[HN Gopher] Crypto Winter, or Crypto Ice Age?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Crypto Winter, or Crypto Ice Age?
        
       Author : AndrewDucker
       Score  : 47 points
       Date   : 2022-07-14 10:25 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.technollama.co.uk)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.technollama.co.uk)
        
       | drdrek wrote:
       | Saddest thing about Crypto even more than the energy cost is the
       | human minds it consumed. I heard people saying that Crypto is
       | what bright graduate students want to focus on and that just too
       | bad.
       | 
       | If you want to finance the un-financed or create decentralized
       | finance go into fintech, crypto is just a bad implementation of
       | fintech... If you want to change the world go into Biotech or
       | Energy tech.. the next thing to change humanity is probably a
       | better battery not a better foreign exchange market...
       | 
       | And if you just want to get rich by taking money from fools I
       | would recommend setting up an online casino, there are companies
       | that sell white labeled platforms for online casinos and those
       | extract money from poor people with 10th of the cost to the rest
       | of humanity and takes way less effort to set up!
       | 
       | First result in google, not an endorsement [1]
       | https://www.softswiss.com/white-label-solution/
        
         | anony23 wrote:
         | Crypto IS a subset of fintech.
        
           | skyyler wrote:
           | Yes, the comment you're replying to said that it is a bad
           | implementation of fintech.
        
         | mountainriver wrote:
         | Yeah it's not really solving many problems, more people should
         | go into AI, that's where all the impact will be
        
         | sshine wrote:
         | "Too many smart people go into finance and law."
         | 
         | said some electric car manufacturer.
        
       | Tao3300 wrote:
       | Heat death of the metaverse
        
       | heckelson wrote:
       | I imagine it to be extremely difficult to remain unbiased in a
       | dissertation about a technology when you yourself are financially
       | reliant on that technology.
        
       | bannedbybros wrote:
        
       | lucideer wrote:
       | Bitcoin is absolute garbage and in theory any critique is good,
       | but it bothers me that half of the points in this article aren't
       | even internally logically consistent:
       | 
       | > _"Blockchain is just like the early internet". No, it isn't.
       | Satoshi Nakamoto's paper was published in October 2008 ...
       | <proceeds to compare age of Bitcoin to the age of some modern
       | tech corps>._
       | 
       | Nothing about the original statement is predicated on the age of
       | the tech. Even if it did, I don't see what modern tech corps have
       | to do with anything - they didn't build the internet. Also, on
       | age, the early internet dates back to the 60s and was still
       | considered "early" 30+ years later.
       | 
       | > _There are centralisation and technical problems with these
       | solutions, but let's ignore those for now, and call these systems
       | for what they are. Second layers act as a reminder that the
       | original networks cannot scale, and need a second network on top
       | of the network to operate. This is an admission of failure._
       | 
       | If we ignore the technical problems, 2nd-layer seem like a
       | practical solution to a problem. Why is that a failure?
       | 
       | (now I know that they _DO_ have technical problems - so maybe let
       | 's talk about those specifically, instead of making weird
       | nonsensical statements)
       | 
       | > _"Bitcoin is digital gold". It isn't, gold is gold, it requires
       | no maintenance fee, once it's mined [...] Bitcoin [...] need to
       | be maintained by miners using electricity [...] at least to keep
       | the mining running._
       | 
       | Why is mining excluded for gold and not for Bitcoin in your
       | analogy?
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | As for my own opinions...
       | 
       | > _Concluding, will crypto die?_
       | 
       | This is two questions:
       | 
       | 1. Will the crypto market die? Hopefully, though I'm less than
       | optimistic.
       | 
       | 2. Will blockchain tech die? Of course not. It's not very useful
       | but it has niche applications - there's plenty of obscure tech
       | that's kept around by enthusiasts, so I think we can be sure that
       | even after the last cryptobro is bankrupted, there'll still be a
       | group of geeks somewhere hacking on the blockchain for fun.
        
         | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
         | > Why is mining excluded for gold and not for Bitcoin in your
         | analogy?
         | 
         | because: "Bitcoin needs to be maintained by miners using
         | electricity" like they say?
         | 
         | Gold doesn't need continued mining to continue being gold.
        
           | landemva wrote:
           | Bitcoin miners consume electricity to provide fast and
           | affordable assay. For small value Bitcoin transfers,
           | lightning network is even cheaper and faster.
        
           | nailer wrote:
           | You need to rent a safety deposit box for the gold to
           | continue being _your_ gold though.
        
             | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
             | > You need to rent a safety deposit box for the gold
             | 
             | No, I don't. Where I keep my valuables is my business, and
             | it depends on how much gold I have. People kept gold long
             | before safety deposit boxes at banks were a thing.
             | 
             | And, paraphrasing above: why is secure storage included for
             | gold and not for Bitcoin in your analogy?
        
               | nailer wrote:
               | > Where I keep my valuables is my business, and it
               | depends on how much gold I have. People kept gold long
               | before safety deposit boxes at banks were a thing.
               | 
               | Sure but the other options often increase risk or have a
               | different cost. Some Vietnamese friends used to keep
               | money in their house and then had their homes invaded. I
               | imagine that's not entirely uncommon.
               | 
               | > And, paraphrasing above: why is secure storage included
               | for gold and not for Bitcoin in your analogy?
               | 
               | Oh that's my point - we should definitely take in storage
               | costs for both.
        
         | xnorswap wrote:
         | The internet didn't really take off until the web, but once the
         | web was there it completely exploded from there on out.
         | Comparing to the web makes bitcoin look pathetic scratching
         | around for a problem for its solution over a decade later.
         | 
         | If you're all about Second layer scaling, why not just use
         | existing second layers like VISA? If you're transacting via a
         | trusted second layer to provide scaling, you might as well have
         | that as a layer over the dollar, or gold, or other stable
         | asset.
        
