[HN Gopher] Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest
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Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest
Author : rntn
Score : 85 points
Date : 2022-07-15 20:05 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.bbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.bbc.com)
| post_break wrote:
| I bet John Deere knows all this as well since their tractors can
| provided that data right back to them. Scary to think your
| tractor letting them know when to time food stocks, fertilizer,
| etc or just sell the data to third parties.
| thriftwy wrote:
| I don't think Belarus or Rostselmash tractors produce too much
| data for John Deere (you will never know, though).
| dave84 wrote:
| I've been reading way too much Scifi lately and interpreted this
| headline differently than intended.
| baxtr wrote:
| What did you read? Any recommendations? Yearning for quality
| sci-fi...
| trhway wrote:
| To me it seems that we're coming at the peak heat of 88 year
| cycle (and that is on top of the global warming base trend) and
| thus droughts and a lot of similarities to the 1930's. (as a
| cherry on top the surprising coincidence of political situation -
| a fascist regime wanting to expand its living space into the same
| vast agricultural areas of Ukraine, as well as an actively
| industrializing empire in the Far East having great hunger for
| the resources and territories of its neighbors).
| Swizec wrote:
| > surprising coincidence of political situation
|
| Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
|
| Even in middle school history class we were taught that the
| 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the
| economic downturn that preceded it. And that the French
| Revolution never would've happened without huge inequalities.
|
| Now this may have been socialist propaganda (middle school was
| ~6 years after Yugoslavia), but a lot of it rings true.
| trhway wrote:
| >Even in middle school history class we were taught that the
| 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the
| economic downturn that preceded it.
|
| The rise of the today's Russian fascism has followed exactly
| the same path as in Germany back then - a lost war
| (Afghanistan and Cold War) resulting in the crash of empire
| followed by a decade of economic hardship resulting in the
| rise of a "strong man" regime with all the same trappings of
| revanchism, "master nation" ideology, total suppression of
| basic liberties and democratic institutions, etc. (even the
| triggers used by the regime to grab the total governmental
| power are very similar - Reichstag fire in Germany and the
| FSB bombing of apartment buildings in 1999.) And so far we've
| had annexation of Crimea being extremely similar to the
| annexation of Sudetenlend back then, and the current stage -
| Ukraine invasion - is the start of the actual implementation
| of Lebensraum (Polish invasion back then) - last time it led
| directly to WWII, and i don't see how we can cheat the
| historic logic this time.
| vkou wrote:
| So, if Russia's 90% of the way there, are we in the US ~75%
| of the way there? The main thing we're missing from that
| list is the false flag attacks, the other boxes check off.
| terr-dav wrote:
| Aside from the loss of the Cold War, what you're describing
| sounds a lot like the United States.
| rdl wrote:
| OK, substitute Iraq War and Afghanistan War for the US
| then :)
| irthomasthomas wrote:
| Most famines of the post industrial era have been man-made.
| Sure, droughts are natural, but allowing people to starve is
| a choice.
| Swizec wrote:
| I'm using empty stomachs figuratively here. You don't need
| an actual famine to enable the rise of fascism.
|
| And it isn't always fascist authoritarianism either. 1910's
| Russia and 1930's China got the communist kind. 1940's
| Balkans got both kinds, but communists won the civil war.
| ClumsyPilot wrote:
| If things continue the way they are going, 2030's could be as
| eventfull as 1930's
| delecti wrote:
| There's a decent chance of the 2020s being as eventful as the
| 1930s. The 2030s could be even worse.
| wolverine876 wrote:
| If only we could have predicted the heat, the impact on food
| supplies, and the impact of that on political stability. Will the
| deniers be held responsible? Will they pay a cost? If not, why
| would they stop?
| jamesash wrote:
| Backward rather than forward-looking, so slightly off topic, but
| for a high-level understanding of US crop production, nothing
| beats the US Crop Production 2021 summary. [Here -
| https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/...]
|
| Skip the first 92 pages and go straight to 93-96 which give a
| total rundown of all US crop acreage and production, from corn
| and soybeans down to maple syrup and peppermint oil. Continue
| with page 97 which has a complete month-by-month rundown on US
| weather with comments on impact on specific crops.
|
| Comprehensive.
| akamoonknight wrote:
| Definitely some interesting info. Has this been produced for
| previous years? I'm intrigued how the sentiment in the weather
| highlights might have changed over time.
| tablespoon wrote:
| > Definitely some interesting info. Has this been produced
| for previous years? I'm intrigued how the sentiment in the
| weather highlights might have changed over time.
|
| I would imagine so. Something like this was a key part of the
| plot to the 80s comedy movie _Trading Places_.
| akamoonknight wrote:
| Ah makes sense it'd be something that would be useful to
| track and then provides information that people can
| arbitrage.
|
| I had tried some initial URL hacking that didn't work, but
| think I found the set here: https://usda.library.cornell.ed
| u/concern/publications/k35694...
| earleybird wrote:
| +1 for Eddie Murphy explaining the futures market :-)
|
| and also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySxHud7abko
| greggsy wrote:
| Are there any periodic reports like this that tie together crop
| production and fertiliser use?
| killjoywashere wrote:
| This is a good comment.
| jeromenerf wrote:
| Hey, I did that satellite productions a bit less than 20 years
| ago. The article doesn't talk about this though.
|
| GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe,
| weather and market data and where able to model the date and
| volume of crop to enter the market. Fact being that we can get an
| indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance,
| thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-
| normalized-difference-vegetati... I guess when can train better
| models nowadays.
|
| In the end, these estimations allowed for... drum roll...
| speculation.
| wolverine876 wrote:
| > In the end, these estimations allowed for... drum roll...
| speculation.
