[HN Gopher] Historical language records show surge of cognitive ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Historical language records show surge of cognitive distortion in
       recent decades
        
       Author : gumby
       Score  : 206 points
       Date   : 2022-07-08 00:10 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.pnas.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.pnas.org)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | antognini wrote:
       | I wonder if there's a confounding effect here. The authors
       | basically have a list of N-grams that they have identified as
       | being indicative of cognitive distortions and find that these
       | N-grams have become much more prevalent in the last few decades.
       | But the selection of these N-grams is based on how we, today,
       | would express these cognitive distortions. It doesn't seem that
       | the could rule out the rate of cognitive distortions remaining
       | the same, but the language to express them changing.
       | 
       | To be fair, looking at their table of N-grams, a lot of them seem
       | pretty timeless. For example: everyone, everybody, should, ought,
       | must, worst, best.
       | 
       | But many of the N-grams strike me as being rather modern
       | formulations. For example: a loser, a toxic, OK but, OK yet.
       | 
       | If a team of CBT therapists constructed such a list in 1900
       | instead of 2020, would we see the prevalence of cognitive
       | distortions decrease as our language changed?
       | 
       | I think they try to control for this by choosing a null set of
       | random N-grams, but the random N-grams were chosen from their
       | entire corpus --- in other words by definition it's
       | representative of the entire time span.
       | 
       | Edit: As an example of this, the authors include in their sample
       | of words indicative of cognitive distortions "everyone" and
       | "everybody." But 200 years ago these formulations were much less
       | popular than "all the world," which is not included in the
       | author's sample. If you just include the modern words, it's no
       | surprise that cognitive distortions are increasing. But if you
       | made the list in 1800 and only included the older formulation,
       | you would conclude that cognitive distortions are _decreasing_.
       | 
       | https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=everybody%2Cal...
        
         | darkerside wrote:
         | Where did they find the text samples? It strikes me that the
         | corpus of informal text samples has skyrocketed in the past two
         | decades.
         | 
         | Remind me of how most heat maps are just population density
         | maps.
        
           | cycomanic wrote:
           | Google books it says so in the article
        
           | permo-w wrote:
           | >informal text
           | 
           | informal and by less educated people. obviously there will be
           | big exceptions, but I would imagine the % of computer-indexed
           | text (i.e. books and newspapers) from between 1895 and 1995
           | that _wasn 't_ written by someone with a degree is not very
           | high. similar to the way you can get a distorted view of the
           | Romans (or nearly any literate historical society) because
           | nearly (if not) all of their literature was written by the
           | educated upper classes
        
           | antognini wrote:
           | It's the Google N-grams dataset. It covers all the books that
           | Google has scanned in their corpus, which, as I understand
           | it, is virtually every book that's been published in the 20th
           | century (at least for English).
           | 
           | I agree that this might just be measuring increasing
           | informality in published works.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | This could also be a bias in the google books dataset. As I
             | recall, the older google books dataset relied heavily on
             | library preservation. It's probable that library curation
             | would filter books for utility, longevity, and educational
             | purpose. These filters would certainly penalize informal
             | books.
        
             | TimTheTinker wrote:
             | My first thought as I scanned the abstract was that since
             | the '90s, the volume of novels with informal dialog has
             | gone through the roof -- especially novels for teens and
             | young adults.
        
               | permo-w wrote:
               | the amount of trashy celebrity autobiographies/books
               | written by self-help gurus/informal-style recipe books
               | being published has almost certainly risen in recent
               | years too
        
         | cycomanic wrote:
         | I think the authors acknowledge that. And I agree with you this
         | definitely should be investigated further. Also I have not read
         | ref 17 yet, but I don't know how well established the method of
         | identifying cognitive dissonance through ngrams is.
        
         | pedrosbmartins wrote:
         | I believe they tackle this exact bias. From the Sampling
         | Effects section:
         | 
         | > _Second, the choice of CDS n-grams could lead to a "recency
         | bias" in our results, explaining their rise in prevalence in
         | recent decades. We control for this effect with a null model
         | that samples random n-grams more frequently from recent books,
         | due to rapidly increasing publication volume since 1895,
         | thereby inducing a bias toward more recent language. We observe
         | increases of CDS n-gram prevalence well above levels predicted
         | by this null model_
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | They also address this to some degree in the _Language
           | effects_ section.
        
           | bryanrasmussen wrote:
           | > thereby inducing a bias toward more recent language. We
           | observe increases of CDS n-gram prevalence well above levels
           | predicted by this null model
           | 
           | I don't get why this would work? I get the null model
           | predicting a bias X, and I guess they have a greater bias X +
           | Y, but I don't see how that handles their choice of cognitive
           | distortion signifiers being biased? I mean isn't it likely
           | their choice of signifiers matches to Y?
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | they are claiming that their basket of distortion N-Grams
             | became more common _faster_ than other randomly sampled
             | n-grams from recent works.
             | 
             | This seems like an interesting approach to controlling for
             | the bias, but I'd expect the random sampling would bias
             | lower than a specific sample as a random sampling of
             | n-grams would pick up a lot of english grammar which hasn't
             | changed in many years.
        
