[HN Gopher] Logistics Collapse
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       Logistics Collapse
        
       Author : mpweiher
       Score  : 42 points
       Date   : 2022-07-19 12:41 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (nadinbrzezinski.medium.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (nadinbrzezinski.medium.com)
        
       | jonnycomputer wrote:
       | Some relevant twitter threads (pointed to nitter so you don't
       | have to log in)
       | 
       | https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1544472452373389312#m
       | 
       | https://nitter.net/Warinthe.../status/1546968367315111936...
       | 
       | https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210#m
        
       | MichaelZuo wrote:
       | Sounds a bit too good to be true.
       | 
       | Corruption in the military depots leading to overinflated reports
       | of readiness, that I can believe.
       | 
       | Shortage of serviceable vehicles, shells, gun barrels, etc.,
       | leading to Moscow just giving up and rolling over seems too
       | implausible.
       | 
       | Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect
       | defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to
       | throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or
       | willingness to suffer massive losses.
       | 
       | A lot of analysts believe that the most likely outcome will be
       | some sort of Korean scenario, which I find to be more credible.
        
         | _kbh_ wrote:
         | > Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect
         | defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to
         | throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or
         | willingness to suffer massive losses.
         | 
         | I think the likely scenario here is that Ukraine is looking to
         | starve Russia of ammo by destroying a lot of their ammo depots
         | and command posts. Ukraine can use the same weapons they use to
         | do that to also hit defensive positions, without any counter
         | fire.
        
       | kn0where wrote:
       | So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what stops
       | Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air strikes
       | indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate?
        
         | nickff wrote:
         | Air strikes have a poor record of causing capitulation, even
         | when well-targeted against a nearly defenseless enemy. In the
         | case of this conflict, Russia has not achieved air dominance,
         | and appears reluctant to commit more stand-off weapons.
        
         | _kbh_ wrote:
         | > So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what
         | stops Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air
         | strikes indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate?
         | 
         | Well for one Ukraine is receiving more anti air which will
         | allow them to shoot down a lot more of the missiles. It likely
         | won't get all of them but if it gets most it'll be a lot
         | better.
        
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       (page generated 2022-07-19 23:02 UTC)