[HN Gopher] Why don't we have a strategy?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Why don't we have a strategy?
        
       Author : jger15
       Score  : 151 points
       Date   : 2022-07-14 11:20 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (cutlefish.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (cutlefish.substack.com)
        
       | divan wrote:
       | > The problem is that there are disincentives to thinking
       | strategically.
       | 
       | To me the problem was that nobody around could even explain what
       | does it mean. It's such a vague word nowadays, and even when you
       | really want to craft a strategy for your organization, you end up
       | watching videos telling you to outline your values, write a
       | mission statement and set SMART goals.
       | 
       | Thanks to some coments on HN I've read "Good strategy/bad
       | strategy" book, and a lot of things finally clicked. It gave a
       | solid framework how to approach and how to think about strategy.
       | Can't praise this book enough. I wish I was given this book at
       | school.
       | 
       | Back to the original thought - I think the problem is that we
       | rarely see or hear what strategy really is about, let alone have
       | a chance to learn how to "think strategically" for real. It's
       | purely an education issue from my point of view.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | The question is around scope, if you are building a strategy
         | for yourself or your team - set smart goals. If you are
         | building a strategy for an organization, then set KPIs. If you
         | are building a strategy for a 100+ person organization, then
         | you talk about vision.
        
           | divan wrote:
           | That's what I'm talking about - explanations like yours are
           | abundant (no offence).
           | 
           | Following your advice, let's say I set SMART goal for myself
           | - "Increase number of books I read per month to 10 by the end
           | of the year". It's specific, measurable, achievable, relevant
           | and time-bound". It's still a goal, not a strategy.
        
       | heymijo wrote:
       | Any time strategy comes up I chuckle because it's Groundhog Day.
       | Strategy discussions sometimes have no definition, sometimes lots
       | of definitions, but never a shared definition.
       | 
       | Strategy is conflated with vision or mission. People use the word
       | as a noun, an adverb, and an adjective and all the while talking
       | past each other.
       | 
       | Its use across domains, history, and context all with different
       | meanings make it rife for misunderstanding.
        
         | danielmarkbruce wrote:
         | The lack of shared definition is the thing.
        
       | splittingTimes wrote:
       | I am always missing good, positive examples of what are and _are
       | not_ "Goals", "Stratgies", "Missions", "Visions", "Key Results"
       | etc in those articles. And where to start from and where to go?
       | 
       | What is a goal?
       | 
       | "Win in the market place" or "Become profitable" No, that is not
       | a real goal. That is pure business survival.
       | 
       | "Increase market share by %X." or "Grow our portefolio to enter
       | the premium segment" That sounds more like a goal to me.
       | 
       | Then, agreed, a strategy is how you do that. Those layers are
       | really important and who has ownership of those layers. For
       | example, to me the lowest layer are concrete "actions". Those are
       | better defined from the workers that are close to the production
       | and less from management. A higher, more starting layer, are the
       | "guiding principles" the company will follow.
       | 
       | Example: "Grow portefolio". Two strategys how to do it. Either
       | "Grow by aquesitions" (whole companies or external expertise) or
       | you want to "Grow by in-house innovations". Those two "guiding
       | layer" strategies will lead to wildly different action layers.
        
         | laichzeit0 wrote:
         | As Marc Andreessen said in a recent Joe Rogan podcast the goal
         | of vision is to "form and reinforce the cult". You need to
         | trick employees into believing in something. Cults and cult
         | leaders are exceptional examples for corporations to learn
         | from.
        
       | dgb23 wrote:
       | The quote from Richard Rumelt:
       | 
       | > "A good strategy includes a set of coherent actions. They are
       | not "implementation" details; they are the punch in the strategy.
       | A strategy that fails to define a variety of plausible and
       | feasible immediate actions is missing a critical component."
       | 
       | Hints at something important. It is also assertive and
       | convincing, dangerously so. Note that Rumelt is apparently smart
       | and influential but also an academic.
       | 
       | The good part is that strategy is layered and gradual. There's
       | probably no clear semantic line where strategy stops and
       | operations or tactics start. The thing he criticizes here is a
       | strategy that is too vague and incomplete.
       | 
       | The bad part is that he seems to fall into a very typical trap.
       | The more concrete and detailed a strategy is, the more it bleeds
       | into decisions that should not be made top down. A strategy that
       | is too detailed fails to acknowledge the complexities of life and
       | it dangerously assumes two things: Thinkers are smarter than they
       | are, doers cannot make too many good ad-hoc decisions.
       | 
       | It might sound very good in the ears of some thinkers and
       | decision makers, because it inflates their ego. Be wary of that.
       | It's a red flag. It also sounds nice because seems to remove risk
       | and the human factor, with a perfect strategy, you might assume
       | that people are interchangeable. It's simply not the case.
       | 
       | A good strategy is simple and short enough so it can be taught in
       | less than one hour or so and understood by everyone. The most
       | efficient organizations, teams, armies, communities, groups etc.
       | that have proven to succeed under the most adversity, pretty much
       | all have rock solid, agreed upon core principles and plans that
       | everyone executes dynamically in a decentralized fashion.
       | 
       | Don't be fooled by 'too big to fail'-type oligopolies. They are
       | often past the point where they need to do anything more than
       | risk mitigation and value extraction. Anything else is just
       | keeping people busy. Look at how people survive or win 'against
       | all odds', especially if they can pull it off consistently and
       | over long periods of time.
        
       | pantulis wrote:
       | You cannot escape strategy. Not having a strategy _is_ a
       | strategy.
        
       | nostromo95 wrote:
       | > A high % of the people in your company primarily care about
       | vision, goals, and priorities. To them, that is a strategy.
       | 
       | Would be nice if the author defined what he thinks "strategy" is.
       | It's not obvious to me that the above is not strategy.
       | 
       | In general in business it seems the concept of strategy is
       | whatever people need it to be in order for them to feel smarter
       | than their coworkers.
        
       | drewcoo wrote:
       | "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are
       | useless, but planning is indispensable."
       | 
       | - Eisenhower, who, as Supreme Allied Commander and later
       | President of the US, was responsible for strategy.
       | 
       | https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/4083-in-preparing-for-battl...
        