         | permo-w wrote:
         | are "OK but" and "OK yet" new formulations? "Okay" is an
         | Americanism from the early mid 1800s that started to be used in
         | its current form in the late 1800s. are the "but" and "yet"
         | attachments genuinely new or recent?
        
       | hansword wrote:
       | Neoliberalism isn't actually great for human? Who would have
       | thought...?
       | 
       | Living when 'there is no such thing as society' makes you feel
       | alone? Such surprise!
       | 
       | Isolating people, destroying communities, and pushing everyone to
       | look out for themselves turns out to have negative effects?
       | suprisepikachuface.png
       | 
       | (Having said all of that, there needs to be more than one study.)
        
         | edgyquant wrote:
         | Everything I dislike is neoliberalism
        
           | the_only_law wrote:
           | I think it's both funny and frustrating to see an already
           | meaningless word become moreso.
        
         | fho wrote:
         | Hey! I don't know if you remember, but I found out what that
         | red gravel on playgrounds was about:
         | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kieselrot (only in German, but if
         | you heard about the topic you are probably from here too).
         | 
         | (I couldn't reply in the old thread anymore ... so I hijack
         | this comment)
        
           | hansword wrote:
           | Yes, I remember that! My childhood football club had their
           | pitch in Kieselrot. And now that I read the article it is
           | coming back. The pitch was closed for several months, but we
           | weren't told why....
           | 
           | Oh, thanks so much! Have a great day!
        
       | karaterobot wrote:
       | > Here, we leverage the connection between depression and
       | language to investigate whether societies as a whole, similar to
       | individuals with depression, can undergo changes in their
       | collective language that are associated with cognitive
       | distortions.
       | 
       | ...
       | 
       | > We caution that we make no causal claims with respect to the
       | relationship between lexical markers, cognitive distortions, and
       | internalizing disorders, and the above comments therefore
       | constitute speculations that we hope may inspire follow-up
       | research.
       | 
       | Hmm, sure seems like exactly what they are trying to imply is
       | that whole societies can be diagnosed with depression by lexical
       | analysis. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what it means to say that
       | a society has depression. Feels like there is indeed follow-up
       | research to do on this, though I'd have liked if it were done
       | first.
        
         | nonrandomstring wrote:
         | > Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what it means to say that a
         | society has depression.
         | 
         | This is a key question. I'll take a punt: It's not that a
         | societal depression is the sum total of individuals feeling
         | glum. To say "society is in depression" is more like economic
         | depression, rather than "everyone in society is depressed"
         | (though that might be a consequence).
         | 
         | In a depressed society things stop functioning. Like
         | institutions, health, education, law...
         | 
         | In an economic depression it's a "chemical imbalance" of money
         | not circulating.
         | 
         | In a societal depression it's a breakdown of ideas circulating
         | (and that includes "ideologies" and "emotional ideas" like
         | generosity, and diversity.
         | 
         | There are many enemies of intellectual life that corrode
         | innovation, hope, vision and the life-blood a civilisation
         | needs to flourish (as opposed to soulless technocratic
         | subsistence). The Greeks called that force Thanatos. I do
         | believe its ascendency is connected to technology and our
         | inability to master it. Valery Legasov, like myself, was a
         | stanch opponent of the folly of "technological determinism" and
         | said that "people must take control of technology, not the
         | other about about, if civilisation is to survive" [1].
         | 
         | [1] In reaction to the Chernobyl disaster.
        
           | karaterobot wrote:
           | But none of that is established in the literature they're
           | drawing from when they say that certain n-grams are
           | associated with cognitive distortions related to depression.
           | When they say 'cognitive distortion', they're very
           | specifically talking about depression in the psychological
           | sense, not the economic sense, or the cultural sense. That's
           | why they'd have to establish that whole societies functioned
           | like individuals -- not in a poetic sense, but in a literal
           | sense. Very hard to do that, and nobody has to my knowledge.
           | This is the kind of thing you could say in an opinion piece,
           | but not a research paper.
        
             | nonrandomstring wrote:
             | > That's why they'd have to establish that whole societies
             | functioned like individuals -- not in a poetic sense, but
             | in a literal sense. Very hard to do that, and nobody has to
             | my knowledge.
             | 
             | Indeed. I'm (hopefully) clearly extending the
             | interpretation well beyond the scope of that paper, which I
             | took on face value to be unsatisfactory. I'm not quite sure
             | what you mean by "establish" but the analog of "society of
             | mind" (not just Minsky's take) as emergent of faculties at
             | both neurological and human organisational levels is old
             | and appears in many forms throughout philosophy and
             | political theory. "Poetry" would be the highest complement,
             | but alas I am too clumsy with words for that.
        