           | SkyMarshal wrote:
           | The web is the wrong analogy/comparison for Bitcoin. Bitcoin
           | was never designed or intended to be anything like the web.
           | It was designed to be a money and payments system, no more no
           | less. If you must compare it to anything, compare it to
           | dollars, euro, yen, gold coins, etc.
           | 
           | You may be thinking of Ethereum and any other "crypto"
           | claiming to be "Web 3", where they want to store and run
           | entire websites on their distributed database. But that's not
           | Bitcoin.
        
             | xnorswap wrote:
             | I'm not the one making the comparison, it's people going
             | around touting that you should invest because "it's like
             | the early internet, it'll be everywhere soon and worth
             | trillions".
        
         | masswerk wrote:
         | Regarding (1), the real statement here is, "many of us were
         | there at the start of the Web, it was evident that it was going
         | to change the world, and it was usable from the start." And
         | it's mostly about the the Web (but you may include things like
         | The Well, which were promising from the start.) The point is
         | really about immediately apparent use. And, if you're going to
         | date the Web back to the humble beginnings of ARPANET in the
         | early 1970s, you've to include hashes published in the NYT
         | classifieds in the 1970s/1980s for crypto, as well.
         | 
         | Regarding (2), why not have a functional implementation right
         | from the beginning? (Analogously, why have a really bad OS
         | fixed by the application layer?)
         | 
         | The point in (3) is really about availability and value in
         | times of crisis. Gold is already mined, as you hold it.
        
           | game-of-throws wrote:
           | > it was evident that it was going to change the world
           | 
           | That's easy to say in hindsight, but the utility of the
           | internet was debated as hotly back then as the utility of
           | cryptocurrency is today.
           | 
           | > By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's
           | impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax
           | machine's.
           | 
           | https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-
           | eff...
        
             | masswerk wrote:
             | It isn't so that the Web wouldn't have gone from boom to
             | bust rather immediately (it really began to surface and
             | become known to a broader public in around 1996 and about 4
             | years later, there was already the burst of the dot-com
             | bubble), but it was immediately apparent that the Web still
             | had use and that there were plenty of undeveloped use-
             | cases. Not sure, if this applies to the crypto market, as
             | well.
        
           | matthewdgreen wrote:
           | This is all pretty arbitrary. In the context of _pure
           | engineering_ timelines, you don't get to just pick arbitrary
           | starting points.
           | 
           | The Internet took decades to reach "I can buy cat food from
           | my home PC" because that's how long it took the underlying
           | computing and networking technologies to go from the first
           | recognizable proto-technologies to the point where they
           | enabled mass-market usage. If you start your clock in 1994
           | (or 2007) you can make that time look shorter, but it doesn't
           | change anything.
           | 
           | Similarly Uber was able to launch a GPS-based smartphone app
           | only a few years after the first smartphone, because the
           | technologies of 3G cellular, OS, portable computing, GUI,
           | GPS, distributed systems etc. were all extremely mature by
           | the time the smartphone launched. But if you measure from
           | earlier points in the "portable computing" timeline you can
           | make Uber look like a multi-decade pipe dream.
           | 
           | There's no reason to believe that the technical barriers
           | facing cryptocurrency (scaling, UI, key management) will
           | follow dramatically slower or faster tech development curves
           | than those previous technologies. There are still plenty of
           | reasons to question whether there's a "killer app" once the
           | tech issues are sorted out, but they clearly aren't yet.
        
           | lucideer wrote:
           | To be clear, I'm not disagreeing with the intent behind the
           | article, I just think the execution is exceptionally poor. If
           | you're going to argue against something, make your arguments
           | compelling (your comment's first point is, the author's
           | wasn't).
           | 
           | On your second & third points:
           | 
           | 2: Improving tech over time is good. Creating perfect tech on
           | day 1 isn't realistic. The early internet was built on a lot
           | of tech we no longer use (or are a attempting to move away
           | from)
           | 
           | 3: The "I already have gold but no bitcoin in a time of
           | crisis" qualifier seems odd and contrived. Gold is a resource
           | valued for its scarcity, Bitcoin is an attempt to move away
           | from artificial scarcity of fiat to mathematically guaranteed
           | scarcity. Ultimately they share problems: mining of physical
           | goods is environmentally destructive and tying economic
           | prosperity to inflating resource value based on scarcity
           | instead of utility is also ultimately problematic for society
           | in the long term. So the analogy does work -they're
           | fundamentally very comparable. The primary differentiators
           | are (a) the scale of cryptomining is greater per-unit than
           | for physical resources (+ transactional impact), and (b)
           | Bitcoin's got a whole load of extra bad problems that gold
           | doesn't: e.g. instability.
        
             | landemva wrote:
             | > tying economic prosperity to inflating resource value
             | based on scarcity instead of utility
             | 
             | Why would the store of value or the unit of account or the
             | medium of exchange (the money) determine prosperity? The
             | public accounting ledger provides transparency and
             | auditability as a service which can reduce friction to
             | economic prosperity. Neither gold nor Bitcoin creates a fun
             | day at the beach - or whatever your measure of prosperity
             | may be.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | > Even if it did, I don't see what modern tech corps have to do
         | with anything - they didn't build the internet. Also, on age,
         | the early internet dates back to the 60s and was still
         | considered "early" 30+ years later.
         | 
         | I think the tech companies are relevant because they pivoted to
         | find useful applications on top of that basic infrastructure,
         | which the hundreds of blockchain companies have failed to do.
         | AOL made millions even even people were held up by dialup and
         | other limitations, for example, because things like chat were
         | popular and low bandwidth.
         | 
         | The early internet comparisons are complicated by the history
         | of computing - adoption was slow when computers filled a large
         | room and cost millions, for example - but I think that has a
         | similar story. Even when a PC cost as much as a car and you
         | were looking at 300 bps modems on phone lines billed by the
         | hour, people found things worth paying for and there were
         | profitable companies with fairly large subscriber bases by the
         | late 1970s. There were people who met online and were
         | grandparents before smartphones became common!
         | 
         | In contrast, blockchains were globally available on day one
         | with no constraints other than their design limitations.
         | There's no problem which you could point to like a telecom
         | monopoly, the severe hardware limitations prior to the mid-90s,
         | etc. which would keep popular usage low.
        