       | LaundroMat wrote:
       | To me, this is too convoluted an explanation...
       | 
       | Strategy implies making choices and trade-offs. Most people are
       | afraid to be held accountable for making real choices (i.e.
       | steering the company/product in one direction and not any other).
       | 
       | That's why most strategies are only strategies by name: fluffy
       | statements that anyone can fill in as they wish ("our strategy is
       | to be our customers' partner") or monetary goals ("our strategy
       | is to be 20% more profitable by end of next year").
        
       | the_af wrote:
       | I realize that this is a minor nitpick and I'm taking it out of
       | context, but:
       | 
       | > _The theory goes that ideas are cheap, and execution is
       | everything._
       | 
       | This isn't wrong. In fact, it seems more right than wrong. All
       | people, all the time, think they have ideas, some even novel. Not
       | many can carry them out in practice.
       | 
       | I do agree with the article that the culture of celebrating
       | mindless productivity is mistaken.
        
         | Ensorceled wrote:
         | >> The theory goes that ideas are cheap, and execution is
         | everything.
         | 
         | > This isn't wrong. In fact, it seems more right than wrong.
         | 
         | I think the articles point is that somewhere between the
         | "cheap" ideas and execution there is a place for strategy that
         | is being neglected. Lots of people have ideas for social media
         | platforms and lots of people execute on them. Only a few of
         | the, often adhoc, strategies paid off and most have died.
        
           | the_af wrote:
           | Agreed, which is why I admitted the quote was taken out of
           | context.
        
         | tomlue wrote:
         | Mostly agree, but this position creates a sense of
         | helplessness. If all ideas are bad, then the idea doesn't
         | matter, and I shouldn't waste time evaluating ideas.
         | 
         | As an example, people w/ decades of experience in the domain of
         | your idea can sometimes quickly invalidate it. Years of life
         | can be saved by seeking that feedback, particularly when that
         | knowledge is difficult to obtain.
        
           | the_af wrote:
           | Totally. Note I don't think "all ideas are bad", it's just
           | that the actual execution is often more important, even for
           | good ideas.
           | 
           | The whole "1% inspiration, 99% perspiration" thing :)
        
             | pantulis wrote:
             | Or put another way: you can execute, with the highest
             | levels of excellence, a bad idea and fail the same.
        
         | danielmarkbruce wrote:
         | There a lots of startups who execute reasonably well against a
         | crappy idea.
         | 
         | Bad ideas are cheap. I'd argue that good ideas are rare and
         | usually expensive - they come from a deep understanding of a
         | confluence of things.
        
       | thenerdhead wrote:
       | A strategy is nothing more than repeated steps that provide you a
       | certain outcome. If you don't get the outcome you desire, you
       | change up your strategy until you do. Simple as that.
       | 
       | Good strategy / Bad strategy covers this a bit further in more
       | technical terms of a diagnosis, kernel, and coherent actions.
       | 
       | Everyone has a strategy, even if you don't think so. Being aware
       | and having enough clarity to communicate your strategy is another
       | thing entirely in which I think this article is trying to point
       | out.
       | 
       | It feels a bit meta to talk about not having a strategy if you
       | can't even define the word. Rumelt's definition is of a "good
       | strategy". You can have bad strategies or no strategies too! I
       | mean that was the other half of the book.
        
       | quirkot wrote:
       | An important point to add, I think, is that strategy is a set of
       | plans for a future that is different than the present. And that
       | is _hard_. Many people struggle with it, especially beyond the
       | task level. That 's why so much of "strategy" is hand waving
       | nonsense, because it is so difficult
        
         | datavirtue wrote:
         | The internal resistance to developing a strategy that you don't
         | have the power to execute can be overwhelming.
        
       | kriro wrote:
       | I always have interesting discussions during job interviews when
       | I answer the old "where do you see yourself in five years" or
       | when discussing my non-linear/standard career path. I'm a bit of
       | a fan of Mintzberg's view on strategy when it comes to career
       | "planning" and technology companies (I'd recommend his book "Rise
       | and Fall of Strategic Planning"). He uses a garden metaphor and
       | basically says let everything grow and trim the weeds and his
       | reasoning for this "dabble in different things" approach is that
       | in a turbulent world, precise planning is not really feasible.
       | It's basically more of a core competencies approach.
       | 
       | Different situations require different approaches. There's also
       | value in planning and tight operational execution in different
       | domains. For tech...I feel like some overall "vision" and rough
       | "roadmap" are good and then try different things and be quick to
       | market with new ideas and willing to adapt.
        
         | Archelaos wrote:
         | > Different situations require different approaches.
         | 
         | I very much agree. When it comes to developing a meaningful
         | strategy, this depends largely on the details of what is at
         | issue.
         | 
         | Imagine some really demanding business idea that could perhaps
         | be put into reality towards the end of this century, like
         | astroid mining or a hotel on the moon. Does it already make
         | sense to found a company, collect money and work on a strategy?
         | If there are too many moving targets or the goal is just too
         | large or too distant or demands too many ressources, there may
         | not exist a feasible strategy, no matter how hard we think
         | about one.
         | 
         | At the other end of the spectrum think of some boring, but
         | established business idea, like opening a restaurant or
         | starting an organic farm. In this case, there exist thousands
         | of role models to learn from. Success is not guaranteed, but
         | one does not need to re-invent the wheel to outline a strategy
         | and get started.
        