       | m0llusk wrote:
       | It looks like the steep upward curve starts about when the
       | Internet and social media became broadly available. That could be
       | involved, though it could also be something less obvious like
       | changes to use of language or acceptability of bearing emotions
       | in public.
        
       | cs137 wrote:
       | The good news is that _some_ of this is publication bias, not a
       | devolution of public mental health. Before about 1960, the lower
       | classes had almost no chance of getting their words into the
       | written record. Did 7th-century serfs see themselves as oppressed
       | and miserable, or did they love their masters? We don 't know; we
       | have no record of what they actually thought.
       | 
       | Therefore, we aren't _necessarily_ in uncharted territory when it
       | comes to lousy public mental health; it 's possible that we were
       | worse off in the 1930s and '40s and wouldn't know it by the data,
       | because the most put-upon and miserable people weren't writing at
       | all.
       | 
       | This doesn't explain the uptick since 1980. Moreover, since then,
       | publishing (at least, traditional publishing) has reversed the
       | changes of the midcentury and returned to being elite and
       | exclusionary (albeit, in a different way) and yet we haven't seen
       | this sort of censorship effect (and, to be honest, I'm glad we
       | haven't, simply because I'm no fan of censorship). This
       | establishes with high confidence that public mental health has
       | worsened at least in the past 40 years (which, let's be honest,
       | we didn't need a study to prove) and that--perhaps unusually, by
       | historical standards--the middle and upper-middle classes are as
       | miserable as everyone else, a fact that to me makes a strong
       | argument for the Marxist framework in which only two social
       | classes--the owning bourgeoisie, and the working proletariat--
       | actually matter (since Marx did not deny a middle class's
       | existence; he merely chose not to focus on it, believing--
       | correctly, present conditions suggest--it to be an innately
       | unstable status).
       | 
       | Misery isn't new. Oppression isn't new. War and poverty certainly
       | aren't new. What is happening on an unprecedented scale is the
       | re-proletarianization of people (the West's former middle class,
       | no longer needed in such number due to the end of the Cold War)
       | who thought themselves to be part of the bourgeoisie--who
       | believed their educational credentials and professional networks
       | (paper armor, it turns out) were "as good as" actually having
       | capital. Wrong, it turns out. Such people can be making
       | $200k/year one day and forced to do Scrum the next; and we're all
       | one medical emergency away from ruin. The collapse of a middle
       | class isn't nearly as bad a calamity as what nature and history
       | have thrown at the poor, but it is the kind of disaster one hears
       | about.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | In my experience no one is more miserable than the upper middle
         | class. For some reason most aren't able to figure out they
         | actually are rich.
        
       | sneak wrote:
       | It's possible that a majority of people were always depressed due
       | to the circumstances of their life, but now they all have access
       | to ~free computers and publishing, something that has changed
       | drastically for the first time ever in "recent decades".
        
       | YellowStuDregg wrote:
       | Also see this paper on the rise and fall of rationality in
       | language (previously shared on HN)
       | 
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2107848118
        
       | Jensson wrote:
       | "Everything is political, if you aren't helping us then you are a
       | part of the problem!"
       | 
       | Hostile advertisement messages such as this makes it really hard
       | to stay sane. Politicians and companies seems so eager pushing
       | people to the brink of insanity, and technology made them much
       | more efficient at that than ever before.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | mellosouls wrote:
       | This is a fascinating premise, both for it's core finding and -
       | even if that is debunked or unoriginal - another demonstration of
       | the potential revelations of large scale analysis of digitized
       | versions of both historical records and human activity generally.
        
       | trough wrote:
       | My own bias as a person interested and well read in history as a
       | science wants me to agree but there is a selection bias at work
       | that the authors of this study do not address to my satisfaction:
       | We are talking about PUBLISHED language. On the one hand,
       | published and distributed works are only a fraction of the
       | written literary works of an era and therefore only represents a
       | commercially viable subset. On the other hand, the commercial
       | viability is determined by the demand in the market of readers
       | which would suggest that their language analysis could be more
       | sound than not.
       | 
       | I THINK I'm reading more and more abstracts that show
       | similarities between our current societal climate and that of the
       | late 20s/early 30s of the last century. It will be academically
       | interesting to see what the continuation of the current inflation
       | and energy crisis which disproportionally hits the lower two
       | thirds of the western populace causes in the next 2 years. The
       | road to a substantial outburst - be it revolutions as a form of
       | inward-directed change or god beware war - is paved at least.
        
         | Sxubas wrote:
         | I think this section addresses that sort of bias (a limitation
         | of the used data):
         | 
         | >The availability of large-scale historical records of
         | published languages going back centuries may provide a unique
         | opportunity for the quantitative investigation of important
         | cultural and linguistic dynamics ("culturomics") (21), while
         | acknowledging limitations with respect to verifying hypotheses
         | and testing the causal mechanisms that underlie any
         | observations from these data.
         | 
         | I enjoyed that overall the article does not try to sell the
         | idea that there is/was an actual change in the society, but
         | rather showing how this analysis may be an indicator of that
         | and inciting future work on the topic.
        