           | nightski wrote:
           | The limit on Bitcoin that I saw early on was market cap,
           | liquidity, and stability. As the first two rise, so should
           | the third. It's been a long grind to the market cap today and
           | it still has a ways to go.
           | 
           | But to build up that momentum and trust takes a lot of time.
           | 
           | I'm not necessarily saying Bitcoin should do this or that I
           | desire it. Just stating one reason why it takes time.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | I don't think it's that simple: Bitcoin is the purest form
             | of fiat currency backed by neither sovereign authority or
             | hard assets, and the deflationary model encourages hoarding
             | unless you're convinced it's permanently going down. That
             | combination seems likely to produce volatility even with
             | fairly large amounts of capital flowing in.
        
         | snarfy wrote:
         | Crypto is basically gambling, and gambling is alive and well.
         | This is why I don't see crypto dying anytime soon. It will die
         | when a better gamble comes along.
        
           | stephc_int13 wrote:
           | Crypto is inherently very different than gambling.
           | 
           | People have been doing highly speculative investment in many
           | different areas and this is clearly not something that will
           | die.
           | 
           | Crypto has been a fantastic vehicle for that because of the
           | hype and the lack of regulation, but this won't last, people
           | can't be fooled forever.
           | 
           | Of course there will be other vehicles, hopefully less
           | destructive than this one...
        
           | asdajksah2123 wrote:
           | Crypto in its current form is worse than gambling.
           | 
           | With gambling, unless it's illegally rigged, you know your
           | expected value will be say $0.90 for every $1 you put in.
           | 
           | However, in return, there is a possibility that you may have
           | a one in million chance of getting back $100 for the $1 you
           | put in.
           | 
           | Crypto, on the other hand, is a Ponzi scheme. It has no
           | internal value and the current owners of crypto are paid
           | entirely through the money brought in by the future owners of
           | crypto.
           | 
           | Now, to be completely fair, I don't think the majority of
           | crypto backers perceive it as a Ponzi scheme. There were many
           | people working in the space (maybe even the overwhelming
           | majority, although that's unlikely to be true anymore), who
           | actually believed that Bitcoin had real value because it
           | could become a real currency. Similarly, there are people who
           | actually believe that Smart Contracts, and NFTs are actual
           | useful technologies.
           | 
           | The problem, however, is that
           | 
           | (a) none of those technologies have panned out, possibly
           | because blockchain simply does not solve the problems people
           | actually face...it solves the problem of "What if the entity
           | who owns the database we are recording our transactions in is
           | unreliable". In practice, this does not seem to be a major
           | problem at all, and further, blockchain appears to be a
           | terrible way to solve this problem.
           | 
           | (b) Even if the technologies are useful, the limited tokens
           | and the fact that they are largely hoarded by early adopters,
           | simply serves to enrich those early adopters, which
           | drastically reduces the utility of any crypto based
           | technologies for future users, the ones who are actually
           | using the technology. Crypto tokens are an implicit tax on
           | technology. It would be like if Google was invented, but to
           | use Google you necessarily had to pay $0.10 every search, but
           | that cost is ridiculously dynamic, often jumping up to
           | $1/search as well. Google would never take off and it would
           | impose an insane tax on everyone else, and society as a
           | whole.
           | 
           | The latter is why crypto in its current form isn't just a
           | successful/unsuccessful tech, its an actively society
           | damaging technology.
        
             | landemva wrote:
             | > largely hoarded by early adopters
             | 
             | Agree with this in that chains like Solana and Ripple are
             | controlled by the startup folks or the big VCs. I avoid
             | these centralized money grabs.
        
       | SkyMarshal wrote:
       | Bitcoin has lost more than 80% of its value at least four times
       | in its short 10yr existence. It, and all other crypto, are highly
       | volatile. Every time they go through one of these stages, people
       | publish articles like these, asking if this time is the end.
       | 
       | But the builders just keep building, advancing the tech and
       | extending its capabilities. Largely because cryptocurrencies are
       | a fascinating engineering problem, which combine cryptography and
       | distributed systems in a way never done before, and which also
       | incorporate programming language theory, networking, computer and
       | network security, economics, and law into the mix. It's one of
       | the most multi-disciplinary technologies there is. Like catnip
       | for engineers, they just can't stop building this stuff.
        
         | throwoutway wrote:
         | Well there has always been a supply of victims (err investors*,
         | but after the last two crashes , what if the well has ran dry?
        
           | gota wrote:
           | Right. The real measure is not % of loss from top-value,
           | rather it should be # of people that both don't understand
           | the technology & have lost money speculating on it (i.e. how
           | many people bought into hype and got burned)
           | 
           | There's a finite amount of people to buy-in next cycle
        
         | ayngg wrote:
         | Articles like this all read the same way. Sure he can frame his
         | student as some kind of expert, but clearly if she is
         | referencing youtube videos about price action in crypto she
         | doesn't really have an understanding worth framing your
         | criticism around. For all of these articles, it feels
         | everyone's idea of crypto does not extend beyond dunking on
         | stuff dumb retail meme traders (who have no idea what is going
         | on) say on twitter instead of the people actually building the
         | technology. I'm not even an expert but even I can see the way
         | everyone approaches it in such poor faith is like building a
         | caricature of what they think crypto is to justify their
         | feelings towards it.
        