       | jackthetab wrote:
       | Interestingly enough -- well, to me, at least -- I came across
       | this introductory video[1] last night from HBR about the
       | differences between strategy and planning. It's piqued my
       | interest enough to look more into it.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuYlGRnC7J8&t=325s
        
         | rambambram wrote:
         | Thanks, that was educational to watch.
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | I'm a strategic thinker. I have been, almost my entire career. I
       | write software that lasts _decades_ , and have authored systems
       | that took ten years to mature.
       | 
       | The issue is that I have almost never been _allowed_ to express,
       | communicate, or implement my strategies.
       | 
       | "Strategic thinking" is an ego thing. Only "big bosses" are
       | "allowed" to "think strategically." If those of us, down in the
       | trenches, "dare" to think strategically, we're being "uppity."
       | 
       | What a nightmare. At my last company, I foresaw the problems that
       | eventually resulted in the company falling down (and my team
       | being made redundant), at least a decade in advance. I remember
       | being called a "Cassandra," and also being told that it "wasn't
       | specific enough."
       | 
       | For example, when the iPhone first came out, I borrowed one of my
       | employees' new iPhone, and took it up to Marketing. I said "This
       | is gonna be trouble."
       | 
       | I was laughed out of the office.
       | 
       | Ten years later, the company's business was in shambles; almost
       | entirely because smartphones ate their lunch. I remember hearing
       | people whining about "How could we have foreseen this?"
       | 
       | These days, I write software on my own. I don't have anyone
       | telling me "Go away kid, yer bodderin' me."
       | 
       | It's been working well.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > I remember being called a "Cassandra,"
         | 
         | It's off-topic, but, why do people throw that as if it's an
         | offense? They are certainly not self-identifying as stupid ones
         | that will refuse to see real problems.
        
           | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
           | Because it is meant as an offense. It is designed to make it
           | plain that our input is not welcome.
           | 
           | The whole idea is to belittle someone else, and stop them
           | from coming to you, with their ideas.
           | 
           | To be fair, there are people who get _waaaaayyyy_ too
           | obsessed with  "not a problems." I have worked with many of
           | them, over the years. In fact, I just got off a video call
           | with one that suggested that we scrap our entire, near-ship-
           | ready app, because we are not sure how well it will scale for
           | millions of users, and it is _highly_ doubtful that it will
           | have more than a few thousand users, for the next three or
           | four years.
           | 
           | This is an app that has been under development for two years,
           | and is looking _very_ good.
           | 
           | I completely understand why what I said to Marketing was not
           | received well. Part of it was practicality. Changing course
           | is difficult, expensive, and risky. Even a high-level person
           | would be crazy to do it on a whim.
           | 
           | But the bigger part was ego. I know the people involved. In
           | this community, tecchies are valued and listened to, but, if
           | you are a small, technical team, in a marketing/sales/service
           | company, you get used to being treated like Moss and Roy.
           | 
           | What _is_ a good idea, though, is to evaluate who is bringing
           | the news, and what it would take to start examining the
           | issue. If my company had done that, then they would have been
           | well-prepared.
           | 
           | That's something that many companies are _spectacularly_ bad
           | at.
           | 
           | Instead, they stuck their fingers in their ears, and sang
           | "La-la-la-I-can't-hear-you."
        
         | danielmarkbruce wrote:
         | This doesn't read well. If you want to be heard, communication
         | skills matter.
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | Ok, you walked into Marketing and said "This is gonna be
         | trouble". What would happen next? Was the person looking at you
         | even able to decide anything about what Marketing was working
         | on? When you foresaw this huge danger to your employer, ten
         | years in advance, you didn't keep mentioning it to people, or
         | if change companies to somewhere that you know, you don't have
         | the knowledge that is gonna fail for sure due to your
         | foresight?
        
           | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
           | _> Was the person looking at you even able to decide anything
           | about what Marketing was working on?_
           | 
           | VP? Probably.
           | 
           |  _> When you foresaw this huge danger to your employer, ten
           | years in advance, you didn 't keep mentioning it to people_
           | 
           | It only takes a couple of slaps to make us shut up[0]. They
           | didn't want to hear from me, so I stopped trying to tell them
           | stuff. Simple.
           | 
           | In this case, what I did, was start learning about the
           | iPhone, and start doing coding on my own, once Apple allowed
           | us into the system (They didn't actually publish the iOS API
           | for a while). I actually wrote a number of apps that would
           | have integrated our products with the iPhone, as the years
           | went by, but ... you guessed it ... they were ignored. I
           | considered them as practice.
           | 
           | I remember once, one of my Japanese peers saying "You know, I
           | sometimes see something, and say to myself 'Chris mentioned
           | this, like three years ago.'." But he never listened to me,
           | at the time I was mentioning that. In fact, even after
           | telling me that, he _still_ refused to listen.
           | 
           | I knew the company was being steered into the rocks, and was
           | not allowed to help correct the course, so I spent my time,
           | preparing a lifeboat. I don't have to justify to anyone, why
           | I stuck around. If I have to explain, they wouldn't
           | understand.
           | 
           | Ego is a _powerful_ force. We will utterly destroy ourselves,
           | in order to salve our own insecurities.
           | 
           |  _> change companies_
           | 
           | That seems to be everyone's answer, these days. I guess I'm
           | stupid. I have not found it an attractive choice.
           | 
           | [0] _" A new idea is delicate. It can be killed by a sneer or
           | a yawn; it can be stabbed to death by a joke or worried to
           | death by a frown on the right person's brow."_
           | 
           | -Charles Browder
        
             | ghostbrainalpha wrote:
             | If you told execs with 100% certainty that a problem would
             | kill a company 10 years from now, many wouldn't care, even
             | if they totally believed you.
             | 
             | Most execs don't see themselves at that company in 10 years
             | time, so that type of problem just doesn't register for
             | them.
        
             | sthatipamala wrote:
             | People have said similar things about me as your Japanese
             | peer. What follows is tough love for myself so take it for
             | what its worth:
             | 
             | If no one listens to me when I'm right, that's my problem,
             | not theirs.
             | 
             | Everyone has their own incentives and motivations. If my
             | goal is to actually effect change, the onus is on me to
             | translate my strategy into a plan that is executable by
             | self-interested, messy human beings.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | I don't consider that tough. I'm _much_ harder on myself
               | than that.
               | 
               | There were many factors to consider. Factor One, was that
               | I am not Japanese. Even though I had a level of "insider
               | trust," that is _very_ rare for westerners, I wasn 't
               | "one of them."
               | 
               | Second, if you are familiar with the way Japanese
               | companies run, hierarchy is _crucial_. Once you are
               | informed that your input is not welcome, you are expected
               | to just shut up, and fall into line. Pick up a musket,
               | and kneel on the front row. Even if you know you are
               | doomed, you shut up and aim.
               | 
               | This has caused _many_ problems. The Fukushima disaster
               | was exacerbated by it.
               | 
               | Another factor, was that I am not Marketing. "Staying in
               | your wheelhouse" is something that is not unique to
               | Japanese companies. The VP I mentioned was not Japanese.
               | I was ignored, because I wasn't Marketing. I could have
               | been an intern in Marketing, and I would have had more
               | cred.
               | 
               | And, of course, there's the old "It's not a problem, if
               | we can't predict it 100%, ten years in advance," or "If
               | you complain, you also need to have the solution."
               | 
               | That second one is a killer. Many disastrously bad
               | "solutions" come about, because the issue had not been
               | explored enough, when the "solution" was presented.
               | 
               | Sometimes, it is best to not have an answer, until you
               | understand the question.
        