         | darkerside wrote:
         | The bar for publication has dropped dramatically in the past
         | two decades
        
           | hahaitsfunny wrote:
           | 100%
        
         | permo-w wrote:
         | what would be a better subset then? if you take the set of all
         | computer-indexed written text, you would end up simply
         | measuring the rise of the capacity of the unwashed masses to
         | air their thoughts in permanent, public, usually informal form.
        
         | hahaitsfunny wrote:
         | Yeah, well much of accepted history from that time is up for
         | debate - from who funded the Germans and Soviets and their ties
         | to industry and banking in the US and Europe. The current
         | energy and inflation crises are caused in parts by similar
         | global forces pursuing agendas today. I don't think revolutions
         | will be forms of inward-directed change, but more as a result
         | of financing by global elites similar to how Lenin and
         | Trotsky's revolutions were funded by wealthy financiers in the
         | US and London. Kennedy's father also helped fund the Germany
         | war machine.
         | 
         | As you pointed out - we find ourselves in a similar political
         | climate but not because of the people who elected these
         | governments but because of the globalists who still run them
         | behind the scenes, just like they were doing prior, during and
         | after WWII.
        
           | penguino_pi wrote:
           | I would love to read more about the above claims.
           | 
           | Can you please point me in the direction of some foundational
           | books?
        
             | hahaitsfunny wrote:
             | Sure - https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fourth-Reich-Societies-
             | Threaten/...
             | 
             | Lots of sources and foundational books and researchers are
             | laid out in Marr's work.
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | Not readable without javascript. Does anyone have a link to a
       | static version please?
        
         | johnchristopher wrote:
         | Wait a minute...
         | 
         | I disabled Javascript (with an extension and by setting it off
         | from the browser's settings) and it's perfectly readable.
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | YMMV, but before you gave me the link [1] the original link
           | [2] yielded only this:
           | 
           | Please turn JavaScript on and reload the page. Checking your
           | browser before accessing www.pnas.org. Please enable Cookies
           | and reload the page. This process is automatic. Your browser
           | will redirect to your requested content shortly. Please allow
           | up to 5 seconds... Redirecting... DDoS protection by
           | Cloudflare Ray ID: 728----------
           | 
           | Despite not being fully Emacs compliant the link you gave me
           | worked in w3m just fine. Thanks! :)
           | 
           | [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325314/?rep
           | ort...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2102061118
        
             | jwilk wrote:
             | Both pages work for me without JS.
             | 
             | It seems CloudFlare hates you, and its only their DDoS
             | protection page that requires JS.
        
               | nonrandomstring wrote:
               | > It seems CloudFlare hates you
               | 
               | Trust me the feeling is absolutely mutual. :)
        
               | johnchristopher wrote:
               | Nope, using w3m I too get the same message. Also:
               | $ http --print=Hh
               | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2102061118
               | GET /doi/10.1073/pnas.2102061118 HTTP/1.1         User-
               | Agent: HTTPie/2.2.0         Accept-Encoding: gzip,
               | deflate         Accept: */*         Connection: keep-
               | alive         Host: www.pnas.org
               | HTTP/1.1 503 Service Temporarily Unavailable
               | Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2022 20:14:25 GMT         Content-Type:
               | text/html; charset=UTF-8         Transfer-Encoding:
               | chunked         Connection: close         X-Frame-
               | Options: SAMEORIGIN         Permissions-Policy:
               | accelerometer=(),autoplay=(),camera=(),clipboard-
               | read=(),clipboard-write=(),fullscreen=(),geolocation=(),g
               | yroscope=(),hid=(),interest-cohort=(),magnetometer=(),mic
               | rophone=(),payment=(),publickey-credentials-
               | get=(),screen-wake-lock=(),serial=(),sync-xhr=(),usb=()
               | Cache-Control: private, max-age=0, no-store, no-cache,
               | must-revalidate, post-check=0, pre-check=0
               | Expires: Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:01 GMT         Expect-CT:
               | max-age=604800, report-uri="https://report-
               | uri.cloudflare.com/cdn-cgi/beacon/expect-ct"         Set-
               | Cookie: __cf_bm=qv6dsgda4RMnNWeT1VIRHInJZ1zZUOR8nOf8QcEsp
               | lM-1657397665-0-Acn1NnHCTMFqAG0yu80qvOAMdxVlVdo8MN9/BQkNB
               | qBe0hiZukolLXQSpxCeK1BuVjjaYeSfvyy90NfVEAA1CGE=; path=/;
               | expires=Sat, 09-Jul-22 20:44:25 GMT; domain=.pnas.org;
               | HttpOnly; Secure; SameSite=None         Vary: Accept-
               | Encoding         Strict-Transport-Security: max-
               | age=15552000         Server: cloudflare         CF-RAY:
               | 7283b9ce3f93d488-BRU         alt-svc: h3=":443";
               | ma=86400, h3-29=":443"; ma=86400
               | 
               | And yet server sends the browser an HTML document with
               | enough in it to force the redirection even with JS
               | disabled.
        