       | rafaelero wrote:
       | If the author didn't bother to mention central banks, monetary
       | policy or currency debasement in the article, I don't think he
       | quite gets the real value of Bitcoin.
        
       | sdfhdhjdw3 wrote:
       | > The current crash (...)
       | 
       | What I keep coming back to is that something worth zero is still
       | trading at $20k.
        
         | sshine wrote:
         | s/worth/that I value being worth/ :-)
         | 
         | If you want to make a private purchase online, not tied to your
         | identity, I really don't see a good alternative.
        
       | axg11 wrote:
       | I live in Canada and recently invested a small amount in a
       | startup via AngelList RUV. There were two funding options: (1)
       | wire transfer, (2) transfer USDC via Ethereum network. One of
       | these options is cheaper, faster, and more flexible than the
       | other.
       | 
       | Crypto has long been criticized for being gambling and lacking
       | utility. I think utility is finally trickling in, although
       | currently in limited settings. If you look at _all_ of crypto
       | from afar, there is a lot of noise and bullshit. If you zoom into
       | the right applications, there are use cases that are gaining
       | product market fit.
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | International transfers might be different but for domestic
         | transfers, most countries outside of the west have very robust
         | systems already. India's UPI puts any crypto alternative to
         | shame with the speed, transaction volume, fees and ease of use.
         | 
         | Sending someone USDC for international payments is admittedly
         | much easier, but you're likely going to run into expensive
         | regulation on that front since it carries too much money
         | laundering risk
        
         | pavlov wrote:
         | Wire transfers in North America are literally 40 years behind
         | the evolution of bank transfers in EU and UK.
         | 
         | Sending money in Europe is free and increasingly often
         | instantaneous 24/7. It will be very difficult for crypto to
         | reach the level of convenience available on unified
         | infrastructure created through sensible regulation. Lacking
         | that, maybe Americans will have to keep settling for all these
         | clunky, incompatible intermediated patchwork solutions like
         | Zelle and Venmo and USDC-on-Ethereum and whatever.
        
           | kerng wrote:
           | Maybe it will be like with China and cedit card usage. China
           | just skipped credit cards and does everything in phone. They
           | were behind, now they are leading the pack. Countries
           | embracing crypto could go similar route.
        
             | FalconSensei wrote:
             | another way to read that is that you are not able to get
             | food if your phone dies
        
           | axg11 wrote:
           | That's the point! Locally, there are great options almost
           | everywhere. In Canada, I can e-transfer (Interac) anyone and
           | the transfer is ~instant. Across borders the solutions are
           | much worse. Crypto is the only payment rail that can
           | realistically reach _everywhere_.
        
           | FabHK wrote:
           | I think Paypal only got off the ground because the US banking
           | system is so amazingly awful (compared to, say, continental
           | Europe). Somewhat sad that it still seems to be the case.
        
           | dghlsakjg wrote:
           | He lives in Canada.
           | 
           | Canadians don't live in the same country as Americans.
           | 
           | Canadians don't have the same banks as Americans.
           | 
           | Canadians can do money transfers instantly between any bank
           | using e-transfer.
           | 
           | He was talking about transferring money out of the Canadian
           | network of banks to a foreign entity (guessing based on it
           | being denominated in USD).
           | 
           | As a European can you transfer money to, say, Vietnam without
           | using clunky 40 year old technology like wires?
        
             | Commodore63 wrote:
             | The settlement delay isn't there for technological reasons.
             | People think they want instant! fast! until they lose their
             | life savings because libertarian tech has no buffers.
        
               | anony23 wrote:
               | I thought the settlement delay was so that the banks can
               | squeeze out 72 more hours of interest.
        
           | xur17 wrote:
           | > Sending money in Europe is free and increasingly often
           | instantaneous 24/7. It will be very difficult for crypto to
           | reach the level of convenience available on unified
           | infrastructure created through sensible regulation. Lacking
           | that, maybe Americans will have to keep settling for all
           | these clunky, incompatible intermediated patchwork solutions
           | like Zelle and Venmo and USDC-on-Ethereum and whatever.
           | 
           | While true, I do think there is value in a permissionless
           | protocol that anyone can plug into like this. Anyone in the
           | world can send USDC to someone else (and any bank can
           | integrate with this). The same can't be said for banking
           | systems.
        
             | closewith wrote:
             | While there is value in the avoidance of Anti-Money
             | Laundering and Know Your Customer regulations, it's also
             | not a feature that bodes well for the future lawfulness of
             | the ecosystem.
        
           | sdfhdhjdw3 wrote:
           | Sending money in the UK is faster than it takes me to open
           | the app on the phone to confirm it went thru.
        
           | sidpatil wrote:
           | > Lacking that, maybe Americans will have to keep settling
           | for all these clunky, incompatible intermediated patchwork
           | solutions like Zelle and Venmo and USDC-on-Ethereum and
           | whatever.
           | 
           | FedNow is supposed to launch in 2023.
           | 
           | https://www.frbservices.org/financial-
           | services/fednow/about....
        