         | wahnfrieden wrote:
         | I suggest trying working with others as partner owners, instead
         | of working in organizations of people who are compensated
         | according to hours in seat
        
           | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
           | This is true. I tried that, after the wheels came off my old
           | company, but, you know, I also found out that us "olds"
           | aren't particularly attractive in today's tech scene.
           | 
           | It's OK. I just stopped trying to work for others, and have
           | been quite happy, working with people that can't afford to
           | pay me.
        
       | olivierduval wrote:
       | Strategy is about
       | 
       | - vision: what will be the market in the next few years ? What
       | products will be needed ? Who will be the competitor & how will
       | they be positionned ? And what about subcontractor ? And chain of
       | value ? And added value ?
       | 
       | - execution preparation: what will be required in the next few
       | years to complete to vision ? Maybe it's partnership, reorg, new
       | products, integration, buy competitor... There may be some key
       | milestone, like becoming first on a high visibility market before
       | becoming first-to-third in a high value mid-market... Or becoming
       | a reference for business before attacking the comsumer market...
       | or becoming a reference supplier/subcontractor before producing
       | with its own trademark...
       | 
       | Then the tactic is how to execute the strategy. There you'll need
       | roadmap, ressource allocation and such... but you already know
       | where you want to be in the next few years and roughly the
       | differents milestones to get there before starting to move
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | At least some people have a strategy, but not many, that's right.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wardley_map
        
         | throw0821374 wrote:
         | I wonder what types of problems Wardley maps would create if
         | everyone thought this way ?
         | 
         | Relentless focus on where your work lies on the commodification
         | spectrum, moving up the value chain, etc.
        
       | agomez314 wrote:
       | The author makes a good point that there are not enough
       | incentives to think long and ponder - which can lead to better,
       | more "thoughtful" ideas.
       | 
       | I have found the following to be great incentives for quiet
       | thinking:
       | 
       | - No electronics in early morning and at night (~1hr before
       | sleep)
       | 
       | - Go on long runs without listening to music or podcasts
       | 
       | - Write things down on a notebook
       | 
       | - Do hobbies instead of scrolling through social media (i.e
       | drawing, playing an instrument, exercising).
        
       | __oh_es wrote:
       | Does anybody have examples/links of strategy as it was released,
       | thats also considered good quality?
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | I'm the guy who reads that article and all these comments and if
       | I'm in the meeting where they talk about this I just politely nod
       | and have no idea what anyone is talking about. Meanwhile I"m
       | thinking we're not even talking about a strategy, we're talking
       | about what "strategy" even is... or not and just talking past
       | each other.
        
       | mihaic wrote:
       | Any sufficiently useful strategy to handle complexity needs to
       | have some amount of ambiguity, which needs to be filled in by
       | people with a minimum of life experience and good intentions.
       | 
       | I've become more convinced in recent years that even a well
       | thought out strategy can't be implemented by the average post-
       | modernist cynical office workers, and the secret right now is
       | identifying how you can have a highly robust strategy.
       | 
       | Laws and incentives are not enough to build a society, they're
       | just necessary. A culture with good values that also punishes
       | bullshit/imorality seems to be required.
        
         | l33t2328 wrote:
         | > A culture with good values that also punishes
         | bullshit/imorality seems to be required.
         | 
         | CGP Grey coined an excellent term for these on his podcast,
         | calling them "The Necessary Lies of Civilization."
        
       | dchuk wrote:
       | The overwhelming majority of "strategies" are just rigid
       | sequences of time bound outputs/shit you want to build, that
       | always end up being wrong and needing to change because of new
       | information coming in.
       | 
       | Strategy needs to be:
       | 
       | - We've identified this deep problem in the world that needs to
       | be fixed
       | 
       | - We want to bring the Vision to life where that problem is gone
       | (a big bold future state of the world).
       | 
       | - We believe bringing this sequence (roadmap) of intermediate
       | states of the world to life will get us to that vision.
       | 
       | - These are the things we WONT do along the way. (Guiding policy)
       | 
       | A roadmap unrolls your strategy into that sequence. A good
       | roadmap item clearly lays out where you're trying to go without
       | committing you to doing it in any particular way. <-- this is the
       | most important principle you need to master to create good,
       | proper roadmaps
       | 
       | Most roadmaps are really a feature release plan. A roadmap should
       | contain Futures, not Features.
       | 
       | All of the above is uncomfortable at first and takes a lot of
       | practice to get used to, so many just end up committing to a
       | timeline of things to build that doesn't really add up to an
       | actual strategy.
        
         | tootie wrote:
         | I think the problem is that strategy is hard and frequently
         | requires divestment. Your head of inbound marketing isn't going
         | to tell you the company strategy should switch to outbound
         | marketing so let's cut my team in half and throw away
         | everything I've built. My company is suffering this right now.
         | We're doing annual roadmapping and it's entirely a program
         | plan. Our business has shifted over the past 5 years and now
         | there's a lot of initiatives being pitched to justify their
         | department's existence.
        
           | dchuk wrote:
           | "Your head of inbound marketing isn't going to tell you the
           | company strategy should switch to outbound marketing so let's
           | cut my team in half and throw away everything I've built." 1)
           | Some might, if they see other roles/opportunities for
           | themselves in the event they do 2) Generally your example is
           | a call their boss or another overarching leader would make,
           | not someone within the system/strategy.
        