               | jwilk wrote:
               | It works for me in Firefox and elinks, but not in w3m.
               | 
               | It doesn't work in curl either, even when I use the same
               | headers Firefox does.
        
         | mellosouls wrote:
         | PDF:
         | 
         | https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2102061118?downloa...
         | 
         | Alternative non-JavaScript link without some figures, etc:
         | 
         | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325314/?report...
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | thank you, both
        
             | johnchristopher wrote:
             | > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325314/?rep
             | ort...
             | 
             | Beware, there's no assurance it was written with Emacs.
        
         | xelxebar wrote:
         | Here's the PDF:
         | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325314/pdf/pna...
        
       | smitty1e wrote:
       | This came off as a dry cheap shot =>
       | 
       | "This pattern does not seem to be driven by changes in word
       | meaning, publishing and writing standards, or the Google Books
       | sample."
        
       | mikewarot wrote:
       | Given working class wages have been slowly declining in real
       | value since the late 1960s, it's understandable that the stress
       | that causes would lead to the effects identified.
       | 
       | We're on the downward slope of a one time pulse in stupendously
       | cheap and easy to reach fossil fuels. We're also running out of
       | easy to reach groundwater resources.
       | 
       | If the grown ups among us don't take over and start steering
       | things in the right direction, we're headed towards
       | civilizational collapse.
       | 
       | Reality is depressing, and apparently this study confirms it
       | showing up in our language.
        
       | bencollier49 wrote:
       | It has become much more socially acceptable to communicate ones
       | emotions in the last few decades. This, added to the fact that
       | female authors have tended to communicate differently (and I see
       | no attempt to control for that in my admittedly quick scan of the
       | write-up) makes me think that they may just be detecting a
       | cultural trend in favour of honest emotional self-expression.
        
       | jjt-yn_t wrote:
        
       | tgv wrote:
       | Too nonsensical to even consider.
       | 
       | The English indicator drops from 1914 to 1960. WW1? Great
       | depression? WW2? Nah, that doesn't depress us. Cold war, nuclear
       | threat? Life's great! 1980, the advent of word processors, more
       | personal, psychological literature, and a linguistic style closer
       | to the present? Now we're depressed!
       | 
       | It's beyond me how you can publish findings which are based on
       | correlations with correlations, and validations which took place
       | 100 year later, when other explanations aren't even mentioned.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | From a US perspective, I think there are major differences
         | between WWI/WWII and 1968/perhaps recent years.
         | 
         | In the WWs you had a society perhaps more structured and united
         | for a common national and patriotic cause.
         | 
         | In 1968 (since it's mentioned) and perhaps in recent years you
         | have a society that arguably is less structured and people
         | having issues with society itself and the state of the country.
         | 
         | It also seems to me that it was during the 70s that the US
         | started to feel that things and the country were going down.
         | 
         | I suppose there is a parallel in the UK, for instance. Things
         | were hard during WWII but people came together and had a sense
         | of purpose and of fighting for their homes.
         | 
         | But then factories close, you lose your job, inflation picks
         | up, society changes... now you may perhaps really feel
         | depressed.
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | Not really a fan of militarism, but WWII had a lot of people
           | working alongside a lot of other people they wouldn't usually
           | spend time with. And a desperate need to innovate new
           | technology and new industrial and managerial processes. So
           | there was unity in the face of a common threat.
           | 
           | Also, GI Bills allowed intelligent individuals to get an
           | education without worrying about debt _as well as_ discounted
           | mortgages and business loans.
           | 
           | That need dissipated after the 60s and there was more
           | emphasis on hedonism and competitive individual ambition.
           | Then in the 80s competitive _economic_ individualism started
           | to dominate everything else.
           | 
           | The result was a classic race to the bottom - with a few
           | extreme winners who are indulged and beatified, a productive
           | but often hamstrung professional underclass, and a huge
           | precariat of economic losers.
           | 
           | At the same time the media landscape started promoting
           | division and tribalism for profit.
           | 
           | So now we have a dysfunctional culture which is unable to
           | cope with challenges like Covid, gun violence, and climate
           | catastrophe because it has been groomed to be more emotional
           | than rational, and the tone has affected everyone from the
           | top down.
        
             | pessimizer wrote:
             | > WWII had a lot of people working alongside a lot of other
             | people they wouldn't usually spend time with.
             | 
             | To some extent, but the military was still segregated by
             | race.
        