           | ciupicri wrote:
           | We must have different definitions of Europe because I live
           | in Romania (which has been a member of the European Union
           | since 2007) and yet even national transfers are not
           | instantaneous if you're doing them in the evening, not to
           | mention the weekend. And don't get me started with transfers
           | to other European countries.
           | 
           | I also think you meant cheap, not free. By the way I find it
           | funny that some banks tax the receiver, so in order to get
           | money, you have to lose money :-)
        
           | dcolkitt wrote:
           | But that's the point, crypto is a coordination mechanism that
           | in most cases serves as an alternative when you don't have
           | effective and trustworthy centralized institutions. It's
           | pretty clear that (in this case) European financial
           | regulators did a good job coordinating an effective and
           | efficient electronic money transmission system.
           | 
           | But the whole world is not Sweden. Even in America, which is
           | relatively first world with relatively decent institutions,
           | our regulators failed to coordinate a decent electronic money
           | transmission system. Now imagine being in Turkey or LatAm or
           | Sri Lanka. (Or even just being in Europe and needing to
           | interface with anywhere outside the European utopia.) Agree
           | that decentralized protocols come with many inherent
           | inefficiencies and frictions. But when institutions fail, the
           | only alternative are decentralized protocols.
           | 
           | In many ways I see the pro- vs. anti- crypto division coming
           | down to how much people believe in institutions. Most crypto
           | criticisms come down to an appeal to just focus on building
           | better institutions rather than waste mountains of talent on
           | overly complex decentralized protocols. " _Instead of all
           | this on-chain stablecoin nonsense, why don 't we focus our
           | efforts on electing better financial regulators, who can
           | bring European like money transfers to North America and
           | eventually the globe_?"
           | 
           | Whereas I think pro-crypto people (myself included), tend to
           | think of any attempts to change public policy as /dev/null.
           | Most of the world is saddled with horribly dysfunctional
           | institutions, and it's not easy to fix. I have much more
           | confidence in our ability to engineer solutions than
           | mustering the necessary political and social coordination
           | necessary to fix governments, policy, regulators and
           | institutions.
        
             | yunohn wrote:
             | If it's mainly about transferring money between
             | participants, what is the point of each token having its
             | own speculative value? Shouldn't crypto be just stablecoins
             | then?
        
             | FabHK wrote:
             | Good analysis, and you are right. I think purely technical
             | attempts to solve current political/social problems are
             | doomed, while better institutions can and have been built.
             | 
             | Now, what makes you think that the regulators in well-run
             | countries will continue to accept this inefficient and
             | unregulated money alternative full of scams?
             | 
             | Crypto currencies could be banned to quite an extent
             | (mining, on/off ramps, maybe even the network traffic,
             | which is unencrypted, if I am not mistaken.)
        
               | peyton wrote:
               | It's banned in China AFAIK and people seem to use it
               | there all the time.
        
               | aeternum wrote:
               | Those countries that ban it will miss out on the economic
               | value. Just as those countries that banned or did not
               | invest in early internet infrastructure (for similar
               | reasons) are now significantly behind.
        
         | aNoob7000 wrote:
         | It is easier for me to call my bank and initiate a wire
         | transfer than it is to transfer money via USDC.
         | 
         | I think the assumption a lot of people in crypto make is that
         | everyone has a crypto account/wallet setup.
        
           | axg11 wrote:
           | Do you live in North America? I would challenge anyone in
           | Canada/US that claims it's easier to initiate a wire transfer
           | (with zero ability to track progress) vs. send USDC to an ETH
           | address.
        
             | gaspard234 wrote:
             | I'll take you up on that challenge. I can open open up my
             | Wells Fargo app and initiate a wire transfer within 5
             | minutes. In fact, I sent $1000 to a home contractors bank
             | account earlier this week for no fee. And yes, WF sent me
             | email updates of the status. I will concede it took 1
             | business day though.
             | 
             | How do I send USDC within 5 mins? I would have to 1) Open
             | an account on a crypto exchange app
             | 
             | 2) Go through the KYC process and hookup the same wells
             | fargo account to buy USDC.
             | 
             | 3) Purchase USDC, usually while paying a fee. And then
             | still wait the day for the funds to be sent from WF to the
             | exchange.
             | 
             | 4) Send USDC to address, while also paying a fee.
             | 
             | There is a reason international remittances haven't worked
             | as a use case, for ex Coinbase just closed down that entire
             | project. How would immigrants who get paid in Cash buy USDC
             | and how would their family in Mexico or El Salvador be able
             | to convert that USDC into local spendable currency. I hate
             | western union but it works better than any crypto money
             | sending service.
        
               | anony23 wrote:
               | If you count the time for opening an exchange account and
               | doing kyc, you should do the same when you talk about
               | your bank. You only have to open the exchange account
               | once just like you do for your bank. After that it's
               | definitely cheaper and faster to send crypto. Whether or
               | not it's as secure depends on what bank we are comparing
               | to.
        
             | gamblor956 wrote:
             | Done.
             | 
             | Opened bank website, selected "Transfer Money", entered the
             | recipient and confirmed the amount. Got an email
             | notification, and when the wire transfer clears we will
             | receive a second email. This is pretty standard for the
             | major US banks.
             | 
             | It's like people in crypto have never actually tried to use
             | existing money transfer methods and just make up problems
             | that don't actually exist.
        
           | vagab0nd wrote:
           | For me it's the opposite. I don't want to talk to someone in
           | order to send money. Also, you never know how long/much it'll
           | take to wire. Sometimes it's done free on the same day, other
           | times it gets double charged and takes 2 days for the money
           | to arrive.
        
           | iamnotarobotman wrote:
           | For those in Canada, the banks and telephone lines were all
           | down at one point. Even if you were on a different internet
           | provider that was up, you bank would still be down.
           | 
           | So the 'call my bank' option won't work here and wire
           | transfer is no different to transferring money in crypto as
           | they are both irreversible.
           | 
           | But I don't know how entering a .eth/.sol/etc address or
           | scanning a QR code to send USDC over is harder than typing in
           | the sort code, account number, IBAN number, etc to do a wire
           | transfer.
        