             | tootie wrote:
             | Yeah, my example is a bit reductive but some form of this
             | happens pretty frequently. Especially when the high-level
             | decision makers are relying on their reports to provide
             | inputs to their strategy decisions.
        
         | FunnyBadger wrote:
         | Exactly.
         | 
         | If you think "strategy" involves following a simple one-size-
         | fits-all cookbook recipe, you are very deep in the weeks. Sadly
         | that's pretty much what most MBAs get from their MBA program.
         | Rather than the true lessons.
         | 
         | A lot of this is also easier if you are "present" in the now
         | and the world. I don't meet many people who are either.
        
         | danielvaughn wrote:
         | A major component of a strategy is constraint. In other words,
         | what are you going to give up? If you're going to do All The
         | Things, that isn't a strategy, it's a wishlist. You have to
         | bring constraints into the picture before anything like a
         | strategy emerges.
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | This is exactly right, the most important thing that makes it
           | a strategy is what we cut ourselves off from doing. If we're
           | only hiring seniors, we don't get access to cheap graduates
           | who can stay up all night. If we play a high line, we can't
           | sit deep and wait for a counterattack.
           | 
           | The basic thing that makes a plan a strategy is it stops you
           | from doing "the everything". A constrained menu of actions
           | can still contain variability but it reduces the scope for
           | total chaos that happens when you try to do absolutely
           | everything.
           | 
           | It's quite possible that two opposing strategies can both
           | work, but that allowing the team to do both at once will
           | fail. That's called straddling. For example it's hard to
           | appeal to exclusivity and the mass market at once, but
           | businesses have done well doing one or the other.
        
         | mikkergp wrote:
         | I find the good strategy/bad strategy definition useful, which
         | is essentially, an area of 'strength' as to be applied to an
         | area of 'weakness' (put in quotes because I think weakness can
         | be replaced with "opportunity" or similar words, but his point
         | is that a good strategy should respect the specific skills of
         | the business/team while also finding some unique space in the
         | market those skills apply. Otherwise "visions" are just pipe
         | dreams.
        
           | clairity wrote:
           | that's definitely a good heuristic for finding a strategy.
           | strategies are realistic methods for _how_ you 'll achieve a
           | goal without getting into the details of _what_ you will do
           | to get there (that 's the plan). in chess, it might be
           | "control the middle" (if you're strong positionally). in
           | basketball, it might be "run and gun" (if your strength is
           | endurance and speed).
           | 
           | it's important to understand that strategy only exists
           | relative to competition. thus a business strategy only exists
           | at the level of a firm, and not a department or a product,
           | because firms compete in markets (for which a firm may
           | produce many products). that also means it doesn't make sense
           | to talk about marketing strategy or product strategy, because
           | those are implementation details of the firm's business
           | strategy. further, firms only have two broad strategic
           | options: differentiaton (compete on quality) or cost (compete
           | on price). within that, they can apply their strengths to
           | tailor their strategy to the firm (our proprietary
           | manufacturing process produces much more consistent and
           | precise tiddlybonks, so we'll compete on quality).
        
         | brador wrote:
         | Disagree. Short term - todo list, Mid term - features list,
         | Long term - future milestones. All three together form your
         | roadmap. All three guided by macro goals.
        
         | mouzogu wrote:
         | i agree, but think timelines are a practical necessity of
         | business. this is why we get so much half-baked/unfinished
         | stuff being released.
         | 
         | and this is where the trade-offs happen that dilute or
         | misdirect an otherwise sound roadmap/strategy. some exec needs
         | shit done so he can present to his boss and get his nice bonus,
         | then jump ship before they realise its a clusterf*ck.
        
           | dchuk wrote:
           | I don't disagree that timelines are important. However, here
           | is the problem I consistently see:
           | 
           | Wrong Way: Most roadmaps contain timelines that are "We're
           | going to build this specific thing and we're estimating it's
           | going to take this long" (Even worse is if they're
           | specifically bucketed by quarters with strict cut offs).
           | Isolated estimates of how long something will take will
           | _always be wrong_ because it doesn 't account for all the
           | work in the system and the trade offs that brings with it.
           | Basic Lean theory at work.
           | 
           | Right Way: "We're going to try and create this future state
           | of the world, we'll know we're there as measured by x y z
           | metrics, and we're going to budget this much time and this
           | many resources to try and pull this off. Here's some high
           | level ideas of how we can do this".
           | 
           | When you roadmap in the second way, you can still provide the
           | business a timeline, but:
           | 
           | - You leave yourself the ability to pivot your approach along
           | the way and still try and hit those measurables (futures not
           | features, you want to be crystal clear about where you're
           | trying to get without committing to how you're going to get
           | there in any specific way)
           | 
           | - You transition the evaluation of your results away from a
           | boolean (did you build this thing or not), to a discrete
           | measurable, _that still allows you to achieve some amount of
           | success even if you didn 't completely hit the goal_ ("Our
           | target was a 60% reduction in support calls, and we were able
           | to reduce by 40%").
           | 
           | I'd also argue that a kanban style roadmap (considering,
           | planning, next, doing, done), is more than enough of a
           | timeline even without dates, so long as each outcome seems
           | reasonable enough to achieve in 2-4 month efforts. The reason
           | why, is I can look at the right side of the roadmap and
           | immediately understand that you've prioritized those Outcomes
           | as being more impactful than the left side of your roadmap.
           | 
           | (Extreme caveat here: You have to have a leadership team that
           | buys into this approach. Some leaders will look at this and
           | just say WTF where's your Gantt chart. You can then either
           | teach them the right way, do what they say and probably fail,
           | or quit, your call).
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | chrisweekly wrote:
             | Great comment.
             | 
             | "futures not features" is a gem!
        