             | nonrandomstring wrote:
             | > So now we have a dysfunctional culture which is unable to
             | cope with challenges like Covid, gun violence, and climate
             | catastrophe because it has been groomed to be more
             | emotional than rational, and the tone has affected everyone
             | from the top down.
             | 
             | The arc of cultural history you describe seems spot on. But
             | I don't think splitting between "emotional" and "rational"
             | is useful or even the root of what you describe.
             | 
             | Emotion is a kind of reason too, only it yields affect.
             | Much of what we reason out "emotionally" is the really
             | important stuff - who we marry, whether to have kids, when
             | to change jobs.
             | 
             | I'd rather say, if it's true, that the quality of emotive
             | and positivist thought has been equally corroded. I think
             | if you truly take on board the thrust of the Trilateral
             | Commission's action on the "Crisis of Democracy", the
             | attack on emotional literacy has been even more vicious,
             | and vital to the their aims, than the so-called "dumbing
             | down of education".
        
           | tgv wrote:
           | > From a US perspective, I think there are major differences
           | between WWI/WWII and 1968/perhaps recent years.
           | 
           | The UK's literary output is probably also included among the
           | English books of that period. It should show up, shouldn't
           | it?
           | 
           | > But then factories close, you lose your job, inflation
           | picks up, society changes... now you may perhaps really feel
           | depressed.
           | 
           | Then it should go down in the 90s, right?
        
             | uplifter wrote:
             | They paper says the English sample is from the United
             | States of America, U.K. publications are presumably
             | excluded.
        
         | mellosouls wrote:
         | _...when other explanations aren 't even mentioned._
         | 
         | I did a quick "find in page" and "war" is mentioned 22 times.
        
         | cycomanic wrote:
         | What do you mean? There are small effects for the depression
         | and WW2. I would argue that the nuclear threat and the cold war
         | really only started to have a significant impact on the overall
         | psyche of societies after the 70/80s. The peace movements
         | really only started in the early 80s (except for the opposition
         | to the Vietnam war which is actually reflected in the record).
         | The 50/60s were generally characterised by an broad optimism
         | and believe in the future (look at all the things they thought
         | we could do).
         | 
         | More generally you seem to dismiss the work largely because it
         | does not match your preconceived notions of what should have
         | been major effects. Maybe the question is to ask why they might
         | not have. Or at least bring up evidence that they had a great
         | impact on the language used.
        
           | prox wrote:
           | I also wonder what the effect is of effectively a much
           | richer/convenient overall population, and the ability to
           | reach what is basically the top in the Maslows hierarchy of
           | needs (self actualization) and how it maybe that many more
           | people write about their mental states. The amount of coaches
           | has boomed in the last decade!
        
         | permo-w wrote:
         | it's entirely possible that those events didn't have the
         | depressing effect you might expect. it's also possible that
         | you're right
        
         | rayiner wrote:
         | Because "social sciences" aren't science. These stories come up
         | on HN and there's always lots of smart left brain people trying
         | to puzzle through this as if it's not just based on reading
         | tarot cards.
        
           | palmetieri2000 wrote:
           | Do you include economics in this judgement?
        
             | rayiner wrote:
             | Macroeconomics, yes, but they're at least trying.
        
       | kryptiskt wrote:
       | Andrew Gelman wasn't impressed by the paper:
       | https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/07/03/historical...
       | 
       | "But they don't really have any measure of entire societies or
       | depression. The above note by Schmidt discusses why the Google
       | books collection cannot be characterized as a measure of entire
       | societies. There are also problems with the depression
       | measurement. Here's what it says in the PNAS article:
       | 
       |  _For example, the 3-gram "I am a" captures a labeling and
       | mislabeling distortion, regardless of its context or the precise
       | labeling involved ("lady," "honorable person," "loser," etc.).
       | These same n-grams were in earlier research shown to be
       | significantly more prevalent in the language of individuals with
       | depression vs. a random sample (17)._
       | 
       | Note 17 points to this preprint, which states:
       | 
       |  _Here, we show that individuals with a self-reported diagnosis
       | of depression on social media express higher levels of distorted
       | thinking than a random sample._
       | 
       | How do they define "distorted thinking"?
       | 
       |  _[W]e define a clinical lexicon of 241 n-grams that a panel of
       | clinical psychologists deemed to form a schema involved in the
       | expression of a particular type of distorted thinking according
       | to CBT theory and practice. For example, "I will never" would be
       | implicated in the expression of a cognitive distortions such as
       | Catastrophizing or Fortune-telling, whereas "I am a _" would be
       | used to express a Labeling and Mislabeling distortion._
       | 
       | This is like a parody of clinical psychology, reminiscent of
       | those sitcom moments when the busy suburban dad is persuaded to
       | go to a shrink, and everything he says on the couch is
       | interpreted as some sort of neurosis. Only this case, instead of
       | everything being a coded statement about his mother, everything's
       | a coded statement about a cognitive distortion. "I am a
       | statistician." "There you go with those Labeling and Mislabeling
       | distortions again!""
        
         | imoverclocked wrote:
         | Then the paper itself is an example of distorted thinking.
         | Given the prevalence of such forms of mass-analysis, I would
         | argue that the paper is at least ironically true.
        
