they measured in a period of flooding. John Oliver
             | is the first time I heard that they knew it was a lie at
             | the time.
        
             | apcragg wrote:
             | Marc Reisner's book Cadillac Desert talked about this as
             | far back as 1986.
        
         | imoverclocked wrote:
         | Their soil is extremely fertile. You can grow just about
         | anything, even cotton, given enough water.
         | 
         | Edit: grammar
        
           | mikewave wrote:
           | Sounds like they should just start digging up and selling the
           | soil, no?
        
             | moralestapia wrote:
             | If you didn't meant this as sarcasm, this is pretty much
             | the worse thing you could do.
        
               | mikewave wrote:
               | I'm no farmer, but I'm all ears! If you have dry useless
               | soil and can't water it, does it not have some residual
               | value as an export product?
               | 
               | I suppose this is assuming that there's not going to be
               | water in the future, and that you just want to extract
               | whatever use there is left from an area before giving it
               | over to desertification.
        
               | moralestapia wrote:
               | Soil, and topsoil in particular, is an extremely valuable
               | and non-renewable resource. When land becomes barren it
               | could take 100s of years to regenerate, or it may never
               | do, as in this case this is a desert and for this process
               | to happen you need a continuous stream of biomass and
               | microbes doing their stuff.
               | 
               | If they did this, in a couple years they still wouldn't
               | have water, and now they'd also wouldn't have land to
               | pour the water onto, so they will end up in an ever worse
               | state than now.
        
               | stewarts wrote:
               | While not worthless, as there would still be nutrients
               | present. A good bit of soil quality comes from the
               | microorganisms within it.
        
             | lovich wrote:
             | Soil is a complex ecosystem, digging into it, or worse
             | excavating it, removes a lot of the value
        
         | lesuorac wrote:
         | I suspect at some point it'd make more sense to pump (hopefully
         | via gravity) water to a location and farm then it would to
         | transport food.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | irrational wrote:
         | Why is there a large city (las Vegas) in the middle of a
         | desert?
        
           | cardiffspaceman wrote:
           | Because there was a little town in the middle of the desert,
           | and it got popular.
        
             | TylerE wrote:
             | This is a fairly recently development too.. in 1940 it had
             | a population of only 8000.
        
       | crikeyjoe wrote:
        
       | pitched wrote:
       | Reminds me of the engineering twist on "glass half full" as
       | "glass is twice as large as it needs to be". Here's hoping it
       | wasn't built too small though.
        
       | conductr wrote:
       | > Why build it so big if you're not going to use the stored water
       | during periods of drought? Storage is the whole point of the
       | thing... except there's one more thing to discuss: Engineers and
       | planners don't actually know what the worst case scenario drought
       | will be over the lifetime of a reservoir.
       | 
       | In regards to Lake Mead, perhaps others, the size and keeping it
       | near full affords you time to find an alternative supply or some
       | other solution that is undeterminable at concept/construction.
        
         | TylerE wrote:
         | That time is gone though... Lake Mead was last full in 1983,
         | and has been steadily declining since... it's now at about a
         | quarter of peak capacity.
        
           | conductr wrote:
           | I don't think the original engineer's would have anticipated
           | the level of inaction that's occurred. Same goes for ability
           | to build/delays/regulation
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | "Let's use the safety buffers provided by the original
             | designers to ignore the problem as long as we can" has been
             | our national infrastructure plan so far this century.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Too busy arguing about abortion and what bathroom someone
               | is allowed to use, whether someone is racist or
               | communist, and if it's even possible for the government
               | to do useful things or if private enterprise should run
               | society.
               | 
               | I don't see that changing anytime soon. We'll just look
               | the other way while infrastructure crumbles around us,
               | and then point fingers blaming each other for failing to
               | notice.
        
       | labrador wrote:
       | Someone important to me, who I love but watches a lot of Fox News
       | always gives me the party line on this issue.
       | 
       | According to them, it's the fault of little fish we are trying to
       | keep from going extinct by supplying it with precious freshwater.
       | This is after far left environmentalists took over the Democrat
       | party. Oh, and climate change is a hoax. This is just a normal
       | drought.
       | 
       | I think it's actually a failure of political leadership. I'm not
       | saying it's easy to get multiple states to respond to a crisis,
       | but as long as it doesn't happen people continue to use water as
       | they did before.
        