               | mason55 wrote:
               | "Outcomes not outputs" is another similar way of stating
               | it
        
             | 121789 wrote:
             | Your "right way" is the right approach to anchor on but in
             | reality it never works out as nice as it sounds. Common
             | problems:
             | 
             | 1. You have some projects that are rigorously time bound
             | (e.g. we absolutely need to ship X by Y date). Maybe scope
             | is negotiable a bit but you definitely need results by a
             | certain date.
             | 
             | 2. Implicitly all of your work is time bound. Even if you
             | say "we want to get to a 60% reduction in support calls",
             | the follow up question is "by when?". Tons of internal
             | forces (employee reviews, shifting company priorities)
             | shift the framing from "we think a 60% reduction in support
             | calls is a healthy sustainable level for our business, and
             | that is our goal" to "we are targeting a 20% reduction in
             | support calls over the next six months". Then your multi-
             | quarter big-bet projects need to be broken down into phases
             | which won't have an impact on the support calls by
             | themselves, so you have to take ship goals or create other
             | goals to capture that work (not great)
        
               | dchuk wrote:
               | Great comments:
               | 
               | > 1. You have some projects that are rigorously time
               | bound (e.g. we absolutely need to ship X by Y date).
               | Maybe scope is negotiable a bit but you definitely need
               | results by a certain date.
               | 
               | In this case, you explicitly call out that roadmap item,
               | and label it as "this thing will win out and other
               | initiatives will be delayed if this thing goes sideways"
               | 
               | > 2. Implicitly all of your work is time bound. Even if
               | you say "we want to get to a 60% reduction in support
               | calls", the follow up question is "by when?". Tons of
               | internal forces (employee reviews, shifting company
               | priorities) shift the framing from "we think a 60%
               | reduction in support calls is a healthy sustainable level
               | for our business, and that is our goal" to "we are
               | targeting a 20% reduction in support calls over the next
               | six months". Then your multi-quarter big-bet projects
               | need to be broken down into phases which won't have an
               | impact on the support calls by themselves, so you have to
               | take ship goals or create other goals to capture that
               | work (not great).
               | 
               | Yes, you're right, I didn't write that one clearly. For
               | outcomes like that, you should have defined "come up for
               | air" dates where you measure and determine whether you
               | keep going or call it as good enough/not worth it to
               | continue and then move on to other things.
        
         | tibbetts wrote:
         | Finding a big problem is actually optional, and often a
         | distraction. Most companies that are already functioning at
         | scale have plenty of medium sized problems that need strategic
         | fixes. For example "sales aren't growing in Japan." Most small
         | companies are happy to stay small and also need only solve
         | medium sized problems. For example "there is no good
         | construction supplies vendor in this geography." It's only
         | startups looking for rapid-scaling venture-friendly returns who
         | need a big unsolved problem they can grow into.
         | 
         | Of course, those companies get a whole lot of attention. But
         | Google and Facebook and Twitter don't need big new unsolved
         | problems. They already picked their big problem, and solved it
         | well enough to get big. Now they need strategies which address
         | the medium sized problems that limit their continued success.
         | When they go looking for big new unsolved problems (I'm looking
         | at you Alphabet and Meta) it's usually a distraction.
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | There is an old engineer quote that appears a couple times in my
       | newest book, where at 3Com the Microsoft LAN Manager alliance and
       | OS/2 were considered "strategic," as was the Bridge acquisition:
       | 
       |  _" Strategic" means "you don't make any money."_
       | 
       | So yeah, we were all deeply cynical about that word, because it
       | means, all too often, the inchoate wishes that MBAs throw onto a
       | bunch of slides.
       | 
       | I'm all in favor of a really well-thought "strategy," if you have
       | one. If not, this will often suffice:
       | 
       |  _We 're going to do whatever we have to do to make a ton of
       | money._
        
         | jamiek88 wrote:
         | Was Android strategic for google or just reaction to an
         | existential threat?
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | I always like to distinguish "with hindsight" from "at the
           | time." Anyone can figure out what's strategic from hindsight.
           | 
           | At the time? I think probably Larry, Sergey, and Eric
           | _thought_ it was strategic then. Did they think it was _more_
           | strategic than radio ads (a business long gone!) or TV ads
           | (also gone!)? Not sure.
        
             | danielmarkbruce wrote:
             | It was strategic. They needed to control the endpoints to
             | protect search. Hence Chrome, Android, Daydream, watches
             | and so on. Half of what Google does is an effort to control
             | endpoints to protect search.
        
       | ra120271 wrote:
       | I do a lot of vision and strategy work whether implicitly or
       | explicitly. Why do we need to get somewhere and how do we get
       | from here to there?
       | 
       | I believe it's really hard to get where you you want to go if
       | everyone is looking down at the next step or two and not to the
       | horizon. That said, a strategy that does not deal with the
       | journey and the challenges of the journey is just a vision
       | without an ability to realise it.
       | 
       | My experiences is that strategies that are not part of a delivery
       | enablement capability are planned journeys without anyone to make
       | it.
       | 
       | I find it's one of the hardest things I do in my work life and it
       | is one of the hardest things to do right with any level of
       | consistency.
       | 
       | Fortunately I do love a challenge.
        
       | Invictus0 wrote:
       | A lot of people giving hot takes here about what strategy is, and
       | ironically Rumelt wrote his book to give a clear definition on
       | what strategy is. The author of the substack does us all a
       | disservice by not quoting Rumelt accurately.
        
         | chrisweekly wrote:
         | "does us all a disservice but not quoting Rumelt accurately"
         | 
         | but -> by
        
           | Invictus0 wrote:
           | Thanks, I've been making way too many typos lately! :)
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | I'm not convinced.
       | 
       | Here's my theory for explaining the lack of strategy in many
       | organizations: Many people are incapable of thinking into the
       | future and imagining the possible outcomes of various courses of
       | action. The let's-just-take-it-2-weeks-at-a-time-and-see-how-it-
       | goes process known as "agile" has let these people assume
       | positions of power. If you try and switch back to a more long-
       | term strategic working model they will fight tooth and nail for
       | their positions, which they understand they are not competent to
       | hold if seeing more than 2 weeks into the future is part of the
       | job description.
        
       | orlp wrote:
       | Any organization that designs a system (defined broadly) will
       | produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's
       | communication structure.
       | 
       | -- Melvin E. Conway
       | 
       | The exact same thing applies to any (effective realization of) a
       | company strategy. Conway's law applies both during strategic
       | planning and execution.
        