             | UncleMeat wrote:
             | > But I don't know how entering a .eth/.sol/etc address or
             | scanning a QR code to send USDC over is harder than typing
             | in the sort code, account number, IBAN number, etc to do a
             | wire transfer.
             | 
             | Because I don't possess any USDC and acquiring some
             | requires me to open an account with Coinbase or FTX or
             | whatever, send _them_ dollars, and then purchase USDC. And
             | even though sending the USDC has a low fee, the exchange
             | fee for purchasing USDC is nontrivial (1% at Coinbase).
        
               | jimgo84 wrote:
               | The fee part is incorrect. Coinbase offers 1:1 exchanges
               | of USD<>USDC with zero fee. On FTX it's the same, USDC
               | and USD are treated 1:1 with no fee to convert. Deposit
               | dollars, withdraw USDC or vice versa. Aside from these
               | zero fee exchanges, many others have significantly lower
               | fees for stablecoin<>fiat than they do for crypto<>fiat.
        
               | UncleMeat wrote:
               | Fair enough. Still a nontrivial process for me to get any
               | USDC.
        
         | nailer wrote:
         | Ethereum's famously expensive and slow though.
        
           | dcolkitt wrote:
           | Just raised a funding round, and about half the investors
           | used USDC and half used wire transfers.
           | 
           | On "famously expensive and slow" Ethereum, the USDC transfers
           | took 15 seconds and cost under $2. Oh and even better, I was
           | able to just use a simple human readable [X].eth address,
           | instead of an incomprehensible string of routing number
           | digits.
        
             | nailer wrote:
             | Gas is pretty cheap right now as there's little network
             | activity due to crypto winter - people are holding their
             | crypto.
             | 
             | And yes 15 seconds is slow.
             | 
             | Indeed, a human readable address is nice if you trust
             | whoever gave it to you (ENS is naming not identity, someone
             | else can register dcolkitt.eth or dcolkit.eth or
             | dcollkit.eth if they like).
             | 
             | There's some good bits and some bad bits. Not advocating
             | for or against crypto.
        
               | ChadNauseam wrote:
               | If you think 15 seconds for Ethereum is slow, you'll hate
               | wire transfers
        
           | christophilus wrote:
           | And yet it was faster / cheaper / easier for the OP vs the
           | traditional banking mechanisms. That says more about the US
           | and Canadian banks than anything else.
        
             | nailer wrote:
             | > I live in Canada and recently invested a small amount in
             | a startup via AngelList RUV. There were two funding
             | options: (1) wire transfer, (2) transfer USDC via Ethereum
             | network. One of these options is cheaper, faster, and more
             | flexible than the other.
             | 
             | Oh I didn't know that's what the answer was. Having used
             | both (and living in Europe), I'd thought the 'cheaper,
             | faster' option OP mentioned was a modern wire transfer
             | service.
        
             | sebastiansm wrote:
             | How did it happen? A country that generates so much
             | innovation and lacks quality in his basics systems.
        
         | jjoonathan wrote:
         | It's difficult to comprehend just how bad traditional finance
         | is at this unless you regularly experience it. No, I'm not
         | talking about chafing under regulations against doing crime --
         | the number of unforced idiotic bureaucratic errors is
         | absolutely off the charts, in addition to being very slow and
         | very expensive.
        
         | jqpabc123 wrote:
         | _If you zoom into the right applications, there are use cases
         | that are gaining product market fit._
         | 
         | A CBDC will supplant most use cases for crypto simply by being
         | a practical currency.
         | 
         | What will be left is pretty much what you have now --- criminal
         | activity, anarchist cult and naive speculation.
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | And even in countries with more useful wire transfer, you
         | wouldn't buy drugs with them.
        
         | RandomWorker wrote:
         | I haven't used wire transfers in 10 years. Costs were around
         | $30 for each $1000 at the time. I use wise.com, and it's less
         | than $3 per $1000. It's gotten cheaper as well over time I've
         | used the service. Not sure if they use crypto in the background
         | but they certainly don't advertise it.
        
         | fabian2k wrote:
         | There are probably large differences between countries here,
         | but for me a wire transfer would clearly be the cheaper and
         | easier option. They don't cost anything in fees. Speed is not
         | that great, but usually good enough.
         | 
         | Another option that is often very convenient is the
         | "Lastschrift", I can simply grant a company permission to
         | withdraw money from my account. The protections for the
         | customer are very strong with this, I can revert any withdrawal
         | without any reason, so this is essentially no risk for me.
        
         | unicornmama wrote:
         | In Switzerland it costs me zero to transfer CHF.
        
           | axg11 wrote:
           | With one single integration, AngelList can receive USDC from
           | anyone, anywhere in the world. It doesn't matter if you can
           | transfer CHF very cheaply locally.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | Kind of like how having a bank account allows you to
             | receive wire transfers from anyone? Anything will sound
             | simple if you leave out most of the hard parts like meeting
             | legal requirements, fraud protection, etc. (better hope the
             | reason USDC is cagey about their assets isn't because
             | they're hiding something)
             | 
             | It's true that US banks are slower at transfers but most
             | people don't hit that often enough to balance out the extra
             | cost and risk, and if they started losing significant
             | amounts of business it's a lot easier to improve there than
             | it is to duct-tape performance, privacy, or fraud
             | protection onto a blockchain.
        
               | kareemsabri wrote:
               | USDC isn't cagey about their assets. They get audited by
               | big-4 financial firms regularly. I don't own a single
               | coin and I know that.
        
               | Jetrel wrote:
               | Yeah.
               | 
               | I get pretty tilted when people complain about the
               | banking system, because most of the "problems" they're
               | complaining about are features. A really good metaphor is
               | a programmer complaining about being forced to use a
               | version control system, and wishing they could just
               | dispense with all this pointless waste of time. "All this
               | thing does is cause me trouble" -- well, yeah, because
               | you've never experienced the problems it utterly
               | eradicated.
               | 
               | It's a Chesterton's fence issue at best. At worst, it's
               | wolves repealing the laws that prohibit eating sheep.
        