       | jameshart wrote:
       | If you're the kind of person who learned orbital mechanismcs
       | through Kerbal Space Program and deepened you understanding of
       | backpressure and supply chains with Factorio, and you are looking
       | for a similar way to get a deeper feel for water resource
       | management, can I suggest taking a look at Timberborn, the post-
       | apocalyptic beaver simulator. You have to figure out how to
       | engineer a reliable water supply in the face of epic dry season
       | droughts.
        
         | jfim wrote:
         | How playable is it? It seems that there are many complaints
         | about the district system and the beaver AI being not so
         | bright.
        
           | jameshart wrote:
           | All part of what makes it an accurate simulation of
           | Californian water management.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | The wild political madness involved in the grand project to water
       | the American West is detailed in Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert"
       | (1986), and is a must-read for anyone wanting to understand the
       | current situation. It was written before a climate-related
       | megadrought was really on anyone's long-term radar, but it really
       | explains a lot.
       | 
       | For example, dams are only part of the water storage picture,
       | there's also groundwater, and the water projects often had the
       | goal of protecting groundwater (keeping the water table closer to
       | the surface), but then once they'd provided water via a dam or
       | aquaduct, the farmers would just expand the areas they were
       | farming and groundwater extraction would often increase as a side
       | effect.
       | 
       | Humans really aren't that good at long-term planning, is one
       | conclusion.
        
         | MooMooMilkParty wrote:
         | Also worth reading, and considerably more up to date, is
         | Science Be Dammed.
         | 
         | https://uapress.arizona.edu/book/science-be-dammed
        
         | atoav wrote:
         | > Humans really aren't that good at long-term planning, is one
         | conclusion.
         | 
         | Especially not within a system that gives you cool prizes if
         | you don't.
        
         | knodi123 wrote:
         | In the science fiction novel "The Water Knife" by Paolo
         | Bacigalupi, characters are always name dropping "Cadillac
         | Desert" and talking about how prophetic and what a must-read it
         | is.
         | 
         | Just as an aside.
        
         | ianai wrote:
         | And this is a pretty funny/wild take on how water rights can
         | play out in the US Southwest (Milagro beanfield war). All too
         | true to life.
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Milagro_Beanfield_War_(n...
        
         | dqh wrote:
         | > Humans really aren't that good at long-term planning, is one
         | conclusion.
         | 
         | I think the problem is long-term co-operation rather than
         | planning. The temptation of short-term gain is always too great
         | for someone.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Humans are actually pretty good at long term planning. What
         | we're not good at is solving externalities. The problem with
         | water usage is that we haven't created a system that aligns
         | incentives with our goals. Why would any farmer conserve water
         | when they think the farm next door isn't? Since water is a
         | shared resource if you don't use it someone else will.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | Yeah we need to ditch the legacy water allocation methods and
           | meter everyone. Then we can just jack up the price as
           | necessary.
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | It's fun to imagine an alternate species that can plan
         | practically for the future. Even a simple rule or two... like
         | "don't put cities in inhospitable places" would be
         | transformative. We've got plenty of room in places that aren't
         | completely barren and devoid of water, though these pesky (and
         | mostly imaginary) borders often manage to get in the way.
        
       | irrational wrote:
       | I live in an area that gets a lot of rain during 9 months of the
       | year (and this past spring was the wettest spring in memory - it
       | just wouldn't stop raining hard. The local rivers even reached
       | low flood stage.) So, my initial thought is our rates probably
       | won't go up. So we are fine. But reading this article I realized
       | that what will go up is food prices. The prices have already gone
       | up, but will probably go up a lot more.
        
       | lloydatkinson wrote:
       | Really enjoy his posts and videos. I'm waiting for his book to be
       | released.
        
         | capableweb wrote:
         | Grady have been doing a great job since day 0 with his videos,
         | I'm so glad to see him working on publishing a book now, and
         | that the quality of the videos are getting better and better
         | too!
        
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