         | tmountain wrote:
         | The illustration of Conway's law at the top of that page always
         | gives me a chuckle.
         | 
         | http://scrumbook.org/product-organization-pattern-language/c...
        
       | mouzogu wrote:
       | How does NASA go about creating a strategy to land someone on the
       | Moon or to build a space shuttle.
       | 
       | this is something i'd really like to read about, and how they
       | design for all the contingencies and things that can go wrong on
       | a practical and hardware/software level.
        
         | ralphb wrote:
         | That's interesting. My kneejerk reaction to your comment was
         | "no, you don't have a strategy for landing a man on the moon,
         | you have a mission architecture!". But on further consideration
         | there really seems to be a lot of overlap between system
         | architectures and strategies (in the Rumelt sense). Diagnosis,
         | kernel, guiding policies. Seems to fit both domains.
        
       | evanwolf wrote:
       | "A Strategy" is the problem. Strategy is an activity, a process,
       | a rigorous engagement with reality, a forging of choices. It's
       | not a "vision" or a "charter" or a document. It's an action. It's
       | playing with other forces in the world that can be adversaries,
       | obstacles, and allies. It's the thing you go back to when your
       | assumptions are challenged and efforts don't work. Purpose
       | informs strategy. Facts and intelligence inform strategy. Beware
       | "strategy theater" and "Potempkin artifacts" like vision
       | statements, roadmaps, and policies that comfort despite an
       | absence of strategy work.
        
       | phamilton wrote:
       | More from Good Strategy, Bad Strategy:
       | 
       | > the kernel of a good strategy contains three elements: a
       | diagnosis, a guiding policy, and coherent action.
       | 
       | A clear diagnosis is hard. It can take hours or even days of
       | iterating on a single sentence and seeking feedback and
       | continuing to iterate before you've accurate diagnosed the
       | problem and found a way to clearly communicate it. Strategy is
       | hard because taking days to write a single sentence just _feels_
       | like a waste. But if that single sentence makes it so dozens of
       | people better understand what you are doing it is 100% worth it.
        
       | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
       | > The problem isn't that people can't think strategically.
       | 
       | The problem is that real life has a way of making your strategy
       | obsolete.
       | 
       | As Mike Tyson said: Everyone has a plan until they get punched in
       | the mouth.
       | 
       | Having a team that communicates effectively and and is agile (in
       | the normal sense of the word) and executes effectively is more
       | important than strategy.
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | > Having a team that communicates effectively and and is agile
         | (in the normal sense of the word) and executes effectively is
         | more important than strategy.
         | 
         | Why is this necessary?
        
           | LegitShady wrote:
           | So you can dodge if someone tries to punch you in the mouth I
           | guess
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | Only that Tyson and others do have a game plan that
         | accountsvfor the fact of being punched in the mouth.
        
         | mountainriver wrote:
         | What's more important than that is to update your strategy
         | openly when new information arises
        
         | zmgsabst wrote:
         | > Having a team that communicates effectively and and is agile
         | (in the normal sense of the word) and executes effectively is
         | more important than strategy.
         | 
         | Hard disagree:
         | 
         | Those things are important, but I've seen teams with those
         | qualities spin or fail to produce impact because they don't
         | have a strategy.
         | 
         | You need an objective and you need a plan to get there --
         | "objectives and key results".
         | 
         | Communication and agility allow for tactical changes in
         | completing that strategy, which are important, but having no
         | strategy will go nowhere.
        
           | ddek wrote:
           | I'd argue that having follow a doctrine of agility,
           | communication and cooperation is in itself part of a
           | strategy. It only solves part of the equation, though. Your
           | overall strategy is incoherent if you pair these traits with
           | a long-distance ivory tower goal setting. If you had a
           | process to quickly identify and refine smaller (or sub)
           | objectives you'd use the agility to its potential. Add in
           | some mechanisms to minimise the artifacts of fast-paced agile
           | engineering (e.g. tech debt, bloat), and you have a complete
           | strategy.
        
         | oersted wrote:
         | It's not an excuse not to have a plan. Strategy is dynamic and
         | iterative.
         | 
         | When you get punched in the mouth, you just adjust your plan
         | based on new evidence, you don't throw it out the window.
         | 
         | Besides, business and engineering are not like fights and
         | battles. Sudden shocks are rare and split-second decisions are
         | not often called for. In most cases new evidence comes
         | gradually, there is time to validate it, digest it and re-tune
         | expectations and strategy.
         | 
         | Furthermore, always acting on the main immediate
         | priority/bottleneck rarely leads to optimal speed. In computer
         | science, this is called a greedy algorithm. They are indeed
         | simpler to implement and tune (and to execute by teams), but
         | rarely optimal. Real speed requires making predictions and
         | adjusting them as more information becomes available, this is
         | what planning is.
        
           | dgb23 wrote:
           | > When you get punched in the mouth, you just adjust your
           | plan based on new evidence, you don't throw it out the
           | window.
           | 
           | I interpret the Mike Tyson quote differently than you. What
           | he was saying that under high pressure you _will_ throw stuff
           | out of the window, namely all the stuff that doesn't work
           | under pressure, in difficult situations. This is why plans
           | need to be simple. You need to be able to keep them in your
           | head when shit hits the fan so you don't start flailing
           | around like a headless chicken.
        
         | nisa wrote:
         | > Having a team that communicates effectively and and is agile
         | (in the normal sense of the word) and executes effectively is
         | more important than strategy.
         | 
         | Been part of a team that was very agile and executed quite
         | effectively every day. We just put out fires caused by our bad
         | code. It worked fine in some way every time but hours were
         | wasted but everyone worked hard and gave their best.
         | 
         | I guess a strategy in this context would be post-mortems and
         | root-cause analysis and time for the devs to actually learn the
         | frameworks they are abusing.
        
         | zabzonk wrote:
         | Or alternatively:
         | 
         | "No Plan Survives First Contact With the Enemy"
         | 
         | https://quoteinvestigator.com/2021/05/04/no-plan/
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | Which doesn't mean you can afford to have no plan at all.
           | Because: "Failing to plan means planning to fail".
        