|
| What are you claiming? That the research in the OP is
| worthless? That seems offhand and reckless, and an attempt to
| join the anti-science bandwagon. Billions of people depend on
| such research.
| quickthrowman wrote:
| What on earth are you talking about? They're referring to
| satellite crop data enabling _financial speculation_ using
| instruments like commodity futures and futures options. The
| data referred to by the BBC was collected by private
| companies who almost certainly have CTAs [0] and hedge funds
| as customers.
|
| [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_trading_advisor
| [deleted]
| camkego wrote:
| I believe he is claiming you might be able to make money
| doing financial commodities speculation, ie, buying wheat
| contracts at CBOT.
| MonkeyMalarky wrote:
| Perhaps OP means speculation as in people exploiting the data
| to make money from commodity futures?
| polartx wrote:
| Unless we learn otherwise, (as I think at HN we can generally
| assume users are who they say they are), it sounds like the
| OP has experience and expertise in exactly what the article
| is describing. As much as we might want to believe in the
| merits of certain endeavors, there is something to be
| ~~said~~ heard from those that have been there, and tried
| that.
|
| Kinda reminds me of the stigma shown towards all the Theranos
| naysayers that insisted that it was impossible to do so much
| testing with so little blood!
| dghlsakjg wrote:
| Satellite imaging is great for when you don't have accurate
| reports on the ground. However, in many areas (certainly all
| of North America) we already have a very good indication of
| how crops are faring. Professionals walking through the
| fields every day are, no surprise, pretty good at knowing
| what's going on with a crop that determines their livelihood.
|
| Go look at the article. They talk to a farmer that knows
| perfectly well that the wheat harvest is going to suck
| without looking at a single satellite photo. I don't know
| about the french gov, but I strongly suspect they issue very
| detailed reports about current conditions and outlooks just
| like the US. There is trillions of dollars at stake.
|
| What we don't have is accurate weather forecasts past 5-10
| days in the future. Your crop might be doing great until a
| single weather event wipes the whole thing out, and there is
| nothing you can do about it. This happens ALL THE TIME. You
| can look at 12 hr old satellite photos and say, "Wow! This
| crop is looking very healthy". Meanwhile the farmer on the
| ground is looking at a bunch of plants that just got
| destroyed by too much rain/frost/wind/heat.
|
| Its not that they're being anti-science, its that this isn't
| a new idea, and probably doesn't expose information that the
| experts didn't already know.
| xattt wrote:
| He is claiming that food and crops are being monetized the
| same way speculators turf on other necessary things like
| housing.
| Rebelgecko wrote:
| I think it's a pun. In addition to the meaning of "to be
| curious about", speculation can also refer to certain types
| of financial transactions... especially those that would take
| into account foreknowledge of crop yields.
| _jal wrote:
| How do you even get to "anti-science" from using GIS for
| investing?
|
| I'd say people are getting way too twitchy with their witch
| hunts, but I don't even see how you get from here to there.
| Just bizarre, and worrisome.
| rootsudo wrote:
| That must be fun data intelligence for markets, I wonder how
| insurance and futures work w/ GIS data.
|
| I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that
| insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I
| thought it was all interesting.
|
| Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are
| payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss
| makes sense, but I didn't think it was that _big_ of a market.
| [deleted]
| 99_00 wrote:
| When rhetoric and propaganda meet reality.
| causality0 wrote:
| What? Every comment I've heard in the last six months has been
| sounding the alarm for famine.
| 99_00 wrote:
| Russian economy on brink of collapse.
|
| Russian army is losing.
|
| Ghost of Kieve.
|
| Putin is unhinged.
|
| NATO more United than ever
|
| That's the propaganda and rehtoric.
|
| Ukraine was yet another massive failure from the ruling
| elite.
|
| Their attempted fix, extreme sanctions has made things
| worse... for us and many millions of people in the world.
|
| Reality is catching up to the propaganda. I have no idea why
| generation after generation keeps calling for it and going on
| these disastrous adventures.
| mrtesthah wrote:
| It's not propaganda that Russia has controlled the south of
| Ukraine from Crimea to Donbass and therefore has been able
| to block grain shipments from one of the largest wheat
| producers in the world.
| melony wrote:
| If you want accurate pricing, keep am eye on the futures
| markets. Using satellites to predict harvests has been used
| by Wall Street since forever.
| ccbccccbbcccbb wrote:
| ccbccccbbcccbb wrote:
| phailhaus wrote:
| so brave
| ccbccccbbcccbb wrote:
| indeed
| SenpaiHurricane wrote:
| https://tarla.io/eng/index.html
| myshpa wrote:
| If we want rain & stable climate, we need to plant more trees /
| forests (see bionic pump, natural farming, forest gardens,
| atmospheric rivers, ...). As mr. Fukuoka says, rain comes not
| from earth/sky, but from the plants.
|
| We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk
| and significantly reduce our (egregious) meat consumption. Then
| we could reforest upto 75% of our fields and it would sure help
| repair the water cycle / climate instability (among other good
| things).
|
| If we don't do it, things will get so bad, even west will weep.
| Good news - it's something even we as individuals can influence.
| Simply choose plant based food when you can, and help reduce our
| agricultural impact.
|
| Btw, our fields are not nature - we have too many of them, they
| are in fact green deserts, it's all deforested land, they don't
| influence the weather / water cycle in a good way, they destroy
| biodiversity, they poison everything, even most people have
| pesticides in their bodies. Our current agricultural / dietary
| practices are killing the earth.
|
| Sorry, need sleep, so no sources, but somebody has to say it -
| study it yourself.
|
| Edit: wow, 2 downvotes in less than 1 minute. Let it rain, burger
| chompers ;)
| jl6 wrote:
| It would be good to see the same analysis for other crops that
| might be needed to substitute for wheat this year.
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