             | unicornmama wrote:
             | I've on/off ramped CHF to USDC. It's a pain in the ass. And
             | you lose 1% in process. Certainly not easier than a
             | CHF->USD wire.
        
           | sshine wrote:
           | This is the story in most countries with good economies:
           | Local transfers are free for private individuals up to a
           | certain amount. Exceed the bounds and you'll be offered a
           | paid solution. So if one end of this system pays for the
           | other, and the other thinks it's free, you're just paying
           | indirectly via price adjustments.
           | 
           | Receiving CHF (Swiss Francs) via an IBAN transfer 1) cost a
           | lot, 2) take several days.
           | 
           | Switching to a traditional money transfer provider requires
           | KYC'ing.
           | 
           | I was once denied because my website seemed sketchy. It just
           | has my company's name and a link to my personal homepage. I
           | already have customers, so my first motivation to create a
           | website was so that money transfer providers think I'm
           | actually running a business and will allow payments.
        
         | Commodore63 wrote:
         | It's the latter, right? I can wire USD hundreds of thousands
         | from my bank for $25, and the transaction takes place within an
         | hour or two.
        
       | somewhereoutth wrote:
       | Cryptaceous Extinction Event. Hopefully anything that makes it
       | through will actually be beneficial to the world.
        
       | jqpabc123 wrote:
       | Crypto is a system of perfect logic built on the foundation of a
       | few flawed assumptions.
       | 
       | Relying on YouTube videos that anyone can create is highly
       | suspect and should be easily recognized as a logical
       | discrepancy/potential fallacy by otherwise intelligent technical
       | people.
       | 
       | The fact that it is not points out a huge hole in their
       | education, reasoning and thinking process. It is the end result
       | of being highly trained but poorly educated in my opinion. Quite
       | simply, many crypto cultists failed to grasp the overall limits
       | of their own knowledge and control and paid a heavy price for it.
        
       | mypastself wrote:
       | Sure, "blockchain is just like the early internet" is a bad
       | argument, and one that's used by some proponents. But if you give
       | it a more charitable interpretation, such as "Not all successful
       | technology is widely adopted within a decade of its inception",
       | it's not quite as easy to knock down. Even VR went through (is
       | still going through?) a long winter.
       | 
       | The rest of the points are in a similar vein, picking the worst,
       | most literal interpretations of the arguments. Of course only
       | gold is gold, the argument is that Bitcoin might be used as
       | reserve currency.
        
       | stephc_int13 wrote:
       | This is all very simple in practice, the blockchain is barely
       | useful, crypto coins and NFTs have very low utility.
       | 
       | At some point value and utility always converge.
       | 
       | A good heuristic to predict the value of something: would you get
       | them if they were free of charge?
       | 
       | The only difficult thing is to predict when the convergence
       | occurs.
       | 
       | The asymptotic value of Bitcoin is $0.
        
         | deepu256 wrote:
         | "This is all very simple in practice, the blockchain is barely
         | useful, crypto coins and NFTs have very low utility"
         | 
         | Yes. FOR NOW. But public decentralised blockchains have
         | interesting properties (enabling ownership , Liquidity ,
         | composability) and lots of smart people are trying to use those
         | properties to build interesting apps.
         | 
         | These apps are not there yet. I am optimistic that some good
         | apps will be launched in next few years that make use of those
         | unique properties enabled by decentralised public blockchains.
        
           | p4bl0 wrote:
           | The _only_ thing a blockchain can do is a cryptocurrency.
           | 
           | The cryptocurrency is the only application that works because
           | transactions are _performative writings_ on the blockchain:
           | they _define_ truth. Once it is written on a blockchain that
           | Alice has transferred X tokens to Bob, it instantly becomes a
           | fact by definition, so you can trust what is written on the
           | blockchain.
           | 
           | In _any_ other application, what 's written on the blockchain
           | concerns stuff that are external to it. And what's written
           | can thus only be valid if an external (and necessarily
           | trusted, whether you want it or not) third-party can enforce
           | or make what's written on the blockchain to be true. This
           | means that any other application cannot actually exists in
           | the decentralized and fully adversarial setting that would
           | require the use of a blockchain: there is always another,
           | more simple, more elegant, more efficient solution that can
           | be built on top of the trust that _must_ exists somewhere to
           | make things work.
           | 
           | Also, a blockchain _needs_ its cryptocurrency to actually
           | work because there has to be an incentive to participate in
           | the consensus mechanism whether it is PoW ou PoS or other
           | variants, and the incentive cannot be external to the
           | blockchain otherwise you need to trust the third-party which
           | controls it.
           | 
           | Blockchains and cryptocurrencies are basically the solution
           | to their own problem, and to nothing else.
        
             | nprateem wrote:
             | Particl has created a decentralised anonymous marketplace
             | that uses a smart contract to provide escrow between two
             | untrusted parties.
             | 
             | There are bound to be other possible applications. Writing
             | off an entire new tech because you can't think of them is
             | just narrow minded and silly.
        
               | Wertigoyr wrote:
               | But that's the point he made. It's not Blockchain it's
               | Blockchain + escrow.
               | 
               | Escrow needs a third party. It destroys all your
               | Blockchain advantage.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | FabHK wrote:
             | aka the oracle problem. Indeed.
        
           | blueflow wrote:
           | These properties aren't unique, they can be achieved using
           | regular asymmetric cryptography. For like, 45 years now.
        
             | deepu256 wrote:
             | Ok, then show me a credible 3rd Party where I can store my
             | ownership data apart from Government. (Most corporations
             | which currently store my data proved that they cannot be
             | trusted and they only look after their shareholders. Not
             | users.)
        