             | mrhether wrote:
             | Such words ring true to everybody who has ever had a chance
             | to experience failure. Proper time management is the key I
             | would say and that's what it's good for and where it fails.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | I also like that one: Proper prior planning prevents piss
               | poor performance, the 7P.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | "Plans are useless, but planning is essential."
           | 
           | https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/11/18/planning/
        
       | vendiddy wrote:
       | Are there some historical examples of good strategies out there?
       | 
       | I'm having trouble understanding the definition of a strategy and
       | how it differs from a plan.
        
         | spywaregorilla wrote:
         | A strategy is more of a framework of how decisions will be made
         | and what the long term goals are.
         | 
         | A plan is usually specifics steps you will do to achieve those
         | goals.
        
         | doctor_eval wrote:
         | My take on strategic thinking is that it's a small set of very
         | high level and related goals and constraints that, if achieved,
         | are likely to lead to the success of a project. A good strategy
         | IMO is relatively simple (a short set of bullet points), widely
         | known, and actively used to guide decision making at all
         | levels. Most importantly, a good strategy helps you to say
         | "no", because most of us have very limited resources at our
         | disposal and we simply can't do everything.
         | 
         | Here's a simple example. Let's say we have some SaaS product;
         | we naturally want to maximise its revenue. There are many
         | potential strategies. Strategy "A" might be to sell a small
         | number of subs at a high monthly price. Strategy "B" might be
         | to sell many subs at a low monthly price. Strategy "C" might be
         | to fund the product through advertising. There are other
         | strategies, too. You will pick the strategy you believe has the
         | greatest chance of achieving your goals in your specific
         | circumstances. (Typically the strategy would also involve
         | conscious decisions about how the product works and where it
         | fits in the market)
         | 
         | Choosing a specific strategy helps you allocate scarce
         | resources and build the right product. Adopting a strategy "A"
         | above could maybe let you manage without a complex self-
         | onboarding flow, but it might also require a (potentially
         | expensive) direct sales team. Strategy "B" and "C" might
         | require self-onboarding, which can be tricky, but requires a
         | less expensive marketing team. Strategy "C" doesn't require a
         | payment gateway or billing platform, but probably needs to be
         | able to operate at greater scale.
         | 
         | > Are there some historical examples of good strategies out
         | there?
         | 
         | Most strategies play out in stages over time. IIRC, Tesla had a
         | pretty simple strategy of selling super expensive Roadsters to
         | learn about building cars and to fund the manufacture of
         | expensive models S and X, which in turn funded the less
         | expensive models 3 and Y. The beauty of their strategy was that
         | they knew why they were building a Roadster, and they weren't
         | distracted by wondering if they should add certain features
         | like (I'm making this up) child restraints. The risk of this
         | strategy was that there might not be enough rich people to buy
         | enough roadsters to get to second base. (History suggests they
         | made the right call)
         | 
         | The thing is, if you don't have a strategy then you end up
         | wasting resources building every little brain fart someone
         | comes up with in the hope that your numbers will improve. But
         | the weight of all these conflicting ideas, and the time wasted
         | on things that don't work out, is every bit as risky as
         | choosing a single coherent strategy. A strategy is like a great
         | feature filter where you can throw out half the ideas because
         | "it doesn't fit with our strategy", which makes you heaps more
         | efficient.
         | 
         | As long as you don't change strategies too often.
         | 
         | > I'm having trouble understanding the definition of a strategy
         | and how it differs from a plan.
         | 
         | In truth, a strategy is just a kind of plan, but one without
         | much detail. It's the high level stuff that kind of lays out
         | the game plan. First, you need to decide that you need to build
         | a Roadster - that's the strategy. Then, you need to build it.
         | That requires planning. The strategy is important because it
         | tells you why you're building it. The planning is important
         | because it makes the strategy happen.
        
         | dgb23 wrote:
         | There's huge overlap, but if you want to differentiate them,
         | then you can do it like so:
         | 
         | A strategy is high level stuff. Typically vague and open to
         | interpretation. It's about general approach and big decisions,
         | core principles and goals.
         | 
         | Tactics/operations is the details given a particular situation
         | or project. They can be grounded in specific steps to take.
         | 
         | A plan can be understood as formulating tactics and bridging
         | the gap between strategy and tactics. You may have multiple
         | plans that you pull out given some events and circumstances. I
         | think there's overlap with the term 'protocol' as well.
         | 
         | As for good historical examples you may look at military
         | strategy. The most consistent and successful ones are often the
         | most boring: robust logistics and well-provisioned forces,
         | cultural assimilation, high discipline/training, mass produced
         | equipment, specialized roles, competent officers etc. Those are
         | broad strokes and not necessarily specific implementations
         | (even though they matter too). Look at the Romans or Ottomans
         | for good examples.
        
         | tmountain wrote:
         | I think Apple launching the iPod is a good example.
         | 
         | - They saw a need in the consumer market that wasn't filled.
         | 
         | - They used the Apple team as "target customers" to help with
         | needs analysis.
         | 
         | - They addressed UX/ergonomics issues present in existing
         | offerings.
         | 
         | - They leveraged existing footholds to maximize value (iTunes,
         | digital store, etc).
         | 
         | - They started with a niche market to gain influencer status
         | with their offering.
         | 
         | - They ended with an ecosystem of products built around their
         | original idea, some of which represented new innovations that
         | weren't part of the original plan.
         | 
         | All of the bullets above can be folded into a plan, but at the
         | macro level, they comprise a directional motion for the org.
         | 
         | "We're going to offer this thing to solve this problem to these
         | people, our unique competitive advantages are X, Y, and Z, and
         | we believe we're uniquely positioned as a result."
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | >- They leveraged existing footholds to maximize value
           | (iTunes, digital store, etc)
           | 
           | And with the exception of this, there was arguably very
           | little about the original iPod strategy--at least as seen
           | from the outside--that was at all remarkable and
           | differentiating. It was mostly about execution including
           | marketing.
        
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