           | ccvannorman wrote:
           | Maybe irony with a dash of truth as well, depending on how
           | many people reactively agree with / are angered by the [
           | obstensibly incorrect ] paper (thus becoming "distorted"
           | themselves.)
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | "whereby they think about themselves, the world, and the future
       | in overly negative and inaccurate ways."
       | 
       | I wonder how they ensure that the standards they set for accuracy
       | and the "right" amount of negativity don't have any bias or
       | inaccuracy. For example, someone's language patterns may match
       | the N-grams because they are being consistent with the language
       | patterns they were taught or exposed to in society, but their
       | actual thinking could be much more nuanced.
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | The methodology is interesting, though I'd simply call it
       | "thematic analysis". Psycholinguistics is much more complex than
       | trigram frequency though, as simple spam filtering proves. I
       | suppose the schtick here is "Big Data", with a corpus that
       | earlier researchers could never approach "by hand".
       | 
       | I didn't find much new here at the conceptual level. This is what
       | "Zeitgeist" means, and many epochs have been characterised as
       | joyous or depressive.
       | 
       | However the framing of the study is important for me, because I
       | broadly agree with the hypothesis that we are in a depressive
       | epoch. In fact we are in an interregnum, which themselves go
       | through phases in the gap between "a world that is dead and one
       | still waiting to be born".
       | 
       | Why might the psyche of the Anglosphere be battered more than
       | other groups or nations? Sure, we've had industrial revolution,
       | slavery, two world wars, decades of proxy wars, environmental and
       | financial disasters... but is our lot any worse than the long
       | suffering people of Russia, China or Africa who carry traumatic
       | histories?
       | 
       | I would argue that what ails "the West" is a loss of sense of
       | positive future. That is actually a symptom of clinical
       | depression too. The Fukuyaman conceit of the "end of history" is
       | actually a dark and troubling stuckness. For me the prevalence of
       | words like "inevitable", "ubiquitous" and "inescapable",
       | especially around technology, are markers of a profound loss of
       | creative vision and optimism.
        
         | Mezzie wrote:
         | > I would argue that what ails "the West" is a loss of sense of
         | positive future. That is actually a symptom of clinical
         | depression too. The Fukuyaman conceit of the "end of history"
         | is actually a dark and troubling stuckness. For me the
         | prevalence of words like "inevitable", "ubiquitous" and
         | "inescapable", especially around technology, are markers of a
         | profound loss of creative vision and optimism.
         | 
         | Agree. In addition to creative vision and optimism, I would add
         | a sense of agency has almost completely vanished from the
         | Anglosphere starting with Gen X. The average person (and now a
         | disturbing portion of those with power) believes that there is
         | no way they can influence the trajectory of their life.
         | 
         | This is not good. That's where desperate, angry people come
         | from.
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | > no way they can influence the trajectory of their life.
           | This is not > good. That's where desperate, angry people come
           | from.
           | 
           | Indeed. It's also the antithesis of what I understand to be
           | the "American Dream", perhaps synonymous with "freedom" in
           | our time. The kind of thing people will fight wars to hold on
           | to. Really not good. So in my opinion worth courageously
           | fighting for *now" rather than waiting for things to get that
           | bad again.
        
         | themisto wrote:
         | Love learning about words and ideas like "interregnum". It's
         | uncomfortable to think of a global societal interregnum -- at
         | what point we may be in it, where it will end up, and if things
         | will be "better" on the other side.
        
           | nonrandomstring wrote:
           | It's a good concept isn't it. I prefer it to talking about a
           | "crisis" of this or that - because the idea that a society or
           | humankind might "Just not know what's going on any more" is
           | less loaded than a "crisis" which implies some correct way of
           | being that we deviated from. But beware. There's a half-dozen
           | varying accounts of what it really means and when our journey
           | into the wilderness started. By Nietzsche's account it was
           | the 1900s.
        
             | uplifter wrote:
             | > By Nietzsche's account it was the 1900s.
             | 
             | I'm confused by this because Nietzsche died in 1900. Was it
             | a prophecy? Or did you mean the 1800s?
        
               | nonrandomstring wrote:
               | > Or did you mean the 1800s?
               | 
               | Yes, silly me. He was talking about the times he saw
               | around him (late 1800s) rather than prophesising. In
               | Beyond Good and Evil he poses the open question "what
               | sacred games shall we have to invent?". It was Freud and
               | Jung who were possessed with visions of awful wars to
               | fill the vacuum.
        
       | kingkawn wrote:
       | Rather than society being more depressed etc, society is more
       | willing to directly address depression. This is a side effect of
       | basic material needs being solved, for a wide swath of the book
       | writing world anyway. We're just looking for the next big jump in
       | standard of living and all the low hanging fruit is inside us.
        