               | p4bl0 wrote:
               | > show me a credible 3rd Party where I can store my
               | ownership data apart from Government
               | 
               | Your "ownership data" does not have any intrinsic value.
               | It only has value because an external authority (your
               | Government's justice institutions) is able to enforce it.
               | 
               | Writing something on a blockchain has no magical effect.
               | You cannot remove necessary third-parties like that.
               | 
               | > Most corporations which currently store my data proved
               | that they cannot be trusted and they only look after
               | their shareholders. Not users.
               | 
               | True, but unrelated.
        
               | deepu256 wrote:
               | "My ownership data" has value. perhaps not to you. But
               | for people i interact with.
               | 
               | Example :- My education degree is something that I own.
               | It can be very useful if I can quickly prove to the world
               | that I indeed really have that degree. (like Twitter
               | allows to prove you own an avatar NFT) . It would be
               | super helpful if this was on a blockchain instead of some
               | university database with a cumbersome process to avail
               | transcripts.
        
               | p4bl0 wrote:
               | > "My ownership data" has value. perhaps not to you. But
               | for people i interact with.
               | 
               | I don't think you understood what I meant. I said it has
               | no _intrinsic_ value, meaning that it has no value _in
               | itself_.
               | 
               | > My education degree is something that I own. It can be
               | very useful if I can quickly prove to the world that I
               | indeed really have that degree.
               | 
               | The fact that it is written in a blockchain that you have
               | a degree has no value in itself, it only works if a
               | necessary trusted third-party, the university where you
               | got that degree, approves it. You are not in a
               | decentralized and fully adversarial setting. You do not
               | need (nor want, for efficiency purpose mainly) a
               | blockchain to solve this problem.
               | 
               | What you want is a cryptographic certificate (just like
               | an X.509 SSL/TLS certificate) of your diploma signed by
               | your university, which would play the role of a
               | Certificate Authority, and which you can trust because
               | the government that accredited your university to deliver
               | actual diplomas has a root certificate (it acts as a
               | Trusted Certificate Authority) and has signed the one of
               | your university with it.
               | 
               | > like Twitter allows to prove you own an avatar NFT
               | 
               | Twitter is a central authority and could very well
               | associate any "NFT avatar" with any of its users without
               | relying on any blockchain.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | Right, but think about what happens if there's some
               | question - say you ran for office and your opponent says
               | you're lying about your degree or GPA.
               | 
               | People will trust the institution - if a reporter calls
               | them and they say "yes, they earned it" most people will
               | not question it. If they say "never heard of them", a
               | record on a blockchain won't help much because it
               | disagrees with the canonical source and then you'll be
               | hearing about how that degree record was published in
               | error or fraudulently, or that school is a diploma mill,
               | etc.
               | 
               | Electronic records are nice but a 1970s public key
               | signature works just as well at a fraction of the cost
               | because ultimately it comes down to whether or not the
               | reader trusts the issuer.
        
               | blueflow wrote:
               | Good example of a signature! The institution who awarded
               | you the degree should sign it. They are the authoritative
               | source of this information. Everyone who trusts the
               | institution will be able to verify your copy of the
               | signed document. No communication to the institution
               | necessary.
        
           | stephc_int13 wrote:
           | People have been saying that for quite some time now, but I
           | don't see it.
           | 
           | Why is it so difficult to find utility with this "tech"?
           | 
           | As long are you are not a criminal, ownership and liquidity
           | are not huge pain, what is the real, tangible benefit of
           | decentralized banking?
           | 
           | I am not convinced that monetary transactions should be above
           | the Law, and for them to be lawful they have to be centrally
           | regulated in some ways.
        
             | deepu256 wrote:
             | It's difficult because blockchains have not yet scaled the
             | infra yet. The amount of data that we can currently put on
             | most decentralised chains is very less. This will improve
             | though and allow us to put a decent amount of data on the
             | blockchain.
        
               | p4bl0 wrote:
               | This will never solve the oracle problem, which is tied
               | to the simple fact that things can happen outside of a
               | given blockchain...
        
             | deepu256 wrote:
             | "As long are you are not a criminal, ownership and
             | liquidity are not huge pain, what is the real, tangible
             | benefit of decentralized banking?"
             | 
             | Capital formation for any common purpose without trusting
             | 3rd parties. As an example -> there are some NFT vault DAOs
             | where strangers pool together to purchase NFTs that are too
             | costly. People Vote on proposals regarding which NFT to
             | acquire and when.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | This value of this kind of thing depends on NFTs having
               | value, which I would dispute. As soon as a DAO tries to
               | buy anything in meatspace (a house, a painting, a book),
               | you're back to an oracle problem where _someone_ has to
               | be trusted with the custody or upkeep of the physical
               | item and no amount of DAO votes can force them to do
               | something they don 't want to do.
        
       | jonfw wrote:
       | crypto climate change
        
       | noasaservice wrote:
       | Hopefully crypto earth-destroying-comet.
        
       | bluepoint wrote:
       | > Concluding, will crypto die? Not likely, these things are like
       | vampires, they seem to always rise up again from the dead.
       | 
       | A bit off topic but I would like to read more examples of
       | technological vampires or zombies!
        
       | spaceman_2020 wrote:
       | Crypto isn't going to die until human greed dies.
       | 
       | VCs are pouring money into this space. Do they care about
       | adoption? Nope. They know that this largely unregulated,
       | liquidity challenged space that's too technically complex for the
       | average rube is the perfect ground to make wild, wild returns.
       | 
       | Unless something changes drastically on the regulation front, the
       | story will repeat itself. VCs and early adopters will buy tokens
       | in the "ice age".
       | 
       | Come next cycle, the media will start hyping up crypto again,
       | bringing the retail rubes pouring in. And then the VCs and early
       | adopters will walk away with their 50x returns, leaving retail
       | with the bags
        
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