       | stainablesteel wrote:
       | I didn't read the full article but ctrl + f indicates they didn't
       | comment on neither the editing nor publishing process
       | 
       | do the same analysis for online fanfiction and see if that flows
       | the same, publishers have a heavy hand in what they want to
       | publish a lot of the time. taking a sample from the online
       | community should be less biased
       | 
       | you might even be able to visualize what different publishers are
       | biased for if they collected that information, but alas, this is
       | more information I don't see in the articles figures
        
       | astrange wrote:
       | Is "cognitive distortions" a standard term? I thought those were
       | the dungeons in Persona 5.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | It is: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_distortion
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | > Individuals with depression are prone to maladaptive patterns
       | of thinking, known as cognitive distortions, whereby they think
       | about themselves, the world, and the future in overly negative
       | and inaccurate ways.
       | 
       | I am convinced for many reasons that social media is a major
       | player in many mental health issues, but I wouldn't pin 100% of
       | the blame there. For a start, the effect predates mainstream
       | social media. But more importantly, the financial and political
       | rewards for making people think negatively have never been
       | higher. I think once the corporate/government/activist
       | influencers caught onto the "make them feel bad, then offer them
       | an alternative" trick, we were destined to see the hockey stick
       | even if Twitter had never happened.
        
       | jzdziarski wrote:
       | Fascinating study. It would carry more currency with me if the
       | ngrams used were learned through ML and corpus training rather
       | than heuristics. It is assumed these ngrams are particularly
       | useful markers today. The significance in their absence doesn't
       | seem to be part of the research. When there is such dramatically
       | "off the chart" data such as this, you need to start looking
       | under the hood at other factors. Studying individual authors
       | would be a good start. Other factors may also include the
       | editorial process. Publishers tend to have common nuances they
       | like to conform to. Could the editorial process explain why some
       | of these nuances are widespread? It's also worth considering that
       | technical language (computing, for example) made great leaps
       | around this same time period and bled into common parlance.
       | Social media, which is cited here only as a loose correlation,
       | also altered the brevity of writing, which changed how we use and
       | communicate language - but it's a far stretch to call these
       | subtle changes distortions, at least beyond letting Jack Dorsey
       | fuck up our use of language. The authors argue that the meaning
       | of these ngrams hasn't changed, but their application sure has.
       | Overall it feels like a great area to study, and as good science
       | does, presents more questions than it does answers. There is much
       | more to explore here though before we can conclude the entire
       | world is depressed. I am not an expert in linguistics, but I do
       | feel as though there is a modern element missing from this
       | research.
        
         | sideshowb wrote:
         | > Studying individual authors would be a good start.
         | 
         | Or even taking a random sample of the ngrams to manually verify
         | their usage hasn't changed over time, plus a random sample of
         | texts to check that depressive sentiments weren't previously
         | expressed in different language.
         | 
         | It's a great start, though.
        
         | cycomanic wrote:
         | > Fascinating study. It would carry more currency with me if
         | the ngrams used were learned through ML and corpus training
         | rather than heuristics.
         | 
         | I would have significantly less confidence. How would you learn
         | such a set? You then would need a set of texts that are clearly
         | labeled from people with cognitive dissonance and without. I
         | don't think such a set exists. Also note that the n grams have
         | been tested previously for individuals (ref 17 in the paper)
         | 
         | Your post points to another interesting line of research (and
         | maybe that is what you meant), can we find correlations between
         | the language used in previous periods of unrest, e.g. in
         | Germany the period of WW2 and other periods.
         | 
         | > It's also worth considering that technical language
         | (computing, for example) made great leaps around this same time
         | period and bled into common parlance.
         | 
         | The authors specifically mention this, but it should bias the
         | results in the other direction, i.e. technical work has less
         | prevalence of the ngrams according to the authors (I'm unsure
         | if they tested this).
         | 
         | >. Overall it feels like a great area to study, and as good
         | science does, presents more questions than it does answers.
         | There is much more to explore here though before we can
         | conclude the entire world is depressed.
         | 
         | Note that the authors are very cautious about making any such
         | claims and in fact acknowledge the question if applying these
         | markers to societies is valid
         | 
         | > I am not an expert in linguistics, but I do feel as though
         | there is a modern element missing from this research.
         | 
         | I'm not sure I understand. To me it seems like quite solid
         | research (although I admit I don't know much about CDS
         | markers...) without using some hype methods like ML just for
         | the sake of it.
        
       | robg wrote:
       | Difficult to disentangle the fact that the n-grams talking about
       | these topics have become highly profitable as an industry unto
       | itself. Not just click bait and doom scrolling of recent years
       | but the books, TV shows, and especially medications that talk
       | about and claim to address the ill effects of modern life. Prozac
       | Nation was published in 1992. Oprah was launching in 1986. People
       | have been getting paid and made focusing on these topics in ways
       | it's difficult to find a historical precedent. And let's not
       | forget that depression as a medical condition was marketed by a
       | Pharma company with the first SSRI cleared by the FDA in 1987.
        
       | Flocular wrote:
       | Sentences that apparently mark cognitive distortion: "The quality
       | of our product is not acceptable yet.", "I won't go to this
       | meeting, because I feel nauseous.", "Children should go to
       | school."
       | 
       | I can't say I agree.
        
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